drug addiction will stop under his administration and the people involved in drug trafficking should pay the ultimate prize for the lives they destroyed. >> these are terrible people. we need to get tough on those people. we can get all the blue ribbon committee's we want, if we don't get tough on the drug dealers, we are wasting our time. remember that. we are wasting time. that toughness includes the death penalty. penalty. mark: the president has attacked the efforts with a call for a border war with mexico saying it would cut off the legal flow of drugs and people. sheesa may said today that is doubling down on accusations that russia used a military aade nerve agent to poison former double agent and his daughter, who are in critical condition. >> they have the capability.

this nerve agent was developed by the soviets. russia has the capability and the motive and intent. this is part of a pattern of behavior we have seen across europe. britainst week announced the expulsion of 23 russian diplomats and pressure responded in kind. -- russia responded in kind. night inas killed last arizona, likely be first pedestrian fatality involving a driverless vehicle. the woman was crossing the road when the vehicle struck her. testings it is halting in san francisco, toronto, and the greater phoenix area. the u.s. supreme court is leaving a place a ruling that stems from the water crisis in flint, michigan.

the court declined to get involved, leaving in place a ruling that said lawsuits filed by residents were improperly dismissed. the decision means the cases will return to the trial court to move forward. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists in over 120 countries. global news 24 hours a day powered by morei'm mark crumpto. this is bloomberg. julia: live from new york, i am julia chatterley. we are 30 minutes from the close. tech stocks lagging. track forver 2% on an steep losses. facebook in the spotlight. joe: "what'd you miss?"

scarlet: investors react. stocks down 7% as american and european officials demand answers to reports a political advertising firm retained information on users without consent. er halting testing of its baton miss vehicles. this is the first known pedestrian deaths involving a self driving vehicle. an apple designing and producing its own display for the first time. the details next. stocks are in the red. all in the s&p 500 losing ground. it is really quite a selloff we have. dow, s&p 500, nasdaq down more than 1.5%. take a look at the nasdaq,

underperforming in a big way. its worst day since february 8, the selloff we saw in early february now being matched, the nasdaq 100 down even more, 2.7%. it feels like this is out of nowhere. this does follow last week when last week whenage is we had the average is down. the bears are trying to take control. the volatility we have seen, light, facebook, down light, facebook, down 7.6%. it's worst day since 2012. these are the early reporting. perhaps more bearish news to come. that is setting a risk off tone for many of the other names. alphabet, other names lower. cisco, ibm, old school, new school, technology is down. let's take a look at the technicals on the nasdaq 100.

is the bloomberg, we showed it on futures, the idea that although there is this uptrend we have seen recently, we would probably see a steep decline. we have that today. flirting with the 50 day average in yellow. if below that, you can make the we can go down to the bottom of that range. that is a long way and sellers are trying to take control and really may succeed in doing that. time will tell. that chart is bears. -- bearish. not a safety, flightsafety here. we have bonds actually selling off slightly. gold is about flat. take a look at the vix.

if we go into the bloomberg, something interesting setting up. it may make the case more volatility is ahead. last year the vix flatlining as there was complacency. this year's spike up, one of the biggest on record. the point to make is this area of congestion is broken to the upside. this chart may suggest the vix is setting up for a super spike. you can see the vix going to 90. this may suggest volatility could grow even more. julia: we will see later in the show. "what'd you miss?" facebook back in the middle of a political firestorm as pressure mounts over reports that cambridge analytica, the data firm that helped elect president used private information

from the profiles of millions of users without consent. statesls in the united and europe are demanding answers. calls for mark zuckerberg to testify before the senate judiciary committee. we welcome david kirkpatrick, author of "the facebook effect." great to have you. great to have you. this story goes on so many different levels. the angles we could take. 2.5 years plus since the legend data breach. -- since the alleged data breach. sayll they have done is defensive tweets. basically they have said nothing, which is inexcusable. the level of concern we have right now, any other company would have it ceo out there talking. sheryl sandberg.

that is just one of so many things we can criticize them for. joe: we have had you on several times. this one seems to be different. the market reaction suggests investors think so. does it feel different to you that this is a step up in terms of potential threats to the company? >> it doesn't. accumulation of all of these issues. the reason the market and politicians are reacting negatively today is because they are starting to realize this kind of thing is becoming a pattern. this is a regular problem facebook is having. i would argue it is because of failures of systems that are endemic to the way facebook has been allowed to evolve. if true, then the stock probably

should drop because we are going to see even more problems in the future. that does not really get contradicted by what they would say in their defense that this was a violation of rules that were changed in 2015. there are so many rules that are thereforced, understood, opacity and acity fundamental lack of transparency that is heidi heidi -- society s getting screwed by the failures of facebook. that is what we are starting to see. julia: facebook has been slow to respond. facebook is politically vulnerable. not just from republicans or democrats. this is a bipartisan effort to say you have not done enough. >> i think that is true. some politicians are coming out and criticizing them. that will probably continue up to a point. there is reasons, i actually,

wall street is going to govern facebook. here is one reason. pretty much every politician the world owes their election in part to facebook. any politician in any country where there is democracy uses theyook to advertise and said, if not for facebook, i might not have gotten elected. are those people going to bite the hand that fed them? i'm not sure. the wall street people, even today developments are driven by the talk of political pushback, it really should be dropping because they are starting to realize the point i made earlier, the systems have are notigned badly, or design. they were allowed to evolve and create pitfalls. the company is going to keep getting hit with public and

political pushback that will affect the willingness of advertisers to go there. julia: i think more questions are being asked as to whether or , getting back to the story, cambridge analytica just said once we realized that the company we had the data from had broken their agreement with they we then showed asked for the data to be deleted . do we go back to facebook or is the snowball effect on to this individual point? >> i think the snowball goes beyond this. it is conceivable they are telling the truth although the evidence does not suggest that. if they are telling the truth, if the data was deleted and wasn't used, that would tamp

down controversy. uncertainties are a function of the design. we don't know how the system works. facebook does not let us see. even though people might uncerte ,greed to some terms of service their privacy settings were not right in 2015, we can have this hairsplitting defense that people should have known if they read the terms of service. that is not acceptable. scarlet: we don't know how the systems work. do the advertisers know? >> no. answers tohave the these questions. they know it gets them business. it is a brilliant system for targeting. at what cost? if you are an advertiser, what is the associative, negative association you might get by being on a platform that is

reviled by both parties? don't think ordinary users could care less at this point. julia: how did they fix the problems? >> they talk about fixing things. is insidee problem the way data flows inside of facebook. if they are so great that the level of reform required is not something that can be done quickly, at a minimum. think of a basic thing, if they could not detect that ru mustwere being used, they have poor controls. they can build new controls. they have work to do. well said. david kirkpatrick is the author of "the facebook effect." coming up, the president's

budget has called for massive spending levels after the tax cuts. should we be worried? this is bloomberg. ♪

," thewhat'd you miss? white house's spending plans have stirred anxiety with debt. are those concerns valid? a former chief economist for the democrats senate budget committee and an advisor to the clinton campaign has a new piece not theools are problem. the problem is the narrative is broken. stephanie, great to have you on the show finally. we have been seeing the calls

that we are going to have a debt problem and the deficit is blowing up. how should we think about that? >> when i think about, people are feared to the fiscal stimulus and the potential deficitf the getting larger, can the economy take it, can they absorb the the economy take it, can they absorb the additional demand we might see if the tax cuts do with the republicans tell us they are going to do, create new demand and spending and employment. there is this back ending it with 300 million in infrastructure. i look at this and go, can we absorb that kind of additional stimulus? or are we so close to full appointment, we are going to have an inflation problem? that is the big question. acrosss not agreement the economic lines on this

question. most people would say they look at the economy and think this is more or less at full employment. i tend to think as long as we continue to come in out of the labor force and you believe that firms might respond to the pickup in demand by doing what they have not been doing over the course of the year, which is invest in investment again. that can those things, create a that can create a capacity as demand picks up and you expect to avoid a nasty inflationary episode. as we try to assess tax cuts, the budget, we should path of the economy and not on the financial aspect about what the deficit is. >> that is how i look at it. can the nation absorb the spending, whether from the government, the private sector,

it is all about the resource constrained. say we areeople adding another trillion dollars to the national debt. you ever written about why those can turns are misguided. -- those concerns are misguided. why would you -- what would you say to people who say that is a scary number? >> i like to put some numbers because it helps to give an example. they see a that and number reported in a newspaper a bigournalist has number. they know there is a negative sign in front of it. we are talking about the government spending more money into the economy than it taxes back out. imagine the government spending $100 billion and only taxing $90 billion. the government has run a

deficit. that is written down on the ledger. it positive ine the economy. the government's red ink is the black ink of someone else. createse deficit additional space for government to spend into the economy. those leakages create a cushion to allow the government's deficit to be larger without inflationary pressure. joe: ok, the government is going to do $1 trillion of stimulus. mixe is a variety of fiscal that could be, tax cuts for the rich, new infrastructure. the trump fiscal policy, how does that aligned from what your preferred policy would be? >> if i were designing the tax cuts, i would not do them so the

benefits go to people who are least likely to bend back into the economy. if the goal is to create jobs and stimulate economic activity, it seems to me you would want to direct the resources to those who would turn around and spend the money. i would have structured the cuts differently. the people at the top don't need additional help. millions of americans do. joe: you are an advisor to the sanders campaign. democrats -- what would you advise them to do? >> do so selectively. joe: got it. stephanie, thank you so much. scarlet: coming up, the facebook effect. a regulatorys avalanche is on the horizon. it has sent the nasdaq down. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: "what'd you miss?," facebook touching off a regulatory avalanche fears. joining us now to discuss is mike reagan. great to have you with us. facebook is the epicenter of times theg, a lot of companies are hit with alarming news and then you see analysts and have a share price cut. was facebook. it goes to show this is a big risk for them. it is hard to quantify.

the analysts are being cautious. wasyou wonder what the stock investors are saying. scarlet: it is a steady drip of negative headlines -- >> seems to be snowballing. that is the point david kirkpatrick made. besides facebook, what else are people talking about in the markets? today, stocks had started to go down. week rollover.st there was a feeling heading into the weekend and this lit a fire. obviously the fed on wednesday. everyone wondering if this will be the time they signal four hikes. that is a big issue. i was not sure what is so bad so i put out a blog post saying, tell us what you think. one guy thinks the shinzo abe poll numbers in japan were

troubling. he thinks that might be in the mix, we have president trump with alarming tweets about robert mueller. a lot of possibilities in the mix. you also have to come back to the trade tensions. if we are going to be the aggressors in trade tension, you have to look at, how does the european union respond? do they come down hard? obviously a corrective phase for the markets. or is that a lazy term? >> it doesn't have a textbook definition. you have to get back to the highs before. julia: i'm all over it. scarlet: mike regan, thanks for joining us. leading theasdaq

way down, off by 1.9%. volume lower, except in the nasdaq which is above the average. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ mom, dad, can we talk?

sure. what's up, son? i can't be your it guy anymore. what? you guys have xfinity. you can do this. what's a good wifi password, mom? you still have to visit us. i will. no. make that the password: "you_stillóhave_toóvisit_us."

that's a good one. seems a bit long, but okay... set a memorable wifi password with xfinity my account. one more way comcast is working to fit into your life, not the other way around. ♪ scarlet: "what'd you miss?"

facebook. the averages are in the red. the nasdaq is down almost 2%. the steepest lost in two weeks. the averages are in the red. i am julia chatterley. scarlet: i joe: am scarlet fu. -- i am scarlet fu. joe: i am joe. the start of the week we had a lot of red across the screen. about sixt loss in weeks. at one point, it was down over 2%. the resumptions of the declines that we saw last joe, as you pointed out earlier, it is not just facebook. there are a number of negative headlines. you were. -- uber. to digest.for people

volatility is back. we are not out of the correction woods yet. at facebook us look shares. in the end, down almost 7%, the steepest decline in almost four years since 2014. officials demanding facebook shares. in the end, down almost 7%, the steepest decline answers from the social media network. --ebook did say it will be cambridge analytica agreed to a forensic audit. analytica came out with a response saying it had done everything by the books. we will see how it shakes out but there is a lot of political pressure on the company. buyor 10 court, it is often 4%. -- as for 4%. -- as for kla-tencor was off by 4%.

newel brands off by six and a half -- 6.5%. teaming is a way to fend off opposition. op and tck mention -- and hourn late trading before the close after the a lot of said companies would give free narcan to schools. a lot of companies would give free narcan to schools. joe: let us take a look at the government bond market and the key thing today to recognize is that rates are off. we have a risk off move when you look at it from the perspective

of the equities. remember, in the volatility we saw earlier in february, this was a defining aspect. the treasury market offered no safe haven. it was being sold off also and we are seeing a reemergence of that today. no place to hide in diversified portfolios. 10 year yield is up to 2.85%. julia: tough to fight especially in a fed week. let us look at sterling. some good news and green on the board. steady rising to the highest levels since 2017. the0 five after the eu and u.k. reached a broad agreement on the brexit transition period, 21 months. still, the question is about implementation. that still has to be negotiated and it is contingent on the irish border which is still an open question.

we will take the good news while we can get it. the rally by the dollar -- the ecb is shifting the debate on the expected path of interest rates. do not roll your eyes. apparently, the more dovish officials accepting that the program is shifting this year. a bit of a spike, 0.4%. let us look at the aussie dollar. 2.6% rally for the aussie dollar to start the month. fueled in part by president donald trump's decision to exempt australia from the tariffs. of the largestlt export for the nation, iron ore. conditions are being cited for moderating growth and curbing demand. higher grade has fallen $.13

in the past few weeks. a quick look at higher grade ha3 in the past few weeks. chart. just showing the aussie dollar in white on the top line. and on the bottom line, chinese iron ore. you can see how closely they track each other. more losses for iron ore and that will weigh slightly on the aussie dollar. and now the bitcoin charge. there you go. this is the 50 day moving average crossing the 200 day moving average. the fact that people are talking about the fact that we are the in ninewe have been months. that is something to get excited about. as far as bitcoin is concerned which amused me greatly. joe: looking at commodities. red in oil.

not too surprising. a little bit of volatility and risk off. 0.33%.ng in for about any dramatic moves in most places. those are today's market minutes. scarlet: we have breaking news. oracle, the business stock company reporting results and the adjusted result topping estimates. estimates. revenue, adjusted revenue for estimates.that revenue, adjusted revenue for the quarter that ended, $9.70 billion, paying in line with what analysts expected. when it comes to the eps numbers, perhaps the estimates may not compare because of the u.s. tax law changes. i am not sure that that is what

you should be looking at. shares are lower in after-hours trading. julia: and the cloud revenue is for the third quarter is up 42%. forlet: "what'd you miss?" more on today's tech stocks selloff, we have michael shaoul. market field asset managements of was her. today was a spill. what are the negative headlines on facebook and the fact that tech sold off across the board mean for the?that rest of the sector and the profits --for the rest of the sector and the profits? michael: i think you can still say that technology has had a good corrective period. it is the only part of the s&p 500 that has forced its way up to a new high though it has not held to those highs. technology will still be leading. the even a midst

extraordinary value for tech stocks in the last few years, the anxiety for them is that spin will happen. some backlash. some backlash. maybe they will be broken up. some backlash. maybe they will be broken up. that society will revolt against their increasing dominance. could today be a preview? michael: if over the next couple of years, there will be some sort of revolution in technology. this is a slow moving story. we will go through periods of excitement and others -- and other times it will be slow. back to the last technology cycle, microsoft was in the cross hairs of the regulators. while effectively regulated, it did not destroy the business but it was a difficult stock to invest in for a period of times. there is a wave of technology.

wave of technology. we can talk about taxing revenues. and i daresay, in the middle of that, we will see other positive headlines, earnings driven, m&a driven, excitement driven but it is more of a two way story but a politic one overall. i think people probably earn enough from the stuff. that performngs poorly. i think that it -- i think that what excites me the most is commodity related. most of the commodity charts you look at -- it is difficult to see the selloff on it. i think technology is the market. s&p.minates the to the extent that you want to have an index in position, technology is one of the likely -- likeliest to go on. julia: you said you are negative

about commercial real estate as well. it is a big part of the s&p but it is the only standalone sector that has met transition -- it has been underperforming for a couple of years. i think the story is one of supply overwhelming demand. there is plenty of demand for commercial real estate. a quick question. the fmoc meeting is on wednesday. jay powell -- will he keep it as boring as possible? michael: i don't think he needs to be a hero but i think he will leave the possibility for four rate hikes. the short end of the curve has already given you -- short-term yields are already 100 basis points higher than in september.

it is probably why it is a little trickier now. shaoul, chairman at market field asset management. uber's force of self driving cars skills a pedestrian. we get the latest from new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ at market field asset management.

♪ i am mark crumpton with first word news. authorities in boston are urging residents to be careful and vigilant following the fourth bombing in the texas capitol in a month. last night's blast triptych by a trip i are. three previous bombings were caused by packages left on doorsteps.

them want to talk to because we do not understand the message he is trying to send. we do not understand why he is doing this. it is unfortunate there was another bombing after our press conference yesterday. austin,olice chief of brian manley told reporters that we are clearly dealing with what we believe to be a serial bomber at this point. the u.s. supreme court today rejected republican challenge to a new pennsylvania congressional voting map. that decision could help democrats pick up multiple seats as they look to retake the house in november. this is the second time the high court turned down a victory in a state which gave the party 13 of pennsylvania's 18 congressional seats in the last three general elections. the secretary says international support for the u.k. in the wake

of the poisoning of a russian spy and his daughter is a buttening and encouraging she also had strong words for russia. the u.k. accuses russia of carrying out the poisoning. >> the attacks in but she also had strong words for russia. salisbury was the -- were the first use of territory.n alliance it shows total disrespect for human lives. the fact that it was an unacceptable breach of international norms and rules. added that russia will continue to seek -- but nato stands united and we stand in solidarity with the u.k. dunford visited theanistan to evaluate military campaign there and to make sure that new american advisory teams are on target. the general says he wants to understand the goals for the coming months so that the u.s. led coalition can develop ways

to measure progress in the fight against the telegram. to measure progress in the fight against the telegram. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. uber: "what'd you miss?" has suspended autonomous vehicle tests after a vehicle struck a pedestrian and died in the hospital. the pedestrian was in tempe, arizona was crossing the road yesterday when the incident took place. eric, from san francisco, great to have you with us. this raises questions about the safety of the technology. what do we know about what happened? are still getting details but it happened sunday night at about 10 a clock p.m. in tempe, arizona. there was a safety driver in the uber vehicle but the autonomous technology was

piloting the car. it was a self driving car in self driving mode. the pedestrian struck was in the road and not in the crosswalk from what we have been told. we are still getting details and obviously, this was at night. so, there may be a recording in so i think there will be more information coming at it seems like the first fatality of a pedestrian in a self driving car to date. scarlet: it is interesting for you to say that the pedestrian was not in the crosswalk. because you see the person is doing that. you will be held responsible if you ram the pedestrian regardless of whether the pedestrian was in the wrong. to what extent have -- has programmers thought about how to program for this? the laws buried by

state regarding pedestrians in ary by state regarding pedestrians in or out of the crosswalk. cars learn to identify line patterns like crosswalks on the roads. sometimes, it is the challenge of spotting somebody. i think over cars learn time wea better sense of what the technological failure was here something went wrong. joe: eric, it sounds course to talk about it but pedestrians are killed all the time by drivers. it is important to look at the history of autonomous vehicle testing and look at the overall safety record even though this case is obviously tragic. researchers of

autonomous vehicles testing -- looking at the whole body of their work? eric: the autonomous companies believe that it is safer. tesla has probably been the most vocal. they have had some driver fatalities when on autopilot and thatbasically said -- inthey he case it is a little different because the drivers are much more engaged. there is a continuum of how much we rely on the human driver backup while the technology is still being tested. alphabet's mode is the most tested. julia: a critical point. what response? do they have from the backup --what response do they have from the backup? the design of key components in-house. we will bring you the latest on

this bloomberg scoop coming right up from new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ apple "what'd you miss?" suppliers. the tech giant could be designing and producing its own screens for the first time. according to people familiar. the ambitious undertaking is the latest example of apple bringing the design of key can -- of key components in-house.

joining us is mike gurman who brought us this school. of course he did. great to have you with us. how ambitious and undertaking and what are we talking about specifically here? mike: this is very ambitious. apple is going after the biggest component. it is how people see everything. apple is going after that component and it is risking relationships with companies like samsung, sharp, universal display -- all of these companies that have relied on apple's business. is this about developing its own capacity to manufacture screens or is apple aiming for a technological breakthrough, a leapfrog over what the existing suppliers are able to provide? is a mix of that. the smartphone landscape -- with theomes up

technology for this green. they manufacture it and sell it to apple. that three-step process is all done by samsung. what apple is doing is saying we want to develop our own technology. they have gone to the beginning of the supply chain, the bottom, and they are even conducting a process of growing led. l -- growing leds and placing them in the micro led panel. going through the production process and learning how to manufacture it, putting up the equipment to manufacture it and building the point to where they can build iphones and apple watches with the technology themselves. they want to cut out the sharp,an like samsung, and algae and others. are they going to mass manufacture this? assemble this for 200 million devices themselves?

very unlikely given the cost and the potential snafus that come with mass production. scarlet: as you reported exclusively, apple is using a manufacturingexclusively, applea manufacturing facility. a small office park in santa clara. why manufacture it in california? is it because it is a part of a concerted effort to bring manufacturing back home? was my thursday or friday, going to check out that facility. scoping it out from across the street to see what it looks like. it is huge. this is about the trump administration wanting to bring back manufacturing -- i don't think it is at. i think they started planning back in 2016 before ramping it up recently. this is about being close to home. a 16 minute drive from the apple campus. most of all, they want to keep

this close to home. itit is not a secret anymore because of our reporting but the whole point of this was to keep it under the radar. a lot of leaks and information come out of the apple supply chain. ringing it close to home was an to avoid that technology becoming public information. julia: you said it could be years before consumers get their hands on this kind of technology. that technology has moved beyond this? can it be scaled up to a greater extent? to avoid that technology becoming public information. julia:mike: we all know how fast they work moves and 5-10 years out on product roadmaps. core technology -- we are talking about this. chances are a sony or a samsung could come out in a year and say apple is working on this, we

have something that will one up them. people will want to wait for that. this is all theoretical. there is nothing telling us that apple is going to ditch one company -- one technology for another that might come out of the woodwork. keeping its options open. bloomberg technology's market -- mike gurman. congratulations. we speak to a professional poker .layer and author, annie duke how to improve your thinking by making bets. it is a must watch for any big decision maker. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ crumpton withk first word news. trump said penalties for drug dealers are not harsh enough. speaking today in manchester, new hampshire, the president of opioidcourge addiction in the u.s. will stop under his administration. and certain people involved in drug trafficking should pay the ultimate price for the thousands of lives a have destroyed. people. are terrible tough onve to get those people. we can have all of the blue ribbon committee's -- committees we want, but tough if we do nott tough on the drug dealers, we are wasting our time. and that toughness includes the

death penalty. mark: the president has advanced the country zephyr it to fight the opioid a depth -- epidemic to include the border wall saying it would cut off the flow of illegal drugs and people that sell them. rexoing secretary of state tillerson is meeting at the state department today with cia director marcum pale, the man president trump has chosen to replace him. rex tillersonthis is the first knowg between the two men since president trump fired tillerson on twitter. tillerson has already handed over all authority to his deputy but remains secretary in name only until march 31. chief says the humanitarian needs have doubled kabul -- the u.n. aid chief says the humanitarian needs have thaned in kabul kabul and more

13 million people need aid and more than 2 million children are suffering from acute malnutrition. he also said the country is experiencing its worst outbreak of cholera in 15 years. no hard feelings with the saudi billionaire who was detained for several months in the anticorruption crackdown. the prince spoke to bloomberg's in an exclusive interview. i am for anticorruption in saudi arabia. unfortunately, i was part of that group but fortunately, i am out of that now and life is back to normal. i am not the person that will come to say that i forgive but do not forget. i forgive and forget. mark: you can watch the full tomorrow right here on bloomberg television. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i am mark crumpton and this is bloomberg. let us get a recap of today's market action. it was down for u.s. stocks but the nasdaq was the big loser losing one point 8% precipitated by a selloff in facebook and tech shares overall. fifthe s&p, it was the decline in six days. resuming a selloff. joe: it is looking ugly. especially on the tech side. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" uncertainty to one's advantage. an ideal skill for traders and investors and it is a skill highlighted by annie duke in her book, "thinking in bets." with us now is annie duke thank you for joining us. we will get to what investors and policy makers can learn from poker players that talk through your premise of thinking about

decisions like placing a batch. a 40% chance i will be correct and 60% chance i will be right. thinking in those terms. the decisions we make in life resembles the decisions you might make an poker versus chess . is a demand for certainty. there is not a lot of luck involved and you can see where all of the pieces are. in poker and in life, that is not true. there is a lot of is a demand fr certainty. hidden information. how the future will turn has a lot of luck involved. includesions could investing in something based on the beliefs that i have on an uncertain future. julia: are you accurately rating your influences? annie: you are trying to as much

as you can. the thing is we have blind spots to our own biases. if you think about your beliefs as being under construction, you will be less biased. joe: the difference between real-world decision-making and the poker table is that gambling, if you have a correction 52% of the time, you should always make it. even if you lose 48% of the time, you do it so many times over the games, as -- eventually it will do it itself. the big decisions in life, you do not get to repeat those thousands of times. you do not have that luxury. to what extent does it apply -- how do you change your decision-making based on that? annie: you do not so much in the

sense that you could think about over the course of your life, you are making thousands of decisions. the idea is to increase the probability that you have good outcomes from any decision that you make. can you run a single decision 10,000 times? no. this is in the aggregate. scarlet: i have not heard you say anything about luck or fortune. that comes up a lot. people do not like to acknowledge that there is a lot of luck driving the outcome of their decisions but how do you pull that out or think about that in your decision-making process? construct youran belief, if you have a less biased decision-making process, you have a better outcome. decision that will only have a 1% chance of some disastrous outcome but that can still happen. i take issue with the idea that

you can make your own luck. what i think is you can make better decisions and decrease the probability of bad outcomes. we do not have control of the luck factor. julia: can you give us an example and what are the obvious blind spots that some people to recognize? isie: the biggest blind spot resisting. because we can see the outcome, we know it is good or bad. itood example would be say, is the last play in the super bowl in 2015. he calls for a pass and it is intercepted. everyone screams it was the worst decision in super bowl history. but the chances of an interception was only about 1% or 2%. a small chance that was going to happen and maybe we should not have connected those things together.

there are people he made the right decision. i am not a football expert. but what we could say is that it was not the first -- the worst decision they could make. but what webut what we could sat was not the first -- the worst decision they could make. joe: too bad they could not play that super bowl a thousand times. julia: with life decisions, you have one shot at it. annie: what pete carroll would say is he made many good decisions over the history of his coaching career and that is why he got to the super bowl in the first place. any situatione where the variables that we can influence can turn out well. inie: i think a lot of times the moment we can make some reckless decisions and ther-the-fact we realize situation. doing some time traveling and

going into the future is a double edged sword. not going to were eat bread anymore and the bread comes to the table, think about whether you will regret eating the bread. and that includes investing or driving too fast. getting regret into the question can be health of. julia: a knotty question. -- aen or women better naughty question. are men or women better at this? women -- if they have good things happen to them, they think they got lucky and if bad things happen, they think it is their fault. this is a generalization but they are different. that explains a lot with the me too movement.

techniques that you have developed as a poker player is getting information whether it is reading people or paying up for information insert in ways. how do you apply that concept to real life so you can improve your odds? get --you do not want to i think you do want to get information hungry and ask the right questions. if you express uncertainty, you may be information hungry. also, if you address uncertainty to other people, they are more likely to share information with you. if i say that i know for sure that the market is going to go down tomorrow, you might not offer me information or an alternative opinion. helpful.

because then you improve the belief piece which is really helpful. the other thing is to make sure that you are asking questions with what i would call a neutral frame. i think the market will go down tomorrow, don't you? to get aore likely response. to get a response. you televised a championship with rock, paper, scissors. what you televised a championship with facilitated yy in being talented in winning these kinds of competitions? that is an instantaneous decision. is a lot of luck involved in rock, paper, scissors, number one. but as a poker player, you get trained to look for people's patterns. it is about trying to anticipate the next move.

just watching for patterns and hopefully, you guessed right. and get aing to bet feel for what kind of paper -- player you are. scarlet: when do you not use this approach? when you make a gut driven decision? annie: the answer is all the time. thiswhen you make a gut driven is the way our brains are built. our goal is not to think we are perfect at this. if we can increase our justion-making success by a few percentage points, that will be huge because it compounds. the answer is i make mistakes all the time, but just hopefully a little bit less. it but i'm watching for i also have really good people

to watch my back. scarlet: professional poker player, annie duke, thank you very much. we will tell you what this means for china and the world. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ "what'd you miss?" he said he was incorrect in saying the u.s. had ended formal economic dialogue with china. he said steven mnuchin and continues to hold private discussions with china. here now to discuss these mixed

messages is nicholas consonery. this?g of a faux pas was it is not that surprising. he said the dialogue talks had stalled and were going nowhere. the important take away is what it tells us about what the he saidadministration wants to e moving forward. they want to keep the door open for dialogue with china. on outstanding trade issues. the critical asked for china as well to show that the talks have momentum or could be resuscitated. the main concerns of the administration is intellectual property. nicholas: that is the primary complaint and criticism from the u.s. side. even the chinese government itself has recognized that it needs to make progress. this will be a big focus for the administration.

there has been a section about a section 301 case. there could potentially be some big penalties. a big story to watch. julia: where does this fit with the broad discussions? steve mnuchin is at the forefront of these discussions. and we had a report that china seems engaged in the prospect to significantly reduce the deficit. $100 billion was the number thrown around. $100 billion was the number thrown around. that would be huge. what a we know about china's willingness to engage at that kind of level? nicholas: the starting point is that china wants to avoid a trade war with the u.s. we know they want to engage at some level. will the trump administration be able to put forward a direct ask with -- for what china -- for what the u.s. wants china to bring to the table. -- they are clearly

looking at trade policy. they are eating made announcements in december that ony were lifting tariffs imported goods. -- they already made announcements in december that they were lifting tariffs on imported goods. julia: a direct point from elon musk. top central banker in china is a new person. tell us more about him. he is 60 years old and has a lot of experience with the central bank already. he is a known quantity. nicholas: this is a smart pick. economics from indiana in the u.s. for me, the story about where china is headed is what does it mean in terms of macroeconomic policy.

continuity. the new central bank governor. you have a new vice premier who seems to be close to the chinese president. and they have economic challenges. the question is will they integrate some needed reforms ahead? joe: in the u.s. we talk about unwinding stimulus, in the u.s. there is so much talk about deleveraging. ?hat is the role of the pboc nicholas: they have a critical role to play. there has been some? recent structural announcement this week putting them in the driver state of mick -- driver seat of managing the risks. regulatory critical function but i think more importantly, they also have a tone setting function. the outgoing central bank governor has been the lead proponent in china

for a decade or more. this is about setting the tone. scarlet: he has some big shoes to fill. he will not have the same profile that the other man did. candidates out some with high profiles. including the communist party chief. does that create any tension in terms of what the central banker --ds to do if there is -- if nicholas: the critical issue is the empowerment of the central bank. we think of this institution is becoming more autonomous. we generally think that we want its itsve autonomy in decision-making capacity. he may not have the political

seniority but this will be about the priorities of the chinese president and where he wants to focus. if they decide the financial reform issues are the more important, i think they will be able to make progress. about thes is consolidation of power for the chinese president and his number two. and they will tell everyone what to do. this argues that point. remember, there is likely to be several more terms for the chinese president. nicholas consonery, thank you for joining us. he is with the rhodium group. and a programming note. on wednesday, join joe and myself for the first-ever rate decision and news conference. we will be speaking with former fed officials plus jeff rosenberg of blackrock.

starts at 1:00 p.m. on wednesday. "the fed decides." this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news. the secretary-general at the organization of economic development supports a proposal by the eu to support a cross-border tax on eu revenue. this is about how you tax an increasingly -- economy. the corner is on offering digital services. they are delivering.

you can order through the internet. how do you capture that? otherwise, ministers run the risk of a very fast eroding fiscal base. julia: at&t began its high-stakes court battle today. the trump administration is --ing the case against it the application is critical to at&t's plans. the lawsuit between the u.s. and the nation's biggest phone company is the first major antitrust case under president donald trump. alibaba is prepared to give up southeast asia without a fight. iny have invested $2 million group.ada for aa is beefing up

battle in the region after amazon launched in singapore. alibaba are ready spent $2 million to purchase lazada. joe: coming up, what you need to know for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: doordash a selloff off -- scarlet: "what'd you miss?" a selloff in stocks. the federal reserve begins its two-day discussion of interest rate and it is the first meeting for chairman jay powell. a white house meeting. a term offensive. u.k. cpi data will be released tomorrow. that does it for "what'd you miss?" joe: have a great evening. joe: have a great evening. this retail. under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store

near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver.

♪ mark: i am mark crumpton and you are watching "bloomberg technology". and you today president trump warned penalties to drug