welcome to "bloomberg businessweek." what happens when investors win out over workers? is mark zuckerberg running for president are not? julia: all that ahead on lyf "bloomberg businessweek." ♪ carol: i'm here with the editor in chief, megan murphy.

i feel like this is an issue everyone is trying to get their head around. that is the lack of wage growth. megan: this is a strong piece about something we are deeply fascinated about. american workers, global workers are fascinated about. why we see unemployment reaching or touching lows, a full unemployment state, why are we not seeing wages growing faster? traditionally if you have a compression, more demand for workers, we have millions of open jobs in america but we still see stagnant or slow wage growth. while we are exploring is this is not just an american phenomenon, its global. places like japan and the u.k. maybe how we can jump start the wage growth. it is difficult to pinpoint to civic reasons why it's happening, but there are measures that can be taken to correct it. carol: they talk about things you can't rollback at this point. the role of maybe unions and all of this. megan: this is talked about quite a bit.

over the past three decades as we saw membership declining, and union rights stripped away that is not given workers and appropriate outlet invoice to push for the kind of wage increases. you talked about tech disruption. many people argue workers are competing globally as globalism has thrived. they are competing with workers in lower wage economies. they are also competing against robots. when you eliminate wage earning individuals in the form of automation, that will put pressure to keep wages depressed. is we simply are not measuring the workforce the way we used to. people work in the gig-economy. perhaps we are not actually capturing the extent of this disruption to the workforce. carol: they talked about higher unionization and productivity

and workers feeling better about their jobs and maybe that might lead to better wages. i thought that connection was interesting. megan: the ultimate objective of the piece is to talk about something that is argued about and talked about at the highest levels, but not at the bottom up union level. this is incentivizing managers to line their own pockets by disturbing the money down to its employees. and making the argument the rising inequality in terms of wages, what your medium income is, is a direct result of enrichment of the top echelon of management and society. and the impact that has. that is something people have been trying to capture. we are seeing the rich get richer and the poor get poore r. one thing michael does argue for is actually forcing people to draw the connection between the top echelon and rank-and-file

workforce the mandate there is not too big of a gap between them. the u.k. has proposed it several times. it never gets much traction. that would be fascinating to see if that becomes a real trend. carol: we have seen that gap. megan: it is the biggest economic conundrum of our time. carol: i love this story. mark zuckerberg for president? maybe. megan: what is so interesting about mark zuckerberg for president is he is not the only facebook executive mentioned. sheryler is coo sandberg. we talked to him in june when he was rolling out his tour of america. when you talk to mark and people close to mark, he is not running. he just was sick a lot and understand what is going on in america and potentially worldwide. the company faces disruption like it never has before. it is at the crosshairs of the place you do not want to be in

the crosshairs, washington and fake news and meddling in the election, special prosecutor robert mueller looking at the company and how it was used. these are all things that are severe, severe image issues for facebook. mark zuckerberg's front and center of trying to deal with that with his outreach to america. carol: we got more from sarah and max. max: i say it's the biggest challenge since the ipo. to catch people up, a couple of weeks ago facebook basically disclosed that they had sold during the 2016 election the company sold $100,000 worth of ads to accounts that looked to have been connected to the kremlin. this is damaging. it has applications for the special prosecutor's investigation into russian collusion, but it has applications for facebook, the company's brand.

it has potential to bring a lot of ugliness to the floor. julia: will mark zuckerberg played this down? he said the idea was a crazy idea. how you think facebook is looking at this situation? they clearly are helping the authorities, but there is a bigger question about the scope of their influence with 2 billion facebookers out there. sarah: you are right. i think facebook underestimates its own power. comments like that from zuckerberg, facebook will come out and not take blame for something and then after public outcry will revisit -- what is our impact on society actually? then they will start to think about how it can be better. we have seen it with fake news in trending topics, violent live videos. this is another example of facebook realizing we had a huge impact here and maybe we should

think about our role. it does seem extremely naive. the company is trying to get smarter about this. certainly zuckerberg is trying to demonstrate that he understands or is trying to understand facebook's impact by going on this cross-country tour and interviewing people in various states and understand how facebook and directs with their lives. a lot of people have said it's a very political move. we explore that in the story, but it is also something about zuckerberg trying to be a relentless self improver. he is trying to grasp what facebook's impact on society has been. julia: max, does facebook need a reality check and understand better how they are interacting with individuals and the influence they have? argue thisy perhaps tour is more about self-promotion than understanding facebook and the

influence it has. max: a couple of things to keep in mind. people are buzzing about the special prosecutor and the possibility mark zuckerberg could be called to testify in congress. the thing to keep in mind is facebook is really powerful. that is what is driving a lot of the anxiety. the anxiety that maybe facebook had some role in mucking around with the election is a basically control a lot of the mobile advertising business. they reach 2 billion people. it is probably the most wide reaching -- certainly the most wide reaching media product of all time. he is more powerful i would argue that any business person on earth. carol: turning mark zuckerberg into a cover model was the job of rob vargas. rob: he did not cooperate for a shoot. we had to get creative. we made a list of everything he

is playing with right now. once i saw this list provided by the editor, i was like that is what we need to put on the cover. we needed to figure out a way to incorporate all these various phrases. the problems he is dealing with. that is where we ended up. julia: the big headline grabber is fake news. that ties into the political environment. and their responsibility, how responsible they are for that. rob: it feels like all this started after the election and all the blame is waste on them. since then it is cap snowballing to all these smaller issues. being he is not known for -- you don't have them in a hoodie. he does look kind of like a candidate. rob: he has been on this listening tour. it makes people think he might be running for office at some point. it is all speculative. we got a picture of him in a suit looking very political.

we decided to go with that one. carol: unions are trading hotel workers to face that immigration raids. julia: president obama's raking in big paychecks from wall street. carol: this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪

♪ carol: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." julia: you can find us online at week.com. labor groups are on the frontline of businesses on president trump's crackdown on undocumented immigrants. carol: they are taking training sessions and having handle visits from ice. josh: we have seen unions this year as there has been a crackdown on undocumented immigrants by the trump administration. we have seen unions at the front lines in terms of protesting,

marching, lobbying for legislation. this story is about other ways unions are doing things that only unions can do to protect union members and other workers who are immigrants. profiled the i work of unite here, the hotel, casino and food workers union that has almost half its members contracts covering always have its members coming up for negotiation in the next year. a priority in those negotiations around the country is going to be restricting company's collaboration with ice. julia: they are going as far as holding how to beat ice classes. explained to us with his classes are and what they are trying to do to prepare them? josh: unite has been holding

training where they go over right people -- regardless of the citizen status -- have one they are confronted with ice. at work, at home, on the street. the right to remain silent and not offer of documents. they train people to exercise those rights and they do it with role-play. organizers put on dark jackets and dark glasses. they act out ice agents. the good copy might try to trick you, the bad cop who could screen and be abusive. than the have workers practice staying calm, not running away, not sharing information, not giving probable cause to the agents, not breaking solidarity. even if someone is a citizen, they are being trained to not provide information to ice. carol: these workers of the background in many ways of the hotel and hospitality industry.

i'm curious about the hotel companies. where are they on this? josh: they have been quiet. a report in the story in february, the president of the union reached out to have them join with him in rebuking what trump was doing on immigration and committing voluntarily to do whatever they can within the bounds of the law to protect immigrant workers. the major hotel chains have not gone that far. hyattave, marriott and and hilton have signed a letter from hundreds of business leaders expressing support for the daca program that shields hundreds of thousands of immigrants, but they have not been on the front lines the way the union would like entity. they have not made the kind of limits the unions would like. carol: president obama is eeing his fortunes rise

on wall street. max: when he was in the white house he was the sort of enemy of wall street. bankers complained to me an answer to you both about how furious and hurt they were when he used the phrase "fat cats." carol: it is coming up the financial crisis. there was a lot of stuff going on. max: you can also look at it as a sort of uniform thing. his justice department had a chance to try to put a big bankers in jail and they certainly did not do it. the head of his justice department essentially said the banks were too big to jail. re-created rules for the financial system, rules that banks,ely irked the big he did not break them up when he could have. he was a moderate who supported some corporate interests. probably closer than hillary

clinton the bernie sanders, which is interesting that he is giving these speeches now that hillary clinton is saying in her new book she regrets doing it. carol: you mentioned carlyle group and. do we have any idea who? max: we knew about one of them. paid $400,000 and go to the health care conference. when i spoke to his friends on wall street, they told me the fact it is like a health care conference in similar cover. he can at least say i signed the law that is still the law of the land, of the congress is working hard to change that on health care. reality is it is like health care bankers. julia: hillary clinton says she regrets it. what is different about obama? she made a presidential run. obama had his turn. is that the difference? if you don't anticipate making a

political comeback, you are in the clear? max: one good thing about having a popular story, the most read at bloomberg for the month -- the nikkei very proud and proud of my editor, the downside is people talk about it on twitter. they go wild. on twitter a lot of obama fans were like, i would pay to hear him speak. no big deal. get that money. on the one hand i think it is only fair if all the other ex-president's got a make that money. remember when george w. bush said. laura and i will replenish the coffers. julia: are they still influential? obama is still pretty influential. he can back someone and people listen. carol: you can pick up the phone and get anybody. max: that is something we talked about in the story. he is not writing off into the

sunset -- riding often the sunset. he was surfing with richard branson, but he is one of the most influential voices in the democratic party. he helped push tom perez. it was going to be a more liberal candidate. than it is the redistricting effort where he plays a really big role. the democrats want to avoid gerrymandering. obama is really involved in that. he is an influential voice in the party, no doubt. julia: ginni rometty sits down with megan murphy. this is bloomberg businessweek. ♪

♪ carol: julia: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." carol: you can listen to us on 1330s xm channel 119, am

in boston, 91 fm in boston. julia: and in asia on the bloomberg radio plus app. recently sat down with bloomberg businessweek editor in chief megan murphy. carol: their conversation centered around how technology is impacting the workplace and what ibm calls cognitive computing. here is megan murphy. megan: this is such a fun interview. when i do interviews of people like ginni, what i really wanted to grapple with is two they tensions animating her career. one is questions about artificial intelligence, what they called cognitive computing and watson. there is a lot of speculation that this is the part of the business i need to drive big blue and ibm forward and it is not delivering up to the hype. the second thing i wanted to talk about is this tension

.etween questions about a.i and disruptions in general, and how ibm, america's oldest tech company, is in the constant process of reinventing that business. she has come under fire for her performance of the company as revenues have declined quarter after quarter. it is always important, and to look at how she is from a personal and corporate responsibility in these incredibly difficult times we face, economic disruption, political disruption, how she makes the choice about where to take ibm, where it stands, and where it tries to make it move forward. carol: i found the ibm-watson stuff fascinating. we don't know how the business is doing, duly? -- do we? megan: we don't. she said watson is right where we want it. a lot of shareholders would disagree. here is what is so fascinating.

ginni, when they look at someone like her, one of the most known female ceo's, they fully form. she is always message impasse and passionate. her father left the family when she was young. for mother had to really scramble. she has three siblings. they went on food stamps. to talks about the entitlement program, and how that shaped her in her career and not letting it really to find her. what is so interesting is a mother had cancer. when she talks about watson and a.i. -- one of the biggest areas that have gone into his health care. this is very personal. it is very personal to her that she believes watson is helping doctors, nurses, health care providers make better decisions. carol: it is three years since pil gross code -- left

mco. julia: the performance at his new company has not been so headline worthy. john: this is the three-year mark coming up when he started managing the jannis henderson fund. that is like a traditional time to look and see how somebody's performance is. we look at bill gross. he has gone from being bonnie , the guy whoking beat 96% of his peers, to being middle of the pack. julia: are his average returns over that time, and wife is three-year so important? : they are about 2.3% at this particular fund. three years is a good gauge because at least there been a few different changes in the market. you want to see how it's going up at times. in the case of a bond fund, 20

just rates are rising and falling or rising and falling. he has been doing essentially a fund that is supposed to protect investors against rising rates. bond prices fall when rates rise. the rates really have not taken off. there was a spike at the end of last year right after trump was elected. then they kind of settled back down again. megatrend he has been predicting for years really has not come to pass. his fund has not benefited relative to other funds because of this interest protection strategy. heol: when he was at pimco had a lot of institutional investors putting money with him. what did they think about bill gross now as an investor and money manager? john: the first thing people do is look at performance.

there another many people who are moving money into his fund. he also has a separate total return fund with a separate manager in europe. the old mutual total return fund, which is also middle of the pack. that is only $276 million. the current fund has $2.1 billion. half of that money is from his personal family funds. there is another $800 million. people pulled more than $300 billion from pimco when bill gross left. this is a fund in turmoil. i don't trust them with my money. not very much of that money followed bill gross. carol: of next, weight nestle -- the way nestle makes a mint with bottled water. this is "bloomberg businessweek ." ♪

julia: welcome back. carol: still ahead in this week's issue -- julia: a troubling check of the community health systems. in the chest guru on wall street. carol: all that had on "bloomberg businessweek." ♪ carol: we are back with megan murphy. so many more must reads in the edition this week. in the business section,

community health, at one time the largest for-profit hospital chain. megan: run by wayne smith, someone who has survived inarguably thrived in this business that has been at the forefront of the broader changes we've seen in the american health care system. theyrofit health systems, basically acquire, choir. they have huge debt now. they try to consolidate and figure out a way to increase the markets in the health care system. one of their bets was big on obamacare. particularly in states that expanded medicaid which expanded the population of lower income patients. that bet has been traumatic. it is really shining a light into how ruthless he has been a driving this forward at a time where i can't even believe i'm saying this, but it looks like once again we are trying to force through another repeal of

obamacare this week and next. carol: kind of reviewing about the hospitals within this company and some of the conditions patients were dealing with. megan: i don't think this story will be a surprise to anyone was visited rural health care provider. there are so many of us who have not. they are understaffed. they have too many people that are demanding their services. we have to remember in areas where people don't have ready access to health care, the hospital is often their only in first port of call. everything from minor injuries to very serious things. peoplend of conditions have unfortunately become accustomed to and taking the costs down and make these facilities profitable is intense to do. it does lead to accusations of declining care. carol: it does not sound like wayne smith will change what he

is doing. the stock is up. megan: let's put the ball on the table. this is the big existential debate. if you have a for-profit system, this is a business. he will treat you the way he treats any other business. keep costs down, drive profits up. their people that you health care as a right rather than a business. that is a tension you will always see about what people should expect. this debate will play out again and continues to play out in america. this is a tough tension between what is acceptable. carol: health care never been easy discussion. megan: it is certainly not. carol: let's talk about one of the features. nestle, the story i will be quoting for weeks. they look at their business of all the water. megan: power consumption of bottled water has risen to such exponential growth over the past several decades.

it is impossible to go anywhere without bottled water being accessible. to thatinto the access water and basically how so many of these communities in the u.s. and other places have given away their water rights. we are talking hundreds of dollars. not thousands or tens of thousands or millions of dollars. it is actually in the hundreds. this story is not about calling names. it is about have you ever really thought about what it takes and where the water is coming from? carol: especially when you think about a place like flight, michigan. their own water does not work so they have to buy bottled water. it seems that you have these companies with access to water for pennies and are selling it had a lot more. megan: a huge margin of profit on this. this is a business, but it is shining a light on how activists have mobilized.

this is a broader existential question. who should have the right to police how water comes out, where it's treated, and who makes the money from the water? it goes back to fundamental tenets. carol: we have more from brett begin. brett: nestle is the largest food company in the universe. what we looked at specifically in this story is their bottled water business and how they go about generating the sales they do. the last number we have is nearly $7.7 billion worth of bottled water sales, which accounts for about half of all bottled water sales in the world. in michigan specifically they sell just under $350 million worth of bottled water. they do that very carefully. they go into or tend to go into

states across the u.s. that have either very lax water laws, or what we would call reasonable use states. as long as you don't disrupt other wells or aquifers, you can take that you want. there are other states that say, if you own the land, you can take as much as you want no matter what. we look at two counties in michigan where they operate. -- both of them actually, they looked to bottled water specifically straight from springs, not just municipal supply. julia: to go back to the point about lax water controls, they were turned down an oregon, pennsylvania, wisconsin as well. why are of is less wary? bret: it comes down to money. if you think about some of the places nestle goes into, these

are fairly economically depressed areas. we look to a city in mission called everett. something like 44% of the people live below the poverty line. if you look at a company like nestle coming in that's willing to do with they did, that's a lot of money. the city makes nearly $250,000 a year from nestle. that money is not coming from anywhere else. they also said in addition for allowing us to pump directly from springs we will rebuild 14 softball fields at the local high school and redo the locker rooms and redo the bullpens. if you're the city, that's very appealing. in addition to the jobs it creates in other areas, they -- it created nearly 300 jobs. julia: you want infrastructure investment and benefits, and that's what these guys are providing.

assess the't question necessarily, but what they are skilled in doing is saying, look, we will help the city. we will help this done economically. for many places there really is not a plan b. they don't say yes to this, they don't have anywhere to go. just to be clear, there is a lot of local opposition when this happens. however, there are a lot of local officials that are quite happy to have the business. julia: questions about the longevity of human longevity and its founder. carol: and how google plans to make the world better. their big idea factory, jigsaw. julia: this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪

♪ julia: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." carol: you can find us online at businessweek.com. in the technology sector, they have raised half $1 billion in four years. julia: is jeff muska's. jeff: is a pioneer in the human genome mapping. isleta startup can do that and a lot more for about $25,000.

they can do the full genome sequence, plus ct scans, all kind of other genetic and fizzy anomic data testing. ionomic data testing. he says the first 1000 people that they can attest there 40% have discovered some kind of serious illness they can then treat. investors have been convinced in the short for years he has taken $500 million, valuing the atpany that $2 billion -- $2 billion. investors are convinced, scientists not so much. this is the number is more like 8%. carol: it sound like a medical holy grail, but there are critics about what he is doing. jeff: some doctors say this kind of comprehensive test is not particularly helpful in the way he says it is helpful.

some of the difference between ist 8% figure in the 40% what he calls essentially preventative medicine. catches conditions for prediabetes, he counted among the 40%. they say it is something you can treat preventatively. it with ayou can take blood test and often $25,000. jeff: a lot of people who've taken the test sake if you can spot a tumor, great. that is valuable. if it does not cap some kind of obvious red flag, the mountain of data is too much, even for trained physicians to understand. julia: it is a 400 page report. what do you do? you go to a doctor and say please help me? jeff: a lot of the folks we talked to said they struggled to separate the noise.

he says the problem is not a reports, it is the untrained doctors. carol: this beast of a bigger story going on and that is data collection. that is a big part of what he is about. is tothe endgame for hli build enough of a database for people's genetic codes that they can try to draw conclusions that might be sellable to big pharma companies about what genes affect aging and that sort of thing. julia: isn't there a problem in the u.k. government, united states are collecting this data especially when you're talking about people's dna. what makes this guy different? jeff: he would say his test is the best nes the best team behind him. julia: lazy cutting prices? -- why is he cutting prices? jeff: the u.k. bio bank and the

u.s. institute of health are threatening to scoop up the 500,000 or one million genetic codes you would need to really compile a database that is useful to big pharma. carol: and the focus on design section, google is trying to solve the world's biggest problems with jigsaw. >> jigsaw is an independent think tank and incubator under alphabet, the parent company for google. it started out in 2011 as google ideas. it was a little unit in google aiming at thinking about the kinds of issues people coming on for the first time outside of the u.s., outside of western europe, all these people coming online for the first time, how their experience is going to be different and how google can help them get online and giving them a better experience. julia: how does a get inside the heads of people outside the united states understand what their concerns are, what they want from a product they are

looking at? dune: i thought about this when it went to jigsaw's offices. it is right above chelsea market. there are seven dollars give some gelato underneath. i don't know how. is not just about coding. the have about 30 engineers and jigsaw. -- at jake so. -- at jigsaw. they recently took a trip to kenya to understand how people who are under the most pressure and facing the biggest problems we see on the internet, like direct government attacks, censoring what they are saying, harassment,theft or the campaigns of online harassment aimed at taking you off line and getting you to shut up.

they are talking to the people most under pressure in the world and trying to understand all the challenges they face. some things technology can't fix, but jigsaw has products that are meant specifically to help those kinds of people stay safe online. julia: like what. dune: they have cynical project shield. -- they have something called project shield. wherere a big adversary -- a big adversary like the government could attack something they don't like. it is easy to take that site off-line. project shield will help use technology to keep your site online in particular against this kind of attacks from much larger adversaries. julia: how do they find these individual companies that perhaps me to level of protection from censorship?

how to they locate these individuals and businesses? : partly it is going on fact-finding missions. they work with partners around the world. they work with bigger news organizations. they are trying to spread the word. these organizations should be able to find the product and be able to download it pretty easily. they are trying to redesign shield because they discovered it was a little -- when you are someone actually under attack right now you may not have a lot of technological capability. how can you design this application page to make it as fast and easy as possible and given the confidence to get to the application and do it? instead of saying i don't know was going on and it's confusing and i can deal with this right now. carol: the art world gets political. julia: or titans of finance turn for strategy and patience. carol: this is "bloomberg

businessweek." ♪

♪ welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." julia: you can listen to us on the radio on sirius xm channel boston, and am 960 in the bay area. carol: and in asia on the bloomberg radio plus app. julia: for more than two decades, the russian grandmaster has taught chest to civil wall street's biggest names. here is james carmi. james: he is one of the top players in the world and has been for decades at this point. he was one of the most famous soviet defectors in the late 1970's.

he had risen up from a small village in ukraine and become three-time ukraine chess champion. he was a really big deal and he can to the west in 1979. cikigb -- cologne . and then set himself up as not only a prominent against the soviet regime, but he also became this extraordinary chess teacher and writer of books. that in itself is something of an accomplishment. julia: he obviously speaks the high-profile people. carl icahn comes up from the article. why? fairly he loves chess, but is it as much about talking to smart people as it is about

implanting his knowledge of chess and strategy on them? but itas famous friends, is almost a completely separate group of people who are his clients. through the years he's had stephen friedman, the x chairman of goldman sachs, eliot spitzer currently takes lessons from him. carl icahn took lessons from him for years. i talked to him. he'll walk up in the afternoon, spent an hour playing, then come back. what makes it particularly funny is these people were coming to is in a walk up on east 81st street. it is by no means appellants'-- eight palace. -- a palace. these are people used opulent settings. this is kind of a small -- it appears to be a rent-controlled one-bedroom.

all these kind of matches of the universe make their way up there and spend hours taking lessons. julia: what is he like? i hesitated to describe them too much in the piece. it would seem like i was painting a caricature and the sense he still has a heavy russian accent. he is incredibly charming. buts clearly very bright, not socially awkward in a way that would make it difficult to engage with him. he is used to talking -- the word with the tidbits. he loves to chitchat and talk about politics. he has a healthy dose of fatalism to his worldview. he is quite mesmerizing presence, which i would imagine as part of his appeal. carol: a growing number of the

world's top art galleries are starting to showcase protest art. julia: i talked about this trend and what to expect with, rosenbloom. emma: we have a preview of fall shows around the world. is not so unexpected but a lot of the museums and galleries are heading on antiestablishment political protester. you see it all the way from the ine, liverpool, ps one, moma new york. curators are trying to figure out how to grapple with what is happening right now, the political of people in the world and how we reflect that so viewers will see this art and see these shows and not feel like you're being hit over the head with some kind of clunky protest art. it is a fine line, but some people are doing it well. we have highlighted the ones that are. julia: if we look at the array of options, it is not about

today's politics. as you mentioned earlier it's about what looking -- about looking at the past and looking forward. what happened with medieval persecution after the fall of the roman empire. it is going back a long way in certain cases, but also projecting forward in others. durham, atney, jimmy famous artist who is always grappled with persecution of native americans. that is a show that originally happened in 1982 that a small gallery in east alledge -- the east village. it is thematic of political strife happening at another time that people can now see the relevance of the art today and it's related to what is happening at the now. julia: it is basically taking some sense of social conscience given was going on in the world right now, whether it's in the

united states or beyond and getting some reflection of what we the in the past to get experience. >> there definitely is. the shows are just about the open so we will see how museum goers react to it. with shows like this you can get protests. people can protest the protest art. we will see if there are reactions in that way, but i think either way the fact that these museums and galleries are trying to grapple with the now is interesting and relevant. businessweek is available on newsstands now. more bloomberg television starts right now. ♪

♪ >> coming up on "bloomberg best," conversations from the bloomberg business forum. >> you cannot change the world if you are ignoring it. >> leaders in business mentioned change insights on pressing problems. >> the main weakness of europe is the lack of ambition. i would say china is learning a lot of things that they can progress. francine: from issues -- shery: from issues that speak directly from the bottom line -- >> there will be a recession but i don't know when it will occur. >> if none of that happens, you will see the market take a big