tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg February 6, 2017 1:00am-2:31am EST
1:00 am
1:01 am
"bloomberg daybreak." i'm anna edwards. manus: and i'm manus cranny. breaking news across the bloomberg. anna: they are talking about a challenging price environment in fiscal 2018 in terms of the underlying numbers. third quarter after-tax profit, down by 8% to 95 million euros. 106.6 million euros. the forecasts for the fourth quarter yield are down as much as 15%, seeming to be in line with what they gave us previously. they gave a cautious outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2017. diving into the detail this morning, they say they are maintaining their four year profit guidance between 1.3 billion euros to 1.3 5 billion euros.
1:02 am
but this is dependent on the absence of security events. there are some comments about whether they will or will not be expanding into the u.k. manus: there are still cautious and do not have that outlook, that robust outlook. there, a cost-cutting story relative to easyjet. we will be speaking to the cfo, who joins us for the first interview of the day. 5.at is on "daybreak" at 6:4 what is going on in the markets? what we know is this. the question from the market is this, is dodd frank, is that what donald trump is going to do? so far, the etf, money has flowed out nearly 1/4 of $1 billion since the start of the year. it has been a tough start, but what you have seen is global financials actually rally. s&p financials have the best two on friday.ths
1:03 am
the investment bank went up by 4.23%, adding nearly $10 billion in market capital valuation. anna: also, the rising rates environment has been a story we have been talking about for a long time. all country financials are up by 38% year on year. let's bring up the risk radar. this is where the dollar is in the wake of what we heard from president trump on friday. it is pretty mixed. we had that jobs report, a strong number. manus: the market has never believed opec as much as they do now. next long positions on crude market is a record high. it is the financials coming through on the msci story.
1:04 am
gohn got a different shot to the bloomberg chart? anna: we will discuss that during the show as well. bloomberg first word news with shery ahn. shery: good morning. donald trump has started the process for coming up with a replacement for the affordable care act, but says this could stretch into next year. with a longer timeframe than was previously indicated, the comments came with an interview with bill o'reilly that aired yesterday during the super bowl pregame show. >> fairly soon, i think that yes, i would like to say that by the end of the year, at least we rudiments, but should have something by the end of the year and the following year. reporter: the far right candidate for the french presidency has promised a brexit style referendum on eu membership, unless brussels agreed to reform.
1:05 am
national front later marie le pen says the european expanding has failed. >> who could find a satisfaction in the face of a system that has us in chains. it does not work. it ruins us because of the malfunction. that is why, once elected, i will now seeks a restaurant in during the first six months on whether to stay or leave the eu. reporter: deutsche bank borrowed a full-page ad over the weekend to apologize for it serious errors. the ad said legal cases they backed for many years cost billin the lender reputation, trust, and 5 billion euros. the cryan went on to blame problems on the misconduct of a few employees. indonesia's economy expanded
1:06 am
4.94%, below the economists forecasts. it is still undershooting the growth targets of 7% amidst a slowdown in china and lower commodity prices. this is even after the central bank cut rates six times last year to boost lending and growth. the new england patriots have pulled off one of the nfl's greatest comebacks to win the 51st super bowl. the beat the atlanta falcons. they managed to score 31 to claim the trophy in the first super bowl to go into overtime. it is the fifth championship for the most prominent supporter of donald trump. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. you can find more stories at the
1:07 am
bloomberg on top . manus: we were just talking about the dollar-yen levels. the operating profit is 560. we are waiting for toyota a little bit later on. what was the honda rate? anna: it was 1.07. manus: it is all about where these corporate in japan see the dollar-yen. the market expected tobacco to turn prices a little bit higher. let's get into the markets now. sophie is standing by. >> as you put it earlier with donald trump hinting that dodd frank might rest in peace, asian banks are extending the rally in global financial shares. that is helping the regional benchmark hit the 18th month high, stocks in taipei closing
1:08 am
.9% higher, with investors snatching up developer stocks. they see it as a safe haven against the inflation story. up .6% with, chinese insurers leading that. on the shanghai composite, we see agricultural stocks rallying . beijing policymakers shared plans to reform the industry and the asx 200 clothing lower, about .1%. .1%. we are seeing the yen gain ground, but the nikkei 225 is up .3%. japanese banks are a bright spot 53, last iing 112. checked. certainly something to consider. we do have the yuan and taiwan dollar leading the region today.
1:09 am
let's look at the aussi dollar, falling ahead of the rba rate decision on tuesday. the central bank is expected to keep the key rate at 1.5%. anna: a host of central banks still to give us their decisions this week. let's get up to date on the u.s. president trump has been criticized by brother publican criticized by -- both republican and democratic lawmakers. reporter: with donald trump's latest words on russia, the question of moral equivalency is prevalent. not.people would hope mr. trump says yes. >> we have got a lot of killers. you think our country is so innocent? reporter: that was an excerpt from a fox news interview. the reaction from both sides of the aisle was passionate push back.
1:10 am
house majority leader mitch mcconnell said the u.s. is not the same as russia. marco rubio of florida tweeted, when has a democratic political activist been poisoned by the gop, harkening back to the poisoning of the ukrainian president? and liz cheney tweeted that moral equivalence is deeply troubling and wrong. mike pence did come to the aid of mr. trump. >> love, president trump throughout his life, his campaign, and in this administration has never hesitated to be critical of government policies by the united states in the past, but t here was no moral equivalency. >> no moral equivalency from the v.p. the white house sunday lost the bid to reinstate the travel ban on immigrants from seven majority muslim nations after the ninth circuit court of appeals based in san francisco told two states, washington and
1:11 am
minnesota, as well as the white house, to file more arguments by monday. does the executive branch alone have authority on national security? vice president pence says, yes, saying it is quite clear and we are going to win this argument. the white house mysust sway a liberal court of appeals and dianne feinstei says there is no doubt this will go to the supreme court. there is also a development with the dodd frank act. investors over the weekend got to digest the signing of executive actions on friday that start chipping away at financial regulations. he has blamed dodd frank keeping loan originations down, but since 2010, lending is now at a 70 year high. the s&p financial sector got a trump bump friday on the news.
1:12 am
frank action is of course, front and center for the markets. the movers on friday in the u.s., the index ramped by more than 4%. we caught up with the director or trump's national direct and weighed on on how this has affected the banks. >> we want to get the banks working again. we want banks to be back in the lending business. what we think dodd frank has done is it stopped banks for lending to small and medium-sized businesses and to entrepreneurs. anna: gary cohn, there. great to have the on the program. there are many trump themes to pick up on.
1:13 am
let's look at the banking sector first. gary cohn, just talking about how banks have not been lending enough because of dodd frank. manus pulled up this chart on the bloomberg, commercial loans climbing. the loan volumes reaching record highs after the crisis. what do you see in the u.s.? how much sense does this make to you? >> the assumption is that whatever will are place dodd -- whatever will replace dodd frank will make it easier. the real problem since lehman was there was too much debt. that took time for that to be eradicated. households strengthened their balance sheets. banks have been held back by a flatter yield curve, lower volume demand. although things are now changing. balance sheets are strong so household can leverage again. the yield curve is steepening and it improves demand for loans.
1:14 am
so, whether or not the changes to dodd frank make a meaningful difference, we won't really know because i guess loan volumes will pick up now over the next couple years. manus: i think it is fair to say that gary cohn was talking about lending to entrepreneurs. obviously, the chart he is looking at versus the data i have just shown is very polemic. let's talk about printing money back home to the u.s. we have a lovely graphic, which shows the debt sales. apple and microsoft have been ramping up the debt sales and the amount of money held overseas is about $1.77 trillion. is this the next piece of the trump plan? they are cracking on and doing their debt sales anyway. they are not basing their life around legislation. >> again, what is donald trump trying to achieve? on the economic side it is to
1:15 am
raise investment. any policies that could bring cash back home or reduce the level at the base, that should encourage investors and on turnovers to spend on capital, to improve existing capital infrastructure, that is essentially the problem in the u.s. economy. growth has been weak since the crisis. anything to raise investment should, in theory, then raise productivity and spur faster economic growth in the u.s. anna: if the market has been excited by anything optical the trade, it is that the market has become excited about the banking reform and fiscal stimulus. what are your expectations about what he can get through congress? what kind of time horizons are we talking about? >> is important not to get distracted by the social policies. congress is working through the fiscal reform. if we get tax cuts to businesses
1:16 am
to improve investment, if there are modest tax cuts on income, what is the infrastructure spending? the critical point is whether that boosts the supply-side or demand-side. u.s. does not need a fiscal stimulus because it risks being reflationary. it would be a positive if it boosts the supply-side. anna: all that thought, kallum pickering. breaking length coming through on trump and immigration. manus: what happens next to the challenge and counter challenge on trump's ban on seven muslim countries. the next move will be to restore the immigration ban opposed by the u.s. and it is headed for the supreme court. that is the top line. trump is moving to restore the soigration ban by the u.s.,
1:17 am
the next logical step is to go to the supreme court. anna: let's get to your week ahead, then. later today, mario draghi addresses the european parliament in brussels, followed by a question and answer session on wednesday. manus: and the u.k. commons will hold the final vote on the brexit bill to trigger brexit. anna: the final vote for this week. there could be future votes. on friday, president trump meets japanese prime minister abe at the white house. manus: just one extra line on this trump line. it is washington and minnesota, the two states that are going to argue to keep the court blocking ban. a variety of states are involved in this. this is story believe all throughout the morning.
1:18 am
as we get more details, we will bring that to you. anna: we looked at the impact of a weaker sterling on u.k. exporters and may's brexit bill faces its next test. anna: and the threat from the right. the former favorite faces a new challenge. as marine le pen makes her bid for france's top job. anna: and the airline's cautious outlook for 2017. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:21 am
1:22 am
teresa may face is s a fresh challenge today. this as the british chambers of commerce say u.k. companies are feeling the effects of sterling slide. nearly half of the businesses surveyed say costs increases are having a negative impact on domestic slaes margins. -- s: xi jinping we are all learning less, inflation is real, and margins are beginning to be crippled. this is the beginning of the real brexit? >> the economy will have to adjust to the higher inflation that will be coming in 2017 to 2018. if we look back to 2015 in november, when the false start a to take place, it is down by 17%
1:23 am
or 18%. inflation will get to 2.8% this year. i am more worried about businesses than consumers. the economy will grow a little bit quicker. this will help them furnish the inflation with fast incomes. i think firms will be able to pay more than we might expect. not so much of a drag on real incomes. when it comes to exporters, if you buy your inputs in dollars, and your major market is your, you get a squeeze against the u.s. dollar gdp. the other thing to remember is the u.k. is a services economy and these things are not that sensitive to changes in sterling. you have the problem with import costs and the desensitivity to the exchange rate. anna: looking at the politics of this, and you have to be mindful of that when working out your
1:24 am
forecasts, parliament this week will be focused on the committee stage of brexit bill. we have three days of them trying to work out which amendments will be included in the final document they vote on on wednesday. does it get softer through this process? answers tos the these questions, but this is where the focus will be. >> i was surprised there was not more pushback in tehe commons. 2/3 of the commons are pro-eu. there was no additional information on a potential framework for migration between the u.k. and eu after brexit. whether or not we get a stronger push back when it comes to the upper house, they do not have a working majority there. i am not that optimistic. one thing i was hoping for was some gauge in what sort of level, even in numbers totaled, how many migrants would theresa may like to let into the u.k.?
1:25 am
then you could work back and answer, what kind of market access will be u.k. get from the eu? so, that deal still is critical for the u.k. when we understand migration, we understand the deal. manus: the demographics would suggest it is a challenge after 2020, in terms of the aging population. i want to get a sense from you as a u.k. economist, are you surprised from the financial conditions and consumer confidence? financial conditions, this is a bloomberg financial conditions chart. it is healthy. it is certainly in an upward trajectory. does that run with your thinking? does that sustain, or will that hit jumps as well? >> i think that can sustain. i would be more word about the long-term consequences. brexit will reduce potential
1:26 am
growth to 1.8%. in the near term, can bridge and resolve its domestic political problems, which it did. and then with the eu, with the bank of england stepping in to provide liquidity. anna: you think she is nonconfrontational? >> at the start she was. we have somes saw, dangers from brexit, but not in the near term. the economy is mostly done in a non-brexit scenario, which is the critical point. consumers have been more resilient than expected. the august stimulus had a very quick effect. anna: think you very much, kallum pickering. he stays with us. the campaignk off trail and marine le pen revealed her plan to lead the eurozone.
1:30 am
1:31 am
process. week was a ruling last that halted immigration restrictions. trump says that he will restore the ban and the sense is that the case will make it all the way up to the supreme court. droppedyanair earnings and they said they are cautious on targets and there is a stutter in the economy. outlooktalk about the and brexit later in the program. set for a market is bumpy ride. biggest oil crude trainer is expected to move and
1:32 am
that is for this year. out on a le pen sets 144 point program, including leaving the euro and holding a referendum. find satisfaction in has use of a system that in chains and ruins us from malfunction. -- malfunction? referendum one a whether to stay or leave the european union. >> the french race has been -- blown open from a scandal. buss great to have you on program. there are things that markets
1:33 am
could be alarmed about. there are surprises with tone and you have a party that is on this extreme and there is a move to moderate and buckled down to the base. the speech was very trump-like and she presented france as a country that would be overrun by foreigners and the euro would chill the economy. it was a tone that was more radical and hard right. it was a surprise. neede does not necessarily to win the election to get a process of change. let's talk about the contender
1:34 am
with what he has done with regards to the family. how has that changed and would thishave brushed some of off? >> the times have changed in france and you are allowed to higher relatives. they have to have done work. that is what this is about and there is a sense that you could to away with this and he has decide what to do and the party is totally split and will be buckled down and defend himself? he will have to make that decision. >> thank you for joining us. we are joined here on the set.
1:35 am
and whatk about europe is the biggest threat. so, where do you see the threat coming from? >> italy. france presents more opportunity than risk. the front runner is reminiscent thehis email scandal and he is a point is that reformer and this is what france and, if itise growth reforms the way it did, if it does the way that thatcher reforms britain, that would be good news. with french story
1:36 am
business trying and succeeding .n finding things that work >> he is a centrist and the left voters who would be tempted could be kindled into going towards him. he does not have the history or the scandal and some newer voters may be encouraged. --trying to understand understand the risk is what we do here. the bonds have had the worst see theand you can tension there is in the bond iskets and marine le pen
1:37 am
doing it. the markets are still very on the easy about outcomes. >> you take a look at the fixed income market and it is stronger expectations, but this is political risk that we have seen with markets picking winners and losers from a potential doomsday scenario. there is a small probability of and we should change our focus towards the potential of snapping elections and the collection of populist parties that could break the threshold and have real concerns in markets. invoked change. do you think that you need to consider some may not get into
1:38 am
power? what is the probability that europe splits? >> ok. >> it seems like a small probability of 5%. shifting does seem more likely and the populace say that globalization is a car that has overrun people. the solution is to reverse the car over the people. you are just doubling down on haveeople and you need to countries club together and you have to have compensation mechanisms for the individuals in society that do not have ofess to the benefits
1:39 am
globalization. >> that is a depressing metaphor and a point that is well made. purchasese the asset lasting towards the end of this year and where do we stand on the tapering with all of the political risk? we are getting into possibilities of some sort of threat to financials across europe. tapering?e stand on behind with years central banking terms being a little more. pitfalls andtical you could have the end of and the by 2018
1:40 am
critical danger between now and then is, as the unemployment rate falls, it it will settle a base case and pressure ofhe across the eurozone that is distributed in different ways. france,y like italy and inflatione underlying distributed and pressure on the ecb that we have not seen. >> thank you. that shows the reach beyond the definition of your title. berlin. 7:40 in trade andking at a
1:41 am
1:42 am
and they will continue to jawbone the dollar down. you also see this holding steady and you can see when the bank of in and did this, catching the curve. a look at the board of commodities. copper gaining. down and i turning know that you will talk about oil, but keep your eyes on crude, which is rising. >> thank you for that great roundup. oil is at nearly $54 a narrow
1:43 am
1:44 am
it is the it gets and latest rigged data. the nexte count and indicator would be the opec report that would reflect on the data. history tells us that time passes and the compliance will wane off. here and wegood will be there for the next couple of days. remember, if you are a bloomberg customer, you can watch this on television and this is one of those.
1:45 am
we have an all where you can see all of the video and you can pick up all of the graphics and you can talk to us. on au could watch us regular television. coming up on their program. a fall in profits for the third quarter. he is ordered a sweeping review and blames it on the -- we are looking at the first appearance in the european parliament. it is his current one. he will defend quantitative easing. stay with us.
1:49 am
>> welcome back. early on monday and late on sunday nate. futures are not changed and they boost from the talk around ripping up. frank. this.is a review of boughtsche bank advertisements in german newspapers to apologize serious errorsand they said that said thereputation ceo. they went on to blame the problem on the misconduct of a
1:50 am
few employees. ,loyd's has to pay more according to people who have to -- you are familiar with the metal -- matter. the contrasting performances of the banks. the key safety systems have emerged as the leading bidder for takata. sweden isker of interested in purchasing parts of the business if they need to sell business units. is looking forr a buyer. that is your bloomberg business flash. inryanair has a drop
1:51 am
earnings and says they are cautious about targets. here is the cfo. it is great to have you with us. you are cautious and cautious risks and is the forecasting horizon that constricted these days? guidance andaining thes a good performance of business and we have guided them havethe industry and we and they are getting
1:52 am
1:53 am
1:54 am
and theynt aircraft are working hard to negotiate with the volume discounts coming true. thatwant to ask you about us on what it takes. there will be opportunities to grow. what is it? >> one of the benefits is that the sterling is weaker and we are getting a lower cost and that helps us. to 20 millionow
1:55 am
1:56 am
and this may have an and it is how we grow in this market. sharey have 15% market and there are things that we will do. >> are you thinking about scrapping the u.k. and domestic groups? is something we can do. we have three domestic u.k. routes and it is a relatively small part of our business. is a business we want to operate undern that. plan wea contingency
1:57 am
2:00 am
2:01 am
begin and debate over the legislation. welcome to bloomberg. it is our flagship morning show. are getting some data out of germany right now with factory orders surging. so, we have the month by month increase on factory orders and the estimate was 0.7%. you look at the year on year the german factory numbers are surging and
2:02 am
investment good demand at the end of last year continued into orders atquarter with 5.2%. it is a typically volatile series of numbers and economic expansion is accelerating with a well at orders boding the start of this year and we will get industrial production data. >> there was a quote on low value and a warning about a deal. this will reinforce the arguments with the low value. we will have a conversation and the this day
2:03 am
fourth-quarter profit will be ofking at the hallmark cost-cutting and these are hallmarks. he will join guy johnson. up from action is year earlier. that conversation is on the way. >> we have futures and we had a strong session with a conversation around what trump will to with the banking sector and it looks like a bit of a pause. andinancials went higher
2:04 am
pricing and was in there was a nice little bump that tells a story this morning andyou have the dollar down the real dollar-trump trade markets stand up as the goes the longest and believes reduction.ill affect >> we were getting told earlier andt geopolitical tensions it has been a long time with cuts and risk.
2:05 am
let's get the bloomberg news. >> hello. trump says the replacement process could stretch into next year and it is longer than previously indicated. there was a comment with bill o'reilly that aired during the super bowl pregame show. >> i think that, by the end of somethingwe will have within the year and the following year. >> the candidate for the promised ahas , unlesstyle referendum brussels reforms. she said the european experiment has failed. >> who can find satisfaction in the face of a system that has us
2:06 am
chains and ruins us. i will announce the organization on whether tom stay or leave. >> the indonesian economy expanded. the economy is still undershooting a target of 7% in china and lower commodity prices. it has boosted lending and growth. the patriots have pulled off the greatest comeback to win the super bowl. score 31 points the mosteply and
2:07 am
prominent supporter, president trump, has congratulated them. you can find more stories at our website. this is bloomberg. let's check in on the markets. we have a global rally and financial shares extended and regional stocks trading at a investors and haveruction stocks and we stocks jumping the most in a 7.5%.with a gain of composite closed up
2:08 am
2:09 am
.> thank you for that trump has criticized republican on hisocratic lawmakers comments about prudent. moral question is on equivalency and whether u.s. action is morally equivalent. you think the country is innocent? excerpt fromn sunday. the reaction was passionate push back. mitch mcconnell says the united states is not the same as russia marco rubio said, one has a political activist been poisoned? that moralsaid
2:10 am
2:11 am
mike pence says it is clear and they are going to win. feinstein says that there is no doubt that this will go to the supreme court. in thes a development dodd frank act. blamed dodd-frank for keeping loan origination's down. enacted, act was lending is now at a high. financial sector got a bump on the news. now, the dodd-frank action is front and center for the markets news with thethe brokerage index up.
2:12 am
>> we caught up with the former goldman sachs ceo. they talked about the affect it had on the banks. bankswant to get the working again and get them in the lending business. .t has stopped lending head ofng us now is the asset allocation. let's start our conversation review this and they heard that the argument was -- up a has picked
2:13 am
functioning banking system and it is up significantly and there crisisnse of financial decadegoes back half a and we are talking about taking regulations off and there are with unraveling of legislation. hasnow that dodd-frank stymied markets and the answer review anda proper large banks were made safer and aboute to be careful
2:14 am
2:15 am
2:16 am
wraps. bloomberg, there is a correlation with the bond market and it has been almost lockstep and in syncopation. of aave the beginning relationship that went sour. do you think that the dollar will trade lower? he is jawboning the dollar. as good mercantilists, you want to keep your currency competitive. there is a big rise and it has
2:17 am
had a major impact on companies in that sense. you knew to make sure there is not another rally from here and the second point is the european bondh the dollar reacts to difference and, if you put that .f, you would see that that is narrowed. >> that tells you the dollar is on less firm ground than it was. us.tay with
2:21 am
2:22 am
cautious about stuttering economies causing tumbles. this compared to the analyst predictions of 102 million euros. deutsche bank bought advertisements over the weekend to apologize for the errors. the cases cost about 5 million euros. they went on to blame the problems on a few employees. bidder for takata. there interest in purchasing parts, if the company files for bankruptcy protection and they
2:23 am
are seeking a buyer after a safety recall. that is your bloomberg business flash. >> thank you. expansive monetary policy would boost monetary service. >> mario draghi is going to defend the case in european parliament. so, you have the latest thoughts and theary policy expansion in the eurozone. the rightnside, is line being walked? yes.r the moment,
2:24 am
periphery is closer to germany and, if it had not happened, the spreads would not be as narrow. it isowed the spread and relatively modest. month,look at the past there is a widening of the price , for think it is early and it isu mentioned difficult to walk away and the conditions are not there. >> people talk about pricing risk and it is italy and the element ofe
2:25 am
what are the consequences when you look at european risk. a carries the biggest think it isk and i generally agreed on with an issue of how to price the risk. >> that goes back and it shows you the underpriced. is the italian underpriced? my senses that the pressure on the spreads will come through there will be a basis point
2:26 am
rise with a broader european spread move when markets start .o spread what is the ecb likely to do? >> interesting question. it is interesting with what has he sounds like he is trying to do a deal here and we have to find reasonable rules. winning this over was never part of the battle. right, but you have theretest government and is a statement of aspiration. andill be an edgy style
2:27 am
2:29 am
i've spent my life planting a size-six, non-slip shoe into that door. on this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. but these days it's phones before forks. they want wifi out here. but behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. wifi pro from comcast business. public wifi for your customers. private wifi for your business. strong and secure. good for a door. and a network. comcast business. built for security. built for business.
2:30 am
♪ guy: good morning and welcome. you are watching bloomberg markets. i am guy johnson alongside matt miller in berlin. what are we watching. france is in focus. marine le pen declares her candidacy with a promise of a referendum. can she win in the second round? on the same page, the finance ministers schaeuble blocks central banks for a euro that is too low for germany. will mario
43 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
Bloomberg TV Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on