tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg May 29, 2017 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT
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♪ >> effect turns his attention to the balance sheet. john williams says cutting it down is setting it up. >> mario draghi says europe's recovery may be threatened from abroad. >> there is more advice for the white house. he says the president's visa changes are hurting the industry. >> india and china both start trade talks in europe suggesting asia is becoming more important for the e.u. >> hello from sydney.
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i'm haidi lun. australia."break: >> ain't betty liu. we will be watching what is ahead on wall street and how asia may affect the trade. markets were closed today to commemorate memorial day. no action at all here in the u.s.. we have lots of economic numbers including japan. jobs numbers as well as retail sales data. haidi: that is right. weekjobs at the end of the and the fed trying to get the last word before the june meeting. in asia, a very meandering start to the week for global stocks. we had european stocks hardly moving. china yesterday closed.
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up about 1% at the moment. the dollar has been trading sideways given the absence of the market catalyst with the holiday start to the week. australia futures showing a downside of about .1%. we do have iron ore trading below $60 a ton for the first time since october. a note today saying they expect headwinds when it comes with a downgrade of china. a reminder of how vulnerable the aussie dollar is. potential further down risk. at $50 a barrel. gaine seeing iron ore above 1% but trading well below $60. some moves downside when it comes to the copper space as
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well. let's get you up to date with the first word news. >> thanks very much. u.k. prime minister theresa may and opposition leader jeremy corbyn are taking part in a live tv question-and-answer session with the general election 10 days away. the two differed over potential payments under brexit. the prime minister said it was not a question of paying to ensure a good deal while the labor leader said he would hand over what is legally required. u.s. draghi has warned the it might be heading down the wrong path on trade. speaking in brussels, the e.c.b. president said the euro zone economy is strengthening boosted by consumption and export. he added the biggest threats are now external echoing angela merkel's, the e.u. and u.s. are drifting apart. mario draghi also said he will maintain policy to safeguard recovery. >> for domestic price pressures
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to strengthen, we still need accommodative financing conditions which are dependent on a fairly substantial amount of monetary accommodation. >> the man seen as potentially the next bank of japan governor says policymakers must change the way they push wages and inflation. he said japan's tight labor bringing a change of strategy needed to achieve the increases required for sustainable inflation. the unemployment rate and retail sales in the latest snapshot of the economy. it sustained gains amid signals policymakers are becoming less tolerant of the week currency. it surged almost 1% in the past suspectedamid intervention from the people's bank of china. in the derivative market, the one-month volatility is heading for the biggest three-a jump since the august 2015
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devaluation. vietnam's prime minister is to be the first southeast asian leader to meet president trump. the premier will be at the white house on wednesday with trade likely to be one of the main topics of discussion. vietnam has been looking to sign a bilateral trade deal after the u.s. decided to abandon the trans-pacific partnership. >> we respect president trump's decision with regards to trade. and we want to make sure we can convince them this is a mutually beneficial relationship for both consumersamericans benefit and prefer the products below makes for the u.s. market. ramy: you can catch the whole interview with the prime minister later on "daybreak: australia." news 24 hour was day powered by more than 2600
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journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ramy inocencio. this is bloomberg. haidi: thanks for that report. for a look at what is happening around australia, we have been talking about iron ore slipping under $60. pointmakes an interesting saying supply and demand fundamentals are intact. is probablynd sustained as china builds out infrastructure. the line of demand tracks straight up. supply is growing but relatively stable. the implication is the price is subject to external factors, mainly traders betting on price swings. rio tinto has said the surge in trading is partly due to speculators betting on china's growth prospects. es.k at a couple of the index s iron ore traded below $60 a ton.
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they hit the lowest since october on friday. we don't see the big kinds going forward we often talk about. the one belt, one road continues. that should underpin demand as well. betty: they want more information from western australia about the advance payment on taxes. what is this about? paul: they are going to get the chance. this is something we were discussing monday. the miners will meet the western australian premier today to get more clarity. the idea that floated that may will bend rio tinto interested in paying in advance on their iron ore levies, seven years worth in advance would give $1 billion to the western australian government. the government is in a deep hole to the tune of $30 billion. the premier saying that will take generations to pay off after the benefits of the mining boom were somewhat squandered in western australia.
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the miners are not keen and there is another development today. one analyst saying all of the money western australia could potentially get from the levy may just be redistributed around australia because that is the way the tax system works here. thed on the early reaction, western australian premier seems to be cooling on the idea of it. paul: thanks so much, allen in sydney. back on the fed, the president of the san francisco fed saying the reduction on the balance sheet will not be a problem for the markets. in fact, it will be boring. we will have another opinion in the next hour when st. louis's fed president joins us. kathleen hays is watching all of the fed speakers. he was saying it will be an uneventful thing for the market. >> he can say all he wants and
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fed officials have. are market investors understandably wondering what will happen. betty: this has never happened before. we know the fed signal they wanted to start balance sheet reductions. the minutes of the march meeting got the conversation going more. for the first time, the fed outlined potential steps for how they will do this. john williams said in prepared remarks and in a great interview yesterday in singapore that it will be the most telegraphed move ever. he cannot give details or tell us how much they will reduce the balance sheet, but it is coming soon. here is what he said. >> is the balance sheet going to have two dollars trillion? i am not making decisions. we have not made decisions. i am not trying to communicate a decision. i think that is the right way to think about the endpoint of this. let's communicate with
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a bloomberg chart. i want to see how small the balance sheet was when the great recession was getting started before the fed had to take steps that have never taken before. about half $1 billion mostly treasuries. the white is treasury bonds. when you look at how it has grown, you can see $4.5 trillion. $3 billion now and treasuries and mortgage-backed securities nearly $1.8 billion. a big balance sheet. mortgage-backed securities are something the fed wanted to get off their balance sheet. they usually have only treasuries. this is important. here is what they told us last week about the balance sheet plan. they will stop reinvesting proceeds when the bonds mature. they will start letting a certain portion rolloff and put a cap on it. every three months, they will let more roll off. i was doing a lot of reading over the weekend.
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bank of america has already written a report saying the fed will start these steps in january and they will roll off the cap starting at $5 billion. j.p. morgan chase is saying it will start in december and set the cap at $12 billion. the idea is to do it gradually and watch how the markets react. apart from the balance sheet, 2017illiams said there are rate hikes still appropriate. when asked about inflation numbers, he said it should not change the fed's path as long as they proved to be temporary. he is watching it and seems to be saying it will not be a problem. boring unwinding of the balance sheet, as he puts it. we will be speaking to jim bullard in the next hour. what do we want to find out from him? the president of st.
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louis said the same thing, like watching paint dry. jim bullard does these great presentations with fights and everything. he is concerned about weak inflation. the fed has missed the inflation goals for five years now. that is a problem. he said it is not as bad as japan in the 1990's but were some. let's look at another bloomberg chart and see where we are. pce is given where core an headline pce, there has been improvement. but it is heading in the wrong direction. 4.5%id inflation is about below the path it was on from 1990 to 2012. he is worried about falling short because it will bring down inflation expectations. he notes the fed has been missing its inflation goal since 2012. he does think the key rate is
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getting close to the appropriate level. he is saying you don't have to raise rates much because you are almost where you need to be. he said in terms of the balance sheet, he wants to see starting in the second half of this year. we are about a month away from the second half. he does not expect to have a big market effect. the fed officials are going into this optimistically saying we can make a slow, steady, keep it on autopilot. it will be more like a technical move. the fed stops buying bonds, that means there are more bonds being thatevery three months investors have to buy. there will be more supply, less demand from the fed. will that push-up bond yields? tot may be the simplest way look at what we will see. haidi: this rally in the bond market, there is a sense this might be euphoria surrounding global equities. there is concern about how the
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markets will cope. thanks for that. we will be speaking exclusively with the st. louis fed president, jim bullard, later on "daybreak asia" in about an hour. there's plenty more coming up on the show. areralian investors tackling companies that do not appear to be making progress on gender diversity. we will be talking about that later this hour. betty: they are trying to change president trump's visa policy saying it will damage the industry. details on that coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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will damage the technology industry. ramy inocencio has been following all of this. why speak out now? off the backoming of what is happening in terms of their quarterly report. the report came out and missed analyst expectations by far. not just 10 percent or 20% but on the order of about 24%. i will get to that in a little bit. folks that do not really understand what it is, it is india's biggest software services company. its peers include infosys. it has a market cap of about $5.8 billion. central part of the entire story is what is happening in terms of donald trump's america first ideology. he wants to curb immigration from around the world. when we are talking about india
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to the united states, it has to be with the h-1b visa program. the white house, donald trump has said it neighbors foreign workers over american workers and he says that does need to stop. in april, the white house did start to roll out some policy changes that were more restrictive. customs and immigration said they wanted to fight fraud and abuse. we are seeing some kickback from overseas. chair came out with some words saying this shift in policies, he calls it a radical shift in policies, is going to lead to a tougher application procedure and higher cost for indian i.t. companies that want to bring talent to the united states. some of this includes tougher procedures to get them through the system. it is like water trying to find
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a way someplace else. like if it is not going to the u.s., in my go to europe or stay in india. one man's loss here is another man's gain. haidi: this criticism from tech mahindra comes as they reported q4 earnings that missed. analysts have not been kind about that. ramy: they have not at all. let me recap what this was. it missed by about 24%. 5.9 billion rupees was the actual. the estimate was 7.8 billion. you can see the share price fell by about 11.6% or so. that was the biggest fall since 2013, lowest since 2013. this is big stuff. it was also the biggest loser on the index. i want to show you what is
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happening in terms of analyst recommendations. you can see the yellow line as well as the white line. both falling. this happened in the last day or so. before the earnings, the green buys.resented by 39 after that, 32, falling by seven. nine holes and eight sells. u.b.s. cut to sell. j.p. morgan cut to neutral as well as a couple of other ones. the 12-month price target is now about 4.69. the share price is much lower by about 380. hard times for tech mahindra. we will have to see what happens with this as well as its peers in terms of what happens with donald trump's immigration policies.
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haidi: those analysts not wasting any time on the calls. thank you so much for that. we would like to bring to your attention the interactive tv function. you will be able to watch us live and catch up with previous interviews and dig into any of the bloomberg functions we talk about. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. check it out at tv . ♪
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♪ betty: we have breaking news. more on toshiba's chip unit, the government-backed investment fund. according to different headlines from two different sources, the nikkei reporting it is considering teaming up with western digital over the bidding for the toshiba chips unit. the other is saying the fund is unlikely to decide on this plan for toshiba by tomorrow, which
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had been expected according to some reports. we will have more on this story later on " daybreak: asia." it looks like it is considering bidding for the chips in it with western digital -- chips unit with western digital. a quick check of other business flash headlines we are watching. it has reported a 38% fall in fourth-quarter profit on rising wage costs. net income declined to $420 million. that is the fourth quarter in a row of falling profit. costs rose 18% while growing competition from energy sources such as solar and wind prevented the company from raising prices. competition and $7 billion in debt are catching up with reliance communications. the stock fell to a record low
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amid failing to meet obligations. the wireless operator is in at a mergerles would allow it to pare debt by $4 billion. surging to a record in hong kong. shares closing 23% higher and have more than tripled this year. j.p. morgan says evergr ande's business is not sustainable. the index at the highest level since july 2015. a huge run-up. i know we have been looking deeper into that story. haidi: it does not really make sense. a couple of the points you made. it is the world's most indebted developer. there are notes saying the business is not sustainable. the trades at 36 times reported earnings. that is more than double what we see for the likes of other
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developers. chinesevelopers -- developers are some of the best performers in asia so far. a lot can go wrong with rising borrowing costs. betty: that is right. seemsr, given the fact it in hong kong chinese developers have done quite well, particularly in the commercial space, you can see why some investors see opportunity there. haidi: yeah. you do. short-sellers getting squeezed painfully because the rally to find expectations. whenll be watching that hong kong comes back online. let's look at what is coming up. ont, india's prime minister a tour of europe. his visit signals and asian
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anchor: it is 8:30 am in sydney. markets open in 98 minutes time. not a whole lot of leave frothy traders to go on. future down by .1%. large parts of the global markets have been closed. i am haidi lun in sydney. betty: it might be the calm before the storm. it is 6:30 p.m. in new york. you are watching "daybreak australia." up, the san francisco fed president john williams has told bloomberg he's he's a far smaller balance sheet starting with what he called "a baby step of unwinding before the end of this year." policymakers say they will
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minimize market reaction. williams said the process will be "boring and in the background." >> given my own view of the economy, i expect this to start the normalization of the balance sheet, the baby step toward later this year. that will take several years to take place. we will allow -- the assets we had to mature and decline organically. ramy: over to india, and one of the largest tech services companies is warning that president trump' the policy will damage the industry. earnings andeaker the stock fell the most in two years. net income was $91 million in the fourth quarter. that is according to estimates of 120 million. the vice-chairman said the president's america first policy sector.t the i.t. a boost in the value of foreign
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currency devaluation assets gave the bank of japan a full year profit, making up for the loss suffered in the first six months of the year. the bank had net income of four point -- $4.6 billion. the 9% fall in the yen over the second half helped the boj by reducing losses from foreign currency holdings. and china is revising the rules on major investors selling their the chinaough securities regulatory commission said investors owning more than 5% of the company who then decide to dispose of their earnings in an orderly manner. be imposed on i anyone breaking the new walls. the computer crash at british airways is expected to cost the carrier at least $110 million in both compensation and damages. that is about 3% of the annual operating profit of the parent company.
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it could be worse. they have no idea how it all happened. the ceo said they are trying to find the cause, but he ruled out a cyber attack. that suggests the failure was in-house. global news part by more than 20000 and -- 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. anchor: let us get a quick update on the market. we are not seeing a whole lot of catalysts, as you can expect going into the asian session. paringaland really some of those earlier gains. we are looking at the kiwi dollar at 7849. at 7040 nine. we are seeing that downward pressure when it comes to iron ore trading below $60 when it comes to the chinese benchmark price for the first time since october. we are down 30% year-to-date when it comes to that iron ore price. taking a look elsewhere around
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the region, it is shaping up to be a data-heavy second half of the week. china pmi going into that june meeting and u.s. jobs as well really shape these expectations for whether the fed will go in june. we are also seeing all futures rising for a second day today as the extension of the output restrictions is seen, ultimately bringing down the global glut. our hedge funds starting to jump back in? su keenan is here with a look. we had almost a bit of a tantrum following opec, but the market seemed to be more sanguine when it comes to not getting deeper cuts. bit of a disappointment that opec did not go further, but the question -- are hedge funds jumping back into oil? #btv 8924. recently asas february, hedge funds were
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placing huge bets prices would rise. they turned out to be right if you look at that dip. case.e have the opposite we have a short squeeze. people were betting prices would stay lower, and they are coming back big time, and so, there is room for even more of a short squeeze as people cover their bets against bearish positions. in. have to buy back and that makes the gains greater purity expectation is that opec will continue to bring down inventory. agreed tollies prolong the curves by nine months. there was disappointment that they did not do more. u.s. traders were inspecting that. you thought bit of a downturn. if we go into the price chart, you can see year-to-date, the oil has come back. we maintained above $50 in the past week. we are at that level now. there is an expectation that inestors have really piled
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for net long positions, added rigs last week. it is the slowest pace this year. a lot of that is supportive of higher prices for the near term. anchor: let us talk about mario draghi and the euro trading a little bit lower. he made these comments, stimulated policies still to stay. as wellabout the u.s. and that the u.s. might be headed towards a wrong path on trade year. >> it is our most like the backlash on the trump visit. there are some world leaders saying they have a little uneasy feeling. monday tos statements talk about the strength of the eurozone, the four-year recovery for the eurozone. >> for domestic price pressures financinghen, we need positions which are dependent on
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a fairly substantial amount of monetary accommodation. he is talking about more quantitative easing and shifted .fter that speech he is echoing the comments from germany's angela merkel that the u.s. and europe are not as close as they were. a lot of people were put off by trump's hectoring the european nations at nato. perhaps the near protectionist eo-protectionist stance coming from the states is a concern. his comments coming one day after merkel's not unexpected -- but again, it adds one more iron on the fire. if we go into the bloomberg, we see hedge funds take another the euro, and you know, there is some positioning on the currency, even though there is quiet activity this holiday
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weekend. we are seeing that going forward, there will be a lot of re-examination of the relationship. absolutely. the frost year relationship we are seeing between the -- frostier relationship we are seeing between the allies. now, india and china might be looking at this as a possible opportunity to discuss the new world order with european leaders. stephen engle joining us for more. let us start with prime minister of india. stake ofis so much at course. obviously, coming on the heels of donald trump's visit to europe and the course of various comments about the fear of newectionism rising, and a world order, if you will. when angela merkel says those friendships forged after world war ii are for the most part
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over. they need to look at new relationships, and india and china are on the heels of donald trump's visit to europe, coming to europe themselves. is in berlin as part of the six-day visit, where he will go to spain. he is the first prime minister of india to visit spain in some years. he will go to russia and the with vladimir putin. he will wrap up the six-day trip with a visit to france and the new president there. the other master will be meeting with angela merkel tomorrow, but for the first part, modi visited a country retreat out of berlin with angela merkel, a casual affair at a country estate, talking again about the rise of protectionism. them as a potential ally in defending global free trade. they could find common ground on
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climate change and combating terrorism globally. andriy near, you know, they see this as a business opportunity. modi is bringing his commerce minister, withy a number of deals expected to be signed between the two countries. as modi put it, he says this is our opportunity to chart out a future roadmap of cooperation with focus on trade and investment among other issues. the fda has been long stalled. they have been complaining of protectionism on the part of the indians. let us go into the bloomberg terminal. i will bring up g #btv 8934. it shows india's trade surplus with the e.u. deficitsee e.u.'s trade with india. some of the europeans have complained privately that india is very slow on these kind of negotiations which are obvious going to be complicated by brexit or opportunistic as well. you can see it could be struck
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between india and the u.k. separately and europe can have their own negotiations. that being said, let us change the page. she #btv 8931. despite the surplus, outbound of europe to trade, they have seen an upsurge this year in foreign direct investment in 2017 under the policies of narendra modi. anchor: and they were looking at china of course, meeting with angela merkel tomorrow. this is a special relationship. what is expected to be discussed? anchor: talk about a special relationship between germany and china. stephen: well, we have the people daily saying they will enhance political trust. these are the common words that they talk about. they are going to expand cooperation for a fresh impetus, according to the mouthpiece of the communist party.
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this is coming on the heels of the trump visit. this is about china trying to get a greater say in the g-20. germany arel and the head of the g-20 this year. china has long said they want the g-20 to have a greater eighting in trade practices. they will go on to belgium following day for two quick days in europe. road.: one belt, one steve, thank you so much for that. australia's macho boardroom over diversity. a look at the consequences, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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at least one day as it grapples with a shortage of steering parts. production has been suspended since friday, and its facility in munich has been affected. it is being reported that the problem stems from an unidentified italian supplier, which has been unable to make the deliveries required by bmw. bought arren buffett 3% stake in a german company, whose state sword. up by 7% as berkshire hathaway top one of the company's six shareholders. it is transforming itself into one of the leading makers of lubricants and flame retardants. a chinese pharmacy is interested in buying the body shop, which has been put up by l'oreal. the brazilian cosmetics firm and private equity bidders are said to be among those invited for a
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second round. l'oreal bought the body shop from an entrepreneur in 2006. betty: the australian council is calling on companies to do more to diversify gender on board. they will vote against the reelection of the incumbent director starting with the chairman of asx 200 companies which have no women on their boards. joining us from melbourne is louise davison, australian council. thank you so much for joining us here. on thisou had been campaign, so to speak, to expand diversity, and it has been changing, albeit slowly. tacticsow switch the and start saying you will be voting with your shares on this? >> we started this process eight years ago,
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and we were talking to companies -- we have been talking to companies for long times about it. we were not making the same sort of progress as we would like to make, so we took a decision that by 2017, we expected companies in the top 200 bracket in australia to have 30% women on their boards. we wrote to companies, went and spoke to companies, explained the rationale for that, being that it leads to better decision-making in our view. i think there is a lot of research now that will support that, so we wrote to companies and said we wanted to know, particularly for those companies with one or zero women on their boards, what their strategy was. how were they going to move forward and move into this century, so to speak? and we still have a position now. this is a couple of years down the track. there are 12 companies in the asx 200 who do not have any
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women on their board still, and so, we think the time has come votevise on them to against the reelection of incumbent members on those boards. betty: you have more than $1 trillion in assets, so you have some weight behind that stance, but louise, you mentioned earlier on that it seems to have stalled a little bit. why did the momentum stall? play too don't want to big a part on the stalling because actually, we have seen tremendous success. 10 years ago, there were only 8% women on the asx 200 board, but that is up around 25% now. last year for the calendar year, 42% of appointments to asx 200 boards were women. that does seem to have come back a bit this year. we are looking at 27%. he hoped that is the timing normally and it does not signify that things are going backwards.
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we are pretty confident that companies that are thinking seriously about the future are boardssure that their have appropriate levels of diversity. when i moderated this conversation for the second anniversary of the 30% cut in australia, bloomberg, just a few days ago, i was told off a little bit for being too pessimistic that i had suggested, in some european countries like norway, for example, if you do not have at least 40% representation of females on your board, a company risks being delisted. are we at that point here? do you think further penalties would help? is it a case where we have the conversation going and now maybe companies need a little bit more stick and less care it, if you will -- carrot if you will? louise: we see the use of our proxy voting rights as being a bit of a stick, if you will.
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think it is time to put our money -- for our members to put our money where their mouths are. we represent the biggest pension fund in australia and india globally. they are very strongly supportive of what we are supporting here because it is time for change. what are your thoughts on the talent pipeline? there is a lot of concern that given you do not have as much visibility of senior women in these roles, you are not getting that talent when it is time to promote. louise: there are two sides to that. it is important for companies to be starting to build that allen's pipeline coming up through their ring -- talent pipeline coming up here their. i do not buy that there are no women. sometimes, that is the excuse given by companies. there is a male-dominated
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appoint and they on the on merit. i think there has been quite a bit of research that when people merit,y only appoint on they think they are appointing people quite like them. [laughter] haidi: plenty of work still to do. louise, thank you so much for that. louise davidson. coming to us from melbourne. coming up, vietnam's prime minister will be the first southeast asian leader to meet with president trump this week. we will look exclusively at the year ahead of that meeting, next. this is bloomberg.
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state to meet with president trump. he aims to convince his host that you a trade will be mutually beneficial. my visit aims to promote the comprehensive partnership between vietnam and the united states for a wider scope and added substance including bilateral, leading, and international channels. >> will you be pushing for a bilateral free trade agreement given that the u.s. has pulled out of the the -- has pulled out of the tpp? maintain dialogue of issues related to economic and trade matters. we respect president trump's decision with regards to trade, and we want to make sure we can convince them that this is a mutually beneficial relationship for both sides and the exports -- american consumers benefit
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and prefer the products vietnam exports to the u.s. market. >> are you saying you're confident of concluding a free-trade agreement, bilateral free trade agreement with the u.s., noting of course that president trump has called vietnam a trade sheet because of the $31 billion surplus in the u.s.? eatingre is no ch in any kind of products. we have all the proof to prove it. i would stress that besides exporting to the united states, vietnam also imported a lot of products from the u.s. including ,irplanes and engine turbines down to the abreu producers like maize. and i can tell you -- the agro importers like maize. i can tell you it will increase
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significantly as we will sign billions of dollars worth of deals with american firms and import lots of meaningful high- value products from the united states that will create american jobs. >> is there a need to diversify more, your trading partners? vietnam is a big supporter of free trade, and we want to make and that all people countries benefit from free trade. we have established at the same time a wide network of partners with 12 already signed. i can guarantee you that businesses would not invest in vietnam if they do not see interest and profits. same for vietnam. we and the united states. minister, you talked about wanting a closer relationship with the u.s. what role would you like to see the u.s. play in areas like the south china sea, for instance?
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would you like to see more u.s. presence? vietnam and the united states and other countries in the region and the world want to have they south china sea in which the freedom of navigation insured, and the un's convention on the law of the sea in 1982 is observed. reporter: would that require more u.s. presence or not? >> i think that we would need to and with theher stakeholders to make sure that all parties will benefit from whatever action we decide to take to ensure peace in this area. betty: we are going to talk more about vietnam on bloomberg television tomorrow when i speak exclusively with the former head fund manager who is making a comeback with his new company hc
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betty: the fed turning its attention to the balance sheet. john williams says cutting back assets will not upset the market. toio draghi is the latest say the u.s. is wrong on trade. he says europe cost recovery may be threatened from abroad. >> japan changing the way it pushes wages and inflation. this hour brings the latest jobs and retail numbers. >>
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