hour. the past and present optimist, neil dutta of renaissance macro. -- jimmy dean sausage will cost more in shanghai. we thought that was funny. after a caravan of easter bunnies left easter bunnies, the president sends greetings to mexico -- no nafta, and the wall now. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i am tom keene and for lisa abramowicz in for francine. the president tweeting in for all of easter, it is almost shocking. lisa: yes, people were surprised, and i heard that the yield curve was blossoming. i knew i had to come in here -- flattening. i knew i had to come in here. tom: there is a tweet this morning.

doing very little if not nothing to stop people from flowing into mexico, through their southern border. then into the u.s., they laugh at our dumb immigration laws. they must stop the big drug and people flows or i will stop their cash flow -- nafta. meanwhile. -- need wall. right now with our first word news compares taylor riggs. taylor: china is willing to do more trade talks with u.s. to prevent relations from getting worse. commerce ministry said they did not respond last week for requests for consultation. china also said previously announced retaliatory measures on imports to effect today. as you are mentioning, tom, president trump is threatening to pull out of nafta. in an easter sunday tweet, he wants to dump the agreement of mexico does not stop people from flowing into the u.s. he also says border patrol agent's are not able to do their

jobs because of what he calls ridiculous liberal laws from democrats. in north korea, you can call it came popped in pharmacy. kim jong-un -- k pop diplomacy. surpriseun's appearance in pyongyang comes a month before the summit of the two koreas. he is repairing for an unprecedented meeting with president trump. in costa rica, a probate pro-gay marriage politician has unexpectedly been elected. he had campaigned on -- his opponent had campaigned on his opposition of same-sex marriage. he claims to take action on costa rica's deficit. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. lisa, tom? tom: taylor, thank you so much. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities right now. let's look at the data.

futures at -8. dow futures -87. urve flattening from 50 basis points to 47 basis points. not much else going on. the next screen, if you would, and the vix reaches out 21.04. a big thursday that we saw with the dow. bitcoin was a 6000 handle when i walked in the door this morning. lisa: unbelievable. i do want to talk about k pop diplomacy. you can see the dollar losing to the korean won for the first time in many years. this is fascinating. this is a great story. it has been a hedge fund disaster. less corn, and that leads to bigger things.

i thought the bitcoin was interesting because it was going down. thursday to friday, painful to say the least. that is where we are right now. a chart of the lisa abramowicz is here, someone truly up to speed. we are down, but now we are down with some investing. how does the chairman look at it? lisa: the u.s. is issuing so many treasury bills, you know, blah, blah, blah. a lot are wondering if this is indicating some sort of policy error. tom: do you have a chart or not? lisa: i do have a chart, looking at a short-term $11.4 billion. tom: this is major complicated for monday. lisa: it is not complicated. there is $1.5 billion. tom: that is green.

lisa: yes. people want cash again. cash is providing yields again. tom: very good. we will leave it there this morning. we have a lot more for you, including this chart matters. in china, what matters, i guess, is the trade war. tom is with bloomberg intelligence, with us this morning. tom, is it a trade war in beijing? tom: i think so, tom. we will have to call it a trade skirmish. we have had president trump talking about importson 50 billion from china. we had 3 billion, certainly nothing here, which really starts to look like an economically damaging trade war. tom: we will turn to neil dutta now of renaissance macro.

neil dutta with us, who i truly call it a great optimist. he had the courage when nobody else did you say you know what, we will get economic growth. day --to kevin the other 3.1% average three-quarter growth. is it "make america great again," can we sustain that kind of gdp? neil: well, it is going to be tough, particularly with these downside risks, trade skirmishes, as tom put it. i think the u.s. economy has a lot of momentum right now, and you are seeing that in things like business investment. companies are more optimistic, id that optimism, think, is encouraging them to spend more on plant equipment and software. that is a healthy sign. lisa: neil, i am wondering whether markets are overreacting

to tariffs, the fact that it has been more bark than bite. what do you think? neil: that is always the case. markets always overreact. the question is what is priced in and what the optimism is going to be. i think the markets jumped the gun. if you look at what they are talking about, there is potentially a fraction of goods, you know, in terms of intra-china u.s. trade. it is nothing i'm particularly worried about. lisa: jimmy dean sausages are on the hit list. i know tom's very upset about this. pork sausages. just to give you a sense of what is on this list that beijing put out -- dry fruits, ginseng, nu tes, wine, $3 billion of goods. this is nothing. this is a pimple on the overall

trade balance between the u.s. and china. does this indicate that beijing is not willing to turn this into a real sort of skirmish? neil: what is interesting is when you have an action like putting on tariffs, everyone universally agrees that that is bad for the united states, right? that seems to be the case. so if tariffs are bad for the country that are proposing the tariffs, why would the country retaliate in the first place? tom: from where you stand as a great economic optimists, you have got a fed moving in a new, dark way, but is the backdrop here protecting protectionism, which is actually mercantilism? ell, i think we are moving a little bit more in a protectionist direction. tom: does it make you less than optimist? neil: at the margin, yes. but the u.s. in and of itself is a massive free trade zone.

we produce cars in the south, steel in the upper midwest, and there are no tariffs between new york and california. that in and of itself is something we should recognize, that the u.s. itself is a big free trade zone. tom: we look at domestic gdp, net exports, which is a huge china factor. do you partition those in your optimism and say net exports have been a drag? neil: they have been a drag, because the u.s. is slower than partners, anding we have an increasing fiscal deficit. it puts pressure on a trade deficit to widen. in some respects with the administration is trying to do is pushing against each other. tom: let's get a window into beijing. let's go back to tom orlik, who is in beijing with bloomberg intelligence. i guess you have the technology straightened out. , as youhe skirmish

call it, is there a conversation going on between the two nations? tom o: you know, tom, the reality is there is not much of a conversation going on right now. my sense is that the trump administration's view is that dialogue over the last decade, two decades has not proved fruitful from the united state'' point of view, so my sense is the strategy at this point is really to threaten and to act and to demand a response from going to thethan negotiating table and trying to talk things out. is there an important lesson in the small scope of the retaliatory measures of china? $3 billion is not a lot. tom o: yeah. i think the reality, lisa, is china's a huge beneficiary from the current trade relationship. the current trade balance with the u.s. remains extremely positive. they don't want to poke the bear.

they don't push the trump administration into more protectionism than they are already engaged in, which is what you see this measured, arsenic, small response. i think it is also true that china is enjoying this moment where they can strike the world stage as the kind of adult in the room, the advocate to the open market. tom: right. as anust to use pork example, which is vital to the agriculture and food system of they, where they can get -- where can they get the pork if they do not buy it from the united states of america? tom o: that is an important question, but china is a massive producer of pork at home, and that production overtime could be ramped up to offset less imports from the united states. they reality is that across many of the things which china buys from the u.s., soybeans -- they can get those from brazil -- airplanes -- they can get those

from airbus in the european union. what that means is that the u.s. moves in a unilateral way and the rest of the will does not act against china, the impact on china's economy is actually going to be rather small. tom: very good. tom orlik, we appreciate it this morning, from his evening in beijing. neil dutta will stay with us from renaissance macro. we will look at dynamics of the american economy. in the next hour, marc chandler of brown brothers harriman will be with us. kevin cirilli will join us. as well.iere lisa abramowicz and tom keene. this is bloomberg. ♪

taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance."

i am taylor riggs. it was good to the bloomberg business flash. alibi the has acquired another company. ithas not said how much paid. alibaba had already owned 43% of ele.me. it has been gearing up for local delivery of food and other services. differenty be facing threats to the same solution. the person familiar with the matter says they are considering a closer relationship to consumers at or near their home. humana's rivals are striking deals to create one-stop shop superstars. ball rain discovered its biggest hrain discovered its biggest oil shale reserves office west coast. agency's central news

says they find dwarfs what it currently has. and tesla wants to bolster its numbers it is about to report. a fatal crash involving tesla's driver assisted system. creditowngraded its rating down into junk. that is your bloomberg business flash. lisa, tom? tom: taylor, thank you so much. the only good news on april is on a sunday. westerday's april fools' was maybe the president putting out a tweet. our kevin cirilli, chief washington correspondent, kevin, what is the president's gold this april? i think it all comes down

to trade, tom. with the response from china over the weekend, it is hitting home to several republican lawmakers all across the country , who are on recess this week, who are waking up to the new reality of if it is not a trade war, then what is it? there is a question in the business community about what issident trump's end goal with regards to the trade policies. some sections of the economy like what he is doing. they wanted a where he is going with this with regards to trade. tom: do you have an analysis yet over the weekend and the news sunday, monday, in china of the pork dynamic in america? is there a certain senator, certain sector of house members that are affected by pork in beijing? kevin: it is interesting because when you talk to someone like chuck grassley go my republican from iowa, chairman of the oficiary committee, a member all the committees that are

investigating not only the russia situation but also increasingly silicon valley and mark zuckerberg, it is going to be interesting to see where they are, because senator grassley has tweeted out and been openly critical of the administration's trade policies on this front. let's not forget there are some financial institutions headquartered in des moines. this is a really interesting time right now, because the issue of trade has divided republicans. let's not forget also that it has also divided democrats as well with this protectionism vs. globalism trade policy. lisa: kevin, does washington, d.c. care about president trump's tweets on trade right now? kevin: yes and no. i think that the business community does. i think that certain lawmakers do, because they see where this is going. democrataking with a strategist on friday while i was in new york, and i can tell you that how this is going to reshape the democratic trade

abate, you know, you once had situation where the standard of living was very much kind of in line with what president trump ran on in terms of trade come over moving from nafta, for example, but now you have the resurgence of some democrats who are saying hey, wait a minute, that is not the kind of trade policy that we want to see. really dramatic pendulum shift that could reshape 2018 midterms as well as 2020, when you look further ahead. lisa: thank you so much, kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. neil dutta of renaissance macro staying with us. for more stories, they sure to pick up the current issue of "bloomberg businessweek." cover story -- volkswagen's great escape. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: i am lisa abramowicz with tom keene in new york. we call each other when the 210 below 50.lls it is now at 47 .5, a new low in the post-crisis era. right now, i want to bring in neil dutta of renaissance macro research. does this confronted yield curve fed is going tighter? neil: i don't think so. i think i was asked to this last year and this same time

figure before that. is it inverted or not? lisa: you don't care? neil: not really. i think financial conditions have tightened somewhat. in terms of the yield curve flattening, the yield curve usually does flatten in a fed tightening cycle. the question is how quickly does it flatten. right now, remember, investors are not really getting compensated for duration because the term premium, as everyone knows, is basically negative. that may actually muddy the signal of the yield curve to some extent. i also think the yield curve right now is probably a little bit too flat. that is because, i think, it is underestimating what economic growth is. the cleveland fed does an interesting exercise where they do the yield curve and try to forget what it means before gdp, fourth quarters or so. right now, the yield curve is basically real gdp growth of about 1.5% over the next year.

i mean, good luck with that forecast. lisa: what does this mean about unemployment? neil: i do not really think it means anything for unemployment. for me, financial conditions are still fairly accommodative. interest rates have backed up a little bit at the long end. rate-sensitive sectors like housing, despite this backup in interest rates, we have seen mortgage applications up about 8.5% over the last year. to me, that with suggests that this does not back up into rates, user costs for housing remains low, and that is good for the overall economy. tom: is it is price that we have a fed that gives speeches and all of that before three rate hikes? neil: i do not know if they will migrate from 4% to 3%, because they are not yet at 4%. they are at 3%. i think they will leave the forecast in place. most of what we have seen in

terms of fed hawkishness is really those that look for 2% looking up to 3%. i do not think we have really seen that much in terms of -- we have seen somewhere from 3% to 4%. i think it is going to come down to inflation, and i do not think inflation is much of an issue right now. tom: we have wage growth as well to look at. we will do that on friday with the nation's job report as well. neil dutta with renaissance macro is with us. coming up in a bit, with amazon and all the uproar about mr. bezos and mr. trump, eileen burbidge joins us in london. stay with us. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: i am lisa abramowicz in new york with tom keene. elon musk caused quite a stir in the twitterverse yesterday.

"tesla goes bankrupt," he tweeted. despite intense money, to raise including a last-ditch mass sale of easter eggs, we are sad to or that tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt. a lot of people are questioning why a ceo of a public company that is clearly under a lot of duress, stocks have been tanking, have the worst week -- you have to wonder -- what is the rationale here? tom: bring uptom: the screen here. let's show the reality of the financials of tesla. lisa: it fell flat. maybe it ring a little too true. $1 billion light, another $3 billion late, still looking at negative cash flow, and there are some other elements we will not go into right now, but there are some real western.

-- real questions. withis a car company, and all the recent challenges, you really wonder. lisa: it was not met with laughter. .om: there it was right now with first word news, here is taylor riggs. taylor: china says some previously announced tariffs on imports to the effect of a, $3 billion with of american products, one, and certain fruits. it was in response to the on steel andcan aluminum. china's space love mostly burned reentry. according to the u.s. military, it gathered remaining pieces over the southern pacific. israel is threatening to use greater force to stop violent palestinian protests along the gaza strip quarter.

prime minister benjamin netanyahu is rejecting allegations that use excessive firepower against illustrations that left at least 16 palestinians that. those protests -- dead. those protest were planned at peak action. -- thehulkin administration says shulkin left the job willingly in the middle of an ethics scandal could whether he was quit or was fired could be relevant to president trump's ability to name and acting secretary to temporarily fill the job. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. tom, lisa? lisa: thank you so much, taylor. mentioning, u.s. president donald trump attacked the online retail giant amazon the second time in one week. now the latest is that this company is scanning the u.s. postal service.

eileen burbidge joins us now of passion capital. she is a partner there. where is the truth and what president trump is tweeting? eileen: i think it is always hard to tell with what president trump says, but he is talking about should amazon increase the they wouldhipping, make a lot more money, so he is talking about an opportunity that he believes the company is expecting. -- and obviously the company itself, as well as the regulatory commission and the space -- has said agreements with amazon are profitable on shipping. actually, there are probably issues the u.s. postal service is are facing are related to mail.e in u first class lisa: what should we be looking for here? eileen: literally, every time the president tweet,

with china, it could affect taxes. companies pay a lot state-by-state and sales tax, but it is questionable whether they are paying their share of tax.al it could look at the regulatory commission and try to insist on more favorable rates or contracts with the company, but more realistically, there is not much else that i think it can do. it is probably going to have to start looking at other areas, which is what people want big government to look at for company such as facebook and google. sorry, tom. tom: good morning. that thee a bargain president probably has never read an essay or taken a course on network theory. the question is amazon, like a lot of the technology companies, changed the distribution model of whatever product they are working with. when you say remove from amazon, do you see any end to the devastation of bricks and mortar? eileen: i would not call it devastation -- tom: eileen, stop!

i walked on lexington avenue in in the areaterday, where lisa abramowicz hangs out -- lisa: oh! [laughs] and every other store is empty. the president is right on this. they are having a different issue. lisa: i think that is a different issue. eileen: i was going to say tom is always trying to get me in a corner, whether it is cricket or anything else. but first class mail is going down, and that is marketing, birthday cards, greetings. that is more related to events on facebook vanity is on amazon. and let's be real -- the real elephant in the room here is owns the bezos "washington post," and for most of us, that is probably the reason why donald trump is not happy with the company. tom: how would you suggest that mr. bezos will respond to this? not so much in hiring more lobbyists or whatever, but what is going to be a strategy to get beyond the president's angle on

the future of amazon and retail? eileen: he has been pretty consistent so far about just ignoring the president. i think what this will force them to do is build up their own distribution and fulfillment, whether that is going to be drones, its own delivery and dispatch -- they are just going to not need to rely on the post office anymore. i am not sure that is going to make anything any better for trump. lisa: i mean i want to get your thoughts on a "new york times" article over the weekend, looking at how amazon is trying to listen to you through the echo devices. do you think the government will interfere with that? eileen: that is sort of what i was alluding to earlier. there is not much you can do about what trump tweets about and trying to improve bricks and mortar or the u.s. postal service, but you have to look at data privacy, data protection much the same you would with any other text giant, so google, facebook, apple, netflix. the u.s. might need to look at

things happening with gdpr and other solutions coming out to try to protect data privacy more. tom: eileen burbidge, thank you so much, with passion capital. we have got with us neil dutta of renaissance macro, also greg valliere, chief political strategist at horizon. i will go to you first, then mr. valliere. i am sorry that bricks and mortar is devastating. i see it coast-to-coast. what is the impact of that on america? i get it -- jobs are moving over to amazon -- but there is a tangible emptiness to our retail stores. neil: yeah. in many respects -- this is getting a little political, but in terms of -- if you look at the distribution of the brick-and-mortar closing, they trump states the

-- lisa: what about amazon? done ahere was a study few years ago looking at the impact of amazon on brick-and-mortar sales, and they basically showed when there was a sales tax introduced, the brick-and-mortar business went up substantially. you can make the case that amazon have a physical presence in most states, but maybe back taxes? that is something to think about. valliere, i look at everything that is going on and the fact is the president has a huge residence here, not only with his core but with a lot of america that sees md storefronts. empty storefronts. think thethings -- i candle industry was interrupted when we introduced the light pole.

the candle industry never recovered. this happens with the economy. number two, this is now the headline risk president. everywhere you look, amazon, trade with nafta countries, trade with china -- everywhere you look, we are now entering a period of headline risk. any: but greg, are there policy implications and president trump's tweets? greg: there is a risk that we do not negotiate successfully on the big story with china -- not worth-- but $60 billion . if there is not issues with china's bravery of our intellectual property, it does become a concern for markets. lisa: who is president trump trying to cater to? greg: he is catering to the "roseann" territory, to bethlehem, pa, to youngstown, ohio. that is his base.

when they hear him talk aggressively about nafta, it is greg,to their ears. lisa: going forward, what do we have to do to determine whether this is realistic o threats or something to look forward to in the midterm? greg: the things i would be looking at her auto tariffs, intellectual property, they have got to make some concessions, or this thing gets worse. tom: i want to come back and brought it out to greater washington as well. lisa's point about the present basically watching "fox and friends" and moving out whatever he sees on there. can he sustain that into the first tuesday of november? campaign messages that off of one television show and one cultural moment, or does he have the ability to broaden out? greg: it is bizarre, isn't it, tom? he listens to something on fox yesterday, easter sunday morning, he starts ranting about immigrants. he saw something on fox.

he has been hinting he might not even need a chief of staff. so yes, two as question, he can continue this through election day. it is going to be bizarre. i think the big risk for investors is the headline risk. tom: we will come back with neil dutta as well. lisa, the biggest problem yesterday when the president was tearing mexico apart, i was just trying to use table manners for the youngest offspring. i went down in flames. lisa: what did you do? tom: elbows on the table, the napkin was on the floor -- lisa: never come to my house. it is much worse. tom: let me say about radio this morning, a good briefing coast-to-coast -- robert moon and karen moskow, "bloomberg daybreak" coast-to-coast, radio thisn as well, it across nation, nation of table manners, serious xm channel 119. this is bloomberg. ♪

good morning, everyone. lisa abramowicz and tom keene, "bloomberg surveillance" in new york. francine off for the week. she will join us again on friday with an important conversation from italy. neil dutta with us from renaissance macro and greg valliere with us from horizon investments. one of our advantages is to re on with mr. vallie any given moment, and on this april, he turns to the always contentious florida. i am fascinated by the democratic senator william nelson and also rick scott. scott-nelson, is this going to be a closer race? greg: you bet, tom.

you could do a doctorate thesis on the upcoming senate race. one big factor is the influx of puerto ricans, presumably voting for democrats, is a florida. you have the shooting, which scott handled well. you have nelson, a moderate, well-regarded but maybe lacking a little bit in pizzazz, and you have scott was tons of money, support from the white house. if scott wins, it will be a big victory for trump. tom: the president is going to slide down for governor scott in pensacola. i don't think he can do it in miami or in palm beach, where you are every weekend. i do not even think he can do it in orlando. does mr. scott need the president to campaign for him? greg: absolutely. i think he does. i think trump is still pretty popular in that state. that is one of many races -- i will say this, tom, if the election were tomorrow instead of six months from now, i think the democrats almost certainly would take the house. senate is still a very tough call. lisa: what is the practical

implication to say scott does win? think it will be a sign that the republicans can hold onto a lot of the key electoral states. you still have polls showing that trump is strong in ohio, pennsylvania. texas,can hold on to florida, you can see the makings of an electoral college map that can get him reelected. reg, i want to change gears to the buzz over the weekend -- we will do it over the next hour with kevin cirilli, but robert kaplan talked about republican real politics, of being pragmatic. is the president of the united states anything like a kaplan state department type? is the president into real politics, or is that just beyond him? , he makes it up as he goes along. he stuns his advisers daily.

saieh, for example, "we are going to get out of syria." nobody saw that coming. on issues like nafta, he is closer to the democrats than republicans. tom: we see testimony from mr. pompeo and also the new head of the cia -- those are two big testimonies coming up in april. what do you expect to see if the democrats respond to those two candidates? greg: i think both of them will get a public flogging. i think they will be criticized over the trump policies, which have alienated so many foreign allies. i think they both get confirmed, but it will be close, and it will take probably 3, 4 months. lisa: deal, i want to bring you in here. bomb thrower, unpredictable, what does this do for markets? greg: constituents love it, the markets don't come as i said in the previous segment. this is now the headline risk president. we will wake up every morning is

a what did he say about amazon, on.on and investors are enjoying great fun of metals. we do get a report on friday, but when it comes to headline risks, that is the great, unquantifiable wildcard. tom: the unquantifiable, greg, is me figuring out how to fly francine into tampa, florida, and you, me, and francine can go to a steakhouse. that is what we need to do to research the election. greg: i agree. tom: greg valliere, thank you so much. neil dutta, listening to all of this political back and forth. i know you will tell me the economy does not matter, but at some point, politics matters. politics matters, but if you look at what the markets are saying right now about -- tom: they don't care. neil: they don't care, but i would also say a democratic victory in the house is quite akin to the prediction markets. the last time i checked, i think it was like 50% odds.

so you basically have gridlock for a couple more years. does anyone really doubt the idea that most of what was going to be done on the fiscal side in d.c. is already done? that happened in the first year. vol issues onall trade, and really, you will probably see more issues on foreign policy, i think, than matters that relate to the domestic economy here. lisa: "markets don't care." neil dutta of renaissance macro, greg valliere of horizon investments. both are staying with us. if you want, you can go to tv on the bloomberg terminal. click on links, contact us strictly. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- contact us directly. this is bloomberg. ♪

taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." high-end am taylor riggs. was get the bloomberg business flash. willthe weekend, tesla manufacture and deliver its model three sedan. it wants to also the number it is about to deliver to investors. investors are getting rattled after a car crashed with tesla's

driver assistant program. moody's downgraded tesla it to junk. the all-cash offer would give u.s. a hold in sweden's residential real estate market. director steven spielberg has given warner bros. its first number one debut of the year. took in $21r one" million to top the weekend box office in the u.s. and canada. going into the weekend, warner bros. was fifth among ticket sales among the major studios. that is your bloomberg business flash. lisa, tom? tom: taylor, thank you. i got marching orders to see spielberg's latest. neil dutta with us. we have a chart that pushes against the dutta optimism. there it is.

we know itll end as or do you relate fiscal deficits with trade deficits? is that a productive exercise? neil: remember that the physical state of the u.s. economy is half of the budget deficit and trade deficit. the question is what direction they are going in and what that means for the dollar. tom: what is your call on the dollar over the next two years, then? neil: i take a bit of a contrary or view on it. i think the dollar has strengthened somewhat. i think the u.s. economy in terms of differentials is improving relative to the rest of the world. look, it is ambiguous. we know in theory if you have twinned of us is puts downward pressure on the dollar. look at what happened in the 1980's. that was the era of the super dollar. sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. lisa: what does the budget of sister to curb growth in the u.s.? neil: i don't think we are at that point.

people talk about crowding out of investment. it is interesting to see people sort of flip and do a 180 in terms of -- oh, my god, all of a sudden, we are crowding out investment. i will not name names here -- lisa: you can. neil: larry summers is one. he has already been wrong. saw overent that we the last several months, and up until recently -- full circle,e come average gdp, 2.1%, you nailed it versus so many others. neil: the increasing budget deficit means we have some tax legislation posted. i think economic optimism in the private sector, if anything, we will see a crowded in of business investors. companies expect strong gdp growth. chart up if you would your neil dutta, thank you

so much, of renaissance macro. he is charging gasoline up on a 30-year bond. chart up sot this lisa abramowicz will stay around for another hour. it is a 30-year bond price change. we usually do not that on "surveillance," but we are doing that just for lisa abramowicz so she will stick around another hour. this is fun. lisa abramowicz and tom keene getting started on your april. a good way to get a briefing on that, particularly on dynamics. marc chandler of brown brothers will be with us. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: this morning, the fed on a path to raise rates.

this april 2, further curve flattening. this hour, your u.s. dollar and marc chandler of brown brothers harriman. china reacts over the weekend on hydrogenn on one -- on 100 items. pork will cost more in shanghai. easter baskets on the southern border, northern border. no nafta, need wall now, the president tweets. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live from our world headquarters in new york. francine is not here. lisa abramowicz is here. you bring brilliantly have the tesla tweet over the weekend. elon musk jokes over being bankrupt. lisa: he got pilloried. he could not raise enough easter eggs, he cannot sell them enough. tom: that chart was the price of the bond. lisa: you cannot access the

unsecured debt market right now. on: we will do a lot more that and of course international relations news as well. kevin cirilli is scheduled to join us later in the hour. here is taylor riggs with first word news. taylor: china and more trade talks with u.s. to prevent relations from getting worse. the commerce ministry said the u.s. did not respond to his request last week for a consultation on washington's news deal on element tariffs. the previously announced to tell retaliate terry measures -- retaliatory measures took effect. the president took to an easter does noteet, "nafta stop people and drugs from floating into the u.s. " he also says border patrol agents are not able to do their jobs from what he calls "ridiculous, liberal laws from democrats." in costa rica, a pro-gay marriage politician has

been elected in a landslide. polls predict carlos alvarado would lose to his opponent, who had campaigned on his opposition to same-sex marriage. alvarado is a former labor activist who promises to take action on costa rica's record deficit. tim john kuhn'some -- kim parents -- koppa pop appearance as he prepares for a meeting with president trump. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. lisa, tom? tom: taylor, thanks so much. in the control room, taken no, i need a briefing on k pop. do you know about k pop? lisa: of course i do. tom: was this what was going on

a couple of years ago? "gangnam style." i am getting it right now. let's do a data check and save ourselves here. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. it is mostly curve flattening. that is a stunning number -- 46.70 basis points. the higher two-year yield maybe flattened onto the next green with futures a little light, vix 29.7. there is the close on thursday on the doubt. bitcoin under 7000 for the day. lisa, what do you have? lisa: i want to talk about k-pop diplomacy. core futures up again, surprising whole bunch of hedge funds. corn is a big deal right now. tom: i was looking at pork earlier. the prices on pork would rise after the chinese

tariffs issue. how about this? this chart matters. the basic idea here is the wesident's election come up go, steeper yield curve, and there is a long-term downtrend in this curve, more flattening. we come down. we will throw that on twitter sometime this morning. lisa, what do you have? lisa: people are going into cash again. i am looking at etf's that focuses on very short-term bonds. tom: is that two years? yes, 2016. $1.5 billion going into that find in one week. cash is active again. tom: right now, your briefing on washington this morning with our chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. is there an easter egg event on the white house lawn this year? kevin: well, there have not been these types of traditions that

we have seen and the president celebrating the holiday in mar-a-lago over the weekend. there is no question about it -- if there is an easter egg event, will there be any pork? over the weekend, the chinese development regarding trade policies -- that is what the buzz here in washington is and the reality that the lawmakers who are waking up in their districts and in their state capitals all across the country today are faced with. is thethin that, kevin, idea of trade deficits. does it have the president's attention? he has a lot of distractions right now. is he really focus on a tit-for-tat with china? kevin: yes, he is, and the comes, to the bill wildermuth of wall street -- what is president trump's end game? of walle bewilderment street -- what is the president's and game on this? you look at the boeings, the

harley davidsons, they are not supportive of this as well. base ofplayed to the the trump movement, not necessarily to the base of the republican party movement, but to the base of the trump movement. tom: rhino, a "surveillance" --right now, a "surveillance" berection, mr. cirilli will on the white house lawn looking for eggs. lisa: who will be dressed as the easter bunny? [laughter] tom: i don't want to go there. lisa: kevin, i want to talk to a little bit about the china tariffs. they give us a little hint to the u.s. at what point will it matter, it is the u.s. bracing for something more? pinch from china is a response to try to figure out what the policy coming from the u.s. will be. this is a lot of fiery rhetoric

from the trump administration, but we still do not have the specifics as to what exactly they will do. it was almost like an opening day, they were waiting to see what the chinese response would be. this could get interesting when you look at things, for example, like the cynthia's ruling -- ius ruling. when i was in new york last week, that is the main takeaway. there is this wondering of what the the end game before republican administration. will chuck grassley or even a democrat like heidi heitkamp come up for reelection, what will the pressure be that they are putting on the administration to get into some that, yes, does help the american worker, but also face of the reality of globalism that we are facing. tom: kevin cirilli, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it this

morning. global head ofs currency strategy at brown brothers. he authored number of books, including a brilliant book as well. we are going to get to this in the next block, but i have to get the brown brothers harriman call on this huge ambiguity of the u.s. dollar. weak dollar or strong dollar? marc: ok, yes, it is going to be strong, but it is already falling to new lows. the dollar is rising, new lows for the year ahead of the weekend, also last. so it is a nuanced analysis. you cannot just say "the dollar." marc: exactly. new lows for the year against the yen, the dollar yen is moving from one of 4.5 last week back to 107.5, consolidating now.

i think the dollar trading down is like buckets. lisa: what is your dollar-related call? marc: trade wars -- it is not a driver for the dollar. the driver for the dollar will go back to the monetary policy. tom: we will dive into this with esther chandler. chandler.ay -- mr. i cannot say enough of his linking all of this into foreign-exchange. we will continue on international relations. we bring you a briefing this morning from kim wallace of the eurasia group on washington and the many policies that washington confronts in this second quarter. futures -6. stay with us worldwide. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ taylor: this is "bloomberg

surveillance."i am taylor riggs good let's get the bloomberg business flash . in china, alibaba is buying up delivery start up elem.me. it,s nothing how much of but the value isn't about 9.5 billion dollars. alibaba had previously owned a . itm is trying to enter the fast-growing market ofe. food and other delivery services. walmart, duquesne solutions. acquainted person with the matter, they are considering a closer relationship to provide care to consumers at or near their homes. amazon has taken aim at walmart by taking customers out of it stores. meanwhile, humana's rival is in talks to create one-stop health superstores. the smallest energy producer in ahrain,sian gulf, whilb

set oil and gas was discovered off its west coast. elon musk still has a sense of humor after the worst month for tesla shares in more than seven years. ceoelectric carmaker's jokingn april fools joke about going bankrupt. tesla's shares fell 22% into march. moody's cut the credit rating farther into junk status. that is your bloomberg business flash. lisa, tom. tom: right now, we will surprise you. marc chandler with us of brown brothers harriman. 180as been on the watch for of them. he is a wonderful author, including his latest book on the astronomy of the system. what is the astronomy of the u.s. dollar now, the figure, the vision picture of currency?

marc: a lot of people are at a turning point. the dollar rally came through, 2016, dollar fell out of bed last year. softerar, it has a sta tone. people have given up on a bullish dollar. to me, the key level to watch for, 1.26. tom: i want you to explain this. you did not just say this because lisa is on the site today -- as a currency guy, you are watching the post-10 spread. curve -- bringld up the chart. here is the chart we showed earlier, like, 10 minutes ago. is a foreign-exchange guy looking at the spread? marc: the fed recently did a newsletter to talk about how is.d the yield curve still a lot of people are trying to play that down as insignificant. secondly, the u.s. economy showed a lot of symptoms of being late cycle. if we look at the yield curve,

one of the indicators that tells us the u.s. economy has maybe seen better days in this economic expansion. wely 2020, fiscal stimulus are getting from the white house, giving us a little bit of late cycle expansion, but nothing changes the game plan, really. lisa: neil dutta, who was on in the earlier hour, said the yield curve is flat, but he does not care. do you agree? not inverted yet. people like myself have to look not just where we are today but anticipate where we are going to be. the federal reserve is going to hike rates at least two more times this year. the risk is we're heading toward a flattening yield curve. what is going to happen not just this year, this week, but 2019, 2020? lisa: when we talk what the dollar, we have to talk about the live are ois spread. do you see this is any kind of thrust in the banking system? how do you interpret this? marc: it is one of the key

questions, because we have already seen libor rising. countries cannot take care of it. hong kong, saudi arabia, china struggling with the currency of the short end. i tend to be more persuaded that this is more technical in nature, having to do with tax reform. the repatriation of money. foreign businesses borrowing from their parents. all these factors i think pushing up libor, as well as the fed raising interest rates. lisa: when does libor start to go back down? marc: i do not think it does. it is moving sideways at an elevated level. they will can -- the federal reserve will continue to raise interest rates. 2007, 2008, let's go back there. bloomberg radio will see this as well. up, up we go. your key idea as we move hire as we will sustain higher.

is that a super stress proxy or not? do you care right now? marc: it is a chinese issue. offshore, rmbrmb onshore, and part of this ois libor spread is telling us that dollars are moving from offshore onshore. that is from the european deposits, asian deposits into the u.s. market. we see the tax bill, the senate's structure, and the t-bills issues. tom: i will go with the cash bill as a one-off characteristic, but what happens once the money comes back? marc: then the libor stays elevated because the federal reserve is raising interest rates. tom: this is television. you have to have a longer answer. [laughter] will narrowtretch primarily because ois will continue to creep up on libor against a blessing. tom: you have a contrarian

view that everyone's onboard weak dollar, and you are saying maybe not. marc: maybe not. until we get through, like, 1.26 in the euro, i'm still thinking it is a correction in nature. tom: corporations blow up -- is that the story for next year, that corporations are too smart for their own good, and hedges blow up for foreign exchange? marc: i think it will be slower cosmeticd a sort of a adjustment to earnings, buying back shares. tom: i love that. "cosmetic adjustment to earnings." i'm trying to get marc chandler anniversary of brown brothers harriman. we will continue with mr. chairman on dollar dynamics. a lot coming up. is coming up of cfr.

stay with us. lisa abramowicz and tom keene from new york, new york. if you of washington. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- a view of washington. kevin cirilli already has the gucci easter egg. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ lisa: i am lisa abramowicz here with tom keene in new york to a drinking his coffee, preparing for the egg hunt. as the u.s. federal reserve raises rates, there are signs that consumers could be finding themselves in peril. marc chandler, head of brown

we were justiman, talking about how the u.s. economy maybe not as good as some people think. tie consumer debt into this, given the fact that we have seen indices starting to pick up. marc: three indicators show us the u.s. economy is in late cycle. first, the 12-month moving average of nonfarm payrolls peaked in 2016 almost 100,000 higher than the current 12-month average. lateverage indicator of cycle is auto sales piercing story. 12-month moving average also turning down. third factor, you mentioned to liquidity on credit cars going up. this is another thing, late cycle, telling me there is stress in the economy. we get this fiscal stimulus that will extend the recovery further, then it turns down for real, and that is either late 2019 or early 2020, and the credit card stretch is another side that the average american household is struggling to make ends meet, partly because wages

are not keeping pace with inflation. lisa: this is a really important point, and a story just crossing 40% ofomberg terminal, u.s. consumers say they always pay their credit cards in full. i am wondering how much will the increases in fed fund rates start to affect consumers with higher rates? becauseobably not much, credit card companies did not cut our rates that much when interest rates were at 0%. they are not raising them much now. what is happening now is the accumulation of tax and that rather than interest rate. on the other hand, many mortgages tied to variable rates, that is a key index. pressure will be felt as well. tom: william gross is scheduled to be with us friday on jobs day. is the financial repression -- now that the fed funds target rate is almost back to 0%, do you assume we will fade out of our financial repression through

retirement? marc: people talk about financial repression, but i see financial institutions reporting lesser profits. tom: i get it, but come on, retirees are getting crushed. marc: that is the problem. not the financial pressure, but the low interest rates create jobs and is not helping everybody equally. lisa: what is the projection of when we will see the next recession? marc: first, i think we get a growth recession, which i mean less than 1% gdp latter part of next year. monetary tightening still fighting against the downturn ahead of the 2020 elections. tom: marc chandler with us, and he will continue with us as well. let me tell you about "bloomberg businessweek" this week. europe and does something remarkable, which is a great escape of volkswagen after an exceptionally troubled period the last 24 months.

volkswagen really getting it done as they tried to enter a new phase. this is bloomberg. ♪ . .

. . retail.

under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store

near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. surveillance." francine will come to us with important conversations from italy later in the week. right now on tesla, driving the

story forward. did you hear about the tweet from mr. musk, it's april fools all that. that surprises a lot of people. the latest in production has already been priced into the boom of stock and bond for tesla and that now the tesla of dreams looks ok. tom: is a lot of reasons to beat these guys up, but they will eventually do units. lisa: they aren't all haters. tom: there are some lovers of tesla. word briefing.st here's taylor riggs. taylor: china says previously announced tariffs on imports took place today. word briefing. here's taylor riggs. taylor:they target $3 billion of american products including pork , wine, and certain fruit. this was in response to tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.

china defines experimental space stations has fallen over the pacific ocean. china says the spacelab mostly burned up on reentry. it's kind at the remaining pieces over the southern pacific. israel is threatening to use greater force to stop violent palestinian protest on the gaza border. benjamin netanyahu's government is rejecting allegations that used excessive firepower against demonstrations that left at least 16 palestinians dead. first oftests were the six weeks of anti-israel action. the white house is hitting back at david shulkin for claiming he was fired. the administration says he left his job willingly in the middle of an ethics scandal and the rebellions of the agency. whether he quit or was fired could be relevant to president trump's ability to name and acting secretary to temporarily fill the job.

global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. sometimes, the script is ripped up for you. the president spoke on nafta, the wall, and mexico and the tumult of mexican elections. now, kim wallace of it's wonderful to have you back with us today. what would briscoe cough do? how would you handle this unique president of united states? wallace: i assume the general would attempt to convince the president and private over a long period of time in a strategy in negotiating the multiple foreign

affairs issues that are piling up on his desk. not that formula is working. we present working on television and doing tweets. president we have a working off television and doing tweets. what is the status of nafta? mr. wallace: clearly in private, the president is listening to some of his advisers. have azer and navarro zero-sum things. he's consulting with evil inside the white house and people outside of the white house. peopleand private -- inside the white house and people outside of the white house. public and private have influence. lisa: you said this is a tight timing a difficult negotiation and we are running out of time area -- running out of time. mr. wallace: there are deadlines on the nafta negotiation, particularly the mexico election on july 1 and our election

november 6. it will change the dynamics of the discussion of the tables if they aren't able to reach -- if negotiators don't reach and negotiate -- an agreement before july 1. lisa: what's more important, the nafta negotiations or the skirmish with china? mr. wallace: you have to look at both. a test of the presidents for quality for bashing people in public going into negotiation and in china, that's a long-term negotiation around which care has to be given or hoped for. you don't want mistakes in the number one and number two relationship in the economy globally. tom: if i look at the border wall and the president brought hasp on sunday, everybody been over this. it's a cable-tv favorite. the president is huge -- has a huge

constituency that believes in this wall. how does congress handle that? how does the pentagon handle that? alone, or witht the actually have support from some of these institutions? much alone on capitol hill. it's over a year that they have given him a vocal funds for this. the $1.6 billion has a lot of strings attached to it. there's very little support in washington to allocate the president is talking about for a permanent wall. tom: what is the kim wallace status on nafta for the beginning of the third quarter? mr. wallace: the next round begins in a week and my sense is that these guys are close and they want to close this out before the july 1 election in mexico. we will have something in draft form by the end of april, early may.

that will give them time to put the papers together and seal the deal. negotiation stretches into multiple rounds into the summer, we will blow through the election and possibly blow to the u.s. election as well. lisa: which u.s. and canadian industries could be most disrupted by a failure to reach a nafta agreement? mr. wallace: lumber comes to mind and certainly hypercard runs -- hydrocarbons. same, a lotmuch the around transportation, particularly having to do with rail and trucks. tom: i want to revoke the script. robert kaplan is out with a new book "the return of marco polo." it is realpolitik personified. he goes back to george schulz and jim baker and the rest of them. as the president have any realpolitik in him or is he

completely divorced from robert kaplan's world? fromallace: he is divorced robert kaplan's world by choice. his real policy -- is realpolitik is social media and reaching out to his base. he doesn't do realpolitik with heads of state. tom: i know you were going there. can secretary of state pompeo bring us over to an adult discussion of international relations? whether you agree or disagree with mr. kaplan? mr. wallace: he could, i don't think that's his motivation. i think he wants to stay very close to the president and i don't think he is going to expand the conversation. he is likely to sharpen the conversation. secretary mattis is the person to watch here. what about tom bolton? tom: john bolton. mr. wallace: ambassador bolton what about tom bolton? tom:comes to the white house wia lot of experience -- comes to

the inner circle with a lot of experience. he is a megaphone for the president, he's not going to attempt to change the president. issues hard on many relating to international affairs, if not harder, and the president himself. tom: let's go back to general mattis. he is the one to watch. what is the exhaustion level of the secretary of defense as we wander into april? mr. wallace: i do not know him, but people know him say he doesn't get tired and he is usually two or three steps ahead of everyone, including the white house in terms of his own chessboard. i don't get a sense that he is going to tire of the job. i think the job is his until something happens in the white house to set us off the rails. tom: mr. wallace, thank you. group.lace of eurasia we will wander forward on the u.s. dollar and maybe we will find a currency parallel where we can create alpha.

it's your morning briefing, bloomberg daybreak, new york, boston, the bay area, washington , and worldwide in london. this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: this is bloomberg "surveillance." i'm lisa abramowicz. please across the country have been enforcing rules to record driver hours. they prevent drivers from fudging their times on paper logs, which means drivers have an 11 hour daily limit. torwood capital has offered

buy victoria park in a $1 billion deal. we all caps off or would give the investment firm a foothold in swedish rented residential retail market. steven spielberg has given warner bros. its first number one debut of the year. " took inayer one, $41 million in u.s. and canada. warner bros. ranked fifth in u.s. ticket sales among major studios. that is your bloomberg business flash. thank you, taylor. amanda and walmart are said to be in talks about a close relationship, including -- according to a person familiar with the matter. what does this mean for the entire health care industry? us is john palmer. and marc chandler. what does this relationship would like? -- look like?

mr. ballmer: it's unlikely they by humana outright. combining together to deliver more health care in walmart stores follows both of their 218.egies to achieve -- mr. palmer: we've seen a wave of consolidation in the industry with cvs aetna, express scripts and cigna coming together. my guess is there's going to be destruction and the big winner is probably going to be united health care, who is just going to keep sticking to their knitting and deliver what they have been delivering. lisa: why does this make sense for walmart as well as -- how does it make sense? mr. palmer: we've seen all this disruption in health care and we are worried about amazon coming into health care and i think we know that a retail company is struggling -- walmart being one

of the biggest retailers in this country. they are looking to how they can diversify. walmart and humana have had a relationship for the last seven years delivering medicare part d plans. they've been except that -- extremely successful. it makes sense they can leverage that relationship to get more people into the store and to humana plans. tom: bring up the screen. this is the financial analysis of humana. it's a lot of numbers but all you need to know as double-digit revenue growth, double-digit revenue growth, then they go into the land of nowhere. there's a little bit of improvement estimated. this desperation. cap and man, -- catherine mann is really on this, we are seeing these mergers because nothing is happening. how desperate is the industry for revenue growth? it's not there, is it? mr. palmer: that's a fair point. there is definitely desperation to grow your customer rate and grow your scale.

tom: a bunch of suits and ties are worried about their bonus 90 days outcome of going into synergy. all this is a 15% synergy exercise. mr. palmer: some of these deals, you can make that argument. but with humana and walmart, there would be a lot of synergy. tom: i get the advantage for humana. what is the advantage for walmart in buying a net income business that looks like kroger? mr. palmer: i think the object is to get more people into walmart stores and the way you can do that is by delivering health care into the stores. it's an unproven model and cvs nnr trying to do it. -- cbs are trying to do it. cvs and wander into maybe you get a prescription, i get that, but walmart? lisa: walmart has space and they can provide the in-store services that i thank you man is working for. -- that humana is looking

for. i want to talk about desperation on another level. what is a deal like this mean for markets? mr. chandler: i don't know how much it means outside of the individual partners. we are in the middle of an acquisition wave which is a function of companies having too much money. first they give back money by buying back stocks and then dividends and i would say -- tom: you agree with me? that's a first. mr. chandler: lagos, several years ago they were bought and resold and bought again. tom: that was decades ago. only oneler: is the that occurs to me at six clark in the morning. -- at 6:00 in the morning. tom: and looking at a desperation of health care. the desperation of everyone becoming an oligopoly. is this becoming national healthcare? mr. palmer: we are a long ways

away from a one payer system but we are definitely moving to a model where there are only two or three choices. you know whether that's when we go for patients, but we are definitely moving in that direction. lisa: what is the perfect model? humana shares up 11% in premarket trade. the market will say this has been wildly successful in the last couple of years. cvs andbs and aetna -- aetna. they are all chasing on health care. lisa: who is next? mr. chandler: humana has been on the block and well cared who has a lot of exposure. tom: say something on the income statements of these companies. i don't see the revenue pop. jonathan palmer, brilliant as

with bloomberg intelligence. tv , here's how you use this on the first day of the second quarter of 2018. you can watch us and look at jonathan palmer. you can come over here and you can look over on the side at a given chart like this and you can go into your meeting with marc chandler and dazzle him with a chart on libor ois. you can steal that chart over to your bloomberg. stay with us. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: thank you for being with us. "bloomberg surveillance," to finish the quarter. for abramowicz is in francine lacqua. we look for later this week. jobs day as well coming up on friday. the single best chart and we are advantaged with marc chandler with us. this goes to the presidential review of mexico. i haven't shown this chart in a while, which is dollar peso. election presidential in the united states, here's all the dynamics. member the debates and all that?

peso and then we come in. can you make alpha, can you make trumpian alpha with dollar peso in the next year? mr. chandler: the market is saying trump. tom: the world is going to come to an end. mr. chandler: the mexican peso is one of the strongest currencies in the year. despite having the far left candidate running well ahead of the polls. populist in the u.s. might be causing populist on the rio grande. tom: i want to show this on the single best chart right now. this is the mexican peso strength and the rollover to new strength as they go into elections. lisa: the mexican peso gained about 8% so far this year against the dollar. how much more does it have to run? mr. chandler: i really think it's been a bit exaggerated. i think ahead of the july in these nafta

uncertainties, i'm looking for to weigh on the mexican peso. so far, is a losing battle for me. going forward, do you think that basically there is still a premium baked in there that has to do with the nafta and wall negotiation, or has that been squeezed out? mr. chandler: i think in the short run, the higher industry in mexico and the fading of the trump factor is the driver. tom: what is the distinction right now on a foreign exchange desk between boredom and being more assertive? i want to make a trade on a pair right now. what is a distinction where you can make alpha right now? visit of security and stuff, -- is it of secure em stuff? mr. chandler: are we in a range bound market, the euro has been trading at a defined range for the last couple of weeks. tom: we have buckets. chandler buckets. mr. chandler: some currencies

are trending and some currencies not. currenciess -- some look like they have been range bound may be breaking out. sign thathere any there are central banks that are moving away from the dollar as the reserve currency and going to the euro? mr. chandler: this is what people are talking about. on good friday, the imf reported its latest reserve data. even though it shows a large jump in euros, i think that largely can be accounted for by valuation. and by these shifting of reserves, china used to not report allocated reserves. it are shifting from an allocated to allocated. that accounts for totally the euro's rise in reserve status. lisa: you don't think this indicates any kind of shift away from the dollar? mr. chandler: if anything, it looks like maybe a couple .entral banks bought some yen we are about the young share of global reserves, less than 4.5% magnitude. tom: you are an optimist.

, the worldgloom crew is coming to an end and we are to lose our stock -- our sovereign status to china. how do you respond to the gloom crew, where year after year, the dollar stays dominant? almost every generation has its doom and gloom, from the very get-go of united states history. one of the things that the permanent part of the u.s. discussion, we do better when we think some is about to eat our lunch and we have countless numbers of people thinking someone's about eat our lunch. marc chandler, we continue this discussion on bloomberg radio. let me to a foreign exchange report. i do have lisa abramowicz right now. the dollar, korean won up top. there's been a weaker yen over the past few days. without to 106 point 30.

6.30 -- 106.30. we have to get more crypto. hovering at that $7,000 mark. tom: it went long. it is $17,000. -- we areling them not selling. we're mortgaging the middle child. because of bitcoin. lisa, thank you. lisa abramowicz with us today. look for her work on fixed income you worldwide, stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ retail.

under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store

near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. ♪

>> we are bankrupt. just kidding. with a little joke in the market isn't laughing. is the worst over? camtek find its footing? beijingchina standoff, slaps higher tariffs on 180 u.s. products. china still wants to talk, u.s. goes silent. david: i'm david westin. alongside with alix steel. alix: it's great to see you. david: easter monday, it is snowing outside. alix: happy april, it is snowing. there is some defense if you are an equity trader, otherwise it's a calm a market, features off about nine points after the worst loss for the s&p. euro-dollar is flat. europe is