haidi: welcome to daybreak australia. and i am sophie kamaruddin. we are counting down to the major market open. haidi: these are the top stories we are covering in the next hour. since food prices through the roof. [round that the earnings of australia's big banks. little changed from year ago. counting down to the vote.

president trump with a string of rallies. let's get a quick check of our markets. we saw apples disappointing apple's -- disappointing forecast. the dow reversing gains. tech and other sectors like utilities some of the most on the s&p 500. the consumer stock for one sector gained ground. job data out of the last showing the hiring rebound is more than it acted in october. some domestically focused stocks. will startow markets this monday session.

could see a cautious tone. for example, the hang seng is .allying over 4% today that cautious tone could be seen. orcould see some support japanese stocks. our first reaction to u.s. jobs data in u.s. and asia bracing for details around iranian oil. today, we are counting down to the open of the shanghai export. reaction to get westpac's disappointing result. taking a look at what is on the agenda, we have meeting minutes due out for october. we also get pmi services.

later today, we will get gdp numbers from indonesia, along with trade figures from september around midday. thank you so much for that. let's get you the first word news. do you on dusty was army on the border between the u.s. and mexico -- the u.s. army was on the border between the u.s. and mexico. ordering era -- area in texas and arizona. sterling is seen as sharpening it the u.k. can reach a deal with the european union. rallied nearly 2% last

week on reports of a financial services come even though officials denied it. recent election setbacks. berlin to plann finding a new leader when angela merkel steps down. she is giving up leadership and will not seek another term as chancellor. indonesia has ordered an official investigation as they -- the search enters an eight day. eighth day. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm haslinda amin. this is bloomberg. in a final, frantic push, president trump is holding five rallies across the country. his primary focus is keeping the senate in republican control. mark is joining us now in the new york studio. where do things stand? are we going to see that the wave we have been talking about? -- we do not know if we will see a blue wave. democrats are poised to pick up the seats that they need to take control of the house, but their margin is down from previous polls. toocrats are in decent shape take the house, but the feeling is the republicans will be able to hold on to the senate and pick up a week or two.

that is what president trump has been focusing on in the final days of the campaign. talking about sending thousands of troops to the u.s. mexican border. how effective has that strategy then? >> there is debate about it. some people think he should be talking about the economy. andeconomy is going well the thinking is this the republican's best card to play. the president has been focusing on immigration. the feeling there is that is the issue that got people to the polls. that is what he thinks will work again in 2018 to get his base to the polls. it is all about turnout, getting your people to vote. it is not so much about persuading people. the focus on immigration

is meant to get his base motivated. haidi: he has been focusing and revving up in those. a -- how has that strategy been playing out? >> that is what we are watching. turnoutget the kind of for these congressional races and senate races? the president is focused less on the house and more on this and it to retain the pub -- the republican majority. , do votersn will be who supported him in 2016 -- particularly democrats or conservatives who voted for him -- today program this year? thank you so much for joining us.

we are previewing these midterm votes as president trump storms the campaign trail. iran industry.n we will see restrictions reimposed in a few hours from now. su keenan have a look at the sanctions. we are looking at these waivers for these eight countries in terms of balancing out the sentiment that we have seen, the shakeup in the oil market. to there was a question as how much oil will be taken off the market. on the eve of the sanctions being imposed, the white house has issued these waivers, giving credence to the bears on wall street. money managers have been cutting their bullish bets for eight straight weeks. that is the longest record for s.arish trend

if we take a look at the big hit a fourl futures year high after beers of sanctions. you can see in the most recent days, it has been insignificant decline. we are down from 20%. we saw those oil prices rise. there are two parts to the story. we are seeing these waivers underscored. we have russia, saudi arabia and the u.s. now producing at greater levels the next acted. while prices have been falling. to put it together, what happened, there are many that believe that oil market volatility, levels not seen in

more than a year will continue. it will be a rough week ahead for oil traders. there will be more clarity. that it an expectation could be taken off the market, but growing evidence that the gap could quickly be filled by the abundant oil that is now out there. the measures targeting the oil sector shipping and transactions. has anmpeo says it enormous impact already with iranian crude exports already down by more than a million barrels a day. hynes is with us. a little bit about those waivers, saying they will be granted to eight countries,

.ncluding japan so as not to drive up oil prices, how successful are we expecting those measures to be? so many scenarios i could see playing out with these sanctions. market was fairly dubious as to the impact. lost 500,000 barrels a day. coming into this initial, there were expectations of relatively all losses. consumers have been very conscious as they have been locked out of the system. that has driven this pushback. thepotential waivers that u.s. may negotiate has disrupted

. what we think is relatively a high risk scenario. they are still very reluctant to take it on amidst this strong arm push from the u.s.. i place a little bit of a question mark over the waivers. whether it is a little bit of a ploy to put some pressure on prices. marker -- market will not withstand any further disruptions. the chart showing that these positions on oil seem to be falling along with the prices. you have the supply issues and added concerns over demand, we get more trade tensions. what will the direction be from here? there are plenty of headwinds

impacting the oil market. seeing the prices really buffeted around by the change in sentiment. it is really difficult to get a sense of how things will progress. from the oil market perspective, i think trade tensions are less of an issue. concept will be more focused on the losses coming out of iran. i think we will see further issues there. i would expect this selloff will be relatively short-lived. what about the implications? at what point do you see it ramping up again in that market? i think the data that came out last week did surprise people by the extent that they

got over the last 12 months. it has been talked about a lot, the constraints on the industry. things such as labor and raw materials. i think those will limit the growth. really until the second half of 2019 where we can really see that growth that we are already seeing return to the u.s. shale market. bit ofes place a little a constraint on supply growth, coming at a time where we are getting these supply disruptions in the market. haidi: the big mining conference last the, pretty much every analyst and ceo has warned about -- regardless of what commodity we are talking about, the supply

constraints. getting more output on the line. it is going to be the story going into next year. does that remain intact? absolutely. we have been watching very closely on this cycle. it appears that producers are much more cautious related to the ramp up that we are seeing in prices. that is understandable considering the issues around the trade war and what it could do for economic growth. run do appear to be more around returns. example to shareholders. see is in issue that we across the complex.

that is going to constrain growth and keep markets relatively tight. shery: we saw steelmakers get a shot in the are because of the is that china could potentially cause taxes on purchases. what are we expecting from the fiscal measures from the commodities market? talking up the market because the data so far has been relatively weak. the pmi's recently highlighted that area we have not seen the rebound that we have been hoping for. until that happens, it is going to be a struggle for commodity prices. that it will eventually play out, probably not until 2019. certainly, that renewed focus on infrastructure spending in

particular and the housing sector, it will provide a good level of support. always appreciate your time. coming to us from a pretty smoggy looking sydney. the big lenders. we will be breaking down there numbers a little later. shery: we are watching for trade war developments. live to shanghai next. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: im shery in new york. haidi: opening the international as the expo in shanghai. our china correspondent tom mackenzie joins us on shanghai.

what are we expecting? that is right. i can model through some of the numbers linked to the expo, the 3000 companies from a hundred different companies. between 9:00ech and 10:00 this morning that will be the highlight, given the trade tensions between the u.s. and china. expectations for some movement on some kind of deal that could happen if the two meet in november. this is a flagship event. he is hoping to address some of the trade concerns that china has with the rest of the world. with the u.s.. we are expecting a deal to be announced, but it is the speech

that will be most important. jinping -- cani president xi jinping say anything to make an impact? he wants to hear from the president, a commitment to open up sectors to have a reciprocal between theement u.s. and china that opens up sectors ranging that remain difficult to get into at the moment. official. a senior eu president xi jinping talked about the commitment to upholding the natural trading order. european'so see the commitment to addressing concerns, whether that is intellectual-property theft,

cyberattacks or market access. they want to see these addressed. if it doesn't, what you make it is another articulation between the sides on how to address these trade tensions. the view from some is that what we are going to hear from the president and others is a commitment to buy more. you cannot buy your way out of this situation. we will be speaking to some of the corporate leaders that are attending this event. it is very much president xi jinping's speech that will make an impact. i've been speaking to the ceo of a small but fast-growing company

based in beijing. they are interesting to talk to because of the pace of growth that they are seeing, but also because they are a report at -- a robotics company. it has caused so much concern in washington, but also in brussels. fromare getting support that policy, not direct financial support, but positivity that helps to open doors. additionalo raise an $200 million. he told me that trade tensions are holding back their objectives of expanding in the u.s.. >> yes. i will plan to grow our business in the u.s. we want to see the results between china and the u.s.

tom: that is an example of some .f the tangible impacts both the europeans and the u.s. have told me that one of the key of the trade war is a slowdown in investment. they are seeing their firms holding back. impact another material between beijing and washington. haidi: thank you so much. just ahead of the first day of the china international x or expo -- export expo. this is bloomberg. ♪

as india's biggest

gas producer jumped 51% to $1.1 billion last quarter as revenues urged 48% to 3.9 billion. dividend.aid a record that affecteddebt a plan to share sale. -- a planned share sale. it may lead to more job losses. remaining off the job for a third day on sunday. they plan to cut jobs and it cannot be reversed. a union of mine workers -- shery: shareholders will vote monday on the proposed $5.4 billion acquisition. the sector has been doing the past three years, it might use

concerns. the deal still needs approval. the more coming up. this is bloomberg. -- plenty more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: it is 6:30 in singapore, 9:30 in sydney. markets open in 30 minutes trying -- time. looking at indicators downside of .3% when australia begins trading. we are looking at a weaker lead , the s&p street following for the first time out of four sessions. concerns over trade continues to weigh and capital -- and apple earnings creating headwind. 5:30 in new york. you are watching daybreak australia. let's get to first word news. haslinda: iran is bracing for the u.s. sanctions in the next

few hours. they have survived years of western pressure. despite the rhetoric sinking into crisis with the plunging high-level corruption. the trump administration's imposing sanctions despite the united nations saying iran is complying with a 2015 nuclear deal. has approved a five-year budget to boost oil production. they will spend $130 billion to raise output to 4 million barrels a day by the end of 2020 and 25 million by 2030. produce 1.5ected to billion cubic feet of gas a day. korea is stepping up attacks on sanctions, threatening to resume its nuclear program if sanctions are not lifted.

this reinforces his comments last week. mike pompeo is due to begin talks in days on a potential second summit between kim and president trump. airlines singapore flight from los angeles turned back after 40 minutes. the flight crew detected in error in engine oil readings. it was declared serviceable and cleared to fly after looking. the airline resumed a direct service to new york on october 11. both routes use the a 5900 ultra long-range plane. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am haslinda amin. this is bloomberg. indices pastedvy declines in wall street. we have disappointing results out of apple. we will see what happens in the asia open after they sell the biggest -- so the biggest jump

in 2016. sophie kamaruddin is here. sophie: headwinds are gathering after the rebound on friday, asian stocks will retrace some of the rally. , thati jinping had to say will be closely watched especially in light of some of the confusing signals coming from the white house regarding trump-xions for the meeting. and we will get pmi readings from hong kong, singapore and the philippines. this after last year's -- last week which was disappointing across the region. we are seeing optimism among corporate in asia. we had taiwan, thailand and indonesia flipping into contraction territory. the world economy shifting to lower gear. the story is we will probably rethink but on the downside. we have optimism when it comes to the brexit story.

i want to highlight the pound. at aing around 130 looking decision is coming in the coming weeks. the pound rally is likely seen no matter the content of the deal. traders ignore any misses in the data if there is positive brexit news. there is a few things percolating. haidi: sophie kamaruddin. what we should be watching no in asia, this monday morning, our reporter joins us in sydney. we are hearing there could be a trade deal on the horizon, strong payrolls out of the u.s. data heavy week for asia, lots of events. how is the start looking? reporter: that is right. there is a lot for the markets to take on board this week. the main thing is this prospect of a trade deal. investors are really looking for

details of what it will entail. we know how quickly things can shift when it comes to trade. there is still skepticism that any deal will be able to be at the meeting with the u.s. and china later this month. of course we also have the fed meeting this week. to dore not expected anything on interest rates. after the very strong payroll numbers we had on friday, investors will be looking for any language, and it does suggest the federal reserve will stick to its path of raising interest rates. we have midterm elections coming up in the u.s. on tuesday. that will be another major event for the markets. investors are saying the risk of divided congress has not been fully priced in. care --come off a

terrible october. we had about a bounce last week. without any rallies, will be staynt to say -- able to sustained. shery: we have seen weakness in the yuan of course. some are worried about ricky the seven level. -- breaking the seven level. why? brian: one of the top saysrming bond funds, he it is acting like it is supposed to. it is a natural stabilizer amid this worsening trade war. he said he would not be surprised if the yuan broker that seven -- broke that seven level, but the implications are

negligible for this and -- for markets and companies. one thing that could prevent is resolve to protect the currency, so we could see some sort of intervention. shery: our global markets editor. don't forget to check out our gtv library for some of the charts we just showed you. finance minister says growth projections for next year need to be reviewed because of the traits that between -- trade spat. the battle increases investor uncertainty and will be felt across sectors. run, the impact is not fully felt yet because our gdp growth forecast remains 3.5% for this year, but any trade tension that affects

globalization will affect everyone, including the countries already involved but also the damage right across the whole economy. the global supply chain is highly integrated. i was speaking to a number of multinationals including american multinationals on the operations, and the impact across sectors. there are shifts that are happening. i hope that this does not escalate. we are going to move away from the global production frontier. long-term growth will be affected. in the short-term there will be thatterm changes in equity will have certain impact and potentially longer-term impact. haslinda: perhaps in 2019 you may have to relocate your projections. >> i think the imf has reached its global growth forecast, and

this will have on even global average number. uneven impact across countries , but we are beginning to see the impact of this with increased uncertainty, reduced investment by businesses. [indiscernible] at this point. haslinda: when we were talking about uncertainties, the emerging markets have had a defeat, currencies getting smacked giving the weakening -- given the weakening of the yuan. have investors overreacted? >> volatility is to be expected. that is why it is important for us, for countries to [indiscernible] extent that is overreaction can be corrected, i don't know. think the players wanted to do

their calculations. i would see the fundamentals are strong and that the efforts put in since the financial crisis and global financial crisis have resilience is bearing fruit. but we got to continue to keep an eye on all, and ensure we do the right thing. haslinda: are you comfortable where the sink dollar is -- sing dollar is? given an export oriented economy, it could not bode well. been veryalways careful in deliberations. economyapore [indiscernible] the state of the global economy. this exchange rate should be the global equalizer in our system. the right monetary policies always important to create [indiscernible]

so businesses can make long-term decisions. monetary and fiscal policy used as a civilizing mechanism but we are focused on structural policy in order to restructure the economy and keep up with the changes ahead. haslinda: you are comfortable with where the sing dollar is now? >> that we give out the statement and the notes what is appropriate. singapore'swas finance minister speaking to haslinda amin. in sydney the last big reporters have -- people have reported. slightly missed expectations here. emily joins us. the last of the big banks report. looking at this return on equity, it is falling into the lowest in a decade. this is a look at the

pressure of the australian banks have been on. there are not many rays of light now. there is continual fallout from the inquiry into the misconduct in the sector, the slowing housing market and the rise in competition from fintech. it is in most -- buildings putting billions in. australian and canadian banks have been world leaders when it comes to return on equities. most are still profitable by global standards. that is getting squeezed right now. if you look at the slowing housing market, will that feed into concerns of consumer spending? the royal commission are plaguing the lenders. emily: australian banks have taken a big that on the housing market. it is around 60% of the total loan book in housing.

that is the highest in the developed world. any slowdown in the market really does seep through. the housing market has [indiscernible] and it is set to continue slowing. you won't find an economist who is excited in sydney, the major here, going to rise for another couple of years. this makes it harder for banks to get earnings growth. shery: thank you so much. the asian finance reporter in sydney. alibaba's earnings blew away analysts' expectations but the outlook is clouded by global trade tensions. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

ahn in new shery york. haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts. alibaba's latest results [indiscernible] but they reduced their annual revenue forecast. the executive vice chairman told

bloomberg proposed talks between residents trump and xi states off activity that would be taken as a positive. >> it is a good thing they are sitting down and about to talk. we hope some good things will come out of that and the tension will get reduced. is a: with me in singapore better look at alibaba's prospects. their fate it that is intertwined with the macroeconomic outlook and trade in china? >> [indiscernible] 60% comes from china commerce. that itself is a big dependency dogs. crate that is what alibaba has been trying to do to reduce dependency weather in international e-commerce, investing in other players in

southeast asia. they have been aggressive. the huge dependency on china commerce market for them as a percentage of [indiscernible] haidi: if you want to compare amazon i guess, like for like, you look at the ratio, under 50. alibaba looks expensive now. this is on the gtv library. amazon is over $100 for its price to earnings. is this the china discount we are looking at? amazon withre alibaba, amazon has been able to do much more bigger story around aws growth. there is a lot more growth expected which is factored in by analysts and you compare amazon. alibaba is building up the cloud story, moving into cloud, some other grocery store areas. that is one of the big factors.

[indiscernible] alibaba is attracting this business to new business models which will be a growth factor in the coming quarters. that is something you will have to say. shery: what about moving off line? they have put a lot of money, attempting to expand offline trying to ask -- trying to compete. how effective will this be? focus. is another the retail outlets, trying to see if they can merge traditional retail with new e-commerce. that is what i think tencent has been able to do much more better job, and that is what alibaba is trying to do now. traditional retail is still marryant, and how do you that especially if you look at

markets like asia-pacific? marrying traditional retailers with e-commerce, that is huge, which is what alibaba's next victim will be. shery: tencent was turning to ads to setback near freezing gain approvals. will this be enough? ajay: [indiscernible] if you look at tencent it is more equal system player now. they have the largest messaging platform globally in terms of we chat. they are trying to create a .ystem and add on new services entertainment media videos are one aspect of it, but how do you monetize the monthly active users? -- ais a bigger and bigger bigger opportunity for them. [indiscernible] just been one of them. with tencent it is the biggest problem what are unknown

with government regulatory tightening. the last two quarters we saw especially if you look at --ns, there is a revelation the gains were dropped. userare more dependent on option. the take a hard stance on gaming, being suitable and not for kids, that could have a big impact in the coming quarters. shery: we are seeing the vista version when it comes to the tech sector in asia against the u.s. both have taken a beating, but this shows how chinese tech really has taken a big hit. movingow they seem to be more in tandem, the correlation has been rising. when it comes to the big stories for the tech sector in both regions this year and next and how their stocks move, what can you point to?

ajay: one of the big factors is the china-u.s. growth rate. any consensus, we will see a big boost, some of the chinese tech stocks. comparison, one of the factors you're seeing, the fanning of the ecosystem. the chinese companies have been a bit slow around building the ecosystem beyond tencent which is building much faster. the things have been able -- faangs have been moving aggressively, and i think the chinese companies will not. trying to build an ecosystem, monitors -- monetize the user base [indiscernible] that is going to be the next big story for the chinese tech stocks. haidi: he will be interesting to see consolidation in the sector. great to have you, the vp for

asia-pacific and communication technology here in singapore. will take a look at warren buffett's big buyback. his appetite for stocks including his own. taking a look at berkshire hathaway. this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪

shery: we are getting dbs results. the singapore bank reporting net income at $1.13 billion .ingaporean that is below estimates. the third quarter net coming in, 2.1% below the average analyst estimate. we are seeing third-quarter nonperforming loan ratio was 1.6% against 1.7% year on year. 1.86%t interest margin

against 1.85% quarter on quarter, 1.7% year on year. there is net coming in below billions of $1.4 singaporean. this is one of the last banks to report earnings. we have seen strong results from singaporean banks being helped by comprising global interest rates -- by rising global interest rates. dbs, there are net income coming in below estimates, haidi. asia's largestt lender, not too bad a rating. they are trying to expand into new capital markets like china. we will get you more details. a look atake legendary investor warren buffett showing renewed appetite for equities, including buying his own shares in berkshire

hathaway. have it would be great to $928 million at your disposal. just to say, my shares are not doing as much as i want them to good let me pull the trigger. that is what he did in august according to a new rule they installed in july. let's show you the rock and a hard place he is in because he and at fridaygger close it was over $300,000. the big question is whether he might do this again because the $312,000 and some change. but is the thing here. one other thing is he has a big cash pile on hand. right now and over the past five warren buffett and berkshire hathaway heaven sitting on a pile worth more than $100 billion.

he doesn't know what to do with it so he says i will go ahead and push this ahead. $1.36 billion. he is taking advantage of this new rule saying they can do this buyback when they believe that shares are less than their intrinsic value. the old rule says they can do it when it is less than 20% of their premium to book ratio. the big question is whether they will do this again. warren buffett has been saying he feels like he should be shoveling cash out to buy things but in terms of what he has already bought, he has $15 billion out in terms of apple, bank of america, wells fargo, coca-cola and american express. haidi: thank you so much for that. the latest on berkshire hathaway . it is almost it for daybreak australia. trading in new zealand is underway. we are a few minutes out from that stagnant open look at how

things are failing. seeing a tepid start to the asian session, the kiwi dollar trading lower and australia looking to open lower by .1%. ♪ show me movies a grinch would love.

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haidi: good morning. i am haidi stroud-watts. shery: i'm shery ahn. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin. welcome to daybreak asia. haidi: our top stories this monday, anger and iran as u.s. sanctions return. that riyal has helped in value -- halved in value this year. terrorists will mean most top names will not be -- tariffs