tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg February 20, 2017 1:00am-2:31am EST
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manus: our flagship days for -- flagship show in london, "bloomberg daybreak" you're going to have a lack of investment in the markets. yet, you will see 8000, 8000 on its way, the return of dr. copper. global shortages by 2020. the dramatic capital expenditure crunch in 2012, eviscerated the copper project pipeline. stoppages, mining stoppages that two of the world just mines.-- biggest
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deal in ouriggest time is set to be completed. who would have thought the deal would fall apart? the craft to deal with unilever. the first word news with shery ahn. shery ahn: thank you. japan posted a bigger than forecast trade as car exports declined and energy imports cost increase. 1.3% from a year earlier compared to a forecast of five points of -- 5% increase. --erscores the proper it's white house chief of staff has said it doubles trump and his advisors are not aware of any contact between his associates and the russians during the
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campaign. the new york times reported that associates had repeated contact with senior russian intelligence officials during the campaign. stumbles, france elections is wide-open with nine weeks to go. they would consider a possible joint candidacy. -- the weekend was not any kinder and francoispen fillon, brought down by the allegations that they misused public funds. the president of the federal reserve bank of cleveland has is thatke -- bloomberg she is comfortable with rates going up over time. head of the release on wednesday of minutes from last months meeting.
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london house prices posted the largest drop in six years. the average asking price in the capital fell .4% this month from a year earlier you the first annual decline since april 2011. the u.k. capital housing market underperformed the rest of the country last year after high prices, brexit, and increases on investors. logex launched its second -- rocket. 2.5 tons of supplies to the space station. yesterday's list off was a success. the rocket landed without problems after taking the dragon spacecraft out of the atmosphere. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . this is bloomberg.
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thank you very much. let's get into markets. fed, the deal falling apart between craft and unilever. good morning. we are seeing things looking a lot better than they were earlier in the session yo. look at this very strong rally you are seeing in shanghai. this is mainly led by consumer stocks, carmakers, and the banks. dividend yield is marginally higher than the other banks around the region. 5.4%. coming through in the consumer related stocks as well. teaming up with that supermarket chain.
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in hong kong, the rally coming through in the shares, the index is holding at a high we have not seen since september. gains once again coming through from the banks. in japan, the trade data coming through. pretty flat on the nikkei but few have seen the yen fall back against the dollar. that is giving some support. disappointing earnings today, kfxhing on the fx 200 -- 200, higher against the dollar right now. 1146, the most volatile currency we have seen against the dollar since president trump came into power. thank you for the latest on the market. stories, craft, $143
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billion bid for unilever. they cited the reluctance, craft decided that the negative mergeres made a friendly . -- everything is always friendly with the canadian bank. which part of this did you think the british government and theresa may was not going to have a problem with? it all smacks a little bit of a bizarre u-turn. guest: not just the british government. an election coming up in the at netherlands as well. very keenly contested as all
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european elections will be. a dramatic variance on the performance of the euro. politically it was going to be very challenging in the obvious way. i suspect it may have well been the case that there was leakage that got into the public domain rather earlier than the respective parties would have wished. manus: strange that you talk about leakage. two days before the deal was the $45 optionn in play. there's no doubt about it. a much bigger conversation. he proclivity for institutions to look at the u.k. as a destination of equity value because of sterling's lack of value. this is going to be a story that will carry through. you're absolutely right.
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because of the depreciation value of the currency the last 6-9 months, if you're an external investor oma clearly they are demonstrably cheaper. there's another way of looking at it and saying if you wanted of theinvolved outside european union, that also provides some degree of attraction if you can have around. that actually could be a valuable element to have a foot in both camps in europe and outside. two ways to look at this. we will continue to see corporate activity looking at the u.k. plc. there's a london 1 -- lovely line in the equity this morning, the triggering of article 50. there will only be progress when the bill is sorted out and the rights for european workers are addressed. no trade talks. nothing about the future until
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the past is put to rest. this brings me to the volatility in the pound. shoulderssay head and formation, these are the issues. article 50. we are not going to make any forward moves until the past is put to rest. it could be a discussion about the discussion about the discussion. here: we have two elements in the u k. past,scussion about the the issues and relations of the liabilities. in everyday parlance, we are talking about divorce. with the talk about the money before we can talk about who has the children. that is the context we are looking at. on the alternative side of the scenario, eight europe which is risk over the next 6-9
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months as well. that will occupy the negotiations from the opposite perspective. it suddenly becomes compressed very quickly. particularly when you think about the ramifications of ratification of any deals at the far end. the discussion provoked will be are markedly short. manus: very quickly let's talk about the propensity for a rate hike in the u.k.. a chart shows at the end of january, we are trading around 45%. that has now fallen to 17%. if you take brexit and the retail sales, the numbers were not just as bad as the market. those regional sales were down for a third month in a row. would you concur with that in terms of probability? guest: one of the fears that we
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have had is the fact that there is going to be a concern about how the consumers will be able to maintain that pace of spending. that was the momentum we saw. we are starting to see the consumer realizing that there is going to be a higher price pressure coming through. i think that is going to be headwinds. the bank of england to downgraded their growth numbers thengressively have no going up. they have gone a too far the other way and now they are starting to to come too high for calendar year 2017. the joys of forecasting. highlights for your week ahead. this is what he wants to focus on. u.s. stocks and bonds are closed today. president's day. ministers gather in
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brussels to discuss british old bailey. the u.k. parliament treasury committee. wednesday. this is where the real focus of the trading week will be. last policy meeting. we ended the week with earnings from basf casting a shadow, china's off route of products. a paste normal lending threefold in december. what it means for the wider economy. want to seesters more from greece. before releasing extra eight. china buys into abu dhabi's oil. the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: it feels like a monday morning. juliette standing by. a business flash. kfra -- kraft's collapsed.nivision hathawayffett and cited the negative response made a friendly transaction impossible. according to people with knowledge of the situation. had is gone ahead the deal would have been the food and beverage industries biggest ever take over. jpmorgan has said foreign nompanies will sell more yua bonds in china. after they started allowing the banks to write them last month.
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an active dialogue with global clients about issuance of bonds. the markets team, consisting of three people after it gained wider access to the markets. spacex has launched its second rocket, carrying 2.5 tons of supplies to the international space station. yesterday's lift off from the apollo launchpad was a success. the rocket landed without problems, taking the spacecraft out of the atmosphere. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: thank you. let's focus our attention into china banks had more than $3.8 trillion in wealth.
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the expansion is in the form of shadow banking. a 30% increase on a year earlier. we some normal lending over the same. of time. -- over the same poco of time. everybody has always warned about the shadow banking. these numbers do testify to that. definitely. it backs of the fears underneath the stability in the economy. underlying systemic risk growing. we have seen the quarterly report on friday. what is happening is this is a potential link -- channel they theiring to get money to borrowers. the authorities are trying to get a better handle on this. they are of course trying to keep the credits onto the
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balance sheet. if they succeed, we could see a couple of things. a much bigger figure for china's credit in total. also promptt might policymakers to respond and tighten the reserve rates on the banks. beginning, the very it reminds us of the systemic fragility underlying the economy. things are coming along quite nicely, not those concerns that people have. leverage has gone away, that is what they report and graphic terms. manus: switch were attention to japan. the exports certainly want anything to write home about. what did we learn? reporter: we saw a pickup in imports along japan. normally you would say that is a good sign, but really it reflected more of a pickup in oil prices.
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it's more about the commodity side of things. under 2% inflation target. i think the bigger picture remains, we would not get too excited in one month. the bigger story for the trade being more positive. the yen is weak. asia exports is picking up. just how their trade relations will play out, a new economic framework is being put up between the two countries. the u.s. vice president mike pence, those talks begin in april. that is when they talk the differences between u.s. and japan over trade deficits and what exactly the u.s. wants to get out in return. they are to the end of the world so to speak. better footing than there has been in recent years.
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manus: thank you very much. jeremy joins us on daybreak. the systemic fragility of china is never far from china data. this shadow banking, 3.8 trillion dollars, what products exceed eight point -- 30% more than the normal lending going on. that is a big old bubble bubbling away. guest: issues regarding liquidity and all of those associated factors are an ongoing concern and continue to be a worry for investors. the are fearful of implosion of the china bowl. we have to be mindful there are inherent risk. not a particularly positive development with uncertainties
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but we are not overly concerned about the china story in the neighbor term. over the medium-to-longer run of course, but in the medium term less than the numbers suggest. .6us: there's a lovely 9, 6 percent drop in u.s. -- exports to the united states. dollar-yen's find it very hard to break significantly above the 1.15 level. what shifts the dollar-yanis story -- dollar-yen story? when you go to mid december... guest: there's certainly a limit. see that we are likely 1.20 fourove beyond
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the for seeable future because the u.s. authorities will be back -- pushing the back aggressively. a level which is equitable for japan in terms of export competitiveness, i think it is. yes, of course, they would like to help achieve their inflation target but the -- the japanese should be sanguine of the risk of being trapped. manus: we also heard from the federal reserve. the cleveland governor added to the narrative. increasingly hawkish. reporter: -- >> i would be comfortable with an increase in the fund rates. if the congress keeps going to weigh it is going. a gradual increase over time. i'm comfortable with that. -- i don'tncerned
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think we are behind the curve yet. delay,continue to eventually you do become behind. nobody likes to be behind the curve. she joins the chorus of voices. it seems to be they want us to believe three hikes. they are trying to get the market up to three hikes this year. is the market underplaying the risk of the mark -- hike? it is possible. when you think about the twin mandates in terms of employment and inflation. the big caveat, the big issue which relates is what is happening on the fiscal side. daylight onget some that issue when you get trump speaking to congress next week. thatple of issues in play
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could validate the fed moving the needle. whether they can actually achieve those is debatable. that is what they want to try and drive the market forward. we've become so wedded to ultralow interest rates. in one year seems almost alien to most people who have worked in the markets because we have sat -- have had to hikes in last two years. you just need to talk to some older people. take you very much, he speaks -- stays with "bloomberg daybreak" we will talk about europe and the finance ministers. to discuss greases rescue program. then -- can they reach the gap between the germans? leader inans for the
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>> today, on behalf of president assurancering you the that the united states of america supports nato and will not waiver in our commitment to the transatlantic alliance. for him to commit to our shared values. this was very reassuring. is no doubt to the commitment to the military alliance and i am not in doubt to their commitment to the war on terror. got to see the vice president at that time and i heard a lot of the comments when
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i was in washington. it is great to hear him repeat that and for everyone to hear is u.s. commitment to nato going to continue. good speech, in terms of reaffirming commitment to nato. people come to me to talk about it and they want to see what they actions are. generalthis will be the measure, in terms of statements made and how they are reinforced. from keyare words players at the security conference, as the world reassesses the u.s. role under a trump administration. there is a new addition of daybreak. let's see what is hitting the headlines. deal thatstory is the
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almost started and never quite was. d twopulled out of the bi days before the dob -- after the deal became public. the deal came from -- negativeded that the response made a merger responsible. there was a dutch election and they did not hear theresa may's speech as prime minister. the next story focuses in on greece and the next aid installment. it probably will not come today. they will review the data and the disputes over the role and a call for debt relief. has quit as the
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party,of the democratic triggering a battle with dissidents. the stability of the centerleft government is under threat. yet encourage everybody to throw their weight behind the government administration. a little bit of global markets for us and you have copper on the radar. >> we have the u.s. stock and bond markets closed and we are seeing futures rising, after hitting this. you see the pacific index is unchanged and you have a mixed picture with hong kong gaining and taiwan lower. look at the bloomberg dollar index and it is pretty much
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unchanged, at the moment. you can see the mixed picture and i will talk more about copper. futures areel higher and oil is viewed -- oil is higher. i want to look at the dividend yields. rising, following and making japanese shares the smallest since november and stocks hit another record last week. and this feeds into what we are seeing. you are seeing the dollar gaining after the yen. fede is a chorus of hawkish policymakers. we have not seen a buy-in to the hawkish tones on policymakers. the dollar-yen is in a tight
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trading range. then, i want to look at copper. it is higher. we are at -- they say that copper will rally to 7000 for a metric ton. of new minesortage and a cap crunch. goldman being positive on copper and copper had a rally last year and is up 18%. you may think that i have not mentioned unilever. at the market open, i have a great chart. : thank you.
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futures are still high, despite a deal falling apart. the euro area confidence could take a bit of a hit. we have finance ministers meeting in brussels and the imf ks disputing the gree financial stability until there is more substantial debt relief. daybreakoke with the team. greece is never far from being an issue for europe, is it? there seems to be a division and there is a debt holder. you have the ecb not buying the bonds. it seems like a boil that needs lancing, once and for all.
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>> it has grown bigger. time. we fix on it for a >> then, there is a degree of resolution, however inconsistent they are and short-term they are. seen a number of those and we suspect that this will be the scenario played out this time. the germans have a political agenda and there is an election. the imf will be an interesting one. there are suspicions from my theycts in washington that will firm up a little bit and reflect a change. it may be an interesting additional variants. get a littleay more truculent about debt
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relief. >> there has been a u.s. interpretation about the imf under christine lagarde and the position, regarding europe. it has been relatively compliant. ultimately, they will see negotiations and a lot of headline risk. ultimately, they will kick the can down the road again. : july is the most cruel of months. by thes to be re-held greeks. you have their election and the french election. can the greeks hold out? thed cyprus risk going to -- tsipris risk it? >> he has really pushed the
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envelope, if you will, in terms of negotiation. the political environment is really fraught. italian elections. the stakes are relatively high and this is a reason why investors are nervous in holding euros. , outside oftals greece, look reasonably constructive and there is a political uncertainty that causes in ongoing reticence? manus: have you noticed anything yen?st the dollar or the have you noticed any movement or a lack of enthusiasm? i was in the united states
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and there was a discussion about being a hedge against risk and we may see positions underlying that inherent nervousness. ofre will be a position building this into the first round of the presidential on howns and, depending that plays out, if we do not see a leftist candidate coming together to make a minority and la pen,n election with you will see the risk diminished slightly. demolition derby will open up in france. we will get into that. stay tuned. we will have george joining us right here on our said at 8:30
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18.5%.e both tied at it seems like the race has completely blown open and this is becoming volatile. >> indeed. have a handle on the way the race is unfolding and it looks like it will be fillon versus la pen. there wasooked like a groundswell of support that would lead to him sweeping up the left and right support. now, it even seems like that looks questionable. uncertainty as to who will be the candidates to come out of the first round and that is really going to be the crocs of this. the general assumption is that
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-- crux of this. the general assumption is that pen has support, but not enough to get her across the line. however, there could be an change and we are seeing's rights pushing wider and they probably will, until we get results. manus: the spread blowout, would you prefer to have the swiss as a hedge or the yen? it seems like the market wants yen more than swiss. >> absolutely. the scenario is much more the swiss have marketry active in the
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and will continue to look at the reserves and the deposits on an ongoing basis. the japanese are in a bigger prism market and will continue to look at the thereailability and is a greater degree of uncertainty. you look at using the swiss franc and that is more troublesome. us: i look at who has the bigger war chest and i am drawn to the japanese. >> theoretically, they could upgraded.ade. -- >> they don't want to be labeled as a currency manipulator. >> you don't want to be at the end of a twitter rant. got involved,
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proactively, they could find themselves ending up in that scenario. one might suggest that donald trump would have a hard time finding switzerland on a map. us: a stunning blow. you can watch the show. there you go. there is the live stream for you. you can follow all of the charts that we used throughout the show on the right-hand side. everything we show, you can click on that. producersso see our sitting poised as we speak. show, theon the biggest oil concession. we will bring you the latest
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let's get a look. >> it is always 5:00 somewhere. a bid for unilever collapsed, two days after it became public knowledge. included stakeholders berkshire hathaway. there was a negative response that made the transaction impossible, according to sources familiar with the situation. more than $3.8 trillion of wealth management products held up their balance sheets, and increase. of shadow banking outpaced normal lending and undermines the deleveraging efforts. spacex launched a
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rocket to the international space station. the lift off from the apollo launchpad was a success. problems.without that is your bloomberg business flash. us: you are right that it is 5:00 somewhere in the world. we have our anchor from the middle east show who has been trying to force the news flow to push the bandwidth higher. >> i never force anything. the market does a good job. is up show you crude again by six. we got up to 597.
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not a big deal, if you look at it on its own, but this tells a story of targeting crude. this goes all the way back to summer of 2015. take a look at the journey, reaching a trough in may of 2016. and thisural gas is up chart right here is the best start in five years. goldman sachs says that u.s. oil output will gain in 2017. and therere notes will be a boost in oil per in the second half. finally, we have a column i recommend and this is an
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additional perspective. boughtbers are being into. there is. a reaction in prices to react to what is going on here fundamentally. : great color coding. he put it very much into context , that we are stuck in a narrow trading range. sinces the lowest point 2009. you are a canadian bank and i am correlations between oil and commodity currencies. revisit the relationship, with regards to oil and the commodity-based currency. between thisation and the canadian dollar was almost infinite.
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them drop backn to more normal levels now. and are still significant nowhere near as causal as to where they were a year ago. it is notable, looking at the numbers. i was in calgary two weeks ago and talked to local guys. they are better than where they months ago, but no expectation that we would see on an ongoingup basis. there is a realization that we have seen a new normal for the oil price, which is $55. we could see it move five dollars on either side of that. it implies that there will not significant move of any
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significant magnitude. if we see the oil investment ore back over the next year two, that would be beneficial, but we are talking about the next couple of years and not the next couple of months. we are talking about a global growth scenario and that is going to be a key. you start to look at those currencies that correlate to global growth. if you are optimistic, that provides further gains. : you are committed to the aussie and the kiwi. you talk about the south korean uan as being volatile. amongst themost asian currency and there is a view from this piece that this is one of the trade currencies
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you want to, perhaps, be on board with. does this complement your idea? >> if you think global growth is on an upward trajectory, for the sake of argument, that trumps mp'sents will be -- tru comments will help global growth , there will be strong export. the market has an elevated and developed financial sector and you would argue that this is a currency that would be a net beneficiary. koreak you will find that is one that benefits from the relatively benign or better growth scenario and growth trajectory. : thank you for sharing your thoughts on monday morning.
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flagship show here in london. in germany, the month on month is plus .7%, more than double the estimates penciled in. breaking news on that. basisis a year on year and the markets have penciled in producer double on the tries index and this will raise a potential for inflation in germany and it is higher than anticipated with capital goods breaking down these numbers for where the big was banner headline comes in with
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down andon year being this was barely going higher less than whatit side, whiche energy is driving the german data. and its a huge story will have an impact, in terms of the british market and the dutch market. and londonn friday is trading up with more of a global perspective in the market. total on the market in the united states of
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america. of this coming session and the dollar is generally doing better against the yen and they markets seem more interested in gold is not doing what you would expect it to do and they face of the united states of america. to the first wave news. >> thank you. deficitsted a forecast therenergy forecasts and
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is the increase. it underscores a preference of many consumers against the japanese sedans. donald trump and his advisers anynot aware of coordination -- this came after the new york campaignorted that the aides and associates had russians.ontacts with they would consider a possible joint candidacy. -- kend included fran swa
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the federal reserve bank of cleveland president has told bloomberg that she is quite satisfied with rates going up. this is from minutes from the fmoc meeting. website -- the declinethe first annual from april of 2011. they underperformed the rest of the country. global news is powered by 2600 journalists and analysts. on can find more stories
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bloomberg. what a day this has then. interestingly, there have been yields in chinese banks that have been very high and they are firing up a memo. you are seeing some great banks seeing gains. you look at the chinese stocks at the highest levels since november of 2015. run.continue this rate there are disappointing earning results and manus mentioned a alsoor yen as investors digested the trade. >> thank you for explaining the markets there. now, it was they did and a great
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she cited -- >> they came to the table and an amicable way and we know that broke this down. it came out into the public to soon before they talked detail. you see this first bid for unilever and you read the news on friday. were you surprised in did you think this would work? >> it was a big surprise. to answer the second question, we did not think it would work or be near what they came to the table with. it was not a financially itractive enough offer and
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was a question of how this would fit together. and the question was if you >> there wasthis no long-term shareholders and we biggerng to need of number to compensate us for what has been taken away from us in the next month and the number two issue would be a strategic fit. there are serious questions about unilever getting a theyity of profit and how would actually fit together. >> would they fit together or what they split the company up?
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the margins are not the best and there could be areas where they split and we are seeing offer and ithey think there would be areas where there is personal care with profits in the company and that would be something to keep. >> you sit down and you don't the a war this will chest to play with now? interest and be shareholders seem to be disappointed and i think there
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can be more to do. the other thing to look at is int there is a developments markets and we said that 79% of and it is the u.s. finding a real commitment for the company. you am going to interrupt with some breaking news coming commissionthe eu and hent stepping down may step down in march. interesting and we're going to bring this to your attention.
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this and iction of think they will not change anything. doy are just going to try to what they are doing better. >> we aren't looking at dividend yield and you say that you need to add this whole thing together this is a dividend play for you. >> i would not say it is the only reason. >> just take me through your thinking. stockore the deal, the had a dividend yield and we see this happening in the long-term this is the average
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and very strong. sale acrossa faster and i do nottor think they can hold on to this is ae highlights and there aheadeven though they are of the curve and this is only half of the margin with a huge amount to do. willthere, i think they look at the acquisitions. did, i look at what they they are requiring this and they
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acquired the dollar shave club. go, do you think this opens up a specter of more aggressive plays? this is going to mount under the pressure, isn't it? this withll look at thisow interest rates and is a way to help that. scale is notthis something we should expect to see. >> it was not very successful. thank you so much.
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became public knowledge. aftercision came berkshire hathaway. there was a negative response impossible,is according to people familiar with the situation. biggest have been the ever take over. products wereent held off of balance sheets. that is an increase from the years earlier. they are at pace for normal anding and undermine efforts. the there will be more bonds sold in china this jpmorgan says that have
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dialogue -- tive say that capital markets now consists of -- rockethas launched a the spacerrying to station. the rocket landed without problems and that is your bloomberg business flash. >> thank you. speaking,other member adding to the narrative of the increasingly hawkish fed. >> i would be happy with this,
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if the economy kept going the way it is going and i am comfortable with that. i do not think we are behind the curve. delay, youinue to eventually come from behind. luis joins us. the train has left. you look at markets. time and theyh get more bullish. paying committed to of the exposure? had clear political risk.
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>> there is an environment where the oil price is stable. if we can get somewhere closer $60 and you think about how they companies have been cutting that and they have over invested in the past. really reap the benefits. higher could run that for you? >> you look at this and it is easy to say that the prices have gone up. this is the start of the recovery and they operational
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leverage. story tos a similar copper and this is a call to get ready. this capital expenditure drop we had and the even is to raise that -- >> the fundamental business model of these companies is the same. the difference is the commodity and how quickly this want through. the cycle tends to turn a bit quicker. ultimately, we are talking about these dynamics. has rocked since
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brexit and we have managed to prices.from the stock the market is asking for buyback blood. people thought banks could recover. this is a slender performance. does this play out for you? banks doingat the ,ell recently and it is grades but not sustainable. impact onking at the moreand we are seeing a sustainable lending growth. >> thank you for sharing news
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manus: welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." we are going to bring you the first trades of the day. i'm manus cranny. 133 of the berlin dollar off of unilever. we speak to a long-term shareholder of the anglo dutch consumer goods giant. the french election widens after the top candidate stumbles with just nine weeks to go. yields and 10
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