tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg April 21, 2017 8:00pm-9:01pm EDT
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♪ host: coming up on "bloomberg best." the stories that shook the weight -- the week in business around the world. as a new election looms in the u k and referendum reverberating in turkey. >> the biggest change to the constitution cents the formation of the republic 93 years ago. host: investors wondering what is next for the central banks. we offer insight. >> the inflation mandate we will have to watch closely. >> the strategy of going gradual is one i have supported. >> the basic trend was to present it in a gradual manner. host: danger lurking ahead for
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markets. >> we could add just 5% or 10% from here. host: big banks with their earnings reports. >> so many asking the same question, what happened? host: it is straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ host: hello, welcome. this is "bloomberg best." the weekly review of the most important business news, analysis and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. we will start with a look at top headlines. the week began with promising data from china. ♪ economy accelerating for the second straight quarter, we saw investment, retail sales, all coming in above estimates for march. >> strong numbers out of
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beijing. it looks like that. >> the 6.9% number for the first uptick inhe biggest china since the fourth quarter of 2015. economists saying this has been supported by investments, also property sales. the real estate sector playing a strong role. and other numbers, retail numbers, those beating estimates and it points to consumer confidence and suggests that concerns that the auto section would drive down that number as a result of the cap fight for smaller vehicles is not coming into play with as much force as some feared. >> the turkish president has claimed a victory in the referendum over the weekend, sweeping through the government. now voters narrowly backing the plans to give him wide-ranging powers and he has warned opponents to expect change. >> this is adding an amendment
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to the constitution, the biggest change to the constitution since the formation of the republic 93 years ago and it will include things like letting him lead the akp again and to appoint ministers, dismiss judges and also the opportunity to stay in power through 2020, so the question becomes, what reforms can the administration and act going forward -- enact going forward? little clarity in the economic policy of the government. host: and a relief rally in turkey, in a political uncertainty. looking at the government system, it has been settled. he is back to monday and -- t agenda, and it would include reforms. >> they consider it a good thing? >> they definitely think it is a good thing.
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we have had political instability in turkey and the lira has underperformed dramatically, as most emerging assets have done well. >> we think the incentives are for him to promote a time of economic stability, to continue to get the economy to grow. ♪ >> the u.k. prime minister theresa may calling for a snap election to be held in june, to potentially get extra backing for brexit. the announcement comes less than one month after she triggered the exit process. why today, why now? . there is -- >> there is a summit happening between the u.k. and the eu on june 22. and many people say that theresa may is doing this to strengthen her hand going into the brexit negotiations. she is doing well, the party is doing well in terms of polls, the latest putting her 20 points
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ahead of the opposition labor party, but her reasoning for doing it now was she is getting opposition to her plans, among lawmakers, so what she wants is really to have a strong mandate to go ahead with her plans for brexit. host: and goldman sachs is down 4% after earnings come out this morning. a shortfall and long trading revenue in contrast with reports from bigger competitors. bank of america saying they are trading in a decline. many expected goldman sachs to do better. why did not? >> many analysts are asking questions. really what we got is what did not happen, commodities were not strong, currencies were not strong and mortgages did well, but we do not understand exactly at the what went badly and he contrasted the bank of america were they said these things are
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all the things doing well, mortgages, special situations, again trying to figure out if bank of america did well on that, why didn't goldman? >> morgan stanley did better than predicted in the first quarter with fixed income trading beating goldman sachs, this is a good report. what are we missing? >> it is. as far as fixed income goes, coming in better than goldman, about a third time it has happened on a quarterly basis over the last decade. with those numbers we are looking at. equities trading which is more important for morgan stanley, doing well. the other thing important for morgan stanley is the margins, that has been a key goal for them, coming in better than expectations. >> morgan stanley with an increase in revenues year-over-year. you have to remember that for morgan stanley, the fixed income has been the albatross.
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may havehey look like turned it around. ♪ host: we will go to the white house where the president is issuing a memorandum on the investigation of steel. -- steel imports. >> for decades americans have lost their jobs and factories to unfair foreign trade. one steel mill after another has been shut down, abandoned, and closed and we will reverse that. >> that was played back of the president signing a memorandum authorizing the expedition of an investigation into whether still imports are hindering national security, so what does this have to do with dumping? this investigation? >> we heard it right there, the president saying this has nothing to do with china, but the chinese think this is a signal to them in terms of the ongoing trade negotiations that are underway.
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he is giving warning two countries involved in the steel industry and saying we will investigate you and take a look at you and it also gives political clout to many of the top executives from steel companies who were at the white house, talking with the president. it gives them a moment so to speak as they go back out to their companies. ♪ >> president trump signs one executive order and to memos dealing with financial revelation and taxes at the treasury department, he says the treasury secretary -- has asked the treasury secretary to look at the dodd-frank act and report back on ways to improve that document. >> the treasury secretary talking to reporters, telling them what will happen. he will be signing a negative orders instructing lawmakers and the federal government to review dodd-frank, he is also going to pay particular interest to orderly -- the liquidation
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authorities. whether large financial institutions are going to pose any systemic risk to the larger economy as a whole. this becomes a part of it. republicans argue dodd-frank is too big to fail and democrats argue that it prevents too big to fail. i asked the treasury secretary just how regulatory reform fit into this administration's plans to roll back dodd-frank? >> let me make it clear, the president is absolutely committed to making sure that taxpayers are not at risk for government bailouts of entities that are too big to fail. ♪ fink still ahead, larry has words of warning for the markets and bill gates hopes donald trump will be a pragmatist when it comes to health care spending and we have earnings reports to review, and
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♪ host: this is "bloomberg best." let's continue our global tour of the week's top business stories and silicon valley. looking at a major redesign of an important product. >> apple is planning their most extensive iphone lineup today, in addition to upgrading the current models they are testing a completely new revamped iphone for the 10th anniversary. >> a bunch of new iphone stuff
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starting with three new models. one will be an overhaul, apple is testing stainless steel and a bigger display, better displays and better cameras for this 10th anniversary upgrade. >> and it comes at a critical time, not only for apple but it is looking over its shoulder at samsung, is it not? >> absolutely. samsung is coming out with a new phone and it has been recognized as a hit, even before the release. it has new features. so apple will really be going up against this new phone. >> the president says to be planning to nominate a new candidate for the top regulatory post at the fed. he worked during the bush administration and is the director of a private equity firm. >> the nomination is the most important nomination in the banking industry by the trump administration. i think the short checklist for many investors, is this somebody
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that will add additional regulations, someone that will increase the nature, who will make the stress test tougher and more qualitative? i think the answer is probably, no credit as long as you do not have those negatives, it reflects the pendulum shifting from tough regulations to more neutral regulations at a minimum. >> the president taking action on the visa program, one used by the tech industry. he has signed an executive order to review the visa programs to favor highly paid applicants. >> the idea is to shift the visas away from the sort of lower skill, less well-paid jobs to jobs that really are high skill and that you cannot find in an american worker. >> what is interesting, it seems the white house is asking for help from certain agencies, for their ideas on how to make this more targeted. >> yes, the executive order does
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not order them to do anything, all it does is start the process of what any large organization would do, to say, we have this goal, where are good ideas on how to achieve it? this is something that will take probably months, probably not until next year until you see an impact on this. >> the international monetary fund says global recovery is gaining momentum, they are raising their gdp forecast for this year to 3.5% and predict a pickup for 2018. the fund left to their u.s. forecast unchanged at 2.3% and 2.5% respectively. it seems this take on the u.s. is wait and see, and that as we can see for everybody else as well. >> but at a good level. they are still forecasting the u.s. to be firmly in the 2%-two .5% annual growth range. one of the real takeaways is not
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so much the warning about protectionism, because they have to do that, it is more the optimistic picture about the world. japan upgraded, china upgraded, and the post-brexit u.k. upgraded as well. higher in is trading one market, coming after the ceo told bloomberg that he would take a phone call from a content provider for a possible merger and that could reset their course. this is an odd way to go about matchmaking. if anybody wants to call me. [no audio] they are doing really well and i think verizon realizes that maybe shareholders want to see them do something. some of the speculation out there around rising from a charter a couple months ago,
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shareholders did not like that but maybe comcast or disney or he is throwing it out there to see how investors receive that. >> fox news has announced the departure of bill o'reilly, bringing an end to the host's to decade run at the network, what does it mean? >> in itself, the show is an important show, the highest rated show and it generates the most revenue, but only 1% of the company's revenue stream, so not that big. when you take a look at the cable network business for the 21st century fox come in, the cable network business, which there are many, is about 80% of the operating income for the entire companies, so fox news has lost a lot of primetime talent over the last six months, not to mention roger ailes. now over riley -- now o'reilly. and it is an odd time for fox
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because we are coming into the season where the tv networks go to the advertisers in may and to say this is what we will give you next season and if you are an advertiser you can, maybe i will step back to see how the ratings play out on the fox network. japan ending the first quarter on a strong note. we saw the export and import numbers were beating expectations in march. it was a expected that these numbers would come in strong? >> i think we got the numbers would look good, but not this good. the exports were supported by shipments of auto parts and a steel and one of the big numbers is the 16% growth in exports to china, their biggest trading partner, so it was a bullish picture. there are some questions about whether it is sustainable as we get into the second half of the year. the china numbers probably just boarded -- distorted by the new year effect and other doubts on
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the horizon, but it is a bullish set of data and will support the stock market this morning. rebound today off of the highs of the session after saudi arabia signals an extension to the opec cuts. this is what the oil minister said, although there is a high level of commitment, we have not reached our goal. there was an initial agreement we could be obligated to extend to get our target, but we need to communicate with all of the countries, we talk, but we did not talk to everybody. how much will we see of this over the next month? >> quite a lot. in the market, until we get to the final deal and we get to see mechanisms pute in place, we need to see that. i'm sure it will be -- as it -- we will say
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that with opec. purchased for about $20 a share in cash. stocks trading $14. surging 11% to about $19 on news of the deal. irtu.hares jumping for v let's talk about the trend in the marketplace that make this the right time to do this. >> more efficiency in the market with less volatility, so putting pressure on the margins. and kgb has a wonderful consumer franchise. a very efficient market structure, and combining those we think we look at the best of both. smartphonenewest hitting south korea and the u.s. on friday and the company says preorders for the galaxy s8 and plus have surpassed one million
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units setting a new record. did you think -- do you think the success will be big enough so that people forget about the exploding phones from samsung? >> i think they will. and they will not make this a mistake twice. this will be 21% bigger and i think that will be a selling point. consumers have short memories. you get a phone 21% bigger the same price, they will quickly gravitate toward that. ♪
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signs for the economy and he told bloomberg that lackluster growth in the u.s. and uncertainty around the trump administration pose a risk to markets. larry: earnings season is probably the most important issue for the markets today. i would -- the marketplace had higher expectations on quick actions and of our government related to tax reform, and thenstructure, and deregulation, so those are the three things the marketplace looks for and it will take obviously more time. and so, if we do not have earnings validating these higher pe's, and we could add just andward 5%-10% from here, if the administration does succeed in these items, then the market will reassert itself higher. >> you make it seem as though the u.s. stocks have nowhere to go but down, unless --
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larry: i didn't -- >> unless it is a validating picture. larry: it has to be validated. if it is not validated, it goes negative. i do not look at that differently at any other time. the pe's are really high on a relative basis, and u.s. equities are higher than europe and asia, so it has to be validated one way or another. we have had, since the third quarter, global growth. the slowest economy in the world, or in the g7 is the u.s. you are seeing china growing much faster, remember a year ago we were worried that china was going into a recession, they are growing close to 7% right now. we were worried about japan, they will have positive growth. spain growing around 3%.
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france growing above 1%. and you have candida. here we are worried about -- canada. here we are worried about north america. canada growing over 2.5%. the market has been validated by a synchronized global growth, it was not just the election era. more importantly now, for the market to have another leg up, we need to see validation of these policies from the trump administration and we need to have validation from the earnings. my worry is that it will be a harder picture. we sense that there is more uncertainty, and because there is uncertainty related to tax reform and timing of deregulation, we see more and more businesses holding back. you are starting to see it in different numbers, so i would say that there is warning signs here that are getting darker, because we have seen pullback,
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you see it in car sales, you see it, you are actually starting to see a slowdown now in m and a. things now, people are taking a pause, valuations are high. uncertainty of tax reform is going down. >> also you have 2.2% on the 10 year. larry; that is one thing i have been calling. >> how low do we go on the 10 year yield? larry: i believe there is a 51% probability that the 10 year treasury could go below 2%. host: coming up, more of the week's conversations with global leaders in business, politics and policy. the canadian prime minister in japan. and bill gates, who intends to bring his message on health care directly to donald trump. >> it means talking to him and
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♪ -- : >> i don't think that people who are promoting the tax within the congress have a fully thought through the consequences -- >> is this a scenario where donald trump may have overreached? think, i think that the trump ising president that he made a promise to do things that were good for the middle class and he was going to help people who felt they were not part of the economic success of the country, and killing jobs borders isthickening
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not something that donald trump is interested in. host: that was the canadian prime minister in conversation with bloomberg's john micklethwait. you will see more of that interview in the coming weeks. another special guest this week was bill gates, who sat down for an exclusive interview. he spoke about the urgent need to maintain spending on health care and whether it will happen under president trump. proponent thatg innovation and health, even getting the health systems around the world to be decent enough so that as pandemics develop you see them early, you can catch them before they get out of control. so if we understand on health -- underspend on health we
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will have an epidemic that will affect us economically and even for military activity, it will be expensive. so the balance between soft power and hard power, particularly with health crises, if there is anything that could horrifically go and kill people it would be an epidemic, so you do not want to get out of balance. >> you have been vocal and your foundation has been vocal about being troubled in the cuts with health funding. when i look at donald trump and his policies on north korea and china, what about the threatened cuts being scaled back? >> i think there is a good chance that the administrative proposals, the executive proposal, will not end up being the exact budget. there are things like the life-saving work that gets done
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that has a strong backing in the congress. andets go through congress they require enough votes in the senate that it cannot just be completely one-sided on an issue like this. i do not think large cuts will take place, although when it was first performed, -- first put four, we had to speak up and get defense communities to say that they cared about these things. >> you have had a couple meetings with him, is he a president that you folks confident with, is he a president, and you have met many of them, is he a president you can do business with? >> certainly, he is the current president, he is pragmatic on a a lot of things. it means giving him background he may not have had through his past work, it is probably as
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important with him as with anyone. >> u.s. inflation expectations took a hit and investors are scaling back their forecast of the federal reserve raising interest rates as soon as june. officials shared their thoughts on monetary policy on bloomberg television, beginning with the kansas city fed president. >> the fed seems to be divided into camps that say we can do one more, another that says we can do to more, and some even that's a there could be three more -- where are you pitching your tent? >> i am looking at normalization and cannot pin down the number today. you know for the long one where you are going and you continue to move forward watching how the economy reacts. i think the strategy of going gradual has been one i have supported. whether that means we will get 4
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moves or no more at all will be a function of how we see the outlook unfold. that is what we do at every meeting. >> you suggested if things proceed as you expect, you would be in favor of normalizing the balance sheet by the end of the year, but a number of decisions must be made on how to do that and people want to know, when would we get that announcement of how the fed is going to handle the balance sheet? >> i do not know the date. you saw that we began that discussion with the staff, helping us understand, and discussions lead to more questions, so i think we want to be thoughtful and continue to talk about what we think the implications are, what the timing would be and all of that happened in the context of how we see the economy unfolding. we have not made a decision on when, but if i think -- but i think of we continue this discussion, you will see the minutes reflecting this. >> later rather than sooner? >> i would like a nail down what
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we think about the relationship between short-term interest rates and the balance sheet, that we have to make decisions about whether that will be just a natural runoff, or whether that will be smoothing. i do not know how long it will take to figure out, but i hope we can sort that out and make a decision and tell the public what we plan to do and get on with it by the end of the year. pivoteded this year toward a faster pace of moves. anything that tells you that that could have stopped or slowed? the, thel think that three, the median of three rate increases is a good baseline. if the economy develops more slowly, then we can do less than that, if it is stronger, we can
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do more than that. i still think we are making good progress toward a employment and we do have some labor slack, but we are approaching full employment. the trickier issue is inflation and the work we are doing in dallas suggests that core inflation continues to slowly and gradually move up. excess capacity globally, particularly in china, and possibly growing because they keep investing in the excess capacity in china, and secondly technology and technology enable disruption, which is increasingly replacing people with technology, those are having downward pressure impacts on inflation, so i think the inflation mandate we will have to watch closely. but i still think having said that, three is a good baseline. me, when ie means to say we should be gradual, we
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have the ability and flexibility to wait and see how the economy unfolds, turn over some more cards, and i would say that is appropriate. exercise patience. host: one of the world's most prominent central bankers spoke with bloomberg this week. we sat down with the bank of japan -- in new york. higher -- yengoes goes had, does it hurt the inflation forecast? >> the inflation forecast is based on the assumption that rates do not move much upward or downward. depreciates, then of course inflation rate could rise. depreciates, then the
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inflation rate could decline. that is true. inflation -- ie cannot say. the inflation forecast is based on continuous improvement in the labor market, improvements in cap, which is certain, because 1.5% growth, now the economy is doing well above potential growth rate. if the market continues to tighten and prices rise -- so, i agree the inflation rate in the short run could rise, but basically we will see it , reflecting up improvement. >> you have done more than any other central bank governor to
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get rid of inflation. when we spoke six months ago. you have gone outside the toolbox, are you still confident you can achieve 2%? >> yes. >> no doubt. even if the yen goes higher? is in the, our focus sense that we would reach 2% target around fiscal 2018. it is based on the moveption that -- will not and so and so forth. it extended wait -- it depreciates and timing -- and if the exchange rate increases -- depreciates, -- appreciates, the timing could be earlier. is around 2% in the gradual manner, reflecting
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♪ host: you are watching "bloomberg best." earnings season is in full swing. we take a look at those companies reporting results, starting with an airline that needed good news. higherinental trading after hours after beating estimates in the first quarter, this comes as the airline deals with the outcry for the forceful removal of a passenger last week. it is this report that we got from united, which is pre-this incident, confirming that this airline is doing pretty good? >> we are here at generational
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highs further profitability, not as good as last year, the fuel costs a bit higher, we knew it would be that way for most of the year. but they are more profitable than they have been and investors are looking at them because of that. >> how much does brand matter? >> with airlines, people usually go for the cheapest fare possible, so in the near term i think it will affect some bookings, but long-term the passengers will really go for the cheapest fare. >> wall street continues to avenge on netflix, shares poised to open at a record with investors cheering. >> it is a mixed bag in terms of the metric people look at with subscriber growth, they missed with the numbers in the first quarter, typically that is the death knell for the stock, but the guidance they gave in the second quarter was better than expected, so offsetting each other. i think polls can step back and
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say that the consumer growth story is still intact. >> they are right in the middle of what they expected and they are burning cash for many years, i do not get what people are playing for, who cares if they go from 100 million to 200 million if they cannot make money. >> first quarter results, with revenue falling. and 2% to $18.2 billion just under expectations. the gross margins also trailing. revenue falling with the growth profit margin falling as well, so any rays of light for ibm? >> the few things i would point out is that the pretax margin actually went up and it is due to a severe cutting of sg and a. saving on expenses. a lot of headcount reduction leading to profit expansion.
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inyou look at the numbers the cloud, you see revenue growth over there. the legacy business are the ones declining and it is not enough to offset the cloud growth, the cloud growth not enough to offset the declines in the legacy business and it will take time before it lot sides where you see the cloud business and analytics taking over the decline in the legacy businesses. >> exploring the sale of a chemicals business within 12 months, as it looks to fend off the takeover approach from ppg energy. at the same time, the largest paint maker in europe returning to its shareholders in this year. they are forecasting their third straight year of record profit. >> do think this new plan unveiled today is going to satisfy shareholders, that they will no longer be calling for you to go to ppg and accept
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their offer? >> these are two companies that have distinct differences in the way that they work. the specialty chemical business is a people like business, where the paint and coding business is asset like. these two dynamics can actually drive growth and operational excellence more efficiently and therefore breaking these two into different focused companies has a value increasing affect, as you have already seen in some of the effects on the share climbs. brokerage td ameritrade maintaining their forecast for the year despite -- there trading commission. scottrade purchase scheduled to close as expected by the end of the year. talk about what parts of the integration has been completed and will be an effect for october 1? >> the teams are working well together.
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it is awkward, because we are waiting for regulatory approval, so we are competing and we have a plan to be one firm. as we get closer to the date, they are getting more detailed in their programming. we are figuring out which branches to keep of both locations, systems decisions, it is detailed at this stage >>. qualcomm reporting -- in that beat expectations. reportingritten -- revenue of $5.9 billion. even amid the ongoing battle with apple, that was discussed in the earnings report and talking about networking and internet of things. there is a clear apple effect, $1 billion of payments? >> none of the near-term results matter to be honest. it is the ongoing effective apple that is going to have an impact on qualcomm over the next four quarters and over the next two years, the litigation taking two years.
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the bigger issue is not apple. win, what does it do to the qualcomm loyalty model? that is the question. if apple is to get a better deal, when that apply to all of its assets and customers? that is a bigger issue. and if apple wins outright in the court, saying the value of the intellectual property is to be based on the value of the chip, and not on the battle of the -- as qualcomm contends, then the royalty model is broken wide open. >> we have results from two of the biggest consumer companies sales upilever with 2.9% in the first quarter, and nestle reporting a 2.3% increase in sales. we will start with nestle. the new chief executive, we have a pickup in pricing. does the revenue signal an uptick in what many call the
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sluggish food and beverage market? becausey be the start, currencies are stabilizing and raw material prices have gone up because of volatile currency moves. so you have to get that back into the pricing, although the margin structure has been blown apart. with the currencies, it is probably helping. >> when it comes the unilever, is that enough with this news today to deter a future takeover from kraft heinz? >> the results today shows why they are restructuring. it took two basis points off. biggeston is one of the declines on the dow, down more than 9% year to date after the largest wireless carrier says they lost customers in the first
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quarter. losing subscribers is just something that you cannot get over. >> yes, that is the headline, whether or not they have met expectations tell us about the company, verizon subscribers, it is the name of the game. get them and keep them and keep charging them a lot of money. the stock is based on that. dividends are based on that. so this big drop in subscribers, losing 370,000 subscribers is important in terms of direction and it represents a big change in the industry where verizon is unable to add people and are losing people because they cannot keep up with trends. >> general electric reporting profits that beat estimates for sales growth, and jet engines, given a boost after some investors were growing anxious about results. good news for the ceo. what was working out for him? >> organic growth better than expected across the board and
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oil and gas not as bad as it has been. afterturning positive some quarters were negative. so topline is better and they are accelerating. >> the part of engines really drove it? >> up like 25%, so that was big. and we have anniversaries -- it is actually apples to apples. wasink the other surprise oil and gas was not as bad as it has been, sales down 9% and they have been down 22%, so that is a good sign. ♪
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and we have the bloomberg economic surprise index on the right. >> and we have not had a lot of companies reporting earnings within the s&p 500, only 31. we know that they did beat earnings and revenue by .5%. >> there are about 30,000 functions on the bloomberg and we enjoy showing you are favorite on bloomberg television. maybe they will become your favorite. uicre is another function, q go. it will take you to where you can get fast insight into timely topics. here is a quick take from the week. >> china's president has a dream, or you could call it a pet project, he wants to revive the ancient silk road, that means trade on the route via pipelines and highways. the silk road project is
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supposed to boost development and deepen ties across asia, but critics see it as a way for china to spread influence further to the west. here is the situation. began asnal silk road a trade route from china as far as europe. silk, spices and porcelain were transported to the west. today, the president wants to use materials from the overproducing factories to improve infrastructure on the route. it comes with the development of ports in asia and highways in pakistan and to take a stand. theelp bankroll the dream, chinese government created a $40 billion silk road fund. they say that countries have signed agreement and others are cooperating on plants such as railroads and nuclear power. they are weighing the economic benefit against a dominant superpowered's -- superpowers
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demands. according to thailand, they were strings attached. mainly china demanding commercial property rights. here is the argument, china says the initiative is a way to boost industrialization in developing nations between east and west. economists agree that the initiative has the potential to stimulate global economic growth. but there are also risks, like those funds not going where they should in a region with corruption, and longshot developments turning into white elephants. there is also concern about china's assertive military, particularly in asian waters. ♪ host: that was just one of the many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them at bloomberg.com, along with the latest business news and analysis 24 hours a day. that is all for "bloomberg best." thank you for watching. this is bloomberg.
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