30 minutes. bloomberg has learned that:'s expected to plead guilty for hush payments to women who claimed to have affairs with the president before he took office. :'s plea deal includes jail time. the jury asked the judge what to -- trying to reach us -- consensus on all counts. the judge told him to listen to each other but don't let -- don't surrender on his convictions. prosecutors say president trump's former campaign chairman did tens of millions of dollars and lied on loan applications to obtain millions more. the british secretary of state for international trade says he is confident the u.k. could become what he called an exporting superpower after brexit.

the goal is to raise exports of goods and services, a proportion of gdp from 35% from about 30% last year. there are many opportunities left unrealized. that is what this strategy is intended to change. it builds on the government's industrial strategy weakening exporting the norm, not the exception. working with business to give them the tools they require to unlock economic potential. mark: he believes the best outcome for all of the people in europe is that we have an open and liberal trading environment inside europe itself. in 95 former nazi concentration camp guard who lived quietly in the city for decades has arrived in german -- in germany, deported earlier today in what could be the last u.s. deportation of a world war ii suspect. the expulsion came at president

trump's urging and came 25 years after investigators first accused him of lying about his wartime past to get into the u.s. longerprocess took for a than we wanted. the remover of this individual will hopefully -- bring solace -- at the hands of the nokia regime. mark: it does not appear that there is enough evidence to charge him with work time crimes, but -- told the german newspaper then doing justice to the memory of nazi atrocities means standing by our more obligation to the victims and subsequent generations. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tick tock on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: live, i'm caroline hyde. scarlet: we're 30 minutes from the close of trading in the u.s. the s&p 500 issuing a new high earlier in the session. joe: the question is what did you miss? scarlet: the bulls are on a record run. there is a catch. wider might be more to it than meets the eye. president trump's's former lawyer, michael cohen, agrees to plead guilty for making hush payments. he appears in a federal court in new york at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. and bringing callback is what president trump promised to do since his campaign days. little improvement. we want to take a moment to formally welcome caroline hyde to our new york office.

she and her husband have moved to new york and we are pleased to have them in the new york family or just in time. caroline: i wanted more record highs in my life. it is what i needed. i got out of brexit, i have come here to your politics and finally, a real estate market that is on fire is what i really want to. clearly, that will be showing up later today. you got everything including the record high. the s&p 500 made its first record since january, marking another milestone. it is the longest bull market ever but even that title comes with all types of caveats. it is all a question of definition. we have a li na with us to break it down. i used to think a bull market is anything that is 20% or above from below. category,ll in that right? >> a good point but what about if the market is off of its highs or its lows, a bull market or a bear market?

a point oft, it is heated debate in a lot of people on wall street are talking about, is this the longest bull market ever, the second longest? it all depends on how you look at it and joe: i find it fascinating that some of the get 20%, you have to not quite there, but even still, it doesn't really mean much either way because these are just things that people made up. >> they are things that people like to talk and tweet about. tweet about it. >> absolutely. but the reality is it is not an investment strategy. forever.en since 2009. a good point is when it started in 2009, it was in the ashes. 666. we have come a pretty long way. it is something that people should pay attention to, what is going on with the economy come with earnings, with to, isturing, as opposed

this the longest or second longest bull market ever? >> we had pullbacks and i wonder if that qualifies as a bear market within or how you define that >> a lot of people i have talked to for this story say to me listen, the full backing in 2011 could be a bear market. what about 2015, 2016? the markets crashed here in the united states, stocks collapsed. the s&p did not fall just 20%. it was not below the 20% mark. >> the economy was not doing that well. is this or is this not a bear market? hereefinition, it is not are thousand 92 where we are now, we are 0.5% for a record and we are talking about the longest market ever. joe: thank you. we want to turn to today passes

action with bloomberg passes global macro strategist, cameron. he were to cool for the all-time high stuff and probably are looking at another index that made an all-time high a few weeks ago. much this yearso that could have derailed stocks, whether it is trade wars, the collapse of big tex stocks, turkey's stuff, what did it tell you that at least one index is at an all-time high? >> they pretty much all are really in a have to interject that if you were along the s&p etf, you will have noticed your account reached its all-time high couple of weeks ago because of dividends. i had to get a little jab in. i think what it tells you is andomic growth is good monetary policy is still accommodative. in that context, you do not need to be a whole lot more complicated than that of the economy is growing strongly and

earnings are growing strongly. the fed has, to date, not taken a punch bowl away. >> what i am looking at coming from the u.k. is just the outperformance, whether it be the s&p 500 that looking at the usa, how much is outperforming versus the rest of the world? ande is the quid pro quo who is losing as the u.s. continues to rally and how long are you likely to see a sustained outperformance? >> i do not like to think of it in terms of a zero sum game. it is not necessarily that the u.s. winds and someone else loses. the white house tends to think of it in those terms but the reality is a little more nuanced. it is fair to say that the u.s. outperformance is due to a couple of things. one is just the shared strength of earnings growth, and that does reflect strength of the economy but it also reflects the composition of the u.s. equity market, where stuff like technology has a relatively inher waiting than it would

europe, which tends to be a lot alsoof the industrials and financials and european financials are not faring terribly. joe: in my retirement account, i thought i was being very smart and i checked one of the diversified international baskets. so i had all-time highs today. i'm exposed to the stocks that have not gone anywhere. thisis going to be where changes? doesn't have to do with monetary policy, trade policy, what would, in theory, caused some sort of closing of the gap? ofi will do the tv technique answering the question i want to answer and not that, which is, what will bring an end to this in the u.s. equity market and i think the answer today is what it was at the end of last year, which is inflation. if we see u.s. prices -- >> we saw that violently with january and the wage numbers. >> interest rates moved up very

sharply and yes, that context at the same time as president trump is introducing trade tensions, it was a lethal cocktail for risky assets. subsequently, inflation concerns on the wage fund have receded a little bit and you could argue that the fed is continuing taking up the mantle in the yeldon fed indicating that it will put interest rates up in a sense to keep at least on the front foot, vis-a-vis inflation is actually positive on the longer run and i think mr. palat make that very argument. but it does highlight again if we do see the market become an's -- concerned about inflation, it is the single worst thing in the equity market. >> right. if you are raising rates because the economy is doing well, that would be a solid underpinning. the present -- president more frequently talking about how he does not like the stronger dollar and he sees the fed as not really supporting his agenda here.

does it become something that the fed becomes mindful of as well? help that when the president of the united states is criticizing you, it is not something you can totally ignore. i mean these people are human but i think they're also professionals and they will do what they perceive to be the right thing regardless of presidential interference. this is not turkey and let's put things in perspective. politicalhave the influence over monetary policy that we do in some other markets. that is not to say financial market operators love the idea of the president of the united states interjecting itself -- himself into the financial markets. you have seen that with the dollar today. >> yes. because we have got jpmorgan saying we have got life in this left. onhave seen that weakness

the back of the comments coming from trump. >> you have been long dollars. chances are, you have been if you are watching. say that the market broadly speaking across large ways of different operators, you have kind of had two things in the last week or so that may give you pause. obviously, trump hussey's comments yesterday but even before that, the fact that china has stepped in more forcefully, the dollar you want bull market that started on june 19 which am first introduced the extra $200 billion of tariffs, really helped kickstart the broader dollar rally. the fact that the chinese have taken more forceful steps in terms of intervening, in terms of allowing domestic liquidity conditions in the money market, to tighten pretty sharply, to take other steps in terms of closing the capital account vis-a-vis letting onshore operators land you on offshore, they are not allowed to do that

anymore. we had the requirement a few weeks ago, all of that suggests were kind ofese saying, all right. that is enough it we do not want to weaken anymore and trump said the same thing yesterday. it is a quorum, if you will. >> great perspective. thank you. cameron. we thank you. coming up in age of technology. considered obsolete? getting rises instead of getting let go? we will have details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: it was a busy day and wall street. here to break it all down, today

passes wall street beat. it is happening in london. the scaling back of headquarters. for they were making a turnaround and the fun what -- fund was starting to outperform question mark question you go to a billion dollars, you have to do it somewhere. i do not know where us they go to find the next cost cuts. maybe they have to go back to the days of relying on southside traders to entertain them. >> to be fair, they are not cutting staff right now. .uilding around the edges >> they are going after low hanging fruit. it will be nice to have. >> eating but -- >> there is an old adage that says unfair lending makes for bad traits. sure it would cut -- surely, this can't be the long-term solution.

joe: let's talk when something interesting going on the consumer side, which is that retail bank tellers, a category -- category of employment a lot of people would think would be growing obsolete with online banking, they are commanding higher wages these days. >> it is a thing i found out today, about half a million jobs. you guys but about what i'm talking to my phone company or the cable company, i cannot wait for the option that says -- get toam it as soon as i the menu. >> that is the factor in play. especially when dealing with money, you want that level of comfort. maybe the jobs are not going away and it is certainly involving. the best way to make it a critical portion of the bank force -- >> one was the entire point of the robot, to get people's attention. >> right. that was the best one.

so you haveucement it ready, but then the robot guides you toward a human being. i am not worried about that robot. customerto up sell a and install them on higher-margin businesses. that is kind of what they are as well. they will give retail clients give andes to opportunity to buy other services. >> there is a little bit of a principal at play here. .ook them up early legacy banks have a captive audience. what can we do to make sure that she -- stay within the ecosystem? offer them services and hope you get more business out of them. they are already very cheap so there are places that are like 495. do people expect there to be a big flood from people trying to

get away from five dollar commissions? isthe competitive mode shrinking at technology shows that matches banks but a lot of people out there can offer these services. clearly, just like in the etf world, where we will went down to zero, that is happening here. you get 100 free trades but there is an opportunity for unlimited free training -- trading. >> they will never understand the power of free for anyone even if it is saving five dollars. joe: the amount of time i have seen people waste their time in line for a free beer. >> all right. thank you so much for today passes wall street beat. fors head to romain bostick -- romaine bostick for the stock of the hour. a record high after first-quarter results that beat estimates. moving in the s&p doesn't

really tell the story when you are talking about earnings. the underlying issue is the company has always been known for heart valves and some pain medication devices. ont investors really focused in the most recent quarter was one of their smallest units, diabetes, which grew about 26% because of a new device they had that basically acts like an artificial pancreas. there is a lot to feel optimism that this product is sort of up and running and gaining sales, this will be the future of the company. >> it took a long time to get to market. >> yes. it was approved in 2016 and they were not actually ready to really bump these out. it took about two years dealing with supply issues and get insurers to cover the cost. they finally have seemed to work that out this year. 26% is why you see the stock rise today. >> $98.

>> the price targeted not really nudge up to 95 a couple of weeks ago. even though most analysts were very bullish, going up two or three dollars on the average think itget shows they might be near the top. a lot of analysts are saying this diabetes device except more steam heading into 2019 and then you can see a little more action in the stock. >> the biggest one-day gain since november of 20 -- 2009. thank you so much. is a housing there slowdown, the buyers do not care whole lot we will look at why toll brothers is surging today. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: toll brothers up over 10% in the third quarter.

let's bring in a bloomberg real estate reporter in boston. talk to us about what is really driving the increase in revenue, increase in bookings overall? is it forward-looking or is it a backdated measure of how well the company is doing? >> well, you know, the company is doing well. this is a solid result. even if you look at the forward-looking number, builders are up 7%, which is pretty good. theas good as may be company was doing a year ago, but, you know, it is the deliveries that were really strong, and the revenues which rose 27%, which is backward looking. takes nine months to 18 months to build. you can imagine the world was different back then when people were signing the contract. >> homebuilder stocks have had a horrendous year.

toll itself was down nearly 30% from its high before today. the rally a sign that some fears are overblown, and can told be read into other homebuilder stocks or because it is luxury, it does not necessarily have the same read through? >> toll is the largest luxury dr does a lot of entry-level for there is no real comparison. they are very different audiences. there is i think relief out in my -- amongst investors. i think that is what you are seeing with the surge in prices. there was a belief that the downy market was slowing and maybe the housing market in general was slowing down. and this was a welcome surprise. i think there was some of that. is hard to know whether, you know, there are signs here, that

you might be a little concerned about. california, sales are down a bit . so there is that. scarlet: let's talk a little more about that. anything in real estate and housing is locally driven. what is the read on the california situation versus elsewhere in the country? >> right. so california, you know, i inc. there is an affordability issue. facing apeople are steady increase in prices that are way outpacing incomes. in you have the increase mortgage rates over the last six months. that has really hurt sales even on an existing marketing california. so you can see it is a lot more extreme than in other markets but even in other luxury markets, there is a bit of a slowdown in new york and places like that. >> all right. thank you so much.

rising to the highest level since june of 2018 p are we are keeping an eye on president trump as his attorney, michael cohen. a live shot of the manhattan courthouse, federal courthouse in downtown -- downtown manhattan. he is expected to appear at 4:00 p.m. this is bloomberg. ♪

[applause]

scarlet: "what'd you miss?" with the s&p 500 touching a on its highs level since then you are a. on caroline hyde. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. welcome to our closing bell coverage. scarlet: we begin with the market minutes. the s&p 500 made an all-time high during the session today did not hold that high. it has closed about a 51%. joe: but it still counts -- a fifth of 1%. joe: but it still counts. scarlet: it still counts. defensive sectors and others are finishing in the red. stocks likey retailers, homebuilders, automakers, finishing is the best performers a by 9/10 of 1%. let's get to some individual movers. we will start with consumer imes because t.j. maxx,

should say the parent company, that comparable sales three times more than what analysts had been looking for which boosted the shares. the biggest u.s. luxury homebuilder reported revenue and backlog. coty, the cosmetics company saw a 3.4% decline in consumer trucker because of the strike in brazil and supply chain disruption. the stock closed by better than 7% off. jpmorgan is rolling out the new platform that includes free research and trading to retail customers. that put pressure on the likes of e*trade and others. joe: a quick look at the government bomb market -- bond market. nothing too dramatic. 10 year yield has not gone anywhere in a while.

2.4%. caroline: kicking off currencies, check out what is happening with the u.s. dollar. it has been a down day. comments are still spilling over from this time yesterday when complaininglling -- about the overall fed policy. it seems that maybe the trade tensions could be dull back a little bit with chinese hopes. look at the chinese currency there. michelle bonnier, the progression of us -- aggression in brussels, etc. fair reporting about the currency manipulations saying the market decides the exchange it, -- exchange rate, mr. trump. the ruble is having a down day. 4/10 of 1% lower.

joe: finally, commodities are green across the board. nothing too dramatic. , i gaining 1.4% in gold think that is two days in a row for gold. $400 -- $1200! joe: those are today's market minutes. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" michael is due to -- cohen is due to be in court and he has reached a plea deal that does not include cooperation with the authorities. for more, let's welcome greg cirilli, seth with andnd an berkeley ann berkeley with jeffrey kramer. not -- we known about

this for at least two hours. we've done drafts about what will happen in well not happen. what are we likely to learn officially when he appears before the judge? >> we will learn the specific crimes he is pleading guilty to. our reporting shows that as well. thatve matched others involves campaign-finance violations and not bank fraud, but tax and finance the regulatory's -- finance a regular terry's --irregularities in well -- as well. >> they try to distance themselves with michael cohen. we should note how close he is to the former candidate and private citizen, donald trump. this was someone deeply engulfed in the trump organization.

vastne who has a deep and knowledge of the understanding of how the trump organization operates. now, we should note reportedly for what he is pleading guilty to, the campaign-finance violation in particularly. particularly with the hush money payment with stormy daniels and mcdougal. shouldld's take -- we take a step back. the jury is still the liberating on paul manafort as well. that is the former vice chairman to the president. isoline: michael cohen appearing in the manhattan federal court as we speak and i want to get a take about the cooperation or lack of that he has not and is unlikely to cooperate with the u.s.. what does that mean for trump going forward and for what he might face in terms of jail sentence? unusual for a person to enter into a plea

agreement like this in a situation like mr. cohen is and not have a full cooperation agreement in place. it could be that he is entering in a plea agreement with good faith that, down the line somewhere, if the government is ready, they would enter into an agreement to reduce his sentence if he is truthful and all matters is questioned and. it is unusual --questioned in. it is unusual to not have a plea deal. scarlet: what if michael cohen johnson without that's cooperation? since it is so unusual, does he have any leverage? >> he gets what's called acceptance of responsibility. he made it easier for the government, less money the government has to spend to try him and that could be considered in a judge for a sentence. but, they are right, you don't see this often. there could be something down

the line or something he is going to plead blind and get acceptance of her -- acceptance of responsibility. hopefully the president will give him consideration down the line. waiting fore are the press conference outside of the courthouse. any sense of how much detail they would be inclined to give or could this be the kind of thing where someone walks out and says basically what the headlines are in walk away? >> i think everyone will be focused -- i'm not sure anyone cares about michael's taxis business right now. the payment, stormy daniels, potential campaign violation which is a literal sexy story and will have legal implications for the president. i think that is what will be turn -- what everyone will be tuned into. typical in terms of the thing here of a press conference after a plea deal, with a expect a lot of detail or be inclined -- >> they would hold it. the press is smart about this,

so there will be detail, and a few tell, that there will be -- co-conspirators involved and leave it to our imagination. caroline: kevin, give us the bird's eye perspective. i'm looking at the global market watching this and he mentioned manafort read what does this mean for president trump at the moment? >> he is headed to west virginia later this evening where he will -- carlton.lson this is the first time we expect here from the president himself following this plea deal from michael cohen. the second point i would make is the senior administration officials earlier this afternoon announced the president will hit the campaign trail ahead of the midterm 40 days, 40 days on the road ahead of the midterm election. ambitious and

aggressive political strategy from the president ahead of the midterm election. finally, i would note, the epa walked back in regulations that we saw that we will see much more commentary regards to the policy fund. to your point, the last point i positione is that the and pauling to jail manafort, the jury still deliberating, -- caroline: just to jump in there, the jury is submitting another piece of information for the case. scarlet: seth, turning over to you, when we look at what will , isen with michael cohen there any way to tell how much prison time someone to get or a campaign violation or bank fraud, or tax fraud? these different charges that he is presumably going to plead

guilty to. >> there are maximum penalties but a judge will not set him anywhere near the maximum. there are sentencing guidelines. there's a complex set of regulations in the prosecutor -- regulations that the prosecutors go through. tax front and think probably are much more serious violations. in large part, they are tied to the amount of money at issue. if it is $20 million in bank fraud that mr. cohen is pleading to, that could be a huge number under the sentencing guidelines. anywhere from 10 to 15 years of a sentencing guideline range. there is no parole in the federal system. he could serve about 85% assuming good time. the campaign-finance violations are much less serious offensive and may have a one to three here type of range involved. those of the crimes that may come closer to the president. the decisiono has

to stack the sentences on top of each other or run them concurrent together so he does not have to serve time over on top of each one of the individual crimes. that is a decision the judge has to make. caroline: there's no immediate corporation, what is president trump have to be concerned about from today? >> today, nothing as far as mr. cohen is concerned. we will see in respect to mr. manafort if there is a guilty verdict there. he has a finite. of time -- finite period of time to cooperate. we saw a delayed a venting for general flynn -- with cohen, as well as seeing eight delayed offensive for general flynn. joe: i want to ask you along the same lines. obviously, this is in the southern district and kind of separate from the mueller investigation and the manafort

part of it. is there an easier play between this and mueller. >> it is separate, however, any information or anything that cohen officially does, they share information and that can go to mueller. there was a determination that most of the stuff most obvious about cohen was appropriate for new york. however, if after this is announced today, the next step is that cohen wants to offer something up to the prosecutors here. that would go to mueller. scarlet: we might be in the beginning of a long process. we are unclear on what happens next. jeff, there was five months between michael's offices in the charges. charges -- where are we in this process? >> it is pretty fast. there are some districts that

are quicker than others. the southern district moves with paste on this one. it was a pretty finite number of facts. and got a set of documents account themselves are not that hard to put together. the campaign-finance one was discreet, bank fraud, a prosecutor put that together regularly. the tax count that. happy year is still moving pretty quickly. caroline: we are expecting to see trump on the road today, will we expect them to respond to anything? >> over just getting words crossing the terminal that michael cohen has arrived at court and is sitting in the front row at the federal courthouse. senior officials from the fbi and u.s. attorney's office are sitting in the front row. i want to note congressional reaction that is beginning to pour in including from one congressman, a democrat from texas, mentioning the pardoning

word and raising the question about perhaps michael cohen not saying he will fully cooperate he is mayrobe because be signaling to the administration he would anticipate a pardon. that is speculation coming from joaquin castro. caroline: thanks to all of our guests. you are all sticking with us. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

mark: i am mark crumpton with first word news. as we have been reporting this afternoon, president trump's longtime lawyer michael: is in federal court in manhattan --michael cohen is in federal

court in manhattan and expected to plead guilty to women to have had affairs with the president before they took office. cohen's plea deal includes jail time. he has been under investigation for possible fraud. for the second time today, the jury on the paul manafort trial has submitted a note to the court. jurist asked the court -- yours rs as theurt -- juro court what they should do if they cannot agree? prosecutors say president trump's former campaign chairman hit tens of millions in foreign income and lied on loan applications to obtain billions more. -- european union in britain and britain say they will accelerate talks to bridge important differences in the effort to celia d -- feel the agreement before the end of the year. michelle margay says both sides

have "agreed that both sides will negotiate continuously from now on." her british counterpart said both sides are pragmatic and he said "i'm confidence we can reach the agreement in october." the british secretary of state today spoke about brexit and said he is confident the u.k. could become an exporting superpower. i am mark crumpton. that is your first word news. news.t: we have breaking michael cohen has pleaded guilty according to the lawyer who told judge he had pleaded guilty. we're waiting to find out which charges he is pleading guilty to. this is something we have been reporting for the last two hours. what we are told according to reporting, he is not judge he h. cooperating as part of the plea agreement, but we find out more as the story develops.

let's bring back in our panel of guests. with jeffrey kramer, kevin's cirilli, andin others. i've been looking at the bloomberg and we have been life blogging. live what do you see caroline? hasline: michael cohen pleaded guilty to eight counts. we're starting to get more of a breakdown. now that we know he is pleading guilty to eight different counts, if as kevin mentioned, the pardon is being , with theund here president need to pardon him on each different count or grants a blanket pardon? >> he would have to address each account on pardon him on each count. if president trump were to what we know in

the public atmosphere, mr. cohen information that would threaten the president. the president can pardon the individual under the constitution, but it does not mean he cannot suffer ramifications from taken a step like that like an impeachment proceeding. to pardon mr. manafort or mr. cohen after a conviction or he may have criminal exposure himself would really be tantamount to obstruction of justice in my mind. joe: jeffrey, is that your read as well with this the reticle trump pardon? >> i think the argument can be made that way -- with the theoretical trump pardon? >> i think the argument can be made that way. all of this goes into mr.

mueller's report to congress. you have very salient points to why mr.: was pardoned -- mr. cohen was pardoned or manafort was pardoned and it makes a compelling argument. mr. cohen did not do this because he was having an affair, it is because mr. trump was. it gives congress good arguments to pursue impeachment. joe: kevin, it is funny we are talking about theoretical pardons, but trump has not done anything like that yet. people keep speculating is he going to fire mueller or fire sessions and use that as an opportunity to fire mueller. people have been debating for months and months. he is not really touched her a any investigations on him directly. is not really touched any

investigations on him directly. >> if you look at polling, it would suggest the basis party is very much behind trump. seven out of 10 republicans still believe the president when he says the special counsel is " a witchhunt." that is coming directly from the president himself. the second point i would make, right behind me, president trump thatssed reporters saying he was defending paul manafort and called it a sad day to see what is happening to him. that was the last time we have manafort address paul and retreating that -- retreating michael cohen refuting opposed. you have seen him weigh in on paul manafort and michael cohen. would make ist i that we are going to see

specifically what michael cohen please guilty to and in those documents, whatever one has excellently pointed out, should he name president trump in any pleads, that would be a remarkable news primary source of information for the special counter -- council to look over. scarlet: and that would be information shared between the two teams. i'm looking at a headline that michael cohen told the judge he would want to plead guilty. the lawyer said he would plead guilty and he would plead to a counts pursuing to the plea deal. michael cohen himself had told the judge he wanted to plead guilty. caroline: i've also got a new headline on the metaphor case because the jury has reached a verdict. when it rains it pours with these things. the manafort jury cannot reach a verdict on 10 counts. tell us how difficult

the deliberations would have reach athey could verdict and they cannot reach a verdict on 10 counts. >> so you are saying they have reached a verdict on eight counts but not 10? caroline: the metaphor jury -- have not reached a verdict on 10 counts but have reached a verdict in the case. give us a sense of how difficult the deliberations might have been throughout this and we will bring you the breaking news as we get it. >> jury deliberations can be very heated. there's a lot of passion, a lot of strong opinions, but that is the way our system is set up. in my experience, juries get it right more often than not. this afternoon, there was a note that they were hung on more than one count. it seems they have worked it out or that there is a partial verdict that we're hearing now. the judgment not take that to verdict. i do not think you will.

he will say continue deliberations on tilly -- until you can really each -- until you can reach a deliberation or until you have exhausted your efforts. they could be instructed to go back and continue with the notion that there are several convictions or quintals, that is a defining moment in the proceedings. scarlet: let me jump in. we have clarification that paul manafort faced 18 counts. it seems like there was a partial verdict because the jury has reached a verdict overall. joe: jeffrey, we do not know which way these verdicts on the eight counts are going, but i'm curious from the perspective of a prosecutor, this is very politically charged stuff and we live in a time where people of different political persuasions can frequently agree on a common

amount of facts. how difficult is it to prosecute a case like this when so much of this could be so polarizing? >> that is a fair point. you try to divorce yourself from the politics and atmosphere. that usually does happen. once you get into evidence, the jury is looking at it. who they voted for and what their political beliefs might be our kind of removed and they focus on the actual evidence. in this case in particular, it was a pretty straightforward case. i've been on trials that have lasted four to five months where the jury has been out weeks and weeks. this is easy. they have been out a few days and did not agree on some counts which is normal. it is up to the judge to take the partial verdict or ask them if future deliberations will be beneficial and they will come back with a yes or no. at some point, the judge will take the verdict. scarlet: we are following the metaphor jury releasing a

verdict in it case even though it is a partial verdict. meantime, in new york, we hear michael cohen has told the does she wants to plead guilty. washington, who or what team our case is president trump more worried about? case or theafort michael cohen case? >> the fact that this is a logical question i think shows just how severe this is. this is the president's longtime fixer, michael cohen, who is just at the trump hotel with members of his family talking to members of the inner circle. just to see the complete reversal in that. scarlet: kevin, let me jump in because we are getting details on the charges michael cohen has been charged with. he is being charged with evading personal income tax, unlawful corporate campaign contribution,

and a false statement to financial institutions. ofknew there was some realm bank fraud, tax fraud, and campaign finance. specifically the charges are evading personal income tax, unlawful corporation campaign contribution, and a full statement of financial institutions. and, excessive campaign contribution in october 2016? does that unlike a payment to you, kevin? >> that particular charge, yes. i'm getting these details just as you are. that charge relates -- could relate, i want to be clear here with regard to the stormy daniels allegation and the payment. that is seemingly where we are headed with that. joe: sets, we do not know which way the verdict will go in paul manafort yet. in theory, suppose you were to be found guilty on some charges,

perhaps more than what we have right now, could there be cooperation between verdict and sentencing? >> absolutely. there is something called rule 35 that allows the judge to reduce appurtenance -- reduce a person sentence and allows the government to cooperate post sentencings for at least a year. it has been my opinion that the while righteous charges on their own and independent cases, in large part, that has been done to flip mr. manafort. he will have that opportunity and is the prosecutions help -- prosecution's hope that he will be able to be brought in as a coordinator. caroline: talk to us about going forward with the jury. we know the judge's tough talking on them throughout the deliberation and it has been a

difficult set of deliberations knowing they have not been able to take a view on 10 of them. what you think of the repercussion for juries going forward? do you think they will be looking at how they came to these decisions and questioning on it? >> i do not think there will be any grander scheme of things coming forward with respect to react -- jurors react. it's hard to look at this case because of all the atmospheric factors. i don't think there is any lessons to be learned from a jury on this one. they came to a partial verdict and that is happening a dozen times this week in different courtrooms state and federally. fors not that unusual, but the fact that mr. manafort worked for mr. trump or several months. scarlet: what happens next when it comes to the manafort jury? it reaches a verdict in the case, but there is a lag here between reaching a verdict and

sentencing, if anything. be crucial will the reaction at this point or is that out of the picture? >> the criminal procedure matter, after a conviction, there is 60 or 90 days past between that point in time and a sentencing. during that, court employees thesee information and things happen every day across the country. but the president may do could be a pardon, weigh in on this particular case one way or another. that may happen in a pardon is an extract or that could change things. the president timing and will not have a whole lot of impact during the 60 or 90 days. senting things -- sentencings to be put off for any reason. ultimately, he would be sentenced by judge. unless there is a pardon or he could cooperate which may change things as well. this is an expert

very day with two people who are incredibly close to the president both being in court at different times. it is an extraordinary day for news. this president is the master or changing the story and the master of distraction. what will it be? bet are we all going to talking about tomorrow the trump will have everyone scurrying for? >> we're going to hear from him. he is literally in route where he is going to be addressing and talking about what was supposed to be a policy speech or policy campaign about the regulatory environmental protection standards. now, it becomes the first time we will be hearing him since a part of -- partial verdict has been reached in paul manafort's case or michael cohen pleads guilty with details we are just getting from that side. whether he takes that had on, we do not know. i would note the political applications for this and there have been republicans advocating

for this. i interviewed senator kennedy made the case that they want to see more policy with regard to russian sanctions because of what is going on in the midterms. whether or not you have republicans joining the critics who have been very critical to the administration with regards to the democratic party, we will have to wait and see. i cannot stress this point enough, what new information will we get in the primary source material that we are about to receive from michael: -- from michael cohen's plea deal. scarlet: that's a good point. let's bring in greg. what information are we likely to get and how quickly can we get it? the primary information kevin was mentioning? >> there will be lots of detail on charges he is pleading guilty to including campaign finance violation. presumably, someone will be identified as co-conspirator one or two.

some people might presume is the president or a key person. on the manafort case, we have a guilty plea, but what we do not know yet until the jury comes in our which eight counts. the real separation -- are which eight counts. thateal separation is whether they are concurrent orting things -- sentencings otherwise. becca make a difference on how the president's response to it. if it is not bank fraud or the case that we did not properly account for his foreign tax account, these are the types of things president has denigrated or minimized as not real crimes in other commentary. the president has pardoned a lot of people so far, particularly this year, for other white-collar crimes and has a habit of diminishing the significance of certain white-collar crimes. it will be important to see where the conviction is.

joe: to be clear, there is 18 counts, no verdict on 10. what is the split between how many are bank fraud and how many are taxes? >> off the top of my head, i it is six on bank fraud charges. of former mix reporting, tax violations, and bank fraud charges. the a's could be a bit of some or not the latter. joe: seth, -- the eight could be a bit of some or not the letter. joe: seth, let's go back to one of the few household names in law, someone who has historically been associated with the clinton world, i know you will want to speculate at some point whether he will cooperate. would someone -- would you bring in someone of lenny's caliber --

lanny's caliber? >> the team that mr.: -- mr. cohen has put together are very experienced lawyers. the notion he is walking in pleading to significant number of accounts with no potential benefit somewhere either now or downline would be very surprising to me. this is really unusual. typically these sorts of things are worked out entirely and called local please or please -- eads -- local pleads for pleads. sat down and told prosecutors what they know or is the prosecution waiting? even if they do not want to use mr. cohen as a witness -- >> scarlet: we have a headline here but there's a mistrial on 10 counts and paul manafort is found guilty on at least one count was a verdict. a mistrial on 10 counts out of 18 in this fraud trial.

paul manafort is found guilty on at least one count. caroline: kevin, the fact we saw paul manafort in this trial as the first of robert mueller's and that paul manafort is found guilty on at least one count, but does that mean? >> we don't know which charge that is and we will be waiting eagerly. i also want to read now a statement that we've gotten from the senate intelligence committee. this coming from a republican senator and senator mark warner, a democrat. they are following closely the michael cohen case. they say what we can say is we recently reengaged with mr. cohen and his team following press reports that suggested he had advanced the knowledge of the june 2016 meeting with campaign officials in russian attorneys at empower. they go on -- at trump tower. big want to say he stands by his testimony, michael cohen's original testimony and they hope the developments in the plea agreement will not preclude his

appearance before our committee as needed for our ongoing investigation. , andlicans are now democrats from the senate intelligence committee, putting this out saying he could still testify before congress. caroline: we have more breaking details, manafort is found guilty on all five tax four counts it would seem -- tax fraud counts it would seem. we are starting to get the details leaking out and kevin, you are still hearing from other lawmakers as we speak? >> yes. has emergedng that as the top committee and the senate is investigating a bunch of different investigations going on in new york and the federal prosecution as well. and others might have to testify publicly on capitol hill. scarlet: let me jump in here. we learned as well that paul manafort was found guilty on two counts of bank fraud. rapid all -- wrapping it all up,

and greg i will come to you, onefort found guilty on not fillinglty on out paperwork correctly. what about these one or two counts which he is not found guilty? >> mistrial means he can be retried on that. i don't think manafort will be facing a different trial in washington. next month, they won't be overly worked up about this. that thething is that conviction in the bank fraud accusations is a victory. scarlet: michael cohen's sentencing guidelines call for 46 to 63 months. this is just one headline crossing on michael cohen's sentencing.

that does not necessarily mean jeff, that it will be 43 to 63 months. there's a lot of room to bring that down. >> correct. historically they were confined into that box but this judge can go down as far as they feel necessary. certainly, there may be input from the prosecutors. they will give the pros and cons and leave it up to the judge. he is not locked into anything. joe: jeffrey, based on your read on manafort, the mix of guilty verdicts between the tax fraud and base fraud -- bank fraud, what is your general assessment of the results? >> if you were a prosecutor, you are smiling and you have done your job. the fact that there were a handful of counts that the jury could not agree to is fine. -- itl be interesting

would be interesting if there was a close verdict or if it was one or two holdouts. all of the evidence still gets assumed into the sentencing. if you are mr. manafort, a 69-year-old man, you're looking at double digits in prison. for him, this is probably the worst day of his life. that, thatr point to is the way this was handled. there were questions that may be manafort can offer to cooperate. he put the government through a trial, expended government resources to try to get a conviction so cohen, in contrast, he came in and pleaded. even though they are not linked, cohen will be the beneficiary of not putting the government do that to that great expense of time and energy and money. there will be some benefits for him that there once before manafort. caroline: let's go back to you in the manafort trial in particular found lt on all five tax fraud counts. -- found guilty on all five tax

four counts. rulings make of these and the way in which they have come to be? >> i do not think you can consider this anything but a sweeping victory for the prosecution. it is not all caps, that if you get someone on several tax evasion charges and bank fraud charges, those are 20 and 30 year offense is max under the sentencing guidelines. i grew jeff, he is definitely looking at double-digit sentencing jail time. if the judge were to step those criminal convictions, it could be upwards of close to 19 to 20 plus years. this is a sweeping victory for the government puts mr. manafort in a box. toonly have two ways out essentially spend the rest of his life in jail is the pardon and to cooperate. we don't know if either of those things will happen. caroline: cooperation would mean what's in your mind? >> walking into the prosecutors office saying you got me, i need

to deal. in my mind, they will give him a deal. it won't be anywhere near what it would have been if there had not been a trial. kushner, don jr., and had someone on the inside of the meeting saying what to lace and potentially with the conversations look like before, during, and after the meeting, it seems to be a very important part to mr. miller's -- mr. mueller's investigation. the government won't like that they were put to their paces but they will still use them to the full extent they can, in my opinion. >> furthermore, they have rick gates already in their pocket. he testified in the metaphor tile -- in the manafort trial. but, he was not in the meeting and the meeting as well as a possibly a few other meetings would make it worth their while to cut a deal. scarlet: let me jump in because

we have more headlines on michael cohen. let's switch gears to that situation. he is at the courthouse in lower manhattan. he said he violated a campaign candidthe direction of a -- candidate, but he does not in the candidate. candidate whohe directed the campaign. caroline: wow. >> that's remarkable. i apologize were jumping in, but the specific wording here is the direction of a candidate. that of course will be scrutinized. many people will say and push for michael cohen to name specifically food that is. did candidate donald trump instruct michael cohen to move the money with regard to this payment. if that is the case, that presents a massive problem for president trump.

that now is the key question regarding the michael cohen plea deal. paidet: just to add, cohen $130,000 and was later repaid by a candidate to is not named. ie: i don't need to be -- don't mean to be done, is there another theoretical candidate? >> clinton? she wouldn't have paid it. think that is the logical question and a fair question. i think that really, truly becomes the question. specifically, is that candidate specifically is there documentation or evidence that would support that. he has pleaded guilty to that. caroline: we're hearing that cohen acted for the purposes of influencing the selection. this is quite sensational. >> it is remarkable. to influence the election.

again, i would note how important the words become in these primary source materials. as you just read, to influence was the motive and intent. prevent this payment to a negative type of story from being made public that would impact the outcome of the election. -- that he was instructed to do so by a candidate. i want to note that michael cohen said, reportedly, said he did not have tape of that particular conversation. you will remember the case when it first came out, he did not have tape of donald trump instructing him to do so. is there evidence to suggest that candidate, donald trump, did in fact instruct michael 's longtime attorney and fixer to make that payment for

the intent of influencing the election as he had pleaded guilty to now to prosecutors. joe: greg, what does it mean for the unnamed candidate of the headline? scarlet: singular. candidate. joe: what would it mean for an unnamed candidate? >> there are two parts. the technical, legal problem that that candidates my face, and that john edwards faced a few years ago. edwards was not convicted on that. it is not necessarily a damning as kevin pointed out, it is a big political problem. there is a legal problem with this which is not like a nuclear bomb size problem, but there is a political issue that is much larger. caroline: is it nuclear bomb of oil? >> -- bomb level? caroline: no.

i think that would be russia -- >> no, i think that would be russia. i think it is a big problem, but robert mueller's job is to find an example of overt russian interference with the trump campaign officials. idea.s still the ultimate scarlet: jeff, talk about what this means for the unnamed candidate that michael cohen said he acted for the purpose of influencing the connection -- the election. >> there are two buckets. one political, and one legal. the political ramifications is that everyone would be guessing and he might be guessing wrong. nothing seems to bother this president and that's maybe under that umbrella. with the second respect to legal, it is the most important information we have had to date. musingsere has been

from: influencing the election, now we have it from him himself influencing cohen the election, now we have it from him himself. is this the worst crime ever? absolutely not. does it feed into the mueller investigation on what might go on report? yes, but it stops there. that is all it is. it has nothing to do with russia, melissa primary target -- mueller's primary target. this may be going away with history if it is not that important with respect to congress. joe: amid all of this, i want to point out that we are seeing a little bit of selloff in after-hours futures. here's a chart of s&p futures and you can see it is sliding to the lows of the day. to whatever extent, markets are not crazy about the prospect of all of the political dramas

towards people so close to the president. we see a little selling. nothing huge. scarlet: also in dollar-yen you see it. the dollar lost strength versus the japanese yen. you are seeing the dollar lose momentum here as we get more details of the: -- the cohen case. caroline: from the global perspective, this is what the repercussions are. these are why court cases are so important. this is global ramifications and whether or not there might indeed be some your reticle impeachment. jeff, going back to you, you were talking about whether there might be your reticle elements to that -- theoretical elements to that. what are the ramifications for president trump? >> this is one section of the report. it is pretty constrained, deals with campaign finance and not russia or hacking. it is not also dealing with the meeting at trump tower etc.

it is part of the report. does it push congress over the edge? not by itself. it needs to have something else so that something else is manafort. drama is the right word for it. the obama years were state compared to what we have seen in the last few hours -- stayed compared to what we have seen in the last few hours, unfortunately. sentences are very difficult for prosecutors that have been in there for a while and this is no exception. what's, prosecutors have to do what they have to do including squeezing mr. manafort for everything he knows. scarlet: just to jump in with another headline, the judge in the michael: case has accepted -- and the michael cohen case, he is accepted the plea deal -- pleads.-

joe: we have been perplexed of this unnamed candidate on behalf some of these actions michael cohen took. is there reason formally white may not be inclined to name the unnamed candidate even though lots of people will jump to assumptions on who that might be? >> there is a department of justice policy that says in court documents you do not name people in the documents that are not being charged. unindicted co-conspirator candidate number a, person number ask, company b. that is because we do not want to impugn people for charges they have not been found responsible for. in other words, probable cause from a grand jury has not been found. use monikers like that to protect the reputation and name of able will not been officially charged. with that said, was the candidate we are talking about? it can pretty much be no one else but mr. trump. ast will become obvious

we've seen the documents and the circumstances surrounding these transfers of funds. caroline: is all pardoning out of the window? it has to be a direct line to one candidate being trump. >> correct. i helped cover the eliot spitzer news 10 years ago which was referred to first and he was referred to as client number nine. there is very's depths -- various depths. is theday, michael cohen one pleading guilty and the one who is named and other people are referred to as monikers. caroline: meanwhile, michael cohen will have sentencing set for december the 12th. scarlet: it's mind-boggling the headlines crossing over the last two hours. if we recap everything, starting with paul manafort, the jury

reached a verdict in the christ's -- in the case but it was a partial manafort because he was found guilty on all five two-- tax fraud counts, counts of bank fraud, and there was a mistrial on 10 counts. as greg made clear, this is a victory for the prosecution. >> they have a conviction on a counts. caroline: is cohen of victory if it clearly means canada trump? >>: is a victory to -- >> cohen is a victory to. cohen decided to not fight this. they had everything once they rated his apartment and his office. they had everything. there was no way out. joe: kevin, the white house has been urging publicly, on twitter through rudy giuliani on cable news, for mueller to wrap it up.

we have been hearing that for a while. the events of today, do they change that? does this mean we are still in the early innings of the most story -- the mueller story? >> as the reports have been coming out, the emergence of rhetoric coming from democrats, people like senator mark warner saying any efforts to pardon paul manafort or michael cohen would be the wrong decision and would be something that they would not suggest for president trump. i've not been able to find any comments coming from republicans. we are set to hear from president trump himself later this evening in just about two hours where the president will address supporters in west virginia on what was supposed to be dubbed as an energy, policy speech. whether or not he goes off script, we will have to wait and see. with respect to political

implications, i think you touched on an important point, joe. that is that the vast majority of republicans in the base according to polls would suggest they still very much stand by this president in terms of his criticism of the special counsel as being a witch hunt. clearly, three out of 10 republicans on the latest poll would suggest they do not believe it is a witch hunt. scarlet: let me bring in our reporter -- our u.s. legal reporter joining us now from the courthouse in alexandria, virginia. david is there. david, we heard the metaphor judge has released the jury for the last time. give us a summary once again of what happened today at the manna for trial. david: paul manafort was convicted today of five counts of tax fraud, one count of failing to file a foreign bank account report, and two counts of bank fraud. that is eight of the 18 counts

in the indictment. on the other 10 counts, which include account of bank fraud conspiracy, the judge declared a mistrial. inafort returned to custody the jail here in alexandria, virginia, because he faces a second trial on september 17 in washington on money-laundering charges as well as obstruction of justice and failing to file as a foreign agent. he faces several years in prison. it is hard to say how many, but this is clearly a win for the team of special counsel robert for theand the defeat defense. they were able to whittle down some of the charges, but he is facing several years in prison and is now a convicted felon. joe: david, is there going to be a whole new trial for manafort assuming he faces perhaps decades in prison, do they do

the whole thing over again? david: that's not really clear whether they are going to go through with the second trial. they certainly intend to have his moment, but they have not stated otherwise. they have to analyze the options. the judge is also getting them until the end of august -- giving them until the end of august to retry the 10 counts for which he declared a mistrial. the erratically, manafort could face a third trial which seems pretty unlikely. it appears the government has achieved their goals with the series of convictions today. up, can: just to follow you give us a perspective of what this means for the special investigations robert mueller going forward? david: this was the first case to go to trial for special counsel robert mueller, so it was his first courtroom test in which the witnesses were cross-examined and evidence was subject to public scrutiny.

mueller had previously charged 32 people, including manafort. so this was the first time a jury has judgment on the defendant charged by robert mueller. . >> in addition, this was not a cakewalk. the judge put up obstacles over the past few weeks for the prosecution. this was not an easy case, was it, david? david: it was a difficult courtroom fight. lawyering oning -- both sides. manafort had excellent and lawyers -- excellent lawyers and the jury believed them on the majority of counts. the judge also issued a number of rulings that tended to favor the defense and had a general courtroom demeanor that was more favorable to the defense than the prosecutors.

in the end, the prosecutors assembled a powerful case and the jury agreed with him. it would have to be seen as a victory for mueller. scarlet: i want to bring jeff back in here, the formal federal prosecutor patiently standing by in chicago. jeff, does paul manafort's team change its strategy in light of what happened today for he faces his second trial in washington dc? >> there's not much they can do. they could not put mr. manafort on the stand. that would be easy cross examination fodder. there are many character witnesses for mr. benefits -- there are not going to be any character witnesses for mr. manafort. i do not think the d.c. case will go forward. it is like beating a piñata. he is looking at his time in jail and even if he was convicted, it could be concurrent time ran at the same moment. they may either come to a deal or take the