protests over the controversial project have turned violent in recent weeks with dozens arrested. opec has pushed off the issue of revit -- whether iran or iraq will push off cuts. the oil cartel has to for the matter to ministers who meet next -- next week. an effort to stabilize oil prices. most americans are opposed to donald building a border wall between the u.s. and mexico. according to the university poll, 55 oppose a border wall the 42 supported. 50% supported pathway to citizenship and voters are overwhelmingly in support of more infrastructure spending. president obama had a person -- important business this afternoon. his final thanksgiving day turkey pardoning.

making sure two turkeys, tater and top, will not be in the menu. took time to think americans for his two terms in office. global news 24 hours a day pass by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. joe: i am joe weisenthal. 30 minutes away from the u.s. records from the -- straight days joe: the question is what did you miss? scarlet: relatively soon if they continue to show and improving

economy with some explicitly calling -- decade.in more than a decade traders now pricing in a 100% probability in december. donald trump made more decisions in his cabinet. south carolina nikki haley announces u.s. and you and ambassador. let's get you caught up on where the major indexes are. abigail doolittle standing by. abigail: not a lot of action for u.s. stocks going into the close of thanksgiving. we are on record watch. the telestrating above 19,000 on paper. we see the s&p 500 and the nasdaq down ever so slightly competing with the decline on the very same day.

do have action, we look at bonds, currencies, a lot of action. the selloff in treasuries continue. we look at a rise in the yield. earlier today, highest level since july 2015. on the expectation the fed is likely to raise rates in december. economic data. we take a look at the economic the bloomberg dollar index earlier today hitting a record high since its inception in 2004. we have gold down 2% for the second day in a row. that.s bloomberg, and this

is a five-year chart of gold. what we have going on is when the 50 day moving average goes below and signals the bearish .omentum is up we see a large decline suggesting a big decline should be ahead yet for gold. rates rise higher. down today, over the last year, cold is outperforming stocks, gold and yellow. winneris the biggest over the last year. whether gold could hang onto those gains above stocks. >> not with that cross hanging over it. thank you so much, abigail doolittle. joe: the surge the dollar may prove to be a red flag. president donald trump's's

policy mix. the director of global strategy, great to have you back on the show. surge in the dollar. what are the ramifications of that? excited about growth but it has ramifications for the global economy. see the impact of the stronger dollar playing out? >> it is playing out obviously in the emerging markets, particularly in the local currency markets. it does make financial conditions tighter to have a very large amount of their debt in dollars. you are seeing a lot of pressure

, but it remains to be seen whether we will -- whether that will translate. it brings up a lot of questions and howump's coalition much they want a strong dollar. >> the treasury always has a statement with a strong policy. the service, rhetoric. said,verything joe just the international settlement may could beis our considered a new fear index. it should not the a clear sign across markets. >> there is something to that. there is a tendency to go all the way back to 2008. there has clearly been a rising dollar and a failure of covering disparity.

and that is a reduction of the risk-taking capacity of banks in the aftermath of the -- , iyou do see a rollback iink the other point here is have a bigger macro view, which is that if you are a large exported to the united states, obviously, trade barriers and things like that, and you are predominately in your own currency, this is not necessarily for you. that is across markets. number of true of a emerging markets, including the most important ones. they do see some pressure on the liability side as a result of weakness.

this can be somewhat overstated. very heavilyfunds, backedd in mortgaged securities. all of this post traumatic stress stuff. joe: i want to what you said in the first question about how the dollar disproportionally hits various aspects of the trump coalition. obviously, people talk about the light worked -- white working-class. college-educated, if you will get his economic policies and how they might be playing out, how do you see the different aspects of the coalition coming together? , --he big one here >> labor force participation for primate white men, you can see

it down a lot. and isas bottomed picking back up again. there is an argument, that is key to all of the voters who voted for obama, then voted for sanders, and ultimately, the election was in part by not that many votes in the upper midwest. i think one of the questions is where they estimated to a substantial degree. combination of aggressive fiscal expansion, the on fed policyct in interest-rate and inflation, what does it mean for that particular segment of the coalition? i think it is hard to do all of these things simultaneously, and

what i have joked about is trump politics depends on yellen. there are two fundamental features. get the inflation surge or you get a rising breakeven and potentially negative bond markets. theso think the idea that monetary conditions, that the fed responds to dollar strength by not hiking as much, i think both of those things need to work for that portion of the coalition to get what it wants. what kind of monetary space or flexibility or freedom is there really when you have got these plans for spending? >> i think the participation

, it has expanded and we need to see it expand further if we do get a fiscal expansion on the scale that trump is talking about. how many deficit hall solved in that is and so on, something that is critical. one thing that is a problem is the dollar by itself increases the ability to import inflation for the rest of the world. but trade barriers reduce that. you have an interesting contradiction among the importance of the agenda. we'll see how it plays out. joe: you will stay with us. the u.s., the success of the populists. what they have their sights on next. this is bloomberg. ♪

joe: if we going to the bloomberg, we have a chart that crept up lately, still fairly low compared to where we had been. gdp on the downtrend for decades. you can see the light line generally trending down. but as the big concern because of the vote on december 4? is there any prospect in the cards regardless of italy thriving again in the eurozone anytime soon? >> etiquette has to do a lot of hard work inside the eurozone.

italy could thrive outside the eurozone. if you look at this chart -- >> let's pull it back up. 5123. see a long sellout in 2003. which is obviously toxic for debt dynamics. what has happened is a slow and steady and that exciting gdp, which finally took nominal gdp above fields. in the course of the last month, two things happened. a global fund selloff. italian -- specific which potentially puts italy on a nasty track. the question i always wonder about when i hear the talk of

maybe we should leave, how much more fiscal room italy which has just exited the euro printed by the market, given underlying structural fragility and the nature and the size of that stock and everything. the benefit of what would be a pretty marginal gain, exchange maybe the timey, exchange rate is maybe 5%, strong. there is a marginal gain on that flat -- on that front what you would lose so much flexibility in terms of financial expansion. the most important thing mario draghi has done his turn almost all back into great products. a very low credit risk. there is a lot of

work to be done. unlike spain, a classical and bust cycle, italy has been staggering for the past 25 years. so much needs to be done. out in: you pointed france, you have the reverse. if you go to my bloomberg here, french, it is below the 10 year yield. they have elections coming up as well. you know what, we reversed it. pardon me. was get rid of this. >> that is actually part of -- i have always maintained france is perhaps the biggest gainer from the eu for a couple of reasons. one is because the country is 30%, is more ripe than anyone else. this is very important, but france gained in e.u. membership.

we bring the nukes, you bring the trade surplus. french debt dynamics. -- for someone who , --s >> probably cannot win but now we are too scared. is that a fair assessment?

>> key understanding the nature of what people respond to an what gets them out to vote. a probably wins but he does have , he has the ability to leave rhetoric against him. >> political risk will be a key theme in 2017. here is another chart you can have brought in. risk ise political compiled, it has been climbing.

why are we not seeing this show up in equities, but we do see this appear at some point. euro yen, the dollar has gone down. dollars are actually outperforming. the yen has been the biggest majorthe status as a capital order. off it is not quite so risk perhaps as people think because the yen is the true safety currency, the true #of risk. >> that has -- is how it has worked. impact oneing the

sprint but there are also yield components. is not a broad-based, cataclysmic risk off. fascinating conversation. glad to have you on the show. scarlet: donald trump selling energy shares back in july. between 15 and $50,000. the energy transfer is constructing the controversial to cut access pipeline. quarterly earnings eat analyst estimates. highsories are at record but cost-cutting helped you weather the storm. profit for the last 16 quarters. .irbus is getting ready

the aerospace giant was to eliminate duplication between its main playmaking unit and the rest of the company. airbus it's making cuts between public affairs legal and human resources. that is your business flash update. joe: up next, the slump in treasuries this month is breaking all previous limits. you look at one gains that show the moves have gone too far, too fast. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: small caps are winning on a 14 day winning streak. how often does that happen? they put together this fantastic chart. the dotted line on the far right

is where we are now. last time it happened is back in 1996. if you go back, the previous .ime is 1988 this is 1984. had 114 post a losing streak since 1900 or since the index started in 1980. the question now is what happens next. they tend to build on the winning streak, build on the games. this chart shows a one-year performance after each of those winning streaks. it has never been less than a 1 -- 10% advance. everything following those previous 14 days winning streaks 10%.t rise up by at least went on to advance 13%, it gained another therapist -- 34%.

pretty incredible numbers here and that bodes well for what comes next year. were 1982 alls over again? how crazy would that be? scarlet is looking at something doing great and i am looking at something doing very bad and that is treasuries. index, up andond down is a measure of momentum. looking at the end, you can see that treasuries have sold off at a speed we have never seen before. the chart goes back to 1973. we have never seen a selloff quite as intense as what we have seen over the last three weeks. convinced they could never selloff that it would be interesting to see if the selloff could rouse people from their --

there is no guarantee an oversold market would snap back. record close,or a the down the s&p has turned positive as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ scarlet: moments away from the closing bell had the s&p 500 and

dow closing at record highs. this is my 14th straight day. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. welcome all of our viewers who are on twitter and you can watch coverage on twitter every weekday. ♪ scarlet: we begin with the market minutes, the dow and s&p 500 finishing at record highs. turning green in the last five minutes. the russell 2000 finishing for 14th straight day, the longest stretch of gains. incredible, and all on the back of better economic data. and the fed minutes which confirmed everything people were expecting. joe: initially, they sold off on the good data, worried about the rate hikes. scarlet: when you look at stocks

check out the imap. seven out of 11 sectors finishing in the grain and in terms of this performance, take a look. we are looking at telecommunications as the best gainers, the decliners including utilities. those interest rates sensitive sectors not doing well as the dollar is continuing to gain. in terms of individual names, lily has been a loser all day. that is for its alzheimer's drug, bringing down the stock 11% today. urban outfitters, which we give you indication that it would fall, now on a post election rally. and sales missing estimates. deere forecast for because of cost cuts, a big gainer.

taking advantage of the rates while they can. it will use proceeds to reduce debt. joe: government bonds, taking a look at u.s. rates, those numbers are red, but they are up . 1.13 on the two-year, and on the continues to be the story. it treasury selloff, the two-year yields getting close to their highest level. that was around 2010. higher rates is the story. taking a look at the german two-year yields, they fell to a record low yesterday it popped up earlier today. stuff about ecb making more german debt available to borrow. then they ended up roughly flat on the day. take a look, deep into negative territory on the short-term german bonds. scarlet: such a contrast to the u.s. and durable goods report lifting

the dollar. it should be more aggressive in 2017. and the highest in more than a decade. the yen going past 112, getting to about 113 for the high today. versus theo, again dollar, 10551. we saw earlier. and the brazilian riau extending its lost, the biggest decline are. -- decliner. the central bank did not step in to help it. joe: commodities started with oil and gold, red across the board. gold is at the bottom. not moving very much. and oil falling. it happened right after we got the strong economic data at 8:30 a.m. eastern.

of you that you do not have to hold the safe haven and higher rates are coming. look at a longer-term iron ore futures, it has been on . tear close to highs for the year. so much momentum in the industrial metal, who perhaps for the u.s., due to china. keep an eye on that. 109% year over year. scarlet: those are the market minutes. earlierking about gold and i wanted to look into my terminal to talk about what is driving gold. and one answer, the real interest rates, this is diving. the white line is the five-year interest rates. real interest rates going up doing this because of the economy and there is a strong connection going back for some time between real interest rates in gold.

to talk about that and commodities and the global economy and everything else, paul mcnamara, joining us from london. thank you for joining us and staying up this evening in london. the dominant theme since the election has been the matter -- march up and interest rates. how do you see that playing out for the entire world? hit?ill get the most paul: nice for the developed market people. the rest of us -- joe: what about the perspective from the emerging markets? paul: it has to do with the world trade organization, the cancellation of ttp, the rhetoric that the new administration is coming in on is anti-trade. so we have been focused on what does this mean for the countries

like china and mexico, which produces a lot of manufactured goods that the president, president-elect trump's constituency are concerned about. even in emerging markets, the dollar has been a huge concern. a margin market interest rates not really enjoying the benefit of the great treasury rally of the last five years, so we are less worried about the selloff. it is the dollar and trade policy that we are focused on. scarlet: how does a strong dollar effect the formation of trade policy? does it give the u.s. government more or less leverage the negotiations? paul: it gives them less, because we have seen these concerns about nafta, about the mexican imports and the 45% tear of -- tariff. on a crude level, you are looking at a 20% -- of the

mexican content of u.s. imports from mexico. the dollar does, a stronger dollar, and it is not just about trade policy is about the data we have from the u.s. recently. asis possible that it is not simple as hiking tariffs or cutting trade agreements. it can be difficult to keep those imports out. joe: it is interesting you bring up trade policy, because my impression when we speak with investors here, is they are focused on the tax message and they are interested in fiscal stimulus and they are hoping that there will be rolled back, and when you bring up the trade stuff, they think they will get to it down the road. they are not too worried or concerned. he has said that they will withdraw from tpp on day one. what are you looking on beyond the tpp from trade policy out of this administration?

what moves and plans do you expect to see? paul: as little as possible, if we cannot get quite -- you know come at to the point of building globalization, which has been positive for a emerging markets. americaeen negative for , that is what the electorate feels. trade policy i think has been a target, because it is an area that the u.s. president can do a lot about. congress will need to approve but mr.e treaties, trump can tear up a lot of the existing treaties. and that is a reason why it has been so important. the other way in which the u.s. really affects emerging markets is by the dollar, so when it is strong, you get major currencies stronger against the other currencies, so we are less focused on the interest rates

and u.s. consumption of commodities, since china came along and it is more about the dollar and the globalization that has been key mover behind to the imf and world bank and -- ofles of the supporting emerging markets. loses interest. in pursuing globalization and you see this has a fix on the existing institutions and generally sort of killing momentum. paul: i think it is more than just killing momentum, it could knock economic development back. it will vary across countries and in terms of impact, but huge amounts of globalization and the rise of it in poorer countries has been driven not just by exported to the u.s., but more the u.s.'s role as the guardian of the wto and all of these

organizations. and i think that is what is in the balance right now. .oe: ok, thank you stay with us after the break and we will talk about turkey and other emerging markets specifically. scarlet: a headline, the wall street journal has on their website, saying that the billionaire investor is expected to be named the new commerce secretary. we will be talking about the question on trade policy. joe: this is a crucial position. scarlet: wilbur ross will be the gentleman, according to the wall street journal. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ scarlet: -- >> waistcoat differs were news. president-elect donald trump is

continuing to fill his cabinet for the incoming administration. he tapped small choice advocate for education secretary. ben carson offered and accepted the position of secretary of housing and urban development, according to the wall street journal. and also reporting that wilbur ross is expected to be named commerce secretary. earlier today, his team announced nikki haley for u.s. ambassador to the united nations. and the former cia director says he would be willing to serve in the trump administration. petraeus told bbc radio that if asked, the only response can become a yes mr. president. his name has been floated for a possible candidate for secretary of state. ran's supremei leader is one of the u.s. about sanctions. he said iran would not stand idly by as sanctions are

reimposed. the house of representatives are expected to extend the it -- the sanctions act. and an unusually late-season tropical storm is brewing over the caribbean, just off of central america. possibleding for landfall as a hurricane for costa rica, which has not seen such a storm since reliable record-keeping began in 1851. heavy rain from the system was blamed for three deaths in panama. in costa rica, they are ordering the evacuation from the coast. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney collins, this is bloomberg. scarlet: emerging markets stock falling for the first time in three days as the prospect for higher it just rates continues. and still with us is paul

mcnamara, and he focuses on emerging markets. i want to start with turkey, there is a chart on the terminal, because their currency has been the worst performing since the election. you can see that the dollar and lira are in blue. you can see the dollar increasing in value. the white line shows volatility, reflecting the potential -- markets are pricing it. it is almost as high as mid-july when the military in turkey attempted a coup and failed. when it comes to turkey, the pledging of their currency, will enforce the central bank's and and caused them to raise inflation? time,i think most of the we would have said yes. in 2014, we had the meeting of the turkish central bank and the massive rate hike in an attempt

to turn around the leader and it has happened a few times in the past. now, the politicians outside of the central bank, and the president, they are very clear they do not want higher it just rates. there was an announcement by the president about how bad the high interest rates are. and after the queue and with those purges afterward, you are right, if you do something that might displease the president -- u.s.there is talk in the that there could be tension between the central bank and the president down the road, so what do you do economically when you have a state calling out the central bank? which the president of turkey likes to do frequently. is, ii think part of it probably should not say anything about the u.s., but some of the advisers ideasis

are unorthodox. for example, wherever you have high inflation you have higher just rates, so that must mean higher just rates are causing inflation. this comes back to what we said earlier, that key concern is that the more populist are going toyou see experts and people who have experience in these areas, whether or not i or any other investor agree with them, they kind of know what they are doing. whereas i think the feeling that something with interest-rate not been in the hands of an independent central banks and less at the whim of politicians, can be damaging to the health of the economy. joe: speaking of populist politicians and those around them, scarlet noted the wall street journal reporting that wilbur ross could be the nominee for commerce secretary. wilbur ross has said sympathetic

things about donald trump's trade policies and says there is too big of a deficit and we should try to do trade deals that narrow it. is this the right thing? not your opinion on wilbur ross, theis it right to focus on deficit and judge the economy that way? paul: i think you have to take into account the external balance, the balance of the u.s. has strengthened since the shale world came through. and the united kingdom where they have a deficit of 6%, that is a cause for concern. it is hard to put too much emphasis on trade deals because the u.k. and u.s. are not particularly open economies, they have similar setups that could be germany or france, they manage to keep external balances in better order. i would say concern about the balance of payments is

appropriate. i think trying to tweak the trade deals in order to manipulate the balance would give cause for concern. on the other hand, given some of the other appointments we have seen, we could do worse than somebody that has a great deal of experience. scarlet: we will see how that plays out. the wall street journal reporting that wilbur ross could be nominated as commerce secretary. you are favorable on emerging economy debt, are you in favor of local currency or strong currency? aul: hard currency has done better over the longer term. it is hard to be bullish on hard currency if you are concerned about treasuries. plenty of reasons to think that over time the u.s. curve is going to move higher and it has been a long and driving

performance, half of the performance of the main dollar index has come from the long and of debt, which accounts for a third of the actual composition of the index. on the other hand, the local currencies are more sensitive in the short-term, they have given up more since the election and they tend to be more volatile. so i think it comes down to how you feel about global growth, which would help local currency, and how you feel about the treasury curve, because there is concern about u.s. treasuries and you don't want your own hard currency there. joe: when you are on here exactly a year ago, you were favorable to brazil win nobody liked it and they got off to a fantastic start for 2016. we have not spoken about brazil much, what is your assessment of things there now? paul: the problem at the moment and what toar trade

invest in. it has been hit hard, so less favorable than mexico and china, does not compete with the u.s. heartland with manufactured goods. they are still running a traitor circle and they have high interest rates, so we think the fundamentals are sound, but not much to step out -- snip at there. there is concern about risk and the stronger dollar, because it is not a high level of foreign ownership and they are bound to be vulnerable. , great toaul mcnamara have you on. foodight have noticed the crisis has been falling. up next, we round up the best chart ahead of thanksgiving. scarlet: and taking a look at the george washington bridge, you can imagine the traffic is

atrocious. people trying to get out of new york and new jersey and plan their commute for the holidays come the one of four crossings from new york into new jersey. if you need to get going, this is an indication -- joe: it is too late. scarlet: happy thanksgiving. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ i'm scarlet fu and we are doing a deep dive before thanksgiving and we are looking at retail since it is one of the traditions of thanksgiving. turkey, football and shopping. you can follow the following charts with the function at the bottom of the screen. it was pointed out earlier, this is a look at how retailers perform around the holidays. xrt,ill see a map of the

checking the retail spectre. the different columns are monthly performances and what you have for november is we for to see gains in the xrt november and degree and is indicating gains and red for losses. then a selloff for december, so to the right of the green column and then you start at the beginning of the year, going all the way back to the left-hand side, you can see they give up also comeanuary and back and rally again in february. that is maybe when they have quarterly results and they get a bump up and we see how they perform for the holiday season. joe: january 2014 was bad. scarlet: down 9.4%. joe: then back up in february. speaking of buying stuff and

thanksgiving, looking at the cost of food for homes. we get this chart which is the cost of inflation -- and deflation, exactly right. looking at the price of -- 2.3%s, down to .3% and have fallen into negative territory since late 2015. and as a scarlet said, normally you have this during a recession . now we see it, the good rowingion, drawing -- gor wages and more food at home. let's take a look at chart showing turkeys and how much they cost at various places. you will not be surprised to see the most expensive turkey, this is all ingredients, it is at whole foods. then fresh market, i've never been there. bottom,look at the

walmart and target is where you expect to see the lowest prices. great thing about america, there is a range of different options. scarlet: which grocery did you get your turkey? joe: we got it at a local store. scarlet: not even on the chart. i delegated the turkey to my husband. joe: where did he get it? scarlet: whole foods. joe: convenient. do it online. scarlet: there is a premium for laziness. [laughter] scarlet: coming up, the u.s. stock market is gathering momentum of like -- unlike any other time, but are there signs of overheating? this is bloomberg. seeing is believing, and that's why

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you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. scarlet: let's get a recap of today's market action. the s&p and dow closing at pullingighs, the nasdaq up as well, extending is advanced to a 14th straight day. the catalyst for today's advanced which started off with a declin, was the durable good orders report, which show the federal reserve will likely raise rates in the summer and perhaps also pick up the pace in 2017. joe: it looks like december is a lock, and we saw higher rates across the curb. scarlet: meantime, let's get to courtney collins of the first word news. up, a formerst french legionnaire has been

named as a key figure in the paris terror attacks. of three islamic state figures designated as terrorist by u.s. governments this week that there is disagreement in the intelligence community over his possible role in the attacks that killed 130 people last november. administration is forcing refiners to use a record amount biofuel next year. it was announced that refiners must use 19.3 billion gallons of renewable fuel next year. oft includes 15 million traditional corn-based ethanol. if the above levels the epa proposed in may, and also above requirements. erdogan is tightening criticism of economic policymakers and bankers and threatening intervention. he made his remarks on the eve of a central bank interest rate decision. for monetary officials it is a choice of defending the lira or defending a

leader. obama's approval rating now stands at 57%, his highest since september, 2009, according to a new administrati. favorability ratings for democrats are at 81%, down 10 points from late october. that is the lowest months they have given their party and more than a decade. and another earthquake has hit japan near fukushima. no tsunami damage has been reported. no damage has yet been reported that the second quake to the area last week. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney collins. this is bloomberg. scarlet: thank you. mentioned, the dow and s&p closed at record highs today. joining us to review his favorite charts of the week -- what did you find? >> i found something i don't

typically dabble in. there's one i like a lot. joe: everyone's a while, no one can resist technical. >> if you look at him across the swath of companies it makes more sense. you how i built this. you go to your bloomberg and go to weib, world equity index breadth. it will show you all the big benchmark indexes. click through to rsi, and boom. the top panel here, moving averages. it will show you all the big benchmark indexes. on the bottom, the actual relative strength. this read a portion, that means 23% of the s&p is trading above value on the rsi, which indicates that if you go by this measure it's overbought. but here's the thing, look at

all the dates. days where at least 50% of the benchmark is trading oversold. so it kind of goes back -- a condition of overboughtness does it you anything about the short-term. >> exactly. what i did as i took all the other instances of the past decade when you have that many days of overbought levels in the market, and in the short-term it doesn't tell you much. in fact, it might show yet you have a lot of momentum. on average it will underperform all other stretches of 30-60 days, so perhaps it indicates it is poised to stall out. scarlet: that is interesting, especially since dan curtis gave in previoust -- instances, the index have gained from the following 12 months, at

least 10%. remarkable stuff. >> very interesting. i have been watching this closely. particulartries in within the s&p 500, financials and industrials. i have a chart here -- this is not so much technical, people looking at estimates versus where they are trading. the blue line you are looking at in the s&p 500 industrials relative to where analysts say the companies will be 12 months from now. it's a ratio. when the number gets to the red line, it means they are passed it. theyu look at financials, are both for the first time since 2009 trading above those levels. so, guess what? analysts aren't always right. however, when you look at this, the fact that they are now already above for the market

was, either there needs to be a recalibration of the estimates or perhaps you have gone too far. joe: speaking of financials, this is a chart i was showing earlier. this is the community index. we'll talk about these banks as much. qaba, up 20% in the last month. absolutely extraordinary. and the thinking here, of course, is that if there's a rollback of regulation, regulations hurt the community banks more than the big banks because of the money they had to shell out to comply was damaging. joe: and even on both sides of the political spectrum, some of the regulations on the small banks may be too onerous. hence some of the optimism. >> when you combine that with the fact that we have totally

repriced our rate expectations for the next year, if you rely on the loan business and you are lending money out, as opposed to some of the bigger banks that have all the capital market businesses. if your primary revenue stream is lending money, and you went from having no rate hikes to five or seven or who knows, that the conversation. you have a lot of domestic stocks. aldermanic, thank you so much -- all of her reddick, thank you so much. joe: coming up, president-elect donald trump has fired two shots at illegal immigration within two weeks of his victory. more on his plan to rein in scaled-down worker programs, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

have all the capital market

joe: "what'd you miss?" president-elect donald trump's promises to crack down on illegal immigration and build a wall on the southern border drew the most attention during his campaign. but he may be able to move more quickly on legal immigration issues pertaining to skilled guestworkers. joining us for more is so local poor in washington. lots of attention was paid to illegal immigration, to the wall, to the southern border. that is part of the immigration,

the broader immigration issue. what did he do on legal immigration? >> that's true. what he proposed to on illegal immigration was to ramp up deportation on the border wall, and it is likely he will need congress to sign off on both those things. but what he can do immediately, on the much lesser noted part, to crackdown on illegal immigration. he's nominated jeff sessions for attorney general. he is a longtime anti-immigration crusader who has gone after illegal immigrants a. he can use his prosecutorial authority from the justice department to go after companies that try to hire international workers as a way to root out fraud, but i think in the process of that, what legal immigration advocates fear is that it can create a chilling climate for people who want to

do that, and make everyone fear the government will come after them if they do try to hire skilled foreign workers. that is one thing he can do. the other thing he suggested -- on day one, he will ask the department of labor to look up how the visa programs impact american workers, and that echoes the language restrictions have used the mega have gone after these programs. trump -- it is something he could make a lot of headway on. scarlet: you mentioned the h-1b visa, the class of the says that tech companies rely on -- the class of visas tech companies rely on. industrym the tech that relies on h-1b visas, what others might be under review? what other industries would be affected? >> i think everything that comes under this category,

employment-based visas, whether it is h-1b, h-2a, the language we're hearing from trump and his 'saditional plans is that he going to try to pursue a system where people who try to hire foreign workers, foreign talent are required to look for american workers. that is not currently mandatory under the h-1b program. that is something that could make a big impact in terms of discouraging companies from trying to use these be sets. -- these visas. he could potentially go after regional centers that look for foreign investors, where you have to invest at least half a million, and you can get a green card. there has been some fraud in these areas, and if you ran some investigation or scrutiny, they

could have a chilling effect in terms of people trying to use it. joe: the rolling out of nominations continues today. nikki haley, the governor of south carolina, is the nominee for the human secretary -- sorry, the ambassador of the u.n. what does this tell us about his foreign-policy? >> not a lot. i don't think there's a whole lot of past experience that governor haley has on the international stage. what it does tell us is that he pointleast willing to some people to administration positions that don't necessarily support him all the way through. nikki haley supported marco rubio in the primary, and she was pretty muted in her criticism of donald trump, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will bring in someone like mitt romney, who was fiercely and scathingly critical of trump. we know he values loyalty, and

people with them from the beginning will get top spots. but this shows he is trying to diversify after picking a bunch of white men, he picked nikki haley. he's announced his intent to nominate ben carson to housing and urban development. it's a step. watch onwe'll have to his announcement. joe: all right. thanks to bloomberg politics. fresh fromming up, announcing she will seek a fourth term in the german election, angela merkel expressing concerns about president-elect trump's pray policies -- trade policies. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: "what'd you miss?" angela merkel is "not happy" with the collapse of the transpacific partnership after donald trump said he would withdraw from the deal. she awarded germans against turning to economic isolationism. for more on this future relationship between germany and the u.s., we want to bring in nina schick, joining us live from berlin. so many people have said that with the election of donald trump, angela merkel becomes the global symbol of moderate liberal democracy in the western world, that she is really alone here, and it raises the stakes for the german election next year. and it was quite interesting when president obama was on his farewell tour. he almost handed the baton over to merkel, talking about shared

liberal values. theink in germany, perception is overwhelmingly negative, so when she made her comments, she warned that the cooperation between the u.s. and america would be one of shared values of nondiscrimination. that was quite an extraordinary comment for her to make, and i think this whole she will fill is symbolic to the german people. however, when it comes to the politics between the two countries, merkel is very aware that germany needs to have a good relationship with the u.s., but trump makes that a lot more difficult. joe: why is that? what is germany to have a good relationship with the u.s.? >> is really interesting, because germany's main export partner, main trading partner, is the u.s., surpassing even france. it very much knows that it needs to do that, especially in the europe becoming more and more

protectionist. that's also one of germany's main export markets, and i think merkel realizes that she, in her political style, is dealing with strongmen like trump. hermore these men offend and a little her and chastise her, she keeps her calm and tries to push germany forward. america is too much of a strategic interest for germany to fall by the wayside. joe: compared to other mainstream political leaders in europe, merkel remains wildly popular. she is still very popular in the approval rating. nonetheless, germany does have a growing populist right, anti-immigration movement, like many of these other countries. how much can i grow? does this have a lot more room to run, or will it remain pretty stingy? >> well, i think it's

interesting. i think the recent developments in the u.s. and europe mean that germany, which has perhaps been discontent with eurozone policies and other general discontentment, now they are going to rally around merkel. trump's election and the brexit referendum strengthened her hand. it will be a political earthquake in politics in the sense that they will get the bundestag. if you consider their recent history, that will shock the country. nonetheless, the biggest story is not so much the decline of merkel, of the decline, like many other european countries, of social democrats. they are the ones who are hemorrhaging, and merkel -- i know it is dangerous to make predictions and politics now -- but merkel will definitely andge victorious next year,

obviously not as strong as she would and obviously not as strong as she would like in terms of support, but a huge feats nonetheless. scarlet: she has proven to be quite the survivor. you mentioned ast joining the bundesbank -- afd joining the bundesbank. eventually she will need to take up some of their platforms and causes. on which issues is she already showing she is moving in their direction? >> currently, none of the other political parties -- because the none of theboo, other parties will do any business or enter any coalition or do any deals with them. the fact is, in terms of policy, they don't really have any. the only policy they have so far is that they are against the chancellor's refugee policies. with regard to the huge influx of people we saw in germany last year, chancellor merkel, despite her refugee welcome rhetoric and

the fact that a million people came to germany last year, if you look at the policy of the current government, they are trying to crack down on the. -- on that. they are already going back on the events of last summer. i don't see the chancellor adopting any new policies. at this point it is to toxic. joe: quickly, what is the situation with germany, her relationship and position vis-a-vis russia? leader coulde next conciliatoryre toward putin -- where does that leave merkel? >> the interesting thing is that merkel has always traditionally been seen as a bridge between europe and russia. when russia to the invasion of ukraine, other countries were far more hawkish, including the baltic states, eastern europe, and the u.k. and germany, was very strong

economic ties and historical merkel, russia -- with symbolically at least being almost the leader of the liberal moderate opposition, symbolically, she will continue in her current position against putin. she will try to continue to push for those economic sanctions against russia. but without the leadership of the u.k. due to brexit and trunk's ambivalent -- from's -and the- -- joe: thank you for joining us. scarlet: coming up, as president-elect donald trump continues to assemble his team, wall street is wondering what relationship they will maintain with the financial industry. we spoke with a member of his transition team, and he discussed this with david gura. >> not the right job for me,

unfortunately, because i am not really a television host, but i play one on tv. and i'm not a lawyer, i'm a recovering lawyer. i went to harvard law but i never practice. no one has asked me to do that job. on regulation, i want to use a sports metaphor, if that's ok. if you were resting a soccer game and putting out too many yellow cards or credit cards, s, you slow it down in the game becomes less interesting. with regulation, we are trying to make society to save. clear over regulating -- we are over regulating. we don't want to do that, because when you over regulate a society, you slow down growth and opportunity. regulation is great for wall street. that's a dirty little wall street. because they can hire the incremental lawyers, the incremental outside counsel, they can build a compliance department.

if you want to start sky bridge today, my first nine employees would have to be lawyers. i wouldn't be able to start the company i started in 2005 today in the current regulatory environment. that is unfair to younger people that want to disrupt me. scarlet: that was the founder and chairman of sky bridge capital. joe: coming up, what you need to know to cure for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: "what'd you miss?" dow and the s&p climbing to new nasdaq,ighs, as the pulling back on better-than-expected durable goods orders. coming up after thanksgiving, black friday, where everyone goes shopping. joe: i will be looking forward to u.k. q3 gdp reports. scarlet: and u.s. wholesale and

retail inventories coming out. that does it for "what'd you miss?" thanks for watching.

john: with all due respect to president obama - - >> for the past seven years i have established another tradition. embarrassing my daughters with a cornucopia of dad jokes about turkeys. we should also make sure everyone is having to eat on thanksgiving. the turkeys are already stuffed. no way i am cutting this habit cold turkey. john: i do. -- i know. he's a lame turkey. ♪