tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg September 30, 2018 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
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♪ eric: coming up on "bloomberg best," highlights from the 2018 bloomberg global business forum. leaders in politics, business, and finance gathered to discuss issues of critical importance. >> the post-brexit britain will be an unequivocally pro-business britain. >> there's a lot going on in the world, and at the moment, markets don't care. >> competition is the most important driver for innovation. >> globalization has been a win-win situation of the world. eric: they shared candid and exclusive insight on their goals, hopes, concerns. >> we are working very hard to reposition your economy. -- our economy. >> women are likely to be more affected than men by the impact
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of artificial intelligence on the labor market. >> the metals tariffs took about $1 billion of profit from us. >> despite the rally, the market is actually pricing in a little more risk. >> this is the process of learning by doing. erik: it is all straight ahead on this special edition of" bloomberg best." ♪ eric: hello, i'm eric schatzker. welcome to a special edition of "bloomberg best," featuring the very best conversations from the 2018 bloomberg global business forum. it was a remarkable day in new york city, with some of the most important figures in global, finance, and politics, all taking part in roundtables, focused on some of the world's most difficult and pressing
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challenges. we interviewed many of them exclusively on the sidelines. the event began with a keynote address by prime minister theresa may. she embraced the forum's themes and related efforts to form new global partnerships for britain after brexit ♪ >> today, new challenges, including the rapid pace and threats of technological change, are causing some to question their faith in the institution of global cooperation and the framework of rules that have brought us to this point. they look at who gains from free trade and ask whether this global system is fair and whether it can be made to work for everyone. they look at the growth of artificial intelligence and ask
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my answer to all these questions is a bold and optimistic, yes. and my message today is that a post-brexit britain will be an unequivocally pro-business britain and a global partner that will help to lead the international response to those challenges. to our modern industrial strategy at home, we will create one of the most dynamic and business friendly economies in the world, driving investment opportunities for businesses and spreading the benefits of new sectors and technologies to
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every part of my country. and internationally, as a global britain, we will champion our vision for the future of the global economy, a vision that is based on openness, competition, innovation, high-quality and intelligent regulation. and we will be at the forefront of sustained international efforts to address the challenges facing global trade and to build a dynamic and competitive global economy that can truly work for everyone. i have always been clear what the united kingdom stands for and what we want to achieve as we leave the european union. our relationship with the eu will change with brexit, but we will still be neighbors. we will still be a part of the
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european family of nations, and we will continue to champion the same believes, standing for freedom, democracy and the rule of law, underpinned by a rules-based global order. and that is why i am confident we can reach a deal about our future relationships that are built in this spirit. we have put forward a plan for a new, but still close relationship, with frictionless trade at its heart. there is no other plan that protects jobs and livelihoods and also meets our commitments in northern ireland, while respecting how people voted in the largest democratic exercise in our history. and i believe that behind the noise of the headlines and the chattering of the commentators, there is much common ground in these objectives. we know that the other models would not deliver business and would face either bureaucracy, increased border checks and all those. so i urge the eu to engage with our proposals so we can move forward. to be clear, we are not seeking partial membership as a single market or in any way, trying to undermine it. we are looking to achieve the frictionless trade that i believe is in all of our interests. there is clearly a lot further
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to go in the negotiations and the coming weeks will be critical. for the prize is great, with the conclusion of the negotiations, the certainty of an implementation period in which to adapt to the new arrangements and the guarantee of frictionless trade with the eu in the future, businesses can look forward to the post-brexit world with confidence.
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at the same time, looking beyond the eu, we are absolutely committed to delivering continuity in terms of relationships with existing bilateral partners and we want to forge the most dynamic and ambitious free trade agreements with old friends and new allies alike. crucially, we also have a plan to deliver an economy that is knowledge-rich, highly innovative, highly skilled, and high-quality, but with low tax and smart regulations. so let me say this very clearly. whatever your business investing in a post-brexit britain, whatever your business, investing in a post-brexit britain will give you the lowest rate of corporation tax in the g20. you will access service industries and a financial center of london that are the envy of the world. some of the best universities in
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the world, strong institutions, a sound approach to finance and a consistent and dependable approach to high standards with intelligent regulation. ♪ eric: theresa may's pledge at the bloomberg global business forum made headlines around the world, and later in the day after the forum concluded, bloomberg broke another exclusive brexit story. our editor in chief sat down with french president emmanuel macron at the summit in new york where they discussed the complicated negotiations between britain and the eu. ♪ >> you had theresa may here, you have brexit, you have for the first time from the labour party at least the hint that you could have a second referendum. my question to you is, if the british were to remain, would you have her back? president macron: for sure. ♪ erik: coming up, we go back to the 2018 bloomberg global business forum for more of the day's compelling conversations. this is bloomberg. ♪
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on the future of finance. i was honored to moderate the global investment outlook panel. i asked my panelists to assess how finance markets have evolved in the decades since the financial crisis and ken griffin from citadel jumped in with this impassioned response. >> quantitative easing has really been how do we encourage americans and europeans to take more risk, and there is no doubt by metrics that the governments have been successful. if we look at loans for example, we are at in all-time record for both the issuance of high-yield debt and at the lack of covenants for this debt. so ironically, on the ten-year anniversary of the failure of the investment system, we are in this debt-fueled buying binge that is pushing up valuations and laying the seeds for the next crisis. so just to summarize, the 2008 crisis was not about lehman brothers or the investment banks, it was about the collapse of the u.s. housing market, where millions of americans lost trillions of dollars. it was a national economic catastrophe, but the post-financial crisis, the
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salient change has been the weight that all of us have to place on what is going to happen in washington. what is going to happen at the european central bank, as compared to strictly the fundamentals of the businesses or assets we invest in. that has been the biggest change of the last 10 years, frankly not one for the better. >> we are nine and a half years into a global bull market. we are, for the most part, 30 years into a bond bull market. yields have only recently in the past 18 months or so gotten back up, and on a historical basis they have not backed up a whole lot. if you look into the future, what do you see? what does it look like? >> if you look at portfolios today, people who have invested in equities, you need to do a health check. you do a health check on your own body hopefully at least once a year. every day you are working on it. from exercise -- you don't do the same thing. most individuals do not do the
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same thing with their financial portfolio. they don't look at it. there equities are probably way outsized, if they have them. their fixed income portfolio has far too much duration and too much credit risk, and it hasn't gone down, so why touch it? there is no money in cash, because everywhere around the world, and governments have told you not to have cash. as a matter of fact, they would charge if you had it. so you don't have any cash, so you don't have cash for the
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liquidity issues you might need, and if you don't have that, you will not have the dry powder to take advantage of the opportunities. >> nobody ever says we are about to have a crash tomorrow, so you need to think about portfolio position today before the event happens. now that i have given the gloom and doom part of the speech, we are in a period of great growth in the united states. the trump tax reform, giant
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adrenaline shot to the market and to corporate america. we have gone up by at least 1% or 2%, and we have driven unemployment almost to the boundaries. we are creating inflation on the back of this for the first time in nine years for real meaningful wage growth for many americans. the economy is running hot right now and the trump policies, whether it is deregulation or tax reform, certainly pushing corporate america to go, go, go. go in terms of new equipmen plants and equipment, hiring people, and so on and so forth.
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so we probably have another 18-24 months minimum in the cycle on the back of the adrenaline rush from trump's policies as he is really trying to reignite growth here in america. >> if mary is advocating having cash, we don't have a lot of liquidity. we are picking individual companies. first of all, alpha not beta. there are times you just buy the market. we are worried about the tail risks you are worried about, so we are trying to purchase an individual company, and the sector changes, like data.
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the second thing, generally, we are leading into growth and deception, which is a little bit counterintuitive, because often as you get more conservative, you want to go back to the incumbent cash flow companies. but we are in an era of a devaluation and arising an insurgency, and if multiples are going to come in, i want something that will grow into that multiple degradation. so generally we are holding back our deployment and moving towards alpha plays and situations where we think there is industry and sector growth that will overcome the inevitable correction, whenever it may be. ♪ erik: the next session brought together blackrock's larry frank, david solomon of goldman sachs, and the ceo of credit-suisse. what are the most significant issues they talked about was cyberattacks. >> the number one thing, i think about what can go wrong, and how can it cause derivative problem for a business, is cyber. when i look at your own experience and the efforts we have around, yet all the
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pressures and challenges is a big issue that doesn't get as much attention as it deserves, even if it gets a lot of attention. by getting as much attention as it deserves, i don't think that people are really internalizing internalizing the first, second, third derivative impacts of something serious like this occurring on the sentiment perspective. >> do you have to work together? do you need to share information to make sure cyber attacks to not impact large financial institutions as a whole? >> i think the bigger issue is,
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i think that financial institutions are most prepared. >> i am talking broader. >> i actually believe that if there will be cyber attacks it will be organizations that have underspent on technology, and my first candidates would be state governments, those who possess social security numbers. so to me, the problem could be coming to organizations that are not in focus. the financial sector has been under such scrutiny because of the financial crisis that i would say it is one of the sectors that is doing as much as it can. i am not trying to suggest that that there may not be a real impact, but the worry has to be in these other sectors that have a lot of personal information. >> there was a lot of corporation. it was very organized. >> does a cyber attack change the market? >> one of the reasons markets are running, and this is always correlated to markets, confidence. confidence in sentiment has a lot to do with markets. at the moment, it is hard. there is a lot going on in the world and at the moment, marcus markets don't really care. that doesn't mean they don't react to the margins, but they
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have been a less sensitive to some of the things that might have created sentiment shifts historically than they are today. eric: up next, bank of england governor mark carney discusses another global threat, climate change and the importance of getting business to disclose climate-related information. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ eric: you're watching "bloomberg best." i'm eric schatzker with a special recap of the 2018 bloomberg global business forum. mark carney was one of the many global financial leaders who attended the event. he spoke exclusively with francine lacqua. the focus of the conversation is leadership on a task force on financial disclosures, which just released its first report. carney says there is increasing demand for companies to disclose climate related information. mark: there was $25 trillion in assets under management. the task force comes out, a private sector task force says this is how we should do the disclosure. now it is $100 trillion. more than global gdp. three quarters of the globally systemic banks, eight of the 10
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top asset managers, insurers looking for this type of information. now what i think happens is the private sector does what it does best. major pension funds, insurance, there are all looking for the step of information. what i think happens next is the private sector does what it does best. companies are starting to disclose. they throw away the stuff that
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is not useful and the focus on what is material to decision making and then you get better and better disclosure, better and better capital allocation and real progress. francine: what about the people who don't want to disclose? mark: i think that the best companies come across a range of industries and geographies, part of what came out today in the survey was 2000 of the top companies around the world. and you see that all of those companies, the vast majority of those companies, are disclosing at least, some aspect of climate-related risk, in their report. so they are moving. this is a process you learn by doing. again, i will come back to, what is material? was the decision useful?
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i think the key thing that we are seeing now on top of just sort of disclosure, what is my carbon footprint, if you will, is you are getting boards and management more involved, thinking about how this affects strategy. if there is disclosure about strategy, if i can use the awkward term strategic resilience, so how resilient are you to changing climate policies? francine: how difficult is it to measure this data when it comes to air pollution and water? mark: i think what is relatively straightforward to measure is
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the static carbon footprint. what is your footprint in your core -- in your so-called, scope one, in terms of production. if you have a plant, what is the footprint of that. it is relative to then go and say, i have my energy use, what is the carbon footprint of that? the thing that is tough is to look at the whole supply chain, downstream, the footprint of the product afterwards and the components that come in. you move to the first bit, that tells you an awful lot. the more and more that the market is a disclosing, you can see upstream and downstream, because you have the information. francine: some people in the trump administers have said that climate change is a hoax and they are busy dismantling a lot of the rules that protect climate change. does that help or hinder your course? mark: i would take a neutral view around disclosure of those issues. there are people who are climate skeptics and say exactly what you just said, and there are others who say, this is the absolute top priority and companies need to act now. there will be a lot of people in
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between, and the people in between, i think, will react to what happens with climate policy around the world. remember, 195 countries are still signatories to the paris and are putting into action and will translate that into action. what you need to make a market between denial and the truth believer, is to have that information. what you are seeing today, $100 trillion of assets looking for that information. you now have 500 of the world's largest and companies providing that information in a quite comprehensive sense. once we look more broadly, are starting to do it and really, a virtuous cycle. eric: this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ erik: welcome back to this special edition of "bloomberg best." i'm erik schatzker. we're focusing on the 2018 bloomberg global business forum. one of the day's liveliest panels gathered four past and present heads of state on stage for a vigorous conversation. former u.s. president bill clinton moderated, with president ivan duque of colombia, prime minister of norway erna solberg, and south africa's president cyril ramaphosa. ♪ mr. clinton: ok, we all live in an interdependent world.
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we want to work together. we believe that creative cooperation is better. you have to figure out what that means in terms of how you are going to get the economy going, how you are going to reduce inequality, how are you going to redeem the promise of land reform without screwing up the investment climate and making people trust you. pres. ramaphosa: apartheid was once seen as the most intractable problem in the world that could not be solved. but under the leadership and guidance of nelson mandela, we were able to resolve it. and similarly, now, his spirit,
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his values and his principles and his vision is guiding us. we are not going to have land grabs. that is never going to be allowed. we're going to make sure that as we embark on land reform, it becomes all-inclusive. it leads to nation building, social cohesion, economic development which will benefit all the people of south africa. mr. clinton: it is one thing to say you are for peace and inclusion and quite another thing to achieve it when there is an unlimited amount of money coming from narco trafficking to do everything possible to undermine the future you want to build. pres. duque: i built my agenda for colombia based on three pillars. law and order, legality,
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entrepreneurship, because we want to be a country that is always more business-friendly, that is open for a small, mid-sized enterprise to keep growing and innovating. and the third thing, if we have legality and entrepreneurship, the consequence is equality. that means closing the gaps. gender gaps, income gaps, and i feel very proud to be the first colombian president to have a parliamentary, equalitarian cabinet that is 50% men and 50% women. and i also feel very proud that we are mobilizing investment to technology, to agricultural development. and my goal is that by the end
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of our term, we will be very close to putting an end to extreme poverty. mr. clinton: what is your take on where we are in the world today? how can we get other people who otherwise think like you to continue to be committed to global trade, global development? and how is your country dealing with the upheaval caused in europe by the massive influx of refugees, mostly from violence in the middle east? p.m. solberg: i think globalization has been a win-win situation in the world. both for -- especially for developing countries. the fact that we are lifting so many people out of poverty. but of course, you have the space in between what happens for people inside those countries that usually were the part of the global society, poor people with low income, low education who now feel themselves threatened. and i think that is a european issue today, to make sure that you have an open economy, trade,
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that you still step forward on globalization. because technology will drive this globalization, whatever politicians are going to say, because the technology now will move that. ♪ erik: land reform is just one of the difficult issues cyril ramaphosa must address as president of south africa. he went into depth on challenges facing his country's economy in an exclusive interview with francine lacqua. francine: investors were concerned about a number of things. do you feel it is because they are expecting you to go too fast in the reforms, to go too fast in cracking down against corruption, or do you think you are part of the turmoil affecting emerging markets? pres. ramaphosa: well, you see, investors have been concerned about south africa in terms of our policy constructs on a number of issues. land has been one of those. and we are giving a very cogent explanation of the process we are involved in. on other issues, for instance on corruption, we are dealing with corruption quite effectively. on other issues that have to deal with our policy on the mining industry, we are
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addressing that. on telecommunications, we are addressing that. on visa regime, we are addressing all that. so many of the issues that have been raised by investors on the policy fronts we are addressing. and we are addressing all those in a very proactive and positive way. but the beauty of it all is that we are including them in the discussion. we are collaborating with all role-players in south africa --the unions, civil society, as well as business. you could not have a better outcome out of a type of process like that. francine: you also said last week in your economic stimulus and recovery plan, that you would redirect around 50 billion
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rand. right? where are you taking it from and putting it in? what ministries? pres. ramaphosa: we are going to reprioritize our budget. we are currently looking at where we can reprioritize and where we can get this 50 billion. that will be announced by our minister of finance in his medium-term budget statement. and where are we going to put it? we are to put quite a lot of it in small and medium enterprises. we are going to put a lot of it in agriculture, agricultural production. we are going to promote businesses in the townships and in the rural areas. we are going to focus on skilling the youth and women, so that a number of entrepreneurs can benefit from it and become very economically active. but 400 billion will also be made available for infrastructure. we are going to create a
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mega-fund for infrastructure to agglomerate a number of funds and monies that we have in our economy. the private sector is going to be invited to participate in equity, in joint ventures, in professional propositions, in loans, and also promoting private partnerships with the target sector. so all this is going to lead to invigorating our infrastructure space. francine: do you worry about the weakness in the rand affecting a, your infrastructure plan, but also being able to repay your external debt? pres. ramaphosa: yeah, well, the position of the rand obviously is a function of the market. it also has to do with a lot of what we need to do ourselves to put our economy on a much better footing. and when the rand is weak, obviously we are concerned, but at the same time, it works both ways. erik: this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ erik: this is "bloomberg best." i'm erik schatzker. the 2018 bloomberg global business forum brought together hundreds of top executives, on stage and in the audience, and many spoke to bloomberg television over the course of the day. let's begin with the president and ceo of the ford motor company, jim hackett, who talked about trade with my colleague david westin. ♪ jim: trade is a function of delivery and, that everything is kind of working, and business
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people can make decisions because yes, sadly, a hurricane or some sort of fire like we had in the factory can hit you. you are used to dealing with that. but trade is policy, so i have two beliefs about it. first, it has to be updated. it has to be modernized, because so many things have changed, but it has to be resolved fairly quickly. and so, what we are urging our administration to do, and when we are in china and europe, we say, you need to come to agreement quickly. from ford's perspective, the metals tariffs took about $1 billion of profit from us, which the irony is we source most of that in the u.s. today anyways.
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so we are in a good place right now, but if it goes on longer, there will be more damage. david: are you making changes in the way you produce vehicles? where you produce them, how many you produce, what your supply chain is already? jim: no, really not. the trade did not change any of our thinking about that. matter of fact, we are more of an exporter in that regard. and so lincoln is a really hot product in china. we make that in louisville, kentucky. and so the 25% tariff has made the price of our lincoln mkc not
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as attractive. and we have had to move people in that factory to other operations because of that trade problem. ♪ patrick: with all that is happening in the world today, there are a lot of supportive elements for the price of oil. in particular, lack of supply, i would say. disruption of supply, iran, venezuela, libya, and even on the opec side, they have agreed to increase production, but that production has not increased so much. so today you have strong support for oil price, but the demand remains also quite high. despite the high price, which is a little bit of a surprise. so yes, i announced that in june. i'm not sure it is good news, by the way, to have high prices too high for the world economy, even
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for the oil industry. because, you know, when prices are too high, then you open the door to competitors and competition, and the demand will fall again. so i am not so supportive of it, but that is a fact. francine: will opec and opec allies be able to put enough barrels to make up for the production lost in iran? patrick: opec, opec allies and russia, with the last opec in june, they were ready to increase the production to replace part of the production, which is not there. but they pushed the production
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up. russia is at 11.3%, maybe they could go to 11.5%. saudi arabia went up to 10.6%, but then dropped. so i think the market is discovering that the margins are not so high, and probably it pushes as well the price up. ♪ jason: you are here during united nations week. so many world leaders here. who has been on your list to make sure that you speak to? what countries are most
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important that are gathered here today for the future of your business? carlos: well, we have business around the world, on all continents. of course the u.s., very important for us. mexico, brazil, south africa, columbia, china, so those would be the top five or six countries for us. jason: and what are the messages you are hearing from some of those leaders while they are here in your town? carlos: they want to know about our commitment to their countries in terms of investment, in terms of environmental consciousness, in terms of sustainability, and they want to know what else can they do to be more competitive, in terms of being more of a destination for investors. that is very important. i was this morning with the south african president in a round table. and south africa, for example, is very committed to reforms and things that will make the country even more inviting to investors. we have been in south africa for more than 100 years.
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in the last two years, we have invested north of $300 million. and we continue to be very welcome in south africa and very happy to be there. so they are talking to investors and asking us, what else can we do? they are very open to businesses. ♪ erik: one of the featured speakers at the bloomberg global business forum's plenary session was margrethe vestager, the commissioner for competition of the european commission. she sat down with bloomberg's editor-in-chief john mickelthwait, and they discussed the extraordinarily timely issue of regulating big tech. ♪ margrethe: amazon is a -- it is a two-sided market. they have dual functions. they host the little guy, so he can enter into e-commerce. they provide a number of services, which allows also smaller businesses to be active in e-commerce and grab the opportunities, and that is great. they are also the big guy themselves. bookstore, you know, everything -- groceries, movies, the works. and they, of course, get all the data from the little guy. and we want to understand how this data is being used. because this is all about competition.
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because when we say innovation, well, competition is the most important driver for innovation, for you to stay ahead of your competitor. john: do you think the future is a bit like telecoms companies or maybe what happened with microsoft many years ago, where you have a platform company which is then forced to let which is then forced to let other people trade and have access to that platform? margrethe: well, i think that is
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very difficult to say, because this is a revolution. things change and we haven't even seen what is coming with quantum computing, blockchain sort of really pulling off. so we would probably have a platform economy that is much more diverse than what we have seen, which is why, of course, it is important for us to understand, well, what is the new big? how are companies that benefit from networks' effects, from huge amounts of data, from marginal costs approaching zero, how do they compete? and for us, that of course is the important thing. john: do you think in some ways, competition law has been left behind by big tech? you have these companies where you talked about network effects -- it is very difficult to
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intervene until after they have created these, i suppose, near monopolies, as some people would see them. margrethe: i think our principles are fine, because they are about human nature, and we don't change, unfortunately. john: [laughs] margrethe: with all of our good sides and bad sides, i think we remain the same. but of course in the regulation, we need to stay alert. because you can be a big. in europe, you can be successful, but you should not misuse your power. this is actually the story of the two google fines. very successful, very welcome in europe, but we find that they have misused their powers for competitors to not be as innovative as they want to, for consumers not to be able to enjoy the benefits of choice, innovation, affordable prices. and that, of course, is where we have to be very vigilant. ♪
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♪ erik: i am erik schatzker. it is time now to wrap up this special edition of "bloomberg best," the review of the 2018 bloomberg global business forum. one of the 21st century's great debates centers on the long-term impact of artificial intelligence. many say it will revolutionize business. many others claim it will damage economies by eliminating jobs. imf managing director christine lagarde and baidu ceo robin li engaged on this topic at the bloomberg global business forum, and lagarde revealed results of an imf study that proposes to quantify the use of ai. christine: essentially the
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finding is that and we extrapolated it from 38 countries to the rest of the world. the conclusion was quite a lot of jobs will be significantly materially affected. when we look at those 30 countries, it will be about 26 million jobs that will actually probably disappear. the second finding, i thought was interesting, is that because it applies essentially to those tasks that are repetitive, and because there are more women doing those jobs, women are likely to be more affected than men by the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market. do you think that is true? robin: it could be true.
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but like i said, that is just one side of the coin. there is another side -- laboring, you can also say, it is kind of repetitive. christine: but you need to apply judgment. robin: yes, relatively simple judgment. it is not that hard. for example, if you try to teach the computer to drive, it is not that hard. most people, when they grow up, they can learn how to drive. but it is actually very, very hard for computers to learn how to drive, although companies like baidu and quite a few other companies, and ford are working on autonomous driving, and we are quite a few years away from truly self driving. it is still i would say highly-autonomous vehicles, not really completely free from drivers. so we will use computers to
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enhance the human activities. christine: you don't want to replace us. robin: right, no, no. but there is -- christine: ok. am i allowed one more question? i am expected to speed up. i want to ask you one, because you have 40,000 employees around the world, many of whom are in china. are you enjoying a regime, an environmental framework it, that enables you to research, develop anything you want? robin: pretty much, yes. i think -- christine: too much? robin: [laughs] yeah. we have lots of engineers. china is a big market. we are a lot of people, and we have tens of millions of users who use our services every day. a lot of data is generated. we can use data to learn how to improve our services. so we do have a lot of opportunities to innovate. but that being said, there are
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constraints, like, how do you provide, protect privacy? and how do you make sure that technology does not go out of control, that do bad things to mankind? there are things that we need to worry about, but i do see more opportunities than threats. ♪ erik: that will be all for the special edition of "bloomberg best." thanks for watching. i am erik schatzker. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> welcome to bloomberg businessweek. >> we are joining you from bloomberg headquarters in new york. >> trump's aluminum tariff was opposed by u.s. manufacturers and aluminum companies. >> why investors are rolling the dice on cryptocurrencies and cannabis stocks. >> we need to take a moment to focus on th
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