money payments to two women who -- influencing the elections. >> as the president said and stated many times, he did nothing wrong and there are no charges against him. we have commented on this extensively. >> sanders also calls it a ridiculous accusation to suggest the president had lied when he said he did not know about the payments at the time they were made. when asked about whether the president is concerned about what michael: mike kelly special counsel investigating russian election meant in, sanders told reporters, "i don't think the president is concerned at all." russian president vladimir putin is repeating his claim that sanctions imposed in his country by the u.s. are senseless. with hisin talks counterpart, he tells -- he claims the trump administration for continue to hit russia with sanctions.

the white house added to a growing list of sanctions against russia on tuesday. saysraeli watchdog group the government has advanced plans to build over 1000 new homes in west bank settlements. peace now says the defense officials gave final approval for construction to begin. 600,000 israelis live in settlements and territories captured by israel in the 1967 by there claimed palestinians pairs secretary of state mike pompeo met with the british foreign prime minister at the state department today. the meeting follows the speech yesterday in which he was highly critical russia and told the u.s. institute of peace that there will always be a serious price to pay if red lines are crossed. the use of bad weapons or, increasingly, cyberattacks. live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york -- global news 24 hours a day on air and on tick tock on twitter, powered by more than 2700

journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ caroline: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm caroline hyde. scarlet: we are 30 minutes from the u.s. the five-day winning streak stalling with the fed and focus following 24 hours of legal drama for the president. joe: the western is what did you miss? caroline: the fed is ready to raise interest rates again if the economy stays on track. a strategic change in the pipeline for a company to hold off on you focus on acquisition of -- giant. and fan appeal wants to be the google of cannabis. a sizable cash pot.

scarlet: the federal reserve releasing minutes from a policy meeting under scoring concerns for trade war and intentions for the rate hike path. jay powell, the fed chair, will deliver an address on friday at the central bank's annual policy symposium in wyoming. let's welcome the bloomberg opinion columnist dan. with regard to fed minutes, -- a all systems go for quarter-point in september, likely a quarter-point in december, possibly one more in january before they pause and take a breath and say where are we going vis-a-vis neutral? the answer is they are probably getting close by that point. fed undermining trump's economic boom and our chances to win the trade negotiation?

>> it is proceeding on a very different track from donald trump. like the rest of the government he nominally has here at all of the reams of information and forecasts that the fed has put out in recent years, largely tell us where the fed is going. from what independent trump might say of donors of jay powell. because peoplets need something to fundamentally trade on. there is business to do. if you are looking for an explanation of relative dollar strength and why emerging markets are generally under pressure, it is because there is ifa withdrawal of monetary stimulus going on by the western central banks and the fed is moving further and faster than the rest. historically, rates are still low. inflationely because -- joe: let's imagine for a second

that trump or not the president but was just some guy on twitter, like a lot of people, chiming in with his two cents on monetary policy. does he have a point? the economy is doing well inflation is subdued and what is the fed worried about? is doing well and inflation is subdued but inflation is not as subdued as it was. are at about 2%. would have killed for that two years ago and deflation was the big concern. are still low by historical standards and this is about removing accommodation. they are not at a point yet where interest rates are restricting activity. a key point. >> to joe's point, it does seem like the fed is sometimes in a big rush to get back to normal standing so they can renew death resume normal policy as opposed to this. 10 years after the crisis, we

are not really going to get back to normal policy. we have gone through this extraordinary event and these unprecedented measures taken. that will never really completely go away. mean when you not get to normal, that it is the same normal it was way back when. if you look at the past couple of interest rate cycles, the peak of the fed funds rate at those cycles has steadily been coming down. in latest forecasts released june, we will get an update next month, have long sustainable rate at 2.9%, well below the 5% it was in 2007 before they began cutting. caroline: i'm keen to get onto the yield curve. it seems to get brought up in the fed minutes. seems to be, maybe some different opinions coming as soon as december. do you think that in any way affects the trajectory? >> the central bank, the district bank presidents rather than the governors have had the

most to say about this. it is tough to find any of them that will say yes, i will knowingly invert the yield curve as a policy intent. a flattening yield curve. which i know is different from what you just talked about, is a natural byproduct of an environment where interest rates are rising. see where we go. , is.9 according to the fcp a long-run sustainable late -- rate, and you use that is neutral, we're not that far away. the curve might start to dissipate as we head into next year and get closer to that point. >> you wonder whether they will bring it up in any active way, especially when jay powell speak speed or do we know what the topic of his speech is? sometimes, they get academic and it is important to figure out if he will talk about something obscure. >> we know the broad topic of the retreat has been discussed

on air. historically, they have left the chairman really -- in terms of how he and she wants to interpret it or run it. it is important to remember we need to take a bit of a deep rough with jackson hole. the speeches by the chair has not always moved the world were shaken the earth. sometimes they have a those are the ones we remember. but many of them have not had a deeply profound impact because bernanke he, yellen, and powell, very much are talking about the committee. the autocrat that the fed is behind us. joe: you mentioned the idea that maybe at some point after a couple more hikes, they would debut is neutral. but is that just a finger in the wind thing like all of this stuff? >> mutual changes over time depending on was going on with the labor market and what is

going on with inflation, if you look at the thing in the forecast they call the long-run sustainable rate, and you have to find a reference when, it is a useful proxy to have the conversation around. >> are you suggesting they just make up the rate? >> i'm not saying anything. scarlet: all right. dan, thank you. on what happens later this week p the economy may be strong but truckers paychecks are going in reverse. some great charts to highlight all of this coming your way. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> wages are not necessarily keeping pace and that goes for other industries as well.

why is that? let's go to matt, and economy reporter based in washington. you and your colleagues investigated why it is wages have not been rising to where they should. it goes for trucking, it goes for the childcare industry as well. talk us through what is happening -- happening in trucking. ofs is an area where a lot people say they need workers and they cannot find them. >> that is right. we have been talking about what has been going on in the last couple of weeks and the interesting ring is there is all of a sudden a lot of demand for trucking services in a strong were manufacturing is rebounding that we did not necessarily have a year or two ago when things were not looking too good. you have a situation where now the trucking industry is getting higher rates because there is so much demand, but they have been kind of underinvested and have or been investing in trucks equipment or hiring drivers.

now you're starting to see, ok, we need more drivers to meet the demand, but they are not to the point where they are willing to raise the base wage. they are doing a lot of things to attract riders by giving them higher signing bonuses, adding some other nonwage benefits, but it speaks to what is going on in the broader economy with wages right now where we are seeing a situation where we are starting to see that employers take the next step, those things like bonuses, and they have not quite gotten to raising yet. scarlet cohen you can look at relative pay interesting and it is not going up the way you might expect given all we would discuss with demand with truck. joe: everything but the waitress. let's talk about other areas of the economy in which there is a lot of talk about the market being tight but we are not seeing a trickle through, tedious with -- two wages. construction is another big one.

what is their explanation? >> my colleague in atlanta looked into what is going on in construction and it is a similar story to what is going on in trucking. a lot of hesitancy to raise the base wage because people remember the recession though it was 10 years ago. they remember layoffs and how quickly things can turn. you saw some comments from construction employers in the story where they are saying we will have to start thinking about this now because it is becoming harder to attract workers. but they are doing the same sorts of nonwage benefits to try and attract workers like, you know, flying them from elsewhere and putting them up on hotels, giving them free food and that sort of thing. another aspect of the construction story that i think is interesting is the effect where you have a couple of large employers able to set wages in the industry, which is something we might hear a bit more about at jackson hole this weekend

where bankers will talk about those kinds of things. caroline: another key part of the industry you are looking at is childcare, sort of boxed in by every other industry because they cannot be affordable as everyone else -- if everyone else's not getting a wage hike. we saw in the fed minutes perhaps some optimism being cited, that wages will finally start to take higher. working in the childcare industry have something to be optimistic about? >> perhaps. certainly a broad based rise in wages will benefit them as well. the interesting aspect of childcare, which is why we focused on it along with other industries is that the childcare industry itself is putting a constraint on other parts of the economy and maybe wage growth in other parts of the economy. if you cannot find care for your kid, it makes it harder for you to get a job. that is kind of gumming up the normal workings of the economy overall.

>> there is a great story on the bloomberg today about one of the biggest boom areas, the basin on day400 children are care waiting lists, preventing people from taking jobs. example ofextreme the childcare shortage, but, it's face to me. scarlet cohen everyone scrambling to play catch-up as a result. on want to go back to where we started with trucking. theyas truckers find that do not have much room in terms of wage gains, there are ways around it and you talked, you and your colleagues, to someone who recently quit the trucking company they work for to become an owning and operator. does that give them more control and are they able to make more money that way? >> that was definitely max that we spoke to. that was his view. increases seeing wage and said he would go his own way and do the owner operator route. the thing with that, and it

helps illustrate the broader issue, there are so few barriers to entry. anyone can be an owner operator and start driving on their own contract gigs. that is a reason why wages are so slow to rise. it is competitive and very difficult for those companies to raise prices. i think that is something we see in construction as well in the industries where there are such low barriers to entry, low prices, a lack of racing power is also another factor holding down really -- wages for the last 10 years. scarlet: fantastic point. matt joining us from washington. thank you. it is time enough for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news now. one of the world posted death will pass's most anticipated public offerings put on hold. focusing on buying a strategic stake in a chemical giant industries. putting a fork on the ipo. according to people familiar with the matter, it does not mean the plan share sale is

canceled, just that it has been delayed. jpmorgan's firing about 100 workers in its asset management division. the cuts range across several businesses in the group. the asset management, 4% in the first half of the year. that is your bloomberg business flash. caroline: timeout for the stock of the hour. some investors are souring on the shares this afternoon. romaine bostick is here in the details. yes but we opened this morning on an all-time high. a lot of enthusiasm and i want to show you why. a company that was very popular in the retail sector for a while and it fell off the map for a little bit but the last recorded, it has done get busters. quarter, upent about 13% for its anthropology brand up about 17%. optimism.rowth and what happened as the day went on, shares started to sell up a

little bit. 36% this year prior to today but about 152% from last year. this week from last august. it was on a good run. they little profit taking which tends to be the norm for earnings day. it tends to sell into earnings and then it gives us the breath a couple of days later. joe: what are they do because a couple of years ago, the view was that they are totally out of step. early 2016, he revamped inventory controls and expanded overseas, remodeled a lot stored -- a lot of stores and put a lot of emphasis on anthropology, a higher-priced were -- with they the discounting in the markdown, that really help to boost same-store sales growth quarter to quarter that we have seen in the last few time periods. that is why you saw a lot of enthusiasm in the past year.

scarlet: urban outfitters down today, our stock of the hour. coming up next, the focus is on retail after walmart reported some of its best numbers in a decade. we look at target. it answered with a winning quarter of its own. how these stores are upping on everyone else. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: the winning second quarter after walmart threw down the retail gauntlet with -- target set hold my cart. the big-box retailer says the best in 13 years with digital

sales rising 41% from a year ago. for more, the bloomberg opinion columnist sarah is here now with more from washington to what is the strategy? >> couple of things firing on all cylinders per one is that they are stool we -- store remodel's starting to pay off. a $7 billion plan that they put forward last year, making the lighting nicer, making sightlines lower and beauty departments look more so for a hora-like. growth is really strong being fueled by things like finally offering free two-day shipping, better matching the offers from walmart and amazon. joe: i'm curious here it should amazon be concerned that some of the big players are showing traction on digital? >> i think they should. there is no doubt amazon will be the most

formidable player in this space. they command $.50 of every dollar spent online right now. but we see that the brick and mortar players are figuring it out, a case that amazon is not very well equipped to manage. the buy online pickup ins -- in-store. both seeing really strong up tick, it is something amazon at this point is only having about 400 stores, it just cannot compete with. >> seems like they are having to gain additional he and i'm looking at the margins under pressure. though we see sales really going great, if you look at a chart of it, we are seeing it almost slightly above zero at the moment. where do you see margins going? >> i think margin compression will be an issue with them for some time. there are a couple of things to point out. one is that some of the reason they saw that -- that this quarter is a strong increase in lower margin items are they are

really going hard after the business that toys "r" us and babies are month -- babies r us left in the market. they have lower margins than say home goods and apparel. in a way, i think the fact that they are getting the foot traffic is probably good enough for now and they could build on that going forward. joe: we are coming to the end of all the retail earnings. we have seen a lot of companies is one, clearly, target walmart is another. we just talked about urban out fitters p or nordstrom seems to be doing well. what is the common denominator they all have? >> there is no doubt that there is some element here of strong consumer sentiment. the ceo brian cornell said this morning that this may be the best consumer environment he has seen in his entire career in retail. and certainly, they are all benefiting from that. a lot of these guys are just several years into ambitious investments to better equip themselves for e-commerce. target announced their big plan

january 2017, walmart announced their big lan in 2015. they have done the spending and are seeing results of it. scarlet: all of this sets us up for a back-to-school to school and holiday shopping season as well. what kind of forward guidance have we gotten from these guys? large, good signals about back to school. target said they are off to a really good start and walmart made similar indications in their remarks about to date as well. i think we are seeing this will be a smack down for fiscal and holiday. i have been cuddly -- cover retail and usually i'm he sees and feels like a funeral and this is the first time i can really remember a lot of the biggest players in the industry are putting their best foot forward. >> certainly, those commons from brian get your attention. in washington. thank you. the market closes next and yes,

we are seeing gains in shares of target and also in tech heavy companies in the nasdaq. and we barely making it will see if it can hold onto a five day winning streak. this is bloomberg. ♪

[applause]

scarlet: "what'd you miss?" stocks are fluctuating with the s&p 500 struggling to hold on to its recent gains. telecom and others are weighing on white equities overall. >> i'm caroline hyde. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. welcome to the closing bell coverage every weekday from four to 5 p.m. eastern. scarlet: let's begin with market minutes. the s&p 500 is not quite getting it done so the five-day winning streak comes to an end. at least after the close. the dow losing 87 points as well. the drop we saw in futures after various headlines on paul manafort and michael cohen had some of an effect today. joe: really mild. scarlet: really mild. in the fed is moving on with its plan no problem. tech shares as a group is rising one half of 1%.

we are at the tail end of earning season. one company is now forecasting yearly cash flows with operations of about 7 billion and about 1.2 billion. this comes in better than what guidance had for the company. as for target, it was trading at a record high. 85.95 at the close. target is keeping pace with walmart by posting its best comparable sales and 13 years. pierce storage, which i thought was a storage company but is a computer hard where in storage company, had the best day think to higher profits and sales. down outfitters are despite second-quarter earnings report. comparable sales numbers are beating at least all three of its store banners including caroline's favorite.

joe: let's take a look at the government bond market. we had the fed minutes which by and large do not have much of an effect, but more flattening. , butwo-year yield is flat the 10 year yield is taking down a little bit at 2.82. a chart of the two-year yield, you cannot even see the sentiment. that shows there is never really any reaction. caroline: jan in the treasury market -- yawn in the treasury market. the dixie is down and we have the sixth day of losses for the dixie. yesterday's hangover of what we saw in terms of political tensions driving down the dollar in the u.s., and the euro is up for the straight day. best since 2012. politics are hitting the aussie dollar as well and their down by 2/10 of 1%.

this is the political turmoil engulfing the prime minister. keep an eye on that one. looking and mexico, one percentage point up. we might see some sort of breakthrough. joe: finally, on commodities, oil and gold. oil is having a nice day. the biggest oil headline was a report about the aramco ipo. however, most of the gains for oil were earlier on inventory drawdowns. inventory gaining -- gold gaining 3%. sorry, oil gaining 3%. gold ticking a little higher about $1200 an ounce. those are today's market minutes. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" joining us for more on the market moves and how investors are hedging president trump's matt andmas is max -- he joins us from massachusetts. matt, are investors hedging the political dramas? we saw futures take a leg lower

following the headlines yesterday. the s&p in the dow closed down, although the nasdaq rose. does that have an impact on the market if not now at some point? matt: it's good. andgs will get a lot worse be more direct to the president before we have an impact on the markets. it is interesting that you asked about hedging. we are seeing hedging not just on president trump's political issues, but also on trade and other things. that is in a very unique way. it is moved to more defensive stocks. a lot of stocks have outperformed and we see a little rotation rather than the rating cash. joe: matt, we have not quite close that a record high, but the u.s. equity markets are doing very well lately. there is this -- it feels like there is this veneer of teflon on them because there are a lot

of stories that, theoretically, could hurt the market whether it is domestic politics, trade, or all kinds of other stuff. ceo, you have the target saying it is the best consumer market he has ever seen in his entire career stretching back to 1981. what makes you nervous? it all seems pretty good right now. matt: it does. put on top of that the transportation stocks making new highs and they are economically sensitive. there are reasons to be bullish out there. two things to worry me. one, the european banks are still in bear market territory and i don't think the situation in turkey is over. the other thing is further down the road next year. unlike many other presidents, president trump's programs were front and loaded rather than backend loaded like they usually are. the tax cuts paid in 2019 and it

might create a headwind. that is why some people are getting more defensive moving to the end of the year. not in a major way, but it looks that way. caroline: we did not hit the record in the s&p 500, but we are killing it on forecast. it hit another record today. is it all about the small caps? matt: it is certainly helpful. on a technical basis, it broke an ascending tribal pattern with -- talking about the defensive thing, you don't think of small caps is being defensive stocks. with the u.s. economy doing better than any other economy in the world, it is a little bit of a defensive play at least for the better more seasoned companies in that area. joe: are the small caps kind of a win both ways because they have less international

exposures to get the pure u.s. exposure and they are more speculative and when things are going good people like to gamble? matt: yeah. that is true, but it is interesting going back to the one thing. the thing that really works because we have issues, all of these issues you mentioned earlier, they will hit us at some point. we have a chance of at least a little slow down in 2019. if you moved to the defensive areas, especially the health care group, you can still participate in the upside because you have outperformed for the last three or four months in those groups and you are buying a little protection. this as we move into the second half of the president's tenure. scarlet: joe mentioned target and we talk about retail earnings because of the tail end of the earnings season being here. the federal reserve to minutes -- reserve minutes have been released. we have been -- we will be

hearing from jay powell at the end of the week. what are investors looking at for catalyst before people come back following labor day? will it be technically driven where we look at certain levels? matt: that tends to be what happens. the last time we had the gap in the previous quarter when the market is not had anything to focus on, it focused a little bit and reacted harsher to some .f these news events in the previous quarter, it was a lot on trade we will have trade again and i'm sure we will and more out of mr. cohen president trump street i also worry about when the heat turns up on president trump, he will try to deflect the attention away to other things to read he might turn up the flame on the trade issue and i could create problems. we could hit a little volatility -- pat the volatility we saw in

the middle of the second quarter or the end of the second quarter. caroline: we talk about the risks, what about the opportunities? matt: there are a couple of things. the transportation stocks. the airlines had a sharp correction of the first half and they are trying to bounce back. a bounceion is, is it back for an oversold condition or is it for real? there is a misnomer out there about oil prices and airline stocks. oil prices go up and airline stock is down, it makes sense. looking in history, that is not sure most of the time. the usually go in the same direction. if you see airline stocks continue to fall through, it will be a signal the economy is doing better and both oil and airlines can go up in tandem. that would be bullish. another thing is the semiconductor stocks taking a breather here. thingcould see the same

that previously happened with it bouncing back after the breather, that could get the tech group going which would be helpful. scarlet: what about the energy sector? especially with the bloomberg scoop that saudi aramco will hold off on its ipo right now as it looks to build its acquisition year of basic industries -- saudi basic industries. , me: one of the reasons -- one ofwere bullish the reasons people, me included, were bullish is that saudi will make sure that it does not fall through because they want this ipo, but that is not the case anymore. the one thing that helps is over the last few years, a lot of people that say they will pump more oil, russia and others, they have not been upgrading their facilities or capabilities to produce this oil and pump it. i think a big increase in supply is not as much of a problem as a

lot of people think. even though we could see -- i think after the the oil markets will be good. low 60's at the worst is what we will see. caroline: matt maley, thank you. king and weanada's will take a look at kennedy growth. this is bloomberg.

mark: i am mark crumpton with first word news. michael collins attorney says there is strong evidence -- cohen's attorney says there is strong evidence that president trump new that he was going to

give money to the two women to quiet.e relationships house minority nancy pelosi says impeaching president trump is " not a priority for democrats." despite conviction for conviction of all manafort and gates deeply of his former lawyer. they told the associated press " impeachment has to spring from something else." florida legislative leaders are rejecting rick scott push to get school districts an additional $58 million to hire more campus police. they want the money to remain in

the states guardian program allowing districts to hire armed civilian security guards and arm nonteaching employees. a government killed 17 people at marjory stoneman douglas high school, governor scott and the legislature passed a law requiring all public schools to have armed security whenever. larry nassar is appealing his 40 year minimum sentence which he will serve if he is still live after his initial term. he pleaded guilty to molesting young athletes and a daughter of family friends. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.

joe: "what'd you miss?" kennedy growth, canada's largest medical marijuana producer, is on his way to overshadowing its competitors. the maker of corona beer has given canopy legitimacy that is massively rigor than the competition. it is now the biggest company on canada's increasingly health care index. there with more, details is christina or who covers in aiding cannabis and is with us from toronto. welcome. what is it about canopy that has become the defining stock company of this moment. what have they been able to do to leap ahead of the competition? christina: canopy has really widened the gap between itself and its competitors. it is in a whole number league things do constellation investment which but $3.8 billion into the company. that gives a 12 times more catch

than its next closest -- cash than its next closest competitor. they have pretty staggering metrics. canopy has been around since 2014 in one of the first instances to the chemical -- medical marijuana space. the ceo has been good at promoting the company and making sure it is the first mover in a lot of areas. attracting interest and investments from big players as well not just in canada but from the united states. joe: a lot of the enthusiasm for the space is beyond medical and about recreational. that, is theiro business edge canopy has over anyone else? is there brand loyalty in the marijuana space that people anticipate? what is going to allow them to maintain that competitive position other than the big cash pile? christina: i think it is safe to say canopy is one of the best

known names in the comedian canopy interest-rate -- canadian canopy interest -- industry. when many people go to the first time, they look at different product for the first time and canopy may be more recognized. size ando just sheer its cash pile helps that. we had news today that canopy has received new licenses from the canadian federal government allowing it to double its growing presence in canada. it has a very large grow opportunity in an area called smith falls. it will double the american -- the amount of flour it produces. caroline: so to be brand distinction to a certain extent. potentialother

growth? is this a new kind of tech stock? christina: that's a very good question and a difficult one for the investing community. canopy is worth $11 billion which puts it -- we have a chart saying it is worth more than a company like alcoa. it gives you a sense of how high valuations have gotten in the sector. excuse the pun. there's a lot of argument whether these stocks are overvalued. kennedy really -- barely turn a profit in its history and that will change quickly as recreational pot is legalized in canada. the real opportunity is not seen so much in canopy -- canada for canopy, they will use constellation to expand and they are particularly interested in the u.s. market. the ceo said he will not go into the u.s. until federal law allows it. that could change quickly with the midterm elections if the democrats get control the house. is very eager to get into the

because the american market is much bigger than canada. the global medical market is a huge opportunity relatively untapped as well. caroline: fascinating. we will keep an eye on that. we will see how they continue to analyzed. christina, we will thank you for your insight. coming up, gold is posting its longest rally since april. more on whether the trend has room to run up ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: it's now time for smart charts with abigail doolittle where we look at the markets with top technicians. this week you're looking at gold? abigail: absolutely right and to discuss it with me is luis. i love your starting charts read these long-term charts. talk to us about this chart. this is a map for any trader. >> first of all, recognized here we had a two-year top in gold from 2011. the breakdown here, and the bigger the top, the bigger the drop. we had a 45% drop in the price of gold. the bigger the drop, the longer the need for repair. what is interesting about these fascinating it is

everybody has been looking for gold to go up. we have been suggesting we are in a bear market for gold still. that's because the failure to get through 1400, failure to get through 1400, all suggests selling in the strengths. in this period, we had a momentum sell signal. the rollover through 1300 suggested to us that 1250, 1200, both of which have been achieved. there may or may not have a little rally back toward the moving averages on this chart. it came under 1200 and it is possible we simply continue down to our new 1100 which is0 or approximately when you were in 2015. to the big support, same level, 2008,from the support of

2009. what is interesting is this is the saucer. higher lows, higher lows, and we have had lower highs which signifies selling into strengths. abigail: i have to ask a seemingly impossible question. if gold continues to break down, that in terry -- that entire area congestion breaking down, if you do an equal and opposite measurement, it equals down to the lows back in 2008. could you see that if we go below 1000? >> i would hate to predict that at this point. let's take each step at a time. abigail: you have another great chartier supporting the idea that gold is not can rally anytime soon. louise: this is very interesting. it is the ratio of equities, s&p in this case, to gold. when the line is rising, equities are outperforming and gold is underperforming which

means it is either going up less or going down. when the line is falling, gold is outperforming and equities are underperforming. what is interesting is that each 1929, 1968, and 2000, where the peaks of the structural -- were the peaks of the structural bull market in equities. equities ares when in their structural bear market. here you have the structural bear market 2000 which did not give you any sign of saucer base until the 2009, 2011. now, we are in another bull market for equities. it is hard to argue that gold is going up. abigail: i would agree. that looks a gasol it uptrend.

let's bring emerging markets uptrend. -- a solid let's bring emerging markets into this. louise: what is interesting is the em is doing well out of the 2009 bottom and then it fell into a two-year trading range. it is now rolling over again. i rather suspect it could come back into this 45 to 35 trading range, and not be particularly important in terms of outperforming at this point in time. great insight on gold with a bit of a bearish view on both. thank you so much. caroline: bearish for the bling. abigail doolittle, thank you indeed. aramco pushes forth on its ipo path. -- whether reforms

plans are being put on hold. that is the latest this is bloomberg. ♪ --. -- latest. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ xfinity mobile is a new wireless network

designed to save you money. even when you've got serious binging to do. wherever your phone takes you, your wireless bill is about to cost a whole lot less. use less data with a network that has the most wifi hotspots where you need them and the best 4g lte everywhere else. saving you hundreds of dollars a year. and ask how you get xfinity mobile included with your internet. plus, get $300 back when you buy a new smartphone. xfinity mobile. it's simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today.

mark: i am mark crumpton with first word news. the white house is countering claims by president trump's former attorney, michael cohen, who says mr. trump reckitt him to make us money payments to two women with the express purpose of "influencing the election." sarah huckabee sanders was asked by reporters if the president is worried. >> i do not think the president is concerned that all. he knows he did nothing wrong and that there was no collusion. we will continue focusing on the things that americans care about and that we can happen impact on. mark: she also calls it a ridiculous accusation and --gests the present

accusation to say the president .ied i don't told reporters " think the president is concerned that all." guilty pleas's reverberating on capitol hill while there is talk of impeachment without evidence of collusion. >> i have been here 11 than a -- i do not think i've witnessed anything like i have witnessed over the last year and a half. probably american people have not in modern times. i have faith in the judicial system and it will work its way out. i'm sure there will be a bar -- will be other revelations and let the process work. mark: the president is defending the payments to two women who said they had affairs with him

and the president of the effort guilty pleacohen's was not even a "campaign violation." president said the payments did not come out of the campaign and that is big. hundreds of elderly koreans today said their final goodbyes at the end of the first round of reunions between relatives separated by the 19 said -- 1950 to 53 korean war. 200 south koreans return home after the end of three days of meetings. another 337,000 koreans will participate in a second round of reunions from friday to sunday. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: let's get a recap of

today's market action. we're talking about a five day winning streaks for stocks. there's i.p ended the dow ending down 88 points. caroline: "what'd you miss?" it is a pivot from aramco. they are setting to be hitting on an ideal plan. more is the analyst of bloomberg intelligence. bloomberg were talking about this in july that maybe they would focus on them because they are known in the ipo. as this one of the only ipos they were thinking about. >> this is pretty much the only thing you can see in perpetuity. and ifid let's shelve it it seems right, we will come back to it at a later date. joe: does this have significance for the oil price? in the run up to the ipo, there

has been a view it was very important for saudi arabia to maintain a solid oil price so that they could get a good reception in the market. thatthis create concern that is no longer an impetus for supply control? >> at the end of the day, they are looking to go for the downstream. more marginusing on on the refining side and chemical side. i think they're happy with the range and they have been very adamant about it. they can stay within this 60, 70, $75 range. they are more than happy to sit there and collect a premium also collecting on the chemical side. scarlet: you have come here prepared with the chart putting everything into context and looking at the bigger picture of saudi arabia and the state of finances. walk us through. setup inn see the terms of investments where you see decline of investment in the white line going down. slowdown asseen the

you had this big move lower in pricing. things had to pare back. is the foreign reserves. how much money is out there and how much money they have to burn. have seen brent stabilize, that has also stabilized. focus is creating economic zones and different ways to create investments to diversify oil and the chemical stream past with the have currently invested in. caroline: this was the crown jewel of the crown prince's view on how to diversify and inject money. this is going to be creating one of the most value this stick -- value ballistic money -- company. where else are they getting cash from? mark: the issue came down to disclosures. at the end of the day, what they had in reserves was their sovereignty. this is how they would finance themselves going forward.

as people started to pressure them, they were concerned about how much will they have to disclose. if they could hit the market in a different way, whether it be the debt market or joint ventures where they could chill the costs, that was a big move for them. that is how they could offset what they might have gained in the ipo market. joe: could you see this coming at some point? mark: in my opinion, i would say no. joe: did you ever think it would come? mark: no. i have been adamant from the moment he came out that this would not be something happening. it was a means of getting out there and showing they are interested in raising crash -- cash. it never had to come in the form of an ipo. scarlet: you said of the conditions were right they could come back. what would be the right conditions? mark: once they diversified the delayedfurther and they on somethinglity else outside of just the oil market. right now, this is still how

they are producing a significant amount of income so why let people behind the scenes where, if i'm further in the chemical stream, have more technological advanced economy, then i can disclose what is in my reserves because it is negligent hit the hard. caroline: this is why the deal is so important to them. mark: yes. it is a matter of collecting the higher-margin business. it is through five -- through refiners and chemicals. they have already started to create the economic zones and saudi arabia and saudi aramco have invested in other companies to diversify the portfolio ranging from pipelines all the way up and down. caroline: car companies. mark: car companies, potentially, absolutely. there is always the environmental side. they are talked about other means of diversifying away from their own because they burn a significant amount of fuel oil or their electricity. -- had youmight

diversify away from that? scarlet: it's our second decade-long challenge. mark: absolutely. scarlet: mark rossano thank you. scarlet: it is gametime. the ceo and founder of draft king talks about his sports book cap. app.e take -- sports book people take bets. this is bloomberg. ♪ oomberg. ♪

scarlet: "what'd you miss?" online sports betting has arrived in one state. the nfl season kicks off in two weeks and draft kings moved quickly striking a partnerships and taking bets through its mobile app in new jersey. the ceo joins me now.

jason, great to see you again. draft kings is the only company with a mobile app in new jersey. how big of a market advantage does it give you? it is just a few weeks. i think a lot more will get in and i'm certainly proud to be first. the team worked really hard and we worked on it for about a year before it was launched. scarlet: you are well prepared for this. by the time we got the ruling itself, you had about six months plus spent on developing a sports gambling product, right? jason: we started almost initially after they said they would take up the case. we have been working on it for almost a year. it was very much an all hands on deck type thing at the end. the team was working every night and every weekend to get it out as soon as possible. scarlet: talk about the numbers you gathered so far. it is still very in the early days, but there are probably some senses of size and scope

you could offer in market opportunity. what can you tell us? jason: it really depends on how many states adopt this. the more states, the more the market will grow. , it affects the opposite way on the state level. new jersey being so close to new york and new york does not have sports betting, a lot of people might be crossing over the bridge the first week of the nfl season to make some bets. it will be interesting. a lot of the revenue is probably leaking out of new york, and if new york is it next year, that will change things. ofs market is hundreds billions in handle and tens of billions in revenue assuming a good chunk of states end up legalizing sports betting. youlet: in terms of how moved as a competitor, you proved to be nimble and faster than larger competitors. how much do you see the business changing when the mgm's of the world start catching up and gaining traction? jason:. we love competition.

competition gets everyone up in the morning. if you have no one on the other side of the field, why bother showing up? for us it is about making sure we'll he stay at the top of our game and responding to our customers. if we do that, we think we will stack up well against the competition. scarlet: is your technology that much superior to the competition? what in particular gives you your edge and what is your competitive advantage? jason: first off, we are a tech company were a lot of our competition are hotels and hospitality businesses launching online businesses. they were still be fierce competitors, but the online mobile pieces more core. we also have huge database in the sports base. people already think of us as a place to bet on sports. that is a major advantage and we have that nationally, where most casinos only have the local markets they operate in. scarlet: how is your approach to daily fantasy different from online gambling? is it the same target audience.

how much overlap is there between the two circles? jason: quite a lot as you might imagine. about 80% of our customers report there already betting on sports regularly. i imagine that number would be higher if people didn't not have to admit it as part of the survey. potential he even 90% or more, it is a very heavy overlap. they are very, metairie. people tend to try both. if they like both, they do both. it is complementary in our existing database and will crossover well. scarlet: with the nfl speeding -- season starting in week's time, people assume that is the biggest sports bet on. is it more like college basketball where there are more gains and more outcomes to wager. jason: there is definitely a mix. college sports have a lot of games. nfl is still the giant. you ares gains,

probably right. there is such a big audience playing nfl and watching nfl that it is hard for that to be overcome. scarlet: online gambling meets nfl season and we talked about how you have new products coming out as well you are pretty excited about launching. the controversy remains and we can expect the president to sound off and contribute to that debate as well. i think there is a lot of people wondering if we reached peak football or whether there is some cultural fatigue with football. do you worry about less interest in the nfl that could hurt the daily fantasy or online gambling component? jason: i think the two can help each other. betting, more people playing fantasy should help grow the nfl viewership numbers. do not think the nfl is going anywhere. will they have a little up and down. -- up and down period? yeah. to say theyible

were on a record growth tear forever. they are huge and have a lot of really smart people there. they will do a great job putting a great product out there. i do not think the nfl is going anywhere soon. scarlet: how have the sports leagues changed the rhetoric toward gambling versus daily fantasy betting? jason: if you had asked me five or six years ago and said in five years would you guess that sport leagues would be supportive of sports betting, i would've thought you are crazy. it is amazing to watch. i think there are a lot of factors in play. ande are new commissioners they have been out front since they won. i think people get where the world is going. you have to adapt and go with it. if you try to fight it, where you are going to be left. i think the nfl will continue to grow their audience.

they're not trying to bury their heads in the sand. that says a lot about the ability of the lead to adapt and grow. scarlet: the owners see it to the commissioner see it as well. jason, thank you for joining us. we will see how the conversation continues to unfold in the u.s.. as netflix sina weibo bypass apple apple store -- apples apple store? whittemore ahead. -- has netflix found a way to bypass the apple app store? we have more ahead. ♪

caroline: "what'd you miss?" the app store revolt. a growing number of companies netflix and epic games are pushing back against the app store. for more, let's bring in chris

palmeri. talk to us about how much this could undermine revenue sources of apple and google because, for apple in particular, this is a hope for the services business going forward. chris: indeed. we have analysts suggesting this could be as much of a 20% hit as an earning -- on earnings for the companies. we're talking about $50 billion in profits each. that is potentially tens of billions of dollars of profiteer. joe: the nice thing about the app store is it is just easy. we all know if i downloaded onto my phone whether it is spotify or whatever else, it will just work. it is easy. can they replicate the ease-of-use by getting around the app store? chris: they are trying. it is probably not coincidental that companies are doing this.

netflix and the folks that brought you for night are the ones trying to take a lead here because they are in the strongest position. the theory is, these companies are spending billions of dollars on content or hundreds of millions designing again, and then these toll collectors get 30% of the revenues right off of the top. the idea is, can you steer someone to your own website and, in four nights case, they already do this. there are a lot of people that play the game on pc and they already have the customer service and billing working directly with the consumer. that is what they are trying to do here. scarlet: there's a lot of complaining by netflix and epic games, but have they taken anything to apple or google? have been needed to respond to these complaints and anyway? chris: netflix is only testing it internationally. epic has taken a stand and they have not put fortnight on the google play system.

it is on apple's app store. the reason why that is has to do with google being more of an open system and they are able to replicate that on their own more than epic is. the cost year, we had an estimate of may be 50 million in lost revenue that google is not getting because of this. one game alone. and, over 100 million that apple is getting because epic decided to keep fortnight in the app store. caroline: what is interesting from my perspective is that the eu regulators have already tried to pull back google's power when it comes to android phones, the placed are being so prevalent. google is fighting that. google is fighting that particular element. how much can a fight what is happening from netflix or epic games? will they be forced to bring down the percentage they take? chris: yeah.

you're not seeing a huge groundswell of other players. people in the videogame business are taking more of a wait and see approach to this. google is definitely phone or all the issues regarding privacy. particularly in the eu. their hand is not as quite as strong as you think it maybe given the power they have in their business. scarlet: what needs to be clear is that only the most popular online sources can risk not being in the apple or google app store's. everyone like the smaller stores -- smaller players do not have that choice. thank you to chris palmeri. it is now time for the bloomberg business flash. are showingfirms interest in homes. bloomberg learned amherst holdings has more than $1 billion invested into buying properties. is raisingpital

within half a billion to buy rentals as well. disney is coming up with another way to reaching workers in a tight labor market. pay uppany will now front to wishing cost for hourly employees that want to take -- upfront tuition costs for hourly employees that want to take classes. that is your update. somethingdustry has for everyone, including redemption for fallen angels. this week, there is an etf for that an account on the fact that investors tend to overreact. ♪ scarlet: the vector's fallen angel etf is better known by a ngl. angl. oversold are often because many investors can buy

investment-grade products. they may be right for rebound because of it. from 230 odd holdings come various industries. although auto bonds were issued in the u.s., a quarter of the companies are based overseas. do $1.1 billion in assets and carries an expense ratio of 35 basis points. since launching in april,a is crushed investment-grade -- crushedngl has investment-grade bonds. they get a yellow light with a notice for less liquid holdings. mainly, it's high-yield bonds. scarlet: don't forget to watch etf iq writer on bloomberg every wednesday at 1 p.m. new york time. joe: coming up, what you need to know for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪

"what'd you miss?" a mixed day for u.s. stocks with the s&p and dow ending the winning streaks but the nasdaq is climbing for a fifth day. fridaylooking ahead to when jace foul -- jay powell speaks. the u.s. imposes 25% tariffs on $60 billion in chinese exports.

china plans to match it. joe: i will be looking at u.s. new home sales at 10 a.m. eastern time. the housing data has been kind of soft. caroline: you don't want to miss the annual central bankers gathering. at 7:30ckoff tomorrow a.m. new york time. don't miss it. scarlet: that does it for "what'd you miss?" "bloomberg technology" is up next. joe: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪ retail.

under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver.

emily: imm bleach and in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." more evidence of hacking and attempts to metal in the u.s. midterm elections. facebook and twitter have discovered it accounts linked to russia and iran. they warned of an attempted hack into their database. earnings report from two newly public companies in tech firms -- in tax -- in tech. we will discuss. as elon musk basis great need from the fcc