politicalthe global and business leaders express their dismay of trump's plan to pull america out of the paris agreement. >> i do respect this decision but i do think it is a mistake. both for the u.s. and for our planet. >> it's a very sad day. it's a sad day for the world. it's a sad day for our grandchildren. francine: jobs day usa. the unemployment rate is the

figure in focus as investors search for clues about the next fed rate hike. with the u.k. election less than a week away, we speak to iain duncan smith. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i'm francine lacqua here in london. there's a lot of news today and that has loads of implications for all the data across the board. let's get straight to it. global stocks are up. the nikkei 225 stock average topped 20,000 points for the 2015.time since this is mainly as private american hiring data bolstered confidence in the economy. we have to wait for that jobs data today coming through. this is what we're seeing for pound, weakening a touch. look out for pound. we are just seven days until that election, june 8. yen, i'm seeing a little movement. 111.56. crude oil, we will be speaking

to the opec secretary-general shortly. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. nejra: we start in the u.s. the trump administration has asked the u.s. supreme court to reinstate its travel ban. the request puts the trump initiative he for america's highest court, bringing the nine justices into a national drama over claims the president is abusing his authority. at least 37 people have died at amon know a casino after a gun man attacked and set fire to the complex. in a televised briefing, the police chief said the death toll included the gun man and there was no terror threat. the victims appeared to have suffocated due to the fire. chinese premier li keqiang will continue talks with the european council president and european commission president in brussels later. a statement obtained by bloomberg shows the two sides

want to recognize the importance of developing global free trade and investment. a signing ceremony is due to take place at 11:15 a.m. u.k. time. jeremy corbyn has pledged to create more than a million good quality jobs across britain if his party wins next week's election. the plan would see the creation of a national investment bank to invest 250 billion pounds in infrastructure over 10 years. according to labour, that coupled with regional development banks will have create the new jobs. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. the business community has hit out at donald trump's decision to ditch the virus climate accord. the president made the announcement yesterday, saying the agreement favors other nations at the expense of american workers. >> the paris accord would undermine our economy, hamstring

our workers, we can our sovereignty, impose unacceptable legal risk, and put us at a permanent disadvantage to the other countries of the world. francine: following the news, while disney ceo bob iger and tesla founder elon musk quit the president's advisory council. the move also drove lloyd blankfein to twitter for the first time ever. he wrote, today's decision is a setback for the environment and for the u.s. leadership position in the world. speaking to bloomberg, richard branson expressed his dismay. a very sad day. it's a sad day for the world. it's a sad day for our grandchildren. and obviously as businesspeople we have to pick ourselves up on the global basis and get on and

try to sort the problem out ourselves. francine: all of this comes after lee k chang, the premiere of the world's number one polluter, china, vowed to stick to the paris accord. he's giving a press conference in brussels as we speak. i think we have live images of the premier. he's at a news conference with jean-claude juncker as he continues his european tour. for more on china and this non-climate deal with the u.s. pulling out, let's get to tom mackenzie who joins us from beijing. does it mean that china is less likely to stick with its targets? what has been the reaction there? the reaction is premier league catch on has said they are going to stick to this paris climate change accord. we've heard the same comments in the newspapers and the media here. they are going to double down on

this climate change accord because china has good reasons to do that. it has some pressing pollution issues, whether that is the air, or significant deterioration and damage they have to address. it comes on the back of what many see as retrenchment by the u.s. when it comes to trade. chinas another example of trying to fill the void. they are going to do it successfully or not in terms of trade. there's question marks around that. they have incentives to push ahead with the climate change deal. francine: how seriously his china taking the climate change challenge? tom: they are spending a lot of money. they spent about $88 billion on renewable energy in 2016. they plan to spend about $360 billion between now and 2020.

they hope to generate about 13 million green jobs out of that. the electric vehicles market, it is the largest in the world. the carbon market, they are setting one up in china. green bonds, they are pushing ahead with that as well. there are question marks over the asset allocation involved in the renewables sector here. china is taking this seriously and this question marks over what this means going forward for chinese companies, if they can compete better with u.s. companies that have had the edge in terms of innovation around green technology. that is something to watch for. china is investing very heavily and it doesn't look like it is going to stop. francine: thank you so much. tom mackenzie in beijing. i have also a great map that i urge everyone with the bloomberg terminal to check out. it is the difference between how many clean chinese plants there are compared to the u.s.

in green is biomass. energy storage is yellow. you can see the striking difference between china and the united states. let's bring in luca paolini. also with us, leslie vinjamuri, associate fellow focusing on the americas at chatham house. leslie, i'm not sure what you make of the fact that the u.s. has pulled out, whether it means that trump wants to get back on track, speaking to his base, whether it means the u.s. will be isolated, or whether it is. read in to climate change and his thoughts on it. leslie: i read this as trump trying to secure his base as he looks forward to the midterms and the next election but it doesn't really make sense. what we've seen from much of the data is that 47% of trump voters supported staying in paris and about 28% wanted to pull out. if you look carefully, it is not

clear that donald trump has a very good read on the base. his approval ratings are around 40% but the strong approval part of those ratings have dropped to 20%. there is a perception that he's losing. if you listen to the rhetoric, he framed this very much as about being us versus them, that the world is against the united states. again, that doesn't matter with what we're seeing. americans have broadly supported staying in. there's an alliance to try and devise a coalition to bring governors, mayors, university presidents, and businesses across america to agree they will develop a proposal so that emissions targets can still be met. in the absence of official u.s. participation. it is not clear whether we can do that. it is not clear that a nonstate actor can actually formally be a party, but we will expect to see

very strong drivers to hit these targets. francine: how isolated will the president feel? we saw a couple of his advisers drop out. will he regret this? leslie: i suspect that donald trump probably does find this difficult to sustain politically in the sense that there are many people around him -- we know that his daughter and son-in-law haven't been supportive of this. if you saw the announcement, steve bannon was there. he turned immediately over to scott pruitt. he's got a small coalition backing him and this was a campaign promise. on the same day he announced he would not be moving the embassy, so the idea of pulling back from so many campaign pledges -- but i do think there's a likelihood now that he will begin to feel attacked. the world, europe, asia, there hasn't been anybody standing up and saying this was a good decision either within the united states or beyond.

the support for this is very limited and not likely to be popular. francine: we are still expecting the infrastructure spending, the tax reform, the stuff that businesses want. how will pulling out of paris impact his political capital in congress or the will of business? luca: the kind of impact of this decision is going to be pretty minimal i think in terms of economic impact and for the trump agenda. the u.s. is probably more isolated. i think this decision is unnecessary. but i don't see the short-term, the medium-term impact has been strong. trump's approval rating is not going to be higher or lower. in a few days i think all this will be forgotten. francine: do you agree? leslie: i don't agree. i think this is very significant. there's been so much mobilization politically around

this. it has been very important internationally. it will be just another chunk in the armor that is going to peel away support from donald trump. the level of mobilization across the united states in alliance with the number of very important states globally, on the back of not supporting nato as strongly as the europeans wanted him to, and a number of decisions, will begin to isolate donald trump. i don't think america and americans and the american business community is going to allow this to happen. i think it will be a significant loss for him. francine: would it be crazy to talk about european sanctions? luca: this could be potentially the catalyst for an escalation in trade war. i don't see this happening in the short-term but i think this is the risk. francine: from those side? a trade war started from abroad and then trump retaliating. there are tensions

already. the risk is that the europeans and chinese will impose tariffs on the u.s. because of -- i think it is too early to tell. but that is the risk, protectionism, trade wars. much,ne: thank you so luca paolini and leslie vinjamuri. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. nejra: citigroup is facing the same slowdown in client activity that is dragging on revenue across u.s. investment banks. the ceo told an investor confidence in new york, we are right in line with what the others have said. he was referring to are the remarks from senior executives who indicated second-quarter trading revenue will fall by at least 10%. germany's linde has reached a final agreement for a 35 billion other combination with praxair of the u.s. the deal will create the world's largest supplier of industrial gases, ending months of suspense

about whether the deal would go through. bmw and mercedes parent daimler's u.s. sales dropped 11% and 8.2% in may, although demand did increase. the results reveal a blind spot in president trump's renewed rhetoric that german automakers sell too many cars in america. francine: thank you so much. let's get more reaction to president trump's decision to withdraw from the climate pact. joining us on the line is the you energy minister maros sefcovic. thank you for giving us a little of your precious time. do you think the e.u. will retaliate because of what the president announced yesterday? do you plan any sanctions on the u.s.? >> i think it is very premature to have this type of discussion. i think it is quite clear from the reactions of yesterday and today that the decision of united states federal government

and the announcement of the american president was very disappointing for all of us and will have consequences. agreed on this international treaty which was carefully negotiated, approved, signed, ratified, and already entered into force. it is very difficult to say now we are not going to respect that. francine: a number of ceo's and business leaders have condemned president trump's decision. what consequences are you expecting from businesses and do you believe there will be consequences from european ceo's? mr. sefcovic: first i would like to say that if you look at this from a longer perspective, this decision can be described as a planetary mistake. the decision of the u.s. federal government is trying to push the u.s. back to the second industrial revolution. we are working very closely with

many american cities on the global covenant of mayors. i have seen clear statements of governors of washington, new york, and california, and i'm going to meet governor brown next week in china. i believe the businesses in united states, they know very well where the future lies. they know how the new type of energies like solar and wind are theng in job creation, and american future. we are convinced about that in europe and i would say all over the world. i have strong faith in american businessesamerican really to push america in the right path despite the decision of the federal government. francine: do you think european ceo's will be less likely to invest in certain projects in america?

i'm trying to get how you think. i know it is premature to talk about it, but a sense of how you see the consequences unfolding. reallycovic: i would say very disappointing for me personally because i'm a strong supporter of transatlantic partnership. i had the honor to sign on behalf of the european union. for us it is very regrettable that we are losing such an important ally in fighting climate change. we will work closely with other partners. we had a very important climate summit. in aoing to participate clean energy ministerial and mission innovation session next week in beijing. i have to say that also the mission innovation which was originally the american idea

will have to be kind of cherished and taken over by us europeans. america --that [indiscernible] we of course would be very happy to work with american investors. francine: i have two very short questions. mentioning china. europe has said they want to take the lead with china but also canada. who else do you want for this global partnership? mr. sefcovic: absolutely. we will be working together, all developed nations, not only to make sure our commitment will be honored, because we in the

european union already transformed all our paris commitment into legally binding legislative proposals, and we also want to work with our other g-7 partners to deliver on our promises to the developing world. we are finalizing work on external investment. we want to help the nations of africa to jump over the fossil age because we believe this is responsible policy. francine: commissioner, how much will this withdrawal cost businesses and industries? can you put a figure on it? mr. sefcovic: i think it is very difficult to put a figure on it because it is very difficult to impact onow much such regulatory stability could push down the investment in the new technology, in renewables. at the same time, i hope that

american cities which are very progressive and lots of creative --inesses in united states [indiscernible] investors how the will change if you simply do not want to keep your promises. slowdown inauses investment. this is what we will also see in united states until we see how the cities, the corporate alliances, can figure out what to do next in the united states, in this very important economic scope of the future. francine: thank you so much. e.u. energy minister maros sefcovic speaking to us this morning. it is also jobs day.

it is about climate change but also jobs. nonfarm payrolls do this lunchtime for the u.s. expected to show 182,000 jobs were added in the u.s. down from 211,000 in april. bloomberg intelligence says a further decline in the unemployment rate will overshadow the pace of hiring. investors will be scrutinizing the figures. leslieolini, vinjamuri, both still with us. how much do you look at the jobs report to give us an indication of what the fed does? i grew up saying this was the data point we had to look out. now it is about wage growth and inflation. luca: wage growth is much more important. the labor market in the u.s. is very strong. we have seen some kind of decline in the pace of wage inflation. if wages do not grow as fast as we thought, then the fed can wait. francine: should they wait?

luca: i think they should hike in june unless the numbers are really bad. wage growth is more moderate. i think that will give the fed more extra room for potentially delaying a hike in december. francine: the markets don't really believe that. if you look at fed funds futures, the fed is saying one thing and markets saying you are going to like less than you tell me. the: the big surprise was sharp decline in inflation that took everybody by surprise. i think the u.s. economy continues to grow about 2% even with low inflation. francine: leslie, what is president trump doing for the u.s. economy? it struck me in that speech yesterday, that he said this is going to be good for business and american jobs. can we put a figure on how much he's done for the economy? leslie: i think it is very difficult. a lot of the successes donald trump is claiming aren't the

product of his own policies. they go back to policies and measures that were happening in the economy prior to his election. on the decision to withdraw, it is interesting. the campaign and his rhetoric has been all about job creation. as we know, a lot of the job creation will come out of investment in clean energy. but donald trump is concerned about certain kinds of jobs. he's looking back to that base which stands potentially to lose jobs in very certain sectors. that is an estimate that the data aren't clear and it is a projection that isn't likely to be sustainable politically in terms of the election. there is talk abroad of a coalition that wants to push for america to be competitive in the sectors that will be at an advantage if america stays committed to reducing the emissions targets. i think it is not a sustainable

option that he's made lately. there's no clear benefit coming. he hasn't gotten the infrastructure package through. he hasn't gotten tax reform. he's stuck on most of his key agenda items. that is where we need to see some traction if he wants to pick up that base. francine: does it make it more difficult for the fed to look at longer-term economy, given that we've been promised quite a lot, and it is still soon, but we don't really know where the details of how he will get it through? luca: i think the fed will look at the data on a daily basis. they may have some kind of expectation what the administration could do. i think they will look at the data, inflation, wage growth. i don't think their expectation of what trump could achieve will play a big role in the next three to six months. for now i don't think this is the critical issue for the fed. francine: what is the critical

issue for the fed? is gdp noisy or not? luca: what is interesting about the fed is that they know that interest rates shouldn't be 1%. the fact is that they know this. they want to hike but they are not in a rush because inflation is low. as long as the u.s. economy continues to perform well, they francine: were like almost every single quarter. unless francine: unless there's some kind of a trade war. leslie: or a black swan that we can't predict. francine: does he need to -- how can americans prevent something ugly happening? .rrational decision do they need to make sure he's supported in congress for easy wins? leslie: i don't see that kind of collective action taking place within congress. i think there's a lot of concern about how to respond to and work with this president.

this week, we are about to head act to a different political situation. we've had the quiet of donald trump's first foreign trip, relative quiet, and this major announcement to withdraw from paris. what we are heading to is the spotlight going back to russia when james comey testifies in a few days. the focus of congress is about to be unsettled once again. francine: june 8, a busy day. ,uca paolini, leslie vinjamuri thank you both for joining us. up next, as theresa may entering the car in trade blows -- and jeremy corbyn trade blows, we speak to the former leader of the conservative party, iain duncan smith. ♪

francine: welcome to our weekly brexit show here in london. i'm francine lacqua. let's get a roundup of the big brexit stories. here's nejra cehic. nejra: the pound has been

buffeted by conflicting projections over the general election result. sterling dropped to a more than five-week low after a study they stone a new model showed theresa may's conservatives may fall short of a majority. that came in contrast from a few weeks ago when a comfortable victory was a foregone conclusion. rival party leaders attacked theresa may's decision to skip a debate on wednesday saying it proved she's unfit to lead britain. the prime minister was replaced by the home secretary. may decided not to take part even after labor party leader jeremy corbyn's last-minute decision that he would appear. the u.k. slumped to the bottom of the economic growth table of advanced economies for the first quarter after canada registered strong gdp data. it was the final g7 member to report growth figures which confirmed the u.k. is the joint worst-performing member so far this year along with italy.

global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. just six days until the u.k. election. theresa may and jeremy corbyn have traded blows over which party will negotiate the best brexit deal. >> the question people have to ask themselves is not about how they voted before but who they want to see leading this country in the brexit negotiations. >> we in labour understand that getting the right deal, one that secures our country's interest, will be challenging. that takes serious planning and negotiation, not threats. >> i don't think jeremy corbyn is up to the job. he hasn't got a plan for the brexit negotiations. he hasn't got a plan for building a stronger economy. >> no. i don't do personal attacks. in labour's brexit team, there

is no one who is fit to the british people about spending an extra 350 million a week on the nhs. >> there's only one of two people going to be prime minister. >> the older generation is being reminded of a central truth in british politics. you can't trust the tories. francine: my guest this morning has been a prominent eurosceptic since entering parliament 25 years ago. in 2011 he was elected leader of the conservative party. when the tories returned to government, he was made work and pensions secretary. joining us to talk brexit and the u.k. election, iain duncan smith. to the torypened campaign in the last three weeks? you went from a 20-point lead to plummeting drastically. iain: first of all let's park the polls for a second. if you look at the polls,

there's a range of polls. you tend to be focusing on the one poll that has the worst result. francine: you are less popular now than you were three weeks ago. iain: are we? i never believed what they were talking about was realistic. i think they are lurching around the place at the moment. i don't think they indicate very much. i don't see this on the street and i have done a lot of marginal constituencies. i find labour vote is still very soft. they are unhappy about corbyn. francine: is it still a done deal? iain: i have no idea. we will see on thursday. i'm a great believer in just getting on with the election. what i do know is what i'm seeing on the street. i called the last election, by the way, the only one that did. i said that what i saw on the streets, then we would end at being in power. i called the last two elections.

my view is this time we will still win and have a strong working majority. francine: what tells you that? the campaign is a little bit off track. iain: we've had a terrible incident in the middle of this campaign. that has skewed everything. it meant for a period we weren't able to do any campaigning. we had this tragedy, a terrible terrorist attack. that didn't help matters. it is a tragedy for the people of manchester and everybody else who believes indecency and the rule of law. but also there was this attack about three weeks ago over what was in the conservative manifesto. a lot of the polls have been picking up that period. there's about a three or four sometimes five-day time lag on polling. on any think you can fix point in time. i do believe that what i get from the ground is that the

conservative vote is very strong and very solid. it wasn't always like that. in 2010 it wasn't like that. it is now. the labour vote is still quite soft. people don't like the idea of voting for jeremy corbyn. francine: critics say that your leader, theresa may, has done too many u-turns. what do you tell those critics? iain: what is a u-turn? getting something right is what they are after. they want to know, do you have the courage and the strength to make a decision about something, that if you see something isn't working, whatever with regards to clarifying issues around policy statements, you do that. this is why i'm saying the polls haven't focused on this. this vote on thursday will come down to a very simple question. it will be, on june 9, do you ,ant in front of downing street

this government, this country, this economy run by a man who has never run anything, who has backed every anti-british organization, including terrorist organizations, or someone who has been a successful home secretary -- francine: that is the question you want people to go to the polls on. theresa may has flip-flopped. do you think the snap election was a bad idea given what we've seen in the last three weeks? iain: i think it is right. we've got the biggest negotiation, the biggest decision to take, which is the negotiation on the brexit. what was actually happening is at the end of that, you literally crashed into the next general election. it would have given a strong card to the european union to play, but the pressure on the british government to wait knowing they have to get a deal.

you take that away. you can negotiate without worries about having to go into a general election. it was the right thing to do. she didn't want to do it originally but she was persuaded that this would lead to a stronger negotiating stance. francine: if theresa may wins by a landslide, could she ignore demands for a very hard brexit? iain: i don't believe in hard or soft brexit. the british people voted to leave the european union. it means essentially we are going to take back control of our borders, loss, and money. the most important thing is, i've spoken to many european union businessmen. none of them want to see a kind of standoff or a spitting match the drain the european union and britain. they want a trade deal because they sell so many goods to us. francine: this is not the noise coming out of jean-claude juncker. iain: these are people that have

never run anything. what you are hearing is political nonsense. they said we have to insist the court of justice will hold sway over all the european citizens in the u.k. can you imagine if we said to the united states, all british citizens in the united states only have to the u.k. courts? you would have been laughed at. francine: these are rights that they had before. iain: what they had was, we were all part of the same justice system. we are not going to be. they have no right to demand that. francine: have been led to believe that depending on how many seats the tories win, that brexit will look different. do you tell me that brexit, whatever happens in the election next thursday, brexit won't change? iain: if the conservatives are elected, i don't think there is any difference. what she's looking for is a deal with the european union that keeps us friends, working on

defense, but simply a separate state, but still cooperating within europe. if the labour party gets in, i think you can tear up the rulebook. we will end up with probably a week deal. francine: is 18 months enough to negotiate a deal? iain: it has to be. that is the rule in article 50. i have to tell you, a lot of the nations are already becoming rather uneasy about what the commissioner has been saying. we've heard commentary saying, i wish they would shut up. germany is concerned that this antagonism doesn't help at all. i think what you will find is all that nonsense will go when we sit down at the table. it is in everybody's interest to get a decent deal. francine: i'm being told different things by different sources. iain duncan smith, thank you so much. we have plenty more to talk about. this is our weekly brexit show

live from london. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: welcome to our weekly brexit show. let's get to mark barton. mark: stocks are on track for the first weekly gain after the first monthly rise, which was the best run since december 2013. lots to show you. big day today. trump of course calls the unemployment rate, which is down to 4.4%, otherwise known as the u3 rate, he calls it phony but

he would be pleased to see what is happening in the rate he prefers to look at. yellen has acknowledged it has been coming down. 8.6% is where we are, april capping the biggest three-month slide since 2011. expect 182,000 jobs versus 211,000 the prior month. that 4.4%, lowest level since 2007. more evidence of wage growth will be welcomed today. world interest rate probability, as you can see, ahead of the fed meeting, the probability of a hike in june is almost 91%. column thatis the covers the meeting after june. shows investors aren't exactly optimistic the fed will achieve another rate hike after june. probability below 40% for the

end of this year. just to highlight our wonderful function, look at the top right column. this was the projection. the blue column is the conservative party. 326 is the figure needed. as of that, the tories won't have a majority. another wonderful chart, the bloomberg duke a election implied majority. tells usn see, this the tories will not have a majority. in fact they will be under. a wonderful series of charts showing you brexit is not so important as it was. still the most important issue, health care. 42 tories, 39 labour party. things are definitely narrowing as we approach thursday. francine: thank you so much. this morning we are speaking exclusively to the former leader

of the conservative party, iain duncan smith. you were questioning some of the polls. i want to get back to something we heard from jeremy corbyn, attacking theresa may, saying she is subservient to donald trump. how would you deal with the trump administration? iain: as friends and allies. they are our oldest allies. it is important that we keep america onside. our position has been that we act as a good counsel, good friend. we disagree, we tell them. she told them we disagreed over the paris accord. at the same time, the hope is we can persuade america to play a full or part again. i think that is how we are doing things. it is all well and good for jeremy corbyn to attack anybody for doing anything because he s lifemost of his pro- protesting.

hamas or hezbollah or ira -- francine: which they refute. iain: the truth is he is not a leader. he is just somebody sitting on the top of an engine. francine: is this campaign uglier than other campaigns? iain: most election campaigns get pretty ugly and personal. i suspect that will be the case. as i said early on, the reason is because this is a very critical choice. jeremy corbyn is playing from what i call the bernie sanders playbook. ,ssentially say to everybody whatever you want, you can have. if you've got student loans, we will get rid of them. anything you want, and complain about everything. this is the anti-austerity -- francine: it is what they were saying about the pro-brexiteers 12 months ago. iain: right now we've got a sense of on realism about all this.

nobody has really said, how do you end up paying for all of this? that is the big debate. francine: answer me this, which we still haven't had a clear vision from, what will post brenton -- post-brexit britain look like? iain: theresa may said that yesterday and i think what is critical is, we need to get this sorted out with the european union. there's no reason for barriers. it would suit us to have a terry tariff barrier. from that, very important that we are straightaway on to trade deals. we've been told by australia, new zealand, america -- francine: that could take 10 years. iain: i was in america four weeks ago and they were saying they could get this done within a year. we have huge commonality. it is much easier to do trade deals with companies -- countries that share a similar legal system.

the commonwealth all share english common law. that simplifies enormously. we are the biggest investor in the united states. the united states is the biggest investor in the u.k. when i was in washington, they were saying, we are ready to go with this. let's get on with it now and do it in embryo before you leave. that is what i would ask us to do. francine: chancellor hammond has been absent from the campaign. what is your bet on him staying on? iain: all i can say is he's a very competent individual, very competent chancellor. i would like to see him out examining the labor tax position. promises are being made all over the place. yesterday jeremy corbyn didn't know what his position was on welfare payments. we were told by his spokesman that they would freeze them and he came out and said he would not freeze them, which would cost another 3.9 billion. we need to get into this.

i think there is a genuine misunderstanding about what is going on. this has to come down to the hard nitty-gritty. when you vote for conservatives or labour, you need to know how much you will get. francine: who will be chancellor? when you talk about people knowing what they get, i think the business community would love to know what a reshuffle of the cabinet, if theresa may stays in power, would look like. iain: i really can't. all i can tell you is there are often reshuffles after a general election. you freshen up your team, whatever. theresa know what is in may's mind. i'm sure she's not giving it much thought. i'm sure she will do that on the ninth of june. the business community knows very well that people come and go from political posts. the key question is which political party they are in, not who they are. francine: how would the tories

react to a hung parliament? is there anyone you could form a minority government with? iain: i think if we would be in the situation of a hung parliament, you know what you will get. labour has already said this. they will do a deal with the greens, the scottish nationalists, and the liberal democrats. the biggest threat to the united kingdom, because to get the nationalists on board, they must promise that of the referendum on separation of scotland. that would be a disaster for the united kingdom economically. i think that would be a total disaster. that is what people are going to vote for. outcome, nobody thinks labour is going to come storming back, but the biggest problem would be the chaos that ensues directly after. francine: i've seen a lot of charts and numbers which we need to make sense of. thank you for joining us today. the former leader of the u.k.

conservative party. up next, the virgin group founder calls for unity in the face of protectionism. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: richard branson is among the many business leaders criticizing president trump's decision to leave the paris climate accord. he also told bloomberg the move by america along with brexit means interesting days lie ahead. richard: i personally believe what happened with brexit, the reaction against both will be so strong, and we are beginning to see it in france and i think we will see it in germany, that the world will come back to a much more sensible, normal way of thinking again. and a thinking where nations will work together again in everybody's interest. , let'sole thing about just fight for our country, nobody else's country, just our people, it is horrible. a united world

that works together and fights for all our interest, and i really do think there will be a massive rejection of the kinds of policies that are emanating out of america. i think you will find the way the election is going in england , the party that was for brexit, it had a massive lead. that lead has almost disappeared. you have a party that was almost left of communism having a

nment doesn't support it. francine: that was richard branson. we are also hearing from angela merkel, talking about the paris accord, saying the trump extremelys regrettable. "bloomberg surveillance" continues in the next hour. tom keene will be joining me. cindy margaret interviews from more weighty interviews from the st. forum.urg economic this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ the u.s. pulls out of the paris accord.

corporate backlash. looking for positives. there may job report released at mid-wrangling over the u.s. economy as a global equity rally seized mek up. you has a expands the highest level since august. we speak with omar mccann know. this is francine lacqua in london. tom keene in new york. climate change and the political capital. tom: an exceptionally busy day. this paris accord, we were there. someone asked me, what was it like? i said besides your soiree, the beautiful city hall, what stunned me about the pairs of cord how local it was.

that is what american city states will have to do. they will have to go local on the idea of innovation and climate change versus the rest of the world. francine: i would make 2 points. symbolizesccord something. we sighed after the g7 with angela merkel saying if the u.s. doesn't want a part of it we will go at it alone. seenecond point is i have a lot saying it is not bad for u.s.limate if you have the inside and not playing ball. bloomberg first word news. jessica: president trump taking the battle over his travel ban to the supreme court. nine justices will be asked to reverse lawsuits on an order that temporarily bars entering the u.s. from people from six

muslimty countries. that may jobs report video the less comes out today. the forecast is the economy added 142,000 jobs, and the unemployment for .4%. -- 4.4%. there will be a spotlight on the part-time rate of workers who want a full-time job but are looking. it -- ind no luck, and -- in manila a robbery and not terrorism is the shooting. a casino global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. tom: equities, bonds,

currencies, commodities, a list of the record high markets, as and p, the two cent spread comes in with a vengeance. ever a flatter yield curve, the jobs report, bill gross will join us after the jobs report. oil, oil.il, that is a wow statistic. brent under 50, sterling waiting for thursday. francine, we need more news. we do.e: we don't have anything to talk about today. not climate change, jobs, geopolitics, tom. , the nikkei 225, it finished above 20,000 is significant. we have not seen this since 2015. that is mainly on the back of private american hiring data poster and confidence in the

economy. oil heading for a three-week low as u.s. output expanded. pound, 128.52. tom: commodities, this is the really good math of the index. it is ugly. where we arealue now. here is the early 90's. here is the china boom. a little bit of a bounce. then it gets ugly. you can see this rollover. i don't have a strong opinion. other than to say we watch oil, but there is a lot more going on. francine: we also have to get onto that in the second. i almost did a chart on renewables because of the great math on the bloomberg terminal, but i went for brexit barometer. next thursday, the u.k. election, then the ecb, then comey testifying.

a busy thursday. this is my brexit barometer, bloomberg barometer, looking at measures for inflation, employment growth, and uncertainty. it climbs a little bit, i don't know if it is because of the polls are june 8, but it is an indicator only bloomberg has. trump says the u.s. will exit the climate change. it has caused anger among business leaders and policymakers. and elon musk both quit the advisory council. lloyd blankfein took to twitter for the first time ever saying the decision was a setback for the environment and u.s. leadership in the world. richard branson had this to say. richard: it makes me want to cry that a great country like america is abandoning its duty. this was a voluntary agreement. it wasn't an agreement that was

going to bird america with vast expense. joining us is bloomberg's renewables -- thank you for joining us. i've read a lot of things saying it is better to have a u.s. that is out as long as no more countries follow suit, instead of having a u.s. that stays in the accord and is disruptors. is there truth to that? >> potentially, the less could be very disruptive. it is hard to know exactly how things will fall out. so far the reaction has been other countries more committed tackleever to .limate change galvanized over the bullying tactics from trump. four years of an administration not wanting to tackle climate change may not have that impact. eight years could be pretty damaging. francine: doing no the impact on

onage -- delano the impact businesses, the cost? reaction toknow the this decision. it is pretty negative. add to look are defined any company that praised the decision. if you look at banks, technology, the oil sector, industrials, condemnation's uniform. the business world doesn't see this as a good thing. is awhat we have seen global community versus arena. from where you sit in london, what is the arena? what is the arena the president wants to play in? matthew: like a lot of things that we have seen from the young donald trump administration, pulling out of the transatlantic

partnership, refusing to recommit to article 5 at the nato treaty, this is a move to bricks out of the wall that america built for its own benefit in 1945. we have another signal that contrary to the hopes that perhaps there would be moderate pragmatism from the white house. donald trump does not want the u.s. to play a constructive role in many international forums. on: we have a lot of mmr's the topics. this is david brooks, a phenomenal off fed off of david from "the atlantic." good leaders like lincoln, churchill, roosevelt, and matt campbell understand the selfish elements that drive human behavior, but they have another

foot in the realm of moral motivations. realist wieters like trump, seeks to and cohen dismiss this whole moral round. the athenians ended up making endless enemies and destroying their own empire. with a look at us as the latter-day greeks? that is a very good question. i don't know if it is the greeks were the romans that are the more apt comparison. you did see the new french president coming out quickly with a forceful statement reiterating french support for the paris accord. you are seeing similar statements out of other european capitals. the message is consistent with we are not going to bed america hold us back. we are going full speed ahead. the idea of creating a global order that does not include the world's largest economy and largest military power is a

remarkable development and tells us we are in new territory. francine: i spoke with the energy commissioner for the eu. are we expecting sanctions? can you imagine a world where europe and allies say the u.s. is not doing this, we will put tariffs on their goods. aboutsarkozy was talking it last year when he is running to be french president saying there should be a carbon tax on any country not in the paris record. academics have been talking about putting labels on goods, saying this is from a country in the paris accord. it is probably too early to tell, but the anger we have seen from businesses and other countries suggest there may be support for that. francine: president trump has lost two of his advisors. how will he react? matthew: this decision was

really opposed when it was first floated wide the likes of elon and bob iger. there were reports over the last week of donald trump getting anguished calls from various leaders in the business world telling him "please stay in." he didn't listen. how much donald trump will be fromered losing people an advisory council, i expect not very much. lot of thel get a mmr, and a lot of reaction to the paris accord. we will try to get both sides. ofbody energy is in support mr. trump. there will be more coming up on radio, a television conversation in the crosshairs. gary cohen of the white house in the 9:00 hour. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: "bloomberg surveillance." being with us worldwide. from the business world in our business flash, here is jessica summers. company from germany and america combining to be the world's largest supplier of industrial gases. a final agreement for a combination that ended months of suspense whether the deal would go through. labor unions in germany were opposed.inde the biggest fund in asia by $9.3te equity firm raised billion. that is 55% more than kkr's

second asia fund which has generated 21%. deals in half of kkr's asia this year have been in japan. thank you. now time for the latest u.s. jobs report with expectations of 182,000 additions i may. the 10 year treasury yields ticked lower during the month while the global equities rally continues. 20,000kei topping for the first time since 2015. thank you for joining us. do we care about the jobs report like we used to? world's still the biggest economic number. francine: more than inflation? >> a lot of people are looking

at labor markets to tell you which way inflation may go. really, given the difficulties behind counting gdp in the modern environment with the transfer pricing, it is easy to count people with jobs. it is a reliable indicator going forward. the most interesting part will not be headline numbers. i'm looking at the degree of long-term unemployed, wage growth, these things. plenty of information and intrigue in the details. francine: i like this. this is primary dealers for u.s. treasuries. the means that it shows world's biggest bond firms, goldman sachs, morgan stanley, just boosted their position the most since 2013. what does this tell us about what they are expecting the fed to do? >> the market is not afraid of the fed. it is coming from a low level, not raising interest rates to the levels we have seen historically. the big thing will be when it unwinds its balance sheet.

that remains an unclear position, how it will get rid of the assets it has accumulated during quantitative reasoning. that is when you will see a bond market reaction. that is a bit of a way yet. doing anlast 72-hours end of may early june recess. i am shocked, mark gilbert, the mystery over the economy. why are we having the mystery? why aren't we more certain, market gilbert, about the vector of inflation of economic growth of jobs? why is this? in theecause we are middle of an unprecedented experiment with trillions of economypumped into the by the bank of japan, the ecb, the bank of england, the fed, yet we are not seeing inflation. the textbooks aren't working.

all the things you would have expected to see aren't really happening. go to myd, let's conversation with mr. kaplan of dallas. labor force because the patient. you will see the set 8:30. 90's,go, the 70's, 80's, a lot of it is women in the workforce. this is the great rollover. i was thunderstruck that mr. kaplan looks for a vector of labor participation to be flat to lower versus the optimism. where is jp morgan on this? where do you guys feel labor force participation will migrate to? sideways is up in some ways. you do have an enormous amount of people retiring. reflection of primates participation. 25-55.

if you're looking at slack in the labor market, that is why you find it. primate participation is below the 20 year average, nowhere it reached in previous cycles. e market supply jobs? this may be a blip in the overall participation rates. we are in the midst of a great move into retirement. that line is likely to resume a downward trend at some point later in the cycle. francine: we almost have a similar chart, a real chart. there you go. i added the recession. talk to me about donald trump has in the past said this is a phony figure. is there truth in that? economics is a bit of the game. as david said, measuring gdp is difficult given the changes in technology.

the economy widow people with 5, 6 jobs not capping so much of the data, the data is cloudier than in the past, but there is no question the u.s. economy is adding jobs. it is pretty robust. we are not seeing the kind of wage growth where people feel better and it will revive the animal spirits and boost consumer confidence. at: we will look for that age: 30. wage growth as well. at 8:30.oking -- wage growth as well. our conversation on radio with william gross of janice on the jobs report. i think we can even talk to bill gross about the paris accord. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: "bloomberg surveillance." tom from london and new york. oil is headed for the biggest weekly drop in four weeks as crude production expanded to the largest level since 2015. we will speak with the opec an hour.-general in let's get back to jp morgan

global market strategist and bloomberg gas line strategist. we are below 48. can it go lower? >> sure. shows itical clearly is in the low 50's. it is heading down. the momentum is lower in the short term. in the medium-term, the debate is have we seen the end of innovation in the shale oil space? keep it going to following? the projections, which shall in some ways demand will exceed supply next year as it keeps going down. supply is such a hard thing to grasp. you don't know where the technology will be and it makes it hard to model change. mark: if trump is pulling out of cord, lessf renewables in the u.s. probably means more fossil fuels in the u.s.. shale is expanding, that'll

be exacerbated by the paris accord. inflation is going nowhere. but the eurozone, the european central bank next week, it is not going to meet its target soon. francine: next thursday, the ecb, comey testifying, and the u.k. election. we will be back. live from the st. petersburg economic international forum released big with the opec secretary-general. york..m. in new we speak with the energy secretary in russia. this is bloomberg. ♪

our goal is to inform on the uproar over the paris accord. .ere is dr. el-erian

this is what he is famous for, game theory. they give the united states as deciding to play lead used to be a cooperative global game in an uncooperative manner. the notion the united states can free ride on the climate commitments of others while minimizing its own financial contributions and retaining wide flexibility. many countries find distasteful unilateral transactional approach. this is a brilliant essay. i can't say enough about how this is el-erian's wheelhouse. two days after g7 saying even if brexit happens, even if the u.s. wants to go it alone, europe will be stronger. maybe we go to china and we push forward. this is geopolitics changing,

probably at its most severe. tom: the outcome of both parties in the global community lose. we will have other smart essays on this topic. right now you need a briefing on a friday with our first word news. jessica: the trump administration imposing more on north korea. three people and six enemies have been added to the list. one is a company that is supposed to help the north koreans. gn-un defines an agreement with the missile tests. high drama expected when fired fbi director james comey testifies next thursday before the senate intelligence committee. he is expected to be asked if president trump asked him to drop the fbi investigation into russian meddling into the election. in kabul thousands protested in

the lack of security in the deadly truck bombing in the economic corridor that was supposed to be secured. tear gas was used to try to disperse the crowd. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jessica summers. francine: thank you. less than one week till the u.k. election. i spoke with the former leader of the conservative party. here's what he had to say about next week. >> i believe what i get from the ground, and i know this isn't just me, the conservative vote is strong and solid. i remember in 2010 it wasn't like that. the labor vote is quite soft. people don't like the idea of boring -- of voting for jeremy corbyn.

francine: he doesn't believe the polls. when he speaks to people in london, they still want to vote for the conservative party. depending on how many seats they get, brexit will be harder or not. mark, i don't know what you make of the election. do we trust the polls? the models have changed so much. isk: brexit th frightening. the mood of the country was underestimated. jeremy corbyn is coming across well, theresa may is not coming across so well, and the polls show a shift towards labor. we could be in the situation where there is a surprise outside of london, outside the metropolitan elite, where the message of a guy who looks like a retired geography teacher, coming across as a sane and sensible person, in contrast to the communist he was betrayed as in the press earlier,

nationalizing utilities, people getting cheaper utility bills, removing university fees, that is playing well with a lot of the electorate. francine: you have skin in the game, money you need to play. what is your bed going in? -- bet going in? we always heard all my life living in this country that there is a silent majority in favor of the european union on membership. will the silent majority that wants that responsible leadership come out for the conservative party? right now we would be more the price ofwe see protection hi. i think certain sectors and companies would be badly affected by a hung parliament.

the case of the u.k. will not go away. francine: what does a hung parliament mean? are the tories out? whoever is the largest party will have the first go at forming a government. the whole uncertainty itself fully to a trip maddock weakening in sterling. not as big as the brexit vote let down in the one 20's against the dollar. we will have to see what comes out of the negotiations. on june 9, friday, whatever that monday is, where will the negotiating stance of the united kingdom gain? has it changed? if it is not theresa may with a clear majority, it will change. this is an election immediately

preceding the start of the most complex and important negotiations this country has had. it is one of the reasons why markets are being a little ofcombobulated by the lack knowledge by what the government is going to be and the start will be. if you had a progressive alliance, even formalized in a coalition, that would mean more of a softer brexit, even if you were to involve the liberal democrats. pledging to put whatever is condtiated to a se referendum. negotiation's could shift dramatically. the responsel be of europeans in america? the number one rank with but the stew in itsom' misery. they'redon't think

worrying about the u.k. domestic political situation. this is an opportunity for the european union to come together in a way that it has lacked. it is showing coherence and cohesion. i don't think they are spending a lot of time worrying who has the top job in the u.k. parliament going forward. is, let's say theresa may won by a landslide, does brexit become softer because she can ignore skeptics? hard to tell what theresa may generally thinks about brexit. favor of brexit, can you handle negotiations? in theory she was against brexit and was on the side of the remainers. a successful brexit is believe inbut do you

it? she would not answer the question. negotiator has written books. he is a very rational person with regards to europe. that they have negotiating on your half on the brexit negotiation. francine: the snap election from her point of view? david: even if she gets a majority less than 50, it will be seen as a failure. if she goes to having three years with a small majority to having a hung parliament, it is a catastrophic decision that will echo through decades as one of the worst decisions to call an election in u.k. political history. mark: after brexit we had a muddled political situation where it looked like they would be a leadership fight that would be damaging for the tory party. the candidate fell away and

theresa may emerged as the leader. if she loses and a lot of seats in the election, her position is challenged. is a tory party majority, but smaller, and you have a leadership battle within the tory party, that is almost the worst of all possible worlds. david: it is. francine: thank you. both, stay with us. coming up on monday, exclusive interview with the j.p. morgan chase chairman jamie dimon. london, 12:00 a.m. in new york. bloomberg. talking with jamie dimon about china and asia. ♪

"bloomberg surveillance." francine and tom from london and new york. a lot of our time is talking about the u.s. jobs report today. a lot of our time is focusing on accord of which president trump yesterday said he would pull out of. we're hearing from the commissioner of climate change for europe. he is saying that actually they will not be able to renegotiate the accord. there are two questions. this is on the back of the news conference we were following yesterday in donald trump said he would renegotiate. also, whether a private sector company or alliance could take the place of the u.s. there are a lot of legal issues we need to keep an eye on. china, the ftse index comprising china's largest companies surged

6.4 percent, climbing to the higher level versus the larger shanghai index. the performance is being driven by government policy, including a regulatory campaign to curve leverage. dave andod back to mark. this is the news we had today. overall, david, what is your take on china? we had interference or intervention in the currency markets. the premier saying they are more open and they want growth, but cracking down at home. recent weeks and months have shown they are finally the liability side of their banking system. it is welcome to see they are addressing it in some limited way. -- tom: we have some technical

difficulties in london. on surveillance this morning, we have a substantial morning must-read off the paris accord. we will bring this into the jobs report here that's go back to london and mark gilbert our columnist as we discussed this world news. mark dilbert, china was the bad guy in the rose garden yesterday. how does t beijing respond? mark: there are a lot of articles saying the u.s. is seceding global leadership to china. there is a great article pointing out that china sometimes does what it says it is going to do, sometimes it breaks the rules, but this is a political opportunity for china to step up on the political stage and show leadership on climate change and the environment.

tom: this goes off the j.p. morgan research desk. they have the animal spirits within their unique capitalism to do the innovation required, or do they do what they have done for ages, take it from us? can.: i think they if you look at a range of indicators from filings to the certainy of rmb in sectors, it is going up fast for the next generation of tech revolution. if you look at climate change in china, you have to see statistics about how much of their ground water is polluted. you know this is no longer an esoteric will issue. this is day-to-day life. they are upset about it and china will try to fix the

problem. in doing so, the scale of the investment will generate innovation. tom: huge dynamics. a wonderful article in "the new york times" says china has a and 30th for 20 years years. the last paragraph of the aticle says the u.s. is bigger polluters and china actually. yale university. francine: i think china is of new cities and infrastructure. this is a snapshot today. five or 10 years, i think china will pick up and become the biggest polluter in the world. exxon mobil, shareholders voted against the board in demanding it take into account climate change and delineate how

that will affect business going forward. the private sector will step in. if you look at the back climate approaching 30 $4 trillion, about half of all of the funds under management -- $34 trillion, about half of the funds under management. ourcine: i want to bring viewers and listeners on london radio a little breaking news. last 20 minutes, we understand from the crown prosecution service, there is evidence to charge three people for crimes for conservative party expenditure during the 2015 election campaign. it is six days before the snap election on the eighth. you could argue just by reading that out it doesn't look good for the image of the conservative party.

the conservative party is hitting back saying the charges are politically motivated. this is one of the first times as far as i can remember that one of the major parties is saying the crown prosecution service, which should be completely independent, is doing something because it is motivated politically. this is a snap election on june 8, then there was brexit on june 28. this investigation is not those 2? francine: if you look at the 16 months afterwards then thebrexit referendum. for legitimacy reasons, theresa may goes to the snap elections. this goes to 2015, the election of david cameron did much better than any of the polls were saying. truth,hatever the

whether there has been fraud in the election, accusing the crown prosecution service of being partisan is a dangerous game. we have seen that in brexit where the judges are accused of bias. david: and we see it in america as the president tries to get the travel ban through. it is concerning about where the debate is going in the democracies of the moment, and the neutraleat institutions around democracy, which makes democracy possible, are under attack. it is worrying indeed. francine: if you have questions or comments, go on to tv . if you are a bloomberg customer, you can look at data checks and what we have broken in the last 20 minutes. you can ask a question to david

and mark by clicking underneath the video. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: "bloomberg surveillance." an incredibly busy friday.

thank you for being with us worldwide and across america as you wake up on this jobs day monday. we're joined by mark gilbert and david stubbs. let's dovetail away from the paris accord. we'll get to that in a bit. jobs day in the central banks. give stops, i wanted to you the most perfect optimistic chart i could give you. the red lines are the recessions. this is population adjusted jobless claims in the united states. all you need to know is we have never been here. why are we having a debate about raising rates moving from ultra accommodative when we have claims population adjusted is low, low, low as much as they have been since the 1970's? david: i don't think there's much of a debate about where policy is going to go. we have the meeting in june.

i think it is a done deal for a rate hike. as mr. kaplan said this week, a gradual movement of accommodation is likely. the labor market indicators like the one you just showed will continue. one important indicator is there have been changes about who can claim jobless claims that win. that is why they are heading -- jobless claims and when. that is why they are hitting a new low. the labor market in the u.s. is tight. there is drawing people in from the sidelines and participation. think you can take that a step further for job growth in the next couple of years. as long as this continues, the fed will gradually move accommodations. tom: we talked about 2 americas, are there 2 europes?

mark: we are seeing convergence for the first time. great italian gdp figures. the ecb's job is getting easier and terms of the constituency it is setting policy for. it remains hard because inflation is nonexistent. jpmorgan is predicting inflation will slow next year in the year after. there is a sense that the that we from bundesbank need to take some of the accommodation away -- that is not clear in terms of the inflation. other indications are that you want to start taking away some of the qe. it will be interesting how mario draghi kos with that pressure. copes with that pressure. we have had five years of arguably, with the ecb

policy. why change if you don't have to? tom: let me set up the rest of the morning. bill gross will be with us. radio, great market economy. us,rey sachs one join whether you are for or against the president's initiative. we will speak with one of the most thoughtful people in .merican democracy on the arena we have great morning must-read s to fold into this. the cloud on the right of the building is not smog. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ it will be pittsburgh.

jeffrey sachs on china as compared to west virginia. elon musk, lloyd blankfein, no.thy cook just to say it is jobs day and a significant mastery of with the path of inflation and america's economic growth. theyoroughs may decide as dashed in next thursday. i am tom keene. electorally turmoil in london. headlines on the ghost of an election from 2015. how bad is prime minister may's midday lunch? francine: we need to wait for the new polls. a quickie comment that depending comment that depending on what you look at it is a different picture. it goes back to expenses from 2015. what surprised me, and a lot

people watching the u.k. election, is the crown prosecution, an institution that is independent, said we are investigating this person from 2015, a tory party from parliament. then they came out said this is politically motivated. this election feels different to anything we have seen before. they're weighing the prospect of theresa may winning the election next thursday. shakespearean drama in francine lacqua's london. american business leaders firing back at president trump's decision to walk away from the paris climate accord. lloyd blankfein took to twitter for the first time calling the president's decision a step back for the environment and u.s. leadership in the world.

iger and elon musk announced they were resigning from a presidential jobs panel. president trump has taken the battle over the travel ban to the supreme court. the nine justices will be asked against theawsuits order that bars injuring the u.s. from six predominantly muslim countries. the may jobs report for the u.s. comes out today. forecasted the economy added jobs last month and the unemployment remained at 4.4%. there will be a spotlight on the underemployment rate including part-time workers who want a full-time job and those that want a job that are not looking. nila an attempted robbery is the reason for a casino attack that left 37 people dead. the gunmen storm the resort, set it on fire, and fled with stolen casino chips. the gunmen killed himself.

victims died of smoke inhalation. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. check, we have data moving. we're not going to race through this. further curve flattening, nowhere near recession discussion, but a sharper re-flattening. oil shocks, a 46 handle on american oil. brent crude well under 50. women be off of a strong yuan this week -- renminbi off of a strong yuan this week. the nikkei finished above 20,000 points, the first time since 2015. 56.nd, 128. aree down, all of the

moving. it is below $47. am: trying to give you cross-section off of what we heard in the rose garden. gentleman from the obama administration. out of the massachusetts institute of technology. is thel job killer failure to invest adequately in .nnovation the advantages america gets from investments differentiate us from our competition in a highly competitive marketplace. the administration's ledger proposal would propel china and european countries into a clear lead over the u.s. in clean energy animation investment. quite a moment yesterday.

the silliness, the fake news, fact check dynamic off of yesterday? >> we have seen several fact checks, everything from the paris agreement makes the u.s. no longer able to produce coal here that was fact checked and untrue. we are seeing stays and country saying they are going to continue and not renegotiate the way president trump wants to do. the president seems to be in his reality that he can renegotiate with these countries. the countries do not seem to want to take this up. tom: what has been the response from mr. kushner to what mr. trump did yesterday? kevin: a loud silence from the first daughter and son-in-law who pushed for staying in the

paris agreement. they likely have seen themselves as losers in this battle in the white house. people like steve bannon are able to convince the president to keep this campaign promise. we were able to see both ivanka trump and jared kushner were not in the front row they think normally are when donald trump makes announcements. sachs'e: we saw goldman ceo tweet for the first time calling in a setback for the world. the musk and bob iger quit advisory council and protest. president is probably starting to realize there are so many people against this move he is looking more like an isolationist. countries saying this agreement will go forward without the u.s. come the businesses saying they will push forward with the climate goals, and to cities and states saying

they will ignore what the president said and in force compromises with other countries to keep the responsibilities. the president is finding himself on his own. even people like macron saying let's make theen world great again" and inviting scientists to come to france. francine: the travel ban, is this president trump saying, i promised things in my campaign and i will go through them? have seen an internal struggle between the moderate ists who the popul say the president should go through with what he campaigned on. the president feels like this travel ban is legal and what he needs to keep the country safe. some people say the president

should move on from the fight, but it is clear he has doubled down. taking it to the supreme court, trying to get it through. tom: thank you so much. this is why we do "bloomberg surveillance." or against are for the initiative, we need conversation from experienced experts. jeffrey sachs, who has not only worked in the realm of russia, butcs and thinking about climate change before it was called climate change. he is from columbia university. thank you so much for showing up. what does the chief executive officer of exxon mobil need to forward climate change, like other corporate leaders? happened to exxon mobil last week when

shareholders against management voted overwhelmingly to demand exxon mobil issue systematic reports about what climate change means for the business model of exxon mobil was a shareholder revolt. vulnerable, we need to hear the truth. it was an overwhelming victory. already the management is on alert. they are being sued all over the country for lies they told in the past. is they have to get out of the president's council. your camera out. he has his notes written down. this off of business insider. we have stephen schwarzman on the president's council, doug mcmillon of walmart on the president's counsel, very bar -- mary barra on the president's

council. ill on musk and bob iger walked out yesterday. bob iger has clearly made a statement through his philanthropy on what he thinks of call. cohn said: is going away on a technological standpoint. how far behind on technology is the president's thinking? jeffrey: the president lives in a dream world that would take us back to the 19th or 20th century. your childhood in detroit, mine in rochester, we are going back to the 1970's? jeffrey: that is his mental image. the mayor of pittsburgh said, no. we want to stay in the paris diamond the court. the president doesn't know what he is doing. i'm sorry tot,

say. what is happening is real politics. carried outctory for 20 years by 2 people, david and charles koch. that is why ryan and mcconnell have been championing the spirit because the koch brothers have financed -- tom: electoral votes. why does west virginia listen to jeffrey sachs? jeffrey: 70% of the american public say stay in the paris climate agreement because there are no jobs in the coal industry left. 20,000: miners out of 150 20,000 coal miners out of 150 million. this is all about the koch brothers who have bought the republican party. mcconnell's letter, 22 senators calling on him to do this. trump is a tool in this.

this is republican leadership, not trump's fantasy world. francine: you call the president names. no matter what you think personally, he was elected democratically. does his base care about what he did with the climate accord? even the businessman you were talking about, will this be forgotten because they will move on to something else? jeffrey: you will not be forgotten because climate risk is one of the biggest dangers facing humanity. everyone knows this. those.ccepted by those in the oil industry have tried to hide this. the put the koch brothers have created and funded. the institute for energy research, cato foundation, reason foundation. senseave created a phony that you could get away with

wrecking the planet. tom: can they get away with this? jeffrey: absolutely not. the whole world stood up and said this is the most absurd thing america has done. tom: love so much to get through. -- we have so much to get through. mr.fferent message for cohn on the white house. from new york and london, stay with us. jobs day. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning. thank you to the huge response jeff's comment.

calling the president an idiot we got some feedback on that. continuing, i believe there is a jobs report at 8:30 and we can look at the u.s. economy. the job report is a big deal. i guess it is not, but underneath it is a big deal. what under the headline numbers matters to you? rate andemployment wage growth. they have been going in different directions, or both going down at the same time, not what we are supposed to see. royal was part of the american economy and has been a huge stretch nudging us to the numbers. squishing us. is it now retail?

>> the private service sector and retail is the at the center of a huge transformation. it has been a pillar of job creation so far for this recovery. that is something we are losing traction in. energy is picking up a little slack. francine: when it's wage growth going to come back in force? >> we are seeing that rollover even in sectors that are supposedly tight like construction. wage growth is not picking up steam. on the face of it, it tells us there is slack in the labor market. core inflation is also slipping. the nominal side of the economy jobosing steam even as the market looks healthy. perhaps there is more room to of inform -- in terms picking up slack. we probably need to spend a few

years below it to get the wage growth picking up. there isi think another important thing happening. the technological change is working against labor because of , improvedines robotics, artificial intelligence. we are seeing something that is not traditional macro tightness, we are seeing passages are option and structural change keeping wages falling for a large part of the population. that is important to take into account. what, overall, how would you describe the u.s. economy? of days agoouple that if you look at world growth, he believes the u.s. weaker overall is a quality than europe. that to me sounds worrying. is true that europe is

in a sweet spot cyclically. brutalweathered 2 recessions and getting cyclical traction. they have pent-up demand left to go. we are late cycle. we have seen the auto sale surge and consumer come back, now we are in the late cycle pace. that is not terrible news, just juice me of the cyclical is spent and we are settling into a lower pace of growth. ok,re humming along, it is at the lowest hanging fruit is behind us. we have to look to other areas. unfortunately, the same can be set of china, which is also slowing down. cycle, butrolong its it is going towards a lower trend. e is one of the few regions

left.yclical umpf the rest is late cycle slowing down. tom: we will do the jobs report. on bloombergd i radio, then a conversation with well in gross from janus capital on jobs. and more importantly, bill gross on the financial system. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: "bloomberg surveillance." with francine and tom from london and new york. six days away from the election. the u.k.'s crown prosecution service announced it was charging three people dating back to 2015. the conservative party called the charges politically motivated. the case is caught the attention of the crown prosecution service on the 18th of april. thank you for joining us. what happened this morning, and what are conservative saying? 2015this relates to the election and one constituency. this morning, the police announced they were charging , the people craig mckinley candidate in 2015 and elected

member of parliament, conservative member of parliament, and is a candidate this time. agent,gray, his election the person responsible for running your campaign, and marion little, i believe an official at the conservative headquarters are in a london. they have been charged in false statements about election expenses. the law in person is that is dividedending into local and national expenses and there are limits set for each one. it is higher for national expenses than local expenses. the ideas to stop people from buying elections. the suggestion is with they have been charged with is making false statements and local expenses. francine: thank you.

the crux of the story is the conservative party says the charges are politically motivated. we know the crown prosecution service is meant to be independent. this gives you a snapshot of the tone we are seeing ahead of the snap election on june 8. jeffrey sachs and julia coronado will stay with us. coming up, we are live from the st. petersburg economic forum speaking with the opec secretary-general, mohammad barkindo. we will talk about the price of oil. then we will see to the energy minister of russia. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning. we have an exceptional news flow today. this is your first word news.

jessica: american business leaders are fine back at the decision to walk away from the paris climate accord. goldman sachs ceo took to twitter for the first time. he called the decision a setback for the environment and for u.s. leadership in the world. disney ceo bob iger and elon musk announced they are resigning from a presidential jobs plant -- panel. three people have been added to the list. one is a moscow-based company saying to have helped the north koreans. they are defying you and resolutions with missile test. the russia investigation goes public next week. i drama is expected when james thursdaytifies next before the senate intelligence committee. he is expected to be asked of

president trump asked him to drop the investigation into russia meddling in the election. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. i am jessica summers. tom: thank you so much. part of the jobs day coverage today, it's retail. in fayetteville arkansas, emma chandra is looking at a rigged ricks and mortar retailer, walmart. emma: it's good to see. it's dark and rainy in they at bill this morning. about 14,000 shareholders and employees will be arriving here later this morning and the big focus for walmart is e-commerce. it's different than last year. when you look at the operation, they had a big shakeup as they try to go after amazon, their biggest competitor.

makinge focusing on delivery cheap and orders convenient. they are going to start using store employees to help deliver that extra mile. that's the latest news out of walmart. tom: they've got 2.3 million employees. the point of tension for management at this annual meeting? one of the things i've been hearing from investors as they are happy with management. this is the most customer focused they've then in a long time. it's not about amazon and keeping online. one of the investors i spoke to said amazon doesn't need to fail for walmart to succeed during -- succeed. macy's and sears are struggling. as the european discount retailers are coming to america, the big price cutters have

devastated walmart in the u.k.. investors want to know what walmart is going to be doing to take on little. tom: thank you so much. with us is julian coronado. jeffrey has a new book out. the movies have been so successful. he did another book for hollywood. >> it does seem like fiction. tom: let's go clay christiansen. the word disrupt is in vogue. on 2nd avenue, they've never seen disruption like this. jeffrey: we are in one of the greatest technological revolutions of the last 200 years. it is changing every thing. the question comes back to the climate.

who is going to win this race? china has adopted industrial china they call made in 2025. they are going for the future. smart shipping, smart vehicles. robotics. advanced technology. what are we doing? we are trying to go back to the 19th century. cold. are you kidding? this is handing the industrial leadership to outside the u.s. tom: let's look at the america first policy. this is jeff bezos penny stock. this is amazon. what is so important about the chart is not the story, it's the persistency of the innovation trend. this is one example and retail. how this government in still innovation into an american society?

juliette: i don't think it's a problem. the innovation is there and consumers are voting with their dollars. they are changing the way they consume in the industry is responding by how they are delivering. it creates some challenges for what does the workforce of the future look like and do we have an education system that delivers the workers to the firms with the right skill set. that's an issue for government policy. the innovation is the problem. anding the right training the right education system that is flexible enough and animated enough and have those technical skills, that's where policy questions lie. jeffrey: on an upward trend like this, remember the role the government played in standing up the internet and standing up self driving vehicles and think

of the role of the usgs in fracking for that matter. the role of government in spurring technological innovation has been enormous in the united states since world war ii. this administration is trying to destroy it. they close down or they are trying to close down our pet e. it's the advanced research program ford vans to energy. we are saying we are not going to do it. just handed over to china and other countries. that's the america last policy. francine: there must be something they are getting right. equities are higher. animal spirits are back. it seems businessmen are focusing on deregulation that we hope will come soon. they are focusing on tax reform. that will deliver growth. jeffrey: this is the most trivial population -- populism.

the idea that a little bit of a stock market up is proof of anything has been proven wrong 10,000 times in our modern economic history. the administration is not getting anything right. it's a disaster and the worst we've had in modern history. francine: do you agree? julia: i don't think this administration is valuing the kinds of research and development and future looking policies that jeffrey is outlining. i also agrees it putting too much weight on signals coming from the stock market, lesser member that china ingested investment and that lifted the global cycle. that left a lot of company

prospects. this is not coming from the u.s. can't standple that you all read your books about the desperation of the new america where we are all back in nostalgia. bring up the banner here. this is the heart of the matter. arkansas --s horses versus arkansas. this is a great american divide between the northeastern corner of arkansas and jeff azo's -- bezos. how do you bring them together? appealed to that lagging belt. he told them lies. he said the problem you face is china and muslim immigrants. the problem they face is they bettertter education, health care, better services. they need help to become an

event of part of america. the bernard bail and own high ground. is that were we are heading? ?he people from arkansas jeffrey: what happened in pittsburgh is not donald trump's fantasy. what happened to pittsburgh is carnegie mellon university. pittsburgh is one of the high-tech centers of the united states around carnegie mellon's leadership in advanced robotics and computers. it's not to re-create 19th-century industry. trump doesn't know what he's talking about. juliette: the people in arkansas have to compete in a global workforce and that's not going to change. nothing trump can do can change that. tom: we have commercials.

we are out of time. we have gary: on leader today. can i say that an offspring went to carnegie mellon? it was a very good thing. there is a jobs report today. bill gross at 830 a.m. stay with us. ♪

tom: look for our u.k. coverage thursday on the election into friday morning as well. we've got jobs day. we are talking about the politics of the paris accord.

here's jessica summers. jessica: t-mobile is setting the stage for a merger with sprint. t-mobile executives have been meeting with investors to talk of the potential. the discussions between t-mobile and softbank are still at an early stage. cashing oner is demand for smartphones. the forecast revenue for the quarter beat estimates. the chips are used in smartphones made by apple and samsung. a jury in connecticut will decide when line becomes fraud. ofy will decide the fate three traders. the defendant say they tactics were commonplace. that's the bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much. it's time for the jobs report.

additional 182,000 jobs created in may. it comes in a debate over central bank policy and communication. soft inflation could cause her to rethink monetary policy. to julia corner otto and jeffrey sachs. let's start with you. is there a disinflationary pressure problem? julia: yes. in oil, we focus on the supply story. there is a demand story. we had a reflation trade that came with a surge in china and that is rolling over. there is a lot of supply and subdued demand. the commodity complex has rolled over. inflation, at core it speaks to the technology issue and the globalization

pressures. isding those pressures elusive. even here in the u.s., the labor market is doing well. i think the fed is going to struggle to explain themselves not in june so much but in september when core inflation is still 1.5% and wage growth is below 3%. why are you tightening policy? that's going to be a harder hill to climb when they get to september. francine: are we measuring things wrong? do we need to get used to it because of the shared economy? julia: the reason it matters for the fed is because we are so close to the zero. if you don't get away from the inflationary pressures, we don't know.

that's an open question. if central banks don't do it they can to facilitate that, they are going to end up with balance sheet policies that no one really wants. it's better to be patient now to the degree you can let that build. tom: bring up this chart if you will. this is core pce. the vector has been up. it rolled over here. as you know, the professor in charge of herding cats is now at pimco. this is the sge modeling. do the models work anymore? utah at those models at the highest level. he has told me he is not sure they work anymore. do they still work? is one of my favorite former students and colleagues. macro of crisis

management actually did work after 2008. i think heart of the problem of our discussion is everything became a discussion of business cycles, not of long-term growth. the problem with the united states is not the business cycle. ae problem is we don't have long-term growth strategy. that's the real problem. we are stuck in the short-term kilis, in a consumption led mindset but long-term growth is not about consumption. it's about investment. that's what we should be focusing on. why are the investment rates so low? why is public investment being held back? we digging deeper in reducing the national savings new i proposing massive budget deficits on top of the

budget that is unsustainable western mark tom: sitting to your left is an economist who nailed that. they nailed this low growth regime. you said we don't need to cut taxes. there are a lot of people that disagree with you on that. what would be wrong with driving the obama tax lift back to the normal run rate of federal taxes. jeffrey: we have a chronic budget deficit that the obama administration handled responsibly -- irresponsibly. this is up to about 77%. they doubled the debt to gdp ratio. ofhave a underlying deficit gdp. trump would get into massive fiscal crisis. everyone likes tax cuts. no one wants to pay taxes.

we need government investment and services. we have to balance the budget over the business cycle. we don't do that. cut taxes.lly the savings rate has gone to new -- near zero. tom: we will continue. let me show you. even those on the right can watch jeffrey sachs on tv and get up jessop said. you can come back over here. you can see even more of jeffrey sachs. worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: coming up shortly, daybreak america with david westin. david joins us now. i know you will be focusing on david:s report aired --

david einhorn had a very big week. meeting iseholders next week. the market is not responding. we will take in detail why he thinks his plan will work. also, what it means for greenlight capital. we will have an exclusive interview with avon einhorn. single are looking at best chart here. i think this is cool chart. so does mr. kaplan. labor force protection patient. line, the pulle down here. then we've got this opportunity set out here. i was stunned at what kaplan said. label --es a lower labor force participation.

how critical is this? is there any optimism we can get back to where every politician would like us to get to? julia: i think it's very important. how much of the labor force -- population is engaged in work. i am optimistic. inhave seen a huge rebound female labor force protection patient among prime age workers. excluding the retirement of the baby boomers and the aging effect which does have a dampening effect, prime age workers, there is scope to get them back to you let that wage growth gain some traction. i think you can get people back. tom: what is the policy prescription to restart this? i think of lbj and tax credits. what can washington due to migrate this? jeffrey: this is high school

educated and below. college educated doesn't show this trend. this is the elimination of jobs by tech knowledge he. that means more skills and it means more leisure time. americans work hundreds of hours more than european counterparts in very prosperous societies. part of the way we enjoy the benefits of improved technology is more flexible work and shorter work hours. what has happened in america is the divide between those with college degrees and above and those with high school and below has become too societies. bottom,pealed to the but he is hurting their interests every single day. still confusing innovation with globalization? julia: i think they are tied together.

it's difficult to separate technology and globalization. means youral process workforce goes everywhere it needs to go. they are inextricably linked. i think it's possible the technology is the bigger factor that facilitates globalization rather than globalization per se. tom: we've got to do this again. i am begging you. thank you so much. what a week. foreign-exchange report. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: the president ditches

the climate accord and they push back. ceos come out swinging. can the labor market deliver another positive surprise. jobs.ists predict 182,000 markets keep grinding higher. u.s. equities hit a record. from york city on this payroll friday, good morning and a warm welcome. i am jonathan ferro with david westin and alix steel. we have a huge lineup of guests to react to the payroll report. gross andar from bill gary cohn from the white house. with30 a.m., we will speak david einhorn about the proxy fight with gm. watch for all of that coming up.