haidi:n th brink, a global trade war looms. china targeting america's economic heartland in response to the trump terrorists. -- terrorists -- ramy: the president says he is ready to escalate the fight. haidi: opec in vienna this week with a rebellion against saudi and russian plans to pump more oil. ramy: easy money is not dead yet. why central banks are not quite ready to get out of the

accommodation business. haidi: hello from sydney where it is past 8:00 a.m. we are two hours away from the open here at asia's first major market. best 6:00 best 6:00 and p.m. in new york. we will be looking at the action on wall street playing into the asia-pacific trading day. the big news that happened over the past weekend was china pulling the trigger on tariffsion from trump's 0 billion. the number is $34 billion on 500 categories. a lot of them inuding agricultural products but also automobiles. there is a second round that could include commodities as medical equipment. we saw this impact on the markets friday and we are looking to see how that percolates into the asia-pacific trading day. haidi: it could be a kind of with saw session.

some positivity for companies like coal exporters that could gain from the kind of hole that is being left by the u.s. suppliers. it is very interesting, acting within hours of the list coming through, but certainly very much aiming to hit at the heartland support base, the commodity states that voted for trump in the first place. they will be hardest hit. take a look at how we ended the week. that is going to dictate how we start trading in asia. board to's show the remind viewers where we ended. by far,ed, not a rout but the dow is down. the s&p now down .1, but the biggest loser was energy because that was down 2%. aside from the trade war seem, we have to talk -- theme, we have to talk about oil. opec is meeting in vienna.

oil was moving on friday. we were not sure if there would be a deal or not. iran, iraq ando venezuela, they will not say if they don't want anymore production to come online. we will see what happens. haidi: they could be quite a messy opec meeting as we get into that, the end of this week. some think decisions, bank of england, the fed speak in general. will be watching out for commentary as we get mario drag hi, governor kuroda and others. take a look at how we are setting up into the asian open. you have kiwi stocks a little bit lower, the kiwi dollar at 69.38. the u.s. dollar is mixed against the g10 peers. futures flat here. still under the $.75 level as we get a roll across commodities.

gold seeing a bit up, .25%, and crude trading lower getting i that contentious opec meeting in vienna. looking at the agricultural index, everything from soybeans to copper to call getting -- coal getting impacted by these new trade tariffs first us from washington that retaliatory lists from beijing. now first word news with haslinda amin. haslinda: iran says venezuela and iraq will join it in blocking the saudi-russian led proposal to increase oil oduction with opec and its allies meeting in vienna. has succeededpact in balancing oil markets and lifting crude prices and the biggest producers want a relaxation as soon as next month. russia said opec and its allies may consider 1.5 million barrels a day.

largestmains the foreign owner of treasuries in april, even with a slight drop in holdings. the start policy as bond builds and increased by $5.8 billion to $1.1 trillion. the appetite for u.s. debt shows few signs of waning. drop saw its treasuries $12.3 billion. the colombians have elected a president. the 41-year-old ran on a market friendly campaign of cutting taxes on company profits to help the economy. he claimed 54% of votes and will take office in august with the country at its most peaceful of decades. we are seeing more big shocks for the top nations at the fifa world cup. brazil have failed to win their

opening match for the first time in 40 years. 1-0 by switzerland. rescue --y off to a rocky start. side'sch called his performance haphazard and negligence. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am haslinda amin. this is bloomberg. ♪ ramy: thank you. the global economy is on the verge of a trade war with china quickly would to president trump's announcement of tariffs on $50 billion worth of chinese imports. our correspondent joins us from beijing with more. walk us through which sectors that china targeted. china was very clear saying they would hit back and they did hit back indeed. they are targeting in the first round of tariffs, initiated july

6 if they don't come to some agreement before that, $34 billion worth of imports from the u.s., including as you said soybeans, corn, wheat. agricultural products and automobiles as well. as -- and taken steps to open the auto market, so reversing those now. after july 6 they are thinking of the additional $16 billion worth of tariffs on a range of goods from coal to oil, medical equipment. statesng the midwestern has commodity producing states, the game plan from china, hoping to cause pain in areas that voted for trump and seeing if that will lead to any change in policy from the trump administration. billion -- 554 different categories. versus about 1000 from the u.s.

side. ed all of the anull agreements it came to, three rounds of talks led by steve mnuchin and commerce secretary ross in beijing and washinon. all of those agreement increasing imports like agricultural products and commodities, oil and gas. all of those have been put on ice or stopped completely. that is where we stand. now we look at what the u.s. reaction will be from this. what is our best guess at how this will play out? tom: it is not looking pretty. trump has said he has drawn up a list of $100 billion in additional tariffs if china retaliates. he has -- china has, now we wait and see. it is hard for china to match the $100 billion because it does not import more than that.

unfos that way, they willit start to put pressure on u.s. corporates operating in china. this is a game plan they have drawn out and put to use already with countries like south korea. unofficial, licensing, health inspections or quality inspections that delay and make the jobs of those corporates very difficult. that could be the responsive trump goes ahead with the $100 billion. haidi: stay with us. we want to bring in our guest host this hour. jason schenker, ranked by bloomberg as among the most accurate financial forecasters and future. he has a new book coming out. midterm elections on financial markets and the economy. jason, great to have here. before we get to the impact, the impact of the tariffs very

surgically directed at hurting trump supporter base. how must of this hurt the president and his face going into the midterm -- base going into the midterm? jason: looking at the tariffs, this is inevitable going back to the u.s. tr report on march 22. this was something coming in the pipeline. it doesurt trump's base of supporters, but if we look at potential impacts on the midterm elections, it could have more impact on the house, less on the senate were out of 35 seats up for election, nine are held by republicans. 26 are democrats already. bethe biggest change will the senate, but that is unlikely to happen. for the house, it could hurt trump supporters. haidi: we are seeing the political backlash from the president being perceived to

taking the pressure off of zte. is that giving us any indication the political benefit of trump taking a moderate approach to china is not that substantial for him? jason: i think as we see how this goes back and forth, the tough stance of tariffs, this type of negotiation, is an attempt to get the u.s. a more favorable trade situation. but these things take on a life of tir own as we are seeing now. tit for tat with the tariffs. i don't think we will see a change in these trade policies and regardless of how the midterm elections come out, these policies will continue like through the entire administration because the president has a great deal of authority regarding tariffs and doesn't need to consult the legislature at all making these policies. ramy: let's have a let's be real

moment. 34 alien dollars, not much when it comes to the overall -- $34 billion not much when it comes to the overall trade outlook. how significant is it? jason: if we think about the fact that where the u.s. trade itterms of exports to china, would not be possible to add tariffs on $100 billion beyond the $34 billion because we don't export that much to china. in terms of import it is less than $500 billion, but that is quite a bit. we could put more. it adds inflation to the mix, it adds uncertainty. that is something companies are worried about. the tariffs on steel and aluminum could inadvertently hurt u.s. manufacturers that by steel and aluminum to manufacture products in the u.s.

you have a few different angles to come at this that post cap -- pose challenges to businesses, corporations and the rise with labor costs and higher interest rates, inflationary pressures and tariffs call for corporate profits. ramy: in our reporting across bloomberg news, it seems beijing and the leadership is trying to have this tone of measured patients, but what is your take? concurs with the sources we talked to in beijing, that they will match trump punch for punch. they don't want to accelerate trade tensions unnecessarily. they want to take a measured approach. you are hearing a stronger tone in the state media lashing out. in terms of how this unfolds, action by action, they match the u.s. but they don't take it to

another level. that seems to be something we are hearing from our sources on the ground. i wondered what you thought in terms of who had the stomach to continue this fight and to weather the storm, the u.s. versus china. there is a sense in china they can suck up the pain. jason: china has the stronger case. they have the stronger ability to hold out longer. if we look at per capita gdp numbers in the united states, it is over 58,000 and in china it is over $8,000. if we look at comparison, if china takes the long-term approach that how they are going to address these issues, if they give on tariffs now as a country with relatively low per capita gdp, that is going to hurt their long-term growth path and long-term per capita gdp growth, and the u.s. is so much higher

that if they make that sacrifice now, that could have a long-term detrimental outlook. they are willing to take short-term pain because of the long-term outlook whereas in the u.s., election cycles, the business cycle, it will be more directly critical for those decisions. in the u.s. we have less of a stomach and the chinese may be taking a long game approach. given gdp differences, they might be willing to hold out longer. the u.s. be targeting the made in china policy and if tariffs are not the right way, how should they be approaching it? jason: i would not necessarily say should or should not. tariffs are problematic because they are like cockroaches. there is never just one. they proliferate and they had cost into the system -- add cost

into the system. there could be other ways to improve the trade balance rather than going through tariffs, but the real trick is if we are forced to kind of stick with strongrade -- take a stance and hold by them, we have to be prepared for the economic consequences of a little bit more inflation and less growth. jason, stay with us. we will let tom go. jason schenker of prestige economics will be sticking around. plenty more to talk about as we kick off this brand-new trading week. beijing's bid for global influence reaching the pacific islands. why the u.s. and australia are showing concern. ramy: some global central banks are taking steps towards unwinding their stimulus programs. we will look at why it may not be the end of easy money. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: the week ahead on wall street will bring us more earnings and economic data, plenty of headline risk for oil traders in particular. will there be a clash or agreement with opec meters in vienna? su keenan has more. su: it could be a bumpy ride, and we saw stocks decline. when you have the options, futures expire once a quarter. there is your snapshot. the big focus, we are seeing bonds jump as demand recedes. what is the risk factor into this week is the big question. let's go to earnings because those are front center. federal express on the 19th. reuters is calling u.s. tariffs on china goods counterproductive. $.94 a share on $11 billion is expected and revenue, but my. on the 22nd.

once a star in mobile devices, some say this is a hidden gem with a bullish outlook. macron by goldman sachs going to go high. this will be closely watched for memory chip makers. bitcoin was last week pretty bad, but this week is a question. the bank of international settlements is warning that bitcoin could break the internet. they talk about design flaws in the crypto. let's go to oil. this will be in big focus with opec up and coming. more on that later in the show. it will be a rough ride is what traders are saying, headline risk. to banks, we have the fed stress test out later this week. lots of excess cash. the questions are who are the banks that might be on that watchlist? and the eco-data, we don't focus on housing. we have housing construction,

existing home sales down in april. that will rebound and come back. housing starts will continue strong. stronger ports underscore this part of the economy is -- strong reports underscore this part of the economy is doing well. ramy: thank you very much. still with us is prestige economics president jason schenker. just released his book midterm economics, the impact of financial markets and the economy. toore we continue on, i want get our viewers into the conversation we had in the break. you had said china was the holdout for longer, they had more patience. i thought that would hurt trump's base, but you said ot jason: there is a chancee think about what is the impact on hurting the economy's of the mies of- the econo these states, or will fit will

detract from the voter base, it could detract -- they could strengthen their resolve if they feel they are targeted. you could see china explicitly targeting them. they are -- ramy: backs against the wall. if a target us, we will pay back as best we can. day ifat the end of the the economy slows, and unemployment rate turns, we will probably the far more likely to reverse our stance on trade that china would. ramy: on the economy you talked about unemployment, 3.8%. we are expecting 3.5% or so, eisenhower numbers. looking at what the fed is doing now, what is your top take with expectation now leaning towards to hikes? jason: i am erned for trade next year. i am forecasting four this year since last year and i am expecting none next year because higher interest rates.

housing, autos, and the trade mix comes into the picture. there is a risk that could dampen the growth outlook two or the fed might need to pause. they are reducing their balance sheet, so that party has not stopped. they are still doing that. that might mean they need to pause at the end of this year. haidi: it is not just the uncertainty that adds to the u.s. outlook. you have everyone essentially other than australia and the bank of japan moving to tighten. does this give pause to most central-bank policy makers? war comes to a time when we are seeing a stening of economic indicators? jason: that is right. we have heard the imf talk about it numerous times. there is a reason friday that commodities almost across the .oard took a hit

it was not just oil. it was aluminum, copper, gold prices. natural gas is the exception because of inventory situation. a lot of commodities took a hit. if we look at the imf growth numbers, the reason they are expecting 3.9% as the growth rate this year and next year is because of the second half of 2017. global trade surged, and that supported growth. that was critical. it means if trade comes into question, it could be bad for the global economy and this week could overshadow someing like opec because oil prices are under pressure. jason, stick around with us. guest host for the entire hour. pristiq economic, who will continue this talk. past interviews on the interactive tv function. you can dive into any of the

securities on the bloomberg we talk about. this is for subscribers only. check it out at tv go. this is bloomberg. ♪

ramy: a quick check obusiness flash headlines. china's top leaders have agreed to help hna group raise funds. this follows a meeting with pboc officials, regulators, the government and the company's biggest creditor. haidi: chinese state media site and electric vehicle maker is recalling 6000 cars to replace faulty takata airbags. the recall covers 10,000 models may between 2014 and 2017. last month u.s. transport safety millions and 42% of 20 airbags had not been replaced by the end of last year. ramy: japanese online market place is the first start of

theed over $1 billion but successful push into the u.s. would make it a unicorn. this is bloomberg. ♪ it raised a lot next week -- ised a lot next week --

haidi: it is 8:30 in sydney monday morning. markets opening this week in 90 minutes time. futures looking flat. is mixed.e aussie digesting the potential trade war between the u.s. and china being back on. gloomy day in sydney. i am haidi lun. ramy: i am ramy inocencio where it is fast 6:30. -- past 6:30. first word news with haslinda amin. economy ishe global on the verge of a trade war after china counteracts on trump's tariffs. each nation has a detaedist

of products to be hit with tariffs from july 6. beijing is targeting commodity producers of the american heartland after the u.s. focus levees to curb china's industrial block. is arump: president xi great man. wonderful guy, but at some point we have to straighten it up your we lost $500 billion in trade deficit last year. we cannot do that. haslinda: chinese state media have accushe trump administration of disgraceful behavior in starting a trade war. the people's daily said the u.s. has damaged businesses and the global economic order. state television is taking a similar line. >> what upsets us is america doesn't care at all about prior consensus and changes their mind. china doesn't want to fight a trade war but has to retaliate against america's selfish,

shortsighted behavior and protect our country and chinese interests and globalization and the multilateral world trade order. australia will begin negotiations with the european union on a free-trade agreement and what would be a big deal. the trade minister told bloomberg that talks start next month. australia seeking better access for agricultural products. he said exports of beef, lamb, sugar and rice are significantly strained by you -- e.u. carriers. blasting cryptocurrencies, saying they may never become part of mainstream finance. at the annual economic report, the b.i. as said bitcoin and its siblings are too unstable him a consume too much electricity and suffer too much fraud to be good for the exchange. they could break the internet because blockchain requires too much processing power.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am haslinda amin. this is bloomberg. thank you so much. let's get you a quick update. the early part of the trading session, getting action underway. a bit of a downside for kiwi stocks, the dollar 69.35, the u.s. dollar mixed because of the g10 space. -- over the g10 space. the aussie dollar sitting dollar.th $.75 per u.s. you can see broadly the risk off sentiment. you could see a movie and dollar-yen, sitting at 110 at the moment. sterling, another key situation when it comes to the brexit legislation. that piece is taken up for a vote this week.

the lewis -- u.s. 10 year yield at 2.92. we had negative handoff yesterday, the s&p closing lower. will be watching commodities and oil, given the nature of the tariff threat. looking more at what we should watch in asia, we have adam haigh back with us. when it comes to the latest negative term -- turn in the trade war story, markets take it in stride. is this different? adam: as we have seen as this is played out over the last few months, and we have seen every iteration will reiteration of these trade talks, it means people have to once again assess the full cross-section of how many industries this affects, technology to health care, defense. the tricky thing for people, and what we won't see for chinese and hong kong markets,

idiosyncratic moves within those stocks and sectors. we have to wait until tomorrow for those to play out. done inlation does get some way, shape or form before that july deadline. the worry still lingers. money managers have to factor that in as one of the list of worries on the cards. pretty high up on that. interesting to know that chinese benchmark,n the msci chump in the desktop is the chinese exposer -- exposure you much of the developed world over the last few months. as you say, people wanted to take the opportunity to look through the latest of element. -- latest development. ramy: the pound will be taking center stage with the boe decision to provide clues on the chances of the august hike. how serious is this question in the u.k., especially from the currency? adam: i think absolutely it is

still a serious question and one that traders and investors cannot afford to not take note of with very incremental headlines coming that my question theresa may's stance within her group of followers. it is an ongoing issue. thursday.e meeting on what people were looking for was color around where they go in august, given the moves that already happened so far with carney's committee. position of lords' today, wednesday, the vote on the house of commons, both houses in the u.k. parliament, lending supporters, debate as well. the main leadership challenge continues to surround this, no matter what the bank of england can do. politics keeps trumping what they are saying and hoping for

for the economy and inflation. it will continue to be difficult may continues to be on shaky ground. the dollar.o don't forget to check out the gtv library are some of the charts you saw. that is gtv on the bloomberg terminal. let's do more now. still with us is jason schenker. he is currently ranked as bloomberg's number three major currency for faster. let's dig into these markets. your thought with the boe terms. where is it heading? jason: i am concerned about the dollar and the trade risks. it would be higher by the end of the year, but we see things

quite choppy in the interim. looking at the u.k., we see it has slowed in recent months. something to keep an eye on in order to make a decision moving forward. we will see further moves, but i ramy: wrapping in the dollar, where we headed? jason: we are above strong technical supports. we are above the three day, 100 day, but if we look at what we have seen just since the announcement friday, you saw a pullback after that surge in the greenback following what was perceived to be a dovish ecb statement. i think of the trade ris dg on, that is something that poses a genuine risk to the u.s. economy and could dampen expectation of a hawkish fed set of rate hikes. -- thee did the euro

pound, the dollar, let's go to the euro. jason: for the euro, even though the bank said last week in their statement, they announced they would be reducing and ending the bond buying program by the end of the year, they said they expect to keep rates unchanged including negative and positive rates, through mid-2019. i personally am skeptical of this. inflation is 1.9%. their objective is to keep inflation around but below 2%. they are there right now. if inflation heats up more in the eurozone, they are going to have to move the timetable up. the european central bank is notorious for being inflation hawkish. they will go after it. if we get above 2%, they will move. up a: i want to throw quick chart and get your

thoughts with em. this is the gtv library. emergingpmorgan markets taking a hit. this clearly depends on where the u.s. dollar goes, but trade wars and the impact on commodities, how do you expect that? jason: for emerging markets, those tied to commodities could be in a tough spot because if the global economy, the u.s. economy were to soften pastorate concerns increase, if trade comes under pressure, commodity prices will come under pressure. we saw that friday. if those come under pressure, a lot of emerging markets, whose economies are tied to commodities, will come under pressure. that is a big risk to consider moving forward is what we talk about what is going on with the eurozone and the u.k. and u.s. tied to global growth can trade wars. his tariffs provide downside

risk to the outlook. haidi: throwing ahead to the opec meeting in vienna, how does and potential work change the outlook for shale? jason: for u.s. shale, anything that dampens prices is going to reduce the probability of additional marginal drilling. that is something we see from trade war and these tariff retaliations. .hat presents a risk you see less need, and opec is under the same pressures as well. haidi: jason, always a pleasure. thank you for coming on for us. stick around as well. jason schenker from prestige economic. the saudi oil chief executive expects -- talking about opec, the gathering indiana. what is at stake and how prices are volatile. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: getting some lines crossing the bloomberg. arizonaked to buy mining for $1.3 billion, six dollars 20 canadian. and all caps off are. arizona mining there with that packed being a great to be bought out by south32. we will get details. we will stick with commodities. oil in particular, the big event the opechis week, meeting friday and over the weekend, saudi arabia, russia's desire to raise oil production by 1.5 million barrels a day could be dead in the water before it gets started. venezuela and iraq will join in a proposal. remy got more on this. he is above all with all the

charts you need. this could be a contentious, messi meeting. ramy: we can see some of that reflected in what is happening in the oil markets. looking at the mixed crude, down 1.3%, brent crude down .6%. this is compounding the losses from friday, give or take a couple percentage tenths. both of these commodities falling. pop into the bloomberg terminal because i want to show you that special functions. for theis the dashboard subscribers. you can see production numbers in all of opec and see high graph form. read is saudi arabia, the biggest producer out of opec. this is not include russia because that is opec plus or ropec. the bloomberg terminal chart i want you to know is all about production and spare capacity.

looking at here, you can see this is the slowest on the chart since 2012, 2 .8 billion -- million barrels per day. the problem with this is for the countries, they are trying to get this up. from the iaea they think this may drop to a three-year low. this could come to 2.5 million. the cause of this, the u.s. sanctions on iran, the economic crisis in venezuela. one interesting positive note is the iea says opec could boost output by 1.1 million barrels a day, so this might be a temporary blip if they need to increase supply. while weside because are talking about that we have had to talk about russia because last week russia said, we want to pump more. they are the ones along with tony arabia trying to get this proposal passed.

-- saudi arabia trying to get this proposal passed. they want to get to 31 million. we see those three countries say not yet. not until we can all agree because we have to benefit proportionally. one other thing, with the last terminal chart, we want to take six years.ive or this is not the right one, but i will talk about you to it. when we are talking about oil, we have to talk about shale out of the united states because this rises and will impact prices. the white line is u.s. reduction. the blue line is saudi arabia. we have passed that at the start of this year, looking ahead to russia among represented in the red. we will see that in the third or fourth quarter. office -- investors are trying to pull this together, bringing in u.s. production and what if anything might happen with opec.

bedi: it is going to interesting going into this meeting given the deep divide. let's get thoughts from jason schenker who is in new york for us, prestige economics president staying on with us. the -- ishale really u.s. shale reallyhe big producers here? jason: it is relatively inexpensive to bring online as opposed to marginal additional supply like oil sands or ultradeep water. we think about a cost, the different oils you can drill. shale is not the cheapest but it is not the most expensive. it is in the middle. there is possibility for additional supply. haidi: talking earlier about the conundrum facing central bankers and their policy in a world that has so much uncertainty and a change of scenario almost every

day depending on what trump says and how beijing response, would oil policymakers be feeling the same way? should opec be putting more supply onto the market at a time when pottially if you have trade tensions accelerating, the demand side will be impacted? jason: that is right. opec is the central bank of oil. their decisions don't necessarily target price. the production, production decisions we saw made at the end of 2016 that have been implemented have been designed to push oil inventories, stocks down to the five-year average because there was a supply overhang. now they are on top of the targets they said, but the question, and you are right to ask, what is the trade impact going to be on oil demand growth in the global economy? these tit-for-tat tariffs could not come at a worse time for opec.

if prices are going to be higher, more barrels will come on and whatever decision is made , opec is likely to search for a way so they can respond to the demands in the market should they rise but not expose muchelves to much -- too in case trade tariffs become too negative. ramy: in your book, i am curious about the disincentive for the u.s. to continue pumping oil in the best interest of an election year. jason: it is good for the economy. there is a lot of jobs. as long as the companies are generating more than they are spending to drill, it is profitable. you never go broke are making a spread. as long as that is the case, it is positive. with risks in the election year, it is low.

ramy: we will have you back for the next time slot. jason schenker, sticking around. bloomberg users can interact with the charts shown using gtv . you can browse recent charts, key analysis, and save charts for future reference. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: china is making inroads into the pacific island nations, extending loans, building infrastructure to boost influence. one of those countries is pop on new guinea where a new -- top wonder getting where a new courthouse is under construction. this is very much beijing's playbook right here. >> they are moving into this .egion and a big way

there are workers everywhere, basically constructing roads, building buildings like the courthouse, other city buildings. they are basically being built by state owned enterprises from china as part of concessional loan package to png. this has people worried over there. some of the locals are concerned their sovereignty may be compromised, and as you mentioned also the u.s. and its allies such as australia also are concerned about china's ramping up influence. ramy: why are the u.s. and its allies so concerned about china? basically because they are concerned these nations may be compromised, their sovereignty it may be compromised through trapped diplomacy. china has really ramped up its

aid and concessional loans to this region dramatically in the billion., around $2 these smaller nations, tonga and samoa, they are facing sort of stress. there are concerns china may use its leverage, economic leverage if you like, to win other concessions from these and the endgame would be to build a military base or basis in these islands nations very china itself has denied that is its purpose, and it says it is simply trying to help out these governments, ramping up their infrastructure which is much needed. ramy: our australian government reporter, jason scott. thank you. jason schenker, i want to bring you into this. what are your thoughts off of china's growing part -- hard and

soft power in the world? jason: i think thejason: djibouti base, it will not be the only military base they open as they extend their influence. what we see in this region is further esion first financially. we could see more as jason alluded to. ramy: getting back to your final thoughts as we wrap up this hour, midterm economics, the name of your book, we were talking about how it comes down to one number looking at 2020. jason: that is right. we analyze all of the different economic indicators. we talk about unemployment, auto sales, gdp, housing. unemployment is the number to watch because if that goes up between midterms and 2020 election, the president is unlikely to be reelected. we saw that with carter, george h.w. bush, we saw that with

herbert hoover and some historians would consider him -- that is the difference with a two-term president and one term. last week was meant to be the most important week of the year for investors. what are we missing here as we get into a brand-new week? jason: the biggest number to watch is going to be a series of words. the biggest ring to watch isn't necessarily a policy from the central bank, but it is what we see come out of the tariffs and the $100 billion being piled on, what happens with china, how does that move forward? opec is watching that. and the markets will convey that uncertainty this week. having you on, prestige economics president, the guest house for the hour. thank you for sending your time with us.

check out his new book, midterm economics. good to know about the nature of the terror threats. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ retail.

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yvonne: we are live from bloomberg headquarters unit cap stories this monday -- headquarters. top stories this monday. heartland responding to the u.s. tariffs. the president says he is ready to escalate the fight. it is just past 7:00 p.m. on a sunday year. opec facing a primary meeting indiana leading a rebellion against saudi and russian plans to pump more oil.