♪ asian stocks sink. trade optimism tips. and trump's protectionist policies. calling on great britain as one of the biggest global risks. and iran on its longest losing streak in six months. good morning and good afternoon. for then singapore

bloomberg news conference. we will cover a range of topics. the forum invites global leaders to engage with the world. the chief speaking to executive of exxon mobil and mastercard and united will hearl then we from david rubenstein after the , and one of the leaders of goldman sachs. let's look at the markets. they are struggling in europe today. declined as optimism over this china trade deal receipts. -- receded. the fund is strengthening and head a u.k. cabinet meeting -- pound is strengthening ahead of the u.k. cabinet meeting.

let's get to the first word news. u.s. sanctions on iran have gone back and forth after saiddent trump called -- behavior inligned the middle east. countries will get temporary waivers to keep importing iranian oil. as we party taken more crude oil off the market than any time in history. watch the efforts that president trump's policies have achieved. within tworling, 135 days. the divorce deal is agreed upon between britain and the european union. theresa may has secured concessions from brussels to

remain in the customs union with the e.u. theresa may and the cabinet will -- discuss the situation tomorrow. contenders to succeeded chancellor angela merkel as the willr of germany crisscross the country to campaign ahead of the convention next month. was agreed upon over the weekend. germany is heading for another inward looking time. the head of blackrock's german asset management unit is viewed as the front-runner. kuroda says he wants to normalize japanese monetary policy. the central bank governor says

japan is no longer in a situation where it will be decisively implementing a large-scale policy 20 overcome inflation. the japanese economy and inflation are no longer in such a place where large scale stimulus was judged the most important policy. it has taken a long time to achieve our price target. taylor: global news 24 hours a day, and at tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. let's kick off the show with trade, and asian stocks. futures are lower after optimism of a trade deal between the u.s. and china receded. the international expo in shanghai hits back against protectionism. >> in a world of deepening winnerc cooperation, takes all represents a dead end. inclusive growth for all is the

right way. francine: how are trading and tariffs moving the market? joined by the chief investment officer at the bank of singapore. thank you for coming. oryou worry about tariffs, trade wars lasting for the next 20 years? rajiv: that is a major worry. this seemed to be more like a negotiating tactic, to rebalance trade between the u.s. and china. liket's made it seem something more structural. there is a serious worry in china that this is more about containment. am -- what is the

best asset to measure u.s. to deals?- u.s.-china trade we've seen movement with trade comments. that would be one of the most liquid ways of measuring sentiment. francine: how much does this have to do with global trade and active chinese policy? a strongerre is dollar that impacts the currency. one factor. we see it break the seven level and probably go higher. china is planning to adjust for

hardship, based on this trade, slower growth. it needs the currency to adjust downwards. francine: what's the biggest concern for this region? u.s. policy on trade? a china slowdown? a domestic concern? fetish normalization -- fed normalization? something else? rajeev: a china slowdown. it will impact the exports of a lot of asian countries.

the reshipment impacts what happens on the trade front. chinese gdp is difficult to interpret. see some policy action from the chinese government. see some of that turnaround or sentiment that is convincing. francine: thank you. the money manager who predicted the subprime collapse discusses a no-deal brexit. then, we have the bloomberg new with theorum tomorrow, chief executives of exxon mobil, mastercard, and united continental. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg surveillance. we are preparing for the bloomberg new economy forum. let's go to the bloomberg business flash. aylor: gains from technology investments and a solid performance from sprint. to ¥706g profits rose billion. speaking after the results, the said the mobile business will keep rising despite government pressure.

undergoing one of its biggest management shakeups with the departure of its longtime chief executive. theas in charge of electronic payments company for come underut had increasing pressure for its performance. announcinghs will be fewer than 65 partners this week smallest in 20 years, when goldman was a private company. lobbying for promotions is less than in the past. francine: steve eisen has earmarked two british banks as targets. he will not say which banks he is shorting.

about 50as a list of u.k. companies he may bet against the event jeremy corbyn becomes prime minister. joining us from london is the head of global multi-asset strategy at the jpmorgan -- at rajeev, thank you for sticking around. are you sure of anything in the u.k. space? >> with the amount of focus on see the first response, the pound-sterling. feel we're entering a period where political risks around

this take over from any market valuations. if we were to see further tension, we would expect downside on sterling. it can bend weakens, supportive for stocks. until we get more clarity, the prudence, we would tend to stand back on the u.k. francine: don't we keep on delaying this? give another month? as what point did you have to make a decision on whether it is a hard brexit or an agreement brexit? john: there is a deadline in place.

decisions tend to get made at the 11th hour. i don't think this deviates from the normal playbook. immensely complex. we are nearing discussion points. close of some sort is 95% to being a great -- agreed. prudent as an investor, you have to allow the political process to work. have a clearer picture, we will be looking at earnings. rajeev, if you wait, do you miss out on making money? expecting aou're

things are more positive. -- theare expecting process will last until the 11th hour. it is about anticipating whether sentiment will go one way or the other. so many think this is one of the big global risks out there. if there will be a shock, it will be to the u.k. economy, not the rest of the world. : this is the worry in the context of the way we look at europe. we have gotten past the worst, the rise of populism -- it is

well registered. not worried that a hard brexit would cause a significant global shock. francine: those of you stay with us. u.s. votes in the midterm elections tomorrow. ande do the polls stand what do the results mean for the markets? we will discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is bloomberg

surveillance. we are preparing for the bloomberg new economy forum. many of americans are already voting to decide the shape of congress. the results will help to shape the second half of trump's term. democrats are hopeful they can grab the house and possibly the senate. former president obama and president trump are making their final pushes. >> this is one of the most important elections of our lifetime. i wouldn't say it is as important as 2016, but it is right up there. it's become incredible. there is an electricity in the

air. days, indiana, you get to vote in what i believe will electionst important of our lifetime. i know politicians say that. but this time it is true. america is at a crossroads. the health care of millions is on the ballot. a fair shake for working families is on the ballot. francine: what are we expecting from tomorrow's vote? let's get straight to our u.s. politics reporter. with usat this is -- are john and rajeev.

we have already seen a strong turnout from early voting. is this likely to help? tend to voteocrats early more often than republicans. seens party lines this is as a good sign for democrats that there is such a high rate. potentially be a sign of the strong democratic enthusiasm we've expected going midterms. there are concerning factors for democrats when it comes to voting patterns in midterms. young people and hispanic voters, who tend to favor democrats, do not tend to come out as much during midterms. this high rate of early voting cuts against the concern. athleen: how is this a vote on trump's popularity? what does this mean for president trump's reelection if

there is a democratic wave? any midterm election tends to be framed as a referendum on presidential policies. what we are seeing is a referendum on president trump's political style. this midterm election is being viewed as a referendum on that. if we do see a democratic wave andrialize tomorrow night, democrats take control of the house and keep their margins in portendse, that potential problems for trump heading into the reelection, is a flashing red light to say there is this backlash. side, if democrats don't win control of the house, we will see an emboldened president. you put your do

portfolio into the position where you don't lose money? could have a small democratic win. that's not too negative for assets. you have a risk behind you. four portfolios going into the end of the year, it could be somewhat more positive. if republicans do well, that will be more risk on and more dangerous for bonds. democrats could make it difficult for trump to reach an agreement with china. would complicate the situation in this region. do you play the dollar? it's reflected in its rise

over the past few weeks. the midterm elections play into that as well. this is something the markets would like to have behind them. baseline vehicle of the democrats taking congress seems to be well absorbed by markets, but those risks need to be taken into account. you, all three. this is bloomberg. we will talk a little bit about iran and oil when we come back. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. .his is "bloomberg surveillance " i'm francine lacqua in

singapore. presidente chinese has hit back against traditionalist trade practices advocated by president donald trump. in a speech in which he also plans to cut import tariffs to open up his country's market. he said china would continue to promote globalization and pledged to boost domestic consumption. >> in a world of deepening economic cooperation, practices like the law of the jungle and winner takes all only represent a dead end. inclusive growth for all is surely the right way forward. contenders etsy angela say angela merkel will crisscross the country. they say it is looking for --

the one-time party antagonist is viewed as the front runner. harvey has dropped a heavy hints that he was to normalize japanese policy. the central bank governors says japan is no longer in a situation where it is best to be decisively implementing a large-scale policy to overcome deflation. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs, this is bloomberg. much.ne: thank you so we are just getting data out of the u.k.. services pmi a touch below expectations for the month of october. it is above 50. at 52.2ure coming in instead of 53.3.

overall figure of 52.1 instead of 53.4. the pound is pretty much as it was. it did rally a little bit earlier on on signs of progress a brexit, giving investors hint of what may happen if a deal is struck in the coming weeks. watch out for pound and brexit. we also need to look at iran, u.s. sanctions on iranian oil that were lifted have now officially come back into effect as of today. the renewed measures come as president trump fulfill vows to rub up pressure on the islamic republic. washington has softened its hard-line stance and says it will allow waivers to eight nations. brent prices have fallen more than 18% over the past month. the measures on iran will only crude.he outlook on heard from iranian

politicians so far? we have had the president respond this morning. he typically had a very defiant tone and was very confident about the way iranians can withstand the pressure. he really criticized the bank and said they have to really reform if the country is going to list and the pressure. he also said it is possible for iran to talk to the u.s. if the u.s. can respect its own promises and own deals. position onof of a whether iran could possibly speak to the u.s. in the future. caveat that already the united states has already reneged on.

a very defiant position from the government here this morning. francine: how can the private sector deal with this? golnar: the private sector is going to feel the pain probably more acutely than anywhere else. the big industries in iran like the auto sector and oil have pretty much put their state owned on hold. they're going to be bailed out and supported as much as possible by the government because they are huge employers in iran as well. arguably over the past six years, particularly after the .uclear deal they are really going to feel the pain. especially those retailers are ,eople in sporting goods

household goods. i think this kind of suppliers are really going to be hurt. clothing retailers, especially. francine: thank you so much. how does the reintroduction of sanctions play into the oil market? what does it mean for oil? we were seeing a trend of oil going to 100 we now have a waiver. . where do you see it going? ultimately, oil is still going to be an asset. one of the reasons it came under pressure is we came through much of october and saw that repricing of global growth. that took some of the steam out of the significant rally we had seen in oil. this creates some volatility in oil prices. i would still expect oil to be mostly moving in lockstep with

the broad, overall tone of economic sentiment around the globe. an iranian oilis guessing game? do we know what the next move is? >> it is complicated and there was confusion added with these waivers. i think everybody wanted to manus the situation and not let theet out of hand -- manage situation and not let it get out of hand. the saudi's also pitched in as well to help somewhat. i agree there was also sleeping global demand. i don't see this weakening and oil continue to much because there is progressively a loss of supply. the world economy, while it may not be going as fast as it was before, is going pretty well. francine: do we know how much a rainy and oil will actually be removed from the market? that is thek

question with the waivers being granted. atimately looking inventories more closely in the u.s. is going to be something money oil analysts are going to be doing. also, the broad picture, which is what is an appropriate oil price for the globe? $100 oil is going to be a strain on the consumer. opec and other conventional producers will see a significant dent in oil as problematic for their own economy. i think around the edges of this, how this plays out both in terms of what it is signaling in terms of trade, the u.s. intentions in terms of its relationship with to ron -- tehran, i think we look again at oil being an expression of what is going on in the global economy. global growth has slowed some, so slightly softer oil prices is

reasonable. broadly, overt long-term for oil prices to be reasonably supported by that growth outlook. francine: do you agree with that? at some point, if it goes to 90 or 100, it will start to taking demand off the table. is there a sweet spot for oil? rajeev: that is an excellent question in the context of a stronger dollar. time, for many importers outside of the u.s. dollar black, they are facing higher oil as well as a stronger dollar. india, indonesia, south korea have all felt the shock. we have seen india and indonesia suffered over the last couple months early on oil. the sweet spot is way below. for the global economy, it seems to be chugging along at these levels.

if we go toward 90 or higher, they'll be substantial pressure on them. francine: do you think it is also being used as a risky asset? is it more of a hedge than it used to be? rajeev: it definitely follows global growth. where it is a bit more complicated is where the dollar was more strong. francine: thank you both. john and rajeev stay with us. coming up tomorrow, we will be live from the bloomberg economy forum in singapore. we will have interviews with the chief executive of exxon mobil, mastercard. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. here is taylor riggs. taylor: softbank has topped analyst estimates in a solid performance from the corporation. operating profit rose to ¥760 billion, far exceeding the sex dutch analyst -- france's angelico group is undergoing one of the biggest management shakeup ses of modern times.

he had a silly come under increasing pressure for its -- recently come under increasing pressure for its performance. steve says the u.k. is the biggest threat he is watching, but won't say which banks he is shorting. there is a list of about 50 u.k. companies he made by against in the event of jeremy corbyn becoming prime minister. much.ne: thank you so area finance ministers are gathering as the eu waits for the government and wrong to respond to unprecedented rebuke it received two weeks ago. taddeo is inaria brussels with the latest.

maria: italy really is the focus point of the euro group meeting going on today in brussels. all eyes will be on giovanni. i do have to point out, he really has lost the trust of markets. all institutions here will tell you the real power brokers are to my and solving he -- salvini. the european commission says discussions are still very fluid and open. what is becoming clear is a don't want to turn this into a big political fight just yet. they think they still have time to get the italian government to backtrack. for that, the market reaction will be key. 3 thank you some -- francine: thank you so much. what does the situation in italy mean for the markets? still with us are john and rajeev. first of all, we are also talking about possible italian sanctions. would these be two years down

the road, three years down the road, or could we have a slap on the wrist that would mean italy having to pay up to brussels in the short-term? john: i think italy are taking the calculation that the sanctions, unclear on how our isn it will be levied, something that doesn't get in the way of their domestic agenda. i think this is an example of how european politics tend to play out in the public sphere. that could be quite worrying to markets. i think if you peel back to look at what is going on, it does demonstrate that we do have this ongoing set of issues around europe, which potentially make area we want to put investment into. we do continue to have some of these tail risks. if we were to see a situation where it were resolved quickly,

with invalid potentially give a boost to the euro, was a be a bit of a headwind for european earnings given the export base. us thats to remind europe remains quite a difficult economy in which to invest in the equity markets at this particular time, even if we were to see a resolution come around quite quickly. francine: is this on italy are as i -- or does it also have to do with the fact that angela merkel will be chancellor much longer. after 13 years, you could have a new chancellor in the next couple of years. john: again, it creates uncertainty. that is one thing markets don't like. she is been something of a talisman for germany given her leadership for the crisis. as markets look forward and begin to adapt with what it might mean without her, i think is something the calculus is still being formed even as we

speak, given that there are a number of candidates vying for the position there, many of them with different policies, what it means not only for germany but for the eurozone more broadly is something that is what take a few months to begin to get a handle upon. question, if you lton,n to john bi where is there not uncertainty right now in the world economy? it is something we really have to keep in mind. that is worrying. the problem is that it will probably continue until may, until he has a european parliamentary election. that worry will weigh on us. is, onethe view that it has to be careful. if it wasn't for this italian story, i think i would be more bearish on the dollar.

the euro dollar is such an important component of the overall dollar story. where do you go? if you don't go into europe, you sort of have to stay with the dollar. if europe did stabilize and some --that did stabilize francine: thank you so much. john and rajeev stay with us. projects that 2019 will be a seminal year of rising risks. we will discuss more on their findings about next year's global economy. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i'm francine lacqua here in singapore for the bloomberg economy forum. annmarie: we just got a bit of a u-turn this hour, broadly speaking across european dax are allse, cac, slightly in the green after optimismres decline as

over a potential u.s.-china deal preceded. fade whiledeal telecom and utilities are the big winners. let's look at the individual winners. morning.p some 3% this positive note from bernstein saying while sales were 1% below consensus, they did beat and -- ingenico. longtime ceo and chairman is stepping down following requests from the board. metro bank to the downside. there one of the biggest followers on the banking front. u.k. banks it really in the crosshairs as the big short steve eiseman says he is shorting to u.k. banks on brexit. metro and cyb g of the most shorted financials on the ftse

index. francine: thank you so much. annmarie with some of the main movers we are watching out for. ineers, onelth an of the big movers. jpmorgan, and their annual assumptions report, the analyst noted that 2019 could be symbolic and even a seminal year of rising risk. still with us, john and rajeev. it is a good report, along report, but basically, you see gdp growth. that is pretty optimistic. john: it hasn't really changed your on your. we predict in the next year the next 10-15 years. seeing 2.5% average real gdp growth globally is consistent

with a fairly stable long-term outlook. the reason why we are arguing that next or could be a seminal year is because one of two things that has never happened before is going to happen. either the u.s. is going to make a new record in terms of the links of this particular cycle, or it is going to roll over. either one is going to be an important signaling point. longer-term investors need to be increasingly aware of where we sit in the cycle. with notice to this with u.s. assets and particular because we are getting these increased growth concerns. we have seen the fed raising rates. are atlike 10 year bonds a new level. we are taking note of the fact that market pricing is telling us that we should be leaning perhaps toward a slightly more defensive portfolio. some of the earlier discussions on this program have showed it is difficult to find compelling arguments and a lot of regions

globally today over the next 6-12 months, leading us to concentrate risk back for places like the u.s. where growth is coming through reasonably strongly. as we are getting that later psychodynamic, bonds are dynamic.-- cycle ultimately, that is the key to long-term investing, not just thinking about what happens in 2019, but thinking about the contour of growth thereafter. francine: do you care about 2019 or are you just worried about 2020? this is the euro everybody tells me we may be in trouble because it is the end of the fiscal stimulus in the u.s., the end of the tax cuts. we may have a cyclical slowdown which could lead to a possible worldwide recession. v: i think it will be --

the fiscal stimulus will still help in the first part of the year. for the end of the year, we will have additional bytes from fed hikes. the reduction in the fiscal stimulus, both kicking at the same time, plus the general global weakening and the emerging markets side.china is not going to rebound next year ,. we don't expect additionalbe an source of dampening of global growth. nothing to that. francine: thank you so much. surveillance continues in the next hour. tom keene joins me out of new york. we will talk oil, iran, singapore. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: asian stocks sink as

trade optimism fades. xi jinping slams the law of the jungle and availed jive i donald trump's protectionist policies. because great britain one of the biggest risks globally. ie u.s. three imposes sanctions onran. -- sanctions on iran. protesters in tehran shouted "death to america." i'm francine lacqua here in singapore for the new economy forum. tom keene in new york. it is interesting to be in china looking at the trade war. it is especially interesting in being in singapore where you hear a lot of the chat from city states finance ministers saying they may have to reassess the growth pattern is the trade war's escalate. tom: important issues in the

united states. forget about the fed meeting later this week. , front and center. francine: that may have an impact on foreign policy. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. those u.s. sanctions on iranian oil sales that were lifted and part of the 2015 nuclear agreement are now back in place. president trump is fulfilling his promise to increase pressure on iran, over what it calls its malign behavior in the middle east. the u.s. will grant temporary waivers in eight countries allowing them to keep importing iranian oil. president's has hit back against president trump's protectionist trade practices. he said the winner take all policies are dead and. he also promised to further cut tariffs. on imports and open up china's market president has rallies set for ohio and missouri on the final

day of campaigning before midterm elections. ares show the democrats poised to regain control over the house of representatives. british prime minister theresa may reportedly has secured concessions on a customs union from the european union. times,ng to the sunday the eu has agreed to all of the u.k. can stay in the customs union to avoid a hard border with northern ireland. the times of says that could increase the chances of getting a brexit deal through parliament. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. tom: right now, a data check. real lift up with risk on yields come out, i will show that in a minute. curve steepening over the last two trading days.

euro turns. vix, 20.35. the dow closing on friday. what is important here is the yield. i just use a 30 year yield on the bond. 3.45%. that should be read their lower by one basis point. that has really extended out to new, higher yields. treasuries also have on my data check. asian shares that are now closed decline after optimism receded stocks in europe. also struggling for traction. it is all about whether the european union and the u.k. a closer. maybe there was further progress of these brexit negotiations. dollar rising against most of its major peers. tom: a stronger pound as well.

why didn't you take it off for us? francine: let's start with asian stocks are traded on u.s. futures are lower after optimism over a potential u.s.-china deal. opened thesident xi expo in shanghai heading back ist traderadition policies in the u.s.. >> and a world of deepening economic corporation, practices like the law of the jungle and winner take all only represent a dead end. inclusive growth for all is surely the right way forward. francine: that was president xi jinping at the expo in shanghai. komal and syed join us now. you look at trade policies and where we are sitting here in asia, how concerned are these

economies that these trade tensions instead of receiving, escalate. >> economies are very concerned from china outwards. investors are very worried that there won't be any trade agreement at the g20 meeting at the end of november. so far, we have seen countries react very skeptically to last week's news. the worry we have is the next four weeks, investors will hold on and hope that they will get any real trade agreement until the end of the month. francine: what are you expecting? i expect volatility and a lot of correction. i think what you are seeing is that the trade and impact of the trade war is much more powerful compared with the tax cuts impact, which is starting to fade now. this third quarter is weaker than the second quarter. the fourth quarter is going to be even weaker. the biggo into 2019,

story is going to be trade wars rather than the tax cuts. they are adding to volatility in the equity market, as well as in the bond market. beyond, afterher the impact of the job growth that tom referred to a couple of minutes ago, that starts to fade. i think just as we are at the peak growth situation, we are probably also on the peak situation in terms of the riyadh. i can see that continuing. we love to have you together on your. mansoor, let me go to you. what about peak dollar? are be anywhere near peak dollar? : i think the markets

will have to look at the dollar peaking at some stage. i don't think we are clear at the moment. i still think there are a few things we need to get out of the way before we see the dollar peak. the bid to be some resolution on china and the u.s. i don't think that happened in the next few weeks. the third issue is clearly what happens with other central banks. and looks like that is going to be delayed even further. lastly, emerging markets, can they come back or not? at this stage, it is hard for them to rally when there is so much concern about the yuan and euro.peak dollar will occur , but it is probably still a few months or few quarters away. francine: what happens after that? mansoor: we think the dollar will begin.

if it does fall, you would expect the euro to make the highs we saw last year. they are still a long way from where we are now. the trick is to get the timing right and it is still not clear the dollar is about to start falling. francine: i know you love your bloomberg terminal. what their try to figure out is what is the best asset to measure china-u.s. trade deal sentiment. kumar: the best way i see is what happens to the yuan or renminbi exchange rate. you saw a lot of optimism at the end of last week. as the trade optimism is fading, the chinese currency is weakening. that will be a very good indicator. rare deficit in the current account of the balance of payments in the first half of this year. i have gone back as far as 2010 and this is the very first time in his happened. asthe extent that continues

a result of the trade tension and fall off in chinese export growth, that is going to be an indicator to watch as well. know seven is an emotional number. what are the ramifications of chinese currency and president xi and all of china? mansoor: i think the ramifications are threefold. asian currencies and markets would likely start to weaken again. particularly, global markets would be concerned again about the uncertainty of a fast appreciation of the yuan. whatost important thing is does it signal about the strength or weakness of china's economy. i think if the yuan weekends, investors -- weakens, investors may weekend growth. both of staying with

us. coming up tomorrow, the chief executive of dan coats a industries. we will talk to him about natural resources, oil and trade concerns. this is bloomberg. ♪

taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance." barclays was the worst performer and europe's the toughest stress test yet. all the banks have enough capital to withstand the harshest outcome, but the result of barclays might be a setback for the ceo's plan to boost return for shareholders.

softbank reported second-quarter profits that far exceeded the highest analyst estimates. from an the company primarily telecom operator into technology investment firm with fund.00 billion vision apple reportedly won't boost production for the new iphone xr. the company told the subcontractors about plans are to halt plans dedicated to the device. that is your bloomberg business flash. mansoor and sri-kumar are with us. right now in singapore, at the um isberg new economy for t mansoor. i really want to go back to the

days of u.n. jonathan anderson at ubs talking about the real china. i don't see that literature anymore anywhere. what, right now is the real china that president x is dealing withi, handling with. what is the real china we are missing in our research coverage? mansoor: thank you very much for the kind words. i was in china last month. i was really surprised with how concerns are about the trade side, uncertainty, what will happen with the global economy and slowdown in china's economy. are camo is not sure feeling a lot more concerned about the yuan. i had gone into the trip thinking the authorities have enough ability to hold the country. i came away thinking if the answer market is so concerned, authorities will have to let the yuan slide.they won't be able to

hold indefinitely . mansoor really pushing aggressively against this fear word, a hard landing. gauge of for us now, the proximity of the hard landing for china. i still think people like stephen roach are right. i think the authorities have enough ability to cushion, slow down the economy. the bigger worry is that the egg economy -- economy is fragile with external shocks about to hit. we of already had that with some of the trade increases this year. my concern now is that the currency is a lot more volatile than years ago. that will spill over into financial markets just as we have seen in 2015. francine: we heard in the last 20 minutes or so from the

alibaba chairman saying that china will have lots of trade deficits because of a shift in the next 20 or 30 years. what he was saying was that the problem of the future for china's job creation and not trade deficits. do you agree? umar: i think job creation is going to be the biggest economic and social challenge for china. they have already succeeded in reducing dependence on exports. exports to gdp is somewhat harmed from the 39%-40% that it was. it is much more dependent on domestic consumption. the legitimacy of the xi jinping administration and its ability to hold onto power and keep away the opposition to the role, i think it is very important that employment do well. in terms of what is happening in theexternal situation,

outlook is a big concern. i've long maintained that the rate for the renminbi is not a big deal. we are going to cross it. if that were to happen, you have issues as well with respect to the level of debt and the dollar-denominated debt that some of the chinese holders have. and you deal with that, then follow the impact on employment, it is good to be quite significant. story ishe china going to be very important for economy.so far , we have done very well with the u.s. leading the global economy. once you have a shortcoming on the chinese side, i think it is going to be a very different story, which is why i think the employment situation, the story in china has to go hand-in-hand with the global synchronized

slowdown that i anticipate. mansoor withr and us this morning. asiag up, conversation on and a new economy forum. stay with us from singapore and new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

surveillance this morning from the bloomberg new economy forum in singapore. with of midterm elections and fed meeting in new york this week. with us right now are mansoor with francine and singapore. sri-kumar. let us all listen to two presidents. >> this is one of the most important elections of our lifetime. i wouldn't say it is as important as 2016, but it is right up there. it really is. incredible. there is electricity in the air like i haven't seen says the 2016 big victory we'll had together. >> in today's, indiana -- two days, indiana, you get to vote

and what i believe will be the most important election of our lifetimes. and a politicians always say that, but this time, it is really true. america is at a crossroads. millions isare of on the ballot. a fair shake for working families is on the ballot. tom: they will travel today as well.president obama and president trump . it is a buoyant economy, it was a jobs report as good as this lombardi's last year with the green bay packers. did that economy helped the republicans and help president trump? umar: it helps that the job reports came just a few days before tomorrow's elections.

as to whether it would stop the changeover from the republican hands into democratic hands, i seriously doubt. clearly, the popularity of the president has increased as a result of the jobs report. few might help us in a states that are borderline as to whether they go republican or democrat. overall, the issue is despite the very strong wage growth that you referred to in the latest reports, if you go back to the last 10 years of economic discovery, this has been very weak on the wage front, and it has still been very high on unemployment. i think those are really still going to be a factors that reflect the republican side. tom: what is so important here is the core idea with an immigration that if a foreigner takes a job, someone off a caravan or someone off an airplane or from ellis island of another time, that they're

taking the job from an american. all the reporting i see says that is not true. americans won't do the jobs. which is it? sri-kumar: i think both of them are somewhat true. immigrants are coming and taking jobs u.s. citizens are not going to take. that is an important influence. with wage increase, it has not been good. participation rate still remains low. it is easy to say to the people who are suffering, who are not in the stock market, but depending on wage increases, that it is all because of the immigrants that you are failing. that is not the nature of economic, but the immigrants are responsible for it. politically, that works, but economically, i don't think that is true. francine: how does this play out on the dollar? mansoor: the markets are expecting the democrats to take the house tuesday night, but not

take the senate. the risk is that the democrats don't take the house. if that is the case, the dollar will rally in stock markets will rally. and mansoor with us sri-kumar in london. lots to talk about including the american economy in asia and our bloomberg new economy forum as well. hour.with us in the 12:00 westin with the congressman from rhode island. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: bloomberg surveillance different today. i am in singapore. tom keene in new york. let us get to first word news. show that the

democratic party is set to win a majority in the house of representatives tomorrow. a survey projects democrats to win 225 seats in the house beyond the number it needs to regain control. republicans hope that president trump's campaigning will make a difference. the president has rallies today in ohio and missouri. in indonesia, investigators say the plane that crashed had malfunctions on four of its previous flights. the safety committee is said those problems involve the error seat indicator. they have asked boeing and u.s. air officials to take corrective steps. the european union finance chiefs meet in brussels today to discuss the escalating budget standoff with italy. the you has rejected the budget because of the deficit. acknowledged there is

no plan b. the government has no intention to comply with e.u. demands. there has been a shakeup in qatar. younger royals and prominent executives to leadership positions. the changes include the top jobs that qatar petroleum. arabia's under pressure about the boycott it began last year. global news 24 hours a day and at tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs. this is "bloomberg." francine: thank you. u.s. sanctions on a rainy and oil that were lifted as part of the nuclear accord -- on iranian oil there were lifted as part of the nuclear accord come back into effect today. itsington has softened

hard-line stance and announced it will grant waivers to eight nations for now. supports forth longest losing streak in nine months. joining us now is our reporter. first of all, how has the reacted to thean sanctions? >> this morning, he gave a and heto his cabinet struck the same tone he has been using in the past few weeks and months. is not closed,an speaking to the u.s. but that the u.s. had to respect its own promises and its own agreements u.s. shows given that the -- it is a closed door.

will keep exporting oil despite sanctions. the news that we had over the weekend that the u.s. will announce waivers to eight nations. we have had the same tone struck among officials this morning. difficultwhy is it so to know how much iranian crude production will clock over in the coming months? >> they are using the same tactics as in the past to camouflage the amount of oil they are using. they are disconnecting the transponder. it automatically transmits the latitude and longitude of the tanker. most of those are off at the moment. that is making it more

difficult. andamount of satellites they are tracking, each of those tankers, has increase. i am sure the americans are tracking each of those. we are going to know quickly what is happening. tom: how will these sanctions affect the people in tehran? if you get away from the international headlines, what will be the affect of these? immediately is that we have economists ande, the central bank has said that spending power has reduced. that happens naturally when you see a sudden decline in the value of the currency and wages staying where they are. phenomenonatural

when you see a collapse in the currency. spending power has been reduced significantly. something predictable that middle classes are going to be feeling the pressure and the pain. to sendho had plans their kids to study abroad, may in europe, asia, they have to put those plans on hold. is weak and they can probably no longer afford to do that. tom: help us with the supply elasticity's we will see in the next two weeks, the next pap to be in a. who will make these -- the next vienna. we have seen saudi arabia

bumping significantly. russia has been increasing production. united states production is higher than we thought. the u.s. government has revised its estimates for production over the summer and the u.s. is producing more than 11.3 million barrels a day, a record high for the u.s., making it the highest oil producer in the world. all of that is compensating iran decline and it could be enough to compensate for the losses and keep prices in check. francine: thank you so much. we are back with komal kumar and syed mansoor mohi-uddin. when you look at the dynamic of dollar with oil, it used to have

more of a limp. there was0 years ago, a negative correlation between oil and the dollar. at the same time, the fed is the only big central bank that looks through price rises. key to why the dollar can sovereignwhether wealth funds are able to accumulate excess dollars. they tend to diversify aggressively out of those reserves. you need to see higher oil prices first. at 100, itf it was would hurt demand for oil from emerging markets. is there a sweet spot? where weit has been have been, around $75 or $80. most middle east producers can

accumulate and enough to pay for fiscal deficits. if it would go high, it would begin to hurt emerging markets. talk about the countries as we have you here from singapore. to talk about the nations of the south china sea. translate their in economy's into the giant of china. translate the dynamics of the south china sea nations with china. mansoor: you should split them up into two camps. you have got places like singapore with low interest rates. if the chinese currency weekends, that will stop the fed from raising rates, you expect the singapore dollar to strengthen again. then you have economies of that

have higher interest rates, like indonesia or malaysia. vulnerableto be more to the fed rate tightening cycle. if the fed were to stop, markets may be concerned about slowdown andhe global economy currencies will weaken. we try and split the currencies of southeast asia into two blocks. i would keep singapore in a different camp to indonesia and malaysia. withwhat will singapore do their fiscal policy? it has been such a ride. in the new singapore, with the dynamics of malaysia, the political cycle, what is the mandate for singapore? mansoor: singapore and malaysia have different, complementary economies.

i am sure singapore will continue to follow prudent policies. is a financial center with other industries. macroeconomic stability. the government is aware of that and have achieved that well. what do we expect? singapore will follow the same prudent macroeconomic policies. tom: the conversation seems almost to be greek to the administration in washington. do you expect a continuation of this after the election? i expect that very much from the u.s. side. president trump has indicated it terms u.s. first and in of the isolation, the isolation has been on the chinese side,

the china-u.s. relationship. that is going to continue. xi's speech seems to indicate there is not going to be a letdown in the fight between the countries. asia, the region will continue to feel the wrath of the president. china and india got the exemption in terms of buying oil but asian countries are going to continue to have -- be on the downside as far as u.s. form policy is concerned. what president trump has done is make sure he has a treaty going on in terms of the north american free trade agreement. he may reach some accord with europe. and china inal particular seemed to be isolated and that is expected to continue. francine: thank you both.

both stay with us. , theg up tomorrow mastercard president and chief executive officer at 7:00 a.m. in london. we will talk about payments and trade. this is "bloomberg." ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. hasbig shorts, eisman

earmarked two british banks as targets. he said the u.k. is the biggest threat. are thenk and cabg biggest shorted banks. this isus to discuss the managing editor. , it seems ify idea it is these two, they have more to fear if briggs it goes badly -- if briggs it goes badly. -- if brexit goes badly. >> we have no idea. what we do know is that banks that are most exposed to the of. would be a greater risk brexit, if there is no deal and that could lead to economic contraction.

aboutne: we are talking because he predicted the financial crisis when so many missed it. ,hen he had 50 stocks to short what does jeremy corbyn as a prime minister mean for u.k. banks? >> he is talking about stocks in general. there is concern about nationalization. the bankshe banks, that suffered most in the stress test we saw on friday were other banks, boys and barclays. -- boyds and barclays. a no deal could play a significant role in the outlook for those. the our viewers have understanding of the merger abilities of u.s. banks.

the united kingdom is a mystery. do you assume that united kingdom banks will consolidate? been enough consolidation. have had bigger banks being challenged by upstarts created after the financial crisis. you see smaller players struggle to gain market share and to do the in the way of denting opportunity for big players. you could expect to see those combining or be absorbed. the bigger consolidation has happened. it is something you might see on the continent, whether it is markets such as germany, italy, all that consolidation we will see more domestically.

francine: thank you. syed mansoor mohi-uddin stays with us. will bep tomorrow, we talking to the exxon mobile chairman. that is at 6:00 a.m. in new york. he will have a thing or two to say about sanctions. this is "bloomberg." ♪

taylor: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm taylor riggs. will name the fewest number of new partners in 20 years. to announce akely bit fewer than 65 people will be promoted. ceo told goldman managers to be selective this year. showed a growing appetite for equities. more money into stock purchases last quarter than he has in more than four years. -- $928 billion on buying back his own stock.

late rockstar,he freddie mercury and the band queen, was a winner at the box office. bohemian rhapsody took in $50 million in north america. and thethe nutcracker four realms. that is your business flash. tom: francine lacqua in singapore. i'm tom keene in new york. kumar, one of our most popular guests. do you feel we got it wrong that great america? komal: the second quarter being strong was anticipated because that was the affect -- the peak affect of the tax cut. you see fourth-quarter expectations are slower.

was a bomb, an increase in the growth rate. the long-term trajectory is present. tom: we just had taylor talking about mr. buffett and the idea of share buybacks. we have not seen much capex. do you assume that capex does not materialize? komal: the capex i do not think will materialize because of the fact that the tax cuts have got more into share buybacks, increasing dividends, rather than capital spending. having increased interest rates and if they wage growth number for friday is going to make the fed more inclined to increase toes on december 19 and suggest three increases in 2019, that will be a negative for capital spending. i think we are seeing a

continuation of the impact which is why i feel much better about and thinking the increase is temporary and unlikely to continue longer-term. you have the situation with the trade war accelerating. tariffs are going to be effective in the new year. an influence to be in terms of where it is taking place. the second point is, a merging markets account for 60% of the global gdp and they are going to put an negative impact on global growth in general and u.s. growth. francine: what is the take on southeast asia? there is the global monetary policy tightening and the risk of capital outflows.

do you worry about the state of these economies? komal: i worry about the growth rate very much for a couple of reasons. region, evenhe though the bank of japan talked about normalizing rates in his country and if he perceives with it, and the bank titans, that is going to be negative for japan and the region. the big influences going to be china. of the the impact slowdown in economic growth and trade tensions. i was in india looking at it and this is a country which provides the second-most influence on growth and even though the growth has kept up, higher oil prices are taking a toll and that is negative.

all of those are emerging from southeast asia. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. we are going to continue with the beginning of a busy week. marty schenker, kevin cirilli will join us. 12:00 in an at briefing on the american economy. harm bandholz will join us with unicredit. interest rates higher. and with us from singapore a beautiful new york. this is "bloomberg." ♪ [ phone rings ] what?!

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yields, weaker oil after that strong u.s. jobs report. presidents -- to tomorrow's election. who will turn out to vote? on the new globalization, the new asia and the new china. it is a new economy form in singapore. this is bloomberg surveillance live from new york. in our studios in singapore, with the new economy for room ♪ ♪ um. what do we expect to see in the coming hours? francine: singapore is interesting. this is a city state. it is an international trading hub their benefits of this movement of goods between manufacturing centers and has seen exports ease. study on if the

trade war gets worse instead of better, how much this economy would lose. tom: the bottleneck of the straits of malaysia. right now, that republicans democrats. here is taylor riggs. taylor: those u.s. sanctions on iranian oil sanctions sales that were lifted are back in place. president trump is fulfilling his promise to increase pressure on iran over what he calls malign behavior in the middle east. the u.s. will grant waivers to 8 countries, allowing them to keep importing iranian oil. in china, president xi jinping has hit back against president trump's protectionist trade policies. he told a conference that the law of the jungle and winner take all policies are a dead and. he promised to open china's market. president trump is set for rallies in ohio, missouri, and

indiana. poll showed democrats are poised to regain control of the house but there are no guarantees. the edge has narrowed in recent weeks thanks to a blizzard of television ads. in indonesia, investigators said the boeing 737 that crashed had malfunctions on this last flights. the safety committee has said aire problems involve the speed indicator. they have asked boeing and u.s. air officials to take corrective steps. global news 24 hours a day and at tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs. this is "bloomberg." tom: after the big lift, the risk on feel of the end of last week. we will call it an adjustment.

futures flat. we come in from 30 basis points on a steeper yield curve. oil weaker by .5%. 20.3.x the dow closing friday and yields centered higher. i am looking at asian stocks. they did decline as optimism over this trade deal faded. treasuries are climbing, the pound edging higher. we did see signs of that the u.k. and european union could be closer to breaking a deadlock. stocks in europe are moving sideways and they are unchanged. tom: thank you. lots of good reading over the weekend. a terrific morning with theravance really -- with kevin cirilli. marty schenker is the only one i

know who knows what vince lombardi is. unemployment is at its lowest rate since vince lombardi coached his last game. fear is on the republican menu. peace and prosperity are side dishes. gdp may be booming but our moral gdp is in recession. our gift is martin schenker. carrie haynes with us in washington. exciting before the election. two presidents out campaigning. who has got the momentum? at the polls,look you would see that the democrats swung out of favor and back in and with the tragedies in the u.s. in the last week and donald trump's reaction, they came back up.

now that trump is on the trail, it looks like the momentum has shifted back to the gop. tom: all the research we aggregate, let us aggregate turnout. i do not have a clue. you do not either. marty: anybody who suggests they do is wrong. no one knows what is going to happen. there are indications enthusiasm is high on both sides. there is the weather factor that can upset everything. there is rain on the east coast. turnout.d dampen no one knows. tom: terry haines with us in washington. i was in washington the morning after an election. it was me and three police officers. what happens when say? terry: what happens is aside from people like you and i who

try to figure it out, two things happen. stunnede people who are and there are people who will tell you that the results is not here. withways, you will end up a lot of house races that are close and when you have the kind of polling we have now that suggests there might be majorities for one party in the get is the you will majority in the house hinging on those few races. there might be suspended animation. nothing like suspended animation. it is impossible to predict voter turnout. we have seen a turnout from early voting.

does that indicate one party preference or another? marty: it is impossible to know. the early voting numbers are staggering. there were more cast last week them there were the entire previous midterm. it does show voters are more in gauged in the political debate -- are more engaged in the political debate. that could be more technical. we will have to wait and see. aancine: what would democratic wave mean for president trump's reelection prospects? is it my first reaction that you are not going to be able to tell. if you get a split decision which is the base case, with a tiny democratic majority in the house and a strengthened

republican majority in the senate, it is hard to draw conclusions from that. least, continued support for his policies in the public and congress. the second thing i would say is this. what i'm going to look for is whether or not the college etiquette -- college-educated caucasians, the people that put trump in office continue to support trump or whether they abandon him. if they continue to support him and you get these split decision i suggest, the prospects are good going into 2020. if there is a large stem accredit wave that results -- large democratic wave that results in majorities in the house and senate, you get a situation where a lot of the base has abandoned him.

thecine: as we head into home stretch, what has been the messaging? are each of the parties on the same page? hasy: i would say there been narrative about how donald trump has failed to talk up the economy and markets against this narrative of immigration and that the democrats are benefiting from his focus on immigration rather than the economy. the democrats have focused on health care. it is the priority in the polls. that will have an impact on the house races. tom: i want to talk about one congressman to show some of the color, a former mayor of alaska, 3200 miles from washington. that would be don young.

age matters. dean of thewith the congress, with the elder statesman of america. electionmatter in this or is it a generational shift? terry: age does matter. what matters the most beyond age or generation is the to your district, the ability to run on what your values are nba fair representative of that. i would -- are and be a fair representative of that. people to think about this outside of the coasts. in the heartland, where democrats are going to do well, it is going to be with centrists

who look nothing like the progressive spirit it is going to be people connected to those districts. tom: you are the experts. is gender gap in polling back to 1958, a split that is extraordinary. is that a one-off about president trump? terry: assuming it is accurate, it would be. people not to buy those polls as indications. one reason i make the point i make about the college-educated polledis that that group consistently against trump and yet when you got to election day , college-educated white men were for trump i double digits -- by double digits. that is what put trump in

office. tom: we are going to have to leave it there. max mcgee caught that pass. vince lombardi knew that was coming. marty: he sure did. helping outchenker today with vince lombardi in the job economy. with francine in singapore. --sion name is on the of virginie maisonneuve with us today.

tom: good morning, everyone. francine lacqua in singapore. the new economy forum will start tomorrow. we're thrilled to have syed

mansoor mohi-uddin with us. maisonneuve with us and harm bandholz. and it is great you are from germany, what does the election mean and if we do get gridlock, what does it mean next year? think that the business cycle is bigger than the political cycle in terms of what the economy is doing. short-term, we can have reactions in the market but looking into 2019, what dominates headlines will be that the economy is heading into a slowdown. tom: i saw some of that in the european numbers in the returns

over the last month or so. when we look at the global slowdown, it is about an america that is trump lateral or unilateral. do you expect that to continue? we will getthink some form of bilateral basis. tot is important is understand how that framework is going to support the scenario of global resynchronization of eight growth slowdown and to what extent that slow down is manageable without going into too much of a slowdown. that is your central case scenario. i know you are an economist so you look at markets and economy. if we do have a change in the composition of the house or senate, what does that mean for

trade wars? harm: i do not think it has an impact. has power tomp withthrough trade measures executive orders and that is what president trump has been doing. forget that historically, the democratic party was more protectionist rather than republicans. the president was able to pull the republican party into the more protectionist area and there was not that much resistance. i do not think a democratic-controlled house would change the outlook for the trade tensions and president trump can do a lot on his own. francine: would it change anything fiscally? the tax cuts or infrastructure spending? virginie: definitely.

congress, a hybrid there will be a postponement in some areas. going back to trade, my view is the trade war that i call the clash of the titans is beyond, it goes beyond the trade discussion. it goes to global competitiveness, advancement in technology and it is about competitiveness over the next 15 to 20 years. you should keep that in mind. it is a trend that will continue. ?ill we get relief we are hoping that is the case. behind this is the structural adjustment that must take place, global rebalancing. francine: they both stay with us. toing up tomorrow, we speak

aliko dangote. we will talk to him about right finally's -- about refineries and oil. this is "bloomberg." ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. tom and francine from new york and singapore. we talked about china. let us go back. we had an interview with someone

from fidelity international, the head of asian fixed income. the currency is doing what it is supposed to, becoming a stabilizer in worsening trade tensions. let us get the view of harm bandholz and version the mezzanine of -- virginie massinneuve. seven? touch virginie: i think it might. if we have a short-term agreement, there is this counterbalancing mechanism. china does not want the currency to week. it does not want to get into currency manipulation. it needs flexibility. again, it is short-term, long-term, there are many other tools china can use including

tax rebates. is flexibility that she has that other countries do not. the currency is just one tool. francine: when you listen to president xi, he opened the forum and this is a shift from china to being an importer. how long will that take? harm: if we talk about the chinese currency, china has strengthened its currency. the overall current account surplus has shrunken. the currency is more reflecting market forces. i do not want to say there is no government effort to fine-tune it. donenk the currency has what it is supposed to.

on the political side, what china is doing, they are taking , trying toopening fill the gap that the u.s. is leaving by pulling back from supporting former allies. it is a great geopolitical opportunity that they are trying to take. tom: what is the gap in business confidence right now? unilateral policy, does that lead to share buybacks? harm: i do think share buybacks have benefited from trump politics. tom: at the expense of and investment? harm: i am not sure. if you look at the last several years, we had a lot of stock capex.s and not so much tom: harm bandholz and virginie

maisonneuve. with the, a discussion mastercard chief executive and president. what can i tell you? lots going on today. david westin at 12:00 where he will kick off midterm election coverage. looking forward to his coverage. he will be speaking with a congressman from rhode island. please stay with us. in singapore, in new york, this is "bloomberg." ♪

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"activecore, how's my network?" "all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. tom: bloomberg surveillance this monday. francine lacqua in singapore, starting tomorrow. they are great interviews from a different asia.

harm bandholz with us. he said we -- he would not come on the set and less talked statistics with kevin cirilli. he goes into the statistics of independence. if all races were independent which means set aside, said and theom one another gop chances were 50-50, republicans would have to do the equivalent of having a coin come up 24 times in 34. in 80.bability is one absolutely brilliant article. kevin cirilli here to translate. affect on thes independence of these races? look at hisu

schedule, he is going to ohio, missouri, and indiana. he could be a closer in suburban districts. arizona in ane to state where a democrat has been making that conservative race interesting. tom: he cannot be everywhere. the president closing argument is on immigration and he is not going the democrats feel he has had the adverse effect in mobilizing the tom: we talked about turnout. i want to talk about early voting. is it for real? with regards to early voting, it is beneficial to democrats they were able to mobilize under 35 voters in a state like georgia. the second point and there

something to be said here, this is part of a trend in terms of how americans are voting. easier to get your ballot in early as opposed to stand in a line. you might as well send it in early. tom: which side benefits from early voting? kevin: you would make the case the democrats would given the base argument. if you do the other case, it is a wash. tom: i want to go to florida. i agree that is the state where there is the most going on. let us go governor. he is trying to force a half-day closing argument. you saw this with president obama. the president is trying to frame him as someone who has been clouded in controversy. the democrats have pushed back and saying the tallahassee mayor

is under investigation. what about you? senator nelson is benefiting because you have someone who is a rising political star who has been mobilizing new folks. senator nelson is the incumbent democrat who could benefit from . ballot vote because of gillum francine: isn't it about the economy? do the democrats stand a chance? isin: conventional wisdom that folks do vote on the economy. you have a 3.7% unemployment rate. trade has played well in working-class states. if you look at what the president has said, he is not

talking about the economy. he has talked about a new tax plan but has not talked about the economy as much as republicans would have liked. he has put his political capital on immigration. kevin, we have a question from one of the viewers. please keep on coming. if the democrats take the house, will trump put a infrastructure plan together in will the democrats work with him? kevin: in terms of priorities for the new congress, there could be something like him for structure. when we talk about infrastructure, we should note technological infrastructure. that would be the only type of uniform policy prescription that could happen. it is too premature to suggest what type of policies might be prescribed.

what type of democrats are being elected? you have amy mcgrath. she says she would not vote for nancy pelosi. look at that in terms of what democrats have been doing and who they want to lead the party. group we arehe most uncertain if they will show up to vote? is it a certain group of americans? kevin: it is president trump's base. tom: really? kevin: here is why. they voted for president trump, not the party. tom: you are telling me somebody in a court trump district is not going to show up. kevin: they are more excited about the president. in're going to see a bump under 35 voting. you will see an increase in minority groups, in the cities.

there -- broadly map any way you want in the house -- congressional maps in the cities are a district. in the house is different than the map in the senate. you could have republicans make big gains in the senate and democrats make gains in the house. look deeper than that. is nancy pelosi going to have a good night? are democrats? all of thatives? chatter starts wednesday morning. the scope of know the democratic majority in the house until a week out. tom: you are expanding your franchise. you are trying to milk this. it -- whathat does

do these sanctions on iran mean for voters? i was surprised to see the picture of the president that looked like a hollywood movie on his instagram. kevin: the last time i saw that was on the campaign trail. in terms of it mattering, it does matter to the donor spots, it matters in a state like texas. it matters in the broader sense of folks who care about the relationship with the middle east and what israel has said and how the president has trended towards that. we will get an update this morning. mike pompeo going to release details of the jurisdictions of exempt frome

sanctions temporarily. francine: kevin, thank you so much. kevin cirilli, bloomberg news chief washington correspondent. let us get back to harm bandholz and virginie maisonneuve. when you look at sanctions against iran, it looks to have sanctions but you are not driving up the price of oil. virginie: there is part of that. if you look at the countries who are the biggest importer of oil from iran, you go back to china and india. that is interesting. is there posturing? i think there is. the long-term consequences depending where oil prices is is important. francine: what does this mean? the repercussion is on companies that no longer can do business with iran.

is it a small percentage? harm: it is tough to tell. it has been a hallmark of thatdent trump's politics he has been trying to square the circle and that is one of his biggest achievements that he has been able to almost do so. his actions are less dramatic. he is appealing to his base which like him to talk tough and the traditional republican voters who may not like the actions he wants. that has been a good achievement. iran is another example. there are sanctions and he tries to mitigate the impact by excluding customers. the other thing is the uncertainty that these politics are creating. we are talking this way and acting the other. i think in most of the actions

we have seen, the group of affected people, companies, sectors is limited. it becomes a problem if uncertainty is broadening the impact on to the economy. business sentiment in the u.s. has been holding up well. that is a risk that the uncertainty created by these politics is spilling over into the economy and that will have an impact on growth. francine: do you agree? i think it depends on the degree and the volatility. markets are getting numb to the volatility of trump tweets. thee is a threshold and surprise factor is what you have to look at, what is estimated and where does it hurt. francine: thank you both for

joining us. virginie maisonneuve and harm bandholz stay with us. tomorrow, we will be talking to darrell woods, exxon mobil chief executive. that is at 1:00 p.m. in london. ,e will be asking about iran refineries, and dollar dynamics. this is "bloomberg." ♪

tom: welcome worldwide. francine lacqua in singapore. beginningonomy forum

tomorrow. i'm in new york with elections. hearest taylor riggs. -- here is taylor riggs. party ishe democratic set to win a majority in the house of representatives tomorrow. a survey projects democrats to win 225 seats in the house, beyond the number it needs to regain control. republicans hope that president trump's campaigning will make a difference. the president has rallies today in ohio, indiana, and missouri. warren buffett is showing an appetite for equities. he put more money into stock purchases than he has in more than four years. buffett spent $928 billion on buying back his own stock. that is a move he has spurned. influential tech investor in russia is not

concerned about facebook and election meddling. bloombergr spoke to in california. challenges can be solved through a combination of human attention and artificial intelligence. they are always testing different products. confident this will be taken care of through technology. taylor: he was an early investor in facebook and twitter. global news 24 hours a day and at tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs. this is "bloomberg." thank you. just getting headlines from angela merkel who is briefing on

the coalition, the leadership of thecdu. she is insisting she can work well with any potential successor as the leader of her party. three maineeing is high-profile candidates for the job. there may be more. let us get back to harm bandholz and virginie maisonneuve. germany and the vacuum angela merkel could leave, how important is it that she can stay on as chancellor? her step tohink give up the chairwoman position of her party has increased her chances to stay on to the end of her term. lines,u read between the she probably would have had a good chance to get reelected at

the convention in december. the numbers would have been bad. over the last years, she got elected with around 90% of the votes. she would have stayed party chair with a vote of 60% or so. that would have showed how much her position would have weekend. i'mvoiding that, and saying trying to step down in a more gracious way, she avoided that distress. tuesday chancellor -- her chances to stay chancellor have gotten bigger. odds of theed the germany falls into this power vacuum. the cdu has to lead with a new people earlier than we thought before -- has to deal with a new leader earlier than we thought before. francine: can she serve out her term? harm: it has increased the

chances. we follow the election results and the parties that comprise the grand coalition have taken beating after beating. there was the disappointment in bavaria. there are headwinds. few parties who may benefit from an early election. because theogether social democrats are in worse shape than the cdu is. tom: that is my question. is this the death of these parties or do they resurrect themselves? harm: the cdu is in better shape. tom: you are more liberal. harm: the social democrats are more on the left side.

the social democrats have been suffering. the one thing is the reformthe n suffering. who did the right things for germany, all the social reforms. they were more supply-side reforms. there was stuff the cdu should have done and that alienated the vote. angela merkel moved her party to the left and took away votes from the spd. get harmave got to bandholz on set. what a global clinic. with us,maisonneuve harm bandholz of unicredit as well. we will continue. more to talk about. what i want to talk about is the dynamics of a nostalgia of america passed and the newness of singapore.

your gtv , there it is. steal a chart. dazzle harm bandholz. this is "bloomberg." ♪

tom: bloomberg surveillance. tom keene in new york. in singapore, to begin an economyt depot, the new forum. it was originally going to be in china and with the tensions, it has moved. what are the tensions in singapore? francine: we are going to focus on the southeast asian economies which are grappling with tensions on fronts. about outflows, a strengthening dollar, monetary policy, and this trade war between the u.s. and china. if you look at those, it is a lot and it becomes worse.

it could be the perfect storm for these. tom: looking forward to those good conversations. virginie maisonneuve of eastspring investments and harm bandholz. this is a chart from friday. asufacturing in america compared to population growth. all you need to know is slope matters, from world war ii. down we go. singapore'sas that fault? does plunging drop, do we blame the tigers of asia? i think you probably blame china more than the tigers. that was earlier. of key thing is to think onshore trends and productivity increase and the new world. although there will be cases for onshoring and we have seen it

linked to trade, if you look at the car industry, a lot of on shoring has taken place. sectors whichnew are less manufacturing intensive and more added value. we are seeing that grow in asia. singaporeking about being the city state of the future. i have been here a couple of thes but when i observe strategy the country has in terms of repositioning and fintech and leveraging and china making big inroads into ai, that is exciting. francine: how dependent are southeast asian economies on china? virginie: they are.

is the interesting intraregional dependency has been increasing and the extra- regional has decreased. they are in a better spot in terms of exposure to foreign debt, in terms of every financing. clearly, we need to see what the next six months come to. tom: thank you so much. we will continue the dialogue. there is more in the story across america. tomorrow, a vote. show me movies a grinch would love.

[ bark ] nu uh, i'm picking the movie tonight. [ whimpers ] be sad, i enjoy it. show me grinchy movies. oh, goody. [ whimpers ] mmm, fine! show me movies max would like. see the grinch in theaters

by saying... "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. [ laughing ] uh oh. something in my throat. >> president she -- xi lashes

back, mary kudlow says that anything has to be america's interest. plus, bracing for midterms, the most expensive midterm congress in history countdown to its final hours. talks tough onl iranian oil sanctions while preparing for waivers on certain buyers. volatility picks up. >> welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." a big week all over the place. treasury options, midterms, you think that market might be holding back a little bit. it's all about midterms for you. you will be on air tomorrow until midnight and then be back with us for the morning. it's going to be crazy. david: while television. [laughter] alix: here's where we are, s&p futures are