tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg April 4, 2017 1:00am-2:30am EDT
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anna: sudan slowdown. u.s. auto sales slow as demand plummets. the waves in asian equity trading. manus: the cabinet purge, south africa loses its investment grade credit rating. the rand falls for the seventh straight day. anna: and ahead of his first face-to-face meeting with president trump, china's xi jingping is in helsinki. meanwhile, the chairman of the bank of england is in india, laying the groundwork for a post-brexit world.
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a very warm welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe," our flagship morning show. i'm anna edwards. manus: i'm manus cranny. is this a warning sign? this isre so passe, but the relationship between auto sales of the united states of america and the s&p 500, and they are virtually lockstep. but that relationship looks as if it could be just beginning to turn. should we get alarmed at the fact that auto sales have dropped, and still the s&p 500 careers higher? car sales slumped to the lowest level in two years. if you believe it will close the gap, one of them is going to aove, and that could mean 10% drawdown. is it a warning shot? anna: does the s&p fall, did car sales bounce? is that something in the past,
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and other other indicators? is the sector not offering what they want to buy? let's have a look at the radar risk. this is something that was a feature of the trading day. in particular in japan, some of the auto sectors were week. weakness in the u.s. auto sales, strengthen the yen, the has an impact. asia-pacific down. manus: when you look at dollar-yen, is yen strength sustainable? morgan stanley says no. they say a global risk sentiment has become less influential on dollar-yen based on their analysis. risk off, yen goes higher, but they would say that old relationship doesn't necessarily hold for. anna: let's have a look at other currencies in the mix. we have the australian dollar on the radar. no change in interest rates from the rba. of course the australian dollar there wasnd
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something for everybody in the commentary. because of the lack of concrete guidance, you could make the case for a hike or cut after this, based on the labor market comments they made or the comments around inflation. keeping an eye on the russian ruble as well, steady after the tragic events in saint petersburg. manus: indeed. let's get to deborah ma, standing by with your first word news. good day. deborah: manus, in russia, an explosion of the st. petersburg metro has killed at least 11 people and injured dozens more. security officials say a homemade device blew up a train between two stations not far from the hermitage museum. police say they found and defused a larger bomb at another station.
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president trump described the attack as terrible and offered condolences. the south african rand has hit january lows against the u.s. dollar after s&p global ratings downgraded the country to junk for the first time in 17 years. it cut the foreign currency ratings to dd+ with a negative outlook following jacob zuma's cabinet purge. policy continuity is at risk after the finance minister was replaced, who has no financial or business experience . in the u.s., new immigration rules are making it harder for companies to take foreign workers to the u.s. with the h-1b visa process. saidmemo yesterday, ice the new measures are aimed at to combat what it calls fraud and abuse in the programs. senate democrats have set the stage for confrontation,
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assembling enough votes to block president trump's supreme court nominee. that came as a republican advance the nomination and the judiciary committee, clearing the way for his consideration on the senate floor. majority leader mitch mcconnell has said gorsuch will be confirmed, one way or another this week. the head of the international monetary fund has called on countries around the world, including the u.s., to be clear about their economic policies. speaking lagarde was at the american enterprise institute about global productivity growth. >> concurrent investments and risk-taking, governments need to give clear signals about future economic policies. high quality investment in education and training, research and development, and infrastructure could help provide those signals. deborah: the u.k.'s trade secretary says asia-pacific has become the most important region in terms of global economy.
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leon fox made the comments on a visit to the philippines to talk trade and investment. he is looking for opportunities for british businesses outside the european union as the country prepares to leave the bloc. >> asia-pacific is the center of gravity of the global economy. there are an norm us opportunities -- there are enormous opportunities here in terms of export and investment moving in both directions. we want to see how we can expand u.k. exports, which are too low, and we have to get them going up in both goods and services. deborah: global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . i'm deborah now, this is bloomberg. anna: thank you. let's check out the asian session with more details. juliette saly has them for us. that story in the united states,
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moving into the asian session as well. juliette: yes, it certainly did. we saw some weakness coming through in mazda shares today, down by about 4% in the tokyo session. there is also weakness coming through from toshiba. let's get a look at the broader market picture. you have seen some very solid moves through the philippines 1.2%, as we saw foreign inflows coming through into the market, about $12.9 billion. the nikkei under pressure, down by about 1%. a lot of asian markets were closed today. having a look at the other stocks, toshiba down by 9%. oes onontinues its w reports that it may need more financing after chapter 11 was filed last week. but you didn't see some upside, new crest mining up by 3.5%. the other story of the day was
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the rba leaving the cash rate -- leavinon hold. this yellow line here is household finances, debt to income. it continues to rise. we are also seeing the house price index rising. but at the same time the number of people in unoccupied dwellings are falling. they are caught between a rock and a hard place with low inflation and stagnant wage growth. we will be hearing from the governor in melbourne later today. manus: juliette, thank you. the very latest on the market. let's talk about one of the drivers behind the shift in the u.s. we're supposed to be the month of the auto sales rebounding, but instead we saw the opposite, with demand collapsing last month. deliveries for kia and hyundai slumped, ford drops more than 7%. anna: g.m., fiat chrysler, and
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failed to meet expectations, and that passed through into the asian session. we are joined by tim hayward. good to see you, tim. one of the things that stood out for you, and caught my eye also reading around this car story, is the fact that tesla has a bigger market caps on ford. what does this love and car sales tell us? does it tell us the u.s. consumer is falling off a cliff, or that u.s. carmakers are not making the types of cars people want to buy? >> i think it shows there has been a lot of confidence in u.s. data. republicans in particular are really enjoying the first few months of the presidency, but the hard data is beginning to wobble, and i think that is going to cause the trump trade to come under pressure. as for car sales, cars are
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probably worth a tenth or slightly greater compared to average house price. earlyles are perhaps an warning of weakness in the u.s. economy. manus: you mentioned the trump trade. i've got something here for you, which reflects the big themes in the trump trade. what is the tax proposal in blue. but the repatriation of dollars, you can see that almost litigious rise in the white wine. that deregulation is still the triumphant trade. but they have all dissipated. my question to you is, do you see this drawdown in markets as an opportunity to reenter, or do you want to be more specific in terms of detail before you go for a reflationary trade? >> i think it is not a time to reenter. i think the postelection, pre-inauguration moves were perhaps excessive. i mentioned the rising confidence perhaps not being matched by enough hard data, and
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it seems to be coming off the board a little bit. i think the equity market is the one that hasn't. anna: that's what we heard yesterday from bob dole, talking yesterday about how sentiment in the u.s. is one of the biggest threats to the u.s. story. sentiment in the u.s. economy has become so high, it leaves investors vulnerable. >> indeed. and it's not as if the markets are cheap by any measure. also seasonally, this is coming up for a tricky time. april, may, then the traditional summer slump.i wouldn't be chasing equities . manus: we were looking at the flow of money, and we have this graphic for you about the flow of money. this always beckons the question whether it's you and me that are left at the end. investors pulled $133 billion into passes, managed exchange created funds in the first
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quarter. that is almost double the previous record we have seen. are we just late to the party on this? what is this flow -- what does this flow tell you? >> i think active managers have often underperformed, so looking backward, it makes sense to move toward pacifiers. i'd argue that that was then, this is now. when markets begin to turn, those merger managers can move o cash, who can tie markets tend to outperform. it's more of an equity story than upon story. bond mergers tend to outperform their indices more frequently. anna: looking at bond markets and rates in the u.s., we saw last week a host of voices coming from the fomc, seemingly
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talking about when we will need a faster pace of rate hikes. what is your base case, and how much does it matter? what's your big story, your big picture? >> i think the fed probably moves three times. i don't think it really matters whether it is three extending into next year or two would be a story, four -- somewhat less so. most fund managers cannot make money for a very short term move around the fed or interest rates. we are more interested in bonds and equities, which have a lagged effect. three times as our expectations. we had a dovish high-class time, and it will be interesting to see with the minutes of it is reinforced. -- looking at the
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curve, we are seeing a real flatness. morgan stanley saying the curve will stay. wells fargo says it will flatten. this is the narrowest it has been for quite some time. does that perpetuate -- the bond market is not that worried about inflation, is it? >> i'm going to give a third answer, which is that it will steepen in the future. when you look at this particular graph in two years, 2019, it really is incredibly low. fed were tot is the be somewhat behind the curve, and i think that's what we're going to hear with this dovish short-end rate stays low and as time passes the because starts to rise, this inflation data is quite persistent, employment is full, wages may start to rise.
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australian house prices continue to move up. if this inflation move becomes persistent, it's the back end that suffers. not immediately, . anna: who needs a chart when you can just demonstrate it? thank you very much. tim haywood. who cares what they say? coming up, doubling down on debt. the eu steps up efforts to combat its trillion euro loan problem. this is bloomberg. ♪
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all the markets are closed for public holiday, be aware of that. 6:18 in london. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. deborah: anna, thank you. u.s. auto sales came up short last month, with ford and kia leading declines, amid plunging demands for sedans. ford fell 7.2% while kia and hyundai dropped 11.2%. general motors, fiat chrysler, and others came in short of expectation. march is supposed to be when they rebound from declines in january and february. tokyo afterped in news that the struggling conglomerate will seek more funds after its westinghouse nuclear unit filed for bankruptcy. the company is to hold a lenders meeting and ask for additional assistance to cover a temporary surge in losses. the ecb estimates that about the
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need about 6.4 billion euros to bolster their balance sheets. according to people familiar with the matter it also considers them to be solvent . the ecb declined to comment. a spokesman said the italian treasury wasn't immediately available for comment. and that's your bloomberg business flash. manus: thank you. let's return to europe. stepping uprs are to deal with over $1 trillion worth of bad debt weighing down on the banks in the bloc,.the maltese government ed for action to prevent the issue from threatening financial stability and hurting growth. anna: that's according to a note circulated ahead of the finance ministers meeting this week. tim heywood is still with us. tim, we spent a lot of time talking about the political risk around europe. we talked about that with the dutch election, with the french
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election, and the busy electoral calendar. but away from that, there is the banking sector and to what extent it has been fixed since the crisis. a lot of people are still focused very much on italy. >> indeed. i think the official estimate remains substantially below market estimates in what and peels a -- in what npl's are. manus: i'll get you the italian versus europe nonperforming loan -- you are way ahead of me. anna: tim is keeping you on your toes. manus: that italian nonperforming loans. is the italian debt problem solved, we are told. >> no. it's not true. what do you need to cure growth, to cure bad loans, be it at the government level or the private
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sector level? it's growth, and that has been missing in italy for so long now. npl's have not been teared. they have not been dealt with in a capital sense or cured by incomes. no. anna: and the solution there is structural reform? particularly in italy? is that the same story we are back to? you>> you need huge amounts of capital -- says two need 6.4 billion euros, so are we going to get headlines about the amount of capital going into the banks? >> it's a persistent problem. we are going to see yet more news headlines, one bank needs were capital to deal with the npls which have not been written down to the extent they should be. manus: let's go back to the original this morning, one that we prepared earlier. this is u.s. banks versus
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european banks. there are a couple different arguments, which is the underperformance is driven by the nonperforming loans, the issue that was never dealt with, we never had the european top. but the other issue is the outperformance of the u.s., they dealt with their problems earlier, but also rising rates. does that gap close? if you are an equity investor, do you believe in the mpl issue being dealt with -- the npl issue being dealt with? >> it is more than that. margins can rise of interest rates, and the fact that interest rates have risen more in the u.s. than in europe, that gives u.s. banks more of a chance. growth is also helpful, that income flow helps more loans not falling into the nonperforming category. european growth has been
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surprisingly good. i hope to see the white line begin to rise somewhat. the blue line i think is overcooked. anna: how strong is european growth at the moment? we got pmi data out yesterday, very strong for germany. i was speaking to a guest from ubs who was doubtful about what that translated into. didn't buy into that. how strong do you think is the european story? >> it has been year after year, the european expectations have been more than met, and u.s. expectations have not been met. there is economic parity between germany and the u.s. with growth. why isn't there parity in bond prices? i think that's a great opportunity. europe is not cratering the way some naysayers would have it, and it is performing steadily. the credit impulse is
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impressive. anna: what opportunity does that provide? >> as of yesterday, german short-term bond yields fell again in terms of yield, increasingly negative. in the u.s. there a little bit of bond momentum building. we talked about a range of 2.3, 2.6. we're now toward the bottom of that. i think there's an argument to be long the long bond and short-term in europe. manus: this is the flow of money ino europe, 1.5 billion came in the last week, according to bank of america merrill lynch's survey. nearly 2 billion came out of the u.s. are you mirroring that? are you reflecting that in terms of the structural moves you make? sorry, european equity managers are optimistic right now. is of the reasons this works
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that the euro actually stops falling, and there is a real argument that this growth provides a persistent, modest growth, powering the euro ahead versus things like asian currencies. anna: do you think it is going -- it is almost entirely flat this morning, the euro against the dollar. this is your bond strategy. >> i think the equity flows and currency movers do matter. most equity managers do not hedge their currencies. bonds tend to separate from the currency. my point is that if the euro actually starts to rise, these political major concerns turnout not to be quite as bad as we had hoped. it may not help one day to the next, but by the end of the year the euro could be higher. anna: tim heywood at gam. a quick word on what lies ahead. we've got to talk about a junk
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and heough on terrorism and trump had a conversation where they pledged to fight to crackd he offers down on incidents and russia has been worried about backlash a willecent years and they look for a follow up. measures andne new he will be careful to not exacerbate the tensions in society. >> thank you.
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is available on your mobile. this is our cover story. you have the meltdown in moody's and fitch are considering what they do. lowest in three if it and the question is this isved christ and long losing streak. >> we will have more of a conversation in the french presidential candidate had another debate today and was desperate to revive the
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appreciate you joining us. currency. a you talk about the and the concern is the value. diverges?e road that >> we have reached the critical juncture and dennis likely the there will be a degradation that accelerate it will call into quo and and previouslyry some percent institutions. saysu look at what this
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is a significant hit. >> will talk about some scenario planning. where thebout investors will be positioned and , in happens, going forward thes of yield and complexion of the ownership structure. you look at the yield and this was yielding 6%. we would still say we are a better investment grade, but
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there has been talk of there isence votes and this to make the right decisions. hereank you for joining us from johannesburg. you have been listening to the conversation and looking at this. about.to what sean talks is this hopeful thinking? >> last year was about interest fact that brazil has rallied helps south africa. rallied and mexico
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that it stands out inh a yield being attractive a global sense. >> you mentioned the emerging markets. andthink the fed is hiking that is interesting, as a change differentd a landscape. >> there was a time where the economy was in pressure and they were improving. and there areigh and thegative yields real yield story is not impressive.
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they may stabilize here and it is a better return. >> great news. good to get your thoughts. remember, a bloomberg customer can watch everything. click on this. it is live television like you have never seen before. >> you will get the video function and all of the charts that we run. you can send a message to the producers of the show. >> coming up, the president takes a scenic route to florida. more on this tour ahead of the summit. that is next on bloomberg.
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>> welcome back. the futures suggest they will be we willt the start and see how the equity story translates. let's get the bloomberg is this flash. estimates they need 6.4 billion euros to bolster the balance sheet. thesere also considering lenders to be solvent. was not of the treasury of the immediately available. willuggling conglomerate
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-- nhk, they will hold a lenders meeting and ask for additional expenses to cover losses. auto sales came up short. they failed to meet the demand for impact. motors came in short of expectations. in january and february. test what is more viable band for. the firm of the elon musk analyst in excess of estimates. they said that there was stormy tville.in short
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chinese leader will stop about thealk commercial and diplomatic ties. this.have the details of expect alike he can warmer welcome than some of the donald trump tweets might suggest. >> yes. it has been a wild since the chinese president has visited. there has been reports that the that thisnister said will be the first visit this year and that it shows the
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ec the global trade rebounding ath high commodity prices and global commodity consumer. >> there is something stronger there and this is happening at a global level. we were wondering and it is a global story across the developed markets and is coming across. really supported by the strong earnings growth and we are seeing it coming through and and wekdrop is benign are looking forward to this. it was strong with global asset management coming in and money
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that put you off? have weakened numbers coming through and that ties into what we see. something has to give. >> yes. europe andan and there is the region that needs i be taken into account and look at the european equities and we have seen this. up.e will pick that stay with us. and we sawrading up
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welcome to our flagship morning show. i am manus cranny. >> retail sales came in and in the pretax profits had a lot of focus on the international breakdown. 43% in thecounts for up, when we look at what happens to the pound. looks at products theit is interesting to see geography of the business impacting.
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sales, wef the retail thisprogress hold back by and it is a point about the investment happening and we will watch that in the open. in and the london top of your screen has the levels in two years. underto companies are pressure. should you draw a relationship? if you do, we're looking at a correction.
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ae futures are struggling for clear direction. look at thee a asian equity session. the numbers and it is 1% and theyer of did not have quite the full complement. is closed.e market the data is out of the u.s.. >> the dollar yen strength is not sustainable. that's and the risk sentiment becomes less influential on the sensitivity
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analysis. are unchanged. if you are a job seeker, you have this, versus the mortgage rocking with is prices. is according to the source market. just giving you closing rba didn't and the change the rates for the moment with the equity markets down. we will get a word on the bond markets. and its check the fields on germanhrough
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or twoand is just a tick slower. told vladimir putin that he has the full support of united states government. blew up between two stations. found and say they stopped a larger bomb at another station. lows against the u.s. dollar after the smp downgraded the rating. currencythe foreign rating with the negative outlook . the s&p says that the policy
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continuity is at risk and replaced him with -- no financial experience. process. visa a memo was issued yesterday near they said that measures were meant to combat the abuse and the program. there was a split in new york trading. senate democrats have set the stage for the confrontation, blocking trumps votes for nominee. that came as they cleared the way for his consideration on the senate floor. they said he will be confirmed one-way or another. the head of the international monetary fund has called on
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countries around the world to be clear an economic policies. christine lagarde spoke about global productivity growth. givee government needs to and the him for structure, including in this provide could help signals. says thatde secretary asia-pacific is the most important for the economy and the comments were made on the trade and investment. he's looking for her the opportunities, as the country -- leave theead block. there are enormous opportunities here, in terms of exports. movinghere is investment
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and we are looking to see how to we willthe exports and look at these services. >> global news is powered by 2600 journalists and analysts. you can find more stories. just check our markets and you can see the nikkei is off. we have seen the stronger yen play into today and you have generally been seeing this off rate on hold today. coming down on this close and reporting this in march with
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if you look at the earnings, and this is coming through with those following and you have the global investors doing this across the active and passive seen thes and we have significant rebound. yet, but have not seen that. outflow and i look at the believe there is more space to go. >> you can always say the flows are bigger. the point of the
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countries -- companies. to fore are they going that? with still oil companies incomes and dividends? strategies remain popular. there are investors at the end with arisk spectrum and these arelds questions, in terms of what happens with the exposures. with the high yields, we see see i yieldsnd we trend and it will
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remain interesting and you will need to be able to stomach the last few days. the search is going to continue in the future. >> thank you for joining us. we have a couple of things to check. we have the dollar rand moving and it is a terribly performing currency. south africa was dropped to junk. 13.8691.like >> let's have a quick break here. we will haven and part of the energy
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>> view are looking at a live shot of berlin. we just talked about what to do with european equities and this is coming back, according to the international -- estimates they will need 6.4 billion euros to bolster this. the struggling italian lenders are considered to be solvent. italiann for the treasury were not immediately available for comment. toshiba shares have slumped
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again after reports of more funds. nhk, the company will hold a lenders meeting and ask for assistance. amountles came up short heavy incentives failed to meet the demands. hyundai combined to drop . march was supposed to be one sales rebounded. meanwhile, tesla is more valuable than ford. after soared yesterday shipments of vehicles exceeded the analysts estimates.
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coca-cola is trying to cap was in the most famous investor. hathaway had $17 billion. buffett is a heavy user and says that he drinks about five cans a day. that is your business flash. >> thank you. let's turn to the energy markets. names inhe biggest energy have been discussing challenges in the sector. offering cheaper prices to still
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you are a norwegian country -- company and gas prices are important for revenue. do you think the business model is threatened or do you think it will be complementary? >> there will be more energy will replaceat pipeline gas in the years to come. mitsubishi has mentioned that it had discussions about requiring a provider like yourself.
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do you see your company is a takeover target? a number of companies are looking to enter the market and -- thank you for joining us with your take on the market and all things. suggest this will be weaker at the start of the trading day. is on the story dollar rand and you chief and. we have those rates and there is
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boom baby! rated pg-13. [ screams ] ♪ guy: tuesday morning, welcome to "bloomberg markets." your first track of the cash session. i am guy johnson in london. matt miller is in berlin. u.s. car demand collapses causing stocks to swerve stateside. a warning sign for global equities. s.a.t.'s rating goes south. what has happened is "catastrophic." france debat
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