>> good afternoon. i am the special inch a -- agent in charge. as the sheriff mentioned, we are working with the sheriff's office to support their ongoing efforts, working to do interviews. the investigation is very early. we have a lot of luminary information. at this point we want to support ae sheriff's office and make determination on the nature and motive of this. thank you. >> we heard about a shooting in terminal 1? shootinghas been no except downstairs at the terminal 2. as i speak, the only gunshots fired at any time during this incident were downstairs at terminal 2. >> what happened at terminal one? >> somebody got injured.

it had nothing to do -- we have no confirmation. we have law-enforcement personnel throughout the airport. they saw someone being arrested. is there another person involved? >> not in the shooting aspect of it. we are reviewing tapes. if someone was arrested, to my knowledge no one was taken into custody. people could have been in howcuffs until we found out they were related or not to this scenario. >> at the gate? >> is there any information -- >> one suspect is in custody.

we are not releasing information on the suspect. >> can you say what kind of weapon was used? >> we are not going to comment. was we apprehended him, he arrested without incident. >> any motive? >> was the shooter waiting for somebody to arrive? >> we are at the very beginning of the investigative stages. that is why at this point we will lean on the investigation. if we do uncover this was related to any type of terrorist activity, the fbi will have complete command of this and we will be assisting the fbi as we move forward. also i want to tell you, this is not the time for anyone to call 911. we are all over here. if you have a real emergency,

keep the 911 lines open. if you need information, you can follow us on twitter. >> have you been able to identify any vehicles at the airport that might belong to the shooter? >> not to my knowledge. >> is there an indication of terrorism? >> it is too early. that is what is going on right now. >> where were the people coming from in the baggage area? i do know what flight. we are not releasing any information. >> that was a news conference from fort lauderdale, hollywood international airport. we heard from the sheriff who said it is a fluid scene right now. the shooter, one suspect in custody. a weapont comment on

used. the shooter was arrested without incident. scott israel. the airport director had suspended all operations at the airport. they do not know when the airport will resume operations. people are sheltered in place. the fbi is working with the sheriff's office to determine whether there is a terrorism link. >> local law-enforcement is pointing out there were no shots fired on the part of law-enforcement enforcement. only the shooter fired shots. taken without incident. no indication of the type of gun, motivation. >> there has been no confirmation of shooting outside of the terminal. five people were killed, eight wounded in the shooting. the investigation is at an early stage. >> we will be keeping an eye on this. the major averages as we head toward the close, abigail

doolittle is standing by. >> it has turned into a bullish day for u.s. stocks. the three major averages trading higher, all three have also carved out all-time highs and on pace for record closes. a lot of excitement. point ofame within one doubt 20,000. it has not happened yet. small-caph noting the index is actually down, not confirming the other averages. not a big deal. it is important to keep an eye when you do not see complete confirmation. as for the dow, this is an intraday chart. right here earlier today when no cigar.t 19,999, not quite yet. maybe later, the next 30 minutes or so. we will be watching closely.

as for the gains across the board, we have a chart in the bloomberg and we take a look at the chart going all the way back to 1970. it shows the dow, s&p 500, and nasdaq in a correlated manner. the blue bars represent the average is hitting synchronized record highs. we see that today is one such day. signaling this picture of u.s. stocks. and when we go across asset classes, it is a risk on day. the dollar index is up about .6%, snapping a losing streak. it is supported by the 10-year yield, up eight basis points, it's best day since december 14 when the fed raised rates for the second time. and the dollar is rallying in a big way against the yen. the yen is having its worst day

since december 14. a nice risk on day for the financial markets. scarlet: thanks for setting the scene. solar power is cheaper than coal in some parts of the world. with every part of the supply chain cutting costs, solar looks like the lowest cost option everywhere. we have with us chris martin, a technology reporter. the price decline amazes me. chris, talk about the trajectory of the price decline. did it happen in the first part of the decade or did it accelerate? >> it has accelerated, especially as manufacturers have increased scale. they are realizing economies of scale and competing for business. things,n, one of the

this is an incredible story. this collapse in solar prices seems to be good news for the world. who is making money? >> right now, no one. solar prices at $.35, all manufacturers are losing money. it was predicted that solar would be cost competitive by 1990. we have seen similar predictions from the 1980's to the 2000's. solarsue, if you compare to fossil fuel, you are doing the wrong thing. you can't replace fossil fuel with intermittent power. that is the fundamental issue and problem with parity. scarlet: you have to look at it on its own. how much of the decline in price can we credit to technology versus policy? gordon: a lot of it has to do

with competition. essentially in 2008, panel prices were at four dollars and now they are $.35. it is competition. chris, new administration. the last administration was friendly toward alternative energy. this administration seems the exact opposite. how does this affect the industry? don't see many rule changes coming. it is going to be steady. i don't think trump has an agenda. some of his cabinet members may. solar is cheap now compared to other sources. if you look at in terms of the displacement of fossil fuels, that is a better way to look at it. that is where solar is cheaper. it displaces natural gas and coal. scarlet: what does that mean for

your portfolio? does it mean that you are lighter on natural gas producers? negativee are very solar. prices, companies are going to lose money. earnings are going to be very bad. if you think about it, in developed countries, energy is stable. the energy infrastructure exists as it is. no need to use solar to displace fossil fuels. that is a misunderstanding. with respect to the trump administration, he is not going to dusek if it can change. -- to do significant change. if the world assumes we are not going to do solar, other countries are going to lessen incentives. then the demand will collapse. the outlook is negative. >> does that mean some of the estimates in terms of the pace

of declines are not going to materialize as people don't see this as an exciting place to invest? gordon: prices will come down because you have oversupplied. we have $.35. 2000 eight,s -- in you are talking about four dollars. i don't think there is more that prices can come down. companies are losing money. that is the important thing to look at. >> does it help the developers? gordon: it does. parity is a term created by the solar industry. it is a farce. it's ridiculous. i got off the phone with the u.s. government eia and they said you should not compare the cost of solar to the cost of fossil fuels because you don't use solar to displace fossil fuels. that is the fundamental issue. >> in theory if we develop a storage technology that allows solar power to work 24 hours a

day, it could change. is that anywhere on the horizon? costn: if there was a competitive way, that is where you would want to put your money. that is new energy, that is revolutionary. we are nowhere near where we need to be right now. you talk to experts, we are 10 years out. they said the same thing five years ago. once we get there, that will be amazing. scarlet: what about storage? chris: cost is improving. they are not there yet to effectively store solar power and replace fossil fuel generation. chris martin, thank you so much. gordon johnson, head of alternative energy. we appreciate it. coming up, robert kaplan says it is time to move rates up. he will share his thoughts. from new york, this is

bloomberg. ♪

"> "what'd you miss? will the fed move to a more strategic policy stance? at the annual meeting chicago, our correspondent michael mckee with robert kaplan. he was asked about rates, oil, and donald trump's offensive against jobs moving to mexico. >> this relationship allows us to grow jobs in the united states and it allows us to compete more effectively with asia and china. you want to make sure to take that into account. michael: how vulnerable is the

mexican economy to some sort of trade interruption and feedback loop? it will certainly be affected. you have seen the impact on the currency. mexico has made a number of improvements. a reform of the energy sector and have opened it up to global investment. they have provided a safety net. they made a lot of improvements that have helped the economy. this creates a headwind for them and they are trying to manage it. my main point is our relationship with mexico, the united states, is important to the competitiveness of the united states. we want to grow jobs and united states and make sure we are globally competitive. this relationship is a key part of that. michael: your district is the headquarters of the energy

industry. what are companies telling you about their plans? are they going to go back into the fields? mr. kaplan: yes. you are seeing more drilling activity. based on our discussions, if prices get, which they are about there now, between $55 and $65 a barrel, you'll see increases in drilling activity. we are already seeing it. you will see a good operating environment in 2017. this is based on the fact global supply and demand is finally getting into balance. we expect that to curve in 2017. michael: do they think they are going to be maintained we will not go through a boom and bust cycle? mr. kaplan: most people have been through booms and busts. after what they have been through, i would say they are very careful and cautious. if they have a chance to

deleverage, they are. they are being careful about capital spending. of what is imprint going on the last couple of years will cause them to be cautious. even with that, you will see more activity. back to monetary policy, you are a voter. when you look at the economy, leaving aside the possible impact of the trump administration, is 66 basis points appropriate for this economy? mr. kaplan: we should be removing accommodation. higher rate in 2017 is going to be more appropriate. the thing we will debate is the rate at which we should be removing accommodation. the sep that came out in december gives you a sense of where we are, of my views. we should be removing accommodation.

i think we can do it in a gradual way. i think we need to be on that kind of pet to remove monetary commendation. michael: if we followed the consensus, how would you see the timing? what criteria would you use to decide, ok, this is the meeting? is,kaplan: the framework are we making progress on reaching full employment and price stability? we are making good progress on both. the other thing is a little bit wonky. what is the neutral rate? the rate at which we are neither stimulative or restrictive? towardto see is moving that neutral stance. michael: what is that number? mr. kaplan: there's been a lot of work, and i have said before with you, there is good arguments it has been around

zero. if you add the inflation rate of about 1.75%, you would get a rate of 1.75%. with more fiscal policy and other actions, you could see the neutral rate drift up further. it tells you when i say we should be removing accommodation, i have in the back of my mind it might be appropriate to remain accommodative. that has other -- as other policies take hold, and we meet our employment objective, we should be moving closer to a neutral stance and we have a number of moves to get there and we should do it patiently. michael: does the process -- scarlet: the u.s. government has released its report on russian hacking in the election and it turns out vladimir putin ordered

and influence campaign and that he and russia tried to discredit hillary clinton. we are a that to the report. releasing thement report. a key headline, putin ordering and influence campaign with the aim of discrediting hillary clinton. we shared -- we hear the word hacking, this implies a media hacking designed to disfavor one of the candidates. scarlet: in the report, headlines russia wanted to undermine hillary clinton. the aim was to help donald trump win. there was no aaron t of that. if she would have won -- there was no guarantee of that. they paid social media users as well, according to the u.s. intelligence report. >> a pretty remarkable headline. scarlet: we will keep you posted

from any response from trump on this. let's look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. bank of america is looking to boost bonuses and payoffs for those handling stocks, according to people with knowledge of the matter. the combined compensation pool will be divided among fewer people. the environmental protection agency has given the greenlight to a proposed fix for some cars with decent legends, covering about 70,000 vehicles. the choice to keep and fix the car or have it purchased back. neiman marcus is scrapping plans to go public. proceedt in interest to with an ipo at this time. this as macy's and kohl's reported disappointing holiday

sales and cut their profit estimates. holiday sales and cut their profit estimates. and that is your bigness -- business flash update. >> coming, the changing fortunes of two titans in retail. this is bloomberg. ♪

i am scarlet fu. macy's and kohl's told us about their difficulty during the holiday shopping season. it goes beyond that because tjx, the owner of t.j. maxx and marshalls, has been beating macy's when it comes to annual sales. take a look, the blue bars are macy's revenue, 27 billion dollars for 2016. t.j. maxx is at $31 billion. the switchover happened in 2015 and the gap is only widening. this is interesting in so far as , a luxury store chain, has said it is scrapping plans for an ipo because the

timing is not right. >> it will be interesting to see if the timing does become right. it is not just physical retail. digitalical -- the economy is not doing as well as it once was. facebook, you've got to love it. that magenta line, the 50 day facebook average, the green line the 200 day average. for the first time in three years, the magenta might fall below the longer-term average and some people say that is bad news. if you look at the last time that happened in 2013, it was preceded by a spike in facebook. of slagging a sign momentum. facebook reports another monster quarter. that has always been the case. the market close is next. we got within half of one point of 20,000. we could not get there.

the dow up 71 points. not yet at 20,000. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ scarlet: we are moments away from the closing bell.

what did you miss? the dow rising within one point of that round number milestone. the s&p 500 climbed to a record or the second week in a month. i am scarlet fu. >> i am joe weisenthal. if you are tuning in the life on to welcome you to our closing bell coverage every weekday from 4:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. et. >> we begin with our market minutes. we can't leave that nasdaq out of the party. gain or the first week of 2017. let's go inside the bloomberg and take a look at the sector breakdown for equities. have tech overall higher, even with facebook confronting that death cross. materials asking for

to investigate that review. as far as performers in the dow industrials, the dow got so close to 20,000, just about a third of a point. goldman sachs, the best performer. today since november 8, it is up by 1.6%. for us in the big loser down by 1.5%. joe: let's look at government bonds starting with u.s. two-year and 10 year yields reacting to that jobs report. both are shooting higher. we saw yields fall significantly. u.s. 10 year yield back up 1.24%. also seeing a big move in the u.k. data, it is a 1.38 on the 10 year.

can see the reaction right there shooting higher after that strong job report at eight: 30. wages rising 2.9% year-over-year. that is the sign of a tighter labor market. even after that jump up, you will continue to see rise throughout the day. scarlet: the dollar recovering from a two day decline after the job reports confirmed. keep in mind, flows were pretty light. holidays across europe keeping trading volume low. not a lot of liquidity. the u.s. released a job report and so did canada. aere was a data dump with brighter picture for the canadian economy. gains in employment. at dollar falling in value

8:30 a.m. the data certainly help sentiment, an analyst at deutsche bank said, but it is not help the sentiment of a stronger dollar. look briefly at commodities. not a very active day. oil and gold flipping a little bit. this strong jobs report taking out some of the wind from the sales of gold -- wind for the sails of gold. scarlet: those are today's market minutes. if you go to the bloomberg, you can use our charts using the function at the bottom of the screen. we are starting with the jobs report. average hourly earnings, that is your white line. up 2.9 percent. a weonfirms some of the dat

have been getting. the conference for measuring consumer expectations, that is sideellow line, and that huge uptick as well. wage growth will continue to accelerate, one analyst said. about thattalk more jobs data and what you may have expertsrom it with our including a senior u.s. economist at the bloomberg intelligence. how would you summarize the report? >> the key take away was a tick up in earnings, which is a significant increase. joe: last month it was a big drop. a one-time related issue, but

if you look at the average path of average hourly earnings from 2014-2015 and 16, you see the same upward trend, which is very encouraging. that means income growth is veryerating, not that is a -- not in a very fast pace, but enough to encourage consumer spending. at the first of this year, we could see support from the consumers and feel other fiscal measures taken. .- fiscal measures kick in scarlet: a big factor has been the labor force participation rate. joe: it is holding near those thatand the pressure is

olds are retiring again. baby boomers are starting to leave the labor force. the reason you saw the headline was that americans over the age of 65 that were not in the labor force plateaued and been in the third-quarter it went up by 800,000. you think about wearing a pair of pants when you think of the labor market, you get fatter and the -- you get fatter and the pants are shrinking in the dryer. scarlet: how much more will they shrink? we have been talking about this trend of data boomers retiring boomersile now -- baby

retiring for a while now, how much is this still in the system? >> they ask consumers, do you feel comfortable retiring and that has been on an upward trend as well. you see it in many different kinds of data. i persimmon that will continue as long as economic growth remains on an upward path. but i think there is a little bit of a cyclical component in that out of the labor force people. they can still come back into the labor force if they see improvement in average hourly earnings and central -- and sentiment in economic growth. joe: you noted after the michigan survey in december, the confidence among older americans. if you want to reinforce the election results and have a boost in confidence and make

people feel more secure about prospects going forward, that element could be at play here. joe: people are saying, i don't need my job, i felt comfortable and my money will be there. scarlet: do we know why retirement plateaued in 2016? >> wages, we were seeing an upward trend in wages and it could be that older workers were incentivized to hang around. also, you are still rebuilding your nest egg after the great recession. joe: what is in the take away from the fed specifically? >> it will renew the rhetoric around, though, we need to tighten policy at a faster pace. but remember, this year, the majority of the voting numbers are the doves.

we might not actually see the acceleration from the rate hikes. scarlet: the 2-3 hikes are from fed members who have stepped aside or are not voting. and othersaplan might be on the hawkish side. those two may be the moderate hawks on the committee. but the rest of the committee is on the dovish side. joe: great stuff from both of you. we appreciate you both coming. scarlet: coming up, what is the risk of continuing to sell dollars to short the mexican peso. this is a bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: the central bank of byico defended the peso selling dollars for the first time since february. this is after the peso dropped to a 20 year low. goldman sachs says this is unprecedented. would you say the peso is in crisis mode right now? >> it is certainly undervalued. the peso was at this week, the economy was under the grip of a incredible recession. today, the economy is not in crisis and the taking sector a

solid, but this is just a reflection of the uncertainty the mexican economy is facing. joe: you look at the chart, we are still basically at levels, as we saw yesterday, there have been two interventions so far. do they hope to get more bang for their buck? >> the objective is to anchor the currency. the currency is way too cheap. they will add inflationary pressures and stabilize sentiment in local markets and that could trigger capital outflows from the economy. assessment tells us that the peso is about 25%-30 5% overvalued -- 25% or 30% overvalued. joe: it has a point where it starts creating a panic. >> we need a competitive currency. one that is in line with economic fundamentals.

the currency that is way too weak will lead to much harder financial conditions -- higher wages. country suffering from a competitive currency will make wages higher. since the last crisis, we have had nafta and the argument in the united states as presented by president-elect donald trump is that nafta hurt the american worker. did nafta hurt mexico? >> it was a great opportunity. we do not know what the economic reality of mexico would look like had nafta not been signed. but nafta modernized a number of industries. there are two economies in

mexico, the modern mexico and the traditional backwards mexico of the countryside where productivity growth has been very low if not negative over the last 30 years. the authorities could have done a lot more to maximize those opportunities. they could have invested in more capital and giving skills and knowledge to the workforce would have modernized the infrastructure. there are a lot other things they couldn't done like fighting corruption. mexico is still an economy where key sectors are highly monopolized. that is highly inefficient. a oil and gas, we have monopoly that is inefficient as it comes. scarlet: the hoped-for mexico was that, signing nafta, it would allow it to become an asian tiger where the economy

took off. instead, mexico's growth is behind it south american peers. infrastructureze and issues of corruption were not targeted in the mexican economy. very inefficient sectors that did not attract enough investment and did not allow productivity growth to capitalize all the potential they could've seen in the sectors. sporadicave seen examples of companies planning to invest in mexico deciding not to. being one and they did not. economyificant is the are these plans from foreign multinationals on the margins to

set up operations in the cap -- in a mexico -- in mexico? >> there is uncertainty in the u.s. and that uncertainty is corrosive. we do not know the terms on which we will have access to u.s. markets. also the consumers are reading the newspapers and they become defensive. it is already negative for mexico even if nothing happens going forward. scarlet: i want to switch gears here and turned to brazil. you are known to talk about the brazilian economy entering a depression. >> we are in a much better path than we were before.

much more hopeful tract. a path that will lead to a much better outcome. it may take a long time to terrell us. -- only criticism we had a the only criticism we have expressed is things are moving slowly. but the government has been forthcoming with the school fiscal reform moves. we are on the right path, but it may take a while before we see dividends. joe: brazil had a phenomenal 2016. one of the best performing currencies. it overvalued, undervalued? riau is getting

overvalued. we are that to the levels of 2014. the average inflation is higher than the trading partners of brazil. scarlet: inflation is now below 7% in the first time in two years, does that give the central enough time to do what it needs to do? >> we are nearing a three-year long recession and it is still at a questionable 6%. it gives you an idea of how generalized inflation became in brazil. but now inflation expectations have realigned and the currency is no longer a central issue. that is for the central bank to introduce a new monetary policy. in 2016, rates are still very high in an economy trying to

wrestle an economic depression. joe: one thing you mentioned when we were talking about mexico, the failure to invest in human capital and infrastructure. looking at a country like brazil, can it simultaneously consolidate the fiscal picture while continuing to make investments ethically. >> yes. you need to turn around the fiscal, but one of the reasons that investment collapsed in brazil was worries about sustainability. economy, a very closed unlike mexico. there is a huge structural agenda that have to be tackled. we are trying to exit a financial recession, but then we need to do a lot more to help

financial growth. alberto ramis, goldman sachs's head of south american economic research. we will keep you informed on the u.s. intelligence report that says that vladimir putin tried to aim a influence campaign against the united states. more analysis. this is bloomberg. ♪

statement, he says come about russia, china, and other outside groups are consistently trying to break

through the church are our governmental institutions, businesses and organizations, there was absolutely no effect on the outcome of the election, including the fact that there was no tampering with voting machines. joe: the last hour, the u.s. intelligence committee -- community published a report that said vladimir putin quote aimed a influence campaign to influence the u.s. presidential election. is 26-27 report that pages. what is your big take away? >> here is what i am most interested in. central intelligence is alleging that russia actually did try to help donald trump by hurting hillary clinton and there was a specific moment in the campaign in which they switched to

actually elevating trump and hurting hillary clinton. they chose a side. where they don't go in this report is they don't say why. and there is a key line in here that says while the cia and the fbi are extremely confident with the conclusion of their report, the nsa is only moderately confident. division is important because it is going to allow the trump transition team to seize upon this to make the argument that there is a politicization of the u.s. intelligence community. scarlet: in terms of what congress can do, can they dig into this further? what happens next? >> i have got a bunch of questions after reading this report and they specifically mentioned in this report that congressional officials are already asking for more

information. one of the key question is whether or not russia's meddling in the election is a result of u.s. hacking against russia. there is a note here that putin believed that the u.s. a doping scandal as well as the panel papers came from the u.s. if you are on capitol hill, i think this questions are going to continue in congress. already, you talk to people like senator john mccain and senator lindsey graham, these are republicans pressing the incoming administration to take a stronger actions against russia. joe: we talk about hacking, the -- ang, getting the emails lot of this report is about everything that was wide out in the open. wikileaks,y, everything that was out there

for us to see. these novel ways of influencing the discourse. propaganda for this modern age being a key part of what they described here. trolls, this is the first time this has been in a u.s. intelligence committee report. the other point i would make, and this is an important one, they say in the report there was no hacking of polling booths. while there was a clear effort to undermine from a propaganda standpoint, nothing from a concrete standpoint. scarlet: thank you so much for digesting that. coming up next, yellow economist robert shiller will be joining us for an interview. this is bloomberg. ♪

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private wifi for your business. strong and secure. good for a door. and a network. comcast business. built for security. built for business. i am courtney collins, let's get to the first word news. a shooting at the airport in fort lauderdale florida has left five people dead and eight others wounded. officials say a new jersey man arrived on a canadian flight with a gun in his back. the man identified by florida senator bill nelson as s tavon santiago is in custody. a motive has not been determined. intelligence officials say russian president vladimir putin did try to influence the u.s. presidential election. released a report saying the russian government quote had a clear preference for aimed to trump and

discredit hillary clinton. says russianump hackers had absolutely no effect on the u.s. election. afterreleased a statement a meeting with u.s. intelligence officials. he called that meeting instructive. to fightled for a plan and prevent terrorists attacked -- terrorist attacks. president obama was critical of repealublican plan to obamacare first and then replace it. >> the strategy of repeal first and replace later is a huge disservice to the american people and is something that i think, whether you are republican or democrat, you should be opposed to. >> the president's office if

republicans can make obamacare better he is all for it. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. let's take you to chicago where the american economic association is kicking off its annual meeting. our correspondent is there with an exclusive interview. >> we are here with the president of the american economic association, robert fromer, the nobel laureate yale university. an interesting time for this group and the economics profession. a difficult time for economics in this post factual world. respond?the profession a large has always been number of people who think economists don't know what they

are talking about. it has gotten much worse. it is not just economists, it is news people and universities that are claimed to be deliberately biased. that is an unfortunate development in our society. it is not true or any more true than it ever was, but it is a perception. >> as you do some soul-searching, have you elevate the profession? what do you say to people who go about donald trump and save economists have let us down. >> we have not let you down. the recession is over. national wealth is that a new record level.

the thing that is bad is rising inequality, but that is not the thing that trump directly addresses. billionaires.mire public doesgeneral not watch economists very much. we are kind of in the background working on helping people who are either in business or government as advisors. i don't think this is such a prominent institution. when i asked, name a famous economist, someone i met could thinkc. of -- could not of one. >> have you seen anything in the trump economic plan that would

be a benefit to the country? >> he wants to build infrastructure. that is a good idea. he doesn't put it this way, but apparently he wants deficit spending. maybe we don't need that quite so much anymore. it is orientation may spur the economy -- his business orientation may spur the economy. like calvin coolidge, the business of america is business. he is calvin coolidge squared. >> you work in behavioral economics? "animalte a book called spirits," and we argue most of what drives business fluctuations is psychological.

some people call it confidence, but it is the sense that i can do big things. there are other people doing big things and they appreciate me. that maybe a positive -- may be a positive for donald trump. economy,e a stronger too strongt will get and overheated. >> we saw in the great depression, people did not spend much and it really took world war ii to get out of that mentality. the big event is donald trump. the spirit came back after world war ii. harry truman was another

businessman president, although no way a billionaire. he had a haberdashery. , as long as spirit it doesn't get too strong, can be a good thing. >> people have questioned his trade policies and the fact that he will impose tariffs. we economic team says if cartel imports, the economy grows faster. economists who worry free trade ist good for the nation as a whole, but not everybody. people to compensate for with job loss has been people. congress in the early 2000 created a trade adjustment

assistance for people who lost their jobs because of free trade. it is a small program and it doesn't have much effect. there is a growing recognition among economists that free trade is not such an unambiguously did ring because it hurts -- unambiguously good thing because it hurts people. >> do you have free terrorists or work harder to do trade adjustment -- do you have free dororists -- tariffs or trade adjustment? >> i think we should do trade adjustment. the trump spirit is about inspiring you to do all you can. his television show, "the

apprentice," is perfect for people -- for launching his presidential campaign. people do not want handouts. they want to earn it and trump has a series of inspirational books about how to get rich. maybe he will inspire people. >> you wrote back in august about your fear that society will become more unequal. we are not taking a long-term view on how to deal with these problems. had he seen anything from the incoming administration that would to do that, and if not, what would you suggest? >> first of all, trump is trying to defend jobs as he did by negotiating with companies. think trumpat i

doesn't face up to, maybe because it does not help him is that a large part of job loss is due to technology and not foreign trade. machines are replacing jobs now. prosper, there's a good chance that it will not be shared equally. it will go to the entrepreneurs. maybe it is still a good thing to do, but it is more trickle-down economics. it dates back to the 1920's, the idea that voting business will help everyone, including lower income people. there might be some help -- there might be some truth to that, but i don't think it will solve the rising inequality problem, which i totally expect to continue as technology

continues to improve. >> are you optimistic or pessimistic going into 2017? >> i am an optimistic person even though i have been saying for years that the stock market is overpriced. i still think it might go up further. i like to think that, at the bottom of it, despite his rough edges, trump wants good things for the economy. there will be another election in four years if he doesn't do well. andobert shiller from yale the president of the american economic association. becky, scarlet. -- back to you, scarlet. joe: coming up, one week into the new year and we have already seen interesting moves.

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joe: what did you miss? the year andrt of we are seeing surprising moves in the dollar and interest rate. i think what is the interesting is this is not clearly german by the data or fundamentals. the u.s. a data has been strong and the isn prices paid was at the high level in a long time. move.s a counterintuitive we know going into the end of last year there was an extreme consensus for the long the dollar.

dollar.onger >> we have seen some firm inflation data around the world and germany. how far in your view does this go. is this a return to something more related to oil or is this a start of a move in trajectory? >> you can see from the producer prices around the world, they are really going up. that is the solid trend by the inflation move. this is come to stay for some time. in considering what happened the commodities last year, that is going toion comment the next few months. i think long-term, this inflationary factors, some things like technology and demographics remain. the theme of this year will be

inflation at the first half of this year and after economist raises their expectations, it will suddenly disappoint. start tohen economists believe in it and raise their forecast for inflation, then we are going to get disappointment. is this because nothing has changed in the fundamentals? economistsfor most to move there forecast incrementally. it seems stupid if they are jumping there predictions of and down all over the place. that means they incrementally move as we get more and more data and they are always behind the turning point. that will continue to be the case. >> let's talk about china. you have been optimistic about the chinese economy for a wild. real does seem to be some anxiety in china about the state of capital outflows.

we have seen some a dramatic attempts to beat back the yuan bears. how do you analyze the country's capital situation and the future of the yuan? >> the main thing that is happening in china is the currency and if there is a real panic around that. thehina they focus on dollar cny level. the pboc have taken a lot of measures in the last two days in particular to try to stem of that. that. to stem the yuan has been stable. the dollar.re about if the dollar can start weakening, then the concern around the yuan will start

weakening. it is really all about the dollar here. that is what the pboc is concerned about. we had the yuan, we are watching inflation, we are watching the crowded trade on rates. what is another thing people are not paying enough attention to that they will be at the start of this year? >> i think growth is picking up and people are behind the curve about how much it is picking up. the data has been exceptionally strong everywhere in the world. that growth pickup is bigger than people think. another thing happening in the moment i needed to be reminded -- once central banks step away from markets, the market can do some funny things. the dollar can probably fall several percentage points and still be in the long-term

uptrend. everyone is saying the fundamentals are good for the dollar. i would say once the central banks step away, don't rush to buy too quickly. the dollar-yen, it is risen to 101.20. dollar-yen can follow another 4.5% and still they on a long uptrend. was our correspondent in singapore. the priceup, what is of oil saying about 2017. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: i am scarlet fu. let's dive into the bloomberg. you were talking earlier about bitcoin and old and how gold was wasnd gold and how gold surging. 2.6% and as much as the reason here is seasonal. demandation of increased for gold jewelry in china before the winter new year, which takes place around january 28. in 2013, he solve the sustained gain of gold through the first part of the year. >> i am always skeptical of these seasonal things but it is interesting because people do

trade on these things. it is a good thing to know that gold starts the year with the gains. look at the last four years and you can see that the game has sustained itself through january 21. it really took off from early january through gary 21st. january 21st. joe: taking back to the job support. -- jobs report. one way to look at it is to measure unemployment and underemployment. headlines that u3 unemployment rate might be showing more slack in the labor market that it usually does. you can see this gap really surged in 2009.

the headline unemployment rate may have been understated. now you can see the gap is 4.5%. the is the lowest gap since crisis. if you blow it out a little bit, you can see there is still a fair amount to do. go back to 2006, the gap was 3.3%. there is more room for the u6 underemployment rate. we are seeing a lot of improvement. this is something that the janet yellen on the fed look that, but maybe there is room for more improvement. what is notable as well is the trajectory since 2012 has been pretty steady. since 2016, it has changed. joe: we saw that with a number of the measures, but it looks

like we are back on the improved track. need to knowat you for next week's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: what did you best? miss?t did you s&p closing and the at a record numbers, but not many thousand. 20,000. also, we are going to be speaking with the general motors ceo mary barra. joe: on tuesday, president obama will deliver his farewell speech to the nation. president-elect a donald trump has a planned news conference right after. on wednesday, the u.s. senate foreign relations committee begins confirmation hearings on rex tillerson, the

former exxon mobil ceo nominated by president-elect trump to be secretary of state. joe: and don't miss some of the world's biggest banks announcing earnings. if you morgan chase, wells fargo, and bank of america all monday.n scarlet: breaking all those before the market opens on friday. in the meantime, that does it for what did you miss. have a great weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i am courtney collins and you are watching "bloomberg technology." the ap sighting of fort subjectle officials is

people were killed and eight wounded at the airport in fort lauderdale. police say the soul gunmen was taken into custody unharmed. hass official, congress tallied the electoral college has beendonald trump elected president. mike pence hasn't been elected president. obama thousand two publicly --- if republicans have a better plan, they should show their cards. and the government could wrap up on case against dylann roof friday. federal prosecutors are seeking e