trumped by the fed. the odds of a u.s. rate hike sort after comments from two fomc officials. we get the beige book tonight and yellen speaks friday. making america weight again. president trump talks big in his speech to congress but gives little in the way of detail. >> to approve legislation that produces a $1 trillion investment in infrastructure of the united states, financed through public and private capital, creating millions of new jobs. francine: and brexit battle. it is set toays

lose a key vote in the house of lords. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we have a packed show. there's quite a lot of movement on the markets. this is a picture for your data. we are getting eurozone manufacturing pmi. this is for the month of february. they are rising to 55.4. anything above 50 means they are expanding, but it is a slight miss compared to what economists had been expecting. i'm looking at euro. we are seeing a little pressure on euro. we have a market expert to give us all his thoughts on whether it is linked to some of the political turmoil we may see in france. eurozone manufacturing pmi, 55.4 for february. onto your markets and without a doubt, everyone is looking at , hisdonald trump has said softer tone masking a little bit of difficulty for his agenda in

congress. this is what investors are trying to look at. they are looking at donald trump, but they are really looking at the wirp function on the bloomberg terminal. we're looking at fed moves. the german two-year down, -0.87%. the u.s. two-year, i have a great chart comparing the two. the yen also dropping for a third day, spurring a rally in japanese equities. european stocks rallying a touch, 0.8%. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. nejra: the chances of a u.s. rate hike this month have skyrocketed after two federal reserve officials signaled a greater willingness to tighten monetary policy. the caseudley told cnn for action had become a lot more compelling in recent months. san francisco fed chief john williams said he expects an interest rate increase will receive serious consideration at

the march meeting. we had a raft of economic data overnight. china showed more signs of stability with factory output beating out -- beating forecasts in february. australia grew faster than expected. in japan, a fourth quarter capital spending excluding software rose 3.3%. the u.k. government is braced for defeat on a vote in the house of lords over the right of the e.u. nationals to stay in britain after brexit. label or -- labour and others are uniting to support an amendment. such a defeat would complicate the brexit timetable. scotland's first minister says a new independence referendum may be inevitable. nicola sturgeon said it could be the only way to protect her countries interest unless the u.k. softens its plan to leave the european union and its single market. the ceo of uber has apologized

and said he will seek leadership help after video obtained by bloomberg show him arguing with a driver. in an email to employees, travis kalanick said he treated the driver disrespectfully and said, i'm ashamed is an extreme understatement. >> you know what? some people don't like to take responsibility. they blame everything in their life on somebody else. good luck. nejra: global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. president trump has urged americans to set aside conflict and help him remake the fabric of a country in his first address to congress. trump revisited numerous themes of his campaign using broad strokes to lay out his policy agenda in areas including immigration, infrastructure, spending, health care, and defense. >> i'm going to bring back millions of jobs, protecting our

workers, reforming our system of legal immigration. the current outdated system depresses wages for our poorest workers and puts great pressure on taxpayers. to launch our national rebuilding, i will be asking congress to approve legislation that produces a $1 trillion investment in infrastructure of the united states financed through public and private capital, creating millions of new jobs. this effort will be guided by two core principles, buy american and higher american. i'm also calling on this congress to repeal and replace reforms thath expand choice, increase access, lower cost, and provide better health care. budgetding congress a that rebuilds the military, eliminates the defense sequester, and calls for one of

the largest increases in national defense spending in american history. by enforcing our immigration laws, we will raise wages, help the unemployed, save billions of dollars, and make our communities safer for everyone. francine: let's get more with morris reid, a partner at mercury and former bill clinton advisor, and kit juckes, little strategist at societe generale. thank you so much for joining us. morris, and you look at what we heard from donald trump, lack of details, the markets don't seem that bothered. were they happy about the tone of the president, which has shifted somewhat? morris: it was actually very presidential. he was moderating his tone. he stuck to his script. one --large it may have have been one of his better speeches. the magnitude of the president was there in all his grandeur. if you saw his ronald reagan

moment where he pointed to the young lady in the crowd whose husband had died, he walked in there as a divisive candidate, but he walked out of there as president of the united states. i think that he lived up to the moment. the devil are in the details. we will see what gets done. i think he did do a good job delivering a speech that was well received. francine: is just the new donald trump? this doesn't address the deadlock that republicans in congress are facing on health care. morris: i think it was a good speech at the moment. he gave the right speech at the right time, perhaps unlike at the inauguration, which i thought the speech was probably out of context for the moment. this is a divisive candidate. he does one thing today, does something different tomorrow. i think ultimately people will measure him on what he gets accomplished. it was a lot of rhetoric in the speech, not a lot of detail.

how do you pay for all the things he's talking about, is really yet to be determined. francine: the markets seem to like it. there was a little pullback in indices, but given the lack of detail, the markets must have seen a softer tone, which may be softened the tones of america first. kit: i think the markets liked it better than the initial media response focused on the lack of details. the global economy is doing well at the moment. this buys you a fair amount of time for these broad brush strokes. we will get to the detail and see where we go, but i think if equity markets are holding onto, are we going to get cuts in corporation tax, are we going to see money come home, nothing to scare them away from that. meantime, foreign exchange and the interest rate markets got upstaged by bill beverly, frankly. francine: good point.

morris, do we expect to much? he's been in the john a month and a half. morris: i don't think we expect too much. timedoing more at this than any president has done probably in his first month. perhaps what they need to do is slow down and try to get things through the legislative calendar. you see some of the challenges that are facing him with the tax cuts, infrastructure, all the things he wants to push through. there's a process. i'm not sure he appreciated that has much before he got there, but you are hearing they are going to push infrastructure legislation the next year. the legislative calendar is starting to catch up with him. i thought it was interesting when he said, who knew it was so difficult to get health care done? we all knew that. he started to face the reality of some things he wants to get done. francine: was he bringing the country a little more together? he needs to unify the country if

he's going to get away with what he's trying to do. kit: he may be bringing congress together. francine: which is good, right? kit: it means he can get some things done. it might be a comfort for some people that the calendar limits him to three or four big things that he can probably get done on a sensible timescale. the rest of the stuff, buy american, higher american, immigration plans, what it means for wages, the political divide, the social divide, i'm not sure is going to go away at all. that is not going to drive markets. its not going to stop me questioning, if you are trying to get wages up, aren't you going to tighten the labor market faster? francine: how much do we believe that being policy and how much do we believe that being, he wants a quick win with a couple thousand jobs every month? morris: he's already doing that the way he's bracing -- embracing corporate america. if you have something nice to announce, give it to the

president, you will get a little press, and your stock will bump. the thing that is challenging to me is, donald trump has a unique moment to cut corporate taxes and do things that congress would like to get done, but he for steps on his message the travel bans and the executive orders. focus,ould slow down and he ultimately could push through a very interesting and attractive package. his congress will be up next year. francine: he's pretty focused. morris: well he's focused on the executive orders. he has not been focused on his legislative agenda. we will see when he starts to push things to congress. ultimately, presidents are judged on their midterm. how he does in the midterm election will dictate the second half of his presidency. francine: then we need to talk about this 15% corporate tax rate. we will ask morris reid and kit juckes. if you are a bloomberg customer,

you can watch the show using tv . type tv into your bloomberg terminal. you can follow our charts, analysis, and message the producers and me directly. you can ask us to ask questions to kit and morris. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. nejra: nissan says it profits could take a 500 million pound hit following brexit. it is the first time the carmaker has put a figure on estimated costs of the u.k. leaving the european union. the senior vice president told lawmakers in london that 10% tariffs on cars and in england and levies on parts would be disastrous. toshiba is said to be seeking offers for its memory chip business that value it at $13 billion. according to people i know you're with the matter, -- people familiar with the matter, it is being offered a majority stake. toshiba is grappling with a write-down at its u.s. nuclear arm. a spokesman declined to comment.

jpmorgan's ceo has expressed optimism for u.s. growth and his own industry if donald trump's administration succeeds in reshaping taxes and regulation. jamie dimon was addressing investors in new york. regulation, it is high time. no one in their rational mind can say what we do is completely perfect. we're not fanatics about it. we know there was a crisis. nejra: and that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: donald trump's speech may have taken the headlines, but comments from influential fed reserve officials appear to have moved the markets. the chances of a u.s. rate hike have skyrocketed after william dudley told cnn the case for action have become more compelling. the san francisco chief said he expects an interest rate increase will receive serious consideration at the fomc's

march meeting. still with us, bloomberg's editor will join us later on. in the studio, we have morris reid, partner at mercury, and kit juckes, little strategist at societe generale. kit, wirp function. yesterday it was at 60% probability of a hike in march. last week it was at 36%. the bonds tell a different story. who do we believe? kit: i think the further out on the curve, you've got a market that isn't convinced on a few es would make a difference. the whole thing is dampened down further along the yield curve. the way the market is moving, i think is -- the way i would describe it is, whatever the actual probability of a hike in marches, they've now got more than a 50% chance of a hike in march. the market is split the doing

two or three this year now. francine: everyone from janet yellen to the newcomer, patrick harker, has said march is a live meeting. the psychology of them doing it is because they want to keep it alive or because they want to preempt the markets? kit: i don't think they think they can go easily if the markets aren't prepped for it. you have to prepare the market, clear a path. i think this fomc is still very easy to dissuade from action on a given meeting because there's not that much inflation. but they need the market to be ready. francine: if they don't do it in march, does it make a difference? are we splitting hairs? kit: in the big scheme of things, no. or may or is march june, do i really care? i think it only makes a difference in, if you go in march, the chances of three hikes this year are quite a lot better.

you've got more time. because we've only had one in each of the last two years, you asked me last week, what did i think this time last year -- my forecast starts to feel conservative the minute they go. francine: morris, talk to me about this 15% corporate tax rate. this is priced into the markets. where is it going? is it reality with the huge deficit that means donald trump really hasn't pushed at home? morris: if there's one thing he should get done, it is the corporate tax rate. that would be delivering on a promise to corporate america. something republicans and democrats can rally around together. it will spur the economy. if you look at the stock market, deregulation has been priced in. certain industries are excited. when you talk about corporate tax rate, it impacts everyone. it is really a way he can touch every american. francine: i'm looking at the

figures. $20 trillion in u.s. national debt, $200 trillion in unfunded entitlement obligations. his 15% to much? morris: maybe it is too much, but any movement lower is in the right direction given that america is so high. this is something he campaigned on. this is something barack obama could have done as well. this is why the president needs to look at the legislative calendar and focus on things he can get done. if i was advising him, this would be the singular thing. francine: kit, does the market reprice? if he backs down -- kit: i think the global equity market rally is based on good economic data and the expectation in the u.s. of corporate tax cuts. francine: stay with us. morris reid and kit juckes. his theresa may facing a blow to her brexit timetable? we look at a potential looming loss in the house of lords next. this is bloomberg.

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francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." the u.k. prime minister is braced for defeat on a key brexit vote in the house of lords today. opposition peers are uniting with rebels from may's conservative party to support an amendment that would protect the rights of european citizens to remain in the u.k. after brexit. still with us, morris reid, partner at mercury, and kit

juckes, global strategist at societe generale. derail when she triggers article 50? it seems like a spanner in the works but nothing existential. kit: she can compromise on this in any case. or she can force it through. i don't think it is anything like as big a deal as the fight about the exit bill, as in how much it is going to cost to leave, which is going to drive the agenda. francine: how do you see it banning out? she says yes, you nationals can stay here? kit: some kind of compromise. people who are here don't automatically get the push off. more long drawn process for taking control. francine: should we worry about scotland, morris? morris: i think it is great politics for scotland.

how can the u.k. stay in the way of their independence when they've done the same thing? i would go very aggressive into trying to break away. francine: and then renegotiate with the e.u.? perhaps, and if you can't get a better deal, see if you can go directly. i think this is great politics and they should move very quickly if they want to get something done. francine: let's talk again. . that's say there's a referendum in scotland. how does theresa may deal with this. kit: probably she says, have a ight,endum, it's your r then she goes full-court press on the economics of the referendum, in terms of scotland on its own, and brings it back to economics. francine: does it change her negotiation with e.u.? does it mean she couldn't go to general elections or there couldn't be a second referendum on brexit? kit: very difficult to see how that works. i don't think you get a

different result because scotland is having a referendum. i think the focus is, let's have the argument about scotland. ,ou can't be churlish and say we're going to decide to leave europe, but you can't leave the u.k. i think you fight it on public finances and economics and take it from there. they're having a difficult time with brexit as it is. this is going to be very hard, particularly if it is a hard brexit. folks in scotland are being politically expedient, they go fast. the chances are better if they try to do their own brexit now. if they are looking to get a better deal with the u.k., perhaps they are not as politically expedient. if i'm advising them, this is the time to do it. francine: who do you advise they talk to? i'm told that brussels are very difficult.

they see themselves as guardians of these treaties. does theresa may need to go to each country? and who does she speak to? morris: i don't think anyone would want to do anything for theresa may at this moment. i think there's a lot of anxiety and hatred at this moment. if she went there, that would probably work against her. kit: i would agree with that. i think what europe is doing is rallying around to stop any contagion. that is another of scotland's problems. we will get back to the individual countries that don't like the idea of bits of their countries pulling off. that is a theme that can come back. the rest of europe wants to hunker down, rally around itself. morris: it is uncharted waters. this will be a tbd. it depends on, are they being politically opportunistic, or do they want to try this and get a better relationship with the u.k.? francine: what does it mean for

pound? kit: probably not much. pound is more a function of the medium-term, of whether that economy continues to outperform expectations. at the moment it is still doing better than people thought it would do. the pound is reasonably well supported. francine: kit and morris reid both stay with us. dow's longest the winning streak since 1987 coming to an end. where will stocks had today? we discuss that next. we also have to look at francois fillon. he canceled a limit his appearances. now we understand from press that his wife is in custody. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: we're just getting some breaking news from france. francois fillon, candidate for the french presidency, has postponed his visit to a fair, and we've been finding out more

about maybe one of the reasons. nothing is really confirmed, but according to a french media outlet, a well-respected investigative media outlet, francois fillon's wife, implicated in affairs, this is alleged money that francois fillon would have paid to his wife, penelope, that was in notange for work which may have been done. we understand now that there are searches ongoing. toare trying to track down see exactly what is going on, but media part reporting that francois fillon's wife is in custody and there are ongoing searches on the premises. we are unclear whether this is the headquarters or whether it is in his personal home. what we do know and what i want to show you is a little bit possibly of reaction in terms of euro. euro at 1.0544. there were reports that something was going on because

he pulled out at the last minute from visiting this paris annual farm fair. he didn't give a reason for this and his team were not immediately available for comment. we will keep an i on that and the implications of that for the race. he's also due to give a speech in about an hour and a half. that is 12:00 paris time. we will have plenty more market reaction. first let's get to the bloomberg first word news. nejra: the chances of a u.s. rate hike this month have skyrocketed after two federal reserve officials signaled a greater willingness to tighten monetary policy. the caseudley told cnn for action had become a lot more compelling in recent months. san francisco fed chief john williams said he expects an interest rate increase will receive serious consideration at the oh-fer omc -- at the fomc's march meeting. theresa may is braced for a key

defeat on brexit in the house of lords. labour and the liberal democrat opposition parties are uniting toh theresa may's own party support an amendment. such a defeat would complicate the brexit timetable. scotland's first minister says a new independence referendum may be inevitable. nicola sturgeon said it could be the only way to protect her countries interest unless the u.k. softens its plan to leave the european union and its single market. the ceo of uber has apologized and said he will seek leadership health after a video emerged of him arguing with a driver. said he hadick treated the driver disrespectfully and said, that i'm ashamed is an extreme understatement. >> you know what, some people don't like to take responsibility. they blame everything on somebody else. good luck. nejra: global news 24 hours a

day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. we will talk about uber next. we're also getting breaking news out of the u.k. february manufacturing pmi falling to 54.6. the forecast was 55.8. we had some strong economic data in terms of retail sales. this manufacturing pmi, 54.6. we will see the impact on pound, 1.2371. on to equities and what we heard or didn't hear from donald trump. the dow jones' longest rally since 1987 came to an end yesterday. the s&p 500 also lost 0.25% ahead of donald trump's speech to congress. u.s. stock futures, you can see it on the bloomberg terminal, you can see there, higher this

morning. global us, ed shing, strategist at b.n.p. paribas. still with us, kit juckes from socgen and morris reid from mercury. ed, welcome to the program. what do you make of the enthusiasm that stays in equities despite the lack of detail, the lack of fundamentals? edmund: i would perhaps take issue with that last point, the lack of fundamentals. fundamentals.ys earnings forecasts have been revised up. i wouldn't say fundamentals are completely absent. i would agree that the u.s. worries me. francine: is it fundamentals on cost cuts or earnings or actual intoh that will translate companies spending and growing? edmund: these are earnings forecasts from the bottom up. these are companies that are theoretically going to make -- these are forecasts, but these are companies that should make more profit. that is good news.

there is a lot of optimism baked into the u.s. equity market today over the tax cuts and i think there's insufficient clarity over how you are going to finance those. is there going to be a border adjustment tax? is it going to be widespread? what is the impact on inflation and the u.s. consumer? i think the border adjustment tax needs to be fading into the distance. so how do you finance all this spending? is it going to be massive increase in deficit spending? i find it difficult that house republicans would accept that. where does the money come from? francine: give me a sense of what it would take for a correction in u.s. indices. [laughter] first of all, are they rallying on the back of trump, or was there a trend and this is just being excess of rated? edmund: very much the latter. the earnings momentum had started before trump came to power, before trump started

talking about the policies he wants to put in place. the devil is always in the detail. we have not had the devil in the detail yet, so we do risk finding out some rather unpleasant surprises. i think there will be unpleasant surprises for the u.s. in terms of timing. a lot of this stuff may come to pass, but when? people thinking a lot of these policies are going to be put in place this year. i think that is extremely unlikely. people underestimate how long it takes to get policies through congress. it takes a long time. you can't do it all at once. the market at the moment forgets that. francine: kit? it is quite --at the equity market seems to be sort of based on a strong police -- belief that the corporation tax cut is coming and even if the fed raises rates, we're not going to get some big upward

adjustment that blows the thing up. i think a lot of it does hang on, not damaging that belief that we get this tax cut, and secondly, not creating too much quo that there's a quid pro that is big on the other side of it? but if the inflation numbers don't get out of control, and if we just grind bond yields back up towards where they were before christmas, i don't think we're going to scare anybody. francine: morris, given the speech we had yesterday, can we read into it that a trade war is possibly less likely than it was three weeks ago? morris: there's no trade war. donald trump doesn't want a trade war. he wants to do one-on-one negotiations. he comes with the worst possible deal and he backs up. he doesn't want to do multilateral. he wants to do bilateral. on the stock market, to me the stock market is rallying on deregulation. as long as goldman sachs doesn't

get hurt, because that is really propelling the marketplace, as long as no one from goldman gets fired since they are all over his government, i think the market will continue to rally. i believe people are expecting to really republicans do deregulation. the tax cuts, i think that is a wait and see. certainly as long as there's the possibility of deregulation, which there certainly is, i think the market will continue to rally. francine: morris reid, ed shing, and kit juckes, stay with us. we are getting breaking news from the french presidential race. a spokesman telling us, french television station, that francois fillon is still running for french president. what we know according to media part, one of the investigative wife,s, francois fillon's penelope, is in custody while there's a search on going.

this reports to the misuse of public money. we will delve into that a little bit deeper. we will look at euro-dollar and the polls. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's check on the markets with mark barton. mark: investors overlooking trump's speech. digging about rate hikes now. the chief strategist at market securities, trump's speech turned out to be a nonevent given the lack of details. the real mov news is the move on fed funds. we are up to the highest level since december 2, 2015. the odds of a fed rate hike, fed

funds futures, just below 80%. swap market telling us there is an 80% probability. fascinating, after william dudley and his san francisco counterpart signaled a greater willingness to tighter monetary policy. goldman sachs increasing the odds of a rate hike in march to 60% from 30%, citing hawkish comments from william dudley. william said a rate increase is very much on the table for serious consideration. dudley said the case for monetary policy tightening has become a lot more compelling. yellen speaks friday. governor brainard speaks today. bloomberg dollars but index is rising him a gaining for a fourth day. highest level since january 22. that speech by trump has been overshadowed by talk march is very much alive. big month ahead of us. look at the share price decline

7.5%. billion euro worth of shares in the plastics maker. paring its stake in its former division to 53.3% from 64.2%. the shares were sold at a 6.4% tro'snt to confess tuesday closing price. francine: thank you so much. on to french politics. francois fillon is said to make a speech after postponing his visit to the paris farm show. a report by mediapart suggests his wife is in custody. joining us from paris is caroline connan. what we know is, according to mediapart, there are searches ongoing. francois fillon's wife is in custody and he will update us at 12:00. caroline: that is probably when we will know about his plans over the next few weeks.

he will maintain his candidacy as a republican candidate for the presidential election. as you know, at the end of january, when the investigation into his wife's employment and the allegations of misuse of public money for his wife's employment, he had said he would give up if he was charged. at the moment, he is not charged. concerns canlot of be found from the fact that his wife is being held at the moment. he kind of softened his tone over the past two weeks as well, saying that he wants to remain a candidate until the end. kind of pointing that he could remain a candidate even if he was charged in the investigation. fromard from his spokesman the agriculture fair just a few minutes ago, speaking to

television, saying he will remain a candidate. francine: if he steps down, who can replace him? that always led to believe they don't have a system if something were to happen, for someone to step in his shoes. anoline: that would be entirely new system that would have to be put in place. they don't have a system at the moment and time is running out. now,rch 17, 16 days from and a candidate who wants to be a candidate has to submit 500 signatures from elected officials. if he needs to be replaced, this has to happen very quickly in order to gather these 500 signatures. many names have been circulating. the candidate who came second in the primaries, alain juppe, has said he doesn't want to be back up. there has also been the name of the former finance minister under nicolas sarkozy.

also the name of the head of the northern region who also has an advantage, that he's already beaten marine le pen in regional elections in 2015. francine: thank you so much, caroline connan. still with us, kit juckes from socgen, morris reid from mercury, and ed shing from bnp paribas. kit, let me bring you over to my odd checker probability. if we pull up the bloomberg screen, it basically gives you probability. these are not polls. they are odds for the top three candidates. you can still see macron in red. i believe marine le pen is in blue. let's say you were to resign, francois fillon, because something happens. who would it play into the hands of? kit: it plays into the hands of emmanuel macron only to the extent -- your odds checker

chart would see that gap widen further just because there's a perception certainly in markets, but among people who bet on this kind of thing, that a centrist candidate can unify right and left more easily than someone on the right like francois fillon against marine le pen. it is an easier -- he is an easier candidate. the polls have been consistent saying that in the second round macron does better than field. d, you live in france and every time i speak to a french person, they say, it is never going to happen. no one would ever vote for marine le pen as president. do you think there's momentum behind her and does it depend on turnout? edmund: if you look at the opinion polls, just taking the facts, she's been very steady. she has an increased. she's been in the first round

consistently the number one candidate, but not increasing the share. , despite then problems francois fillon has had, she hasn't been an obvious beneficiary of a higher first round were second-round vote. if you look at the second round surveys, macron is polling consistently above 60% and le p en consistently below 40%. if anything, macron with the backing of another minority candidate has been increasing their lead. francine: we have the story saying that emmanuel macron is known in metro polls, but not in the provinces. edmund: he is an unknown quantity. he's never been elected. he was an economy minister, but on elected, something we are not used to in the u.k., but something that happens frequently in france. certainly among young people and in the cities, he has a lot of

popularity. his challenge is the lack of a party structure. he does not have the socialist party or an established structure behind him to get into the rural areas. francine: he's also an old hedge fund guy. there's questions of how he will be funded. morris, if you are in charge of his campaign, what would be your advice? morris: i was just here on monday having this conversation. francine: with him? morris: i won't disclose. advising him, i would go to rallies. i would be inspirational, aspirational. i would get out to the provinces very quickly. i would start to connect with voters and inspire them. france wants to be inspired. the problem with le pen is she has peaked. we say this about donald trump as well. we don't know. but if you look at the calculation, she has no room to

expand her base. macron has all the opportunity to expand. inspirational and we don't have any october surprises, he should be the winner. francine: i was speaking to one of her economic advisers and it was clear that he didn't want to answer what the french were voting on, security, immigration, or whether they would look at the economy. morris: i think the french right that theireel prestige is at a high demand. i believe they really want to get there right footing in the world again. they want to be inspired. they want something that is going to try to figure things out. i believe he has a unique chance to change the economy, to get more of the french back home, really focused on technology and finance, which would be a challenge to london. notay become president and have the parliament, which i think would be unprecedented in french history, which would be very challenging because of the

way the situation is structured. this is going to be an interesting time all around. francine: very quickly, if fillon were to resign, and his spokesman has denied it, but is it euro positive or not? kit: i don't think it changes that much. i think we've got far enough to the election and we've seen so much with the brexit vote, but more importantly donald trump, that markets will remain nervous now until the beginning of may, whatever. there are too many twists and turns. francine: thank you, morris reid, for joining us. kit juckes from socgen and ed shing from b.n.p. paribas both stay with us. china next.ng let's go to the bloomberg business flash first. nejra: nissan says profits could take a hit following brexit. it is the first time the carmaker has put a figure on estimated cost of the u.k. leaving the union. the senior vice president told

lawmakers in london that 10% tariffs on cars tilt in england and levies on parts would be disastrous. toshiba is said to be seeking offers for its memory chip business that value it at $13 billion. according to people familiar with the matter, it is offering a majority stake, but would even be willing to sell the entire operation. toshiba is grappling with a right down at its nuclear arm. a spokesman declined to comment. jpmorgan ceo has expressed broad optimism for u.s. growth and his own industry if donald trump's administration succeeds in reshaping taxes and regulation. jamie dimon was addressing investors in new york. regulation, you know, it is high time -- you look at it. no one in their rational mind could say what we do is completely rational, perfect, didn't hurt america. we're not fanatics about it. nejra: we know there was a crisis. and that is the bloomberg

business flash. francine: china's economy is showing more signs of stability with the official gauge beating output in february as producer prices rebounded. the new u.s. commerce secretary says the country will pursue tougher enforcement of trade rules. >> much tougher enforcement. there's not a lot of points making trade deals if you don't enforce. everybody. >> with china, what are you looking to do? >> you will see when we written up the enforcement. >> when can we anticipate that? >> as soon as we have a case prepared. ed, do you expect something ugly out of china? edmund: in the short-term, no. i think what we're likely to see is a continuation of the current policies of fiscal and monetary stimulus for china, until the

party congress at the beginning of the fourth quarter. why would china change direction? there are still huge questions over how to restructure the economy going forward. that is what we expect to hear more about. until then, i think they will do very little to endanger the current level of growth in china. francine: you trust the numbers? edmund: [laughter] you can never trust gdp numbers, but the underlying numbers actually are pretty solid. kit: i think the capital outflows have slowed. but history tells us that they slow for a bit and then they come back. the economic data are just good. the house price inflation is still somewhere between bubbly and very bubbly. credit growth is still too fast. they've tightened credit a little bit, but not nearly enough. francine: so we're not expecting

something, financial crisis, because -- kit: not yet. francine: which means what? we will see it in 3, 4 years? kit: this problem is it going to go away until the debt levels stopped growing so fast. francine: how concerned are you -- i know i'm going back to trade wars, but we heard from wilbur ross there. does china get easily antagonized. kit: china might get easily antagonized but at the moment they are probably happy. there was a trade deal being negotiated that benefited, if you like, japan relative to china. it has been ripped up and we are starting again. china is in a better place now than it was a year ago. they are in a better place within asia. the world leader playing golf with donald trump is japanese. francine: thank you, kit juckes,

global strategist at socio-general, and ed shing at b.n.p. paribas. "bloomberg surveillance" continues in the next hour. tom keene joins us out of new york. we will be talking to the arm holdings ceo. we will talk about brexit. they were bought by softbank and they promised to create jobs in the u.k. does that change anything? of course we cross back to paris for the latest on this presidential election as francois fillon, there's been quite a lot emerging on his wife , according to mediapart. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: the odds of the u.s. rate hike 4 after coming from

two officials. janet yellen speaks on friday. making america weight again. his first big in speech to congress but he gives little in the way of details. pres. trump: we will be asking congress to approve legislation that them -- that gives infrastructure to the united states. creating millions of new jobs. and in france, the wife of a french presidential candidate is reportedly in custody. searches are ongoing. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am in london. tom keene is in new york. there is a lot going on. treasuries, two year bond yields. trump and also the french presidential candidate. tom: the follow-up in the presidential speech -- we have good guests on that.

i am fascinated about the drama in france. give us your perspective. what is not being said at the moment? if francois fillon decides to resign because of this -- he has said if he was -- we have a vacuum. a vacuum on the right. we don't know if that plays into marine le pen hands. let's get more with the bloomberg first word news. taylor: we are going to start with the drama in europe. the wife of francois hollande fillon is in a custody. he employed his wife as a parliamentary assistant.

trump gave a different tone in his first joint address to congress. the president laid out familiar campaign promises but with few details on how to turn them into reality. he called for the repeal of obamacare, an increase in defense spending and an projector spending. pres. trump: i will be asking congress to approve legislation for financed through private and public capital, creating millions of new jobs. taylor: trump also said that reform is possible. he stuck to building the ball on the -- building the wall on the southern border. pres. trump: it is not compassion but reckless to allow uncontrolled entry to places from where proper vetting cannot occur. indicatedpublicans

afterwards that they are fine being left to sort out the details in the president's plan but there are big differences between trump and his party on a number of issues. toasia, malaysia has charged women with the murder of the half-brother of kim jong-un. namorities say king jong was killed with a deadly nerve agent. other suspects are believed to have fled to north korea. we are looking at figures from china today. the official factory index rose and producer prices rebounded. that gives chinese officials, who are gathering this weekend, a solid economic act drop as they tried to rein in financial risk. global news, 24 hours a day. powered by our more than 2600 journalists and analysts, in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. do the data.g to we are going to rip this up. i will give you a data check off of trump paschi each. trump's speech.

it is great to have francine because she can speak with french and keep us up to date with the story. 11, a big deal given the quiet. we have seen recently the euro is weaker. next screen. i want to get to the headlines. , the big level. the mexican peso has weakened two days in a row and there is the headline sadistic trouble have to watch as the president doesn't want a strong dollar and we do have a lift there. look at the headline from figaro right now. i am looking at the francois fillon campaign director offered to resign. francine, interpret for us? francine: i will tell you the news, which is basically this

we know that this show is extremely important for voters. it happens in france and we learned this morning that francois fillon decided not to show up so markets are nervous. we saw a check in terms of the euro-dollar. let me bring you my board because it relates to what we are seeing in france. he didn't show up at the media part. put outtigative source a story saying his wife is being investigated. if we link this back to what happened, this is because there was a scandal in january that he ago,isusing, 10-15 years public money by paying his wife for work she didn't do. we now understand that the wife, penelope, is being investigated. he has said if he was charged, he would step down. as you speak, media part

has come out to correct that story. let me read this carefully. in bloomberg headline team paris is keeping up with the headlines as quickly as they can -- legal source denies francois in custody. at the minimum, i can say that chaos in paris. again, the corrected headline from the media part news source, seconds ago. francine: media part is correcting. it is unclear whether media part is correcting the report or whether they are denying it. it is clear that what we know is ist francois fillon addressing his party in one hour from now and he has denied he will step down and we know that he didn't show up at this very important show two hours ago. something is going on. to talk tol be good somebody who has six decades of

correcting headlines -- that would be our marty schenker. how do you say fake news? tom: seriously, you have decades of experience. what is it like to be a senior officer on the ship when you have to correct the headline? marty: it is not a very friendly thing to do. but one of the tenants of bloomberg news is to immediately correct our mistakes so without hesitation, we do it. we don't like it and we like to keep it to a minimum but it happens. tom: francine, why don't you jump in here on the speech last night? i'm trying to figure out more on the media part. first of all, what is the tone of president trump? he seemed more presidential and to have softened his tone? marty: a new donald trump for that hour.

he actually did a terrific job resenting himself as a a candidate,-- not but the president of the united states. it was full of pomp and circumstance of the state of the union address. it had the trappings of tradition. and he was mostly on script. francine: but a lack of detail. why? marty: because he doesn't have the details. the bureau were scrambling to get a text of the the few hours before it was even delivered -- they were still working on it. so if they have trouble producing a state of the union speech, imagine how much trouble they have actually writing legislation? the people he was addressing are the people have to execute his plan and there is nothing to work with. francine: i was reading a great bloomberg view peace and it is

titled simply "what happened to rate?" 15% corporate tax is it dead? will markets correct? marty: he has been promising a tremendous tax reform package but now it has been linked to the repeal and replacement of obamacare. so it is unclear what the components of the tax plan are going to be. and now it is essentially being held hostage by internal discourse over obamacare. tom: we will speak to kevin's a really about this later in the late morning at 6:00 a.m. help me here with who wrote the speech for the president? the ban andduct of wing? on wing? they: it didn't feel like

stephen bannon dark vision that came in the inaugural address. it was up eight so i would say it is the more traditional people around trump who had something to say about the tone and tenor. and i wouldn't discount jerod and ivanka trump's role, as well. francine: great to speak to you. marty schenker. now, let's bring in erik nielsen. i don't know what it takes for markets to realize that the detail will be a long way coming. erik: that's right. it is mysterious in many ways. is thatreal issue here the global economy is doing really well. we did quite a lot of work looking at previous examples in countries where policies are vague and you cannot see a clear nervousmarkets getting

if the underlying economy is doing fine. so i think the market is looking -- we chat world and about trump all the time -- but it isn't really what makes the bias. academic optimism on europe, i would call it, and the overweight of american political economics -- when event happen, we have stability and smooth vector releases? or are you worried about instability within the financial system? erik: i don't really think there the system, per se. there are always risks around and the only real economic and financial risk i can think of, today, is china. it looks like they are handling it ok. so i wouldn't say it is an imminent threat but it is. economics there so it is difficult to identify clear, out

of control or out of balance imbalances. the underlying story is that the economy is picking up and it is doing so almost all around the world. francine: thank you so much. we have erik nielsen with us for the hour. we had to barcelona for a conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's talk tech and softbank purchasing britain's arm in july with a takeover agreement that

includes hiring obligations in the u.k.. with theresa may's plan to trigger brexit at the end of the month, what does that mean? simon very pleased that segars joins us now. how concerned are you now about brexit comic given the obligations that you have promised the government about hiring? well, we really care about being able to hire the best and brightest people. and we have grown successfully over the years by being able to expand globally. expanding our offices in places where the key talent is. and the u.k. is a big center for us. over our history we have hired people from all across europe and a brought them together to the u.k. and it has helped us grow and that is something we want to see continue. toncine: you have promised hire 3000 people in five years

and you promised that in june 2016. how many people have you hired so far? are you worried that the eu nationals that you have hired can't stay in the country? it certainly is a potential issue for us. since the acquisition close, we have hired a couple of hundred people into the u.k. so we are well on track for the undertakings in the first year. of people have lots in the u.k. who are from mainland europe and we have people who are married to people from the mainland europe. so at the top of their mind is being able to stay in arm and the u.k.. it is a situation we are monitoring carefully. we get positive reassurances from the people within government that we speak to. arm arm and companies like won't be penalized by what is going on. obviously, everyone is in a

state of uncertainty. tom: hewlett and packard started in a garage in california. what is cool about arm is that you started in a barn. one of the great themes we see is"bloomberg surveillance" the idea that the entrepreneurial technology can't access out of california. how do brands in europe and how does the united kingdom advanced technology entrepreneurship? what is the secret sauce? was more than a few years ago -- arm is 26 years old and we started small and we were spun out of acorn computers and the company started to grow in a barn in the cambridge countryside. for us, the willing formula -- the winning formula was having great technology and a smart group of people to higher -- two run the company.

to run the company. we took a global view of our business from day one. we focused on building an international business and that has been successful. tom: what do you need in the united kingdom to spur and advance stem education so there are more arms? not so much from prime minister may but from the zeitgeist of london to continue to jumpstart the education that leads to technology superiority? i think it is important that nationally, technology areaes a really important for investment, generally. it is important that education policies are set up to promote the learning about computing and technology in the classroom. set has to happen at the earliest possible stage.

important that teachers are educated about teaching people about technology and that technology isn't just talk for the sake of technology. that it is introduced in all areas of the curriculum. the way we see it is that all jobs in the future will have some strong technological element to them. so it doesn't matter what you are studying. it is important that technology is wrought into the classroom as part of the overall education. tom: thank you so much from ours alone a. that was mr. simon segars with arm as the tech event in ours alone up. today, looking forward to a conversation with david rubenstein. david rubenstein of carlyle group, look for that at 9:00 this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." in new york. let's get back to france because we have had quite a lot of headlines. francois fillon is due to speak in 40 minutes and we know for sure because we had a press release saying he will address his party so watch out for that. this comes after we had a chaotic morning. what we found out first thing coming into the office is that francois fillon was due to go to

-- but he decided not to go. and there was a report then denied by media parts that his wife, and ella b, who was inculcated in misappropriation of funds 15 years ago -- that she was being summoned and was actually in custody. that press agency has now said that they have not been summoned or she is not in custody but we do have sick arose saying the wife has been summoned to appear in front of judges on march 18 and that francois fillon is due to appear in front of judges on march 15. erik nielsen is here to help us figure out what is going on. this is chaotic at best. erik: it is chaotic in a french political sense but the good news is that we have -- if he had not dropped out of nowhere to be a candidate, we would have

been in a bind between marine le pen and a relatively less when -- a relatively left-wing candidate. if francois fillon drops out and the party can deliver another one or however it plays out, there is still a runoff between macron and marine le pen. the state of the french economy? it is like the rest of europe and the rest of the world is picking up gross quite nicely. the beauty in france is that there is not any significant imbalances. the budget deficit isn't particularly large. ofre is no great debt out the normal round -- the normal range. tom: if it is fine, can they generate a populist spirit to get someone like marine le pen elected?

is there the anger that we saw in the united states that advantage donald trump? erik: i really don't think so. i think marine le pen would have a huge problem getting over 25% of the votes. she is a very divisive, in a way. the only fear is the same as before. she will make it almost certainly into the second round and once you have one against one, you never know really what will happen. there are issues of fake news and there could be new disasters. so that is the nervous and uncomfortable saying. francine: erik nielsen there. francois fillon is said to speak and 35 minutes. we will bring you that. this is bloomberg. ♪

fromine: live pictures washington, d.c.. look at that. capitol hill where a lot is going on after the trump speech yesterday.

i would also point to the fact that we have seen a recalibration on the markets after the very hawkish speeches from the fed. so a big evening for the fed. it really brought down -- we have had huge applications on the dollar and treasuries. let's get to the first word news with taylor riggs. taylor: we will stick in the u.s. with the trump comments. it was a different sounding trump who spoke to the joint session of congress. he kept aside the harsh rhetoric of the first few weeks of his presidency and laid out a list of priorities that are familiar from his campaign. ranging from a military buildup to an infrastructure program to tougher negotiations on trade. pres. trump: i believe strongly in free trade. what it also has to be fair trade. i am not going to let america and its great companies and workers be taken advantage of us any longer. they have taken advantage of our

country. no longer. president said there is a chance for real reform on immigration but didn't back away from the tough statements he has made. those given the high honor of admission to the united states should support the country and love the people and the values. allow terrorism to form inside america. we cannot allow our nation to become a sanctuary for extremists. taylor: the president provided no details on how to turn the plan into reality. republicans indicated they are fine with having to sort that out later. two officials of the federal reserve are showing a greater interest in raising interest rates as soon as next month. dudley told cnn that the case for raising rates has become johncompelling and williams says the hike will receive serious consideration at next week's meeting. global news, 24 hours a day. powered by our more than 2600 journalists and analysts, in

more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you. let's go to the chart. michael mckee is with us. i think he showed me this chart around the van buren administration. this is the deficit gdp of the united states. these vectors are not good. president trump has no chance of a clinton surplus, does he? michael: there isn't a scenario you can construct right now to create one. tom: what is the scenario that would be his wee holiday after we saw pomp and circumstance last night? michael: they may be able to boost growth by spending money. this will create long-term growth. you need productivity growth and labor force growth for that. this point, there isn't much

more he can do because we didn't give us details. tom: we have a great phrase. trump-economics. everyone has nomics. ronald reagan brought a plan to office. cut taxes and spend more money, you can stimulate the economy and as far as it goes, that is true. jump in here.ine, francine: i want to talk about job creation. if you look at job creation there was a softer president trump as he talked about bringing american jobs back to americans. how much of this will come from good quality jobs? you know exactly how they will do this, you can't say. he said he would bring back millions of jobs -- no. that's not going to happen because the reason we lost

factory jobs is because of automation. the problem with the object are planning, it would in theory create construction jobs led there are not very many construction workers left. so even if we have the jobs, there is not a lot to fill them. so there are holes in the plan that you can't fill in with data because we don't know how this is going to work out. francine: what is the one thing we can say with certainty -- do tax cuts and the 15% tax rate that he has promised -- does that create jobs in america? michael: it would create jobs if he could get it passed. they have a $1 trillion hole that they hope to fill by bringing down the corporate tax in a lot ofthat is trouble on capitol hill. they don't have another way to deal with this and yesterday, there was some talk about what ,ou do is change the tax system

talking about tax things where they are consumed what you don't lower the tax rate significantly from 35%. tom: the first lady wore michael kors last night but i don't know war butaker paul ryan he is the most important person in the room. what is the power to just say no to trump economics? he has a lot of power on the tax side. but he has a divided caucus right now. there is no agreement on what they should do. teafreedom caucus, the party remnants, they came out yesterday and said, we don't like the obamacare package that you are put on the table and we will vote against that. tom: this is critically important. what michael is saying. is this what we saw with speaker john boehner a year or two years ago? francine: the money question is

what erik nielsen brought up -- if you had 15 minutes with trump right now to understand where the economy is going, what would you ask him? erik: i don't think he knows. francine: but what would you ask? see very many people in the white house who seem to look at a lot of the data and see where we are. that is the first problem. said, the real issue is that america has full employment now. aree are people who unemployed but they are not active so potentially you could bring them in. but i suspect those who are not active now are not going to build pipelines. so the whole thing is a bit voodoo for me. i don't really see the logic of it. but the question is, how does this add up on the fiscal side? we have heard this story before.

and the best i can understand from it is bringing gdp up by 3% at this point but no chance. francine: his tone was a little bit more presidential yesterday and he retreated from the border tax? right.hat's we will see how long it lasts. the tone was better. whether he can put the genie back in the bottle remains to be seen. the border tax is terrible, right? the whole idea on the tax reform side is bad. that is bad. tom: erik nielsen is too young to remember this, michael mckee, but we can go back to 19 78. will we see a "tax reform" or is this a modern fake tax reform? michael: you could say that the reform is ripe for some

changes. expensing, 100% expensing upfront would generate additional spending by corporations. but the idea of an overall tax cut is certainly not going to happen in the timeframe we are talking about. remember the name of the book that was written about the 1986 tax reform? allaven't even heard from of the lobbyists yet who will line up outside the ways and means committee to get special tax breaks for their organizations or industries. this will be a long, hard slog for the president. tom: for global translation that is k street? north of the white house? the gucci store is near the washington bureau. gucci gulch is near the bloomberg. francine: there you go.

i'm sure they are looking at dollar dynamics. although i think the designers can do no wrong at this point. let me bring you to my terminal. the probability of a rate hike in march is 82%. telling us officials that march is a live meeting and they want to hike in march? erik: i thought so. deadly -- fromom dudley and williams, they are so good at talking. they wouldn't say this if they were not really thinking that march was on the agenda. tom: we will not continue with michael mckee because we are part of gucci gulch. full disclosure. there we go. [laughter] francine: come on, tom. tom: no, no, will you show it? [laughter]

of milton academy, we will speak to the former of economic advisers working with president obama. look for that in the 10:00 hour. ♪

that.ne: look at beautiful. it is even sunny in berlin. "bloomberg surveillance" from london and new york. let's bring you to berlin. he was in berlin. we have been bringing you big names.

jason kelly is there now with a special guest. over to you. yes, we are here at the super return conference in berlin. whos who and one of the big .s with me is todd krzyzewski we are coming off of the news of hearing trump last night talk about the appeals and replacement of obamacare. is this something that you have been working on as a health care expert? what does that mean for the private equity industry? todd: who's who is very generous. my day job has really been, as one of the co-heads of the health care investment activity -- we spend a lot of time tracking the regulatory change. real changes happen below the surface.

the incredible rate of employment and the shift in the cost. all of these have been seismic changes. the last fiven years then previous decades. it has brought a lot of opportunity. costu can improve the efficiency of health care services, you can make great companies. we have invested in 11 companies and these are companies we have tracked for years and we have had buyers over the last four years. if you can get it right in a time of dislocation and change, you can benefit. as to what is around the corner, continued change. there is a lack of clarity right now as to what will come out of washington but it will be an interesting time for health care investors. more investment is to come. jason: one of the big things

here is that we are in a world awash with money. i have to think it is hard to stand out in a world like this. how do you do it? what is the page? itch? i appreciate that. it is true. it is even more true today, because in some respects, we are returning capital and we are investing at the pace that we have planned and returning capital at almost three times that pace. as a result, there is a lot of capital and people want their allocations in a private equity. what we need to do and what a lot of our partners and i have talked about, is stick to our strategy. for us, it is pretty clear. we invest heavily in the sector teams. we spend years thinking about -- in trends -- but seems with

the sector that we can deploy resources against and create an ecosystem around. not only finding opportunities that are differentiated and oftentimes are proprietary but companies that we can grow once we own the companies. long-term sector driven investors, i think it is growth investors. i think we spent years looking for the companies and the management teams and once we own the business, we continue investing and we grow it until we create something special. jason: does it steelmaking get harder with the money out there? todd: i think it does but you have to stick to what you are good at. what is interesting and what is actionable. what is actionable is what the investment banks -- a company that goes to 10-12 of your hostess trends and you get a dinner. we have found that we are not very good at the actionable without angles or perspective.

50 weekse have to put in the water to get two over that at ims -- some of the deal that have been involved with -- for us, it is worth the payoff. in an environment like this, it is all the more important that you figure out what her strategy is, you build your ecosystem and invest in your ecosystem. find au take your time, differentiating angle and frankly, the deals we have put out has been exactly consistent with what we have tried to do. even as the world has gotten more competitive. jason: one area where it has been especially competitive is technology. this is a space that you have played in. can you continue to be competitive given the money that is there? chasing after big tech deals? todd: i think we can be very competitive. absolute team there.

if you think about technology, you have to go to the subsectors. cybersecurity -- the two crimes people fear the most is their identity being stolen or a computer being hacked. this is an area that is becoming more top of the mind. we have been focusing on that for years. we have a series of small fundtment to the growth that have helped to ascertain what the landscape is. and after years of knocking on the door, we have now taken that in partnership with the parent company of intel -- what was essentially a proprietary dialogue -- and we are convinced we can take it to the next level. we have a specific plan. it wasn't the competitive process. it is the importance of focusing ahead of time. caa.nt, media, investments in cirque du soleil.

these are investments as a result of years of working in different segments of technology where we could have a differentiated approach and angle. .ason: todd sisitsky thank you for spending a few moments with us on a very busy day. back to you in london. francine: that was jason kelly speaking with todd sisitsky. us. nielsen stays with this week, bloomberg is launching a new show hosted by jonathan ferro each friday at noon focusing on global issues and events that directly affect markets. we will host the biggest names in the field and provide critical analysis. yield."loomberg real this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: let's bring the focus back to france with the french presidential candidate francois fillon, who will speak in a few minutes. still with us in london is erik nielsen from unicredit.

talk is through the morning that was? it was chaotic. his wife was in custody and now they are denying this? very early this morning, the first news we had is that he was canceling his visit today at the agricultural fair, which is where all the candidates have been campaigning over the past few days. and then you had the report saying that his wife was in custody and then they corrected the information on their it was, saying that denied. a spokesperson for francois fillon, who actually made it at the agricultural fair, said he was maintaining his bid to run for president. and finally, a few minutes ago, the figaro newspaper said that francois fillon and his wife

will be called to speak to judges on march 15 and march 18. so a lot of excitement ahead of the press conference that will clarify all of this. francine: this seems like a mess. said iffrancois fillon he is charged, he will step down. on march 15,judge which is also the end possible date to find another candidate, what does this mean for the race? saidine: this is what he at the end of january when the investigation started. his first, it is -- i will give up if i am charged. two weeks ago he did an interview where he softened his tone on this one. saying he wants to remain a candidate and he will stay until the end. a reminder of the press conference he did that he said he would go until the end of the election, until a victory. time is running out. march 17 is the deadline for all

of the candidates to submit their candidacy. they need to collect 500 signatures from elected officials. if he is summoned by a judge a couple of days before this deadline, it could complicate things for the candidate. francine: thank you very much. when you look at these, these are odds and not polls, you can see marine le pen here, if something were to happen to , what his votes in the second round automatically go to mac ron? think it is a big game changer. what we have seen is that marine le pen voters are marine le pen voters. as you can see in your line, francois fillon if francois fillon -- in your line, if francois fillon were to drop

out, there will be some folks who don't show up to vote for macron and marine le pen would gain a little bit. but a 34% probability is still scary for marine le pen. it is high. it happens one every three times. so it is not good. more chaotic than the united states of america? we will continue with erik nielsen. in the next hour, on "bloomberg excuse me, i lost track of the clock here. in the next hour, john silvia from wells fargo on the president and the american labor economy. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: this morning, from carnage to removal of the american

spirit, president trump response .o republican ovation democrats sit on their hands. now the hard part -- a trump wishlist of austerity. in this hour, kevin cirilli. a stronger dollar. we speak with john foley, and a report that was a wrong report but was corrected. he isle bit of chaos and due to speak very shortly. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg lacqua,ance." francine basically it's chaos within the campaign, correct? francine: the problem is he pulled out of the big event in reports. there were but i cannot say how respected they are that his wife is not under custody.

we are waiting to see exactly what he will announce. he is due to speak any moment. tom: for a global audience, who is he and where is he on the political spectrum? why the uproar? francine: he is a right-wing candidate. he is not as far right as marine le pen. he is a believer of reforming europe. that is how he would describe himself, but he has been tainted because he has been prime minister in the past and is considered part of the establishment. early january, there was this allegation of misuse of public funds where he allegedly employed his wife and kids without them doing much work. tom: we will pay careful attention to this speech scheduled. right now to keep you abreast of the news, here is taylor riggs. taylor: we will start with u.s. politics. trump sounded as dow

different tone could he laid out promisescampaign progres with few details on how to turn them into reality. the call for the repeal of rebuilding ofthe our economy. >> i will announce legislation that introduces a $1 trillion investment in infrastructure in the united states, financed by public and private capital, creating millions of new jobs. taylor: president trump says real reform on immigration as possible. he stuck to his pledge to build a wall on the southern border and wants a closer examination of anyone being allowed to immigrate into the u.s.. >> it is not compassionate, but reckless to allow uncontrolled entry in places where proper vetting cannot occur. taylor: republicans indicated afterwards that they are fine with being left to sort out the

details in the president's plan, but there are big differences between president trump and his party on a number of issues. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries, i'm taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. datalet's do a little da check and then get to kevin cirilli in washington. dow futures are up 88 as we speak. the curve was flattening earlier , but 114 basis points is a big deal. er on theis weak dollar strength. any print of 102 would be a big deal. er overican peso weeak the last three days. francine: looking at the wr afp debbie irp function, it is pricing the chance of a march height.

we had some pretty good data out of china. tom: let's go to washington. our chief pomp and circumstance reporter kevin cirilli has given us such great perspective. i get it. there were even jokes. they are clapping and the democrats aren't clapping. i want to know the back story. how divided are the republicans with their president? kevin: it remains to be seen with president trump in his joint address to congress calling for a $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan. i spoke with several republicans after this address, including house financial services committee chairman jeb hensarling. they all said they want to make sure that this president has a way to pay for it. he is going to have to play political referee between the tea party and the more moderate centrist wing of the republican party. tom: lindsey graham, i believe he'd used the phrase dead on

arrival. what will be the budget process for the president to sell the story? what is the process? kevin: two dates we have to keep our eyes on the calendar -- mark will submit he his total to the congress. of then april 28, the end april. that is when the republican-controlled congress will have to pass some type of government funding bill if they want to avert a partial government shutdown. in politics, any type of shutdown is devastating for any political party. republicans want to avoid that at all costs. francine: what do we find out about health care in the speech yesterday? kevin: he did not take a side on a host of plans making their way through congress. however, he did suggest he wants to keep key parts of the that aree care act

popular, including the notion that would protect and provide health care access to those with pre-existing health conditions. popular very probabl aspect of president obama's legislation. he has to get health care done before he can get to the thing he really wants to tackle, which is tax reform. francine: i know you have many sources within the trump administration. where they a little bit apologetic at the lack of detail or did they say they need a little more time? kevin: they feel they hit the speech out of the park. they feel president trump had a political home run last night. they're looking at several internal polls as well as focus groups suggesting a such. they like it so much that they actually delayed the controversial executive orders that were scheduled for today on immigration from the seven predominantly muslim nations in the middle east that were juxtaposition with the ones struck down by the ninth district.

they are delaying that until next week to try to ride this wave of good publicity. tom: one final question. i asked this of marty shanker in the last hour. what is the power of speaker ryan? what is the power of the chairman of the ways and means committee to adapt and change the trump certitude? kevin: house speaker ryan really wants to be the one in charge with tax policy and that is is i his issue that he wants to focus on. there are several within trump's top inner circle are able to press speaker ryan. there are several issues that could pose a political thorn in for speaker ryan. tom: kevin cirilli, thank you so much. i had more sleep than you did. i should make that mistake. let's get to john.

you get lucky with a political economic debate where you can speak with john silvia. john silvia of wells fargo, one of our true ligh experts on labor an employment. the stronger dollar and the strength that mr. similarly was talking about -- where do you think we will be in two years? do you assume fiscal stimulus? john: i assume some fiscal stimulus, but i expect you will see a continued trend toward higher interest rates and the fed making two or three moves and that the stronger dollar stays in place. tom: the stronger dollar stays in place and i guess it comes back to this guy needs wage growth. we all need economic growth. modelingwells fargo gdp? can you get above 3%? john: certainly not for 2017 you are going to get it.

one of the slight disappointments is that it appears that any kind of significant tax reform is being put off until 2018. we are still 2-2 .5% this year. 3% is a ways to go. whatine: a way to go to up level? john: the focus has to be that you can get 3% 43.5% for one year or so, but the challenge is it going to be sustained over time? what is happening on the supply side in terms of labor force participation rates and participation in the economy and particularly the feedback effect? with a stronger dollar, you will have a challenge on exports. was slightly higher inflation rates, you will have a challenge in housing and auto finance. stronger growth is going to have certain implications.

that second and third tier impact is going to be slightly negative for the overall economy. francine: is this something the trump administration can do to mitigate that? john: basically again, trying to get people to work, improving labor force growth, making sure there are investments open human capital and physical capital to improve the productivity numbers. that is where i think it just cannot be let's cut taxes. they can't simply be corporate tax reform, personal income tax reform with no consideration of how we are going to get the supply-side moving. tom: ever core isi was here yesterday and they talked about wage growth as the referee of all this. help us here, oh wise one. are we going to see wage growth? particularly are we going to see inflation-adjusted wage growth? john: we are seeing inflation wage growth in certain special skills. so the i.t. area, the finance

area, those kind of education-based skills really are seeing real wage growth . tom: come on, john. that's 12 people in the economy. [laughter] we saw wage growth with the boston red sox by signing chris sale from the white sox. that.ne saw john: that is trumps challenge. focused onn based that second and third tier quintile and the united states. china to get wage growth for them is going to be very difficult. tom: we will continue with dr. sylvia of wells fargo. we are bouncing back-and-forth between politics and economic debate. really looking forward to speaking to mr. valliere about

the to do list for republicans. last night, democrats sitting on their hands. there is the first lady in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am taylor riggs. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. sell itss looking to membership business and evaluation of $13 billion, less than earlier reports suggested. toshiba is willing to sell either a majority stake of the unit or the whole business. the company is reeling from losses in its u.s. nuclear division and wants to stabilize its balance sheet.

it was a big year for gasoline at u.s. refineries. both consumption and export set records in 2016. american drivers drove more than ever and demand from latin america increase. improvements at refiners allow them to satisfy demand in both markets. bp says that by 2021a can cover spending and dividends, even with oil selling for as little as $40 a barrel. right now the british energy company's breakeven point is $60. bps ceo plans to lower the breakeven level by keeping capital spending no more than $17 billion a year. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: thank you so much. there is no one i would rather talk about washington political economics this morning that greg valliere of horizon investments. ofmakes a cottage industry looking at the nation's politics from the prism of finance and investment and indeed the budget an deficit as well.

what will speaker ryan do after the pomp and circumstance we observed last night? greg: well, he has got to get a deal on obamacare, tom. that is the number one problem and he has got a lot of conservatives who don't like what they are hearing. they are hearing about a reform bill that might actually cost more money. that still is the problem that has to be resolved before we can get on to all these good things like tax cuts. tom: i was explaining to family last night the upper over what the first lady was wearing. i was explaining rockefeller republicanism. did we hear speech from nelson rockefeller last night? greg: part of the speech bernie sanders could've delivered, going after pharma pricing, infrastructure spending, and most astonishingly talking about an immigration reform bill that would allow citizenship for 11 million people in the country. he is not pigeonholed.

he is not a conservative republican. he is a populist who is all over the lot. tom: i want to get this question that so important and it speaks to the guns and butter debate. the political dialogue came to a stop in new hampshire months ago when we confronted the east coast opioid epidemic. we talk about kentucky and west virginia, but new hampshire shocked the nation on this. is this budget planning -- do they have enough butter in it to get the votes from congress? greg: on issue after issue, including the wall and drugs, i think he will spend the money. if there is a theme here in all of these stories, it is that the deficit is headed higher. i think he is relatively indifferent to the issue of the deficit. that's another thing that conservative republicans object to. looking atreg, i'm the figures and want to come back to what you said on

corporate tax. national debt is $20 trillion. unfunded entitlement obligations is $200 trillion. how can he cut tax significant we in terms of these numbers? greg: he has got the votes. that's the most important thing. if there's a theme we will talk about all year long, he has got the votes. of his 22 cabinet nominees, he got 21. i think he will prevail on taxes. the deficit will go up, but the last time i checked, the treasury 10 year bond deal was 2.3 something. i think the markets may have rates go higher, but he is determined to jumpstart this economy. and on this issue, he is not a traditional conservative. he is a keynesian. francine: are speaking to a political analyst who said possibly president obama could've done the same if he had done it right at the beginning of his presidency to use that political will. how much time do you get donald trump to push through this tax

reform? greg: let's look back eight years ago. what derailed the obama administration early? health care. trump and the republicans have ground to a halt on health care. they have got to get this out of the way and do it soon. tom: greg maleate, thank you so much. looking forward to your research note on horizon. we will speak to him on radio as well this morning. vallierendsome greg looking beautiful on tv . you can bring up a previous segment and you can import the chart over to your bloomberg. we spent years on the best are. -- the death star. there is michael mckee. tv -- don't leave home without it. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." we need to talk about the fed. the chances of the u.s. rate hike have jumped after william dudley said the case for action has become a lot more compelling. chief johnco williams says he expects a rate increase will receive serious consideration at the fomc march meeting. we're back with john silvia from wells fargo. let's bring you over to my bloomberg terminal. this isn't exactly what the fed wanted -- 82% probability. is it because they want to hike or at least keep the option open

of hiking in march? john: think the market is assessing the fed has the economic numbers and certainly they have the commentary that will support a rate hike coming in march. particularly what we are looking for is what will be said on friday by chair yellen. we at wells fargo look at that w.a.r. p function everyday -- wrip function everyday to see the likelihood of the fed move. it is particularly the ecp data heading toward 2% and that is giving people a lot of confidence that the fed will in fact move. francine: the market has changed its perception on what donald or was it.t say we on what the fed presidents -- purely oning what the fed presidents have been saying? john: i think it is the commentary. williams and deadly all supporting the idea that a rate increases on the table and seriously being

consider. ed. tom: i love the 2% level right here. this is the pc deflator. here's the oil drop off, $100 a barrel oil. down we go on the regular inflation. forget about that. this is what stan fischer and chair yellen look at. it is migrating up to 2%. here's the money question. john silvia, francine lacqua, and tom keene rop are at 2.52% -- are up here at 2.52 percent. why we focused on this when the rest of america is living at cleveland cpi inflation? john: that is what the fed tells us they are watching and that is what we will follow. that is their indicator and that is where we are going. i think we have already achieved full employment. tom: some say you are nuts.

there are millions of people not working. john: the problem is it is structural unemployment. it is not in unemployment number that can be dealt with monetary policy. it really has to be reform. that goes back to your earlier question about the supply side of this economy. tom: john silvia, we will continue. francine: certainly we will. bloomberg is launching a very new show -- "bloomberg really yield." jonathan ferro will focus on global news and events that directly affect debt markets. watch that today and a couple of hours. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: "bloomberg surveillance" -- it's a back-and-forth in new york. it's like a late winter or early spring in new york. and can't figure out what it wants to do.

a chill on saturday is rumored as well. let's get to our first word news on the president. here is taylor riggs. in the u.s., it was a different sounding president trump who spoke to a joint session of congress. be cast aside the harsh rhetoric of his first few weeks of his of presidency. he laid out a list of priorities that were familiar to his campaign from a military buildup to tougher negotiations on trade. >> i believe strongly in free trade, but it also has to be fair trade. i'm not going to let america and its great companies and workers be taken advantage of us any longer. they have taken advantage of our country. no longer. taylor: the president says there is a chance for real reform on immigration. he did not back away from any of the tough statements he has made. >> those given the high honor of admission to the united states should support this country and

love its people and its values. a week set ofw terrorist to form inside america. we cannot allow our nation to become a sanctuary for extremists. taylor: the president provided no details on how he would turn his plans into reality. congressional republicans say they are fine with having to sort it out later. to influential members of the federal reserve's are willing to raise interest rates as soon as this month. william dudley told cnn the case for raising rates has become more compelling. san francisco fed president john williams says a rate hike will receive real consideration at this month's meeting of policymakers. the scottish first minister says another vote on independence might be inevitable. he says it's the only way to see interest unless they soften the plan to leave the european union. he is called on theresa may to

agree to a deal to allow scotland to maintain c key components to and eu membership. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm taylor riggs. francine: they getting breaking news and we will bring you to these live images. this is the french candidate fillon talking after very messy morning. he is confirming that he is being summoned by investigative judges. he believes the objective is to charge him. for our global audience, tom, if we look at the odds of the presence of candidates, in january, fillon was the person that a lot of people in the markets thought would win. then you had the allegations. he had allegations of misuse of public funds. this has now led to an

investigation to see whether he has or has not given money to his wife and children. he again saying he did not commit any wrongdoing, but the investigation on whether he give this money to his wife and sons for work that they did not do. so this has taken his popularity down quite significantly. this morning, he canceled an appearance on a very popular agricultural show. after that, there was speculation that actually his wife was being summoned by police this morning. they had to deny that. it has been a very messy morning for fillon, who is now addressing his party members live at headquarters in paris. are reporter on the ground -- our reporter on the ground, how difficult is this for fillon ? >> we have to see what he says and that few minutes. the only thing we know so far is that the speech started two

minutes ago and there is concern that he is being summoned to be heard by three judges on the 15th of march and that may lead to him being put under formal investigation. he also just said that he thinks he has not been treated like every other citizen since the investigation started at the end of january. it was a very messy morning for fillon. visit at anhis agricultural fair and there were various reports that his wife may have been held into custody. these reports came out this morning, but it was later denied coul. at the moment, he is maintaining his business and we will see what he has to say over the next few minutes. francine: i find it quite outstanding. he says it with a presence in of innocence and the rule of law is being ignored.

he says he is the victim of political assassination. if you were have to resign, what happens to his party? find aparty will have to new system in place to replace a candidate in the deadline of march 17 when all the presidential candidates have to be declared. the names that have been circulating is the candidate who came number two in the republican primary. he was repeatedly said that he does not want to bring back his plan, but we have reports that say they spoke on the phone this morning. he also spoke with nicolas sarkozy on the phone. here.elp me the guy lives in a castle on the river, i believe. it's like "beauty and the beast."

what does this mean for ms. le pen and what does this mean for ist to vote in france? is this good for madame le pen? >> it's a very good question, tom. the political analysts we have been speaking with this morning on bloomberg are all saying that this could benefit a vote in .avor of marine le pen more than 80% of the people who want to vote for marine le pen are pretty sure of their choice, which is different case for fillon. francine: i need to interrupt you. we are just getting that breaking news. saying once again that he will stay in the french presidential race. we heard from him denying any wrongdoing. he believes this is political assassination. we have heard that before.

i wonder if you actually think of his reasoning, he says i am being treated unfairly, but he could be seen and it depends on the various polls that will come out in the next couple of days, but he could be seen once again as the elite who also refuses to recognize that he could've done any wrong doing. when you look at marine le pen, who is considered as a direct swep disruptor, it could play to her hand. tom: i'm looking at this moment in french politics. frame for us the stability of the system. how will a monde react to this? how will figaro react to this? how will the elites of paris react to this moment or is it another crazy day at the races? and we cancrazy day expect the newspapers to react like they have been doing. to presss now had conference is following this investigation, saying he will maintain his bid. interviewing

various people and his party who might not support the fact that he wants to maintain his candidacy. there will be a lot of discussions among the elite about whether the judicial sanctions do him just. tom: there was a comparison of stature perspective with mr. fillon. i think our audience knows a lot about social and french politics. who is this guy like? is he more like charles de gaulle? who in french history leads us to mr. fillon? >> p is much more on the right the -- he is much more on right wing, but he definitely defends the legacy of president charles de gaulle. you can compare him to hi some other candidates. he defends the idea of closer

ties with russia, for example. he also wants to ease the tension with the newly elected president donald trump in the u.s.. definitely following the legacy of charles de gaulle, but a bit more on the right wing that some of the other republican candidates we have seen in the pats. st. francine: he calls himself a saturate. state andhe welfare you have hundreds of thousands of people who are bureaucrats and france and he wants to blow it up. the problem with this is that when you go to ask the people whether this is what they want, some do, but the bureaucrats, at the last thing they want. they have questions of whether he should tone that down. tom: i think it means reporting by you and me april in paris. francine: done. breaking news. [laughter]

oline, thankar you so much. coming up today, a conversation with austan goolsbee, former chairman of the u.s. council of economic advisers. look for that at 10:00 a.m. in new york and 3:00 and london. this is bloomberg. ♪

taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am taylor riggs. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. uber ceo travis kalanick admits he needs leadership help. this comes after he got into an argument about company affairs with an uber driver who recorded the incident and give it to blaber. >> you know what? some people don't like to take responsibly furth for their --.

good luck. taylor: callan excess he has apologized -- travis kalanick says he has apologized to the driver. it's the latest incident for uber. many uninstall their accounts kalanick ended a strike protesting contraband. -- trumps ban. no details were disclosed, but the deal is likely to be in the tens of millions of dollars. the obama's plan to donate a portion of their earnings to charity. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: coming up shortly, it is bloomberg daybreak: americas. i know you're excited about skype. bridge. the: theme is the

president of the united states making a lot of headlines. the new york fed made the most news and recalibrating the odds of a hike from the federal reserve, but we look to france . another twist in the french election. tom: i look at the french election and its moving and moving. it really comes down to the populism in france in gauging against mr. trump. johnathan: and what happens in the second round. got into the second round, it would be interesting to see what happened with le pen. to me it's another story this morning and it's the anti-elite movement that the candidate fillon is feeling at the moment. tom: looking forward to that this morning. john silvia with us from wells fargo. the greatest research i've seen on technology out there is the mckinsey global institute.

with us this morning from san ua andsco, michael sh we want to talk about automation and a productivity in our fear of robots. i have to rip up the script. guy in saw the uber there is a new flap and all that. what our global audience is saying is what is in the air in san francisco? what is in the air in silicon valley? where does this arrogance come from? do you do a study on that at mckinsey? michael: i cannot promise a study on arrogance. it's an exciting place to be, but there's also a lot of young people there. you get all of the exuberance and sometimes all the challenges of youth. tom: is it taught in a leading technology schools, stanford, caltech, carnegie mellon --does it beginning college? or does it get off the airplane

in sfo with this whole california zeitgeist? michael: as far as i can tell, there are no classes on arrogance. we have humble people and other folks in the area. tom: you guys have been very humble with great humility about the reports. time after time after time. now you do automation. should americans fear about automation? michael: our point of view is that in order for growth to continue, we not only need the robots and machines, but we need everybody working at the same time. it will take some time for that to happen. our view is because of demographic trends in aging that we simply won't have enough workers. we need the robots, but we need all the workers as well. as people are displaced by automation, how do we re deploy them? francine: michael, are we confusing globalization and

innovation? if you look at the populist wave, is it because of and theation globalization backlash or is it because people are losing their jobs because of innovation and automation? john: when someone loses their job, they are trying to understand why that might happen. our research is really forward-looking. some other academic researchers seems to indicate that more job loss has come out as a result of automation and technology and changes in management the necessarily trade. michael: at the same time, what our research shows is that the increasing potential of automation to increase productivity. for the past 50 years, about half the economic growth we have seen has become of increases in the employment of people and half because of productivity. because of aging, we are about to lose half of the sources of our economic growth coming from more people being in the workforce simply because of aging in every country. right now, china's number of workers is declining.

that is happening in japan as well. the u.s. also has similar demographic trends. with immigration and might be better. we need machines and automation to do the work. francine: given the demographics you laid out for the u.s., what can the trump administration do to mitigate the backlash? michael: we don't give policy advice, so i can't comment specifically on any administration. the things we need to do is to be able to make sure that people can reenter the workforce even ask this plasma occurs as a result of automation. that will take time. if we take a look of the potential for 50% of our activities to be automated, that's not going to happen in our review for several decades. this is happened before. in 1900, 40% of the u.s. workforce was in u.s. agriculture. about seven years later, less than 5% was.

that is possible to change across decades, but you require real investment in education and training. that is what happened during that time as well. it was a whole high school movement to change the educational level of the entire population. tom: i love your chapter five in this report. i cannot say enough about this report. let's go to dr. john silvia on productivity, which is your chapter five. that fear ofld robots into your study of capital used, labor use, and total factor productivity? john: i start out with a comment you and i have talked about for a long time. it's education, especially in high school. make people feel comfortable with the automation and the robots. somebody has to program the robots. somebody has to design the robots. capture kids in high school so that they are comfortable with

the technology. tom: we're going to keep both guests with us. let me go to a quick data check. it is a trump speech data check. stronger dollar this morning. stay with us. it's great conversation on automation. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: stay with bloomberg this morning. let's look at the nation's productivity and this couldn't be for any other nation in the world. up we going to the 80's in the 90's.productivity up up up. this is the bicep he uses in middle relief pitching for the red sox. michael you see the chart and you have great citations the report. what is the prescription for the new administration to make us fear automation less? michael: again, we don't give advice directly. tom: i want you to give advice this morning to president trump. you are having sparkling water with the president. what is the tone? michael: any administration in

world needs to concentrate on productivity, whether it's the united states or china or europe. as all these populations age, lb the key to making sure the next generation is more prosperous than the current one. what we need to do is implement technology. we need to pair it with management innovation in order to drive productivity forward. first of all, if you look across the world, there are different levers to increase productivity, which are not global used. sometimes in some cases, some of our research on a country like mexico shows that some companies have implement it harder to be levers that the rest -- and limited productivity levers of the rest of the economy hasn't. we view automation as affecting knothole occupations but individual -- not whole application occupations but indl

occupations. francine: i'm looking at the u.k. productivity puzzle and we are spoken to the bank of england and researchers and they do not know why there is this productivity puzzle. it has become very difficult to fix. michael: as john knows well, there's perhaps a bit of a mystery as to the degree as why productivity growth has slowed so much. what we show is that there is continuing potential for using automation at least to increase productivity a great deal. their questions about measurement. we are not questioning measurement terms of what search. that is consumer surplus, not in the gdp numbers. tom: let's circle this back to the trump speech last night. one was immigration. part of this debate is population growth. we need more bodies to create gdp, right? john: absolute. he talkedriguing that about skills-based immigration

policy, which is a very old traditional policy. what kind of skills are we really looking at? picking up on michael's point, it seems that productivity gains are different and the application of technology is a different between different firms. you don't have an even productivity gain among different industries in the united states. tom: we see that at bloomberg. we see that with francine trying to get to an 80 hour work week. that's how we will fix it. we will continue this on radio with michael chui and john silvia. francine, thank you for the great french coverage today. 10177.the dxy at ♪

♪ jonathan: president trump pledges unity in his

address to congress. the focus turns to the fed march meeting, but the odds for a hike surging. is another election twist. the french republican candidate pledges to stay in the race as the probe into his finances deep in. welcome to our viewers worldwide. by jonathan ferro alongside david westin and alix steel. i have to say the news by the president of the new york fed. david: mr. dudley stole the show, but it was a different president trump. was the one his president was promising. four to fiveed times where he reached out to congress saying we could do this. totally different than in the past. jonathan: features of this morning a big. we are up 12 points. a rally in europe with the equity market up by one full percentage point