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tv   Bloomberg Best  Bloomberg  September 29, 2018 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT

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>> coming up, highlights from the 2018 bloomberg world business form. leaders gather to discuss issues of critical importance. >> the post-brexit britain -- will be a pro business britain. >> there is a lot going on in the world and markets don't care. >> competition is the most important driver for innovation. >> they shared exclusive insight on their global concerns. >> we are working very hard to reposition our economies. >> the metals tariffs took about $1 billion profit from us.
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>> the market is pricing in a little more risk. >> it is all straight ahead on this special edition of bloomberg best. erik: welcome to a special edition of bloomberg best, featuring the best of the bloomberg business forum. it was a remarkable day in new york city, with some of the most important figures in business, finance and politics. mostcused on some of the pressing challenges. we interviewed many of them exclusively on the sidelines. the event event began by theresa may.
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and related to britain's efforts to forge new relationships after brexit. >> today, new challenges, including the rapid pace and threats of technological change are causing some to question their faith in the institution of global cooperation and what brought us to this point. they look at the growth of artificial intelligence and ask whether their children or grandchildren will have their skills to succeed in this new economy and they look at some of the tensions in global trade today. they ask if the system could be really adapted to reflect the modern world.
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my answer to all of these questions is a bold and optimistic yes. a post-brexit britain will be a global partner that will help lead the international response to those challenges. to our strategy at home, we will create one of the most business friendly economies in the world, driving opportunities and spreading benefits of new technologies to every part of my country and internationally, as a global britain, we will champion our vision of the future, a vision based on openness, competition, high-quality and intelligent regulation. we will be on the forefront to address the challenges facing global trade and build a dynamic and competitive economy that can truly work for everyone. i have always been clear what the united kingdom stands for
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and what we want to achieve as we leave the european union. our relationship will change with brexit come a but we will still be neighbors and part of the european family of nations and we will continue to champion at the same beliefs. that is why i am confident we can reach a deal about our future relationships that are built in spirit. we have put forward a plan for a new relationship with trade at heart. there is no other plan that protects jobs and livelihoods and meets our commitment in northern ireland while respecting how people voted in largest democratic exercise in our history. i believe there is much common ground in these objectives.
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we know that they would face increased board-checks. i urge the eu to engage with our proposals so we can move forward. to be clear, we are not seeking partial membership or trying to undermine it. we are looking to achieve the frictionless traded in all of our interests. the coming weeks will be critical. the prize is great. with the conclusion of the negotiations, the certainty of and implementation it time which to adapt and the guarantee of the future, businesses can look forward to the post-brexit world with confidence. at the same time, looking beyond the eu, we are absolutely committed to delivering continuity in terms of relationships and we want to forge the most dynamic with old
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friends and new allies alike. crucially, we also have a plan to deliver an economy that is knowledge rich, highly innovative, highly skilled and high-quality but with low tax. , let me say clearly, whatever your business investing in a post-brexit, whatever your business, investing in a post-brexit britain will give you the lowest corporation tax in the g20. you will access service industries in london. some of the best universities in the world, strong institutions , a sound approach to public finance, and a consistent and dependable approach to high
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standards with intelligent regulation. erik: theresa may's pledges made headlines around the world and , later in the day, bloomberg broke another exclusive brexit story. we sat down with emmanuel macron, where they discussed the negotiations between britain and the eu. >> you could have a second referendum. my question is if the british were to vote to remain, would you have us back? >> sure. >> then you would take us back? >> this is about history.
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ofo respect the choice british voters. i don't want to get into a debate. i am respectful, but i did regret the vote. for sure, but i think what we have to do is have a discussion on the existing referendum and to find the next phases by the european union in a single market. francine: -- erik: coming up, we will go back to the bloomberg global business forum for compelling conversations.
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leaders in finance share their questions if it's as rosy as it looks. >> we are in this debt fueled bind that is laying the seeds for the next crisis. erik: this is bloomberg. ♪
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erik: you're watching a special edition of bloomberg best. the forum featured to star-studded panels on the future of finance. i asked my panelists to assess
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finance markets in the decades since the financial crisis. here is an impassioned response. beenantitative easing has how do we get people to take more risk? there is no doubt they have been successful. we are at an all-time record in the issue of high-yield debt and the lack of confidence, ironically, the 10 year anniversary, we are in this debt fueled bind that is pushing up valuations and laying the seeds for the next crisis. just to summarize, the crisis was not about lehman brothers, it wasn't about the investment
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banks, it was about the collapse of the housing market. millions of americans lost trillions of dollars. it was a national economic catastrophe, but the post-financial crisis the change , has been the weight on what is going to happen in washington? what is going to happen with the european central bank as compared to the fundamentals of business assets? that has changed and not for the better. >> we are nine and a half years into a global market. it has almost been a straight line up. we are, for the most part, 30 years into a bond market. yields have only recently began to back up and they have not backed up a whole lot. what do you see in the future? what does it look like?
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>> if you look at portfolios today people who have invested , in equities, you need to do a health check. you do a health check on your own body hopefully at least once a year. every day you are working on it. most individuals don't do the same thing with their financial portfolio. they don't look at it. equities are probably way outside. they're fixed income portfolio fixed income portfolio probably has far to much credit risk and duration, and it hasn't gone down, so why touch it? there is no money in cash. everybody around the world told you not to have cash. they would charge you if you had it. if you don't have cash for the liquidity and if you don't have that, you won't be able to take it vantage of the opportunity. >> nobody ever says we are about to have a crash tomorrow, so you need to think about portfolio
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position before the event happens. now that i have given this gloom and doom part of the speech, we are in a period of great growth in the united states. the tax reform was a giant adrenaline shot. we have pushed growth by up to at least 1% or 2%, we are creating inflation on the back of this for the first time in nine years. the economy is running hot. the trump policies, whether it is the regulation, certainly pushing corporate america to go in terms of new equipment, hiring people and so on and so forth. we probably have another 18 to 24 months minimum just on the adrenaline rush on trump's policies as he has tried to
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reignite growth of america. you are advocating managing the tail risk. we don't have a lot of liquidity. first of all, there are times where we are worried about the tail risk. we are trying to buy individual company and sector changes data. experiences over things is a change in consumer behavior. generally, we are leading to growth and disruption which is counterintuitive. we want to go back to the cash flow companies. if multiples are going to come in, i want something that will grow into that multiple degradation.
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generally, we are holding back our deployment and moving towards a situation where we think there is sector growth that will overcome the inevitable correction whenever that may be. the next session brought together larry fink. they spoke with francine lacqua about cyberattacks. >> the number one thing i think about what can go wrong, i just look at our own experience. we have grounded all that is going on. it is a big issue and probably doesn't get as much attention. i don't think people are really
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internalizing the impact of what is occurring. >> do you all have to work together? do you need to share information to make sure cyberattacks don't affect large financial issues as a whole? >> i think the financial institutions are probably more prepared. i believe there will be cyberattacks on organizations that have under spent on technology and my first candidates would be state governments and social security numbers, so to me the problem could be coming in organizations that are not in focus. the financial sector has been under such scrutiny that i would say it is one of the sectors doing as much as it can.
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i'm not trying to suggest there may not be an attack, but the worry has to be in these other industries. >> does a cyberattack change the market? could it a catalyst of a market correction? >> one of the reasons and this is always correlated to positive and negatives, common sense has a lot to do with markets. at the moment, it is hard. there is a lot going on in the world and am told markets don't really care. they have been blessed sensitive to some of the things that might create shifts. >> i would argue right now that despite the big run, equities are cheaper today than they were in january. earnings have been so powerful and we have witnessed a decrease.
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the market is, despite the rallies, pricing in more risk. >> as opposed to a view of the market cheaper, find us an example of something that can change behavior and have an effect on confidence and how people deploy capital. erik: up next, bank of england governor mark carney discusses another global threat. getting businesses to disclose climate information. >> you get that better capital exposure. erik: this is bloomberg. ♪
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erik: you're watching bloomberg west. we have a special recap of the 2018 bloomberg business forum. mark carney was one of the global financial leaders who attended the event. he spoke with us. the focus of the conversation is his leadership on climate related financial disclosures. it had just released a status report. carney says there is increasing demand for companies to disclose climate related information. >> there was $25 trillion in assets. the task force comes out. it says this is how we should do the disclosure. three quarters of the globally systemic banks and shores looking for this type of information. companies are starting to
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disclose. the providers of capital are looking at it. they throw away the stuff that is not useful in been you get the better disclosure and real progress. do you are the frictions see that people don't want to disclose? >> i think the best companies, part of what came out is the survey around the world and you see all of those companies are disclosing at least some aspect in their main report. they are moving. this is a process you learn by doing. what is the $100 trillion to make their capital allocations?
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i think that keeping we are -- the key thing we are seeing now is you are getting more involved and it is a disclosure that uses strategic resilience, so how resilient are you in changing climate policies. >> when it comes to air pollution, water? >> i think what is relative is the carbon footprint. what is your footprint? theou have a plan, what is footprint of that? it is easy to say my energy use. the thing that is tough is to look at the supply chains. downstream, the footprint of the product afterward.
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you move to the first him at that tells you an awful lot and the more the market is disclosing, you can upstream and downstream because you have the information. >> some people in the trump administration have said that climate change is a hoax and there are rules that protect climate change does that help? >> i would take a neutral view around disclosure. there will be people who are climate change skeptics and others who say this is the absolute top priority and companies need to act. there will be a lot of people in between and the people in between i think will react to, policy around the world. 195 countries are still signatories in the climate contract from paris. what you need is to have that information. what you are seeing today is
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assets looking for that information. we have got 500 of the largest companies providing that information. you are starting to do a virtuous cycle learning by doing, providing the information and focusing on what is relevant. what is interesting is prime minister abe wrote which mentioned disclosure and they are looking to give a real status report of where the private sector should be. erik: still ahead, we review the 2018 bloomberg global business forum, christine lagarde on ai's impact on the economy, regulating tax and presidents and prime ministers speak with us.
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>> my goal is that by the end of the term to be very close to putting an end to extreme poverty. erik: this is bloomberg. ♪ this isn't just any moving day.
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erik: welcome back to this special edition of "bloomberg best." i am erik schatzker. we are focusing on the 2018 bloomberg global business forum. one of the day's liveliest panels gathered four past and present heads of state on stage. it was a vigorous conversation. former u.s. president bill clinton moderated. >> ok, we all live in an interdependent world. we want to work together. we believe that creative
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cooperation is better. you have to figure out what creative cooperation means in terms of how you are going to get the economy going, how you are going to reduce inequality, and how you redeem the promise of land reform without screwing up the investment climate and making people trust you. >> apartheid was once seen as the most intractable problem in the world. that could not be solved. but under the leadership and guidance of nelson mandela, we were able to resolve it. and similarly, now, his spirit, his values and his principles and his vision is guiding us. we are not going to have land grabs. that is never going to be allowed. we're going to make sure that as we embark on land reform, it becomes all-inclusive. it leads to nation building, social cohesion, economic development which will benefit all the people of south africa. >> it is one thing to say you are for peace and inclusion and
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quite another thing to achieve it when there is an unlimited number of money coming from narco trafficking to do everything possible to undermine the future you want to build. >> i built my agenda for colombia based on three pillars. law and order. -- law and order, legality, and entrepreneurship, because we want to be a country open for business. and the third thing, if we have legality and entrepreneurship, the consequence is equality. and that means closing the gaps. gender gaps, income gaps. and i feel very proud to be the first colombian president to parliamentary cabinet that is 50% men and 50% women. and i also feel very proud that we are mobilizing investment to technology, to agricultural development. and my goal is by the end of the term, we will be very close to putting an end to extreme poverty.
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>> what is your take in terms of where we are in the world today? how can we get other people who otherwise think like you to continue to be committed to global trade? global development? and how is your country dealing with the upheaval caused in europe by the massive influx of refugees, mostly from violence in the middle east? >> i think globalization has been a win-win situation in the world. especially for developing countries. the fact that we are lifting so many people out of poverty. but of course, you have the space in between what happens inside those countries that were usually part of the global society, poor people with low income, no education, and they will not feel some threats.
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that is why the european country it is important to make sure you have an open economy. trade. that you step forward on globalization. technology will drive this globalization, whatever politicians are going to say because the technology will move that. erik: land reform is just of the one difficult issues the president of south africa must address. he went in-depth on challenges facing his country in an exclusive interview with francine lacqua. francine: investors were concerned about a number of things. do you feel it is because they are expecting you to go too fast in reforms, too fast in cracking down against corruption? do you think you are part of the turmoil affecting emerging markets? >> you see, investors have been concerned about south africa in terms of our policy constructs on a number of issues. land has been one of those. and we are giving a very cogent explanation of the process we are involved in.
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another issues, like the instance of corruption, we are dealing with corruption quite effectively. the other issue we are dealing with is our policy on the mining industry, we are addressing that. telecommunications, we are addressing that. visa regime, we are addressing all that. so many of the issues that have been raised by investors are the policy fronts we are addressing. and we are addressing all those in a very proactive and positive way. but the beauty of it all is that we are including them in the discussion. we are collaborating with all role players in south africa. the unions, civil society, as well as business. you could not have a better outcome out of the process like that. francine: you also said that in your economic stimulus and recovery plan, you said you would redirect around 50 billion rand. right? where are you taking it from and putting it in? what ministries? >> we are going to reprioritize
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our budget. we are currently looking at where we can reprioritize and where we can get this 50 billion. that will be announced by our minister of finance in the budget statement. and where are we going to put it? we are to put a lot of it in small and medium enterprises. we are going to put a lot of it in agriculture. agricultural production. we are going to promote businesses in the townships and rural areas. we are going to focus on scaling the youth andg women so a number of entrepreneurs can benefit and become very economically benefited. but 400 billion will also be made available for infrastructure. we are going to create a mega fund for infrastructure to agglomerate a number of funds and monies we have in our
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economy. the private sector is going to be invited to participate. in equity, in joint ventures, in professional propositions, loans. and also promoting private partnerships with the target sector. so all this is going to lead to invigorating our infrastructure space. francine: do you worry about the weakness in the rand affecting andour infrastructure plan, also being able to repay your external debt? >> the position of the rand is a function of the market, obviously. it also has to do with a lot of what we need to do ourselves to put our economy on a better footing. and when the rand is weak, we obviously are concerned. but at the same time, it works both ways.
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with a week rand, it feels there are others -- with a weak rand, it feels like others benefit. we want the rand to be well-balanced to support the economic trajectory of our country. so we are working very hard to reposition our economy, to transform our economy. to make our economy more attractive to investors. ♪ erik: much more to come from the 2018 bloomberg global business forum. interviews with leading corporate executives, a conversation with the eu path composition minister and christine lagarde debates the impact of ai with baidu ceo robin lee. >> we will use computers to enhance human activities. >> you don't want to replace us. >> right, no, no. erik: this is bloomberg. ♪
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erik: this is bloomberg best, i'm erik schatzker. the 2018 bloomberg global business forum brought together hundreds of top executives, on stage and in the office, and many spoke to bloomberg television over the course of the day. let's go to the ceo of ford motor company, jim hackett, who talked about trade with my colleague david westin. jim: trade is a function of equilibrium. everything is kind of working, and business people can make acisions because yes, sadly, hurricane or some kind of fire like we had in the factory can hit you.
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you are used to dealing with that. but trade is policy, so i have two beliefs about it. first, it has to be updated. it has to be modernized, so many things have changed. but it has to be resolved fairly quickly. and so what we are urging our administration to do and when we are in china and europe, we say, you need to come to agreement quickly. david: from ford's perspective, the metals tariffs took about $1 billion from us. -- $1 billion of profit from us, but the irony is that we source most of that in the u.s. today anyways. we are in a good place. but if it goes on longer, there will be more damage. david: are you making changes in the way you produce vehicles? where you produce them, how many you produce, where your supplying chain is already? jim: no, really not. the trade did not change our thinking on that. we are more of an exporter in that regard. so lincoln is a hot product in china.
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we make that in louisville, kentucky. and so the 25% tariff has made the price of our lincoln not as attractive. we have had to move people in that factory to other operations because of that trade problem. >> with all that is happening in the world today, there is a lot of support for the price of oil. lack of supply, i would say. this disruption of supply. iran, venezuela, libya, and even on the effects side, i would say they have agreed, but that pressure has not increased as much. so today you have strong support for oil prices. but the demand remains also quite high. so yes, i announced that in june. i'm not sure it is good news to for high prices too high
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the world economy, even for the oil industry. you know, when prices are too high, you open the door to competitors and competition. the demand will fall again. so i am not so supportive of it. francine: will opec and opec allies be able to ship in of barrels to make up for the production lost in iran? >> in russia, they were ready to increase the production to replace part of the production which is not there. but they pushed the production up. is that .3%, maybe they could go to .5%. saudi arabia, went up to 10.6% but was then dropped. so the discovery is that the margins are not so high. and probably it pushes the price up. >> you are here during united nations week. so many world leaders. who has been on your list to make sure that you speak to what countries are most important that are gathered
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here today for the future of your business? >> we have business around the world, on all continents. the u.s., very important for us. mexico, brazil, south africa, china -- those of the countries -- those would be the five or six countries from us -- for us. >> and what are the messages you are hearing? >> they want to hear about our commitment in terms of investment, and terms of environmental consciousness, in terms of sustainability, and they want to know what else they can do to be more competitive. in terms of being more of a destination for investors. that is very important. i was this morning with the south african president in a round table. and south africa, for example, is very committed to reforms. even more inviting for investors. we have been in south africa for more than 100 years, but the last two years, we have invested north of $300 million. and we continue to be very welcome in south africa and very happy to be there.
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so they are talking to investors and asking is, what else can we do? they are very open to businesses. >> we hear stories about public pensions, and were stories of -- horror stories of unfunded or underfunded ventures. where are we in the private sector? >> statistics i have seen suggest broadly speaking, american society might be short by $4iring savings trillion to $7 trillion -- that is trillion with a t. it is clear to me we have what i am describing as a retirement challenge we must confront. otherwise it could become a retirement crisis. it has not yet done that, but it is time for all of us to take the right actions to forestall a crisis. that: who is the "us" in sentiment? is that private corporations, the federal government? whose responsibility is that?
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>> it is a shared responsibility. for the individuals, number one, if you have not signed up for workplace retirement plans, do that. max out as best you can. all individuals probably need to save more. for businesses, institutions, make sure you are offering a retirement plan. and one that has the right kind of options in it, which include both equity investments, but importantly, annuities, which are an insurance product. that guarantees against longevity risk. government, it is trading to make -- for minorities, for example, and most importantly, thinking about how we are going to repair the social security system. by 2033, the trustees tell us the system will be under more stress and strain. erik: one of the featured speakers at the bloomberg global
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business forms plenary session was the commissioner for competition of the european commission. she sat down with john mickelthwait and they discussed the extraordinarily timely issue of regulating big tech. >> it is a two-sided market. they have dual functions. they host the little guy so we can enter into e-commerce. they provide a number of services which allows also smaller businesses to be active in e-commerce and graph active opportunities. they are also the big guy themselves. bookstores, you know, everything. groceries, movies, the works. and they, of course, get all the data from the little guy. and we want to understand how this data is being used. because this is all about competition. because when we say innovation, competition is the most important driver for innovation. for you to stay ahead of your competitor.
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john: do you think the future is a bit like telecom companies or maybe what happened with microsoft many years ago, where you have a platform company which is forced to let other people trade and have access? think that well, i is very difficult to say. this is a revolution. things change. we haven't even seen what is coming with content computing, blockchain sort of really pulling off. we would probably have a platform economy that is much more diverse than what we have seen, which is why it is important for us to understand what is the new big? how are companies that benefit from networks affects, huge amounts of data, marginal costs, how do they compete? and for us, that is the important thing. john: do you think in some ways, competition law has been left behind by big tech? you have these companies where you talked about network
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it is very difficult to intervene until after they have created these, i suppose they are near monopolies, the way some people see them. margarethe: i think our principles are fine, because they are about human nature. we don't change, unfortunately. with our bad sides and good side, i think we remain the same. but of course in the regulation, we need to stay alert. big.se you can be a in europe, you can be successful, but you should not misuse your power. this is the story of the two google fines. very successful, very welcome in find they have missed their power for companies to not be as innovative as they want to, for consumers not to be able to enjoy the benefits of choice, innovation, affordable prices. that is where we have to be very vigilant. john: do you think tech firms
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have become too big, in some cases? margarethe: no, i do not think as such you can make that conclusion, but i think they can be much more transparent. my colleagues have made good proposals to ensure transparency in the relationship between the smaller business and the platform, and i think that is very much needed, the transparency and the willingness to deal with people, and to be much more sort of clear that they respect your privacy, your ownership of your own data, so that we as citizens feel we can build trust with technology. ♪
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erik: i am erik schatzker, it is time now to wrap up this special edition of "bloomberg best," our review of the 2018 bloomberg global business forum. one of the great debates centers on the long-term impact of artificial intelligence. many say it will revolutionize business, many others claim it will damage economies by a -- eliminating jobs. managing director christine lagarde and baidu ceo robin lee engaged on this topic at the bloomberg global business forum, revealed results of an iss study that appears to -- imfy the use of ai study that appears to quantify the use of ai. christine: the finding is that and we extrapolated from countries to the rest of the world. the conclusion was quite a lot of jobs will be significantly materially affected. when we look at those 30 countries, it will be about 26
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million jobs that will probably disappear. the second finding, i thought was interesting, is that because it applies essentially to those tasks that are repetitive and because there are more women doing those jobs, women are likely to be more affected than men by the impact of artificial intelligence. do you think that is true? robin: it could be true. but like i said, that is just one side of the coin. there is another side -- laboring, you can also say, it is kind of a repetitive. -- of repetitive. christine: you need to apply judgment. robin: yes, relatively simple judgment. it is not that hard. if you try to teach the computer to drive, it is not that hard. most people, when they grow up, they can learn how to drive. but it is actually very, very hard for computers to learn how to jive, -- how to drive,
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although companies like baidu and ford are working on autonomous driving, and we are quite a few years away from truly self driving. it is still highly autonomous vehicles, not completely free from drivers. so we will use the computer to enhance the human activities. christine: you don't want to replace us. robin: right, no, no. i allowed one more question? want to ask you one, because you have 40,000 employees around the world, many of whom are in china. are you enjoying a regime, and an environment and framework that enables you to research, develop, anything you want? robin: pretty much, yes. christine: too much?
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robin: [laughter] yes. china is a big market and we are a lot of people, and we have tens of millions of users who use our services every day. a lot of data is generated. we can use data to learn how to improve our services. so we do have a lot of opportunities to innovate. but that being said, there are things, how do you provide, protect privacy? and how do you make sure this technology does not go out of control? that does bad things to mankind. there are things that we need to worry about, but i do see more opportunities than threats. erik: that will be all for the special edition of "bloomberg best." for more interviews, analysis, and information from the 2018 bloomberg global business form and for coverage of the world's
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most important business stories 24 hours a day, visit bloomberg.com. thank you for watching. i am erik schatzker. this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity mobile is a new wireless network
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david: if president trump called you and said i really need you to come in and help will your country, what would you you say? condoleezza: i am happy to be doing what i am doing now. [laughter] david: you negotiated with north koreans. you condoleezza: when i first and heard he accepted the invitation, i thought, nothing else has worked, so why not? david: on the iranian agreement. condoleezza: i did not support that agreement. we are that agreement. david: let's talk about vladimir putin. condoleezza: i know him well. he likes me.

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