the deregulation debate. the ecb says a relaxing the rules is the last thing we need. manus: blocked in britain. the speaker will block the u.s. president from addressing parliament. ona: francois fillon clings and angela merkel falls behind for the first time since 2010. manus: the biggest bank releases earnings. ♪

anna: welcome to bloomberg daybreak. i am anna edwards. manus: some breaking news from banks to oil. kicking off with bmp. anna: reporting numbers. they have missed fourth-quarter net profit. it came in at 1.4 4 billion euros. the estimate was 1.6 3 billion euros. it was a resilient business. the q4 trading revenue rising. but the pretax profit is down by 36%. they are booking a few items as well. booking goodwill at their polish unit. restructuring costs in their belgium -- belgian and australian units.

they are trying to get to or targeting levels. they are also talking about caustic calving and investment in technology. laying out the -- they are also anding about cost cutting investment in technology. missing estimates in the fourth quarter. manus: this is one of the big nordic oil companies out there. net loss in the fourth quarter. $40 million. taking on an impairment charge. fourth-quarter net loss for statoil. capital expenditure. ceo wants to bring it down.

for exploration, spending about 1.5 billion euros -- $1.5 billion. the government is one of the biggest shareholders. positive be cash flow in 2017. those are the top line in the numbers. we will have a conversation exclusively with the statoil ceo. he will be joining the daybreak team at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. the two-year anniversary since he sat down with us when he took the helm. anna: risk radar. let us show our viewers where we are. asian stocks have been a touch weaker. topix down. new zealand dollar and australian dollar making the news overnight. the new zealand dollar up on

inflation expectations. the central bank governor is stepping down in september. telstra yen currency -- no change in interest rates from the rba. manus: keeping an eye on the bond of markets. fed is hawkish. march is on the table. government bond yields hitting the lowest level in two weeks. for a variety of reasons. the european situation as well. slightly more risk off in the market. snp unchanged at the moment. anna: let us get the bloomberg business news. the trump administration will return to court today to argue it has brought authorities over -- it has broad authority over national security.

justice department lawyers are to appear before a panel in san francisco to seek the reversal of a lower court ruling that puts it the executive order on hold. the move stranded refugees, triggered protests and handed the new government its first crucial test. drop will not be allowed to adjust the u.k. parliament during a state visit to britain -- that is the view of john virgo following calls by lawmakers to not give to the u.s. president the honor of addressing both houses of parliament after the introduction of a ban on people from some majority muslim countries traveling to america. this imposition of the migrant band, i would myself have been strongly opposed to an address by president trump in westminster hall. after the imposition of the migrant band by president trump,

i am even more strongly opposed. >> new zealand central-bank governor will step down when his term ends in september. the deputy governor spencer will for six months until a permanent successor is appointed in 2018. appointed in 2012, the governor 's time has been marred. the reserve bank of australia has left interest rates unchanged as a stronger global backdrop boosts a commodity prices. the cash rate was kept at 1.5% of 28ecast of -- by 27 economists of bloomberg. reaffirming the forecast predicting the economy to rebound after an unexpected contraction in the third quarter and headline inflation to rise above 2% this year. steeredmay has easily

off efforts. mps voted down to opposition amendments that would've required administer -- they also shut down attempts to make may government inuk's scotland, wales, and northern ireland. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . i am shery ahn and this is bloomberg. manus: thank you. before we get to the bmp story, -- on thee lines from value of the euro and mario draghi defending the currency yesterday evening. the french people do not want to apropos what

marine le pen may be suggesting. higher debt level would not produce french growth. interview is from an in france. bmp has missed estimates for the fourth quarter as earnings fell. net income doubled to 1.4 billion euros from a year earlier but that fell short of the 1.6 billion that analysts expected. to bloomberg's caroline on the potential impact of brexit and trump's work. ,> if we go back to the g-20 they said any new regulation should have no material impact. if that ise to see in force. if one remains in that framework, it should remain manageable. caroline: this puts european

banks at a disadvantage. >> the world is bigger than just europe and the u.s. there are 20 states that have to come up to an environment that makes it possible for their banks to operate. caroline: you do not see any impact. >> it is too early. things are evolving. caroline: one thing that is coming soon is the triggering supposedly of article 50. are you planning to move some london staff to paris? isoline: our headquarters there. we have to stay close to our clients to serve our clients so that is typically what we will see once we know more detail. the main question on the moving comes from people that have their headquarters activities in the u.k. and who might really

need to pull those people out of london and into other areas. we are first a european bank. we already have activities in paris, belgium, and the netherlands. going to you're not change the balance after brexit? we will have to see. the bank has gotten a huge boost since donald trump's election on the hopes that deregulation would hit the industry. gary: has said regulation has prevented the banks from lending. took aario draghi different video yesterday in brussels. >> the last thing we need at this point in time is a relaxation of regulation. extent, the fact that we are not seeing the

of significant financial stability reached is the reward of the action that legislators and regulators and supervisors have been undertaking since the financial crisis. we are joined by paul donovan. global chief economist at ubs. deregulation and dodd-frank will be review. here is mario draghi saying this is the last thing we need. is the playing field for banks potentially becoming more unbalanced in terms of what the banks might be able to do for the u.s. economy versus european banks? >> there is a question. because the u.s. changes regulations that an american bank in europe faces changed regulation. and the fact that some banks are

still global mean you have to abide by the toughest standards wherever you are in the world. there is another question. acte see the dodd frank being repealed or changed, that easing of regulation is just like a rate cut. what does the federal reserve do in response to this with either quantitative or monetary policy? there are three pillars. if you are going to ease on one of the three, is that going to change the first reaction and what does that mean for the u.s. banking system? anna: we are talking about rate cuts and building walls across the mexican border. all kinds of activities that could be seen as stimulative to the economy. theare contrasting that to 1930's. proposal of the fiscal , in particular around the infrastructure section, this is

likely to be more inflationary. the impact is on the inflation because not on real gdp we are not an economy that is showing signs of full employment. the big change in the u.s. last year was at the low skilled started to get pay rises for the first time in roughly a decade. that is a clear signal in my view that the economy has reached capacity and any attempts to push it further do more to inflation -- anna: the week numbers -- the weak numbers that we got on friday are not a concern to you. >> this is something called a fed wage tracker index. that has skyrocketed in the last two years. doesn'thy don't -- why

the fed flag that up as a benchmark? the markets have been so focused on the jobs reports. it is not actually what you're supposed to be looking at. you need a far broader range of measures. great to get your thoughts so far on the program. manus: we are staying put you. that is what the rba has done. heaping rates on hold but ubs says it is unlikely to move it all this year. anna: francois fillon says he will not quit the race. manus: a miss from statoil. ceo about thee earnings this morning. that conversation at 7:00. this is bloomberg.

♪

anna: welcome back everybody. kong, 2:17 p.m. in the afternoon. the hang seng pretty flat. let us get the bloomberg business flash. statoil has reported an unexpected loss in the fourth quarter. adjusted net loss which includes financial and other items was 40 million dollars. had aerage forecast profit. later in the program, we will speak exclusively to the ceo of statoil. at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. combine to create one of the world's largest investors

in hegemon -- in hedge funds. kkr will combine with prisma with palamco. it will vault them to the higher end of the hedge fund industry. data -- combine withpartial got exceeded the previous monthly records. according to people familiar with the matter. they say regulators estimate new loans rose last month to a range that could beat the $364 billion record. the credit search highlights the challenge policymakers face as -- that is your bloomberg business flash. the aussie dollar left ratesthe rba unchanged. it comes as bloomberg launches another debris.

-- another daybreak. anna: good afternoon to you heidi. what is the takeaway? i want to say this is the first daybreak because we are setting the agenda for the asian trading day. we take a look at the news. from the rba. no surprise. we had not heard from the central bank for about two months and they held rates on hold. no fireworks. philip speaking to script. it was always more of a fact-finding mission in terms of having a look at the wording of the segment. all in all, it seemed quite upbeat. did reaffirm its growth and inflation forecast saying we

could expect to see gdp growth trending at about 3% over the next couple of years and it expects inflation to pick up to about 2%. theraction in the gb -- in gdp in the third quarter. a lot of this is hinged on the commodity story. really surging. to they are relying on this give the improvement when it comes to growth. almost sort of take two of the commodities on the mining boom in australia. when it comes to the aussie dollar, you spoke earlier about the spike from this statement. job earning going on. the rba says this complicates things, the stronger currency, especially when it comes to the things they are trying to do which is transition away from the reliance on mining and focuses more on services. you still see that strength resilient for the aussie dollar.

it is up about 7% your today. -- year to date. ubs' anderson -- do not be surprised if the rba stays on hold all year. bloomberg's top rated rba analyst expects a cut in august. he expects the commodities rally to peter out. anna: never boring. haidi lun is the anchor of that program from sydney. manus: she is in there early. australia's trade minister will be joining daybreak australia. manus: staying with the asia-pacific. asian equities decline after the

yen led a rally in haven assets. lyrical uncertainty is rising affecting markets around the world. -- political uncertainty is rising, affecting markets around the world. i think the dollar is the underlying driver here. >> the dollar has absolutely been the driver in the last few weeks but since sunday, there has been a shift. it has become more focused around europe and french elections in particular. what we have seen since the weekend is dollar-yen has slumped while the dollar and have done pretty well. a lot of the crosses technically -- it looks like the yen can rally much further. china.alking about it may have exceeded a monthly record, the loans.

i think that was confusing to people. there have been measures to slightly tighten policy in the last couple of weeks. and then we get a headline about record lending again. it is causing confusion in the market. the main explanation is the recent tightening has been more about removing excess liquidity in the market free chinese new year. 70% of the credit in china is bank loans which is connected to the benchmark rate. there has not been too much tightening yet. i am not too surprised by the new lending record. manus: let us see if they can keep the fuel in the fire. stay with us -- staying with us is paul donovan. you have a bandwidth for chinese

growth of 6%-7%. you said you're not too worried. my proposition is that we are obsessed about whether it is 6.5% or 7%. why are you less obsessed? >> because it does not matter as much to the rest of the world. the way china is growing with the credit, the careful management of growth ahead of is party congress, what this basically doing is creating a very inward looking economy. my question as a global the world selles more to china at 7% growth if this is the nature of their growth. the answer is not that much more. the difference is fairly academic. a differentat is story because the u.s. is growing more strongly. you know how americans are, they are spending all of the time. doing that are not

because this is more of a housing, infrastructure, investment story. anna: on the other side of the pacific, how easy is it to invest in china and they are doing a lot to open their doors. foreign investors are still worrying though. theyare seeing signs that will not want to get involved because they cannot get out. people invest because they want profit. they want to get money out. and the capital controls china is imposing leaves things in question. as well as lack of transparency. inch is somewhat heightened this environment in china at the moment. anna: paul donovan will stay with us. manus: earnings from the world's biggest insurer and we speak to with your cfo schneider.

for bnpeen a miss paribas this morning and statoil. we have that conversation at 7:00 a.m.

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anna: welcome back. 6:30 a.m. in london. dollar-yen fairly stable. 111.79. we are waiting for breaking news. manus: i love your optimism. as we wait for the numbers to break, we are looking for a dividend of 8.25 euros. less catastrophe in the world. must come in the must come in t

half hour. manus: schneider will join anna and myself. we will be catching up with the munich re cfo. dividend, 8.6 euros. the number -- the market was for 8.25.r a .25 -- the landscape is changing. in that context, there is much to talk about regarding the shifting movement in the market. 8.6 in dividend. we wait for the net income numbers to come across the terminal. let me open this up for you in terms of the other information. they have a variety of things to say. i am going to wait for proper details. net income, 500 million. that is a miss.

it is a miss on the net income. anddends is a nice comfortable number rewarding shareholders. anna: let us get to today's version of daybreak. let us have a look at some of the stories. the cover story is around greece. the imf's slamming greece's saying the government will not come close to meeting fiscal targets. butce is making progress has stopped short of making any decisions about financing the next stage of the country's bailout. the imf has continually said there needs to be more debt forgiveness for anything to progress. otherwise, there is no debt forgiveness. the next story. statoilstatoil -- emp -- 500 million euros.

the market was expecting 630. we have bp numbers. they hit the tape at 7:00 a.m. u.k. 10. focuses on the race. francois fillon says he is sorry for employing his wife and children. the former favorite is now running third in the polls. manus: markets. risk off yen. naomie: -- : msci asia-pacific index is pretty much unchanged. the shanghai composite is lower. political uncertainty infecting markets across the globe. let us take a look at gmm to see how this is playing out across asset classes. you can see a bit of a mixed picture across indices across

asia in terms of the equity space. space, the at the fx euro is down for a second day. weaker against the aussie and the kiwi. the aussie has raised losses. the kiwi is rallying after inflation expectations jumped. that currency is up for a fourth day against the dollar. the 10 year treasury yield is lower down two basis points. the biggest drop in more than two weeks. talk about the flight to safety. yields coming down in the asian on to space. in the commodity space, oil rebounding and downward pressure on industrial metals. this is the msci asia-pacific index. prettyex overall was much unchanged. real estate and utilities consumerming energy,

discretionary leading the losses. and talking again about flight to safety. you mentioned the yen. dollar-yen, 111.83. it jumped 0.8% in just the last session. and gold, the highest since november, taking a bit of a breather after three straight days of gains. anna: angela merkel is falling behind in the polls for the first time since 2010 underscoring the uncertainty for her bid for reelection. isus: francois fillon seeking to save his bid for the presidency. is us go to caroline who following all things in paris. francois fillon maintaining his candidacy and asking for two weeks to fill or kill his bid. caroline: that is what he was asking last week.

two weeks to go in order to fix his credibility. the press conference was very much on the french radar last night. it was operation transparency. he disclosed everything go bank account he has, every single real estate and the value of the houses. that he owns. he says his wife paid -- his wife's pay was perfectly justified. and the jobs he asked for his children were perfectly legal. acknowledgedhe that this created a lot of ethical questions in the minds of the french people so he wanted to apologize. : my working with my wife and children, i prioritized a trust relationship that today is met with defiance

and it was a mistake that i deeply regret. i want to present my apologies to the french people. caroline: and when francois fillon was asked if he was worried about his recent drop in the opinion polls, he said in any case there is no plan b and the opinion polls will not make me change my mind. i mean to win. attentionus turn our to the national front party's project coordinator. that is later this morning. he will be joining the european open team. you can catch him on bloomberg radio at 20 past the hour. matt is in berlin. in germany, chancellor merkel and the latest polling data. what is the significance? matt: the first time she has followed behind the social 2000 10. since

she is knowledged yesterday in a press conference with her allies that she does face a formidable opponent in martin schulz and she will respect him during the upcoming battle that they will wage. we spoke exclusively with the minister president of an rw -- of nrw. an important figure in the spd. they are currently in a grand coalition. she would think about the possibility of another grand coalition possibly joining the greens or the extreme left party in germany. this is what she had to say. >> i think it depends. i made a very clear after the last election that we will not tie ourselves to a particular outcome. it is clear that we do not want a coalition with the afd.

so we need to see in the end what can be achieved but even then, you cannot just combine majorities randomly and see what comes out of it. we need to look at the policy programs. i am skeptical about the left party not least because of its attitude towards it europe and nato. those are important issues to us as social democrats. the left party would have to move towards us significantly. matt: the spd does not feel like they can work with the left and they are not looking forward to another coalition with angela merkel's party. the polls show they may have a chance to win this election. manus: matt miller and caroline. matt in berlin and caroline in paris. is paulin london

donovan from ubs still with us. the shifting politics of europe. focusing on france. my question is this -- the ability of francois fillon to sustain himself in this campaign is under pressure. the next 48 hours will be critical to arbitrate whether he stays or goes. >> in the broader picture, the concerns of the markets are essentially about marine le pen's position rather than the alternative candidate. is this ist remember a two round vote. thirdr francois fillon is or fourth is less relevant than what happens in the second round. is he a credible challenger if marine le pen wins the first round and we have a race in the second round which prevents an anti-establishment, anti-euro candidate from winning the presidency. anna: on the bloomberg, we have

with lacqua less a -- lech walesa. he said that if marine le pen wins and angela merkel loses, then the eu will fall apart and we have to be ready for this. and you said we do not need to be ready for this. >> when i travel internationally, the further one it reflects ape, lack of understanding about the political will to stay together. if you look at the opinion polls in france and they have a dubious track record that there is a strong majority in favor of the eu and one that has grown since the u.k. chose to leave. there may be an anti-establishment sentiment but not to the extent that france would leave your. we should not disguise the consequences if any country leaves the euro.

i think the thing then collapses. it becomes a rapid domino affect. manus: if you look at the german story, angela merkel calls behind the social democrats for the first time since 2010. does this raised the specter that scholz could be the next chancellor? they have 30% and angela merkel tips below that. europe andchange for globally. the case can be made that angela merkel is currently the leader of the free world because there are not many other candidates for that position right now. there is an issue in terms of global the bolo missy guys she has because -- in terms of global diplomacy because she has great experience. these are opinion polls and there are margins of error as we discovered last year.

it is too soon to be speculating on this sort of a shift. manus: when you see a spread like the franco german spread, the italian spread, all of the spreads are rising. zenithe nowhere near the of the crisis but they are rising. is the market still underpricing the political shift? >> the issue is here when we see the spreads rising, there may be political risks or economic risks, but we also have rising inflation in europe which means that at some time, mario draghi will have to admit to his complete addiction to easing and go cold turkey. if we do not get the support, the underlying economic fundamentals will start emerging more strongly. i don't think that is necessarily about politics. anna: will --

the germans do not want a weak euro. may be requiring a degree of sophistication which will be difficult to get into 140 characters. anna: great to see you this morning. if you are a bloomberg customer, you can watch the show using tv go. you can also follow all of our charts, functions, and message of us. there it is demonstrated. show, aoming up on the lot more big earnings conversations to be had through the day. at the top of the next hour, we speak exclusively to the ceo of statoil as they take a $2.3 billion -- because of the long-term pricing in the market. and then we speak to you and agree -- to munich re cfo.

anna: welcome back. here in london, it is 6:48 a.m. let us get a bloomberg business flash. statoil reporting an unexpected loss in the fourth quarter after deepening down on its u.s. shale assets. was $40sted net loss million. missing the average forecast of eight $680 million profit. program, we will speak exclusively to the statoil ceo. he will be joining us on daybreak. has posted its fourth quarter estimates that missed the target.

it fell short of the 1.6 billion analysts expected. the lender also laid out a multiyear plan to lower cost and boost investment in technology. at the same time, the cfo said the bank will take a wait and see approach to donald trump's review of the dodd-frank regulatory framework. we will have to see. if you go back to the g-20, the ones that gave guidance with respect to banking regulation, it said any new regulation should have no material impact. we will have to see how that happens. sophie: that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: thank you. back to banking. back to basics. a good start of the year. shares soared the most since june after it unveiled a new buyback program forecasting growth and net income interest.

anderson is the cfo. thank you for joining us. well done. great set of results. the market wants to know the kind of buyback program -- can you assure the market that we are so strong i can see that continuing into 2017? >> it is the right question to ask. when you look at capital levels across european banks we are one of the few with a large by that. we were in a fortunate position to have a large excess capital position and we feel very confident in our by that. this is the third year in a row we have done buybacks. growth andto fund pay out excess capital. i would prefer to fund more profitable growth but at the moment, we can do both and we do not see that changing. anna: what is the growth scenario?

what kind of growth can you achieve? >> last year, we achieved 5% growth across the group. i would not be surprised if we deliver something close to that in 2017 as well. we are taking shares in norway and sweden. we are growing up of the market. arctic growth a couple of percent. we are growing that in double digits in both sweden and norway. we seem to be gaining traction. manus: talk to me about costs. you see substantial cost opportunities. the cost to income ratio is above 50%. the nordic average is lower. >> i will correct you a bit. we are at 47.9%. there you go, you are still above average. >> we are still above average.

we brought down absolute costs every single year for the last five years and we will continue to do so. we do not manage cost income ratio. it depends on the business mixed year. mix then ourferent peers. we still need to bring costs lower. we continue to bring down costs. when of the ways you are trying to tackle the negative interest rate environment in denmark is by diversifying the income stream. wealth management seems to be part of that. it is a crowded field with banks trying to get in there. how much more can you do on that diversification story? >> i think we can do a lot. it is a crowded field because it is attractive. we feel that in the last couple of years we have not been able to use the scale of the business

well enough. we have been punching below our way. that is why we announced a wealth management unit last year. now that is fully up and running. in 2017 good potential and onwards. it is about picking up the pace for us. manus: there is one story at the top of the agenda for everybody. the proposition that donald trump will go on to regulate. we understand some officials have contacted the fed and said pull back a little on your discussions regarding basel. if dodd-frank is reviewed significantly, how will the consequences play out for you? , thereou look at trump are several fx. us, we are a little bit conservative in our approach.

let us not celebrate too early. there are some elements that are ok in terms of the deregulation agenda. what is important for us is a level playing field and we do not get a u.s. deregulation that is not hobbled up by a european deregulation as well. us see what the concrete measures will actually be. that it hasdoubt thrown things up into the air. the level playing field is the most important. anna: wherever the u.s. goes you would hope europe would follow. >> in the end, the playing field is the main issue. anna: you are the biggest bank in denmark. can are the lessons you teach other european banks in how to survive negative interest rates that are not as severe as those you have had to tackle? >> it means that if you look at our results in the last few quarters, you can see the

positive side. is the need tont reprise other services. as a bank, you are set up to make money on liquidity which is suddenly gets thrown up into the air in a negative rate environment. we have been rebalancing the business model. value defining new propositions for our clients. in the nordic region, especially with corporate clients, we have been charging negative interest rates for our clients. manus: i was in zurich last week. can you assure your small retail clients that you're are not going to charge negative rates? nothing has changed there and we will not charge our private clients. manus: when of the other issues is of course generally -- there are big moves.

there is a move for consolidation. how do you look at the consolidation story? are you interested in insurance at businesses? if you had an option to buy a business, what would it be? >> i don't have any irish banks in my pocket. that i amthing is here in connection with our annual roadshow and everyone is asking me about m&a. are not seeinge any great opportunities. the management team is running an organic growth agenda where we are seeing great opportunities. we may do some small acquisitions which fit our footprint but the large scales -- but the large scale stuff i think we are pretty far away from that. manus: coming up, more earnings.

--re going to talk about bmp bnp. anna: at 7:20 a.m., we speak to the cfo of munich re. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ manus: the deregulation debate. the ecb says relaxing the rules is the last and we need as the trump administration says it wants to make banks lend again. anna: u.k. commons speaker blocks the president from speaking. manus: political risks. scandal, minon lingers on. bpa: we get numbers from after an unexpected loss, we speak to the ceo staff oil.

-- statoil. daybreak is "bloomberg europe circa numbers have the bp hitting the bloomberg now. $400 million adjusted profit. another miss. .hat miss coming through deafness raft of mrs. this morning from various sectors. oil sector in terms of what they delivered in the fourth quarter against profit expectations. full-year 2017 to be higher than 2016. they are talking about reported print -- third-quarter production being higher than 2016. they are giving downstream profit of 187 million. the question in these numbers

was the same as shall. can hire rices compensate for lower prices in refining. it seems perhaps they have come under the same travails. some headlines crossing the bloomberg now around upstream profit and downstream, but it looks to be a big miss. for hundred million dollars compared to the estimate of 567.7 million. manus: yesterday, german any factors throws. today, we talk about industrial output and it falls. contraction of 3%. the market had an estimate for rise of 3/10 of 1%. this is the worst reading on german industrial output since probably 2010. the market has penciled in a growth rate of 3/10 of 1%. reduction was down 7/10 of 1% last year. german confidence skipped a

little in january. when you have here is a little bit of concern creeping into the numbers. order intake in the industrial and construction sectors, as well as an increased and sentiment in these areas signaled in arrival in production growth according to the economy ministry. breaking news at the top of the show. we have a little futures action for you. anna: let's see where we are on the futures. we could be dipping lower because u.s. futures, we may be -- looking pretty flat. flat at the start of the trading day for europe. a lot of companies disappointing in terms of numbers, whether the banking sector or the oil or. plenty of numbers that have disappointed. manus: futures, i pulled it up on the radar, we also have what is unchanged at 1.5%. the new zealand dollar, as well.

the kiwi rallying to a three-month high. first quarter expectations. bond market, marches and play on the table. yields, there is that risk off sentiment around the market i think when it comes to some of these currencies and dollar-yen, s&p unchanged. anna: let's have a quick look at the bond board. we're at 2.39% on the u.s. 10 year. not quite at the 2.6 or the 3%. capital had been talking about marking the end of that bull market. we have seen it turned tail since december. let's get a first word news. meanwhile, we have the u.k. house of commons speaker saying trump must not be allowed to address parliament during his visit to britain. he voiced his opposition to the president's stance on several issues yesterday. in a strongly worded act -- address to mps. >> as strong as this place is

concerned, i feel very strongly racismr opposition to and to sexism, and our support for equality before the law and an independent judiciary are hugely important considerations in the house of commons. [applause] >> bnp has posted fourth-quarter profit that missed estimates. to 1.4 4me doubled billion euros from a year earlier, but fell short of the 1.6 3 billion analysts expected. the lender also laid out a multitier plan to lower costs and boost technology. at the same time, the cfo said the bank will take a wait and see approach to donald trump's review of the dodd-frank regulatory framework. >> we will have to see because , with go back to g-20

respect to guidance, they said any new regulation should have no material impact. we will have to see. new zealand's central bank at ther will step down end of september. the deputy governor will need for six months until a permanent predecessor -- accessor -- successor is appointed. the battle to revive inflation after new zealand's economy out developed its peers and the housing market boomed. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more , you can findries more stories on the bloomberg. thank you. statoil has reported another unexpected laws -- laws. digested -- net loss excluding financial

and other items was 40 million compared to a profit of 185 million a year ago. happy anniversary to you years thehe seat -- two years in chic. you have done a lot, but we are in the fourth quarter, $2.3 billion of a write-down. catches me is this is impart tied to the long-term assumption on prices. this concerns me the most. obviously impacted by the low commodity environment. not is predominantly an oil and gas producing company. oil and gas prices are very important for us. in this quarter, we had. in terms of impairments, we had impairment this quarter of 2.3 billion u.s. dollar net. the main reason for that is fact that we have adjusted downward for long-term prices -- price assumptions for

the oil. now we are looking at an oil taking oil20 and prices down in 2020. that has an impact on our balance sheet, both on our regional portfolio and international. anna: they sometimes want to know if this is the end of the impairment story. from what you said, it depends on where the oil price goes and your substance of it. do a lot of hard work to improve our operations and increasing efficiency and improve the value of our assets. that is supporting this. than on the short-term and long-term commodity have an important saying in terms of valuation. anna: why have you changed your views on oil prices? eldar: this is based mainly on our some chanel. we've seen over sometime the is its coming down and going to stick? is it sustainable? we think it is possible to sustain.

that means that the long-term cost assumption in the industry is coming down. the implication of that, and a long-term perspective is that lower oil price environment. manus: one of the hallmarks of a focus your tenure is on bringing him capital expenditure. you have slashed by nearly 50%. i see the number $11 billion. are we at the bottom of your question mark are we at the trough? eldar: 13 billion, we came in at 10 million. this year, we increased it slightly. we are investing in a high-quality projects. we have a portfolio which has a break in price of 27 u.s. dollar per barrel. we would like to invest in the portfolio, so we are slightly increasing our capital number 211 billion. we will invest in these projects also going forward and will continue to explore at the same

dollars.5 billion u.s. that we did last year. anna: you have been cutting back on capex and get you are still streaking money to shareholders. talk us to the thought process about how much investors care about the dividend return and how much that is almost sacred, you can't touch it. eldar: first of all, what is important is that we actually can generate cash to support it. then we need to invest in projects and we need to generate cash every quarter. this quarter -- fourth quarter of last year, we had a positive cash flow. almost one billion positive cash flow. after-tax, after dividend cut and after investment. anna: so you are not having to borrow? eldar: in the fourth quarter, we had to borrow -- in the third quarter, we had to borrow. in the fourth quarter, we used cash from our net after dividend.

manus: will that be the case this year going forward? eldar: this year, we see we will be able to be cash flow neutral. at around 50 dollars per u.s. barrel. we are committed to the dividend, we have enough today that we will pay the same dividend level for the fourth quarter as we have over the last couple of quarters. we should expect the same dividend level over the next three quarters. anna: thinking about the strategy for your business. one analyst described as what you are doing as ceo over the past few years as back to basics. norway and offshore production internationally. what does the future hold? what is your strategy, any changes that you foresee? eldar: an update on strategy today, it is a start -- sharpened strategy. it is an evolution. the backbone of the strategy is still the norwegian continent and shale. that is where we have the edge

and would like to capitalize on that. we see opportunities going forward. will continue to grow our international activities and the quality of those assets is important. manus: talk about the u.s. because trump is big on big oil and he has told us he is going to make america oil in the pendant. -- independent. the want to see more from him? rex tillerson is in the u.s., how does that play into your thinking in onshore assets in the u.s.? hard and are working have significant improvements on the quality of -- >> i want to know what you think. i want to hear about big oil. eldar: big oil, statoil is a long-term industry. our projects are really long-term. we think through the cycles and also through political cycles, whatever you might see in the future. or as to be consistent in what we do, continue whatever we have on regulations, we have had a

policy of staying ahead of regulations. we will continue to do that. in climate policy, we have a clear policy on how to address the low carbon future, in our oil and gas business and in our others. trump doesn't share that, does it? eldar: it cannot be changed. the world is moving towards a low carbon future. we need to move towards that development. manus: no conversation would be complete. if records are coming back. they talked about $62. they really opec -- do believe that opec has returned to the helm of austerity in oil prices. is opec back? it seems it that they have re-grasped the net. strongthere is a determination in opec. there have been a lot of challenges.

that says something about the determination. i think opec will definitely adhere to the quotas, at least to some extent because of that determination. there will be an impact from the opec policies. exactly how much that turns out to be is still a challenge. there is still uncertainties when it comes to the commodity environment. anna: thank you very much for spending time with us this morning. the ceo of statoil on daybreak: europe. next, a conversation with the world's biggest reinsurer. he joins anna and i. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. the australian dollar against the u.s., no change in central bank policies. a great time to tell you we have launched a new show.

bloomberg has launched a new daybreak australia show. you can get your day started and or finish your day. they break australia. every day. out of sydney. it is 3:17 in the afternoon in hong kong. let's get a business flash. sophie question mark sophie: statoil has reported an unexpected loss in the fourth quarter after deepening write-down on its u.s. shale assets. this would exclude other financial items worth $40 million. that makes the average forecast $618 million profit. whether the collapse in oil prices has led to the downturn in its generation. kkr has agreed to combine its hedge fund unit with pacific alternative asset management to create one of the world's largest investors and hedge funds. in thel have a 40% stake

amco holdings, which will manage about $34 billion. the deal, expected to be completed in the second quarter, bring them to the higher end of the hedge funds league, dominated by blackstone. bnp has posted fourth-quarter profits that missed estimates. the income doubled to 1.4 4 billion euros from a year earlier, it fell short of the 1.6 3 billion analysts expect it. the lender also laid out a multi-plan to lower costs and boost investment and technology. time, the cfo said the bank will take a wait and see approach to donald trump's review of the dodd-frank regulatory framework. to see, because if you go back to the g-20, the ones that gave guidance with respect to banking regulation, they said any new regulation should have no material impact. , if it have to see remains within that framework,

it should be manageable. sophie: arsenal data for january showed china's lending exceeded the previous monthly record, according to people familiar with the matter. they say regulars estimate 's rose to arrange that could beat the record in 2016. the surge highlights the challenge policymakers face as assettrive to fight bubbles this year. that is your bloomberg business flash. let's get a check on how asian markets fared this tuesday. we do have that four day event in asia. crude shares dragging as fell below $54 a euro. we have to meet day closing at about one fourth of a percent below are. following --ies falling below volatility as we await data. hunting seeing little change.

chipmaker also following today. the company confirming it has submitted a nonbinding bid for a stake in toshiba's chip business. a four day event here ahead of the r.b.i. decision and stocks swinging into the green. r.b.i. at 1.5%. equity movers of note in asia. and hitachi shares climbing after the announcement that they are going to be teaming up around electric vehicle technology. this is to launch in july with honda taking a 49% stake. they may use a hitachi moke -- texas.oint in tech -- this comes after toyota's announcement it is teaming up with suzuki on monday. investigators -- anna: let's talk about reassurance.

, despite a 29% fall in fourth quarter profit on higher claims from national disasters. manus: the company ceo joins us on the phone. take you for joining anna and myself. the market is going to look at dividends, raising that 8.6. in the fourthned quarter? you missed on your numbers and you promised the market a substantial excessive number back in november. talk us through the back quarter? joerg: the last quarter was dominated by large losses. matthewrom hurricane and an earthquake in new zealand. that is what our business is about. we willingly accept that. also, as a good basis for stabilization reinsurance rates. anna: you are increasing your dividend, what does this decline

in profits we have seen in this quarter mean for your dividend and your promise to keep it stable? are you sticking to that today? joerg: it means very little. frankly, i admit. because we fully met our wasinal annual target, it .3 22.8 billion euros and we were a little bit about the million. 2.3-2.8 billion euros. our general dividend policy is we strive for high distributions , slightly growing over time and that is what is currently happening with a plus of 4%. we cany confident continue on that path in the years going forward. manus: i'm interested to know. you mentioned the reminder that the market got from some of those natural disasters in the fourth quarter. thewe at the bottom of

pressure on pricing for renewals? do you think those moments, those natural disasters have reminded the markets of how necessary this insurance is? are we had a floor in pricing? joerg: interesting question. we have always been asked, what does it mean to stabilize pricing? does it take a disastrous catastrophe? i don't think so. in my view, normalization of major claims would also be of theto remind people normal profitability of business and the urgent need in this slow interest environment to have a stabilization of rates. renewal of recent our business for january 1 2017, which already have strong signs of bottoming of the trend of the last couple of years. .5% orte decline of only

so. there are clearly signs for this to happen now. aroundgh capacity all will also mean, it is a difficult path back to high profitability. anna: your restructuring the ergo part of your business. update us on that. is that going exactly to plan? joerg: yes. so, we have been suffering from the restructuring expenses, but i would call them a very good investment in the future, it is about digital lysing our business. it is about streamlining our forces. ensuring there is a good future potential for the business. was overallr this net expenses in the order of 250

million for last year. the argo and it together with a slight loss -- ended the year with a slight loss. now i am confident we would see positive figures in line with the plan. we're joined on the phone from munich. it doesn't take natural disasters to put a floor on the pricing. you can always watch what anna and i do on a day-to-day basis if you want to. the whole idea is you can pick up all of this. you can pick up all the video. you can follow the charts, a beautiful charts our producer hillary produces. you can even get in touch with the team, as well. you can send all your questions to manus. francine: anna. we will be thrilled.

and as the end of daybreak: europe, the european open is next. they will have a conversation about a french political story. on the bloomberg radio next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ guy: you're watching bloomberg/markets. the european open. i am guy johnson. that miller is in berlin. what are we watching? spreads widen in europe. the plan for france to be the euro. we speak to a key advisor to marine le pen on this program. profits double but miss estimates. investors have driven shares to the highest level in decades. how long can the outperformance can in you? b.p. misses estimates.