that meeting has been pushed back to friday. her chief spokesman told reporters that the german government believes that >> they would discuss vocational training. iraqi forces have mobilized the next offensive state fighters as fighting remains on hold today because of bad weather. iraq's federal police is believed to be in charge, confirming most of the area has been emptied of civilians. the battle launched two years ago. neighborhoods held by the extremists are now completely surrounded. egypt's state news agency says a cairo prosecutor has ordered theous ter of mubarak and six

years of legal proceedings. the 88-year-old was acquitted by the top appeals court earlier this month on charges that he ordered the killing of protestors during the uprising that ended his rule. new york city public school students will have the day off tomorrow. classes have been canceled as the northeast braces for the late winter blizzard. the storm could drop up to 20 inches of snow. a storm watch extends all the way up to new england and the snow is expected to start falling late tonight. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2,600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

carlett scarlett scarlett: congressional budget to release pected the price for the new health care. nd intel's bold plans on self-driving car technology. joe: let's look at where the major averages stand. >> not a lot happening.

nasdaq the dow, s&p and all -- [no audio] >> big storm of events this week including the fed and central bank meetings, the dutch election, the possibility of the start of the brexit and notable earnings including or call. lots of volatility. but very, very tight range basically less than six-point trading range, the tightest since december 23 of last year. not a lot happening. investors are in wait and see mode. we have some movers. the two top on percentage ainers for the s&p 500 include wynn resorts. morgan stanley came out with

bullish comments saying the stock could double. as to the laggers, we are looking at frontier communications. no real news out today that our team is aware of, but they put up disappointing results, so this could be the continuation of that bearish trading actionment. as for the holding pattern, we look at 6739 this is out of the election and why we are looking the s&p 500, in yellow, the 10-year yield and in blue the bloomberg dollar index. stocks, commodities and the dollar rallied out of the election. bonds sold off and we have this big holding pattern. even if stocks have gone to all-time highs. what is worth noting in orange, we have the bloomberg commodity

iran decks starting to dip down and they are questioning whether this is a silo and starting to trade-off. could this be early for stocks and maybe catch up to the all-time highs. all the events we have happening this week will probably influence what happens here with this. joe: president trump just wrapping up a meeting with their cabinet and bracing for the c.b.o. scorecard on the revised health care bill. and the northeast is expecting to get blasted with 18 inches of snow. we are joined by bloomberg's chief correspondent. c.b.o., why is this a bill deal? >> we are expecting any time within the next hour. the nonpartisan budget office is going to be scoring house

speaker's health care bill how much money it will cost. there are procedures here. if they come back with a score that said this is going to cost money and as a result, republicans in the senate cannot avert the filibuster. senators paul, lee and cruz matters any loss of republican support in the senate really does block this bill from moving forward. the administration is going on full court press here. they are trying to hammer this home, trying to get the conservative base, which is not with them. spoke with some, from the house freedom caucus who are against this. and president trump said the party is unifying. he is scheduled to be in nashville, tennessee to firm up support and tout this plan. i have to be honest in addition to the number of how much money this is going to cost, the other

number that could be included is how many folks could lose coverage. moderates don't want to deal with that number either. scarlett: to what extent are republican senators withholding their support as they wait for the c.b.o. once the c.b.o. report comes out, they will be able to lend their endorsement. >> this is the first policy fight that this administration is having to referee within the republican party. if president trump is not able to get health care reform passed like the other legislative items like tax reform and hose of other issues like financial policy or environmental protection regulations, you can only do so much with executive orders. this matters, because this was a campaign promise that president trump campaigned on. high premiums did propel him over the edge in wisconsin and

michigan. but when you have this much outspoken criticism within his own party, this is something he has to firm up. and this c.b.o. report could be damning and they are already trying to criticize the c.b.o. which is a nonpartisan arm and that is risky and a bit unusual, too. joe: when we get the jobs report or g.d.p. and economists' estimate, is there a whisper number that people are throwing out there as what they see the estimate coming in? >> i spoke with one senior aid on friday last week who told me it's really bad. so, i think is why conservatives are sort of operating with. however, we live in an era here in washington where e from economists are being criticized.

when you play this forward a bit, a major snowstorm is about to hit and later this week, we are anticipating a large portion of president trump's budget and they are trying to force this thing through. so much division within the republican party. scarlett: i'm glad you mentioned it a snowstorm because the weather prompted the white house to reschedule their meeting with angela merkel and has now been moved to friday. give us a sense of what we might expect on friday. >> they have had quite a remarkable relationship to say the least. they are going to talk about two things, first and foremost, trade a the economy and how can the two countries get along on that and talk about foreign policy and talk about immigration. you could not have two more of a stark contrast in terms of the western civilization in terms of immigration policy particularly when it comes to the middle

east. they have taken two different approaches on that issue and i would anticipate that on friday when this meeting does finally happen again, as you mentioned, is delayed because of the weather, immigration and economics is going to be driving the agenda. scarlett: thanks you so much. we have some breaking news from citrus systems and said to be working with goldman sachs in a possible sale process. they are working with advisers to look for potential suitors and $2.4 billion cloud services' company and citrus has hired goldman sachs. the move insight trust shares currently up 9%. there is a pop on the headline that it is working with goldman. ming up, a c.e.o. is talking about his deal to purchase

mobile eye. this is bloomberg. ♪

billion: there is a $15 deal. and signals further push. and data that it generates. bloomberg editor spoke with intel to ask, why do this deal now? >> we think combining mobile eye allows us to have a singular platform for our customers and if you look at where it is going

and the models are going to start to hit the road. >> what has been the approach. how might that change and mobilize? we are in a large number of autonomous vehicles. but this brings the best of mobile ends of the computing spectrum for driving. the car will have two brains. will take the radar and the cameras and build a view of the world and another view that intel is going to take that information and basically drive the car. and this puts the brains together and allows us to put an end-to-end platform for our customers.

>> do you expect intel to benefit from this autonomous car world? ou talk about data, data, data and how important it is in the world of data? >> the first is is simply the car seeing the world and adapting how it drives. that's what we call learning data and there will be a data center. there is another sit of rhythm that will come out of the car that is mapping data. and that is augmented towards building these precision maps. maps that have a lot more information. and the third set is that the cars will be able to see the world as they drive around. there will be visual data that is going to be gathered, people on the streets and cars that it is passing and that information will be gathered and used to build information models of what's going on.

>> i'm curious about the timing, not as you talk about the lead time of automobiles, but for intel -- also where we are in a global macro sense of technological change in spending. do you feel you had to get ahead of competitors who looked at mobileeye? >> you bet. know that building this platform was important. is pleadly s deal to our earnings per share and our free cash flow for the company. it was a good deal from that perspective as well for intel. joe: that was corey johnson with intel chief executive earlier today. and for more on intel's acquisition of mobileeye. you have written that you are

skeptical of the deal. what do you know that the c.e.o. doesn't? >> $15 billion is not a huge bet and big thing for intel, it missed the big ship wave that benefited qualcomm. and it doesn't want to miss the opportunity from perhaps the next big wave in computing in these cars that are kind of the supercomputers on the road in 30 years. scarlett: it could start from scratch or buy an established player. it is going to have to pay up. >> this is not a cheap deal. price to revenue basis or earnings basis. for a company, it's not the bet the company. joe: what are the key risks? >> the biggest key risks is

well, a, they don't drive as big as we think they are going to be. and everybody involved in driverless cars, google, tesla, they are pursuing their own road maps for driverless cars which may not involve mobileeye at all or intel. and google is working on its own computer imaging technology that maps the road for self-driving cars and cuts out companies like mobileeye. that's a big risk that these big tech superpowers don't need mobileeye the way that bmw, ford or other auto makers. scarlett: mobileeye has a partnership. does intel pick the winner and say we are going to work with bmw? >> i think what intel is trying

to do here, they are not trying to pick winners and losers but presenting themselves to buyers in the auto market. you can buy intel chips along this bileeye sensors as independent kind of package and we are not going to try to compete with you the way a future apple car might. intel and mobileeye are presenting this pack acknowledge of components but in a way that is less scary. joe: it's pretty clear that on current valuations, it is an incredibly expensive deal. mobileeye has to be the winner. what are the potential upsides? how much return could they get on this if things do go the way they measure? >> this deal right away is fairly going to intel.

and they threw out some numbers like this is potentially a $70 billion market, but a lot of numbers in the self-driving car area are more fiction than fact. who knows what that market is going to look at it. scarlett: news stores are cited that qualcomm is a competitor for intel. >> we saw qualcomm bought a ugely expensive deal that is mostly in car technology and every car on the road is going to have more computer smarts and more computer chips and software. it's not like the cars are getting dumber, but the question is how big does the computerization of cars get. smartphone on wheels.

scarlett: and check out the piece on the bloomberg.com website. joe: time now for the bloomberg business slash and the biggest stories in the news right now. raymond james, won his advisory role in the intel acquisition. posted profits helped secure the $15 billion. the largest deal before that was the sale in 2006 for $10 billion. ista equity partners is buying dh corporation. it has tried to transform itself into a corporation from technology. goldman sachs to unveil the redesign of its trading hub since 2009. it is tearing down walls so money managers will sit shoulder

to shoulder and will move 500 employees from three floors into one floor. the move will be completed by he end of april. that's your bloomberg business flash. scarlett: it does look like a bloomberg office. with oil prices plunging last week does it match that of the rest of the market? ♪

talk about equities with the major industries drifting higher to record territory. d stuck in a trading range overall in the mid -- low to mid-50 range. not necessarily.

this is a ratio of the 90-day trading volatility. and what you'll find is that oil is more than four times more volatile than the snap 500. i was kind of surprise to see this. giving some of the moves, oil is less than a predictable asset class than equities. joe: 10% crash in oil. and stocks are basically doing nothing but an extraordinary divergence. let's look at the s&p 500 and measure of optimism of investors.

all this optimism. there are different reasons for shorting. ould be a hedge. all these things we will be discussing. the market close is next. not a lot of activity or movement in the dow and s&p 500. a lot of people leaving early. the federal reserve meets on wednesday. .

scarlett: not a lot of movement in the dow. they are holding at 1% of their record highs. of course, you have federal reserve decision due out on wednesday. but everyone -- well not everyone, a lot of people in the tri-state early have left early. 18-24 inches. in the meantime, let's get you a glimpse of what happened in u.s. equities. grr 1 go. this breaks down the s&p 500

into 11 industry groups and what was a fairly mixed day is more on the positive side even as the p 500 is up by less than 1 point. and utilities imagining the most and we are only talking about gains of a quarter of 1%. health care and staples doing less. let's move on to more interesting individual movers. intel buying mobileeye and push into self-driving vehicles after t missed the boat on smartphones. citrus systems, a late rally or pop, the company has hired goldman sachs. this is according to people. resorts, the stock could double because the market share could double. and the airlines index down by

more than 2% as flights are being canceled left and right long the western corridor. joe: u.s. two hifere year and 10 year yield on the day. talking quiet of that fed decision. rates continue to inch up. interesting as a 10-year. and that was the level of where bonds or markets could kick off and came back down and now back up and not much news or economic data. so interesting to see how it is oing into this decision.

>> on the commodities front, not a ton of action. we have zinc up there, copper down there at the bottom. so that's a good sign. and big massive blizzard we are going to get. and it has been cold. and getting another cold snap. natural gas getting a late winter bid.

scarlett: everyone has been waiting for something to happen. those are today's market minutes and you can find our charts using the function at the bottom of our screen. let's stick with the fed. and if it past is any guide, the likely rate increase may not be bad for emerging assets. we are looking at this section right here and doom in on it and you can see what happened. we have the yellow line which is emerging market currencies and stocks rallying as interest rates headed higher. not necessarily bad news. according to fund managers, a repeat rally will probably happen because the faster it boosts the emerging companies. joe: talk about this emerging market rally and what the

fundamentals are. talk about the weather and you know what is pretty cool. you ding w.h.u.t. go gives fancy weather maps and to go will between temperature and going to be really cold, temperature, a lot of it in our area. all different kinds of ways of exploring. if you are stuck at home and going to be sleeping under your desk and you want to see what's going on with the weather, type it in. let's look some of the data that is indicating green shoots are starting to spread in the market. south bay resemp in san francisco. andrew great to have you back. we have the fed decision on wednesday and you look at

interesting data out there from google that says this economic recovery is a real deal. what are you seeing out there? >> we have two different ways of looking at consumer trends. you have consumer confidence. those look at a few hundred people. i use google to look at basically what billions of searches are going on telling us what is in the heart and minds of u.s. consumers and the answer is they feel pretty good about the economy. there is no sign yet of any kind of job insecurity. you could build a wall of worry over some fine points. households seem pretty confident. joe: you look at the number of google searches out there for unemployment and doesn't show any signs of rising. >> no problems there. and let me take a step back. essentially, there a future in google you can track the

searches that people are doing and isolate into the u.s. and that's what i'm doing. are people looking on things like unemployment and looking at salary or looking for a and a raise. joe: we have that chart, google earches for salary raises. >> and overall the general background is people feel pretty good. you have minimum wages going up and you have this huge stock market effect. s people tend to change jobs. how does this square with the all-time high searches for the rates you showed us. >> i mentioned a minute ago, you

could build a wall of worry and echoed in the jolt data where we are seeing this high level of job opportunities but at the same time, you are seeing people starting to leave their jobs little bit less. and what is happening in general, we might be plateauing and reaching that point where employers have the workers they need and starting to send that message out to their employees and folks are saying, i like my job, the raise is good and job security is great. i don't know if i change jobs that there is a job out there. and we look at jolt data. if i go to apple's website, 15% that's b sites and so why looking at google that looks at what the employee is thinking versus the fuzzy data that comes out elsewhere, you are getting a

sense they feel good, but might have their feet on the platform and the train and see that part when you look at the economic views. very much a heightened sense, people are sensitive to the economy, interest rates, inflation, people are aware. and when you are aware, you are sensitive in your tracking. it's not going to be a bad number. scarlett: this is a chart you include in your latest report and track retail spending. what kind of advises are we talking about and you take this as an indicator. >> people who do things like gamble, drink or escort services. and i have been using that as an indicator. it is luxury spending, if someone is going to go and

gamble or do drugs, it's cash based and have to have the money in their pocket and feel good about spending it not only today but tomorrow. what i have found and i got 25 years worth of data going back in time, it does a great job of being a leading indicator for retail spending when we sfrip out autos and gas. it is mad money in the pocket. that's the can ari in the coal mine. dinner. to do a steak no, i don't feel good. the difference is talking about high volume transactions and cutting across every socioeconomic data. joe: i love your research and i appreciate you coming on. we have some breaking news because the congressional budget office has released its assessment of the house g.o.p.'s

alternative to obamacare. some of the big headlines. the bill would reduce the federal deficit by $337 billion. however it would cost 14 million more people would be uninsured. under the house health bill and we are back with kevin down in d.c. what's your snap judgment? >> this is a win, saying it would reduce the federal deficit by $337 billion is something that this white house is going to be pushing for. the fact that it would increase the number of people who are currently insured and now uninsured, democrats are going to pounce on. to say it would reduce the federal deficit is a takeaway but removing people from states that they won in the last

presidential election cycle to have directly impact them and without insurance, that's the political tight rope. million: the c.b.o. $14 more will be uninsured. in 2020 that increases to 21 million and 2026 increases to 24 million. were these numbers in line? joe talks about a whisper number . >> in terms of the whispering, the fact they are going to reduce the deficit are going to catch members of the house freedom caucus and conservatives off guard. in terms of how this will impact people especially folks in states like wisconsin, michigan, kentucky and indiana, these states that have been impacted by the affordable care act who

ve gained access base of the affordable care act or obamacare having them lose coverage, that is going to be immediately what democrats pounce on and puts a face on this issue. and is going to really set a huge test for this administration to make a selling point, make a case that those people who lose coverage -- there's nothing more than personal than health insurance coverage and how it impacts so many people. this administration has to make the case that those people will be better off and we saw this rlier today with sean spicer vowing those people will not be worse off. that's where this fight is headed. joe: pretty clear how the two sides are going to handle. democrats are going to point to the more than 20 million insured. republicans are going to point to the budgetary savings.

will the savings part be enough to get enough of those freedom caucus members on board? >> i think it might be. but when you look at the actual plan itself and i don't want to play prediction here but i would note there are several taxes that are still included within house speaker's plan that has members of the house freedom caucus very upset. items like the cadillac tax, items like medicaid expansion which rattled these ultraconservative members. these taxes are becoming what tea partyiers are institutionalized, have them very uneasy. other republicans are uneasy. because again, when you start talking about health insurance and people and constituents losing access to health insurance and as unpopular obamacare is for a large swath of the republican base there are

large parts of obamacare that are particularly popular and heading into 2018, midwest, flyover country, those folks, those constituents, those americans losing access to coverage, that's a big problem. that's not just a big political headache. hat has big impacts. ♪

scarlett: we have president is signing executive

order. let's take a listen. president trump: they know how to do it. today there is duplication and redundancy, and billions of dollars are wasted on activities and not even coming close. this order requires a thorough examination of every executive department and agency to see where money is being wasted, how services can be improved and ether programs are truly serving.

we are going to do something very, very special. never been done to the extent that we will be able to doy it. we will then work with congress to implement these recommendations on behalf of the american people. so with that, i want to thank everybody very much and wish the cabinet good luck. .e have some of the

arlett: that comes in 10 minutes time. that conversation takes place in 10 minutes.

♪

joe: markets have been on a tear and the dow jones industrial average closing in on a gain of 15%. hether that is on phenomenal opportunity. and a lot of people who had money on the sidelines ever since the 2009 bottom. the next guess explains how you should get into the market if you miss this. victor is a founder of elm partners. victor, a lot of people missed this rally and looking at the gains and say i want to get in on this and don't want to get in on the top. you have written about a

strategy of how people can get into the market in a way that alleviates their psychological anxiety. what is the approach? you have to forget about the past, it's gone, behind us. one of the first lessons that i was taught as a frayeder was to come in every day and imagine you have a blank sheet of paper, decide what you want and then move to that. if it means buying or selling and get yourself to where you want to be without reference to where you were. and first figure out where it as in terms of your equity allocation and then i have a suggestion for how to get there. joe: we are looking at this chart, 67% allocation equals 90% of total utility. explain this idea.

>> once you have decided on where you want to be and i suggest thinking about it in the long-term because it is so much easier to think about expected returns of equities. moving halfway is you want to be is giving you three-quarters of the value of getting all the way there and in fact, going 2/3 of the way is getting you 9 % of the way there and you can see it if the chart in the sense of what is happening here that the more that you own of he can its, the higher your expected return and that is going up proportional to the equities you own. but risk is something that is growing faster than your

allocation. if we take the risk, we should require four times the compensation and four times the expected return and this is the notion of being risk averse. the more risks that we take, the greater should be the compensation that we're given because we are risk averse of the so the first part of the idea that i'm trying to get across in terms of getting where you want to be is take yourself part way and you will have captured more than half of the benefit of going all the way. scarlett: more efficient way of looking at it. what kind of investors would apply this to the most? are we talking about individual investors? any institutional investors that fit the bill? >> i'm not so sure about institutional investors but there is data of allocation of individual investors is quite

low. i have seen statistics where the average allocations to retail investors is in the ball park of 20% to 25%. it applies to lots of people. we have had this eight-year bull market since march of 2009. and a lot of people have either missed parts of it or exited at different times. i was talking to a wells manager from a large investment bank just today who told me that after the election that she and her husband reduced it and waiting to get back in. it can be professionals or nonprofessionals. it's tough. >> thank you so much. fascinating blog post and check it out on his website. we will be speaking to the former director of the c.b.o. and dean of the kennedy school

of government at harvard. ♪

mark: as you just heard on bloomberg television, the congressional budget office has health care legislation written by republicans to repeal and replace obamacare would reduce the deficit but would leave many more americans uninsured. it would rise from 24 million by 2026 and the american health care act would lower the deficit y $337 billion over the 2017 -2026 period. president trump said his administration will re-examining

obama vehicle efficiency standards in a meeting with car makers. during his wednesday trip to michigan, the president will unveil plans to reinstate the midterm review of the standards and resume studying whether fuel economy rules are fees i will or auto makers need relief.

u.s. withdrawal from the t.p.p. has allies worried about a potentially new u.s. agenda for the area. in europe, 55% of french people lepenn. d of polls show her tied. beal le expected to pen. this is bloomberg.

scarlett: let's get a recap. not a whole lot going on when you look at the major iran deckses. after hours, we have breaking news on value yanlt pharmaceuticals courtesy of cnbc. 27.2 million shares at $11. the stock is down. as you come inside, give you a big deal. 18 hing square capital owns million shares of valiant. second biggest share holder, if you look up here. ershing holds 21.599 million shares. so again, reporting that selling 27.2 million at $11 a piece. joe: extraordinary wipeout.

95% from where it was. e saw it at $11 a share. nd incredible turn around. joe: here now to break down the litical price of political

health care. doug ell men doffer joins us from massachusetts. thanks for joining us. leading up to this score, we saw gaming the referee saying the c.b.o. wasn't capable or well equipped to score legislation of this size. how would you respond to that? >> c.b.o. doesn't respond to political pressure and has no political objectives. it issues its estimates that are unbiased and drawing a wealth of knowledge and information and delivers those estimates without regard to the political consequences. i think we saw over the weekend was an attempt to bat away an estimate that political leaders thought would be damaging to their cause and that's why people attack c.b.o. and trying to put a league up by pushing it

to the side. scarlett: i'm sure some g.o.p. house members are looking at the score and how much it reduces the federal deficit by and looking at it as a positive and how do they make this turn and say this is good news for us. forget what we said earlier? >> if you roll back federal subsidies, there are two natural onsequences. c.b.o.'s estimate shouldn't be surprising to anyone. the question for our elected leaders and for the american populous is about a doubling of the number of americans without health insurance is worth the $300-plus billions of savings. that is one of the tradeoffs. scarlett: another tradeoff is rising premiums. and this is something that president trump and the republicans had attacked

obamacare for. do you have any sense of how much premiums will likely rise under this new plan? >> c.b.o.'s estimate is subtle. they expect to be higher for a while and fall a little bit below current law. what matters for people it's not just the premium but also the deductibles and co-payments they pay. and c.b.o. explains that explains that premiums come down is because insurance policies will have bigger deductibles and co-payments because of the relax of the law under the affordable care act. even when premiums come down, people will be paying more out of pocket for health care. moreover, many people are getting subsidized and the subsidies are down by 40% on average. this is bad news for middle

i-income and lower-income people, like many of us are getting federal help because of the tax treatment. this new law being proposed would take away subsidies for people who can't get insurance through their employers. joe: let's talk about the distributional impact of the a.c.a. people who are currently getting help from the government would lose out. there's issues with older versus younger people and some people who are older would see big premiums jump, according to reports. >> the increases in premiums would be pronounced for older americans because the affordable care act limited the range of premiums based on age. and this bill would relax that limit. older americans would pay more in premiums. the people who would be worst off would be older, lower-income

americans. but another distributional part that is important, the subsidies for health insurance are going down and taxes under the affordable care act which were focused on hire-income people will be cut. this is very good for better off americans and not good for lower or middle-income americans. scarlett: if you are looking at what the house republicans have introduced, how would you be preparing your assessment of the health care law? how would you propose amendments to what they have already introduced? >> some republicans would be happy to roll back the insurance subsidies and save the government money. but other republicans in the senate have said very publicly that they don't want to take away subsidies for people who

are getting them today and don't want to cut way back in medicaid and don't want that sharp reduction in the number of health with insurance. their play is to try to put back higher subsidies in the insurance marketplaces and put back on medicaid spending, but that will come into conflict with the views of freedom caucus and others who are trying to scale back government subsidies. there is a challenge. there is no way to maintain the high level of coverage without subsidies and changes similar to those in the a.c.a. the republicans can't have it both ways and maintain health coverage and budgetary savings. this plan is a balancing of those considerations but going to make a lot of people unhappy on both sides of the republican political range. joe: great to have you.

appreciate your expertise on this breaking news. dean of kennedy school of government at harvard. scarlett: valiant shares falling n after-hours sharing. and bill, the head of pershing squares saced he will not be standing for re-election. they are one half. of its funds. and valiant shares falling in extended trading. joe: i just remember. this company was supposed to be the future of pharmaceuticals. the berkshire hath away and it was over 250 a share and now as we see, it is below $12.

♪

le pen rose to 26%. and he is right behind her and now for more on the possible scenarios which she could win. we are going to deutsche bank. this matters and the reason you are putting together this

with s because it matters a lepen victory. >> has a very small chance of winning, but if she does, euro zone will be breaking up. joe: we look at the polls. and first round, le pen and next round and doesn't seem like she has a chance. you have taken another approach in which you have layered on top of each other very potential voters that she can draw from, some from the left wing candidate and some other candidates. and it is plausible she could get to 50%. explain the work. >> the definition of a stress test. and when you look at small candidates on the far left, 19%

chance that voters are going to te for le pen and you go for people who say they are not going to vote and it maybe shameful for le pen and take these people who are not going to vote and assume they are going to vote for le pen. and people on the left. center left and center right and extremely low probability. there is very much the far left and people on the far right as far as the party where there is a probability of them voting for le pen and presume they will go. and she would basically have won the election. scarlett: does it matter that the candidates from the far left or far right never openly endorse her?

>> it matters if there is an endorsement. o party matters. there is a way it does matter. people on the far left would never recommend a move. so there is something that is being declared. and people from the far left saying they are going to vote. but not going to happen. and thing on the right encourage people to vote for madam le pen. you will have to give something to get it. joe: there might be people who are going to vote for le pen. you hear this sometimes with other candidates and people talk about trump and brexit. does the historical record suggest when you have the controversial populous, nationalist candidates that they tend to outperform their

polling? and b, we have the dutch election coming up in two days where there is a similar candidate, are you going to be looking at his performance as a possible proxy of how le pen does in her polling? >> she does very well and will be positive influence. and decent probability that it does help. , people are lepen not ashamed that they will vote for her. people who voted for her in the past are not and quite different from brexit. she might be considered to be populous by some definition but has gone more mainstream. scarlett: one thing you pointed out is an external intervention would have an impact on the first round, something like

meddling, a country like russia where they allegedly into veend in the u.s. election. it would generate an external response. and you found that emotion is anger rather than fear and prompts people to vote, right? >> a lot of research is done in terms of polling and there is a research peace, long research hat has been carried around. and part of that research basically have been given out and what they have said anger drives populous vote whatever populous is. number two, as you get close to an election the undecided gets decided. there is external intervention that comes one to two weeks before the first round or second

round. joe: great stuff, fascinating win. on why le pen could scarlett: how many hikes we could see in 2017. and brings us to a programming note and special programming on wednesday at 1:00. om and i, "the fed decides." . ♪

scarlett: "what'd you miss." we are taking a deep dive into the bloomberg. i'm focused on the fed and betting for what it does after march. yes, a march rate hike is a done deal and the focus is on the

path to future increases and what investors are betting, one hike would take us to 1%. that's the white line and april contract. ter that, two hikes is one-to-one and a quarter%. that's the july contract. three hikes, if there will be, and that's the yellow line. the december contract. what's important here is the take-away i had, two hikes are being priced in as early as july. this is a huge change from a month ago. and other people i'm suggesting and the fed will move back to a schedule and increases rates. joe: it would be remarkable and how much the federal expectations really in the last two weeks from maybe march to maybe -- scarlett: definite march. dots and theing at

nice thing you can see where the fed sees the rates are going and what is great, you can see the green line, that's the latest fed projection as of the december meeting. the purple line, that's the market expectation. the red line is the market expectations. you can see for 2017, the fed and the market are right in the same spot. bloomberg did a survey of economists and they see three rate hikes and extraordinary moment where the fed, the market and independent economists are all in alignment of what we are going to get, which is three hikes. maybe the fed could lift it to four, maybe not. but right now, beautiful marriage of expectations. everybody aligned.

scarlett: it has been a long time going. is the fed behind the curve or jumping ahead. joe: 2014, there were huge gaps between the two lines sm the fact they have come together is pretty extraordinary. scarlett: we'll see how it plays out on wednesday. bring you some headlines from house speaker paul ryan and issued a statement. he said there will be a stable transition in health care and recognizes concerns about access to coverage after the c.b.o. said 14 million americans. he said it does not take into further accounts that congress will be taking to further lower costs and increase choices. 14 .b.o. scorecard said million more uninsured. joe: democrats are going to hammer away. the fact that 24 million --

republicans are going to say premiums will go down. initially premiums will go up and the out of pocket expenses. this is the beginning of the fight. scarlett: what you need to gear up for new york's trading day. ♪

scarlett: everybody awaits the fed decision on wednesday. joe: another day of no equity market action. scarlett: retail sales and production numbers out tonight at 10:00 p.m. joe: and i will be looking at c.p.i. data. scarlett: we are on weather watch tonight and tomorrow. a blizzard expected for the earn coast. the governor of connecticut has

lisa: i am alisa capex "bloomberg technology." alisa parenti and you are watching "bloomberg technology." "bloomberg technology." during a trump spoke

meeting with carmakers in detroit. he is expected to unveil new plans during a trip wednesday to michigan. meantime, the president and --na's she's in pink capex president may meet next week. they will meet at the metalico resort in florida. washington and other states fighting to block the revised travel ban what a hearing tomorrow before a seattle judge. a complaint filed on their behalf says the ban is unconstitutional. other states joined washington in pushing legal action. the ban goes into effect thursday. senate minority leader chuck schumer is warning republicans that a test to pay for the border wall by the funding -- defunding planned parenthood would fail. a partial government shutdown would begin on april 29.