tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg October 22, 2018 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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haidi: a very good morning. australian markets have just opened for trade. shery: i'm shery ahn. welcome to "daybreak: asia." haidi: our top stories this tuesday, asian equities suffered declines after losses on wall street overnight. the dollar rising. italy refused to back down on its spending plans. commissioners may reject the budget. president trump signals a tough stance on saudi arabia saying
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he's not satisfied with the riyadh's explanation on jamal khashoggi's death. shery: let's get a check of how market started trading on wall street. we saw a bit of a mixed picture. the dow down 0.5% while the s&p 500 was pulled lower by energy and financial stocks. 30% of s&p 500 companies reporting this week. investors are focused on those reports. we had stocks boosting the index higher. this week we have earnings from the likes of microsoft, amazon, and alphabet. dollar index touching a two-month high as well. this will play into the markets in asia, haidi. haidi: we are looking like a pretty weak open as we get into trading in asia. australiak at how opened, just coming online, pretty flat at the moment.
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looking for some declines when it comes to the shakiness, commodities future weakness, metals weighing on some of the miners, as well as concerns over fluctuation in oil price volatility as well. new zealand coming back online. we are off session lows, but still up 0.8%. we are seeing some weakness in both seoul and tokyo. we are looking ahead to a bank indonesia decision, interesting timing as we have the u.s. dollar index potentially heading to its highest for the year to put pressure on asian currencies. let's get you the first word news with jessica summers. jessica: theresa may has told u.k. lawmakers there is a scenario where it would be preferable to extend the post-brexit transition. may said remaining under e u
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regulations and inside the customs union would be better than operating the backstop. conservatives say that would be a betrayal. is turning upp the heat on saudi arabia. he says he's not satisfied with the explanation of what happened to generalist jet -- to journalist jamal khashoggi. investigators will brief him on the killing. he told "usa today" that th was a plotea that went wrong. son-in-law isp's downplaying saudi arabia's role in the killing of khashoggi. asked if the kingdom has been deceptive, jared kushner said he sees deception every day both in the middle east and in washington. kushner said he has told the crown prince to be transparent about the death. u.s. national security advisor
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john bolton is in moscow to explain why president trump wants to abandon a 30-year-old arms treaty. he met members of the russian security council and will have talks with president putin. moscow said it is disappointed that the u.s. wants to drop the deal on missiles and denies it has been developing rockets in violation of the treaty. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. haidi: thank you. diving back into the u.s. markets where shares led declines, but gains boosted tech. track for0 remains on the worst month since august 2015. su keenan joining us with more. we saw tech stocks and consumer stocks gain ground. su: there were a lot of gyrations throughout the day.
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we ended mostly lower. the bellwether stocks have yet to report earnings. they will this week. this is a week of waiting. notice the s&p financials and the energy index, the weak spot in the market as the dollar reaches a two-month high. let's look at the banks. they were the strength of the market with the exception of netflix, which was slightly down , as it announced it was putting out a $2 billion in junk bonds to finance new shows. take a look at some of the earnings and other movers. bristol-myers continuing a three-day selling round, the worst losing streak since 2016. a lot of disappointment. k alexa is an energy holding company. crocs benefiting from a survey
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showing teens are interested in their product. cannabis will be on the stock market as of tuesday in the u.s., many thinking that will halt the slide. let's go into the bloomberg, look at a key issue. that is the margins. the s&p 500 companies who report earnings, you look at the nine year trend, the white line up over 2%. marginsincreased accounting for the earnings growth. can that continue is just one of the questions many are asking. shery: caterpillar, one key company we are watching, they report tuesday. they are rising after hours. why? : they put out their machine equipment sales on the eve of reporting their earnings. they came out positive.
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the trading after-hours a bit muted but on the plus side. you seen caterpillar under pressure as the tariff news has rained. are impacted is going to be a big issue. it has lost a lot of its gains. what they report was net positive equipment sales. globally they've seen an increase. a lot of analysts say we are going to get a strong report. investors will be keying in on anything negative. they view this as a glass half empty point of view. this is a stock that has been fairly valued. is its valuation going to be boosted by the details they give us? a lot going on in the commodities space. a lady in is headed for a record. what is the kind of divergent story you are seeing there?
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su: quickly told oil, you look at the 90 day picture, two weeks ago we were at a four-year high from west texas intermediate in the u.s. it is now for the fourth session below $70. it is in a holding pattern as one trader said. you've got a 1-2 punch. the saudi arabia and energy ministers saying they are not going to use oil as a weapon, that reduced that concern. then there is a huge buildup in u.s. inventories. that means lower prices short-term. let's look at the metals. ,n the regular session palladium on fire. it is close to a record. two things going on here. you had a tight supply situation and then you have president trump threatening to pull out of the nuclear accord with russia, the biggest producer of palladium.
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it is a very important metal. citigroup saying this is the tightest market in decades. that has hedge funds piling in. haidi: su keenan in new york there. questions, skepticism abound when it comes to the jamal khashoggi place. -- jamal khashoggi case. shery: first, why our next guest thinks the u.s. economy is not as resilient as headlines suggest. this is bloomberg. ♪
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is indonesia's economic problem child position no longer? >> i think you hit it on the head. toy have done so much support their currency. talk about a poster child for a better currency. they really go to the top of the list. but let's look at what indonesia has done. most people say they are not going to hike rates again. what you see here is the seven-day rate. here you got five -- that is a big line, isn't it? anyway, you've got five in may, and the rupiah stabilizing. so people say, that is why they can sit back, they can relax. there are some who don't agree. of the bank indonesia has left the door open
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to more rate hikes. everyone knows he said they are committed to frontload it preemptive policy to counter these heavy rupiah stresses. yet that really clear rate hikes and the progress they've made are enough to keep the rupiah steady. and one more thing i have to mention, people are saying maybe this has something to do with the big influx of tourists. i went and changed a lot of dollars to rupiah while i was there. maybe that is a factor as well. rateng as you've got more hikes expected, that current account improvement trend not firmly established, bloomberg economics, a 25 basis point hike today, just to give that rupiah a little more support. shery: wasn't it gorgeous? >> amazing. what can i say?
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shery: what else is on the central bank watchlist? >> italy for sure. the fact that their budget battle continues with the e.u., the government saying today, with got to help our citizens, she said the decision to raise spending and cut taxes is difficult, but necessary. the italians are insisting, we are going to meet that 2.4% target. the leadership not believing them. here's what the prime minister said. target is our upper limit. we can still reassess during the budget implementation a containment so we don't necessarily need to reach that 2.4%. for sure we won't exceeded. shery: saying it loud and clear. the bureaucracy in brussels still pushing back. this uncertainty for the economy, for the markets, is
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continuing as the european central bank gets ready for its meeting on thursday. i don't think this will deter mario draghi from doing anything, but certainly something that may be mentioned at the press conference. shery: kathleen hays, thank you so much. despite a slump in equities and a rise in dollar, few economists are concerned that financial conditions could strangle the second longest u.s. expansion on record. our next guest says the economy may not be as resilient. let's bring in lakshman achuthan. when it comes to the equity markets, we have seen these economically sensitive housing stocks throughout the year. is this signaling something? lakshman: i think it is. there is a weakening in the housing market, in particular
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with home price growth. our leading indicator has turned down, very convincingly -- in fact the growth rate hasn't been as low as it is now since 2009. that is saying something. the reason that is important is it is part of the households biggest investment next of stocks. stocks are second to the house itself. withansfers a feeling respect to the wealth effect. that is already starting to show up. we've had a couple back-to-back weaker than expected retail sales reports going into the holiday season. when you look at some other data, i think it is coming off the shine. it has been drifting down a bit. that is kind of remarkable given all these one offs that have been pushing the economy to the
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upside. shery: president trump talking about tax cut 2.0 right now. spending,deficit energy boom for the ages, all these things have been pushing to the upside. shery: and yet the fed would still be normalizing rates from a very unprecedented qe situation. unless the economy really drifts lower, would the fed act? lakshman: right now i think the market is pricing in several rate hikes through next year. some of the street houses have as much as five rate hikes through the end of next year. i can pretty much guarantee you that is not going to happen. we already have the economy itself, despite all these huge pushes to the upside, and inflation itself is rolling over. we have headline cpi
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year-over-year at a seven-month low. core cpi year-over-year is at a five-month low. that is not noise. i think it is going to be difficult to keep that hawkishness. is there a potential that you see the read through when it comes to tariffs take place? lakshman: you could have these and that is tariffs probably going to show up in gdp. knowing that the tariffs are coming, there's a lot of purchasing right in front of tariffut i think the situation is actually the second hit from kind of a 2-3 -- 1-2 punch. we have the global slowdown that nobody saw coming accept the leading indexes back in january. now people are coming to terms
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with the fact that the world is slowing and the u.s. seems to be out of step, but i think it is along for the ride as well. on top of that, you have the tariffs situation. i think people are getting the story a little backwards. it is a cyclical downturn on top of the tariffs. there's maybe a misread that the u.s. is somehow superstrong and china is super week. -- weak. shery: i question the direct correlation between the slowdown or the moderation of growth you are seeing in the u.s. as being a direct result of the trade tariffs. are we forgetting the fact that even before president trump and the trade war, we were expecting a moderation for structural reasons? lakshman: i think there's certainly structural reasons, which i would fully sign on to.
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cyclically i think both economies are experiencing cyclical slowdowns. in the u.s., there are these one offs keeping it up and making that easing not as dramatic. for china the exposure to the global industrial sector has really hit it, and it is feeling that, along with much of the rest of the world. the idea that the u.s. is somehow just disconnected from all that really doesn't stand up to any scrutiny? when you look at the gdp data, there's a counterpart to that, the gross domestic income data. nobody looks at it because it comes out about a month later than gdp, but it is growing at half the growth rate of gdp. the fed combines them both into one indicator called gdp plus.
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the growth on that is 2% instead of the 4.2% shown by gdp. there is a slowdown. it is not even a forecast anymore. shery: china also announcing these plans to cut personal income taxes, and of course china is one of the most heavily taxed economies. do they have more options to stimulate the economy? have an: they certainly lot of policy levers should they choose to use them. i think we are seeing them start to deal with and grapple with this slowdown in part because it is just not over. the one holdout was oil prices, and those are starting to slip. it is all part of a global industrial slowdown or moderation. there's not a recession here. but the direction, it could be a surprise. i think probably the biggest misread is that somehow the u.s.
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shery: let's get a check of the latest business flash headlines. netflix is going back to the junk-bond market to fund new content. the $2 billion offering will come in dollars and euros. the bonds will push netflix debt load above $10 billion for the first time. goldman sachs is shifting a business line into its wealth management unit to offer new products. an internal memo seen by bloomberg says it is putting the markets retail banking arm under its investment management division. it has ambitions in mortgages, credit cards, and retirement plans. group alternative asset
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-- says he isn't concerned with the possibility of a u.s. recession anytime soon. he told me that the world's largest economy is still doing well despite an aging cycle. take a listen in our exclusive interview. >> the market has flipped from being all good to all bad. prior to october 4, it was ,gnoring some possible problems and now it is obsessing about them. haidi: in january your memo was pretty sanguine about the risks that could result in a market downturn. things like the trade war, geopolitics, sort of more of a moderation in corporate earnings , we will get a picture this week, have you become a little more pessimistic? >> i have been calling for caution for some time now. decisionhe fundamental
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that an investor has to make is whether to be aggressive or defensive. i've had more of an emphasis on defense for a few years. i think the easy money had been made and it is important to know where the market is in its cycle. that doesn't mean it is going down tomorrow. i think the economy is very powerful. it would be difficult to be out of this market. but one should be in in a cautious way. haidi: you don't like to talk about the market cycles having a beginning or end. where are we at roughly in terms of the closeness to a downturn? >> i've been saying for a while we are in the eighth inning. but of course remember, for those in australia who don't know, a baseball game has nine innings normally. we don't know how long this game is going to go. steals -- still feel
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good about saying we are in the eighth inning, it may be about to end. who knows? haidi: the current recovery is one of the longest ever. at the start of this year, you said it is plodding along. it is not so hot that we are going to see the end very soon. has that view changed? you've got more voices talking about a recession. our economy is still doing very well. in a few months it will become the longest recovery in history. there are signs of recession anytime soon. in december, the government passed a tax bill which will be highly stimulative. it has produced a gangbusters second quarter. think there's any reason
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haidi: it is 10:30 a.m. in sydney. saying major losses across the sector with declines in commodities as well as health care. and utilities on the biggest users of this losers. york.losers in new >> we have tech and consumer socks gaining ground the financials and energy stocks where the big losers. a focus on earnings. about 30% of s&p 500 companies fall this week. i am sorry and in new york --
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shery ahn in new york. haidi: let's get the first word news with jessica summers. stepping up its criticism of trump's medal tariffs saying they have made americans feel the mosys pensive in the world. operations said u.s. steel costs are higher than anywhere else. isalso reveals ford continuing to discuss tariffs with the administration. american steel costs $150 more per metric ton than the equivalent in china. governmenty's' shery: italy's populist government is willing to spend each -- more each year. the finest minister told brussels he would widen more than the 2.4% goal. . he has called for talks. days before the presidential
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runoff, shy your balsam there was dominating social media. his name is three times more frequently than that of his rival, fernando. narrow --balsam president xi jinping may speak tuesday in the china -- as the china inaugurates the longest sea breeze in the world. some analysts say it may carry 30,000 vehicles daily. the project is part of a plan to turn the greater bay area into a high tech silicon valley. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i jessica summers. this is bloomberg.
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haidi: let's see what we are watching as trading gets underway. our asia editor is here with me. plenty risk of versions there as well. >> we have a bit of apache session in the u.s. last night. the australian market is the first one to open and that is down a little bit in asia futures. there is skepticism about the riley yang chinese stocks that we have saw -- seen. tensions,th trade concerns about the saudi journalist and you also have on the yields remaining elevated. treasuries are at 3%. that is why both morgan stanley ad goldman sachs are saying
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bounce in the s&p 500 that we normally see in the fourth quarter may not accentuate. has bounced s&p 500 in the fourth quarter given eight of the nine years. that may not happen in this year given increased volatility around the midterm elections coming up. haidi: in terms of managing isectations, bank of america not super excited about how long this chinese stock rally can go forward. andreea: bank of america is not excited about the two day rally. chinese stocks are up more than 10%. it is unlikely to be sustained. they point out high leverage and the chinese markets and an uncertain outlook remains fragile despite the efforts from a to virtually shore up the market. in the library
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that shows that shanghai down moreindex is than 20% among the worst performers. bank of america points out that it's smaller private companies pursuing the market and it is a higher risk because of this collateral requirement that is pressuring the market there. a u.s. coal miner is raising more than $550 million in an ipo. what other prospects -- what are their prospects? andreea: probably not the best day for karen otto to start trading -- coronado to start trading. if you look at some of the other place in australia, a have come down in recent days. that is after a fairly sharp run-up in the share price on the thermal coldg prices.
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on the positive side, this ipo was priced conservatively. at the bottom end of the marketing range. any's may very well push risks to the shares when they start trading in sydney later today. shery: thank you so much. we have breaking news on the bloomberg. is weighing -- iconic is weighing in $11 billion offer. they have received this last friday according to voters from a buyout firm. that is according to sources. is at a small premium. we saw a post market, the share jump about the 4%. this coming after the moment of tariffs imposed by president trump weighed heavily on the
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company and drove up his costs this year. given the offer is at the small premium, analysts think this will add pressure to decide on whether to remain independent or take up this $11 billion acquisition offer. haidi? look athery, taking a the latest story and support from chinese authorities for the broader markets, the pboc will support bond financing if their funding strains. this comes as top chinese thecials seek to restore chinese economy. what is the significance of this move? >> it is certainly the latest a courtin what has been may did the economy.
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top officials are talking of confidence, we have had a string of measures to designed to shore up sentiments. we have a particular move that is a two-pronged approach suggesting they want to ease the way for private sector companies to sell bonds or financing. it is the private sector that is probably suffering the most. felt thethe ones who squeeze. this would suggest policymakers are cognizant of the problems the economy is pacing. while they preached they are remaining -- facing. while they preached they are remaining confidence, they are willing to take the steps required to ensure those parts of the economy that need the cash will get the cash. haidi: what is behind the market rally? we have been talking about for how bank of america thinks it is not really a singable -- sustainable.
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>> it seems to be the broad thrust of it. when you hear what analysts are saying, we had a fairly full on approach from the top policymakers over recent days, including comments from xi jinping which suggest they stand ready to take further action if necessary to sure up confidence and sentiment. we are not talking about wholesale stimulus in the economy yet, but to pronounce measures that are turning heads. the tax -- are broader on what a anticipated and what is expected to boost confidence among the middle-class sectors of china. nonetheless, we still have significant overhang from margins. we have the ongoing fears the trade bar is only getting
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started -- trade war is only getting started. of a china has something reprieve in the tubing day rally, the broader story is how china plays out over the next couple months. shery: we have heard from secretary mnuchin that he is open to have the u.s. change how they label countries as currency manipulators. where are we in terms of the yuna? >> it is interesting. everyone is watching that. is, there are two bank kinds of views. the 3-7, the critical issue will be the pace of decline. orit is seen as disorderly moving at a very rapid rates, it will prompt companies to get their cash out of china. they will go back to the narrative we had a few years ago that the government will have to intervene again to prop up the company -- currency.
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manageable, china can handle that. it is somewhat of a buffer for the export sector. it is based on fundamentals. nonetheless, no matter what your n weion is, when the yua have a backdrop of a trade war -- yuan is increasing against the dollar, we haven' a backdrop of the trade war. shery: president trumpshery: will vote on a new tax cut even though republican lawmakers say they have no such legislation in the works. >> we are giving and middle income tax reduction of about 10%. we're doing it now. this is not the business, this is the middle.
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this is on top of the tax decrease we have already getting -- given. shery: we just heard from the white house saying this would be an additional 10% middle income tax-cut. givener how viable is it they already had a tax bill that was passed by the house in september, but the senate did not want to touch it. >> it still doesn't. that is one of the crosses of the problem. president trump was two weeks tax billting a new that might get voted on after the elections, maybe? we don't really know. there is no text of this out right now. the white house clarified in an email in the last hour and a half to bloomberg saying that this would be may be as part of a tax cut 2.0 package. again, it is hard to say with this looks like. what you and so look for is the election is about two weeks away.
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is a in the economy central message for congressional republicans looking to maintain their house and senate majority. this promise of future cuts my to be something that might help them keep the senate and maybe keep hold of the house. heard president trump to campaign for ted cruz is reelection -- ted cruz's reelection. >> it will really be an interesting campaign stop for the president. especially since he and senator cruz have a long history. they campaigned against each other for senate and they were fierce rivals. you know donald trump likes to talk about nicknames for people. he called ted cruz lying ted. he said ted cruz's might have dad might have had something to do with the jfk assassination. this was a political
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relationship, with rocky as an understatement. now, they are the best of friends. math and politics is a reason why. there are 51 republican senators. the majority is 50. if you lose a republican states like texas, it is a good chance democrats have a very good night. the democratic candidate is raising money at a historic clip. hand over fist, he is practically printing money for his campaign. ted cruz and some republicans, this caught them off guard. he is not the most politically popular guide that he is a republican in a very republican state. donald trump walk into a giant basketball arena with the houston rockets playing in houston and tell this crowd a vote for ted cruz is a vote for me, and vote for ted cruz. all of that harsh stuff and
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campaign rhetoric, that is out the window. here they come, the best just a friends -- bestest of friends. haidi: derek, we see ted cruz coming in houston citing to adjust the crowds. we'll let you go. derek, thank you in washington. this rally is getting underwear houston, texas. it is interesting, a lot of analysts saying this could backfire. it was a tenuous relationship two politicalbine votes. texas is a red state. the president's approval rating is tough there. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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daybreak: asia." shery: president trump is turning up the heat on saudi arabia saying he is not satisfied with the explanation of how tomoko fujii -- tomoko khashoggi -- jamal died. joining us now is the senior institute, jacob. we heard president trump was telling usa today that his death was a plot gone wrong and there could be many possible penalties for the saudis. is this a turning point for the president who has gone as far as calling this a rogue killer issue? >> i think we are getting to the point where the trump administration realizes this is not good ago way. and enough damaging information will come to light that will
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either force them to take action or have their hands forced by a vetoproof majority in congress. probably from the perspective of the president, get ahead of it. shery: president trump is that a campaign rally for ted cruz in houston. coming the midterms are november 6. how much leverage to the saudis have over president trump at this very key political moment? >> they may have a little bit of leverage at the moment, because the trump administration is in a tight spot. is rising, midterms are a few weeks away. voters tend to not like rising gasoline prices. the trump administration's iran sanctions kicking on november 5. it will not take much from the saudis in terms of commenting on their future supply strategy to
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deliver a potentially significant further upward increase in all prices which could put pressure on president trump in the short-term even though this could be very damaging to saudi, u.s. relations in the medium-term. is likely thek it sentiment of congress will overtake the wishes of trump in taking a more aggressive stance on sanctions? jacob: that is certainly what we saw earlier in his presidency on russia. -- congress passed a law against his wishes. we have seen it previously as well wear, not so long ago, congress passed a law that enabled private u.s. said the sentence to sue saudi arabia in a court of law for responsibility for the 9/11 bombing despite heavy saudi lobbying against it. there definitely is the ability to muster significantly
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anti-saudi sentiment in congress. think unless the present gets ahead of it, it is coming to congress. shery: tell us about the jared kushner problem or jared kushner's problem in this will scenario. jacob: one of many for folios that yard -- many portfolios stared kushner house is the process. it is fair to say the key plank , inhis alleged peace plan the hope saudi arabia money but keep a lot of other arab states in support. this is partly built on his very close personal relationship with the saudi crown prince. even if the crown prince has directly implicated himself, jared kushner has a personal problem, but so does the trump and -- trump administration's
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entire middle eastern strategy. shery: we saw tons of stocks sold on saudi arabia. they solve -- sold billion dollars of stocks last week. will losing face on the international stage or losing investor confidence push change in saudi arabia? jacob: i think it is an open question. have materially worsened the outlook for 2030 which is the crown prince's personal push for long-term economic reform in saudi arabia. thatwe have seen is forward investors are pulling out. shouldly negating what have been a key plank in that reform program and the opening up of the saudi economy to
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foreign investments. that is far less likely to happen. could just be that the saudi royal family itself, which put the crown prince ahead of another -- a lot of other contenders for the throne, has a change of heart. right now, it might seem unlikely, but before the crown prince ascended to his current status, he was himself regarded as an unlikely heir to the throne. if u.s. saudi relationships continue for the worsen -- to worsen, i would not rule it out in the medium-term -- medium-term. haidi: a lot of this hinges if erdogan releases to the public the evidence that turkey has. i'm wondering where this leaves -- is a pretty tricky situation
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if you are investor like softbank in terms of the prussian long -- pressure on companies to take a stance. softbank has committed a lot of money and bought in heavily to the entire, long-term strategy of the crown prince. obviously you have a problem. to want far less likely to succeed economically. elliptically, he is probably not ine liberalized engag people might thought he would be. far more and off area to an -- shery: always appreciate your -- line -- haidi: always appreciate your time with us. let's take a look at the stories trending across the universe.
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users are interested in trump's middle-class tax-cut. that is catching republican lawmakers off guard when he announced that. you can readcom, how abstract you even if you uninstall them. twitter is stock on the fastest-growing economy in the world. people there are breeding the most -- breathing the most toxic air on the planet. you can check of those stories on the bloomberg, online, or on the terminal. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪
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asian markets have just opened portrait. -- four trade. -- for trade. shery: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: asia." haidi: asian equities have excessive declines. the dollar strengthens to a two-month high. italy refuses to back down on it spending plans. they may reject the budget. shery: president trump says he is not satisfied with saudi arabia's explanation.
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he as there are many possible penalties. u.s. futures falling pretty flat as banks and homebuilder stocks plunge. china equities still in focus after that two-day rally. let's get more on the rally from our team leader. a key question for investors will be will the rally continue in asia despite the mixed picture out of the yuan -- u.s.? what are they watching? >> u.s. futures are down. australia has opened. unit -- new zealand as well. japan is down as well. right after the close in the u.s. it is looking at a down day for us. financial stocks and homebuilder stocks have been falling so that will weigh on sentiment here in asia. the one thing we will be focusing on his china again today after a 7% rally over the last two days. that will be a big focus for
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people out here. the focus will also be dollar strength making a return as a theme. the dollar look like it was taking -- testing the year high. we are seeing in tokyo shares, pretty significant losses at the open. is there a real lack of conviction in sentiment? >> i think there is just a lot of negative sentiment out there. particular, with the u.s. bank stocks falling, that is definitely having an impact in japan as well. bank of america, china be in a huge focus, they have come out saying that they do not think this rally will last very long. it is sentiment german and it is very short-term. i think that is weighing on the market here is a. -- as well. it is going to have an impact for today.
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haidi: our asian equities team leader. let's get you the first world's jessica summers. u.s. national security adviser john bolton is in moscow to explain why president trump wants to abandon a 30-year-old arms treaty. he met members of the security council who spoke to president putin later tuesday. they are disappointed the u.s. wants to drop in 1987 deal on intermediate range missiles and makingthe have been rockets in violation of the trading. they need to spend more in out to help the poor sinners since -- forest -- quarter citizens -- poorer citizens. he did say his plans do not comply with u.s. relations.
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theresa may has told u.k. lawmakers there is a scenario where it would be preferable to extend the post brexit transition with brussels. remaining under eu regulations for longer would be better than activating the so-called northern ireland back stock to prevent a hard border with the republic. conservative say that would be a betrayal. president xi jinping mistake later tuesday -- may speak later tuesday after they inaugurate the largest sea bridge in the world. some analysts say it may carry some 30,000 vehicles daily. it is part of a sweeping plan to turn the so-called greater bay area in the province into a high-tech area to rival silicon valley. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers.
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this is bloomberg. shery: president trump is turning up the heat on saudi arabia saying he is not satisfied with the kingdom's explanation of what happened to jamal khashoggi. let's bring in our editor johnny scheider -- jodi schneider in hong kong. president trump is saying his death was a plot gone all right. are we sensing -- plot gone awry. difference in a the? -- and thought? >> other heads of state in some congress members have taken the he continues to say he wants to see other investigations. he says there are some very talented people who are continuing to investigate and he wants to see that. but he has really been pushed
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into taking a tough percents. -- a tougher stance. stephen mnuchin was meeting with saudis as part of a six-country toward and he had similar kinds of messages. at the same time, they are cautious messages. they are not saying what actions the u.s. should take as a saudi'snce of the involvement in the death of mr. shelby -- mr. jamal khashoggi. it is two weeks from the midterm elections and president trump is not want that she would much rather be talking about things thinks will help his base turn out to vote for republican candidates. as both a house and senate leadership are at stake in that election -- both the house and senate leadership are at stake in that election. shery: he was rallying in houston. this is a campaign rally for
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senator ted cruz who is running against democrat representative o'rourke. a very red state. president trump saying senator auz is a really good friend, u-turn from his insults back in 2016 when they were presidential candidate rivals. sticking with the saudi story and going over to turkey, now demandinggan transparency of this investigation but we know that turkey has been suppressing journalists for a very long time. what does this mean for saudi-turkey relations? >> the relationship has not been good. has been a flat relationship for some time. this are present in essence something of an opportunity if you will, for turkey and for president erdogan who have come out very strongly against what happened. it was the saudi embassy in his country. he has taken the lead on the
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criticism against the saudis. them someain, giving leadership opportunity here on the criticism and perhaps consequences with what the saudis -- and again, there has been talk that they have recordings that may give us more jamalt into the death of khashoggi and what actually happened there at the embassy. haidi: china is advising the about leaving the 1987 missile treaty with russia, the system over the chances -- does this lower the chances of a meeting between president trump and xi jinping? >> and certainly complicates it. -- it certainly complicates it. no biggerlk plan, picture talk plan on the trade dispute in the countries, was of
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its leaders may have a meeting but now china has come out there is strongly president trump -- very strongly against president trump saying the u.s. might lead that nuclear -- leave that nuclear arms treaty because russia has not been abiding by it. that is a president trump has been saying. china saying there would be many harmful effects if the u.s. was to leave the treaty. they came out strongly against it. riftoks like yet another against the two countries. maybe they will meet and that some and buenos aires but certainly an out of 10 -- a lot of tension there and no talks planned. nothing expected to be resolved certainly until after the midterm elections in two weeks in the u.s. schneider there, coming up on daybreak asia, the longest seabridge gold in sicily connecting hong kong and the chinese mainland. -- the longest sea
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haidi: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." shery: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. beyer has lost a bid to what about the jury decision surrounding the roundup weedkiller that causes cancer. they failed to persuade a california judge to set aside the verdict -- the million-dollar verdict in the case of the ground school -- the school housekeeper. -- groundskeeper. they are defending almost nine dozen lawsuits claiming roundup caused non-hodgkin's lymphoma. aerospace board of
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company iconic is saying to weighing -- be weighing an $11 billion offer. between $23alued and $24 per share. iconic is also provoking interest run a group comprising blackstone, carlisle, and the canada pension plan investment board but it has yet to take an offer. shery: another senior figure has left over. the company says -- has left uber. cameron has designed leaving another they can say ahead of next year's anticipated ipo. the former goldman sachs executive and wall street journal says last month he had been accused of misconduct and had been disciplined. he responded that he made an error of judgment and was ari -- and was sorry. haidi: our next guest has great conviction and equities. -- and equities. -- in equities. joining us is sarah lien.
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do you believe this is just a temporary blip or is this a kind of periodic correction we are seeing as we get into this agent art of the market -- aging part of the market? >> it is pretty standard to see pullbacks this. we expect -- pullbacks like this. we expect more. this type of volatility is pretty normal. we have been in low volatility environments. volatility is coming back. it is making people uncomfortable. the market is moving a lot. we still see very strong conviction and equities, asian equities, emerging equities, but our clients that do not like this volatility a lot of our clients at east spring are looking at minimum volatility strategies where they can say investors in market capture the
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upside, and we have been seeing a lot of interested -- interest in it recently because the market has been going strong and pulling back. when we think -- we think that will continue. haidi: suffer, when it comes to u.s. equities, it seems very rich valuations close to records, this is turning into the longest recovery on record. investor, if you want to be cautious but not left out, how do you calibrate the balance between the two element? -- elements? >> we're looking for areas that are underappreciated. these are not stocks that are necessarily in the headlines moving a lot. we are looking at markets that tend to be more stable so in asia, we look at markets malaysia and thailand and singapore. they tend to be more stable. their currencies are more stable. these are areas where we have been finding really good ideas.
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on the flipside, we have been more underweight. china, a very volatile market, taiwan, korea. you have to be very selective in where you are invested in at this point in time. shery: including potential income tax cuts? >> we are seeing really good stimulus out of china. china is trying to stimulate the economy with everything going on in terms of tightening and reform. as well as the trade war, of course. there is a lot going on in china and a lot to be positive about in china at this point in time, our low volatility strategies are underway because the market has been very volatile this year. it does not mean we will always be underway -- underweight china, the right now that is the right way to be positioned. we are still exposed. we looking at more domestic
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oriented stories, domestic oriented stocks that fluctuate less with regards to trade war and export oriented ideas. we still think the china consumer for instance, is very strong. but we are losing our bits and other areas. shery: we have seen financial conditions at least here in the u.s. remain pretty supportive despite a fed tightening -- the fed tightening. asia, when it comes to emerging churches, this chart showing the financial conditions the terry rooney more for the emerging markets including asia, -- deteriorating more for emerging markets including asia. does this give you a positive comes to which markets you're looking at in terms of liquidity, conditions, when the fed is tightening? >> absolutely. this is not new information. formarket has been looking
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the fed to raise rates for the better part of three years. this is kind of par for the course. we are not having a synchronized rate increase across asia. different markets are responding differently. that is why we are being selective and trying to be invested in countries that are more stable and markets that tend not to be as volatile. very bullish on markets and think from here the upside is very strong. emerging markets have sold of 14% this year. when it sells off indiscriminately like it has, there is great opportunity for stock pickers to find really good companies and businesses that have sold off with the rest of the market. they should have really long-term potentials. shery: how does the dollar plan all of this? >> the dollar has been very strong this year. our view is so that the dollar will remain strong but their companies -- there are companies
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that are used to operating and a strong dollar environment that can withstand a strong dollar environment. there are a lot of domestic oriented stocks within the asian market, e.m. markets, have nothing to do with the u.s. dollar. if you look at different parts of the region, the consumer is still very strong. we have a very positive outlook. all the tileery this year and probably will be volatile going into next year -- volatile this year and probably will be going into next year. we just have to be very careful about what we own but long-term investors should benefit from being invested in equities. that is what a low volatility approach make sense at this point in time. going off what sherry was talking about, this resurgence in dollar strength. we have had the dollar and the asian session pushing the 16 month highs. do you think the pressure when
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it comes to the currency is really something that is going to be preston -- price and when you're in e.m. investor? -- priced in when you are in e.m. investor? >> certainly. businesses more exposed to the dollar than others. in the low volatile strategy, in east sprint, for example, we are tpring for -- eas example, singapore, malaysia, these are more stable currencies that really have not moved that much busier. much busier --ed this year. when you look at other markets like indonesia, india, even australia, the strategy is overweight the markets that have not been stable. when you look across asia, the economies like
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indonesia and thailand, the theippines, china, does narrative that we have been talking about for a long time which is the strong domestic still demographic story play out regardless of whether we are talking about a trade war or the end of the cycle in the u.s.? >> i do. i think it really does. if you look at china, the economy is still growing at 6.5%. wars, andthe trade the current $250 billion in tariffs, that is going to show you less than 1% in china's gdp. if it -- there, that is to percent. -- 2%. if you look at the chinese consumer, there is a lot going on in terms of immunization -- p remiumization, consumers want to gymnasium,inema, the
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the service economy is growing very strongly in china. only 9% of chinese citizens actually have a passport. so there are huge opportunities if you look at statistics like that. we are bullish on the region. we think the consumer demand is still a very strong driver. haidi: appreciate your time. client,ng investment sarah lien. remember you can feature our charts on bloomberg tv. this is bloomberg. ♪
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and say there is no need to support the rate hike. our global economic policy editor kathleen hays is here with the preview. a rate hike is still on the table including our very own economic team. the majority says no hike but the other side says wait a minute, the forces that really started kicking off his downturn, forcing the bank indonesia to rate hikes so much are still in place. the federal reserve our set of knowing -- are signaling more rate hikes. pushing up the current account deficit. all these things that are in place. let's go into the bloomberg library, look at the #btv chart which is a lovely simple one which says why a lot of people are saying you do not have to hike more. what is that?
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because they had five rate hikes since may which took the rate up and look what it has done. taking this a step further, we know at the last meeting the governor from bank indonesia said they are committed to front loaded preemptive policy and to counter all the -- policy to counter all that. it is not clear the rate hikes have been done and the progress on reducing the current account deficit are enough. the has stable recently rupiah has stable recently. i think it is a pretty compelling argument. shery: we have a long list of
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speakers when it comes to the fed but we also have the ecb meeting. what are investors watching most closely? >> forfeits because later, people do not expect big surprises, what has been hitting bond markets around the world suddenly euro, overwhelming other markets as well, is italy. the budget battle. they want to cut taxes and increase spending or their poorest citizens. respect was -- respend was difficult but necessary. he is with the prime minister himself earlier today promised, to hit that budget target. target is our upper limit. we can still reassess during the budget implementation, they containment, so we do not necessarily need to reach that 2.4%. for sure we we -- we will that exceeded. -- we will not exceeded.
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haidi: it's 8:30 in the morning in hong kong. the recovery rally. bolo be sustained for another day -- will it be sustained for another day? shery: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak: asia." let's get the first world is with jessica summers. >> fort is stepping up their criticism of president trump's terrace saying they have made -- tariffs seeing have made americans see them as the most expensive it in the world. he also revealed ford is continuing to discuss terrorist with the administration. still costs more per
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metric ton. president trump is turning up the heat on saudi arabia saying --y he is not satisfied -- saying he is not satisfied with the this -- with the answer. deathd jamal khashoggi's is a plot that went wrong and that there are many potential so -- potential consequences. stephen mnuchin tweeted a photo of them saying he stresses the importance of the two countrie'' strategic partnership. mnuchin proceeded with the meeting even the political figures distance himself from the saudi regime amid outrage over jamal khashoggi's murder. aidident trump wants to end to honduras, but a and el salvador as thousands of migrants walk north toward the
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united states. he tried to make undocumented immigration an issue in the midterms and blames the caravan on the democrats. cut aesident struggle to because much of the money is for anticorruption and good governance programs which have brought support in congress. and just days before the brazilian presidential runoff, bolsonaro is dominating social media. is him as being mentioned three times more frequently on a series of platforms and that his monotheism -- on a series of platforms versus his rival haddad. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. and jessica summers. this is bloomberg. -- i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. haidi: let's schedule -- let's
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get you an update on asian markets. sentiment is not looking very strong at the moment. >> not good at all. 0.5%futures are down about and most of the markets that are open are down by at least 1%. clearly investors are not buying into china's stock market rally over the last few days. i think there is a lot for u.s. futures. what you are seeing is a follow-through from the down day in the u.s. market and also over here, it is that sentiment and whether or not china is going to be able to follow through and continue with their rally that they have seen for the last two days. shery: right now the markets that are open do not look too good. we will see what happens with china in the meantime, what are the other stocks you're watching across asia?
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>> for the markets are open, south korea, has slumped quite a bit this morning. sale is0 million share falling today. in japan, chemical is down after reporting also great earnings. and in australia, the good news is health scope is up than most on record after a second offer from bgh. quite a mixed day for us. shery: thank you so much. greater bay area received a huge infrastructure boost on tuesday. the world's longest sea bridge is set to connect hong kong to the mainland in china. it shoots for xi jinping's vision for a high-tech megalopolis.
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what does this bridge mean for hong kong and for china? bridge is going to connect hong kong much closer to china and literal sense, the 3.5 to july used to be hours and now it will be 30 minutes. china, it is very significant. it is xi jinping's vision of the greater bay area to california's bay area. this is thetime, 40th anniversary of china's reform and opening up. if you think of the bigger picture, this is definitely an injinping's mine to bring -- xi jinping's mind to bring the economy to a next level. haidi: is also a political implication and how they view ma
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cao and hong kong in relation to beijing? >> we are expecting xi jinping at the opening ceremony today at about 9 a.m., in about 20 minutes time. hongitely this is bringing kong and china closer but this is really -- this really has a lot of economic implications for the area. if you think about the trade war now, this area also used to be the world factory -- the world's factory. -- they're going into financial and technological development. haidi: the skill of the project and the money that has been spent on it, -- the scale of the project and the money that has been spent on it. >> it is the longest world sea bridge as you mentioned, this is also going to have one in a thousand cars moving on the
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bridge on a daily basis, -- 29,000 cars moving on the bridge on a daily braces -- daily basis. it is breaking a lot of records. the sevene out of world's longest bridges are actually in china. thank you so much. our guests talking about this massive structure undertaking. frayingtarting to see at the seams when it comes to sentiment. here in australia we are seeing weakness across energy after it fell 1% -- over 1% overnight. we do have the bank of indonesia, we will talk more about the stability particularly as we have this renewed dollar
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haidi: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." central banksia's may be ready to hit the pause button as five interest rate hikes and measures to curb the current account deficit start to pay off. joining us from singapore is majorgarg, director and a -- emerging asia fx and rates strategist, the survey points to the rate in kept steady at 5.75%. first of all, what are your expectations? are for bankations indonesia to remain on hold and
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that is simply because if you have seen the past one month, it is quite clear that the narrative within the region seems to be shifting more toward supporting growth. if you look at what rba actually did and what bank of korea recently did in terms of holding rates, it is quite clear to me that bank of indonesia will also be holding rates today. of course, the risk is that they actually just surprised the market and they hike again. the last time they actually did that was in august. but i think the focus would really be towards growth. it will probably stay on hold. shery: how much has a trade war been incorporated into this calculation? and good things changes the trade war evades -- abates? is thatow, our baseline a lot of pessimism is already being priced in into emerging asia and particularly in countries like indonesia. in that sense, we really need to
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in some big moves either dollar or dollar rates. the trade tensions that will probably result. as long as that does not happen, a lot of pessimism is already being president. and that is why we expect bank indonesia -- think of indonesia to remain on hold today. haidi: i want to get your gauge on where the dollar goes next. rupee, in thee face of what the greenback does next. i want to bring up this chart from our library. the overnight move was really due to some of these idiosyncratic political and economic headlines coming through from italy, and the u.k. with brexit as well. is it fair to assume that if nothing changes, if the trade war situation gets worse, that risk version gets worse? we are seeing a return to
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another like an u.s. dollar strength. -- in u.s. dollar strength. >> for now we are seeing the other seems to be popping here a bit especially against emerging markets but i do take your point that his trade tensions to escalate again, simply because we are now starting to see growth divergence between u.s. and emerging asia the coming of it more stark, it is quite possible to see rallying against emerging asia. for now, we think a lot of pessimism is already priced in. for the short-term, we are a bit more positive on emerging asia. more recently, that is when we went ahead and recommended long indonesia bonds as one of the non-consensus trees within the region. -- trades within the region. haidi: with the second anchor em currencies? >> definitely the yuan has a big
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impact on the region. one critical thing that has been anchoring the rest of emerging asia i have to say is the basket. if you look at sea and why against the seat -- against the basket it continues to hold in the 92 critical level. as long as it holds above the 92 level that will anchor the dollar-asia in general. the key level is 92. if we break 92, we can of course the more depreciation in asia against dollars. bigi:-shery: we know investors cannot not usually commit fresh -- one going into the fourth quarter not to mention we have the dollar funding issue. assessment in the short-term we could see more pressure for em currencies? thinkthe contrary i do talking to a lot of investors, the start of the them fund tracking that we do as well -- em fund tracking that we do as well, levels have spiked up what a bit.
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it will actually find certain real money funds that will actually have hiked, 10%. tensions do not escalate given that a lot of pessimism is already priced in, we can actually see a near term rebound in risky assets in salvation particularly. shery: does that include the rupiah? because of the imf and the inflow, a foreign currency -- of form currency, -- of foreign currency, how vulnerable is the rupiah going forward? >> it includes the rupiah as well. the one problem indonesia has consistently been facing is the deficit. even though we have actually seen bank and -- like of indonesia hike rates, the fact of the matter is trade balance is continue on the downside. the last month was an exception. but we are still tracking the third quarter current account
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deficit at about 3% if not more. that will probably still continue to pressure the rupiah but simply because positioning again,uced so much, and a lot of pessimism is already priced in. oil,ll take a big rally in or fresh weakness and see ny against dollar that will probably push the rupiah higher. if we do not see their of these it will probably remain sideways or come off. haidi: the volatility and oil prices is a bit of a problem. and -- a lot of analysts say it is hard to see away from $80 a barrel. we had the end of a six-month long losing streak and a rally and the rupee, some analysts
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getting bearish saying the correlation with oil prices is going to make things very difficult for the current account situation as well as a political one -- the political one. >> we are bearish on the rupee over here. fortunately for the rupee, oil prices have come a pretty sharply in the last 1.5 weeks and that is what we have seen a short-term rally on the rupee. but i think it will continue to get pressured simply because it is oil -- not just oil causing in thein in ruby, -- rupee. that india is the crisis seems to be taking a toll. if you look at offshore investors, they are pretty heavily positions and indian equity markets and as we approach the state elections followed by the general elections in 2019, equity markets will continue to get pressured and that will result in more equity outflows and debt outflows.
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is bare inthe rupee the short-term. shery: thank you so much rohit bank of america merrill lynch, emerging asia fx and rates strategist. the race between senator ted cruz against democrat o'rourke, this is a big turn of events given that the president has called senator cruz in the past lying ted while they were rivals and the 2016 campaign. president trump saying ted cruz is a really good friend of his, also calling his rival o'rourke a radical. pretending to be a moderate. he also claimed that the democrat's blue wave talk seems to be fading and the gop will do great when it comes to the senate. the elections in about two
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weeks, right now the consensus seems to be there will be a blue wave where the democrats take over the house and the republicans keep the senate. you're watching president trump holding a rally for senator check for his in the final days of this race of cruise against representative o'rourke in texas. if you want to watch this rally, of course, though to live go on the bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we kneel in prayer.
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shery: a beautiful day here in tokyo. you can see the rainbow right there in the skyline. we are seeing the nikkei held on 1.3%. we had a stronger japanese yen weighing on socks. not to mention we had a weaker section here on wall street with stock markets mixed. a pretty down day or markets in the asia region. i have to say, that rainbow is looking gorgeous. this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." haidi: i don't think there's a pot of gold at the end of that rainbow. [laughing] it looks magical. let's get you a quick check of the news, latest business flash headlines. goldman sachs is shifting ahead when into its management unit to offer new products to specific
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clients. internal memos say they're putting the banking arm under the investment management division. they're offering personal loans and deposit accounts but have ambitions for mortgages, credit cards, and retirement plans. shery: simon is the latest business figure two fallout of saudi arabia's conference. he was scheduled to speak at the future investment initiative but has now withdrawn. arms technology is at the heart of most chips. a close part of the -- partner. . -- bloomberg is a longer immediate partner of even. the $2 billion offering will come in dollars and euros and will arrive just we got the company reported a bigger jump in subscribers than wall street analysts had expected and netflix.
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-- and netflix. -- in netflix. our chief north asia correspondent joins us for more on this story. how is the biggest mobilephone company doing? >> they are doing ok. horizon.ming on the they have added around 45 million new 4g subscribers in the first nine months of the year. also, the china tower i feel helped boost the bottom line up about 3.1% in the first nine months to september. china mobile gets kind of lost in the shuffle. it has been relegated to a utility rather than the new economy stocks like tencent and alibaba. china mobile is the backbone of the telecom, the world's largest
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telecom market. china tower has not done grace is there a view proceeds were locked in and china mobile stocks are doing ok since the low on july 18. up 14% or china mobile even though it is down 2.2% year to date. in line, pretty much with the weakness in hong kong. net income at 95 billion yuan that is 13.7 billion u.s. dollars, it added 45 .8 million new 4g customers as well as 34.1 million broadband wireline and the home of customers. they are doing ok there. the specter on the horizon is 5g. haidi: is that an add or a drag at this point? they are carriers around the world and in china, the largest
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mobilephone market are spending billions of dollars in equipment. the chinese government is even considering reviewing plans to consolidate and merge the next to competitors, china unicom and china telecom to better compete in the space. it is going to cause billions of dollars for new quitman over the next few years. commercial rollout in china is expected by 2020, china already has trials going on in already hurting different cities. -- in 13 different cities. -- bigd be a big a -- but a big drop drag as well. we see rainbows and the chinese markets here today but we are also watching whether this trade war impacts as well. apparel'snd american
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correspondent joins us. they have not included much information that he is saying this is the next shoe to drop, this round of tariffs on chinese goods will have devastating effects for retail and customers -- and consumers. it will drive prices higher and they will continue to stay up. this is really now the time to start retaking your supply change, reducing your alliance with china, have already seen indications of the -- of that, and the key question is whether they will stomach the higher costs. haidi: looking forward to that. let's take a look at how the markets are setting up right now for the china open. japan's nikkei 225 seeing declines. , of the worse there
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plants particularly in the energy sector following that selloff in oil and energy stocks in the u.s. overnight. if like this afterglow from the china rally is really wearing off pretty quickly. shery: the sick a look at asian futures because we are seeing the downside. -- let's take a look at asian futures because we are seeing the downside. look at the kuala lumpur futures as well, they're all down. what is crucial is what will happen in the opening china. we saw stocks jumping the most since march of 2016. will that carry over? of course, "bloomberg daybreak: asia," it is on for now but the fight -- the china open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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