tv Bloomberg Daybreak Americas Bloomberg August 17, 2018 7:00am-9:00am EDT
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stronger dollar just weeks after blaming the currency for taking away america's competitive edge. the weekend turmoil in markets main it is time to buy or sell? blaming raw material costs. president trump warns china only a fair trade deal is a -- acceptable. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." we need the break of the weekend. alix: it is going to be like today. there will not be a lot of trading. you will go to the beach at the hamptons. what kind of risk do you want to take on over the next 48 hours? david: the markets are reflecting that. it is a nice summer friday. alix: that is what you said when we came in. let's take a look at this summer friday could s&p futures pretty much flat. euro-dollar is flat.
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it was a weaker dollar story. now it is a mixed $. dollar story. down 0.6%. this is the worst week for crude in three years. that has to mean something. david: i was not ask you want. alix: we don't know yet. that is the question. david: emerging markets as possible. alix: we are joined by cameron crise, bloombergs macro strategist, and peggy collins, who leads u.s. investment strategy for bloomberg. it was a dramatic week. you can see the dramatic declines we have seen. it is the worst week since that february selloff. cameron, what was the catalyst this week? cameron: obviously, it was the
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carryover from turkey on the one hand, which obviously blew up monday, but that has recovered a little bit. there is the ongoing issue with .hina and china's currency we have had some recovery over the last couple days as authorities have stepped in more forcefully with a couple of measures, intervention and closing the capital account a little bit. dollar-yuan the rate. underlying everything is this u.s., through monetary policy and fiscal policy with treasury, is squeezing liquidity conditions and the rest of the world, and that is hurting em countries that have borrowed in dollars. david: is it overwhelming? peggy: i think we have seen some investment managers overwhelmed. we saw some say long-term we
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think this is a buying opportunity, that a lot of people are throwing the baby out with the bathwater, and turkey is pretty unique. they say they still see growth in em. we saw that erdogan has some limits to how much pain he can take this week and also that this is not over. we will see more volatility from turkey, which is going to shake em. alix: the spread into industrial metals is pretty extreme. this is 30 day volatility. we have not seen this kind of volatility since the beginning of 2017. if you look at this, does this storyou a dollar picture or global growth? cameron: i think it is time you both. dollar liquidity is tightening. the dollar appreciates. the prospects for emerging market countries, which are the most intense users of industrial
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ne.als, my potentially wa you are seeing the same thing with gold. this feeds into the dollar liquidity issue. david: our second story is the u.s. dollar. president trump has his view of the dollar. he tweeted, our economy is doing better than ever. money is pouring into our cherished dollar like never before. inflation is low. business optimism is higher than it has ever been. we are protecting our workers. the cherished dollar. i am just apprised it was not a beautiful dollar. alix: it is like physical, i want to hold you, dollar. peggy: one of the things i have seen this morning is i have to remind myself we are getting closer to the midterms. this comes across as everything is great. the dollar is great. the economy is great. we saw some strong data this
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week from small businesses and retail sales. some things are chugging along well in the economy. waffled on his views with the dollar. we need to put it into perspective. david: if you look at the dollar right now, it is pretty robust. cameron: this indicator is the future of the markets, which tends to capture one particular cohorts of investor, and that is momentum followers, who will basically by the dollar when he goes up and sell the dollar when it goes down. they don't care what mr. trump thanks or anybody else thinks or the data. they are reacting to price. that tells you the dollar has had a nice run, and momentum traders have gone in. ,ivoting back to the em story if the dollar is squeezing against em, and em his suffering, that informs expectations elsewhere. you also have the euro, which
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euro-dollar pair is the most heavily traded pair in the world. brief technical support early in the week, which feeds through into more dollar by purely based on price. alix: the other story on earnings, we got the latest read on deer. we are focusing on its exposure to china and trade issues. they wind up missing estimates. they said replacement demand was solid despite issues over global trade. they did not necessarily say it was new demand. they said investors were excited about new technology. that did not necessarily mean sales. peggy: that is right. they seemed measured in earnings. measured in this sense that they expected more price pressure. one thing of note that was interesting was they do expect
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global population growth trends and urbanization to continue to drive sales around the world. that was interesting to david: population growth they thought would overcome trade concerns because that is the other issue that weighs on deere. president trump has had to say, we are talking to china, they very much want to talk, but they are not able to give us an agreement that is acceptable. we are not going to do any deal until we get one that is fair to our country. is this encouraging or discouraging? i can't tell. talks we aretrade going to get starting next week are relatively low level in nature. everything we have seen from mr. trump when it comes to negotiation is he does not like any guilt that he himself has not negotiated and agreed. from the chinese perspective, anything that will encourage markets to remove pressure from chinese equities or the currency can be seen as a delaying
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tactic. i would be very skeptical that you are going to get some sort of breakthrough or tiffany. -- epiphany. alix: if you see a huge selloff all over the place, does that change the game? you have a selloff, and trump says let's talk. because,it is funny through all of this trait stuff, u.s. equity markets have done pretty well this year. especially when you consider interest rates have also risen. i find it funny when they rally because we are going to have a talk with china, when we have not sold out because we were not talking to china. david: is the president a leading indicator for trailing indicator, i am not sure. alix: i feel it is a trailing indicator, but what i know. thank you. you can find all the charts we .and more, go to gtv
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emma: this is "bloomberg daybreak." orn musk says no one saw reviewed his controversial tweet about taking tesla private. that is according to the new york times. sk said he wrote the tweet as he drove himself to the airport. tesla's board said it has not received a formal proposal. denmark's ap moller-maersk is taking another step to getting
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out of the energy industry. it has decided to sell its oil drilling unit separately. maersk is best known for shipping and will transform itself into a. transport-- a pure company. air france named air canada chief operating officer that smith to be its new chief. he is the first non-french national to run the company. david: thank you. deere announced results for third quarter this morning, with earnings still falling below estimates. replacement demand for large agricultural equipment is driving sales even in the face of tensions over global trade and geopolitical issues. the powerful global trends of increased population growth remain quite vibrant and puts a
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positive light on the company's prospect for the future. youome to shannon's a catch of boston saccocia private wealth. they are growing their business. >> they are. their main costs were run material and freight costs. what is interesting to me is that analysts were expecting this to be a strong quarter, and they were worried about 2019. instead, we are seeing these pressures creep up earlier than the market had been anticipating. that is a watch point. cane says they think they offset these rising costs between cost cuts and price action. you wonder how these price actions are going to work when farmers are struggling with low crop prices and counterbalancing tariffs. will they be able to spend more money on new equipment that is
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already expensive? david: what does this story tell us about the broader question of industrials and how they are doing? begs the question similar to what brooke just said, we cannot say enough from a transparency perspective to understand what the longer-term effect of the tariffs is going to be. with rising costs already, analysts and investors will have a hard time finding out when will these costs start to creep into earnings. are we going to continue to get these negative surprises over the next several quarters? that is a concern in the industrial space. alix: i was interested that deere said the replacement cycle was strong irrespective of global trade. when you are a farmer, there comes a point when you have to replace your equipment. that is not saying there is new demand or a lot of demand. i wonder the
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distinction they're going forward. >> that is an important point. bloomberg news had an important story talking to farmers saying they could not afford the new equipment. they are maybe looking to the used equipment market are looking for other ways to prolong the life of the equipment they have. that becomes a much more expensive choice in the face of these tariffs. that $12 billion of aid that president trump announced, people look at that as a band-aid. david: how much of this is anticipatory? if you look at our trade with china, it has not been curtailed significantly because of these tariffs. how much has trade been affected due to anticipation? talking about tariffs with china, they are exporting just as much, in fact exporting more and going into the red. shannon: there are two parts of this.
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number one is the immediate change in input costs and higher expectations of those costs. that is some anticipation. i go back to the fact that we don't have the transparency we need. there is this lingering concern. we also have -- we are waiting for this rotation to the value sectors. we all want to be buying industrial companies. we cannot right now because we feel there is this overhang of what could be and not necessarily what is. alix: are there some that you could buy or a second-tier affect where you might get a value play? shannon: that is an interesting point. we have been looking at industrials that are not as tight to tariffs. our clients keep asking us, what are we doing about increased geopolitical tensions? we are looking at defense companies. they have been hurt in this trade away from value stocks. despite the fact that tariff
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pressures are lessened, we have been looking at names like raytheon, which is an interesting mix of domestic and international investment, but will not be as effective by these tariffs. alix: it also raises the question of who in the industrial space has done the work before the tariffs and who is still trying to play catch-up? brooke: that is a good point to make. a lot of these industrial companies that prepared for the first round of china terrorist have not necessarily done -- tariffs have not necessarily done the homework for the second round. those that are still trying to play catch-up will be hit harder once those tariffs escalate. david: is there risk aversion? if those talks go forward, and they settle these issues, there could be an upswing for
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companies. shannon: i think there will be a jump in some stock prices. the reality is costs are going higher. just the expect solution or resolution of this tariff talk to necessarily tailwind forlete these companies. we need to understand that this is a new environment we are entering where we have inflation and need to be thinking about that. brookehank you to sutherland and shannon said casio -- shannon saccocia. loserey could have been a this past week. this is bloomberg. ♪ s is bloomberg. ♪
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surprised to the upside yesterday. you can see how the stock price did as a result. they added another line to what is a complicated retail story in the second quarter. alix said, you can guess which one is the big loser. shannon saccocia of boston private wealth and sarah halzack. give us a sense of this retail story. you have walmart on the upside and jcpenney on the downside. down to think it comes execution. we know we have this pretty strong consumer backdrop right now. walmart was able to draft off of that. jcpenney was not. e-commerce growth was 40%. traffic was up 2.2%. basket was up 2.3%.
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when people coming to their stores, they are buying more stuff. jcpenney is having to clear inventory because they don't have attractive merchandise right now, and they are suffering the consequences. david: there are a couple of other people listen to be executing, home depot and nordstrom. they performed well with the full price and discount lines. sarah: it is important that we saw this resurgence in nordstrom this quarter. they bounced back with 4% comparable sales growth. tjx, these are some of the best performers. they are taking market share away from traditional market stores. this was a good sign for nordstrom and its long-term future. alix: if we come inside the bloomberg, amazon, the white line is the retail srt, and the
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red line is the s&p etf. srt.n growing 1.3% of the what are the opportunities in retail? shannon: if you go back to the narrative of last year, regular retail was dead. amazon was going to take over all of our shopping experiences. what we are seeing is companies really think about what ways they can compete in a global environment. walmart is a great example. they have a distribution network through their store that allows them to do perishables and compete with amazon in that space. ross stores is another great example. they are not trying to compete with amazon. they are trying to create a differentiated shopping experience for consumers. the story that retail is that, i think retailers need to work harder and fine-tune their go to
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market strategy for consumers in this day and age. if it is not effective, we will go online to buy what we need. david: one of the interesting stories in retail when we talk about how strong their sales are, we don't so much talk about margin or profitability. this surprised me. i will pull up the graph on my terminal about operating margin and profit margin for retail. it has been rising, approaching 6%. companies that are doing well are doing particularly well. sarah: i think that growth in operating margin reflects something important. for so long, these retailers were being pummeled by not only amazon but fast fashion players that were following trends, and they have been on this long journey to revamp supply chains to react more quickly to trends and manage inventory in a different way so they can chase trends while they are in the market instead of buying things way ahead of time.
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this has been a years long journey, and it is finally starting to pay off. you see that reflecting in the margins. alix: shannon, how do you play that? shannon: what we are looking at whoho is doing that best, is avoiding closeouts, and who is keeping tabs on their inventory? we are moving out of companies that have perhaps grown too quickly, too many stores, too big of a footprint, and going to those that have a strategic growth plan and will continue to balance store growth with sales and have growth on both of those avenues. alix: who is that? shannon: i mentioned ross stores already. that was a by early this year. we are happy with that. they will probably add another 700 stores. they are targeted in their market, versus starbucks, who we will probably see -- they have been trying to reach into areas
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that are not in their wheelhouse, i guess. too many stores. when you're thinking about retail, you are thinking about discretionary in general, thinking about where we will be able to carve out a niche for the companies we are looking at. alix: thank you very much. shannon saccocia of boston private wealth will be staying with us. david: paul stewart. alix: paul stewart. nice tie. the route in emerging markets continues. we will discuss next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ phones have made our lives effortless.
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which could save you hundreds of dollars a year. plus, get $150 dollars when you bring in your own phone. its a new kind of network designed to save you money. click, call or visit a store today. alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." we are in a pretty good mood here on set after a turbulent week. docuseries down 27 points. they were positive when deere
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earnings came out. the mood reflected a little bit in the market. european stocks also down, the hardest hit is the metal stocks. the risk off move continues in copper and palladium. it is a mixed dollar story. it was broadly weaker, but now that is changing a little bit. euro-dollar getting a little relief. 1.13 is how we print. taking a check in on the yuan. the fixing rate was moved this week, trying to stabilize any theoff in the yuan against dollar. crude having its worst week since 2015, although performing better than its other tomato the counterparts like copper -- commodity counterparts like copper. david: you pointed out it is not
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merely down as dramatically as other commodities. alix: oil and copper are really the two. david: we turn to emma chandra with first word news. good morning. emma: turkey has stabilized its currency and standoff a full-blown financial crisis this week. president trump says the u.s. will pay turkey nothing for the release of the pastor. they also warn that more sanctions could be coming if he is not free. the journey in the paul manafort file in the u.s. will continue deliberations today near washington. the jurists asked the judge question about what is reasonable doubt. president trump's former campaign chairman is accused of tax fraud. that the has learned
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ceo of google told workers at a staff meeting that it's china plans are exploratory and in the early stages. there are reports that google is developing a search engine that would censor results in compliance with the chinese government. some employees are not happy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. david: i want to say, i don't envy google right now. china is an awfully big market to be excluded from. as soon as they comply with our rules, they can come in, no problem. alix: they also face a push back from employees in a space that is competing for talent. if you get a job offer from google or microsoft, and you don't agree with google's policy on china, then you take the microsoft job. david: in the u.s., how often do we go to google, but if you know
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google is excluding certain subjects, what would that do to the flow of information? alix: stop it altogether. david: you understand why the employees are upset. you understand what the company has to think about the market. alix: maybe they should stop reporting quarterly results. david: you are thinking just like the president. in speaking with the top business leaders, i asked what would make business jobs even better, stop quarterly reporting and go to a six-month system. that would allow greater possibility and save money. i find interesting about this, mark warner, democratic senator from virginia, has been on this bandwagon for some time. mark warner is a businessman. he says the biggest problem right now is short-term is in. alix: jamie dimon said this as well. if you don't give short-term guidance, companies get punished
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for that. david: these earnings every single day during earnings season, you can see why if you are a ceo, you are worried about what you have to report it alix: you say you are going to forecast something lower so you can beat it. you get into that situation. ncorekeller gets -- gle gets a nice report. our emerging-market stocks still in investment opportunity? >> there is no question that there are opportunities in emerging markets now because of this incredible decline in the currency state we have to be very careful -- currencies. we have to be very careful about where we invest. >> if you are exposed to turkey, i would reduce exposure. also assets -- most volatile assets in the world
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strongly outperform the least volatile assets. >> there is opportunity. one of my colleagues earlier today, he said, listen, you have the fed hiking rates and tensions on trade, and that is critical for emerging markets. >> i think it is a value trap until we really know what the future holds with all of our talks with china. >> there is a sense that as soon as the clouds clear a little bit, we could see a strong bounce back in em. alix: with us is shannon saccocia of boston private wealth. how are you playing em? shannon: we tend to be longer term, but in emerging markets, we are playing a short-term gain. number one, we have heard the overhang in tariffs. we have this renewed tension around turkey.
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what has been driving the weakness in emerging markets this year is the dollar. from a technical perspective, if you are looking at the dollar and you are not seeing any evidence that it is going to begin to weaken. longer-term, it should be weaker from our budget deficit and treasury perspective, but in our perspective, to step in front of this while the dollar is still an issue, terrorists are at are at issue,ffs and china is an issue, it doesn't make sense. david: when you look at growth, earnings expectations, the top line is the blue line, the u.s. across the board outside of china, it is all going down. can this continue? can the u.s. continue to go in a different direction from the rest of the world? shannon: no.
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what we heard yesterday is china is falling apart. that was a, that was made. comment that was made. if the rest of the world is weakening, that will eventually impact the united states. it would be naive of us to say weekend truck along this late in the cycle. alix: you mentioned the dollar and expected strength that continues. if you come inside the bloomberg, take a look at the position of the dollar. the white line is what happened to the dollar, and the blue bar is net dollar positions. bestis not having the time of it this week. the growth differential around the world changes and other countries catch up and the u.s. comes down a little bit, what are the chances of that happening? shannon: that was the thesis coming into this year.
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i think a lot of investors did not expect to see the dollar strength we have. there is an opportunity for the dollar to weaken. it is difficult to pinpoint that and see the catalyst over the next couple of months. alix: it sounds like what you would want to do is just buy small caps and go defensive. is that the right interpretation? shannon: i think this sector in the u.s. is attractive right now. aretrifecta of things driving that, limited exposure to international, limited exposure to tariffs, and the tax reform that was much more helpful for companies that had a higher effective tax rate going into this year. as i said, longer-term, we feel like international and emerging markets. we are waiting for an opportunity where we are getting more clarity. i think small-cap stocks continue a run.
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i don't see anything upsetting that trend over the next couple of months. david: talking about portfolio reallocation, between health care and technology, we have seen technology dominate things. we are starting to get some indication that health care as compared to technology is coming back. does that make sense to you? shannon: we have been overweight in health care for some time as well as technology. i can play both sides of that coin i suppose. since the election and prior to the election is the overhang about potential changes as far as it relates to obamacare, reimbursement. what you are seeing now is a very healthy acknowledgment that there are health care companies that provide growth opportunities, and if you are selected, you can test selective selective, you can
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avoid that overhang. continueeen biotechs to struggle. that is something where if you are looking at those opportunities and peeling back the layers and not just seeing the top level, there is opportunity for growth for the next few years. alix: the names you would be looking at in both? shannon: in health care? alix: and tech. tech, who trimmed facebook earlier this year, we like salesforce and microsoft and what they are doing in the cloud. despite the fact we don't the hardware install to the degree that we get historically because we are not buying as many of those particular devices. on the health care side, we're looking at the equipment, whether it is names like medtron
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ic, just trying to pick our spots. we are not entirely out of managed care. we do own united health. that is based on our expectations for growth over time in the private space. david: the president this morning tweeted that one of the ideas he has heard from some business leaders is that should go away from quarterly reports to a six-month system. sec to, i have asked the study!. i think from a corporate perspective, having to manage analyst expectations and deliver on the quarterly basis does mean towards more near-term projects and not as much long-term thinking from a strategic perspective, however, from a transparency perspective, i think it would be difficult for us as investors to move to a
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different cycle over the near term. longer-term, we can think about that. it is good to keep corporate management accountable and accessible. i think quarterly reporting does that. david: great to have you with us as always. coming up, tysons free range. we take a look at the meat maker's animal free future coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
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emma: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am emma chandra. coming up in the next hour, diana amoa, jpmorgan's asset management fixed asset portfolio manager. this is bloomberg. alix: we turn now to business week beat. first up, tysons free range. the meat maker explores animal free future. israel's health check revolution. the wealthy feel safe. leaving one of your homes is scary, but this offers ease of mind and a place for your submarines to unwind. [crosstalk] david: the submarine is what you
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take under the water. alix: this is why my producer said to read the intro before you do it. david: arco anchor of bloomberg businessweek. we look forward to it. this is fascinating. tom hays, ceo of tysons, is a big meat producer. he said let's be sustainable and let's do away with meat. >> it's a remarkable story. there are two things he had to take on. this is a company that had fallen under a lot of criticism for its practices, its employees. he had to undo that. he also had to improve that. he had to look at a future where people are eating less meat, beef.ally less
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pork has mainline. chicken has gone up. the white line is pretty start. alix: we also have oversupply. prices go down. how much of this is economics versus let's change our business model for the better? >> true. they are absolutely responding to the market. this is not just we should do good things for the world. i'm sure that is part of it. this is reacting to the market. part of what comes into it is science. they are creating meat in laboratories. david: protein. not me. >> sounds delicious. alix: the second story you are going to feature over the weekend on business week is teva. they were the pharmaceutical company in israel. they moved out and left all of these people unemployed, and this was a good thing for the industry. at the historyk
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of silicon valley, it was the big companies throwing up engineers and smartpros who went on to create -- smart folks who went on to create other companies. this is not historically happened in israel. teva has been so dominant. they had good news this week, which is they got the epipen generic. this has had a very positive effect in israel. david: startup nation. third story. alix: submarines. david: that you keep in your safe. it is a great story about these really expensive safes, $250,000. people don't want to go to the hamptons without knowing there is a safe place to leave their expensive watches. >> i love the intro, it is scary to leave your home, one of your homes. this is remarkable. joke, shegs made a
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said, for this six-figure safe, you'd better have more than six figures. is it allowsings you to showcase all of your expensive watches. alix: you open like a drawer or something? >> there is mirrored glass that you can unlock, show someone you are safe. one of the best details in this story was a customer asked them to design a safe that the interior was -- an exact match to the interior of their aston martin. up, teslasng regulatory woes. the company is reportedly under sec investigation for elon musk's tweets and its model
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david: president trump out with a tweet just a little time ago, would maked what business even better in the u.s. , stop quarterly reporting and going to a six-month system, that would allow greater flexibility. i have asked the sec to study. this is not the first time this idea has come up. >> that is right. a lot of companies have been pointing to the fact that the quarterly earnings, the pressure around that is bad for companies. it distracts from the ability to put more money into research and development. they point to it as a reason why a lot of companies are staying private. we have seen a reduction in the number of public companies on the exchanges.
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i wonder which business leaders he is speaking to and talking about in what areas. alix: elon. shannon atthat, wealth bank in boston pointed out that you need the accountability of responding to investors. d.pointed to for would it be important to separate chairman and ceo roles? >> there have been a lot of criticism of florence over the of theout -- boards years about how much they are keeping the company accountable. i think the transparency thing is a big question. you would give up transparency in terms of quarterly earnings two times a year, and that is something we have been talking about related to test the. tesla.company goes -- to
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if the company goes private, they would lose transparency. david: thank you. one of the things we are watching is tesla. according to the wall street journal, they are being investigated not only for elon musk's tweets, but their production of the model three last year. you can see what has happened to stock since that first week. i found interesting this new york times interview, he said i tweeted while i was driving to the airport, and i did not give it much that. i don't think the sec will take much encouragement from that. it points out that he is under a lot of stress. alix: he said he was not sleeping and the only way he could sleep was to take ambien, ,orking 120 hour days exhausted. you are looking at a ceo who is
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struggling to keep it together. who is the number two? who is going to watch over him to keep them on the straight and narrow? david: they have looked at reports that sometime in the past they have gone to sheryl sandberg. where is the board? he is taking ambien. they are worried because he is tweeting through the night. why isn't the board doing something? alix: it also stresses how important it is to be independent, not only separating chairman and ceo, but a lot of the board has close ties .usinesswise to elon musk david: there was a quote about what about stepping down, and he said if you can find someone better to do this job, fine. as a leader, you never want to say that.
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you want a leader who is optimistic and confident and wants the job. to raise the specter of giving the drop to someone else, anyone who can do a better job, let me know, they can have the job. you don't want to hear that from a leader. alix: it is also ego saying there is no one better than me. david: that is part of the problem. alix: no doubt we will have lots of articles about this over the weekend. -- diana amoaama will be joining us. e.m. after do with the week we have had? this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
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his support behind the stronger dollar a week after complaining the currency was taking away america's edge. is it time to buy or do you have to play defense? deer in the headlights. trump warnsresident china only a fair trade deal is acceptable. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." i'm david westin right here with alix steel on a hot, but beautiful day. we don't have rain right at the moment. alix: gah! you just killed it. now it is going to rain 72 hours. it has been a rainy market week. that is for sure. it feels like it is a summer friday. futures off by about 5. it is going to be hard to take out risk positions in the next 48 hours. 0.11%.llar climbing
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it is a mixed dollar story. you are looking at 24 basis points. crude off by 0.5%. looking at the worst weekly loss in three years. the commodity route smacked markets on wednesday. david: oil did not do as badly as any other commodity. alix: it could have been worse. david: but get an update on headlines outside the business world with emma chandra. emma: president trump wants to know if it would be better for companies to record earnings twice a year instead of quarterly. he tweeted he has asked the sec to conduct a study. he said it would allow greater flexibility and save companies money. turkey has taken measures to stabilize its currency and stave off a full-blown financial crisis this week. it faces a renewed threat. president trump said the u.s. will pay turkey nothing for the
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release of a detained american pastor. the administration warns more sanctions could be coming if he is not for you. the jury in the paul manafort trial resumes deliberations today. the asked the judge question at the heart of every trial, what is reasonable doubt? global news on air and at twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. this is bloomberg. david: it appears the president is tweeting some more about his military parade this time. it looks like he is going to cancel the military parade after the estimates of the costs went through the roof. he is blaming it on the local government.
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it is interesting. the last estimates had $50 million being the military costs, not the d.c. costs. alix: it is always someone else's fault. don't hold your breath on that military parade. emerging-market stocks are in bear market territory. are they still an investment opportunity? here is what some guests have had to say. >> there are no questions there are opportunities in emerging markets. because of this incredible decline in the currencies. but we have to be very careful about which countries we want to invest in. toif you are overexposed turkey, i would reduce exposure. most volatile assets over performing, that could get you into a panic.
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this time, it is really emerging-market centered. >> there is opportunity as well. rates ande fed hiking you have tensions on trade and those are both things that are critical for emerging markets. >> i think it is a value trap until we really know what the future holds with oliver talks with china. our talks- all of with china. >> we could see a very strong bounce back in emerging markets. >> we are generally longer-term, but we are playing a short-term game here. david: welcome back to savita subramanian, bank of america merrill lynch. and from london, we have diana amoa, from jpmorgan asset management. diana, let me start with you over in london. what do you make of what has happened this week with emerging markets? diana: well, this week, we have
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seen the story in turkey has taken huge prominence in the markets. as a result, we saw a little bit of contagion in prices coming through two other emerging markets. partly the dollar, as well. the broad trade weighted index appreciating against other currencies. that house also been a haven for em. there have been a few things that play here. the turkey story is one thing. additional stories on russia are another thing. one can't discuss emerging markets without talking about china. and market data has been a bit disappointing. david: what the bar chart basically illustrates, if you look at it on a one-week basis, a lot of the sponsor strengthening. even in turkey and argentina.
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is that what you are seeing? there is- diana: certainly a sense of the bear market fatigue coming through. we had some indications that there might be a rapprochement between turkey and the u.s., but i think these are a lot of headline risks on that story right now, so turkey is fairly volatile right now. in the broader em space, there is a broader sense of bear market fatigue, and we are seeing people looking for volume. alix: savita, you are nodding. where would be the safe place to go find value? savita: within em or the u.s.? emx: if you could talk about , that would be great. savita: i would look for earnings revisions. earnings have been negatively revised the last few months. there are some areas of em that
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are starting to see some inflections. i think india looks a little better than other regions. anywhere that has been summarily sold off or baby thrown out with the bathwater, i would look for a trend in bottoming revisions. that there are value traps and opportunities. alix: this is what you are talking about. earnings revisions for global indices and the blue line is the s&p and the other lines are pretty much everything else. china is purple. you have a developed world. u.s. is yellow. savita: it does not look great for em, but i think there are regions where you are seeing some turn in revisions. the u.s. looks stellar and that explains a lot of the outperformance of u.s. equities. alix: to that point of the value trap versus value, diana, where would you see the value in em debt> debt? diana: some areas in the
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corporate sector have been unfairly penalized, particularly with the investment-grade parts of the curve. when you speak more broadly, look for the stories where the domestic story is improving or you are seeing risks lessening, and the political cycles are behind us. mexico, for me, should be one that investors should be looking for opportunities to engage in. the noise around nafta and the headlines we are getting seem to point to an imminent deal in coming weeks, so that is a positive. additionally, mexico should benefit from a stronger u.s. economy. we are thinking more broadly in terms of who does well in this point in the cycle. where do we see the risks dissipating? that is one market that we like. david: talking about currency in this sense, the u.s. dollar strength to weakness plays a role in emerging markets. futures trading. futures traders are betting on the dollar right now. we had a discussion this morning already about forward-looking or
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following momentum, but where do you see the dollar going and how important is that as we look at em debt? diana: i think it is very important, particularly for markets vulnerable to external marketing. we think the dollar should continue to outperform, but we are certainly coming to a point where we think some of the dollar strength will start to level out as well. in the short-term, while we are seeing growth momentum in u.s. remain quite robust, i think gdp tracking around 3.3%, you have a lot of headline risks coming through from trade, from sanctions, which is causing a bit of a slight to safety coming through to the market. you have a fed still in play. i think that remains net supportive for the dollar strength in the near term. going forward, once we start to see the rest of the pick up on growth, and some of this headline risk dissipate, then that might be a good point to
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consider broad-based engagement in em currencies. alix: savita, your call on the dollar? onita: i think the bias is strength on the dollar. the way that everybody seems to have been playing that is by buying small-cap, and i think the risk there is that small-cap does not benefit from a strengthen the dollar. we have done tons of worked this proving the thesis that a strong dollar is good for small caps. the massive rally we have seen in small-cap, you want to fade it. play dollarto strength -- normally, strong dollar is good for more defensive areas of the market, like staples like health care, i like health care a lot as a very inexpensive sector. political risk is mitigated. everyone is worried about drug pricing. that is the key headline risk, but if you are in a strong dollar environment, health care generally does pretty well. alix: we are going to break that down even more with savita subramanian. diana amoa will be sticking with
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according to the "new york times." he said he wrote it as he drove himself to the airport. he said that funding for a buyout has been secured. says it has not received a formal proposal. google is trying to quell a controversy about its stocks over what it will tried to reenter china. there are reports that google is developing a search engine that of theensor results chinese government. some employees are not happy about it. alix: how do you play the market right now? come inside the bloomberg. when the line goes down, tech is outperforming. when it is up, health care is outperforming. health care has started to outperform us. still with us, savita subramanian, and diana amoa. savita, what is your take?
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health care over tech? savita: i like them both, actually. [laughter] savita: i think health care is poised for it. offor a period outperformance. it has gotten great revisions. this quarter and last quarter, we have seen record earnings surprises. fundamentals are bedrock. alix: we have a full screen we can pull up if you can walk us through it. savita: yes, basically we like it -- it has generally seen lightened positioning over the last couple years, based on political risk, based on the idea that tech is the only place you can get secular growth. it is defensive. just in case you were worried about the cycle turning. health care is a defensive area of the market. is view on u.s. stocks constructive, so we like the s&p 500. health care is actually a better way to play defense than staples
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or utilities, which are much more expensive at this point. i look at health care and it has everything you want. good valuation, contrary and positioning, and it is -- contrarian positioning, and it has seen good fundamental lose --news in london over the last couple months. , is part of itoa what is going on with the yield curve? the spread has been there quite a bit. is that a signal to investors, whether in fixed income or equities, that we should pull our rains in a little bit? i think in terms of the predictive power of the yield curve and now it has behaved -- pastt has behaved in cycles, we still do have the disturbances of qe. buying in the net markets.
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you do have external things weighing on the curve. i think the reason to move on the long end has been because of what we have been seeing on the external front. some of the headline risks around turkey weighing on europe , etc., etc., but it does not tell you much about what the u.s. is doing. our view on the u.s. economy is very constructive. we have seen pickup in growth coming through on the tax cuts, but we are getting to a point where we should see the impact of the fiscal coming and much more strongly toward the latter half of this year and into next year, which should be supporting the u.s. cycle. we are not yet concerned about the outlook for u.s. growth from a fixed income point of view. i think the curve is still signaling a strong economy. , how do youvita play a flatter curve, yet the u.s. economy that is still good? savita: i'm so good diana raised the fact that the yield curve is
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artificially flattening right now. there are components of that that have nothing to do with growth that are putting pressure on the long end of the curve. it is an interesting market. more of ann obsession with the flattening of the yield curve then i've ever seen in my career. i don't think the yield curve matters that much. i'm overweight financials and financials has outperformed more than underperformed during periods of a flattening yield curve. i think that is something the market is getting wrong. lower long yields are positive for dividend growth stocks. we like areas of the market like health care, like technology. a lot of these companies that are increasing their cash payouts in an environment where yield is still scarce. the idea that the flattening yield curve is a signal you want to get out of equities is not necessarily the right way to interpret it at this point. david: diana amoa of jpmorgan
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asset management, thank you. savita subramanian, will be staying with us. it is the end of another industrial conglomerate. ceo discusses the decision to spin off their drilling operation. >> we are not planning to raise any capital. existing shareholders will on the company in the same ratio that we own it. ♪
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companiesnot a lot of with strong balance sheets, so the other possible actions involve some kind of burger, which effectively -- merger, since we would probably end up having more exposure to the drilling sector. david: we welcome our bloomberg flew columnist -- view columnist. still with us is savita subramanian, of bank of america merrill lynch. let's make sure we get the bank right this time. weredid not tell us they going to spin it off? >> yes, because they did not get the price they were hoping to sell this for. they also made interesting comments about reducing exposure to the drilling industry more than a merger would have. if you think about a different merger combination, they might have to have a larger stake in that, bigger exposure, so this is the step they believe creates most value for shareholders. david: is this special to maersk
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or is this part of a larger pattern? it feels like we go through periods of consolidation where you big up big conglomerates and then periods where you start spinning at all off? brooke: this is definitely the continuation of a trend. maersk already got rid of a lot of their oil and gas and tanker assets to read they have gotten rid of a grocery business, a banking business, this is one of the last, really old, diversified conglomerates. you see a shift toward streamlining, a need to focus. investors don't want to see if acus best business -- see business with all of its hands in all of these honeypots. different type of clothing, but it is different market, different customers, different marketing strategies. alix: specifically, offshore drilling has more to go on the cost inflation side because there is not the same demand issue as onshore.
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so, what do you do with industrials right now? savita: we just upgraded industrials to an overweight. this is probably one of the most contrarian calls we are making. lots of pushback on this. i look at the sector. record low positioning. managerrage mutual fund , this is not a sector that has a lot of buy-in. i think the critical point for industrials is when you look at ends, we arepex tr looking at a period where companies bought back their own shares or tech spent. now we are seeing to -- pick up in traditional types of capex. if you look at tech companies, energy companies are spending on building headquarters, data centers. energy companies are spending a sizable amount of money and a big uptick on.
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-- uptick on capex. when we see industrials, we think trade risk, this is global. dollar risk, it has tons of headline risk. actually fundamentals are really solid and we are seeing the first signs of a traditional capex cycle that we have seen in 10 years now. confident you feel about their ability to push through pricing? cost push. yes, i think that is the potential for margin squeeze, that is high. but, the way to combat margin pressure is by higher unit volume sales growth, and that is what we are kind of cn, that sales is actually picking up. so, even if you do get a little bit of margin compression, topline growth could offset that more than considerably. david: ok, savita subramanian of
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bank of america merrill lynch will be staying with us. brooke, thank you so much. coming up, earnings. we want to talk about a headline from turkey. an important report. turkey court rejects the release of pastor injure brunson. -- andrew brunson. this is a thing that has caused the sanctions to stay in place. in fairness, president erdogan has been saying it is up to the courts, not to me. but according to president trump, there was a deal. they had already released an israeli prisoner to turkey. alix: not a big reaction to the lira. we will update the headlines as they cross. ♪
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out. one,ean metals, that last down 1.3%. commodities get hit again today. it has been a really ugly week for aluminum, copper, and palladium. it is not a safe haven story. it is a mixed dollars story so far. i did want to highlight what is happening with the u.n. we have seen a lot of rejiggering. the curve in the u.s., 24 basis points, i'm going to call it did flat. crude off 0.8%, the worst week since 2015 in january, which was one oil hit around $26 a barrel during the winter. david: worked we talking about getting up to $80 not long ago? alix: i was starting to hear $100 calls. david: going the wrong
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direction. now time to get some news outside the business world from emma chandra. emma: thank you, david. president trump has canceled his military parade scheduled for later this year because of what he called the ridiculously high costs. the associated press reported it could cost $92 million. the military and the white house will explore opportunities for a parade in 2019, according to the pentagon. refused toourt has release a pastor at the center of deteriorating relations between the u.s. and turkey. the court rejected andrew brunson's appeals. upsident trump could end forcing angela merkel and vladimir putin to come together after years of confrontation. this weekend, they will have their first one-on-one meetings in germany in five years.
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president trump has accused germany of being controlled by russia. global news 24 hours per day on air and on twitter. i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. david. david: thanks so much. deere announced results for its third quarter this morning. falling short of expectations. revenue exceeded expectations. continueds forward to growth and demand despite trade issues. the powerful global trends of population growth and increased urbanization remain quite vibrant and are putting a positive light on the company's prospects for the future. joining us now is our bloomberg intelligence senior machinery analyst. as i say, they did pretty well on the top line, but they are struggling with the cost, perhaps.
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>> yes, that has been an issue for a number of people. given that they had 25% sales growth, people thought they would deliver more on the bottom line. they will be able to raise prices to cover the cost, but, in the short run, people did expect better incremental margins because of the level of demand. there is an overhang fear about the trade. david: to that point, what is their guidance going forward? karen: they did not change this year and they will not comment on next year, but that is going to be the question. one thing that is not a good sign is that they lowered expectations for grain prices next year a fair amount, and that drives cash income for the farmer, that drives demand. people are going to be concerned about next year. david: overall, this year, they will be up fairly healthy in terms of number of units sold in terms of revenue they are bringing in. is that replacement? karen: that is replacement. large farmers tend to replace
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equipment every three years and they really went about four years with that replacing. that is good for margins. that is another regionwide. why aren't margins better when it is the big stuff that is moving? alix: you raised the question with crop prices falling, how are farmers going to pay for deere equipment, which is very high end? karen, thank you very much. sterling smith joins us on set. he has basically covered drains for his entire life read from kansas city, missouri, americans for farmers and family spokesman. gentlemen, the chart we want to look at his farmer incomes in dollar terms. deere is tells us what up against. they have rolled over the lowest we have seen in a few years. sterling, how can they buy equipment when they are making
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less money? sterling: the situation for the farmers, this is going to be individual results. firms have gotten a lot bigger and this changes how they operate. farmers did a good job of hedging and managing risk. a lot of them got things sold earlier when prices were better for soybeans and corn. if we see continued depressed prices, the ability to do that next year won't be able to be there and you were going to replace equipment when you have to, rather than the best situation. a lot of farmers now lease their equipment. it is a three-year lease, and then it ends up somewhere else. alix: that feeds into the broader trade issue, regardless of the replacement cycle. you see that with export prices for farm goods. falling the most in years. usgressman, can you help break down what is the biggest threat for farmers? is it trade? overall crop prices? managing risk not as well for
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2019? how do they view it? >> right now, in missouri, where i'm from, north missouri, we have a lot of factors working against us, in addition to the cost. that is the weather. we have a drought going on, which causes farmers to have to fast-forward a lot of the decisions they have to make. toour operations, we have look at whether we are going to scale back the number of cows we are going to keep on the farm. we sell bulls to other customers. we have seen other farmers selloff their herds in anticipation of next year because of the uncertainty surrounding trade right now. david: that is exactly the point. even put aside how the trade thing comes out. just the uncertainty. president trump seems not in a big hurry to get it resolved. is paying farmers going to make up for that uncertainty? casey: well, we appreciate the sentiment, and we are glad we are in the thoughts of the folks of washington.
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with, we would rather pass on another entitlement that would hold us hostage to washington. we are not in the business of looking for a government check every month. we want access to markets, long-term solutions. we would rather see a strong commitment to sitting down and negotiating these differences within nafta and china. china is a growing market. , they talk to the chinese want their goods. if we have access to that down the road, we don't even need to think about money from washington. we will do just fine. david: casey, your family has been farming since 1840, the date is, in missouri, as you say. have you benefited from free trade or been hurt by some of the unfair trade practices? casey: yes, we have been farming a long time.
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and we had to leave the dairy business because of a lot of these same issues that are facing us now in the beef acrossy and other farms the midwest. i was born in 1980. i remember the 80's. there is the term the farm crunch. .armers left business one farmers leave the business, especially small to midsize guys , you don't get back in. you can't afford to spend that kind of money to get back in the business to have the salt -- this uncertainty to deal with every year to make a living. got nafta in the 1990's, we saw a real benefit to those trade negotiations. we were able to make a pretty good living.
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we are looking at a degree of certainty in uncertain times. alix: sterling, you have been nodding. sterling: it is painful what is going on in missouri. that area is experiencing drought. the rest of the country, the crop is doing magnificently. there will be more grain. that will hold prices down. if you are in an area of drought, you are going to suffer particularly. the biggest concern we have to think about is if we lose these customers, there will be someone who will step in and fill that bill and we may not get all that business back going to china or going any other places that we export where we may have an issue. alix: if president trump were here, he would probably say something like be patient. here is what he is saying to farmers about the trade dispute. president trump: we are making tremendous progress, they are all coming, they don't want to have those tariffs put on them.
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the farmers will be the biggest beneficiaries. watch. we are opening up markets. you watch what is going to happen. just be a little patient. , help patienty can you be before you have to start making different business decisions and what is on the table for you? casey: i was a trump supporter, i voted for trump. i was very excited about having a president serious about some of those important issues facing agriculture. saw a great tax reform. we have seen regulatory relief. now, then, we thought we were in the process of a renegotiated nafta. instead, we have been dealing with a euro strong uncertainty. he isi appreciate what saying, we literally only have so much time that we can afford to wait. we can't be patient forever. cows wehave one herd of
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can make money off of each year on our farms. the longer that we have to play this out, just like our dairy business, my family, you can only afford to wait so long. and i would like for there to be an eighth generation of my family farming in harrison county. it is an uncertainty right now. alix: sterling, what is the inflection point from where you said? sterling: i think we have about a year. we will see aggressive planting of soybeans and grain in brazil. we will have tons of soybeans coming out of argentina. the proof of the pudding is in the eating. to seese, we will have
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restricted acres. we need some clarification on this $12 billion president trump has offered to the farmers. we have not seen any clarification on what exactly is going to happen with this. it is not the same as it showing up because the bills to show up. , and sterling, thank you so much. coming up, as bricks and mortar adapts to growth in e-commerce, inventory pressures mount. more coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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coming up later today on "bloomberg markets," a balance of power. this is bloomberg. now to your bloomberg business flash. the nine-month long crypto gold rushes over at nvidia. sales dried up faster than expected. revenue fromrevenue from gamersa centers the estimates, still investors ditched nvidia stocks. one of the most bullish oil investors came up dry last month. they lost more than 15% in july when global oil benchmarks suffer the biggest monthly loss since 2016. the hedge fund is now in the red for the year. they have almost $1 billion under management. shares of nordstrom are rising. the recorded better quarter sales and gross margin that beat estimates.
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that is your bloomberg business flash. david? david: jcpenney came out with disappointing results for the second quarter yesterday and the company shares plummeted, dropping 27% after the company lowered its earnings forecast. the focus was on inventory pressures. the company's cfo said, "we will continue to take actions to right size or inventory, better curate our assortment, and provide a solid foundation we can build upon as we move forward." joining us now is a columbia business school director of retail studies, and the internet a strategy, which helps deal -- in turn head of strategy. good to have both of you. professor, give us a sense of what the issue is these days. i take it the retail business has changed because of fast fashion. >> the issue has always been inventory. of first step in the process
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being successful is selecting what investors want to buy. the next step on the chain of deciding how much quantity. and then where to put that quantity, whether it is distributing it to stores or distributions enters. then monitoring the behavior of that inventory across the calendars. if you don't have the right inventory to begin with, which is something that has been plaguing jcpenney, and you don't unitize your inventory properly, which they have more or less acknowledged, in that they have had excess inventory problems, you are faced with liquidation issues, which are devastating if they are outside of the normal course. alix: that is you guys come in. the whole idea is to be of to get rid of the inventory at the highest price possible. what are some retailers doing wrong? >> great question.
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taking a step back to let you know more about what we do. softwareeveloped a b2b platform that helps brands and retailers gain better visibility in their inventory position, be more proactive, and be better from initial markup to transaction. we have had the benefit of speaking to hundreds, if not thousands of retailers in the space on issues we are seeing across the board. they are dealing with excess inventory in painstakingly manual ways and highly inefficient across the board. there is room for innovation on the backend. david: at the same time, let's talk about who is doing it well, who is doing it badly. i will put a chart up here for h&m. it looks like they have a very big problem. what is wrong or what are they struggling with at h&m or jcpenney, as opposed to someone doing it really well. >> let me contrast h&m with
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zara. the both globally have thousands of stores. alix: they are both on the corner right here. prof. cohen: zara keeps knocking the cover off the ball. zara is one of the original fast fashion players in the space. h&m follows on their heels. performance ofhe their inventory better than anybody in the business anywhere in the world. h&m struggles because they do not have the operating discipline comes of the do not have the devotion to the use of technology that has emerged to do ensure that inventories say current and in line with sales. theseisodically has inventory crises. they are moving through one now. whereas, zara does not suffer from that. david: let me understand your business eliana. visit to help them going forward to make sure they don't get in
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trouble again on their inventory? >> it is sort of both. what we are trying to push for our clients is that yes, you can plan, yes, you can curate inventory to the best of your abilities, but you need to put systems in place to manage it when excess inventory arises. it will arise as a reality of the nature of retail. alix: when you say you can help on the backend, what does that do? operating margins is the blue line. profit margins are the yellow line. there is lots of room to improve. how on the backend? what are specific details you can tell us that you tell clients? >> as mark mentioned, a lot of these retailers are lacking backend systems that give them a constant pulse on real-time inventory levels. they do not have the systems that will allow them to identify inventory that is "problematic" early enough in the process. it is extending their sales process. every day that a unit of
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inventory sits in the warehouse becomes significantly less valuable. a process that centralizes the data with a snap of the finger hoursosed to taking six can provide substantial financial benefits. to be ahere seems consensus about what needs to be done. you need discipline, you need the technology to really make it work. why isn't it being done at some companies? how expensive is the technology? prof. cohen: i think this is really a cultural issue. it is old speak versus new speak. decisions inside a tight window of time. the closer you make decisions to presenting them to the customer, it makes you smarter. if you are jcpenney and you are making decisions 6-9 months in advance, you are necessarily
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less likely to be successful than zara, which is making those decision inside of 3-6 weeks in some cases. first and foremost, it is a philosophy of how we are going to manage the decisions we make. and then the technology is there to enable an organization to act upon those decisions. david: i know more about the car industry than retail. this is not a new thing. why is retail taking so long and parts of retail, to catch up? prof. cohen: for a lot of years, retail got away with murder. we stacked it high and watch it fly with the philosophy. if we put it on her fixtures, customers will shop it down to the bare fixture, then we will start to do that again the next season, except that does not work anymore. thank you so much. ku.k cohen and eliana u
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alix: what i'm watching for the week ahead. it is the second to last week of summer, but it is going to be busy. i'm looking at the minutes from the fomc meeting on wednesday, as well as jackson hole. those things are going to be busy --what i'm following. david: and whether they are listening to president trump saying, let's keep the dollar down, thank you very much. alix: what are you looking at? david: u.s. tariffs on china
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imports. china is a really big player. we will see what is going on with the talks in washington. there are reports that nafta might get resolved next week. alix: this is the $16 billion? david: that's right. they are going to keep ramping it up. in the meantime, they're going to keep coming in to talk. alix: it will be interesting to see if the markets change the headlines. david: you will be following this closely as you come back from vacation. alix: what i'm watching next week, wine, sleep, baking. that does it for "bloomberg daybreak: americas." jonathan ferro coming up next week -- next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: coming up, the president asking the sec to study quarterly earnings to ease regulations. united states pushing china later this month. a tearful elon musk telling the new york times nobody reviewed the infamous tweet. the state of play follows. this course like this. the futures negative four points. we are down 11%. -- .1%. the euro proclaiming a handle on the dollar. 286 on the u.s. 10-year. president donald trump saying he asked the securities and exchange commission to study ending quarterly reporting for u.s. businesses to ease regulations and spur growth. joining us in the white house is kevin cirilli.
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