tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg June 27, 2018 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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yvonne: it is 7:00 in hong kong. we are live from bloomberg's asian headquarters. welcome to daybreak asia. trade angst hangs over global markets once again. u.s. stocks slide and treasuries rally on concern about the crackdown on chinese investment. equities jump on president trump's apparent softer line of the race gains as larry kudlow -- but erased gains as larry kudlow chimed in. .ever again the ministers says they will be no return to the spending habits that triggered a financial fordown -- further win disney.
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winning approval for a $70 billion fox bid. ♪ kathleen: all about trade today, markets were kind of ruled into thinking president trump after he said he would rely on the committee on foreign investment to the united states not get tougher on china, companies that want to invest in tech related companies in the u.s. verything everything seemed to be ok, then larry kudlow said ok, forget it. stock started trading. bonds rally. trading. bonds rally. yvonne: you would think the softening from trump is a signal that an olive branch, but when you look at this bill, expanding the scope, it seems like that could mean tougher restrictions on chinese investments moving forward. so what we did see throughout the day. kathleen: see saw is the name of
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.he day what looks like a grip and a relief day of gains, everything turned into losses. the dow jones industrial average moving .7, the s&p 500 losing .9. the nasdaq got hit hard because everyone is concerned about what it means for tech companies, so 1.5 percent loss. after the bond market, -- as for the bond market, happy days are here. underscoring comments from morgan stanley, three percent yield, looking in the rearview mirror. we could see the highest for the year. maybe the fed will slow down and interest rates. -- on interest rate hikes. yvonne: the end of the bond bull market is not happening anytime soon. let's take a look at what we are looking at in asia. we are going for a remix of the
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on and off. the anz is up .25%. the rbc, no change. record low 1.75%. that was the messaging. now andfutures down modest declines for the nikkei 225, but we see futures a little firmer. the kospi futures down .3%. e.m. was hobbling. but look at currencies. the dollar is stronger, we see .ollar-yen 110.24 the aussie dollar is unchanged. the kiwi is seeing strength. -- in termshe rv a of hikes or rate cuts, they could go either way when it comes to policy depending on where the economy goes. we have been watching the rush or renminbi, down for 10
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straight days, the longest on record. just barely under the sixth when 52 handle. 6.52 handle. we are close to the highs of last year than the lows, but the has beenepreciation the fastest since the devaluation in august 2015, so one to watch today. we did not see a lot of intervention, but the fix getting more and more important. kathleen: got a lot of tongues wagging. let's get to stocks, taking a look at the u.s. close. su keenan has more. if i was a tech investor and feel good, today i am not doing great and worried about trump. su: they are learning to roll with it. these are momentum stocks getting thrown out or sold off with tax. when you say trade talk is not in the next, these go higher.
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that is the general direction. let's look at the snapshot. you will notice has kathleen mentioned, bonds of the yields lower. that has impacted banks. gold at a fresh six-month low, down 3%, biggest drop since september on the stronger dollar. let's get to oil rising. to some of they charts that we will show you the big moves again. the energy stocks were the big ones, particularly the drill stocks that you see at the top. on the bottom you have the tech. they were in the red. the next panel, i talked about banks. this is something we have never seen. this is the 13th session where the banks are lower. it has everything to do with this. bond yields, 10 below 3%, down for a while, creating concerns about profitability for the banks. what the interest rates will be. let's go to the media madness that has been happening around disney and comcast and 21st
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century fox. the u.s. justice department gave the antitrust approval to go ahead for fox to be bought. that puts pressure on comcast. what will they do? will they beat the sweetened bid from disney? unlikely,likely -- but it will keep focus on these stocks. let's go into the bloomberg. gtv is where you can find these charts. this is one of the topics of the day. volatility spreading. and here you can see the crossing in the volatility index and the move index and what it tells us is convergence with currencies and stocks and bonds, all of them having big gyrations in volatility. yvonne: you talk about oil as well, we have seen big moves. the white house putting pressure on iran exports. now we have u.s. crude stockpiles. once again lighting a fire on this rally. su: it really was an add-on.
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we had oil off to the races. how much? let's look at this chart. here is a three-year chart, the highest now and forth years, since december 2014. what you see all the far right is the big shoot up in this lead . let's go to the one week chart. you can really see it. part of the big rise was mentioned with the trump white house said we are going to cut back and put pressure on iran exports, then you have this 10 million barrels unexpected drop in u.s. supply. let's go to the bloomberg, gtv. you can find these charts. this shows you the spread between one month and three month. it shows you the size of the move reflected in these contracts. one more time, energy stocks, they really moved. if you look at the bottom diamond offshore, the biggest mover, it has to do with the fact they are in the drilling business. when you have a 10 million barrel drop, they are in the
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green. yvonne: thank you. let's get the latest on the trade tensions and bring in washington reporter greg sullivan area we heard from president trump. he decided on a less confrontational approach to china's investments in sensitive technology. dialing back a little bit, but what is the position now? greg: the administration announced they will be seeking orcurb chinese investment investment from foreign companies but using a committee that scrutinizes foreign companies' investment in the united states for national security risks. administration invoking a national law that was earlier reported to be on the table. instead they would use this committee. simultaneously congress has a couple bills working through the legislature to expand the role reform thosend committees.
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the administration hoping to use that. one other point to note is while the administration has accused china of intellectual property theft and theft of technology, they did not single out china in the announcement of the plan to move forward. yvonne: president trump keeps saying president xi is his good friend and he wants to work this out. is it possible this point in time, the more trade oriented members of the initiation are sort of winning his ear and counseling him, you got to be top but also give room to cooperate? greg: this is the position of those more trade oriented members of the white house. for them this is a win on this issue. we know trade advisor peter navarro had advocated the tougher more blunt approach as they seek to change china's trade behavior. treasury secretary steven mnuchin had advocated a more conciliatory approach perhaps,
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and this is his position. definitely a win for that side of this rift in the white house on trade issues. theleen: maybe it is difference between an academic and one who has worked on wall street. thank you, greg sullivan. now let's get the first word news with jenna. reporter: a minneapolis fed reserve president says he believes u.s. inflation is listed and moving towards the central bank's target. in an exclusive interview he told bloomberg with inflation around 1.8%, he is comfortable with moving towards neutral, which could be one or two hikes away. he said the fed should determine a neutral unemployment rate and stick to it. >> one simple thing is don't ratchet it up. if we figure out where it is, maybe 4.5, maybe 3.5, in this cycle if we say it is 3.5, i say the next time there is
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recession, let's hold it there and operate monetary policy using that assumption rather than the reflects of ratcheting it back up. reporter: apple and some sun -- and samsung have reached a conclusion in their fight. the terms were not immediately disclosed. the lawsuit started in 2011 when samsung was sued for copying the design of the iphone. the thing: -- there was a retrial. says hek prime minister will stick with the financial commitments agreed with european leaders this month. he has told bloomberg there will be no return to the spending habits that triggered one of the biggest financial meltdowns in the continent's history. greece struck a deal to exit the rescue program. >> what happened in greece in previous years and let us to bankruptcy was a huge waste of
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money, corruption and irresponsibility in the management of public finance. we should not go back to that. as far as i am concerned, i will do what i can for greece to not go back to that time. reporter: defending champions germany crashed out of the fifa world cup with a defeat to south korea. it is the fourth time in five tournaments titleholder has failed to make it out of the first stage. germany finished bottom of that group after sweden beat mexico. the five-time champions brazil went into their final game in danger. the final group game in danger, but they set up a knockout match with mexico. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. kathleen: thanks so much. still ahead, the u.s. drop blind-sides traders. ing bank's rob parnell with
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yvonne: this is daybreak asia. i'm if a man. -- i am yvonne man. kathleen: trade fears still dominated markets with asia suffer a big start after u.s. majors lost ground. we mean stocks, bonds, you name it. joining us from pennsylvania is vanguard group global chief economist joe davis. the basic, then u.s. treasury today. stocks looked like they were going to rise, bonds not doing too much. larry kudlow said trump was not retreating on trade, a rally
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ignited. why? joe: thank you for having me. we went into a year saying the fed was going to continue to march on a gradual tightening pace. we were hard-pressed to see 10 year treasuries breaching 3%. we were above that for some time, but it is reminder there is global forces at play. there is considerable risk and high valuation in parts of the market, equities. we will retrace. we still live in a world where between 2.5% and 3% on the 10 year is a fair value. kathleen: let's look at a bloomberg charge. we have the 10 year yield showing the rally. over the last few weeks, another gtv chart now, i will give you from the library. it is the spread between two's and tens. it has gotten so flat. is this something the federal
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reserve and investors can shrug off, or is it sending some kind of a warning signal about where the world is heading amidst trade wars and the fed that says it will raise hikes again? joe: it is the latter. they will try to minimize it at times area domestic labor market conditions are fairly robust. but one of our thesis for the rate hikes, then pause it, december and into march of next year was too full to. if we were right and they raise rates in september, the fund rate will be above the core inflation for the first time in over a decade. that is meaningful. that effectively says phase one of the tightening cycle is over. the burden of proof to raise rates further is higher. trade tensions are only a isinder that a pause increasingly likely, but that is not reflected in current commentary. yvonne: does it change how you
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feel about when we will go into recession? the odds are low it is not a near-term threat, but what would a downturn look like? joe: the downturn would be mild, assuming -- three conditions have to be in place and we have a commodity price spike unexpected. justwe have the fed run fed funds rate above the rate of inflation and the curve has inverted. i still think an inverted yield curve is powerful even in a lower interest rate environment. that would lead to a recession that would be mild, although it could be mild or, in part because the growth rate of the economy is lower today. i don't see the imbalances that would lead to significant downturn, nowhere near 2008. the closest example is 2001. but it could be a longer duration. it is in areas that need to
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tread lightly. with every headline of the trade they do not go at the current pace, uncertainty will generate a so-called tax on the economy which will slow the numbers. right now we are in the basis point range in terms of drag on growth, but should they persist and increase in magnitude, our expectations for growth would fall accordingly. yvonne: it is interesting with the latest development when it comes to using that law as a way of curbing u.s. investment. there is a way to measure this but with this law, it seems like it is something of a long drawn kind of procedure. does that have more concern about technical flows that can be disrupted? joe: clearly investment from
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corners of the world is a key component of economic growth, so that is grabbing attention. trading goods and , this is part of a broader dynamic. in one sense the tensions between the united states and china should be of some surprised, given the ascendance of china in the global economy. but i think it is important to both of you one -- both view one 's policies but leave the room for negotiation which seems to be at least open. i am prepared for bouts of volatility on the trade front, given some of the longer standing issues with respect to technology as well as china, relative to us in the economy.
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kathleen: it is interesting the short end rallied. is there beginning to be doubt that the fed can do more rate hikes? one of everybody's favorite functions. go to the left-hand side of the screen, and you see this long line, yeah, we can do to more. if they moved for rate hikes at just the wrong moment, falling stock market, chinese currency and stock issues will slow them down? and i don't wish for economic weakness because of our fed forecast, but we would have remained firm on three rate hikes meeting september yes, december unlikely. we remain there. we were more looking at it becomes more restrictive at some point. i think the market is not discounting enough the temporary weakness. our leading indicators are
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starting to show significant weakness six months ago. we see that in the currency markets with the renminbi, but that will be another additional headwind as you mentioned. i think we will see a little bit more priced out of the fourth rate hike and financial markets if we are right. only would financial markets say that but over the next several weeks we will hear from the federal reserve starting to contemplate phase one versus phase two of tightening and pause. that is more of our forecast. that is something that remains to be seen if the fed will agree. kathleen: thank you so much, vanguard group chief global economist joe davis. just ahead, as recently emerges is from its debt, it is asking the continental debt crisis. more with greek prime minister alexis tsipras. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: this is daybreak asia. i am yvonne man. .athleen: i am kathleen hays leaders have yet to find a solution to the migration crisis, but they could get help from the continental longtime problem children. as greece climbs out of its debt burden, alexis tsipras is offering to help in a problem he said his country had no help in creating. he spoke to john mickelthwait. the migration crisis is here to stay. it is not a crisis we will overcome easily. it has to do with big causes behind it, the wars and inequality and demographic imbalance. we need to consider whether the crisis and any other big crisis and challenges faced by europe will be dealt with in a collective spirit. as european challenges that require european dilutions. or whether each country will deal with them separately by
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building fences or looking only at its own backyard. i support the former approach your the latter could at the end of the day not only make the problem bigger but also lead to the dissolution of the european union and the way in which we think when it comes to solving these problems. john: we have here the issue of brexit. when you offer anything to mrs. ?ay in terms of bilateral deals do you think there is something greece and bring? -- can bring? alexis: we cannot compare the , but it isof brexit interesting to see how things have changed. greece from being part of the problem has managed to become part of the solution. the term brexit is no longer part of the european vocabulary. i was of the opinion and am still that this is a difficult choice which we have of course respect.
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this is the choice of the people, but we believe it will not be for the benefit of europe or the british people. we will need to try in order for the terms of brexit to be the best possible terms, the european citizens and british citizens. we already are working very hard to find the best possible solutions. this is not always as you can imagine very easy. i believe we will succeed and in the end, we will have a fair arrangement. yvonne: that was the greek prime minister alexis tsipras speaking to bloomberg editor-in-chief john micklethwait. we are counting down to the open. let's see how things are very. we are expecting a modest decline, but furthering the , .3%s we saw yesterday down in the nikkei 225. we are expecting retail sales to come through, expecting a contraction for the month of may. dollar-yen not doing a lot, 110.27. kathleen: the disney-fox hunts
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yvonne: 7:30 thursday, beautiful morning outside. the clouds are coming through. we are 30 minutes away from the first major market open. we have been talking about foreshadowing. the markets are racing ahead. kathleen: we will see. if the sun breaks through, kind of a equally cloudy day in new york. maybe sort of reflecting the markets. it is 7:30 in new york. markets did close lower. kathleen hays in new york. yvonne: i am yvonne man. you are watching daybreak asia. let's get to first word news with jenna. reporter: bank of england governor mark carney said time is running out to remove a brexit threat with as much as
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$127 trillion of derivatives contracts. contract continuity issue could cause having in financial markets would britain leaves the bloc next month. the u.k. has announced steps towards a solution but the e.u. is not reciprocated. -- has not reciprocated. president trump have a list of prospects to replace anthony kennedy. the 81-year-old will step down at the end of july, letting president trump nominate a successor who creates the most conservative for in generations area kennedy was a swing vote to legalize gay marriage and during a campaign finance restrictions area the white house is moving ahead with plans to limit chinese investment but decided against invoking a really use law. instead president trump embraced stronger scrutiny of intellectual property rights
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with the committee on foreign investment in the u.s. the less confrontational approach helps ease fears of an abrupt escalation in trade tensions with china. >> they will be allowed to invest, the question is how. ownership, what is the threat of technology transfer for theft of intellectual property? these are payment that the new group will have to decide. reporter: a leaked report from a think tank backed by the china warns of panic in the second-largest economy. it is a sign that policy is growing concern about an acute -- market turbulence. from bondangers defaults, liquidity shortages and the recent plunge in stocks in the u.s. trump'sg to listen to demands to halt purchases.
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oil and others are considering ending imports. south korea has already put orders on hold while the uae's emirates national oil is seeking alternatives. under revived nuclear sanctions, the u.s. wants allies to end purchases of iranian crude by november 4. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jenna, this is bloomberg. yvonne: thank you. we are counting down to major market opens in the asia-pacific. let's get to sophie kamaruddin. we are seeing more than the weather. forecasting what this means for the markets, but it is like -- [speaking simultaneously] sophie: red flags being thrown up over the em space, getting stocks in currencies set up for the worst in september 2016. the yuan is in the spotlight after losing 3% over two weeks. that raises the risk of trump
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reviving accusations of currency manipulation. so the yuan bears may be in here for the long haul. see this chart here. hsbc saying it is no longer totally controlled and after the turmoil settles down, 640 might be a fight but for the note yuan volatility is across the space. morgan stanley saying that em is in the danger space. a method -- ms has lowered its target for the index for 1000. that is the line in red from 1160. that has given the pace of tightening, the rule of global growth outside the u.s., and the u.s. china trade. kathleen: a lot of forces at once, but let's look at the tariffs. the levies on auto imports seeing many casualties and what do you think? we have a new report,
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one that tariffs could come up with a higher cost on camrys. the price tag could increase $1800 as toyota is likely to pass on costs to consumers and canadian oil fire linda mars is facing a crisis. they will make 2009 look like a walk in the park. this is as tariffs hit the consumer and hammer the economy. and a french automaker is seeing an impact of the threatened far away asng as the samurai bond market. the smallest bond since the gse, and you have on this chart here, you can tell there are ways to -- even though these have not been put in place, we are seeing the echoes of these worries. kathleen: thank you so very much. interesting to see what it is doing to autos. in the battle for control of
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fox's entertainment, the route goes to disney. antitrust regulators have approved the $71 million bid, hurting comcast. the l.a. bureau chief joining us. he joins us now. so disney got the department of justice's vote of approval but they have to jump through some hoops. >> there is no way to look at this other than a big win for disney when you can look at what at&t has to buy time warner, challenge the justice department and win. so having this approval is so relatively soon in the process. it is good news. one condition, they have to sell fox's regional sports networks. these are local cable channels tied to the new york yankees. that disney a bid never seemed to entirely want. they indicated they would divest those assets. they gave this up.
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but basically got approval for everything else, consolidation in the movie business, consolidation in tv. definitely a victory so far. yvonne: tell us what this means. selling the regional sports networks, somebody could really snap them up at the right price. who are they? worth $20y are billion. potential buyers could be anyone took a look at the is still, comcast potentially in the mix. it could be private equity firms . there are a lot of folks who like sports tv. yvonne: is this the end of the road for comcast to sweeten any kind of bit? -- bid? chris: it looks like they are in the game. they have not conceded anything. they may very well make another
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higher offer for all of those fox assets. or they could cut some other deal, by the regional sports networks, by sky, the satellite network in europe. there is this piece of hulu that they own. there is a lot of options for dealmaking still. yvonne: all right, still some skin in the game. our bloomberg calais bureau chief joining us with the latest with apple -- i should say disney area switching to apple. apple and samsung have reached a settlement in their patent battle ending a seven-year fight over smartphone design. let's bring in our reporter. we talked about what i saw you -- a saga this has been. in 2011, the way back apple fired the first shot against samsung, lending a list patent violations -- claiming alleged patent violations,
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mirroring the organization and back ator of the iphone the time. fast-forward a year, 2012, there was the billion dollar lawsuit. apple was awarded that by jeremy deadspin a jury. -- apple was awarded that by a jury. juryhen another one, the awarded $539 million in payments to apple. samsung said they were going to appeal that. they cited a supreme court ruling from a few years ago. fast-forward to today, we have a full settlement between apple and samsung. no terms disclosed, but this is over for now. why did they finally settle? you think about how long this has been, the legal fees they have paid, the reputational damage for both sides as well.
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was it exhausted? mark: someone told me the only people who won here was the lawyers with the legal fees. apple got what they wanted. they got the courts to side with them on patents. it is good motivation for an innovative technology company like apple because it confirms the patent system works and why they are doing what they are doing. they got half $1 billion out of it which is not much to them. samsung doesn't have to fight. they can move on. samsung's designs are often cooler. they are going in different directions with displays and sensors, gestures and whatnot. it is pointless to consider this fight. it was really theirs to give up. kathleen: what is the lesson learned for these companies and the industry? mark: that these companies will fight tooth and nail for upwards of seven years to protect
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patents or say they are infringing on patents. so don't infringe, whether that is intentional or not. kathleen: like a bad divorce. thank you very much, our bloomberg technology reporter from san francisco. up next we have rob carnell, whether tiny -- whether china can use the yuan as a trade tool. this is bloomberg. ♪
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a look at stories trending across the bloomberg platforms, terminals subscribers are reading about the retirement of the u.s. supreme court justice anthony kennedy may leave to the most conservative bench in generations. elon musk has pushed back against a goldman sachs production the carmaker will miss their estimates. another interesting story, family fortunes and the trillion dollar inheritance set to be handed down between generations, a good one to read. check out reticence plans to triple its room count despite the looming -- radisson's plans to triple its room count in china. we will have the industrial. we will know more about the china open later on. those are some of the stories trending on bloomberg online and on the terminal this morning. kathleen: can hardly wait to check them out. the form of a rapidly declining yuan.
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joining us is the ing chief economist, head of research for china and the pacific. they have cut their year-end forecast for the region's currencies. i want to get right to it because people are watching the yuan and how it has gradually weekend every day. -- weakened every day. this chart shows how stocks have entered a bear market. this has been going on for a while. the key question is, are the chinese deliberately letting it fall now to show they have a weapon in the trade war, or is it fundamental forces and the chinese are not fighting it? rob: that is a good question, but let's get back to the point about if this is a weapon or not. a weaponf you can find as something you used to damage someone, it is not a weapon.
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in thet best a shield trade war that is unraveling now. not really effective either. china is using this to offset some of the damage it is likely to suffer as terrorists can imposed, trade starts to get hit . it is not by any stretch going to completely alleviate any of the pain terrorists will inflict riffs will inflict on the chinese economy. you will see the yuan has not moved as much as other currencies in the region. there is a generalized weakness story going on which is not very surprising when you think of how incredibly trade sensitive this part of the world is. how much power does the pboc have any way to control the yuan? they can do things with capital control. they have the cut in reserve
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ratio requirements for the banks . they have got to deleverage. it is complicated to be trying to manage a currency and exchange rate. rob: they are as you point out trying to manage multiple objectives with the policy tools at their disposal. to be fair, up until this point they have done a good job. late in the currency weaken a little bit is reasonable to what has been going on. in the background, and you mentioned capital controls, there is always the worry in china that as you start to weaken the currency further or fast, you see capital outflows. you are seeing changes in legislation to try and encourage capital investment, to get firms to invest in new technology, the financial sector. they are trying to offset and balance that. the pboc is likely seeing those inflows coming in on the capital account and hoping that is going
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to be enough to offset any domestic attempts to get money offshore as they see the dollar-yuan moving in the opposite direction. yvonne: we have talked about how the conservatives are quite interesting now. it shows the pboc is setting tose fixings much stronger the last close but still no margin 62 fault this slide. if you read between the lines, how much pain are they willing to tolerate and how do you find a bottom for the renminbi now? rob: it is difficult to say where the line gets drawn, but it doesn't seem very hard -- they are fighting hard, and why should they win the other currencies are moving in a similar direction? perhaps the yuan is in a half of the regional currencies which is doing slightly better than the others. you would not want to see a trade weighted yuan appreciating too much regionally, so that is
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in the back of their minds about how fast they can go, the pace to manage this and ultimately how far they have to go. in the end, where the sense, you have to take a punt on how far you think the terrorists and trade -- the tariffs and trade war will go. that is impossible to declare. slashed your forecasts with not just asia but em and fx in particular. we have a board that shows all your calls, and is quite drastic , seeing from the dollar-won, dollar-rupiah. what do you think is driving this? is it dollar strength, and do you think this yuan weakness could exacerbate the em space? rob: there is multiple factors in the chinese forecast you throw up. we are touching that now. we will have to do something
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with that very shortly, so that will move. the others, we can -- the fact is we got to that ok, but those trade scenario is one. -- is eon. -- one. very strong correlation which works through the global crisis before and after. being prepared is a way to the moment, looking at the next couple of quarters to carry on. you have a generalized sense of risk which does not help the em market, it is tied to the trade war's. all these things are tied together. there are multiple issues. these are things which we are trying to gallup quickly towards trying to re-shift our forecast and get a good ranking from you guys. ,athleen: i want to ride over get the news on japan retail sales for the month of may coming in weaker than forecast.
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down 1.7%. the economists we surveyed were looking for a smaller decline of 0.8%. on year-over-year basis, not so bad, still positive at zero point x percent. the previous was 1.5% year-over-year, so we have a trend of weakening in japan. .hese numbers can be volatile we saw department and supermarkets are also down. we got 2% on the month, so something the boj has to be watching closely. i want to ask you a question and veryna's economy broadly how much can this trade war impact them? they are big exporters, so dependent on the u.s. they manufacture a lot that they sell to the u.s. how could this affect small and medium enterprises? rob: you are right.
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it is one of those questions which, how long will it be? they are dependent on trade and so is the whole region. the ramifications go far beyond china. once those markets in the u.s. look as if they are being closed off, china will be looking see,d to places nearby to and i felt this elsewhere? the second and third round effects of this become very important. when it looks like this is a u.s.-china trade war, it starts to drag in a lot of countries rapidly. if you look at the contribution to growth from trade around the region, including china, it is not particularly significant. when you look at the calculations, you can conclude it will not be that big a deal, but it will be much bigger because the reality is the gdp arithmetic populations failed to take into account that there are huge numbers of people
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involved in this manufacturing process. they get paid wages, they spent them. that affects the economy. this can have a substantial impact on growth, but let's not forget it takes to to tango -- two to tango. the tariffs will hurt the u.s. the jobs they don't get protected by tariffs. they don't get protected peerless be blunt. you lose jobs when you start doing this, so both sides stand to lose by pushing further, but politics is a driving force, not economics, so we will see where this takes us. yvonne: withyvonne: the -- you pair that with homegrown defaults, liquidity shortages in the markets we are seeing in the a share market, we are seeing these leaking information about financial pain. is that where we are going? and peopleial pain
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having the same conversations on this program, a bit ago, talking about recession in the u.s. this is a global story. we are looking at treasury inversion as a possible indicator of recession, the emerging markets will not be immune to that. there will be a slowdown in the developed world, we are likely to a bigger slowdown in financial markets on this side of the world as well. we are looking at this thinking, can we get a reversion, remove ourselves from the brink of? if you listen to the rhetoric, trump is pretty determined to put tariffs in place. we have seen all sorts of conversations to try to avert tariffs being put in place, but they are coming and we need to put our helmets on and buckled down. it will be rough. i meant financial
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♪ this yvonne: we are live in hong kong. asian stocks face another rocky marketsrade angst and with a warning a financial panic in china. u.s. equities erased gains. larry kudlow denied the u.s. is retreating on china. kathleen: it is just past 8:00 p.m. in new york. warnings of currency contagion. bears may be digging in for the long haul. toyota says u.s. consumers will
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ultimately pay the price of the trump tariffs. yvonne: not much is from the trade session on wall street. with talkdown session against chinese investments. and then larry kudlow come at. kathleen: the chinese currency weakening. been as this trade war as clerics, as academics are willing to go on the internet inside china publicly say, hey, x presidenti, i,ybe this -- president x maybe these aren't going so well. even if he has not used to the measures, we are
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still living that direction. the weakening of the renminbi is not a trade weapon, marvin trade shield. let's look at the market open with sophie. sophie: i'm sure investors are wishing they had a shielded to defend themselves against these losses. the nikkei 225 set for a second day lower. ditto for the topix. a third day of declines seoulul markets -- markets. pointing.s. futures higher after the s&p 500 fell below 2700 points, given that kudlow spooked markets. retail sales data to consider. a cell at the most in two years
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at the most inl two years in may. consumers are being cautious. hopes of anash economic rebound in the second quarter. red flags are waving furiously for emerging markets as the dollar strengthens. we had china in a bear market. jpmorgan says it does not look like a day 15 again given that china is not witnessing a commodity meltdown. but the yuan is taking the punches. one month implied volatility is climbing, suggesting that traders have not cut out in this slump. crude oil at $72 a barrel. exports rose to an expert -- to a record high. yuan will it till it is not only important in china.
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now let's get some more on our markets live macro strategist. i love it. a trump put. that was being kicked around on the blog this morning. >> absolutely. there is this general idea, when reactioncessive equity to trump policy, he does seem to soften his town or rollback his original ideas. we saw that this week in terms of the china technology push. even though larry kudlow did rivers that, trump himself softened his stance as equities slumped. this idea going into the midterm elections that trump does not want equities dying on the year. whenever he goes to bearish in equity markets, -- too bearish in equity markets, he tries to
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soften. yvonne: emerging markets negativity, some say it is overdone, maybe emerging markets are ready for a bounceback. what is the logic? >> the logic is the idea that some of the emerging-markets have been pretty extreme. overall, the us and the, while volatile, hasn't -- overall, while the s&p has been volatile, it hasn't gone anywhere. overall, emerging markets are being dragged down by china, where the real focus attention is at the moment. for other emerging markets, there is more different tree and she -- differentiation. emerging markets are taking a bearish stance on the binary macro issues in the background. one is the whole trade situation. will it lead with love trade war -- will it lead to a full out
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trade war? second, emerging markets are concerned about signs coming from china, reflecting a picture where china is a little bit of a blip but overall the story will be ok. developed markets are more relaxed. that gap needs to close a little bit. yvonne: people are looking for margins now. seems like the bears are in control. they are digging their heels. they are in for the long haul. has exploded in options,d -- in yuan preparing for the fact that there might be more weakness against the dollar. it's important to put in context. is currently the third best-performing currency in the world for a while.
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this is just giving back a little bit of the massive amount of strength that has seen over a long period of time. it's not that there is a yuan weakening, but easing of strength. data turned down slightly, we have this stress test. why not ease up a little bit on its trade tears -- trade peers. yvonne: thank you. you can follow more on this story on our live blog. the white house is moving ahead with plans to limit chinese investments. president trump is looking to strengthening the committee on foreign investment. but could there be a new
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dimension to tensions? v chart. at this gt there was no mention here of china during the u.s. president's remarks. what do you think he was signaling? >> you are right. no direct mention of china. not invoking the emergency laws. nonetheless, it does mean heightened investment. the one area where the uss stressed concern several
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times that china is stealing u.s. ip. we will have to see how china response in public. nonetheless, they will see greater scrutiny when it comes to chinese investment. they may not be as pleased as the headlights suggest. they are backing off of the harshest measures. what would that kind of scope and tell for them? >> if you consider china's core strategy for the future, it's all about filling this massive high-tech model, aviation, robotics and the like, that requires technology that china does not even have. the china has to import technology, they have to buy american technology. that is something of an attempt to curb their own economic ambitions.
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we know they are willing to buy goods to shrink the goods deficit in the trade debate. to budgeot willing very much on the red line on the china 2025. yuaneen: what about the and pressure potentially building on them to support the currency at a time when they don't want to send the wrong signals to the united states, delicate tensions, etc.? >> it is coming at a complicated time. there's no doubt about it. of all the times for the you , it is start weakening probably the worst time for china. it is a slowing economy, dragging sentiment down overall. externally coming of the dollar on a tear and trade tensions
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seemingly continuing to deepen. all indications point to a weaker currency for sure. it is uncertain if china will step in and put a floor under it. that is when we get into more speculation. sentiment, the, market wants to push it down and the authorities are letting the mechanism to do just that. kathleen: it seems like a perfect time for the chinese to do it. but obviously, there are real reasons. china is not trying to depreciate their currency. people are wondering what they are -- what will happen to their economy. so dependent on the u.s. purchasing your goods, if there are tariffs and a trade war, how much can you offset that? >> this is least are getting
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into the world of [indiscernible] to your first five, you're absolutely right. point, you aret absolutely right. whether china goes down the route of try to offset the impact of higher tariffs, presuming those tariffs were all enacted, through a weaker exchange rate, is a whole new ballgame. maybe it can offset some of the pain, but it would fuel instability and volatility and go back to where we were two years ago with companies try to get the money out of china. we know all the problems that caused at that time. china work very hard to see the capital borders again. it would be a surprise to see them under that overnight. fisher, the yuan is a factor in the trade debate. where there it will be used as a weapon in the trade war, it is probably too soon to make that call. yvonne: thank you so much.
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the first word news. jenna: new zealand's central bank held interest rates at a record low, but signaled it is prepared to cut them if needed as economic growth slows and inflation remains below target. the official cash rate will remain at 1.75% for now. economic growth has been weaker than expected and business confidence has slumped to a seven-month low. neel kashkari said he believes the u.s. inflation will move toward the central-bank target. he told bloomberg that, with inflation around 1.8%, he is comfortable with moving toward a neutral rate, which could be one or two hikes away. he also says the fed should
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determine a neutral unemployment rate and stick to it. one simple thing is don't ratchet it up. if we figure out where it is, maybe it is four and a half, maybe it is for, maybe it is three and, in the cycle, maybe it is really three to half. i say, and xm there is a recession, let's hold it there -- next time there is a recession, let's hold of ther e. mark carney says time is running out to remove the threat brexit. the contract continuity issue could cause havoc in financial markets when britain leaves the block next march. it isk. has announced working towards a solution but the eu has not reciprocated. apple and samsung have reached a settlement in various patent battle. terms of the accord were not immediately disclosed.
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the string of lawsuits started in 2011 when apple sued samsung for allegedly copying the design of the iphone. that follows a retry in may. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. heart.na degen this is bloomberg. ♪ ahead, predicting massive growth at of asian the next year years. jeff green joins us in half an hour's time. kathleen: the pboc move to ease credit policy according to our next guest. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: the chinese currency has effectively seen a slide. we saw the russian to treasuries as well, giving desk given these given thesens -- trade tensions. received this trade rally right now. do you think we have reached the peak a couple of weeks ago with 3% on the 10-year? nicholas: will we see is the classic flight to quality. let's be honest. back,ou take a step
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economic data trends look strong and robust. treasuries are close to the bottom of the rate range. it is a matter of time before we hit 3% again. yvonne: any time we see about the volatility, treasuries are bought. the fed seems to be on a city cap as well. what i keep the market driving yield forward? nicholas: eventually, the market will get desensitized to the trade talk and we will focus was again on the data. the economy is going gang busters right now. when we get the gdp releases coming through, more bits of economic data to confirm that, that is what the market will focus in on. kathleen: i wanted to talk about the balance sheet and the reduction of that balance sheet.
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chart thatoomberg shows in the broadest terms of how spread it has gotten. plan is for fed this to really accelerate. reserve the head of the bank of india wrote that it is a balance sheet tightening that [indiscernible] that could do too much in bringing down the balance sheet. endolas: as we get to the of this year, not only the fed comes into play, but other central banks around the world. if you look at the combination of the fed, the bank of japan, bank, inean central aggregate, their balance sheet start to shrink by the end of the year. that's the first time in a dead that is thee --
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first time in a decade that we have quantitative easing. three or four fixed income people in the last two or three days i on these -- days on say that this long line is a consensus that the fed is saying to more rate hikes this year. volatility,ket trade looking kind of shaky, will the fed be well advised with two more hikes? nicholas: absolutely. when you focus on domestic u.s. data, it looks robust. when you look at headline inflation in the u.s., well north of 2.5%. the fed has ample reasons to hike another two times this year and they should be doing at least two or three next year. the reality is that the u.s. can cope with much higher rates and the fed have telegraphed that.
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yvonne: if you zoom in, we haven't moved too much here. we have actually edged lower, given the fact that we see the dollar rising, commodities, except for oil, in a freefall right now. do you think there is inflation risk on the outside? the inflation risk commodities, it waxes and wanes during wage inflation -- waxes and wanes. wage inflation, we are in the start of that. that's critical for the consumer picture. inflation,it of wage the tax cuts, together, that is probably good inflation as you look forward. yvonne: where are you buying than? if we continue to see a selloff in the long run, we look at the is aace and say maybe it
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time to dip our toes back in after the selloff? nicholas: e.m. is for the brave. for an e.m.yield government bond is about 6.5%. that looks pretty healthy. when you look at the fundamentals and emerging-market, they look at a good. those wanting to stay closer to home, how about u.s. high-yield bonds, all around 6.3%, something like that, with an environment where default rates are low and recession risk is very minimal. that looks pretty attractive. yvonne: i kind of forecast you would mention high-yield. i have it at the chart here. there is the divergence between u.s. high-yield and the rest of the world. at junk took a look spreads, those have been widening. the u.s. has not been in tandem with that. you think it could last? nicholas: it should. u.s. high-yield has been ultra
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stable. when you look at european high-yield, for the first time in a long time, the spread is much wider for the u.s., given that is longer duration and higher credit quality. europe, again, is growing. default rates are at a very low level. and i you have the valuation argument. yvonne: nicholas gartside a jpmorgan asset management. you can interact with these charts using gtv . catch up on key analysis and save those charts for future reference as well. this is bloomberg. ♪
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latest headlines. jaguar land rover is racing to catch up abide, saying to make a soon. china electric car it already produces a gasoline powered compact suv with a local partner in china. more details on its ev plans will be disclosed within a year. kathleen: elon musk is pushing back. in a knee mail to tesla employees, he shared a link to a goldman report saying only 22,000 model 3's will be delivered this quarter. he wrote they are in for a reawakening. he also included a smiley face emoji. tracker has production at over 27,000 units. next, toyota warns its american
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♪ 8:30 in a sunny singapore. kathleen: you are watching daybreak asia. breaking news from xiaomi. terms in a statement, they mentioned their ipo, the biggest we have seen in almost two years. wellsay the ipo is oversubscribed, but their ipo order book continues to build, and the ipo price guidance will follow later. of course, there is a lot of talk about the timing of this
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ipo, given the volatility we have seen in chinese markets and the equity markets in particular, especially here in hong kong. and also, questions about valuation itself. they have reportedly dow the back expectations. still valued as one of the expensive smartphone makers in the world. we will see if we get more details. saying the ipo is well oversubscribed at the moment. once the first word news? tsipras says he will stick with the leaders -- the agreement of european leaders this month. there will be no return to the spending habits that led to the financial meltdown. what happened in greece in previous years and led us to bankruptcy was a huge waste of money, corruption, and i would say irresponsibility in the
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management of public finance. we should not go back to that. as far as i am concerned, i will do whatever i can for greece not to go back to that tragic period. jenna: the u.s. decided against using a rarely used economic device in case of emergency. the less confrontational approach eased fears of an abrupt escalation in the trade tensions with china. >> they will be allowed to invest. ownership,n is how, what's the threat of a technology transfer or affect intellectual property? things that will have to be decided. jenna: a report warns of potential financial panic in a second largest economy.
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growing concerns about market turbulence and trade tensions. the national institution for finance sees dangers from bond defaults, liquidity shortages, and the recent plunge in stocks. are buyers of uranian oil listening to president trump's demand to halt purchases. south korea has already put some orders on hold while the uae emirates national oil is seeking alternatives. sanctions,ed nuclear the u.s. wants allies to end all purchases by september 1. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm jenna degen heart. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: here is sophie.
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sophie: asian stocks pushing mostly lower with losses deepening in tokyo. the nikkei 225 is set for a second day of declines, lowered i energy and telco -- lowered by energy and telco players. is -- theyhe cost be kospi is cents for a third day of losses. the korean won has had a lousy quarter. the kiwi dollar is extending declines for a fourth session. the nzx 50 is edging for fresh all-time high. world turn toon bank of tunisia with their policy decision.
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as trump has reiterated plans to unveil a new health care plan in two weeks, let's check in on pharma stocks, highlighting estella's pharma, down for a second day. yvonne: it is starting to look like 2015 again. market watchers are sounding alarm on investor panic. i think everyone is quick to say this is like 2015 all over it again. but there are a lot of similarities and differences as well. let's talk about the parallels. >> what is obvious is the scale of declines. paying attention to the currency devaluation because it has weekend to a similar extent that it did in 2015. remember what it has done in two weeks is what it dated two days
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in 2015. even though the scale of losses are similar, the pace is quite a different. lostuity markets, we have $2 trillion since january. that is nothing to scoff at the end that and 2015, it was more than $5 trillion. i think it was $1 billion per trading minute. similar pain, obviously. that's why people are comparing it to 2015, but the pace is nothing like two or three years ago. yvonne: is not the same as it was. someone who is a bear might say it is not that way yet. why would he get that way? what is different this time? inwhat was more worrying 2015 was all the leverage in the system. that is a big sticking point for chinese authorities.
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they have worked very hard with a high-profile campaign to deliver not only financial markets but the economy and the financial system. when the markets ran up significantly in 2015, when we had that bubble, a bubble that are quickly burst, that is something that has a happened this time around. aboutions in stocks, it's 10 times earnings this time around. in 20159 times earnings and some stocks were at 100 times earnings. so the speculative aspect is not really here right now. when it comes to economic growth, the authorities still have a lot of weapons they can use. they are not really willing to turn that caps on when it comes to monetary policy yet. -- they very much much have a tightening bias rather than an easing buys that they had in 2015. there is still a lot that they
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can do. they don't seem to feel that is wanted quite yet. kathleen: that is excellent perspective. i think you may have calmed a lot of nerves out there. there. let's go it has joined the auto industry and lasting the u.s. for trumps 25% tariffs. importes the trump investigation look like? a this is what they call section 232 investigation by the commerce department, which means they're looking at this industry for any affect it could have on national security. that on its face, it seems like a huge straits. the trumpve seen administration do this before with a steel and aluminum tariffs. it was the same scenario.
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they asked the commerce a look at the trade situation for any national security threat. low, they concluded that it was. that allows them -- low and behold, they concluded that it was. that allows the to put -- that allows them to put caps on put tariffs on these items. kathleen: toyota sales, $1800 a car, if you are going to pay for the whole thing at once, it's a big deal. would it really make that much difference on sales? >> oh, yes. and they a real number were forced to -- they also said in the letter that they would pass along the costa the consumer. that would have a big effect on -- pass on the cost to the consumer. that would be a big effect. you have a lot of price sensitivity. it is a very competitive market.
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car fires do shop and look at prices. that big of a hit would really crush their sales. keep in mind, that particular say -- segment is one that has been weak. people have been favoring suvs. that kind of increase for cam a would not be good for sales. it would be very hard for a company like it to make up in way.er something to keep in mind is that that is toyota's estimate of what their additional costs would be. they did not say that that is what they would be forced to raise the price of the vehicle by. yvonne: interesting. we heard from the likes of dialer and their warning, talking about retaliatory efforts in the eu. you have hardly -- harley davidson at toyota. is this the beginning of a trend to you -- now you have harley davidson and toyota. is this the beginning of a trend to you? >> i think it is the beginning of a trend.
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you see more and more companies looking specifically at their material costs being pushed higher and the uncertainty. they have to plan the acquisition of materials. the supply chains are extremely complex. they are extremely tight. that is how a company like toyota rings out profits, by tightening up at supply chain. so when something affects the prices of its parts and materials, that can only throw things off. it is hard for the company to recover from that. they will ultimately take a hit. when that happens, as we have seen, you will see more and more than speaking out against this. the flipside of that is the perception is certainly that these terrorist threats can be bargaining tactics, that this is just the initial bid. as we have seen, there are many exceptions that will be made to tariffs. predict what will
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be the final result of these tariffs threats and whether they will be made good. we expect to see more and more companies speaking out and wereg, hey, if this tariff imposed, it will hit is pretty hard. we are about 1% this morning. thank you. theng up next, speaking to ceo of trade desk. soaring almost 100% this year. we will ask jeffrey why he sees major digital growth coming from asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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former ceo of morgan stanley says how he plans to capitalize on china's changing economy. isour investment strategy focusing on cross-border synergy. we focus on industries such as automotive, advanced manufacturing, health care, and the consumer space. >> what is particularly attractive now? what areas are you focused on? is it electric vehicles? is it a economists driving? >> we focus on electric vehicles. ev is the future. mobile phones, e-commerce, i would say the arrival of ev, number one, is revolutionary.
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number two, it will come much faster than people are expecting. >> part of your company is investing in european companies. do you have examples of the businesses you are working with in europe along those lines? >> we invested in a 4.0 company automated bell system for car components and pharmaceutical manufacturing. new evg it to the industry, to chinese traditional, makers. >> and you -- traditional carmakers. . >> and you have a euro fund. will you expand your euro-denominated funds? >> our next step is to create a bigger front in euro and u.s. dollars. we will expand the market out of germany. >> where are you seeing the
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greatest opportunity now? perspective,hina floor say is arch, a advancement, china's need for upgrades. there is a huge market demand for these upgrades. which isrenaissance china's one road strategy. china is -- it is one of china's , certaineading sectors health care technology, electric vehicles. lastly, happiness, domestic consumption. written in china's constitution now, people's pursuit for a better life. tv fromtraditional
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on-demand.vity that is changing the face of advertising and incorporating a lot of new technology, like artificial intelligence. a stock of 96% year to date and beating a lot appears out there. joining us is ceo jeff green. thank you for joining us. let's talk about the growth picture you have been seeing with trade desk. what is driving it at the moment? is a lot, not least of which what you mentioned, users not watching as much tv as they were. it's the same content, but they want it on-demand. it is essentially tv that is connected to the internet. nothing is bigger and connected tv. advertisers are figuring out that making data-driven choices are better than where you pay a
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rate card or you just guess. because advertising in this new digital era needs to be data-driven to be effective, by coming to us to use our technology. yvonne: you lost a couple of ai products this well. you have a treasure trove of data now. talk of out the strategy involved, the outer all limbs in terms of death the algorithms in terms of tracking activity -- the algorithms in terms of tracking activity. >> we are constantly using as much data as we can file respecting consumer privacy to make sure that all the ads they see are relevant. moretisers can be effective and content advertisers can be desk and make more money and if they are more relevant. but to do that, you have to use a massive amount of data. ai does the math art, where human beings are good at creating hypotheses.
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ai can crunch the numbers and find correlations that you would not see. like what type of drive you best like the type of car you drive -- like the type of car you drive my indicate the kind of laundry detergent you are willing to use. phenomenal growth of this past year. even so, you are looking to asia to continue this growth. gtdll call up one of our gtv libraries. you already have partnerships with alibaba and by do -- and by do -- and baidu,. >> i moved to asia earlier this year. the global advertising is roughly $700 billion industry. advertising grows roughly at double the gdp.
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all the gdp growth in the world is coming out of asia for the most part. if you look at the middle-class growth in china expected in the next 12 years, it is impossible for a company like ours to be a global company as we are without focusing on asia. and in order to do that, especially in china, you have to partner with the biggest players, like those you just mentioned. yvonne: another charge where china's tech giants orbiting apple. but if you look at the far right-hand side of this chart, you can see how everybody's price is down. how big of a threat is a trade war to the kind of companies you want to work with now? a trade war isk good for anybody's business. but one of the things that is great about our business is we are almost a perfect hedge in the sense we are all around the world. so any single country's actions
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sort of steer our efforts to some place else. having 23 offices around the world and doing business in 12 countries. there's no question that our partnerships in china and the u.s. will benefit us irrespective of what happens in a trade war. yvonne: after facebook, after the cambridge analytica scandal, it seems like i can't go a day without seeing some notification. talking about aia now, it is -- py if they are in new york and the actions taken by these companies is advertising addressing it. i wish facebook and google wish
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they had done more sooner. so do they. but for a business like ours, we do not transact personally or directly identifiable information. so all the information you give to boot your health, i never see it and i don't have access to it dust to it. we don't even have neymar n.l. addresses. all of these things, we do not transact in. we are using a lot more relevance anda -- privacy don't have to be at odds with each other. that's one of the reasons we are doing so well. yvonne: you are not impacted by the regulatory risks? >> i see the actions they have to take because of the big targets that they represent, because of all the personal data they have. because we don't have that, is a totally different game. yvonne: jeff green joining us here in hong kong. for more breaking news wherever
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rishaad: where do those old dead batteries from ev's go? have a special interview talking about how they can be reused. you have a battery in your torch, for instance. it does not give enough life. but you can put it in your mark troll. it's fine. those batteries can be repurposed. the thing is how do you get the mechanism in place to do that? all the questions we will be asking. time does it is a torrid time for equity trading -- it is a toward time for equity trading. equitiesy still prefer as their preferred asset class.
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that is coming up five to 10 minutes from now. and, at the end of the day, they are being pollyanna about globalization. with that in mind, kathleen. youleen: before we hand over to bloomberg markets: asia, let's take a quick look at how markets are trading right now. road --ed across the the road -- the board. that is it from daybreak asia. keep it here for bloomberg markets.
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♪ let me ask you about the country you are from. is at: the you eight he federation of seven emirates. finite. we have to prepare herself for the future. david: you lead a group that bought a premier league team. robert: manchester has been the most successful club. david: do you ever go down and footballs?kick some >> would you fix your tie, please? david: well, people wouldn't recognize me if my tie was fixed, but ok. just leave it this way. alright. ♪
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