tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg April 11, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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♪ haidi: mission accomplished. two, even survived a as critics retain doubts. betty: lawmakers say techniques more regulation and government action could be in order. , they suddenlye more hawkish term with policymakers bending towards a faster pace tightening. betty: and the sound of trade warning and that spot between
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china and the rest will hurt australia. widi: hello from sydney here we are two hours away from the open from the markets. hour wever the next will be looking at the action on wall street and how it will play in the asia-pacific trading day, it looked like mark zuckerberg unscathed.ss on the overall markets today felt that way. early on concerns about what the u.s. might do to retaliate regime butad's markets down, but recovered throughout. you mentioned the fed minutes factoring in and making some of the early big losses. the s&p ending at more than half a percent and the dow losing,
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and the nasdaq also losing ground. as you mentioned, quite not as bad as we saw earlier this morning. haidi: there is a lot to contend with for investors. record where you get this one or two day rally, and then you get a tweet or announcement from the u.s. president, and he see the selloff going into these lows again. mouth got the potential military action on syria being thrown in. we have more on that later, and an outflow of risks and uncertainties. betty: risks and uncertainties it will link a volatile right in the markets. su keenan is here with more on all the market action. the comment ofon broken records, it was shot and all from these tweets from trump that leads to dramatic headlines and selloffs. yesterday we were up, and today
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we are down, so let's go into the market snapshot. volatility risk off was the name of this session. treasuries rose with a more hawkish tone than expected on rate types, and oil at the highest since 2014 on always geopolitical concerns. gold is a safe haven play and back in vogue. we see pullbacks index than the towers but does not reflect the big moves we saw any regular session. the bloomberg because earning season is about to be the new driver with banks. but we are starting to see here is the first of the most bullish projections.h you see less optimism with the companies and the s&p. we are now -- since the beginning of 2018 -- sing a less in stocks,ntiment
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and it is much lower anticipation about what the earnings reports are going to say. that is about to hit us as well. mentioned, part of the right we had overnight, gold slightly higher -- where are we at with the saudi's wanting $80 oil? su: this is a complete change overnight in the oil picture. bets on oil, the most bullish since oil was $105. let's go into the bloomberg one more time, we secret volatility jumping to the levels -- we see crude levels jumping. you see we are not only at the high, world is about 67. you have to go back to 2014 to see prices this high. geopolitics is a concern. not only do you have a missile
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interception according to saudi arabia in the biggest oil producer in the world, but you have president trump threatening missile action in syria and middle eastern tensions with oil like nothing else. let's go to energy stocks. we can see gains in the underlying commodities -- transocean and diamond offshore, that is a 7% gain in one session. many analysts say this is just the beginning. crude oil in the u.s. getting big jumps. and also in london having big jumps on the latest geopolitical development. haidi: you can well imagine u.s. shale producers very keenly. sue, thank you for that. that will inform the mixed picture we see in the asia trading session. going into new zealand and getting underway, yet kiwi stocks sink the downside of a quarter of 1%.
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the kiwi dollar a little bit lower after we had a couple days of outperformance in the g10 space. the bloomberg dollar index falling to the lowest and it will create a little bit of sentiment going into the tokyo open. --hsias in australia features in australia, and despite the start of the aussie weakness we had, the cba saying they see the dollar ending around $.83. a gradual path given in does appear to be hiking rates anytime soon. gold is starting to come down a bit and new york crude almost at $67 a barrel, highest levels since 2014. yet a little weakness in iron and coal looking flat there. with go to the top story
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mark zuckerberg finishing up two days of testimony, we are showing investors with his composure. facebook's stocks jumping, however many lawmakers remain skeptical of the ceos apologies and pledges. joining us is emily chang. through, he was prepared, who was your biggest take away from these hearings? moore pointed -- questions,e pointed and a center asked and made it clear, they don't know how facebook works. that said, mark zuckerberg i would say doesn't get as good of a great today as he did yesterday, sibley because the questions were so penetrating. he didn't seem to say yes or no to several yes or no questions. he is probably also tired. it was 10 hours of testimony in
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a row. generally he was unruffled throughout these two days. he was very patient, and we got new information, specifically about how facebook tracks users when they are not on facebook, including when they don't have a facebook account. there was a phenomenal exchange with a center who articulate at the point that several did not mail. take a listen. you are collecting personal information on people who do not even have facebook accounts, isn't that right? yes or no? >> i don't think that is what we are tracking. >> you acknowledged you are doing that for security purposes and commercial purposes. you are collecting data outside of facebook. when someone goes to a website that has a facebook like or
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share, that data is collected by facebook, correct? yes or no? >> that is right. in order to show. >> for people who do not have facebook, i don't think the average american understands that. emily: how can you opt out when you are not a facebook user? you can't. point and a fresh concern today, and the issue of content and how responsible is for the content on its platform. we talked about it yesterday, but lawmakers asked several times today. mark zuckerberg taking the position that facebook is responsible for not only the content that facebook rates but the content users create on its platform. does he think facebook should be legally responsible for the content? that is unclear, but there is a sense that facebook has a moral obligation to make sure that content is ok. betty: that is remarkable, that
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you don't have to have an account and your data is still scraped. emily: users don't understand how their data is tracked. i had to look up and see what program is this. i am the anchor of the technology show. do you think will come out of this with regulation? emily: already some new laws are being proposed. certainly he has said he supports regulation and he said in principle, what general principles he supports. but, yes, but the question is what kind and how long. take a listen to what he had to say. >> i think it is inevitable that will need to be some regulation. my position is that there shouldn't been a regulation, but what relationship be put in place. emily: he is supportive of it
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and it is a matter if congress can get there. betty: this is not the end of it at all. emily chang on the coverage on the facebook hearing. let's get to first world news with courtney collins. courtney: first the latest fed fomc,s show a hawkish leaning towards a faster pace of tightening. several members noted a struggle outlook for the economy and for inflation, saying the appropriate path over the next two years will likely be slightly steeper than is the expected. however, officials were concerned about financial imbalances and the possibility of the economy overheating. discussedtrump has syria with his top defense team and is warning russia with a barrage of missiles. sources say the president hasn't decided how to respond to the suspected chemical weapons andck outside of damascus,
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no action is anticipated in the coming hours. however he tweeted relations with russia have never been worse and wants moscow to be ready for a missile strike on syria. paul ryan says he has no regrets of retiring, saying the republican party achieved a great deal of success during his time as speaker. his future was the subject of rumors for months and he had only given they answers asked about his plans. he joins the queue of republicans heading for the exits, more than 40 gop lawmakers have resigned this year or are not seeking we election. foreignarch shows investment between u.s. and china fell 28% last year, from 12 months earlier. drop in driven by a chinese investment in america from $46 billion to $29 billion. while u.s. national security officials cut down on chinese
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acquisitions of american companies. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. collins.tney this is bloomberg. just ahead on "daybreak australia", inside into the fomc minutes, study more hawkish than expected. just ahead on "daybreak talking about the outlook for rate hikes. betty: and the company launched a new cryptocurrency font and how they deal with the percent plunge in share prices this year. this is bloomberg. ♪
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looking slightly negative and crude jumping in the highest since 2014. also aluminum sink the biggest winning streak since 1988. on the agenda, we have the back of korea decision out this morning and expected to stay on hold. looking at the reaction from governor lee on the potential impasse on growth from ratcheting up trade tensions. you are watching "daybreak australia". betty: as you mentioned, some pretty big volatile jumps in oil, gold, and volatility in the markets. if faster path of rate hikes may be in store after the minutes of the fed meeting -- and exhibition of inflation may increase momentum towards aggressive tightening. kathleen hays is here to explain this more hawkish tilt. kathleen: let's take a look at
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that. it seems to be the initial reaction and how the stories are written. let's look at the key sentence from the fomc minutes from the march 20 meeting. amonger of participants the fomc indicated a stronger outlook of economic activity. inflation will return to 2% in the median turn over the next two years, but slightly steeper than they produce the expected. wait a minute, or the dot shifted in the march meeting and the consensus was firmly around three hikes and almost as many people were looking for four rate hikes. another think in these minutes -- the majority fed officials said terror's have no big impact, but the prospects for a trade war or retaliation on tariffs has a downside risk to the economy. they are technology what almost
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a month ago that this is something that could have a difference on the path of rate hikes. one more thing, let's look at the march consumer price index. it did accelerate as expected. we are going to show you a gtv chart, the cap corp. versus headline. what happened here is 2%, you can see the blue line is the headline of 2.4%, and the core to 2.1. from 1.8 thatt to remind everybody what the fed watches is the lower line. headline, far pce below 2%. the idea is that if pci is ing, they will to.
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they have given us clues in the direction they are leaning. betty: and we heard that from jay powell in the first fed meeting. i want to bring in john writing, what do you say about this, john? >> i think kathleen had that right. betty: kathleen is going to comment yes! >> i think too much is made of the narrative behind the cpi prices are dropping out, and is also the momentum in the numbers. over the last six months come at the core inflation rate averaged 2.6% and over the last two months it averaged 2.1%. 2.6 overer year and six months, and 2.9 over three months, that is accelerating. if we look forward over the next
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months in terms of headline numbers, as higher oil prices that we talked about a couple of minutes ago haven't fit into the inflation reports. what i would disagree with is that it is a long way away from 2%, we're going to be 2% on this pce inflation numbers in the june report. possibly even in may. that 2%is going to see inflation number, and that is going to be the factor that matters at the june meeting. remember, chairman powell said repeatedly, he said we only need one decision at the march meeting. that decision was to raise interest rates in march. in june it is clear that will raise rates in june given these numbers. now what they signaled for the forecast them at that point i think that is when they have to signal to more hikes given where
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the inflation rate is going to be. you ought to be academic when unemployment rate is at 4% inflation is at 2%. haidi: as kathleen mentioned, the impact on tariffs. but you think if they are rolled out in any such way that they are going to be inflationary as well? a great point, because we talk a minute ago about the growth of facts, but we didn't talk about the inflation affects. if you are in an environment where you see better pricing power -- by the way, is great to see australia using the british term of aluminum. [laughter] john: yep a russian company that has 6% of global aluminum supply. and we see prices spiked massively. with the tariffs on top, that does have inflation. if we get tariffs over a broader
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aree of guts, no tariffs imposed yet, they are suggested. but if we get them over a broader range of goods, he will be inflationary. it is not clear to me what the fed response will be on tariffs. i had four interviews with fed officials in the last two months, and what i want to get to is a interview we did a couple of back to go. he said the baseline is still three and he is concerned over the next two years. he thinks underlying fundamentals are problematic. you still have technological disruption and lack of productivity. he also said it is too early to talk about trade tensions becoming a more. but it seems to me he is much more cautious than the way the fomc minutes were read today. so hidden int those minutes was a discussion of a number of fomc officials
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with think they will raise rates above the level of rate because of rising inflation pressures market.tening labor i hear what you are saying about one member of the fomc meeting, but it seems to market. me -- and you can see it in the consensus numbers. you look at the median path, the fed has interest rates above the long run rates before they come back down to the long run rate, which is close to 3% at 2.9%. the majority of the fed view that we have got sufficiently far and will have to have a period of restraint. you talk about the land which of the minutes and the line which being changed from accommodation to restraint on policy. i think they are signaling that in their outlook forecast. this inflation story -- and how tariffs fit into the story -- is going to be the dominant driver of said policy. betty: quickly on the yield
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curve. i have a gtv chart that shows how much the yield curve has flattened. it is the lowest since before the recession began. officials and watchers are watching this closely. how much will that factor into whether we get two or three rate hikes? john: i don't think it will for a couple of reasons. firstly, the preferred yield curve measure of 10 year to three-month bills, i used to work with a chap who was the fed go-to guy on the yield curve. that spread right now, if you run his model, which i did earlier today -- we're talking about 11% probability recession over the next years. secondly, the fed is taking action on the long end of the curve. qe3 was toose of
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lower interest rates, and now we are unwinding balance sheets and that -- chairman powell is clear. we are going to see an instrument pushing long term interference hike. and that throwing the fiscal deficit numbers we got from the treasury and the cbo earlier this week. that is going to need more supply. we are not matching the supply because they issued a lot of bills and it will have to start churning that out. thank you soyding, much for joining us. and kathleen hays. a lot to discuss. remember bloomberg users can interact with the charts we just showed right here, using gtv . browse recent charts featured on bloomberg and also save the charts for future reference. check it out at gtv .
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haidi: it is 8:30 a.m. in sydney. are seeing witness going into the sydney open, tracking losses with lots of geopolitical tensions in the middle east pouring and oil prices come into play and they session. betty: and a lot on tap for investors and why we saw so much volatility. 6:30 p.m. in new york and let's get the first world news with courtney collins. courtney: first up, mark zuckerberg emerged on ruffled a second day of testimony on capitol hill. addressing the house, he stuck
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close to his fame that facebook hasn't done enough to ensure user data was not misused. also repeated that it was my mistake and i am sorry. democrats and some republicans said there should be more federal regulation and zuckerberg agreed that some government action may be in order. ahead with push overhauling its bloated state enterprises and we'll push for mergers in sectors that are pl y gued by defaults. it is said that some are fragmented and efficient and said that the government wants to support companies that are forward-looking. >> some of the central state owned enterprises in certain industries are too fragmented and have low efficiency. will further push for mergers and sectors that include power, coal, and machinery.
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there's too much to application at the moment and some companies only have a small market share. all mergers should take place in a voluntary basis. companies coming together by their own free will guided by the market. the congressional budget office is warning that the u.s. government is on track to pay more on interest spending that on military. the cbo put the senate budget committee that payments to creditors will triple over the coming decades, far outpacing expenditure on the fence. interestast shows topping military spending by 2023 and reaching $950 million five years later. tesla has again length the driver for last months that the model x. -- in california the company says the accident happened on a clear day with several hundred feet of visibility ahead of the car. the driver was not paying attention to the road
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despite the car providing multiple warnings and sisters are reminded that autopilot requires them to keep their hands on the wheel. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney collins. this is bloomberg. more on whatget you should be watching as australia gets underway. adam haigh is with us. googling at the moment of trade and uncertainties and politics, you also see a spike in libel, why are we seeing short-term aren't costs go up? adam: it is a story bubbling away for a few weeks. a lot of people were saying at the end of march that you might see libor come back again. that hasn't happened, and it kept thinking up in april. people aren't worried about this. one interesting observation made
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-- they over at tenneco are talking about this change in costs we have with companies over the years since the financial crisis makes the implications and significance of libor is less today than it was back then. this chart shows, as libor and have checkedtes up, yet relative outperformance of small-cap equities relative to large-cap, which gives credence to his argument that these companies can still have plenty of normality in the way they fund business without having any hiccups if rates go up in the short end of the curve. the less reliant on this short-term measure,. there is less of an impact on short-end companies he is arguing it is a good thing in the long run for equities, especially for small caps. betty: one group of people who maintain the resilience story of
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market turmoil are wall street equity strategists. rbc is among the first dialing back to forecast. what are the concerns the outline here? adam: that was what was so remarkable about the volatility that characterized the first four months of the year, especially in equities. posted started just didn't bow back any forecasts for 2018 or 2019 in terms of s&p 500 projections. we are seeing the first signs of that starting to change. tose guys lowering back down 2890 from 2000. not a huge slashing of the number, but a marginal decrease. they did a big downgrade in tech to underweight, which in a larger extent is a reactive to move to price than a proactive
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move. be not too much of a surprise people havehe brought down tech exposures the last few months. but perhaps if more of wall street followed this move, would have a lower average production towards the end of the year. no shortage of reasons to worry. yesterday we saw morgan stanley, more than asia focused, but sank across the board that they are struggling to see how equity markets can get back to those january peaks throughout the remainder of the year. so certainly caution is the word of the day. haidi: adam haigh with us. and the aussie dollar is lower, warning of the dangers of a trade war between the u.s. and china and affect on australia. what is he saying? >> this is a speech he gave in
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the help of the global economy at risk and damaged the australian economy as well. that she was talking about agitation on trade. he said this is a bad policy and unsustainable. but the message is the same, china buys more than a third of australia's exports. that is a percent of the country's gdp. against that is the balancing of long-term security alliance with the united states. he identified other instances as well, with concern about chinese authorities managing risk in the financial system. the bulk of the speech was focused on regional variations in australia. betty: the rba is not to be of tightening anytime soon, right? paul: in a word, no.
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he reiterated the policy is on track and the goal is to get inflation at 2.5% midpoint of the target range. he reiterated that they will get there eventually. the initial wage growth is going to be addressed by lowering unemployment. but he did say the next move is likely to be up rather than down. shockht come as a nasty because you might everybody got the cash rate has moved up in australia for seven years now. we should all consider ourselves warned. betty: paul, thank you so much. and a chairman says no one is going to win if there is a trade war between the china and the u.s.. to andrew forrest and asked him about the ramifications of rising trade tensions and she should thinks response to donald trump's threats. said that hexi has
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will not go through with from flesh cut out a piece of or an arm, the credibility is everything. as he said this morning, harmony goes wealth, and cannot be harmonious with someone who says they are not going to do what they see the are going to do. into ninehas run non-f trade barriers -- tariff trade barriers. be happening, but it is the mighty ship in the big picture. ideas are getting carried through, and that we're about tot start a trade war, and president xi responded, not yourself out, we're going to open up our economy even more. that is kind of really -- a
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clever response. decades.e for many make the words trade war you shudder and how will you be impacted? >> trade war is an ill wind that will do nobody good. we shouldn't have a trade war. -- the united states will suffer with agriculture and engineering and manufacturing goods because china will be forced to procure from other countries. that might be good for us dollar, i don't want australia to win on someone else's loss. i have been approached to say, could we convert australia to a very large sunday manufacturer? i said yes. we might want to get our
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soybeans for you guys because we want to north america. that will put soybean farmers who rely on the china trade in north america out on the streets. i don't want to see that happen. that is the repercussions of a trade war. >> how have the dynamics in your primary industry changing? is this as good as it is going to get? chinese mills, they are doing well, but the demand seems to be at least flattening or plateauing, even your own government mentioned the demand from china for iron is what the level out over the coming years. prices might go up in the short-term, but the man has pete. aked. are the best days over for you? >> i'm not going to forecast commodity. but still intensity has to increase for the quality of
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growth. we have the quantity of growth, but the quality of growth in china rapidly increase -- that intensity has to increase. >> you never comment on prices, but are you concerned with oversupply at the chinese ports? supply, butot of demand is plateauing. off -- theas come -- but through all that, you have actually grown .emand for australian oars what that tells you is the market in china is becoming more and more trusting of oversee supply. particularly with australian supply. haidi: that was andrew forrest speaking at the form in thailand.
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betty: good morning, i am betty lou in new york. haidi: you are watching "daybreak australia". believers and skeptics changing sides, back in january george soros conquered those -- and his family offers and plans to take digital assets. joining us is the ceo of a blockchain company active new york and recently launched a crypto and joins us now. great to have you. example,eorge soros that create a sense that this space is being institutionalized? >> definitely.
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we have not there is a wall of institutional money waiting on the sidelines and this is an example of that. they arey have said interested in the space, and this market has been dominated by we tell players. it is exciting to see this the moment, as well as opening up our own fund. haidi: we had a still that come out with regular and's of operators and crypto spaces -- a sense that regulations and policies are struggling to catch up with technology. you think more regulation is needed to legitimize this area? more relation needs to be placed in initial coin offerings. inposition as vice-chairman australia's industry body, we establish that code of conduct of currency exchanges. individuals and companies that want to purchase digital assets in australia, they can go there
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safely and establish a stable commission and partnership with banks. and as some we have been able to establish a framework from a taxation perspective. the third leg is establishing initial point offerings to regulations around that. phenomenon ofs a revelatory with crypto companies and south korea and japan and china as the rules and laws change quickly. you think australia has a positive environment for innovation? australia hasely, a fantastic framework for blockchain businesses. it is helping to support that over here, and the only negative is the higher taxation. however, i think the open environment as well as a lot of supportive individuals and businesses -- that makes australia leading the way.
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we see japan come on strongly. a lot of people have exited china and japan, and popping up on the back of that. betty: chris about that use of --rge soros who claimed curious about george soros's comments about bitcoin being in a bubble. what do you make of billionaire george soros getting into this market? fantastic a a positive sign for the industry that crypto assets aren asset classes and here to stay. he turned the market well by not participating in that december and january bull run. the marketplace was valued at 850 billion. and now we are looking at toward a 50 to 300 right now. to establish the fund that these levels makes a lot of sense, with ourselves providing advisory services to businesses to launch their own crypto assets.
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we can identify that as an exciting time to enter the market. betty: does it tell you there might be a bottom here from the bitcoin?rom leigh: it is driven by a fall in the valuations and cascaded. new entrants have been come in and they may have stepped out. however, you see regulations turn miley positive. -- turn mildly positive. regulatelooking to initial coin offerings in a favorable way. that is a positive bit of news. and yet the two major crypto hedge funds from some of the wealthiest offices in the world getting involved. this could be the time to market is turning. betty: it could become and perhaps it needs to be for your company as well. it seems like digital ex tracks in the way whether you like it or not where the liquid market
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goes. your shares have fallen as popped.s bubble has haidi separate yourself from the correlation from investors minds? correlation,is the which we haven't been able to break out of yet. we announced the final component to the strategy of providing watching education and crypto news to the marketplace. it is really about educating, not only investors but the marketplace. ist is something that subject to the rise and fall's of elite cripple prices. betty: what are you educating them about? leigh: what the technology can do, and how it is the safest and most efficient way to transfer assets, particularly high-value assets. how projects using this technology can completely become at aext uber or airbnb, much lower cost base.
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certainly there is a bright future for this industry. haidi: the fact that the latest innd regulatory changes australian registration for service providers that looks at counterterrorism financing and anti-money-laundering rules test is this suggest there's some way to go before you can call them bad actors use crypto and the coin for nefarious means? leigh: i think with those regulations, any customers coming to australia want to go on the on ramps, went to invest cash into crypto assets will have to go through a procedure. it will have to go through all of those records come and it will go through the on track system. it is not a good market for those that practice to get involved in, particularly in
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australia. question existential about the coin, was it was a safe haven and they can the gold -- akin to gold. thewould you characterize role of bitcoin in the broader asset class universe? interesting really -- i have been want to say that the coin is uncorrelated with other asset classes. arehose asset classes falling, you have diversity in a portfolio. by having exposure to the coin. however, we have seen the strongest relation between the coin and the s&p 500 over the last quarter. i think that is because the market is seeing the going is new technology, and what we see out of the u.s. with the technology giants fall back pretty hard. i think the coin is caught up in that. but over time it will have uncorrelated structure in terms
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of how it performs against other assets. haidi: thank you so much for that. ceo of digitalx joining us there. on the function tv and dive into any securities and bloomberg functions we talk about. and join in the conversation and send this is the messages on the show. check it out at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
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reserve chair, and she is a serious warrior when it comes to trade wars, but inflation skeptic. it will be interesting to see what she thinks of these the escalating tensions between the u.s. and china, and a jump in inflation we saw in march. betty: it seems that way, and what about the momentum behind regulating facebook? we'll talk about the outcome of these two days of testimonies from mark zuckerberg. university of north carolina associate professor joining us, and author of the book, " printer and teargas." and also, cornell university senior professor joining us at 7:40 a.m. hong kong time. he is a great thinker and has written a lot about china and u.s. relations.
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the dollar about trap, and he says use being clever and plaintiff to trump's ego in terms of extending that olive branch and allowing him to potentially be able to play in a domestic way. he is saying the trump administration is keen to find a common ground to get through this, and what beijing what call a win-win. yvonne: and they have some time and a few months before punitive enacted or put in place. let's get a quick check of markets because trade is on the mind of investors right now. ndx is down, and the kiwi trading steady. and futures in australia are about to open. down afterittle bit
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♪ 7:00 a.m. here in hong kong, i am yvonne man. welcome to "daybreak asia." pointingific futures to a lower opening after equities slipped in new york to read oil and gold jumped on escalating mideast tensions. also digesting a more hawkish tone in the fed minutes. policymakers edged toward faster tightening. betty: i am betty liu in new york, where it is just after 7:00 p.m. wednesday evening. mission accomplished, mark zuckerberg survived a two on capitol hill. even critics retain their doubts on the company.
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