tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg October 11, 2018 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
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not as likely happened is whole lot has changed in terms of that path and folks have overreacted to it. caroline: still the market sells off. every industry is in the red there. the dow jones for a similar amount. for the s&p, this is the sixth straight day of losses in the longest's losing -- longest losing streak under president trump and it speaks volumes to why he wanted to talk about the fed and the jay powell. with the dow moved today, it's one 783 points from peak to trough. volatility has come back with a vengeance. joe: i want to reiterate that we are at the lowest level since july on the s&p 500.
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it was an ugly last hour of trading. down muche point more. then, we had a week last half-hour. data.locks of -- lots of caroline: we rallied off of the lows at one point and many wanted to say that we are hearing from the white house that xi jinping will meet with trump in november. is he looking to ease the issue of trade? joe: i will think this is a market put where they see the stock market down but let's arrange a meeting with xi jinping. the market would love to see a deal. the general view is that they are extremely far away so even a meeting at the g20, how much can you bank on that? scarlet: trading activity picked up quite a bit.
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the s&p is up 80% from the 20 day average. caroline: volatility is up and volumes are up. let's start with our market supporters. look at the take a financials because the s&p 500 financial index dropped about 2.9% today. the kbw bank index is also lower on the day. we have this as the stage for tomorrow's earnings set up. this is kind of interesting. we have seen quite a big selloff not only today but prior to this. a four-day run on s&p financials and three-day down on the k.d. w bank index -- kbw bank index. last quarter, we had a 2% rise in financials leading to earnings. in the previous earnings season, it was about 3%, and the january earnings season, a 2% run-up. we're going into this season down.
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if silver lining would be there is any positive news out of the banks that could set the stage for a rally, we will have to sit with the reports say. have been talking about the vix and i'm looking at the move index because what we have seen their is much less implied volatility for treasury yields than we have seen in the vix which tracks volatility in stocks. the orange line is the one-month implied volatility treasury for yield, and it has been climbing. the vix index has been leading the charge over the past few days. they are moving in tandem and there is volatility. if you move it back to a longer time, this isf more a stock volatility driven story than an implied yields volatility story. abigail? abigail: let's dig into the six-day slide of the s&p 500 once again. the first six they since early november and the first time we
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have seen this in president trump asked's -- president trump's administration. the tax-cut are using the economy. gone toots have really far too fast as another opportunity. nervous thats are the tenor has changed searching for a chair. the s&p 500 down finishing in the lows after trying to find some sort of a bottom. the buyers are not doing that. the worst six days since february. let's take a look at the chart we have looked at over the last three days. it is extraordinary. this is a long-term chart of the s&p 500 in relationship to the 50 day average in yellow. the long-term buyers are in blue. we see an uptrend because the buyers are in control except when rising rates brought on
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volatility as the 210 spread widened causing investors to think about the price of money. then, the 210 spread narrowed. we had the s&p 500 going higher. down to, we see this the 50 day moving average breaching the 200 a moving average today in a way we did not see back your earlier this year or at any other time period since early 2016 when the s&p 500 was nearly in a formal bear market. this is something to keep an eye on. this suggests there is more work to be done on the downside. scarlet: great context and great levels to watch for. abigail and the marketing, thank you. still with us is michael. a have talked about this couple of times that earning season is due to begin at the end of this week with the big banks reporting. selloff and weakness into earnings season, how does this set us up? it is said stocks tend to do well during earnings season.
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will earnings save equities the time around? -- this time around? michael: investors can't wait to get past some of these distractions whether it be interest rates, italy, midterm elections, you name it. they are looking to put that behind them and focus on earnings. as everyone knows, we are expecting the third consecutive quarter of more than 20% year-over-year earnings-per-share growth. significant upward revisions of technology and health care. there is the opportunity here for very solid earnings season that helps put momentum back behind the markets from the standpoint. one of the things we have observed over the last several quarters is that companies have not been rewarded for beating earnings as much as they have in the past. the punish for missing has been severe. that is something to keep an eye on if the trend continues.
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we will see that tomorrow. if they beat their earnings come is that good enough for -- earnings, is that good enough for investors? we will take a look at the future of the market. i think they will be to earnings, but what they say about future earnings will be important and i think how much they are beaten by will be important. scarlet: as we take stock of the market close, we are pointing along withhe s&p 500 11 industry groups are down. joe: as we look at the close, one thing different today than some of the recent days is that the bond part of your portfolio is doing nicely. we so rates drop across the board. that tells you a lot about stock-bond correlation. is it still a strong diversifier? michael: it has proven to be in
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the last day or so. it looks like 10 year treasuries peaked out around 323 or three -- 324. it seems folks are pivoting toward treasuries as a bit of a safe haven in times of higher volatility. there was a discussion around the move index compared to the volatility index, the vix, and how we are not seen the volatility come through on the fixed-income side. interestingly enough, the spreads have widened in terms of credit, and they remained reasonably well behaved compared to equity volatility. most notably from the vix. it appears having some portion of a divorce applied -- diversified portfolio is important. from what we have observed from s, they have been buying shorter maturities in terms of one to three years like
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cash in those types of things getting more conservative as we see interest rates become more volatile. caroline: short-term debt is a haven, treasuries back and play, what about gold, michael? michael: it has been fascinating. saying folks often continue to talk about gold, mullet is the matter with gold -- what is the matter with gold? couple of days. everything is red, gold starts to see acceleration. it has that property. folks talk about it as in inflation hedge and all effects of things, but i view it as when correlations rise and stocks and bonds are moving together in , gold always serves as the for to fire in your portfolio. it maintained its value or increases in value. that is what we have observed in the last two days. caroline: gold is rising for a third straight day -- scarlet: goal is rising for a
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from get perspective krista -- krishna. >> the underlying growth trend has not slowed down much. that is what we're dealing with. the fed has said even absence of inflation, they have given up on the concept of r-star and other artifacts they had created and are saying they may go for tightening even if they go beyond neutral. they will of the day, back away from that, but that is what the markets deal with today. joe: could it be contrary to the notion that benign inflation will discourage the fed from benignthat in effect, a or steady inflation level combined with further rate hikes actually means all things being equal, fed policy is even more
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hawkish than we thought. krishna: yes. it definitely is. you see that in the rise of real rates we see in the market sector. having said that, at some point, when they start biting really hard and you see the policiesons of these in data, the fed has to back off. but that is not today. romaine: is the market getting ahead of itself looking at the assets and how they perform today? krishna: we have to put this in context. this is the ninth year of a bull market, we have had a decent run , but in the scheme of things, it is a modest correction. it asd categorize cathartic rather than life-threatening. caroline: when does it start being life-threatening? krishna: we are getting to a buying opportunity as the technicals warm up tomorrow i hope. caroline: so you think tomorrow?
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krishna: i think today, at the end of the day, it was looking like a buying opportunity, but tomorrow would be a better day. joe: let's talk about correlations. onot of people are focusing them. today we have the strong rally in long interest rates. will this be something that persists that bonds will do well if stocks have a bad day or are we entering a new era here? krishna: i think bonds -- all we need for equities and bonds to -- only fore equities is bonds to remain stable, then we can say the fed will probably not tighten forever. that is all we need. we are not getting that just yet because the real data has not slowed down. caroline: let's talk about breaking news because it seems the treasury staff advises mnuchin that china is not manipulating its currency.
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it will not to be labeled as a currency manipulator. i want to get your take because, interestingly, we have talked of xi jinping and china meeting with president trump. do you think there might be data in terms of the trade tensions with china in the u.s. as we see the markets react in this way, trump has said it is not because of trade tensions. do you think they are backing away from tensions to ease the selloff? krishna: i think the markets are not reacting at all to trade tensions, to say that is an overstatement. the markets are intricately linked to trade tensions. secondly, the rise in real rates if we get any relief on either front, markets to better. romaine: we are heading into earnings season so let's talk about fundamentals. the market could continue to sort through the trade issues and all of the geopolitical stuff because fundamentals were sound.
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what is your outlook in this quarter? krishna: the fundamentals are really sound. they're talking about 3% type growth for this quarter and may be slightly slower next quarter, but decent growth. the underlying tax things are flowing through the system and profitability growth is decent. earnings is good and that ends up being a tell when for the markets rather than a headwind. we need a couple of tailwinds. caroline: which sectors do you think outperform in earnings season? krishna: earnings are backward looking. we have to focus on which sector of the market has really corrected the most. i think technology rises to the top. it has corrected the most, has the best underlying fundamental trend in terms of execution and profitability growth. caroline: krishna, thank you for your perspective. looking protect outperform.
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caroline: we have breaking news and we understand the treasury will not be advisory mnuchin to say china is manipulating its currency. it is advising mnuchin that china has not been manipulating its currency. they released these reports that tend to advise on some of the biggest writing partners of the united states. findally, they tend to they have met standards and currency manipulation has not been being conducted by china. this is ahead of the formal announcement which we are set to get next week.
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joe: with this now -- with us now to discuss the market is the research director at the jerome levy forecast center. what is your take on the perennial question on categorizing them as a currency manipulator? >> 10 years ago, when they were rapidly building up their surplus, they were also building up and they would actually try to hold their currency down. you would call them a currency manipulator. i'm not fond of that term now because it does not matter to me. romaine: when you look at what is going on with regards to trade not just with china but with this upending trade system, do you see any risk to global growth as a result of this? srinivas: of course. what you have is the rest of the world is dependent on u.s. supply and demand. if you look at u.s. consumer
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demand compared to the rest of has arld, the u.s. current deficit meaning it is pumping demand into the rest of the world. we are starting to close the market or making it more exportst making those -- all of the investment behind exports become shaky as well. joe: let's talk about treasuries because they rally today. long-term, it is getting harder to find a confident treasury bull. someone that says the future rates will be lower than today. you are one of them. make the case. srinivas: here is the long-term case. it has been the case for the last 30 years of bull market in treasuries. if you look at the private sector balance sheets in the
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u.s. and the rest of the world, they have grown in relation to the economy whether it is assets related to gdp or debt related to gdp. what that means is that those assets are producing less and coming to take gdp as a proxy for the economy which means you need lower interest rates to justify and validate the asset valuations. on the other side, on the debt side, you need to make debts more sustainable. that has been the gradually declining feeling over 30 years. every cycle, we have seen the maximum interest rates well below the previous cycle. that has not changed. though the household sector has not leveraged the cycle, corporate sector is high. you can look at the m's places, leverages i. caroline: that cannot go on if an item -- infinitum.
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srinivas: no. could china force the hand? i want to make a link between what is happening with china and the u.s.. many feel china is a big buyer of u.s. treasuries. could they have the u.s. -- to the have a situation where they say they are backing away? srinivas: we are not dependent on them, they are dependent on us. they are very generous to us on -- they'reasuries not very generous to us on holding treasuries, they will treasuries because they have u.s. dollars and they have to deploy them in one form or the other. joe: basically, what you're theng is that as long as capitalist model in the west and developed world is in place, which sees growth of financial,
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ly no reversaltial in sustainable rates. srinivas: no. if you clean up the balance sheets, you have a long-term case for treasury yields to go up. from 1940 to 1980, what happened was you had the depression so there was no borrowing by the private sector and that you had the second world war which restated incomes but nope borrowing in the private sector -- no borrowing in the private sector. joe: right now people are looking at they want to hold treasuries or the treasuries in .he portfolio expected to do - srinivas: in the short-term, the potential for higher rates cannot be discounted. we would not think it would stick at a certain rate for long.
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if you're holding. is three years -- if you're holding period is three years, you will likely seeking. romaine: i look at the unwinding of the balance sheets pc somewhat of a correlation between a slight drawdown and the decline in equity as a prices. i wonder how much the drawdown and qe is affecting the bond market as well. the qe, how much it a , you could get opinions from all over the spectrum. i've not found a huge relationship. it is possible when the fed is buying or the central banks are buying to that extent, -- but it is hard to find that. caroline: talk about the global perspective. many feel the hedging costs have been a caps on where u.s. treasury yields -- what you see german borrowed costs going?
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where do you see the likes of age as well? we have seen such lowering -- asia as well? we've seen such lowering borrow costs. srinivas: that's true. the costs matter in the short-term and that is why treasury yields have gone up. the major reason is that the u.s. economy has been strong. that is the main reason why it has gone up. joe: do you see any change in the trajectory of the underlying u.s. economy yet? srinivas: not yet. the third quarter look solid. as we look into 2019, it will be hard to maintain these growth levels. we don't have any more tax cuts. spendinglus from the which were getting now does start to taper off. caroline: a long-term treasury ull, thank you. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i am mark crumpton with first word news. the devastation left by hurricane michael is now being measured. this dramatic drone footage shows what is left of mexico beach, florida where michael roared ashore wednesday afternoon. mexico beach took the brunt of the hurricane. president scott booth well saw his world turned upside down. >> our lives in everything we have is gone now. we lost all of our cars and everything. i don't know. it is hard to realize what just
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happened. surviving it is the most important thing i think. mark: what is left of now tropical storm michael is speeding over the carolinas on to way to the atlantic ocean. at least two fatalities are blamed on the storm. hundreds of thousands of floridians are without power. the situation could last for weeks. the associate press sites took officials -- turkish officials saying turkey and saudi arabia will form a working group to look into the disappearance of the saudi rival -- reporter. he vanished last week after going to the saudi consulate istanbul. jeff flake says president trump's contentious relationship with the media could have a ripple effect. >> using enemy of the people as a language and fake news borrowed now by authoritarians everywhere to suppress their on
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dissent. to excuse their behavior. the words of a president matters. that's why i have been concerned about this. mark: reporters without borders says it and to other human rights groups have referred to the case to the united nations working group on involuntary disappearances. president trump says he will not but blamed anwell out-of-control central bank for the worst stock market selloff since february. the president criticize the fed for the recent hikes. the president has been at odds with the fed. tens of millions of social security recipients and other retirees will see bigger checks next year. the government says the two-putting cost-of-living increase amounts to about $39 per month for the average retiree.
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that is the biggest increase in seven years. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. caroline: u.s. treasury de partments advised steve mnuchin that china is not manipulating their currency. in our bloomberg macro strategist. they jump the gun and got the news out there. >> this could be really big. despite trump blaming the fed for the drop in the stock markets, the real reason was knowing this report is coming and the potential wickets could say china was a currency manipulator. that would all but killed trade talks between the two. that would escalate the trade war to the next big level which would better equity.
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romaine: was this really risk. -- risk? i feel like this is every year. vincent: some analysts were really jumping on the bandwagon -- some of the folks i talked to thought it were three criteria that china needed to cross and the only crossed to. they issued -- two. they issued this report which gives time for trump and she to get together and have a chat and maybe get something done in the g20. joe: your perception is that traders have trade on their mind? vincent: oh yeah. absolutely. whichis the major issue is affecting both the equity markets, the fx markets, and others. joe: how do you derived that? how do you say with such confidence? vincent: you cannot see any rotation as you see sector go down -- any sector go down.
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trader, and is a former trader i love when people tell me everyone's is one thing and i'm saying something else. that makes me feel i'm right even more so. trade is what has been weighing on the markets for quite some time. china of the anti-recently with stopping people at the border, bringing back goods, and this is where we are going. if this softens that's rhetoric and xi and trump get together, we could see another rally. joe: let's see if equity and risk assets take heart. thank you. the indian rupee is strengthening this year but this year it has weakened as part of the emerging market selloff. we have someone from the jerome levy forecasting center. , you might noty have expected it on another day where we have big risk selloffs.
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the rupee gained today, and it is all because of oil, isn't it? >> pot rally is a big thing for e.m.'s. u.s. balance sheets have problems with e.m. and bond rally is big today. picture, pain in a lot of places and india has been getting clobbered lately. is it just about the oil import bills or is this something deeper going on that explains the speed of the rupee decline? srinivas: the oil increase comes at a bad time, but india's position, if you look at it, weretic economy is growing exports have been growing at 6% and 7%. if you look at any of economy, especially em's, if you're growing faster than your
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exports, it became's unsustainable. turkey is a perfect example. it is an opportune time that oil went up, and oil went up because of imports. romaine: when you look at oil, what other inflationary pressures other? srinivas: there is no inflationary pressure as such, it is the imports coming in. electronics have become the biggest imports. enough to buy cheap smartphone. that is what is driving the trade deficit. caroline: you say india is not turkey, what stops it from becoming turkey if you have this ongoing imbalance? they are definitely trying to support the currency with other passions. srinivas: i think they will in one form or another to the economy. they will slow the economy, put
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import curves, they did that before and will find some way. joe: we keep talking about india not becoming turkey. turkey is less turkey in the sense that their accounts just wanted to surplus for years -- for the first time in years. of the an early sign bottom coming into e.m. when you start to see the weakest cases having the smashing of domestic demand so the current account comes into balance? srinivas: the current account improvement is the first sign for a bottom in ems, but it is an early sign. in 2014zil for instance or 16, it bottomed in early 2015. it takes a long time from their. other things have -- there. other things have to fall in place. things falling
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into place being fed policy at some point being taken off the pedal because the dollar has a lot to do with this. srinivas: there are two issues. turkey has a significant amount of private sector debt. dollars denominated debt. the banks have laid off the business to the private sector. tanking, theomy is companies are not making profits and the debt becomes an issue. we will see how it plays out. joe: finally china, how does it play into the e.m.? we continue to see it weaken. the pmis for this month are horrid. how significant is chinese growth for the rest of the em landscape? srinivas: if you look at china's current account, it is almost at balance now. a lot of other ems depend on exporting to china at one form or another.
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making sure the stock markets we have are as competitive as the economy we deserve. we have 13 public equity markets in the united states and 12 are owned by three conglomerates. it is not common for you to buy an identical business and continue to run it separately, but stock exchanges do it so they can charge investors to connect to all the exchanges. >> so when you look at what has happened in the dow, what specifically do you think needs to be done or are you concerned about what has happened in the selloffs in the past 24 hours? fall.kets will rise and that is a natural product of the stock market. i want to make sure american investors who are putting away their retirement savings and their kid's college education that they are passing to access the capital market with the lowest costs and safest possible markets. how investors deserve competition. >> when people hear that rhetoric, they say wait a
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minute, i thought that was the ftc's job or department of justice's job. you say not so fast. you think the sec up to have a new office but to create -- i'm sorry, or look into these issues? srinivas: that is right. -- >> that is right. >> load this group to? >> it would look across the capital -- do? >> it would look across capital markets. the fact thatat we only have a few credit rating agencies, that shareholders only have two proxy advisory firms, and ask if we have the kind of competition in our markets that american investors deserve. >> you don't think we have it? >> i don't. he had one more thing. a lot of people take the view you mentioned, we can leave the competition to the ftc and doj. having done that for the last generation ha is what got us in this situation. we need to bring competition
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back to the sec. >> you wrote an interesting op-ed with the former u.s. attorney for the southern district of new york. a lot of people are familiar with him. this joint op-ed, you say these insider trading laws need to be reformed. what specifically needs to be done on insider trading laws? >> we have no statute in the united states as specifically prescribes what we mean by insider trading. insider trading does not appear in the united states. >> why? >> it is because of our history. statute toneral outline general trading. there is two problems with that. first, it invites people to explore the margins. i don't think that is a good use of american time or investors money. it undermines fundamental investor confidence.
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defendants do not know what the law is because the courts are constantly trading or mines. people in the marketplace do not have notice what is allowed or what is not. >> how do you feel on mosque -- musk? >> i won't comment on that. i would be happy to come owned -- comment on anything else. ahead, notwo a.j. manipulation is the message from the u.s. treasury. chinaadvised mnuchin that is not manipulating its currency according to sources. shery ahn is here to get the analysis. they have been saying this will be good for the markets. shery: we were expecting some sort of change here given mnuchin has been more vocal about the yuan depreciation. he has been making comments about how yuan depreciation has deepened.
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now, a couple of days ago, goldman sachs said we cannot completely rule out, despite the fact that when we talk to analysts and economists, a say does not fit the bill because the treasury department has a 2015 facilitation guidelines and they have three criteria. other factors such as large fx intervention, one-sided intervention. they do intervene but they are trying to support the yuan depreciating in trying to keep yuan bears at bay. we were thinking, this time around, there could be a change. the last country named a currency manipulator was china in 1994. we have been monitoring this and now we are hearing that potentially it would not happen. romaine: what is ironic is that this report is true, and that would help to prop up the yuan a
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little more. there were reports today that xi jinping and donald trump would meet face-to-face. branch.t the g20 olive the pboc has keep the best-kept the yuan -- kept the yuan stable. they think maybe this is a signal the central bank wants to give stability in the yuan, especially when you see market pressure. of the see any kinds u.s.-china stall yet? srinivas: i think it is too early -- talks yet? shery: i think it is too early. . the last talk was mike pompeo are going to meet about north korea. that last exchange did not do well. on how therustrated relationship was evolving. that much.ring
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also the fact that you have the new nafta 2.0 deal which was led by ambassador light heiser who is a china hawk. people say if he gains the upper hand in negotiation, with china that would not be a good signal. romaine: let's turn to tencent, this is a stock everyone talks about down 10 or 11 days in a row. the wallave news from street journal saying they might be pulling their music ipo they were planning. shery: what is really interesting, back in hong kong, we were saying we should have bought into tencent. i heard so many people saying that. caroline: it has been up 67,000%. so bad.t is when you talk about the 10 days losing $252d billion from january, you have to put it in perspective. their gains are really popular in hong kong. i cannot remember the exact i roll. who hadlleagues come in
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dark circles under their eyes. but theyreally popular are 40% of tencent's revenue in china is cracking down. joe: didn't they crackdown in part because of that? the videogame addiction? shery: yeah. authorities in china are getting involved into every part of society. if you see the game addiction which can go counter to social values, they will crack down on it. since march, they have not been approving these games to go online. tencent has been trying to diversify. we are hearing they were going to go on a road showed starting next week, but now we hear from the wall street journal that may not happen. they are also trying to elevate other parts of their business like cloud computing in order to balance out their dependence not only on the online gaming, but also on we chat it is huge.
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caroline: according to the wall street journal, president trump is looking at candidates to replace jeff sessions. ons is an ongoing debate whether jeff sessions will remain in his role and it seems it is being discussed to could replace them. we will have more on that when we can get it. romaine: tomorrow is the day we have been waiting for. bank earnings kickoff against j.p. morgan, wells fargo, and citigroup.
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bank of america will be monday. -- toore about what we talk more about what we expect, you have a senior bank analysis. i'm am most thing interested in his lung growth. allison: for loan growth, as with all of the metrics, the concern is the outlook. we will look for where there could be pockets of strength. in general, loan growth has been disappointing this year. after tax reform, there was a hoped he would get lift and we have not gotten that. if we look across the different categories, industrial has been holding up a little better. commercial real estate is tending to weaken. forward, the interest margin expansion has been the big story. orderinto next year, in for net revenue to continue to grow, we will have to have that loan growth to come through. we will want to know what the
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trend is this quarter and what they outlook is for next quarter what we can look for going into 2019. joe: i was just looking at a chart of goldman sachs stock which is really ugly. what is the big anxiety year? alison: for goldman sachs, there have been a couple of issues. one of the issues has been trading. they make more from trading than their other global investment banks here. last year, we saw underperformance due to mix and client product makes. this year, they have benefited from a covering commodities in the first half helping their trading revenue to recover. this quarter, we are looking at the muted quarter. equity trading is still holding with the downturn in equity prices over the last week or so, the question becomes what happens to the revenue lines benefiting from
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equity prices this year. . that has been helped by the strong market ipos doubling in the first quarter versus a year ago. caroline: briefly, the whole market is on edge because of either trade or u.s. trade treasury. we seem to be the two freak out areas for banks. alison: for banks, the risk is indirect especially for someone like goldman sachs. these companies are in a fair amount of money from capital market revenue to the extent we get disruption in capital markets which is not good. as a prices are helping some businesses this quarter but there is concerned to the outlook. caroline: it will be a busy day for you tomorrow. we thank you. jpmorgan, citigroup,
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third-quarter earnings before the bell tomorrow. joe: i will be watching economic data. numbers for u.s. import and export prices out at 8:30 eastern. romaine: and the numbers for u.s. consumer sentiment comes out at 10:00 a.m. eastern. caroline: that is all for "what'd you miss?" romaine: "bloomberg technology" is next. joe: have a great evening. ♪
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>> i'm caroline hyde in for emily chang. this is bloomberg technology. .n the next hour, tech tumbles is tech losing its shine. the microsoft ceo joins privacy regulation after google became the latest to reveal a security flaw. our exclusive interview coming up. cryptocurrency suffered. coinbase is se b
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