tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg October 14, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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haidi: welcome to daybreak australia. shery: i am shery ahn. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin. we are counting down to the major market open. haidi: here are the top stories we are covering. saudi arabia house to retaliate s a range ofweigh punishments for the missing journalist. considering a range of policy moves in china, including a worst-case scenario. the bank of japan governor tells
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bloomberg and a shift in the could rate will -- topix signify retreat from stimulus. shery: we saw u.s. stocks getting the most in six months, tech driving most of the strength in u.s. markets, the nasdaq seeing as best day and smart. seeing the s&p 500 being led by tech and consumer discretionary. we did get more easing of trade tensions between china and the u.s. but also corporate earnings getting kicked off by these banks. we saw mostly positive results. s&p 500 earnings have these in the past five years. the focus is on what will happen in the next couple of weeks p.m. we saw the 10 year treasury yield gaining ground for the first time in three days. given the magnitude of the selloff, we have to know when it comes to the dow and the s&p 500, they saw their worst week since march.
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let's see how all of this will filter through the asian trading session. sophie: stocks looking at a mixed start after last week's ride that pushed shanghai stocks to a four-year low. takingrs are going to be note of weekend warnings from the global finance chiefs over trade tensions and interest rates. a key decision for markets could be whether the u.s. treasury will label china a currency manipulator, as early as monday. on there is a bank decision thursday. we have trade numbers from india and indonesia today and japan. the final reading on industrial production, quite a bit of data that could drive sentiment when it comes to individual markets. we have slight losses anticipated. we have downside pressure for sydney. we are seeing wellington stocks starting off on the front foot off the quarter percent.
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sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. let's get you to first word news with ramy inocencio. morning.d the people's bank of china told bloomberg it is evaluating the range of threats to its current policy including the worst case scenario. the governor said yen volatility is normal. a psychologically important seven to the dollar approaches. he spoke as u.s. treasury reports they may name currency manipulator of china. ton the bank is ready retreat from stimulus, the shift will be seen in the target rate. in his clearest comments, governor kuroda said when 2% is close, policymakers can change focus. he noted inflation is around 1%, so there is no likelihood of imminent change. be the mainill
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sustainable factor of inflation. really accelerating in recent months. whether this continues or not, will be very critical. asy: sterling fell as much half a percent against the euro after last-minute negotiations with the e.u. a british secretary travel to brussels as speculation of the deal group, but talks were put on hold. the pause indicates another mimetic disaster for prime minister theresa may with a key monday meeting postponed. a political ally of angela merkel has lost its absolute majority in bavaria in a regional election that could have major applications at the national level. counting sayd vote
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the christian social union is on course to take 37% of the vote, down from 47% five years ago. it would be their worst performance in the state it has dominated since 1950. the president moon jae-in has told a newspaper north korea is in dire economic straits and can't afford to renege on a promise to wind down nuclear programs. years of negotiations have brought the north to their knees. he said kim jong-un would not be able to survive if he doesn't deliver on pledges after the singapore summit. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. inocencio. this is bloomberg. shery: the question for the u.s. equities market is whether the sharp selloff is over or friday was a pause. a fresh round of earnings, fed minutes and weak housing data
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will weigh on the trading on the street. su keenan has more. a lot of factors but renewed focus on earnings. su: renewed focus on earnings and geopolitical tensions. in addition to the tensions, we have president trump talking tough against the saudi's, that is an added pressure on the market. looking at the snapshot with the dollar rising on friday, we had in strong,100 coming this was a sign of the tech rebound up 2.8%. weekg the wild ride last on an upbeat note here that is questions about this coming week. we have a big round of earnings from the banks, bank of america, goldman, morgan stanley and netflix. we will hear from ramy about the earnings from the banks friday, coming in positive. will there be a follow-up?
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positive news, particularly in the face of the test test tough lending environment. -- the tough lending environment. lockheed martin and raytheon have significant deals with the saudis in terms of construction and defense sales. these can be impacted by the geopolitical tensions i mentioned. ibm and paypal going to report. a lot of the mobile pay companies like square under increasing pressure, so they will be very telling. let's look at the bloomberg. we heard at the top of the hour from shery how that earnings have been positive. continuing green. there is an expectation we will extend the streak of surpassing earnings projections. the trend could provide support to this very volatile market. ride lasthad a wild
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week, but we have more headspace to look at valuations at the moment, ipo's also a focus on the latest data. what do we see? action-packed week. let's start with the selloff. tencent is one of the spotlight stocks. its record selling -- setting selloff, a bit of a rebound on friday. this kind of sharp selloff, to thoseas given pause in the ipo market. tencent music being delayed. there are other interesting developments. goldman sachs bought some shares of an ipo. there are talks of introducing new shares into this environment. we also have a lot of economic reports in the coming week. there are questions of valuation. look at the fangs. they got badly beaten.
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a lot of the hedge funds are the huge buyers of these that turn out to be huge sellers. how they perform will be indicative of the mood of the market. in terms of economic data, existing home sales will be out. there is expectation we could see those sales flowing -- slowing the most in two years. this is indicative how rising interest rates are impacting sales. areall have new home sales we will get the minutes from the federal reserve, what they may have said about the environment economically and global slowing could play in. haidi: su keenan in new york for us. saudi arabia is running out of time to explain to the trump toinistration what happened a journalist in its consulate. president trump is waiting actions that could be a diplomatic downgrade or sanctions area we have ros
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krasny. just before we get to the current state of affairs, take a listen to what larry kudlow, the top economic advisor, had to say about the seriousness of what the president could do. >> when the president warns, people should take him at his word. he is very serious. i will not get ahead of the curve. he will decide the appropriate saudis if we find the were involved. haidi: the takeaway seems to be larry kudlow saying this is not tough talk. what are potential things the trump the ministration could do? one of the toughest things the trump administration could do would be to cancel deals with saudi arabia, the big sales.llion dollar
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trump himself has said i don't want to do that. it would hurt u.s. companies like boeing and lockheed. he doesn't want to go there. on that fromt members of congress including marco rubio. it is unclear what will be the other steps including diplomatic expulsion. it could be go slow on granting visas or cutting back access for saudi students to come to the united states. the trump administration and the saudi's could do this to each other. looking for ways to hurt each offr without really cutting their own nose. it is a balancing act. shery: saudi arabia has not had the best relationship with turkey. we see perhaps potentially better relations with turkey and the u.s.. we saw the pastor being
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released. su: a happy moment for the trump administration in the oval office. president trump want to have with turkey.ns he had no specifics on that, so i think it is a matter of waiting and seeing. there are points of tension. andy: geopolitical tensions changes coming at a time when it seems president trump is seeing more changes in his administration. we had the u.s. ambassador, nikki haley, resigning. and president trump is not thrilled about some people. can we see more changes? joe: it is usual -- ros: it is usual to see turnover, but trump has been notable for a. he spoke about jim mattis. he was asked in an interview that will run tonight on 60
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men leave, hethe left it in open question. he also said possibly quite famously he thinks secretary mattis, a former marine general, is sort of a democrat. maybe sort of not the kind of person he wants to have in his administration much longer. shery: there has been a lot of speculation over secretary mattis. great to have you, great to see you. for the viewers and users of bloomberg, if you missed out on any of the charts throughout the is youring, gtv function. you can reference and save for the future. this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪
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that last week's selloff has rebounded. let's see how things are shaping up with a deputy portfolio manager. great to have you this monday morning, a fresh week. i want to start off with one chart that shows one aspect of what we saw last week. concerns over fed tightening results, obviously it way that is worse for asia and emerging markets in terms of volatility. this what really was driving last week's selloff? was that a dead cat at the end of the cycle because the fed is not going to stop? sonny: what the fed really looks like today, it sort of indicates they could continue tightening. what the bond market has priced in, a hike in december, sounds about right. there is perhaps more of a chance as we watched through the
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theorists, watch through fiscal stimulus, there is an increasing chance the fed they look to pause in 2019. growthks would only be surprising to the upside. but growth is coming off a peek, global growth as well, which is giving the fed more excuses to pause in 2019 which would help emerging markets and ease conditions. haidi: how do you adjust your portfolio if you are trying to protect against downside risks? sunny: we are an offshore integer and get -- and yet our approach is to be cautious among expensive hearts of the market. momentum in very narrow parts of the market which has led us to be cautious. we see opportunities as stocks get thrown out and opportunities come about.
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at the moment along our inner merging markets. -- a lot are in emerging markets. i think at the moment we are still in this debate that is happening in markets whether there will be leadership from growth type names or revert back to the value names. we have point of view to stay focused, remain disciplined, don't get caught up buyomentum, by companies -- on cheap when they present themselves. shery: do you worry that the s&p 500 moved through the 200 day moving average? the stock markets and s&p 500 falling below that level. it managed to end slightly higher. the number of stocks trading above the 200 day moving average has tumbled. is this a concerning trend? in thei think the issue
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u.s. in terms of market technicals was some of the domestic facing companies or businesses to the u.s. market had not really enjoyed the upside. it was driven by narrow portions of the market. u.s. homebuilders, regional banks, you would think would behave quite well in a strong domestic economy have actually been rolling over breaking down early. that led us to be quite cautious , to see the domestic facing part of the market looked quite weak, then we spread to the momentum last week with a lot of selloffs in heavy check names. -- tech names. the markets are trying to work out where growth rolls off in the u.s., home much -- how much. it has been unclear. there has been a lot of growth ahead of tariffs, stimulus, and the fed has unfortunately no
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other option but to continue on that path at least in the short term. when you look at china, you see them trying to stimulate the economy again. is there any other way to boost the economy especially when they are heavily taxed economy? are there anything to be done? sunny: the chinese authorities are taking a more cautious approach this time to stimulating. werethe u.s. and china tight monetary policies. the u.s. implemented fiscal stimulus and tariffs. and nowt hit by that trying to implement fiscal stimulus and playing catch-up. the big measures china put in was firstly to implement an ecb style whatever it takes to support its global bond market which is substantial, to protect
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lower quality bonds, to support liquidity in the bond market. liquidity injections into the banking system, which will take away a lot of funding strains. the third is consumption tax cuts. that is important. the government is actually taking a more pragmatic approach to stimulating. they look at the next several years and how we can generate sustainable growth over the course of the cycle. the chinese consumer remains in good health, giving tax cuts to that consumer will be a more sustainable way of growing over the next few years. we had one round of cuts implemented which was $60 billion u.s., a nice stimulus to push in, and looking at another $60 billion at the beginning of 2019, a nice way to reflate the economy. haidi: great to have you.
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shery: let's get a quick check of the business flash headlines. goldman sachs lost half $1 billion worth of shares in a chinese company us stocks tumbled following the listing last month. goldman bought the in this as a stabilization manager during a 30-day period. on socialacklash media after raising venmo's fee.
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when the service launched, there was a $.25 fee on such transactions. two companies are merging and creating the six largest defense factor in the u.s. the current market value is $33.5 billion. haidi: u.s. banks kicked off earnings friday. taking a look at how they closed, j.p. morgan down 1%. city wealth group -- citibank, will for ago, doing better. ramy inocencio is here with the moves and more earnings on the way. how are we? ramy: the numbers are there, the matches to light this fire, but investors still really are not all that appreciative of the numbers. let me walk you through this because mostly numbers did well. you see the in -- you see the
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estimate on the left, the right hand side the actual. j.p. morgan beat by 25%, citigroup 30%. wells fargo 32%, but it was not enough. those are good numbers that actually investors should be happy about, but j.p. morgan shares fell more than 1% friday. that is because of what the cfo says is a global macro noise happening. let me walk you through revenue growth because j.p. morgan was in line with estimates, up 5%. citigroup was a miss. the estimate had been for 2%. wells fargo was 0.4% versus an estimate of -2%. piper jaffray is saying, we think it was actually decent. shery: rising rates will have an impact on mortgages. anything for loan growth? ramy: jpmorgan was the standout.
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i love saying record. $13.9 billion, thanks to the rates along with steady growth in core loans. i want to show you what is happening in terms of the earnings surprise area i will terminal, 2.4% is the earnings surprise we have gotten so far with banks reporting. not so much. look at consumer discretionary, up 7% and information technology at 4.5%. we will see if this continues because more banks are coming up. ,ank of america, merrill lynch october 15. morgan stanley october 16. shery: when will look at that and how rising rates have an impact on this going forward. thank you so much for that. last week stock market carnage may have stabilized, but fragility remains. preview asia's trading day.
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sydneyit is 9:30 in where markets open in 30 minutes ' time. he areas asx -- here is asx futures. looking at downside when we get into the citi open. you have very short going into the kiwi and the aussie dollar, we had a tech driven equity rally recovery on friday on wall street. i am haidi stroud-watts. shery: u.s. markets rising the most in six months. you are watching daybreak australia. let's get to first word news. saudi stock exchange tumbled as the kingdom
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threatened to retaliate against potential sanctions over the disappearance of a critical writer. president trump warned severe punishment if riyadh was involved in the murder. he entered the building on october 2, and turkey says he was killed by saudi agents. the treasury secretary wants a currency cause about competitive devaluation to be included in any free trade talks with japan. tokyo agreed to open negotiations on tariffs after threatened sanctions on the profitable auto sector. washington wants more concessions on trade even before the first round of talks is set to begin. present, -- imprisoned, this man is back in malaysian politics after at district election opened the way for him becoming prime minister. he leads the largest party in the ruling coalition and will be inaugurated later monday having
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taken 71% of the vote. he is set to succeed the prime minister in the next year or two. sony's venom topped for a second straight weekend. the surprise hit about a character from the spider-man comic books brief life into sony's plans for its own superhero universe. bornr bros.' a star is came in second while the neil armstrong biopic fell short of opening expectations with $13 million worldwide. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ramy inocencio. this is bloomberg. asian stocks climbed from the lowest level since last year and u.s. stocks are rebounding as well. we are seeing the biggest gains
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in six months and holding the longest losing streak. see how everything is shaping up. sophie: despite the recovery for asian stocks on friday, we look at a cautious tone this monday. sentiment remaining fragile, but some key event risks from the u.s. treasury. reports come as early as monday. -- book ending the week with chinese gdp data, getting slowdown in growth. looking at how things are kicking off in new zealand, you see the anz starting well. the kiwi dollar around 65 level, not making the finest -- finance minister in new zealand comfortable. over a missing saudi journalist. $72 a barrelbove after the biggest weekly loss
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since may. looking at this chart on the terminal, this after global stocks lost the biggest weekly drop in six months your that pushed valuation, the cheapest it had been in more than a year. we could see this -- [indiscernible] in hongophie kamaruddin kong. let's see more. adam haigh is with us. last week's carnage had signs of stabilization. a recovery rally in the u.s., but ready fragile now. adam: we are seeing that manifest itself in futures on the s&p 500. they are down .4% as trading gets underway. it speaks to a fragile technical picture. librarymy to in the gtv some of this chart shows you the averages.0 moving day
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they are all breached. it kind of leaves the technical versus the fundamental argument. they are all breached. it kind of leaves the technical versus the fundamental arguments somewhat at a bit of a bind given we are into earnings season and saw u.s. takes come out with earnings averages. they are all friday, which were broadly speaking reasonable , and earnings expectations are high going into this season. to see the banks give us decent numbers and bank shares still week and overall shares very weak compared to tech, which has the biggest losers amongst this selloff, that speaks to some of the real tricky nature of the sentiment of the moment. as we get this week underway, no signs of any of that easing. very early in the trading session. most asian markets have been explaining, looking reasonably cautious. a lot of this will be centered around any sense there is still
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stabilization in the bond market. last week the bond market did show signs of stabilizing somewhat. that will also be a key one to watch. will we see stabilizing of chinese markets? they are pretty key. will investors warm up to them? adam: it is a tough call on china. china is coming from a different standpoint with the u.s. equity market. it very recently was at all-time highs. china is very deep into a prolonged bear market and declines have been protracted over a number of months, more than 25% off those highs. a lot of what is going on with the chinese domestic equity market, a retail driven market is still being very sentiment driven. one of the key factors remains how policy response to the chinese economy that continues
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to slow. going to have a number of readings coming out this week that may give a shift to equity investors. we have the gdp print, retail sales and key indicators of how that policy tweaks are starting to play out. but we have also got the fact that the currency remains under pressure. we are around 6.9% for the offshore yuan which continues to be relatively speaking weak. what we heard from reporting on how the treasury may or may not as a this, the chinese currency manipulator, any signs they won't do that may give some support to a currency that remains under pressure, keeps sentiment fragile for equities but also for bond as well. shery: lots of things to watch for china this week area thank you so much. our bloomberg global markets
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editor or you can find his charts on the gtv library and reference them or save them for the future. gtv go on the terminal. the central bank in china is considering a range of threats to currency policy including a worst-case scenario. pboc governor spoke to bloomberg on the sidelines of the imf world bank meeting. our correspondent tom mackenzie joining us from beijing. it sounded like the pboc was racing -- bracing for more turbulence. about testing and bracing for all scenarios as the trade scenarios continue. it is unknown whether the sea and why will cross the u.s. dollars -- cny will cross that. they could label china a currency manipulator.
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you have the backdrop of the warnings from the imf about what this is doing for sentiment. he talked about what people in china are saying and highlighting now, that there is this sense in china this is going to be a prolonged trade war. listen to what he had to say on one of the panels at the meetings in bali. >> outside the risks from trade tension are significant. days, i present a model and predictor, what would be the losses for the trade tension. i think i am agreed with the imf production. telling pboc governor bloomberg in this interview on the currency that in terms of volatility he sees that as a
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fairly normal and expects to see a continued, reasonable trading range is how he described it for the rest of the year with the backdrop as he highlights and elevates a u.s. dollar. the currency, the renminbi was performing fairly well versus other developed and developing nations. the yuan is down 9% versus the u.s. dollar and is worth -- one of asia's worst currencies. the pboc governor highlighting what he sees as relative stability in terms of the growth picture in china, employment and inflation. we will get inflation numbers producing prices out, and we are expecting as well third-quarter gdp numbers towards the end of this week. we can get a better idea how those data points are shaping up . the pboc governor in the past stressed amongst other officials the currency will not be used as a weapon in the trade war.
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they would not be using devaluation to push back against the u.s. tariffs and give exporters a heads up. it was interesting to get his views on the sidelines of this sonnet -- haidi: china's ambassador to the u.s. gave a television interview. what is the messaging he has been wanting to get across? interesting that he chose fox news, president trump's favorite, to give a rare interview. he came out with this similar line, familiar from chinese officials that we have heard for many months, saying china did waswant a trade war but it forced, compelled to respond and would continue to protect its own interests. he also responded to the allegations that were outlined by the vice president, mike pence, when he described an
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all-out effort by china, as he phrased it, to try and change public sentiment, public views in the u.s., using spying and ,ariffs and coercive techniques to change public opinion. he said -- the chinese representatives that those were groundless and that the election meddling was groundless, and we have yet to see hard evidence from the trump administration that the chinese are or are planning to metal. previously he has given interviews to other analysts like npr, saying what we are not getting from the chinese perspective are a list of other priorities from the u.s. what they should be tackling. the u.s. said we have told the chinese what we want and want a reciprocal trading relationship. ofwill also look at the end november when there could be a meeting between president xi and president trump at the g20 meeting. that is one area analysts will
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be looking at closely. the ambassador was also asked about the personal relationship and said the president's' relationship is strong. haidi: our correspondent with the latest on the trade war and in terms of collateral damage, the bank of japan governor is the latest to sound the alarm on trade. an exclusive interview next. shery: extremists out on any interviews so far, tv is your function. you can find all the charts we showed you throughout programming on the right side, and if you have any questions, the lower part of your screen on the left. you can directly connect with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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you are watching daybreak australia. the imf world bank meeting wrapped up with a clear message, trade tensions are hitting global growth. governor kuroda among the voices calling for the u.s. and china to settle differences. he told us how he thinks washington's issues will play out, in an exclusive interview from bali. negotiation has been successfully concluded with canada and mexico agreeing to the conclusion, and with you and continuen, u.s. will negotiating discussion, discussing with trade agreement, and in that sense, there is no trade war. only between the u.s. and china there is tension rising, and china already retaliated in
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response to that. so among those trade issues, this u.s.-china conflict is most difficult and more serious area that i agree. since any trade conflict or make war will tend to negative impact on both sides, and some say eventually u.s. and make agreement [indiscernible] yen, which has been weakening a bit, how important is that trend which could controlled -- continue the dollar stronger, trade higher in terms of the target? >> the exchange rate in the
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short run will be affected by interest rate differential, that is true. in the long run, interest rate differentiation. particularly in the short run there are many factors which affect this exchange rate. to have inant thing your mind is that the exchange rate should affect the fundamentals. i think the current exchange configuration that are euro-yen, are not [indiscernible] hope if exchange rate -- no one can predict
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exchange rate. [laughter] chart, andonsumption i know this is a different kind otherwisetion than it was. the government are trying to make it hard to have offsets. how can you be so confident because we have seen many times in the past, i remember september 1986 when i was thinking, when are they going to do it? how can you be confident that won't happen next year? wages rising and getting closer? >> i know. 2% increase with all food stamp will be exempted from tax increase, and at the same time government introduced childrenal support for as well as higher education. could be onect
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third or one fourth of the last 3% increase in 2014. so i am quite sure that the economy, with full employment strongly thisite time, negative impact of consumption tax hikes, will be well managed. the government is coming to impact on thee economy. that is not other than governor kuroda speaking to kathleen hays on the sidelines of the imf world bank meeting in bali. they covered a lot in terms of scope, but it was interesting this was the first kind of clearest signal or statement that all this time the markets have been watching boj bond
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purchases as a sign of a move from then exit extraordinary monetary policy, a sign of still valuation. -- it is no longer the target area when they start to exit, it is the bond yields that will tell us that. curve yields, the yield will give you the first sign where they are heading. when it comes to the boj, they have to keep a clear idea of economic data in japan. this week will provide a lot of cues for what is to come. we will have industrial production this afternoon, breaking. we also have the trade balance coming up and exports expected slowingyear on year 2%, from 6% in the previous months. it is important what will happen to trade tensions. japan, a key member of the east asia supply chain. this will decide what happens to
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prices as the firm decides whether they will spend on wages. and yield it gets a clear it look at cpi data friday. haidi: with inflation around 1%, pretty stubborn. all this talk of potential exit from the boj policies pretty academic at this point. governor kuroda saying it is at 1%. we will keep things where they are. yearen it comes to the 10 jgb. interestingly the imf and world bank meetings in bali. we had more information about this u.s.-japan trade talks. competitive to devaluation is anotherthis, so indicator of currency trade, how the collateral damage is being
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wrapped up, and japan is one of the most vulnerable nations given how export dependent it is. wondering if there is something we saw in the nafta 2.0 deal. they did have a currency cause. any country tode have a free-trade deal with a nonmarket economy, in other words, china and we will see what comes out of these trade talks. if you missed out on any of the stories that we showed you through our programming, dayb , daybreak, has all the stories summarized. dayb on the bloomberg am of the bloomberg anywhere app, customize your settings. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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flash headlines. athenahealth is attracting interest from five potential bidders as auction for their health record technology company begins. these countries are considering bids for the massachusetts-based company. shery: an indian newspaper said amazon offered $400 million for a minority stake in spencer's retail. the deal is believed to be in the final stages but being held up by violation concerns great both companies declined to comment. the paper reported earlier alibaba was in talks to acquire a minority stake. haidi: the world's biggest iron ore miner it will give record output for a second straight quarter on monday. for as demand is driven less polluting grades continues. their growing from cremeans
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largely driven by china. rio tinto and bhp give updates on tuesday and wednesday. that is almost it for daybreak australia. trading in new zealand is getting underway. we are a few minutes away from the start of trading. not as optimistic given the recovery rally in asia and in u.s. with the tech rebound. we are seeing upside when it comes to kiwi stocks area they have root relatively resilient throughout all of this. the kiwi dollar 65.01, seeing a record number of shorts betting against the greenback and kiwi dollar, bearish sentiment on the aussie dollar as well. sydney futures looking off session lows but looking at weakness in the open. shery: investors will be watching economic data out of asia. we have china's ppi and gdp
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[captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org >> a very good morning, i am heidi in sydney. >> shane: i am shery ahn. "bloomberg to daybreak: asia." >> our top stories this monday, pacific markets off to a mixed start after confidence was shaken after the biggest slide in quits in six months. it is considering a range of policies, include wag
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