tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg October 23, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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haidi: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." shery: i met bloomberg world headquarters in new york. sophie: we are counting down to asia's major market opens. ♪ haidi: these are the top stories we are covering in the next hour. u.s. stocks fall for a fifth day as a late rally stopped short of pushing into positive territory. as a among the winners long-term short seller admits it
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was wrong and test the company is starting to dominate. saudi arabia faces widening outrage over the death of jamal khashoggi. washington says it has identified some of the suspects. shery: a quick reminder of how markets closed the tuesday session on wall street. all major indexes in the red. the s&p 500 falling below the $2700 for the first time since july. and defensive sectors radley -- rallying the real estate to consumer staples. energy stocks were down, crude and wti falling more than 4% on the tuesday session, now down .4%. the nasdaq is near correction territory, around 8% below the august high. what was interesting about today's session is that it started really know and then stocks were trying to rally throughout the session and pushing higher. what will happen to that momentum going into asia, that
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will be a key question. sophie: whether we see the momentum play out remains to be seen as we look for a mixed start for asia with the benchmark flirting with a bear market. on tuesday we did see a decline in japan, a wipeout of market value of a half true in dollars of japanese shares year to date and it has become volatile for chinese shares, prompting policymakers in beijing to val --ck rollout of state stabilization measures. earnings will be key in the weeks to come. we've had disappointing guidance from big names like caterpillar to texas instruments. machinery makers and ship makers are among the names as well. when it comes to earning's this week we have about 200 japanese companies due to report. today we do have among notable , many names.rt
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let's get a closer look at u.s. markets, stocks clawing session, back in the not quite making it into positive territory. chip stocks are taking their moment in the spotlight. su keenan has the breakdown for us. cap is a company considered an economic out whether, adding to the malaise over the future economic growth. saw was the s&p break below 2700. it did trigger a rally, the question was, would it go far enough? the answer was no. stocks fell for his fifth session. check out the board, you had gold moving higher in the regular session, and the russell
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2000 also in the red. take a look at some of the big earnings stories. caterpillar and 3m, a big cloud over the market. question, is this the peak of industrial earnings for the first time since 2016, cat did not raise guidance even though they had an 18% sales range. they cited the tariffs and increase costs as part of the problem. 3m did something similar, harley davidson hitting a six year low with sales of 13%. look at the bright spot, tesla moved its earnings up to the the 24th. many believe he don't move earnings up if they are bad. so a lot of anticipation there. positive earnings from mcdonald's, australia fueling growth, verizon with a positive
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result, whirlpool reports again on wednesday, a lot of anticipation even though the stock is down. 500, the 200 day below again and it continues to be a key question, can the market get back to above support? shery: and we also had a disappointing outlook from texas biting into the chip rivals as well. each of momentum has been a big question. look at after-hours and see how tech investments are doing, not so well on results that it missed across-the-board and its outlook also disappointing. any investors, if you look at the year today chart of texas instruments, use the company as a financial outlook, sort of a barometer of the demand and that larger customers, they have the widest product range in the
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semiconductor industry. lackluster production means that a lot of the demand has been weak and that is impacting some of the rivals. look at the stoxx index so far, many are saying this thing has another leg lower to move. texas instruments could have dealt to that low. haidi: and we saw futures plunging in saudi arabia, producing -- found to produce as much oil as they can. look at the price chart and you can see the pressure on oil. it was down as much as 5%, a sharp drop. now we have the inventory data, look at the five-day chart, it's ,xpected to be a big buildup the biggest since february 2017 if advance forecasts are correct. that could further drive oil
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lower. it's now at a record, this is important for the, automotive industry, adding to the cost situation. shery: let's dive deeper into what happened with caterpillar and 3m. so the big industrials pointing the thing or two trade tensions. we're seeing the fear we've been talking about with tariffs on steel and aluminum warthe escalating trade turning into reality for caterpillar and 3m. for caterpillar, the tariff related cost 2018 come in at the could be a silver lining, but not much. cap also says it's going to raise its prices, and that is questioning whether it will impact its bottom line. it might raise prices as much as .% in 2019 hop into the bloomberg terminal because i want to show you what's happening with the share price on a historical basis.
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felln see the last time it 2009.eart was back in this was right after the financial crisis. investors are worried that the best sales and profits are behind them. as for 3m, something similar but it's related to the u.s.-china trade war. costs could rise to $100 million in the face of china's slowing growth. we know that to be 6.5%. that is the slowest since the financial crisis there is some banks are saying it could hit 6%. haidi: is not just the industrials that are worried, a lot of other companies were hearing from is that they have to have a plan b b if the trade war is here to say -- or to stay. what are they saying? ramy: the plan b is to get away from china with its supply chain. hvacnext, which is an
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system supplier, he relation as well as air-conditioning, it's ceo says they are actively taking action. i'm not sure if the chinese tariffs will be short term. move tolooking to southeast asia and other low-cost countries. says they have levers to pull in order to mitigate the impact there. supplyrear ranging their chain, and skechers, which gets 50% of its revenue outside north america, it's coo says they have the capacity to move outside china and it's fair to say they are flexible think they will generally be ok. but the name of the game is if things get worse, plan b is to leave china. haidi: thank you so much for that. let's get the first word news with jessica summers.
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that no plany says b after the european union demanded unprecedented changes to bring its budget into line with the block spending rose. the prime minister told bloomberg's government has no intention of leaving the euro and will not gamble with the nation's future. he also said while some aspects of the budget could be changed, the fundamental spending plan will remain. that wet to assure you and wery comfortable think the euro will be our .urrency currency of our children. >> reports from london say theresa may has lost control of her cabinet. senior figures are up late fighting against her brexit plan.
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sources tell bloomberg seven top minister spoke out against her proposal to keep the u.k. inside the e.u. customs union indefinitely. were toshi reacted angrily. other ministers weighed in saying the u.k. will crash unless there is a compromise. >> u.s. national security adviser john bolton said willdent trump and putin talk in paris next month and says there will be a normal, bilateral meeting. the talks come at a time of rising tensions between the u.s. and russia. bolton repeated the presidents aedged to abandon a night -- nuclear treaty, citing violations by moscow. reports from taipei say the driver of a train that crashed on the weekend and killed 18 people had disabled the speed control system earlier in the day. the bbc says he told the court he turned it off after it slowed the train down. the train came off the line at 140 kilometers per hour, almost twice the speed limit of the
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curve in the track. it was time once worst rail crash in 17 years. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. the trump administration says it has identified some of the suspects in the jamal khashoggi murder and the u.s. them responsible for what was described as a horrific act. >> we've identified at least some of the individuals least some of the individuals responsible including those in the royal court come the foreign ministry and other saudi men -- issues that we suspect to be involved in his death. we are taking appropriate actions which include revoking visas and other measures. we are also working with the treasury department to review the applicability of global sanctions to those individuals.
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shery: let's head over to washington. how soon could we see these including the sanctions secretary pompeo mentioned? the sanctions are within the purview of this administration to grant. they can do it immediately. but president said something critical here today. he said he was going to try to defer to the u.s. congress for most of the saudi reaction. that means that something is not going to come bigger by a law then in about a month from now. that's when congress returns, the week of november 12, because they are out of town. they are away doing campaign stuff. so the administration has a small toolbox. they have opened it up a little bit here at the start, but there is far more to calm. we are still in great
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uncertainty over what it's all going to look like. haidi: we heard from president erdogan of turkey who did not mince words when he addressed the killing with the highly anticipated statement. what did we hear? >> president erdogan was notable in how forcefully he spoke out on the issue of the killing of jamal khashoggi. president erdogan has taken a .ery hard line he stands in stark contrast to the line that president trump has taken, which has been a lot more understanding, maybe the word, certainly a lot softer and more nuanced in terms of the saudi's being an american ally and that the arms deal that's in place he doesn't want to risk. erdogan came out firing earlier today and there's a little bit of posturing going on as erdogan positions himself in relation to the saudi's on this incident. there may be a larger play here.
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shery: president trump is expected to meet president xi next month. what can we expect? >> everything is on the table, isn't it? bykets are reacting moment moment, day by day, to the escalating trade sanctions, tara wars, all the other things going and the worsening of economic relations between the world powers. earlier today,ld don't expect some huge breakthrough. the markets will look to any sort of indication that comes out of here as a possible warming or in. markets are looking for tone. rb in here for the short-term or the long-term? that will be the sentiment, that's one of the things we are clearly closely watching for as these two leaders meet. haidi: we appreciate your time,
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haidi: we are counting down to the open of trade here in sydney. we had a down day with many asian markets teetering on the edge of falling into bear markets in yesterday's session. open about to the .2% lower. the oil price continues to see volatility. i'm haidi stroud-watts here in sydney. shery: i'm shery ahn in new york. you're watching "bloomberg
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daybreak: australia." the late tuesday rally faltered, but are getting close to a? bottom? our next guest is looking for an end of your rally strong earnings becoming a catalyst. from naples, florida. always great to have you with us. low.w stocks start really they tried to push higher. why did we not break into the green? >> we have come up on a tremendous wall of worry for u.s. stocks and really stocks around the world. continuing with the bear market in china, a bear market in italy, problems more widespread in europe and many foreign markets. in the u.s., that had been the stock market performing quite well this year and more recently, the been confronted by that wall of worry. starting 4 factors,
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with interest rates. interest rate started to rise rapidly, we think that was the start of the correction here in the u.s.. we have tariffs that have been an ongoing concern for investors. with all that today in the caterpillar earnings results, which is problematic for the markets, and we have the ongoing concern about earnings. we think earnings will continue to be strong, but concern among decelerating earnings growth. there's a constant discussion about we are past peak earnings. but if we have double-digit earnings growth going forward into 2019, the market can continue to advance on that. we think the major factor right now is midterm elections and the volatility we are seeing in the u.s. market will continue for the next couple of weeks. there are's historical precedents on what happens around the midterm election.
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we have uncertainty going into midterm elections. we expect a rally helped by strong earnings as we work our way through the earnings system and a strong rally through your in. shery: how problematic is earnings beating estimates, when guidance becomes weaker? will this just in -- exacerbate the volatility we have already seen? >> i think so. when we have extenuating circumstances, the question becomes what valuation candy market trade at with interest rates higher? is believed that the market can support a higher multiple with rates lower. now rates are coming up, so that comes into question. we have the issue of tariffs and other issues. if we think, earnings will grow by double digits in 2019, which is still
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our forecast, that's not the 25% earnings growth we had in the first or second quarter or the 20% we expect for the third quarter, but it still very robust earnings. we can have price appreciation from here in the broader stock market in the u.s. in the remainder of the fourth quarter and as we move into 2019. haidi: it feels like the easy money is being made in the u.s.. is it time to start rotating and looking at picking up some of the cheap valuations you see across the rest of the world? david: we so much want to move back into emerging markets, but we are still concerned about china. andre concerned about asia emerging-market debt we've been looking at, we continue to look at emerging-market stocks, but we are still concerned -- if i
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were looking for an investment i wouldnext 10 years, take emerging markets, i would take asia over the u.s. right now. know there are smaller, lower returns ahead of us. here in the near term, with rates on the rise, what it means to countries with current account deficits, we still have come -- some concern. we are not ready to come back into emerging markets yet. we are staying with the uss overweight in our portfolio for now. haidi: are you staying in cash at all or are you staying fully invested? we are about 7% in on the s&p 500. i think we could go a little bit further because we are still two weeks away from that uncertainty with the midterm elections being taken care of. some people look to say, what do
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you do now? you don't want to address the correction when you are part way through, you want to do it before hand. over the summer we increased our allocation of short-term bonds. in this environment where we get to percent, we feel good about that. we increased our positions in up well inch is held this time frame. we will come back into some of the more aggressive growth plays through the end of the year. shery: i want to get your take we saw wti plunging more than 4% and it is still going lower. in the meantime, oil stocks have higherbled capitalize on oil prices. what does this mean for the industry? david: it's interesting, we've seen a lot of the integrated oil
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companies hedge of the price of oil. as oil prices came up, we can see that reflected in the price of energy shares. now we've seen oil come back down. talked about this a few weeks oil, we don'tsee sit moving above the mid-70's. in the mid 60's to mid 70's range and maybe a bit lower, inasmuch as that's reflected in the energy shares, we don't see a lot of momentum there. shery: david, thank you so much. come onore to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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"all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. haidi: it's 9:30 a.m. in sydney where markets open in just 30 minutes time. futures look pretty lackluster come asian markets on the edge of bear market territory. yesterday we saw about 3% losses for china and japan stocks as well. definitely missing a positive sentiment here. one of the points you made earlier, we are looking to bump wouldnings, what outperform to make a dent? years ofve outperforming and beating
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estimates, investors not surprised at the moment. what's interesting going into the asian session is that it one point we lost so much in the u.s. markets, but were trying to climb back up and the dow at one point, only a loss of nine points or so, so there could be some momentum for asia. it 6:30 p.m. in york. you're watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." quick saudi arabia open an investment forum with smiles and applause despite the outrage over the killing of journalists jamal khashoggi in turkey. crown prince muhamed pose photo says the kingdom tries to restrict the fallout. turkish erdogan has rejected the shifting saudi narrative saying the murder was premeditated with links to the highest level. >> a cover up was one of the worst in history of coverups. deal, it should never have been thought of. somebody really messed up.
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everhad the worst cover up . thought of that idea i think is in big trouble, and they should be in big trouble. jessica: president trump has conceded there is no evidence for his claim that arab terrorists are among the thousands of migrants walking through latin america to towards the u.s. border. he tweeted that the caravan of people included unknown middle easterners. question repeatedly in the oval office, he agreed there's no proof, but yet he still insists that terrorists could be there. more u.s. companies say they are ready to relocate supply chains the cost of importing chinese products becomes prohibitive in president trump's trade war. imposes a 10% tariff on $200 billion of chinese exports and is threatening to raise the duty to 25% in january. there's also the possibility
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that all chinese goods may be hit. is to make its first electric cars in singapore. the british manufacturer plans to build a factory in 2020 and rollout its first model the following year. it's part of a $2.6 billion effort to expand into automobiles. dyson already has a motor plant in singapore and the city state has a free-trade agreement with china. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. summers.ca this is bloomberg. in asiahe only market and new zealand is already in the red when it comes to futures, lacking clear direction. sophie is in hong kong with the latest. sophie: after the u.s. rally faltered overnight, the asx city
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under pressure, heading for a fourth day of declines. futures lower in japan although kospi futures are ticking higher and futures for sydney looking unchanged for now. earnings in focus australia. and guidance for australian , at the lowerk end of the stated range for that particular segment of its business. when it comes to the overall outlook, we did get guidance from caterpillar, texas instruments and 3m and that will weigh on sentiment today. i want to highlight was been going on of late, a wiped out of market value your today, over half trillion dollars loss in value for japanese shares in
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2018. find ait's hard to bottom for either japanese are asian stocks and the bears do look to be in control as we see the ratio on the tokyo stock exchange climbing to a record high. but a silver lining could be , it could mean any positive surprises on the earnings front could trigger a short squeeze. haidi: let's get more on what we should be watching is trading it's underway here in asia. trend as we see the selloff, were seen a withdrawal of institutional funds. is this a worrying phenomenon? >> to look at these groups is often a useful exercise.
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at times when turmoil is extended and continues longer than people at first thought, it's interesting to see a big divergence now between those institutional hedge fund top clients and the retail clients. this is only one set of data, this is bank of america client data we have seen. the chart shows it pretty well, a clear of lifting in the way retail investors are continuing to double up although stocks in u.s. markets. institutional of equity investors continue to sell down. it goes back to the age-old adage of whether the dip is worth buying. it has been during this 9.5 your bull market. every selloff we have seen has been followed by a decent rally that at the time has set new highs. what is difficult about this instance is how people are
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realigning with doctors the prospect of higher interest rates, that you also have what is happening in the trade worries and like we heard from caterpillar, a bellwether for the industry in the world economy, is that if it feeds itough and it impacts of ability more than people were expecting, then clearly there will be further downsides for equities. the divergences between the smart money and the dumb money right now. at this pace we could see october become the worst month for global stocks in more than three years. is there any sign we could get a sustainable rebound? been a painful's october for many equity investors in lots of parts of the world. there are clear differences between what's happening on our side of the world and where you are sitting in new york, and clearly where we are and in places like hong kong and china
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that are already in the bear markets. you are starting to see some evidence that there is bargain-hunting to be had in some of these places, but what is very clear now is that you don't have central banks as we have in many episodes over the last few years, who come to the rescue. we are nowhere close to those kind of levels in the declines we've seen in u.s. equities. they would have to fall significantly more for the fed to change the course of tightening policy. clearly there are things being done around the edges in china. as we saw yesterday, rallies give way very quickly when the rally is only premised on some kind of verbal intervention and mild tweaks around the edges, nothing fundamentally happy change in what is a tricky outlook for the chinese economy and for chinese asset. those kind of things make it look like it will be a very
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tough time as we go into the end of the year. don't forget, check out our library with some of the charts that we saw there. officialleading fed says continuing gradual rate hikes are needed to keep the u.s. economy from overheating and creating imbalances that could lead to recession. kathleen hays is here with the roundup. it was a bit more on the dovish side. can change their feathers a little bit. he has been a centrist and more dovish and this does sound a bit more hawkish. he has even raised his gdp forecast. here is what he said. unless the data talk me out of it, i view eight continued gradual movable is appropriate
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until we get to a neutral policy rate that doesn't stimulate the economy or slow it down. say, the fed still has a few rate hikes to go before it gets to the neutral rate, and then he warned on overheating. we have to guard against letting the economy slipped too far into ods thatgh pressure peri impose heavy cost on many people across the economy. you see overheating, let's jump into the bloomberg library and see where the overheating is showing up. it's true that the unemployment rate has fallen to 3.7%. labor markets look tight by that measure. however, a key measure of .nflation is just over 2% do you see a big acceleration here? i think other fed officials agree with him.
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he sees wages rising but there is no runaway inflation. he would be concerned about an inverted yield curve. maybe we will put a little more weight on bostic today. we were in the other camp saying -- what is the argument that they should have double down even more? kathleen: bloomberg economics is saying bank of indonesia this a rupee to get out of the up. you will see five rate hikes since may. stabilized,ee has but you still have a trade were going and concern about the current count rising and not falling. meanwhile they dropped important forward guidance on policy
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thatg -- no longer saying policy is frontloaded or preemptive, another strong signal. bloomberg economics as they will have to raise rates by another 50 basis points by the end of this year. i want to echo what adam haigh said about china. they're adding liquidity to the credit markets. we had a big story about being u.s. companies looking to move their supply chains out of country -- out of china to other countries. is watching the pboc to see if they get more aggressive but italy's battle with the e.u. over the budget, the prime minister is now involved and that's one of the biggest things that has cap that bond market in rally mode. that's something we have to keep our eye on also. haidi: kathleen hays there. we will continue watching the italian situation with the prime
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minister there making those comments in an exclusive interview in rome. he spoke to us just before the european commission rejected his governments rule breaking budget. >> there is in any b plan. the deficit at 2.4 compared to gdp. we will expect ift we are ready to reduce necessary but there is in any plan b. , betting onamblers our kids future. we will discuss the data with the commissioners.
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willing to sit around the table and talk with them and to , of course they will change multiple measures. i have evidence that the spread is due to be -- i want to assure you that we feel very and we think the , thewill be our currency currency of my kid who is 11 years old and the currency of my grandchildren. shery: coming up, we continue to track the widening outrage over the khashoggi mercker.
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shery: welcome back. i'm shery ahn in new york. stroud-watts in sydney. you're watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." turkey is edging closer to laying the blame for, the show his death on crown prince mohammed. president erdogan address the issue in a speech resigned to coincide with the opening of an investment conference in riyadh. he objected -- rejected the saudi narrative today. >> we have in our hands strong indications that this murder was not the result of a sudden incident, it was the product of a planned operation. joining us is a senior
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fellow at the council for foreign relations, stephen cook. great to have you with us. do you feel the pressure is tightening on the white house to take a more definitive stance? what do you think happens from here? >> the white house decided today already to sanction some of those who are deemed responsible for khashoggi's murder. i think in the coming days as long as the turks continue to put this pressure on the saudi's and the united states, the trump administration may be forced to take stronger action. i think it is the reason why the a,a director was in ankar trying to impress upon the turks that they need to bring the situation to an end, that the pressure on the saudi and u.s. government is in no one's interest at this point. hasi: the results of this brought u.s.-saudi relations to
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the core of washington's middle east strategy. do you think preparedness or coherency to the situation at this point? the trump administration wants to do two things, destroy the islamic state and contain or rollback iranian influence throughout the region. saudi arabia is the last big arab state essentially standing after the heir of uprising seven years ago. as a result, it's the focal point of american strategy in the region. the killing of jamal khashoggi threatens to undermine this by weakening saudi arabia and weakening the crown prince and making it more difficult for the united states to work with the saudi's toward this end. so what does that mean, could this change if there is more pressure? steven: i think it's highly
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unlikely the king will remove him at this point. it would be admitting his own week is and cause further instability within the royal family -- it would be admitting his own weakness. are likely to see the king publicly support his favorite sign and perhaps trim the sales until thed bin salman situation dies down 6, 9, 12 months from now. ofn you'll see the return salman is the main power in saudi arabia. how crucial is it that the u.s. and the international community doesn't give a pass or look the other way when it comes to this issue? steven: i think it is important in setting international norms that the murder -- i don't think he was much of a dissident, but the murder of a critic in your
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country's consulate or embassy is way beyond the pale. succeeds his father, he could be the king for the next 50 years. i think that's one reason the united states is trying to broker an agreement between the turks and the saudi's so we major allies of the united states involved in a conflict between each other for many decades to come. haidi: is quite interesting that so many businesses have been forced to take a position going into the future investment conference in riyadh this week terry do have argued that the vision 2030 strategy was always going to be deeply destabilizing. example of the business community finally having to pay attention to that aspect? steven: i think the business community is concerned after this grisly murder of a saudi , i think that vision 2030
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doeslevel of abstraction try to alter the way in which business and politics have long been done in saudi arabia. upset vested to interests, and they will look for ways to try to undermine vision 2030. that's what makes this killing ,o don, to become -- so dumb because it allows salman's critics to argue that he is reckless and heedless and they should rollback many of the things he would like to do in saudi arabia. shery: great to have you with us, steven. get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your a going. also available on mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app.
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shery: welcome back. i'm shery ahn in new york. haidi: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." that's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. tesla fell after a vocal short seller made a surprising u-turn and said he is now going long. he made the decision after reviewing recent information showing tesla dominating the category which it sells. saying shares would be lowered end of the00 by the year. >> i think being short going into this quarter, known that he just beat earnings a week earlier, on top of ford's earnings, and noting that the company is hitting stride with production of the model three, i'm like, that is just wrong. sources say blackrock's
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interest in buying a minority stake in an asset management unit has cooled after recent meetings failed to resolve an impasse on issues including price. were told talks exposed to risk following thetion recent decline of financial stocks and the broader italian market. and a report that the government plans to toughen warnings against alcohol use. it was one of tuesday's biggest laggards come out all stocks had already been coming under pressure on speculation of a possible tax increase. moutai is down 20% since mid-june and one of the worst performers on the csi 300. shery: central-bank of indonesia says bank of china -- officials
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be allowed tod operate in partnership with local banks. indonesia is trying to boost tourism and export earnings after it was caught up in the emerging market rout. that's about it for "bloomberg daybreak: australia." we will be around for daybreak asia as trading in new zealand is underway. where a few minutes out from the opening in australia. yesterday was a very bearish day. the u.s. performing somewhat better than the asian session with a number of markets falling close to 3%. the pan and china among them, looking like a lackluster be to the trading day overseeing potentially a little bit of bounce in sydney futures ahead of the open. shery: and will discuss all this .est neck twidale
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