roll, and commodities extend their record run. plus, chipped in security. the biggest chip software companies are coming to grips with a big chip buzz that puts all phones and computers at risk of hacking, and the eastern united states braces were hurricane force winds and massive cold. power prices are surging. >> welcome to bloomberg: daybreak. i'm david westin with alix steel. the question is can we get home? alix: i live in brooklyn. you have to start walking 11:00.round a global rally underway. s&p futures up by four points, but the last two days have been the first time the s&p has gained in the start of the year how0 years, 2700 is now

we are printing, following higher euro markets as well. you have killer pmi data coming out across the board. services are stronger in europe. that leads to a selloff in all the major developed markets, , and courtonds developed bonds in europe as well. the curve is moderately steeper, and crude, only 4/10 of 1%, but almost $52 a barrel. what does that mean for production? david: the saudis do not mind. alix: and at the top of global growth is copper, up 1.3%, at $7,200 a ton, a big move for copper. we will discuss that global growth story. david: let's find out what is going on outside of the business world with emma chandra. scott: it has -- emma: it has been a dramatic split between president trump and one of the former

architects of his campaign. he says steve bannon has "lost bannond," after insulted his family in his book. congressional leaders have signaled progress on a budget agreement needed to avert a government shutdown this month. there is no deal yet. among the deals being discussed, living budget -- lifting budget limit on --. and theresa may believes michel barnier a is bluffing. she does not believe the eu's chief negotiator when he says there will be no special deal forexit settling. this wiki banks operating freely across the eu. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm emma chandra, this is bloomberg. alex? alix: it is time for our

daybreak first take, where we discuss the top three stories of the morning. first is this monster global equities rally that we have been seeing, all of this synchronized global growth moving out of different fronts. and the chip problems at intel, what do you need to do to secure your phone? and we know it is called, but what about flight cancellations, train issues, and commodity prices? joining us now are carey price and lisa abramowicz. we will start with the global growth rally, but to me the highlight was hungry, selling , sellingebt -- hungary 10-year debt under 2%. it shows the risk on feel that we are seeing. crystallizes the whole story. i love that you brought it up, but i was interested in the fact that manufacturing was the best and the fastest growth that we saw in the u.s. since 2004 last year.

this was interesting because it is pressuring capacity. it reaches a point where factories cannot produce enough ands based on the demand keep prices where they are. they either have to increase -- they havelation to boost production, which means hiring more people and that means the shortage of hired -- skilled workers that they want to pay, so does this mean we will lead to wage growth? this is the key question for me coming into 2018. carey: i think lisa may overstate the capacity issue a little. capacity data in the u.s. is still relatively low by the swathess of long of history. exactot member what the

-- lisa: 81. carey: it must have been release when i was on vacation. ok, so it is moving in that direction, i will concede. lisa: or grudgingly. -- begrudgingly. [laughter] carey: that's what the data is. but on a global basis, there is still, i think, some degree of disparate capacity. but the needle is clearly pointing up. if you look at the j.p. morgan global manufacturing pmi, we are at the highest level in about ixia years. -- six years. so that is unmitigated good news in that regard. david: any indications of concern at all? since you brought up hungary, i will bring up indonesia, because they said take a look at the and theyn indonesia,

have been struggling in the new year. lisa: that is a bit of a reach. if you look at the biggest emerging markets on etf's, the trades under emb saw the biggest one-day inflow earlier this week in six months, so people starting the year pouring money into emerging markets. -- first oftions all, china, how they will navigate this year, which could be a problem if there is a construction. that has been one of the main drivers. number two, if there is faster inflation in the u.s. and the fed it does raise rates four times, we might keep the pressure at e.m.. david: let's talk about chip insecurity. we mentioned intel and nvidia -- you can see the moves here, and the reports are that intel has a problem, the others don't. but this is a hardware problem, lisa. gf i do not do the phishin

thing and open the wrong nowchment, we are vulnerable. lisa: intel has an 85% monopoly on chips and computers. this is a massive supplier of chips for computers people have in their home. so there is a question of is this going to dent their business? unclear. credit slowdown people's operating systems as they put this patch over it? .es and there is a possibility that they will get you those hackers, no matter how you have protected yourself. thinkn: i still "password123" is the problem and not delving into the innards of your hardware. you cannot rule anything out, but going through the software route is the easier way in the

future. alix: but what i rather have a ,lower phone and fix the issue and potentially hackers cannot get into my phone, or do i want hackers getting into my phone? i do not know what the answer is to that, because can you imagine a world where your phone is slow and you cannot get to google in to second? think it raises a lot of questions about the fact that one company has a 95% monopoly on the chip is nice, and they sensitive and hard to manufacture. that is why apple and microsoft do not manufacture these themselves. i think the third is there will be vulnerabilities everywhere, and at what point do you just not put your information that is sensitive in these formats? avoid the issue altogether. the north koreans are probably looking at your phone. the third story now is that storm.

it is taking a little longer to get here than we thought. here is a live look at what is going on. right now --in that is not a good job. alix: i would not like that job. david: it will hit us particularly hard. we have some indications of the level of disruption, something like 3005 canceled -- 3000 flights canceled on the east coast. how is it affecting the economy? lisa: it is affecting my life, canceled last was night. i think this is a make it or break it for the natural gas market right now, because demand is surging to all-time highs. if this is not enough to juice the price of natural gas, what will? the cash price of natural gas some say is six dollars. the futures price is at three dollars. cameron, what he or think? in terms of economic growth and activity, there is a relationship between snow, cold

weather, and people missing work. will it impact the data as we see it reported for january? maybe, maybe not. rathervey is next week, than this week. the first survey of the year is fairly slow as people take off the holidays and slink back into work. comparing to this, the average monthly temperature withw york and pittsburgh forbls data four days -- workers to have missed work due to bad weather. there is a good correlation of -.5. so what is that translate to into economic growth? the relationship is much, much weaker. the average temperature has a -.1, or .1 of

correlation with that government growth. i would say the coldest first quarter in my data set was i guess three years ago now that we have turned, 2015, which the big polar vortex where we were all huddled in our focus for fur coats, and that was the strongest growth since 2006. so you cannot say because it is cold and miserable, we are at a 45 degree angle leading into the snow today means we will slow economic growth. david: i love those retailers report -- i want to those retailer reports so we can see how well they have done. thank you so much to lisa crease.icz and cameron increas up next, the biggest software makers are coming to terms with

a big chip bug. this is bloomberg. is is bloomberg.

♪ we are risk on rally seeing today, it started in asia and has moved to europe and now in the u.s.. european stocks looking at their best day, rallying the most in about two weeks. energy, materials, and industrial leading the way higher there. the euro-dollar is rising, up 4/10 of 1%, but all it economic activity in the eurozone. fed dollar boost from the it did not last that long. and peripherals are big in europe, but everything else is off. yields down by two basis points in the u.s. and crude up why $61 a barrel.

of a 14 a record run day rally -- talk about your global growth story. omarosa joining us from jpmorgan. what do you make of the rally in the last two days of trading? think the optimistic note that we finished the year absolutely carrying lowered at 2018. because we had a very strong performance here and growth year in 2017 does not mean it needs to end their this rally continues -- and there., to broadencontinues out, and industrials and metals catch our eyes as well. david: as you talk to investors, what are they see that is making them so optimistic? growth, andlobal the level of optimism and the desire to be in the markets and

do something and participate in this rally is probably the greatest we have seen in many years. we are entering this year with an particular. i think clients are looking for opportunities to put money to work, and what we are deciding is that global growth is there to support it. alix: don't you need inflation to black that up -- back that up? lisa: the goldilocks scenario -- anastasia: the goldilocks scenario is that you have these policies but not this great inflation. because of that takes up too much, we will be concerned about the fed andause other central banks might begin to tighten policy. inflation is it rises from these low levels could be important for commodities. out --see that play industrial metals finished last year on a very strong note, and we are headed into this year to capitalize on this global growth story in the incremental uptick

inflation. alix: david made fun of me earlier for the hungary debt. spain had some great things earlier, but the appetite for risk -- we had slovenia, the demand for their bonds was quite high as well. where is the risk in playing the rally? where is the opportunity? the opportunity, to us, remains in some of the higher-yielding emerging-market currencies and debt. we are looking at the local debt of argentina, brazil, russia, and a few other countries. tot is a risk to -- the risk all of this is the material slowdown in china. if you think about everything we are talking about today, it is really cute to one factor, the risk on actor that is geared to global growth. which china slows down,

is not our base case, that is a risk to all of this. david: we hear about synchronized growth, which means they are happening at the same time, not at the same rate. the united states, europe, and china versus growth rates, china as it a different place -- is that a different place in the cycle then europe is. anastasia: europe is the place we are seeing the greatest growth delta. if you look at pmis in europe, they are about 60. that streak is continuing. as we think about the investment landscape and how we want to allocate our investment dollars, we want to position for the beneficiaries of the upside of ,he business cycle in europe and one of the things we are witnessing is a recovery in cap ex. business equipment spending is picking up in europe and elsewhere, and there are a lot

of companies that stand to benefit from that. anastasia, you will be sticking with us. david: and we will be talking about the man who wrote the definitive book on steve bannon -- not that book -- "devil's ," the rise and fall of steve bannon. this is bloomberg. n. this is bloomberg.

♪ yesterday, the world in washington politics blew up over by michael wolff that has not been officially released yet. first of all, the garden in lengthy and published "fire and fewer he" quotes, and then president trump came out with a statement about 1:30 yesterday, saying president trump -- steve bannon has lost his mind, and then the first ladies says it is

entirely untrue, she always wanted her husband to be president, and then tom barrick came out and said he never said the president was stupid and no one ever asked him, and then a trump for donald sent a letter to steve bannon, telling him to cease and desist and they might sue him for violating the terms of his employment. josh, give us, in a nutshell, how did we get to this pass? there was a time when steve bannon and donald trump were joined at the hip. josh: what has happened over the last year is that trump and bannon believe that they are responsible for trump's election, and they are the leaders of the nationalist movement that elected trump. bannon has been frustrated with trump will most since the first weeks of the administration, did not think he could focus on a think ahand, did not

lot about his intellect or political skills, and as you know, he was pushed out of the white house. he has continued to go out and campaign publicly, bannon has, claiming what he is doing is carrying the trump mantle forward, but i think he was building up his own political brand in hopes that he could advance this movement the on just donald trump -- beyond just donald trump. and then in was talking to was talking toon friends, speculating that if trump does decide to not run in 2020, bannon might run. he take upd following away from donald trump? he prides himself on being an economic nationalist, right? not clear who this movement really belongs to. there is a sentiment within the republican party and within the country that supports the ideas that donald trump ran on and steve bannon advanced. the ideas of economic populism,

and anti-immigrant, right-wing nationalism that we saw from the results of the presidential election, that has a lot more salient than people would have imagined two years ago. trump has not been particularly faithful to the agenda he campaigned on, if you look at the tax reform bill, very heavily slanted toward corporations and the wealthy, much less so blue-collar workers. trump has been willing to break with this pace, and bannon sees himself as the rightful inheritor of those ideas. what he has been doing over the past couple of months was going out into the country, campaigning for other politicians, and trying to build a splinter movement within the republican party he said was loyal to trump, but was i think about elevating bannon's own political power. we will see in the next couple of weeks, do voters stick with steve bannon and these ideas, or are they more loyal to donald trump? i think trump will be the bigger

draw here, but we will see. plays out between high drama and farce, but what are in the real world? are the odds of the democrats retaking the house and the senate higher today than yesterday? josh: i think the near-term effect is this is going to weaken bannon's movement, this insurgent splinter faction of white wing -- right wing republicans he has been recruiting to run against him, and -- incumbent republicans. it couldat damage incur in the alabama senate race. royon got behind judge moore, the controversial supreme court justice down there. won the nomination and lost the election to a democrat, that could repeat itself. something else that has not got a lot of attention worth focusing on -- bannon's main benefactor is robert andrew lack of mercer, whose hedge fund has a lot of organizations

that bannon has been in charge of, like breitbart news, that have been such a scourge to mainstream republicans. ander came out yesterday indicated she will withdraw that support. i think that will make bannon much less prominent and be good news for moderate looking. david: many thanks -- moderate republicans. david: many thanks to joshua green. we will be talking about commodities. in light of the big storm coming through, what is going on with commodities and the storm, and what is driving the rally we are seeing? from new york, this is is this a phone?

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highs that spread to asia and europe, european stocks seeing the biggest gain in two weeks. the dax is up over 1% after really strong pmi across the board for the eurozone. let's take a look at the other asset classes. writinglar higher, up 6/10 of 1%. the euro takes the dominant strength again, and a selloff in the bond market in europe and in the u.s. as well, yields slightly higher by about two basis point. the curve a touchdown or today -- touch deeper today as well. a 14 dayporting winning streak for copper, a big part of that, over 1%. at $61s well, up over 1% a barrel. we got the minutes from the fomc december meeting

yesterday, and we learned what we thought we knew already. many members continue to be comfortable with a gradual pace of rate hikes, and thought the tax hike would only lead to moderate increases in spending and investment growth, and they are still puzzled over inflation. joining us now is anastacia amoroso. heare always anxious to what the fed things, because what they think can affect growth and investment. anastasia: they are responding to the global rally, but they are doing this at a gradual pace because inflation is not where it needs to be. as a result of tax reform, for example, and faster growth and then we saw in 2017, they did upgrade their growth estimates from 2.2% to 2.5%. our best case scenario is they will hike three times in 2018, but i can see the upside to that only if inflation actually cooperates.

i do not expect that to be the case, by the way, given the year-over-year comparisons in the next few months, but as we progress through the year we can see that inflation gauge move up toward 2% so we could get more hawkishness in the back end of the year. david: the fed has been pretty signaling in three rate hikes, and the markets as we don't believe you. you think looking back, there will be three hikes? isstasia: our base case three, and i think since september, the markets believe the fed more than they have in the past, because if you look at the front and of the curve, it has moved up quite substantially since september. we do suspect there is more upside to the two-year, and that is where the highest conviction income the fixed markets, that the front of the curve will continue to steepen while the back end should

flatten out. not seem to express a lot of concern about it. it is a level or velocity, when that becomes a true conversation with the fed? lisa: i would say both. it is an ongoing conversation on a lot of our minds, but what matters is the inverted curve, because that is a signal of what is the come, which is most likely a recession. we are not there yet. the speed of flattening does matter, and that what -- is what caught everyone's attention in 2017. we think that slows down in 2018 , because not only do we expect the short rates to rise, but we expect the long end of the curve to back up somewhat. alix: how much? lisa: our forecast -- anastasia: our forecast is 2.75%. alix: so a little bit. theou take a look at

bloomberg, this was our favorite chart yesterday. and two-year break even. also on the climb. how do you play higher inflation? througha: we play it floating-rate securities. the reaction function from higher inflation is that the fed is going to hike more, perhaps more than what the markets expect. if that is the case, you want to be owning debt that is tied to viable rates that would move up in conjunction with the fed funds rate as well. so that is why we are seeing flowing rate securities, but we ry look for car elsewhere, which is why if you look in europe, we are looking for spread, where there is not a whole lot left in many places in europe. but one place we are finding it is in the european contingent convertible. alix: another thing we are looking at today has to do with commodities. crude climbed to $61 a barrel,

the best start of the year since 2012. the best start of the year on the commodity index overall. also a higher rally of copper, aluminum, you name it, it is rallying. --vie -- javier, is this based on global growth or is there another factor here. just oil, younot mentioned aluminum, copper, palladium. all, it is very strong economic growth everywhere. the united states and china in particular, but the manufacturing sector, we saw the tmi data showing the strongest factor activity in seven years. that is really what is driving prices. on top of that, we obviously

have some hot money coming into the sector at the beginning of the year, in part because of those global economic conditions everywhere. is the supply response here in the u.s.? there was a survey by the dallas fed that took into account hundreds of companies in the u.s.. at what level are you going to be increasing production? $61-60 five dollars a barrel was the number -- $65 a barrel was a number. is what we need to be looking at now. the latest model numbers show shale from december 2016 to the end of last year grew by about 950,000 barrels a day. because theg chunk, fed in dallas went to over 100 producers in texas in particular, and in oklahoma. if you see prices over 61%, would you increase, the majority said yes. that could make a big difference

between [indiscernible] or deciding to drill. if you ask shale producers with prices below $61 a barrel, very few will increase production. drilling, but when prices move above $61, that is a trigger point and where we april, maybably by this year, strong shale production. alix: and talk about hedging. -- is very steep. prices are more expensive now than they are in the future, and that creates that backward data curve. take a look in the bloomberg, and you can see what is happening for 2018-2019. that spread is up $40 a barrel. are we over the hill here? javier: that will cause producers and -- in the united states has with a -- to hedge

with a backward data market. but if you look where we are close to $70 -- you have a hike of 70 and have to hedge for next year, maybe $66. that is a fantastic price for producers in africa, so i do not think backward data will be a big problem in terms of hiking. you so much, great to get your perspective. david., david: and anastasia, we are back fro with you. is this sustainable? javier: -- this supply-side has been going on as well. if you look at the global inventories, they are well of the peaks and converging at the five-year average levels that have been key for opec. one thing we are thinking about, while in the past we are at talking about hedging downside risk in oil, we have to think

about hedging the upside risk in oil. we are talking about a market that is balanced from the supply-demand perspective. that show producers goes to offset the global demand that we have. so with that response, we see the inventories drawing, and is a much tighter market that could be unnerved by potential geopolitical risk. that is why it is important to think about inflation, geopolitical risk, and potential upsides in oil. on the otheray commodities, the industrial commodities, we are seeing the same story play out. supply isstrong, starting to decline, and will continue to decline into next year as well, and as a result, inventories are drawing. that sets up a market that is well-balanced, well-positioned for the continuation of the rally. quite a we have seen bit of a rally since early 2016, but it pales in comparison to surges from 2004 and

2006, where the metals index rallied tremendously. we will turn back to the chip story. intel is getting hit after a new report suggests the companies chips areompany's vulnerable to computer hacks, and amd's getting its highest boost since november. jeremy, first start out by explaining one thing to me. intel says this is not that big of a deal, but does the vulnerability apply to amd and nvidia? aboutis some confusion whether it applies more broadly than two intel? jeremy: it applies to intel, and they had companies like amd come out and say they are not to the same extent. but the researchers who found this on ability say there have been able to test this on systems other than intel, including amd and arms systems

as well. so it affects the larger chip ecosystem, not just intel, but intel is the most effective. problem isbig a that? i understand there is a software workaround, but it might affect the performance of your smart phone, for example. there is a patch for this. this is potentially a big deal. if this was not fixed, it would be a big boulder ability that hackers could exploit to get sensitive information -- vulnerability that hackers could offoit to get information your phone. there is a question about how much that patch will slow down the operations of your system -- it depends on what functions you are running. but from what we are hearing, this will most likely not impact most consumers, but large enterprises using computers were seebase operations might significant slowdowns. the effect could be larger, and

the companies that run those clout systems are working on various workarounds. they are trying to minimize the impact on speed as much as possible, but there are researchers out there saying in tests, the slowdown could be as much with some older systems up to 30%. alix: -- david: thanks, jeremy. talk more can you generally about tech? it had a great year in 2017. some people are saying maybe it will turn around, maybe it will keep going? we had to take a long, hard look at tech, because it is a sector that has done phenomenally well. we are valuation heavily rated, and it is one of the favorite overweight's by many of the fund managers. so from the positioning standpoint, it is not a contrarian trade. that will restent -- but where we stand at the end of the day capext some of the

dollars can go as well. it is not just the limits and construction side of things, but increasingly it is spending on software. that is why i think software is well-positioned in this part of the business cycle, and semi conductors are geared to about every secular theme we see out there, whether it is connected cars, electric vehicles, by the way, which require a greater power semi conductor content than a traditional vehicle -- all of that is very important for semi conductors. alix: anastasia, great to see you. happy new year and thanks for being here. some breaking news, l brands stock getting hammered, at one point down 10%. the estimate was for them to rise 1.4%, and they also see earnings for the fourth quarter about two dollars. the estimate for analysts this two dollars and five cents. a negative story for the retailer. what wall street is

talking about today, including plans to invest or not to invest in cryptocurrencies. and if you cannot find us on television, listen on the radio. joins tom from 9:00 to 10:00 on bloomberg surveillance, and you can hear them in new and, boston, the bay area, washington dc on sirius xm. from new york, this is bloomberg. rom new york, this is bloomberg.

emma: this is bloomberg daybreak. coming up in the next hour, michael steele, the former rnc chair. this is bloomberg.

alix: we now turn to the wall street beat, where we cover three things where wall street is buzzing this morning. first, hedge funds getting into cryptocurrencies, big names, small number. from tower, $140 million union square ventures. our second story has to do with the crazy ride that michael: has been on. formally audited and charged with 10 counts of rod. fraudmpany was charged -- . the family was charged with fraud years ago -- it is a crazy story. response wall street's to michael wolff's new book "fire and fury." how much does wall street care about the story that we read yesterday? let's start out with block tower. 140 million is not a big deal, but it got me excited. david: this is a headline where

you have cryptocurrency, hedge funds, but let's throw in warren buffett and tiger woods and make it the most red headline ever. where the money is actually going, and as you mentioned in the intro, union square -- these are real venture capital firms. obviously, they are in the business of risk to some extent, but they are putting some of their money where a lot of mouths are. david: they have such a track record, but this is the first time i ever read about blockchain was in horowitz. they were saying we are interested not in bitcoin, but blockchain. we think that will change things. jason: and i notice evolving story, and we have been all following the ebbs and flows of bitcoin pricing, but it is an interesting point that lock chain, the underlying technology is what these people are going after. david: let's talk about bitcoin,

because at the same time, bank of america merrill lynch said you cannot get involved at this point of investment trusts, because their divisors cannot sell it or allow their customers to acquire it. i thought that was a fascinating scoop, because that gets into how the broader market may or may not be able to access it. clearly, what we saw in november and december was this widening aperture, as it were, of people .eing able to get in if the broader market is not able to get in, if retail brokerages, and brokerages in general cannot get it to their customers, that starts to feel a little more bubbly. sachs.-800-goldman david: and the second story is michael:. michael cohen.-

this is a spinoff off of that story. michael cohen is being charged with fraud in loaning money for a yacht in libya? anastasia: african -- african super yachts, bribes, the countries involved, but you pull this thread as it quites to it, and it is astounding. it should be a movie at some point. maybe just a movie that nerds like us would see. hedge funds gone wrong? [laughter] anastasia: just -- jason: the elements of this dewpoint to the risk that comes r investing. africa wind large, and there are lots of countries and opportunities there. this does seem like something of an ongoing warning signal as to how you have to -- alix: frontier is ok, but don't

bribe people. don't house funnel money if you are in securities. david: and it does not involve warren buffett, but it is president trump, steve bannon, and michael wolff in one story. is this anything else beyond mild interest? anastasia: i read -- jason: i read this somewhat graciously. michael wolff has been inside a stories in our time. he wrote a book about the.com and ventures in the mid-90 90's -- 1990's. one thing that jumped out to me is that this is a reminder that some of the key players in this white house to hail from wall street. there is an excerpt i read this morning from politico about and even a purportedly talking about gary cohn thinking, tom barrick was mentioned yesterday, someone who is familiar to people on wall street and private equity

in hedge funds. said: but he came out and that he has not said it, and nobody actually checked it. but this brings in the credibility of michael wolff. i went back to a new republic 2004 article that look at what he had done in the past. scenesson his columns -- in his columns are not just creative, they are created. they also referenced my favorite story, why he has table five at this particular restaurant and i work ato be seen -- that restaurant and i know what table it was, and it was the last good table, so it was not that amazing. one through four were better tables. anastasia: everything you are -- jason: everything you are saying is so interesting.

and clearly, our colleague likes to talk about the zeitgeist every day. alix: you do too, you are the zeitgeist guy. jason: i copy him, but this is a very zeitgeist-y type story right now. and one thing that jumped out at me to from the excerpt in new york magazine was how much purportedly trump was looking to impress people back in new york? that part of one of his driving elements, according to wolff's book, was this notion of satisfying or proving that he -- in manhattan. david: that is not important at all, of course. alix: table five. david: jason kelly, thank you for being with us. coming up, the east coast races for the worst storm. why we are watching this storm, coming up next. out tv .ck

interact with us online, check out our chart and graphics, and interact with us directly. this is bloomberg.

♪ won't surprise you -- how i am going to get home? alix: how are you going to get home? david: i have my parka and snow boots so if i have to walk i will walk. alix: how cold is it? david: this no has just begun, but the reports are awful. it has gotten a bit warmer. alix: and that he heatwave -- 40 degrees? much more coming up on this global rally thursday. this is bloomberg. thursday. this is bloomberg. retail.

under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered.

leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. ♪ alix: global growth rally. asia is footing with historic

market highs. commodities have extended their record runs. chip securities -- chip insecurity. are allest chipmakers at the risk of hacking -- and snow bomb -- parts of the u.s. brace were hurricane force winds harrying snow. we are new yorkers. get out there. go shopping and get to work. david: all the schools are close is mike -- close and my wife home from work. alix: here is where we stack up, just about half hour until the open. 2700 was the close from yesterday. that rally continued in asia and here in the u.s.. this is the first time in

decades that we have had a two s&p for the the dec start of the year. pma data out of europe at 4/10 of 1%, and a stronger dollar after the fed meeting did not hold any water. most bonds on offer today, but two basiss up by points, and crude having a nice move over $61 a barrel. the range where producers will start adding riggs. this has to do with copper and industrial metals -- copper up and speaking of global growth, is it sustainable? david: time to get a check on what is going on outside the business world with emma chandra. emma: a dramatic split between president trump and one of the former architects of his campaign. the president says former white house strategist steve bannon this camehis mind." after the release of excerpts of the book after been

insulted president trump -- then and criticize president trump and his family. the storm has knocked out power to thousands of homes and has forced the cancellation almost 3000 flights. the storm is threatening blizzard conditions along the eastern seaboard, possibly up to a foot of snow. and in the u.k., prime minister theresa may believes michel barnier is bluffing. officials say she does not believe the eu's chief negotiator when he says there will be no special post-brexit deal for settling the financial services. this would allow banks to keep operating freely across the eu. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm emma chandra, this is bloomberg. alix? alix: thank you, emma. the story for the dollar, you get a reprieve from five days of

selling, and that is a weaker dollar, euro-dollar. take a look at the dollar index. it is bouncing off some undersold levels. the bottom panel has to do with the rsi, and the green line is where green is oversold. we are bouncing above that. 91.89 is where we sit on the dollar index. did you buy the dollar? >> not really. look, i think it depreciated by about 8% last year. it will not we can buy as much year. the fed is still hiking, if you look at the bond market since the start of the year, the yield is heading higher the.dollar should not follow the yield completely, but the preshow -- pace will be slower. they were talking about bonds are not in the bubble. year will stay0 lower.

one, transparency of the fed chair, too, lower volatility of inflation expectations, and 3 -- can the same be said about the weaker dollar? vassili: we would agree with that view. that would imply a relatively flat yield curve, which is what we expect. expectot deepening in the yield curve. but i think that is vertical for the dollar. the two paths were dollar strength -- either we are underestimating the growth impact of the tax reform or some kind of productivity boost, so the endpoint for the fed is higher than we think, or we are underestimating inflation. if there is inflation surge, that fed will have to hike faster. so i think the dollar would do better under those scenarios, but that is not our base case. ford: what is your estimate the increase in growth because of the tax overhaul? we were talking to someone who said that's .2% 10.4% incrementally.

vassili: that is where we are as well. david: and they say this will really support the dollar? vassili: that is an interesting issue. many people compare it to the hia, homeless investment act of 2004, where companies got one year to bring back overseas profits. this is not how it works. the corporate got a tax bill stability over eight years on all of their stability -- retaining's overseas. what they do with the money is their choice. if they bring the money back , it will be relatively gradual but i think the majority is in u.s. dollars. david: they would have to pay no taxes they brought it back, so it is even stevens. with a bring it back? vassili: that has been freed up from tax liability, but it is an economic decision. growth picks up and then there

is more scrutiny bringing it back. some companies might decide to buy back shares or payback that impact onthe direct the dollar will not be that high, because you bring back the money already in u.s. dollars, which is about 85% of it by our estimates. in might help the dollars in the equity market. if it does really well, it could support the dollar, but they are also pricing in some of that tax already. i think you are looking of the european currency is doing well, the scandinavian currencies, those are the ones that will do well. you still have a lot of opportunities for some of the central european currencies, and maybe some of the latin american currencies outside of the mexican peso, which has its own idiosyncratic issues. mentioned euro-dollar, so what is your call for the end of the year? we had 1.23 at the end

of the year. if we were to take regions in general and qualify our effects for you, we would say europe's first, america second, and asia third. alix: nt talk about how we are not really tracking real yield when it comes to currencies? this is the german five-year .eal yield on the top panel you can see the real yield is negative, which means inflation is not picking up that much, but the euro continues to climb. on the bottom panel, the dollar index is lower but the real yield is higher. why the distortion? interestingis an question. typically, we follow nominal yields in the foreign exchange markets. i like to think about the research that we have done that real yields matter when expectations move a lot. alix: they are moving. vassili: a lot in a short amount of time. when you had qe1 and inflation expectations surged, real yields

fell dramatically in that short amount of time. investors were worried about inflation limiting their returns, and that encouraged them to take money overseas. if it is a gradual divergence in real yields, i think it is less important. that being said, i would argue that europe and the euro will need to see real yield picking up eventually to keep the euro going. david: where do you see the yen going this year? is that a good investment? vassili: i do not think it is yet. i think the boj is lacking the hiking cycle, the global tightening cycle is starting in 2017. 2018 is still the year where the yen is your funding currency in a sense that where if you want to play monetary policy elsewhere, higher yields elsewhere, you use the yen to fund it. when you look at the valuations of the yen, it is clear that it is cheap.

am a long-term perspective, the yen is cheap, the dollar-yen will be closely trading to 100. when is the trading point? we think it is later, based on the boj outlook. top or the bottom of the pond? vassili: it has a scenario where it has autumn doubt, but the risk is pretty large. out, but the risk is pretty large. i think we will see some weakness and volatility if we see brexit negotiations stumbling. [laughter] vassili: when or if. expects us torket get to a constructive point eventually, but i think some kind of accident along the road -- like the european debt crisis -- we got that resolved, but there were many bumps, to put it mildly, along the road. alix: so we talk about the

global rally in the batter global sink nice recovery and meaning foris that hedge positions? what will be a sustainable growth fx rally? vassili: in terms of the hedges , we find that equity investments are less hedged been bond investments. i think that is the key relationship here. when the dollar did better this year, when we saw some equity inws into the u.s. september, october. in terms of the head to -- head to and investment, large square equities are going, and we think they will be going to europe. that is the growth recovery story. flows have been strong this year -- last year, and they will be strong this year, which is why the euro will be ok. david: -- alix: vasily, thanks.

david? david: up next, repercussions of about a book out next week about trump and the white house are already being felt. we talked to an insider about the fact -- the effect. this is bloomberg, and that is a live shot of new york, if you want to come visit. i think it will be bad. you're watching bloomberg tv. e watching bloomberg tv.

♪ this is bloomberg daybreak, and i melenchon with your bloomberg is this flash. this alliance reported earnings that beat estimates. walgreens posted strong prescription sales and is in the midst of buying more than 1900

bright a locations at about 4.4 aidion -- write -- rite locations that about $4.4 billion. karen katz is stepping down and will be replaced by an outsider. ceo of theen the luxury retailer since 2010. the company is struggling with debt from two leveraged buyout. shares of this department store are plunging today, after the company warned they will earnings will be less --e than expected after a week holiday period. david: thank you, emma. washington learned about a new book due out next week by media , calledt michael wolff it hasnd fury," and elicited extreme reaction. we have some quotes from the a copy of it.ad

new york magazine came out with a lengthy excerpt recounting with what happened to the campaign and the white house. round 1:20 yesterday afternoon, president trump is you'd a long statement by a male -- issued a long statement by email, saying onlysteve bannon had not lost his job, but his mind. his spokesperson came out after 2:00, saying there are a lot of untruths and it should be disregarded. the spokesperson for the first lady came out, denying some parts of the book that apparently say she did not want her husband to be president in the first place. and tom barrett, yesterday afternoon, came out and said he never said what was attributed to him in the book. according to published reports, he called president "stupid." he said he never said it and michael wolff never checked with him seeing if he had said it. finally, trump's lawyer sent a

letter to benin in, telling him -- badin,nd desist telling him to cease and desist. we now want to go through the aftermath of all of this drama, and we now welcome michael steele. during his career, he has held a number of senior communications including handling communications for jeb bush's presidential campaign. michael, good to have you here. a someone who has advised number of republican leaders, put this into some context for us? how is this going on with the republican party in the white house at this point? michael: there is so much news these days that it is difficult to tell the signal from the noise, but this is an extremely big deal. president trump's election victory and his administration have relied on an often uneasy alliance between

conventional republicans in the led by steveing bannon. another break between bannon and the white house is a big deal in terms of the consequences going forward for the president's agenda, the future of the administration, and trumpism itself. what ramifications might this have for the president's agenda on capitol hill? does it affect his standing with democrats and republicans in getting refunding of the government later this month? michael: i think it changes the 's agenda and terms of priorities. i think you will see less emphasis on more of the nationalist agenda items, and more emphasis on traditional republican or democratic leaning priorities, like a large infrastructure bill. onid: you have spent time capitol hill with john boehner when he was speaker of the house. is a win for mitch

mcconnell, who was never close with steve bannon? michael: yes, i think mcconnell and his team are extremely happy. especially in the alabama senate seen aseve bannon was someone working against the best interests of senate republicans or having a government majority who can get things done for the american people. he was a disruptive element and backing candidate who could not win because they were loathsome kooks. david: and by extension, could this be bad news for the democrats? at president trump or to move more toward the center of the republican party, is there a chance he could be more successful and popular than he has been? regular having some cadence to governing, having a feeling of response ability and respectability would help -- responsibility and respectability would help. happen ine vote will

the next year and a half. what will happen for progress to be made on big issues like infrastructure and immigration is bipartisan efforts, and i think that will be easier because mr. bannon is no longer part of the picture. david: finally, take us forward to november, where we have the midterm elections. whatever probability would put taking back the house and the senate -- has the number gone up or down? michael: it has gone down, and substantially, because eliminating bannon as a political force it limited concern about divisive primaries that leave republicans weekend going into the general election. alix: adp breaking a few moments ago. private companies added 250,000 december.e month of that was larger than the estimate, 190,000 jobs. this is just about 24 hours until jobs friday.

will that kind of matchup? in november, we had that crazy and then you have the jobs number that was solid but missed the estimates there. dollar index is off the lows of the session, but there. the 2/10 spread is lower, but a bit of movement around the highs of the session. coming up, the continuing saga of tesla and its model three, manufacturer disappointed once again on the pace of production -- shocker. how much money do they need? this is bloomberg. need? this is bloomberg.

♪ alix: tesla breaks another production promise. of company's pushback production targets for its all-important model three. tesla's stock down by 3% in premarket. overall, tesla delivered over

5500 model threes in the final months of the year. here at the tesla cars produced each quarter, around 250,000, but less than we have seen in the past, although it did beat its own forecast for the model s and model x. we are joined on the phone from stanford. he has an underperforming rating on tesla. give me your strongest conviction as to why, jeff? keeps breaking down here in terms of the ability to hit overambitious targets from management. the tone of the release last night has been a bit watered down, and they are starting to try and regain some more credibility. in general, we have seen continued execution delays, a lack of profitability over the next two to three years, and with elon musk's world domination strategy and the factories he wants

to build around the world. how much w feel like he needs the next two to three years, or six months, quite frankly? next six months, the $1 billion, $1.5 billion range. i think they will step off the gas, no pun intended, on the production in fremont. out by 6-9een pushed months as opposed to initial expectations. that will lead to a pause in spending in 2018. but the key question is to fill that hole, you will need about $1.5 billion in the short-term. -- 2019ook out for 19 and 2020, the question is do they want to be in china or not, which is the largest 80 market in -- ev market in the world. they will need to spend an additional $4 billion or $5 billion for that. alix: you say that, but investors have been lapping up

the money they put out. when did that change? was the first bond offering they did and it was nice to see it get done. it was an junk-bond status, and it has broken the deal price. our senses that the next debt deal will need to be a lot more transparent about the overall ambitions and capital needs of the company will be? spend $10 million or more over a three-year basis for these additional factories -- $10 billion or more over a three-year basis for these additional factories will remain to be seen and will remain to be cash flow positive, which we are questioning? david: tesla is not the only game in town, there is also a piece about the chevy bolt and how it is gaining, selling at a rate of 3200 cars a month in december. it is no eating -- now beating the previous.

ius.- pr is tesla running out of time? jeff: you are right, the bold is outselling the model three by 3-1. one is a more mature platform than the other, and tesla did launch the three with employees as guinea pigs and did not go through the teasing of beta production, which they are suffering for now. but the competitive market and the luxury market, where most of the sales are, that is intensifying over the next couple of months. alix: jeff osborne, great to get your insight. the adp initial jobs claims is next. this is bloomberg. next. this is bloomberg.

alix: this is bloomberg daybreak. it is a global growth rally underway. the s&p closing about 2700 for the first time yesterday.

a two day rally in the beginning of the year. we are right around the highs of the session after that blowout. european stocks also participating in that rally. pmi crushing and. euro-dollar -- crushing it. euro-dollar on the front foot. you do have a little bit of selling in the bond market, picking up steam. yields up in the u.s. by about two basis points. thatr and nymex crude, commodity rally continues as global growth continues and initial jobless claims coming out in line with estimates. jobless claims coming in at 215,000. slightly higher than estimates but still within the range and it all tells the story of a solid jobs market and the question mark continues to be

where all the wages -- where are the wages? joining us now is tom porcelli of rbc capital, managing director and chief u.s. economist. where are these just coming from? tom: i make what is more critical than where they're coming from is the fact that we continue to pull people from the sidelines. that is something we have been surprised by. not in the of people labor force continues to decline because they are making their way into the labor force. a pretty fascinating development. onyour earlier question wages, we think that is one of the things acting as a ceiling over the wage profile for most folks. if you keep pulling people from the sidelines, it is going to act as a suppressant. have advanced, not as much as some people might want, but they have advanced and that is acting as a ceiling. david: no question we are pulling them in, but it is as a

-- it is at a slow pace. what is going to be required to really pull people all in? actually askedo the question, do we want them all in one fell swoop? this nice steady approach, i think is much less volatile and i think it means it could also go on for much longer and that is something that i think has to be kept in mind. think about it from a unemployment rate perspective. if we get down to levels from before the downturn, you could see an unemployment rate that has a to handle. 83 handle is a foregone conclusion, this year. the thing we are wondering about is if we are able to continue casually pulling these people from the sidelines. does that enable us to get down to a two handle? we think that is a high

probability of event. alix: a two handle is a big call. let's pretend we get there. what is the fed going to do about that? tom: the thing that is driving the fed. process is we are clearly in the realm of full employment. if we are able to continue to pull these people from the sidelines, that is going to add to this narrative of potential wage pressure. financial context of conditions that remain easy despite the fact that the fed has hiked rates multiple times already. that is what will keep the fed fully engaged. we had this call since 2016 that the fed will hike rates four times. we have to wonder, do they do more than that? we are saying we have another for hikes in for next year and we think all of that is on the back of this idea that the labor market will continue to grow

tight and will usher in this bout of continued wage pressure which should feed into the inflation narrative and all of that in the context of a much softer financial condition despite the fed raising rates. it is the perfect recipe. david: we talk about averages. we don't talk about the median. it is a real distribution issue that is growing across the country. they can affect the economy because typical dastardly people with lower incomes spend in the increment. what is causing the increase in wage disparity? idea of people sitting on the sidelines is playing into that idea. that is obviously going to secure -- obscure the -- that is obviously going to's you the median. it has been a slow process and we expect it will continue to be a slow process but you should see some catch up on that front.

we do think that the broader narrative will be constructive. rally, theuity dollar index is trading around 91, a 2/10 spread that is dangerously close to breaking 50. argue the right market reactions for the scenario you are laying out? right marketthe reactions for the scenario you are laying out? tom: a pretty pristine economic backdrop. we are talking about means and averages. on average, we exist in this pristine backdrop for the average of people. there are people who are doing better than that and there are people who are doing worse than that, but the reality is we exist in a really nice economic profile and we think growth will easily be post 3% this year in part on the back of a bump we are going to get. markets will continue to advance

and i think the dollar will continue to strengthen and by the end of the year, i think we will all be pretty happy with where we are from a economic perspective. alix: what is the risk? tom: this is the thing we need to focus on. it is true that i think it is going to be a nice year, but the risks from our perspective. one in the near term is that the fed does not raise rates enough. the fed just lets this get away from itself. the fed is all too aware of what happened in 2004 when they went on a slow fashion, did not raise rates enough. i think that is one of the things that you need to keep in mind, just to sort of distill that idea. a lot of people will tell you , thethe fed raising rates risk there is to snuff the economic backdrop. our stance is the fed does not raise rates enough.

it lets those financial imbalances built-in. that is risk one. more long-term, one of the biggest risks remains the demographic reality. that is something that is going to continue to clamp down on economic activity. to us, that is the single biggest structural problem facing the backdrop. job expectations coming in a 190,000. still over to 12. are going adp, people to goose of expectations to some extent. 250 was a really nice outcome. that will get the whisper to elevate to some extent. we are not going to change our payroll number. keep in mind about that adp report, the average miss for december is amount 50,000 so if you love that off, you are at

200,000. tom porcelli of rbc capital markets, thank you so much. as you crews in, today, you can tom keene on bloomberg surveillance. you can hear them in new york, boston, the bay area and all across the united states on sirius xm radio. that whether you are seeing right now, a live shot off of the roof of this building. a big snows -- a big storm coming up the east coast. this is not a serious storm, yet. we will be talking about that storm and its affect on markets, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: -- emma: this is bloomberg daybreak. brian wieser, pivotal research group senior research analyst. this is bloomberg. now to your bloomberg business flash. morgan stanley wealth management warns it is too late in the market cycle to belt -- to bet on junk bonds. it is completely slashing high-yield debt allocations. the new tax cuts may lead to the -- at&t plans to be the first mobile carrier in the u.s. to offer six generation 5g service to regular customers. that will put the company against verizon and t-mobile. at&t says they will introduce a commercial 5g service in a dozen cities. london was the worst performing

-- performing housing market in the u k, last year for the first time in more than a decade. london home values fell 1.5 -- one half of a percent in 2017. meanwhile, home prices nationally in the u.k. rose 2.6%. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: parts of the u.s. northeast are bracing for winter's worth storm -- worst storm so far. boston in areas of new england could get more than 18 inches. nearly 3000 flights have been canceled and new york city's ferry services have been suspended. my kids are home. basung us now are shunondo , our bloomberg new energy finance analyst and kit konolige. through what the bulk of

the storm is and what we can focus on. shunondo: the real difference with this storm versus the tip -- typical snowstorm is the winds. expecting maybe somewhere between six and 10 inches and even more as you go up into new england and the boston area. alix: what i need is heat and electricity. are the power providers able to provide all the power that we need? kit: so far. i took a look at some of the outage maps that are recommended for people if you want to know how it is looking around where you live. there are not a lot of outages yet in north carolina. it is in thelina, hundreds but it is not a massive wipeout of the system. if it gets heavier snow and

stronger wind up into the northeast, and we are looking for the new england area to be possible problems for power lines falling. alix: you brought a chart a long. oil, jens capest aggregate which shows demand for northeast oil and gas and you see the gas demand staying high because it is cold but then you see oil demand. kit: especially in new england but also new york city and upstate, gas demand has to go for both heating and electricity , so what happens when it gets cold, obviously the gas needs to go to people's homes to heat them. there is less gas available for power plants to run in those areas and that is when the oil peaks. -- fact that there is a not there is not enough pipeline capacity to get to new england means a dirtier fuel has to get used for electricity. alix: what does that mean for

inventories? we are expecting a pretty high withdrawal from search facilities. definitely over 200 bcf. we are expecting quite a bit less than what we had, last year. alix: do we have enough supply? shunondo: we do. we started off this season with not a record-breaking amount of natural gas that certainly higher than the 10 year normal. alix: you were also looking at what industries are using it it really piggybacks with gas demand for residential and commercial uses, that has really shot up in the last few months. areaeneration is that blue , so that purple is pretty much flat. shunondo: the main story is residential, we are very cold.

january 1 was the coldest day and that was the day when -- when the most gas was used. have why aren't henry future prices having the same kind of rally we saw in the other cold snap? shunondo: that is a great question. it boils down to the structural system, the way to markets are sort of set up right now, we have a lot of supply right now. a lot more infrastructure than we had two or three years ago. that is able to move supplies out of parts like appalachia and the midwest and get the gas where it needs to go. the second thing is, we might still have a warmer second half of january, so the markets are not anticipating this sort of short-term demand to carry on into the latter half of the month. alix: i am also finding power prices surprising. power prices for the northeast

and we saw huge spikes on friday and we knew the storm was coming but when a -- but now we have backed down. is this a demand thing or is this that traders got too far over their skis? kit: i think it is some of both of those as well as the overall commodity price structure is lower now than it was in the last big peak of electricity prices, especially in the northeast. now oil is $60, so the difference in what you can burn, you see that spike in oil usage, you did not see that, last time. oil was so expensive that you would not switch over. oil holds down the price in new england and new york. alix: how much are we drawing in other sources? kit: nuclear runs steadily.

electric companies are going to say this is a great example of why we need nuclear. did -- if the power plants were not running, you would be in a different situation and that is a lot of power to replace and we want to leave that in place. david: it is winter and it is cold, that is not entirely a shock. is per capita energy consumption in this country going down? both in the summer with the air conditioner war and winter, with the heat or. is it going up or going down? kit: it is going down. household consumption of electricity is going down. half a percent per year, really. much,thank you so shunondo basu of bloomberg new energy finance and kit konolige of bloomberg intelligence. phil streible,is

senior commodity broker for rg road -- rj o'brien and associates. gas go upaw natural to 310. you would expect it to continue to have upside. i think natural gas might be thawing out at these levels until you have inventory data coming out. more sophisticated traders are looking at this cold front and into the snow -- into the snow coverage and they are coming up with different trades. you are having less people drive as a result of these types of storms or even across the country, you look at the hard winter and the snow cover. now we've got that cold front coming through and a winter chill in place. we are above the 50 day moving average and you cannot forget the live cattle. it is going to take more protein to keep those cows alive.

more beans than corn. you cannot forget or stews down in florida. --s is a crowd entelechy crowd mentality. everyone comes in and everyone has to go out, so this might be a trade where we see a temporary spike but we come down and normalized levels. alix: i like that you brought up week -- wheat. if you don't have snow on the ground when a chill comes, it in supporting you. what is the short-term trade? do you want to see shorting into the rally? phil: we are still looking at caller margins. larger expectations, but you start looking at the good to excellent ratio on oklahoma, illinois and also kansas. those are weekly reports that

come out. you monitor those and look for the continuation. i like going along into the weakness. alix: wrapping up with oil, help me out. you have wti at 61. i think that is going to come back as well. oil does not have much room at the upside. analysts coming out with $80 predictions. you have the possibility of a conflict with iran coming out. it could cause it to have that temporary spike. we could see less oil in the pipeline but i think there is a burden of oversupply and i think we come back down before 60. alix: thank you very much, phil streible of rj o'brien. sprint stock is halted. there is a delay in opening. news is pending. i have lots of thoughts. david: any of them involving

t-mobile? alix: a little bit. about that was done. the stock is halted. gas andoming up, crude other numbers will be out this morning. alix: if you have a bloomberg terminal, check out tv . interact with us directly. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: what i am watching, today. looking at production. we are going to get a read on production for the u.s. and we have seen high prices. take a look at this chart, wti above 60.

does production start to catch up? do we see production reacting to those higher numbers? david: you said 61 to 64 was the key number. how much of a lag is there? alix: a six to 12 month lag depending on where you are operating. this is a dallas fed study. anywhere between 61 and 65 is when producers want to put more rigs to work. can we export that oil and if not, is it going to sit here and that is going to be a downside for prices. david: are we already higher than we thought we would be given shale? alix: no. we had all the analysts revise their numbers at the end of last year. it was 57, maybe 58. i think we are going to have to have upgrades again or we just way out over our skis.

you are making money like a bandit if you are a shale guy. the cost of extracting is not that high anymore. alix: unless you are hedged at $50 a barrel. you are not making money at $61. interesting point. get homesick, by the way. -- get home safe, by the way. coming up, brian wieser, pivotal research group senior research analyst. that does it for bloomberg daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪ retail.

under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store

near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. jonathan: 30 minutes until the start of trading, this is the countdown to the open. ♪

coming up, two days of trading in 2018, two all-time highs. advertiser, the adp report comes in better-than-expected. the commodity complex strings together 15 days of gains and crude climbs to levels not seen in three years. let's whip through some of the action with futures firmer, up almost eight points on the s&p 500 after a close north of 2700 for the first time ever. upthe fx market, euro-dollar 4/10 of 1% off the back of that one -- off of the back of that strong day in the eurozone. 2018 is picking up where 2017 left off. two record closes with the dow clos