erik: coming up on "bloomberg best," the stories that shaped the week in business around the world. trade tensions, china and america's allies battle the trump administration's isolationist policies. another week of actions and reactions on global trade. >> i regard this as much like a family quarrel. erik: trade is issue number one as g7 leaders meet in quebec. president trump and shinzo abe hold a pregame huddle at the white house. president trump: to achieve a fair and mutually beneficial economic partnership. erik: howard schultz plans to leave starbucks, possibly for politics.

the athena health ceo jonathan bush is out. jeff immelt is in as executive chairman. elon musk and his board win a vote of confidence from tesla shareholders. >> it is a victory. it is not surprising given the base. erik: big money. big ideas. bloomberg speaks to figures in global investing. >> it is a sellers market. japan is not only growing in real terms, but there is a fundamental restructuring happening. >> we should start looking at china equities as sin stocks. erik: and the ubs ceo offers this advice during the recent market volatility. >> this is not an environment in which you put on more risk. erik: it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." erik: hello and welcome. i am erik schatzker. this is "bloomberg best," your

weekly review of the most important business news, analysis, and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. last weekend, officials from the u.s. and china met in beijing hoping to make headway on trade issues that of but the nations -- issues that have put the nations at odds. despite a cordial veneer, by monday, the two sides were playing the blame game again. emily: u.s. commerce secretary ross met with the chinese vice premier to discuss trade. while he said that talks were friendly, china is warning it will withdraw commitments if president trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on $50 billion worth of goods. >> is they have said from the beginning, the line has been from beijing they are willing to negotiate, want to buy more goods and shrink that trade deficit, but now this language suggesting if you go ahead with these tariffs, mr. trump has promised, all bets are off.

>> mexico saying they will begin to tax a range of u.s. products in retaliation for tariffs on mexican steel and aluminum. the president trump announced last week mexico will be slapped with tariffs of 25% on certain products, steel, tennessee 20% on pork, apples, and potatoes. >> there is a serious risk of a trade war. we have in office a protectionist president who clearly wants to put import restrictions on a wide range of products. the other countries will retaliate on a dollar for dollar basis. that will hit our own economy hard and could cause some serious risk to the economic outlook both in the u.s. and globally. mark: the crude diplomacy, the u.s. government is asking some opec members to increase oil production by a million barrels a day, this comes as gas

prices are at the highest level. >> the president said he would not tolerate high oil prices. this is the first sign he is following through, asking opec to raise output. we see airlines complaining about prices being high and hitting their profit. we have seen the indian oil minister complained to his saudi counterpart the price is too high. consumers are stepping in and the u.s. is the big guy in town, and president trump asking opec to raise output. that is hitting wti prices in the u.s. as well. >> the european central bank chief economist and senior board member has confirmed the ecb will debate an exit from qe at its june 14 meeting. >> in making its assessment, it is important to consider the underlying growth of the economy and to what extent, actually, this growth assessment, the assessment that we make, is

passing through to wages and price formation. >> is there anything in the central bank or politics space that could move the markets? for the moment, i don't know whether they have been complacent or cool. >> that is the surprise. we have the start of a trade war, which everybody thought would be a trigger for a market correction. we have currency volatility, so it is surprising the markets have not responded more than they have. the one explanation is that there is still a lot of liquidity around. it has not unwound in japan. we are talking about slowing down asset purchases in the ecb and the pace of fed hikes have been along market expectations, so that is probably why the markets are sanguine. >> this rally continues as momentum continues to drive stocks higher. this is the fourth straight session we have seen the s&p 500

and all major averages on the rise. the nasdaq is at a record. the russell 2000 is at a record again. are these highs justified? >> i think so. we have a terrific economy. there is the fear that when there are no clouds in the sky, that is the time to get cautious. couple of good things, besides reaching records, underperforming groups like media and retail are starting to participate. we like that. >> we had the big rally for tech. not so long ago we had fears about regulation. investors are not thinking that anymore. the nasdaq hitting all-time highs. >> we have the chart of the s&p 500 tech index going back two years. it is a clear uptrend. it looks like a textbook uptrend, above a rising 200 day moving average, above the 50 day moving average, and taking out and trading at all-time highs here.

>> just a weekend separates us from potential history being made, all looking ahead to the summit in singapore on june 12. ahead of that, we have this bilateral meeting between the japanese prime minister and president trump where they discussed wanting to sign an agreement with north korea on that tuesday meeting potentially to put a formal end to the korean war, saying they have talked about this, he thinks that will happen, but that will probably be the easy part. the hard work comes after that. a lot of pressure expected on the american president when it comes to trade and tariffs. he spoke about the trade relationship america wants to have with japan and its allies. president trump: you notice it is a bilateral deal with japan that is based on the principle of fairness and reciprocity. we are working hard to reduce our trade imbalance, which is very substantial. remove barriers to u.s. exports,

and to achieve a fair and mutually beneficial economic partnership. >> we are going to deal with the unfair trade practices. if you look at what canada, mexico, the european union, all of them have been doing to us for many decades, we have to change this, and they understand it is going to happen. >> what are we expecting? >> is there a negative bar? that is what we will be expecting. they will not get anything out of this, except the other six members will vent at donald trump, and it looks like he will vent at them, even though he is speaking from a position of ignorance on trade. he has been very active on twitter throwing out accusations of unfair trading practices against the g7 members, saying they have been taking advantage of us, the countries with which we have these trade deals, except he forgets we don't have trade deals with most of the g7, only canada.

erik: still ahead as we review the week on "bloomberg best," the ubs ceo comments on troubles at one of his top competitors, deutsche bank. plus, conversations with key decision-makers and private equity, asset management, and corporate america at the bloomberg invest summit. next, more headlines. tesla investors back its board and elon musk. bycompanies is held shareholders who own a large stake and they tend to believe in elon. it is not a surprise that he won. erik: this is bloomberg. ♪

erik: you are watching "bloomberg best." i am erik schatzker. let's return to our week's top business stories. with microsoft shelling out billions for a company that is a top destination for millions of

software developers. >> microsoft has agreed to acquire github. a code repository popular with many developers. what is the logic behind the deal? >> its most profitable business is its cloud business. it is branded as azure. what a lot of companies do when they work in open source software, google has a coding language which it uses for special intelligence. it is a way of on boarding them. >> microsoft has always been a developer-first company. that is how we got started, and now we are all in on open source. with that coming together, it makes a lot of sense. we can contribute a lot and stay true to the original ethos of github. that is how we will operate github going forward, which is developer first.

>> starbucks says howard schultz, the founder of the coffee chain, is stepping down as executive chairman and they have named the next chairman. melody hobson has been named as the vice chair of starbucks. howard schultz stepped down as ceo last april, leaving that role to kevin johnson. this is howard schultz cutting his ties. >> he is a 64-year-old, a titan in the industry. he took starbucks from 11 stores to 28,000. starbucks has been under pressure in terms of sales and socially. it recently closed 8000 stores just to have sensitivity training. >> athena health ceo jonathan bush is stepping down after facing allegations of misconduct involving women. this clears the way for a potential sale of the $6.3 billion company. elliott management proposed buying athena health early last month.

elliott has made a bid for the company. do you think that makes the most sense, or do you think a strategic buyer comes in here? >> i think $160 is the downside on the stock. i think it makes a lot of sense for a strategic buyer to come in. athena health is an asset that is really unique in the health care it world. their software application is in front of doctors' eyeballs in 100,000 offices around the country, ground zero of where health care decisions are being made. the likely buyers would the big tech companies. i think athena is a software company, and the likely buyers would be software companies. >> another day, another round of outrage at facebook's handling of user data. this time it is not about a consulting firm with ties to president trump or apple, this time it is four chinese consumer

device makers. huawei was barred from having its products sold to the pentagon and armed forces. once again, facebook is having to answer concerns it is failing to be transparent in how its user data is handled by third parties. how much fuel does this add to the fire? >> it adds a lot of fuel to the fire. i want to be clear that huawei and facebook have both said no data was stored on huawei's servers. the problem with that statement is we don't trust facebook anymore. lawmakers are not really taking that as a clear response to this concern. they want to know why zuckerberg did not mention this when he had 10 hours of congressional testimony and he was talking about third-party relationships, why not bring up these relationships too?

so there are a lot of angry people on the hill today about facebook. >> more about tesla, investors have backed its besieged board. they approved the reelection of three directors. shareholders sided with the board's recommendations on all agenda items, including keeping elon musk as ceo and chairman. it seems like shareholders overcoming what critics have said about tesla having failed to reach production targets. elon musk's combative earnings call on this as well. how big of a victory is this? >> it is a big victory. it is not surprising given the shareholder base. the pension funds are small and the power of the company is really a held by the shareholders who own a large stake, and they believe in elon. it is not a surprise he won. we will not know what the vote was until the ak is filed in a few days, but all three directors were reelected and

musk stays on as ceo and chairman. >> we have been watching this story on verizon, new leadership. he is the former ceo of ericsson. and he takes that top job in august. was this a surprise for you? is this the right direction for verizon to go? >> yes and yes. >> ok. >> it was a big surprise. hans has not been with verizon for long. people may remember him as the ceo of ericsson. he was there about six years. he did a great job. he is a great visionary. he is big on 5g. his belief and mine too is that it will transform the industry. it helped to shape him as a good choice for the role, but the timing and actual news is a big surprise to many.

>> there was the view that one would not stay around forever and so does this mean anything internally about verizon and other potential successors who might not stick around in the wake of this? >> it is possible. hans is an enthusiastic guy. that enthusiasm is infectious. he is a very likable guy. i can see him smoothing the waters. >> interesting. >> and communicating the vision well. what i always look for in the ceo is i want to see someone who is going to manage to a well-defined vision. i think he is good at that. i think people respond to that. >> apple's supply chain is roiling investors. a report released today said the tech giant warned suppliers of a drop of 20% in iphone component orders, but could all this just be noise? >> what a good question.

as soon as i saw that report by nikkei, i thought is this anything new? we have seen this before. >> it happens every now and then. reporting on apple is so competitive around the globe. not just apple, but all suppliers in asia and elsewhere. every now and then you will get this type of story saying some supplier saying they are reducing orders to us, that sort of thing, but it is a complicated supply chain. the bloomberg story does a great job of explaining this. sometimes they shipped to other suppliers because of constraints or whatnot. >> at the end of the day you look at apple and the big story of the year is this $100 billion buyback. that may not be a panacea for fundamentals, but it indicates there will be a big buyer of the stock all year. any reports like this, you have to take that into account. >> deutsche bank said it will probably report another quarter

of declining revenue as it scales back investment banking operations and cuts jobs. the german lender is accelerating its focus on europe, having announced plans to slash 7000 positions. >> we are learning through exclusive reporting that the chairman of deutsche bank has floated the idea of a merger with commerzbank. we are now hearing that the deutsche bank chair is set to talk to holders on the deal. we know the two german firms have discussed merger two years ago. that was aborted, but this could generate cost savings and produce a lender that poses less systemic risks to the financial system. we are getting news right now that the chairman of deutsche bank has floated the idea of a merger with commerzbank to the board. let us bring in bloomberg's stephen arons in frankfurt. we know that they had this conversation before. why do we think commerzbank

would want to do this again? >> well, i think both banks know they need scale in the notoriously over-banked german market. a merger would benefit both. they are looking for a way to cut costs, so synergies would be a good way. it is also clear that both banks think they are not ready for any such merger just yet. they are both in turnaround plans. they will have to go through most of those before it becomes an option. this shows it is an idea on people's minds and that people like to talk about, so the thought is there. ♪

erik: welcome back to "bloomberg best." i am erik schatzker. the head of switzerland's largest bank says, hang in there. the ubs ceo told manus cranny that investors should stay in the market despite the volatility. he sat down with an exclusive interview in zurich, switzerland. >> volatility has spiked on bonds, but if you go back into the levels of the vix in general, fx movements, yes, some movement, but not a lot of

volatility compared to the standards we are used. i would say overall investors are very cautious. they are out there observing the situation. they are not panicking. they are starting to get concerned. manus: was there any reduction of risk? did you take any risk off the table? >> i think we have been focused on managing our risk for a while. this is clearly not an environment in which you put on more risk. manus: what about italy? did you have any exposure to italy? >> no. our exposure in terms of countries is well within our risk appetite. i am comfortable that there is no substantial short-term risk posed to europe or any countries in europe. manus: one thing i focused on last week was sovereign risk and banks, alive and well. it had not gone away.

>> at the end of the day, banks are a transmission mechanism for the economies and if the underlying economy, political landscape, is unstable, banks are suffering, so it is quite normal. having said that, i do think banks in europe in general are in better shape than they were 10 years ago. i am convinced that they will -- the system will be able to absorb any shock related to any bank. the problem will be what are the rest of the shocks outside the banking sector? i don't think it is a shock to the system. it is about public finances, the underlying economy, and the structure that needs to be implemented to create a better environment. manus: when you took over this bank in 2012, is deutsche bank at a worse position than when

you arrived full-time here? >> it is difficult to make a comparison. back then, what we did is we focused on our strengths and shaped our balance sheet, and i think deutsche bank is going through a similar exercise, and it is the right thing to do at this stage. it is difficult to make a parallel also because we have quite different business models. manus: one of the things the market is looking at -- as the ceo of a major bank, i want to hear from you how should the market be focusing on deutsche bank? is it about counterparty risks? if counterparty risk is taken away, that is the beginning of crises. >> i don't think there is any counterparty risk per se. i think it is difficult for me to make judgment about another

bank at this stage, but i don't believe there is any counterparty risk in the system at this stage that is meaningful. erik: coming up right here on "bloomberg best," more of the compelling conversations from the bloomberg conference in new york. >> we have a lot of good data we are able to feed into a model where we think the world is going. for example, we have been able to back test that and test when we expect to have a recession in the united states. >> and that is? erik: this is bloomberg. ♪

erik: this is "bloomberg best." i am erik schatzker. we heard from key investors and asset management and corporate america in our new york headquarters at the bloomberg

invest summit. let's begin with our own jason kelly. he set down with blackstone's global head of equity. jason: how expensive is the world right now? >> it is historically expensive. we are subject to that. we have to navigate within that. fortunately, we are only making 12 investments a year out of our global buyout fund across five key geographic regions -- u.s., europe, india, china, australia and japan. we have 140 people trying to source transactions. i think we are able to find those 10 or 12 interesting, idiosyncratic situations. there is not a single industry or country where we say the wind is in our sales, environments can only improve. on mostwe have headwind

of the key industries we look at with the exception of energy about 18 months ago. that has come running back and in most of the geographic regions we invest in. jason when you think about the : possibility of a recession globally and in the u.s., how worried are you and what is the timeline? joseph: looking at our 90 portfolio companies and the data we get monthly from them, i would say the economy globally is in good health. i do not see any signs of that abating anytime soon. that means in the next quarter of a year the expectations of . our ceos is for continued strong growth. the industrial rebound in the united states since 2015 -- the industrial economy in the u.s. did not rebound much until 2015. jason: right.

joseph: we now have businesses that are growing their top line of 8% to 10%. we are gdp trend in u.s. industrials. also particularly german industrials. consumer businesses are more on trend. 3% or 4% real growth, 5% to 6% nominal growth. i do not see that changing anytime soon. i think the risk to this vintage is less when a recession comes, because it will. i do not think it will be anywhere near the severity as the 2009, 2010 recession. i think global cost capital is ratherto increase significantly, which will affect credit spreads and the 30 year treasury rate, which has already moved up, pe multiples. that will be the rest. people bought assets assuming they can sell at the historically high multiples they paid and that will not necessarily come to fruition. >> it is a sellers market.

we are late cycle in the u.s. in particular and if you look at our activity on the private equity side, we have been net sellers, especially in the u.s. >> you have different avenues you can pursue within kkr to understand global economics and maybe just as important mobile politics. this gives you the macro economic and microeconomic perspective, as well as david petraeus, who can give you as good a read as anyone on hotspots around the world. what are you hearing from them as all of us read headlines every day about what is going on in the world? how is it affecting how you deploy capital? >> in terms of what henry's group does, it helps us make sure we are reading the signal we are getting. we have a large portfolio.

before henry and the team got there, we did an ok job reading the data but we do a much better , job out translating the information we get out of our portfolio companies with metrics to where the world is going. >> what insight have you had from him of late? >> one of the theme things have built as the gbg -- gdp redactors. -- predictors. back testing has been quite accurate because we have a lot of good data we have been able to feed into a model that tells us where we think the world is going. we have been able to back test that contest against when we expect a recession to happen in the united states? >> and that is? >> sometime in the next 24 months. the reading is that we will see something. our expectation is more of a modest pullback than what we saw. maybe more of a 2001 feel as opposed to the financial crisis. it does tell us things like that as to when we expect we will see a bit of a debt in the u.s.

economy and we are able to use that around the world. >> where are the real pockets of investable opportunity at this point as you look around the world? let's start with europe. it has been in the headlines a lock on the -- lot, whether it is italy or whatever. how does europe feel right now? >> europe feels good. the european economy continues to perform well. there are pockets of news between brexit and italy and maybe greece every quarter. the net takeaway in europe is you have a european economy that is being driven by exports and consumption. that results in a much stronger european economy then we have seen in a long time. we think europe is 40 years -- four years behind the united states in its recovery. companies in europe did not compress their cost structures.

as revenues recover, margins expand faster. we see europe to be steady and stable and growing. that tends to lend itself to a good private equity environment, a good real estate environment, a good energy environment a good , infrastructure environment, and a good credit environment. that is where we are spending our time. >> next to europe and the u.s., what is the most exciting place to you? >> you cannot ignore the far east. what we are seeing in china, 6.5% growth despite the financial deleveraging that has occurred and the tremendous growth in the consumer sector that is happening there. the opportunities in technology and health care cannot be ignored. i think you will see real opportunity there. believe it or not, japan is not only growing in real terms, but there is a fundamental

restructuring happening, not only with large corporations needing to spin off, but also privately owned firms that need to transition to the next form of ownership. we are seeing tremendous opportunity in japan as well. >> we talked about this in a big way in september. at the time bitcoin was in the , 4000 neighborhood. he predicted that crypto was going to be the biggest bubble of our lifetimes. was that the december bubble or is that bubble yet to happen? >> that was 1996 internet, not 1999. let me give you some metrics. the total market cap in january if you added coins and private companies and everything else

was probably $1.2 trillion. take the fact that this is a global revolution. in a internet bubble, it was only a u.s. rich u.s. people thing participating. , upper-middle-class. this is global. there are kids in bangladesh buying coins. ands monstrous in tokyo korea and china and india and in russia. we have a global market -- global mania. once the institutions coming, that $1.5 trillion will look small. this will feel like a bubble at $20 trillion. and it will go there. >> frauds are not unique to china. why is there this bigger point? that is what you are making. there is a bigger point to be made about china's impact on the american capital market and the capitalist system if you want to extend it more? >> i would argue that we should

start looking at, as western investors, at china equities as -- stocks. from a governance perspective, it is something where allocators should be asking themselves whether it is something they should own. it goes beyond fraud. let's be clear. only one leg of the issues is this idea that chinese actors can list companies in the u.s. that are frauds and do it with total impunity. that is one leg. another leg is we are financing -- at the end of the day -- i would argue this is a fact -- at the end of the day in china, there is no such thing as a purely private company. the private companies will do the bidding of the state when they are required to do so. we are at this strange moment in history where as liberal

democracies, we are struggling to adjust to this devolution of the technological edge from the government sector to the private sector. our best technologies are strategic technology in the hands of private companies in the u.s. who are open to doing business with these companies from china that you do not know whether they are acting in their own interests or the interests of the government. ♪

erik: welcome back to "bloomberg best." i'm erik schatzker. let's resume our be -- review of the week's most important business stories. tighter monetary policy from the federal reserve and the ecb has caused concern and triggered volatility in emerging markets. let's begin with the new governor of indonesia's central bank who defends hiking rates twice in two weeks. he spoke to us in jakarta for his first international interview since taking office. >> one of the key lessons -- you have to preempt uncertainty. this is the first thing we did. to preempt the possibility of the impact of fiscal -- these

are the things we did. preempting uncertainty. >> you talk about preempting. is there a need for another rate hike? we have heard from goldman sachs saying you probably need one. will continue look at the economics globally and to look at the measure.rate and the

yes, there's a possibility of a rate hike. the magnitude and timing will be measured and will depend upon britain in the coming meeting. >> you talked about being ahead of the curve. what assumptions are you making about the fed next week and how closely will your own policy decisions be linked? >> our domestic economy is strong. there is no reason to respond to the policy. this year is 3.6% within our target. later on this year we will be below 2.5%. there is no reason on the economy when things will be lower. >> you talked about wanting the

currency to be stronger. what is fair value? >> the fair value is dynamic and will depend on this fundamental indicator. it matters on the portfolios and the risk premium. [indiscernible] it was quite high at a time. the capital of flows -- it is strengthening again. we are seeing the development of inflows again. [indiscernible] the development

of the economy for the future. >> how deep is the pocket? how much can you intervene. >> we will stand ready if there is pressure in the market. let what we saw in early february. -- like what we saw in early february. this has become normal. the markets are in the process of adjustment. this is when we need to step in, to ensure the adjustment is small. >> urging the fed to ease the pace at which -- is is withdrawn. we sought indonesia being the heart of the emerging market and it prompted him to raise rates for the second time in two weeks. funding -- >> it is a condition.

>> when we do our analysis of how much debt indonesian corporate's have, the numbers are extraordinary high. 25% of the stock of reserves. that's what the market is looking at. across the emerging-market universe, which are the countries that have large dollar funding needs at a time that dollar would be at a premium. >> u.k. now seeing em currencies -- saying em currencies are a bright spot. and that they were outperform. do you still stand by that call? >> yes, we do. in aggregate, we believe emerging-market currencies are a attractively -- are attractively valued. we had a significant drawdown from 2012 to 2015. we have had a bounce since then. that was 22016 and 17, and now we are correcting that bounce, in our view. with in em currencies we think , somewhere in the region of 15% to 20% undervalued in aggregate.

within that, there are significant dispersion and we would suggest there are some countries and currencies that are less attractive. it would not surprise you to hear that by various metrics you get countries like in brazil and south africa and in some instances turkey. fiscal positions have improved, internal balances have improved since the taper tantrum. the external balances have improved significantly. all of that in aggregate. within that, there are indeed pockets. as u.s. rates rise we have to remind ourselves that the growth driven rise in u.s. rates is typically very positive for em currencies. they appreciate during those periods and e.m. markets outperform e.m. during that -- dm during that period of growth driven rate rises. we think the bank drop over the over the next 12 to 18 or even 36 months remains very positive.

valuations are attractive. internal and external balances have improved. global growth is picking up. the em growth premium is widening. that environment is attractive. >> 17.75. that is a 125 basis point rate hike for the turkish central bank. we want to take a look at the immediate reaction, it is a stronger lira. in the intraday you can see that dropping like a stone for the dollar as the turkish lira balance is higher. the question going forward for the rest of the session is will this be enough? well this last? we have seen central banks hike rates, but then at the same time it does not sustain. >> especially true in turkey. as david pointed out, how erdogan reacts to this will be

key to the market being able to sustain this lira bounce. a week ago in a campaign speech, he sounded like he believes in the independence of the central bank. >> it is not just turkey we are dealing with. we saw argentina and turkey and brazil. take a look at what is happened . four is what we are looking at for the real. is there a broader story in em? >> across e.m. there are a number of countries saying to the fed, we need more communication about where you are going. this week, indonesian and indian central bankers said think of us when you are moving forward because it is affecting our currencies. we have seen argentina, mexico, brazil, all of those currencies take a hit. >> you have this backdrop of the central banks around the world taking the punch bowl away.

a lot of people looking to see how this will impact on some of the weaker emerging markets. what we saw a few weeks ago in argentina played out again in turkey. we saw the big selloff in the real in brazil and now we are seeing the same kind of phenomenon kicking in in south africa. this is about the fed and the possibility of the ecb next week will announce the first stages of the steps to removing stimulus. ♪

>> the president keeps coming back about drug prices. how is that affecting the industry? >> that is absolutely right. we had another tweet from the president this morning, amongst the number of tweets, in which he talks about less expensive

health care plans coming out later this month. if you take a look at my bloomberg terminal, the nasdaq biotech index is down today by .8%. it is being pulled down by drug companies that did not have the positive news to share this past weekend. >> there are about 30,000 functions on the bloomberg, and we always enjoy showing you our favorites on bloomberg television. maybe they will become your favorites, too. here's another function you will find useful, quic go. it will take you to quick takes, where you can get important context and fast insight into timely topics. here's a quick take from this week. >> after decades of limiting families to one child, china has a new message -- please have another baby. why the change of heart? in short, china is aging, and and losing its working population.

although china changed the rules in 2016 to allow couples to have as many as two children, it has not convinced many parents to have more than one. costs long work hours and , surging childcare expenses mean many couples feel they can only afford to have one, or even none. on top of that, a study found that 33% of women had their pay cut after giving birth, and 36% were demoted. >> if they want to reverse the demographic trends they are facing, they will not only have to deal with the cost of having a child, but will also be fighting against demographic and social trends in which people are having fewer children. >> to counter the trend, the government is considering lifting limits on the number of children a family can have, otherwise by 2040, one quarter of the world's most populous country will be 65 or older. this threatens an economic boom built on a vast labor supply.

>> countries don't usually become great powers when they are old and gray. they become great powers when they are young and vigorous. if xi jingping wants to complete that transition, and he may need to build a younger country that can pull it off. >> how did we get here? after the creation of the people's republic of china in 1949, the government trained tens of thousands of "barefoot doctors" to bring health care to poor and rural areas. the result, mortality rates plummeted, and growth rates skyrocketed. by the 1970's, china was facing food and housing shortages. in 1979, its leader, deng xiaoping, decided to limit most couples to just one child, and it worked. the average birth per woman dropped to less than two. however there was a social , consequence of this. the traditional preference among chinese parents for sons caused many parents to abort female fetuses. the imbalance grew to 120 men to one woman.

-- every 100 women. time, women became very picky about possible husbands. some rural men began to buy wives from human traffickers. in early 2018, authorities rescued 17 vietnamese women and arrested a gang of 0 traffickers who had been selling women in china. the change was meant to fix the nation's demographic problems, but after an initial spike in the birth rate in 2016, the 2017 numbers didn't appear as large. >> indications are that people won't be rushing out to have kids. they might see a temporary bump in the number of children, but whether it will be a lasting change that will affect the china's demographic trajectory is in doubt. erik: that was just one of the many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them at bloomberg.com, along with all the latest business news and analysis 24 hours a day. that will be all for "bloomberg best" this week.

thanks for watching. i'm erik schatzker this is bloomberg. ♪

david: when you told people you were going to raise a $100 billion fund, did they tell you you were a little crazy? masayoshi: some people said. [laughter] david: did you suffer discrimination growing up in japan? masayoshi: that made me stronger. david: how did you feel losing $70 billion of net worth? masayoshi: i was so close to, you know, fall down from the cliff. we almost went bankrupt. somehow, i survived. >> would you fix your tie, please? david: well, people would not recognize me if my tie was fixed, but ok. just leave it this way. all right. ♪ david: i'