tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg August 21, 2017 1:00am-2:30am EDT
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anna: president trump makes a primetime speech on afghanistan in a bid to reset his presidency after steve bannon's departure. manus: the u.k. government thisshes the first of week's five position papers as it seeks to's shift -- to shift discussion toward a trade bill. refugeefending the crisis as martin schulz steps up his campaign. looking back, if the situation was identical to the one in 2015, i still think my decision was right. of course, we have done a lot to ensure it will not be repeated this way.
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collidesu.s. worship with an oil tanker to near singapore. ship collides with an oil tanker near singapore. ♪ anna: a warm welcome to our flagship show in the city of london. the week we are getting ready for, jackson hole, a lot of job owning at the end of the week. the u.s. and south korea will have drills. what does it mean for the bond market? this is the charlottesville it shows you. yields creeping higher. speculation that cohan could disappear. -- cohen could disappear. the bond market have a week of terminal -- turmoil.
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2.2%.t to we broke the 100 day moving average to .28% on the prospect, on the threat of war with north korea. come in retail sales strong and be trump administration basher to the bond market. anna: what with the ballots -- the intrigue and the terror north koreanhe peninsula, there was plenty to trade around. is it going to be a quiet week? we have the jackson hole event coming up. a action list jackson as we need to keep in mind our expectations here. a quiet week as well. on the risk radar we put in how equity markets are doing. through,mes coming major political themes still in the market.
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near a nine-month high because of those political tensions, hedge funds and investors, all that information interesting. at 5% store this morning yield. we were split on this on whether it should be the euro over dollar. it is going to be action less. draghit be that mario steal the limelight? reduced longy has they haveon the euro, dropped them by 14,000. it does not sound but -- like a lot. systeme a traffic light used by mario draghi when he wants to shift the currency >> -- currency -- current? anna: we will digest some of that. if you have low expectations, you think that what we saw in the meaty -- the meeting last
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concernched flagging of . certainly a headline to on. let's go to the first word news update. juliette: thank you. are missing and five injured after a u.s. warship collided with a tankard. search-and-rescue is underway after the john mccain collided. the extent of big damage and injuries with initial reports suggesting the guided missile destroyer suffered damage portside. it is the second crash involving animation -- an american vessel in asia in a matter of months. u.s., mexico, canada ending the talks on a new north american free trade agreement. they wrapped up negotiations quickly with a far-reaching deal. next round of talks is scheduled. start ofled for the
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next month in mexico and back to the u.s. in october. additional rounds being planned for the remainder of the year. next to tough international investors to raise financing instead of relying on government funding at the impact of the ongoing saudi led boycott puts pressure on liquidity. the central bank is holding regular meetings with lenders to gauge how the standoff is affecting liquidity. it is encouraging banks to borrow internationally through bonds and loans to avoid depletion of credit rating downgrades. britain has returned to a provocative posture one week before brexit talks with the european union pivoting discussions toward a trade deal. theresa may's government will publish new papers this week. that is after declaring yesterday that it is stepping up pressure on the block to shift negotiations away from terms of separation. big ben will fall silent at noon
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u.k. time today as parliaments elizabeth is set to go under major work. gathering to witness the final gong before the times of silence to allow the repair to begin. the four-year limitation project. -- renovation project. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . it has been a fairly mixed start to the trading week. disappointed earnings weighing in on australia's market. you have the yen of fluctuation by .4%. have a look at the hand saying, up by .5%. china's rules coming in on friday. there has been support in china as well. the rally here is inditex players. in terms of stocks, we're watching in detail. china unicom rising in the
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market, turning unicom shares up by 7.5% in hong kong. after an $11.7 billion sale. some of those disappointing earnings in australia. afterst in six years earnings and a lower forecast for next year. very well up 6.5% after it tripled the dividend payment and said further payments are to come amid these higher prices. or, it shows you that china iron ore inventory is at record highs. througha rebound coming in the iron ore contract. results tomorrow, the world's largest and an analyst saying bhp is under further pressure to increase its payments to investors as well. president trump will make
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a primetime speech about afghanistan and south asia this evening as he looks to get his presidency back on track. the address falls the departure , steve bannon.st -- greaty, thank you to have you again. what will be the focus of trump's speech later on today, what is his strategy in delivering this speech? he wants to change the conversation. it has been a tough week. several weeks. he has been on vacation having a working vacation for 17 days. away from washington. we have had the charlottesville incident and the discussion about white supremacist violence. had's -- steve bannon leaving the white house. the war of words with north korea.
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he wants to appear more statesmanlike and is going to be giving this speech from an army post miles from the white house which his advisers hope will be a good backdrop for trying to be more statesmanlike and talk about afghanistan and southeast asia rather than these other shoes -- issues. what do we think we can hear from him on afghanistan? exactly.'t know steve bannon was against inreasing troop levels afghanistan yet other members of his cabinet including his defense secretary and secretary of state want there to be more advisers, more u.s. troops as a advisory capacity to the afghans there and they want to keep apart -- a presence there. one would think because he is gone and the members of the cabinet are likely pushing for
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this. we will see something along those lines. anna: the latest news overnight about the uss john mccain, running into trouble around singapore. we wonder if this will be a feature as well. kind of reset button is president trump trying to hit? >> he wants to try to appear more statesmanlike. obviously with a war of words with north korea that caused great tensions and turmoil in the market, with charlottesville and all of the discussion around that and lost a lot of support of the business community, he really wants to try to reset it and do the presidential statesmanlike appeal from an army base. talk about things that seem more searches and will see more scripted and talking about serious issues like foreign policy. this is what the president's in
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the past, the question is there is been so much turmoil and damage the last few weeks and those approval ratings are so -- it is hard to see how much this might help. that is the intent. certainly. as i said they are still working on this. he may very well address the the navaly with incident off of singapore. joining us in the studio is michael. global head of fx strategy and cross strategists. locum to the show. bannon is gone. thatthing i read suggests this reset could be coming in a variety of ways. international statesmanship and a post bannon trump administration. that would preoccupies you? -- is that what preoccupies you?
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>> this is a time for a shift. it is going to take time to come through. there are two things we are focused on, one is the ceiling negotiation coming up over the course of september and the second is tax reform. now that trump is really underwater with his approval it means there has to be an emphasis on getting tax reform in place before the end of the year. anna: what are your expectations now around that? this is supposed to be the first business as president but his relationship is deteriorating. he is making speeches about foreign policy because that is where he thinks he will have success. the fact that these business leaders are finding it difficult to work with him, where does that leave the whole tax agenda? > it is probably going to be over the course of months.
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think there is a tax bill this year? >> this is going to be the chance to reunite the republicans. that is going to be the first steps needed before you can then have the discussion about the tax reform. the first ceiling before the end of september and tax reform over the couple of months after that. manus: we started the show with this chart, the bond market last week to it was about trump blaming both sides of charlottesville. 2.28%. of a piecethis week of global theater this week -- evening with trump. we have jackson hole to contend with and the bond markets need to contend with that. action less. jackson --nd les actionless jackson.
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>> a lot of that has been unwind. there. around draghi also certain extents around yellen. she has stated the subject of her speech is going to be on financial stability. i think this is going to be we have,ng because coming up, the expectations that the fed is going to announce the start of its balance sheet reduction program. reinforcement for the outlook stability. there is so much cash out there because balance sheets are so bloated that it is causing term premiums the amount people are going to accept for looking of their capital. that is very low. it is not until you start to get balance sheet induction that that is going to rise. it is not until that rises until you see asset prices next markets that start -- next to markets that start to the
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flight. another speech about financial stability, she gives this in -- she gives the timing of the balance sheet reduction. anna: that is where it could be interesting. yellennce that janet could mention her own concerns around valuations? that is something that even slightly away from monetary policy, something that has caught the headlines. >> central bank is always very cautious talking about stability because it is not within their mandates but it is still important. because we are having the feds balance reduction and because that feeds through the term premium and valuations, we could be a -- ch little more. manus: credit suisse had a big note friday telling their clients to take stock gains. what about gains, brees, and hedge?
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back at the start of august, we had the earnings season. the earnings were very good. short-term earnings expectations , look longer they -- longer they are stagnant. it should have led to higher prices. because we have been in risk aversion because of political risk, equities have underperformed. one of our views is that u.s. data still remains ok. the fed seems to be switched from hawkish to dovish. unlikely to switch back anytime soon. an opportunity where you have good data, that is good for assets. until't expect a hike march. anna: we will talk more about central bank policy and jackson hole shortly. global heads of fx strategy. this is what you should be
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watching this week. manus: tomorrow donald trump is scheduled to hold a rally in arizona. this is the first visit to the state since the election. anna: a shareholders meeting to vote on the proposed takeover acquisition by amazon. manus: the kansas city hosts the annual jackson hole economic symposium. janet yellen and mario draghi are you to speak at the event. -- due to speak at the event. anna: five weeks until germany goes to the polls. the election issues and what it means for the eurozone. this is bloomberg. ♪
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agreement by encore 49 $.3 billion according to people familiar with the matter. a deal could be announced as soon as today. in line to scoop up the texas utility also being viewed by warren buffett's berkshire hathaway and forcing it into elliott management. representatives from some pressure and berkshire hathaway declined to comment. and on cora presented it did not immediately respond. jumping in sydney trade after the world's forced biggest iron ore export tripled dividends. the company also said it may return further as top miners are warning -- rewarding them with my out. runner to the front become the ceo of uber. citing unidentified sources with knowledge of the situation a majority of the company's board is now coalescing. a vote of directors is likely to happen within the next two
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weeks. thank you very much. angela merkel was tested on the televisedisis in a town hall event in berlin yesterday. manus: this comes as her main to catch up with the frontrunner with five weeks to go until the election. merkel said she was angry at german carmakers when pressed on refugees. she defended her stance toward open borders. situation back if the would be identical to the one we had in 2015, i think my decision was right. ithave done a lot to ensure will not be repeated in this way. cross-ice at strategies it bnp power bar. the german election, do you think it has the potential to assets, even zone
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move the dax even the expectation is status quo? is it something you view as a market moving risk event? >> we see the german election in a different camp to the french election or the italian election next year. is if the for that status quote is deserved it is not that you are having an means theparty, that downside threat to stock prices is much much less. jackson hole, we have mentioned in regards to the united states. draghi, theo mario red note tonight's -- denotes that. all the way back to market when there is such a frenzy. did we overextend ourselves in
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bonds, and in the euro trajectory? not overextend ourselves because the data in europe has been very good, ecb will be producing the pace of its purchases later this year. the reaction does make sense. where we have been surprised is that the market has also been out a little bit. the reaction function to the same trends. since the start of qe whenever the euro-dollar got up to about 1.15. there was a aggressive reaction. is there an explicit comment in a speech or a story from ecb sources? they try to -- that did not happen this time around. anything you saw at the july press conference, draghi was comfortable. the: then we got last week account of the last meeting and that it change the market
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thinking on how the ecb is concerned. deutsche bank did interesting work when they talk about the language, this sort of morning. they can use to express concern about a constancy -- currency to the dovish side. this has significant conscript is to the economy including the anchoring inflations, where on some verbal scare do you think we are if we get anything from draghi this week what linkage what we he is -- will he use? hawkish and. we don't think he will be particularly aggressive on the currency. don't think he will be particularly aggressive on the outlook either. most likely we think he is going to be taking stock about what happens saying that qe has done a lot to stimulate growth, also at is challenges to inflation. inflation is still at a very low level and actually, at our
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forecast, as you get to the very end of this year we are expecting inflation yields to dip lower. manus: this is a problem they both have. the central bankers. they all have the same problem. whereother words, 1.30 is mario draghi went into the marketplace and talked about a strong euro. go -- to distance the go. >> exactly. 1.30 is the central anchor point that you swing around. even 1.30 itself is not overvalued. what is the concern is the pace you see in any appreciation. anna: it is the pace that matters. we hear that from a number of guests. 12% on euro-dollar. thank you. the global head of strategy
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sustaining rally. at a 10 year high and there are a lot of issues with pricesissues on the reaching unsustainable levels. >> thank you. let's talk about our cover story. this is what we have. is warren buffett and this is a lead story. it is interesting. >> this is according to people familiar with the deal.
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would be most felt by the very people who voted for brexit. this had a great number of people who probably voted for brexit. >> that is not true. a lot of people do not understand the british economy. happens is a little over 10% of the economy that brings a gain in living and itds to consumers, fall to low-income
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including farming. this will be helped by the u.k. government. the"is less common in troll policy. you put that on one side. >> does the analysis included that cost? >> the manufacture is gaining havethe devaluation and we the best survey in 20 years and this is because if the devaluation, which pushes manufacturing strongly. >> there is the crisis of manufactured goods and you think that u.k. would be left for
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and it raises competition and competitiveness. >> you are a popular man. you will have to hit no on the mobile phone. we are not done with you yet. i understand the essence of the paper. destined one are you have the consumer benefiting the manufacturer? and about protection for us for the product? >> on the country.
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>> this is the point. we get rid of that. there are the international standards and it is common across the developed world. what we won't do is use this as the excuse. basically use the standards. out the competing product. this is what we want to get rid of and we have excessive regulation. they regulate every aspect of the economy. rid of to get immigration that costs the taxpayer. you drop all of the tariffs and this will bring the eu 27 to the table.
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the don't show any sign of doing that. that requires some transition. illegally oracting we will take them to court. there are consequences from that . >> the clock ticks. thank you. thank you for joining us. we will get more on brexit here in the studio. the u.k.hts on tariffs on imports and using this as a way of driving this? the problem is getting to any
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resolution and it is on sort and -- uncertain and volatile. i look at what is happening and it seems like this level of week this toas a the pound. we are far from the worst-case scenario. >> what is your worst-case scenario? of're looking at a variety outcomes. what is the worst-case scenario? >> i want to get a gauge. you have the growth going back look to cushion
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a slow down in the economy. worst-case and they get the level of 110. there does not seem to be uncertainty priced in. some have made me think of this. he assumes that the week sterling continues with a boost in manufacturing. you talked about the worst-case. is this a worst-case question mark is it bad if the pound this week? seeing anlmost
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economy that's two speeds. some factors are doing well. forward. worse going ande is the consumer side wage growth starting to slow. monthsstrong in the six after the referendum votes. investment has started to stall. >> this is a way of looking at the economic surprises are at a low. how far away are we from the recession scenario you paint?
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>> it seems that we are not quite at the point of recession and i think that the reason for that is that you are getting a boost from imports and you have not had that crisis. like tax credit until nextare not year. >> that is the catalyst. is no credit and that happens next year. that may be what the catalyst is. scenarios certainly a we are cautious about. andhere is the reform bill
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this is all just noise. >> we are seeing the statistics and they have had a lot of capital coming in. the point gotten to with the u.k.. you are not at the crisis scenario. >> thank you. that is the global had of asset strategy. good conversation. >> we will see that later this evening. could a little known qatar sheikh break the latest crisis?
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of funding, according to people familiar with the matter. to discuss this is -- good to have you on the program. i am confused. is this something that they have done and are there warning shots about future regime changes? never come outve publicly and said they wanted a change. they wanted a change in policy. they say that this is somebody they like and they are raising the profile. this was very fruitful and he was able to say people could upe now and they would ease
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on the border. they were trying to show him as somebody who can deliver some successes and help. >> good morning. >> go ahead. excuse me. >> as far as whether this will be successful, nobody really knows. is that this has been over 1972 when they took that branch of the family. as far as whether that is achievable, even if they push into the leadership position, that is unknown. >> thank you for joining us this
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morning with the latest twist and turns. head ofthe global strategy with us. a longdle east story is turn and we don't know where it will end. when you look at the emerging-market space, where does the middle east sits with that? think ofors tend to the idiosyncratic and it tends to be pretty bantered. movements and to when that situation arose, there was a lot of concern you might see a breakdown in the region.
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these concerns started to fade because of the tensions not being so much in the headlines. >> what do you like? risk will remain buoyant. sheet andey balance the central bank expansion is still positive. assets?l support risky >> there are particular classes we like and we have seen the stock market do well and the central bank tried to prevent this currency from weakening. it is a good place. >> thank you.
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>> 10 are missing. >> welcome to bloomberg. i am manus cranny. you can see the breaking news here. obviously, we usually get some breaking news at this time. we are keeping our eyes out for that. deal tois closing out a acquire and that seems to be a headline. it is a 92% stake. there is a line there, if you go a little deeper.
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debt by a reduce the $11 billion. we have a little bit more on this. and they will get 49.13%. well. did very content has added value to the audience. start oftalk about the the trading day. it was a big week. intrigue overce the future of those who advise or work for the president. this was certainly the headline story. we now look ahead or pivot slightly towards monetary policy
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with jackson hole coming up and this could be no action at jackson. look, it has been mixed overnights and they set for the open. the u.s. and south korea will take place. what will steve handed to outside of the white house? suisse telling their client to take stock. this is the value put up in gold. there you go. you have a lot more events on the risk radar. >> there is the fixed income markets we have seen with the twist and the turns in the white house story. we have the asian equity story.
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are we doing more? equitieswn with asian and these suggest to be a little bit weaker. bethey said that this could action-less. it is mario who could steal the limelight and give back a lot of field. >> let's get the update. >> thank you. five have been injured after a collision with a tanker. collided andin they are examining the extent of the damage. the initial reports suggest that the missile destroyer had damage to the port side.
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the u.s., mexico, and canada have ended the first round of talks and say they are committed to wrapping up negotiations quickly with a deal. they will move to canada later this year. additional rounds are being reported for the rest of the year. financing instead of relying on government spending. it puts pressure on the clarity. people familiar with the matter say their whole thing meetings to figure out how this affects liquidity. it is a credit rating downgrade. beforeovocative posture to brexit talks in a look
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create a trade deal. this is after declaring that they are stepping up the pressure on the block for separation. they then will fall silent at noon. the parliamentarian is expected to undergo major work. -- the parliament tower is expected to go a -- undergo a major work. global news, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. stories.ind more >> we are closing out this session in japan and australia and we have seen a lot of movement and the nikkei closes lower with a disappointing set
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of earnings. stockss a rally in tech and we have more details on regulations coming through. in terms of what we are watching unicom andthere was strategic investors sending shares higher. this is this price here. this is the largest falling after the earnings and this is the biggest slump in years. this group has two full the dividend payments with oil prices. and you further detail near a the inventory
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record high. pressureutting further to develop payments and we will watch that with the numbers tomorrow. >> thank you very much. donald trump will make a primetime speech about afghanistan later today and he looks to get his presidency back on track. >> it has been a week of upheaval over his response to white nationalist violence. focus and whate is the strategy in delivering this pivot to afghanistan? >> this will be a key speech that the president will be making and he will a sickly be trying to look presidential and
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statesmanlike after a vacation that's ended up costing him public sentiment and business support. the incident in charlottesville and some of them remarks he made and he has now lost steve bannon and he really has had a few drama withrld stage remarks on north korea and there have been days with intense debate about what would happen with north korea. reset does want that's and he is talking about some of these issues. it has been getting immediate attention. >> he made it clear that he is going to the outside world
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without constraints. let's talk about what we can expect from trump. what will we hear with afghanistan and how important is it? this in ants often do crisis one a lot things are going on and the public seems to have failing ratings. they have moved to a statement and trying to talk to the public about the troops and broader issues on the world stage. what we think we can expect is a speech that is still being constructed. steve dan and was against escalation of troop levels in afghanistan and his other
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advisers included the secretary of state and defense secretary and they were open to this idea of increasing troop levels. this is something they have urged the plaza didn't -- the president to do. looky take their advice to like a statesman on the world stage with important global issues. he may also talk about a collision with a tanker near singapore. what kind of reset is the president looking to bring? tumultuous for him. members of thest
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business council and the community is assessing support for the president. he has not been able to get obamacare.epeal of really been heated comments about charlottesville and north korea and the continual movements from the business council. i think that he really wants to presidential and stay on script and talk about .omething like afghanistan damage hasn is if been done and the reset may prove to be difficult and fleeting.
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ofthere was the hint sticking to the script. joining us now is carolyn simmonds. welcome to the show. he is going for a reset and this vacillationwith a councils wereand disbanded. how important is the theater of the reset? >> we will see the opportunity for a focus on the policies that got him elected in the first place. it took a bit of a beating and i focus on tax get a reform that will provide upside
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to equity markets. with jackson hole, we do not expect a major announcement. pullback and he is probably one to watch. >> we are talking about europe a little more. in terms of taxes and what the president delivers, we spoke to a man who says that the president sees the possibility of doing something with taxation. get and will it be this year? it has been watered down from the initial proposal and we have
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and there is a lot of positioning going on. the reason why we overweighted taperro is because of a coming. we have seen a rebalancing and we think that we are going to be and we don't want a strong view of one against the other in the near-term. >> thank you. >> theresa may publishes five new position papers. stepping up the pressure on the eu. this is bloomberg.
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>> welcome back in berlin. it is the start of the trading day here in europe. limited volumes. let's get a look at the futures unchanged on the chairman bonds and the futures are facing weakness on an seeing focus in what we with a terror threat and a risk on sentiment. we are waiting for the briefings later this week. >> let's go to julia. agreement to buy encore. a deal could be announced as soon as today to scoop up the
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texas utility. it is being pursued by berkshire hathaway. declined tonit comment and representatives did not immediately respond. biggest dividend. will reward with higher payouts. is the frontrunner to become the next ceo of uber. unidentified sources with familiar -- information on the situation said that the border director is likely to meet in the next two weeks. shell is supposed to have oil from libya for the first time in two years.
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600,000 barrels of crude oil were loaded. a spokesperson failed to comment on the shipment. cheapis interest in the division. to buy cheap and want to see negotiations. representatives could not immediately comment. that is your bloomberg business flash. >> breaking news coming through on the energy deal in the united states. they have an ownership interest. lien dollars.18.8 are looking, they and you the utility have representatives declining
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to comment. around theke this is energy complex here in the united states and globally. let's talk about the agenda for are at odds over how soon the talks could pivot. >> five new position papers have been declared. theresa may wants to shift discussions away as soon as october. >> carolyn simmonds is still with us. there are a flurry of papers and alaska said a lot of the iterwork is just that and will not shift. the worry is that sterling is
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not priced for the worst-case scenario. sterling, dot the you look at that or the equity markets? risk?is your prism of equities and i think that your former just is right that the premium manifests in the currency and it is to deteriorate and create a weaker pound. proxy forst more of a global growth. >> are we finished with that story? it is as long as the year on year comparisons allow.
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>> you have the single digit benefit and that will die. >> one thing you believe in is the dividend in the night kingdom. where and why? isthe yield is at 4% and favorable in the bond market. volatility in the bond sectors that in and whileielding promising that yield. eurozone, youthe say value stocks are attractive. out, these areat
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about something else. and it is alsol the energy sector that we really like. thelso continued cost-cutting and this needs to come true for the values to work. active.tt seems to be leave that aside. does more come through in the u.k.? >> i am not sure that the pickup. causes a sign ofthat this is a companies struggling to generate growth. us,hank you for joining caroline simmonds.
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♪ manus: welcome to bloomberg markets, it's the european open. we bring you the first traits of the day and await you i'm manus cranny ellen sign matt miller in berlin. here is what we are watching today. mountains, yellen and draghi are off to jackson hole for a summit in what will we learn from the heads of central banks as they cope with low inflation? trump'st
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