anna: good morning from london. manus: here are today's top stories. the u.s. grants canada and mexico and initial exemption on steel and aluminum provided they reach a new nafta deal. >> nafta is an old agreement. we have very important trading relationships with canada and mexico, but the president wants to look at this agreement and wants a better deal for american workers and american companies. manus: relief rally, stocks gain and the dollar steadies as worries about protectionism fate. anna: the ecb delivers its

policy decision today but with weak inflation and a possible trade war looming, does mario draghi have good reason to play safe? we are live in frankfurt. ♪ anna: welcome to the program, everybody. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's get straight to the breaking news. this comes from merck, the german base drug and liquid crystal maker. is broadlyd ebitda in line with the estimate of 4.4 billion. they see a slight percentage and in 2018 adjusted ebitda the revenue number looks to be in line with estimates. those are the numbers coming through from merck this morning. this is a business that has been

under pressure on a number. where theyof areas are coming under pressure, experimental immune therapy they are -- therapy they are divine -- also reports suggest that not be interested anymore, so that's putting a headwind on things. also on the electrical side of things, the chinese market for liquid crystal, they lost a bit of market share to some of their competitors there. we'll try to get up-to-date information on some of those competitive threats. and the headwinds of 2017 are expected to continue. that's the message about looking forward. rising demonstrably for this business. it's about the specialty chemical side of the business. ebit,ms of the full year

that comes in a 928 million euros. guidance, this is about the outflow -- about the outlook. guidanceonfirming 2020 on track to separate the specialty chemical business. that's probably about it 10 billion euro size separation. they are going for separation on track for april. you have growth in latin america in terms of the architectural story there versus a little bit of the softness here in europe. when it ran the numbers and find what's going on with akzo. the numbers coming through

this morning, let's get to those. above theadjusted estimate of 15.6. their listing their medium-term return on equity target to 15% to 18-20%. so set of positive news lines coming through from standard bank. we'll keep an eye on that when it opens up in the johannesburg session. let's talk about what's going on overnight. the sentiment in markets has changed. we saw the s&p staging decent rally and recoup some of the losses it made in the early part of the session concerns around gary cohn leaving and who that leaves in charge of the white house. we saw some gains being made. the has been picked up in asian session, a by .7%. it raises some interesting questions, talking about terrorists being imposed --

talking about terrorists -- tariffs being imposed. for the moment we see synchronicity. we put in the euro against the dollar, pretty flat. his is one of mario draghi's headaches? the tighter conditions rating across the atlantic and a looming trade war. most of the oil is pretty stable now but it fell 2% yesterday. in terms of the tone and intonation, who do you trust? traders iners, bond the emerging market space? emerging-market bond traders are basically saying the premium we want to hold corporate date is

falling. -- whate trade war is we know so far? corporate bonds in developing markets are unchanged if not declining. the premium they want over treasuries which is the benchmark for pricing is actually falling. you have the exemptions coming through for canada and mexico. actuallyy, the chinese have the upper hand in terms of the chips. 25% of the chipset come at the united states go into china. in terms of china's demand for chips, that is barely 4%. the debt to cash flows in emerging markets and corporate isds is falling, and ebitda

the best since 2011. who would you put your money on? anna: no comment, it's like picking children. the ceo will join us later in the program. support services, contracting out business, will speak to him in an interview and be joined by mark wilson. they will report numbers and will get his take on where we are with global market concerns around trade and if that keeps them up at night. let's get the bloomberg first word -- worse word news update. trade tensions escalate, imports rose to 6.3%, which was below forecast. that left a trade surplus of almost $34 billion against an estimate of a $6 billion deficit. the foreign minister has warned of a justified and necessary to startto any efforts

a trade war. for japan's economy, it grew better than expected. the japanese economy has grown for eight straight quarters as global demand for exports fueled record corporate profits and rising business investments. economists are warning the run of its -- longest run of expansion of three decades could end in the white house is said to be weighing a broad list of contenders to succeed gary cohn as donald trump's top economic advisor. according to people for no your with the matter, names include jim donovan, council of economic advisers chairman kevin hassett and traded visor eater navarro. -- peter navarro. british police have set a critically ill woman -- former russians find his daughter were victims of a nerve agent, increasing the probability that

their attack was the work of another -- they were found unconscious on the bench sunday. a police officer who was early on the scene is also in the hospital in serious condition. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. stories on there bloomberg at top . asian markets took the knee-jerk reaction to what you'd seen in u.s. futures but as we saw the stabilization come through on wall street overnight we've had a positive session, regrouping yesterday's losses. the nikkei closing 5.5% higher. volatility on this market has been incredibly the highest in two years this week. the asx 200 finishing higher by .7%. the talks about north korea and the south moving forward have also lifted the cost be. -- have lifted the kospi.

when mcallen focus after the parent is said to be increasing its dividend -- we've seen some weakness and a lot of construction players in japan after chinese industry data showed drop in event in february due to the timing of the lunar new year. ,anus: thank you very much juliette saly in singapore. canada and mexico will be excluded from the steel and aluminum tariffs until after nafta negotiation's conclude. while white house trade advisor peter navarro said they would lose the exception if they fail to reach an updated nafta agreement with the united states. anna: and treasury secretary steven mnuchin said the president wants a better deal with all its trading partners. >> nafta is an old agreement.

we have very important trading relationships with canada and mexico, but the president wants to look at this agreement and wants a better deal for american workers and american companies. that's what this is all about, more fair and balanced trade. jim, let's bring it straight to you. in terms of the clarity, which countries are going to be subject to the tariffs? i just wonder to what extent was at all part of the game theory, or is it an olive branch, listening to objections from the gop. >> probably not, because the gop is not talking about canada and mexico, they are talking about the principles of free trade and how that can hurt the economy. what he is doing, if anyone can find rhyme or reason in how he approaches economic policy, i am all ears.

but it is tied to domestic politics, this is an important election in pennsylvania which is heavily still country. at the same time, it's a good better point to want a deal for american workers. anna: we've had a lot of response firm europe and a lot of objections in and maybe for mexico. we have heard a little bit from the chinese. saying thehina were chinese are not jumping in on this just jet. now we heard a little bit that they have the right to respond as they want to. >> that is the risk, isn't it? you go back to the great recession of 2009, the very the one thinging, everybody agreed on was how critical it was to maintain open and free international trade to prevent the global economy from falling into the ditch.

that is how the rest of the world most economic policymakers see things. manus: it's interesting you bring that up. bea trade war is going to spectacular, and they reflect back on the 1930's. the practicality of response from china. china may not go for global trade tariffs, and they go to squeeze apple. it's about the realistic response from china that we should be more concerned about. >> that is absolutely right. this is a political game, it doesn't make any sort of political cents. one fears that the unilateral trump strategy has opened up three more fronts between the globalist and nationalist in the white house, between the white house and congress, and between the u.s. and the rest of the world. so it is very difficult to have

a war on three fronts. the fact that we have some backpedaling now and he's looking to extract some short-term political gains before the economic costs start to dilute that. but there's the broader theme, where at the tail end of the globalization story. it's about how others reciprocate. this comes to the third approach , the trump plan -- brand of political currency. i wonder whether the escalation might come to some for of financial means because frankly, it would take very little but send a strong message home if there were to be reduced for demand for the treasuries options next week. it doesn't mean up little consensus in foreign parliament.

it's cheap and quick and sends a strong message. is that a likely response that would require some coordination or is it just something that might happen because of concerns around white house policy? greg if china wanted to exercise their muscle, -- probablye only person gets hurt is themselves. >> what we've seen is that with respect to addressing donald trump, it's a short-term strategy. policy, it's a far cry from the message that america first doesn't have to mean america alone.

we've known -- have moved on from the conversation but to outline extent of the imbalance relationship between the night eggs in china on trade, this is where this comes from, what has place, even to this if economists disagree on what effect this will have here. calling the gop is not for concessions for canada or mexico, but there are decisions and some have been suggesting , the negativees ,ffects it could have on allies which is an interesting device, given where this came from in the first place. >> that is the rationale he took in terms of imposing tariffs or announcing his intent to impose these tariffs. nationalsed on security considerations. after just point out the u.s. trade gap with china is not what drove trump to take any sort of action here. he has been talking about the

u.s. trade deficit going back to the 1980's. starting with japan, specifically. so it has been one of his few constants, this protectionist -- anna: but now he doesn't like china or germany on this front. >> anyone who has a trade surplus with the u.s. coming seems to think is taking advantage. deficithis is the trade , what is trying to do with china is not going to change the speed dial in terms of this debt. it's the biggest since 2008. it's up by 5% last year. even the softer dollar has not change the complexion of this. it's an introspective moment, if you look at the s&p 500, we had a wobble. in february, every sellout list 30.61.arget of

there's more buying recommendations out there. the markets seem to be convinced of the economics versus this trade war. with that be your take at this juncture, which is get back to basics, strong consumer, strong u.s. brexit talk about this trade war is in the context of an overheating u.s. economy is benefiting from aggressive fiscal stimulus. in terms of economic fallout, we still talk about marginal changes and the risk of global recession are extremely low. but is it makes sense, think it's clear from the way market dynamics have changed in it's down from the highs we saw month ago. yields are likely

to push higher. global financials sessions are set to tighten. i think this is going to persist for the remainder of 2018. were having the end of globalization and the beginning of trade frictions in the globalized world will have a boomerang effect. the end of quantitative easing, and the huge -- anna: the end of globalization is what is at stake. thanks for joining us early this morning. up, any u.k. firms are said to be considering building up stock files to ease brexit risks. we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." 6:23 here in london. 3:23 in the afternoon over in seoul where these pictures are coming from. celebrations underway in various parts of the world. you're looking at these live pictures coming to us from seoul. manus: many u.k. manufactures are considering building up stockpiles to ease the risk of brexit related trade delays. anna: that's according to the british chambers of commerce.

also looking to expand storage capacity to deliver to the same timescale after britain leaves the. this is the story coming out of the bcc where they say many members of thinking about how they will cope with the potential disruptions that could exist around border issues and customs issues in march 2019 or perhaps later. we are getting into the meat of things now, aren't we? does it feel like were getting to the rub here? >> i think the long waiting game is coming to an end. we are well into this next business cycle. given the standoff that appears to be developing between the u.k. government and the brussels

position, with respect to financial services. but businesses are starting to take the risk on their own balance sheet and that will have a huge impact on investment and hiring decisions. is,his point, the question with assume so long we will have a smooth brexit transition, but the economic reality that comes after remains to be seen. manus: when you look at the comments yesterday, we started very divergent limit positions. he said he understands theresa may's need to demonstrate the best brexit policy -- possible. government gave a form of financial, physical subsidy to the u.k. auto industry early

on, right at the very start of this before negotiations began. that clearly alleviates the pressure to reach a trade deal with respect to a key sector. the potential for reaching the proper that's compromised is -- the potential for wreaking -- potential for reaching a compromise his lesson. it sends a clear message, let's not forget the city of london is a global and european financial biggestnd it's the because it has the advantage at other centers like you nor -- like new york and geneva don't have. fragmentation pushes that borrowing costs across europe. do you buy that? >> across the channel there have

been so many comments i have heard in recent months. manus: thank you very much, we will pick up the conversation shortly. we will talk about the ecb, next. ♪ mom you called?

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anna: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." 6:30 here in the morning. asian equity markets up by .75% on the msci asia-pacific. u.s. futures pretty flat. manus: let's see where they go

through the day. anna: let's check in with anne-marie. those s&p 500 recouped the clients. we have tokyo, sydney, shanghai all of, hong kong as well outperforming the shares. relief in the market that the will --ts care plan ceo ofoke to the jpmorgan asset management and she said fundamentals across the world are looking strong technically speaking. let's move on what's happening in terms of the central bank. the focus shifts as the ecb meets. they're expecting a change in policy but we could hear from the governing council in terms of any policy change and when they might change the terms of quantitative easing. in trying to guard against inflationary pressures around

the world. you can see in this chart that the five year treasury yield in the u.s. and the german five-year may be starting to move largely in tandem. closely at the german yields as the ecb meets today. an energy may be do a turn in the spotlight seen. features developing a bearish chart pattern. testing nutrient levels. oil could go back to $58 per barrel, not good for the crown prince who is visiting london. anna: thanks for that look at the broader markets. she'll be covering that visit by the crown prince a little later for us. mario draghi's progress toward stimulus exit is likely to remain slow for now with low inflation and potential looming trade war. let's bring in matt miller who is in frankfurt for us today.

i suppose the question is, is it just that he has she goes, he doesn't want to work the market in any way because he wants to buy more time? patience and persistence. matt: exactly. i was going to save the exact same words, patience and persistence is what mario draghi won't. bloomberg economics doesn't expect him to change his language until the june meeting at the earliest. he will try and hold the tiller steady. markets,t want to jar although there is an argument today that if he does change the there will bece, an ultimate in the quantitative easing but that could mean real strength for the euro in today's trade. anna: i guess a couple of reasons he will not want to give into those more hawkish voices,

the potential for living trade wars, the end of globalization perhaps, in the words of one of our guests this morning. matt: absolutely. andll be waiting to hear certainly he will be asked many questions about the possibility of a trade war, perhaps those worries have died down a little bit in the markets and we won't see as much effect on trade. still you would expect mario draghi to say in some way that he does support and the european central bank does support for globalade system, market. but everyone will be on edge waiting for him to make some sort of comment about the latest american moves and the demand for tariffs on steel and aluminum. manus: it's going to be a long day. matt miller in frankfurt for the ecb meeting.

here he go, patience and persistence from mario draghi. think the prospect of trade tos will change his dial date. but he asked be it of this new and very present risk. >> the genie is out of the box with respect to trade wars and it's not going to go back any time soon. ecb has got to be seen to be awake at the wheel, if you like. think we may will get some strong rhetoric today from the ecb. two other things in the market exercising resources at the moment, global financial conditions, and that's the historic cycle of cheap dollar leverage supplied demand.

doesn't do the central banks job for them? it may be a constructive bank for central banks. >> what we've seen with respect let expectations about the communication strategy is that they are extremely conservative. manage -- with the fed losing control of financial conditions, since the fed stopped refinancing six months ago. that quantity of tightly has with thed directly rise of 10 year yields which is

incomplete. this will continue to tighten the financial conditions. the third one, and this is the key reason why the governing council has held back in its expectations that is forward guidance will not be shifting publicly as soon as this week. the ecb policymakers are clearly keen to maintain control of market. they are conscious of the fact that the end of quantitative easing will have on credit spreads. they want to contain the risk of market volatility and ensure that eurozone financial conditions remain after the end of qe. anna: and how they managed to do this? maybe there were some decoupling between u.s. rates and good so we had treasury yields may be maintaining their course and b und yields falling.

>> i think this conscious shows the global cost of risk-taking is rising. that means more volatility and reduce control of the ecb on eurozone credit markets. that at the lease would suggest that the ecb will probably maintain their dovish normalization communications strategy to keep acting behind the markets. that therong message policy remains not own a set course. manus: where are we with a global perspective? inflation data suite, you

can see it's the u.k.. globalook at the overall reflation trend on a monthly basis, things are beginning to flatline. the question is, we've got hard data, soft data, inflation data. our at the peak of our momentum in the reflation trade globally? reflatione extent the trade are the goldilocks trade will build on easy financial conditions forever and low inflation forever, yes, that cycle has peaked and we are pivoting from that. the late cycle aggressive fiscal stimulus in the u.s. that will frontload growth at the expense of a higher debt burden in the

future, the end of quantitative easing which means the decoupling of the global cost of debt, we talk about 10 year yields in the eurozone which will have an impact on the global credit cycle. and the end of the great globalization era. anna: i'm going to write that one down. on that subject, you mentioned the end of globalization, would you expect or draghi to speak out about this in the context of what it does to his growth or inflection expectations -- inflation expectations? is this an area they will have to jump into an address? >> any trade restrictions would have a negative impact on growth and a push-up impact on

ignoredn and cannot be by central banks. this is possibly something that will interest this rhetoric. which actions would suggest perhaps reduced downside risk to growth. of course there is a consensus in the market that qe will come to an end in the final quarter of this year. time, to the extent that mario draghi may well signal that global growth will probably remain strong but inflation will definitely be pushed higher. that will be another warning signal that the end of easy money is coming. anna: thank you very much for your time today. you can follow along with all the functions that manus rings at -- brings us this morning. byn in the conversation

clicking on the ask a question link at the bottom of the screen. manus: what is the world's oldest central bank? it's on that page we just mentioned. up next, saudi arabia and the u.k. agreed $90 billion worth of deals but there is no word yet on the aramco listing. anna: and later, mark wilson 7:00 u.k. time of course. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: a live shot of new york. it's 1:45 a.m.. were nudging into the green this , clawing back losses of as much as 1% yesterday afternoon. , who replacess him and will there be exemptions for canada and mexico? flash.et the business juliette saly is standing by. the renault nissan alliance has denied report that the companies are in talks to buy stakes in a step toward a possible merger. roared are's reported talks between nissan and government officials over the japanese

automaker purchasing most of the 15% stake. after spike in as much as 13%, the report was also denied by a french finance industry official. bitcoin has slumped for a third day amid fears of regulatory clampdown cryptocurrency exchanges in japan and the u.s.. extended the slump below $10,000 after japan's financial services agency ordered to exchanges to halt operations for a month and penalized for others. the announcement came just hours after warning from the u.s. securities and exchange commission that many online trading platforms should register with the agency. the airbus superjumbo has suffered new blow with virgin atlantic canceling in order for six planes. virgin originally ordered it a decade ago but has now acknowledged the double-decker has no place in its plans. the cancellation came as airbus confirmed a reduction in output

to just six units a year of 2020 to reflect sluggish demand. force has said that boeing is expected to once again miss the key deadline for the contract on its refueling tanker. 18plans to deliver the first of wingand nine sets mounted refueling pods by october, which is only for treatment later than the initial date of august 2017. the air force now set of required deliveries are more likely to be completed in late spring 2019. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: the u.k. has rolled out the red carpet for saudi prime minister. anna: they agreed to a goalless 60 probably in pounds of trade.

theresa may's office called it a vote of confidence in the economy before britain leaves the e.u.. a big vote of confidence would be a listing of aramco in london. they we give it from politics to business. what do we expect? >> we think they will sign 14 trade deals. we saw tie up with astrazeneca. this is a sign of things to come. these two countries have agreed they are going to work on trade deals and investment together. a huge sign of confidence to the crown prince. they said they support his reform agenda. positivitylot of around the fact that they are allowing women to drive and go to sporting events and concerts. the trip is not without concern from the opposition. protesters were outside downing street when he arrived and we will probably expect to see them around the city today as well. countries, being

allowed to drive and go to outside events is an everyday thing. we are just seeing a headline coming through, a memorandum of understanding with astrazeneca. again, the business is going to be quite a permeating part. today the headlines for come .hrough >> $90 billion is what we're expecting. we will see if this materializes, but may certainly wants the aramco ipo to come here. they are not talking about it, but you have to imagine, he is going to the u.s. after this. donald trump also wants aramco.

you have to imagine part of this trip is to build up that support and try to get him to come here. maybe there are some regulatory hurdles they can been for him. anna: the gender imbalance in central banks across the world has increased in the past year with just 12 out of 173 institutions headed by women, according to a new report released by the official monetary and financial institutions office. and index onublish gender balance within public financial institutions. it usually shows that the ratio of women in top positions has worsened across the majority of regions. joining us is the head of research, welcome to bloomberg. it must be said that the report

you have produced, if you look at the detail of, it's amazing departure of two powerful women can't janet yellen at the fed and a number of other departures, have skewed the numbers. how are the central banks doing? talk us through the landscape post janet yellen. >> it isforce year -- the fourth year they are looking at gender imbalance. economies like the u.s. or the u.k. kerry especially great weight. the overall value of the index was around 30% last year at of a perfect balance score of 100%. this year it has fallen to 19%. to a great extent, that is due to the departure of janet yellen, but it is also because other regions have seen their score decrease. only two saw their score improve, and these were europe and latin america. the 12et's celebrate

women who do run central banks around the world. i was quite impressed. rush of being the obvious one. why does this matter? myopia,und avoiding versus a more diverse group of people. next this year carries an especially important weight coming in a year will when we've seen harassment, from the toertainment industry economics and finance closer to home. in central banks, it carries special weight does of the importance of decisions, these are institutions that make decisions on behalf of the public and that affect the lives of men and women in different ways. usedaving a diverse set of to inform those positions is really important. there's a lot of evidence in about -- having that diversity

is very important when you think about issues of financial stability and monetary policy. manus: this is one of the arguments that have been made, that is our men were involved in the decision-making -- more women, that things may perhaps had a different outcome. men of the report is that need to actually understand and acknowledge the increased participation from women can actually add to decision-making. how much progress is eating made with that, acknowledging the factual benefit of diversity? if there's growing literature in terms of the benefits of increasing that pool of talent that organizations can benefit from. women as roleing models that younger women can be inspired to think they can have successful careers in those fields. organizations benefit because if

you cannot draw from: women, you're missing out on great part of the population that could be successful. men are waking up to this as well. it's about how you have men and women as role models for younger men and women. anna: how is the ecb doing versus other central banks? there was a campaign by some members of the european parliament to have governments nominate some women as well for the positions. something that is often runner to, the front replace mario draghi, according to most speculation, his appointment to the presidency of the ecb would mean the only woman would have to step down because of the regulation that no two members from the same country can be on the board. so there is an interesting aspect there in terms of what is

the ecb doing to include gender diversity. how open are they in terms of embracing women on the decision-making? >> sovereign wealth funds are .maller subgroup our research looked at around 6000 individuals from 415 institutions. out of these, only 70 are sovereign wealth funds. any individual find carries a weight,t -- a greater but as a group they have to work score, so they have 12% compared 14%.19 they are not doing very well. greatthank you very much, research. next, we will bring it an exclusive interview and will be va.ned of it ceo of avi

manus: and nice growth in the u.k. all those results right here on "bloomberg daybreak: europe." ♪

manus: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. anna: is our today's top stories. manus: the u.s. grants [inaudible] provided they reach a new nafta deal. >> nafta is an old agreement. we have important trading relationships with canada and mexico but the president wants to look at this agreement and wants a better deal for american workers and american companies. anna: worries about protectionism fade. manus: going slow. the ecb delivers its policy

decision but with weak inflation and a possible trade war looming, does mario draghi have good reason to play it safe? we are live in frankfurt. warm welcome to daybreak. mark will it -- wilson delivers numbers to the city. just a smidge below the original estimate of 3.1. dividend 27.4 pence. this is the uk's second-largest insurer. life insurance is the largest part of the business. think of the deals that have gone on recently. wilson has been selling smaller businesses to focus on digital growth and he committed to the payout ratio. ratiosing dividend payout

55% to 65% by 2020. with the premium comes 7.6 billion pounds. the difference between millions and billions. it is all about the dividend. numbers, net income 1.6 billion and a commitment on that dividend. 55% to 60%. we will drill into those with mark. about thatll talk with the ceo of aviva. minus a .9% month on month. the estimate looks for a drop but of 1.8%. the orders number looks to be below estimates. was an -- the estimate increase of 11.1%.

beware of reading too much into the data. would want to be if you are running the german economy. january factory orders and manufacturing orders coming in below estimates for january. manus: in terms of the equity markets you have rising equity markets. these holdouts that are giving to canada and mexico. if you sign up to a good nafta agreement in the u.s. mario draghi, will he hold steady and will he talk about the prospect of trade wars and what that might have anna broader perspective for the work. for the moment, the world perceives these are clawbacks and something to be positive about. japanese gdp coming in that is in the market had anticipated.

you have equity markets rising. will it be persistent and patient, that is the message from the market that they want to see. you have a little bit of a cold in terms of the oil market. asian stocks have put in a rally . we are picking up that dovetail. the risk's look at radar. we are seeing positivity in the asian session. recovery and some of around gary cohn's departure faded. we saw that happening. this is being picked up globally. reaction.f will this impact on markets equally, will they move in sync or will they diversion around the trade seems. we are up. euro-dollar losing ground. i went through that disappointing data and that has

had a short-term impact on the euro. matt is covering that story. how much will the ecb board [indiscernible] falling by 2% in yesterday's session. expectations are rising. the five-year expectations have risen consistently but it is not thwarting on your bond market. equities are rising, bonds are better off and bond futures are trading higher by a couple of pips. issuance wasd welcome. all of these are lower by four hips. treasuries late into the market, there is a flood looking at the stories from yesterday. block trades coming through in and supporting the market in the latter part of the day. the out -- bond markets are

fairly calm ahead of the ecb. where we go next on the bund trade, she does not think that mario draghi is going to do anything aggressive in the near term. anna: lots of reason to sit on their hands at the ecb. miss two later, do not exclusive interviews. we will speak first to the ceo of jpmorgan's bank. daniel pinto is joining us. and conversation with jamie dimon. though start from 9:00 a.m. u.k. time. here is juliette saly. juliette: the trump administration will exclude tariffs.d mexico from white house traded pfizer peter navarro said the nations will not be subject if they sign a new nafta deal. he added other american allies

could use a similar system to ask for an exemption. china's exports matched expectations and -- in february. as imports rose to 6.2% which was below forecast. that left a trade surplus of almost $34 billion against estimates of a 6 billion dollar deficit. the foreign minister warned of a justified and necessary response to any efforts to incite a trade war. japan's economy grew by a much better than expected 1.6% in the fourth quarter. the japanese economy has grown for eight straight quarters since global demand fueled record profits and rising business investment. economists are warning that the longest run of expansion in three decades could end in the first quarter. the white house is weighing a broad list of contenders to succeed gary cohn as the top economic advisor. according to people familiar, names include goldman sachs

executive jim donovan, and traded pfizer peter navarro. his departure came as the president decided to move forward with a plan to slap tariffs on aluminum and steel imports. it was promoted by navarro. british police said they critically ill russian spy and his daughter were victims of a nerve agent and closing -- increasing the possibility the attack from us -- was from another state. officer on the scene who is -- is also in the hospital in serious condition. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . a much-needed recovery coming through in asia. it has been a volatile week for investors but as we saw wall street stabilize we had good

growth coming in and the asian region. the nikkei closed higher by .501%. chinese markets will bid. of 1%.sex up right .7 in terms of the stocks we have been watching in the region, goldman came through with a call that chinese banks will outperform as their earnings improve. they like china construction and, china merchants bank coastal savings, china construction up in the hong kong session. and buying come as coming through in medical stocks surging after boosting profit outlook. of theseee a lot japanese construction makers coming under pressure. datawas as we saw chinese fall in the month affair worry. impacted by the timing of that leonard new year holiday. are -- lunar new year holiday. manus: reporting full-year

adjusted revenue in line with analyst estimates. good to see you this morning. i am looking at the breakdown. technology is a big heart of your business. you are growing cash solution technology. tech. growth in the last time we caught up it was the emerging markets that underwhelmed in the numbers. talk me through the geography of the world and how it plays out for g4s in terms of strength and challenges. guest: good morning. operateure is that we in 100 countries around the world. that is divided into six regions. all of our regions apart from one grew that topline and bottom line in 2017. but we flagged early last year was we saw the slow down and the contraction coming in our middle

east and india region and that was the picture that we saw for the full year. as the resultsgs show is because we are geographically diversified, it means that when one of our regions around the world slows down or contracts, the group of -- as a whole continues to grow. we posted another year of proper growth. notwithstanding the slowdown. we continue to see very strong growth in the u.s. which is our biggest market and our biggest business. and good growth in europe. anna: good morning. when you look at the business and you outlined the geographical spread, there is a lot of worry about outsourcing businesses given what has happened to some of the competition. how do you see yourself differently to someone in your

sector or linked to your sectors that have come unstuck? guest: g4s is a security company and outsourcing as defined typically is a small part of our business. it is 7% of our global revenue. it is a good business in our case. what we see in other parts of the outsourcing industry is different. these are long-term construction contracts typically. which we do not participate in that part of the industry. most of our business, 93% of our business is in cash solutions and security solutions. we have not run into the problems that we see in the outsourcing industry over the last 12 months. we are a different business fundamentally. the next legdoes of growth come for you? one of those factoids, you just by this brussels contract

the airport business. where do you take the business next? you are the man who has tried to steer this company. after quite an expensive and acquisitive time. where do you look for growth? to seek goodtinue growth opportunities in our developed markets. europe, north america, we see some sign of returning growth and recovery in africa and asia. we think further down the track, the middle east will come back at some point. probably 12 months down the track. developed markets in particular are an interesting opportunity. we are increasing the technology content in the delivery of our services. that is finding good traction in north america, europe, and the u.k.. we will continue to see good growth. andill take that technology

push it out to our emerging-market businesses. anna: in terms of your u.k. contract, government security do tension contracts, how you see those evolving, what kind of pressures do you see on government pockets, government budgets that could impact you? those sorts of services or karen justice services as we referred to them represent 7% of our revenue. we have two markets, they u.k. and australia. we have a slightly more positive view on growth opportunities in australia. we go to the next 12 to 24 months, we think there is going to be much new business in the u.k. market. there may be some but we have a fairly cautious stance on that

business segment in the u.k. in the next 12 to 12 four months. manus: one of the things that [inaudible] is the debt. talk us through your debt profile. they're talking about your debt and capita. what do you say to the market in terms of your debt and in terms of the ratios? are they coming down? guest: our financial position is enormously. it is four years since we set out our plan to transform the company. since 2013, we generated over 2.5 billion pounds of operating cash flow. that has put us in a good position to not only invest in technology but also to bring debt down. when we reported our full-year

results we met our target of billow 2.5t debt times. that is distinctive about the business. on a strong8 foundation. we feel good about growth process and that is reflected in a 5% increase in the dividend. anna: thank you for your time. joining us there from the london stock exchange. mark wilson speaks to us in just a moment. the company released its latest earnings statements. manus: committed to the payout ratio. bloomberg forins an exclusive interview at 9:30 a.m. u.k. time. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the ceo mark by

wilson. just looking at the items you have given today in terms of increasing the dividend payout, the 5% growth in operating ats for 2018, up eight us on what changed since november. you had capital markets in november. has anything changed or is it steady as she goes since then? mark: growth continues and continuing stronger than we were expecting. they are u.k. was particularly strong. the doom and gloom of brexit did not affect is too much. business was a and lifestyles are up 23%. the growth has gone across six of our eight markets. to aps beingte it up seven. there is a lot of capital on top of that. we have is high-quality problem of having to deploy $2 billion

of it. manus: a very good morning. can we move on from bolt on acquisitions? payoutffirmed the 55% target by 2020. you have a lovely problem. how are you going to solve it? >> it is a good question. what we have said is dividends do not come out of the cash pile. dividends come out of earnings. i am quite clear what we use it for. 900 million is paying down some expensive debt. we are going to put another 500 million into giving that back to shareholders this year. million we will spend on bolt on acquisitions. they are the flavor of the month and the insurance world. we will try to deploy the 600 on

that. anna: you mentioned earlier that the u.k. was better than you expected. what is it in the u k is doing well for you? mark: there's a few things. we have a composite business. puttingable to target it together in one business and we are operating more effectively. our digital does this has gone extra nearly well. we exceeded one billion pounds of ibm. stand. a nice maybe there was a flight to quality and we had one of the guest brands here. brands, weto big look like a big beneficiary of it. m&as: you mentioned the story. if you look at the latest flurry you have aig going after failed

as. -- ouruation rising valuations rising? we are entering a giddy valuation period. is it possible to find the bolt ons at good prices? mark: although we have a large file of cash it is not running a hole in my pocket. i do not chase deals. valuations are different. if you look for valuations on financials in the u.k., they are lagging the rest of the world. did wellind that we just before christmas. that was a attractive valuation. we are looking at a few more bolt ons and pretty good valuations. if they get too high, there is always a word i can say and that is no. you said you plan to two

exit some markets or sectors. where will the exits focus? mark: the good point today is for the last four years we have want companies that can grow. we just finished another acquisition in spain. we just closed taiwan and others we did not want. we have solved the ones we do not want. these are businesses that can grow. you have seen that in the results and you will see some pretty good eps growth and we can deploy on top. i am finished with disposals. fa on them looking at bloomberg. how is the canadian business doing? was not all good news

and the one dark spot is canada. canada was down about 220 million pounds that it is a percent down. there was a lot of weather-related claims, frequency, a lot of geographic issues. it was not a great year. we have a 26 point plan to fix it. that is one of the benefits of us as a group. we have enough diversity that we can overcome a bad result in one market and still get 7% eps growth. that is what we have done. canada will have a bit of a bounceback and next year -- this year and next year. us.: thanks for joining manus: good to hear one ceo saying brexit has not battered his business this far. a conversation with mark wilson. those manufacturing orders were

pretty tough. anna: stay with bloomberg. jamie dimon joins us for an exclusive interview at 930 a.m. u.k. time. ♪ mom, dad, can we talk?

sure. what's up, son? i can't be your it guy anymore. what? you guys have xfinity. you can do this. what's a good wifi password, mom? you still have to visit us. i will. no. make that the password: "you_stillóhave_toóvisit_us." that's a good one. seems a bit long, but okay... set a memorable wifi password with xfinity my account. one more way comcast is working to fit into your life, not the other way around. anna: welcome to bloomberg

markets. anna edwards alongside matt miller. cash trade is less than 30 minutes away. special treatment. the u.s. promises canada and mexico and exemption from tariffs on steel and aluminum but only if they reach a new nafta deal. >> nafta is an old agreement. we have important trading relationships with canada and mexi.