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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  May 25, 2018 3:30pm-5:00pm EDT

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summit." matusz said diplomats are working to get the summit back on track. matusz called the recent -- mattis called the recent back and forth between the president and north korea, the usually give and take. the death toll of the air crash has his on the 112. that leaves a 19-year-old as the sole survivor. the jet crashed shortsly after takeoff from havana. the crashes remains under investigation. the navy's new aircraft carrier is headed back to a virginia shipbuilding yard after problems were discovered during sea trials. the gerald r. ford already needs fixes. repairs are expected to take about a year. and the british economy barely grew in the first quarter.
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g.d.p. rose .1%. consumer spending lowe's momentum and companies cut investments. global news 4 hours a day, on air and attic tock on twitter, powered by more that be 2,700 journalists and analysts. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> i am lisa abramowicz. julia is on assignment. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. >> and i'm joe wisen that will. lisa: we were 340 minutes from the close of trading here in the u.s. scarlet: just 24 hours after president trump called off his summit with kim jung un, the
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meeting could still be on. and more mixed messages from the white house. ey're trying to strike a controversial deal for z.t. effort to stay in business. and colombia is heading to the polls this weekend to elect a new president. lisa: amanda lang sat down with fair fax chairman and chief exec active officer. take a listen. >> canada is a wonderful country. i came here 46 years ago and anything i've done would not have happened if i didn't come to canada. so canada, fantastic country. a country that -- i didn't nope anyone. i came with almost no money and people supported me for my future, for the money to fund fairfax when we began so canada is a wonderful country. but we have to be careful because we have the united
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states as our partners next to us and when they get very business-friendly policies then by comparison ours are less friendly so attracting investment then, of course, the investment could two to the united states as opposed to canada. but we benefit from the fact that we're next to the u.s. if the u.s. does well, we do well. >> do you ever neither in the investment portfolio emotionally? >> if i do, there are enough people around me that will stop me. >> so black bishop won't be an example of canadian loyalty or old friendship -- 1 >> blackberry i got to know through the founders and they requested me to go on the board and the reason we put a lot of money in that company was because of john chen. john chen is an outstanding executive. long track record and i met him just like that in san francisco like you and i are chatting
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and he had a terrific tunch around at a company called samer space and he said, you know, for every plaque bury that existed and i really don't want this company to go town and he said would you look at programs joining the company? i said i have to talk to my wife but if she says yes, i will and he joined us and if he hadn't come, we likely wouldn't have put out any money. you have all the downsides of technology, apple vs. blackberry and am does really well, black bare shares go down -- but you can change that around. he's gone into software and he's building software now and when he came in, the company was
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losing a billion, as you might remember. it's broken even. we have 2.5 billion in cash and a ton of opportunity ahead of hem so john and cy base, the ock was worth $4, $5 when he he came in moves people thought it would go bankrupt in the next year or two and it didn't. he wanted to stabilize it and 10 years later sold out to $65 to s&p. that's a present good arraignment of return. >> have will be the investments gnaw regret? >> tons of them. tons of them. john templeton, who, by the way, -- he was a meantor to us.
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john made this terrific statement. in business, if you get two out of three right, you have one of the best track records. he said he looks at his record, two three -- one of the best track records in the mutual fund industry. e have 1/3, a ton of where, -- wrongs, ton of mistakes. >> does it bother you when they go wrong? >> it bothers me some but i understand. one out of three. we learn from them. we try to figure out what the mistakes were but it's a fascinating business because there's no right answer. you know, you bye something and then the president might go and expand and borrow too much money. you thought he was a terrific guy but then he goes and expands and all the industry dynamics change as we're having so many industries being affected by amazon.
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it's a fascinating business. i never plan to retire. >> you never plan to retire? >> god willing, of course. yeah, as long as i hold up, i plan to continue to work. >> what motivates you every day? >> what motivates me is to build a good company. good canadian company nall outlast me. located right here in toronto and i'm hoping in 100 years that this company will still be here, perhaps in the same office and the fellows and ladies running it will continue to run this company. that's what we're trying to build, a company that lasts for a long time. good principles, a good culture. treat people well. we follow the golden rule, treat everyone like you want to be treated and i must say, doing it for 32 years, we have a very lovely culture. no complacency, we have to continue to build on it but
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that's what motivates medical. >> you mentioned successionings. you have that many mind? there's a plan. >> of course. and my company and family has that. the if talking to you, i slim away, they know exactly what to do. >> don't do that. >> that was the fairfax financial holdings cheap executive officer. is it off or on? the meeting with kim jung uncould be happening again. live from new york, this is bloomberg. s bloomber >> leverage has been building up over the last year or so. >> yes, broadly yields are at
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the low. >> behind the curve to some extent already. exten t already.
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scarlet: is it on or off? president trump wrote to north korean leader kim jong-un yesterday canceling their
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scheduled meeting in north creal. the president said just this morning maybe they'd have that summit after all. president trump: we'll see what happens. it could easily be the 12th. we talked to them this morning. they very much want to do it. we want to do it. we'll see what happens. >> we have perspective on the ongoing trailed discussions with sara mcgregor from ottawa. bill, let's start with you in washington. one thing the president also said when asked by reporters on whether north korea was playing games ahead of the summit he said everyone place games. so this is part of a long gamesmanship here? bill: right, heading into this even before yesterday, analysts who follow north creal said this is going to be a rocky reeled heading into june 12. the rhetoric had gotten much more egg in active from north korea over the last week and a half or so. according to the u.s., north
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koreans kind of stopped answering their phones and didn't show up to some planning meetings in singapore. it wasn't the kind of behavior that was totally unaccepted and the president signaled today he'd be willing to consider june 12 if that's still possible or some other point. i think it's clear the white house wants in meeting. north korea has long sought -- sought a meeting with a u.s. president. the idea of perspective donald trump meeting kim jong-un is still on. whether that's june 12 or in the weeks or months to follow. joe: bill, how can they plan a summit if north korea wasn't answering the phone calls? regardless of what naysay, if they weren't even responding when the summit was ostensibly on, what does that sape? >> yeah, it's hard to explain the reasoning or decision-making there. that was the u.s. argument. the north koreans seemed to
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think that if there was any coordinate nation or communication issues that they wanted to get past that and were still open to the opportunity of night. so i can't getted in of that problem but it does sound like both sides still wants to see this happen in some form. scarlet: sara, i want to get your impression on what china's role with the whole north korea negotiations has been. a lot of people saying china has been the orchestrator behind the scenes of all this. do we have any sense of how many afraid negotiations -- negotiations between the u.s. and china factored into north korea talks? >> i think there was a feeling when the north korea summit was canceled yesterday that there was a -- this was a chance now maybe for trump to resume his harder line on china. he, of course, probably would have needed china in any deal with north korea because there's
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a really strong economic and political ally. i think the thinking was now trump could go hard again on china. but now the trump administration has briefed the media that it es intend to roll back these rate hikes. tpwhaw does now suggest, and i think what a lot of lawmakers are concerned about is that the trump administration is bending a bit to the chinese pressure here. >> i know there's this question about whether z.t.e. is a trade story or a national security story. a lot of people say it shouldn't have anything to do with trade but just national security. based on your reporting today, is it participate of the trade story? >> yes, and i would have argued yes even a week or two ago. it was on the list of demands
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that china presented to the u.s. when it asked for trailed restrictions. it says ease the restrictions on z.t. effort. the company says it's lost more an $1 billion since this man on suppliers and it's basically crippled the un-- country. it's obviously not divorced from the trade talks and i think it's really important that -- also just overarchingly, it's an interesting point that national security is the ground for a lot of these trade actions by the trump administration and that's the worry with z.t.e. by a lot of lawmakers that perhaps it's a national security risk. you do see all this confluence between foreign policy, trailed policy and what's happening with china. lisa: confluence is a great word. personnel is policy. we know the point person on china trailed discussions. who's the point person on north
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korea? is it still mike pompeiio or sit john bolton -- pompeo or is it john bolt season >> that's a great question. we expect mike pompeo is still heavily involved. he's the only person who has met kim jong-un. met him twice in the last few months. he clearly has a good channel to north release -- rae -- north korea but john boflten came yoon to the scene, joined the white house a few weeks ago right when all of this was coming together and has the president's ear every day, perhaps several times a day. he's been much more of a hard liner on north korea and his comments about libya, we haven't seen much of bolton since he made those controversial comments. but he's been more skement cam
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and has called for a regime change. there may be a weird internal dynamic going on here that the president is getting pushed and pulled on. but the president made pretty clear this morning if possible, he'd like this meeting, this u.s. to go on. scarlet: john bolton, we might not be hearing a lot from him but i'm sure he's very active behind the scenes. >> maybe, maybe not. >> the chief executive officer of it would bank is optimistic that a good deal on nafta is imminent. he spoke exclusively on bloomberg television. >> at the end of the day i think we will get a deal on thata but the uncertainty around trade is there. t-mobile confirmed it hired
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turnberry solutions, which is linked to a former trump campaign advisor. it seeks federal approval for its proposed take over of u.s. sprint. the journal says he gets a cut of fees paid to the firm on the t-mobile contract. pepsico is raising it bet that americans wants healthier snafpblgts they've acquired bayer foods, the san francisco manufacturerer of vegetable-infused snacks. pepsi coke has increasingly relied on growth in that business as more americans drifts away from soda. scarlet: our stock of the hour is quest dying knost i said, one of the best performers in the s&p 500 today. we brought in julie for the details. julyy: the stock is up 5%.
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it's been a pretty steady gainer through the day. they happened an exclusive rhythm with lab corp so now it's extended it to quest diagnostics. log corp was a long term partner with united health. it's also extending its relationship with aetna so its shares are also higher too. one analyst said that in is a clearing event for lab comp, that they're akuwaiting the announcement from united health. that was kind of overhanging the company. >> this is a petch, not an investment, right? >> right. >> could it lead to that? >> it doesn't look like it at this point. basically it gives quest diagnostics access to more patients. that same analyst said it is
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clearly a positive with yuneled health. 48 million-plus covered patients. it will have access to all insuranced patients nationally. >> are there other companies that will be interested in acquiring quest dynamics? there have been a lot of mergers, not necessarily primary partners in the past. to -- i yew seen a push posed that question to jonathan palmer because that occurred to me also that with all of this activity, we haven't we seen it with lap corp or quest dynamics. he says it's not viewed by many .c.'s or investors of having a
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really business model. that's because it relies heavy a-- heavily on government and insurance reimbursement yes. here you're looking at the revenue growth start. but if you look at a stock chart, you'll see that last year there was a big drop when medicine care came out with its so ursement glifpbletse when you rely on something like that so heavily and that's your main business line, that can be programs challenging for an acquirer to come in but that could change in the next decade as we see all of this mixing in the industry. >> lots of things in fluck -- flux there. thank you so much and have a great holiday weekend. >> thank you. >> we have the charts that you can't miss, next. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. you would any that a stronger dollar, rallying oil prices would mean a less healthy financial market. you would be wrong. the bottom panel here, the indexes. e is the yeah, we've seen things tighten up but since the end of the quarter, conditions have loosened. that's the same case for other metrics. the i.s. spread is the blue line and the financial index, is the white line. a lot of people say that even though conditions have tightened overall, they're too easy for a ear session or depression to start. the trajectory we've been on kind of backs up and pushes that narrative. lisa: really interesting.
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in europe today the action was in italy and has been so far this week. i'm looking at the spread, the gap between italian 10-year bonds and german 10-year bonds. check this out. it has gone vertical over the past week with the yields on italian bonds going up as quickly as it has in years to the highest level since 2015. meanwhile, german boons have seen yields -- yields drop. why? the populist government in italy has come up with some why would professionals and there is going to be department of sit spending, anti-eurozone discussions and this is causing risk-offs in italy dealt. >> so in addition to italy, obviously the other big anxieties are about the emerging market. some countries, oil importers, others, the dollar strength due
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to international imbalances and obligations. you timly see that in the currency mark. this charlotte looks at the j.m. -- j.p. market volatility index. i got something in my eye. the blue line is the turquoise line and you can see they're basically moving together for a long time, up until essentially march of this year and now we see this spread emerging. the first tangible evidence that we're seeing real e.m. anxiety, likes of which we haven't seen in a while. scarlet: you wonder how much of that will go into the rest of the world. this is a global deep dive much lisa: and there are still jitters everywhere. so go figure. scarlet: maybe it takes everyone coming back from a holiday so reassess. the nasdaq is firmer but the dow
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and s&p 500 getting ready to close lower on this friday. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: u.s. stocks closed mixed to end the week. crude oil takes his biggest fall. for julia chatterley. we want to welcome you to closing bell coverage. we begin with market minutes, u.s. stocks ended the day with a mixed note. the nasdaq giving back quite a bit of its gains. 1/10 of 1%. while the dow% and s&p have an underwater work most of the day. you can see it reflected in the sector write-down. the biggest decliners were energy stocks. that oil price. one of the most interesting aspects.
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scarlet: one of the reasons the names are holding up could be foot locker. improvement in the flow of premium goods from top vendors. it's top vendor is nike. you can see shares jumping 20% on the day. herbalife plunging. the biggest shareholder and cheerleader is selling a quarter of his chair. cap is losing steam. disappointing quarterly. the division better public performed better than expected. interestingly, old navy did not. they had been to the star performer of gap's brand. joe: let's take a look at the u.s., the 10 year yield down to
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move inis is quite a the past three days. we thought this was a big of move, people have been very short treasuries. a lot of people are eric shawn this. maybe we are finally seeing some of that intense short covering today. anxiety from around the world. in a bid intog treasuries that caused a lot of shorts to go the other way. speaking of those anxieties, check out short-term rates in peripheral europe. despite has not been on many people's radar, but a big up , the concern about the stability of the spanish as the coalition threatens to withhold support, there is a corruption thing going on and he says he will serve out his term. italy, it just keeps shooting up. look at that move on the short
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end as the new populist government gets closer to taking shape with promise to carry out some controversial aspects of policy. and economic investors registering here concerning you. lisa: it's interesting, because corollary inthe the bond market in the currency market, i'm looking at the dollar, the stronger dollar and weakeninge the euro substantially against the dollar. it was pretty consistent throughout the week. this goes to people coming into the u.s. and line up those bonds to capture higher yields. seeing a stronger u.s. economy with ongoing disappointment from european economic data. talkhile, we have to current seas, we have about the turkish lira. absolute freefall this week. the u.s. dollar gaining more
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than 5% against the turkish lira. the central bank finally stepping in and raising a key benchmark rate 300 basis points. it was not enough with the lira continuing to all. today, taking a look at the flip of the stronger dollar is weaker -- you are seeing a gain in emerging-market currencies forth a full week. it goes to show it is not just -- yes we are seeing idiosyncratic stories but we are seeing people looking for value in developing markets. and on the commodities front, check out crude oil. with commentsnd out of the south -- saudi arabia. maybe some indication out of the they don't want
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to upset their customers anymore and so we have a sharp move down. not doingsickly anything, right there at $1300 per ounce. those are today's market minutes. scarlet: for more on today's action let's take bring on kevin corona. he joins us from new jersey. kevin, great to see you. let's start with energy. plunging in oil prices and energy shares leading to decline off by 2.6%. is this a rethinking and re-rating of energy companies? they had been lagging the rally and investors seem to finally be convinced that they were a goodbye and now we are seeing a rethink here on opec. kevin: i think you have to put it in a bigger framework. look at commodity prices in general. go beyond oil and look at metals and the whole complex. and look at metalsseen is
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and the whole complex. that what you have seen is a big move up in the past 12 months. as we have come through this, we have seen a much higher commodity races but we know what is the answer to higher commodity prices is higher commodity price because it will bring in more pressure. ultimately we are looking at a good economy, one that has been buffeted by inflation worry and that is being played out in the aunt and oil market but maybe we have gone to part with those traits. looking behindam you. it looks like one person. an empty day heading into the long weekend. pity quiet there? kevin: i would say so. lisa: do think any of the moves we are seeing right now are on and trading before the long weekend? kevin: yes. that will be some of it. volume in the trading
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action, we tend to be more investment focus with a bit of a longer term and macro. tough isate to date not going to move the needle for us. today would be a lighter volume day so if you were trading around it you would want to pay attention to the lack of volume. concerned are you about some of the brewing attention overseas whether it is in spain or italy or argentina, suddenly -- a lot ofile global market politics seems to be dominated the conversation. , talk i think ultimately about a brew, this has been a steady simmer for a long time now. we keep moving from one geopolitical concern to another. there are various pressure points we have seen all along the way. you have to think about rex it and all of the problems with
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europe and asia, we think about things that are going on with global trade. this is just one thing after another after another. the market has been come a little bit less sensitive to the headline and it is focused very importantly on the fundamentals. what we are seeing suggests an economy that grows relatively strong and earnings that are relatively strong. ultimately it will go right back to that. ultimately, back to the fundamentals and that is driving the market. scarlet: i need to make a correction to what i said earlier. the nasdaq was up i 3/10 of 1%. the 1% reference i was talking about was for the week. that the nasdaq outperformed the broader markets at this much of a margin. the dow up 2/10 of 1%. netflix,was looking at which is now the most valuable media company and the world. amazon trading at a record as
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well. is it being driven by sentiment or fundamentals? kevin: the growth complex in general and check has really been the star of the show for the last 18 months. fang has been a big part of it. we are discounting and as far as growth and technology are concerned and aggressive kind of assumption. we have gone from an overweight on technology which would include the fang stocks to an underweight position and reversed it to where we are now looking for my value complex. it would work well if interest rates stop rising and begin to fall and we could see how it would be good for several of the more value oriented pieces of the puzzle.
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ultimately, the growth side has in part of it. lisa: kevin, thank you for joining us. have a wonderful long weekend. coming up, we are taking whole stew the world's biggest economy. what to watch in u.s. economic data. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> let's get to first word news this afternoon. lease a a male student opened higher at a suburban indianapolis school this morning. toice say the student asked be excused from class and returned with two handguns.
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the two people shot were taken to the hospital and the extent of their injuries is unclear. the shooting happened about 20 miles outside of indianapolis. president is pivoting again on the summit with our korea. the president said today he ared still meet kim jong-un as originally scheduled. they've resume talks after what he called its nice statement. president trump also told graduates at the united states naval academy that " we have begun rebuilding the u.s. will a terry." to prevent war is to be fully prepared. if a fight must come there is no other alternative, victory. the president praised the military saying you don't give up, you don't give in. russia's foreign minister essays he has -- foreign minister he has urged his counterpart
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regarding the downing of a flight for years ago. the netherlands and australia said today they are holding russia legally responsible for the july 2014 crash that killed all 294 people on board. global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. what'd you miss? we get some key economic information next week. for eight preview let's bring in u.s. economy reporter. joe: matt, thanks for joining us. one of the things you will look ,t and you brought us a chart broken down by age group. tell us what were looking at.
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is the bigjob report thing on the calendar. -- thatthing these days is something that has caught fed officials off guard. some of the top line shows the working edge demographic that 25-54-year-old. you can see they have been trending higher sense 2016 or own. the bottom lines shows 16 to 24-year-olds and it has been going down in the last 15 to 20 years. even it is picking up. the implication is if labor force participation rates continue to go up, they have been a big surprise so far. if it continues you might not see as much wage growth because we are continuing to drop people back into the labor force. joe: it is interesting with the 16 to 24 euros, because there has been a pretty big cultural change in 30 years in terms of
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teenagers. at least it will appear something major has changed the way. in theory, a could go back a on of the things i think about this, a lot of people say because more people you lookhool, but if at the labor report participation of people enrolled in school, the chart also looks like this, so people who are enrolled in school or working a lot less than they were in the past. now that we start to see that turn up, maybe it is a sign that people are really starting to reach into those demographics that they have not been hiring. scarlet: to what extent does the participation rate include people who work hard time jobs are volunteer or internships, those types of things that are now the norm for kids or people who are 18 to 24 but were not back in the 80's or 70's? >> so all of the part-time work is included in these numbers. the fact that it has declined of arrangements
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have increased domestic the fact that there may be a lot more labor's of what out there than anybody thinks. lisa: another aspect we will be looking for next week's how much more are we paying for our coffees and our restaurant visits? ma will be looking at cpi and four services. know goods and prices have been in deflation, they are not sensitive to the labor market. the fed focuses on the services spec -- services sector. iferesting thing is is that you look at service inflation, i have taken out housing. the yellow line shows the cpi version. pceblue line shows the version we will get next week. the pce version is just as high as it has been in the exciter -- in the entire expansion. the key thing is there is no upward trend here. this reason breakout and services and inflation is a interesting question.
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is this a cyclical swing within this title that may be would go back down again since there has been no upward trend or is this the start of a break out into a new hire range? an interesting question. it will settle the debate on the phillips curve and whether it exists or not. lisa: if very a particular part of the service industry we are seeing? people pay more for what they're getting? >> that's a good question. the surge in the pce services has been a lot of those impeded prices we have been talking about that aren't really hard prices that are paid for by consumers. there things like financial services and health care where you have to do a lot of model calculations and it does seem some of that is driving an uptick in inflation. of thing wekind could expect to reverse especially on the financial services fund. scarlet: as a look ahead to next week, there will also be
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construction spending numbers on friday as well. you are keeping a close eye on one aspect of that arid. >> i think the interesting thing with construction is residential spending. in particular, multi-family spending. it was down 8% on a year-over-year basis in march. that is pretty rough. you don't see a decline like that out of a recession. the reason is because we have had a big room in multifamily housing in this expansion. you can see it surged a couple years ago. this istion is important for big rental inflation components. to the extent that this is saying that this is a reflection of the oversupply in multifamily housing, it could be a negative for rental inflation. scarlet: in other words it is bad for rent to go down or not go up as quickly? lisa: for the data point.
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i'm trying to understand where that is -- why we want to rent to go up for the economy. >> i don't think any of us what rent to go up for the economy, but the fact that it is such a large component of these rice indices. if you have these theories that inflation should move up throughout the business cycle and it comes down to housing, this is another joe: but you weren't making a value judgment. >> now. none of that here. scarlet: value judgment free zone. economy reporter, thank you so much. coming up, a crude reality for russia. the energy minister weighs in on falling oil prices. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: what'd you miss? crude crunch. oil is falling by the most of this year. trigger for the game. we spoke with russia's energy minister about these changes. first of all, when we discussed the corporation alwaysly, we have assumed the possibility to review quotas in june would exist. based upon market conditions which would be at that time. a limitary agreements on that appeared what i would yesterdayress is that and today no decisions were made. we discussed possibilities that were always on the table. the decision would only be made when all the ministers are gathered in june. >> there are some members who won't see any benefit from others increasing production. how will you persuade them to support this basel that you spoke about in st. petersburg? >> first of all, before we make
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a final decision in june, we're going to once again look into the numbers and study them in detail. before the discussion. and, i believe nobody in the opec group is interested in seeing and overheated market. there are many factors pushing up and from geopolitical factors. we know that these factors significantly affect the price. when the price is right and when it is high, consumers could be penalized and they could act differently. that is why we are aiming to restore supply. the mechanism we you which will be eased or strengthen depending on what the market needs. >> some countries may disagree.
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you expect some dispute when you start the consultation? >> i strongly believe that we will find a compromise if -- because all countries are interested. >> the market could handle higher oil prices, what has happened now? is it trump's tweets, the iranian sanctions, sensibly win elections -- venezuelan elections? >> the key factor in the discussions which we have is the increased deficit that we see. we are currently below the five-year average which was our target initially carried so 340 million barrels that were there when we started the declaration have now turned into a -20. we have renewed the overhang. we will continue assessing this we are alsod, looking at how demand instruction could occur when
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prices are too high. we have experience of the will see how the demand instruction occurred in the past. i believe no countries are interested in a volatile market where prices either shoot up or significantly collapse. that is why we need to carefully assess. among other factors, which we are looking into and currently affecting the markets, are first of all in the third quarter we will see a seasonal demand spike. higher oil consumption. and, in april, we have seen a cumulative cut of 2.7 million barrels when the initial target was 1.7 or 1.8. we are expecting more declines in venezuelan output and these are the factors which we need to look into. and analyze how they impact the
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oil markets. >> brent recently hit $80 a barrel but now it is down. what do you think the price should be or at least a range? course see and enter the market and see how it affects today's statement spirit of the same time, i would like to remind that we do not forecast price and we do not set the price. that is what the market does. the price is indeed affected by a very large number of different factors. what i can say is that fundamentals are indicating that the market is very close to balance or balanced already. but as far as other factors are concerned sus as the risk free such as- risk premium pulling out of the red deal, those factors are difficult to assess and to predict. scarlet: that was alexander lira, up next the turkish is in turmoil. what is next for the crashing currency?
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> let's get to first word news this afternoon. president trump is accusing democrats of rooting against nuclear talks with north korea. are tweet he said they defending ms 13 bugs. he come loaded by thing they have lost touch. the day after the president cancel the summit with north korea, pyongyang said his still willing to give the u.s. time. president trump told reporters it could still happen on june 12 as originally planned. iraq's prime minister has ordered the creation of a high-powered commission to look into elected irregularities in this month election.
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people areirst time taking complaints about the vote seriously. electronics month in voting system was used for the first time here it disgraced movie mogul harvey weinstein has been charged with rape, sexual abuse and sexual misconduct. involved two women after his arraignment this morning, his bail was set at $1 million. he will also wear an electronic monitoring device at all times, have restrictions on travel and surrender his passport. allegations of sexual assault career and response the mobileme to movement. hawaii'suption on island has sent -- crowd 10,000 feet into the air. the u.s. geological survey says thel ash is coming from summit. the volcano has destroyed nearly 50 structures and forced
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thousands to evacuate. global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter. leinz, this is bloomberg. scarlet: let's get a recap of today's market action. downed day and the s&p slightly. the nasdaq gaining. that is begot at the end of the week as well. people trying to come to terms with what is going to happen with the u.s. and north korean summit as well as trade talks. what'd you miss? turkey is confronting a currency crisis. it is forcing extreme monetary measures. here now to talk about what is ahead is paul mcnamara. paul, great to see you. paul: nice to be here. scarlet: turkey took this emergency rate hike earlier in the week. yesterday for this morning they will allow them to repay dollar
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loans in local currency. does it change anything? paul: i don't think it does. this also much allowing them to repay in local currency as setting the rate so it is protecting the firms at the cost of the government to the taxpayer from the losses incurred to to the weaker lira heritage will not stop the lira falling. it's all very well hiking rates. i think this is the third time they have done it in recent months. what they do is hike rates and expand their credit guarantee scheme. a gear -- a government scheme encouraging thanks to lend. the external balance deteriorates and things keep getting worse. then just to be extra helpful, last week the president was in london and met with investors, the lunch which bloomberg organized was a complete car crash from an investor when a few.
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if you look around the world, ec high interest rates and high in asian go together, therefore high interest rates cause high inflation. theverybody came out of meeting and sold all their turkish exposure and they were anding the central bank had one of the economy ministers to london to try -- >> damage control. how do you damage control and the president doesn't understand finance? paul: it's a good question. joe: what would you have to see policy wise to say these are the type of moves that the signal the lira may be ready to stabilize? paul: actually tighten credit. don't just raise the price. so quantity -- and the quantity the quantity of credit down, but that will have impacts. we are already at the stage where credit is expensive in lira. if you been bothering and
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dollars it's getting more expensive. joe: is that a difficult policy to do in the run-up to the election? paul: and also when we are already getting to see signs of distress and debts restructured with major corporations and financial distress. lisa: the big question is whether this is a argentina specific story or e.m. broadly? you can see the yellow line on this chart is the argentine peso falling 24% so far this year, it is normalized as of last year, turkish line is the lira go way down and the white line is the ms the eye emerging markets currency index, is this a broader issue or is this a specific story? paul: it is two things. the specific stories in argentine ant turkey, but also the broader story of the u.s. dollar. it is always been a big case.
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on average, the feds trade and it goes up 1%, dollar goes up one point 4% and that is what happens. lisa: are you prepared to go into argentina's or turkeys currency at the white? paul: argentina looks interesting. it looks fixable. they can't live with higher interest rates and start to bring things around. turkey we don't see signs to do more than hike rates and pretend it is heightening credit. scarlet: now that we have compared the two come are there any lessons that turkey can draw from argentina the way that argentina has approached its crisis? paul: not really. one is a commodity exporter and the other is a commodity importer. their economic structures are different. they have trouble getting the locals to trust the currency. to emerge in markets where people don't hold deposits in local currency.
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turkey,when it comes to what everyone has been saying about interest rates and questions about the independence of the central bank, these are old stories by this point. this has been going on for years. there -- there has been idea that election could stability, but from an economics can with, can there be stability under the current government. paul: i think there can. there, had good times but they need to get credit under control. so yes, they can but i don't think they will. scarlet: you talked about the stronger dollar being a drag on emerging markets over all, separate from the turkey and argentina story. e.m. suffered during the 2013 taper tantrum, you made the point that this time is different from then. why, explain?
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paul: never a fun argument maker put is different is that in 2013, they were running a trade deficit, take out china and they are running a trade deficit. at the moment, that same group including argentina and turkey are in balance. emerging currencies are more systematically week and you have external deficits. scarlet: let me jump in here with a headline, moody's may cut italy's rating, it's the aa to credit rating. this just crossed. the rating may be cut high modi. joe: speaking of e.m., right? scarlet: real quick i'm wondering are there any other countries where you are seeing opportunities right now? paul: russia. when you see the oil price up here. andmbia when you see venezuela, venezuela is venezuela. i think russia and columbia stand up because usually, given the strength we see in oil we
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would expect much more response those if we haven't seen it this time. much for paulu so mcnamara parity will be sticking with us. when we come back, we are counting down to columbia's election. joe: and, get involved in the conversation, sent me a tweet on what you want to hear from paul. i tweet charts and videos. i was going to ask him about his -- ever mind. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: what'd you miss? columbia it heads to the polls this weekend. it is the first-round of voting in the residential election. paul mcnamara here to explain what is at take. we actually spoke with the leading candidate, take a listen
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to what he told us back in march. >> one of the things i'm proposing is to eliminate unnecessary spending, to a reform and central governments of we can be more efficient, use better technology, and eliminate duplicity is in many works we have among agencies. and with that, and also fighting the tax evasion on corporate taxes, we can lower the rate, increase investment come and make that the trigger of and and formalization in job creation. scarlet: that is a big and ambitious to do list. suppose that he does win, is it priced into the peso? paul: at the moment there are still looking for him to win. he's 10 points ahead in the polls right now. there's always a shakeup is all but certain he will be in the runoff paired if that leads the starts to narrow coming up to the runoff, we might get some uncertainty. but columbia's the one country where the orthodox candidate is expected to beat the populist.
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which is e.m. and dm unusual. lisa: there are bunch of elections paired with columbia andnything it looking for what to buy. paul: not so much. politics matters most in brazil. the nature of markets is that when you look at nafta and's the collection. lisa: you make the markets sound so horrible. actually come i think it is a clear way of looking at the different themes. wouldn't it just as much be how it deals with potential refugee problem from venezuela? paul: it's very difficult to make any predictions about venezuela because columbia has been observing people out of venezuela.
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they're closer to the end than the beginning. absolutely not something people are focused on at the moment. joe: let's talk mexico. break now, people are focused on nafta but there is an election thethere could be candidate. paul: they are cheap by any standard. a lot of volatility happening in mexico. it has ridden stuff out. if your president isn't the most protectable. there is a scenario where, if mr. lopez followed through on the worst of his policies, and you get a bad negotiation, things would go wrong, but we are down to a low probability scenario which is not priced in. joe: so right now you are being
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compensated for some down side. paul: we've been losing money in mexico for a while. scarlet: you're going to keep doubling down. in mexico, they could seek to renegotiate any renegotiation with nafta. how much does that lay into the actual economy? paul: i don't think a renegotiation of a renegotiation is a sensible thing to take positions on. it is the u.s. which is the driver. u.s. election is important. i don't think a renegotiation of a renegotiation is one of them. joe: brexit. [laughter] a car crashtill paired it's still a disaster. the market is beginning to break up. i've been fairly vocal on this, ,hat you tend to be binding
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clear competitiveness issues and , i suggestply shock the same rules apply to the u.k.. scarlet: so the u.k. is looking more like an e.m. asset? paul: that's a tiny bit harsh. politics have strong elements of e.m.. joe: i know there is talk and concern -- there are some thoughts that we could see another snap election, if you are looking at it to you think that -- how plausible is that? paul: i'm not an expert on british politics but the prime minister wen into the last election was 15 point polling and blew it. poll lead is to at the moment. i think it would be brave to take that risk now. scarlet: how mcnamara you will be moving to new york avenue have compared the u.k. to an emerging market. lisa: i pushed him to. paul: the weather's much better. lisa: thank you so much to paul
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mcnamara. mayng up, crypto craver have taken over much of the globe details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: what'd you miss? venezuela all of our has inflated more than 16,000% in the past year. bringing in foreign hard currency is a priority. you have just come back from caracas and talking to friends and people there, you notice people are very busy, those who
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have the skills in terms of mining cryptocurrencies. what is going on? >> without even asking people come i had heard that bitcoins was popular there because of the economic distortions. something they were drawing doing on the side for increased revenue. machine, andy by a have the programming and it just runs 24/7 and they are anywhere from six dollars a day to a grand a month, for middle-class families is going along way. key thing to making it work for making economical massive subsidies by the government for electricity. that is a key cost for running these mining spirit for that to change, that would then become arguably potentially not as attractive? >> yes.
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that, they could increase electricity places like one hundredfold and still be dirt cheap. something like pennies per month that people pay for electricity. there are a lot of power outages soap there are no surprises there. there are a lot of water problems in caracas as well. they do have a subsidy problem. if one did the government wants to fix part of their fiscal problems, it starts there. there is a question in a country where you have to stand on line to get basic goods that you need to live. that you might not be able to get when you get to the front of that line can anyone use that coin or other cryptocurrencies in order to rise some of the staples they need to live? >> so, a lot of the headlines last year were indeed the shortages. to regulate. it's hard to find regulated
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goods. the changes they have given up on some of the price policing. if you have money, you can find things. you have to pay dollar prices for it. income,ave any dollar you're doing ok. you are living pretty well. if you don't, you are really struggling. scarlet: for those mining for cryptocurrency, the minute they get some they are selling it right away so they can use it to pay for basic needs? >> what i heard if they are accumulating it in the wallet and trying to figure out -- they're not looking at the daily price moves of much as other something --be, even if it follows 10 or 20% in a week or month, you don't see people scrambling to worry about that. when you have an economy where inflation is 100% a month or where every day it is worth
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less, this is still a much better alternative here it. 100 i happen to have a lavar note in my wallet, i wasn't planning on bringing props, but i believe this is worth well less then a penny. i carried around. does the government have any official stance on cryptocurrency mining? is it legal, is it illegal? scarlet: regulated? >> is a bit of a great area. there have been cases of people being arrested or happened their equipment seized on unclear charges. the government got involved with their own game, which is off to a lackluster start spirit --. some of these machines are being used by the government. kind of the wild west.
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lisa: thank you so much. editor.g managing and of course joe editor. and of course joe weisenthal has his own bolivar. joe: just one in my wallet. it's time for the bloomberg business flash. directorinf managing says nations must comply with existing frameworks on trade instead of >> trade as a driver for growth around the world and has been. after 10 years of depressed growth and depressed traded is picking up and growing faster than global growth. it is an imperative not just for china, but for all countries that rely on trade for their growth. herbalife dropping today after its biggest porter and investors as he is selling a quarter of his take and the nutritional supplement maker.
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,e're talking about carl icahn who plans to sell more than 11 million shares and would remain biggest holder. his holding have become outsized. a new drug from astrazeneca has improved survival in one cancer patients. it has achieved its main goal and an a chance -- an advanced stage study. they are all raising to create life-saving therapies. collectinge image website jumped 58% last year. internal missed revenue goals for the first half of my 70 but smashed expectations in the second half. according to people familiar with the matter, they are on track to meet or exceed targets for the first half of this year. that is your business flash update. joe: coming up, when you need to
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know for the week ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: what'd you miss? for u.s. stocks with the nasdaq closing higher than the dow and s&p. coming up, don't miss this, on monday markets are those for memorial day. joe: and i will be watching the fed on wednesday. scarlet: don't miss this, the jobs report in the u.s. comes out on friday. joe is so excited. that does it for what'd you miss? joe: have a great weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪ what's a gig of data?
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emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco. hour, gdpin the next are are now being enforced in europe. tech companies had months to prepare, but are they ready? plus the trump administration has reached agreement that will allow cte to remain in business. its testex completes mission this year. meantime,

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