we are 30 minutes from the close of trading here in the u.s. scarlet: u.s. stocks tumbling the dow jones at one point down almost 200 points. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" scarlet: the truck rally hitting a speed bump. more gridlock in washington. the backlash continues. --sident trump's travel ban republican senator senators are even starting to push back. we will scare -- share exclusively from the former minnesota governor on the president's latest push. let's look at where the major averages stand as we head towards the close. abigail doolittle is standing by. theail: we're looking at worst decline from the major averages are for the u.s. this year. just moments ago we were on pace

for the worst decline since october 11 of last year. way of then in a intraday volatility we have been seeing, but it bigger, more violent version of it. at the lows come all the averages were down more than 1%. more of the same could be ahead. plus the dow transports are down more than 1%. sometimes this is considered to be more of a leading index. the list to say there is lots of uncertainty and perhaps some fear with the vix spiking higher. trump rally certainly seems to be -- not just in terms of equity that some of the big trump trade sectors that benefited after the election are trading off the most today. materials, financials. lots of weakness. are we seeing some sort of reversal?

you're going to have jonathan dollop on shortly. we have a great chart on the bloomberg that talks to this shift and suggests it might not so much be about trump. in purple we have the dow industrial average since the election up nicely. that aspect is still in place. in orange we have gold appeared gold is still down. blue we have the 10 year yield still sharply higher. the trump trade overall is in place. but we have a shift underway and it happened the second time the fed raised rates in a decade. after that we saw the dow stagnated. the 10 year trade down. a little bit of a haven bid with gold. the macro shift seems to be more about the fed. as for the sectors since the election -- the inauguration, i should shed -- say, we are seeing a shift.

materials and tech of the top-performing sectors since the inauguration. the worst two are telecom and energy. the middle of the dow is up about .5% since the inauguration of giving up much of the gain. to see some shift but overall it looks like he could be more about the fed than about trump, at least right now. scarlet: we have some breaking news. says theumer president's travel ban was mean-spirited and the band must be reversed. u.s. for a vote today to overturn the action. , theother headlines president should not rely on steve bannon for national security. that is not chuck schumer, he has already finished his reap marks -- -- his remarks. joe: "what'd you miss?"

president trump's travel ban has sparked a global backlash that has amped up division between his administration, some republicans and democrats alike. aat will likely result in combative congress. how much political capital has trump used up and how will it impact his legislative agenda? let's ask nancy from capitol hill. becky for joining us. aboutors are so thrilled the prospect of tax cuts and deregulation and fiscal stimulus. controversy from the last few days affect the perspective legislative calendar? nancy: the first thing it does is it completely takes away the attention from trump's initiatives that he wants to get through congress such as a big infrastructure building plan that was talked about last week, comprehensive tax reform it over all of the tax code, affordable care act repealed.

big legislative proposals are not being discussed this week goes all the attention is on this executive order and the ones that preceded it. when you talk about political capital, a lot of that seats await when you get bogged down in these controversies. whatet: you wonder to extent will people stop thinking that washington will get things done and end up in gridlock which we have seen in the previous eight years. nancy: it does not take much. in new president takes into office and he has a lot of political capital but really he does not have that much time to use it on his big initiatives. when new president comes in, the first two years are usually when you see the big things happen. president bush came in and had a 2001 tax cuts and the 2003 tax cuts also. once he decided to go into iraq to invade, he lost a lot of political capital. in the last two years of his administration he was not able to do that much.

you have a little bit of time and you have to have some bridges with the opposition party to find common ground to get anything big done. joe: i was just going to ask about the bridges with the opposition party. we have seen some republicans come out over the last 48 hours tsonga disagreed with the executive orders that were issued on friday. but on top of that, it really seems like the pressure on democrats to network work with trump at all is now going to be immense. it was probably already very high but it is only getting harder to imagine democrats working with trump in any way. nancy: the last few days have made it tougher for democrats. how do they speak to their constituencies about working with trump after we have seen these executive orders? however it is, it is tougher for democrats. there are some things they would like to do possibly with trump. for example, senator schumer would like to do an ambitious

infrastructure plan. other people are interested in finding some refinements to make the room -- affordable care act work better. there are other places where they could find common ground in the tax code possibly. but right now we not hearing too much about that. he ist: yells a says asking for a vote today to overturn the trump action. how would democrats go about doing that? how to overturn an executive order? nancy: we have not seen very much of that. we did not really see that happen on obama's executive orders. it is difficult to do. usually the republicans went to an executive order on immigration from being put into place and implemented by the department of homeland security. i would imagine they would try fat. senatorstarters i think schumer would like to get the

senate on record for being against it. he could try to bring something up but mcconnell would likely block it. nets joining us from washington, thank you so much. what would prompt markets -- let's bring in the chief strategist. jonathan are we looking at it now with today's selloff? is that what investors are pricing in? jonathan: we love a story but the reality is the market is off less than 1%. we have not had a 1% pullback. we were at all-time highs two days ago. we also knew that when trump was elected that we were going to have at the very least a fair bit of entertainment in terms of the kind of things that will go to move in and out of news headlines. not making light of the things taking over the headlines, but

if we are getting concerned about 80 basis points off the mark in one day i think we're getting carried away. joe: today aside, there seems to be a widespread view among investors that the rally we have seen since early november is ,artly based on expectations tax reform, deregulation, fiscal stimulus leading to higher growth. at what point might investors start to worry that at a minimum some of the stuff is going to get pushed further into the future than they might have thought? what is currently baked in in terms of legislative action? runthan: market had a 40% at 6% or so. economic datahe is solid. interest rates are higher which is supporting the banks. energy prices are higher which is supporting that industry. than the reasons other hoped-for drum policy.

-- hope for trump policy. you saw interest rates start to move in some of these other changes really in july. is it possible the market is ahead of itself and they will have a couple of percent pullback? yes, but you raise a more important point -- if he bites off too much and he's all over the place and there is no focus on the two or three things you care about your taxes, regulation and the potential for stimulus. if those take a backseat to other things than this market at the very least will not be as spectacular as we hoped. scarlet: we talked about the expectations. data shows that people and businesses feel better. now we're are waiting for the hard data to back that up. what have we missed? fromhas been a story company executives as they prepare for the next six months

to a year? most important thing is they are not putting in their projections for 2017, changes in the regulatory environment. this is typically what happens with earnings. analysts start off with you optimistic and numbers ration down. if you look at since election day, the actual earning expectations have held perfectly steady without the benefit of the proposed changes. what is keeping it from falling? it really is higher energy and commodity prices, better interest rates and these things you are talking about. even if we do not get this i think we are in an ok position. you are not hearing people getting ahead of themselves in terms of at least the official forecasts. joe: what our clients most interested in right now with respect to policy of this administration? jonathan: i just spent two weeks in europe the week before i was

in canada. they are looking for a level of -- exactly what does this mean? reality is you have a rhyme plan and a trump plan and tweets -- they want specifics and there are no specifics. i think what they are going to have to get used to is that we are going to go for months before we have any more clarity and it is a good chance we are not going to be clear on these until sometime in 2017. think the markets will be ok with that as long as they keep thinking that something is coming their way even if it is a little late. i think the market will be ok with that. if we see this stuff is dead in the water and derailed that the market will be truly unhappy. the absence of specifics we have seen the leadership fall apart as well. this is a look at market leadership. you see financials right here

were in the leading category but they have since weekend and are akened.g to -- we into theoving back lagging category and perhaps getting ready to improve. comee absence of specifics into the old narratives start to make sense again or will people hold to the idea that rising rates are still going well? jonathan: the most important thing here is that you have wages going up, a 4.7% we have ant rate, economy generating about 175,000 jobs a month. the market is expecting a strong ism. if you have a tight labor market, rising wages and on top positivehe hope for pressure on the economy to move forward, the market is going to

do well even if we do not gets a magic bullet on taxes. we are still focusing on the icing on the cake. the cake is the fact this is a good economy and jobs are reasonably abundant and better than many people are discounting. joe: are you looking from anything from the fed this week? you can say no. jonathan: here is the issue with the fed. if i'm right and wages are going up the way that i expect, the fed is going to be engaged. initially the market will be perfectly comfortable because we normalizing rates is fine but at some point the fed will be forced to get involved in that was spooked the markets. joe: thank you, jonathan. we have some breaking news from bank of america which is sent out a memo regarding president trump's executive orders over the weekend. the firm is monitoring the fallout from the immigration ban.

he is connecting with teammates who may be affected. we will continue to see if there is more addressing it. also earlier we had goldman sachs breaking with the government thing they disapproved of the immigration executive orders on friday. continuing to see more corporate america reaction to the news from over the weekend which we will continue to follow. as world and business leaders react to the executive order at immigration have an interview with jeff on wednesday. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ scarlet: president trump ban.nding the immigration

we spoke to tim valenti today. he was asked for his reaction. one is everyone should take a step back and take a breath. for the most part it is a 90 day moratorium. it is not permanent. it could have been handled better, that is the second point. in terms of people with green cards, people with hard improperly vetted. the ide is taking a 90 day pause selecting certain companies -- countries that do have some history with challenges relating to security is not something that should set off this big of a reaction but i understand the concern. people should step back and take a breath and say it is a 90 day moratorium, not a permanent ban. >> how did you deal with the stigma as governor of minnesota? >> you have to balance competing values. one is an open society, recognizing rights, being a

country of immigrants who have -- against obvious insecurity service. if you miss judge on one of those security concerns it can have very large consequences. it is a tough balancing act in one -- both factors should be given proper weight. how is your organization reacting to the news? >> the organization i represent has not taken a formal position on this. individual companies or leaders might but my company, this is not something we have weighed in on. >> we have seen members of your organization react. how big a deal is immigration to your membership? when you look at the priorities, is immigration reform one of them? >> no. it does not mean it is not an

important issue, it is just not within the scope of the work we are asked to do. the country is a country of immigration. everyone watching the show, unless you are a native born american, is a descendent of an immigration or an immigrant himself or herself. but it needs to be legal and safe. that statement i just made should not be viewed as a radical statement. about me ask you something more germane to your membership. what president donald trump had to say after signing the executive action. >> is almost impossible now to start a small business and is virtually impossible to expand your existing business because of regulation. and the banks to not loan you money. dodd-frank is a disaster. bige're going to do a number on dodd-frank. how should we interpret that and from your perspective what should be done here? >> the president has made a

number of comments about dodd-frank but they have been general so we are not clear on what he means in general. the people have not been confirmed and are not in place. the details are important and yet to be determined. something they might look at our reasonable adjustments to dodd-frank. he still protect consumers and the economy but making sure he also do not suffocate and spiteful things needed in the economy like lending to small businesses and consumers. some tweaks might be in order to strike that balance. >> the sfr is more -- >> it might. if you have the consumer financial protection bureau, which is helpful to consumers in many respects, but it is run by one person without oversight from congress. many of these agencies have those sorts of due process components. we think that would be a good process reform. that was financial

services roundtable ceo and former minnesota governor tim polity. we will have live coverage tuesday at 8:00 p.m. in new york are president trump announcing his picks for the u.s. supreme court. joe: up next, it is already been a wild election season and france with dark horse is becoming the nominees, while the national front leads in some polls. independent candidate is making a serious contention. how have these affected the markets? this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ investors are betting on volatility in european stocks. increased volatility in april. the reason is the first round of the french presidential election is scheduled for april 23. this is the future curve of europe's of vix and it shows a big spike for three months out in april.

it is pricier than those of subsequent months. the price the stag's resuming its climb. because weeresting talk about the clinical risk and it comes to a head on april 23. if no one candidate wins there will be a runoff likely held on may 7. a lot of things to watch for and investors are starting to compare. joe: i'm looking at a way of looking at the u.s. data. we talk a lot about how the data look strong and economic surprises are looking good. but there is a gap emerging between the solve data which is sentiments, consumer surveys and the real data which measures how the economy is actually doing. chart is really telling. the goal line is the surprise index for the soft data. it is surging. people are really excited.

the future is going to be great. the blue line is the hard data, the real economy. that is not really going anywhere. , maybe theconverge sentiment will cause the real data to pick up. people get optimistic and spend more and invest more. or maybe it will revert to the real economy will not pick up and match the sentiment. but either weather is a gap. -- but either way there is a gap. this is the biggest divergence between the measures in six years. a lot of hope being built into the data right now. scarlet: you could say the same thing for companies. they are excited but they will not pin it down with a forecast. the market closes next. joe was saying the street moves on. what streak? the streak in which the s&p 500 is not rise or fall by more than 1%.

-- does it feel like an update? compared to where we were earlier. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ scarlet: we are moments away from the closing bell.

"what'd you miss?" the rally turns into a slump selloff. the president's order on immigration is an concerns that it could be overshadowed by his protectionist policies. i'm scarlet fu. i am joe weisenthal. if you are tuning in live on twitter we want to welcome you to our closing bell coverage. we begin with our market minutes. u.s. stocks closing lower but as joe was saying, it feels kind of like an update because if you look at the intraday chart of the major indexes we did close off our lows and we did see a bit of a recovery in the last 20 minutes or so that brought us back. 6%. s&p only falling . it was down as much as 220 point earlier. joe: it looked like earlier it was going to break it streak but we survived that. scarlet: two of the 11 groups

finished higher. barely, but they did finish with gains. energy shares were the big decliners. here are the big decliners on an individual name basis. 's fourth-quarter results are going to miss estimates on falling demand for devices. the mattress maker lost a key contract. it will no longer sell to mattress firm in the first quarter of 2017. it made up 20% of its revenue. right aid and walgreens we are keeping an eye on because it is under pressure from antitrust regulators. walgreens will pay up to seven dollars a share down from nine dollars. the exact price will be determined based on how many stores they need to divest to satisfy these competition concerns. in airlines, this was interesting. the mx airline index -- amex

airline index tumbling. trump hammered them claiming they were part of why there were's -- there was chaos. people did not buy. off 1.8%. a quick mention of mylan. it is responding to an ftc request for information. buts preliminary right now u.s. investigators are looking into antitrust issues on the pricing of its epipen. it came off of its lows. at governmentk bonds because there was a lot of action there. not so much in developed markets. u.s. action essentially flat. justn 10 year yields down a hair. i want to go to the next board because there is a lot of action

and peripheral europe where political concerns are putting stresses on sovereign fears about greece and whether they will get bailout money. 10 year yields shooting higher. italian yield significantly higher as people concerned about the domestic situations there. and france, lots of concerns about the had of the conservative republican party there. so keep an eye on europe. once again we see these stresses on the rise. not something we need right now. scarlet: you see risk on the back foot. which currency benefits? the japanese yen. it is gaining on all the major currencies. central banks meet this week as well. the fed on wednesday and the bank of england thursday. speculation that president jacob zuma is planning a cabinet

shuffle to tighten his grip on power, and that could include stacking the providence -- finance minister. joe: seems to be a recurring theme. , not a on commodities lot of action but gold did rally on some of the overall market anxiety. dipping a little, down 1%. still about $52 a barrel. overall not a lot of action in the commodities from. scarlet: those are today's market minutes. lithic take a deep dive into the bloomberg. you can find the charts using the function at the bottom of the screen. we mentioned this earlier. it feels like an update only because we came off of our lows. this tracks a percentage move on a daily basis. we continue the streak of not being able to rise or fall by more than 1% at the close. the s&p has not fallen by 1%

since october 11. it is not gained more than 1% since to sever seventh. we're just drifting. -- since december 7. joe: we're going to talk more about volatility in a second. we really are on a remarkable streak of almost no soft. there has been this meme going around saying this is going to be a good year for managers. people are going to go back to funds. but investors seem really skeptical. this is a chart comparing the s&p 500 asset managers sub index. the white line. the blue line is the s&p 500 itself. the last couple of weeks, there has been a massive underperformance of the asset manager companies. investors are not convinced there will be a big rebound in active management. the stocks continued to bleed.

the move does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. scarlet: it is too much of the backs -- pass the cost. cameron.ing us now is first i want to get your take on because people are saying this is something to do with the political situation we're seeing over the last 72 hours. trumpets on the executive order while we were on the air friday. the cna connection -- do you see any connection? cameron: naturally you gravitate towards a cell america fame. we have to distinguish in terms of the executive order between process and outcome. we tend to focus on the outcome which is repugnant to many people, but to be honest with you the morality has generally not been a tremendous driver of investment returns. msci worldday at the

socially responsible index and that has underperformed the broad index over the last five years. as much as we like to invest in terms of doing good, or not doing bad, it generally does not work. there is also a process involved here. the process is more troubling. insofar as we have had an order that came out of the blue without any vetting by the agencies charged with executing it. if you think, what does that mean in terms of trade or taxation policies? it is troubling because those issues are more directly related to corporate profitability. i think you do have to be a little circumspect in how you interpret this. thisou do not want to say represents the end of the world out, weas you pointed

rallied into the close and we still have not gone down 1%. on the other hand, it sets a worrying precedent for how the administration might act in more economically directly related issues. i would also say that if you believe in technical analysis, the s&p put in a technical formation called an out, we rallied into the island reverse it were the gap is higher on a doubt 20,000 day. we went sideways for a few days then we gap lower. so please essentially closed the gap suggests we extend today's move and perhaps break back down to the bottom. scarlet: do you think to some extent we are stuck in this range because we have so many catalysts to come still? trying to figure out where it really means as companies try to sift through as well. we have three central banks meetings in a jobs report on friday. lotron: there is a

economically and politically. i think people are getting to play the cards close to their chest because to quote the old rumsfeld thing, there are a lot of known unknowns. environment -- joe: i want to ask you about volatility. we had an incredibly low banks are to be traits have done incredibly well. on the out a note today bloomberg about what you call the free money trade getting crowded. what are we looking at here in what you see as the ramifications from it? cameron: this is the short interest in the the ex ex exchange rated note which -- the vxx exchange rated note. the s&p 500 volatility index. what we see here is the short interest has gone up tremendously over the last several years.

you have to be a little careful and interpreting the charts because the performance of the etn has been so bad. be open interest goes up. up,t the open interest goes but the last one was three years ago. a huge pile and of people shorting -- trying to short volatility. he also see it in the vix futures would you could say is maybe more the playground of the professionals. when i would say about the vix futures where we could get this information is net shorts are a butrd in absolute terms and a percentage of the open interest, it is nowhere near a record. when you look at the lawns in the vix futures they are higher than at any point prior to last year. with that suggests is there is plenty of people who take what one might say is the common sense approach that this might not last and are trying to buy

and have been relatively unsuccessful. joe: cameron, fascinating stuff. if you're on the bloomberg to check out his notability picks. scarlet: coming up, here why pgm real states has europe and asia offering greater opportunities. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ mark: it is time for first word news. former president barack obama heartened byuote, the level of engagement over the travel ban in communities across the nation. that is according to a statement put out by his spokesman which also noted he disagrees with

religious discrimination of any kind. esther obama says citizens gathered to have their voices heard by elected officials is exactly what the nation expects areee when american values at stake. syria is warning that the safe zone for civilians the president trump has proposed creating could actually be unsafe. the country says the idea it would violate its national sovereignty. wasidea of safe stones ruled out by the obama administration were fears it would put u.s. aircraft in harms way. they're calling all refugees who fled the war in their homeland to return home pledging of the government will meet all of their needs. charged to date with the november 2015 assault the french capital. he was charged in paris after being handed over to french judicial officials by belgian authorities. authorities say he and other

thatct were part of a cell carried out the attacks in paris the guild 130 people. -- killed 130 people. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" clinical uncertainty in the u.s. and europe may drive investors to buy property outside those regions. joining us for a look at the global real estate market is the head of real estate securities. for joining us. real estate is often seen as a haven asset. they expand allocation to alter assets. does donald trump's policies and the way he announces his policy change that dynamic? marc: i don't think so. people have invested in real

estate for many years as part of diversification. real estate is a hybrid between a stock and bond. it has the income-like characteristics of a bond but it has the growth characteristics of an equity-type stock. could provide diversification. it provides an uncorrelated return to a lot of other investment alternatives. joe: there was a great story in the new yorker the other day about all the rich tech and hedge fund people worried about the end of the world, buying property in new zealand and other places that were safe havens. trump aside, do you see that activity picking up, people buying property to diversify themselves not just from a portfolio perspective from -- but from a political respective? comment ofnot individuals. people have built bomb barkers over the years. we see that institutional

investors have been allocating more for real estate. about 10% allocated to real estate. moving up to about 11.5%. sounds like a small number but it is a lot of money coming into real estate. people have been seeing institutional real estate in portfolios for 40 years. direct real estate really helps out the returns of these major portfolios. scarlet: in the same way we have seen wealthy chinese and russians parking lot of money in overseas property markets. other pulling back now because of political concerns in the u.k. and u.s.? marc: we have not seen any sign of the pullback but what we have seen is people coming here for yield. and europe to some extent. they are looking at government bonds, the low rates. you see japanese investors coming here for yield. we have seen some of the australian and european

investors coming here for higher yield than they get from spreads over government bonds. ,oe: looking around the world obviously real estate is an incredible comeback in recent years. what areas are the most exciting to you? marc: the short-term we like what is going on in the united states. we see some growth, we see a market on the institutional side , which is about 95% occupied. when you look at real estate, think of it as your bond portfolio. thick about duration. hotels, student housing, very short turnovers. all the way down to net lease and health care which as a 15 year duration. we're seeing in the u.s. moving from longer-term duration, which we saw health care doing well with interest rates very low, not have a growth in the economy. to an economy which could add more to be short and medium term duration.

could be regional lls, offices, industrial assets. then we shift intermediate. maybe next 12 to 24 months into year. lots of political uncertainty, lots of issues to resolve with brexit. but as that becomes resolved you're going to see some big pops in that market because they are some glaring values over there. scarlet: i want to follow up on what you said about malls. a lot of retailers like macy's have been selling a lot of stores. of an anchorea tenant in a mall is kind of falling apart. we have all these suburban landscapes dotted by empty and vacant malls. what is your thought about how this dynamic changes? marc: there are going to be winners and losers. malls, think of it like a retail store. you cannot keep a retail store looking the same way for 30 years. you have to keep in -- you have

to cosplay change. -- you have to constantly change. malls are going to see competition from the walmarts and amazon and the internet. joe: what else to the thriving malls have in common? to updatejust enough them. is it geographical? marc: all of the above. rightve to be in the demographic zone and have the right populations. you have to have a thriving economy. then you have to have two merchandise. it.o merchandize department stores are kind of the middleman in this business. what amazon has done, they have taken away the middleman and let you go direct to consumer. we do not need as big a mall space anymore in terms of the department store. the utility of those stores has

gone down. but the in-line stores have come up in that you are seeing a lot and interest and activity entertainment in grocery stores, movie theaters. you look at an apple store, it is never vacant. they are changing the dynamic of good shopping centers. scarlet: i know you're off to frankfurt tonight. are they thinking they're are going to be the next financial capital of europe because of brexit? marc: i'm sure a lot of cities are looking for new places to that the next employees will potentially becoming as a result of brexit. there is frankfurt, dublin, harris, amsterdam of the likely candidates. they are all fine for a position in that market. even poland is looking. harris,there will be winners and losers. there are probably some space requirements needed for offices but you're not seeing major

financial corporations close in london. it will be smaller businesses that move out. marc, thank you so much. safe travels. joe: coming up, which kinds of stocks have profited? this is bloomberg. ♪

♪

scarlet: [applause] scarlet: "what'd you miss?" them of trump is pushing a pro-growth agenda. a is ironic that it led to sustained rebound in value-type stocks. tom lee.ccording to this is the ratio between s&p 500 value and growth indexes. as a line goes up, value stocks are outperforming growth stocks. value is recovering from a 15 year low set last january. calmly says potential changes, deregulation and spending growth amount to a policy put option that will benefit value more than growth. think about the industries that president trump is pinpointing. industrials, carmakers. he is definitely not looking at tech companies with the same focus. joe: and the growth stocks do not need growth. facebook and amazon are doing

incredibly well you know the economy has been mediocre. it is really the industries you talk about that need gdp to pick up in the stimulus. definitely a chart to watch. to go back to europe and talk about something we were talking about earlier which is france. this is a chart going back to the beginning of the year of the spread between the french 10 year yield and german 10 year yield. is a measure of credit worthiness. germany seen as the safest haven and europe. france is still low. widening isad clearly a measure of political risk. , fullye is worried wants, for me twice with the brexit and trump stuff. they do not want to make the mistake again. me once,have -- fool fool me twice.

that throws a potential monkeywrench into things. just in general nobody wants -- scarlet: no visibility. everyone is positioned for the most unexpected thing to happen. yield, not like you're getting paid that much to take on french risk. so what is the appeal? scarlet: if you go to eu go there is a chart available of the different probabilities for the three candidates. that will be a deep dive for another day. coming up next, president trump's bid faces bureaucratic roadblocks. this is bloomberg. ♪

mark: it's time now for first word news. washington state attorney general says he's suing president trump over an executive order that suspends immigration from seven countries with majority muslim populations that lead to nationwide protest. bob ferguson announced his lawsuit today, becoming the first state attorney general to announce a legal action against the trump administration over one of its policies. >> the lawsuit is straightforward. asked the court to provide key provisions of president trump's executive order on immigration unconstitutional. mark: the president has repeatedly said the move is aimed at protecting the nation

against extremist looking to attack america and american interests. an act of terrorism, that's how canadian prime minister justin a deadlyescribed shooting at a mosque in québec city. six people were killed during evening prayers and over a dozen wounded with five still hospitalized in critical condition. authorities initially arrested two men but later said just one remains a suspect. prime minister trudeau did receive a condolence call from president trump. as devonte santiago, the last and 80 accused of killing five people and wounding six others at a florida airport this month has pleaded not guilty, after the judge to begin usual step of reading the entire 17 pages dykeman allowed in court with repeated emphasis on the victims names. investigator say santiago, an iraq war veteran, opened fire at a bag claim area at fort

lauderdale hollywood international airport. no trial date has been set. former president george h dubya bush has been released from the hospital according to a family spokesman. bush wasar-old thankful for the prayers and kind messages he received during his stay at houston's methodist hospital in what he described as world-class care from doctors and nurses. mr. bush was being treated for pneumonia. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: let's get a recap of today's market action. stocks fell but came off their lows. all 10 industry groups in the s&p 500 were down but as it turns out, consumer staples finished little changed on the day. joe: "what'd you miss?" president trump has signed an executive order aimed at significantly cutting

regulations for small businesses. the white house said it requires agencies requesting a new regulation to identify to others they will cut. it is a daunting one, experts say killing a regulation is not a simple as it seems. our chief washington correspondent. do regulations work like this, is it just a big pile of them and if you put one in you can take out two? >> no. there have been several efforts in previous administrations to work out something like this, but all in all it's just a repackaging of campaign rhetoric. president trump clearly trying to show what he said he was going to do on the campaign trail. the big executive order that is still making headlines here in washington and on the capital of deals with the temporary travel ban regarding muslim countries. a lot is unwinding here on capitol hill, republicans and

their top aides tell me there's not much support behind the scenes for this effort. somewhatblicans are speaking out against this but still not the kind of republican opposition that would be needed to aid democrats in their efforts to block this. scarlet: and the president also said he will go after between 10 dodd-frank law as well, the overhaul of the banking industry -- he will go after the 2010 dodd-frank law. how are people preparing for this and how are the committees and individual senators and congressmen approaching it? it to a republican member of the senate banking committee. i asked what did he make of the president's comments earlier today. the staffer told me there was no communication between the white house and the senate banking committee ahead of that comment. soda peers that it was an off-the-cuff remark. goes to allustration

larger dynamic that's developed here in washington, and that is that there is no messaging strategy coming from this white house through republicans in the senate and in the house. that of course poses significant challenges for republican lawmakers as they look to work in tangent with this white house on a host of issues, whether repealing parts of dodd-frank or tax reform or what is just around the corner next week, that is addressing obamacare. so on the point about how there's a lack of messaging between the white house and you said the republicans. there was a tweet from matt isdge earlier saying trump not getting any help from the congress, haven't passed a tax cut or obamacare repeal. is that some sort of coded message that they have to get in gear and start passing things?

otherwise the right wing of the party is going to start getting impatient? >> so much of the attention has been focused on is temporary travel ban, but on friday, steve bannon, of top strategist was promoted to the national toprity council to sit with generals and have a heavy seat at the table in terms of foreign policy. put out the question to senator jack reed, democrat from rhode island. let's listen to what he had to sake a >> i don't think it's a very good precedent to set, what they have done essentially is pushed out the senior military advisers, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. types ofin those deliberations, nonpartisan, military advice from a seasoned professional and the general is exactly that person. >> so the democrats pouncing on

this, republican saying they are still in line and still supportive of the majority of what president trump is trying to accomplish. the mechanism, again that disconnect that's developing between people and the messaging coming out of this white house, that is where the frustration lies at this point. schumer said he will asked for a vote today to overturn the travel ban. he said it must be reversed and it is mean-spirited. how does he go about doing that? >> given that he is in the minority party, that really does not face any real shot of happening. if you were to happen, and again it would just be a public way of showing opposition . but given that he's a democrat -- later this evening virtually every democrat in the house and the senate, including senator

chuck schumer, going to be gathered outside the supreme court building, again showing their opposition to president trump's executive order. but talk to people like senator shelby, more conservative members in the house caucus, they are still behind this president. that, this is a message, lack ofion, the messaging is truly becoming an issue for this white house. not everyone in the republican party is on the same page. scarlet: kevin, thank you very much. luber will have live coverage this tuesday at 8:00 p.m. in new york for president trump announcing his pick for the u.s. supreme court. that's at eight what p.m. tomorrow. emerging-market currencies rebounding after fitch cut turkey to junk status. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: "what'd you miss?" expectations versus reality p you can see the idea in in merging markets. , stocks, andets currencies decline today as investors pared down on risk. we have a portfolio manager for the black market emerging -- for the blackrock emerging-market fund. what does it mean as far as risk appetite? >> this is happening at a time in which the global economy is actually accelerating. emerging market economies from a growth perspective have been

accelerating. there is a lot of uncertainty , and we saw some initiatives on immigration. the positive outlook that we ,all a reflationary environment the risk around that pulsating scenario for financial asset mexicois just going up, and the u.s. relationship is now in the equation. camp wherel in the the reflation story is a dominant theme for financial markets. joe: what is driving the reflation? ? is it the commodities rebound? is at the solid data out of china? you hear a lot of talk about reflation. what would you say is causing it

to turn the corner? elements that have been compounding over the past few months. it's a story that started in , not only stabilizing the the rebound also led to rebound in certain commodity with the opec agreement and also here in the u.s., it's going up. manufacturing activity in 2016 has been accelerating. the broadest base on reflationary environments that we've seen. scarlet: i want to bring you inside the bloomberg. this is a chart that you gave us. it's a trade that you have been working on here.

u.s. dollar versus local currency and mexican bonds. what does it say about your outlook? economy hasan pretty strong fundamentals. it is an economy that's very well anchored from a fiscal and monetary perspective. -- interesthave rates have adjusted because of economic stabilizers. this is been driven by the uncertainty around the potential negotiations on nafta. the central scenario here is one in which you are able to start renegotiating nafta with canada, the u.s., and mexico. away all thetakes big negative scenarios from the table. you can start having asset mexico to go up the

interest rates have gone up to a much larger extent and we think convergence among the two is the first stage for positioning in mexican assets that would make sense. joe: the anti-mexico trade is also very crowded. if you look in this chart on the terminal, you can see risk reversal really declining, lots of bets against the peso. is this a situation in which the trade has become so crowded that is just a matter of risk rewards to the upside? at 20.8.now the pesos 22 at somee to point. the outcome of the bilateral negotiations has to be very negative in order to justify these trends. you're seeing a bit of reversal of that trade.

people are starting to be positioning positively on mexico. to ask you about central banks here. i wonder to what extent the fed matters more than turkey central bank or mexico which have been trying to support their currencies but have not really gotten anywhere with that. do they matter in looking at whether the currency can go forward? >> when you think about emerging-market cost at this point, the fed may not be one of the top concerns. there has been significant time to adjust and prepare for an initial cycle of tightening. what is driving monetary policy in countries like mexico and turkey is to a very large extent domestic ills and product dynamics more than the fed. when the fed starts raising rates, as everyone is expecting, there will be some

followthrough, but 25 basis points in the scheme of things, having the interest rates in , that's not the biggest concern at this point. rodriguez, thank you very much. cofoundericrosoft bill gates and warren buffett on immigration and its important role in the u.s. economy, as well as its place in american history. this is bloomberg. ? ♪

scarlet: "what'd you miss?" the tech community has been vocal on president trump's travel ban. warren buffett and bill gates

discussed this in relation to the economy. >> the most important import the u.s. has ever had, by far, is human talent. ashas been to our benefit the hardest working, best and brightest from almost every country of the world have wanted to come to the u.s. if you look at university departments or doctors, engineers, people starting up companies, building jobs, it has been huge strength of hours. we have and always made it super easy for that to work, but it has worked very, very well. so the number going back is netware still a huge beneficiary of human talent. charlie: it has been said we should staple of green card to every diploma. >> i believe that.

we can create multiple jobs around the engineer instead of having to do that outside the thatd states, i believe keeping talent in the country is a great thing. you told me you think the second most important document in america's history after the declaration of independence or perhaps the u.s. constitution or both. >> it's a letter written by two jewish immigrants. in august of 1939, just before a many moved into poland, whose name is not well known, who was born in hungary but went to germany, and he worked in germany with albert einstein. in 1933, i believe both of them left germany and they came to

the united states. and they become united states citizens, and they cosigned a letter to president roosevelt sign iteinstein to because his name carried more weight, and that letter, which saysan see on the internet germany is going to get an atom get tond that we better work on one. and the manhattan project came out of that, and who knows what would've happened to world war ii if he ever had not been so secondly if, and those two had not chosen to immigrate to the united states. ,he united states welcomed them and they may have saved this country. >> so germany did not get it and

we did. >> if we charted three years later, who knows what would have happened? remarkable men, and they were both immigrants. >> you send me a month ago saying you're not worried about the american economy. what i'm worried about is that somehow we will make a mistake in terms of the employment of nuclear weapons or some bad character will buy them or steal them. >> and weapons of mass destruction are out there. it's a tiny probability on a given day, but there are people who wish us ill and would like to kill millions of americans. and there are some psychotics, there are religious fanatics, there are megalomaniacs. the world has a certain number of them and if they get in the wrong position and have the knowledge and ability, there are people who would like to kill

millions of americans, and the weapons are there to do it. einstein said shortly after the launch of what was then called the atomic bomb, i know not with what weapons world war iii will be fought, but world war four will be fought with sticks and stones. and that probability exists, and it's the number one job of the ,resident of the united states to the extent possible, to protect us from weapons of mass destruction. they can exist with individuals, but you don't worry too much about that, but the organizations and a couple of nations, it's the only real cloud on america over time. we will solve the economic problems, but that's number one. scarlet: that was bill gates and warren buffett with charlie rose. as world and business leaders react to trump's latest executive order on immigration, we have an interview with jack

ml on wednesday. joe: it's time for the bloomberg business flash, look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. not just bill gates speaking out against president trump's immigration policy. the blackberry ceo call the u.s. action quite extreme and sudden. he is hopeful the new policy will help in attracting new talent to canada. the mall, amazon ceo jeff these those put out a statement in the last hour saying he does not support donald trump's immigration order. anan confirms it received information request from the ftc is part of a preliminary investigation, in response to a query from bloomberg. the ftc is looking into whether mylan practices related antitrust laws, including whether minor changes made to the bp and effectively shielded from competition for

lower-priced products. mylan is also linked to justice department investigation into price-fixing by generic drug companies. it is unclear if it is the target of that probe. that's your bloomberg business flash. you need toup, what know to gear up for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: u.s. stocks falling along with the rest of the world, those that were not close for the lunar new year. , down onlyd rebound 60 basis points. scarlet: bank of japan will announce its latest monetary policy decision. don't miss that. joe: and some of donald trump's cabinet nominations being voted on tomorrow. elaine chao faces a senate vote to become transportation secretary. scarlet: apple reports

>> you are watching "bloomberg technology." washington state attorney general bob ferguson is suing president trump over the executive actions suspending immigration from seven countries with majority muslim

populations. it is and is the first state attorney general to announce legal action over policy. estebanond santiago -- guiltyo has pleaded not after the judge took in usual step of reading the entire 17 page indictment allowed in court , with repeated emphasis on the victims names. former president obama said he is heartened by the level of engagement over the travel ban and disagrees with religious discrimination of any kind. mr. obama said citizens gathered to have voices heard by elected exactlys and that's what the nation expects to see when american values are at stake. wd former president george h bush has been released from the hospital, saying he is thankful for the prayers and kind messages