obama. in an emailed statement by the justice department, attorney general sessions said he was eking a "uniform transition inside the doj." mexico is performing a faster track for revising nafta than the u.s. has suggested. he hopes formal talks will begin midyear and wrap up by this ember. sanse u.s. insists imposing -- insists on imposing tariffs. the dakota access pipeline protesters are demonstrating in washington. a federal judge refused to halt construction. oil may start flowing through it next week. ae pipeline would pass under reservoir that provides water to native american reservations. of the, the impeachment

forident opens the door elections in 60 days. they favor a softer approach with north korean leader kim jong-il and -- kim jong-un. and the creation of a missile system that china opposes. powered by more than 2600 and analyst in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. julie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. joe: we 30 minutes close of trading in the u.s.. julie: gold on its longest losing streak and five months.

joseph colon the question is, what you miss-- joe: the question is, what'd you miss? julie: we break labor force participation and wage growth. we look at what to expect from the fed over the next year. and top republican senators suggest the august deadline for a tax plan may be. debate overow the repealing obamacare is putting constraints on the yes -- on addressing taxes. now let's look at where the major averages stand as we head towards the close. abigail doolittle is handing by. abigail: we are looking at modest gains for the major averages. in the dow, s&p 500, and nasdaq trading higher up more than .2%. a bit of a reversal. we have seen flip-flopping today. we had the averages higher, up .5%. averages werell

down. now climbing higher. heading into the close, we're looking at games. day.r a third 500.is the s&p if the s&p 500 does finish down on the week, it would be the first down week in seven. and what makes this stand out is that there are some technical analyst that are calling for a bit of a pullback. at had been very bullish and a price target for the s&p 500 of 2000. signalssays that the are that we could see a bit of a pullback. 2280 would be a 5% pullback. saysat asbury research that his work with high-yield

bonds, we are also looking at what he called an overdue correction. point that could be happening for stocks. and there is a point to be made. we have stocks down for the first time in seven. bonds today are higher for the first week. or for the first day in 10. a bit of a flip lot there. btv.a look at g #dtv -- we have a 10 year yield move up nine days in a row up until today. perhaps this is a little bit of an inflection point. we put this move up within the range. we see that while the 10 year yield has been hunting for a number of days in a row, the longest since when he 12, the 10 year yield is dylan this range. it especially looks relatively small. that may beuggests as the fed raises rates, bonds rally.

finally, oil is down for a second week in a row, down 8% on supply glut years. the question here is, will oil hold support? and we see over the last year, the 50 day moving average has acted as resist. oil is heading down. somethinge similar to -- the 200 day moving average. joe: what did you miss? inrything seems to be moving place for the federal reserve interest rate hike. but what is in store for the fomc? with us is a contributor to bloomberg view.

let's not even talk about next week because i don't think many people have much to say about it. what do you see after that? what does the next move look like? >> if they pull forward a rate hike to march, the case this year is three hikes with an option on four. it's probably what they are thinking. some have risks from their forecast. julie: we got a picture of what the jobs market looks like with today's report. i want to talk about in nation as well. we have seen oil come down a little bit and we have been seeing inflation expect haitians come down. -- expectations come down. for two-year, five year, and 10 year. we briefly went above five and 10 and now have limited below.

we have seen overall inflation expectations kind of stabilize. what do you think will happen in terms of inflation? at of think there is a huge amount of inflationary pressure. the fed has been pretty gradual on the expectation that they don't have to pullback -- full theyto aggressively -- don't have to pull back too aggressively. i would expect the expectations to mirror the reality of the situation going forward. joe: what about the flipside? one of the defining tories is the oil selloff. oil doesn't go to court measures but leads into various things in various ways. other commodities falling as well. copper with one of its worst weeks in a long time.

engaging with the world's industrial momentum. >> there are inflation expectations and inflation forecasts will fall over this year. i expect them to delay rate hikes. if they have the opportunity on of inflationary pressures, they want to ring these great -- rate hikes forward. they are starting to see price pressures and they may take a breather. julie: on one hand not be behind the curve and on the other hand, being aggressive. max there is a sweet spot.

you haven't seen inflation get ahead of them. you have seen some signs that some of the pressures they have seen recently are transitory. thatou see a labor market is doing well. certainly not the runaway kind of labor market that they would be much more concerned about. they are in a good spot to be a little preemptive. if it looks like things are going south on them, it could go the other way. you mentioned a labor market and we got a quite solid jobs report this morning. and this idea about the gap between soft data, the surveys, the consumer business surveys versus the hard data. the chart we have been tracking on bloomberg shows the soft data

surprises outstripping the hard data surprises. is there a difference between the two? could there be a situation which surveys and that good but the real data isn't is good? thisw data doesn't follow soft data. it got a little over its ended and look to see spending pickup to match that. , theecond part is yes labor report for this month really suggests that the economy is not really slipping away from us. if anything, it is firming up. that is consistent with a in general that looks at since the end of last year, maybe the fourth quarter, we are on a bit of a cyclical rebound.

>> the markets have largely been acting as though there aren't really any big risks on the horizon. the economic data seems to be backing that up. even though the market has sort of shrug off any kind of policy related risk, do you think there are some risks right now? are people being too sanguine about the outlook? >> at least the health care overhaul -- if that is any indication, it may not be a bad thing in this environment. the economy is in a pretty good spot. there are many ways to go wrong than right with policy. back half ofthe this year, we do have supply-side shocks. it negative supply-side shocks

from trade and immigration policy. maybe you also have the risk of faster than expected fiscal stimulus. certainly, those could change the picture in the inflation outlook. right now, it is too early to call on some of these issues. markets and the federal reserve are probably in a safe face. are they really going to materialize? >> something you have written about, this thing looming on the horizon is the idea of what the fed will do about the balance sheet. it is not something that will come up right away, but later in the year, getting oser where people might expect a decision to be made about the pace of the runoff. how do you think the fed is ultimately going to address this question? >> i think if we move forward, the fed will say, look. we want to put this on balance sheet reduction into autopilot. stop the reinvestment of principle.

and somewhere around the next 50 points,ints or 75 basis i think they will want to start that process. would like to put it on autopilot and forget about it. if they need to adjust the pace of tightening to account for the balance sheet run off, they will do that. but i think they just want this whole thing to go away at soon as they can possibly get it out of their hands. joe: great stuff, thank you very much tim dooley. we appreciate you coming on. julie: bloomberg television and radio will have's programming around the interest rate -- will have special programming around the interest rate hike. including former richmond said president our brought a, former fed vice chair alan blinder, and many more.

at 2:30 conferences p.m. coming up, gary cohen on today's jobs report and how he is configuring u.s. gdp productions -- projections. this is bloomberg. ♪

picture under the trump administration. they added over 200 jobs last last -- 200,000 jobs month. david westin asked how the government can keep up that current pace of new jobs. >> remember, in our first 50 the 50 dayay is

halftime. a seven weeks ago today was inauguration. had anst 50 days, we've enormous amount of ceo traffic into the white house. announcements from ceos whether it be the automobile manufacturers, intel. you have seen announcements about people holding manufacturing back to the united states. remember, those jobs are not in these numbers. those jobs will come in the future. they'll come 12 months from now. we think there is enormous demand for american workers built in the system. that is going to naturally grow demand for workers. it will be a norm is trickle-down. we are excited about the job prospects in america. you have a good part of your

team together. steve mnuchin at treasury and various people in place. putting together a budget, what sort of growth rejections are you building in? >> we are very optimistic on growth. we will set very realistic growth rejections. the priorck at all administrations and saw the gdp forecast and none of them got close to meeting their projection. we are putting out a gdp projection that we think we can make and beat. we would rather underpromise and overdeliver then overpromise. in seeing the activity that we have seen from all the ceos that we engage in. >> you want to underpromise and overdeliver when it comes to

budgets. up to 2.3 or 2.4. they are better than that. >> we are already in the middle of this year. or 2.4 projection much higher, it will be tough to move that dramatically higher. like to outperform the 2.3 or 2.4 prediction. orwe grow over the next year two, we think we can substantially improve on that. we continue to get the jobs created. going forward, they are relatively in-line. they are cautiously optimistic and we think we can perform that. we will continue to see growth. this is somewhat started to bake in where some of the projections

are. that was national economic council gary cohn from earlier today. time for the bloomberg business flash, some of the biggest stories in the news right now. baidu's billionaire ceo addressing concerns about a potential trade war between the world's two biggest economies. robin lee spoke to bloomberg tv today. >> a think a trade war is bad for everyone. it is clear. are just politicians using that as a bargaining chip to try to get more. speaking of baidu, we have research facilities in the u.s.. and we don't have a lot of revenue. the research team in silicon valley is pivotal to the company's ai goals. president trump is "anti-immigrant" and could steer talent to china.

and a win for steve wynn. says the increase is partly tied to the fact that gambling revenue rebounded in china. picked as finance chairman for the republican national committee. one of the advisors on that land blockbuster ipo of -- that is according to people familiar with the matter. ever court was founded by roger altman. core will generate millions in fees and commissions. and that's your bloomberg business flash. julie: up next, the real estate index has been sliding since the end of february. we look at how etf's are responding. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

julie: i'm julie hyman. what did you miss? declines, the spider bond etf has dropped along with the j and k junk. that is the ticker. it had its worst week in 13 months. the white line here. a lot of outflows are the red lines. the steep ours downward. it likely has at least something to do with the poor week for oil. the biggest weekly decline since november. oil is one of the largest in the bond markets. we have seen a recovery in the high-yield bond market because oil has been recovering.

energy companies have been recovering. but we have seen a reversal of that. +++ indicator. it is unclear now if it is more substantial. joe: people forgot, there was so much concern. it was wrapped up in the oil dump, obviously. this is sort of a nexus of a lot of anxiety. thanks to the oil rebound. going into last year, about a year ago, this was the thing to watch. i am looking at another etf not doing very good. the ishares rate -- reit etf. it had negative performance. the one-day price change. here is nine straight days of decline. the lowest in many years. there was a lot of hype last

year. everyone was so crazy about dividends and all the bond these. excitement that they would get their own category in the s&p. bigle thought it would be a boon for them. they haven't been doing that well. concern, they are on quite a losing streak and starting to catch a lot of people's attention. those bond proxies are not too popular right now. julie: and you see utilities also somewhat -- financials doing well. sort of the classic trade on these bond proxies. that's right. we have the market close coming up next. here are the major averages. we have got a little bit of a rally to end the week. we are setting up for a down week in stock there. dow, s&p, and nasdaq have a small rally in the wake of the jobs report. this is bloomberg.

>> we are moments away from the

closing bell. what did you miss? thiss closing higher friday. the fed is expected to raise rates next week. i am julie hyman in for scarlet fu. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. if you are tuning in on twitter, we want to welcome you to our closing bell coverage, every weekday from 4:00-5:00 eastern. >> we begin with our markets update and what was an to end what was not a very strong week here. the s&p 500 looking like it's first down week and seven. the reaction today did not look too bad for that jobs report. i also want to look at the group that was held up as the out performer in the wake of the election. that outperformance has struck -- truck here. russella look at their 2000 relative to the s&p 500.

some big gains in the russell in the week following the election -- in the week following the election. it peaked in early december. since then, it has been stabilized, even going down. this week, it pulled back more than 2%. it's decline this week was really outside, relative to its large peers. joe: let's take a look at the government bond markets, lots -- lots of action there. yields coming in a little bit today. we got that strong jobs report at 8:30. we will talk more about that. there was much enthusiasm for this. adp report from the fed stuff last week, we got a bit of a breather. also with labor force participation, rates are taking higher. maybe some opted -- optimism, breathing room in the labor market. a pullback in rates. german five-year yield taking higher, interesting moves in the wake of the ecb decision yesterday.

more optimism about the economy, politics. perhaps some easing up the bit of german debt. it let's take a quick look at ten-day -- 10 year intraday yields. you can see the action -- a lot of back and forth in the immediate wake, everyone's scrambling to interpret and trade on it. i want to take a look at currencies, first of all, what happened with the euro. he saw the euro gain on the day in the wake of the jobs report, also in the wake of a report by bloomberg that the ucb discussed whether it could raise rates before ending qe, a topic draghi did not discuss on thursday. that is something of reporting staff and the euro -- rising to its highest in a month in the wake of his commentary about risks being balanced. that is the dollar following

verses the brazilian riel, the reality and on the day. brazil inflation surprising analysts by slowing in february. traders are increasing waiters at the central bank will have for to accelerate its monetary easing. interesting action there as well. the dollar on a one-week basis, nothing much movement overall. gain0.1 for 5 -- 0.15% does not show you the round-trip of the dollar made. report,er the jobs interesting, racing a lot of the gains. let's look at commodities, one of the big stories. not a good week for commodities. nickel, often seen as an industrial metal, down 2.5%. gold not doing anything. oil breaking out of a range it has been in. we have a one-month chart of oil that tells the story here. boom, you see this week, it had been hanging out, 53, 52. bital of the week it fell out of bed, concerns about rising

stockpiles, production in the u.s.. you see it dropping in the last few days, down 10% for the month. julie: didn't help that the shell oil billionaire said, because the shell oil, do not start ramping up production to quickly once again. those are today's market minutes. thes take a deep dive into bloomberg, you can find the following charts using the function of the bottom of the screen. my chart has to do with what happened in the payrolls data -- data, specifically with making stuff. this hands on strength we saw. not only looking at manufacturing, but adding in construction and mining. we saw the biggest gain in jobs on that measure in 17 years. this is a reflection of a couple different things. we have seen a little bit of a comeback in manufacturing, that is and the trend. construction was that was partially seasonal that you saw warmer than usual weather, you suck construction program -- projects started earlier. might not be sustained

for that reason, because we pulled forward, then you might be taking away from major months. this is certainly something the ministration but see as a victory. joe: perfect that these hardheaded industries had their best months in seven. it is nothing to do with current policy or market conditions. nonetheless it is kind of funny that the first month of the trump administration is the best month for these kind of jobs in 17 years. julie: even the promised projects in the u.s., they are not effectively hiring yet. joe: absolutely. i want to go back to commodities quickly. this was the worst week, the one we change for the bloomberg commodity index. each one of these bars is the weekly action. this is one of the worst weeks for commodities. the bloomberg commodity index down by over 3%. obviously oil plunged down 10%, in addition to that there was a

bad week for copper. a lot of soft commodities, milk did badly. ugly for the commodity front. julie: it is interesting what is been going on, this shift here. joe: "what'd you miss?" employers added 235,000 workers to their payroll last month. it is a game that clears the path for the fed to raise rates when it meets next week. wages, a drag on the labor market, saw an uptick. here to break it down as michelle myers, the managing director and head of u.s. economics for income america, merrill lynch. she joins us from her firm's headquarters in new york. michelle, pretty strong number. do we have room to run with the labor market still? >> it seems that way. we continue to exceed expectations. if you think about what the break is for jobs right now given population, it is about 120-150,000 if you make nice

assumptions for labor force going forward. we are running well in excess of that. today's report was strong for the labor market. the headline number was positive, the number of household jobs created brought down the unemployment rate, that was also quite constructive. do we have room to go? it seems we probably do. we continue to see further gains in labor supply, and that is being met by labor demands. michelle, labor force participation rates, taking up a little bit. it is interesting, we have the fed on the one hand telling us we are nearing full employment, yet we have that labor force participation rate which has been stubbornly low for quite some time. so, who are these people, where are they coming from, what is getting them back into the workforce? [laughter] michelle: there's a few ways to answer that. one is to look at participation by age.

you want to focus in terms of the ability to seek cyclical games is the prime working age, 25-54 years old. we have seen a nice move in the past year and a half amongst that age group. upsetting to demographic, on aggregate, we have an 18 population. why is this starting to come back and? it could be because wages are picking up. there is the belief that you will gain more income by coming back into the labor force. perhaps it is a function of the fact that people are more confident, they feel as though the environment will be more favorable in general for the labor market and for taxes. that it could help -- beckett help spur people's interest. joe: we have a chart here, primates labor force participation rate. i want to bring this up because you mention it, it is rising to its highest levels since 20 will not -- 2011. it is at 81.7%, going back to

2007 it was around 83%. could we get back to those old levels? do we have a more meaningful amount of comeback on this? michelle: i do not think we can discount the possibility of that. the majority of people never thought we were going to see this cyclical gain so late in the business cycle. so i think we are supposed to assume there is a possibility that we can have further cyclical lifts of the labor force amongst this age group. what that means is that you have a longer business cycle. if people are able to come back, be productive, gain income, spend more, it will lighten the economy. we have a chart looking at the employment cost index, average hourly earnings in the atlanta fed -- atlanta fed wage growth tracker. we have seen a gradual trending up. are you satisfied with the wage growth that we have been getting?

on a month over month basis it is these big -- baby steps. michelle: yeah. that's a good description. dramatically's, in terms of wage growth. but, we are seeing progress, persistent progress. we are not running 2.8% year-over-year for average hourly earnings. we're above that. there is persistently a gap between the two. the trend is what is important, the trend is higher for wages. we have seen tightening in the labor market, and we are seeing the mechanisms we put in place where workers can get bargaining power for higher wages. joe: we have the fed decision next week, there does not seem to be debate that there would be a hike. assuming you share that view, what will be the key thing that you are going to be watching for? the consensus is that

there will be a hike as you -- today'sthe fed jobs report is consistent with the idea of the fed hiking. be a non-event, i think the focus will be on the summary of economic protections, , whetherrly the dos not the dot kinship tire. the s&p has three hikes for the .ext three years it is possible that moves up. there is a high hurdle for it to move up this year because you officials to move from three to four. from 2018 it is a possibility. great stuff. michelle meyer, managing director of bank of america-merrill lynch rated bitcoin, the on fcc has rejected a proposal to create an etf for bitcoin. we can see the after-hours move , down 13% crashing

right now. this is just the intraday chart, wild. around 8:15 this morning there was a spike, over $1300. now, just over $1000. the optimism was because bitcoin is hard to get into. and etf would create a vehicle, everyone saw what happened with the gld etf, buying gold. that was in the early 2000's. some disappointment here. but, a huge reaction to that going on this news from the fcc. julie: this does not mean there will not be a bitcoin -- we do not know exactly the specifics of why this was rejected. it was proposed by the winkle boss twins -- winkle boss twins. there is an advantage in the etf world. about thats talked with this bitcoin etf. you want to be first to market

with the stuffed so you are the name products whatever it is. this is a big blow for their particular product, but maybe we will get another bitcoin. joe: there are other endeavors out there, people are trying to get bitcoin etf's to market. they have different structures in terms of how they will secure it. bitcoin exchanges are always getting hacked. .ulie: there's also the cost there's the cost of mining it, the labor, etc. joe: just like with gld, gold was a hard asset class for people to invest in prior to their being an etf. it was not on any sort of standard platform. the bulls were excited that an etf would make it easier. julie: did not turn out that way. joe: not today. [laughter] sayinggop senators are the august deadline for trump's tax overhaul could be unrealistic. we will you why. this is bloomberg. ♪

for first word news. president trump has congratulated house republicans for what he calls, their diligent work to repeal obamacare. prior to a white house meeting with the gop leadership, the president said, the repeal and replacement of the affordable care law is in sight. is the time we will get it done. we are working together, we have great results. we have tremendous spirit. i think it is something that is just going to happen very shortly. ways andh the house means committee and the energy and commerce committee cleared the legislation this week. president trump made his choice to hand the fda. scott gottlieb, the former deputy commissioner of the fda, is the president's leading choice.

gottlieb served in several senior positions at the fda during the george w. bush administration, and has spoken extensively about how to lower the cost of prescription drugs by modernizing the agency's approval process and speeding cheaper, generic drug competitors to market. nancyminority leader pelosi is suggesting, the fbi director should come forward to dispute the president's claim that he was wiretapped by former president obama. speaking at a christian science breakfast today, nancy pelosi said, she does not believe the claims are true and that james comey should, set the record straight. president trump made the claim over twitter. director comey has privately urged the justice department to dispute the claim, but has not come forward to do so himself. the european union is reminding british prime minister theresa may just how tough the upcoming brexit negotiations will be. a series of interviews and leaked documents show that eu

leaders are vowing that the u.k. will lose more than it gains by leaving. will notays, the eu great to many concessions, even traditional ally ireland once the u.k. to pay and a 60. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 country. i am mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. julie: "what'd you miss?" gop senators are signaling, they may not be a to complete a tax overhaul before august. leaders say they are committed to meeting that deadline. what is the holdup? the time it is taking to repeal the repeat -- senator ted cruz isn't -- adamant that the repeal and replace bill is more important. the road ahead for health care legislation is anything but smooth. here with more details is bloomberg's sahil kapur from

washington. what is ted cruz proposing here, why is it so revolutionary? : but senator cruz is proposing is to set aside the rulings of the senate parliamentarian, on whether certain provisions in health care legislation are relevant to this reconciliation process they are using to avoid the 60 vote threshold. in the senate, and minority of 41 senators can filibuster any legislation. to -- democrats have 48 votes. the only way publicans can repeal obamacare in any significant way is to do it through reconciliation. the rules are that only in legislation that directly affect spending and taxes can be in that bill. the more little arcane you get into it, but the bottom line is, republicans want -- very constructive by this rule. ted cruz wants to set it aside and said a bold new president -- precedents. essentially, ted cruz is

trying to change the rules to allow for a more expensive obamacare repeal. here's the real question. does this increase or decrease the chance of anything getting past? [laughter] sahil: i think right now it decreases the chance of something getting passed, intensifies the divisions within the republican party. they are already divided pretty substantially over the house legislation that has cleared two critical committees and is headed toward the budget committee for finalizing next week. ted cruz is essentially saying, start over. he is telling leaders, start over with a much more far-reaching bill that does much more to unwind obamacare and includes more of these provisions, such as selling insurance across state lines which is regulatory, they cannot get into a repeal-reconciliation bill. the big -- debate brexit more difficult for speaker brian and leaders to get the bill through. julie: is there any traction

with this plan? sahil: a little bit. he has gotten some allies in the house freedom caucus group of about 30 or so of the most conservative house republicans, who have no desire to abide by senate rules and want to do whatever they can to unwind the affordable care act. in the senate it is much less clear. he does not seen to have -- he has allies on his page like senator rand paul and mike lee, but nobody has quite endorsed the strategy. going out on a limb trying to move policy by setting ablaze traditions. for a lot of investors they are like, obamacare repeal, maybe they are most interest -- just interested in it so the administration can get all the stuff they want done. what is the timetable now for tax reform? sahil: joe, so, everyone has said including speaker ryan, president trump, they want to

get this done by august. part of the 200 day agenda rind kept talking about. what is happening now is reality is setting in. health care is more difficult than republicans that help -- republicans had hoped. it seems like a fantasy now to health health care -- to have health care repeal on president trump's desk on day one. health care can drag on for weeks, months. this is very complicated, they are facing more divisions than they thought. house republicans have decided to do health care before tax procedural andre budgetary reasons. they cannot look to taxes until they get health care done. senators in particular are warning that this is not going -- this may not happen by august, including senator mcconnell, senator hatch, finance committee chairman. the senate is known as a place that moves slowly, deliberately. during the campaign,

president trump painted himself as a negotiator. he was going to negotiate new trade deals, deals internationally. hasn't shown any willingness to help negotiating with in congress. increasing signs of that/ is he meeting with these folks, trying to get it done? bit.: a little today, he had a meeting with vice president pence and house republican chairman of the key committees that oversee health care. there is a little bit going on. but the white house is doing is withrying to approach this a have a hand, which is what president bill clinton did in president obama was hands-off and that helped them. it remains to be seen. think the white house will be critical in terms of whether this gets passed or it fails. julie: thank you sahil kapur. joe: coming up, the dutch head to the polls on wednesday to vote in the new legislature. the turkey can't miss.

this is bloomberg. ♪

julie: "what'd you miss?" find all of the following charts using the function at the bottom of your screen. what's a good the house -- household wealth to income ratio. i thought this was good to talk about today. both growth has outpaced it -- wage growth, it is at six and a half, highest on record. when you talk about income, that is obvious. when you talk about wealth, it is property value with stock value. not necessarily surprising that we are seeing that ratio at such a high level. incidentally, it last reached this kind of a level just before the recession. prior to that it was during the housing bubble in the early

2000's. we have seen this happen before, does not mean we'll see -- we will see a pullback again. it is interesting. joe: it is interesting, the degree to which this recovery boosted assets more than income. i am looking at eu go, i am excited about next week. dutch election. i'm here with the headlines, stuff about the eu, including charts. this chart is it -- the projected number of parties in the election. the red line up top is kurt filters his party, the freedom party, the anti-immigration populist party. it has been flipping lately. for the first time it is projected to come in second place. there's some believe that the populist sentiment in europe is cresting, probably a good move for equity markets. julie: we will have to look at the french version of the chart. up next week or from republican governor rick snyder, why he favors president trump's plan for infrastructure. this is bloomberg.

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for first worde news. attorney general jeff sessions today asked 46 u.s. attorneys to resign. they were the last remaining attorneys appointed by president obama. in an emailed statement released by the just and -- justice department, session said he was a quote, uniform transition inside the doj. president trump spoke to the palestinian president today. a spokesman, president trump stressed quote, his commitment to a peace process between israelis and palestinians. the spokesman said, president abbas is committed to peace, as

a strategic option for the establishment of a palestinian state alongside israel. president vladimir putin praised the close ties between the russian and turkish militaries today, as he hosted turkish president region earn one for discussions about syria. relations between the countries were strained after turkey shuts down a russian military jet in 20 15. both nations have since color brokered a cease-fire that helps reduce the scale of fighting in syria. they cosponsored two grams of talks this year between the governmentident's and the opposition. a third round is set for next week. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. julie: let's look at today's market. we saw a modest rally for all three major averages, utilities

leading. we so that dip in rates, telecom is doing well also. on the flip side, real estate not benefiting from the pullback in rates. joe: no. the s&p, having its first down we can seven. joe: some exciting after-hours action in bitcoin. fcc projecting a proposal to create a bitcoin etf. go into my terminal, you can see the 11% reaction now in bitcoin. it has been over $1300. earlier, now 1070. the fcc saying, in order to have an exchange traded products on a commodity, the commodity has to trade on a regulated exchange. because bitcoin does not trade on any regulated exchange, you cannot have a regulated etf.

11% currently plunged. julie: when you have something like this, what is the volume like an something like bitcoin? joe: there are volume charts. we should try to find some. julie: i'm just curious. "what'd you miss?" trump metpresident with leaders to discuss his $1 trillion infrastructure plan. he wants states to be ready to start projects within 90 days of receiving funding. republican governor rick snyder of michigan spoke about the practicality of that earlier today. 90 days is aer: very short time on capital projects. what i would say is, michigan what about that process a few years ago and made a decision. we need to invest more in our infrastructure. we started with roads and bridges in terms of additional gas tax registration fees, which are not easy questions. to update our infrastructure, we need more for water and sewer trade with the situation in flint, singh:

fraser. we went through a big electrical outage because of high winds. it is smart to invest in infrastructure because it can have a good long-term or term. nationally we have been busting for some time. julie: you mentioned flint, what is the long-term plan? the most recent news is that lead levels have fallen, but are still above the level that you yourself have proposed as being the new safety level. what is a long-term plan their? governor snyder: the levels are below the new proposed standard. with more recent test results. we are showing strong results in flint. a lot of progress on the waterfront. we are continuing the economic comeback. we have enhanced nutritional, health services. flynt is recovering, but it is not something that will happen overnight. actions,ing short-term intermediate actions, long-term actions, and partnership with the city and federal government. the good part is, we have had over a hundred new jobs created

in flint over the last couple years! 800 is a lot of jobs. we have the opportunity to see more. let's make flint a better place than it was before the crisis even happened. julie: that was governor rick snyder of michigan, he spoke to me earlier. joe: the labor market math on president trump's $1 trillion and for such a plan does not add up, so says our next guest, who says trump would need 570,000 additional -- construction workers. joining us from atlanta is bloomberg view columnist, conor sent. great to have you back. and the structure spending is one of the least competent -- controversial ideas out there. everyone seems to like the idea of it, even people who are hawks on spending. it never seems to happen, and people fantasize about it. he wrote an interesting column saying, the math doesn't work to get that kind of money out the door and hire people. what is the basic idea? >> infrastructure spending is

about one quarter of all infrastructure -- spending. if you look at instruction -- construction employment, a good year we saw, 2013, 2015, it is between 200-300,000 construction jobs. in 2006 we have 500,000 for a short. of time. just for the infrastructure piece, would be a historic year that we have not seen since world war ii. this is again, when housing is booming and oil is coming back. on the foot side, we are told there are all these people who want jobs. we are told the labor participation rate is still pretty sluggish levels. whothere people out there are not working, other people out there another jobs who would migrate for example? conor: i think so. if you look at the job data this morning, we had 58,000 construction jobs in february. well good weather is probably a function of that, we have seen

strong growth. it will take time to get that level of labor into the market, not to be 6-12 months. joe: there is another model with infrastructure. bloomberg's look how abrupt and article about lessons justin trudeau can teach donald trump about how hard it is to get infrastructure spending. plan,ths after trudeau's just eight out of 1274 projects have been completed. at this pace it would be 50 years before they are all done. you know a lot about city planning and what goes into that. how hard is it to actually identify a project, then get it going? conor: i'm on a city's planning commission so i am familiar with the pain points involved in the process in terms of timelines. there is no great way for timelines, there are so many different constituencies involved, voices that have to be heard. if you do it quick you can be reckless and do things that you

regret down the road. like governor snyder in michigan said, 90 days is a very aggressive timeline. that is probably unrealistic for most projects. in the reasonable conclusion be that $1 trillion is too ambitious, and eventually something more realistic will be hammered out? conor: you could get there over some. of time, you want to get that one hundred billion dollars a year for 10 years. the rental. 10-15-20 billion dollars for growth. on the backend of that you have a big number. the first couple of years could be skinny. president trump wants to see an immediate impact, which is harder. joe: we talk about infrastructure, we talk about the standard bridges, roads, whatever. from your perspective, where do you think cities and states will get the most bang for their buck , not just in terms of getting the money into the economy, but in terms of a long-term enhancement to the economic capabilities of that reach?

conor: i'm not an expert, but the experts i have read say it's more about maintaining what you have, rather than building super trains in california. how this will go to ribbon cuttings and big, sexy events like that, the nuts and bolts avenue --of daily maintenance are not as exciting. julie: if you look at recent examples of these big projects, the big dig in boston, some infrastructure that is try to be completed in seattle, you have not seen much success. , not onlyquestion is do you have the workers, but her that as projects that could even be done? conor: probably. if you look at the long-term growth and public construction spending, if you take a trendline to 2000-2008, we are about hundred billion dollars a year low that line. that suggests getting back to trends would not be crazy. that $1ld get you to trillion number. after the construction and

construction labor force and the past 5-10 years, it will take a while to ramp up. joe: quickly from a market perspective. if your math is what you are saying, which sounds reasonable, that these huge numbers are not realistic, do you think the market grasps that? said,t november 8, trump infrastructure, it is been rallying up since then. do you think there is more fantasy and belief of what can be done, rather than the political resources we have? conor: markets are struggling with how much of the post-election rally is a confirmation of the reflation trade we had artie seen started before the election, and how much was the trump animal spirit. if you look at what happened to some of the material stocks, and oil right below 50, you can argue that maybe the reflation trade is more about that stuff and perhaps on the of the structure side, the markets are more uncertain. sen.conor

three must see charts you do not want to miss. this is bloomberg. ♪

joe: "what'd you miss?" the last month the u.s. economy added $230,000, the unemployment rate fell. we have three jobs charts you probably have not seen because no one to ask into the jobs data like matt basel are of bloomberg news, economic reporter. no pressure, but no one better has done this. what is this first one, it is called, millennial's lead the way. what is going on? talk about prime age

participation in employment. i like to break it down into the 10 year age markets that comprise the 25-54 prime age group. can see,ok, you especially the 25-34 euros, millennial's, we are finally the kinds ofto numbers and people in the sage group working that we saw in previous expansion. that is just now starting to happen. you can see a few months ago, we had more of these people in these age groups not working. to, even though the unemployment rate was low, this is the flip side and showed that while participation was still keeping people out of the workforce. we are starting to see that finally turn around. that is a good sign. julie: you can also break it down by wage bucket. your next chart does. it looks at the high wage service producing industries in red, year-over-year percentage change. in blue, the low-wage service

providing industry, year-over-year percentage change. we have the lower pay jobs starting to slow down, the growth of them that is, while the others start to take up. matt: we are looking at who is getting the jobs, and what types of jobs are they getting? services asabout 80% of the u.s. economy. the big story today was that construction and manufacturing were making a comeback. below the headlines, you see here, if you break those service jobs into high-paying and low-paying jobs -- high-paying you have lawyers and accountants , that is the red line. that is catching up to and most eclipses growth in this low-paying jobs that have driven the expansion, like restaurant workers and retail workers. that sort of thing. joe: going back to past expansions, will one typically lead the other in terms of growth? does it say anything about the cycle? matt: it definitely appears that

in the last two cycles, the first half of the cycle we had those low-wage jobs outpacing growth in the high which jobs. then at the end of the cycle, you see those high which job growth's start to pick up and eclipse it. it is not clear what this means for this cycle necessarily, because no two cycles ever repeat exactly. but it looks like this could maybe be a sign that we are advancing into a more mature business cycle. --t is one reason why rage wage growth rises through the cycle come because the competition boosts overall. joe: here's a chart you brought us. i do not think i've ever seen this, period. this is a true novelty. it is called, permanent job losers, the year-over-year change. what are permanent job losers and what is the chart site? matt: every month we look at the number of unemployed people.

they ask every unemployed person, why are you unemployed? maybe you had temporary work in that finished, or you quit your job and now you were unemployed. then there are the people, and this is one of the biggest categories, that lost their job is a permanent loss of this job, right? this chart shows the year-over-year change in that number of people. basis, inar-over-year the last two months for the first time in this expansion -- in the previous two cycles that it is alsocession, fair to point out that in the late 90's we had a. of people wasp flat on a year-over-year basis for a long time, that shows that maybe the unemployment rate is flattening out. hopefully it does not rise, but unless we see another big leg down at discharge, we might not get much further. joe: a bit of a red flag but not too big. matt: exactly. julie: interesting that two of

these three charts show that there are some pressure points, weaker points within this particular job to port, cycle. matt: that's also one of the fun parts about jobs friday for us. and every report, there's so much data, you can always find good points if you like, some you don't like. julie: they couldn't miss you we -- we have you here. joe: thank you very much. lynch, head ofll global commodities research, francisco blanche, talks about what triggers this week's selloff in oil, and what he thinks could be the next big thing to watch. this is bloomberg. ♪

joe: "what'd you miss?"

oil down again on concerns of supply. we asked the head of merrill lynch global commodities research, francisco wrench for triggers. may havek the selloff been partly triggered by high inventory levels in the u.s. report on wednesday. we also probably seen the liquidation of speculative length in the markets. think the saudi have guided the market this week and some comments made by the saudi energy minister. all of that has put pressure on the market, but in reality, we -- balancesounces are tightening globally. he was inventories are high and we remain constructive heading into the summer months. julie: francisco, we have not seen oil come back at a rate that was post-opec cuts gains that we had seen. do you see any sort of reactive miss perhaps, only part of opec,

to the action that we have been seeing? do we see opec extending the cuts? francisco: i think opec is likely to extend. we think they will extend them. importantly, compliance cannot be as high as it was in the first couple months of the year. what is key to understand, the back end of the oil curve, which -- fallen now for six months the benchmark many shall players use for hedging purposes has not come down for six months. trade costs have been going up. that's i think is basically all pointing to a slowing show oil supply recovery in the months ahead. and that is exactly what needs to happen. shell is probably recovered faster than many others. prices of that the lower to slowbe

up the rate of growth. i've got a charge that a striking u.s. oil rigs. this is interesting because while the price of oil has been volatile over the last six months, oil -- ultimately it is near where it was in june. what it's changed traumatically is the number of those recounts. we keep climbing, the highest more than a year -- in more than a year. at one point will that lead in, or is it already what we're seeing as a price corrector? francisco: i think that's part of the reason prices are coming down. if you look at the expectations , with reportedy activity itself, it has been happening not just in the premium basis where the breakevens are typically lower around the barrel level. we have also seen growing activity picking up in other parts of the u.s.. the key to watch is the export picture in america.

we have seen exports of oil, crude oil, petroleum picking up in the last few weeks. that will continue to ramp up sharply as other regional markets in asia and europe start to balance out in our view. was merrill lynch, head of global commodities research, francisco blanche earlier today. julie: 10 for the bloomberg business flash, look at the visit -- biggest business stories. the securities and exchange commitment -- committee has rejected a bid by the wink of us twins to watch a bitcoin etf. the decision today cap's four-year quest by the brothers to lift the bitcoin product back in 2013. bitcoin prices hit a record high earlier today in anticipation of a green light from the fcc that would have offered investors easier access to that unregulated currency. caterpillar strongly denies breaking any federal tax laws -- facilities its

were raided by federal agencies. the reasons behind the rain -- rate were unclear, but caterpillar informed the fcc it was notified by the irs that it oh $2 billion in additional taxes, linked to profits from the smith unit. no charges have been filed. caterpillar says it is cooperating with investigators. haser's con skull island, racked up close to $250 million in production costs and marketing expenses. based on estimates for similar movies, the monster production requires at least $500 million in global sales to break even. the new conley hits theaters this weekend, and a strong international showing is crucial . domestically and faces stiff competition from fox's logan, and disney's, beauty and the beast, which opens on march 17. that is your business flash update. i will not be contributed to that this weekend. joe: coming up, what you need to know to gear up for next week. this is bloomberg. ♪

julie: "what'd you miss?"

they rally for u.s. stocks. it is the first down week for stocks in seven. the russell 2000 was down 2% on the week. do not miss this. the federal reserve announces its rate decision on wednesday. you can turn in to bloomberg tv 5:00pmpm eastern time, london time. suspense about the dutch elections on wednesday. will look life reports from amsterdam. we will see how kurt builders and his freedom party does. julie: the bank of england and japan announce whether they will change interest rates on thursday. do not forget daylig

>> you are watching "bloomberg technology." jeff sessions today asked 46 u.s. attorneys to resign. they were the last remaining attorneys appointed by president

obama. in a numeral statement released by the department of justice, sessions said he would see a uniform transition and the agency. the white house says president trump was not aware former national security is a tackle flynn would have to register of -- as a foreign agent for his lobbying work. the trump team was aware of the situation involving the president's top pick for a national security post. president trump is pushing the embattled gop health care plan in his weekly address. he also wants every american to know that action on the health care law is an urgent necessity. medical groups have criticized the plan and many conservatives see it as obamacare light. they pelosi is suggesting fbi director dispute president trump's claim that he was wiretapped by president obama. she says she does not believe the cla