tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg May 5, 2017 8:00pm-9:01pm EDT
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♪ coming up on "bloomberg best," the stories that shaped the week in business around the world. meats but does not move. brexit talks take a tougher tone. and president trump tells bloomberg what is on his mind. breaking up big banks. >> we have a sense of some sort of announcement in terms of the handling of wall street. >> to money managers speak extensively about their business. >> we are looking at money coming out of active management and toward passive structure. >> give me a sense of what you learned? >> it can be expensive. >> and the milken conference bringing together who is who of
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leaders. >> it is something we are considering at treasury. would be anrica exciting place to invest. >> we did not meet expectations this quarter. >> and ben bernanke questions the timing of the trump tax cuts. >> it would have made more sense to have more spending in 2013 or 2012. >> a big miss for apple headlines the earnings reports. >> facebook with another great quarter. >> must have missed it by 50% and stock went up. >> it is all straight ahead on bloomberg best. ♪ julie: hello and welcome. i'm julie hyman. this is "bloomberg best," your weekly review of the most important interviews and analysis from around the world. on monday, president donald
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trump shared his thoughts on a number of economic issues with the bloomberg news. his comments made headlines and moved markets. with an interview bloomberg news, the president says he is willing to me with the leader of north korea. he also says he is considering breaking up the big banks. >> we are looking at it. dodd-frank is going to be very seriously changed so the banks can go back >> to where they were. >>he talked about the context -- >> talk about the context of how it was brought up and talk about his thoughts on the issue. >> i brought it up in the interview, because we spent so much time talking about taxes and health care and north korea. we thought it was important to get the question on the record. he gave us the sense that there is some sort of announcement imminent in terms of the handling of wall street, breaking up big banks, and dodd-frank changes, all things
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he is thinking about. i wish i could tell you more, but he did not show is more than that on that question. >> apple shares falling after hours after reporting q2 earnings that beat expectations my but revenues that fell short. at the iphone has always been a moneymaker, but falling flat year after year. not surprising giving the new iphonen for the coming this fall. a reported it generated over $7 billion in revenue on services. let's talk about the iphone, it is driving two thirds of revenue for the company. are you concerned that sales were flat? >> no, i think when you look at the quarter overall it was fairly mixed. the one negative was the iphone numbers. you know, it is one of those quarters where you can only put to much emphasis on the iphone. we think the mess can be
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attributed to the fact that consumers are holding off for the next generation iphone or device. overall, you have seen a little bit ahead on the stock price, but it is something we would look past. hiss tim cook pointed out, thinking that a lot of people have been leaking too much information about the new iphone and there is a lot of expectation and maybe holding off any purchase. you can look at shares -- the two largest companies in taiwan, both of. -- up. there is hope that this will really be something in the third quarter. unfortunately, it is hurting in the second quarter. it comes down to, will this heightened hope be realized or will there be disappointment in the third quarter when the phone comes out? ♪ today.urprise, no move the inanimate to vote, keeping unanimous vote, keeping the rate unchanged. they did acknowledge that the
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economy has slowed in recent months. they go on to say that that is going to change. "the committee views the slowing and growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory. ," it says,isks remain balanced. >> the market was pricing in an additional hike as early as june. did you see anything in there that should change anybody's mind about what to expect from the fed? >> not much. a -- statement. it talked about the resumption of normal economic growth, which i assume is about 2% have entered percent in this quarter. they talked about gradual rate hikes. that is the rub. you speak to one in terms of what the market expects, and the with thethird do -- dot charts, looking at maybe to
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have injury. >> the house passing the gop health care bill, successively voting for the repeal in replacement of obamacare. it now goes to the senate. >> as far as i'm concerned, premiums will start to come down and we will get this through the senate, i feel so confident. votes, toed 217-213 fewer votes and it would have gone down in defeat. there was a margin of about 21 votes and ryan lost 20. the margin in the senate is to votes. it will be an uphill climb to get anything through in the senate, especially since there are moderate senators who seem less likely to budge. this is something that republicans have promised consistently and constantly in every election for the last seven years. they have won the house, the senate and the white house on this promise. if there is a will to get the yes, i would not rule out the prospect. but there is no clear path.
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>> will end up happening, they are going to craft their own entirely new bill. they might take pieces of the house bill, but they do not want to own that bill. it pulls terribly -- polls terribly, they want something of their own. there is a lot of negotiating to go and it will not happen in the next few weeks. >> the payrolls report now. >> 211,000 jobs in april, to 11,000 jobs -- that is beating estimates. can on the 4.4%, the best since may 2007, almost a decade. a solid rebound from the early your reports. thet is a good number and unemployed men never came down 8.6, which is pretty substantial, so there is some thing for everybody. it suggests the fed continues on
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its course of a gradual increase, and that is the primary question, what does gradual mean? to the market, it means at 40 basis points for the year. maybe 50-75 and there is the conundrum. >> i think it is consistent with a hike in june and with three of them over all, because job creation remains solid and because u6 is down. however, in terms of the bigger issues, wage growth is still relatively sluggish and participation rate has come down, so consistent with the fed hiking, but not consistent with the economic takeoff. >> the president is pleased we are growing jobs. he is very pleased that unemployment levels are at 10 plus year lows. those are good numbers. he does not like where the wages are, he wants americans to have
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more disposable income and he wants to grow the economy. julie: still ahead, conversations from the milken institute global conference, including interviews with a steven mnuchin and many roman. and exclusive insight into what went wrong with investments in valiant. and more of the top business headlines. april was another cruel month for u.s. auto sales. >> these are the three biggest players and they are all down, more than anticipated. julie: this is bloomberg. ♪
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of the top business stories. in washington, where an 11th hour agreement on a spending bill averted a government shutdown. >> let's find out if we still have a government functioning in washington. it looks like they will not shut down. they have agreed on a plan. what happened? >> they did not shut down. they kicked the can down the road all the way to friday and i can tell you that those with -- on capitol hill to just they can only get by doing the one-week extensions for about 2-3 more weeks. they will have to pass a longer deal at some point. what is in the budget? on15 billion down payment the military, which the president called for. also $2 billion increase for health research, something that the president said he wanted to get rid of. also $1.5 billion for border security. that is not in increase on the
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u.s. mexico border. this is more of a bipartisan deal than perhaps several folks anticipated. >> the democrats scored a victory here, they took out a limitingings, like financial advice to retirees. basically it is a big win for chuck schumer and nancy pelosi and the president saying he will sign it and that means this thing is all but done and government shutdown is off the table. trying to claim victory, which is a strange way to look at a bipartisan discussion. i think it is unusual for one group to walk out and spike the football and assay we killed the other guys. mulvaneyat was mick speaking at the white house. responding to two tweets the president sent out this might.
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"we needed 60 votes in the senate and we either elect more republican senators or change the rules to 51%." "our country needs a shutdown to fix the mess." >> we have seen mick mulvaney three times come out and talk about this budget deal and he has used a different tone in each appearance. deal, saying it is a great with partisanship between the republicans and democrats and talking about how the white house got a lot of priorities into the bill. and in the most recent briefing was his most incendiary and his most active in which he raised his voice, took on the democrats saying they tried to take credit for a win, that he would not stand for that. >> brexit talks get tougher as david davis says he is willing to walk away without a deal. he also made clear that the u.k. one of the pain a bill of $110
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billion from the european union. this is the negotiator, who wants that. time is ticking. 100 ande get from 16 to how is this playing out politically? >> that is the question that people are asking as they sort of scratch their heads over these numbers that are flying around in the media. certainly, none of this has gone down well. already everybody pretty grumpy after the leak over the weekend and --he dinner that may had. so the mood coming out of whitehall today, not wanting to show any sort of willingness to compromise. and davis saying that the u.k. will threaten to walk away from negotiations, because they feel like they are pushed into a corner. they are pretty grumpy right now
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in london. >> sticking with the economic impact of brexit, we have jpmorgan chase planning to move in dublin andes frankfurt and it would help preserve easy access to the eu single market after brexit. jpmorgan did warn this ahead of brexit that if it happened, 4000 could be relocated. this is possibly the beginning. >> absolutely. 4000 was the number mentioned, now they are giving us more detail with frankfurt, dublin and luxembourg. with the way that the negotiations have started, it is clear, we already have lobbyists from frankfurt and madrid and you name it, trying to win business. on top of that, we have the kicking off of the euro denominated clearing debate, france being very local about -- of being very vocal about it. >> a slump in the auto industry
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in the u.s. showing no signs of letting up. declineshonda showing around 7% each. gm sales falling 6%. and chrysler around 6.6%. >> not good for the industry, but these are the three biggest players and they are all down, more than they had anticipated. definitely softness playing out. there are some bright sides, gm retail sales are up a little bit. there is not a lot to hang your hat on. car sales have been falling and suv sales making up for it and what we see today is there is not enough growth in the suvs to make up for the plunging auto sales. we have to watch the next few weeks to see how it plays out, but we are past the peak and we are in an industry on the downside of a plateau and maybe starting to contract. ♪ fox that might be
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trying to acquire tribute media. reportedly teeny -- teaming up with blackstone for tribune. >> it is all about scale in the television business and of the catalyst is not there is a republican-controlled fcc, the expectations that all the shackles will be taken off and this is an industry that is ready for consolidation, so everybody is looking to get bigger, and sinclair had been the most dominant player in the television business in terms of mna and consolidation and they were considered to be the top one for tribune. >> i thought we were a pass that -- passed that. why do they want more of a growing business? >> it has been retransmission revenues, those are the ones that go to the tv station owners from the cable operators for the right to carry those tv stations.
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that is the second revenue stream for the television stations they have never had over the seven years of their existence and that makes a good business even better. >> they are extending their biggest daily plunge, busted by signs of supply and concern on the outlook of demand in china. the china data and -- is softening. what is behind the move? >> we are looking at copper and iron. they are moving because of good reasons. the numbers not encouraging. -- outa of this trillion of australia showing record stockpiles. and this is a bad sign. let's not get carried away. the main thing to them amber, at least with iron ore, $68 a ton with the biggest oil producers over 100%. it is a very profitable business still there just marginally less
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profitable than a couple weeks ago. >> crude is coming off their worst day since opec agreed on out the cuts. it slipped to $45 a barrel in the last 24 hours with the lowest level this year as u.s. turnout is affecting cuts. we are down 7% this week alone. >> nothing has changed in the market. it is expectations in part, technicals in part and then the market got bearish. we had record amount of trading and it was all shorts coming into the market. >> the narrative, the fundamentals, turning bearish as well. house also filling is this -- self fulfilling is this? how far can ago? >> i expect it is a good buying opportunity. the market is tightening up. we will see robust inventory draws and when it happens there will be a shift in sentiment and
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♪ julie: welcome back to "bloomberg best." i'm julie hyman. two of the world most prominent fund managers spoke with bloomberg this week. ken griffin and bill ackman. we will begin with ken griffin who sat down at the milken institute global conference in beverly hills to discuss recent entrenchment in the hedge fund industry. >> i have been in this space for almost 30 years and over that time there has been an explosion in the size of the industry, the number of funds, $3 trillion of capital, it has been an unbelievable growth story. and like many of those, we are going through entrenchment as
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the dynamics are changing. it is harder to create output, there is more competition and a lot of sharp people trying to get into the marketplace. it is causing some of the second-tier players to fall by the wayside. firmsu see second-tier that do not have a competitive advantage eventually having to call it a day. youruld you describe position as offenses or defensive? >> offensive. >> in what way? >> looking for talented individuals. we hire them and bring them on to our team in this environment with those firms shutting down, it a lot of good people are out there that we want to bring into citadel. and there is a chance to bring good people in. shakeoutng before the in the hedge fund industry is over? how long will it take?
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>> it is a shakeout for asset management. we see the rise -- we see many come out of active management and go toward passive structures. as that happens, the money that is in the passive structures is not -- in the same way. it should make the markets less efficient, creating a larger profit pool for those that remain. find thatve -- will passive will be bigger, active will be smaller and of those firms that are best able to assemble, analyze and incorporate information into their investment decision making will continue to make outside returns. >> we have a company that launched almost 14 years ago. for the first 12 years, we equityed 28% return on and we made a bad acquisition, and we brought a return to equity down to 15%.
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this was a private entity, it and public in october 2014, as a result of the bad acquisition we dropped to a significant discount. and our performance -- >> how much did it cost? >> 30% or more. we have recovered about 20% from the bottom, but the market is not recognizing, or comparing us if you look at discount. if you look at it, the average return of equity was something like 13% over a similar period. that they trade is a multiple of the book value. we trade today at .85% of book value and we have a liquid collection for underlying assets. we do not pay corporate level tax, we have advantages. >> ok. this is clearly why you think it is a good idea to list in london. what did you learn from valeant?
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>> i learned it can be very expensive. this is a strategy were historically we have a large stake in a company, joined the board of directors, and had kind of a yay or nay over the big decisions. we worked closely with the management team at valeant and it was a successful transaction. we made the mistake of making a passive investment in the company and not being on board we cannot see what was going on. that was a big mistake. >> does it mean you will stay away from pharmaceutical companies? >> probably. julie: coming up, more conversations from the milken institute global conference, including david solomon on an underwhelming quarter and wilbur ross on nafta. and when the foic was front and center, we have an interview with ben bernanke it has some
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♪ added 9 million users last quarter. where is that growth coming from? is a coming from donald trump? >> we cannot say that that is driving the growth because we do not have a way to measure that. twitter benefits when influential people in the world use our platform to tell what is happening. we encourage that, we love the discussion, we love the conversation that is happening. the more it happens, the better we are at showing you what is happening in the world. we would love it if every world leader used twitter as a primary method to talk to consist you achieve.-- consist to
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julie: this week, bloomberg became one of twitter's video partners. some of the top financial partners spoke to bloomberg at the institute in beverly hills, including leaders of the trump administration's economic team. let's begin with steven mnuchin in an interview. he confirmed the u.s. is thinking seriously about issuing long-term bonds to fund infrastructure programs. we are studying ultralong bonds. that isn't something we are considering at treasury. we have a group working on it. we think it is something that could absolutely make sense for us at treasury, but on the infrastructure side, the president is determined that we make the major investments. they are a major part of the them for structure that needs to be rebuilt, and we will do that in a lot of different ways, public and private partnerships
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so we don't illumine the budget item trillion dollars. they are looking at things the wrong way? company,re running a if you're putting long-term investments, that would be counted differently than short-term cash flows. is that one of the restrictions he base? -- you face? >> absolutely. you have an income statement and balance sheet. if you are making an investment that has a 20 year or 30 year payback, you don't expense it all on day one or look at it as a complete expense. the government budget treats everything as cash, so it makes it more difficult. bring others in to finance the infrastructure, what would you do? is it to do with pricing, long-term? >> i think we have seen lots of interest from our counterparts
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investing in the united states, whether it is infrastructure or other opportunities. i think this is something we will be able to get done. nafta is an old agreement, it is an obsolete agreement. it does not reflect the current status of either the mexican economy or the canadian or american. it needs updating. second, it has a particular problem with the rules of origin. much of raw materials can be brought in from outside nafta and be given the tariff benefits of nafta? they did it part by part, and some of those parts are not even used in cars anymore, because technology has changed. there are a lot of changes like that that are needed. there are a lot of things that were not thought about, digital economy not really dealt with.
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services economy, not really dealt with very much. thatof the liberalization mexico has made to its natural resource laws, not at all. there is a lot of stuff to do. but at the end of the day, the objective will be to fold -- two fold. talk lastas a lot of week about pulling out of nafta altogether, ditching it altogether versus renegotiating. what is your sense of the possibility of getting rid of the whole thing right now? is thatis unfortunate it began as a sensible discussion of alternatives into something beyond what it really was. , all the leaks that have been occurring. they seem to be a factor in washington.
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people say there is no such thing as an off the record conversation, but the fact remains that the president has made the decision to try and negotiate nafta all over again. he has also made clear that if we cannot do that, his inclination would be to withdraw. executives from the world's leading financial firms also joined bloomberg for interviews. here are some highlights, starting with the exclusive conversation with pimco ceo. fixed incomehy managers retain an edge in the market. turnxed income indices over 10 times what the s&p 500 turns over. it is also the fact that you have noneconomic engines, and think of the fed. who are have the buyers
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accounting driven. or they have liability to match. so, the opportunity for our performance -- four out performance is greater. >> there is the possibility that the government could cause problems and push for regulators -- trying to push things because it is cheaper. >> of course, it would be legislation which would push for the lowest price. but we think the business totor, we can add 1.12% 1.25%. when you consider that we are 1.50%, about 1.25% to the amount of outperformance is substantial. >> ideas as to where pimco will be, will it be a more global
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firm? >> i think there is a nerd for globalization across all businesses in america. the big unknown is how that can be. it is exciting, but hard to size. it is difficult for firms like but things may change. we think there is growth in emerging markets. we think that we will have more resources in the u.s. going forward. >> we did not meet expectations this quarter. it is not the first quarter we didn't. >> it does not happen very often. >> but it happened this quarter. there is no risk management issue. we feel good about the work we are doing for our clients. was not the star performer it has been in the past.
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goldman's ago, equities was twice as large as morgan stanley's, and now morgan stanley's is bigger. what happened? >> businesses are weighted in different ways. we have a strong position across institutional, high touch, low touch brokerage. one of the places we are not as a business that has grown significantly. morgan stanley has a eager decision in that business. >> what do you do about it? >> it is not a straightforward business. there is an operational risk. while we are investing in it, we want to be in that business. we have been more cautious in terms of our investment, but we are building out that capability. morgan stanley -- we have a very significant institutional leading franchise. >> can you take some of that away from morgan stanley? >> i think there are
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opportunities with certain clients that we don't do as much business with to increase market share. >> how? >> by continuing to invest in technology, and to make sure it is competitive. that is something we will continue to focus on. julie: in another excuse of interview this week, tom keene went one-on-one with former fed chair ben bernanke. among the many topics they talked about was tax policy. we victims of our cultural economics, almost our cultural religion where we cannot spend money when we need to? >> it is ironic because now we are talking about a tax cuts, at least from the perspective of putting people back to work. it would have made more sense to have more tax cuts and spending in 2013 or 2012 and i was asking for that.
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i'm that perspective, with unemployment at 4.5 percent, the case is weaker, though there is always a case to improve the tax code to make it more efficient and fair. in terms of adding demand to the economy, that would have been better of you years ago. >> are these tax cuts you can support as proposed? particularly, are these within a gilded age where the cuts are too narrowly going to the wealthy? >> i guess i have a couple concerns. one is it is more demand side oriented than -- it is not obvious it will can -- it will increase the potential of the economy. as i was saying four or five years ago, we could have used more stimulus. it is obvious we need it. is it appearsct
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that would create a bigger deficit. i am not opposed to increasing deficits, but if we are going to come a why not think about -- if we are going to, why not think about it? i think it is some just to say we do not know who president trump will appoint. he could reappoint janet yellen. it would be from his perspective a reasonable, sensible thing to do. she has the confidence of the markets. sureer is appointed i am will work carefully with the rest of the department. there is a reason there are so many people on the committee making the decisions, including seven members of the board, and a high quality staff which provides guidance and help. we are not quite in the 1928 situation.
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foras been another big week corporate earnings reports across the globe. our roundup begins in silicon valley with results from facebook. are downok shares after reporting earnings that missed expectations. the social network now has $1.94 -- 1.9 4 billion active users. mobile ads accounted for 85% of revenue, thanks in part to instagram's rapid growth. instagram is an important
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platform, along with facebook. we are seeing strong growth across those. >> those are incredible numbers. every quarter it seems like facebook has another "great quarter." see where there might be problems. the revenue number looks great, the user number looks great. there is a lot of momentum at facebook. our forecast this year is that instagram will have $4 billion in revenue, and that will be over 1/10 of facebook's overall revenue. >> i think instagram is an important platform. they are still intrigued by it and want to learn more about how to reach that youth audience that is so prominent on instagram. >> let's get back to the banking sector. france's biggest bank reported earnings that beat estimates with one point -- 1.9 billion
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euros. is a tribute to our business performance whose revenues are at 30%. the common at equity, it continues to improve to 11.6%. basically, it is good. to top it off, last but not to be we also decided neutral by year end. hit 9.14djusted profit billion dollars, topping expectations. >> i have to say, i would be happy if i could close out right now. we guided to the end of the year to see revenue over the course that is a good start for first quarter. move into we discussions with investors over the next few days.
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>> i know you have been watching the earnings, the first of australia's reports this week. how do the numbers stack up? >> they stack up reasonably well. to $2.9it is up 6% billion. the cash profit is often watched with the bank, that was $3.41 billion. of 23%, but considered a slight miss. these numbers built on the success of the domestic units, and we are seeing the bank over go ofst few months let its asian assets. some of the other numbers paint a mixed picture, particularly net interest margins, falling to 2%. by charges are also down millions of dollars. >> we're watching the banks in singapore after the largest bank estimates.-- beat
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are you seeing a common thread here on the improvement? >> it was a bit of a turnaround for dbs. that was quite a nice performance. a bigger fix from wealth management, so the wealth management business is doing well. the common thread is that those oil and gas problems, which the singapore banks have had, they seem to be under control. >> aberdeen asset management has reported in the most recent six-month. that markets have recovered. the first quarter we have had for about four years where we good, positivey flows into emerging markets and emerging-market debt.
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it has been probably the best quarter for three or four years. >> do you think the trend will continue? >> i think so. i think people are seeing value in emerging markets. people are looking in places like india with the growth rate it has, and investing there and and emergingbonds, markets globally looking for value. >> let's talk about bp. adjusted net income came in above the estimate. forecast coming in at $2.7 billion. they are producing cash, but not enough to cover three big issues. bp oryou were to look at other big oil companies, the results would be good. they have increased the income, they have improved their estimates, and the cash flow has gone up. but bp cannot generate enough
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money to cover those three packets. they are unique in that they need to continue paying the government of mexico liabilities. this is approaching the limit that ep is comfortable with. is ratio that they aim to 20% to 30%. the previous quarter was 26.8%. this quarter was 28%. >> we are touching a five-month low for producers like shell. first-quarter earnings reported today. is it becoming a cash generating machine? >> more so than it was previously. i would not say we are back to the boom times. it is clear the balance sheet is getting stronger and investors like it, the we are not back. >> how does it validate the chief executive's decision to make that massive acquisition? for now.k it does
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this is a long-term investment, so we will have this conversation in five years, and the answer may be different. consecutivead three quarters of adjusted losses before today. first quarter profit is climbing. has it turned the corner? >> i think it is a long-term process of rationalizing the assets and seeing what will make the most money. that will not happen in three months, it will happen over several years. >> tesla confirmed its highly anticipated model three raman's -- remains on schedule. this after the company reports a first-quarter loss. do earnings or losses matter when it comes to tesla? >> obviously not. a company like ford misses and earning estimate by a penny or a nickel, and their stock gets clobbered. tesla missed it by 50%, and their stock went up. but they did not run out of money and the model three is on
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>> we have the auto marketers talking about their u.s. sales and they were not impressive. this is a chart going through 2011 of u.s. auto sales. you can see it rising, and then we get to this year, and there has been a drop off, coming in well short of expectations today. all of the big names for gm, toyota, all behind estimates. if there are 30,000 coaches on the bloomberg, and we enjoy showing you our favorites. maybe they will become your
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favorites. here is a function you might find useful, q uic go -- quic . here is a quick pick from this week. >> the palestinians must recognize the jewish state. >> the election of jewish -- of donald trump has emboldened been yet and yahoo!. announced they will build their first settlements in the west bank. -- breaking decades with decades of policy, they do not view settlements as an obstacle to peace. israel'sonding to announcement, u.s. officials say that expanding settlements may not be helpful in achieving peace. >> i would like to see you hold back on settlements a little bit. we will work something out. is the situation. the west bank is populated mostly by palestinians who hope
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to make it part of an independent state. palestine. since israel conquered the havetory, settlements increased. the population of settlers has grown four times faster than israel itself. since the hawkish or dovish government has supported the settlements. why did they choose to settle in the west bank? there are three reasons. one, religion. ,any jews point to the bible that says the land was promised to them by god. two, security. defense that land as against attacks like the one that happened in 1948. three, affordability. others like the red -- like the relatively high standard of living. but according to the international court of justice, israeli settlements are in breach of international law. here is the argument. her years, buffer zones, and the president -- presents of israeli
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soldiers make it difficult for palestinians. what they both argued that settlements play into a bigger problem. it prevents peace i dividing the line left behind by the establishment. any peace agreement with tender israel taking the task of taking tens of thousands of settlers from the west bank. israel has removed settlers as it would through from occupied as it withdrew from occupied territory in the past, but those were sent -- smaller numbers. >> peace would still not be obtainable without both sides acknowledgment uncomfortable choices -- truths and making a couple choices. >> such as how to share jerusalem and in short security. -- ensure security. of the manyone takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them on bloomberg.com along with the latest business analysis. that will be all for us this
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