tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg August 16, 2018 3:30pm-5:00pm EDT
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said he is directing the attorney general's to file a suit rather than joining existing lawsuits filed by states affected by the spread of the highly addictive drugs. the president wants sessions to look out for opioids coming in from china and mexico, saying those countries are sending garbage and killing our people. the interior secretary admitted climate change has a connection to the wildfires that have plagued california. when asked if climate change was part of the intensity and expansion of the fires he replied of course. >> this is going to take everyone's effort. it is not a republican or democrat issue. this is an american issue. yearing $3 billion a fighting forest fires, i would
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rather spend that building trails, improving visitor centers and so would you. this is not political. this is management. >> he made his comments in northern california where he surveyed damage from the deadly car fire which has earned 2000 acres. company responsible for the italian bridge that collapsed is promising to take rigorous action if it is determined it was in any way responsible for the fatal accident. the company says it is cooperating and conducting its own internal probe into the accident that killed at least 38 people. 20 others may still be trapped in the rubble. aretha franklin's music climbed the charts following news of her death. her greatest hits album hit the number one spot while respect
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reached number two. four of her other songs jumped into the top 40. she died this morning at her home in detroit after a battle with pancreatic cancer. the queen of soul was 76 years old. global news 24 hours a day on tictoc on twitter powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. scarlet: five in new york, i'm lisa abramowicz. >> i'm joe weisenthal. ask 30 this close of trading. stocks rallying. consumer staples leading the gain. >> retail rebound.
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walmart posted the best quarterly sales growth in a most a decade putting amazon on know this. steve mnuchin says the u.s. is ready to slap turkey with more sanctions if president erdogan refuses to release an american pastor. and nvidia could get chip stocks a chance at redemption. >> wal-mart rebounding. posting the best quarterly u.s. sales growth in a decade, fueled by major grocery business, spending shares -- sending shares soaring. climbing close to that $100 per share mark. where do you see shares going? >> we think the shares are pretty fully valued at this level. it is a tale of two companies.
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the u.s. business is performing amazingly. have turned team the company around. the challenge about the equity is the investing they are doing in e-commerce. they're going to close flip card in about the next couple of weeks. they lose one point $5 billion. their own business in the u.s. continues to lose money. the losses are going to be more than anticipated. that is the challenge looking at walmart. we have this great supercenter business. then we have these losses on the others died. -- on the other side. offlet: e-commerce rose 40% a fairly low base. it is encouraging for a company falling behind the curve and giving up share to amazon. my question is, what is the
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trajectory of the e-commerce spending? do expect to see it ramp up even >> that is the trajectory now. losses are going to increase. they're going to close flip cart. they made an investment in china this week. they are all in on this strategy. so as an investor if you believe in that strategy, they are playing the long game, if you believe in it you can go by the equity. we have a hard time seeing out that far. we're worried about these losses. they have been losing money since 1998 in e-commerce. i'm not sure what they are doing is impacting amazon at all to tell you the truth. the challenge is you have to believe this vision. in the u.s. you can see it.
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they have a powerful presence but india, what does walmart bring to the table besides a check book? it is hard to see what competitive advantage they are bringing to the indian market and that is what makes us concerned. if i could invest in just the u.s. business i would be there. joe: it is one thing for a company to essentially by sales. you can buy ads on google and direct people searching for products to your site. is there any signs of actual organic traction in the walmart e-commerce business? people are looking and saying , or is itferings simply spending a dollar to get a dollar? what's one of the things walmart has done well, click and collect
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business which is rolled up into the e-commerce. you put your groceries in. it is been a driver for them. 55% a grocery store. part way because what they are doing with this click and collect business, in the e-commerce side. on the other side the direct to consumer e-commerce against more fuzzy. they have to participate here in the u.s. because it is a consumer expectation. fuzzy, whetherre it is a success or not.
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click and collect is a success. >> on the retail you mentioned the click and collect. how much about this is the consumer base, strong versus market share gains? >> they have both going for them. a great question. 6% ifl growth is north of you put a inflation and real growth. particularly strong walmart country. south texas, with the rebound in oil. there's a lot of momentum. when i was talking to some people a couple months ago they said it is the best economy they have seen for their consumers and two decades. that is pretty impressive stuff.
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that is behind what is going on here. i don't want to minimize what the team has done. you don't see this very often where this company was floundering. the product wasn't on the shelf. price gaps to other retailers in a road quite a bit. they did not have enough labor. the u.s. team has attacked those problems and done it with gusto. they are winning at the shelf every day. you have both going. you have probably one of the best teams in all of retail running the business and we are seeing improvement. scarlet: thank you. bullish on walmart. what'd you miss? maternity apparel is big is in this despite u.s. birth rates to a 30 year low. for more on this, let's bring in jenin will.
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fewer women are having kids but that is not stopping these retailers from going after this market. >> it is an interesting trend. low for a are at a third year but the bigger trend is women are waiting to have children. there is an increasing number of women who are holding off on their having children. their having children when they have more established careers and such. and a sense although there are less women who are having children they have a higher income. more disposable income to buy these items.
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>> these babies are so cute. but you have to think especially as people get older and have babies they want more professional where that is maternity friendly. that is more expensive. where some of the outfits in this area and have to become profitable? >> in the bigger industry, the premium where retailing. they are only a small percentage of that. they are trying to poke that customer by offering these and things you
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what trump to do to explore this question? you askparticular makes of this now? has said publicly the company is shooting for an initial public offering at the tail end of next year. he has also said we don't need to be profitable at the point we go public but eventually all companies need to stand on their own two feet and generate positive cash flow. uber has never generated positive cash flow. it was -3 billion in cash operations. that made me question what we still don't know if this works. it is not bad to be losing money. have investment opportunities. delivery.ters, food
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the issue is if we were to strip out the growth and investment and think about mature markets where people use numbers we don't know if that is a moneymaking business. >> exactly. you made the bull argument. we are investing for growth. uber has been right to do that. capital has been plenty. they have invested in those areas that we don't know if you take out the flying cars and everything else, is the core business profitable? what does it look like when you remove that external capital? it is an unanswered question and the most important. >> he goes to conferences. has he ever said anything about that? >> i don't know if i have ever heard him answer that. lisa: at what point does it matter nation mark they have managed to survive without that.
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they are still in existence. when does the rubber meets the road? >> it may never matter. who needs to generate cash flow? the late 1990's, amazon was losing money now worried at what point to the have to show a turnaround story? is that going to be the test? >> the rubber meets the road if and when capital markets change and they can't get money is easily. we don't know when that is going to happen. it will happen. that is why it is important to finance themselves at some point. >> success is tied to the timing of when it began to operate. investors was cheap wanted to turn their money into more money.
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things might be different and might not be in the position it is in now. >> there is no way uber would be the company it is without the availability of capital since 2010. facebook or not that much older, positive was cash flow for three years before it went public. they were able to self finance before it went public even though it raised a lot of capital. $2 billion plus before its ipo. cooper is $15 billion plus. idea.ives you the >> we still don't know if the uber is a real business. lisa. the: tesla is the stock of hour. rising the most since february. it wins approval to sell an alternative to fb pin.
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recently.ood news he vote of confidence from warren buffett and the epa. >> the stock was the darling of the generic drug industry but loaded. on debt and got in this squeeze. here we are back to today. with puppet investing you have the fda approval of the fb pin generic version today and other data on a separate drug. you see the stocks moving up from seven and a half percent. the best it has had since february. things seem to be going well. myelin, which owns the rights, they stood in the way trying to protect its business. stock has doubled since late 2017 but it is still up 70%
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. what are the big long-term structural issues facing that company that are still causing it to be depressed? >> their problems were they went headlong into this generic drug race. the political environment a ship did. they could potentially benefit rum this is the fda and other governments try to shake out the pricing and create more competition. companies that specialize in making these copycat medicines stand to benefit if this continues. >> to political pressure have to do with this? >> they have been agitating hard to create more price competition. this was a huge issue in the campaign in 2016. trump has followed through with his rhetoric and there has been at least some movement to get
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for one dollar and ounce off from its january high. it is rising in turkish lira terms. there is the a lot of action in turkey. encourageerdogan turks to buy gold and lira. there is an unprecedented amount of trading in gold futures. this is daily volume which is picked up dramatically. the yellow line smooth the
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schmooze things out. the quantity of gold traded and estimable pairs into comparison of london or new york. trajectory, talking about gold bars or jewelry turkey is the world's largest consumer. joe: erdogan and courage and sell gold for lira, we think of gold as being a safety as said, the kind of thing people by when they are nervous but the data does not back that up. our colleague made this. this is the correlation between gold and equities. it has been positively correlated lately. , gold and the vix has
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been negatively correlated. needu are anxious, if you gold, it is your something that gets liquidated in the fire sale. dramatically gold underperform as we saw the turmoil erupt in emerging markets. somebody made money off of this. hedge funds increase their short position in precious metals and industrial metals to a record size right before the massive selloff in precious metals and industrial metals. it justthe white line
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absolutely plunged ahead of the precious metal decline. the worst daily decline in seven years amid the concerns about the trade spat of the dollar. role.a fascinating lisa: it is for them to get it so right. jo: once in a while. mass,see it so clearly in when there is a record short is unusual. scarlet: we will see how it shakes out. maybe it balances out in some form. story will be is gold still a hedge against turmoil or are we done with that? scarlet: that discussion will not be answered today pretty market close, -- today. close, thanks to
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under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store
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and allff session highs three major averages are rallying today. consumer staples are the winners of the day in the dollar is slumping. i'm lisa abramowicz. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. if you're tuning in live from twitter, welcome to the closing bell coverage everyday from 4 p.m. to 5 p.m. eastern. >> let's begin with market minutes. part by retailin earnings. notably, from walmart. with the dow, he will look at the gain of almost 400 points. a comeback from yesterday. looking at the equity markets overall, technology is the laggard with the nasdaq up 4/10 of 1%. board, have all 11 industry groups in the s&p 500 finishing in the green. joe: pretty extraordinary. -- a couple of big
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names are driving it, but it is all up today. scarlet: the doubt -- the dow gained as much as 4400 points. let's look at walmart. it provided a stark reminder that even though amazon had its prime day and is pushing into the food business, walmart is firing on all cylinders when it comes to grocery sales and overall sales. best overall growth in the grocery category and nine years. you can see walmart finishing up 9.3% on the day. on the other end of the spectrum, jcpenney is trading below two dollars. analysts are downgrading the stock and bank of america is cutting it down to an underperformer. they also forecast up much wider loss for the full year as well. -- a much wider loss for the full year as well.
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one company told us that the company is doing well. that is cisco. we want to mention diebold down on the day. one of the biggest lenders is shopping have a billion dollars to save this company. this is according to bloomberg reporting. 's signing nondisclosure agreements and considering investing in a new loan as well. we will keep you posted. joe: let's take a look at the government bond market in the u.s.. not a ton of action. with the risk move, we did not see a whole lot of treasury selling. it's a pretty muted week with all of the interesting headlines even. two year yield is up to 2.60%. and tenure is 2.87%. lisa: let's take a look at the currencies. the steady dollar strength story is today. you can see the dollar is weakening as the turkish lira is rebounding there. a similar move with the
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argentinian peso, to a lesser degree than what we saw in turkey. the u.s. dollar is also weakening against the chinese currency. the dollar is weakening across the board. i want to draw your attention to one measure of the dollar over the longer-term, which i think it's fascinating. this is the trade weighted broad dollar index. it's measured by the government. you can see, even though if you look at dxy, the dollar is well off of its record high. we are climbing up on a trade weighted basis. people talk about the king dollar, there is a lot behind that's now. commodities, on yesterday we were talking about metals carnage. today was a bit of a reversal. oil gained and the funny thing is that gold was down again. even on the day, the gold bounced back. i can't even include gold in this. some of the other metals like
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palladium have a nice bounce back. is general, more positive vibes. those are your markets minutes. on today'sr more market action, let's bring in the chief strategist of the quad group. peter, you have heard us talk about all of the green arrows and goal not getting much of a reprieve from its recent selloff, what do we make of this? have we been overly concerned about a slowdown coming up? walmart had great results in some people would argue it is a proxy for the domestic economy. peter: thanks for having me. today is the day where i love the name of this show. "what'd you miss?" i opened my walmart statement december 31, it had its biggest day in 10 years today, and it is exactly where it was on december 31. it is in the middle of its yearly trading range. i think you have to step back
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and have perspective. it was a great one-day move, they had nice earnings, and i'm not sure how much -- how many people would eat given our obesity crisis and how that will propel walmart earlier. what is happening is we have consolidation in the u.s. in larger cap stocks which are cap waited. -- weighted. we talked about copper yesterday when we tweeted back and forth. you need to have perspective. let's pull things out in the fighter notion. let's look at what we have talked about since the beginning of the year. we are not going to talk about soybeans, we have talked enough about that and it had a rally today. we try to pick the low when there is a commodity bounce, a day bounce whether it is in the dollar weakness. inequities, is the opposite. if it has a one-day off of the high, it cannot be a high. if you look around the world, let's look at the banks, ubs, credit suisse, hsbc.
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those have been associated with lending to turkey. you've also seen the long-term issues of deutsche bank. a lot of these things together, walmart was fantastic, and today, be happy. tomorrow is a different story. scarlet: let me jump in because anyone following nordstrom might be happy. they are reporting gross margin be doing -- margin beating analyst estimates. when it comes to the revenue line, it is also higher than anticipated. $4.07 billion. earnings per share of $.95, and earnings -- analysts were looking for $.84. when we look at these retailers, we look at comparable sales. full price comparable sales. we look at nordstrom.com and the department store itself to read analysts were looking for a gain of 1% -- itself.
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analysts were looking for a gain of 1% and it was up about 4.1%. joe: what do you say to that? peter: i may deflation us so i shop at nordstrom rack. market stocks are not a stock market. they will have their own good performance. if i pick a loser, i could pick dollars out from today. we can look at the disappointing performance of home depot after it stronger earnings yesterday. first of all, nordstrom had a long day in this business. we have until 24 hours tilde close. lisa: but there is a consistent theme which is strength for american consumers. we have seen that in broader economic data in walmart and a whole bunch of earnings. we sought today with nordstrom. at a certain point, you have to wonder. the consumer has a lot more seen behind it and american consumers are confident.
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how far can this go? are we at peak? does this indicate more steam ahead for u.s. stocks? peter: that is the tricky question, because our job is to look forward. atyou think about -- look the rest of the world and we see the weakness and troubles, are we an island? maybe president trump is building that wall which is keeping problems away from us. we are not of that view. if you look at home builders and the numbers from this morning, information, those are all leading indicators of showing potential weakness. we have had tax cuts and confidence. i'm happy for that and please people are consuming. the question is, for looking forward, where is a marginal by coming from? -- buy coming from? gdp, nevermind the government shutdown, uncertainty is growing. as an investor, the further you
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go away from this current point, having whiter uncertainty, you should be trading smaller. peter: peter says he shops at nordstrom rack, they had comparable sales. across the board here, it seems sales are rising at least or percent whether it is the off-price or full price. as a result, nordstrom is raising its earnings outlook. $3.50 to $3.65. we were previously looking at something like $3.35. the i want to go back to question on whether the u.s. can be an island or not. last year was global synchronized growth. no one said it or talks about that anymore. it is now basically the s&p 500 versus everything else. you always say coming on here that you listen to what the and nois telling you, one knows the future and no one can outsmart the market. why is it that when you look at this market, which is so much
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stuff thrown at it all the time and it does not go down, why are you not saying maybe the u.s. is an island? peter: i'm looking at the components that make up the s&p. it's really the s&p five, not the s&p 500. when you look at all of the subsector etf's and they show the weakness, it looks like there is some sickness that is potentially spreading. i keep going, amazon's $500 above its two day moving average. it could go down $500 and be in an uptrend. what does that do to the indices? we have to step back. you cannot compound stocks at the same rate of speed. areway these industries constructed, they are cap weighted. every time apple goes up, it has more cap weight. for the industry to go up, apple has to go up more.
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mathematically, that does not work. we are saying the index as a whole, and that is why it has been running in place for a while, but as you look at individual companies beneath there, whether it is estimates, the retail etf doing really well, but the homebuilders and things that tend to be leading have not been doing well. that is why we are concerned. nevermind the tightening interest rate environment is environments etc.. joe: adversely you identify narrow leadership amongst big companies. facebook looks terrible. this was a company considered to be one of the tent poles of the market about three weeks ago. it was down almost 2% today on when the best days in a long time, but it does not matter. does that mean the market is not as dependent on the few market caps people think? peter: or is facebook a warning for big mega-caps that they will
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reprice quickly. that is the trading risk management question. if i have all of my money in one or two, or three stocks, then, when goes bad, that stinks. on the other hand, it was down 20% on the day and it was $30 above its level from the cambridge analytica scandal. i can argue both sides. it is still a good stock. today was a particularly negative sign. lisa: peter borish thank you so much for being with us. you will be sticking with us. facebook is down about 1% year to date. scarlet: and down for the sixth day in seven as well extending that slump. lisa: with more next read this is bloomberg. ♪ -- next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i am mark crumpton with first word news. the senate today unanimously approved a resolution affirming the press is not the enemy of the people. the resolution offered by a democrat of polite drew on the words of thomas jefferson, james madison, and ronald reagan among others to champion the role of the fee -- free press which is " integral to the democratic foundations of the united states." newspapers across the country are pushing back against president trump's attacks on big news with a coordinated series of editorials speaking up for free and vigorous press. steve mnuchin said additional u.s. think and already, but turkey refuses to release an american pastor. the trump administration says he is even legal be detained --
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illegally detained. the president says it is a terrible thing that the turkish government continues to hold the pastor. for chargesal u.s.ed to a failed 2016 government attempt -- to attempt. a thorough review of the bigs is -- bigs on pipelines raising further delays. critics have raised concerns about spills that could contaminate groundwater, and the property rights of affected landowners. the current and former occupant of the white house joined luminaries from around the world paying tribute to the late aretha franklin who died today at her home in detroit at the age of 76. president trump remembered franklin as he began a cabinet eating today. >> she has brought joy to millions of lives in her legacy
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will thrive and inspire many generations to come. she was given a great gift from god, her voice. mark: barack obama was among those who tweeted condolences. he wrote "aretha helped defined the american experience. in her voice, we can feel our history." prayeross was sitting in for the golden spirit aretha another tweeted what a life, what the legacy. ith much love, respect, and gratitude, rest in peace. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" is still with us and, peter, i want to start on commodities as i have the global commodity prices here. if you look at what happened
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today, a lot of green, certainly in the metals space. joe pointed it out to the gold could not get it up and they are still in the red. if you look at the year-to-date performance, you can see the damage done to metals. drops-digit percentage for these metals. what is the market tell you looking at these metals? peter: if you look at the chart, it is not just the metals, look at the agricultural products. things we don't talk about, coffee, sugar, cocoa. things that smaller countries in central america and elsewhere are dependent on. it is all symptomatic of deflationary signs that are spreading. ishink the last one there the energy complex. for those who like to trade, if you want to get short gasoline, long heating oil, that is an
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interesting press -- interesting spread. crude oil has a lot to go from here. policies are adding to supply. it is easier to drill, lending standards have gotten easier, and the uncertainty around the world is reducing aggregate demand. if a simple economist, but you have more supply and less demand, that is not good for prices. joe: gold is kind of its own thing. what is going on there? as people thought, was some sort of inflation hedge. i'm not believes that for a long time, because you have other products like treasury futures, currencies, and much more liquid market. maybe people want to go into bitcoin. you talk about turkey and the trade buying and twitter before we went on the air. the reality is, gold is heavy. if you're concerned and you're going to take valuables and leave, i would recommend converting that's gold diamonds or something you could carry if
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you want to export the country. coal is just a vehicle, not a currency. it is a commodity. the one thing that has been overly week in relative terms is silver -- weak in relative terms is silver. that is an industrial product. lisa: i want to get your thoughts. silver is suffering. scarlet: let me jump in here. nvidia just reported results. second-quarter adjusted eps of $1.94 beating estimates of $1.85. the second quarter revenue is $3.0 billion. that is pretty much in line with what analysts estimated. in terms of gross margin, 63.5%. this is a tech company with a big gross margin and much in line with what analysts were looking for.
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when you look at nvidia, this is a company where the stock is tremendously low. joe is looking at the one your and the five-year chart -- one your chart, and it's not great, the five-year chart is incredible. this explains the scope of the gains we have seen. joe: we will have to look through these numbers a little more to see what specifically investors are reacting to. the big picture though, this selloff we see is still fairly minor compared to the tremendous gains that nvidia shareholders have seen in recent years. lisa: they had a lot of good news bacon as well. i'm sure a lot of people will be looking for any comments on what we are seeing in gaming in china as well as in general on trade. scarlet: certainly. looking through the statement now, growth across every platform, ai, gaming, self driving cars, and that is what they cited.
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they have not talked about china specifically. that's when the conference call for sure. remarkablea is because it is at the intersection of everything exciting and moving in technology now whether it is ai, gaming, crypto. joe: chips have been pretty weak lately as well. people were looking at this may be to turn the chips around. if the initial reaction is anything to go by, it won't. another one of those classic sectors that people look to as a macro indicator. what does it tell you? peter: when you talk about the stoxx, if you go back 25 years -- stocks, if you go back 25 years, there was only one that is still there which is exxon. innovation is a great thing. the of a stock like nvidia that has gone up so much so quickly,
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that is fantastic. as i said earlier, it is not mathematically possible to compound those at those rates. a 5% decline is nothing. as an investor, you have to ask yourself, where is it going to go? what are my substitutions opportunities in terms of capital appreciation for other equities? the sector went up significantly and we saw trouble with intel. i don't know what this says right after the earnings. if you look at a stock like intel, that is not a particular sign either. the rally continues to get more narrow. scarlet: peter borish quad group chief strategist, thank you for joining us. peter: always a pleasure. scarlet: from new york. this is bloomberg. ♪
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lisa: "what'd you miss?" nvidia reporting the second-quarter earnings and the shares are deepening their losses and post market -- host close trading. investors digest the results. for more, let's bring in tech hardware senior analyst. thank you so much for being here. -- the tech hardware senior analyst. they do so much for being here. what are investors picking up? you2 was good, but three guidance is short of contention. going to the fall, we get a see if this iso them being conservative because the new architecture will be launched and ahead of the new architecture being launched read usually the chip sales we can ahead of that. it is standard before the iphone x comes out -- it is standard.
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before the iphone x comes out, the iphone nine sales are lower. or is it more with a sword to crypto gaming as the interpolator going into the quarter? scarlet: in terms of the new chip architecture, the graphics processor, what is this used for? we talk about how nvidia is represented across different parts of technology, whether it is gaming, cloud, and others. is it used for all of those segments? anand: absolutely. some of the key technology in the jeep used that they reproduce and are repurchased -- repurposed, these are fundamental changes. a higher rate, potentially being able to show light in a clear way, the way it is meant to be shown so images can be shown more accurately as in real life. if you do that well and are able
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to process those information's better, it makes those chips more interesting to game players, people who'd develop content, movies etc.. the same technology, also, can be used in their data center chips as well. joe: i remember you mentioned crypto and how people could not find nvidia chips because etheri um miners were buying them all. that must be overcome a right? anand: we don't know how much -- that must be over, right? anand: we don't know how much of that has been done. they created a new crypto skew and new product so crypto miners could use this product versus the gaming product. on the other hand, when a crypto minor once to get a gpu, he does not care what gpu he gets. there is little bit of that potentially going on.
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lisa: what is the one question you want answered on the call? --eally want to get a sense call? anand: i really want to get a sense and baseline understanding of what crypto is. i want to see the worst-case impact of crypto and want to take it out of my model to model gaming revenue organically. scarlet: let's release you from your duty so you can get to the conference call and modeling those numbers. thank you so much. to reiterate, nvidia shares are falling in after-hours seeing -- trading. analysts were looking for higher third-quarter revenue. lighter than expected. let's get you to first word news with mark crumpton. is askingident trump attorney general jeff sessions to file a federal lawsuit against certain companies that
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by manufacturer opioids. the president said today he is directing the attorney general to file a separate lawsuit rather than joining existing lawsuits filed by states affected by the spread of the often lethal and highly addictive drugs. the president once sessions to look out for opioids coming in from the u.s. from china and mexico. he says those countries are " sending their garbage and killing our people." the top white house economic adviser says china will send a team to washington this month for talks aimed at defusing an escalating trade disputes. larry kudlow told reporters at the white house today "talking is always better than not talking." firsteting would be the between senior and u.s. chinese officials between -- official since the beijing talks. british police have been given more time to question the suspect of a car crash outside of parliament injuring three people. a british citizen was arrested
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tuesday after plowing his car into a security barrier and hitting cyclists. he is being held on suspicion of terrorism and attempted murder. untile is giving police monday to charge him, release him, or seek another extension. after hosting the world cup, vladimir putin says his country could be in play for future summer olympics. sochi legacy was tainted by allegations of widespread doping. they have not hosted the game since 1980. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: let's get a recap of today's market action. the action was up for u.s. equities with the dow up almost 400 points. the s&p gained 8/10 of 1%.
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you can think walmart for reporting its best sales growth in more than a decade, and chinese officials have agreed to hold limitary talks to maybe hold more trade talks to try to resolve the trade dispute. it is early at, but this is a sign of encouragement. after the market close, the retail rally continues with nordstrom. better than up i 12% in after-hours trading because it boosted its adjusted eps forecast for the full year. it had comparable sales for the quarter rising 4.1%. for nordstrom rack, they rose 4% for the quarter. you are seeing the consumer confidence shine through in nordstrom's results echoing what we heard from walmart as well. in via -- nvidia is down 5%. guidance for this quarter is light. short about $.1
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billion. joe: "what'd you miss?" steve mnuchin put turkey on notice. he said the president of turkey could face more sanctions if the pastor that is detained is not released quickly. lira currency handle another hit? our next guest says there is concentration risks for contagion into the rest of the m. robin brooks -- the em. robin brooks joins us now. robin, welcome back to the show. what is the potential avenue of contagion such that the turkey story could become a problem for other vulnerable yams? -- ems? robin: thinks for having me back. what is turkey? you mentioned sanctions, geopolitics, but at the core, what is going on in turkey's credit. last year, there was a big
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lending -- turkey is credit. last year, that was a big lending curve and it was way out of the league of anyone else in the region. the current account deficit lived to an unsustainable -- deficit ballooned to an unsustainable limit. there many other emerging markets that are exposed to that kind of credit overhang. joe: so the mechanism we talk about here is a bunch of credit goes in, a bunch of apartments and shopping centers and malls numbersd that moves gdp but they have to import a lot of stuff like materials from the rest of the world. that causes a balance of payment deterioration. where else in the world do you and suchar conditions similar volatilities? robin: there is a lot of interesting stuff going on. take argentina in the news earlier this year, and turkey. both of them have a current
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account deficit widening significantly on essentially loose credit policies. argentina has gone the past of and i am a program. you borrow money -- imf program. you borrow money and smooth gdp contraction with a pullback in lending. turkey does not look like it is going near the imf. as a result, we see a much sharper contraction in bank read and wewe're -- credit, are likely to see a much sharper reaction in credit growth. lisa: when you look at systemic risk, you have to look at who the holders are. we have a graphic showing the biggest holder of turkish debt is the u.s. and u.s. investors. i have to think, turkish that is probably a blip in the whole u.s. debt scheme and holdings here, but have you see this playing out systemically? robin: it is interesting to look
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at price action when stuff is happening. obviously the last week or so, the turkish lira has weakened very sharply and now we have had strengthening. which we have welcomed. we believe the turkish lira is egregiously undervalued. we had immediate knock effects of the argent -- argentinian peso and others. these are all places that levered up in regards to turkey. global weights are rising and we have monetary policy no relation in the g3. that makes anywhere vulnerable that is levering up. joe: how useful are valuation tools of a currency in situations like this? as a former epic
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strategist, i think you have to be extremely cautious of currency valuation because it is a dodgy concept. i think, when there are agree misalignments, and earlier this year we published research showing the argentinian peso and the turkish lira are 20% overvalued. when he gets that big, something is going on. you have other tangible things like fx denominated debt and so forth. your tangible things to point to. scarlet: we started by talking about concentration risk in the slows in the e.m. that have overwhelmed and built up weekly. turkey being one of them. talk about the other countries also addressed and the composition of the lows. there's a difference between foreign direct investment and hot money. robin: you put your finger on it. there's two things going on. a lot of people talk about how the u.s. recovery is late cycle. that applies to capital flows as
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well. when investors have scoured the planet for profitable investments, they go to more executive -- more exotic locales having lessig d. some of the concentration risk we are seeing is that. we are seeing concentration risk in some of the smaller emerging markets. egypt isle, lebanon, another example, and they cannot absorb much hot money. what we tend to see is the big ofablished natural resource economies tend to get the bulk of that. joe: between the currency getting smashed and the stealth tightening from the central bank, which of not gotten a lot of attention, but it has happened, presumably that will slow domestic demand. between those two things, how do you expect -- how soon do you expect to see a balance of payments? robin: the balance of payments improvement is happening right now.
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it is going to be extremely rapid. the current account on the latest data through june has a deficit of around six or 7% of gdp. within a couple of months on a run rate, we will be much lower to something like 3% or for present percentage points -- 4% percentage points. credit which is contracting at this point quite violently. that will weigh on gdp growth. scarlet: robin brooks, thank you so much. coming up, a tale of two bets. the turmoil in turkey is a prime opportunity for traders. who made fortunes and who have lost fortunes? we will take stock of that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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lisa: "what'd you miss?" diverging fortunes. the economic crisis in turkey pushed the lira to the brink and banks to make a trade. tens of millions have been made and lost over the last few weeks. we have the story. who have the winners and losers been? >> so far, we have seen deutsche bank trading and having made a little money. on the other hand, some traders have lost money. moneymanagement has lost according to those out there. i'm sure we have more winners and losers emerging over the next two weeks. >> when we talk about deutsche bank and barclays being winners or losers, is this what people would characterize as proprietary trading or is it about someone getting too much inventory on their books and anticipation -- in anticipation?
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sridhar: it depends on if you are the compliance guy asking the question or if you are talking to your friends at the bar. i think they would say it is markets making. deutsche bank was positioned against risk so they were expecting a general selloff. what happened the last two weeks have indicated this and allow them to make some money. on the other hand, berkeley was making money and had gotten themselves pushed in the wrong way. it's not a great first impression for the new boss. lisa: does this say anything about deutsche bank and barclays on their position or risk appetite for your vantage point -- from your vantage point? sridhar: deutsche bank, this has been a year of misery for them. massive layoffs, new ceo, scrutiny. this has got to be a good thing for them.
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been wanting to take more risk and maybe they take a step back after this. scarlet: you cover goldman sachs for bloomberg and followed earnings and companies. unless talk about tesla and elon musk in particular. his relationship with the firm. goldman sachs helped take tesla public years ago, and elon musk tweeted saying he is looking forward to working with goldman sachs. talk about how this relationship has developed over the years. sridhar: let's look at the tweet. this is elon's month of jumping the gun. it is the exec same thing he did with goldman sachs before goldman had formally signed on to the deal. he announced goldman was advising them. they still had stock coverage there and analysts were bearish on the stock. it took them a couple of days to inform lies that -- to formalize that. lisa: he has been getting ahead of that and the sec is investigating and the sec was
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reported to ask elon musk how much elon musk shared with board of the letters -- the board of directors. is this going to be more trouble than it's worth? did they incur legal risk hitting involved in issues already harry? sridhar: that is the first -- hairy? sridhar: that is the first issue. everyone was wondering if goldman was already involved before his now famous funding secured tweet. in that sense, where they already giving him advice and confidence that this go private deal was possible? we found out that before the tweet they were not even formally signed on as of monday night. one thing the bank had done is check. when a the opportunity to be in the middle of the $70 billion transaction, how ever in trouble it may be, it could throw off millions of dollars in they want to have a shot at that. scarlet: and goldman worked on
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tesla's ipo and several debt offerings as well. it made more than $22 million in fees from their shells -- shares. sridhar: in particular, last year when they were raising more than $1 billion, a goldman banker was telling all investors in the room asking them to check out the brand-new electric blue tesla model three. scarlet: thank you so much. let's go to the bloomberg business flash. we begin with the world's biggest shipping company planning to send off its drilling units. they will take that step instead of presuming -- pursuing a sale. an official announcement from them could come as early as friday. a canadian marijuana company is ready to enter the u.s. market and its ceo says that is only of
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congress forces the federal government to respect a loss on marijuana. the trump administration has revoked the obama era policy letting states set their own pot policies. a new bill in congress is up that uncertainty. canopy received a $3.8 billion investment. is of the biggest lenders shopping a rescue loan of at least $500 million to save the atm maker. bloomberg learned jpmorgan has asked distressed debt funds to invest in a new loan. seybold has been hurting for cash and has a second quarter loss. tbg plans to stay private. have flirted with the idea of selling shares to the public, but they are now decided to remain an old-school partnership. bloomberg learned they are exploring other arrangements including a possible stale --
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scarlet: "what'd you miss?" the sec is not ready to green light the bitcoin etf, but there's another way for investors to get in on the crypto seen. bitcoin tracker one is now quoted in u.s. dollars under the ticker cxbtf. here with more on how this works is bloomberg's etf reporter, rachel evans. ors is the u.s. listing
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version of this we dished epn. rachel: it is a very wonky categorization. this is an f share. this is similar to an apr. something listed, regulated, registered overseas to be quoted in u.s. dollars on the over-the-counter market in the u.s.. what this means for investors is that if they want to buy it through their brokerage, it will appear to them in u.s. dollars in their account. lisa: the reason why this is interesting is that there have been drama around a bitcoin etf. is this basically a big step toward the approval of the bitcoin etf? rachel: i would say probably not. it is gap for investor that want an etf. i'm not sure if it will help the sec come to a decision, though i'm sure they would be looking on how this performs.
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in terms of helping the sec get comfortable with it, they were clear in january they have issues they want to get through. liquidity, manipulation, and the others, they want all of those issues sorted out before approving any tf. this is a sweet to use -- approving and etf. this is a swedish etf. joe: let's talk about the structure of this. there are normal etf's. if i look at toyota trade in the u.s. which is a normal tm, and thatthere are the adrs have five takers and are weird, what is the difference? rachel: when it comes to trading in the u.s., you have a whole after that soup of things to trade. adrs, normally
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listed stocks, etf's, over-the-counter etf's, over-the-counter stocks, there are a bunch of different ways to access your stocks. what it means here is that this is an epn and this is not an etf. this is an exchange traded. as we learned in february with the vix products imploding, they are different things. the fact that this is able to be bought in the u.s., i do not think this is a step toward an etf. scarlet: let's get back to the idea of a bitcoin etf. lisa: we know the sct turned down the twins and the quantity --filing for a second time scarlet: we know that sec turned it down the twins and the quantity of filing for second time. >> we know regulators have a concern about individual or retail investors getting into the space because of the
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volatility. at the $200 price, you are at a credit investor level. maybe that is a way for regulators to take a small step towards an institutional or regulated product. scarlet: so at a higher price point, he is aimed at institutions. do we have a sense on whether that might qual concerns -- well concerns -- quell concerns? rachel: the sec came out and pushed a decision back on whether to approve or deny a listing request regarding this etf. joe: ro quickly, what do we know about the credit quality of who -- r.o.e. this etn quickly, what we know about the credit quality of who is backing this etn? the custodian and trading platform is something we
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know that is based in london. scarlet: rachel evan, bloomberg's etf reporter, thank you. the etf industry has something for everyone and the macro economic climate makes for a rough particular etf. >> this week, we take you out to see with the shipping etf. it tracks and in-depth -- an index of the shipping industry -- trade under the ticker "c "see." they have around $70 million in assets and carry 65 basis points. investors have been left with a sinking feeling from the disappointing fund performance. sea has a negative return up 40% since june 2011 when it began tracking its current index.
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the same can be soon with the past year with returned stuck in the red. grownnd payments have more than 16% in the same. -- same period. this combined with price declines rings the yield to almost 6%. sea gets a green light in the traffic lay system with no alerts -- light system with no alerts. scarlet: be sure to watch bloomberg etf iq at 1 p.m. everyday our time. joe: coming up, what you need to know for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: "what'd you miss?" walmart helped propel the dow up almost 4%. nordstrom's continuing the rally in retail with a better than expected second-quarter. lisa: and you see nvidia jumping with losses after reporting earnings were they gave disappointing guidance ahead. scarlet: cpi numbers for the euro area is at 4 p.m. tomorrow. lisa: dear earnings are coming out and we will be looking at that. scarlet: that does it for "what'd you miss?" lisa: this is bloomberg. ♪ phones have made our lives effortless.
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