to stay away from protectionism. and the markets stay flat. the showdown, the french presidential candidates, macron we genetics his assets are undervalued. good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance, francine lacqua in in london and tom keene in london. a lot of moves after the french elections. tom: i notice a weaker dollar and we'll go to that in a moment. another week, we need a weekend to recover from last week and we stagger into a lot going on. the french debate is tonight, right? francine: tonight, five candidates, three hours. tom: is five candidates unprecedented in france? francine: five candidates is unprecedented because you have a lot more people from the outside. the first round you usually

have five or six and here there's three major ones. i'll be a little tired tomorrow. let's get to the first word. here's taylor rigs. taylor: starting in europe, germany has looked at president trump's allegation it owes large amounts to nato and the u.s. put german accountant said there's no cannot. they've complained in the past most nato nations including germany don't meet the goal of sending 2% on convince of their budget. the challenger to merkel is ruling out a donald trump style campaign. martin shultze won the parties in september elections and pledge to avoid personal attacks. social democrats are in the statistical tie with merkel's christian democratic led block. in the u.s. the senate begins hearings today on president trump's nominee for the supreme court, neal gorsuch and they're trying to get enough votes for the 60-vote threshold for the streak picks and if not they

will eliminate the threshold .nd use a simple vote netanyahu threatened to dissolve his government and call early elections. he told ministers from his party he'll dismantle the government if the finance minister doesn't agree to scrap a new public broadcaster and keep the old one running, according to two party members. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2,600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. francine and tom? tom: let's get to commomid thes -- commodities and lead with the dollar. it's flattened out, 117.59, flatter yield curve. i can talk on a monday. three, two, one, yield curve. oil back to a 48 handle. on to the next screen, the

d.x.y. hitting 100.02 and it's a weaker dollar. i did crude twice. sorry, it's monday. i did nymex crude twice. fred: i like it. look at that, there's crude. francine: we're excited, tom. i wanted to point your attention to the u.s. 10-year yield at 2.50 and yen touching the strong nest three weeks. next time i'm putting the korean yuan because it was the highest in five months and a great f.x. strategist is here. guy: here's a chart of the dollar in the trump election. november 8, there's a 100 level and you've got these two points here, down we go. this is the rollover. we're getting back near dollar support to go under 100. it's something on a monday morning. francine? francine: this is what i'm looking at. i like your chart. this is simple pound short net

positions. we're looking through hedge funds and have a great bloomberg function and we tart chart it and this basically is what it shows us and it shows hedge fund and other large speculators were leading the wrong way going into the bank of england's march 16 meeting. this is kind of what we're seeing here and something we need to keep an eye on. i'm folk yutsing on effects because we need to look back at what happened at g-20. global finance chiefs are returning home after a g-20 meeting that saw them paper over the cracks on the issue of free trade. the meeting's concluding statement dropped the previous reference to resist all forms of protectionism with u.s. mnuchin. steve steve: we're one of the largest markets in the world, one of the largest trading partners in the world it. trade has been good for us and other people. having said that, we want to re-examine certain agreements.

francine: let's bring in our tragedy and f f.x. joined by steve kean in a second. always a pleasure. what will drive currency, will it be binear elections outcome, free trade against free trade or will the market be a lot more physical sticted. >> a number of factors is playing out. f.x. will be an important one. no surprise the french election in april or may. the central banks remain very important. i think what we are seg now is a bit of a overreaction to the fed last week. maybe we can discuss that. regarding the g-20, certainly not the happiest moment in the history of the g-20. i'm more worried about the step back of our climate than about trade. on trade, listen, there's no real surprise and knew that

administration is not happy with international trade and the imbalances we have in the u.s. so they could not go the g-20 and act as if nothing had changed. we had a bit of a stepback there but nothing dramatic. francine: overall seems the markets are ignoring the noise we're hearing from the administration. how protectionist will the u.s. be and what effect will that have on dollar? guest: there's been a lot of talk about a number of issues but in terms of action, not so much yet. i think now we have to wait for the g-20 in july with the head of states. that probably will be a very important moment. up to then, we would have some bilateral discussions. but i don't think anything dramatic comes on that point. eventually i think we night see a number of reactions which

could be supportive of the u.s. dollar. but i don't think it's going for be even a deceasive mover in 2016. tom: one of the moves is the idea after the central bank festivities it will get everything sinking together and get higher yields and better g.d.p. tell me about noisy g.d.p. do you assume the u.s. and for that matter europe will get the g.d.p. the optimists are expecting or will it be more tepid. guest: no, overall the global economy is doing better and we heard that from the i.m.f., from le guard over the weekend. i believe we have the strongest upturn since 2012-2013 and matter of fact the output gap is closer today and could feed into inflation. regarding the u.s. g.d.p., q-1

is tracking it to low level. that participates to the fed being dovish. the inflation data will be higher but in a very muted way. so i'm quite hospital mystic -- quite optimistic about the policy and believe we see a change from the central bank and it's a slow move and then we'll be talking about the b.o.j. but there is that move away from superacom dating policy and is a change in bonds. francine: we'll go to professor steve king, from the school of ocial and behave orl -- behave -- behavioral sciences. do you believe the u.s. is setting the scene for a trade

battle? steve: i think they are. i think trump enjoys confrontation and we've seen an example of that in the last 50 days and think he will be in the trade war. how it will take place, i'm not trying to predict his moves but is the expectation i believe he will engage in one. francine: you expect something chaotic? steve: welcome to chaos. this is what set off the financial crisis in fate and we're not seeing an escape from it but a different phase because there is a very rival in credit demand at the moment, picking up the american economy and japanese and european to some extent but it won't last and i think this particular recovery will evaporate fairly rapidly the way japan has done the last 25 years. tom: professor keene, no relation, thrilled to have you with us from your work in australia and particularly debunking economics. i want to bring up your fabulous op-ed in forbes of a

while back where you collegially go after the professor olivia blanchard who has been a good friend of the show and given us wisdom on the debate and the theory that underlies janet yellen and mark carney. here is professor kean, general equal inrean has to go and no longer is necessary, the use of construct by economists is a major barrier to progress in the field, progress can be made if economists abandon it if the economy is a complex system and never is an equilibrium. help me here and goes back to the book "hubris." what does janet yellen need to in a period where general aequilibrium is out the window? steve: it's hard for economists to break away from the mindset of believing the economy is a system which tends towards equilibrium and had a small shock and there's a final turn

and now can get the normal atity to rate of interest of 2 and 4 which is the magic set of numbers built in the so-called dynamics for equilibrium models and they're ignoring the huge accumulation of private debt that occurred in the bubble itself which peaked 1.7 times g.d.p. in america and is down to 1.5. the revival room we have 30% of g.d.p. worth of credit and that will run out and what japan has been doing now for 25 years. it shows the model doesn't work. tom: help us what we saw from chair yellen, can the central bank get out front of the debate and can they do forward guidance or by definition a year world or olivia blanchard's world are they ex-post by definition? steve: ex-post by definition but they have large weapons in their hands they want to get rid of. that's the scale of the excess

reserves they've generated through the q.e. processes and the extent they're on the buy side for bonds which then encourages the banks to sell the bonds to them to want to buy shares which is what has inflated the level of share prices as high as they are now so i think i've always called that a pack with the devil and they'll find as they try to unwind that weapon and raise interest rate they'll cause chaos. tom: let's come back if we can. next hour we'll keep the debate going and honored to bring you jeffrey sacks from columbia university and his research on happiness and of course on the president of the united states. from london and new york, stay with us. this is bloomberg.

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taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm taylor rigs. deutsche bank plans to raise $8.6 billion by selling stock at a discount. germany's largest bank is trying to shore up finances and increase growth. the existing shareholders will be able to buy one new share for each share they hold now. that's your bloomberg business flash. tom and francine? francine: thanks so much. now let's get more deutsche bank. taylor saying we're seeing a little news coming out yesterday and this morning. we're joined by bloomberg's finance editor and steve king of kingston university. what did we learn on deutsche? guest: we learned more about the business outlook. not a huge surprise but the revenue remains flat. a bit more detail and language on the business markets which of course is a key engine at

deutsche bank and there again the language, somewhat cautious, the bank is helpful and ll regain market share equity flows are sluggish. and seems they're raising $8 billion to take the capital question off the table but still needs to be quite a lot to happen in the way of revenue generation in the months and years to come. francine: how much do you know about capital being unhinged and will it be a problem raising this money? elisa: the investors want to support and increase the stakes which is qatar and a.n.a. and the share price has held up and saying that it comes from a low base and the european banks on the whole is trading low multiples but i think they've got a risk an whatever happens the money is in the bag.

tom: i have 18 questions, elisa. it's important, i'll start with this, they increased the selling group size. that's always a bad sign. can they sell this deal? i know it gets you in trouble but is this deal going to go? elisa: yes, 30 banks, if i'm not mistaking, yes, it is a large size but we're seeing that more and more across all types of capital market actions, companies try to bring in as many underwriters as possible. i wouldn't read too much into that. the share price having held up well is obviously an indicators. tom: is there an assumption there will offensive board the cash call 24 months from now. one of the sales reports talked up another $2 billion needed down the road. elisa: that's the question that investors who haven't made up their mind yet will be keen to get an answer before they invest. are the legacy issues

sufficiently behind them for there not to be another surprise, for example, in regards to a large find. .s that all behind the bank clearly it's known where the regulation is going but the known so far has been from the legacy and legal issues that have come back and created quite a large bill for the bank. francine: thanks so much. elisa martinuzzi. if you look at the banks and i know you can't comment on french banks but overall how much do we need the banks strong in europe and also for the transmission mechanism to work? so far it's a catch-22 and the economies trump the banks and banks trump the economy. guest: overall the economy is doing better and banks are doing better and because yields are going higher a bit. also because there is hope out ere that the massive

regulatory shock is going to cool off and that was a topic of discussion at the g-20. so the mood overall is slightly better but i agree that remains the weak link in terms of transmission. bank credit in particular remains quite soft. that's something that the e.c.b. is still looking into. that will be part of all the talk we have about the exit strategy. do we want to raise rates before the end of q.e.? would that be a good thing for banks? i'm not sure. i think the market is getting slightly carried away with that but clearly there are some big question marks in the market now about the exit strategy. francine: steve? steve: talking about the banks improving the mechanism is talking about banks creating more credit and they're not and

anything used to before the financial crisis because the private sector has so much debt. it's only fallen by 30% of g.d.p. for every country that had a crisis back then and of course at some point the countries have borrowed their way through the crisis like china and south korea and australia. you can't improve a inflation mechanism because the gears are stuffed with amuch banana and happened with the rising debt that hasn't been addressed. francine: thank so you much. we'll get to that next and talk about this book, "can we avoid a financial crisis." we'll be back with steve keen of kingston university and also coming up, we speak with the i.a. executive director. looking at those contracts on w. it i. and nymex. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: "bloomberg surveillance" from london and new york. francine and tom. let's go to berlin and talk about oil. we both did a data check and showed crude oil twice. finance ministers and central bankers came together in germany over the weekend but dropped from their agenda with climate change but germany leads on the power supply front speaking to transition to green energy supply. let's go to berlin where the m.f. director joins us mr.

biroh, glad to have you. but when we speak to the c.e.o.'s of the oil majors, there's attention to how much global demand for oil will increase. here do you stand on this? guest: mr. biroh: we look at the oil markets and see two important trends. oil demand will continue to increase this year and for a few years to come. they don't see a peak of oil demand growth driven by china and more and more by india and it is driven by cars, trucks, jets in particular and industrial. this is the first which is very clear to us. the second issue in oil markets is important to note is the u.s. shale oil is making a strong comeback as we have foreseen. a couple of quarters ago.

we are seeing a second day of u.s. shale oil production coming to the markets. these are the two clear trends we see today in the markets. francine: have you been surprised by the pace of strength in shale producers? fatih: i wouldn't say so. we were the first ones which the first discussion on the help -- epidemic came on the market. and this may well give a boost to prices but don't forget this increases the prices which have an impact on the u.s. shale oil production and as we have predicted, u.s. shale oil production will increase at least 500,000 barrels per day from last december to next december and therefore will be very important for the producers, the others to take

the u.s. shale oil production into consideration. top: mr. biroh, wonderful to have you with us. your energy outlook is gospel in counting the barrels. let me ask you a philosophical question and maybe you can help president trump as well. is america a nonopec nation? when you write up your acclaimed report, do you look at america as a nonopec nation or is it pog removed different? afatih: opec is the organization of the oil export in country which is we know, let some of them be in africa and some in the middle east. these places are not an opec country but with the u.s. oil and gas markets, we are going to see, we believe, a major boom of u.s. oil production and more importantly, for us in

terms of the numbers, u.s. shale production. we have on friday released some statistics which i think is very telling. the u.s. last year played a very particular role in terms of reducing big cardboard emissions out of shale gas remacing coal and also making it much more objective. u.s. shale gas evolution has to reduce emissions in order to push the blended energies. tom: help me with the elacticity or responsiveness of all the barrels sloshing around the world and what it means to hold up the price of oil. how fragile is a price dreen. how likely will we see a price break in oil. fatih: as you see with the dollar press we have today, we

see a significant chunk of the shale oil projects make perfect sense but if it goes lower, we may well see the production growth may be weaker. but there is also an upside to this story. if the process goes to the 830, we may very well see shale oil production both may be stronger than me or others currently anticipate. francine: if opec is going to achieve their goal of lowering inventories do they have to roll their cuts after may? guest: it should be up to the opec countries to decide whether they'll cut or not after the first agreement. once again i want to give the same warning i did before the first cut. if the tropical storm goes up, weville see a reaction from the shale oil production in significant terms and therefore all of these cuts, projects,

agreements need to take shale oil production in consideration. tom: mr. birol, thanks so much. the international energy agency and is their executive director. let's get you to our first word news with taylor rigs. taylor: starting in the u.s. the health intelligence committee will question james comey about the accusations of obama wiretapping. comey sees no evidence to testify about the claim and will testify about russian's in the elections. it's not set to make weight before independence. he accused may to be intransient and doesn't want his vote while negotiating for the u.k. to leash the e. aumplet and said a vote in two years would an fair compromise. in europe it was a victory for the trump administration at the

group of g-20 in germany. the finance managers wrangled before deciding to drop all forms of protectionism. turkey's minister thinks it's a mistake. >> you open it to trade. there's no evidence trade is destroying jobs and therefore a trade is one of the core engines of global growth. a we should not go down protectionist path. so clearly the wording should stay as it has been. taylor: u.s. treasury secretary steve mnuchin signalled the government will review existing trade agreements so the u.s. can seek better deals. in asia u.s. secretary of state rex tillerson used a 24-hour trip to beijing to reassure owners. after a meeting with the president, he echoed chinese phrasings and wanted mutual respect. he and president trusm are

expected to meet next month. bloomberg powered by more than 2,600 analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor rigs. tom and francine? francine: thanks very much. we hear about what we've heard about rex tillerson. we're here with professor steve keen from the university of social and behavioral sciences. rex tillerson shows up and he went on a 24-hour trip to beijing to smooth a way for these unexpected detours. downtown believe in a trade war but how does the yuan and dollar trade every time there's a fairing up of irks or a tweet sent. vincent: i'm not saying i don't believe in a trade war but i'm saying it will be a slow process and eventually i'm not quite sure the actions will be as tough as the world has been. so we have occasional tensions.

t again for me the big rendezvous will be in july, the g-20 and until then we'll have bilateral talk and don't think there bill be a major driver of the markets. there's the c.n.y. overall continues to weaken at a slow pace this year and don't expect the detroit discussion to have a major impact in the next couple months. francine: what's your favorite currency pairing, i heard swiss yen to euro-dollar in parity. vincent: the reason we go to parity now i think is much slower. the political risk in europe sems to be diminishing and we went be discussing the french debate tonight. obviously it remains a key foukous. overall the political risk is

diminishing and the e.c.b. is discussing the exit which is a key issue for the euro. so we probably have seen the euro in europe dollar and i think dollar yen will eventually shoot higher this year. and we believe it will rise towards 120. tom: take us to the fiscal landscape. i think of the work of charles wypotts and help us here on where we are in this strange word austerity? are we still austere? steve: i'm afraid we are. it's natural for the government to believe when they're in the house of lords or commons or the senate they're holding is to be responsible about the finances and they transfer what they think about households across to the government and think how we must to try to expand nine more than we earn or spend bless than what we earn because it's the house

speaking with good finance. but you're destroying part of the money supply. the government is not like a household but a bank and can create money the same way banks do but instead of creating debt they create deficit and by refusing to do that they're cutting money in the economy and telling it to grow faster. tom: give us a quick insight on the future of your united kingdom. i love telling some guy from australia that, your united kingdom. help me with brexit. francine and i want to know what you think so far about brexit? steve: i actually voted for brexit, not because i thought it would be good or bad for the united kingdom. but i call myself a groucho markist, i'm in a glub, do i want to be here? the answer is no, with the club being the european union which cost them zero which the u.s. is not a part of and thought it would fall afarther the next five or six years if sure so why not make an exit where the club is all these years.

and those people that didn't see the financial crisis coming eight years ago said the world will fall apart when brexit occurs and two days later the economy will tank and i went along with richard verna saying it's not big deal and won't have much of an impact. the credit directions have more impact than a hypothetical change to trade relations. we saw the u.k. economy boom after that. francine: what's the wrong thing you see on pound, is it lower from here? vincent: overall we think pounds will scoot over. the question is how much main we get from high inflation eating into real income and eventually spending. o that's going to be a bit tweak. i think that will tap any gain in sterling. that said, as you showed the short positions are still very large so you will have occasional rebones but when you

talk about fed hikes and e.c.b. exit, i think pound probably we stay on the weak side. francine: thank you so much. we'll be back with steve king of kingston university. coming up on bloomberg's daybreak, a conversation with the mississippi defender on the rate hike decision. look for the 9:00 a.m. in new york and 1:00 p.m. on london.

♪ tom: a supreme view of washington, d.c. and really with all that's going on, the supreme court front and center today. mr. gorsuch will head to

capitol hill. joining us is francine lacqua. in washington, the federal editor in government and economics and social justice as well. our font of wisdom on the supreme court, help me here with this moment. will this be the final conservative tilt as mr. gorsuch is made a justice of the supreme court? guest: all signs point to that, tom. his strategy going up on the hill is to just not make any mistakes. don't say anything that might create a firestorm that could create an environment where the democrats who are promising to be very kept school of his candidacy do things that prevent himself sitting on the supreme court. but he's going to be there it looks like. tom: in the modern era, does is remind you of j.f.k., david solder and others, if presidents get disappointed by how judges react. why is the script any different

here, at what point does judge gorsuch disappoint the president? marty: it will be interesting to see because for instance the immigration order is headed to the supreme court and it's sort of an interesting convergence of timing. will he be there to hear those cases? and you're right, tom, you never know make you're going to get. you never do on the supreme court. francine: what's your take on the angela merkel and donald trump meeting? it was two or three days ago but people are talking about nothing else. did they like that in washington and it seems they didn't get along on anything? marty: seems a bit in the language and angela merkel and the prime minister of japan, abe, just a day or two later talked about doing things on little one med a

upman ship as a message to donald if he doesn't play ball on trade they'll go elsewhere. francine: will we get more of the wire tapping claim or are they trying to push it under the carpet? marty: the high drama today is dick comey's testimony to the intelligence committee on the hill where we may get the unprecedented sign of an f.b.i. director directly contradicting his boss and basically saying what donald trump said about wiretapping in the white house is just false and will be very interesting today. francine: thank so you much, marty shanker, the editor for international government. let's bring in the federal chairman with us and steve keen of kingston, university. great to have you on set. we're nearing the end of his 100 days, what has his legacy been so far?

>> uncertainty. the man is revolutionary and ran on a program of overthrowing the norms of washington. he has. it's not necessarily a mrs. pleasant sight to watch but have to remember what he promised to do and he's doing it. francine: who is most at risk, foreign policy, other countries or people within the u.s. economy? george: he's arguing one of the problems of the u.s. economy is the national trade system. he is therefore pressing on the trade system to begin reform. g-20 gave a signal it can't resist the united states at least on paper. he ran arguing against the free trade system and he's going to be meeting with gee and met with merkel and they won't be happy but the u.s. is the 600 pound gorilla. tom: help me out from what we observed from secretary

tillerson and i imagine the secretary of defense is a more visible job and what have we learned from tillerson that c.e.o. is the head of it and it's remarkable on this asian trip? george: matusz and tillerson are playing the good cops and going out there and saying there will be continuity and we're not looking for conflict and then they come to meet trump and trump is looking for conflict. he benefits from what he thinks politically but thinks it's a necessary thing to do that relations with countries like germany have to be regianted -- redefined and what it's been like for 70 years in germany can't be what it will be like in the future? francine: is president trump changing the way we speak to other leaders? george: the tweet made about merkel after she left that it's fair share for american presence in europe is the most

undiplomatic thing written since the declaration of war in the 19th century. so he's using the same tactics one uses in real estate transactions, shalk and awe. francine: does it work? do you do business like in foreign policy? steve: i don't think you do. it may help germans realize they have an undervalued currency because they have a monumental trade service because if they had their own currency they'd be higher than they are. trump is quite right to isolate that but bringing if nato is a total firthy to use an australian term. it may be effective but would take two decades to recover from the way he changed our diplomacy. tom: can they spend that many billions consistently? when you throw that much money at the margin at new defense,

oes it get spent well? george: no. and the president is saying the united states has been at war for 15 years. the military is trained both in terms of equipment and personnel. there is going to have to be some sort of significant change. many of the things he's doing in nato is he's saying after 70 years we have to redefine a relationship in the alliance which is a fairly reasonable thing to say. he just says is it a little unreasonably. francine: what does it mean how people interpret it? saying things that make sense but in a way taken badly can it actually stars wars? george: in this particular case it raised the question of what is the purpose of nato? nato once had a purpose to defend against soviet aggression. what is the alliance and what does it mean and what can we count on? the reliance is an agreement

beforehand to participate. the economy of europe is no longer where the economy was 70 years ago, what's the contribution to nato? there's a huge question whether nato has a use, what that use in previous administrations didn't want to upset our lies and what we have as a result is a zombie organization, nobody is quite sure what it does. francine: thanks so much, george friedman and steve kingston stays with us. we're getting breaking news out of ubs who will be tried in a french tax case. this is a case where french authorities tried to settle -- this is for alleged tax fraud that posted the bank to post a 1.1 billion euro bond to cover any potential penalties three years ago. what we understand so far is they're saying they're not guilty for anything and this case will go to trial. they're saying it will be tried in the french tax case.

they put aside $1.1 billion euros to deal with any liability. we'll get more on that in a minute and look at your markets. this is bloomberg. ♪

taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm taylor rigs. let's get to bloomberg flash. a governing member of the council said policymakers could back off their commitment to keep interest rates low once quantity eightive easing ends. >> i cannot say q.e.e.'s at the same time interest rates are being maintained at the low level. i think the consistency between -- e value component es components is important and is not a measure of one by one. taylor: visco is there for the business meeting. thank you. francine: in less than five weeks voters will make their choice in the first round of france the closely fought election. tonight the five leading candidates face each other in

the first televised debate of the race with multiple polls showing 39-year-old independent macron. we talk to a analyst from our bureau. five candidates, it usually lasts two or three hours and starts at 9:00 p.m. local. is everyone going to try and go after emanuel macron to make him look bad? guest: he's the frontrunner and everybody will be after him. you see the french system as it works, it's two rounds and looks like it will go in the second round. whoever she rins against will be favored to beat her because they'll gather votes from the to r so macron, they have center because they could knock him down, not le pen because she has a solid base of support

and will be hard to chisel away at her support but macron is a different matter. fred: for our american audience and also tom keene, do the french look at debates on substance or style? do they think to policies and say i want to slow for him because it promises to be this? gregory: a mixture of both. these candidates have wide views and we go from the extreme left to the extreme right between these five. they're talking all very different policies. the policies do matter but obviously the personality does, too. especially someone like macron, only 39 and not that well known to the french though he's leading in the polls. in his case he has to show he's presidential and will be the main thing, that macon can be president. tom: help me with how they compare it to others.

how engaged is it this monday evening? gregory: it's pretty engaged because we've got the national front which is a party that's completely outside the mainstream of french politics and definitely will make it into the second round and is something rather hard to be indifferent about. francine: thank so you much, greg, from our paris bureau. when you look at the landscape in france, first of all, you're for brexit and are you for the english panel? steve: i'm for economic policies. we talk about the policies she's putting forward to leave the euro and that's something that left the people also in favor of and think it's the only sensible thing to do and ultimately the only way for france to escape low growth traffic the last 10 years is leave the euro. she's putting together a policy i agree with and is anti- cycle and macron is a

of lip terrace him. francine: the french think she's racist, is she? steve: she threw her father out of the party and is critically racist. and there are elements that don't fit the right wing racist portrayal of her. the history is so strong against her for that reason in france. what she's done doesn'tmaker like the leader in the netherlands, not nearly as extreme as that. tom: do you see trump popularism in europe? steve: i do. this liberal agenda only works because we borrowed ourselves to the hit in a private debt bubble and left people with poverty. and overgeared assets she can't afford anymore in the midwest america. the euro had its own prosperity on it and you say you're the experts and supposed to be like castor oil, tastes bad but good

for you in the long run and we'll vote for a huge hand grenade than the usual politician. tom: thanks for being with us and engaging the debate in global macroeconomics. steve keen, no relation again at kingston university, way too smart to be a real estatetive of mine. coming up another smart guy at the professor at columbia university and we could go three hours with jeffrey sachs. jeffrey on russia and the total collapse of climate change policy. no, jeffrey sachs on how i'm miserable today. i'm very unhappy. this is bloomberg.

>> deutsche bank buttresses its

balance sheet with a billion new euros. the outlook for 2017 is broadly flat. france holds a presidential debate. macron willen, and dash. as they begin the good morning everyone. this is bloomberg surveillance. we are live from our world headquarters in new york. i am tom keene with francine lacqua. there is almost pageantry in france tonight's debate. >> five main candidates will be introducing. they have two and a half hours of debate. we have a lot more on policy and it seems four of them will probably gang up on marine le pen mainly because she is so far right but also on emmanuel macron and because he is the front runner.

tom: first word news, here's taylor riggs. >> in europe, germany has rebuffed president trump's allegations that it that it -- that it owes money to the u.s. other leaders have complained in the past that most nato nations are spendingmany 2% of their budget on the fence. the social democratic party challenger to germany's chancellor is ruling out a donald trump style campaign. she will pledge to avoid personal attacks. the social democrats are in a tie with merkel's christian democratic led block. in the u.s. the senate begins hearings today on president trump's nominee for the supreme court, neil gorsuch. republicans are trying to get democratic support for a 60 vote threshold. they have indicated they are willing to illuminate the threshold and using simple majority votes to confirm gorsuch.

in the middle east israels prime minister benjamin netanyahu has reddened to dissolve his government and call early elections. he told ministers he will dismantle the government if finance ministers don't agree to scrap the new public broadcaster and keep the old one running. to does therding members. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: let's get through equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. the dollar is weaker. that is the line this morning. the euro near 108. the 210 flattens out. 38 -- crude below 48. the vix 11.65. well.llar is 100.2824 as francine: that is a similar check to what i am looking at.

i want to show you the 10 year in the u.s. treasury. the euro is holding onto friday's decline. japanese stocks are actually closed and i want to show you korean won the highest in five months. tom: joining us right now in washington, our chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. you've got us set for the week. bring us back to reality. how does judge gorsuch avoid doing a villanova this week? >> teacher be fine. i think the sources i speak with inside of the white house tell me they anticipate he will be able to clear senate judiciary committee hearing questions set to begin today. frankly, if he doesn't get the procedural votes needed to clear they will just use the nuclear option and he will be fine. >> let's move on to mr. comey in the fbi and the busy calendar. how does mr. comey avoid doing a villanova on the hill this week?

>> he is going to face tough questions from the house intelligence committee hearing when he testifies. president trump is facing questions not only from democrats but also from republicans in his own party, about not only the evaluations and the so-called wiretapping but of course, his previous ties with russia. tom: i hope you notice he did not take the bait of doing a villanova, not once but twice. he had to move on. pick it up. francine: he is a true professional, you know that. kevin, what is the one thing people will be talking about? i know people are trying to figure out exactly what that angela merkel meeting at the white house meant for relationships between the u.s. and the eu. is the u.s. focusing on the parts of the world? >> here is the bottom line.

this in ministration feels they have the leverage and the bilateral trade agreements, but clearly over the weekend president trump tweeting out specifically about nato, saying germany doesn't pay its fair share. i think when you take a broader set that, this is a tense relationship. they have tried to find some common ground on vocational training, so to speak but the issue of trade is it is going to continue to be that way. tom: i am sure you know that your brackets will be better than mine. our chief washington correspondent. now joining us is someone way out front. maybe president trump read his book, the price of civilization. jeffrey sachs and of columbia university. he does not agree with the president but he has to see how the president applies policy here. you were way out front on the struggles of this nation with your book "price of civilization."

the president struck a third rail with the american public, a er, opioid, other issues out there, that were in your book. what is the is you to get this administration to begin a constructive dialogue with liberals, independence, and republicans? >> this administration is not having a constructive dialogue with anybody right now. what happened at the g-20 this weekend was alarming, actually. they couldn't even make a statement opposing protectionism because steve mnuchin, the treasury secretary held the ground and said "no, we are not going to oppose perfectionism, we are not going to make a statement about climate change." 19 to one, the u.s. trump is actually -- absolutely array in the whole world against the u.s. tom: you suggested on the opioid rob portman, i

guess doesn't read jeffrey sachs. he is a moderate republican from ohio. you and the senator from ohio have more common ground than with the president. can the democrats co-opt a republican centrist group to oppose this administration? >> let me just say a word about what is happening. our society is falling apart. this has been clear for years. there is a divide between those who have a college education, times can be better, and those who have a high school degree, jobs are following and wages are falling, mortality rates are rising, opiate addiction rising, suicide rates rising. so along comes the republican health plan. it is to cut the tax at the top and throw more than 20 million people off of health care coverage. are they kidding? are they kidding? what are they doing?

it is dreadful what is going on right now and we have to say it. "you introduced me earlier in a miserable mood." today is supposed to be world happiness day and we are releasing the world happiness report. the united states is in a freefall right now, out of the 34 oh ac countries. the u.s. came 21st this year. tom: we will have more coming up. francine: this is why people voted for trump, right? trying to fix a problem. you're saying he is fixing it badly and focusing on the bad things or he is going about of the runway. deal with this unhappiness or this uneasiness that we clearly saw in the american people to give them something better? >> we would have rich people pay taxes and we would have poor people on health care. that is simple. we would tell the truth in this

country, that the rich have never had it that are. they have never had more money. they have never had more rise of income and they should do something for our society. what he is doing is exactly the opposite. he has given every single position in this in ministration to goldman sachs so they could cut taxes at the top. it is a heist. francine: but he was voted on that platform, right? >> but it is a bait and switch. a complete bait and switch. he said "i will fight wall street and then he gave every top administration to one company. we have to tell the truth about what is happening in this country. it is dramatic, a war on the poor. francine: but do you actually admit that a lot of people in the u.s. voted for president trump because he was going to deregulate? >> no. francine: i'm not saying it is bad or wrong but this is what people voted for.

>> they voted for him because he made promises to them. and he is lying. losedid secretary clinton this election because she didn't go after midwest democrats who are more conservative than the east coast liberals like you? >> she lost the election because she was a lousy candidate and she didn't have a position that people trusted. donald trump said "i am going to help you." what he is doing is helping his billionaire buddies. it is obvious. as long as we look at what he is really doing, don't watch what he tweets but watch what he is doing. tom: god, i feel miserable. we will talk happiness. i just had a nightmare thought. jeffrey sachs playing golf with donald trump. >> that would be quite a round. francine: to say the least. tom: we will continue with jeffrey sachs. with theils

fed.apolis president test re: worried about gdp. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg surveillance. i am taylor let's get bloomberg business flash. deutsche bank plans to raise $8.86 billion by selling stock in a 35% discount. it is trying to shore up its finances and increase growth. deutsche bank existing shareholders will be able to buy one new share for each two they hold. ubs says it will face trial in a tax fraud case in france. they said it was very pessimistic about reaching a settlement in the case.

tom: melting pot of america and a few other select countries, russia and others that are far from the melting pot. all of that is calculated into the happiness report for is -- really? but in the united kingdom is taken very seriously with the leadership of john hallowell. with us, jeffrey sachs. responsehe number one from president trump and 87% of america. you can't compare denmark with the united states, can you? >> you can't because the danes are happy and the americans are not. tom: but it is not the same

nation. >> it is not the same nation but we are slight. tom: our vector is moving now. >> we are going down. tom: what is the key observation? >> 10 years ago we were fourth in the high income world. this time, we are 21st in the high-end world. tom: did we lose it on wage? or the crime? on trust int government and on trust in each other. we are a nastier society, we are not helping each other. even the giving part of america is going down. it has become a surly, nasty place and it is showing in the declining happiness. this is quite a drama. the countries of the top this year are norway, denmark, iceland, switzerland, the netherlands, canada way up there. but the united states in freefall.

francine: what follows what? does happiness lead to better gdp or does gdp lead to more happiness? >> the bottom line is, how do we like life? u.s. gdp is not a problem. the u.s. gdp is at an all-time high. we have had economic growth. we have incredible wealth at the top. but the society is not doing well. the question is, what are we after? are we after a gdp number? or are we after being a happy country and a decent country? we're losing that part. francine: but how do you fix it? is it education? one of the drum was in the united states is the collapse of trust in government. our politicians are liars. our politicians are on the take. so american people say our political system is rigged. is, unfortunately. it is billionaires day and night and it is money day and night and it is lobbying day and night

and it is not the wishes of the american people. so fixing government is the first thing. the supreme court did a job on america with citizens united. it is a major factor in the decline. second is, you help kids in the working-class get out of their struggle by helping them get an education. our biggest divide in the united states is those with a college degree and those without. and in the society without a college degree -- tom: help us with the philosophy underlying these institutions. i am thinking john hallowell at the university of british columbia. lockean construct, our philosophy professor is different from their philosophy.

>> look what it is doing for our lives when we say it is all struggle and all competition rather than saying we should live together in a decent place. but you are right. we have the wrong idea. the idea we are told all the rand idea. ayn you don't help anybody, you help the poor they are moochers. that is the nastiest. it is really dangerous and it is showing up as a non-hatchery -- unhappy country. tom: is this the idea of the decade change as well? let's go back with her as her shacks joining us now. joining us next, komal sri-kumar. look at the data. we haven't seen the growth yet. chair yellen, maybe a little bit out front. this is bloomberg.

>> we believe in free trade. we are one of the largest markets in the world. one of the largest trading partners in the world. trade has been good for us and good for other people. having said that, we want to re-examine certain agreements. francine: u.s. treasury secretary there, steve mnuchin speaking at the g-20. it concluded with a communique that dropped his previous reference to resist all forms of protection. joining us now is komal sri-kumar, and jeffrey sachs.

i want to get back to what we heard from steve mnuchin, going back toward your happiness report. what does china look like? drive or try to drive social enhancement, which the u.s. used to? >> china is doing well. i was there this past week. they are really gearing up technologically. : 2025 editionhina " is targeting every major cutting-edge technology. they are going to be world leaders. ,hey got sensible policies moving in the right direction and they are watching the united states with amazement because i think the u.s. is just handing leadership over to china with the multilateral system. francine: what will that relationship look like? >> i think it is going to go into further changes.

statement --chin's the chinese are clearly for free trade and may have trade surpluses with the united states which the trumpet ministration does not approve of. but i think they are going to need other trade agreements. for instance, china with germany and china with the european countries. the risk that we run in the united states is that other countries have agreements and the u.s. has stepped out of it. tom: one of thetom: great things about foreign relations and international relations is we can appreciate a vacuum. jeffrey sachs has done that. treatmentmodern-day of, if we remove ourselves from the foreign debate and that occurs, who will fill it? >> we are seeing it already with china and europe getting closer

and closer together. the diplomatic, the financial, the economic and geopolitical relations are clear. everyone is looking at trump and saying "this man is just unstable." tom: with gdp, take the international relations and international economics unfolded on a factor of gdp. does it dampen u.s. gdp? >> it dampens u.s. gdp to begin with. first of all, u.s. exports are going to be hurt, especially if you have trade retaliation by other countries. after the weakened -- the weekend conversation with president trump and chancellor merkel in washington and the g-20 meeting in germany, you see underneath, some of the retaliation starting to take form. the second way is global gdp as a whole gets depressed if global trade is reduced and the u.s. being a part of that --

first.e final question the idea here of what the senate your advice what is to republicans in the senate and how they are responding to this president? see thatk they have to ande hard-line ideologues the twitter mania of the president in the middle of the night ill suits the united states. we need to be a serious country and debate step-by-step with this craziness. we are going to have serious trouble. >> thank you so much on that happiness report. ♪

>> it is not sunny any longer in berlin. brandenburg gate tweeted angela merkel over at the white house.

she was back in berlin. a lot of the paces -- the papers were writing about her frosty relationship with donald trump after that certainly frosty meeting at the white house on friday. more on that, you can see the attacks. now to the bloomberg first word news, here is taylor riggs. >> in the u.s. the house intelligence committee will question fbi director james comey about president trump's claims that barack obama wiretapped him during the campaign. comey says he has seen no evidence to back up the president's claims. he will testify about russian meddling in the election. scotland's leader says it is not reasonable to make scott's wait until 2021 for another vote on independence. they accused british prime minister theresa may of being intransigent on the issue. she is negotiating for the u.k. to leave the eu. they say a vote in two years will be a fair compromise. the leaders of germany and japan have called for a concerted effort to defend free trade.

angela merkel and shinzo abe are advocating a trade deal between japan and the european union. they say it would underscore the benefits of an interconnected global economy. and in asia, u.s. secretary of state rex tillerson used a 24 hour trip to beijing to reassure chinese leaders about the trump administration. after meeting with china's president, he echoed china's phrasing. he promised not conflict and mutual respect. he and president trump are affected to meet next month. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. komal sri-kumar with us right now. boy is this well-timed. with the council on foreign relations, truly one of our nation's thinkers, on national security. what a week it has been. you were scathing about the

president and the human death of the navy seal. what is your counsel to the write the diplomatic ship of republicans? some point the house foreign affairs committee and the house armed services committee needs to conduct oversight hearings with the cabinet members that president trump has appointed because there has been a clear mismatch on the rhetoric you hear from president trump's twitter feed and from some of his senior political leaders. and what his secretary of state and defense are doing. tom: where is senator fulbright? there was a senator from arkansas, senator fulbright and he was gospel. does he have power at the committee level? >> the only person who conserve that is john mccain. if he cares to the oversight hearings, to dig down on why we are sending 1000 troops into northern syria today, what is the and ministrations plan to roll back north korea's nuclear weapons program which secretary

tillerson announced? some of you have to find out what the actual policies? francine: it hasn't even met a hundred days yet. do we need more time? >> there is a gap between rhetoric and reality that takes a lot of time to sort out but this administration has not just challenged the policy initiatives of previous presidents but what they have done has called into question, made existential claims about the need for bilateral partners for nato and for cooperations with a range of allies for the international trading system. it is not about policy issues, it is fundamentally existential. how you step back from those high-level rhetorical claims is hard to know. francine: will this work? you can argue this is game theory, negotiating what will get you a better deal. nato or anything else? >> if you are going to have a better deal, you have to put

forth principles. the only print the we have heard is america first. as president said on friday, meeting with angela merkel, he , alliesting nato allies in eastern asia, to transfer money to the u.s., to wire transfer money. presidentint at the backs down and looks bad or these countries stick to their position and we are at loggerheads on a lot of different policies. tom: when you are at the state department, did you have curtains in your window? >> trust me, no windows and no access to the internet back then either. tom: nobody is in the office. me the effect of guys like you not being appointed. what is the effect on the empty corridors of state and defense? >> it is a great time if you are visiting to go to the cafe. they are full and the reason is because officers are spending most of their time trying to

wait for policy guides been seeing leadership that doesn't exist. right now there are tens of thousands of people literally waiting for people to tell them what to do because there is a gap between secretary of defense and secretary of state. tom: help me with what this means for gdp. it is a new uncertainty, not investment uncertainty or finance uncertainty, it is richard haass uncertainty. >> you have very good question there. secretary mnuchin said that a few weeks ago. the gdp growth of 3% plus that president trump has been looking is achieved, won't be until the end of 2018 at the earliest. the point that you make is that you have all of these issues between the state department, the mid to lower level people who are doing it, obviously it

means the decision to boost infrastructure spending, the decision to cut taxes, the decision to stimulate -- it is all going to be postponed. postponed until when? does that make a difference? are we expecting too much too quickly? >> i don't think we are looking for too much too quickly because what the secretary said was that he hopes the budget could be passed by august, before the recess for the congress. that may be a tough thing to achieve and if you put it off until the end of the year, beginning of next year, you may be looking at 2019 before you are looking at the growth getting anywhere close to it. that is the risk. francine: does that mean we will see a huge correction in equities? one of the things we have been trying to figure out is what is priced in and a lot of the good news and a love that is reflationary with a lot of tax cuts. we understand it is priced in when it comes to equity.

>> that is a timely question and i think equities are two high-priced and the bond is way too high when you take into account that the gdp growth is going to be postponed. what it means is that markets -- bid up equities and bid down bonds. tom: in henry kissinger's world order, my book of the year three or four or five years ago, it might as well have been written and a rut ago. era ago. does the u.s. want to address that question? do we go back to an isolationism of 1920? this administration believes that the world order is 193 separate bilateral deals. it doesn't work.

-- youd other diplomatic to, if you want them to retain the you run nuclear program or roll back the north korean nuclear program or constrain iran's influence in the middle east, you don't just trade with any other lateral nation. said, if to what mike you do bilateral trade, it could take you a long time dealing with all the countries. it is the inefficiency of time dealing with more than 100 countries altogether. that is the g-20, rather than negotiating separately with china and germany. tom: thank is a much this morning. he wants to keep going, i want to keep going, but the morning beckons. we will continue on a radio with mr. sanko. on radio as well, what a great voice from the midwest. diane swap will join us with u.s. economics.

more on the reality of investment spirits and corporations. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get this bloomberg business flash. apple ceo tim cook is betting on what he hopes is the next big thing. augmented reality. overlays images between the vision and the real world. apple has embarked on an ambitious bid to bring it to the masses. products being considered

include digital spectacles that could connect wirelessly to an iphone and beaming content to the wearer. russia has a sweet tooth. russia hopes to expand retail sales last year by double digits. the company has begun making oreo cookies in russia as well as suites that blends chocolate and crackers. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: this is unfair, you are showing me oreos at 6:42. right now we need to get to bloomberg daybreak. the good news is jonathan ferro didn't do a bracket because he knows nothing about basketball. what do you have? >> what do i have? i have the big loan. the chief of the minneapolis federal reserve. dollar bonds on the wrong footing last week. with neil gaspari himself, looking forward to the

conversation. yield showhe real you had on friday about the bond vigilantes. are they out there? >> they are out there but they are losing the war against the treasury market. expectations, the ultimate hope might be in the s&p market. i see the bond market in the same way. >> i am looking forward to it. doesn't he replace kutcher a lakota? >> they just look at things differently. it is a different show. john, thank you so much. we will be back in two hours. deutsche bank hopes to raise funds by 8 billion euros by raising stocks at a 35% discount. meaningful pickup. they expect a dip on the announcement. the lows were seen back in september.

driving is the finance managing editor with us in new york, with komal sri-kumar of global strategies. great to get you back on. what have you learned about deutsche? >> this morning it has been the focus on the language in the outlook. it presents a new strategy a new week ago. the language this morning is perhaps more cautious. the revenue outlook is pretty much flat. what that is doing, facing a potential headwind in terms of revenue and returns. francine: what is the one thing investors will want to know about deutsche bank from now on? when we find out how much and how many investors are behind the exercise? on the road for a couple of weeks. we reported that as unlikely to be touching their support. i think they will want to look at exactly how the businesses

are likely to perform. also, there is a lot of change at the top. there is quite a lot of management upheaval. -- whathese managers are these managers bringing to the table and how are they going to manage the new structure? the cfo is on the way out. looking at the next cfo, let's is in store to happen. francine: 2016 was brutal for brutal -- brutal for european banks. is 2017 better? >> you've got the economic outlook starting to be a little bit stronger but a lot of these banks such as deutsche bank still face model issues. is not so much the business environment, it is a question of the model being flawed. tom: it is a dilution today. this is something you say, dilution in german. watch my fractured german here. diluting into a question

and mystery about what the model will be. what is it going to be? >> that is a fair>> point. they are tackling the capital question. we are taking that question off the table. we can see that substantial overhaul in the strategy, seeing a reversal on a few points in the past. it is back into the corporate bank and the trading business. that is back together again. now they are going to integrate its. it is also going to be process is taking a while. tom: here is a chart from the financial crisis of deutsche bank and all of this is pre-cry and to say the least. we ran a regression here and we are right on it. there is no other way to put it. it is dilution bank and you are

wondering where we are going. help me here. >> we saw it with unicredit. if you have to raise capital and you have to fix the banks that is going to be dilution heavy until they get the business model right. what will deutsche bank look like in two or three years? >> based in what we know it is going to look like they will have a much larger presence in germany. they are seeing signs of improvement. that is just the trouble deutsche bank had. it is the domestic market where funds are very low. in an ideal scenario, those returns. . -- those returns will stop. tom: thank you so much. us.l sri-kumar is with deutsche bank, let's say they were the jpmorgan of the european union we heard about.

we argue with that but it is just amazing to have this conversation. is right. i think what you see is the impact of the financial crisis in the united states having a major impact on the u.s. in the case of europe it has been the most spread out. withis what you are seeing respect to the german banks and the italian banks. tom: very good. komal sri-kumar is coming back on his gdp. what we saw from chair yellen less week. my bracket, i am humbled. it is actually pretty good. duke, michael moore, i am sorry. villanova, kevin cirilli, go home and take the week off. here is bracket go. here is purdue. purdue beating louisville -- wait a minute, they are sold on.

would that bean, cool? that would boiler up. we will be back.

tom: dollar weaker.

but the yen is quite stronger. onto a 1.1274. 1.2416. the mexican peso is trying to get to an 18 handle. all in all, the dollars a little bit weaker. there is your foreign exchange. how about a single best chart? you can do that with komal sri-kumar. he has had the great call on tepid gdp. nobody has nailed the weakness over the last four or five years sri-kumar. there is the 1980's and 1990's -- morning in america -- and here is a challenge we had. we are sort of getting back. is believe of chair yellen working to get back to 2.38% gdp. >> i don't think it is going to happen. you see that in the atlanta gdp now forecast which has been very accurate.

for thee well above 2% first quarter growth in the early february. by early march it has gone to 1.3%. now it is 0.9%. tom: help me with our conversation with the president of minneapolis. here is a non-economist dissenting. agree with the thinking behind the cash kari. president neel kashkari is expecting an increase in risk -- in interest rates budget if he is not growing rapidly and it is not going to. if you do it because you expect inflation expectations to increase that is not happening either. just last week we found out from the bloomberg index that long-term inflationary expectation is that a low. so you don't have that pushing up bond yields either.

what you do have is this small , threee in fed rates rate increases since the financial crisis. if it further continues, that is what the fed has been unable to check. they cannot create faster growth, they cannot create higher inflation rates, so that is the problem of fed policy. tom: so you are agreeing with the underlying factors. francine: but do you agree that they shouldn't have raised rates? and it givesl hike an idea that they are ready to act and that will have an impact on the balance sheets. >> i think they should have acted but to do this ever so gradually, one point at a time does not achieve any objective. so i stick to my expectation that some three years ago they should have gone ahead and increased interest rates by one and a half percent, taken the lumps and when the markets get

expedient.s it goes with a strong export recovery. that hasn't happened in this one quarter increase in a few months is not going to do it either. it is just once a year. i think she is going to stick in 2017 as well and that is not going to increase growth. i don't know what it is supposed to achieve. least normalization is coming. is that enough? is enough toink it create normalization because normalization is probably why the federal funds rate is up one and a half percent points higher. by the time she gets to that position it will probably lead to a recession and she will have to cut rates again so you are never going to normalize that. tom: do you see any evidence of increased investment to help out economic growth? >> i don't see that happening either because we are looking

for regulatory cut tax -- cutbacks. we have not had steps taken yet. >> we will continue with him on the radio. i will do that coming up. withtoday, on daybreak jonathan ferro, david westin and alix steel. neel kashkari, a wonderful moment with the minneapolis fed. neel kashkari dissenting. it is a beautiful new york. everyone in that view has a bracket for our international audience. they are a thing you do in march that go away in five days. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> deutsche bank prices and 8 million euro share sale.

a year of flat revenue. steve mnuchin puts america first. america gets its way at the g-20 after they dropped a pledge to avoid protectionism and the federal reserve leaves dollar bulls wrongfooted. for a fourth straight day. good morning to our viewers worldwide. .elcome to bloomberg daybreak i am jonathan ferro alongside alix steel. david westin is way today. the sole dissenter of the federal reserve coming up later. alix: really excited about that, particularly his order of events. he wants a plant a pair the balance sheet and then a market reaction and then maybe a hike. jon: you just want a different set up to the f-150. alix: at 9:00 a.m. eastern, neel kashkari will be joining us. jon: in the markets, we squeezed out a week of gains. for the s&p 500, kicking things