tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg December 11, 2017 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
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hunt may be over as conquest says it is no longer in the running. we are on bitcoin-watch j two. -- day two. this shows the volume and price action that we saw. 3818. prices were quite volatile. volume was highest right at the open. if in doubt as we headed toward u.s. trading hours. that was further evidenced among
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bitcoin critics. demand thate retail is fueling what we have seen. guest, stephent roach joining us from yale university. he is calling it a speculative bubble. it is just the first day. things could get more normalized. girl let's also -- betty: let's show you the u.s. market. nasdaq, the dow, and the all in the green. this is a solid recovery. investors were much more bullish
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on some of these sane stocks in tech shares. >> an unwind of this reversal that we saw a couple weeks ago. we are seeing a mixed session here so far. we're looking at new zealand and australia. the kiwi still holding onto solid gains. the deputy governor was named the next central bank chief. seen as a less radical appointment under the incoming government. we are seeing shares up about seven points right now. the aussie holding steady at 75. 29. we are seeing the aussie 10-year lowering overnight. japan taking a look at futures in chicago. we are seeing pointing to a
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fourth day of gains. dollar-yen is pretty steady. we are expecting producers rice is coming up this hour. betty: let's get to the first word news with jessica summers. . >> china is acting as a fast-growing hedge fund industry. securities regulators looking at market appropriation, misappropriation of funds and insider trading. some staff thought to ask what the hedging mechanism for .ersonal gain china's gains brought new credit the next month.
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more than $240 billion in november. that compares with estimates from a bloomberg survey of $190 billion and $160 billion in october. the prime minister theresa may has told parliament the $45ement to pay up to billion to settle the obligations to europe is dependent on the success of the next bond's talks. will be on the table withdrawn if a workable relationship cannot be agreed on. the accord is not legally binding but is a deal between gentlemen. >> i am in favor of a fair brexit. it is in the interest of everybody, the u.k., but all european people and states to find a balance agreement between the u.k. and europe. white bomberd
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injured himself and three other people in a blast in a times square subway station monday. police say the man was seriously burned in what they called an attempted terror attack. he came to the u.s. six weeks ago. investigators say he was acting on his own. dayal news, 24 hours a 2700ed by more than journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. >> bitcoin futures here on this second day of trading. a little bit slow going once again. it is pretty early still in the asian sessions so far. let's get to the global market editor adam haigh. he has been tracking all of
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these. what do you think is contributed to this premium gap? is it likely to narrow? punchy firstretty day in terms of trading and it was just the first day. volumes are fairly low. that might be a reason why you're seeing this cap between the prices you can get on the futures relative to the underlying spot price. we do talk about arbitrary traits that exist in the financial markets. pretty lofty.is listening to the interview we tilly, hehe ceo, ed expects the arbitrator to go away. that gap could narrow. we are less than 48 hours into
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trading futures for bitcoin. time, asis that over volumes get more, you will eventually see the gap narrow between features and the underlying price. it certainly is in the infancy, but how does the trading compared to other levels of futures trading? how do we compare and contrast? we are less than two days into this, so what we were looking at overnight, sunday into monday, the first nine or 10 hours of trading was only around $50 million worth of bitcoin futures. if we compare that the copper futures or nasdaq futures around that time, they traded in the order of $4.5 billion. we have a long way to go, this
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is the first futures exchange to begin trading. we have cme coming on board next week. as professional investors get more comfortable with the way that the securities are trading it is likely that volume will pick up over time. people want to use these as a hedging material, they allow you to make an outright bet on the price of bitcoin, but there typically used as a way to hedge fundamental to the way investors have to behave in financial markets. they need these futures if they want to be involved in the trading of cryptocurrency. it is likely we will see volume pick up and the small levels that we saw. >> can't go the other way. it has to pick up. don't miss our interview with the gemini co-founder, cameron
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and tyler winkle us. they were one of the first proponents of bitcoin. they were also probably one of the largest holders of the cryptocurrency. they predict it will see some blazing gains, that these gains are just the beginning. yvonne: a dizzying game of fox and mouse could soon be over. what a deal with the murdochs could look like later on this hour. >> could the republican tax cuts pay for themselves? we will look at what the treasury department says from about that plan. this is bloomberg.
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futures are looking slightly week in japan, futures down about 0.1% as we are a little bit over 45 minutes away from the open. the treasury department report claims a tax cut on debt proposed by republicans will pay for themselves over 10 years in commendation with president policiesther economic but the report does not include specific calculations, overall effect and critics say it that lacksrigorous -- that it rigorous economic backing. >> the treasury analysis did not move anyone's balls and any direction because it was mostly met with skepticism. a one-page analysis of a complex problem. there is a lot of negotiation
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going behind closed doors. there are a lot of elements of the tax plan the need to be tweaked. everyone is insisting that 20% is the goal, but no one is that the tax plan will die if it goes to 22%. in her to keep the spending and balance, that they need to get through the senate budget rules. there is a lot of pieces still moving, there will be a meeting on wednesday of the conference committee which is the house and senate group that are supposed to be hashing up differences. those differences are all being worked on by the leaders behind closed doors. tty: is this a hint of what we will hear from president trump on wednesday? >> what we will hear from president trump on wednesday is his main tax message. emphasizing that this is about
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middle-class, reparations bringing money back to the u.s. to invest in u.s. jobs and factories. there will not be a lot of detail. he is trying to push this over the line publicly. the polls are showing that their message has not been getting through. the number of polls and attitudes toward the tax plan show that a majority of people still think it is geared toward andwealthy and corporation not so much the middle class. that is a message that they need to break through. not only to get the plan passed but to take credit for it. >> we are also looking ahead to the special election in alabama on tuesday. we are seeing the president redoubling his efforts on behalf of roy moore. what is the likely impact? >> it will impact the senate whether way or another
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it is doug jones the democrat or roy moore the republican. that will give republicans in areress -- a lot of them set to yet this done before other man is seated. if doug jones wins they would lose another republican vote in the senate with susan collins wavering on the tax plan, and as far as roy moore goes, nobody is quite sure where he will stand on the policy issues. it's not clear that he will go along with senate leadership and go the direction that they want. much.nk you so i want to dig deeper into tax reform now. gary is a noted economist and a bloomberg view columnist. i heard that you have grown
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openly when you heard the lines at the treasury department noting, this will more than pay for itself. you said something like, sell me a bridge. -- 1964 tax bill introduced by kennedy and promised by johnson -- johnson promised it would not exceed $100 billion. it was $118 billion. you go to the reagan tax cats and the idea was it would pay for itself again. but it didn't, the deficit went up. that is always the song to sell these things but it doesn't work. much the flipside, how worse will this make things? cut.is is a corporate tax three quarters of it go to corporations. we are out of line with globalization. with 35% tax rates and ireland has 14%.
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we tax worldwide and everybody him in thees taxes country. that is why apple and microsoft have $2.6 trillion overseas. betty: this is going to help that. >> but about 90% of that money is invested in u.s.sw securities, treasuries,wwww corporate bonds andw stocks -- 90% of that money is invested in u.s. secretaries, treasuries, corporate bonds, and stocks. the money is already here, it's not going to make much difference in terms of the dollars. i had a bloomberg view columnist on this today, really wanting out that capital spending is really controlled by capacity utilization. if you look at apple, if they want to build another plane in this country they don't have to
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bring money back, they can bring up the banks and are only too happy to randomly float some bonds. it is a rationalization. it makes things more responsive. the other thing is individuals only get a quarter of this. the reason for that is for democrats it is anathema to cut taxes of the top but the top 1% pay 39 point 7% of all taxes and the bottom 50% pay only 2.8%. if you want to cut taxes for individuals you have to do it at the top. >> the vice president is calling this a christmas miracle but the argument is will they actually feel it. given how quick this overhaul has been for the republicans, is there a risk of any loopholes or glitches? unattended -- unintended consequences? benefits,tons of tax
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whatever you want to call it. the 1986 tax act did address a lot. this is a republican game. there are a lot of things they couldn't really touch. it has been on and off again. the deductibility of interest. the house has a $500,000 limit on mortgages. there is a lot of things, they haven't touched charitable donations or medical expenses, there are a lot of things that were not possible given the slim majority. think it is a rationalization. taxol gets more and more complicated because just about anything congress does for the constituents involves the tax code. more and more
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complicated and medic's and you have a catharsis and simple of occasion and to start all over. >> is there a ripple effect thentially to this part of world and asia from tax reform? the wall street journal is reporting that china and the authorities there are comparing for a contingency plan or a potential fed rate hikes next year. wave of flows of money actually shift back to the u.s.? >> mentioned earlier i don't think there will be a great change in cash flows. -- both% of that money apple and microsoft shared in ther annual reports that vast majority is invested in u.s. securities. another it will make a great deal of difference. the facts are that the world is awash with liquidity. money to dowants
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almost anything can get it very easily. >> it is awash in money it is for awash in looking returns. >> that is what bothers the fed, isn't that the returns are low it's that people don't accept that. summit he says i deserve 6% to 8% they move up on the wrist , toe to private equity bitcoin. that is a wonderful speculation. i compare that with the dutch poodle ball mania in the 1600s, but when worst came to worst in world war ii and holland was eatingd the dutch were tulip bulbs. >> are you in the camp that bitcoin is a bubble? oh yes. it has the smell of a ponzi scheme. the whole thing is secret, you
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don't know who created it. to minehe algorithms it, but any speculation starts with a kernel of truth. in this claim -- case it was a place for hot money to go in the swiss are out of that business. you have that. now it is getting into why do you buy it? because it is blowing up. >> should it be some think that the fed pays attention to? >> i think they should because it becomes money transferred. look at all of the money transferring things. you go through reams and reams of trading sessions and reports and anti-money-laundering. this is a classic vehicle for money laundering. later you have to do something about it, it is a source of liquidity that they have no control on. >> am surprised we haven't seen more on it.
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dennis muilenburg says that a strong and growing cash flow allows them to provide competitive returns to shareholders while continuing to invest in innovation and growth. insurance will provide life insurance for $2.2 billion. it will make them the largest retail life insurer in australia. they had net earned premiums of just over $1 billion through september and a net positive of about $140 billion. hsbc says the deferred prosecution agreement with the department of justice has expired signaling that the u.s. is satisfied with improvements. the doj will seek to dismiss the charges saying they have lived up to their commitments including money laundering and sanctions compliance. comcast withdraws from the hunt
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>> 7:30 a.m. tuesday on the cloudy morning here in hong kong, minutes away from asia's first major market open study. 6:30 p.m. here in new york. there aren't many concerns whether it is bitcoin or tax reform. i am betty liu. yvonne: i am in yvonne man in hong kong. let's get to the first word news with jessica summers. jessica: almost 3000 bitcoin futures contracts changed hands in the first 15 hours of trading
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with a value of just over $50 million. prices gained as muchw as percent, the same period saw trade in $5 billion of copper futures. the hong kong securities regulators warning it maybe a sell theoffense to futures ordered without a license. copper jumped the most in a must three weeks. slowdowneased about a in the world's biggest metal consumer. protections for slower chinese expansion helped put the metal to its biggest loss in two years. copper has risen 20% this year. the wall street journal says that china is preparing a strategy to offset u.s. tax changes in the feds expected rate hike. they placed modified sources that say the pboc will use higher interest rates, tighter capital controls and will frequent currency prevention.
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the measures may not be needed if the u.s. policy has only a limited impact in outflows. china has defended the wto's role in global trade after the u.s. argued that they are failing to meet expectations. that.s. negotiator said the ut out his too focused on legal complaints and distract from its core mission of expanded commerce. the trade commissioner also said the wto was not meeting its potential. and that cimb chairman says he is considering plans for a private equity fund a time when cross-border deals give what he saw as exciting opportunities. asdescribes himself semiretired and says he has been looking for opportunities to fill his spare time. >> one of the reasons -- we
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is thebe looking at, opportunity to cross borders. daylobal news 24 hours a powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. i am jessica summers, this is bloomberg. >> asian markets may be set to follow those gains. the new.s. equities at record high thanks to tech and telecom shares. kerley lines joining us now for some of the market moves. what stuck out to you today? >> it was just the shrugging off of all of these concerns. we had a bit of a rough start. you saw s&p futures dip a bit lower before the bell but they came back and closed a record high today which was a surge led by media and telecom. he saw apple and tesla up pretty big today.
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happent know what will yet so a lot of investors are holding off from making a big bet. >> we saw a big moves in the energy market. >> big moves in oil, the uti was hitting $58 per barrel. it really stems from the this pipeline system. it's a vital oil conduit and a major price maker and it is now helping operations entirely. wti along with it. really big gains today. >> that gap is widening as well. we were talking about bitcoin all day long the last 44 hours or so. there were quite a few hiccups along the way. >> overall the general sentiment was what is this going to do to the price of bitcoin itself. there was speculation that when you have the futures a price of
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bitcoin would go down. you saw touching new records today. it took a lot of exposed stocks with it and those have been down this, soe weeks up to all in all the have been some hiccups. there have been some bitcoin related equities dealing with these futures. looking ahead to that open in tokyo and seoul. beyond the bitcoin world, what are you looking at now? >> let's look quickly at australia. on the city had a big move by oil -- obviously, they had a big move by oil. i'm not going to go through a
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lot of the details here. we are up about 1% as a group. let's look at the other things we are following, the bloomberg commodities index. we're also looking at the clients. bloomberg, put might we might get the nikkei 225 opening a few points lower today. a lot of it comes down to the fact of consolidation into the year. >> we're ppi prices coming out of japan and a couple of minutes, india's cpi -- that will be a big one. >> that will be a big one. the bond markets have been bleeding for about five months.
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one of the world's largest importers of oil -- the inflation that comes through depends on the price of oil. you can make a fairly close correlation. 4.3% is what we are expecting. a lot ofh of deficits, people are pricing them in. yields are essentially pushing higher in india. at one of our graphics. there is your bond bleed. 7.2% is your 10 year yield. >> there is one right now that i'm looking at in australia. is gd go on your bloomberg.
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this gives you a snapshot of what you need to know about the stock. a lot of this comes down to the earnings side. >> it is not performing well on the index as well. very quickly some stocks we are watching on the chinese mainland they sold 200 and eight day bonds. and at the top of the hour japan opens up. income its full-year net forecast. lots of moving parts. thank you so much. a lot of moving parts. now we are talking about the contest or 20 for century fox
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story. -- 21st century fox story. comcast said they are no longer interested. disney announced they may announce a deal soon. thatseems to be a signal disney is a front runner here to be the merger candidate for fox. >> that is exactly right. they are closing in here. you always put a caveat on these. things could change. it looks like we are headed in this direction. ofney would buy a collectin assets from fox that would include a movie and tv studio. they would be cable what -- cable networks like fx and important international assets like the stake in sky, the u.k. satellite provider and star india.
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betty: is this going to have any trouble at all passing with regulators? is this likely to pass smoothly? get a pretty serious scrutiny from the justice department. some of think about these places, there are six major hollywood studios and disney and fox each own one of them. together isof them something the justice department will have to look at. on the sports side one of the assets under discussion is the fox regional sports network. if disney which owns espn gets control of those as well that will be a lot of sports rights that they will own. areas were the overlap is serious enough that it will cause some antitrust review. thene: he also talked about
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shares belonging to rupert murdoch and his family there could -- they could own a small --re of disney and rub rupert murdoch e-cig son could become the next bob iger it disney. >> they have an economic state -- stake in fox like 17%, if you do the math that works out to 4% or 5% of disney assuming the deal gets done. james murdoch seems to be open to coming to disney in a senior role. if he does that, he would have to be a contender. bob iger e-cig contract is up in i - iger's contract is up in 20119. a special adviser to the
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betty: we are counting down to asia's first major market open this morning, with japanese futures looking a little bit tepid. we are about 15 minutes away from the tokyo and seoul open. i'm betty liu in new york. >> i am yvonne man in hong kong. saysboc special advisor they are taking big steps to transform the country into a green economy. the interview with francine lacqua him a she spoke about the ma -- francine lacqua, jack
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spoke about the efforts to finance the projects. >> the green bonds were 0% in china and in two dozen 16 it went up to $200 billion to $200 billion domestically and $30 billion internationally. year, we haven't decided yet. francine: can you estimate? >> i think we can easily grow 30% per year for many years to come. 2% ofbonds remain only averages in china. in -- number in china is .till way too low francine: is this one of the priorities? why is green finance at the heart of what you are trying to do? >> the origin of the idea that is that the private
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sector has to finance the majority of the green projects. we were estimating that a fortune in renminbi was needed to invest in the green space including environmental remediation, green buildings, to green transportation and so on, but the government can only provide 10% of financing. capitalwhy mobilizing becomes key. francine: is china doubling up on financing because the trump administration is pulling out of the agreement or would it have been the same either way? >> in a think the u.s. e-cig decision to withdraw from paris has much impact on us. we are driven by the government policy division to build a green policy, green finance system. at the grassroots level, there are lots of green rodgers waiting to be finance. >> if you look at the incentive
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for the government and the pboc, this came from who? >> they have top levels and bottom levels now. they've repeatedly stated that the green transformational economy is the top priority. at the grassroots level people breathe air him a drink water, eat food every day. and all of these people are concerned about pollution. air pollution, water pollution. mid-level which is us, within the government and the industrial association, we have to make the change. >> 30% growth is what you are estimating, it is a huge amount. an international investors look >> -- do aen bonds
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lot of international investors look at your green bonds? --st: francine: what kind of investors are picking up on it? >> as a global example i see a lot of green bonds in europe, 70% of their green bonds were bought by european investors. >> is it pension funds, is it banks? insurance isy probably the primary sorts of investors. francine: can you give us an idea of the level of priority that green financing has from authorities in china? is it number two, number three? number five? document called the 19th party congress which has only a few sentences on finance and one of the sentences is green finance. law speaking to
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betty: we are getting reports from tokyo that the shiva has settled its dispute with western digital over their flash memory chip. an announcement could come soon. here is your asia technology reporter in tokyo. how likely are we to get a settlement? reporter: maybe just a quick primer on what is happening. this has been going for a few months. toshiba is selling a consortium
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of companies for about $18 billion. western digital, a manufacturing partner, is opposing the sale because of some of the rivals within the consortium. they went to the legal means to stop the sale and we have been at this for a few months. weeks, lawyers and executives on both sides have been quiet. sources are telling us that the agreement is imminent. that is not a surprise because the companies are tightly -- are not tightly intertwined. betty: expectations are that there will be one. what are some of the details to watch out for in the settlement? pavel: the basic trade-off would be that western digital will drop its claims in arbitration against toshiba, and in return toshiba will drop its own lawsuit. the companies will agree to invest in a new facility that
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toshiba is building that can have 3-d memory output capacity. this is important for western digital who has no other access to flash memory chips. see -- thee may not future of joint ventures, which may expire in a few years. toshiba owns the technology and the plans. western digital is mostly supplying capital. betty: let's say that this does happen imminently. what is next for toshiba and western digital? toshiba andant for its investors is that toshiba will make its march 2018 deadline to receive the funds to cover the negative shareholder equity and cover the listing. toshiba still owns 40% of the business. bain has says they -- has said they are planning an ipo in a
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couple of years. they will be completing -- competing with hynex and samsung. yvonne: we look ahead to that. pavel, our asia tech reporter. some breaking news crossing bloomberg from tokyo. we have the japanese ppi prices in november. we are seeing an upside here. 3.5% year on year. some were expecting things to edge lower from the previous month. month on month numbers also seeing an upside of 0.4%. the estimate was for a 0.2% rise. a lot of factors driving this. we have seen higher commodities. crude oil prices have been elevated. that has created upward pressure. bloomberg economics talking about how we will see a challenging base effect study in
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2018. year on year against moving forward will be moderate at best. we had that strong yen from october as well. betty: we are seeing the yen strength in just a little bit on the back of these numbers. stronger ppi numbers than estimated. let's get a check on the latest bloomberg five headlines as well -- bloomberg flash headlines as well. citingnts are being sued claims they failed to complete a deal for the u.s. tech firm because they provided false and inconsistent information about ownership. seeking -- millions of dollars in damages from hna. yvonne: abu dhabi has confirmed it was the mystery buyer of a da vinci masterpiece last month and says the record price was correct. he says it is an exceptional piece and the $450 million price
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tag was right. there are reports -- were reports that the painting had been purchased by the crown prince of saudi arabia. arey: mastercard and others ending the need for a signature on purchases. from april, they will note military need to sign at the checkout. isx says chip technology harder to dupe, lessening the need for fraud-fighting weapons. merchants had in pushing for the move. yvonne: president trump has turned his attention from tax the alabama senate race to more exotic targets. he is challenging -- channeling his inner astronaut and is challenging nasa to go back to the moon. he says it would be a giant step toward an aspiring future. the white house did not provide their return how
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to the moon would be funded or whether any current programs would be cut. we can all hope. betty: not a surprise. big goals, but no details. we will let his team figure that out. why go back to the moon? we were there already. the new destination should be mars. i don't know about you, i know a few people who would voluntarily go. they say that is the next frontier. yvonne: we have to call it on must and see how he feels -- elon musk to see how he feels about all of this. looking ahead to our next hour, we have the market open coming up in seoul and japan. we're also looking at those ppi numbers. china going to hone in on and the credit data for november. it is jumping unexpectedly. we will get the take from the yale university senior fellow stephen roach.
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yvonne: 8:00 a.m. in hong kong. i am yvonne man. welcome to "daybreak asia." asia-pacific markets said to build on the gains on wall street. the s&p set a new record ahead of the fed. oil at its highest for 2.5 years. brent jumped as they shut down a key north pipeline. betty: i am betty liu in new york, where it is after 7:00 p.m. on this monday evening. euphoria, but also growing doubts. small volume shows it is still baby steps for bitcoin.
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hydrogen, traditional combustion. where the auto industry is going. yvonne: just taking a break from bitcoin before we get to it later on. one big thing happening of course is the fed meeting kicking off on tuesday for you guys. it will be big. a watershed moment. the last potential rate hike from janet yellen before she steps down. the first year where the fed delivers on its dot plot of three rate hikes a year. their previous forecast was the start of the year. the big question is what's going to happen to the dollar in light of what we are going to see in 2018? g #btv 3923. if you look at the previous fed tightening cycles in 1994 and
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2004, as rates start to rise, we did see the dollar dropped, proceeding those cycles, moving forward. preceding the cycles, moving forward. the rate hike is a done deal, but the dot plot, those forecast,s are going to be what we are focusing on. if we get the three if not thatthat wilur -- four, will lead to choppy trade. betty: it is not just the fed interest rate hikes, but also tax reform package. how supportive is that going to be for the greenback? clearly, something to watch. right now, the dollar unchanged at this point. first word news with jessica summers, who have got more. andica: zurich insurance the life insurance operations for $2.2 billion.
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the deal with expected to close by the end of next year and will make direct the largest retail licensure in australia with 19%. earnings premiums of just over $1 billion through september and that profits of $140 million. gauge toppedest forecasts last month, signaling the deleveraging drive has not slowed lending. it was more than $240 billion in november. that compared with estimates in the bloomberg survey of $190 billion and 160 billion dollars in october. policymakers want to balance credit flow to the real economy and curbing potentially risky loans. theresa may has told parliament the agreement to pay up to $45 billion has settled the u.k.'s obligation to pay europe, dependent upon the successful round of talks. she says the cash is on the table but will be withdrawn if a
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workable trading relationship cannot be agreed. the commissions as last week's accord is not binding, but was a deal between gentlemen. the suspected pipe bomber injured himself in a times monday.tation the 27-year-old man was seriously burned in what they called an attempted terror attack. he is aold police follower of the so-called islamic state, but investigators say he was acting on his own. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 100 20 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. anchor: let's take a look at the market open in tokyo and seoul. david ingles has more for us. i think traders are keeping the powder dry ahead of the fed. a lot of these are overextended, over allocated to equities. that is what a lot of people has told us.
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in a lot of ways, you do understand why there is a period of consolidation going on here. we are watching for a few things across markets. pti out of japan coming out. inflation coming out of india later tonight. i will talk about that in a bit more detail in just a few moments. just a snapshot across markets. two-year yields in south korea up 13 basis points. we are also watching oil as well , very much in the mix. brent, will be talking more about that. -- we will be talking more about that. pipeline is being fixed. there was a crack. that is something we will be talking about in a few moments. fairly mixed at the open in japan and south korea. australia is doing this. .1% higher. copper, metals, and just broadly, the miners on the way up. japan and a look at how things divvy up in that market, imap as well.
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case, you're getting declines across a lot of the mining stocks. industrials are high. together, we are basically flat on that market. you look at the nikkei, vix, here to give you a sense. same story, 2017, as we move into 2018. there is no vol. our loads are closer to 12. we are approaching that again as we move into the year. a very interesting composition. when the splits, what happens to other things? a few things we are watching across the region, we are following a few names here. there we go. this companyalia, down about my percent. ntt.e in decent set of guidance. 2.5% at the open.
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we are coming off the opening minutes to note. it is basically saying it has yet to make a decision on whether we will get that settlement. the last thing he saw their of an airlines, closer to 8% yield. we need torstand refinance when it comes to the group. watch that torre very closely. watched thats -- story very closely. here we go, as i promised. we are looking at a survey. 4.2%. oil is on the up. don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the relation between how oil prices really move inflation moving forward. this bond bleed in india is expected to gain more traction. betty. betty: indeed. lots of moving parts to watch. thank you so much, david and close, with a look at some of the markets right at the open. speaking of markets that are trading, bitcoin futures on day
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two bank of trade, and right now, down 4%, trading at 17,800. contracts have been priced as high as 13%. premium to bitcoin itself since trading began 24 hours ago. our tech reporter is tracking all of this. the big takeaway we keep hearing from everyone today is volumes are still quite low, and these are the early days. you cannot read too much into this. what else can we take away from this? >> i talked to a couple of sources at two big global banks. a european one and an american one. i said how did it go?i knew that they were allowing trading from day one. they said that we actually did not see any volume at all. very little volume. you know, they did a couple of test trades, and a lot of the official clients have not yet dipped their toes into the
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water. it is early. it has arrived on wall street, but we are not seeing wall street money and bitcoin yet i think. unusual? this on an on how futures contracts usually launch, this is not unusual. give it a couple of days to test the front end trading systems and your backend systems, and i think that is ok that you don't see a lot of activity early on. the question is what happens on january 17? that is when these january contracts expire, and how the whole process works, a lot of people are waiting on the sidelines. the contract is based on the final settlement. people know how that works, they can build their trading strategies on top of that. people are waiting. maybe we will not see it for a couple of weeks in fact. we have been talking about this arbitrage premiumity with quite a
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we are seeing right now for bitcoin. is that likely to narrow? which ones should we be focusing on? good yeah, that's a question. i think the arbitrage opportunity is definitely there right now because of what we just talked about. notcial investors are really that active yet. a lot of them are still feeling it out. i think one thing to keep in mind for cboe is the exchange gemini that they base their pricing on, it does not really offer shorting opportunities to regular investors, so if the price, you know, if the price, the swap price goes above -- the spot price goes above the futures, it may be hard to arbitrage that. we are seeing a 13% premium. that should be arbitragible to most investors. they are not really in the bitcoin market. what is interesting is that as soon as the futures launched, we
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saw a huge rally in underlying i think a lot of that was a relief rally. prior to the futures launched, we heard wall street is going to bitcoine heck out of with these bitcoin futures. because i did not happen yesterday, the underlying bitcoin price rallied. really -- has not not really put their money into these bitcoin futures yet. maybe a little bit of that rally was premature. we are already in mid-december, approaching mid-december. i really don't know how many official investors are going to jump in when a lot of people are on holiday. market analysts and hedge fund analysts -- we are not going to see activity from wall street this year. maybe early next year. maybe the next date to look at. yvonne: january could be pretty
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exciting. yuji nakamura, joining us live from tokyo. joining us now, stephen roach, senior fellow at yale university. he has some opinions when it comes to bitcoin. [laughter] yvonne: thank you for joining us. you mentioned that bitcoin is a dangerous specular bubble -- speculative bubble. stephen: i said that when it was $12,000. now, it is 50% higher, and i cannot underscore enough that it is not a debate about the intrinsic value of blockchain cryptocurrencies, which over time will probably prove to be beneficial and lasting. this is a security that was selling for less than $1000 at the start of the year, and is now up 17 fold. the line is vertical. vertical lines are not sustainable in financial markets, whether it is nasdaq or
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any of the other well-known bubbles that we have seen in the last 10 years. bitcoin is hardly going to be an exception. yvonne: given what we have seen in the trading activity with bitcoin future so far -- i know it is very early. does it signal to you that perhaps these decentralized cryptocurrencies are just not ever going to be mainstream? stephen: no, it does not tell me anything. this is a security that is just now beginning to get traded with some liquidity and exchanges, -- in exchanges, and i don't think you can draw any meaningful conclusion about the long-term value. yvonne: doesn't that limit at least the price manipulation, provide a little bit more stability now that institutional investors can enter into this market as well? stephen: that is going to take some time. as your correspondent just said from tokyo, institutions are not
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jumping in and trying to participate in this market early on. betty: are you surprised that we have not heard more from regulators on bitcoin? well, nothing surprises me with respect to our regulators. [laughter] stephen: i think they are sort of like a deer frozen in the headlights. they don't know what to make of it. inetary authorities particular are stymied as to how a blockchain currency would fall under the purview of monetary policy and monetary control. and i think there is some concern this is a speculative bubble. but like most of the bubbles they weighed in on over the last couple of decades, they always tell you "don't worry. it's a small bubble. it can't do damage to the overall markets." one thing we have learned from are always as
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strong as the weakest portion of the membrane. we had u.s.e went, central bankers say "don't worry.it's only a small portion of securitized outstanding." the entire market imploded over the next 2.5 years. i don't know if bitcoin is the bell that is going to ring for the overall markets, but the overall stock market in the u.s. is at valuation levels we have seen only twice in the last 130 years according to scheller's metric those are not very comforting. betty: we would not want to repeat the history of those two moments. stay with us. we have more ahead because we are going to talk about the markets and said policy with stephen roach. don't miss our interview on bitcoin with the company's cofounders. they are thought to be one of the largest holders of bitcoin,
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predicting the cryptocurrency's blazing gains this year are just the beginning. catch that at 9:30 tonight in hong kong and 8:30 tuesday morning in new york. something to look forward to. yvonne: electric avenue. what is ahead for the auto industry in 2018. we get our predictions from bloomberg intelligence later on this hour. betty: we will look at how asia's surging debt is leaving out legacy for the bankers. our conversation with stephen roach continues in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪
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asia economic economist joining us in our hong kong set. which central banks do you think have to tread carefully? enda: asia has led the race to add on debt. the feeling with the global target coming to asia, led by south korea moving for the first time in a number of years -- any rate hikes will have to be slow because of the household that. 150% of household consumption. at 88%ia is at 190% are of gdp. these are examples of countries whereby there may be some prospects for monetary tightening next year, but it will have to tread carefully because of the sensitivity of borrowers who borrowed at very low rates. mentioned south korea. they hiked recently, the first
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in some years. the picture is not quite uniform trade which economies do you think can withstand a hike if they need to? enda: one good standard is the philippines. be philippines is set to among the first. sincere tipped to move -- upgraded their sovereign credit ratings, pushing through touch and forms that are said to strengthen their fiscal position and crucially, household debt is low. if there's going to be a change in circumstance globally, if we are seeing acceleration, the philippines is in a position to respond whereby they can move without tipping over the household sector. >> what about china? trying to get the chinese consumer -- >> that has been picking up, too. enda: mortgages are certainly increasing at a rough close in china, but a big thing is corporate debt. it is one reason why the pboc
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was out to keep an eye on that. the inflation is relatively subdued, so the feeling is the pboc will pursue policies rather than outright interest rate hikes. betty: you took the words right out of my mouth. is saying.hat enda how big of a risk do you think these high levels of debt -- how big of a risk is that for the economy there? stephen: betty, i think the biggest risk on the asian debt front is the point that enda just made is that corporate debt, especially soe debt in china, tied up into the whole nexus of state owned enterprise reform, which has been lagging. you know, these are government-owned entities that have insatiable thirst for credit, and, you know, the state
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-directed banking system has been more than willing to provide that credit. that's a problem. the government has been focused repeatedly on deleveraging, but we don't see any meaningful progress on the reform front yet, and that is a concern of mine. betty: i want to talk more about asia, but let me bring that back to the rest. easy money. we have seen the easy money start to decline in the u.s. the fed about to make its next policy decision. another rate hike. what is it? fed fund futures pricing at 100% that we are going to see him wednes -- see on wednesday? where do you stand on rate hikes? in the camp, betty, that would like to see them move very aggressively to normalize rates, because the
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failure to do that runs risk of repeating the same mistake that they made prior to the last crisis, saying glacial normalize asian allowing market to remain frothy and the u.s. economy to continue to grow on the basis of frothy markets, and we are at the same point again. i think the longer the fed draws out this normalization campaign, the greater the risk headed to another crisis. betty: even with very little wage pressure, stephen? stephen: look, the story about normalization should not be inflation. it should simply be getting interest rates back to a more sustainable long-term level. markets priced more on the basis of fundamentals rather than on the injection of axis liquidity by central banks that time eormalization -- ti normalization to inflation misses the point of unconventional policy that pushed rates down and balance sheets up in response to an emergency which has long since passed.
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yvonne: just talking a little bit about what stephen was mentioning about credit we have seen in asia, china, we have seen the credit did coming through in november. we were expecting things to slow down amid this deleveraging campaign, and we saw this unexpected jump. why? enda: one silver lining was there seems to be a continued squeeze on the shadow banking sector. a lot of mending is going back on balance sheet now, something of a positive. the backdrop is interesting. china needs to really focus and go harder on the deleveraging side of things. the imf last week warning that banks may need to raise capital in adverse circumstances. we have our own estimates forecasting debt to increase 300% of gdp by 2020, a doubling since 2008. there is a growing sense of urgency to get a grip on it, especially among the corporate side of things. we have cleared party congress. it will be a real test of
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whether they are serious about reingiing that in. yvonne: a lot of these numbers we have seen -- how much growth does china need to sustain a decent level of credit growth? stephen: everybody is focused on growth on a headline basis. i think they care much more about the mix. if they are getting shifts in services andds consumption, that is consistent with a slow growing economy. they are more than willing to acept that as a price for more reasonable balance between debt and economic growth. stephen, do you think they can achieve this balance your talking about in terms of on the one hand pushing through the deleveraging, campaigning against the debt side of things, tipping the economy into a much sharper slowdown?
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how far down the road do you think they can go without causing problems? stephen: i think they have got a lot of leeway to play with here. they still have an enormous savings cushion, which i think that together with their gigantic reservoir of foreign exchange reserves, it will enable them to withstand the types of pressures that might derail other economies that are faced with debt issues and potential exits of international investors. that that does not excuse them from the need to review address this problem, and again, i come back to the point -- the one thing that is missing in my otherwise very constructive view of china is the willingness for them to address state-owned enterprise reform. and by doing it with this sort of new model of mixed ownership, soe reform, i think that is
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financial engineering. it does not address the basic core problems of an in efficient conglomerates and efficient -- in conglomerates. it proved so damaging in the 1990's and 2000's . >> before we go, i have a question on this chart. back in the u.s., the treasury yield curve continuing to flatten. i am curious what you think the fed can do to steepen the yield curve? stephen: the fed can only control the short end, betty, so the long end is market-determined, and that is a pretty extraordinary chart. you just showed my of company, morgan stanley, is likely in 2018, a rather controversial call. , i think, is taking , below from inflation
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yvonne: 8:30 in singapore. a little bit hazy this morning out in the lion city. half an hour away from the open in singapore. betty: i'm betty liu in new york. you're watching "daybreak asia." jessica summers. jessica: almost 3000 bitcoins futures contracts changed hands in the first 15 hours of trading. prices gained as much as 26%, the same period thought trades almost $5 billion worth of copper futures. in hong kong, securities regulators warning there may be a criminal offense to route orders from the territory without a license.
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china's credit growth helped copper jumped the most in almost three weeks. prices rebounded through the three dollars threshold as concerns ease about a slowdown in the biggest metals consumer. projections helped than the metal to the biggest loss to more than two years last week. copper has risen over 20% this year. and europe are you the system is failing to meet expectations. as trade ministers gather, robert lighthizer said the wto was too focused on legal complaints, which distract from mission of expanding commerce. he said the wto was not meeting its potential. a senior advisor to president erdogan of turkey said the economy is back on its feet and no longer needs the stimulus introduced after last year's failed coup. earlier,d from a year
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comfortably beating estimates while november inflation accelerated to the highest and 2003. the attempted coup pushed the economy into a quarterly contraction. andhe confidence is back, the sustainability of the economy's growth will come by the improvement in the confidence and investments. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. jessica, thank you. time to see how the asian markets are shaping up. half an hour to trade in japan and south korea. david ingles has more. david. david: thanks, betty. the benchmark is slightly lower. we are looking at a mixed picture for the equity markets. we only have four markets open at this point. here is the fund coming through in australia because of the pop we are getting across a lot of the metals prices right now.
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if you did have to pick just one small group of winners, that's it so far. when you look at the minors over in australia, the rest seeing a bit of pressure. in southmassive drop korean two-year bonds, and all of this strength coming through in the currency. the equity markets and the quite as well, about .3% lower. this is how things give the up across south korea. a few usual names leading the decline. consumer staples. you are looking at financials. everything from brokerages, insurances, seeing pressure in that market. region, let me show my mov function to get a sense of the big movers up and down. there we go. gf and bgfs -- b retail down 15%. also very much in the mixer. what else? ,e are also looking at toshiba
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2.7%. the company now saying it has not yet made a decision. it is in discussions, so watch that stop there closely. this company which makes things that make your food taste better or make you feel better about yourself. getting an upgrade from -- a downgrade, rather, at mizuho to neutral. we arekkei 225 trade, moving into the new year. we had a massive run-up, of course, about a month back. here is your index. here are your january 2018 calls. when we fight above that, expectations are a little bit too high, but that being said, you're getting some pricing in here that we might see that index. a few points short of 23,000. my get there by this time next month. and of course, the fundamental story in japan is because you
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had such a good earnings season there, the index is cheater than it was compared to the start of the year, or 18 months ago. this is the chart. 4004. just very quickly, oil, of course, is the big story. last close for brent. 6469, which updates at the top of the next hour. there is a crack that needs to be fixed. it takes two weeks. the uae also saying over the last way four hours or so that in case the oil market rebalances early, perhaps there will not be a need for the oil production cuts all the way into the end of next year, so all the angst together, there is a move up in your oil price closer to 65. yvonne: thank you. automakers around the world make no big push to go electric. traditional petroleum-powered engines are not likely to get
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out for the next decade. the outlook for asia's auto industry in the coming years. how energy markets could be affected. bloomberg intelligence's auto analyst steve mann joining us. also want to bring in justin wu, joining us live from tokyo. we have seen shares of some of these asian automakers. ndai, alle and a -- hyu underperforming in asia this year. how do you think this will perform next year in 2018? >> if you look at the entire peer group, you see some mix. some of the others have underperformed. overall, the peer group we ended up your to date underperforming the msci index. i think, going into 2018, you will see greater divergence between msci and the asian automakers. if you look at the bigger market caps, and you mentioned a couple ,f them, you know, like toyota
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honda, nissan. if you look at the japanese, they are going to see increasing risk in the u.s.. u.s. sales are slowing down, and they are probably not going to get as big of an ethics benefit like they did in 2017 going into 2018. yvonne: we have seen auto sales growth slowdown. what is the potential risk it could drop next year as well? steve: the risk is high. in 2015, they lowered the sales tax for autos, for small cars, from 10% to 5%. they increase the back to 17 point -- 7.5%. pull has been a lot of forward demand that has occurred in the last two years. last year's sales were astronomical given the size of the market. this year, it is down slightly. i think next year, we will continue to see it slowdown. yvonne: there is a lot of prospects when it comes to the
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electric vehicle industry for china as well. i wanti want -- justin, to throw the question to you. very ambitious when it comes to environmental control. they had this ambitious timetable when it comes to ending production and sales of fossil fuel-powered vehicles in general. the japanese automakers are threatened by this kind of trend that we are seeing here in china that potentially this is a turning point where they will fall behind china? justin: certainly. japaneseee is that electro vehicle sales are falling behind china, especially in the third quarter. only .7% of the new auto sales -- half of what it was earlier this year. we see vehicle sales in china one increased to about 2% the auto sales. china is pulling ahead of japan
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when it comes to new electric vehicle sales at this point in the year. steve.do agree with is due to the cuts in subsidy is expected at the end of this year. we are sort of seeing a demand getting pulled forward here in china. in japan, you also expect that in q4, with the rerelease of the nissan leaf, that electric vehicle sales will gradually increase again here in japan, though it is not going to be as much as what we see in china, which is actually now the undisputed leader in terms of new electric vehicle sales this year. in fact, i think we are seeing half of all new electric vehicle sales across the world coming from china, so it is going to be the largest market by quite a bit. betty: it is incredible, this boom we are seeing in electric cars. this question directed back to steve.
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we talk a lot about tesla, but some of the problems going on for elon musk, falling far short of its target of trying to get 5000odel three's 5000 -- model three per week. part of that or a lot of that having to do with suppliers and in particular the battery. suppliers. is in china and japan, some of the biggest risks to the growth of electric vehicles. >> elon musk is a very good marketer, and rightfully so. he is the ceo of the company. that is his job, to market the company. i think for china, they have taken a step back. iam sure battery ev's -- think going forward, what really needs to be in place to make the increasingly stringent emissions standards is hybrid vehicles. kind of mentioned
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japanese automakers in their electric vehicle sales in japan, and i think the japanese automakers will do very well in china. they own a lot of the hybrid technology. if you look at the last three to four month, battery ev's versus hybrid vehicles. the growth of hybrid vehicles outpaced battery ev. battery ev sales is still 4.5 times greater than hybrid at the growth rate, but hybrid is surging right now in china. betty: would you agree with that? justin: yeah, i mean, if you look at the numbers now, hybrid vehicles are surging as steve rightly mentions. the other thing we see is that battery costs are actually surprising. recently, we did a survey on battery cost close to $200, which is quite a bit lower, 24% lower than they were in 2016.
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essentially, we are going to see that in 2017, the fall in battery cost, exceeding our expectations. , themanufacturers in china battery manufacturers are going lower than that, 19% lower than the $200 or so. yes, i think that there is, you know, i think there is sort of still -- the jury is still out in terms of hybrid vehicles and battery electric vehicles. the fundamental drivers of battery cost, decreasing the cost of batteries and the scale that chinese betty read manufacturer -- battery manufacturers is quite impressive, exceeding some of our more bullish forecast when it comes to that. betty: i'm curious about fuel cell technology. we have heard people like elon fuel cell, criticize preferring electric vehicles and the electric battery. what is the latest out of this? japanese automakers like nissan
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have really been proponents of this. justin: i think, when it comes to fuel-cell vehicles, sort of, you will see that automakers are investing sort of in both at the same time. so while there is a lot of in fuel-cell vehicles, they are investing in battery and fully electric vehicles or hybrid electric vehicles as well. the issue of fuel-cell vehicles is similar to that of electric vehicles in the sense that you have to build the infrastructure before you really have a mass deployment. at the moment, you know, sort of observing what is happening in the market, we do see that charging infrastructure is getting ahead of sort of infrastructure needed for fuel-cell vehicles, even though they are still a long way to go for the charging infrastructure for electric vehicles as well. so usually, it is cost and infrastructure which are the biggest challenges. steve, talk a little bit about
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2018. what should people really be looking for when it comes to greater electrification in asia in particular? are there certain clues or measures you're looking for or seeing? steve: one of the things -- we talk a lot about electric vehicles, and to a certain extent, i think it is hyped up. what people are forgetting is ,hat in the next 10 to 20 years the only way to meet the stringent emissions standards globally is still the internal combustion engine. and so, that is not dead yet. there is a lot of work being done to improve the efficiency of that engine. right now, the internal combustion engine. the efficiency is only 50%. 50% is wasted. the energy is wasted. there is a lot of work being done. delphi with to let technology is another version of this deactivation. it shuts down part of the engine
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while it was traveling on the highway and it cuts up to 50% costs of fuel savings. there's a lot of savings being done. i think going into 2018 and beyond will start focusing on some of these newer technologies being introduced to traditional toder" combustion engine kind of meet some of these more tighter emission and fuel efficiency standards. yvonne: very exciting news in the space, obviously. thank you, steve man, joining us from bloomberg intelligence. i want to thank justin wu. that on alternative assets. in particular, real estate in japan. we have the details, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: this is "daybreak asia." i'm yvonne man in hong kong. betty: i am betty liu. a quick check at the business headlines. boeing has raised this dividend. programg a $14 billion a year ago. to one dollar, $.71. cash flow growing allows return to shareholders while continuing to invest in innovation and growth. yvonne: two units of china's hna group over claims they fail to complete a deal for a u.s. tax firm -- tech firm because of inconsistent information about the ownership. from tech international and hna group international. hsbc says its five-year
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deferred prosecution agreement with the department of justice has expired. theu.s. is satisfied with systems after a money-laundering scandal in mexico. thedoj will seek to dismiss charges saying they have lived up to all of their commitments in regards to money-laundering and sanctions compliance. yvonne: forget stocks and bonds. a unit of j.p. morgan says it has passed a budget on japanese real estate and infrastructure. gareth allan has more from tokyo for us. gareth, what is the attraction to some of these alternative assets in japan? him while heoke to was in tokyo. ofis the global head alternative investments. the portfolio is $130 billion. assees japanese real estate an attractive investment, not only because they have mor quite
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good cap rates, but there is leverage in japan. very low interest rates here, which can help to maximize the returns. a maximum of 50% in the appropriate level. this includes infrastructure such as solar and wind generation. in osakareal estate and tokyo, where the population is growing. but also the infrastructure and shipping assets. yvonne: why is j.p. morgan recommending clients to buy these real assets? gareth: yeah, i think it is the global divergence is emerging in central-bank policy. you have the stock starting to sell down its balance sheet,
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moving to do similar things while the bank of japan is buying assets. exposure to the differentiation in the market as the long-term rally in fixed income in the states is likely to come to an end. they suggest the alternative real assets can provide a proxy for fixed income at the fixing of england markets starts to fall apart -- income market starts to fall apart. yvonne: thank you so much, gareth allan, banking reporter into a gill. don't forget, our interactive tv function, tv . up can watch us live, catch on past interviews, as well as dive into any of the securities of the bloomberg functions we talk about. thecan become part of conversation by sending us in cinema's it is during our shows. this is for bloomberg subscribers only, so check it out at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> take a look at how markets are faring so far on this tuesday morning. the nikkei 225 seeing a little bit of upside. we did get factory prices that came through that were better than expected for the month of november. pretty slow going here ahead of the fed, betty. betty: that's right. and over in sydney, markets are also just a touch higher after the equity markets were here in
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the u.s. rally. the s&p asx up .1%. seoulver at the kospi in and how korean shares are trading right now. the kospi actually bucking the trend at this point, down .2%, trading at 2466. singapore starts trading in just over 15 minutes time, pretty much flat, is what we are seeing. the singapore msci futures. howne: so that's a look at the markets are trading in asia. this is "daybreak asia." and i am yvonne man in hong kong. taking a look at the business flash headlines. apple confirmed it is buying shazam. the maker of an app that can recognize a song after a few bars. i use it all the time. sources say apple will pay $400 million for the london-based
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startup. that will disappoint some investors who include carlos slim. at $1 billionued in its last funding round just two years ago. betty: american express joining mastercard and others in ending the need for a signature on purchases. amex customers will no longer have to sign at the checkout for credit or debit card transactions. chip technology and global payment options are harder to dupe, lessening the need for signatures as a fraud fighting weapon. yvonne: german shoemaker birkenstock is walking away from amazon, saying it is seeing more -- then it can stand. they are shipping the products to the retailer in europe, saying amazon is hitting on its hands while terminals sell counterfeit versions online. stopped doing business in the u.s. because of what it calls a breakdown in trust. that is it from us on daybreak
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asia. a quick look at what is coming up on the next few hours. what are you watching? haidi: we're going to talk more about bitcoin, the theme of the week. we will keep an eye out. take up on that debut. we are speaking to capital and international chairman and ceo to get his views on cryptocurrencies. he says there is no doubt that we are in a bubble. going to look at why that is happening and why investors are really ignoring all of the other current the currencies and why bitcoin -- cryptocurrencies, and why bitcoin is getting the attention. tech goingkes china into next year. talking to hsbc's head of asia-pacific equities, specifically talking about their new venture when it comes to the chinese market.
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he sees short-term pain when it comes to valuations. that picking up in the second half of next year. and finally, could alexa be the banker of the future? thinking from alexa. we will be talking to the leader for china and hong kong. he is going to be talking about bitcoin as well and the regulatory problems that have been plaguing the cryptocurrency so far, and what in particular in places like tax regulators should beginning involved and implications that has are investors and giving us a bit of an outlook when it comes to initial coin offerings going into next year. can't get away from it, betty. it is still bitcoin. betty: can't at all. that is it for "daybreak asia." our markets coverage continues with haidi. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ haidi: dealing with debt. deleveraging campaign is not really working. a sense of euphoria and doubt. bitcoin celebrates the future's debut. janet yellen prepares for her last fed meeting. a height seems just about certain with global inc. -- a hike seems just about certain with global indications.
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