after a usa today report which said the sheer size of the trump family and the need to secure multiple residences has taken a toll. the agency says more than 1000 agents have already hit salary and overtime cap cement the last hole year. on not lifted, a third of the agents will be working overtime without pay. catalonia police say all members of the terror cell kind last week's deadly van attack in barcelona are either dead or under arrest. the regional police confirmed officers shot and killed the man behind the wheel of the van. four of the men suspected in the attacks are under arrest or dead. two were killed in a home explosion after the last attack. search and rescue efforts continued for 10 missing sailors in the pacific after the uss john mccain collided with an oil tanker near singapore. ,efense secretary james mattis

who is in jordan, says the navy is investigating. secretary mattis: my thoughts and prayers are with the sailors and the families of the uss john mccain. we obviously have an investigation underway, and that will determine what happened. the uss mccain has docked in singapore with significant damage. it is the second fatal collision involving a u.s. warship in the pacific region in two months. army surgeon bowe bergdahl is choosing to be tried by a judge, chargeslitary jury, on he endangered his comrades by walking off a post in afghanistan. he faces charges at a trial scheduled for late october. bergdahl walked off his post in afghanistan in 2009, and was subsequently held by the taliban and its allies for five years. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: i am lisa aronowitz. julie: i am julie hyman. joe: we are happen hour from the close of trading. lisa: the dollar slightly lower ahead of jackson hole speeches. joe: what did you miss? julie: preventing a government shutdown. mnuchin and mcconnell expect quick action on the debt ceiling. chance we there is no will not raise the debt ceiling. no chance. america is not going to default. we will get the job done. we are working with the secretary of the treasury. lisa: gary cohn emerging as the

front runner to run the federal reserve. former direction would a wall street banker take on monetary policy? julie: and the race to dominate outer space. there are a lot of billionaires sponsoring investments into the final frontier. president trump seeks to turn over a new page in his turbulent administration. but will the chaos die down now that steve bannon has left the white house? trump faces a new test tonight as he addresses the country about a potential escalation of the war in afghanistan. here with what is headed for the rest of trump's agenda is our national political reporter in washington. tonight, president trump will be speaking at 9:00 p.m.. what are we expecting to hear from him? unclear,e details are but he is going to announce a strategy about the war in afghanistan, one that has encompassed the last two

presidents, his predecessors. it is obviously a region that has been extremely difficult for anybody to win. we will hear from the president on his strategy. he ran a campaign as someone who was anti-intervention, who was not in favor of spending money and resources and blood and treasure abroad. he wanted to rebuild the nation. that we have seen some of his -- some of his closest advisers do want to escalate their, at least on the military front. we will see what he says. it will be important to hear from him directly on his strategy. so far, he has not had one. julie: why is the president choosing to focus on afghanistan and spend this political capital at this point in time? there are so many other things on the agenda. you have the koreas, obviously. you have tax reform. there are a lot of other priorities. why focus on afghanistan? question.is a great this speech upstaged another speech that house speaker paul

ryan was scheduled to make at exactly the same time to a live cnn town hall, promoting a legislative agenda including tax reform, which the treasury secretary said was the president's highest priority. he has not behaved like it is. as for timing, this has been pending a long time. the president has yet to make clear what his vision for afghanistan is. he had to at some point. he picked now. it is not clear why. you toam going to ask put on your strategist hat for a second. what is it about afghanistan, so many years on, that makes it difficult for trump to do action that matches up to his noninterventionist rhetoric? he does notr one, want to admit defeat. if he pulls out, he is going to be the president on whose watch the united states effectively conceded that it could not win this war. that is a region that does not consider itself a nation. the borders were drawn -- the borders were drawn in a certain way.

but people there are mostly loyal to their tribes, to their villages. from the best of reading the literature, people do not under's dan -- do not want a central government. that by itself makes it extremely difficult to establish order in the place. they do not look kindly on foreigners who try to intervene and impose their vision of order. it is just a conundrum in many different ways. lisa: thank you. sahil -- sahil kapoor is politicals national reporter. a speech alongside mitch mcconnell about u.s. economic policy. over the weekend, mnuchin emerged as one of the staunchest defendants of the president as he rejected pleas from classmates at yale to resign from the administration. what kind of stability does mnuchin lend to the policy agenda?

we ask our treasury reporter, with us from louisville, kentucky, where mnuchin spoke earlier today. he gave a number of different comments on the economy. let us start with that letter over the weekend. the fact that he is staying with the administration -- he argued that he still has confidence in president trump, that he thinks his presence is important in the administration -- does that sort of lend some gravitas to the economic policy question? saleha: you know what? it does. from developing -- dissolving business councils to departures of the likes of gary cohn and steve bannon, that is riling financial markets. investors are trying to your out how much this administration can actually accomplished. in that light, the treasury secretary having to reaffirm that he is staying -- that is something no treasury secretary in recent history has had to do.

he is proving to be one of the staunchest defenders of this president. that gives credibility to this economic agenda. they have a very busy september ahead. the debt ceiling needs to be raised before the end of september. this is the month they really need to start putting out details on that tax reform plan. otherwise, they will suffer their chances of getting it done this year. the debts talk about ceiling. before they can get to tax reform or any other aspect of the economic agenda, that has to be taken care of. senate leader mitch mcconnell saying there was zero chance they would not hike the debt ceiling, but what does that mean? he is the head of the senate. the senate has problems. they would have said the same thing about health care reform at one point. how is it actually looking in terms of getting the republicans together to vote for a clean debt ceiling increase? saleha: this is something senate democrats are on the same side

with senator mitch mcconnell on. someone wants to make sure that markets are not spooked by a delay, that congress handles the debt ceiling increase. it needs to reach a resolution. the u.s. has already spent the money. it needs to pay those debts and make sure it abides by the high credit standard that the u.s. has, as the world reserve currency. the money has been spent. it needs to be paid. mcconnell saying that, it does not go a long way that mnuchin and mcconnell are together in the senate majority leader's home state, showing ties between the administration and senate she'll. her's. that is interesting after trump came on twitter several days in a row, a sailing senator mitch mcconnell. -- assailing senator mitch mcconnell. lisa: mnuchin has donated party in thee

past. how much traction does he have in passing a debt ceiling plan? does this edify the feeling them that democrats have taken over his administration? saleha: it is hard to say. mnuchin did sign on as a supporter of trump in the early days, before he had rnc backing and was the official republican candidate. at the same time, he has the institutional support. he has the head of the treasury department. with that comes a lot of responsibility, a lot of power. it has been touch and go for mnuchin. earlier this summer, in may and june, we saw that mick mulvaney and gary cohn were contradicting mnuchin. it was a little unclear who was in charge. right now, we are seeing mnuchin firmly in charge. you so much. bloomberg's treasury reporter joining us on the phone from louisville, kentucky, where the

treasury tech -- treasury secretary spoke earlier today. coming up tonight, live coverage of president trump's presidential address. look for that at 9:00 p.m. in new york, 2:00 a.m. in london. ♪

joe: you are looking at a tweet from goldman sachs ceo lloyd blankfein. he says, which the moon was not the only thing casting a shadow across the country. we got through one. we will get to the other. what is he talking about? he does not say. maybe he is talking about the fed rate hike. we don't know. you basically stunned us

into speechlessness. it is pretty clear. it is time to get you caught up on the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest is the stories in the news. activist investor bill ackman is calling adp "insular" after the his threejected nominees, including himself, for the board of directors. ackman said he could double the stock price by 2021. adp said the move would not improve the board, and will nominate its 10 existing directors for reelection later this year. u.s. homes are using more russian lumber, following tariffs from canada. the u.s. set duties on canadian imports of up to 24% in april, and an additional 7.7% in june. this has increased materials costs for home builders. russian imports are 42% higher so for this year. spotify's plans to list on the u.s. stock exchange are under scrutiny. met with company

executives last month and asked for further details. spotify aims at bypassing the traditional share sale, which will eliminate underwriting these and prevent dilution of investor holdings. that is your bloomberg business flash. julie: it is time for our stock of the hour. i think i have recovered from joe's facetiousness. lisa: was that the seizures? julie: lululemon -- was that facetious? lululemon has been tumbling with other athleisure brands. chandra, what is the analyst case? emma: bank of america analyst upping his rate hiking's from underperform to buy. he set a new price target. he says lululemon has proved to be innovative. they have introduced a bunch of new products recently -- a new sports bra, new technical fabrics. these are going to prove to be extremely good for their top

line. 5% in a way many competitors are not. we have a good chart comparing lululemon with nike and under armour. middle at the moment. bank of america says it is set to take sales away from both of those companies. joe: when you look at that chart, lululemon has obvious competitors, nike and under armour. those are one set of competitors. what about smaller brands that are cool the way lululemon used to be, and now everyone likes lululemon? julie: like what? you are not familiar with those? joe: i know they exist. julie: what happens to sweaty b etty? the competitors -- they are considered to be quite small. last week, we heard from quo vadis. and analysts said the athleisure

trend is over. we are going to see years of pain for all kinds of athletic rands. they included lululemon in that. you are seeing a disparity between analysts and what they are predicting. if you take a look at my terminal, it is a function we have called trend go. lululemon is up top. this is a function that looks at how stocks are being perceived each day on a number of different measures. section looks at companies and stories being written about them. lululemon is the most positive of all assessed by bloomberg analytics. julie: this is highly anecdotal. a few years back, and covering the company, this was not a company that discounted nearly ever. lisa: so frustrating. an outliereally was in retail generally. over the past few years, if you go into lulu lemon -- lululemon, there is much more merchandise that is now on sale at any given

time, not just at particular times. lululemon was once seen as a little bit apart, and it is no longer seen that way. emma: bank of america is saying the fact that nike and under armour still put lululemon at an advantage. lisa: emma chandra, appreciate it. while the peak of the solar eclipse has passed, we will look at one measurable economic effect of today's astronomical phenomenon. i am happy to talk about anything eclipse-related. this is bloomberg. ♪

julie: what did you miss? a first total eclipse to sweep the u.s. from coast-to-coast in 99 years has drawn the attention of millions. but that this event have an impact on markets? our next guest has an interesting theory. steve is an independent research

analyst joining us from waikiki, hawaii. everybody is looking for all kinds of various ways to interpret these, and also looking for ways to interpret the market. talk to us about what you found in your research about the correlations. steve: i found that a lot of times, most of the great bubbles began crashing -- they burst at the time of an eclipse, specifically a lunar eclipse, which was two weeks ago. in thedy is interested solar eclipse today. if you look back at the dow, it peaked at the time of lunar eclipse. most lunar eclipses do not affect the market or have very limited downside impact. but when bubbles burst, for some reason, they tend to burst at the time of a lunar eclipse. by the time the solar eclipse comes, which is two weeks later, the downturn usually has

momentum, and usually crashes around that time, but not all the time. the first thing people are going to think when they hear this, or many people -- maybe there are a few times this lined up, but there probably are not many instances of this. explanation, so it is data mining and random. is it a reason to think there is a connection other than market moves have to line up? if it was just one, i would say you are probably right. but when it keeps happening over and over again, you start to think there might be a reason why, even though we don't know it. we do not know -- a lot of people don't know why a motor works, but they do know when they turn it on, it does work. you don't always have to know why to find correlations and to find causes. lisa: do you have clients who are betting money on this theory? steve: i have no idea.

i do research and point out information.acts, and that seems to be a factor. let's put it that way. it is definitely not the only factor. it would be silly to base it on the eclipse. joe: what about the people talking more and more about days in the sevens -- crashes in years ending in seven, i am just curious in your looking back through history whether this is something you pay attention to as well. steve: actually, i do believe there are cycles, but i do not know about year seven being the factor. there is a cycle of being approximately 19 years, and half of that, there is a minor cycle which is nine and a half years, which would be approximately every 10 years. that might be what the people are seeing when they talk about

ending in the year seven. joe: i love it. great stuff. steve is an independent research analyst and statistician. thank you very much. speaking of the eclipse, here is a chart i think we can definitively say is connected to the eclipse. i am looking at a chart of intraday california solar production. this is the last three days. try to spot the moment where the sun was blotted out by the moon. i highlighted this. you can see in the middle of the day california time, solar production did drop for several minutes when the sun was blocked. that is how solar works. obviously, there are some things that we do not understand why they work, like how markets might react, that we can understand why solar panel -- solar power is diminished when the sun is blocked out. that is the kind of day we have on the bloomberg. lisa: it is amazingly even track

this kind of data. i want to look: at the changes in volatility. we are looking at the volatility etf and etn. this is a long fix etn, and the other are short volatility and long volatility. what we see here is that the reaction to the recent surge in volatility was short-lived. we are seeing short interest climb once again through these long volatility fall off. i was just talking to jim stringer for our options insight segment, and he pointed out you have got a lot of daytraders in here. .t is not like the vix it self you are more reacting to the results of the day at hand. a pop intime you see volatility, you could see all of this reverse. it is an interesting phenomenon to watch. look at emerging

markets, and the rush of money into emerging markets with credit, local currency credit. i want to look at an exchange traded fund, the local currency bond. its assetsly doubled under management so far this year, going from $2.3 billion up to $4 billion. it increased its market cap to 70%, year to date. that is a shocking increase that shows how people are looking for value anywhere in the world that they can find it. it is pretty amazing, thinking about at the beginning of the year, rates are going to shoot up, and now they are closest to their low levels of the year. into e.m., where the opportunity for return is much higher. julie: i was speaking with mike buchanan, who said local currency e.m. debt, highest conviction but so far this year.

lisa: and he is not the only one, i am sure. the market closes next. we have less than four minutes until the close of trading. a mixed picture heading into the close. ♪

♪ >> what did you miss?

there is little bit of it as an end. trading volume is really light at two is of losses in equity. i am joe weisenthal. scarlet fu and juliet are off today. if you are tuning in live on twitter, we want to welcome you for our closing bell coverage of everything. >> we begin with our market minutes. this is a listless day of trading. we are seeing stocks bounce around from gains and losses. we see this throughout the day. we have gained at some point throughout the day and losses at some point during the day. it was like a nasdaq is the loan of the major opportunities to finish in the red. each managerhe dow about a 10th of a percent gain.

trading volume has been quite like today. -- light today. look at the s&p 500. insaw about a 21% drop volume today versus the 20 day average. i want to zoom in on a particular window of time this afternoon when the clips was going on. here in particular you see these .hite lines the white lines are today. during much of this. , the jiggly during the larly duringarticu the eclipse. >> there were tons of people out on the street in new york. >> the person that we are going may have seent

the eclipse as well. taking a look at some of the big movers today, herbalife was a big story today as we got several different pieces of news, including the fact that the company was planning to buy back $600 million in shares. it now has a pact with its biggest investor -- carl icahn. he won't take more than 50% stake in the company. concluded talks to go private unsuccessfully. of course, that herbalife surge is a blow to bill ackman. so has been the data processing adp. in detailn talking about his case on the company. he is now accused of being insular and lacking perspective. of the boardominee of directors is not a push back.

energy has beaten out warren buffett. they still have to get state approval from texas, maybe california but those shares are up 1%. total. looking at yo joe: looking at the government bond market. it was a very quiet day. very than a market moving news today. a 10 year yield down to 2.81%. >> currencies, let's catch you up. >the euro is gaining against the dollar. the british pound getting against the dollar. this is a story about the dollar weakening. in can see that back

september and december, these are leveraged funds. that it has completely reversed and the consensus is go short the dollar. a question of whether this is a contrarian indicator or not. joe: in the world of commodities, let's look at oil down 2% after some production concerns. gold is a little higher but not much. there is also this rally in the industrial metals. nickel getting another 3%. copper is up. a combination of perceived from china and supply issues around the world are putting in some nice gains for the industrial metal. those are today's market minutes. >> we are joined by dan mcmahon. did you end up watching? >> i did indeed.

>> people were out washing the eclipse today. let's start with the s&p 500. bank of america is looking at the 200 day average for the s&p and saying the facts we held above it is a good sign. you are looking at the 100-day moving average. dan: i'll think this pullback on anybody by surprise. anybody by surprise. we think we have pulled back to support levels. we are looking at the 200 day, the 50 day, there is support above and it really matters on where we go from here. unfortunately, it is really quiet. we had the one day if clips holiday but it was not only that, it's earnings season is behind us. it is august, it is holiday season. you have nothing on the docket

until they come in later in the week. it is just a really quiet time. period. never a dull market, just the shortest mantra in history. we believe we are pulling back to support level. we wouldn't be surprised by continued weakness in the short term. calls, make those raymond james doesn't make those calls. we do believe that the longer term trend is up. joe: you say we are still in a secular bull market. what are the things that you would watch for? sector, crudeergy was down another couple basis points. there started to form bottoms. the market will have more breadth.

you are seeing a great earning season behind us. we had retailers having reform. you see a pullback in the russell 2000. short-term de-risking of the market. there is lots of cash on the sidelines still. is the move to passive from active? -- too passive from a ctive? we hope so. your takendering what on a popular theme that i heard was, people are bearish on government bonds but bullish on equities. do you think the u.s. stock market can continue its momentum at the u.s. government bond market does materially selloff? dan: that is a question for macroeconomists. there is a general consensus, this is a liquidity bed bull

market -- fed bull market. costs forcrease corporate bond issues. it will reduce cash available for stock buybacks. it will make equities look at little more risky, relatively speaking. you are talking about 150 basis points. i do think that is market moving. you have seen growth in the economy. the concern is a growth of blac inflation.f >> you mentioned a detail that has been a negative. why is that not sparking more concerns? is this something that clients are concerned about? how much these guys are getting beaten up? just get beat up last week, it keeps going downward. dan: is it a matter of the consumer?

is it a matter of the market dynamic change? amazon is still continuing to rage forward. -- the it comes back to bigger question is probably the greatest trade in history would be by amazon and other retailers. go,much further does not you talk about foot locker that was down 29% last week. the general consensus is -- what impact does it have? the success of amazon -- on the mom and pop shops? who says i need a scented candle, let's go to the mall. product that you amazonecessarily sell --

started selling books, our sneakers that different? why go to the mall? i'm not an analyst. i think it has more to do with the market dynamic and evolution than whether it is about the consumer spending. >> there was an article in the journal about this. volatility are on the short side and the long side and are getting incredibly popular. -- xie.me of x by the all of the affect of these people betting one way or another on volatility? dan: from our perspective, it is the equivalent of going to the casino and putting a chip on red, black or green. it is not investing, it is gambling. i think, generally speaking, the house wins. from 110 to 6.

from 15 toty pops 25. that is not an investment. you.n, great to see we haven't eclipse -- have an eclipse for you. >coming up, will gary cohn take the reins from janet yellen? we will have the latest analysis. from new york. , this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> president trump makes a

primetime speech tonight. he will order about 4000 army troops to afghanistan. he is working on a revised u.s. positive -- policy in afghanistan. you can watch president trump's speech on bloomberg television. that is at 9:00 p.m. new york time tonight. the man who was accused of driving his car into a crowd in charlottesville appeared in court today. appeared. field heyer died heather in the crash. when he does report back to work, it will be on his recommendation. the house majority says he participated in a conference call with republican lawmakers. a lone gunman opened fire during

in june. he has several surgeries. just like millions of americans, president trump watched the solar eclipse today. he took in the eclipse at the white house, the president was soned by wife, melania and barron. i am am a, this is bloomberg -- am emma, this is bloomberg. >> what has economic advisor gary cohn is emerging as front runner to succeed janet yellen. here is michael. i am sure you put a lot of credence into the survey. you are looking at another gauge

of gary cohn becoming the next fed chair. tell us about that. mike: nobody knows. there is only one man who is going to know and he probably has no idea what he will do, that is donald trump. discernible has no political, economic or monetary policy philosophies. who knows where he will go? we have a graphic that shows that it is predicted that online betting sites -- you can put money down and forecast who you think will be chosen. 36-36 gary cohn. you said we don't know, or that does not has no discernible monetary policies, do we know anything about gary cohn's? >> we know a little bit.

he has talked about the benefits of lower interest rates in the past. he has talked about stable monetary policy. we don't know a lot. one of the factors is that donald trump be fine with janet yellen. congressional republicans, many have made it clear that they would like to see a republican. gary cohn is a democrat and he came from wall street. that should make both sides unhappy because of the financial crisis. how much support is he really going to have on capitol hill? >> the optics of the goldman goldman sachsr -- man becoming fed chair may not make them happy. forommended janet yellen her stance and he seems to want stimulus efforts that would be better off with a lower interest rate policy. he said he likes lower

interest rates. who doesn't? that is an easy comment to make. how they carry that policy out, whether or not growth is more important and jobs are more inflation, we don't know how he feels about those things at this point. >> let's talk about the jackson hole monetary conference that is coming up this week. the title of the conference is kind of vague. are the bigy, what things you will be looking to hear? >> ensuring a dynamic economy. janet yellen's speech on friday morning will be widely watched, it is always. policy andooks for a we rarely get that. she will talk about financial stability, another broad topic, she could talk about macro

prudential regulation and put everyone -- macro credential regulation and put everyone to sleep. or she could talk about pushing asset prices up to par and cause tank. markets to mario drago gets the most attention. conference, hess said we agreed to discuss it in autumn. will he try to make some news? that might upset people. >> let's say that janet yellen says that prices are too high, that could send equity down. it has done nothing. >> anything i say should come with one of those save harbor stickers. that is what i know about the market. you will lose money. at least, we have seen a brief reactions with beneficial's that say markets

are overpriced because they are worried that they may raise rates too high. until they made the case that the financial conditions index show that conditions are getting looser and a time when the stock market keep setting records. that makes the case for these one more rate increase this year. that will be on everybody's minds. >> there will be a lot of schmoozing. expect to be the big offside topic of conversation aside from the big headlines? >> we have to guess what happened with fiscal policy. this is not a conference about fiscal policy but this has dominated the conversation for the entire year. especially in the united states when donald trump -- where donald trump has big plans for this. they are talking about infrastructure. how does that play into what central banks are going to do?

helpcb would like a little on the fiscal side. they get a little bit out of a couple of countries but they are not getting much at this point. what would he like to see going forward on the fiscal side? to the europeans say anything about france making some labor market reforms? the undercurrent will be who is the next fed chair? >> looking for to your coverage of that event, michael mckee is bloomberg's international economic and cc correspondent. businessweek's josh green is up next with more on steve bannon. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> what is next for president trump's policy agenda after the oust of steve bannon? now back in charge of breitbart news. if the republican party gets behind the president on his plan and not theirs, it will all be sweetness and light, one big happy family. josh green and author of the ,ewest book " devil's bargain steve bannon and discussion of the presidency" discusses bannon's next move after the white house. >> he is outside, he is back to his old tricks at breitbart news which is trying to influence public policy from this internet platform that has an enormous influence. not just among voters but a core contingent of republicans in

congress. >> what damage to the party could an untethered than in be outside of the white house -- bannon be outside of the white house? >> he could cause all sorts of headaches tonight. benin believes -- steve bannon believe that trump was elected because of a couple of policies. throughout the campaign, trump said he would draw u.s. troops from afghanistan. he is going to increase troop levels, bannon sees himself as fighting for the trump that got elected. that is a different animal than theone now governing in white house. what we have in washington is a series of very important votes. boats to keep the government open, votes to raise the debt ceiling. we had unified control of washington. that ought to be easy. because bannon and others are

stoking this fire about what trump will stand for, it could cause all sorts of problems in getting the government to function and doing those basic things that are critical, not only to trump's presidency but the government economy. >> does he have to care about the president's mid-30's apple ratings -- approval ratings? >> he believes they are as low as they are because trump has not been able to put the policies that he campaigned on into effect. he is going to push the president to stick to the promise he made. >> one of the key is to trump getting elected is he endorse a lot of policies that were

actually very popular with voters. strike lesso interventionist foreign policies. i think trump intuitively understood that and has been wrestling with what to do in afghanistan ever since. carrying on that war and sending more u.s. troops will be popular. it will be up to the president to sell people on an idea that he was against when he was a candidate. forhat was josh green bloomberg businessweek. up next, the labor market -- why have we not just risen? we will speak to a recovery skeptic. this is bloomberg. ♪

emma: i am emma chandra. let's get to first word news. the police chief in spain's region says the 12 members authorities have identified have all been accounted for. two officers shot and killed one suspects still thought to be at large today. u.s. treasury secretary steve mnuchin addressed tax reform alongside senate majority leader mitch mcconnell at a chamber of commerce in louisville today. mr. mnuchin: we have one of the highest stated rates, yet it

encourages companies to leave their money offshore and pay less taxes. we have to fix this. fixing it is going from a worldwide system to a where we taxystem companies on u.s. income but not worldwide income. make raisings will the debt ceiling a top priority when it returns. trump administration is working with sheriffs from around the country on a plan to move undocumented immigrants from a local jails into federal detention. the plan is intended to circumvent court to sessions -- court decisions that credit limit the role of federal government in immigration.

the role ofd limit the federal government in immigration. --sley ask final months trumps first national security adviser, michael flynn, lied about contact with the russian ambassador. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. julie: thank you. let's take a look at what happened and recap what happened in today's market's action. we did not see much action in terms of trading range, pretty tight for all three major averages, the nasdaq of the on the one of three that finished in the red and only slightly at that. we did see some large-cap technology trading volume down. it clips effect or just a summer august effect? falla must down 17% versus the

20 day average. down 17% versus the 20 day average. real estate, telecom, health care, the three best-performing sectors in the s&p. joe: what'd you miss? at full.s. economy u capacity? our next guest says no. he wrote a report called "what recovery?" now.ins us a lot of people are saying we are at full employment and the only question is why isn't inflation shooting up? what is everyone getting wrong? at fullu believe we are employment, you have to believe in an incredible coincidence. the economies suffered a huge shock with the financial crisis. we have never recovered. if you look at the trends

pre-2007 and the forecast, we have not closed the gap at all. you can say employment is down because of demographic factors and productivity is down because of a technological slowdown, but you would have to believe both of those things happened and men bigependently of the demand. joe: when people talk about the pre-crisis, the responses, sure, that was when there was a credit fueled boom and the economy will not be on that unpredictable path. how do you respond? >> we have had booms and busts in the economy before. we have always returned to the earlier trend. this is the first bust from which there has not been a return to the earlier trend. in theyou still believe

phillips curve, that if unemployment gets low enough we wages increase and greater participation? >> i think we are seeing the beginning of that now. we have finally seen an uptick of wages after sustained unemployment. ,: what should the unemployment rate be for us to see that sustained inflation? think you can say in advance. i think the policy should be to wait in till you have a problem, and not to get out ahead of it. of wage growth we still need just to get back to where we were. is thate big concern the longer we allow low rates to persist, the more debt accumulates and the slower growth will be long-term. it becomes a vicious circle. >> if you look at changes in debt ratios, both public and private historically, high interest rates contributes more to rising debt than low interest

rates. low interest rates encourage borrowing, that high interest rates increase debt costs for people who have debt. julie: it sounds like you do think that at some point we will come to that level and employment. you don't think there has been a long term structural change in the u.s. economy where we are not going to get back to the same level of employment? >> i think we have to look at the balance of risks. have people shut out of the labor market that could be doing productive work. that's trillions of dollars of lost output. joe: the headline unemployment rate is pretty low by historical standards. a few times it has been lower, but that's pretty rare. other measures, population ratio, labor force participation rate, that is still pretty low. optimists would say yes, but

that's because of demographics, people retiring, short-term changes due to education. why do you think that doesn't work? age, butn adjust for you can't explain the full fall during the decade of the 2000. thefall since 2000s, only a small portion of that can be explained by the aging of the population. the decline in labor force participation is really concentrated in younger demographic groups. much lessople are likely to be in employment today. that cannot be explained by aging population, obviously. there is a falling birthrate. people don't talk about this much. and education. education levels continue to rise. statistically, that should be

raising employment rates. you put those factors together, and it's very hard to tell a story where the decline in unemployment can be explained demographically. julie: what about fiscal policy? do you think there are concrete improvements that could be made, if we get an infrastructure spending bill, for example, that would be more permanent? tothe first discussion is decide what direction we want to be heading. there are a lot of arguments that monetary policy has not been very effective and that we should be looking at other tools in the toolkit. there are reasons why at the moment monetary policy is more open to us politically. emma: in your perfect world, what should the fed do in the next 12 months? >> to start with, they should not be raising rates. they should bring the rate back to zero and leave it there. i don't know how effective that would be, but i'm sure it would be a better response to what they are actually doing.

joe: finally, we have jackson hole coming up. do you think there is any sign after all these years that people are starting to question some of the assumptions they had an come around to your way of thinking? >> absolutely. there was a nice piece by the outgoing chair of economic advisers talking about the new fiscal policy which, coming from someone in that position, was a radical document that rejected a lot of views we had about the fed being an all-powerful master planner that can steer the economy. we need a different set of tools and we need to learn more about the dangers of deflation and stagnation, and less about the lessons of the 19th 70's, which were a while ago now. -- 1970's, which were a while ago now. julie: what about the effect on the markets and then, if there is an eventual crash, wouldn't

it he that much more start? >> financial regulation is an appropriate tool. if you are concerned about asset bubbles and want to address those problems, you don't want to be taking a hammer to the real economy because you are worried about asset prices getting out of control. julie: we have to leave it there. we want to ask so much more, but we have to leave it there. thank you. appreciate it. coming up, norway is holding an election next month. we will look at how wealth tax is this year's main issue and the state of the race there. this is bloomberg. ♪

joe: what'd you miss? norwegians head to the polls next month to vote for members of parliament. the opposition labor party is slipping to the more left-wing party. with our reporter in oslo about the race and what issues are driving the campaign. >> the current makeup of the government is conservatives. the conservatives and progress party. since the end of last year, the opposition, led by the socialist labor party, has been the most likely outcome. but labor has been falling in the polls lately. the outcome could very well be decided by peripheral parties such as the greens on the far left. this could yield an interesting result, potentially giving negotiation power to parties that shut down production of oil and gas altogether. -- want to shut down production

of oil and gas altogether. >> what is driving the polls? >> they have been advocating to ofe more toward the center norwegian politics. there is a lot of talk about voters more to the left in norwegian politics shying away strategy. the parties more to the left are gaining traction. >> it sounds very familiar with what's going on in a lot of western democracies where centrist parties are seeing their support erode. what are some key similarities and differences in norwegian politics? obviously, big themes, rison right, also the far the rise in the far left. thedoes that play out in norwegian specific context? >> during this year's campaign,

what has been very much issue, more the tax specifically wealth tax issues. norway is one of the few countries left in europe with a tax on wealth. the current conservative government wants to abolish this tax altogether. they claim it hurts job creation and puts norwegian business owners at a disadvantage to international competitors. the opposition on the socialist side wants to tighten the fiscal levies on the richest. they say there is no proof that tax cuts create more jobs. joe: from the perspective of voters, you hear people point to scandinavian welfare states as models of wealthy countries that have robust policies in place to

ameliorate inequality and provide general welfare. how do voters view those policies today? is still aeel it strong aspect of society? >> norway is a very egalitarian country. income distribution is very equal. the only distant -- difference would be on the big fortunes. that is why the wealth tax has topic.such a hot it's a way to make in a gala terry a gala terrien -- egalitarian society even more egalitarian. joe: you mention the left is critical of the oil industry which has significantly played a role in norwegian economy. we have also seen oil crash a lot in the last few years.

how oil ise about playing into politics right now. >> oil is always a hot topic. as we see in recent polls, the greens had a lot of traction. it's their only campaign now, that they want to shut down all production of oil and gas in norway. that was -- that would make -- that would be a massive change to the economy from the last 40 or 50 years. we are at a pivotal point now are trying toans find a strategy on how to transition the economy from oil and gas to new industries. i am curious how issues like the refugee situation across europe plays out in norway. a massive influx

of immigrants in 2016 with record numbers coming in, especially across the norwegian russian border. droppedber has dramatically. right now, it is the lowest it has been in many years. still, norway has very tough , and thenn borders number of immigrants has dropped significantly. still, the question is heavily debated. joe: my conversation with the bloomberg news economy reporter in moscow -- in oslo. coming up, what do otherd branson and billionaires have in common? interest in astronomy. this is bloomberg. ♪

julie: what'd you miss? more billionaires than you would think are investing in outer space. elon musk, jeff bezos, richard world's and 15 of the 500 richest people have made space investments. talking about here? who surprised you the most? >> along with the technology tycoons, there are a couple of people. one of mexico's richest people who owns a big conglomerate and is a retailer. joe: do any of them aspire to go into space themselves? >> for sure jeff bezos. emma: is this going to be

profitable, or is this a vanity project? --10 years ago it was may be not a vanity project but a passion project. jeff bezos was not going to that ineturn on his lifetime. a wealthy are investor, you can look at startups and go, i can see a global this nas model here, and that's what's developing. -- business model here, and that's what's developing. julie: what are the business models? we know about spacex. are there others? >> spacex is the most expensive. there is also stuff down stream. services developing around the ideas of people going into space. tryingl company that's to be the expedia of space.

joe: what about space mining? ago people were really talking about that. is that going to be viable at some point? >> there's a company called planetary resources. a lot of excitable analysts comment about, if you find one , that's enough to wreck the earthbound market. again, people get excited, but it seems like tangible returns are still the challenge. emma: how many people are actually going into space? , [indiscernible] did you say jeff bezos is spending a billion dollars a year? a billionpending dollars of amazon stock a year.

he describes it as a robust business model. emma: is it just for billionaires? >> at the moment. julie: tom metcalf, thank you so much for the billionaire space update. bloomberg's own david westin will talk to berkshire hathaway chairman and chief executive officer warren buffett on wednesday, august 30 at 4:00 p.m. london time. do not miss that interview. emma: i don't think he's invested in space. lots ofut he has interesting things to talk about. it's time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. a hedge fund manager says conflicts have intensified to the point where fighting to the death is probably more likely van reconciliation.

he recently recommended investors hedge 5%-10% of their assets in gold. isnity investments participating in a joint venture in hotels. trinity will oversee the joint venture and be responsible for acquisitions and asset management. dear friend capital has agreed to pay a settlement -- dear front cap -- deerfield capital has agreed to pay a settlement for using insider information. in may, prosecutors accused three partners of illegally obtaining information on policy changes before they became public. joe: we will have more after the break. this is bloomberg. ♪

julie: what'd you miss? day on wall calm street with a major averages not moving much in one direction or the other. low trading volume as well, but things could heat up. don't miss trump delivering a speech about u.s. strategy in afghanistan at 9:00 p.m. eastern. you can catch that live on bloomberg tv and radio. i am looking at salesforce.com earnings tomorrow. joe: trump will be holding a

rally in phoenix, arizona, tomorrow. we will see what that's all about. we could talk about space until then and hope a billionaire will finance us. julie: my goal is to get closer to the next eclipse. joe: mine, too. julie: #lifegoals. that's it for what'd you miss? bloomberg technology is up next. joe: have a good evening. this is bloomberg. ♪ .

emma: i am emma chandra and you're watching "bloomberg technology." the search for 10 missing johnrs lost after the uss

mccain collided with an oil tanker near singapore continues. it is the second collision involving a u.s. warship in the pacific region in two months. the navy has ordered a wide range investigation. the "washington post" reports the secret service on the has enough funds to protect the trump family until the end of september after a "usa today" capst said they hit meant to last until the end of the year. the louisiana congressman says a date has not been set yet for his return. but when he does report that, it will be on his doctor's recommendation. he participated today in a conference call with fellow lawmakers. he was shot by a gunman during a baseball practice. president trump is expected to announce a troop increase in afghanistan. he has been working with advisors on a strategy for america's longest war. as many as 4000 troops could be dispatched. trump is