tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg December 17, 2017 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
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♪ >> president trump awaits his first major legislative victory. he says republican tax cuts will help the u.s. economy rock. haidi: optimism about that bill is expected to lift off. asian-pacific markets looking positive at the start of the last week before the christmas holidays. >> bitcoin fans have more reason to cheer as it heads to a bigger wall street stage. fori: a festive boost malcolm turnbull as the government majority is restored.
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welcome to "daybreak asia," i'm haidi lun. kathleen: i'm kathleen hays at bloomberg's global headquarters in new york. we are on the verge of bitcoin futures starting to trade. the cme group in chicago, a much bigger stage then the cboe, were trading started one week ago -- where trading started one week ago. it's a next big step for this bitcoin market, the bitcoin world. haidi: derivative contracts that started trading last week seen a opposed, this is certainly massive milestone in terms of the volumes we are expected to see. volume, ag 55 times bigger stage for bitcoin trading in terms of mainstream and institutional investors. optimism over the tax fall bill, can we get this time -- tax hall
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bill president trump has been wanting. it is driving sentiment in asia ahead of the opens. take a look at how trading in new zealand is faring. we are seeing downside when it x50. to that and we are at a session low, down about 2/10 of 1%. a monumental week last week, trading at 6997, one jump over 2% in about one week. trading in australia it getting underway, what a positive future session. we are looking upside of about 1%.% lost -- .2% of we are also counting down to the korea.n japan and it may be the week before christmas, a huge week when it comes to monetary policy calendar. bank of japan front and center, no change expected there. we are waiting to hear any expectations to that outlook.
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about a quarter of 1%, the nikkei closing by 6/10 of 1%. largely, that was the story about the stronger dollar yen, sitting at 112 handle. kathleen: a second exchange start trading. bitcoin futures, the world's biggest exchange cme flipped the switch on derivatives a moment ago. this is how they started trading. 900 points gain. 19,238 wouldtcoin a gainen the cash level, of 1570 intraday on friday. 20,120, 11%res at gain. , we're looking at it, for .6% gain.
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this is the new -- 4.62% gain. a lot of investors trying to get in front of eric quickly. our china markets reporter joins us. how important is this? skeptics on one hand then the traders on the other. they just want to make money, not waiting for skeptics. 's futures had cboe trading. the cme is the biggest exchange in the world. a lot of people see this as the milestone for the mainstream acceptance of bitcoin. for a lot of traders who may not be able to invest in an unregulated exchange, or who may find interesting in bitcoin far too troublesome. familiar,more regulated, easier way for them to get in on that price action. at the same time, it's a way to go short. a lot of the big banks, the brokers, are not offering
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bitcoin futures yet to their clients. it's not like bitcoin futures are like gold futures. it feels like it is getting there. haidi: in terms of the obviously the volume that we are expecting to see is going to be much larger. how do these futures differ from boe's?trading on c are going totures represent five bitcoins each, were it is one for cboe. there was concern about the fact that cboe's futures were price of of the gemini exchange. the cme is going to be priced before. it -- they're are also going to have this volatility ball which will be for investors worrying how wild the price swings in bitcoin have been. haidi: another step towards more mainstream legitimacy.
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our marketsr that, reporter in hong kong. let's get you caught up with the first word news with ramy. china is looking for stronger financial links with the u.k. after it finalizes brexit. trade talks in beijing ended with more than $33 billion worth of support for u.k. businesses taking part in china's belt and road initiative. other improvements included speeding up the shanghai stock each countryh lets trade shares on each other's exchange. malcolm turnbull has greedy -- regain his majority. joe and a sender -- john alexander one a vote. if that were replicated in a general election, his coalition would be defeated. a poll in december for the
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government trailing the labour party by six points. the presidential candidate of the african congress has been delayed for a second time, with almost 10% of party delegates being included. there are now only two people left in the race. deputy president and jacob zuma's ex-wife. the better campaign has divided the anc, which has been in power since white majority rule ended in 1994. --outh korean born cindy mad sydney man has been arrested for being an agent for north korea. he is accused of attempting to broker millions of dollars of sales for components that could be used in ballistic missiles. he allegedly used encrypted communications to get the supply in contravention of both australian law and united nations sanctions. global news 24 hours a day powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ramy inocencio, this is bloomberg.
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republican leaders expect congress to pass a tax legislation this week, something president trump says will give the economy a boost. are there any final glitches that we may be expecting? or is president trump -- it sounds like he thinks he will get his christmas present. >> i think he thinks he is getting his christmas present, and his is up -- in his opinion, the american public is. merry christmas here in washington. republican leaders on the tax front were very confident today. kevin brady said he doesn't think the legislation is going snagged uped up -- enrolled, on funding. we don't know exactly which day, possibly tuesday for the senate and wednesday for the house.
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that's somewhat still up in the air. it does look like it is definitely a go. haidi: he's also in a busy week ahead of christmas. he is making a speech about national security. what is he expected to address? >> his national security speech could be interesting. it seems like the indications will be a restatement, or return first muscular, america rhetoric from the campaign trail that was so successful to him. he spent much of the year cozying up to china's president, and what a great guy he is. now it seems like he may come out with harsher rhetoric on china, similar to what he used to say on the campaign trail. bit on achin wouldn't reporte that trump will talk about economic aggression.
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he basically said we are in economic competition with china, he wouldn't talk about the possibility of terrorists. those are some of the -- tarriffs, those are some of the topics we could be expected to afternoon.w kathleen: new falling's show many americans want democrats back in control of congress as we head towards 2018. bigtax bill, the interesting story coming out of the alabama election. roy moore was be in by democrat doug jones. they got a lot of black turnout, that is seen as what largely pushed doug jones ahead in the race. is that an element in this pllinolling we're seeing now? >> i don't think it directly covered that issue, but it speaks to the fact that
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americans like to see divided government, because they think ones a check in balance on party running roughshod over the rules and regulations and laws. with president trump in the white house, at least for the next three years, a large proportion of americans would like to see democrats in control of congress. the largest portion in that poll link since -- that polling since 2008. midterm elections are a referendum on the sitting president. typically, the party in power doesn't lose seat. that certainly would not be a surprise he republicans lose seat in the house and the senate this november. could they actually lose control over both chambers? that extremely interesting. kathleen: a lot of it may have to do with how the republican's tax plan plays out as well.
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thank you for joining us. president trump says the economy is going to rock under the impact of this tax cut. her to explain why it will boost growth and what it means for the federal reserve is a baron berg chief u.s. asia economist. plan.start with the tax you just wrote a piece where you say it will definitely boost growth. you say there will be more investment. tax cuts for individuals put more money in people's pockets. some people say it will create a bigger deficit, why don't you agree? >> it will increase deficit spending in the near term. think about it as some true corporate tax reforms that encourage businesses to invest more, increases profits. some of that will lead to business expansion, more employment, more wages.
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then think about the deficit spending part of it, which will put more money into people's pockets. itreased domestic spending, will increase production. use,'t care what model you it points to stronger growth. the biggest question is will the growth be sustained? boostckage will sustainable growth moderately. kathleen: it's one of the most simple questions we have been asking anybody. if corporations are rolling in cash, many of them are, they are not holding back on investments because they don't have the wherewithal. maybe they don't need to. many executives for big companies, even coca-cola said we are looking for to the tax cuts, we can buy back stock and boosted dividend. that will not boost investments, that doesn't need -- that
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doesn't mean more wages. were does it come from? >> the national federation of independent businesses, about two thirds in the latest survey said they will increase capital spending as a consequence of the tax reform package. just about half said in response to the tax reform, it will add jobs. let's see what happens. the key point is that there is already significant momentum in the economy. a consumer, but business confidence is high. reflecting some of the the regulations that are taking place. let's see what happens. it will boost real growth. once it happens, nobody will know how much of it is sustainable. haidi: the verdict is out when it comes to longevity of this
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growth boost. most people are saying there will be a short-term boost. this came out of a point that jpmorgan made last week in it saying that if you assume the post is largely going to be most impact of when it comes to financial markets, this is a comparison of wages growth versus stocks growth in 2009. it is saying economic overheating may not be a problem, but financial overheating, maybe we are getting close to a bubble, is underway. from that aspect is this something regulators and the fed would have to worry about? >> i don't think we are in a overheating situation. you have very strong momentum in corporate profits and expectations of sustained economic expansion. i don't think we are in an overheating situation. -- the problem the fed runs into is it is easier with the funds rate at about
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zero, and excessively large balance sheet. that is absolutely inconsistent with an economy that is now growing faster than potential. it is expected to pick up steam. it will be a very interesting situation here. nine years into economic expansion, don't think of this will as fiscal stimulus. there are true, positive reform provisions in their like moving the u.s. corporate tax corporations towards a territorial type of system. provisions that will increase after-tax profits and increased expected rates of return on investment. people will respond to this, and businesses will respond. it is a positive in the long run. it will increase potential growth moderately.
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with regard to the fed, the fed is saint this will have a temporary -- the fed is saying this will have a temporary impact on economy, but it will slide down. i think they will be flat-footed. haidi: mickey, much more to talk about. the tax plan headlines this is front and center for the edition of "daybreak." bloomberg subscribers get your week started, it's also available on the mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. this is bloomberg. ♪
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will have an impact on the economy. mistaken, you not say your growth forecast is now closer to 3%, it is now considerably higher for gdp next year than the fed's. if you listen to janet yellen's last press conference, they have held back. we are going to wait and see what happens. now we know what is going to happen. are we going to start hearing different comments? change of views from fed officials if and when we see the tax cuts go into effect? >> i don't think we will hear comments from the fed right away. the fed did increase its 2018 forecast from about 2.1%-two .5%. they had a falling back back to 2.1%, which they concede it is temporary. it will have clear
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impact lifting sustainable growth. the fed is data dependent. when we start to see the stronger economic growth. keep in mind, this tax reform package comes on top of an economy that has momentum with significant, very high levels of confidence. when the fed does start seeing the data, they will respond. kathleen: there will be a new face in the fed? it is quickly changing, there could be more appointments. jay powell is the new chair, market good friend is an economist. jay powellple like and marvin good front reacting to this? i think a lot of people on the board are going to treat his views on respect. -- chair chair elect elect powell is pragmatic.
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he is in touch with a lot of businesses. the data, whether you look at a consumer or business confidence, durable goods orders, capital spending, everything is percolating. a key point i would make is the reducingard some burdens from regulations is lifting confidence in the business sector. when we think about these key provisions that reduce the tax on new investment that is expensing. move towards territorial. a lot of changes here. the real wildcard is what are u.s. businesses going to do with the several trillion dollars of capital that is repatriated? even if they use it to buy back shares or increased dividend, that infuses money into the economy. haidi: before we go, it has been
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a year were inflation hasn't played out as expected. the bond market has been done what expected. you have more analysts seemed treasury yields getting flatter maybe even inverting,. does this tell you something terrible lurks around the corner? or do you think it is a phenomenon coming out of extraordinary monetary policy? >> i think it is the latter, coming out of monetary policy. not just the fed, but the ebc, the doj, the bank of england, they have excessively easy policy. central banks are holding tens of trillions of sovereign debt in their own portfolios. this is keeping bond yields very low. i think bond yields are too low. i think in 2018, we will start to see a pickup in wages. that will be a heads-up for the markets, you will see bond yields go up. the fact that inflation has come down in 2017, the factors that
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brought down are positive for the economy. i think it will drift back up, but it is not a concern. nor is the flatness of the yield curve. chief asia and u.s. economist, thank you for coming up. plenty ahead on bloomberg television. leland miller joins us with a look ahead with china's economy and what to expect out of the central economic work conference kicking off this week. kathleen: later in "bloomberg markets" don't miss our exclusive interview with hong kong exchange's ceo charles lee. this is bloomberg. ♪
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headlines. entering the physical retail for the first time, buying a stake in the supermarket change for $640 million. boosting adoption of its digital paceman -- payment service. it follows alibaba to spend $2.9 million in china's are retold last week. bidder for majorities inside saigon fields. vietnamese for the transaction. international brewers have been lowered to the the enemies market, which has jumped 300% in the last years. the big one has jumped more than 50%. first car launched three years after being banned it has a range of 500 kilometers, sells for about $60,000. teslas model x carries a price of $126,000.
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♪ haidi: it is 10:30 a.m. in sydney at the start of the last trading week. we are 30 minutes away from the open of asia's first major market. kathleen: 6:30 p.m. sunday in new york, where markets ended the week higher. the passage of the republican tax cut plan pushed the s&p 500 10%.% of i'm kathleen hays in new york. haidi: i'm haidi lun in sydney. you are watching daybreak asia. let's get you up to date with the first word news. ramy: president trump says he expects u.s. economy "to rock."
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when congress passes the republican tax plan votes are planned this week, with the first major legislative victory expected. it was voted behind closed doors by republican leaders. it would slash the corporate tax rate to 21% and across-the-board tax cuts for individuals, but the race them by 2026. vladimir putin called the white house for the second time in four days to think the cia for a tough up that led to the breakup of a suspected militant cell. a group targeted -- it was planning a series of explosions across st. petersburg. the security service says seven people have been arrested, all-time to be followers of islamic state. ronald gandhi is the latest member of india's most political party -- most famous political party.
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his mother described him as a new hope for congress. he has vowed to obliterate congress with the help of hindu nationalist forces. spacex has completed its second supply trip to the international space station. two years after its first. the dragon camusso. was launched from cape canaveral -- the dragon capsule was launched from cape canaveral. it is the first time they have used a recycled rocket to carry a recycled capsule. they are trying to drive down launch cost by reusing as much equipment as it can. global news 24 hours a day powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ramy inocencio. this is bloomberg. haidi: we are counting down to the market open. back on markets for us. it is a busy week, even though we are getting pretty close to christmas. >> we have eight days to go before christmas, that doesn't
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mean we are light on the agenda. n, thosesee by the gree hopes around the tax bill passage by midweek. bitcoin on the radio as cme jumps into it. pulling up the board to check l.tures in tokyo and seou with investors gauging risk on mood. we are counting down to november trade figures for japan. it is expected to pick up higher for november on higher commodity prices. politics are also not far from mind. bloomberg, we have south africa in sites. voting began for its new leadership, sending it to a three month high -- the rand to a three-month high in the air. we have chilean politics on the radar today, as well.
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kathleen: let's turn our attention to australia ahead of the midyear economic fishbowl outlook. what's moving markets in sydney? >> taking a look at what's moving the dow, kicking off the more optimistic mood this monday. when it comes to industry groups, we have materials and discretionary shares leading the gains. keep in mind financials. we have anz, given its share buyback. they are gaining ground, more positive among the base metals and precious metals. they capped their first weekly rise since some time ago because of what we are seeing on friday. picking out what's happening with verizon, it is a real flight company. the most since february 2016 after ejecting the competition authorities draft decision on its maximum allowable revenue. i pulled up some other stocks to keep an eye on.
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samsung, on its plans to reveal its latest flagship phone in february. asahi.se beer makers busy monday morning here. kathleen: thank you so much. the week ahead on wall street is full of economic reports and a lot of earnings despite the countdown to the holidays. where we question, closed on friday and what it sets us up for monday morning when they open >> it poses incredible records across the board, a lot having to do with optimism. let's take a look at those posing numbers. the nasdaq, the dow, the s&p 500 closing at highs. we had the dollar strengthening gold.h oil and starting to look like a tax cut uncertainty after investors have been on edge for so long.
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for the end of the year, a lot of investors had to figure out where to make adjustments with the new tax code coming into effect. volume was 74% above average on friday. you may see more of that coming this week. let's look at some of the big movers on friday. some will follow overthrew monday. humana not moving quite so big, but we had news over the weekend. there is a deal in the works, talks to acquire kindred healthcare. it would value the operator at $4 billion, including debt. disney in the spotlight because they blasted off with their latest star wars movie. -- a $20 million opening $220 million opening. tebow had a huge rally when they announced a 20% layoff. -- teva had a huge rally when they announced a 20% layoff. that will be in focus as we trade on monday in the u.s..
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let's go into the bloomberg, leverage shorts, what it is is a growing number of investors are taking positions on an etf that bets against the s&p 500. we have had 60 record closes on the s&p 500. that's increasingly using these options that bets against the s&p 500. it's called the pro shares ultrashort s&p 500. go to asee these calls deep, that is interesting. some would say it's the position of hedge. some say it's an occurring sign. those who have been invested have lost about 40 plus percent a year. that could turn around. we have a large number of almostns surging to a record volume since 2015. very interesting to know. it's a jampacked economic
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calendar, just in the u.s. alone. durable goods, what are we expecting? >> a lot of positives for the economy, in terms of these numbers coming out. for u.s.spending factories for the big-ticket durable girds problem -- goods probably increase. the 30 household and business demand helping drive the u.s. economy. we are going to get sales previously, that probably edge tired. that is also considered a strong sign of economy. let's go into the earnings report. we have a chart for a number of companies. nike, fedex, carmax, in the pressure rent a car business. all of theseyond, like the to grab some headlines -- likely to grab some headlines. if we go into the bloomberg,
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weekly changes in u.s. stocks got the s&p 500, dow, and nasdaq reaching record highs. we reached the size going into ighs, goingthese h into details of a tax plan. the boat is coming up. will this rally hold or will it come apart? very interesting as we go into this final week. that, thank you so much, sue. has regainedull his majority opportunity after john alexander took the election. jason scott joins us, give us some background. about? this come it was one of the big things for the government this year. been dragging on since
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july. when the daul nationality crisis came out. the australian constitution requires all parliamentarians cannot be holding dual nationality or citizenship of another country. quite a few lawmakers here didn't do their homework before entering parliament. since july, they have been called out, including two lower house members of his government. that's including deputy prime minister barnaby joyce and john alexander. they are important for turmoil for him, because they had a majority. when they both lost their states because of the hard court ruling
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that they couldn't stay in parliament because they breached constitutional laws and did special elections. to return to parliament. on saturday, john alexander also won and will return to parliament. m.s victory was quite sli it does release a little bit of pressure on john campbell -- turnbull. haidi: a little bit of pressure has been taking off -- taken off in terms of the government. >> it has been a long year for the government. turnbull has been a bashful this year, he has struggled to get his policy agenda through parliament. there has been a lot of pressure from his own lawmakers, who have been worried about poor opinion polls.
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at the same time he has had a few wins, particularly the latter half of the year. he has taken action, so he claims, to reduce higher energy costs that have been worrying consumers. he also got the same-sex legislation through, which he claims is a victory for his parliament. realistically, with a poor opinion -- with poor opinion poll showing he is still on the nose of a voterss, if the remains. kathleen: let's talk about them releasing their midyear economic outlook today. we are looking at the budget. what are we going to see the? is a turnbull government going to show success? >> i think so. --has already giving us given us a sneak preview saying the forecast going forward for four years will be reviewed --
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reduced when the announcement is made. there's obviously some green shoots in the economy that the government is keen to promote. i think it is looking today, midyear economic and fiscal outlook documents really reset its agenda and puts minds back on the economic credentials. there's still concern about stagnant wages, which is dampening retail spending sentiment. kathleen: those wages seem to become a developed world phenomenon. we thank you so much for joining us, our australian government reporter joining us. u.s. dollar strengthens on tax hopes. we look at the global foreign-exchange output with cba's allies the dot. a lot to talk about. -- elias haddad on.
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♪ kathleen: we're counting down to asia's first major market opening this morning. poised toe futures gain about 1% at the open. --kei futures at 20,000 22,740. the tax cut in the u.s. boosting u.s. stocks to record. not surprising caring in some of the asia trades. the novemberg for trade data from japan. boosts byasting capital shipment imports, boasting more on rising commodity prices. we could see a winding of the trade deficit -- a dropping of the trade surplus. i'm kathleen hays in new york. haidi: i'm haidi lun in sydney.
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it is a jampacked week going into the christmas break. considering that survey when it comes to expectations. let's not forget the big event, the bank of japan meeting. someal banks handing out of the key monetary policy decisions this week. heading back to the u.s., this will be the key theme, tax overhaul legislation boosting the dollar. the passage seems all but assured. that christmas present president trump has been hoping for maybe under that tree. our next guest thinks it's upside will be limited. you guys had -- elias haddad, great to have you. it goes to this kind of what a year had this been for the u.s. dollar. we are looking at the biggest yearly decline in over a decade. boost. this short-term
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it will be another your downside when it comes to usd? that u.s. drag is inflation remains behind. it will continue to weigh on u.s. long-term expectations and continue to curtail u.s. dollars. this week on friday, we receive the irrelevant code pce inflator. just infrom it, that's from the one released last week, soft u.s. wage growth. it looks like it remained well below 2% inflation targets. it has been below 2% since mid-2012. it will unlikely shift significantly high anytime soon. , whichest projection also includes the progrowth impact of u.s. tax policy. progrowth u.s. fiscal policy, it still projects core pce to get to 2% in 2019. there's still no inflation pressures in the u.s. to really
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force the fed to lift interest rates more aggressively than what is currently anticipated by the markets. haidi: you don't see the tax package being meaningfully inflationary? >> that's the main message from the fmc, their forecast accounts for the more progrowth u.s. fiscal policy. that, u.s. economic growth will list, largely supported by the progrowth tax measures. inflation will remain subdued to toll struggle to get percent. janet yellen during her press conference warned it could take longer periods of strong job growth to get inflation back to 2%. wet's why we remain, continue to expect downsides for the u.s. dollar going into 2018. kathleen: what you are saying
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makes sense in many ways, but the fed is still not entirely certain how the republic and tax plan would look. how quickly it would get past. you can look at models, economic analysis would tell you about how they will boost inflation. it seems to me the risk to your forecast and your outlook for the dollar is that we would have , we have had to guests say it will be a growth booster. and we had another one say it will mean more growth, more investment, and there will be inflation next year. it seems to me or dollar bet is going to prove wrong. elias: that's certainly a risk. you look at the joint committee of taxation's, their projections for the lift off in u.s. growth. this tax package probably won't get past this week. it will adde
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roughly 1.7% to gdp over the next 10 years. it is good. the inflation impact is uncertain. smc'sg from the projection and the fact that you still have the structural forces weighing on inflation. it's a big worry for a lot of f1 see members. the risk is that u.s. inflation doesn't reach the 2% inflation target by 2019. that's one of the reasons why we are still bearish on the dollar. another reason is global growth is also improving, its becoming more broad-based. it's one of the more broad-based global economic expansion we have had since 2018. that will bode well for the commodity sense of currencies, like australian dollar, new zealand dollar, canadian dollar. haidi: i'm going to break these numbers coming through. the trade balance coming in at
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$113 billion. an in a trade surplus different picture. narrowing the ¥285 billion we had in the previous month. export imports are interesting. exports are coming in another strong month. of 14.7%xpectations and picking up from october imports. we were looking for a growth of 18% for the month of november. energy prices, energy imports are a huge part of that when it comes to japan. the bank of japan inflationary expectations. in five years time, they see inflation year and year of one point percent. we are nowhere near that two-point protest 2% inflation target. elias: we are only at .2%. the bank of japan's favor measure of inflation, it doesn't
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look like we will reach that anytime soon. the risk for the bank of japan is for more aggressive monetary easing. is widelyf japan expected to make no monetary policy changes. as you pointed out, virtually no inflation in japan means the risk is former policy. haidi: we talked about weakness projected to the u.s. dollar. we are looking at a stronger your for the euro. where does that leave the yen? elias: it will continue to be driven by two factors. the trend in the u.s. dollar will continue to favor a lower dollar-yen. also japan's balance, they have a fairly excitable current account surplus. the trade number we received today essentially confirms, or will continue to reinforce the case for japan to maintain this large of that surplus. this creates underlined --
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underlying for the currency which will continue to support the, yen. haidi: have a great holiday, thank you for coming on eli said -- elias haddad. get in-depth analysis on bloomberg radio. continued -- bloomberg asia from 7 a.m. in hong kong. you can download the bloomberg radio plus ap orp bloomberg.com website. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ haidi: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. oracle is set to buy the comics in a deal worth 1.6 billion all the dollars, the equivalent of $1.2 billion u.s. it specializes in managing construction process using the cloud. the board has recommended the deal, it is subject to an independent report.
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kathleen: long delays expected at atlanta airport after a major power outage. tower cant says the operate normally, but other equipment isn't working. inbound flights are being directed elsewhere, delta says it expects widespread destruction for the foreseeable future. haidi: the force remains strong with the latest star wars movie. it enjoyed a $220 million opening weekend in north america, meeting by expectations of fans and hollywood. results but the latest installment well ahead of last years spin off, that took in $158 million in its first week. it also opens in china . kathleen: coming up on the next hour of "daybreak asia." richard's xanga joins us with a look at the week ahead on the economics. front. china -- leland miller will give his view on china. what to expect from the central economic were conference.
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♪ >> asia-pacific markets start the penultimate week of 2017, feeling optimistic. >> president trump anticipates his first legislative victory. he says the republican tax cuts will help the u.s. economy in 2018. >> bitcoin fans rocking on as the cryptocurrency heads to a bigger wall street stage. a billionaire winner in
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, in the of sluggish growth. i am kathleen hays in new york. >> i am haidi lun in sydney. we have a lot on the agenda. and the deflator reading will give us a good indication of 2018. japanese trade numbers, a buoyant picture when it comes to that export engine. we're getting this ahead of boj decision and decisions from thailand and taiwan and its economic conference in china, so end to the week. >> we are here. the markets will open. bitcoin futures trading starting on the big chicago exchange, the
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cme group. watching the tax plan, the votes in congress, not that they will pass, but the back-and-forth and the polling showing more americans want to see democrats in control of the house of representatives. let's get to first word news with remy innocence he or. -- remy inocencio. >> john alexander won an election in sydney, but there was a 5% swing against that wouldcoalition see it defeated if replicated in the general election. a poll shows the government trailing the labour party by six points. expects the u.s. economy to "rock" when the .epublicans passed the tax cuts
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the president hoping for his first major legislative victory. the bill was agreed b behind give tax cuts,l but a raise them by 2026. boris johnson has stepped back into the brexit debate, telling the sunday times he wants a deal to give the government the power to reject eu laws. do sod the failure to would render the country a vassal state. , the chief euide negotiators says brussels has no intention of offering it a more favorable deal. deeperooking for financial links post-brexit with britain announcing $33 billion worth of support for u.k. businesses taking a part and china's belt and road initiative.
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the shanghai stock connect allows investors in each country to trade shares on the others exchange. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. fori: thank you so much that. going into the open of asian markets on this last trading day of the week we will get disruption and closures going into the holidays, and of course we are expecting volumes to start tapering off. we saw that towards the end of last week. let's get it over to sophie. lot for investors still on their trading desks to contend with this week. sophie: there is plenty to look out for. , november trade nikkei out of japan, the 22 five halting a rise in the back of that, gaining .9%, while
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the kospi is marginally lower at the start of this trading day, looking to snap a rise on friday. down .1losing ground, percent as the trade surplus narrowed from october. we have that recovery and export still kicking on. we are seeing pre-christmas and the yen could test 113 given the boj meeting. above 1090 an back dollar, seeing a weekly gain on friday, but perhaps north korea on the radar as trump will divulge his strategy on national security this monday. in australia, midyear and economic fiscal outlook for that country, the asx 200 gaining
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.6%. companye in this trading at an august 2016 high. it is resuming trade amid oracles deal to buy the company for $1.19 billion and volumes on the share jumping 690% on a 20 day moving average there. thank you. let's get on to the bitcoin news. the second exchange has started trading bitcoin futures, cme flipped the switch an hour ago. this is how they have started trading. you can see the ticker bloomberg customers can use to monitor the active contract. we have gains across the board ca and cboea -- bt
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futures. it is interesting to look at the difference between the two contracts. ono, one contract is based five bitcoins per contract as opposed to one for the cboe, and they are getting information from four different exchanges to produce those prices, so do you think that will strengthen the reception of bitcoin futures trading with cme in the game? seeingt of people are this as a milestone for mainstream acceptance of bitcoin. cme is the world's largest exchange. for a lot of traders who may not be allowed to trade on unregulated exchanges or might find buying bitcoin annoying, this is a regulated an easier way to get in on the price go short if you
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want to. a lot of brokers and banks are not offering bitcoin futures to their clients. goldman sachs is demanding 100% margin requirements. it may not be replacing gold futures contracts, but may be a step towards that direction. massivere there differences in terms of these futures and the derivatives we saw debuted last week on cboe? >> these contracts represent five bitcoins each, so you can't compare the volumes apples to apples, and also the cme futures will get their prices from four .ifferent exchanges it is important because the cboe is only based on the gemini exchange, that they will have volatility halts which should be reassuring for people worried about how wild the bitcoin price
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swings have been. haidi: one other thing we are watching is china, but in terms of the bond market, the longer end is starting to climb. what does that tell us? >> the rates are not rising that quickly. the three-month has been going up. this shows people are still worried about liquidity conditions in china. it is true the pboc has been trying to replenish liquidity when needed, but people don't think the deleveraging story is over yet come especially since the economy has held up so much. this means that every day when you have open market operations will step in pboc to help the market or trying to keep money market rates up. haidi: thank you so much for
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that. pesoan markets and the expected to see a boost after billionaire sebastian panera swept to victory in the election and one by a wider margin than expected and is pledging to revert sluggish growth. what this his return mean for the country? policy wise, not much of a change. he will continue the policies of the current government, but he does return confidence to the business community. we have had a crisis of confidence in the last four years. falling.t has been now the business community feel that one of their own is getting back into power and hopefully the good times will come back. what about all the reforms
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-- thate championed by some would consider radical reforms? stays on the path, reverses things question mark and how will investors respond? things? and how will investors respond? >> both candidates moved towards the center ground, so reform, which is high education will be maintained and expanded. many other reforms were not that radical and did not get past in their integrity. the labor reform meant to -- in thee unions constitutional courts, so only half. most of the reforms are safe.
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the big one coming up is the pension reform, actually never managed to get that one done. most of the reforms areit is nol happen with that one now. the other ones are fine. >> pension reforms are tough for a lot of governments. i love the quote you have hear from kenneth bunker saying it has become the biggest margin of victory for a right-wing government in recent history and the difficulty facing a fragmented congress, so again what can we expect? what are investors hoping and waiting to see? can expect to know major change. there will be no massive reform push through this congress. it will not be like the last four years. industry wants a respite after four years of major change for chileans, and these reforms have not been groundbreaking, in or miss, but by chilean standards they have been big and triggered
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a crisis of confidence. they came at the same time as so investment suddenly stopped. now those we can really expect very little in the way of major change now, but you can expect sound economic management. there will be cost-cutting, anyngs, but there won't be major flagship reforms apart from maybe the pension one, which he will find difficult to push through when he has not got a majority in congress. seats.73 of 155 he will have to get independents to go with him. it will not be easy. he wants to strengthen the private system. the protest have been against the private pension system. >> you took the words out of my
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mouth, work cut out for him indeed, that investors will be happy to see stability and where the reforms take them. has swept toera victory. don't miss our exclusive interview with hkex chief executive in bloomberg markets at 9:40 hong kong time, a: 40 eastern. haidi: -- 8:40 eastern. haidi: we are joined in half an hour to look at a key economic conference in beijing and what it means in terms of policy and implications for growth and 25 -- 2018 with cleveland miller. -- leland miller. this is bloomberg. ♪
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business flash headlines. beerole bidder for saigon bev.i international brewers have been attracted to the beer market with the 300% surge in demand. shares have jumped 50% in 2017. haidi: tencent stepping up its challenge to alibaba, entering physical rea retail buying a stake in a supermarket chain for $640 million to boost adoption of its digital payment service and follows alibaba's decision to spend $2.9 billion for a stake in a retail group last month. neo has launched its first car in three years after being founded and undercutting tesla and china. it has a range of 500 kilometers
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and sells for $68,000. tesla's model x carries a price tag of $126,000. money fromy raise investors and backers. get a roundup of the top stories to get your days going -- day going in daybreak. bloomberg subscribers go to dayb on your terminal. it looks like president trump get tax reform push through. it is also available on the .obile and anywhere you can set the settings for news and industry -- on industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
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china holding its annual work conference this week behind closed doors of where policymakers establish priorities and tone for the coming year. risk,r this year, curbing pollution and poverty are the top priorities. how thate a look at materializes into policy with the anz chief economist. we know what the major themes are. the question is implementation. how will it materialize in terms of policies? >> the market will look for a continuation. we have already had this backing away from the growth target, and the target probably has more credibility. when were times gone by everyone wondered how they would reach it, and now the presumption is they will. of question is the margin error and the question around the deleveraging story. the has happened on
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deleveraging has been sector-specific and bringing it out of the shadow banking area into the formalized economy and introducing interbank leverage them about leverage is still pretty high. 4898 shows thert november home prices for china. you see this pronounced slowdown when it comes to the secondary market, free of the distortions from government control on policy. that tightening, is that of spot of potential distress? >> i don't think so. chinauld have expected house prices to slow in the second half of this year and construction to slow down in the first half of next year. that tightening in policy has not been as severe as 2014. at the end of that cycle, we got the growth scare 2015-2016 when
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the renminbi was depreciating. i don't think we will get that this time. you will get slow down, but less worrying than before. kathleen: after this conference moving into 2018 there are a couple of big questions. if the chinese will give xi jinping his second five-year term -- they are deleveraging, right? question mark and also they might come out with a slightly slower growth target consistent with saying we will pull back a bit on credit. time, they have fired up construction and manufacturing and doesn't look like they have made this transition to the services and consumption economy, does it? be fair.d no to the global economy has helped them out. they had targeted leverage in
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certain sectors and net exports have added gdp growth so that has camouflaged a reasonable slowdown in domestic demand. when you think about the domestic demand and the new economy base in china that has done well, the domestic demand story related to the old economy am a growth has slowed already. what is very different from the last five years is the global economy has this mild bias.ionary by us -- what is the worst economy -- outcome with the debt, inflation that pressures corporate profits and makes that recycling and leverage difficult. kathleen: perfect segue to japan when you talk about inflation-deflation, japan has turned the corner on deflation and inflation is rising. this is chart 2387 that shows retail trade.
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far have been higher on the right-hand side the screen along with modest wage growth. the boj will not do anything is the expectation, but do you see the japanese economy continuing to do better? >> i think so. economicain cyclical issue is capacity. , butyment rates are high difficult to see where the new inputs into the production process will come from, that it is not clear japan has headwinds beyond that come in so confidence will continue to grow around the japanese economy. inflation issue in japan is the same as everywhere else. the numbers are different, but despite everything signaling wages and inflation should pick up, they are not. playing a roles in that, but that is the issue
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they will be grappling with and 2018. -- in 2018. interesting, it where do you view this futures contract for bitcoin? it is seen as a step towards mainstream acceptance or institutional credibility or whatever. that will have huge implications. >> we think the liquidity story globally will remain positive until the middle part of next year when the decline in liquidity he comes, starts -- liquidity starts to bite on some of these areas of the market. bitcoin is part of that. what bitcoin is saying is the underlying technology has definite applications. make a meaningful
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difference to large parts of the economy, of bitcoin is reflecting that. desire for as a currency perceived to be suited to the digital regime. people have grabbed on to bitcoin. it is not obvious that that coin is the best. i don't know why you would not gravitate towards a traditional currency as traditional currency transfers come down in cost, and maybe that will be the issue that pops the bitcoin bubble eventually. haidi: that's what central bankers have been saying. is, but itow what it is not a digital payments story anymore. >> i was in pop in new guinea guineawan -- papa new and taiwan and i was asked about that. haidi: pleasure. we will see you then. on an indexne stock
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♪ it is a: 30 in singapore. we are half an hour from the opening of trading. very dollar heavy. looking at a positive open in asia. just getting these nonoil exports coming through. hugely volatile gauge. take that with a grain of salt. not all exports rising. that six pointes 4%. electronics, 5.2 percent rise year on year. that is month on month, in advance of a .7%. -- 8.7%. positive.
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it builds until this synchronized global growth story that has been the theme of 2017. kathleen: we saw the japanese exports earlier. they were looking pretty good. imports still growing. they are seasonably adjusted to grow for that month. everyone is watching exports and watching the global economy. we had a guest is saying it is getting stronger and that should help growth. let's get to the first word news with ramy. japan's exports, the growing for a 12th straight month in november. shipments rose by more than name expected 16%. that is thanks to strong demand. imports rose 17% there. the recovery and exports has fueled record or per products -- profit. confidence among large manufacturers also reached its highest levels in a decade. over to russia, private -- president putin called the white
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house for the second time in fort days, -- four days. the kremlin says that information helped target a group that was planning explosions are crossing see her -- st. petersburg. tenant people have been arrested. all claim to be followers of islamic state. memberdhi is the latest of india's most famous political family to take control of the congress party. he takes range from his mother when the party lost support. he described -- she described her son. he has found to obliterate congress with the help of hindu and nationalist forces. presidentialthe candidate for the african national congress has been delayed a second time with almost 10% of party delegates being excluded. there are now only two people left in the race, that is the deputy president and the ex-wife.
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the campaign has divided the amc which has been in power since white majority rule ended in 1994. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm rainy inocencio. this is bloomberg. asian markets out of the gates strong enough and final week before the christmas holiday. volumes is a different story. let's get it over to our porter with how things are faring in nearly session. >> biomes are light. the mood is looking good. you have japanese shops gaining. little changed. the asx 200 is said to snap a two-day drop. aussie bonds are sliding along with treasuries while the dollar is trending -- treading water. check out crude. we have uti trading above that 57 dollar at barrel mark. -- a barrel.
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i have the latest in exports. they came in slightly higher than forecasted. a little volatile this morning. creeping back toward that $13 mark. undere the anc boating way this monday. i want to take a look at stocks to watch. picking up the door to show you what is going on. jumping the most on record after oracle agreed to buy the company in a cash deal for $1.2 billion. sincen is the most february, 2016. this is after it rejected the draft decision. while flipping to -- hoping the board, you have another company -- we have it falling as a group is considering buying a stake in the tire maker. friday'sxtending
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swamp. it is planning and offering an early 2018 to bolster its operations and pursue more overseas m&a deals. a last look at movers in tokyo you have japanese construction stocks moving amid a newspaper report that four firms will be inspected over the napoli allegations related to the country's project. the four companies could not be reached by bloomberg news. these stocks are under pressure this morning. kathleen: thank you so much. china changes its policy on steel. shares have taken a hit, falling nearly 20%. bloomberg asia metals and reporter david stringer has been tracking this story. david, it seems to me fortescue, it happens. when yourchanges biggest customer changes and you have to scramble to catch up. could they have seen this
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coming, what is going on? right, the world has changed almost around their feet. this is a business that has gone emergingmergent -- startup to shipping tons of ire, to china every year. that is at a lower grade. it is the lower quality than the benchmark. we have seen is china's huge drive to curb pollution and to really address -- address environmental issues. look for seen them higher quality raw materials that allows them to continued producing steel but with less emissions, in addition to that, they are seeking higher quality materials because i want to maximize the amount of steel producing from those mills. profits are high and margins are in a record. there has been a combination. said, most of the
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year they imagine this would be a temporary phenomenon. rivals, andescue's the company themselves see this as likely to be a structural shift. those mills will continue to want higher quality materials. what we have seen is fortescue, which sought 200% in 2016, has now returned to losses this year. it is the only company among the index of australia's largest mining and energy companies to see a loss. quite a dinner -- a dramatic turnaround. what we have heard in the last month from a billionaire, he has acknowledged that the company now needs to look to change its product mix and to better meet those customers demands. kathleen: it is at the top of the list. what are there challenges that the ceo faces? david: that's right. come february, the cfo will take
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over as ceo. this is only one of a whole raft of issues. at the same time that they company is trying to to think that core business, it is also looking to enter into new markets and to its customer base in china. china accounts for 93% of its revenue. it has done a real push to grow market sales. it has also thought about adding new products. at the moment, it is the producer of a single commodity. fortescue is looking at adding copper. it is also even examining potential opportunities outside the mining business. a lot on their entree. this is a lot for the new ceo to grapple with as we start the new year. haidi: quickly, does the deleveraging effort continue? that is another challenge for elizabeth gains. has slashed debt from $10 billion to $2.6 billion.
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the company said yes, absolutely they want to do all of these things and also continue to pay down debt and continue to reward investors. quite a tall order there. haidi: thank you so much, david stringer, are commodities reporter joining us from melbourne. the outlook will clearly he and focus in the government releases its economic outlook over the next hour. economists expect in the report will show it running better than forecast. with high commodity prices and stronger global growth. economic editor joins us for more. the outlook is a little bit brighter. >> it is. you hit the nail on the head. they tend to help out australia. the company profits for it is ae, and obviously bigger tax cut. there has been a real bull run in australia. there has been record employment this year and more people in
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jobs and the more people paying taxes, social security payments to for the first time in a long time, the government looks to be ahead of its targets. thei: particularly in context of what trump is doing with text to get a cut to the corporate tax rate. >> and make sense. obviously things are going fairly well in the economy. most economists suggest that australia needs to remain competitive and cutting the company tax will incentivize business. i think it strengthens his hand a bit. the other thing is trying to do as he is looking at personal tax cuts which would be really useful in australia given everyone is in the deficit. quiter he can do that is uncertain because australia has a structural shortfall in terms of its tax hike, whether you can provide personal tax cuts is a really up in the air. australia's scott morrison has put out a statement
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head of the actual release of the budget, saying that net debt will peak at 19% of gdp. how important is this to the australian voter? are they find with death as long as the economy is growing and things are being done to keep the economy strong and keep them moving ahead? or is this something that has political capital attached? michael: there is political capital attached. australian voters marked the government's hard physically. -- fiscally. i remember someone saying it was a moral problem that australia does not run a budget surplus which is astounding. australian consumers don't mind being in debt, but they expect the government to be paying down debt. in the past decade that things have run off the rails. if they are ahead of the curve for once, there has been a lot of downgrades the past few years, i think they will get
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some marks from voters,. kathleen: phones like a very different situation from what we see in the united states, doesn't it. thank you michael, our economic editor joining us from sydney. onto the financial dialogue wrapping up this weekend with reward for british financial services. standard life aberdeenshire men was a leading figure in the u.k. delegations. speaking exclusively to bloomberg, he explained how china will drive growth for the next decade. just last week, we were given approval to start operating out asset management business in china. we got the foreign enterprise license for that a year ago. we have permission to start business and that business will be manufacturing and selling investment products in china. this is a big first for us. that is potentially an important development. two years ago, they welcomed an
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application for us to get a pensions license and china. this would make is the first foreign company to have a pensions license in china. it is a complex process, and rightly so. complicated by the fact that the the regulator which is a very fine regulator has no chairman at the moment. the organization of these things in china necessarily takes time. >> are you adding headcount next year? >> yes we will. the growth prospects arrived from the fact that chinese portfolios are massively undiversified internationally. the insurance sector has meant insurance companies can and then -- invest in the larger range of assets including overseas assets. as to approach -- the direction of travel is opening a. into asset management china and out of china being one
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of the great growth areas in financial services for the west over the next 10 years. insurance side of the business, have you had discussions with your jb partners? are they willing to give you full control of the business at some point? bills -- businesses in china. and a number of these large emerging markets. i think you are a brave person to do it by yourself. if you get on very well with your partner, as we do with hours, i think people say they are categorized by some of the best relationships with china, do i want to take control of this? it is not necessarily with the -- compatible with the partnership spirit. it is there. it is there for the future if we needed. our strategy does not depend on getting control of that business at some point in the future. >> do you have an appetite for chinese bonds? >> we certainly do.
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it is one of the largest emerging market bond firms. stocka great idea, these programs. i think the chinese will be very cautious at the speed of development. i think we will see a number of a be steps. i think it is going to be some while before you see complete functionality between u.k. or hong kong exchanges in china. that was jerry grandson. the chairman speaking exclusively with our tom mackenzie. we will get more on china and a moment. he says the economy is looking less positive going into next year. assets, quality before quantity. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ haidi: this is "daybreak asia." i'm haidi lun in sydney. hays.en: i'm kathleen leaders meet this week to discuss priorities for next year. risk prevention will likely top the agenda as president xi it is into his second five-year term. -- i want ton remind all of our viewers that you started it in 2010. you have since -- you send a life people out the country to get data on the economy. you have gotten to know this so well. in terms of this meeting, and the years that you have been running this business in china, how important will this meeting be and what are the top couple of things you are looking to orrn over the next few days as the chinese government lets us know what they talked about and decided? >> people are watching this
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meeting more than they have ever watched the conference. i don't think the people knew other than china walks that there was a december economic work conference before this. there are looking very closely because you just had the xi coronation, you had the party congress, the question is, what is next? you have half the people saying china will keep growth and strong. maybe a little slow down but stable. others are saying xi jinping is ready to restructure. it may not be reform but he will strengthen the economy. people are looking closer at this than they have before. that does not mean that we will see anything interesting from it. i think the topics are gdp, what do they do with growth, and debts. which leads us to deleveraging. kathleen: let's get straight on that. you have written recently that china -- and other people have pointed out, they are not leveraging as fast which is not the same as deleveraging. i can throw up a chart, g #btv
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1009, which is a turquoise line showing china all system financing aggregate, and gdp growth. yes, they have eased a bit. i have to bring this up so everyone can see it, and not just me. here we go. here is the chart. -- you don't think they are moving in that direction at all. or you don't think they want to? you think 2018 is the year? leland: we are not sure about that. the major problem is people don't know what the leveraging. thet now, we are seeing central government move certain rates up. the benchmark interest rate. it does not mean anything. but they are inching it appeared we are seeing a crackdown of financial sectors. you talk about negotiable certificates. the are cracking down on shadow instruments. i think a lot of people see that and say, there must be deleveraging because there is a crackdown.
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deleveraging counts when it affects corporate behavior. corporate borrowing has not budged this year. it ramped up from 2016 to 2017. there is no deleveraging going on. it is going to happen in 2018, you have to be the optimist. what is xi jinping going to do? is he going to allow the economy to feel it right away? this is not an easy question to answer. is always question that pain threshold and how that balances out with the necessity for stability. the other thing is i read an editorial saying once the government comes out with its economic policies, local governments will follow the lead. it said, all of these problems when it comes to the structural problems that china faces will be fixed. we know that will probably not be the case. is a lot of the pain going to come through the local governments in adhering to any policies that get rolled out at the beijing level? some point, they are
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going to push back. if xi jinping decides he is going to have 1, 2, three priorities in 2018, it is likely these things look at the beginning. local governments hire people. local governments keep cities going. the idea they will take pain, take pain, take pain and aging will sit back and not feel the reverberations, that is not true. that is why things don't get done in prop -- in china. there is a lot of promising. it never happens. you have the potential for seeing more movement than you ever have. the reality is this is the same question i have dealt with for years. it is how much pain are they willing to take? don't see also tensions going away. that will continue to be a risk for next year. leland: it is not just a risk, it will be the risk. you have problems with the chinese economy, in terms of can
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it keep up the momentum people expect in 2016, 2017? beautifulrisk is this u.s.-china friendship that has developed unexpectedly starts to dissipate. you have had no geopolitical tensions over the south china sea. you have had no trade actions from the president. as we start 2018, you will see these. the question the white house is dealing with is how hard we go after china? and what do we do when they respond? haidi: always a pleasure. we will have to leave it there. president of the china's beige book. the conference kicking off this week. you can always sign in depth and today's big news maker. tune into daybreak asia semi-a.m. hong kong time. you can download the app or get to it by bloombergradio.com. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ check of thek latest business flash headlines. oracle is to buy australia -- -- 1.2 billing.6 u.s. dollars. they will take 100% which specializes in managing construction projects using the cloud. the board unanimous miss -- unanimously to commended the deal. it is subject to a report. long delays are
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expected atlanta airport after a major power outage hit operations. otherwer can operate, but equipment can't operate. delta says it is -- it expects restructuring for the foreseeable future. haidi: that is about it from us on "daybreak asia." it is time for a look over what will come up the next few hours. what is on your radar? >> we have got the chief executive of the exchange, talking about the possibility of having a geo clash share institute. "rhaps that being applied to in the company." are they still in the running for that much wanted or desired remco idea out of saudi arabia? looking at that. at the indices in china
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as well. going to have a look at that with g low. we have the chairman, alex lehman. looking as to what is going on with the retails in hong kong, looking to what is happening with the gambling hub and how -- and gaming traffic is this coming back after recent falls. are these property measures actually working in engineering a soft landing for that part of the market? kathleen: that is it from "daybreak asia." stand by for bloomberg markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ is this a phone?
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♪ rishaad: markets kicking off the penultimate trading week. awaiting the verdict on tax cuts. president trump looking forward to his first major victory. he said the republican bill will help america rock. ensuring the next alibaba does not slip through his fingers, we speak to charles li. this is "bloomberg markets: asia." ♪ rishaad:
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