♪ francine: foot drilling, so. the progress they are making. the divisively with the oil ministers. then, ubs shares fall with a $1.2 billion by back. we hear from the ceo of sanofi this hour. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance. live from the world economic forum, in davos. joined by mark barton in london. i have not seen this much snow

behind me for the last 13 years in davos. i know we have some great coverage and panels. speaking tomorrow with the barclays ceo, jes staley. we will be talking about the future of banking. . friday i will be moderating a panel on monetary policy and what comes after normalization. by ray dalio.ed we are trying to figure out exactly what the davos men and last yearso wrong, and what they got so right. we are looking at some of the market calls they made last time . the dollar call was wrong and so was the price. three.re in day

let's check out what is happening in the markets today. there is the stoxx 600, gaining for a third day after a third weekly gain. the best run since october. the euro, up by .5%. there is a bit of relief now. voting to enter negotiations on the common policy platform for germany. they have still got his final say on any coalition pack. there is another hurdle. this week, itins will be the sixth straight gain. the u.s. 10 year yield will change two point 56%. a vote is scheduled today, according to the senate majority leader. it could end the shutdown, just as it begins to take hold. it is unclear whether democrats will support this immigration deal. 1/5 ofnt crude is up by 1%. russia,abia and

pledging supply cuts will continue. some banks protect the deal could come early. let's get the bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. will buy back as much as $2.1 billion. within three years. the by that program will begin in march with the zurich-based lender starting a new dividend policy. ermotti says he will target an increase of single-digit high-growth each year. >> we are able to continue and refinance and retool our capital with our policies. the fact that we are announcing and we are by 8%, also announcing a share buyback program will partially be 2018.ed in >> reporter: opec and russia will comply with cuts before the

end of the year, and signal the readiness to cooperate beyond that. in an exclusive joined interview, novak told bloomberg that russia is continue prepareo continue cooperating with opec, even after the cuts expire. >> operation between our countries is long served. regardless if it is in terms of the markets, or other areas. our cooperation is based on the agreements we signed in china in september. over the last 1.5 years, we have shown a very successful -- we have shown a lot of success. we have had a successful run. udi authorities say they are likely to recover more than $100 billion with corruption suspects in a probe that implicated dozens of billionaires. a government official has told bloomberg that talks the suspect

held at the ritz carlton are expected to finish by the end of the month and those who do not reach deals will be handed over. partnerctive coalition swallowed its misgivings and entered negotiations on a common policy platform. willavarian allies coordinate on strategy today, allowing top candidate resumption of the grand coalition to begin as soon as tomorrow. across the world hundreds of thousands took to the streets this weekend for the 2018 wome n's march. much larger protests were held on saturday across america. president donald trump's inauguration. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. and this isehic

bloomberg. mark: the u.s. government shutdown has extended into a third today with the senate failing to broker a deal. it essentially began on saturday government officials stopped working. turner,us now, cap mike julian chillingworth and leslie, associate feather at chatham house. -- associate fellow at chatham house. will this mode pass? >> i think it remains a bit of an open question, but if i had to vote now, i would say they did not have the votes. democrats are looking at insurance that they will have, at least not in this bill, some vote to protect the so-called dreamers. they were young people brought here as children.

but now they are either in the military or attended college -- that sort of thing. it looks like they do not have a very firm commitment yet on that. i would think they will probably hold out. mark: it is the intention for them to vote on immigration post february 8. intention is not enough. >> we will see if it is enough for democrats, but that bruc represents a far step back from what position has been up to this point. does the shutdown actually optic make it less likely that the president shows up? >> i think it is worth noting that his staff of the weekend made a point of pointing out that it would not be possible under the shutdown for the president to go. interesting that they

are laying the groundwork. i think it raises the question that the president could still go to switzerland for davos. the optics might be a little tricky, seeing the president in a swiss alps town while the government is shut down. but this president has been willing to do things that are not traditional. up, what willshow he addressed? >> there are bets now on whether the shutdown will continue into thursday. the fact that we did not see an agreement over the weekend means both sides will probably dig in now. mark: who is winning the blame game? >> right now it is putting much split, but it will affect a large number of people.

there are many daily things americans like to a cobblers bush and they will not be able to do so. public sentiment the shift as thosehutdown command democrats in particular will be more concerned to get a deal. but there is a hard hold on this. the dreamers have tremendous sympathy in the united states. well over 80% of americans think it is important for them to have a deal. we are contributing to american society. .t is a very tricky thing this is the point where democrats have leverage, so it is unclear where they will go. what path can he play? ande remained in the wings was given very clear advice by the people around him that he should stay out of this and let it be seen as congress is to

blame, not the fault of the president. i think he wanted to get into the game and i am certain he would like to go to davos. last year president xi the stage. to go with the u.s. government shutdown will be very bad optics and frankly, really bad. there is tremendous pressure to move forward. but from paying that so cautiously. i am skeptical. atncine: if you look markets, it seems a lot of them took the impasse in stride. at what point did they start becoming nervous about the shutdown? >> it looks very picturesque there. davos -- never cold. and it looks to me

like in terms of previous shutdowns, the market is taking it in its stride. i am sure you have seen these numbers as well. over the last 25 years, it has been a pretty zero-sum game. investors will find a way of them getting back to work in it doesa solution, or not make that much of a difference because of the composition of the american economy. latter.the and the other thing i saw was even during the longest shutdown within the last 25 years, you just saved a quarter of a point off of gdp. it is quite marginal. . there is a little public support

for a deal on the dreamers. consequently, i think if democrats can broker that, then a deal can be done quickly. reporter: does it in pinch on tax reform.nda post if we get over this hurdle, which it seems we will one day, what does it mean for the agenda host. congress is going to have to come keep coming back to this and probably to look much more carefully at immigration. bigger forward his plans, remember, we were looking for infrastructure in 2017 and we saw nothing and that was supposed to be at the center of trump's agenda. be prospect that he will able to move forward on bigger items is looking like he'll get .ushed back

it will not bode well for what he tries to do in the upcoming weeks and even months. >> how do you think the president, if he does show up, will be received by other world leaders. we were looking back at what was said last year and a lot of the ceos were supporting donald trump during the week of his inauguration 12 months ago. and he want to come here strike a friendly tone? or, will because mayhem. >> i think he wants to be well-received, the well-liked. you have the past can't reform which is very significant, corporate tax cuts that will be well received by the audience. he is traveling with his secretary of state, secretary of treasury, people who would like to be well-received.

the question is as to what tone he will strike. he will want to be sure that his remarks play bigger and with a larger audience and get more attention than xi's did last year. that would be a very important point. mark: leslie, thank you. plentyth "surveillance," coming up. political breakthrough. chancellor merkel gets the sdp's backing behind coalition top. is the stalemate end on the horizon? the swiss bank announcing a plan to purchase up to $2.1 billion in stocks. ermotti.from sergio

this is bloomberg. ♪

david: economic, finance and politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," and i'm mark barton in davos. nejra: sanofi has agreed to to adde bioverativ treatments for rare blood disorders to its portfolio. by their teeth -- guy: guy: guy: guy bioverativ was spun off of biogen last year.

euros to2.7 billion get complete control over the e-commerce business. investors will receive 38 euros a share. richement already us 25%. the ultrafast with generation of wireless technology will be a revolution of the industry. bloomberg was told that the company will be able to analyze investments. tomatoes to health care and will benefit from revenue sharing agreements. >> the ink in the u.s. -- being in the u.s. is great. it is a growing market. it is a market where the pace of the investment is something which is predictable.

is not something that is regulated as it is here. reform, we have been getting the tailwind here. >> that is the bloomberg business flash. angela merkel has moved forward in her bid to form a fourth term government. agotiations were under tonig common policy platform. the possibility of a brexit deal that covers financial services, even. get back to juliet. leslie, if i could come back to

you, another hurdle have got to be overcome. the final outcome in germany has got the voted for by the sdp. >> it was a very close vote. the social democrats are very worried that in the past forming a coalition has not been easy for them. . it will be good either, going back to the polls. it seems possible, depending on and even talks end up, likely that it will pass. europe needs germany back in the leadership role. it is strong, but remains complicated. >> i think it is fair to say iat in all honesty, and what

think from a market perspective, we think a deal was always going to be done, but it will probably be not the ideal deal. euro rose ahe bit. at what point does the euro bec high. neither frances keen on the strength] in the euro. i am sure there will be efforts to talk it down. but as always with the currency, it is not necessarily the strength of one, but the weakness of the other. particularly against the dollar.

the trump talked a lot about seeing a dollar. the dollar is fairly weak. euro will remain fairly robsust. francine: if we do have another grand coalition, what does it mean for the identity of these big parties? that is the compilation of those faces coming together. of aill see more are grassroot person come to the top. yeah.y are always they are always going to be problems with individuals looking at how that will play for them going forward and yes, what space does it create? a decidedly political spectrum is not an issue, but the bigger question is, can strike that

coalition? and germany will be feeling it now. the importance of moving forward. macron giving the interview, who and he is talking about a deal that covers financial services june 23, 2016. is there to much hope priced into sterling right now? >> yeah. follow this. if you inteare interest of , they had tok.

find him within the single market. this morning they are talking about a norwegian style deal. that is essentially signing of the eu without the same rights as being a number. a lot of the right wing of the conservative party. leslie -- but still sterling rises. deemed -- note the hardliners, but they were the ones that were sticking to their stance. britain gets nothing. if you want to be in the single market, you have to play by the rules. is the showing that within europe they are not as hard and as united as they were during the first phase of the negotiations. like he isinly looks extending his hand to britain.

, that will play across the other member states is hard to tell. what does that mean for financial services? we saw a little movement on the pound. macron seems to be offering a deal with the open market and a trade deal. how important is it for the success of brexit that financial services get safeguarded? peopleink that most within the financial services sector see this as vitally important. it isndon and the u.k. hard to come to some kind of conclusion. financial services, it is absolutely essential. is talkook now, there

of britain remaining within the single customs union. a lot of negative pushback. is that really brexit? but protection is crucial and access is crucial. mark: i am meeting with the house of lords this weekend fireworks are definitely expected. shares are lower today at ubs. we hear from sergio ermotti. this is bloomberg. ♪

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near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance" here in davos. -10 degrees. mark barton is in london.

mark, we have good coverage ahead from pretty specialdavos, interviews. angela merkel is showing up be believe president trump is still due to attend thursday and friday. we have president macron. we also have great panels, andking with jes staley, they will be talking about the future of finance. and friday we will be speaking -- i will be moderating a panel with ray dalia. talking about the future of monetary policy. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. back as much as $2.1 billion of stock over three years and merge it with two wealth management businesses. the zurich-based lender is starting a new dividend policy. ermotti will return

excess capital through purchases. >> we are able to continue and refinance our capital return policy. the fact that we are announcing an increase of our dividends by 8% and announced a share buyback program that will be partially be executed in 2018. russia have reaffirmed that they will clear theybal glut, signalling y are ready to cooperate beyond that. alexander novak told bloomberg that russia is prepared to cooperate with opec, even after the cuts expire. cooperation between our country is long serving. regardless of whether it is in terms of the markets, from other

areas. the cooperation is based on the agreements we have signed china back in 2016 in september. we have had a successful run. saudi authorities say they are likely to recover more than $100 billion in government officials have told bloomberg that talks at the ritz-carlton are expected to wrap up by the end of the month and those who do not reach deals will be referred to prosecutors. angela merkel has moved forward in her bid to form a fourth term government. that is as the suspected coalition partner agrees to follow the common platform. aimed at allow talks

resumption of the grand coalition to begin as soon as tomorrow. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. i am torsten muller-otvos. -- i am nejra cehic. ubs, buyinget to back to $.1 billion of stock over three years. the program will start in march and he plans to combine the b anks to wealth management businesses. he spoke to manus cranny in zurich. >> the fact that we are announcing an increase of our announcedy 8%, and we a share buyback program that will be executed in 2018. i would say it is the highlight of this announcement. mark: the share buyback is something that have asked you about. what is that? is that getting ahead of the u.s. tiers?

is it resetting the capital? >> it is difficult to be around all of our u.s. peers. capitalgned with our requirements and needs for growth. they got not very flexible. we are practicing an opportunity to complement it with share buybacks. when is this in response to. margin pressure? i don't think it is a rational response. i think it is a proactive move we do and the evolution within the last five or six years.

we went through changes and restructuring. limits growth, focusing on their own growth. and over the last couple years we have started this both internally and externally to communicate and have our business is working closer together. our products and services are working together. now we go to the next step of our growth. we have one chief operating

officer of operations. we will streamline, but this is a story of growth and how we can do better. to us to, it is up achieve our cost targets. matt: if i live in today's story, is this a ermotti reboot? >> it is a reboot of the operating system. how did the investment bank do? has been facing a very challenging year. think that i am very happy. 16% have located capital with about 20 billions.

very obnoxious job. . am pleased to see .o, we are able to compensate we've been talking but a neutral positive, not a neutral negative. in terms of payment, i think those payments are somehow performance and i do think this year we are going to confirm our policy that we paid for performance and balance we haven't remaining settle. -- we have been remaining

subtle. ear high,a gaining. >> if i look, i do see a continuation of the positive environment in the management. they look at the macro picture .nd there is a positive we are looking for momentum to continue. geopolitical risks are still there. we cannot just avoid them. before they are somehow impacted by them, this activity, this is d we aredoor for an managing market positions. francine: that was sergio

ermotti, speaking to manus cranny. that's get back to our chief financial advisor. it is clear a lot of investors were disappointed on the side of the share buyback. maybe targets were a little bit less ambitious. but is this a ubs concern? >> it would not say away from -- it would not stay away from them altogether. we are saying monetary policy tightening and rates, are led by the states backing up, that should be good for the banking sector. the problem for the european banks is -- they are probably out there changing the price.

there is the value european equity space. >> whether you want to choose value, i would be very cautious. hink we continue to think northern european equities are more attractive, though they are highly prized. as you said, the higher euros, cthe germans can cope, but can the scandinavians. mark: opec and russia

signal they are ready to cooperate beyond 2018. we hear exclusively from the saudi oil minister and his russian counterpart. this is bloomberg. ♪

mark: this is "bloomberg markillance," and im barton. crude is advancing afterwards third weekly slump, russia pledging supply cuts will continue, even as some banks predict the deal could and early. speaking exclusively to bloomberg, the saudi oil minister and alexander novak

said they would continue production cuts until the end of the year, signaling their readiness to cooperate beyond that. wenow we need to think, as approach the rebalancing by the end of 2018, what do we do beyond? my personal belief is that we need to extend the framework, but not necessarily the production. framework that we are formalizing, hopefully as the minimum keeping the contact between opec and non-opec. and you are on board with this continued operation? >> we would continue ofperating, regardless whether we need to extend or not.

mark: that was khalid al-falih -- was there any concern that production cuts would be filed in june? >> i think it doe eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee -- eeeee when you have the saudi oil minister sitting next to his main rival outside of opec, russia saying that they not only one to keep the cuts until the end of the year, "great to 2019, it is a strong signal to the market that they are on board with these cuts for the rest of the year and they are thinking about what they will do in 2019. mark: what sort of cooperation is -- they did

not give detail. they said they would give detail and have a roadmap of what that is. they said they wanted to continue these talks. you do not just want to meet at the main opec meeting twice a year. they want to do this one off. this is the monetary committee meeting. mabel have another meeting in april. they are in constant communication as well, the saudi oil minister and his russian counterpart. it says they also went out. they don't have details on what the cooperation would look like. basically, they are on board to cooperate with each other to what they say keeps balance in the oil market. amory harder, let's get back to

julian chillingworth. if people do not keep a watch on u.s. supply, because it will slump now that oil is at the prices. >> it puts a certain floor beneath it. the most important thing is global growth. up.nd has ticked strong companies consumer because of energy and that looks could be continue for the rest of the year. but this will bring some of the animals back inside. new can see the oil price stays around this level. the chart looks very good, to $100, but i cannot a charter. mark: commodities as the whole

is having good moments. is it reservations about it. what it what people say would say to you is, at the exactly anngs yeah geopolitical conference. japan, andope, growth might be slightly better than during the first apart. . julian chillingworth stays with us. up next, we take a look at the busy week we had, including the fed that stays with us at the world economic forum. i want to see them both take to that. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance and

politics. this is francine lacqua in p[aris. it will be in action-packed shows uprancine lacqua by tomorrow. with this frigid the bloomberg first word news. njer: sanofi has agreed to purchase seven point $6 billion. values the hemophilia drug maker bioverativ at $105 per share in a 60% premium over the closing price on friday. richment is offering 2.7 billion euros. event complete control over the finance business. richemont already owns about 50% of the unit.

more of the subsidiaries halted the stock from training pending .major announcements most of the subsidiaries halted the stock from trading pending major announcements. says theelecom's ceo fifth generation of wireless technology will be a revolution for his industry. tim cook bloomberg the company will be able to provide dedicated software platforms for the president. i will benefit from andrew sharing. he also hates the made in the u.s. and the positive impact the republican stepped inside.

it is not something that is just regulated. text reform. we have a monetary policy decision from the bank of japan. in on thursday, it is the ecb's term. t.at is what we call the recep you listening. i want to put a litter on the smb said before,

it is all about dollar weakness. it is unlikely the market will get to change in speeds. march,ll be more news in asking the sector about monetary titling. there could be a hint about it during the press conference. i wish i could divorce the inflation target. @yaho think he will muc closing why do i to it. there german bunds.

thank you so much. julian chillingworth, now bloomberg surveillance continues in the next hour. francine will be joining me here in dvaos. but also, we have an we see dollarout loss here. it could be the only one that matches bloomberg. this is bloomberg. it all started with a cardboard box. so, we designed the first mayor desk. in a just keep getting it. i have more energy and i get

more done. if you or a loved one mean in some time, let me know start the fdawarns. it caused serious injuries.

and even death. but i was also called investigation. 800, 862. quickbooks, backing you.

ubs shares fall 3%. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," zaand i'm francine lacqua alongside tom keene. it is quite a remarkable week. angela merkel shows up. macron, andident president trump thursday and friday. i thought yesterday was a little bit of. this year is totally different. led by the reckitt so far with president x xi. panels,have some great

at the center of that is .ubenstein and and reference the idea of a precious society during the financial crisis. . amazing.s it is amazing and it is still low. and that grounded it is the banner. monitoring this bond buying program and what that means for the world we have breakdowns.

a couple of other people. i looking forward to what that will bring. it will be interesting to look at the people living and working in the present world and getting their take on the formal central bank. fascinating is -- here is taylor riggs. is u.s. government shutdown now in its third day. members of congress failed to negotiate an end to the stalemate over the weekend. a bipartisan group of senators is looking at a plan to fund the government through february 8, along with the comments that take out the undocumented immigrants from being deported. vice president mike pence is meeting with the prime minister benjamin netanyahu.

reaeli-arab lawmakers are unhappy over the decision and recognizes the float. chancellor angela merkel is moving forward in her attempt to form a government for the fourth time. a familiar coalition ally, the storm raise on. the cold never bothered me anyway. germany has been dealing with that. you met opec and russia, signaling they could be a lengthy one. real ministry under is ready to give cooperating with opec, even after the cuts expire. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. shutdowns. government

has been extended into a third day after the senate failed to broker a deal which began on saturday. when the after midnight. after most government offices had stopped for the beginning. we will feel the impact as federal agencies close their doors today. joining us now is stephanie baker. what is the likelihood that they will result in a the end of this my colleagues in washington say they do not have the votes to pass. remain hard on this issue of immigration and the action has been around a group of moderate senators on both sides of the aisle, trying to strike the compromise and keep the government funded through february else. they are turning right to the legislation at jimmy's.

. >> how much of the talk will be on immigration? this is what democrats are pushing back against, right? >> right. and you saw senator chuck schumer was night. the republicans need to get on the same page that congressional republicans. trump told him he needed to negotiate with president trump. he cannot seem to figure out what the president wants that he met with the president on friday -- he agreed against democratic opposition to fund the wall in exchange for a deal on the streamers, these young immigrant who came to the united states.

rent yes go ahead. . he is basically never had a philosophical crisis like this. i read all the same particles and the experts with kevin cirilli. it is great work. to me it was the president and his advisers. we have to sort this out within the next 24 hours. is there any believe that general kelly and mr. miller can move their 1940's. you are right in pointing that out. this has been the main problem, trump has one thing and it is then pulled back by kelly and , who have a more hard

lined stance. we continue to see this flip-flop and division. it would be very hard to make a compromise. i wanted to make clear that we show robert mueller, the special councilmen. there are a handful of republican senators voted against the bill on friday.

there are a handful of moderate schumer saysaders it is a trump shutdown. think it is time for them to meet in the middle and strike a compromise. thank you, stephanie baker. joining us is the managing director and portfolio manager at pimco europe. always great to speak with you. what do you make of the shutdown? markets have taken this in stride. are they worried, or are they complacent because they think it mel not have fundamentals

not. but history would tell us that even if this does take a little bit longer than the video of hope. from a macro-economic perspective, they should not be a major hit to the u.s. economy. forhe shutdown continues htmaweeks, the nightmare

continues. re the challenges of the political gridlock start to have an effect. -- the challenges of the political gridlock. clearly, the longer it goes on and the more bad tempered it becomes, the bigger the risk that some of the markets will look to it. the great challenge of course, is the old political events. , but were very said things historically, they are looking -- the mel was the >> looking for the young dreamers. >> for the elite that have come i am04 economy since 2012, excited to go each year.

if you look at growth rates around the world, particularly within the developed markets, ight growth rates are two t numbers, which are the types of numbers i associate with the food. you have a boom in prices. recovery multi-your going on. it has been very slow and obviously, low interest rates support asset purchases. -- are we waiting for another invitation only. boom is not a word i would use. >> thank you so much. coming up, a conversation with william lee. the chief economist. and the optics on the present showing up here in snowy davos/

this is. -- this is bloomberg. ♪

taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance," and i'm taylor riggs. there was a huge deal today in the pharmaceutical industry as sanofi agreed to purchase $11.6 billion. sanofi is looking for new products to offset the prices of the new diabetes drug. it is a sign that even luxury retailing is looking more to the internet. richemont has agreed to take full control of the online retailer for $3.3 billion.

the brands include cartier, and that.dy owns half of ynatp wos also will merge into t wealth management businesses. the deutsche telecom ceo says the ultrafast fifth generation technology will be a revolution for his industry. he told bloomberg the company will be able to monetize five investments by finding dedicated software platforms. he also helds, the the government's for having a u.s., andident in the the possibility of a tax overhaul. >> it is a growing market. in the market.

we have the payback of your investment, something which is protectable. if there is an investigation into the operations. that your bloomberg business flash. tailoring, thank you. we welcome all of you to our first day here atdav davos. we look at the news flow and tomorrow i have a panel on the financial crisis. it is an exceptionally important banking panel later in the week. and in between all of that, the usual discussion with davos. let's slice that up now. ecb who is in a different

position than the fed. powell has to basica lly navigate the continued past of moderate to the withdrawal as soon as fire, winters straight rises. justcb needs to monetary stimulus. it is pretty close to full capacity. the europeans, they are still buying bonds. i misjudged on our trip to europe. that is how everybody is looking forward. does politics play into the

draghi calculus? or is that removed? the talent politics is one of the key events on the calendar for the year. reformscular with the to the electoral rules. the italian election risk has gone down. government isst relatively low. so, we would say, when we look at italy now, that we obviously have a great deal of interest that

italy has got -- along with the rest of europe -- has got the reasonable growth momentum going. point, whichy good is, we have a cyclical upswing going on at the moment. it is a response to low interest rates and pent up demand. we have attention from president macron and the relationship with angela merkel. whilst it would be good to see a reformist government in italy, i

-- hethere is a chance would destabilize. francine: coming up tomorrow from davos, the former deputy boe governor. 11:00 a.m. in london and 6:00 a.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

2018,ne: this is davos the first live day. francineof course, and tom for the week. we have great tales coming up, talking monetary policy, financial services and this is overshadowed by president trump, which is the america first agenda, if he shows up. tom: if he shows up. we haven' kevin cirilli on it. richard edelman will join us. we will go to him on radio tomorrow as well. but what a shift in national perspective on politics.

francine: let's go to the national perspective on brexit. the majority of british lawmakers believe remaining in the eu single market is compatible with honoring the results. let's get back with pimco's managing director. what does this mean for gilts and pound? ll, we have known for a while that the members of parliament have a pro-european stance. so, we know that./ they as members of parliament are there to deliver the brexit. we think if you look at where price,. asset markets you got the 10 year at 1.35, the same place it has been a step you have the treasury at 265. we think there is still a brexit

premium priced into u.k. rates. that manifests itself through a willthat interest rates stay lower here than would have been the case otherwise. we are back in two the u.k. rates market through europe. francine: thank you, mike. we will be talking the future of europe tomorrow from davos. that is at 7:30 a.m. in london. we also want to get to the the future holds for portugal's exports and tourism. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ is davos 2018. tom and francine in davos. lot of coverage ahead for the week.

wonderful panel last year with a mixture of bankers, economists, and people trying to come out of the financial crisis. we do that again. the leadership of barclays and citigroup will be with us. david stein was with me last year. and richards will be with us. i am thrilled she has agreed to be with us. you have one. i think you have the guest of the week. francine: if you look at monetary policy, a lot of folks will be on the fed. maybe we will get a little bit of a clue on what kind of personality profile he is looking for. my panel will be the day after the ecb decision. , thisak monetary policy end of the evening, what it means for the markets. also the deputy swedish central

bank governor. there is a lot to talk about. tom: there is. beside thet theme snow is the potential arrival of the president given the shutdown. francine: we haven't heard otherwise at least for now. let's go back to banks, ubs this morning announcing a share buyback. that was one of the most significant news we saw in the market. they announced a share buyback of up to 2 billion swiss francs. ceo and started by asking about the announcement of a dividend increase. >> the fact that we are announcing an increase of our dividend by 8%, and now a share buyback program that will partially be executed in 2018 is the highlight of this

announcement. isthis share buyback something many people have asked you about and the dividend. is that getting ahead of your u.s. peers? forhat resetting the agenda ubs as a capital giver? actually, if you look at the size of our share buyback, it is actually aligned with our capital requirements and our needs for growth. i would not really benchmark it in that way. are adding a very flexible capital return policy with an attractive dividend and the opportunity to complement it with a share buyback. are putting welcome management and wealth management america together. joint leadership. what is this in response to? is it in response to margin

pressure, efficiency? >> i don't think it is a reactive response to anything. i think it is a proactive move we do in evolution of the last five or six years. when those businesses went through changes, restructuring, they went through growth, focusing on their own growth path. in the last two years, we started internally and externally to communicate and make our ultra network clients -- net worth clients working closely together our products and services working together. we go to the next step of our growth, trying to take advantage of a unique global capital business we have so we can offer our clients the best. >> will you be able to take costs out of the business by putting them together? >> it is part of our plan to

have efficiencies in our businesses. this will help us. of course, we are going to streamline our support functions. we will have only one legal, one risk, one chief operating officer of operations. of this,treamline some but this is a story of growth, a story of how we can do better, and partially it is helping us to achieve our cost targets we have. francine: let's get straight to zero now -- zurich now. there is a little pressure on markets on ubs. more on thepecting share buyback and more on stronger and better targets. what can you tell me now about what ubs can do to convince shareholders to stick with them? >> they took to the conference car were -- call where gardner

was guiding the market. the consensus here is less wanting more. these targets are ambitious, real estate him and achievable, but there is something lacking today. normally when ubs comes out with targets, they are clear, defined, indefatigable. there is a lack of that clarity today. they have missed on a number of parts of the businesses, wealth management, banking. tom: i agree with that. that is not what i thought. it is not wishy-washy. it did not have that confidence we are used to. i remember where the leadership of ubs said they were going to expand in asia. their asiausual with vision right now, or will that be a european banking theme for

this year? >> not at all. i think he has clearly staked his claim in asia. europe will be about consolidation, about nonperforming loans. if i look to the u.s., i want to show you a chart. not only do they let me out of the office, i cleared my own btv. credit suisse is above book value. did today's strategy in sure -- ensure that he takes it above book value? the gap is narrowing. has he done enough to extend evaluation of his stock? tom: thank you so much. here is taylor riggs. taylor: more americans will start to feel the impact of that partial government shutdown today. many federal agencies will start

the work week by caring out closing plans. the shutdown began early saturday when lawmakers failed to pass a spending bill. a bipartisan group of senators is working on a plan to fund the government through february 8, which includes a promise to take up a bill to keep young undocumented immigrants from being deported. according to the washington post, defense secretary james mattis still hasn't signed off on the idea, the strategy to help afghan forces to fight the taliban. the u.s. currently has 14,000 troops in afghanistan. in saudi arabia, settlements from the crackdown on corruption could be more than $100 billion according to a senior saudi official. is still being held at the ritz carlton. it is a combination of cash, real estate stocks, and other assets. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. now that angela merkel has moved forward to form a fourth term government after the social democrats agreed to enter negotiations, coalition talks are expected to start as soon as tomorrow. joining us from athens, wolfango piccoli. he is cofounder of teneo intelligence. when you look at what germany has had to do to finally put together a government, are we confident this new coalition actually has the teeth to push through the growth we have seen in germany so far? wolfango: it is a tough one to say in the sense that if you look at the results yesterday, yes, they managed to get a positive result. afterey need the support

the talks, they need a vote of 440,000 members. our baseline is at the end of -- the, the pods of outlook will be positive. it will be very noisy in the weeks ahead. the outcome is not certain. the one thing to keep an eye on is whether schulz can get more concessions. francine: will they be strong enough to deal with brexit? what kind of composition will angela merkel have to even be a little more lenient to find a solution that benefits both sides? wolfango: in terms of brexit, i don't think the line will change. i think there is an area where they are no different policy views than merkel and their partners that today about

europe. in terms of monitoring whether or not we will get -- it is about domestic issues. it is about health, spending, and labor issues. discussion ina europe about immigration, migration, the scale of refugees far exceeding that of the u.s. i would like your perspective on the immigration debate in the united states. what are the compares and contrasts there? wolfango: i think the ofmonality is that the issue migration has been weaponize by politicians in different ways. when you look at the debate in the u k, it is different from the one in germany, and it is certainly different from the one in the u.s. we are talking about different kinds of migrants, different

numbers, different timelines. the issue of immigration is a huge challenge. it is a challenge in the u.s. now. it has not disappeared from your. -- europe. it is one mainstream parties are struggling to deal with, and it is well-suited for populist parties to score some points. the issue is not disappearing anytime soon, and it is very difficult for individual countries and europe to deal with individually. tom: thank you very much. wolfango piccoli sticking with us. moon, our digital properties worldwide. bloomberg radio, a terrific morning briefing. stay with us from davos. ♪

♪ tom: good morning, everyone. from the world economic forum in douglas, the first day -- davos, the first day begins here. clearly, the world will change in davos. president trump is scheduled to be here thursday with important meetings on friday. he will be staying in a hotel removed the rest of the promenade. --believe he is staying francine: he may take your hotel room. who knows? tom: wolfango piccoli with us

from teneo, out of athens this morning. we are trying to ease into our discussion about the president. nevertheless, there it is. do you have any sense of his international relations? do you have a post-american world theory? wolfango: wow. that is quite a question. difficult to answer that in a short time. i think if we want to connect it to davos, itsito is an interesting one. we have globalization and his heading to davos. i don't think there will be much on the policy side. i think the u.s. is becoming more inward looking. is a guy goingar head-to-head with these

tendencies, and that is macron, oculist's andging and pushingopulists for more european integration. tom: that is right where i wanted to go. mr. macron has been running up miles on air france like nobody, single-handedly putting them into profit this quarter. what is that theory of europe international relations? you a yearf i take ago, we were very concerned. we had brexit, the u.s. presidential elections, and a wave of elections where the populists were supposed to do well. a year later, europe has not only overcome these challenges, and there is a feeling that there is a further push for new reforms.

the leader of this change is actually macron. if there is an area we will see progress in terms of integration, it is defense, security, foreign policy. rkel, something macron, me and the other leaders can sell to the public. there is a feeling you don't rely on the u.s. as much as you did in the past. francine: what if 2018 was the resurgence of a more populist, anti-globalization movement? i don't know if that is spurred by president trump or someone else, but what does that mean for the rest of the world? wolfango: it is a challenge that is there. it is not going to disappear anytime soon. it is driven by also to drivers from inequality to cultural sensitivity to immigration. the electoral system, the party system will make this issue more

or less salient. it is certainly with us. it is not going to disappear anytime soon. that could involve convocations in terms of cutting these multi country deals at the end of the day. francine: thank you very much. wolfango piccoli of teneo intelligence. coming up, we have more from the world economic forum, davos 2018. we will bring you exclusive interviews, conversations from the middle east to the asian development bank. all that and more to come here on bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ good morning, everyone. it is tom and francine live from davos. amonge a full day here the sleek and the snow. -- sleet and the snow. speaking exclusively to bloomberg, the russian oil

minister and the saudi counterpart. >> we need to think about as we approach rebalancing at the end beyond that, we do extendk is we need to the framework, but not necessarily the production limits. it is the framework we are formalizing at the minimum, keeping the contacts between way and non-opec, finding a to work quickly and not a month a year of deliberations. >> are you on board? what kind of mechanisms do you think need to be in place? >> we would continue cooperating regardless of whether we need to extend the cuts or not because that would help both consumers and producers. oilcine: that was the saudi minister and the russian energy minister speaking in an

exclusive interview with bloomberg. i have to say the irony of you being in the sun and us being in the snow is not lost on us. great job on the interview. they said, both ministers, they will continue this alliance beyond 2018. will they work closer together to ensure the curtailing of supply? >> good morning. i have seen the pictures of davos, and the juxtaposition is quite funny. it is quite hot here. did say that-falih by the end of 2019, beginning of 2019, he believes the market will be balanced. they left the door open for more cuts. they have not ruled out more cuts. likely, they are talking about some sort of framework. what they really wanted to

communicate together is that they are going to continue to communicate. the next big meeting is in riyadh in april. --se two actually quite talk talk quite regularly. we are not exactly sure what this means in terms of cooperation, but they are trying to signal to the market that russiad its main rival are in it for the long road. francine: i am looking at a couple of notes, energy aspects, they are not looking at $100 a barrel oil. as soon as the price surges, demand gets hurt. >> they won't talk about price at all. i am sure some of these ministers would love $100 of oil. they brushed off the idea of shell being a major -- shale

being a major holder. off mexico. explosive u.s. growth is really kind of putting a dark cloud ahead of this meeting. this idea of explosive growth out of the u.s. adding to more supply is definitely on their mind, but i don't think we barrel oil.0 a that would be a pretty intense year. francine: thank you for joining us. we have great coverage ahead in davos this week. summer, ie singing ♪ wish for summer ♪ michael corbat, david rubenstein. tom: ♪ isolation francine: the intro to the panel will be done singing.

what are you looking forward to? tom: my panel is called let it go, let it go. looking forward to that. thrilled you are with us. stay with us, economics, financial investment, and the visit of president trump to dallas this thursday and friday. francine: i am looking forward to my panel on monetary policy friday. you know what, for once the world economic forum has it spot on. they talk about cooperation in a fractured world. when you look at the world leaders coming here, that is exactly what we will be talking about. institute lee, milken chief economist. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: there is simply paralysis in washington. sunday was a day for blame.

monday now for what? does president trump have a policy to end the shutdown? kevin cirilli is on capitol hill. the ecb shows their cards on thursday. mario draghi repairs a blizzard of silence. records, record snow and anticipation. the americans are coming, the americans are coming. everyone, from davos, switzerland. the world economic forum. francine is looking at me. francine: not bad. the americans are coming. tom: that is like the russians are coming. thursday. francine: thursday, we expect the americans. this is not from the trump administration, but people are saying if the shutdown continues, can he really afford

to come to davos? tom: absolutely critical, what will be his message? there was mystery before this weekend, and now even greater mystery. francine: and america first kind of speech, but maybe now that changes. we have two panels. first of all is tom's panel tomorrow, the future of finance and fintech. rubenstein with me last year. mr. corvette. fromn important voice china on the economics of china. thrilled that anne richards will be with us. francine: i'm really looking forward to it because it is all about regulation. it will be interesting to see if the chinese regulators are ready for some sort of meltdown. and it is interesting

because your group has china has their top risk -- as their top risk for 2018. that is my friday panel on monetary policy, the end of the easy money and what that means for the market and on some of the mandates for the central bank. that is my panel. tom: a tumultuous weekend in washington to say the least. with your morning briefing, taylor riggs. taylor: the u.s. government shutdown is now in its third day. tobers of congress failed negotiate an end to the stalemate over the weekend. a bipartisan group of senators is looking at a plan to fund the government through february 8 along with promised to take up a bill on young undocumented immigrants.

pence is innt mike israel, where he is meeting with benjamin netanyahu and addressing parliament. palestinian lawmakers are boycotting the meeting. angela merkel is moving forward with her attempts to form the government for a fourth time. a familiar coalition with the social democratic party has decided to put aside misgivings and enter talks on a policy platform. opec and russia are signaling their alliance may be a lengthy one. they reaffirmed a will keep oil production cuts in place through the end of the year. the oil russian minister says he is ready to continue cooperating with opec even after the cuts expire. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs.

this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. joining us from washington, everyone else in washington is sleepless from the shutdown. he is sleepless over the minnesota vikings. kevin, congratulations to the eagles. super bowl bound. give us an update on the shutdown. what is going to happen at 10:00 a.m. today? what is going to happen over lunch? kevin: day three of the government shutdown. lawmakers waking up after a long weekend and a political stalemate of sorts. republicans criticizing the president in suggesting over the weekend that they need some type of new negotiation strategy, most notably senator lindsey graham from south carolina going so far to say that as long as stephen miller is in charge of the immigration talks, nothing

is going to get done. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell wants to hold a vote at the end of this morning, but it is very uncertain right now that he does not have enough democratic support to move forward. tom: i like how you go to the back and forth within the white house. i loved air cantors -- eric c antor's essay in the washington post. this is something mr. surreally has already reviewed. the root causes of today's shutdown are the same as they were in 2013, a desire to govern in a reality that doesn't exist. elements oficant both parties think they can govern in a world where they get everything they want without agreeing to some of the priorities of the other side. that speaks of residential leadership. where is it? the president has yet to find the type of negotiation

strategy that would reopen the government, particularly on immigration. this white house has said they are watching developments day by day, and it could impact his decision on whether or not he goes to davos this week. imagine that, he would land in air force one, and the government would still be shutdown. the last time i covered a government shutdown in 2013, it went on for quite some time. the frustration was palpable. the republicans really did take the brunt of that blame. it was led by senator ted cruz. both immigrants and republicans are staring each other down and don't have an impetus to negotiate right now. --a result, it hasn't really it has been a bit more content, the pressure. the longer this goes on, the closer we get to the state of the union address, that is when the pressure is really going to bubble over. francine: who will link first? -- blink first?

are we talking to or three weeks, or does the president have to give something to come to davos? kevin: no one i spoke with over the weekend has any idea how long this will last, which is remarkable. during the last shutdown, you had some idea of the time frame. in terms of who is going to blink first, on the issue of which support they need to get, they need to get it from centrist immigrants, red state democrats. joe manchin and heidi heitkamp, these are the most likely to blink first. right now, they are holding strong with democrats. tom: as we look at this, this the fact that it is an original american policy, there have been many more shutdowns over time. why is this one different?

kevin: this one is different because neither side really has an impetus to negotiate with each other. that is remarkable. usually, you have -- in terms of the blame game, republicans blame democrats, democrats blame republicans. it is incredibly polarized, even more than 2013. we should note that the number one employer in washington, d.c., is the government. there are folks that are not going to get paychecks until the government is reopened. that is remarkable. francine: actually, that is exactly what i wanted to ask. at what point do american citizens say enough is enough? this is two parties going at each other's throats, but they want to be paid, and they want their government to work. kevin: independent voters will look at this and say this is completely absurd. if a corporation shut down and did not pay its employees until

the backend, people would be up in arms. the notion that the government, republicans or democrats, the longer this goes on, the more it will frustrate folks. national park services is closed. national security will always be protected. some of these folks that need these paychecks, that is when the prize are going to grow -- cries are going to grow incredibly loud. tom: you are so good at the inside baseball on the white house. who is pushing against general kelly and stephen miller within the president's team? who is on the other side of the immigration debate? kevin: jared kushner. on the flip side of that, i would suggest that perhaps general kelly and stephen miller are not as linked as some have suggested. i think stephen miller has shown political savviness in terms of balancing the walk between steve bannon and president trump.

of course, he survived the ousting of steve bannon. let's see if he will survive this. there is mounting pressure on capitol hill. republicans don't like dealing with stephen miller. tom: thank you. i made a joke about the eagles. our entire team on capitol hill really working 24/7 through the weekend. we look for their coverage all this week on the shutdown in washington. bloomberg, a conversation with larry summers. his essay in the washington post was quite important. we will feature that in a bit. stay with us. from davos, switzerland, this is bloomberg. ♪

taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am taylor riggs. there is a huge deal today in bioverativ has, been bought. sanofi is looking for new products for its best-selling diabetes drug. takemont has agreed to full control of metaphor day. -- otto porter -- net- a-porter. backwiss bank will buy $2.1 billion of stock over the next three years.

it will merge its wealth management is this is. the ultra fast fifth-generation of wireless boon fory will be a t-mobile. it will benefit from revenue sharing agreements. he held the benefits of having a major presence in the u.s. and the positive impact of the republican tax overhaul. >> being in the u.s. is great benefit. it is a growing market. where the payback of your investments is something which is predictable. it is not something regulated as it is here. with the tax reform, we are even getting tailwinds here, so it is

supporting our investments. taylor: that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: thanks so much. this is our first day at davos. it is an interesting day. always kind of a goofy day at the world economic forum because most people are not here yet. they are heading up the mountain. this year was record snowfall. a lot are struggling with that. the roads are quite slick. it is good to talk about other things. who worked for years at citigroup and imf, and now with the milken institute. have you boosted your gdp enthusiasm over the tax reform bill? -- ttle bit bill: a little bit. we had talked about why productivity is so low. with this tax form bill, we have

made some massive shift in the intentions for that incentives for investment. is thing we care a lot about capital structure. how eufinance things. if you finance with a lot of , they wantholders their money back. you better invest in safe stuff. that means we have their incremental investments. if iquity guys are saying am a shareholder, i want you to swing for the investments. that is what i think is missing because we have both said we see technological progress everywhere except in productivity. the quality of investment has not been boosting activity. i think this is going to help us get there. tom: i will go with that, but what you have been so good at over the years, and this goes

back to your work at international monetary fund, the distributed nature of those gains. it is a huge theme at the world economic forum. they want to do a lot of touchy-feely stuff on inequality. when do they see trickle-down william lee economics? bill: this is trickle up. they need that so the labor in the workforce can get real productivity gains. you will not get that if firms invest in old-style productivity gains. you need the technology to really take hold, and that is not going to happen unless the equity owners really push the managers. where is the money coming from? it is coming from debt. you look at the private equity world, the return is so high because they have the correct management incentives. francine: at the same time, a lot of the tax reform got a lot of flack saying it is going to be dividend buybacks.

it is helping with animal spirits at the margins. bill: the dividend by backstory is because a lot of the money that has been raised so far is because of incremental debt financing. around the world, it has become a problem. that is part of the incentives for white managers need to increase -- why managers need to increase productivity. tom: looking at the next of productivity in the final call for the end of the year and 2018, when does labor get its gain? that is frankly how the president got elected. when does labor get its fair share? bill: you are right. labor does not have the right set of skills to become elementary to the new technology out there. there is not enough education, training, quality human capital. most of the job gains in the

last decade have been in hospitality, retail, and health care. those are the lowest paying sectors of the economy. those are where incremental investment has been expanding the job gains. tom: we will continue with william lee. these are issues whether you are in switzerland or america. we will address these issues tomorrow with the chief economist of the international monetary fund out of berkeley. truly one of our giants on international economics. look for that tomorrow. atncine lacqua and tom keene the world economic forum. stay with us all this week. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: good morning. live from the world economic forum 2018, this is tom and francine in davos. willday, the bank of japan deliver monetary policy decisions this week. while there is no expectation of the change in policy, the market will be keeping a close eye on forward guidance. bill lee is still with us. when you look at the major central banks around the world, i would suggest the ecb that -- is most likely to spring surprises. how do you think mario draghi

will play it? bill: it is where the growth translates to inflation. the fact that everyone is surprised on the outside for growth in europe is where the source of surprised is going to come from for policy as well. if they can find some means of translating that growth to higher inflation, you will see the ecb act quickly. that is the signal they have been waiting for for years. the guidance they are giving us is getting us ready for that move. francine: if they act quickly and take the market by surprise, what does that mean for german government bonds? could there be a schism because we were not expecting it to or three months ago? of allhe mantra central bankers is not to shock the markets. this primitive move on the part of the markets catches everyone by surprise.

everyone is waiting for the signal. the one thing central banks around the world, the ecb in particular is they do not want to surprise the markets. tom: the signal last year was there was no inflation led by governor carney. there was that whisper we cannot go because. why one that continue -- won't that continue into this year? bill: it is the ultimate faith in the phillips curve kicking in. one thing they are missing is the supply side, the new technology that is keeping supply-side from raising prices. are seeing his profit margins improved at the same time prices aren't going up. is it productivity we are not measuring work wages not going up? i think it is a combination of the two, which is not going up with higher inflation, and

healthy gains are not being measured. tom: good to have you with us among the government shutdown. dr. lee joins us from our studios in washington. we need a briefing in davos on international economics. my panel kicking off tomorrow, francine's panel on friday. getting the european perspective. we will get a really good perspective. thrilled to have mr. attias with us. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ morning. tom keene and francine lacqua from davos. lots to talk about.

two panels in a moment, but the basic theme is the german e, someon debat politics, and mr. trump's visit. sang the theresa may prime minister -- saying the prime minister and donald trump will meet here. arrive on thursday and give a speech on friday. tom: they can't meet in the piano bar. they have to go to that pizza parlor two doors down. that would be the place to meet. tom: or maybe on top of the mountain? erik schatzker was skiing this afternoon. francine: in terms of the panels

, i'm looking forward to your financial panel tomorrow. you are speaking to jes staley. success last year. it is 300 people in the room. jeff stanley with us. ken rogoff with us last year. and richards will join us. richards were join us. it will be interesting. i sent you a story about the cases that could get regulators concerned about deleveraging. on friday, i have a good panel on monetary policy. will do a couple of hours before the president speaks and we will focus on what cheap money means for the markets and bankers mandates.

let's get straight to first word news. more americans will feel the impact of that partial government shutdown today. many federal agencies will carry out work closing plans. bipartisan group of senators is looking at a plan to fund the government through february 8, including a promise to take up the bill to keep young, undocumented immigrants from being deported. the u.s. could send 1000 troops to afghanistan this spring. jim mattis has not signed off on the idea. strategyt of a larger to help afghan forces fight the taliban and. the u.s. has 14,000 troops in afghanistan. it will be new england versus philadelphia in the super bowl. tom brady threw two touchdowns to aad new england

come-from-behind win over jacksonville in the afc championship. philadelphia pounded minnesota to win the title. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. francine: joining us from new york is one of the makers of davos. he was organizing the accommodation, and is now global .vent management founder we did hear from a spokesperson of theresa may that theresa may will meet with the president. , want to steal from tom keene he has a theme saying maybe president trump makes davos great again.

you were putting this thing together. if the president shows up and we have a populist, doesn't it give life to the forum? edition --r's additions look important, so in more important figures. president macron is coming back as a head of state and will be speaking wednesday. he is hosting 150 global ceos. i think it will be the first big speech. people will be disappointed to not see president trump. maybe he is coming to create a surprise. the delegation he is supposed to bring is a big delegation you'd i think he has -- delegation. i think he has an agenda, may a political agenda about the many middle east

leaders are and davos, the king he willn, and probably deliver a strong message to the elite. who -- probably how america is great again. francine: you spoke like a true frenchman, but we are seeing president macron spearheading the statesman, selling france abroad, showing the old glory of the french republic. will he deliver on reforms at home in france? >> president macron has an choose which is to france as a first is the nation for direct investment, and he is very aggressive on that point. he will be using all the opportunities, including davos, to attract investors to but he is not only one.

you have in davos so many dontries using the platform have a big dialogue with global ceos. it is the main priority of all the world leaders today, to bring investors, and davos is the place where you can approach these global ceos and have face-to-face conversation with them. tom: we are thrilled to have you with us. i want to go back when you were an entry-level young buck with ibm decades and decades ago, and that goes to the nostalgia of another time. there is no question president trump harkins and yearns for america from another time and place. lites look for to another time or something new? >> we have to look forward. about thenostalgia

davos of 20 years ago, smaller, more intimate, having deep conversations and talking about the business. today the political agenda has an influence on the business and economic agenda, but they have no choice. they have to look forward and definitely need to see how they can be a global good, positive in the fractured world, which is a fact. the ambition is may be too optimistic because we need to policyhese issues of come of good governance, of transparency. they are on the table for the past 10 years. wonderful to have this great expertise in academics with us. in our washington studios today, milken lee of the mil

institute is with us. heretine lagarde will come , and she needs a new international relations for this unveiling.- what is this new international relations to come? >> we are talking about managing globalization in a world of fractured politics and fractured economies. globalization has to redefine itself. the internationals are all there. having trump come is the best thing the president can arrange because he's showing he is doing policy while the children are doing politics. i hope trump will introduce what new globalization will be, taking care of the people who lost out through technology and

globalization. that is the new face of internationalism that i hope trump comes out with. it's not so much a fractured world, but how to manage and navigate transitions. are we still confusing globalization and the advancement of technology, that robots will takeover over a lot of the jobs we do today, but how we rigid kate -- re-educate face that challenge? >> one of the things that technology needs is to be in the trade process. trade makes people do the best process possible. you need to trade it to be as spearhead technology. is so intimately involved with technological progress, the displacements have to be managed. that is where domestic politics is so important, to make sure you are taking care of those missing out. that is where all the

internationals have failed. that's where the nationalist would say internationalism is dead. it is not dead. it has to reform itself. tom: this has been a wonderful conversation. we need to continue this. richard with global event management with decades of work in making good meetings and discussions happen. that is something we hope for this week and davos. after the incredible weekend in washington, your morning three moon and, robert karen moscow coast-to-coast, and sannew york, six for francisco. stay with us. it is snowing. ♪

buying juneaun is therapeutics for $87 a share. is saying it would vance its leadership in cellular and immunotherapy. fi will buy a drugmaker for $11.6 billion. it is looking for new products to offset declines for its diabetes drug. orange arelekom and

said to have held merger talks last year, but have now ended. to $.1 billionck of stock over three years and merge its wealth management is this is. it is also starting a new dividend policy. towe are able to continue refine and retool our capital return policy. the fact we are announcing in a shared by 8% and buyback program that will be partially executed in 2018. that is your bloomberg business flash. here,omething of a theme

the acclaimed michael porter of harvard university talking about a new change in people's timelines. becoming the plan new three-year plan, and maybe the three your plan has become let's just survive and get to the next bonus for executives. milken lee is with the institute. i look at labor. far more important are the to getes on management it done and get it done now. are we killing ourselves with this new short-term is iism? >> yes, it has come about more and more because companies rely on debt financing. you have to pay the stuff back.

incentivized to have a longer view, and equity , buts view, get me profits later on, and i'm willing to wait if you do the right investments. we need to get rid of the short-termism. the back to the wall management style of overloaded with debt does not work. it just gets you incrementalism. that dynamicsng and economics to the business world. become a newas short-termism. europe does it better than the united states. our europe corporate leaders becoming more anglo-american, like those in america, worried

about short, short results? , they are living in this global world where they are focused on results, profit and losses, and acting if they were leading startups. they need quick wins and to become more global. they have the ambition to build international brands, and it is not about becoming more anglo-saxon. it is becoming global players, like the chinese and indian big global companies. iny also want to be different territories than their national markets. , evenre looking to africa with ambition to latin america, and many to the middle east and the gulf countries. we are living in the global world. the first player in the global world are these global ceos. francine: if you look at the

short-termism, how do you step away to counter the effects of populism? feed the far right or far left populists? >> if policies are not taking don't gainse who anything from the technological change we have had, then we are forcing politicians and executives into short termism. one of the things we are missing is this notion we can actually build a more productive economy if you allow investments to digest themselves. one of the things i hope we will mo is have these incrementalis disappear when you don't have a lot of debt load at companies. francine: richard, you speak to a lot of ceos. what do they ask of you? more?y want to be seen

do they want to be seen with different viewers? >> they want three things, to be connected to the next generation, to the use, very important point. number two, they want to have access to new markets. they want access to these emerging economies, and they don't want to miss the train. the europeans, even asians, don't want to be beat by the american companies and ceos. and number three, sometimes they want a voice, that it is not the priority. davos, they come because it is important for them. when i was asking many global ceos why you are here 20 years ago come in the answer was it is an important place to be and in one week i can meet all potential clients, partners, shareholders in a few hours.

i will meet much more people than i will in 1-2 years, so they want to be connected and have a voice, a voice to explain how the strategy of the company is moving ahead, how it is changing come because sometimes shareholders and the media are hearing them, are thinking of them, are talking about them. i think it is very important. the media world in davos is very important. it is an opportunity for all the ceos to be connected to you are gettingause you it through twitter and other social media. francine: thank you. a lot of people do want voices. politicians do want a voice. that is why they speak to "bloomberg surveillance." this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: what was the being crosby song from "white christmas?"

you know come snow. record snow. like three feet kind of snow. francine: we are ready. we have our guests, charts. no one will take us off the air. radio,r those of you on i had tears in my eyes as we came up the valley today. best chartsingle about the great unspoken of davos, using the markets. william lee of milken institute is with us. the u.s. dollar last year surprising all, trump strength, no dollar weakness. recently there has been further dollar weakness. is that an important issue for the president at davos? >> absolutely. at thent trump looks dollar as a rating for his presidency.

the fact there is a weak dollar means he will worry a lot. europe has taken a lot of the possibilitynd the of ecb revising policy is probably behind it and surprising growth. of the marketssm is coming home here. they're looking at policy now and not the next few years. tom: that folds into thursday and mr. draghi's conundrum. francine: i like your chart. the last 12 months, it was the only currency that slid amongst 17 peers. ubs, credit suisse, and both expect dollar higher, so this is one of the calls that got the markets on the back foot. tom: it goes into the element trust barometer, this wonderful of massive polarity. we will leave it there. thank you so much for starting

this off here at the world economic forms meeting. you to allsay thank of our guests. tomorrow, my lead conversation on economics. here, we think, tomorrow. francine: what do you mean, you think? i will be here on set at 7:00 a.m. sharp. tom: the "bloomberg surveillance" thing is here with the thing under his chin. this is bloomberg. ♪ we use our phones and computers the same way these days.

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the government enters the third day of shutdown and markets react, not yet. four months after general elections, angela merkel may be getting her coalition government. a new chapter for ubs. , butill buy back stock shares take a hit on disappointing results. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." welcome. i want to get you caught up on where markets are trading. s&p futures are down, as well as , and the euro00 gaining against the dollar. i want to bring you some news that did cross this morning. for $5.56ing validus million cash, validus