♪ anna: good morning. i'm anna edwards. and i'm manus cranny live in dubai. these are today's top stories. the trump ministry can push the u.s. china trade were on hold. victorious -- venezuela's president victorious. and the populist prime minister. it's really the five-star party have agreed a leader for their coalition government. ♪

anna: good morning, everybody. it's 6:00 here in london. we are going to talk about the aviation sector and have breaking news from ryanair. they see their full year 2019 .rofits to fall a little weaker in terms of the guidance for 2019. they had talked about net income being -- anyway, that's the number we have now. 1.2521.35. this is interesting. this is around if we do get a half brexit. what happens to those shareholders that have a holding and ryanair but are not in the eu. that includes eu shareholders of which there are many. that will be interesting to discuss a little bit further.

that estimate was for 1.44. the numbers don't look too bad first is the estimate. versus the estimate. there weren't some little gloomy. we will talk about that story through the program. this is where the asian markets have left us. we are up by around .1%. not going quite so strong in the asian sector that you might suspect. the trade war is on hold. it's not difficult to find holes in the argument. bloomberg dollar index is up by .8%. see the bloomberg dollar strength coming through. were also looking at the euro a little bit weaker.

you have been focused on that story around the bond market. as you were reading out those ryanair headlines, i quickly looked up who owns the most of ryanair. affects voting rights, a whole host of governance rights. juniper investment manager and growth fund, allianz, and michael o'leary himself. a swath of institutions that all may come under this of thinking. we can talk to michael himself a little bit later on. the death of the bond market. it's been herod built -- it's been heralded for a while.

five-year paper and seven-year paper for -- since 2010. we are going to get another dump onto the market. who is going to win? the asset managers versus the had funds. who is brave and who is naive. the hedge fund community has been short and sharp in regards to their position. they are shorting the heck out of these markets. you've got eight fed speakers come into the market, giving various views on where they see the bond market. you going to see this heavy issuance on the markets and we have come back from some of those heavy levels we saw. coming back from the 3.1% yield on the 10 year government on to shoot. death of a bond bull market is ahead of us and maybe that has been called a little bit too

often and a little bit too early. anna: it is familiar. tragic literature. no concerns about the death of the equity market in the united states. the u.s. and china, it seems, and these putting on hold, little truce in that trade war. atare expecting to go higher the start of the american trading day. and alludeduggested to gently throughout our commentary, we are going to speaking to the ceo of ryanair. us at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. you will get more detail from him. rights of u.k. shareholders could be interesting. his juliette saly. u.s. stock index futures have risen after the trump administration and china: economic truce as both arteries agree to put tariffs on hold.

the world's two biggest economies released a joint statement on saturday following two days of meetings in washington between city officials that's senior officials. u.s. president donald trump has ordered the justice department to probe possible infiltration of his campaign after suggesting that special counsel's investigation is attempting to hurt republicans in this year's election. he tweeted that he demands the department of justice looks into whether or not the fbi doj infiltrated or surveilled the trump campaign for political purposes and if any such demands our requests were made by people within the obama administration. italy's populist parties have agreed on a prime minister, bringing a government closer. knee andeo sell the

luigi demaioaio -- entered a statement. president nicolas maduro one .nother term the victory handsome sole ownership of the nations crashing economic crisis. ignoring calls from the u.s. and regional leaders to suspend the election, they proceeded with the presidential contest despite on theeat of sanctions nation's oil industry. hasraq, a shiite cleric reassured about the country's next government saying it will be inclusive and mindful of people's needs. that comes after his coalition won the largest number of seats and locks -- in iraq's parliamentary election.

includes other paramilitary forces backed by both the government and neighboring iran. in the u.k., brexit supporters fearing the trail over a new customs plan. britain prepares to leave the european union. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . pretty positive session here in asia. fears that the u.s. china trade war has started to dissipate. it's given a lot of boost to investor sentiment. the nikkei is supported by a big rise in machinery. we saw exports rebound in april after a week march reading. a lot of focus on the hong kong and china markets. let's look at some of the stocks

that have benefited. these apple suppliers rallying because there was a concern that apple would be one country -- company that would be hit hard in retaliation. tech in hong kong up by almost 7%. a lot of focus on gas producers as well. present she is planning to ramp up that green energy campaign in china. and to the downside, borrow. boral. reducing it down to an underperform saying its earnings continue to disappoint. manus: thank you very much. we have stock markets on the rise.

a trade war with china is on hold for now. that's the top line but deeper reforms might be needed to reduce the imbalance. joining us now is our chief asia economics correspondent. this morning. is the traits that over or is it a temporary reprieve? -- is the trade spat over or is it a temporary reprieve. >> temporary reprieve is likely. both sides are talking to each other and a month ago that wasn't happening. both sides indicate they are making progress. were not getting much in terms of details or long-lasting deal. big concern remains of a structural side of things which china 2025 plan for state-sponsored high-tech economy of the u.s. has said repeatedly they have objection

to. feeling among economists and investors this morning that sure, the big movement,nd positive but it's hard to feel too assured that the broader trade tensions between the u.s. and china are over and are unlikely to go away in a hurry. i fear i know the answer this question. do you have any details on offer about what the chinese have committed to? there was so much confusion last week. we had a $200 billion floated -- figure floated. china had come to the table with this huge shopping list. now we are waiting to see just exactly where this progress will be made. once his vision will be that china will promise to buy more goods, perhaps in the agricultural sector. perhaps opening up part of its

services economy. a critical detail will be how much of this is new. we've had many promises of and then,the past what with the execution be on these promises. those of the kind of details that economists are looking for. until those details are on the there's a degree of caution in terms of where these talks are headed. anna: thank you very much. joining us from hong kong. now joining us, john roe. john, good to have you with us. your initial thoughts there and as we saw on friday the headlines around. promise to reduce the deficit by $200 billion but that number walked back a little.

we understand the trade war is on hold. your expectation would the trade story goes next. -- where the trade story goes next. john: you can't just close the trade deficit. the u.s. produces what it produces and can only sell it wants. the one area that would really make a difference would be buying more high-end tax is that is a low production price in a high sale price but that's the one thing that the u.s. is particular keen not to sell to china. from that perspective, it's hard to reconcile how you close a gap without actually producing more and changing savings behavior. people are right to be skeptical. and by some time, keeps them talking but it's very noticeable that the u.s. has an ultimately caved on zte. china be up to

buy from united states? trade is a zero-sum game. if you're going to buy more from america, you have to buy less from somebody else. that is a fact. on year, exports come out of south korea. it has done something very strange. but she is correct that. total trade. if you go to the import side of andbusiness, south korea china have this huge link. the risk is, a zero-sum game. everybody else loses except for the u.s.. john: i'm not sure they do, this is the point. south korea is predominantly selling them electric goods.

manus: if you decide to buy more airplanes from boeing, you lose. if you buy more soybeans from the u.s. than brazil, you lose. if you buy more semiconductors as opposed to japan, you lose. but unless this actually enables them to increase their production of soybeans, the soybean the now says the chinese , whoever they were selling to previously buy it from the other source. it's only in high-end tech in service you can create gdp that has a low production cost but a high-value. her are right, absolutely, of course, it's a zero-sum game for china. is, it doesn't actually produce any extra soybeans for the u.s.. it's not like the crops have become more productive.

it's a bit of a merry-go-round with the chinese buy more from the u.s. and in others by from the displaced producers. you invest around this? for details, how do you invest around the trade story? for so much ofd what going on globally. john: on the china side, what has been proposed is in material. even that 50 billion that may be impacted in the first round, maybe .1 of chinese gdp. from that perspective, china, it's more of a sideshow that would clear the concern being escalation. in mexico it's more that it's a well-known story. the combination of the nafta trade talks in the election in early july.

but we tended to do with the more localized political issues, in the local ones, we buy them as negative mood music because if no one is prepared to write anything positive, a lot of it is already in the price. it in catalonia and qatar and the u.k.. exactly the same idea. anna: they give a much. john roe. he stays with us on the program. coming up, it's a treasury market at an inflection point? we discuss that. manus: death of a bear market. coming up on the show, ryanair ceo michael o'leary joins us at 7:00 a.m. his guidance for the year ahead. we break it down.

anna: good morning, everybody. over in singapore, 1:21 in the afternoon. some gains we're seeing here. despite the no trade war headlines. let's get a bloomberg/with juliette saly. -- bloomberg/with juliette saly. a bid for santos. u.s. based company improved its bid by 4.6% and says it could be expanded further. the equivalent of 695 -- 6.95 australian dollars and is an 11% premium to friday's close.

chelsea super best chelsea football club owner roman of from of each is facing delays renewing his u.k. visa. he did not attend the fa cup final where his team beat manchester united. he is in the process of renewing his visa which is taking longer than usual. this has fueled speculation that british authorities may be pulling the welcome mat for oligarchs like abramovitz. that's your bloomberg business flash. is the treasury market at an inflection point? possibly so. 10 year yields have reached over the 3% level in on a closing basis, that has been a barrier. it's popped above their five days in iraq. the yields are the highest in years, adding to a slew of fed plans to reiterate gradual rate

hikes. is this a recipe for even broader selloff? our guest can help us answer the question. market, death of a bond bull market, death of a salesman. there's an absolute slew of paper to come to the market. how heavy is this offering? it's been well flagged. it'll musk a miss a surprise to people earlier in the year with the hedging -- heavy issuance. it's the most liquid market in the world, which helps. it's a market where it is easy to leverage. if things get dislocated, it's easy to use treasury futures to ring back down at this location.

probably less of a concern to us in the short-term. coupled with a risk of recession, from that perspective, we are quite comfortable with where yields are. anna: what does attract your attention? the spread between tens and 30's. the flattening of the curve. the issuance story that manus was talking about, one of the reasons why we are seeing rates higher, what is the future for this curve? this is getting a lot of attention within our discussions . it's how good the 10 30's have been as indicator of slowdowns in the past. also again around the financial crisis. we dropped around a percent and the concern is, why is in the

curve steepening? people think it's not sustainable. generally darling short and lending long and it's less and less sensitive as a gets flattened. manus: john, thank you. my apologies. the terror of time. we will pick a conversation up shortly. emerging markets also under a little bit of pressure as well. the dollar is bid. the markets are taking a pause for breath. the headline is about a trade truce. re: brewing up to a bigger cauldron of fear? of twoy, the leaders populist parties seal impacted or menu government.

it's a professor that might be a new prime minister. what is the fiscal warning from france? is the future of europe at risk? we are waking up in london post-wedding. beautiful day. ♪

manus: bloomberg takes you beyond the emperor's palace. this is a live shot. 2:30 in the afternoon. a banner headline. that helps the yen drop. --t's against all this is what your trading week should get you informed four. it's going to be a pretty big week. kicking off brexit negotiations again. one of those tortured souls this

morning. there really is this concern about issues around these negotiations and the hard border and the brexiteers within cabinet. was going to happen. down another quarter of 1% on the pound. the dollar stronger in the pound is one of those victims. day, and we see those conversations now, the south korean president is due to meet with donald trump. the conversation around trade, this is not the first meeting between south korean leadership and the trump administration. we have seen these meetings taking place. very much to the fore. manus: we are going to get the minutes on wednesday. the word gradual, we're also going to have a real nitpicking

over these fed minutes in terms of fed voices. we have a fed voices coming to the market this week. the fed minutes are also going to be critically important in terms of understanding the check to refer the fed. anna: sure they set policy for the united states enough for emerging markets, but we will be looking for any details there. russia's energy ministers set to discuss the u.s. is exit from the iran nuclear deal. that will be a fascinating conversation to track. i know one lady that will be across that oil story. she joins us now. >> this morning, i'm here in london. let's kick it off with asian markets. this is treasury secretary steve mnuchin putting a hold on trade wars with china. beijing has promised to increase their purchase of u.s. goods but

no dollar amount. trade tensions are buried for now which means good news for all. as we head into the european session, germany, austria, and switzerland as well as a few others are closed for holiday. the dollar is really in focus today. it's set to put further pressure on emerging-market currencies. the correlation is deepening. currencies had their biggest post for weekly false since donald trump won the u.s. presidency back in 2016. when it comes to em, nothing worries them. everything else is noise. the strength of the dollar is where you need to look at. we are prices climbed but money managers are feeling less and less bullish. you can see the price of brent.

the hedge funds come out of these long depositions. they cut for a fifth consecutive week. meeting have that opec where ministers start to change language. we also have driving season upon us. train, a lotsonal of hedge fund managers say they need to start to unwind that right now. thank you very much. a cracking chart there. the charts to watch. they may finally discover identity of its next prime minister today. they have both said they have understood to agree a conduit. a law professor from florence university is being considered. this triggered a week of turmoil in the italian bond markets.

did friday.n widest since october. -- spread in did friday the widest since october. as far as the potential for the new prime minister, they could be a professor from florence university. is he the lead name? yes, he appears to be the lead name according to all the italian news media. he is a law professor both in florence and in rome. i have to emphasize that in fact no name has been made public so the suspense is building here in rome. the president: will meet with the two leaders today. he will want to know about the prime minister but also their broader agenda.

what will the conversation be like? >> he will look at the plan and various proposals in it. he's going to be asking very basic questions. who will pay for all of this? that is perhaps the most contentious issue. they have stepped back from talking about this minimum wage for the poor. this is a concern from the markets point of view which is about the fiscal lack of discipline. the new government takes risks in regards to debt. the very stability of the entire eurozone is being threatened. of course, the italians are falling back. being very aggressive. they are saying this is

unacceptable. i wonder they are channeling. the whole point with brutal america is very important. maire is veryle important. that pointing out things are probably felt throughout the eu and could cause difficulties later on. thank you. he's had a busy weekend. at --f multi-asset funds john roe is still with us. we heard what is going on in italy. one of my colleagues writes this that this is the dominant theme for markets. this is overstated? john: i think that is where we

are. it's completely incompatible with any type of physical discipline or the european project and its particular difficult as you see macron pushing for this close to european integration. trying to redirect some of the european funds towards the south of europe in the next european budget. they do a lot of good work. there's all kinds of measures that can come out of that. you can have a market reaction. you will probably see a ratings reaction. issues set behind about 2 trillion of debt. it's not going to go down well with the creditor nation. they haveperspective, for now but they need to get over the line. manus: have a look at this.

it's slightly tongue-in-cheek. puts the near-term chart and there's a bit going on. can't do anything written on a chart. five weeks in a row. this is the loosest bash longest losing streak since the end of november. i know the dollar stronger this morning. if we are on the verge of new issues, and i'm not using the word crisis, but if we are on the verge of new issues, how much more pressure on the euro? john: it depends whether or not they continue to get the base case. there's a complicated italian political system in a narrow majority and you kind of get to a political paralysis which is what we have had on and off for 65 years. from that perspective, is what markets are betting on.

you have and have the kind of reaction like what we saw with the brexit vote. it's a lovely chart the part of that is also because of a anddown in european growth, that in turn is star to weigh on the euro. you said some scary sounding things there. i thought the reaction we saw in over bund yields. we'll put that off and digest with that tells us. you were saying if we see these policies come into force, they risk rating downgrades which means the bonds are unviable by the ecb. a lot of people have said we don't have to worry too much. this sounds like summing to be nervous about. -- something to be nervous about. john: the ecb will stop buying

bonds in september. the northern states have allowed that. germany and france will be ready. stop buying these btp's. even up cause might remind markets right now how expose they can be in italy. they could take a number of years and that's why markets are struggling to digest. manus: would you buy italian btp's at the moment? them as part of a value but not as a positive position. you would need to see the move substantially further because the fact this be highly correlated to a broader risk event. would be seen as a renewal of the eurozone crisis.

it means there's a more limited appetite until we get a lot wider. just we thought we are going to get away from the eurozone crisis. they stay with anna and myself. a reminder for you. you can find all the charts that we used to run the show. it's your destination. you can use them, save them, and perhaps even expensive of the durations on those. anna: president maduro wins another term but the specter of sanctions and hangs over the oil industry. the president says the trade were with china is on hold. can the world's two largest economies resolve their trade differences. this is bloomberg.

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anna: 6:45 in london. thisutures have a bit morning. up around .6%. the headlines around trade seem to be set to boost the u.s. equity market. juliette saly is in singapore. ryanair has said and/or earnings are set to slump for the first time since 2016. europe's biggest discount airline says the internet income back toe 10% will fall range of 1.2 5 billion euros. declineld represent a of as much as 40%. the ceo joins us just after 7:00 a.m. u.k. time.

harbour energy has made a bid for santos. indicatedased company it could be raised further if santos expands its oil hedging program. -- at the equivalent of 6.9 five aussie dollars, that's a premium. the united arab emirates lance to allow full foreign ownership and companies and grant long-term visas to some .nvestors it's a significant departure from the policy of restricting foreign ownership outside free zones. the second-biggest gulf economy six to attract more investment. that's your bloomberg business flash. the former malaysian prime minister is to be questioned about the scandal.

it's part of a new investigation into billions of missing dollars, some of which appeared to end up in his bank account. our reporter spoke about this. if he would asking assume the role. think to suggest that we should could be given ample opportunity and support. passionstart giving the , he wouldn't be as effective. it's my duty then to ensure that he would be as ready as possible. the week i spent, long time with him. it looks passive of my concerns.

he has been very kind. . >> do you see him getting abused? input behind bars? -- being put behind bars? >> due process will have to be put in place. it would be a miscarriage of justice. a personal level, i have forgiven. i'm not going to pursue anything against him. but, what he squandered from the people, he has to answer. can the current government achieve

next five years? dismantle the more subjects,d, corrupt and make sure the authorities disciplined, and we can have a major breakthrough. this, i thinkeve a great feeling. to have a major task to have been played. anna: the prime minister in waiting speaking.

elsewhere in emerging markets, president nicolas maduro has one another term as millions of veterans women's boycotted the election. the regime pressed on despite the chance of further isolations. --y voices not resting not not recognizing the result of this. let's get more on the elections and the oil market impact. annmarie: menace when i has more oil than the saudi arabia and but-- then saudi arabia it's oil input has sharply declined. you can see this red circle win more sanctions were put on the venezuela and oil market and it really took a hit that year. data shows that venezuela and output is at one point -- 1.3 5 million barrels a day. exportersnd other

fill the supply shortfall? they could be a major challenge. currency,to the venezuela's currency has also been tumbling. currently one u.s. dollar gets you 184,000 boulevards. -- bolivars. confidence in its currency has quickly evaporated. businesses many demand foreign currencies over their local one. this is the index of the cafe come j. it tracks just one item, a cup incoffee with a bit of milk a bakery in eastern cross-ice. to 383,000 boliva rs. jump in 16000%

inflation. the inflation in just blows5000%, it my mind. john roe is still with us. job putting good those in context. on theack to the chart relationship between the dollar and emerging-market assets. everything else is noise, this is all about the dollar in em. would you agree with paul mcnamara? everything else is noise? john: in terms of what really matters, yes, but it hasn't been what has driven it specifically. can't continue to drag down

forever. it's predominantly a dollar story. emerging markets may turn out to be more sensitive to the dollar than the u.s. market. that's is causing the issue. anna: i have this chart that talks about the risk factors that you're looking at was some of these idiosyncratic cases. this is mapping onto axis. axes. two ze how risky is the politics? it highlights some of the names you expect to see. indonesia, argentina, turkey, south africa. avoiding?you are you interested in many places? you quite like contrarian locations. is one we are avoiding because it stands on this precipice and has his real degradation of its official institutions and increased

involvement by erdogan. they have high inflation already and are big importers of oil and they rely -- so when the oil price rallies like this, their beneficiaries with phil but now they have a picking up at the wrong time and they have this inflation problem. that's one we are a boarding. are hard to one we be invested in because it's so volatile and people are very negative about it. we are still marginally positive but we have to cut our positions because the volatility has gone to the roof. turkey is a good story, one we are avoiding. i want to pick up the currencies and the turkish lira is the most battered of all. where do we define a little bit of hope? south africa in the political story? for where youook

can afford to take a little bit of risk and get away with it? us, things like mexico where it's beaten up at the fundamentals are much stronger. there's a decent central bank. it's a nafta and election story which is very different from turkey where we are moving into a one-party state. alongside, india, the reform it is slow-moving but it's going to grow faster than china this year and has huge amounts of potential. keeping an eye. thank you so much, john. john roe, head of multi-at this legalti-asset funds at and general investment. he will be on bloomberg radio. next, ryanair says annual

earnings are set to slump for the first time since 2014. we will talk to michael o'leary, the ceo of ryanair. we will ask him what it means for u.k. shareholders in ryanair after brexit. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪ retail.

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look at you. this tech stuff is easy. [ whirring sound ] you want a cookie? it's a drone! i know. find your phone easily with the xfinity voice remote. one more way comcast is working to fit into your life, not the other way around. ♪ manus: good morning from a divide. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." anna: these are today's top stories. manus: the trump administration puts the u.s.-china trade war on hold. is in equities and u.s. futures jump. venezuela's president secures another six-year term. u.s. sanctions on the country's crude industry are under active review. 's prime minister

has agreed a leader for the coalition government. the new premier could be named as early as today. warm welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the dax is on vacation today so we have moved it up a little bit. american futures, asian equities were void by the trade truce. that is the headline you have coming through from the united states of america and china. little-known fact, it is iron or week in singapore. they have a week all to themselves. could have a new government in place. a professor from the university of florence could take hold

their. the pine is under pressure again. that is giving a little bit of a better term to futures. futures is off as france warned italy, do not neglect your fiscal duty in terms of the banks, in terms of the balance sheet. it is a big week in the markets. personalng to get expenditure. the absolute litmus test and line of the fed. anna: we were a worried about trade and also the entire drama. maybe we just go back to worrying about italy this week. pretty flat. ining off highs that we saw this session. the dollar getting a real boost.

the dollar much a stronger against a host of currencies this morning. we see much a stronger dollar. now is where we trade right in u.s. 10 year yield. market is boom of open and training in futures, trading at 15862. the rest of the european btp.ex, this is your we just had a conversation with legal and general saying that they don't see this as being the torch deeper of the next euro crisis because the institutions stop this new coalition from doing anything to radical in terms of expenditure.

this spread was 165 blitz last week. this is your oat. the french are warning the debtans, do not neglect and or and hard work that has been done. your bond market is going to see a huge supply in coming to the market. the question is, can the market absorb it, or are we at the best of a bond bull market? much of that to discuss in the markets a little bit later on. let's get to juliette with your first word news. juliette: u.s. stock futures have risen after the u.s. and china hit a truce. two biggest economies released a joint statement on saturday following

two days of meetings in washington between a senior officials, including president donald trump and the chinese vice premier. italy's populist parties have agreed on a prime minister. boss and five-star leader are expected to propose a cabinet as early as today. france has warned that the new administration must respect italy's that commitment and not threaten the current currency. in venezuela, the president one another six-year term as money into people boycotted the widely derided election. victory hands him a sole ownership of the nation's crushing economic crisis. the socialist regime proceeded with the presidential context despite the threat of further isolation and sanctions on the crisis stricken nation's all-important oil industry.

global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . we are seeing stocks here in asia high for a second consecutive session rising with u.s. futures as it seems the trade were between the u.s. and china has been put on hold for now. we are seeing the csi 400 up. pretty flat in australia. in terms of stocks, you have seen technology layers as chinese shipping firms all right on the backs that it does seem a we are going to see some agreement coming between china and the u.s. shipping and hong kong up 3%. u.s.the pledges to boost imports of u.s. agriculture will

drive demand for the shipping companies in this part of the world. also seeing a big rise in this part of the world in chinese gas suppliers today. has boosted his plans for clean, green energy in china. also following this story of santos in sydney. manus: well done. air is predicting a property decline this year. biggest discount er has to accept -- you use the phrase, your

pessimistic side. could get worse in terms of the government to have given us? what has pushed you to more pessimism? >> a lot depends on what happens with oil. -- hazed.hayes spot prices are close to $80 a barrel. to beverly to a shakeup of the industry as early as this winter. some of those companies will not be able to survive this winter with oil at $80 a barrel. the rate and speed of that shakeup will determine future earnings. for the moment, we are being pessimistic on pricing. assuming that nobody disappears this winter, which i think is unrealistic. there will be above average thinkty growth, so i

fares will be flat. there is no doubt that fares will rise. there tends to be a 12 month lag between fuel and airfares. think it is a question of timing. anna: i have this chart that shows the jet fuel price. you talk about your hedging. this sounds like it could be a positive story for ryanair. you don't see it that way? >> we are hugely profitable. questionbsolutely no -- the question is what is the region scared of? norwegianirlines like at $40ge losses with oil a barrel.

does the region go bust or will iag has taken a fight since taking norwegian. we don't know. those will be key issues for the next 12 months. there.have a good cough time,peak for a long that will get you a glass of water and we will both be off to the races. there you go. norwegian.ed watch isu think willie interested in norwegian? do you think he has gone mad? he is very clever and his track record suggests that he does not do silly things. i would question the timing of the 5% stake in norwegian.

jones described as one analyst as investing in norwegian is like catching a falling knife. ishink the danger here norwegian would probably have had to be significantly restructured or go into administration over the next 12 months. there, ie investing in think it will be much more difficult to deal with it. respectearned always to his views. he has had a terrific track record. certainly, norwegian is a good strategic fix. there are some competition cross overs in places like spain, where iag is very large. issues like that would be a challenge. i think the key issue for the industry is, we have been seeing capacity in your grow at above market or above gdp growth rates for the last number of years.

airlines like ryanair are very profitable. the processontinue of shaking up those competitors. $80 a barrel is something that will accelerate that process, which will be good over the medium-term, even if it will bad for guidance over the next 12 months. or you ever in talks with norwegian? ever interested in buying them? >> no. the problem with norwegian is that it is too big and growing too fast. the more it grows, the more money it loses. we are not interested in an airline that has a net debt of $4.5 billion and can't make money. manus: can i ask you about the other one line? ryan air will restrict non-eu holders voting rights in a hard brexit. having the best

scenario of a hard brexit? is that rising in your estimate? >> yes, it is rising in our estimate, but i think on balance, you think common sense would prevail and the brexit discussions between u.k. and europe. the brexit discussions here have not been carried on common sense. we remain concerned that there is a risk of a hard brexit as early as march 19. the table he needs to get its states on. it still hasn't explained how the customs linkage posted march 19. if there is a transition agreement to take this from april 19 to december 2020, nothing changes. think there is a real and appreciable risk that there will be a slip, that the negotiations will not be successful and that i will be a hard brexit here in march 19. we have the power and we are signaling it to investors that

we will disenfranchise non-eu shareholders. they will not be allowed to vote. and because it is imperative that we maintain both ownership and control with eu holders. anna: so that is what you are considering. have you had sounding from u.k. shareholders? what have a suggested they will do? >> each shareholder has their own decision to make. it is very clear that our u.s. and u.k. shareholders like the ryanair story. i don't think they will be that worried about their voting being restricted. manus: one other airline in the ae of the storm, you have labor issues of your own and unions to contend with, but air france has been sent a very clear warning shot from the ministerial level. which is you're not on the roster for bail out.

we have often talked about the flag carriers. first thinks, we don't have labor issues. we did agree in december to recognize unions. working through the process of recognizing unions, but we don't have a labor problem. people are very happy with the pay increases but they are earning and enjoying at the moment. our pay is now ahead of the market. air france and italian are the ring stories in aviation. i don't believe any french government when it says it won't bail out air france. it is a recurring nightmare and france. the unions are crazy. you look at the french air

traffic controllers who have been on strike every week and for the last six weekend despite the fact that they have nothing on their agenda other than -- it is not that they need any demands for pay increases. it is a politically motivated strike. france continues to be a basket case. macron reforms need to be implemented. we are heading for someone significant challenges there. i feel great sympathy for the management of air france. it is very difficult to run a company where the unions don't really see. the management as being the management they see the politicians as being the ultimate managers. nobody believes that the french government will not bail out air france. anna: that is the air france story. you have managed to secure part of air berlin. what are your plans for this airline? about them ishing that they are in airbus

operator.for the first time, it allows us the opportunity to develop a relationship with airbus. it has a lot of very valuable stock in vienna. it is a small operation. this summer, they will only have 20 aircraft. we think it will double in size over the next three or four years subject to what is being able to secure additional airbus aircraft. will be in operation we have acquired at a low cost out of the air berlin bankruptcy. lufthansa had -- agreed to buy it, but we picked it up for about $60 million. we are working closely with them to make up the number one low-cost airfare and austria. manus: you touched on two things there with airbus.

the question that goes around in our mind is how seriously you are about airbus or is it just a tactic to drive the going price is down on the 737? >> we have already secured a terrific pricing on the boeing. the most exciting thing about the ryanair story at the moment, is in the spring of 2019, we take the first of the boeings. 4% more seats and 60% lower fuel consumption. position very exciting in the ryanair growth story. always been skeptical about ryanair as a potential customer because they leave knowing will undercut whatever offer airbus made to us. one of the original motivations for us when we first started was to have an airbus operator within the ryanair group.

veryircraft supplier is tight with airbus at the moment. it will be a challenge for the next year or two. the backstop as we can always grow with the new boeing aircraft. we are not tried to put pressure on boeing. we have a great relationship with boeing. we have aircraft owners that take us up to 2024 and allow us to grow 20 million customers. growis an opportunity to and develop a relationship with airbus. supplyld have a relationship with boeing and was also have a supply relationship with airbus. not because either of them will compete against each other, but because in a downturn, there will be opportunities with both. if something does happen to norwegian at the end of this year, there will be a lot of aircraft thathad may be floating around and we

would like to be able to opportunistic lay jump on some of them. anna: what percentage did you see airbus being of your aircraft? is just a thought the moment? >> it is very much a plan. 440t now, ryanair is a aircraft fleet. i would like to see maybe have a 100 airbus aircraft the next three or four years and 500 boeing aircraft. there is no reason airbus could not grow to be a 10% or 20% up in the size of the fleet. manus: tears, mate. -- cheers, mate. 1% to ae lira weakening record low versus the dollar. the politics continue. the stress of the dollar certainly one feature of the market. theainly, the lira one of

strugglers in the market. manus: euro stocks finishing a little bit stronger at the turn. there's a trade interest between china and the nine states of america. -- united states of america. you have prices rising ever so slightly on the burns. juliette standing by in singapore. juliette: harbor energy has made a final bid for substantial claiming support from the australian oil and gas shareholders. --y improved their bid by share, dollars 21 four

that is an 11% premium to friday's close. the united arab emirates plans someant long-term visas to investors and professionals. there are significant the purchase from the policy of restricting foreign ownership outside free zones. that comes as the second biggest goals six to attract more investment. chelsea football club owner roman is reportedly facing delays at renewing his u.k. visa. the russian billionaire did not attend the final. he is in the process of renewing his be so what is taking longer than usual. britain passed security minister said we do not routinely comment on individual cases. the largest a proxy advisory firm is recommending that investors reject two of tesla's

board members. by opposing directors in seeking to install an independent chairman, institutional shareholder services is wrapping tothe pressure on tesla improve its nine member board in the wake of production delays on its mass-market model three. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you very much. story.o back to the lira the lira at another all-time low. started the show with guy talking with the turkish minister. we have had a

conversation with john from legal. moving to a one-party state in their view on the turkish story. this is where the risks are building versus other emerging market stories like india, which buying.ld consider other emerging markets which perhaps are a little bit stronger, this is the one that reeks the most amount of fear. turkey repent trading their gold from the united states, that was on twitter yesterday afternoon. certainly a story that is fascinating. anna: let's talk about what has been going on in the broad market's. us futures rose after the white house is that a trade war with china is on hold for now. world's two biggest economies least a joint statement yesterday after top-level meetings in washington. that certainly put a bid on u.s. futures this morning.

>> it is good news. think secretary mnuchin said the battle is still to come. think you are seeing that reaction from some congressman. this is a battle about technology and who is going to win the next century? i think they want to see more details around property roles and patent laws before we get too excited. manus: do you begin to see geopolitics as going off if we get through this issue and the north korean negotiations actually begin to happen? is that what begins to take political risk off the global table for you? >> i think the fiscal risk is going to be every president in

the market this year. i think is going to stay on the agenda. think the skepticism around the north korean talks, weather cam is generally willing to denuclearize. anna: the two parties involved in italy have taken the euro off the agenda. >> it is often agenda until there is a downturn or recession in the eurozone in italy. i think while we still have this momentum, that gets put to one side. it is not a very popular measure. i don't think this coalition government will go on the attack unless there is a more serious issue at hand. manus: thank you very much. of course, the euro is declining six days in a row. sincengest losing streak

november 2016. anna, good to see you this morning. anna: you too. that is it for "bloomberg daybreak: europe." bloomberg. mom, dad, can we talk?

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guy: welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." we are live from our european headquarters in london. matt miller is off today. cash trade is just a 30 minutes away. the trump truce. the white house assisted the u.s.-china trade war is on hold. european and u.s. futures pointing higher right now.

italy is expected