bloombergmore on first word news this afternoon. >> lawmakers are close to introducing legislation to repeal and replace the of portable care act. conference,y press speaker of the health paul ryan set the timeline but did not specify a date. >> after the house returns following president's day, we intend to introduce legislation to repeal and replace obamacare. it has become increasingly clear that this law is collapsing. >> house lawmakers are set to leave washington for the presidents' day break and return on every 27th. the senate judiciary panel will begin confirmation hearings for supreme court nominee neil gorsuch it march 20 according to chuck grassley. he was selected to fill the vacancy left by justice antonin scalia is death.

the senate has confirmed president donald trump's pick to run the white house budget office. south carolina congressman mick mulvaney squeaked through the senate on a 51-49 vote. he will represent trumps fiscal 28 at request to congress in the coming months and said he would recommend infrastructure spending and military spending. skiing at europe's mountain resorts this month, enjoy it while it lasts. researchers say the impact of global warming could decrease as much as 70% of the snow cover in the alps by the end of the century. researchers are trying to determine how much snow could he saved the country's deliver on the paris agreements to tackle climate change. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

joe: we are 30 minutes from the close of trading here in the u.s. scarlet:. u.s. stocks slipping with the s&p 500 on the cusp of ending a seven-day rally. >> president trump defending his ,enure in the white house pointing to the stock market performance as evidence of his accomplishments. we will look at the disconnect between markets and dysfunction. snap is pitching a stock to investors that is more expensive and comes with less shareholder control than any social media company before it. we have more details on its ipo.

joe: let's look at where the major averages stand as we head toward the close. abigail doolittle is standing by. >> for the first time in six trading sessions, were not looking at record closes for the major averages. it's worth noting that each of the major averages has today put in yet another injured a record high. six days of intraday all-time highs. were just not looking at the least right now. maybe the s&p 500 will turn up slightly to put in an eighth day of the best winning streak since 2013. the others on pace for the worst day this month at this is largely the reason why. real weakness from the airline sector, the airline index having february iny of drag down by american airlines and jetblue and southwest. it's a reversal of the big rally

yesterday, as southwest is asking a court to stop in overtime board caught that one of the big airline labor unions. it's interesting on the day that we have a new labor secretary nomination. we have a great board that shows that warren buffett's top shareholder in both delta and united. the second-biggest shareholder in southwest and american air. us reason this stands out to is the fact that it's a difficult sector to invest in, suggesting that berkshire hathaway thinks that oil is going to stay at current levels, that labor will not go higher. bit on the a consumer and bigger u.s. growth than what many are thinking about right now. thanks, abigail.

president donald trump rejecting portrayals of chaos in his administration and claiming incredible progress in his first four weeks and office, even claiming that the stock markets were an indicator of his success. trump: this administration is running like a fine-tuned machine, despite the fact that i cannot get my cabinet approved, and they are outstanding people. joe: for more on the snap news alexrence, let's bring in from washington. what is your one headline from this news conference? press a two-hour conference, all over the place. if you had to put a headline on it, what is the story? .> trump being trump he got back to the basics. it was campaigner trump out there, not president trump. i think maybe he thinks he can salvage his presidency i doing

the thing he does best, which is be donald trump. scarlet: it seems he was really speaking to his face him voters across the rust belt who felt they did not have a voice until he spoke on their behalf. he change the subject from questions about michael flynn and his connections to russia to attacking the media. >> he made clear in this news conference that the whole point of this whole show is to get and talkinstream media straight to the people who put him in office. almost incidentally make some news along the way, including one statement that i think could haunt him a little bit. ,e said that to his knowledge no when he knows of in his campaign ever had any contact with russia. joe: when i watch this press conference, he is just so in his beingt, as you say, trump trump.

he likes scolding the media. this makes him really happy. do you think we will see more like this in the future? >> i think if he has his way, yes. the interesting thing, there were so many interesting things about the news conference, but one thing that is notable, it wasn't announced by the white house press office, it was announced by donald trump this morning during a meeting with congressional leaders. he just came out and told reporters i'm going to do a news conference at noon. the press office and out new guidance, canceling the press secretaries briefing. i think this was really prompted by the president himself. his staff was probably caught a little off guard over this whole thing. it was pretty much president trump calling an audible, in many ways. regarding the comment he made about contact with russia, another piece of news he made as

well as the fact he said he will sign a new immigration -- a new executive order on immigration tailored around the objections of the ninth court. they've kind of sent conflicting signals. at one point they were going to take it to the supreme court. trump even tweeted, i will see you in court, to the appeals court. they were going to fight it out in the courts, and then they decided to change direction and just issue a new order that they think will get them in less legal trouble or no legal trouble at all. exemptk the order will green cardholders entirely from this band and that will solve some of the problems of the night circuit. lane, our white house editor for bloomberg news, thank you for that. the fed chairman echoing janet yellen's testimony, saying the central bank is nearing its goal

of 2% employment and 2% inflation. we sat down with stanley fischer an exclusive interview and asked if things are getting more complicated because of inflation. >> it was very complicated when the inflation rate was negative and very low. inflationtarget of 2% and we are heading in that direction. so it's not making life more complicated at the moment. very high inflation, which of course we will do what we have to to prevent. it could complicate the situation but we are not there by any means. >> how do you define high inflation? usnis lockhart will join later today on bloomberg. the dallas inflation, the cleveland inflation. what is the statistic that begins to suggest high inflation?

>> our target is 2%. obviously you don't hit it exactly, he hope to be there your is worried about being below as above. something which is if you're close to 2%, it's not a problem. if it is significantly above, you begin to worry and you begin to act. >> part of our relationship over the years at davos and in other important meetings has been are really don't talk to you about the parlor games, but unfortunately i have to today. i believe there is a march 15 meeting. changed their probabilities of what the fed will do. there is a new inflation dynamics, does it change the cadence of two or three rate increases as we go to the end of the year? give yout want to

numbers on two or three. this is consistent with what we have thought should be happening around now. that is as we've been moving closer to the 2% inflation rate and that the labor market would continue to strengthen. if those two things happen, we will be on the path that we more or less expected. so important is the idea of yourg through the year for fed within the politics of washington, as i'm sure you are aware, washington is in turmoil. my colleague michael mckee was talking to me yesterday about how the fed acts differently as you go year end. of 2017i would suggest is different than any other year end. yellen wille chair leave.

>> we really do not take -- make political decisions. we take into account what is happening in the economy, what people think about and what might happen to policy. but we are not going to make of whats on the basis pressures we are getting politically. we have targets, we are aiming to get the targets. >> are we still ultra accommodative? i think we are in the land of accommodative. i'm not sure about ultra. >> i love to see a first beach in november -- i love your .athematics we've cut our productivity growth in half. that is the core issue. is it about technology? is it about automation? can you give us this mysterious

thing, the efficiency of economy? worldwide, there's a slowdown in measured productivity. some people argue, they have a basis for their argument, that they have become less and less appropriate as the economy moves a being more and more services economy. productivity growth is most rapid in the manufacturing sector, always. that is where you see it happening. we have a very small manufacturing sector. in terms of employment, where producing roughly the same share of gdp in manufacturing that we did 20 years ago. but the number of workers there is down because they have become more productive. so the why is that we don't really have a very good story at

the moment, whether it is measurement, there certainly is a measurement factor. it's very hard to measure as you are looking at the comfort you have in your home and so forth. and we are looking at why it has declined, the education of the workforce, but we don't have a single factor to say that is it. we've got it, we've just got to fix that. we got to do a lot of things to try to get productivity to go up. scarlet: we have some breaking news, south korean court has theed an arrest warrant for de facto head of the samsung group. his arrest a disappointment and blow to the company overall, which is one of the most influential conglomerates in south korea. he's accused of being involved in payments made to a close

friend of the current president park. the family was looking for intended toa deal smooth the transition of power to mr. lee. the headline here is that the south korean court has issued an arrest warned for jay y. lee of samsung. this is bloomberg. ♪

will speak tomorrow at a boeing plant where is expected to make an announcement about the export import ban. critics say it's a big giveaway to big business. earlier today, kevin's are really caught up with a democrat

representing north dakota who is in favor of the agency. he asked her about efforts to get the ban up and running. >> this is been such a long journey. not only were we able to get it reauthorize but now we don't have a quorum. you could do small loans and doll credits, but you cannot anything over $10 million unless you get approval from the bank board. right now we don't have a fully functioning bank board, so there's no core my on the bank board, which means we can't do any credit over $10 million. which means there is $30 billion of exports, meaning almost 180,000 jobs in the pipeline that are not getting approved. presidentment to the is, let's get the bank up and running. you care desperately about keeping american manufacturing in this country. american manufacturing is being exported right now because we

functioning fully xm bank. he was in agreement with it in december. he said tell everyone i believe in the ex im bank and i'm ready to get the bank functioning. >> the opposition could be members of his own party, particularly those in the tea party. this he seemed to understand that, and how would he address it? >> we had a long conversation ,nd when we were in trump tower in a debate back in december, people say look, i think the speaker doesn't like the bank. if it means jobs for american workers, i am for it. and i'm seeing what's happening with jobs moving to france and canada and i'm not going to be part of that, and i'm going to get the bank up and running. >> so they could appoint folks to the board. >> we need one more appointment.

that is the way it has been. senator shelby, head of the banking committee, refused to report that republican appointee out of committee. that stopped us last fall. we have been pushing for this for a long time. you want to get this bank up and running as soon as possible this year. trust in,is going to tomorrow, to tour the plant. anticipate e andx-im announcement tomorrow? >> i know he didn't just say it to me, he then directed staff and was pretty adamant that this get done. i think it would be an excellent opportunity for him to say to the boeing employees, i care about you and i'm going to get you the tools you need to be successful in the international market. so i'm hopeful, but i would expect that he will reiterate x-im bank.t for the e

>> you and some of your colleagues have emerged as a group of democrats who have been willing to work with this new white house, despite the emmett opposition on a host of other issues as well as other democrats in your party. how do you navigate that, and what does that mean for the political landscape and for policymaking in such a partisan washington, that feels increasingly partisan? >> you know, i have a job to do. if you think i can wait four more years to do this job, then you don't know me very well. i'm going to do everything i can do to help my state be successful. and if that means getting the m eight up and running and supporting manufacturing businesses, that means talking to the administration about how agriculture is being affected.

there are places where have disagreement about what is happening. onre's a lot of uncertainty whether will be able to access basic and markets and have great relationships in canada and really across the world. cirilli'swas kevin interview with the senator from north dakota. small businesses are expecting major sales, but does the data support their optimism? we will look at the numbers. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: breaking news, president trump signing a measure repealing obama era cold rules. -- coa rules. lwe will keep you posted on further developments there. i'm focusing on how president used the stock market record high as an indication of

his achievements. we have vertical lines to indicate record intraday streaks. any yellow vertical lines ,ndicate six days, white lines eight days, and amber lines are more than 10 days. is the s&p 500ay made an intraday high for a sixth straight day. the last time this occurred within may of 2013. since the 1920's there have been teen under a republican president. based on this chart, bill clinton was the most loved president by the equity markets. so we haven't seen that since president clinton. the 90's were an incredible time for the stock market. i'm looking at a chart with some --a from earlier this weight this week. it's a great example of this

theme we are talking about, the boom in optimism and the hopes that the hard data will come in and support all this excitement. is the gap between expected sales in the survey over the next three months am a what companies think they are going to sell over the next three months versus what they have sold over the most recent three month. there has been a huge upsurge, meaning there's a lot more optimism and a big surge about sales over the coming three months than they have seen over the past three months. this chart goes back 30 years. we really only see spikes like this coming out of recessions, typically. these optimism surges usually happen after a recession. this one is happening several years after the recession, so we will see if it has the same as act. scarlet: that's interesting, what specific instance causes these surges? the tao popping into the green,

not by very much -- the tao that dow popping into the green. the nasdaq down marginally. this is bloomberg. ♪

[ alarm clock beeping ] weather. ♪ [ laughter ] cartoons. wait for it. [ cat screech ] [ laughter ] ♪ [ screaming ] [ laughter ] make everyday awesome with the power of xfinity x1... hi grandma! and the fastest internet. [ girl screaming ] [ laughter ] ♪ >> we are moments when from the

closing bell. they are stalling, with the s&p having a winning streak since 2013. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. joe: i am joe weisenthal, we went to welcome you. scarlet: we begin with a market minutes. it looks like the dow has ended the day at a record high. it is up ever so slightly. as we get the numbers settle down. joe: this is very unfamiliar. scarlet: the s&p was having a seven-day winning streak, they have ended. down just 1/10 of a percent. the dow is climbing higher. it is not climbing that much. joe: ticking. scarlet: it is ticking higher. as far as individual movers, we of theseng at some

food companies. there were a lot of expectations packagedt would have food companies would merge. they said they do not need another acquisition to drive value. with monta lea's, craft, and general mills. in terms of earning season, that continues to roll along. holes -- to open new hotels and casinos. trip advisor missed problems, because of with investors anticipating problems. looking at cisco, they beat on board -- better than corporate demand. the company says their board is reviewing strategic alternatives. joe: there is a nice surge there.

look at the government bonds. it is a fairly significant. the economic data was pretty solid. it did not really matter. when you are stuck in this range, 2.35, 2.34, everyone is wondering whether they will hit the upside or downside. scarlet: in terms of currency, from the u.s. dollar. you have the same theme and everybody is trying to figure out that. everyone is trying to figure out where the dollar is over that japanese yen. yesterday.e to 115 we cannot pass that level. today we fell below 111, that is

a pretty big dig your for the dollar and yen. let's have the yen as your base currency, it is stronger with most exceptions. you can see that everybody was losing ground against the yen. ,oe: finally in the commodities we're looking at week, oil and gold. we know that wheat is one of the figure of losers. this is a tight range in the commodities, it is not going and one way or another. there are not much happening in the commodities. scarlet: it is odd because there are so many different reasons for copper or oil. it just has not happened so far. those are today's market minutes. let's get a check of bloomberg, you can use the chart at the

bottom of the screen. i want to see the disconnect between the political uncertainty and what we see and the markets. with the dow and s&p at market highs worried we used to say that market arts and to -- market uncertainty, what is driving these equities over assets. we have robust data, whether it some hard data. most of that is coming in as well. is thee line you can see uncertainty is at a record high. the white line acknowledges market risk. the higher that is, is the systemic risk. you can see it is not quite high lately, the financial crisis is here, it has moved much sharper. since 2011 we have seen the reverse happened. maybe because the central bank has become less of an issue.

joe: it seems like the central bank is pulling ahead. this is one of the more confounding charts in the market. president trump has confidence in his administration. here he is in his press conference. >> the stock market has had record numbers as you know. there has been a tremendous surge of optimism in the business world which means something much different. it means that is good for jobs. joe: joining us now is the bloomberg stocks reporter, it is pretty striking that the media has said the world is upset with the goings on of the white house, the appearance of chaos, the uncertainty of policies. the equity markets do not seem to care, what are people saying about the disconnect?

>> they are really talking about the economic data being better. this is one of the many economic indicators that are outperforming right now. we haven't measures of super confidence, they have not been this high since 2011. in, not earnings coming only better than expected, this is exceeding expectations, we are back in positive territory after the biggest lost sense the financial crisis. this moreis favoring --.rable sense joe: it is just two different measures of sentiment. hockey just see those sticks at the end, they are shooting straight up or . scarlet: is this what people

mean when they are waiting for animal spirits to perk up? >> this would have to be something where people are so confident, not only with the political uncertainty, but the lack of follow-through and the inflationary policies that we see the big gains talked up to. we have seen infrastructure spending being talked about and whether there is a repatriation tax or border tax. this helps corporations grow they are being very well made. they have not had that happened yet. we are still waiting for that. scarlet: i guess one thing you can see is with this semblance that is not related to the promises that president trump has made investors are not banking on. gonest has not really there yes because he is working on other issues. joe: maybe the thinking is the

calendar has been pushed back, if we going to the bloomberg, earnings did not get a lot of attention this last quarter because they were overshadowed by the administration. or is a very nice comeback, and this earnings growth, which is where we were recently at the same time last year. take just the fourth quarter that is still ongoing, you can see an even bigger increase. we are expected to have profit growth on a four-year basis from 2010, a lot of this policy in inflationary buying has ties to how it is going to trickle down to earnings growth. that a lot of that goes hand in hand. who israel thele stock market was janet yellen, andmentioned a rate hike,

said they could raise rates in a year. it caused the stocks to hit the floor, in january, there was a slight hawkish tone and the market declined 1% on the day. we have not had that sense 40 or 50 days ago. here we have her saying the economic conditions are great and the rate is going to keep going. that is tied to the economic growth and people are viewing good data is good and negative data being negative. scarlet: we saw the stock market decline with her comments, she was a little hawkish and there was record highs. when you talk to investors and people in that world, are they gary as an influence? shepherdinghim as

this process along with how they can proceed? >> i think when it comes to the personnel that are at going to be making these changes, this is what people are looking at. he is like going to be doing everything himself. i think you are definitely seeing that, you will probably see trading have boots on the ground and implementing these policies that are supposed to be so positive for stock growth. scarlet: then we finally have steven mnuchin confirmed as treasury secretary. josie lee, bloomberg stocks reporter, thank you so much. coming up next, recent data isgests that the economy reacting positively to the new administration. we will hear from more than one economics. ♪

♪ >> i am mark crumpton it is time for first word news. president trump says that losing michael flynn has done little to slow down his administration. the president spoke at a news conference today. >> this administration is running like a fined tuned machine. despite the fact that i cannot get my approved and they are upstanding people. at least nine members have not been approved that is a record. the president named a new labor secretary nominee, he is dean of the florida university law school. his previous choice with through

his name from consideration wednesday. contacte highest between u.s. and russia sense trump took office. tillerson spoke about the relationship with moscow. the u.s. will stand up in the interest of values for america and her allies if we do not see eye to eye. as we find a common ground, we expect russia to honor their agreements and work two deescalate violence in the ukraine. >> secretary tillerson is in germany for a conference, russia and not discuss economic sanctions with them. in china, two more have been murder of that north korean dictator's half-brother. providedy the man

into the woman carrying a passport. many believe he was poisoned with either a needle or spray. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts, in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton and this is bloomberg. what you missed? there is positive economic upheaval. it seems like retail sales, performance, that is all good news. arecan see all of these coming in of of expectations. up,let: if you add it all this is the index. when the line goes up it does not indicate growth the data is coming in better than what economists expected.

it is incredible, we are at the highest we have seen in at least a year if not going all the way back to 2013. joining us now is a chief economic -- economist. i would not say i'm surprised with this data. some of these surprises are just repeating a story. there is going to be strong recovery in the business sector, they said this was going to be really off the chart. they said it was going to be very good. there is also going to see these a bullishhaving indicator. thata higher number means a lot of companies are optimistic not necessarily that they are very optimistic. markus: that is my question i

want to know how optimistic you are. you can see it in the goods orders, you can see it in the business side of things, that is working very well. on the consumer side where we see the problems, the retail sales number is tied to the annexation number -- the inflation number. inflatione that cpi was stronger than consumer sales. you will always end up with a zero. real consumer spending in january was not a good start to the corner. i am getting a little bit worried that what we are seeing is a rising rate of rapid inflation. that will in fact -- affect the u.s..

are not keeping pace with real spending. consumer confidence is terry hi, i expect that will turn over, when that happens i expect markets and investors will pick up that story and maybe the bullishness. this was never based on the consumer, i am basing my story on the u.s.. we are seeing is not just in the u.s.. investment spending is rebounding, there is a local supply chain being exported. ,e had a record trade surplus commodity prices are picking up for copper and iron. we are seeing this coming from the investment story in the u.s.

scarlet: earlier on we were showing this chart on joe's bloomberg. is heading toet sell after janet yellen being hawkish. now they are continuing to rally. year, we were talking about a recession. one?ay there actually was >> we did not get one that had the official definition. i argued that we had a recession , there was a real decline in the numbers of the gdp. we had five consecutive quarters of earning. conditionscessionary at least in the business sector. a collapse in oil

prices, that ended in the middle of last year. they are now rebounding, that is the cyclical power of investment spending, on top of that there is also a bit of a structure to this. i think it has been very slow in the u.s. companies have to be more productive to be more profitable. that is another reason to increase investment spending. yellen onusly janet the hill this week, her testimony perceived to be looks like inflation is picking up. there could be some concerns out there with the real assumption up to a good start, how many highs you see this year? marshals will be interesting, from a taxable percentage, if you want to raise that, you will have to raise rates in march. you will only have something at less. you will not know what happens

in the second half, you are really putting all of your eggs in one basket if you wait. we will see what happens. if they do not raise rates in march, we will see what happens. joe: chief economist, thank you so much. scarlet: if you want to hear what he had to say, you can go to the bloomberg, that will allow you to watch what happens live and what happens a few hours ago such as president trump's news conference. there is joe just a few minutes ago. of course our conversation with alix wayne. it can click on that and will pop up. there is the chart. db plus charts, i am into that. to cutpec decided

prices. it will be some interesting data. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ scarlet: it is that for the bloomberg business flash. the world biggest food company is expecting slower growth this year. this is below their long-term projects. we spoke with the ceo of nestle. think particularly in western europe, there was a deflationary sense. we hope that is beginning to turn around, there are challenges with that, it is very hard to turn around that corner. we hope for 17 and beyond. scarlet: he says he cannot fix their underperforming businesses

he will get rid of them. buynb has closed a deal to a canadian business. airbnb and failed the acquisition today that decline to disclose financial terms. worthanadian company was $300 million. that is your business flash update. time now to get a inside dive into the bloomberg. one topic that we keep bringing isis oil and how strange it that the price seems to be stuck. you have so many things that would be presumably good for the price. here is what thing that has people puzzled, they have been adding to the list best, that is the white line. what investors are doing are betting on a combined 830 million euros. -- barrels.

this position is pretty noteworthy because opec decided to reduce production. what happened in the price? joe: nothing. scarlet: they did move, but nowhere. since late december, it seems to have gone nowhere. there was a initial jump up, every day we update the price and it is basically the same. scarlet: we are always staying in the mid-$50 range. it seems that opec is complying, that is remarkable. joe: let's look at another factor. this is oil supply, there is all of this oil markets going into balance. there will be oil total supplies. do we have that chart? one moment. i am trying to get that. scarlet: this is what happens on

live tv. hold on. joe: it does not matter. the market is incredibly stable, there is an increased in supplies that we are seeing, there are all of these bats. there is remarkable stability. scarlet: i will pull it up right now. it has been shooting straight up, we still have this oversupply situation which keeps the oil market contested. lessl prices concert going , i feel it we need alix steel here to decode all of that. that could happen this year according to michael hunt. conundrum in the oil markets. the snapchate how maker plans to pitch a stock. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ it isy were corrupted at time for first word news. vladimir putin called for a dialogue with the u.s. intelligence services. moscow withng in his senior officials, president putin said it was a general interest to establish a dialogue. he said this would bring stronger results in the fight against militants. a south korean court has administered a special prosecutor for the allegations of bribery, and perjury.

this disrupted decision-making in that country's most powerful company. the court issued an arrest warrant for lee on friday. it may take as long as 18 months for a verdict. took over the company when his father was hospitalized. facebook ceo mark zuckerberg has stepped into the debate about globalization. in a 1500 word letter, he expressed alarm that is seeking global connection which is undesirable. around thements of world. he pledged to push facebook and its 1.8 billion users worldwide in a direction that will

convince governments and individuals in a process of coming together. a man has with a guilty to providing a high-powered rifles to kill 14 people are i. families of the victims will be allowed to speak. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts, in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton and this is bloomberg. scarlet? scarlet: thank you mark. up marginally just eight points, the other day and the nasdaq it has gone off a little bit. it is kind of a reversal of the previous day. you had treasuries rising yesterday, as of the yields move higher. not much change and economic data. it is still showing the economy growing nicely. joe: a quiet day for equity.

we are going to see a reversal in the inflation trade. abigail doolittle is standing by with a technical look at the future. >> thank you so much. so one of the big stories recently has been the 10 year yield, we saw that huge move higher, are we going to continue to move. or are we going to see a drop back down. we look at these charts next year. this is a four-year chart of the 10 year yield, we are looking at a downward and. what i wanted to ask about is we goinge the 10 year yield just well above the average. the last few times we have seen that, in two other cases, what do you think? >> i do not read the charts like

this, i will see this inflation continue. i think the big indicator is the orange line. that is the 200 day average. that is really indicative of the yield, you are going to see hot -- higher lows and higher highs. that is very similar to what we saw in 2013 actually. in 2013, even after that initial surge it really took about nine -- months of moving sideways. until we see that moderation, what i feel is it getting back to 3%, which was the peak. >> you think that will go higher to 3%. >> yes, given that bullish trend. could you give us what this means for the s&p 500 index? take us away. of clients lot

interested in equity, our you to them has been that rising interest rates. get worried is when rates actually moved slower. if you look back at 2000, there was the declining interest rates. once again, there was a downturn in 2014,st rates, even that downturn of rates, that is when we had that risk. it dominated trade for two years. now we are going higher and rates are going to 3%. i think the equity market of the s&p 500 is doing very well. is very interesting that in 2009 we have actually had stocks and bonds rallying at the same time. -- one pointe is i would make is that it still has the potential to go higher.

perhaps you are right. >> that is our take. >> think you for joining us. thank you. joe: thank you, abigail. there was technical analysis at oppenheimer. scarlet: potential investors are scrutinizing snap. snapchat to a filing, is offering their shares. they would have a market value at 18 and a half million dollars. is a gadfly columnist who just published a story on this topic. let me start with you, they are looking at a market value that is between $5 million less than what it was planned months ago. what is your take? >> it is, it has been an interesting step down. to $30re looking at 25

billion. tonovember, that was down $25 at how much their user growth has slowed in 2016, they have tempered that even more. at market value is looking 16 million or 18 million. this asthink about quite a potential of pricing in pauline's investors are feeling. they are looking at the financial profile they have not seen before. aty are also looking shareholders will not have any votes, this is a non-voting share. flags,e of the big red perhaps yellow, that investors would cause pause. >> i am used to tech companies

posting very prolific losses, this one was big. essentially they chose now to go public where user growth has slowed and where investors cannot really figure out where the losses are flipped and they become profitable. joe: a lot of time with tech companies, they said they could be, profitable at any minute. it is worth losing this money for the user growth, our people questioning whether that is the case for snap chat. >> this which is not going to be flipped immediately. the big issue is will it cost them a lot of money for computing infrastructure to send every snap and every story, with user activity. that is a big reason they are losing money. they have to sell more advertising than they are losing

on those other costs. scarlet: that will be interesting how they pull that off. you are looking at how they listed these nonvoting shares, does that limit the investor base? talking to folks in the world, it seems at the ipo, people are still going to buy and because they can sell. when you think about the longer-term investors, that is where the question is. if things are going to go sideways, if they are not the filling that flip of this which, investors have no other recourse for the ipo,hree it looks and there is still a lot of excitement, there is not a lot of issuance in the ipo. it may be ok. fear, andnger-term

volatility in the stock. joe: what are the interesting things about snapchat and all social media platforms is they have their own metric. you cannot compare looking at snap to facebook. this is what investors do not have their heads fully around. with how these numbers they present will turn into revenue growth. more metrics would be helpful, the interesting thing providespchat, twitter monthly users, snapchat has daily users. metrics that are used, the big one is average revenue for users. a lot of companies use that for -- in telecom. joe: great stuff. we will be watching this as it develops. thank you both for joining us.

coming up, could france become yet another european country to test the power of the populist, we will talk about how marine le pen could win. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ president trump rejecting chaos in his administration. he is claiming incredible progress, even saying the stock markets were an indicator of his success. >> this administration is running like a fine tuned machine. despite the fact that i cannot get my cabinet approved. they are upstanding people. the stock market has hit record highs as you know. there has been a tremendous surge of optimism in the

business world which to me means of a much different. now it means that is good for jobs. is fake news, put out by the media. the real news is that people probably from the amount -- obama administration. it would be so easy for me to be top on russia. i want to do the right thing for the american people. >> there is information coming from those leaks that is real, how can that be fake? >> i just see many untruthful things. the tone is such hatred. i am not a bad person by the way. i do get good ratings. >> on immigration, can you give us more information about the executive order for next week

? >> this is going to be very tailored to what i consider a bad decision, we can tailor that to that did in some ways more. we are tailoring it now to the decision, we have some of the best lawyers in the country working on it. the new executive order is being tailored to the decision that we got from the courts. least one i am the anti-somatic person you have ever seen. antiracism, i am the least racist person. againstery well running republicans. upsaid he was going to get and answer a simple question. scarlet: moving from u.s. politics the european politics i want to toss it over to joe. joe: the looming election in

france is proving to be one of the most pressing market stories . the populist wave is sweeping europe. could marine le pen actually win in france? here with us to discuss is the head of the international and external affairs at a think tank. you and your organization put out a fascinating report on populism in europe. let's talk about france specifically, what to you was the key finding in your study is ashowed why populism growing appeal? >> i think this comes out a be particular circumstances in the social world. -- comehese comfortable forward to make a populism defeat. they are really a nation under siege, on so many levels. it is under cultural crisis, there is cultural stagnation.

it is all coming forward to create the right conditions. the biggest finding is the situation it in front -- and france is crucial. there is that they are an dissonance, it is something really alarming. , you see there are multiple conditions to take place for this to happen, can you quantify or estimate how much this is security or terrorism or is it really all of these things? what resonates right now? >> it has almost all been coming together at once, it is the right conditions. has said, i think terrorism been a real game changer for france. that has really amplified the mood. you will see this flow into other aspects. terrified now feeling

of a terror threat. and are also feeling attitude that immigration from the outside. it is important from a policy perspective that's there is this .ens of a state of emergency people have been living under the for quite some time now. there is public support for that. i think we have to be careful not to underestimate the psychological impact of that. joe: one of the things that really struck me was the economy collapse. euther it is the institutions or the government. we have the chart, french parliament and european parliament has no trust in any of them. is this a fairly new thing? are they one of the worst countries for this collapse? >> i think in france, they have a long history of mistrust.

there is also a sense of a french malaise. there is always a potential mindset of decline. it is to the french character to some extent. i think what we are seeing right now is historic low levels in these institutions. what is different for france is that in other countries they tend to trust the eu more versus the national government. or the national government versus the eu. equallye they are distrustful of the national government and the eu. this is a really concerned. joe: one of the concerns on the national front, the support for populism is a lot of older voters, france seems to be known for a high degree of support in the younger voters.

how do you swing the phenomenon. >> marine le pen's constituents are really cobbled together from all arts of the country and all parts of the political spectrum. we are even seeing some of public service workers going across for him. we are seeing the hard left and the hard right, that reflects the platform. with border control and geopolitical policy very much to the hard right. that it is turned to the domestic platform, she is a nationalist, she is a protectionist. we are starting to see this constituents from the right. joe: that's a stuff, thank you so much. check out that report on populism and we will be right back. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ scarlet: the biggest dealmakers for the money behind the game. nhl, satssioner of the down with us. i began by asking him about how the players will compete in the south korean olympics. >> there is no deadline, or basis for which there was an agreement to move forward. how much will it take for the limbic committee to make sense. >> i think there is a lot of frustration with the last in the obstruction of the season. that is very much on the minds of the nhl teams. we are not going to have a , with negotiation on this

runolympic committee who the international federation. i think things are very much in the air. observedthe nhl has that they will dismay in the olympics if things are being held in america or canada. what is the league's ambition in asia? grow thewe want to game on a worldwide basis. we are bigger and stronger across america. to use the next few words to grow the game. players are from elsewhere. i think it is a great idea to bring in more people. the vicinity that would be on an international stage. >> i think from the last five

olympics we would not bear that out. we have no formal role, we are not allowed to promote the fact are an olympic sponsor without any references to show the world how connected we are in a hockey tournament. scarlet: everybody knows that a mexican is from the nationals. >> that is not the way the game is promoted. him, i do not think the attention of the olympics would not be the same if we could promote them ourselves. our primary focus is still north america. scarlet: you have said to me are --ckey fans they tend to skew younger as well. what are the opportunities

presented by technology and -- o our fans are entitled to have what they want when they want it. that is something we strive to deliver. the is doing an incredible job of carrying our game nationally. morenada, it is really about creating great content. that is about the game. fastere has never been or more skillful, even more competitive. we have probably the best competitive balance in our history and probably the best balance in all of sports. feel video games will play a bigger role. been exploring ways

to tie and video games and social media and the way people connect. that will remain a work in progress. ♪

♪ >> you are watching bloomberg technology. a check of the first word news. the president has named a new labor secretary nominee, he is the dean of florida university law school.

and he made the announcement at a news conference today, telling reporters that nobody he knew on his campaign staff contacted russian officials. and in the meantime, the original choice to run the labor department will return to his job at the hardee's chain. he had dropped his bid on wednesday and admitted to employing undocumented immigrant as a housekeeper. and running the white house budget office, democrats opposing the nomination for curbing the growth of medicare and social security. the oklahoma attorney general is one step closer to a leading the epa, pruitt one support -- won support on a procedural tally, but is opposed by governmental and environmental activists, as well as almost every democrat. alisa: the senate judiciary panel beginning hearings on neil gorsuch on march 20, selected