♪ longtimeent trump's lawyer faces five years in jail. michael cohen admitted to paying hush money to women. >> not only that, the president's former campaign chair paul manafort is convicted on eight counts, including tax and bank fraud. cabinet ministers offer to quit, urging his party to remain united. >> on a brighter note, the s&p 500 hits a new high as investors

bet on easing of tensions with china. the dollar falls further. just pastrom sydney, 8:00 a.m.. -- i am haidi stroud-watts. >> just past 6:00 in new york, i am ramy inocencio. over the next hour we will look at how action on wall street will play into the asia-pacific trading day. looking quickly at the markets, let's get you up to speed with how we ended the day in the active session. the s&p 500 up 0.2%. this is on hopes that those trade fairs might be ebbing a bit between the u.s. and china, and new trade data showing the stronger economy narrative as well. after hours, a look at what's happening with the s&p 500. it has taken a turn downwards,

now down about 0.3%, because of what's happening in terms of paul manafort, as well as former -- michael cohen. both basically becoming felons, inside donald trump's inner circle, that knock on effect, the biggest story today. haidi: all the action in the reals, perhaps the surprise is the longtime lawyer and fixer of president trump, michael cohen, pleading guilty to these charges that go to the core of hush payments paid to women who alleged they had affairs with the president. very interesting development. the reaction in the yen, which was strengthening in the previous session, but we had a recovery with dollar-yen. we see that reaction again, the

safe haven play coming back, the yen pretty much the only safe haven that has seen that traditional reaction. in asia, looking pretty mixed despite u.s. stocks hitting that fresh record high, the nine yerw r the longest fo stretch in history. more muted in the asia open, australia, kiwi dollar trading flat. sydney futures weaker going into the open. our top stories. a federal jury convicting president trump's former campaign chairman paul manafort at his fraud trial, and his longtime lawyer michael cohen also pleaded guilty to federal charges stemming from hush payments to women who claimed affairs with the president. >> mr. cohen disregarded that training, disregarded that tradition, and decided that he was above the law, and for that

he's going to pay a very, very serious price. haidi:1 let's get straight to our chief washington correspondent, kevin cirilli. how serious is this? kevin: very serious. michael cohen pleading guilty to charges that he was instructed by, according to court documents, "a candidate," to make payments to women who alleged extramarital affairs. the timing of this came shortly before election day, according to court documents. michael cohen, the president's longtime personal attorney and fixer at the trump organization, saying he was instructed to do so in order to impact the election. now, the court documents do not say specifically who the "candidate" is. that said, the only candidate michael cohen was working for at the time was then-candidate donald trump. michael cohen now faces jail time for these charges. meanwhile, paul manafort, the

president's former campaign chairman, found guilty on eight charges of fraud. this is a victory for special counsel robert mueller's investigation team, which has of course focused on mr. manafort for his financial dealings. we have new reaction from president trump in the last hour. he is set to speak to supporters in charleston, west virginia, within the next hour. he told reporters that he was defending paul manafort, calling sayingvery good man," there was no evidence of russian collusion. he went on to say that this was a sad day. just last week, the president made similar comments to reporters here at the white house. this is the first we are hearing from the president himself. he of course made no mention, and this is notable, made no mention of michael cohen in his public remarks. instead he opted to defend paul manafort, to say there was no

evidence of russian collusion, and to not comment on michael cohen. ramy: so interesting, these developments in the last few hours. pushing ahead, what happens next? you mentioned donald will be speaking within the hour. is there any thought he might try to further address, or even be pressured to address these huge events that have just happened? kevin: the fallout we are already seeing happening in real time on capitol hill, as lawmakers are still reacting in real-time to these developments that have emerged within the last two hours. democrats are adamant that this not have any impact on what they feel could be a misuse of pardoning power from president trump. we heard from democrats in the house of representatives and the senate, and from state lawmakers in states like new york, where several of these charges were actually filed, from democrats who are concerned with the president, that he could ultimately decide to pardon someone like paul manafort or michael cohen. republicans for their part, i spoke with two republicans who

work frequently with the administration as these events have happened. one source close to the white house said they were still digesting this. the second source echoed what president trump had said, in the sense that they feel that there is no evidence of russian collusion. the president set to give a massive, campaign-style rally in west virginia tonight, a stronghold for his political coalition. as the white house announced, he will be hitting the campaign trail between now and november with a very aggressive schedule. ramy: kevin cirilli with the latest on what's happening with these two court cases. meantime, some breaking news for you on the bloomberg terminal. rudy giuliani is now saying that there's no allegation of wrongdoing against donald trump. he further says michael cohen's actions reflect a pattern of lies on behalf of him over time. crossing the bloomberg terminal,

rudy giuliani now weighing and -- in on michael cohen and paul manafort. let's get more on this, a very dramatic day in the courts, vice dean and professor at cornell law school, expert in criminal law. good to have you. putsongressman said this donald trump clearly into legal jeopardy. do you agree? jens: absolutely. this is a disaster for president trump. this now places him really at the center of a criminal endeavor. remember, we have audiotapes from cohen that were provided to federal prosecutors, and if you combine those audio recordings now with the possibility of testimony from cohen about what's in those audiotapes, his interactions with donald trump, i think trump faces not only a campaign finance violation, but is also facing federal

conspiracy charge, because he was involved in this endeavor with mr. cohen. anyone other than a sitting president, i think he would have been indicted by now. ramy: all right. the phrase "unnamed candidate" comes up many times in terms of what michael cohen had been saying when we were breaking the news. unnamed candidate, the presumption is it is donald trump. do you agree, and why won't they just say his name? jens: i think it's because you will see more legal maneuvering about this in the future. i think it is clearly donald trump. i suspect there will be a legal filing in the future where not only do they announced that it but i suspectp, they will possibly list donald trump as an unindicted co-conspirator. they want action file an indictment against trump, but that's what this is heading. that will be a separate phase. they also have to work out with cohen what the conditions of his

cooperation are, which as i understand they have not done yet. haidi: jens, the theme of extra-legality over many different topics has kind of plagued the president. is this the one that is going to stick, and what is the legal crux it will come down to? jens: i think it will stick. it will look for a bad for trump. it could be the basis for a possible impeachment proceeding before the house of representatives, and i think it certainly will be a major section in mueller's report. i suspect they will be a section in the report titled, a conspiracy to violate campaign-finance laws, and federal prosecutors will think of even prosecuting trump after he leaves office. it's hard to think this will go away. the only thing i think is saving trump right now, the justice department has a policy of not indicting sitting

presidents, really the only thing saving donald trump from indictment at this moment in time. haidi: in terms of michael cohen pleading guilty without a cooperation deal, what would be the explanation behind that? is it still setting up for potential meetings with prosecutors? jens: i have got to think that there's, you know, there's an attitude there will be some type of cooperation. there's only two possibilities. one, cohen doesn't want to cooperate, or the other, which i think is more likely, the prosecution doesn't want a formal cooperation agreement. they might have told cohen, you are in real trouble, we want you to plead guilty, the expectation is you will cooperate. we want to secure your testimony with the understanding you haven't received anything in return. that is more beneficial for the prosecution. at a later point in time, cohen will get consideration. that way there will not be any problems for the prosecutor, and

other attorneys can't argue cohen is simply lying under oath in order to get this favorable treatment. if there's no cooperation agreement, the government can avoid that kind of messy allegation that cohen is lying. any sortns, is there of precedent for this kind of thing? jens: there is. not with a sitting president, but the allegations from cohen erilyeril similary -- e similar to the case against john edwards, who paid mone for someoney to hide in affair during his campaign. that,ase is similar to and that case was very much on solid ground legally, although as you recall, edwards wasn't found guilty because the jury wasn't convinced of his guilt. but i think legally that case was on solid ground. "nixonian" has also been

one of the words coming up to describe what is happening. is this just dramatic, folks saying that word, or is there some truth? jens: there is a very kind of nixonian aspect to this. the things that was interesting about the watergate proceedings and nixon was the centrality of lawyers. john dean's important role in first getting pushed out of the white house, then testifying against trump, not against trump, against nixon before congress. interesting you see today with cohen pleading guilty, possibly having information against trump, and we have heard stories about don mcgahn, white house counsel, cooperating with mueller's investigation and providing three days of testimony, all eerily similar to what happened in watergate. ramy: in 45 minutes donald trump is expected to do a campaign stop in charleston, west virginia.

what do you think his legal advisers are telling him in terms of what to say, or more importantly what not to say? jens: i think they are probably going to tell him not to say anything at all, and i can guarantee he's going to ignore that advice and stick with the same political strategies had before, which is to say this is a rigged witchhunt, rigged from the beginning, and the manafort conviction is another step in that rigged witchhunt, and cohen turning on the is another part of that rigged witchhunt. the problem is, the larger this group of people grows, people accusing trump of behavior, now including one of his closest confidants, michael cohen, the harder it is to say it is a witchhunt, because apparently everyone in the world is in on this witchhunt except for his supporters. but i think he will stick with the same strategy. haidi: over the last few minutes, we heard rudy giuliani speaking to the new york times, saying michael cohen has demonstrated a pattern of lies in his behavior and in his

actions. would you consider cohen a credible witness? jens: i think he could be a credible witness. it is clearly the case that he has engaged in inappropriate behavior, but the thing is, he allegedly engaged in that behavior on behalf of donald trump, so it is not as if cohen 's the legality is completely -- illegality is completely divorced from a trump was doing. it touches and taints trump as well. this is a classic problem in criminal law, whether it is local drug dealers or the highest reaches of federal law. whenever you get witnesses that they are usually not squeaky clean, usually involved in the criminality. they are not choirboys. they are people who have engaged in crimes themselves, and they are implicating their co-felons or co-conspirators, but it sounds like he has every incentive right now to tell the truth. haidi: lanny davis, michael cohen's lawyer, saying michael

took the step today so he could with his family move to the next chapter, fulfilling his promise to put family and country first and tell the truth about donald trump. lanny davis said today michael cohen testified under oath that donald trump instructed him to commit a crime with payments influencing an election. if they were a crime for cohen why would they not be for donald trump? jens: definitely a crime for trump to have done it. thecentral crime, if he's candidate and the money was spent on behalf of him and he was involved in this. not as if cohen did this without trump's direction. cohen was acting as trump's legal representative, so it's not a situation where a third party pays money and there is #and the -- hush money and the candidate isn't aware. trump was involved in these negotiations.

there are audio recordings of him discussing it with cohen, so it is really impossible for trump to insulate himself from cohen's the legality here. i think they both and up sinking together. interesting that cohen has decided to cut bait from trump. trumpfinally decided, can't protect me anymore and i have to look out for myself. haidi: we have to leave it there , but really great to have your inside. vice dean andin, professor at cornell law school. let's get you the first word news. has reiterated the pledge not to use the u.n. as a weapon -- yuan as a weapon in the as clayton trade war. the pboc governor said policymakers are confident in keeping the rate at a reasonable level. he spoke after president trump repeated his claim that china mutilates the yuan.

>> the flex ability of the yuan extent rate has improved significantly. we put an emphasis on letting the market play a role, and we will not use the exchange rate as a weapon in response to challenges from trade friction. we will stick to bottom-line thinking, and we are confident we can keep the yuan stable at a reasonable level. jessica: britain and the european union will negotiate brexit continuously from now on in a bid to reach a deal before britain crashes out of the bloc. they believe common ground can be found, but they insist britain must respect the single market. foriteers say it is time the u.k. to stand up for itself in the world. >> there are still many opportunities left unrealized, and that is what the strategy is intended to change. it builds on the government's industrial strategy, with the

ambition of making exports the norm, not the exception, working with businesses to give them the tools they required to unlock economic potential. jessica: the australian prime minister's hold on his job weakened further with five of his cabinet tendering resignations, as well as several junior ministers. they are believed to have supported right-wing challenger peter dutton in tuesday's leadership vote. malcolm turnbull has yet to accept most of the resignations, instead pleading for liberty within his --unity within his liberal ruling party. the u.s. sanctioned owners of six russian ships, after claims they are helping to transfer refined petroleum to north korean companies. two that of a stock -- companies they say violated measures, and sanctions will remain in place until this verifiable evidence

-- there is verifiable evidence kim jong-un is breaking up his nuclear program. andking news on bloomberg at tictoc on twitter. i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. ramy: a very busy day here in the world of politics, crossing the bloomberg terminal right now. gop representative duncan hunter has been indicted on campaign finance charges. representative, republican congressman duncan hunter and his wife have been indicted by the doj for allegedly using a quarter million dollars in campaign money for their own personal expenses, crossing the bloomberg terminal right now, haidi. terms ofah, ramy, in details, looking at the department of justice announcement with regards to representative duncan hunter and his wife, indicted for the use of more than $250,000 in campaign funds to pay for personal expenses, including the likes of family vacations, dental work, school tuition,

theater tickets. we are getting some details on that story, but certainly a very busy morning, not a very flattering one in terms of what's going on with u.s. politics right now. still ahead, we will look at who is cashing in on the trade war, who the beneficiaries are. we put the questions to our guest, how they plan to benefit from chinese tariffs on u.s. lng. ramy: and euphoria in u.s. markets. we look at what is driving stocks toward the longest bull run in history. this is bloomberg. ♪

ramy: the s&p 500 hit an high, and suaday keenan is here with the latest. su: abnormally sentiment driven market, and if you hit a market like this it gives extra fuel to the bulls or causes nervousness. bloomberg gtv, where you can

find our library of charts. first time since january we are back at levels. why nervousness? the strategist says with the background of trade talks, peak margins, now brand-new one-two punch headlines for trump, there could be nervousness. let's go to the market snapshot. we did see dollar weakness, the s&p closing off the record as we got the trump conviction headlines. the broadest measure of the market small caps, all-time closing high. big movers, tesla was down and then back up. morgan stanley, the second big firm to suspend coverage. ew, someld create a vi view that as a positive speculation. analyst commentary about people under 30 buying into tesla at the lows.

billionaire ken griffin takes a position. brokerstrade, online taking a hit as jpmorgan announces they might offer a free online trading service. haidi: su, we saw the beneficiaries of the weaker dollar, oil and gold. su: real quickly, oil, not just the weaker dollar ahead of the weekly supply data out on wednesday. there is a view, if we can look at how the oil chart was trading, oil was up to $68 intraday, closed near $67. there's a view we will get bullish supply data wednesday. quickly on gold, near a 19 month low, not really a safe haven play. really reacts to where the dollar is moving. back to you. haidi: thank you so much for that. more on this breaking story.

michael cohen's lawyer saying president trump directed him to commit a crime, according to lanny davis on twitter, saying trump directed him to commit a crime by making payments to two women for the purposeful purpose of influencing an election. if they were a crime for cohen, why would they not be for president trump as well, the latest from cohen's longtime lawyer. part of a busy morning of developments. ramy: the headlines are fast and furious here over the past few hours. not just of course with michael cohen, but also with paul manafort there, being charged and convicted on eight counts. a lot in terms of what this means for donald trump. we are expecting him to come out in about half an hour in charleston, west virginia for the scheduled campaign rally, but it will be interesting to see the mood in that hall, especially with this hanging over him.

all right. a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. tesla's plan to go private has taken a new turn, with morgan stanley the second big-name to suspend coverage. goldman sachs said it was dropping its rating as it advises elon musk, but morgan stanley has offered no such guidance. it has prompted speculation the bank is maneuvering for a role in the privatization bid, triggering the biggest intraday gain in two weeks. haidi: uber ended its three year run without a cfo. he was recently the ceo of a industry group of insurers. uber plans to go public in the second half of next year. xiaomi reports after the close in hong kong, the first results since going public last month. the beijing-based smartphone maker wants to evolve into

online services like apple, but some investors are starting to lose faith. the stock is almost 20% below its post-listing peak. this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity mobile is a new wireless network

designed to save you money. even when you've got serious binging to do. wherever your phone takes you, your wireless bill is about to cost a whole lot less. use less data with a network that has the most wifi hotspots where you need them and the best 4g lte everywhere else. saving you hundreds of dollars a year. and ask how you get xfinity mobile included with your internet. plus, get $300 back when you buy a new smartphone. xfinity mobile. it's simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today.

sydney. 8:30 a.m. in looking like a pretty tepid session for futures and to go into that open. a very strongly from wall street overnight. the s&p reaching yet another fresh record high. we have this bull run in the u.s. at nine years running, potentially tying for the longest on record. some of that positivity feeding through to asia. i am haidi stroud-watts. ramy: i am ramy inocencio. let's get the first word news with jessica summers. jessica: president's longtime lawyer, michael cohen, faces up

to five years in jail after pleading guilty to eight charges from women who claim affairs with the president. he violated a law at the direction of an unnamed candidate for federal office, he says. >> these are very serious charges. they are significant in their own right. they are particularly significant when done by a lawyer. a jury convicted paul manafort on eight counts including tax and bank fraud. not reach ald decision on another 10 charges. the president said matt forte is a good man and he feels badly for him. is a good man and he feels badly for him. pres. trump: this has absolutely nothing to do with russian collusion. this is a witch hunt and a disgrace. this has nothing to do with what they started out looking for,

russian involvement in our campaign. there was none. jessica: the world's largest operator is to face all lawsuit over failure to adopt adequate security that ultimately led to data leaks. they provide visual id to more than one billion people, but it has reportedly suffered a string of leaks. the database is used to everything from opening a bank account to installing a gas connection. tokyo is casting doubt on official plans to introduce daylight savings to help manage the heat during the olympics. she said she is concerned about the cost and disruption. if the world prepares to focus on tokyo, she -- we have had a lot of positive responses from global companies. i heard that there are many companies out there considering coming back to tokyo or setting

up here for the first time. jessica: global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on powered by more than 120 countries. i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. haidi: thanks for that. let's get you a quick update on your early market action in asia. trading gets underway in new zealand. pretty flat, starting to build on the gains. the aussie dollar seeing a little bit of a benefit from the broad dollar weakness overnight with the bloomberg dollar index falling the most in a month on these comments from president trump criticizing the fed's rate hike. switching it over to dollar-yen, low,ng to the eight-week and we are seeing the recovery rally being unwound after all of the political developments in response to the guilty plea by michael cohen.

sterling, weakness in the dollar driving the pound up by 1%, as the brexit talks in brussels continue, both sides saying there will be continuous discussion as to try and make the deadline. we had the s&p 500 closing at extendingcord high, this bull run we see in the u.s. despite the political headwinds. that's get more on what we should be watching as trading gets underway in asia. adam haigh is here with us. let's take a look at china. or iss sort of a one-off this a sustainable methodology to try and support this rally? adam: one of the interesting things about what's been happening in china is there has been intervention to stabilize the currency markets, but we have not seen the national team. we saw that on monday. thisve not had episodes of over the last few months.

people have often questioned around one levels the state authorities would come in to defend equities and try and shore up sentiment which is incredibly fragile chinese equities. the gap between the u.s. and china in terms of equity market performance is incredibly start and continues to grow, but what we have seen yesterday and indeed on the back of low turnover is the state support propping things up. todaysting on the open whether we get kind of a firmer confirmation of this being a more sustained thing or whether this rally peters out. meantime, the big story in the united states is the legal troubles surrounding president trump's former lawyer as well as the campaign trail. what is the impact for each of this morning? adam: of course, the main

reaction that we saw was kind of the yen dialing back some of those losses that were sustained during the session and the same reaction in treasuries, and the equity market is closed in the u.s.. we saw the move lower in the etf that tracks it. we are kind of setting up for a reasonably mixed open in asia, but clearly it has hit sentiment at the margin. we have not seen huge moves in any asset classes. when you consider that we are making new records in u.s. stocks, and sentiment globally reassured conceding the issues going on in china, course.f that is the backdrop for people wanting to question valuation that this point, wanting to just look for reasons to take a little bit of risk off, so that might be what we see as a

followthrough to some of this news in the last few hours that has shaken risk sentiment somewhat. ramy: adam haigh, bloomberg editor, and don't forget to check out our gtv library on gtv on your own bloomberg terminal. let's get more out of what's happening out of washington, d.c., and the impact that it is taking on equities as well as currencies. joining us from baltimore is peter often, global -- austin, global head of asset solutions. looking at s&p futures as well as the u.s. dollar, we are seeing both of them come off a little bit. you think this is going to be short-lived? what is the longevity of what's happening here? peter: i think it is a matter of we are seeing some news that

come out and the market is reacting. much beyond what i have seen in bloomberg feeds as to the news. this will play out like any other important news. i think the fact that you are not seeing huge moves in the s&p after hours as well as the dollar, i think things need to shake out and work their way through the news and process. ramy: is there anyway way that investors could play this current downturn? when you think, about our multi-asset business, we are not thinking about individual traits like today. certainly, we had portfolio managers that will assess this news and make their decisions based on it. i think given what we have seen in the press in general with our president and news that has been

brought forth, i think it is a matter of waiting and seeing what impact it has, and this is just the beginning of the actions.around these we will see what happens in the markets as a result. haidi: i suppose there is obvious with a look at this. one is the safe haven trade. it is pretty obvious that it is a bit more short-term. longer-term, you have to maybe look at the trump trade and what are the implications for that. does this make you want to be a bit more cautious and reassess? peter: the way we think about investing is to take a and we are view feeling good about the u.s. market. we mentioned what happened with the s&p today in terms of closing just off an all-time high. we feel positive about where the fed is with regard to its policies and taking a measured

course. we think there will be two more actions this year, and we will see what happens in 2019. there will be traders that act on this news and take position. i think it is a matter of waiting and seeing if there's any long-term impact beyond short-term impact and how it affects the markets. it sounds like you are putting aside the short-term certainties. what longer-term fundamental value looking at? even if you put aside the issue of a potential trade war, that is still a structural slowdown. how does that impact her holdings in the longer term? peter: with respect to china, i think the way that the economy has slowed is keeping with our expectations, maybe with a little further than with we expected. -- what we expected.

our sovereign analyst is looking for 6.4% gdp growth this year, and in terms of our positions , our portfolio managers in hong kong are actually beginning to close some underweight with regard to china because they think, actually, that the fundamentals look hasty good and the market been beating down sufficiently where there is good value that is available to investors. ramy: looking at what has been happening on the s&p, 28.62. ,he question now for investors are we close to the talk, or is there more reason to hang on in there for hopefully a high-rise rises?er peter: when we think about the

u.s. economy, and we look at rates, and we see the 10 year where it is today, we see the fed, i think, taking a measured course. we look at earnings growth, which in the first half was outstanding. the second half is going to be slower. 2019 is going to be half of this year, but we are still looking at earnings growth in the 9% to 10% range. i think that can altogether represent an attractive environment. we certainly are in the late stage of the economic cycle in the u.s., and so, by virtue of that, you want to be a little careful and think about where value resides, and in fact, in our portfolios, we are slightly underweight the u.s. and overweight some non-us markets, because in fact we think the areamentals and valuations more attractive.

but we still, frankly, from an equity data standpoint, are neutral to our strategic rates that is because we continue to see the u.s. as an attractive market. ramy: very quickly before we let you go, pushing ahead to jackson hole, when jay powell starts talking, what do you hope to garner from his statement? peter: i think what i have is the about mr. powell fact that he is being very thoughtful and measured about how the fed considers their actions, how they take action, and then how they take into account factors that can influence the impact, not only of their decisions, but the factors that impact other parts of the economy, so what i am ofing for is a continuation his thoughtful approach, so again, we are expecting their are going to be two more

increases this year, but in terms of next year, you know, in threet has priced movements, and year, we will see. i think the fed is going to take a very measured course taking into account where the economy is and also where the global markets are as well. ramy: we will leave it there. peter austin, head of multi-asset solutions. up next, oil surge may be one winner from china's proposed tariffs on u.s. lng. more next. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. ramy: i am a knee inocencio in new york -- ramy inocencio in new york, and you are watching "daybreak australia." japan's top wireless carriers

tumbled after the government said they have room to cut some bills. they lost $9 billion in market cap when chief cabinet secretary -- said they could lower build by 40%. he also said competition between the big three was not working, sparking concern the government will renew its push for greater choice. haidi: american airlines is dropping a second major china route after services turned out to be a colossal loss. direct service between chicago andchunk -- sean high -- shanghai will end in october. it will connect the two cities. an insurance company bolstering its case for buying credentials business in asia. results show profitability in china, at its weakest in six years after a rebound in the second quarter that may revive talk about buying the operation, a deal that would bring

customers from singapore to vietnam. itsaid it is not -- it said is not interested. we will hear more about those results from james gardner. stay tuned for that interview in the next hour of "daybreak asia." oil is set to be a major winner if china is set to have tariffs on lng. impactold us what they may have on the company's decisions. peter: in fact, the last 24 hours has thrown many of the concepts the private sector got comfortable with. of course, that is not good for invest anddustry to invest with certainty about what we can build, what we can deliver in a challenging energy

market. >> what is your forecast on oil pricing being part of that? there is a lot of uncertainty in the market at the moment on the supply and demand side. >> i do not think it will go very far. i think it is not going to move that much. i suppose from our business perspective, we have taken costs out about business when it was a much lower oil price. we are not seeing inflationary pressures putting the cost back in. if a little different in some of the projects in australia where there already seems to be some inflation. we are sitting well and very comfortable with the oil price sitting in at 65, 75 range, and making good money out of that. does a trade war, trade tensions, you know,

political volatility, how much does that way into your strategic thinking? peter: if there are trade tensions between the u.s. and china and there is an application of tariffs against u.s. exports into china, that is the frost. why not take the positives when they come? how long they will go on for is obviously a question, but the reality is i think a trade war is not good for the world economy as a whole. outlook, we are in us somepe, and it gives advantage over u.s. suppliers. haidi: i am benefit -- benefiting from that. that was peter speaking to me earlier, and you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. bloomberg subscribers can go

to dayb . stocks up. daybreak is also available on your mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. settings sok those you just get the news on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. ramy: i am ramy inocencio in new york, and you're watching "daybreak australia." the earnings watch in asia tends to xiaomi on wednesday in hong kong with its first results since going public last month. stephen engle is tracking all this. what do we expect after its high-profile ipo? stephen: we are really going to be looking for is guidance. late june has been touting this internet ecosystem. they are more than just a hardware maker. he says they are an internet services company in the making,

but again, going back to that ipo in early july, that was the biggest concern, especially since they priced the ipo along with those bigger internet firms , valuation that was a bit overpriced. we have seen that as well with the stock price instead. the stock has vacillated right around the ipo price of $17. it went up as high as 21.55, but so inwn in the $17 range, just about five weeks time, the stock has really roller coaster do bit, but it had not broken out, and that stems to the concern that investors have that this is a company that has not necessarily broken from the maker of its handset moniker, because 70% of revenue ,rom xiaomi comes from handsets

late june over the long-term. he is a billionaire chairman. he says over the longer-term, we are going to be an internet services company, spending more on video, music, financial services, and it is just not there yet. haidi: what is the floor to this ecosystem dream? atphen: again, if you look tencent or other companies, they are platform agnostic. they can go into an apple. they can go into an android phone. xiaomi, which is based on a noun droid platform, for them to grow their ecosystem, they have to sell more smart phones and build this ecosystem. they have 100 90 million active users right now. if they want to take it overseas, build up the services in china, they need to sell more handsets at a time when the handset market globally is starting to wane. haidi: thank you so much for that, stephen engle in hong kong. digging deeper into xiaomi's results.

we will be speaking to the head of asia telecom and internet research in just a little over an hour. speaking of daybreak asia, time to take a look at what is coming up over the next few hours. earnings, earnings, earnings. it goes to show that when it came to the first half how it could have a risk and you continue to concentrate in the domestic market of china are you they saw profitability at their life insurance operations in china, the weakest in six years. also, take a look at how they did beat estimates in some banks, but we are seeing other rivals have more rosy outlooks out there. we are speaking to the group chief strategist about what comes next. aniving talks about ping buying provincial asia as well. ramy: we will be talking about

what is happening in the m&a sphere in china, both the .essage as well as outbound in the first half of this year, m&a activity fell 18% in the first six months. we will be asking david brown what is behind that and if there is a chance for a rebound, haidi. haidi: and also asking about what lies ahead when it comes to this trump trade route, particularly with the dramatic developments this morning. new record highs. we speak with jason thomas. he put a bit of thought into this very question of cannibal market keep going. lots more to come. we continue to watch out for the safe haven trade, the flipside of all the political developments coming out for michael: and the metaphor trial. that will continue to --

ramy will be up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is 7:00 a.m. in hong kong, and i am yvonne man. welcome to "daybreak asia." president trump's longtime lawyer faces five years in jail. paul manafort is convicted on eight counts including tax and bank fraud. ramy: from bloomberg's global headquarters, i am ramy in the innocence you -- ramy inocencio in new york. investors seek safety. equity futures are already the and sanctions towards 110. the ping an could take out some inra