markets, i think some of the laggards will be the ones that really outperform. mutedne: did you see averageon whatthe dow jones inl heading up .7%. interesting ibm was the outperform today. the s&p 500 up, materials doing well. .> volume is light off 33% from the 20 day average. the nasdaq little bit less so. >> we see this late day rally. the stupidest thing we could do is try to read short-term moves into politics. do you do that? our markets anticipating something later? so. don't think

what we have seen, if you go back to the 1990's, you did have some situations where you got some polling data in the middle of the day. they would act on it. we have been so wrong lately. john kerry thought he was going to win at lunchtime on election day. even more recent, the exit polls have not been real good until you get a better feeling of the entire day. . think it is hard for people they've been burned too many times to make a big bet. now we can go to our recap of the markets. todaycourse two years ago was the presidential election. let's take a look at the

election day, the s&p 500, president trump tweeting winning streak. in march of 2017, $3.2 trillion in gains. really talking about the gains. in october another record high. in december politicizing the action of the markets. byething he was criticized some investors. the volatility this year. when good news is reported even the stock market goes down. later this year with record highs, talking about the run and also record highs in september of this year. we did have the volatility in october initially. somewhat bullish. and then a little bit more of a neutral stance. taking a pause. up s&p 500 over this time

28%. interesting to see what happens after the election. >> taking a look at oil prices, which have fallen and continue to fall. the interesting thing is this is inflation prices lower. over theee oil prices next 5-10 years moved in tandem. since the beginning of the month you have seen inflation expectations pick up even as oil prices declined. you start to ask why. remember the jobs data we got and how wages are increasing. it is not just wages. also the cost to employers to employ people. you can see both of these lines rising. is white line is, the yellow the cost of civilian workers. the yellow line is average hourly earnings. >> thanks.

i'm going to take a look at the energy stocks. i don't want to get to granule, there is a proposition today in colorado that would curb drilling in the state. that is weighing on some of the shares. wrigley cryeron -- wouldrilling site require any new drilling site to be away from vulnerable areas. this would shut down half of the drilling opportunities the state has. this is important because when you think about the basin, colorado is actually be fifth-largest oil producer in the united states. ,000 barrels in august. if there is some curb, companies are basically saying they may have to revise their outlook on others. and

proposition 112 something to keep an eye on as we get results tonight. >> thank you so much. still with us is matt and mike regan. to pick up on oil. a seven-month low. fears of a shortage fading. you say it has broken some key support levels. it is getting oversold. day moving average, you look at the chart, it is getting down to it oversold level that it has reached on several occasions when we have seen tradable balances. it is getting down to the same 2016 whenot in early we got that huge rally.

plus we are getting up, down to the trendline going back to those probably 16 lows. just around $60. that should provide support. at least in the northeast. it has not been a mild fall. issues, wee of these had the news on the iraq sanctions when they took place. reinstated. mentioned, how we saw the employment data, the economic numbers have been strong. caroline: how much has this been capturing people's attention? >> there has been talk about it. exaggerate onto the downside and the upside. the columnist was talking about it. this is what happens with oil.

matt knows the charts. my mind is on the midterms. i can't help it. i remember in 2016 we saw a lot of volatility in the trading that night. are the people you're talking to going to be up all night watching how the markets react? >> well, i was up until 4:00 in the morning in 2016. not that long this time. people who took advantage of it overnight did very well. it overshot to the downside. to be honest i do think if we get the democrats in both houses, i don't know i would want to be a big buyer. that we areoint is going to have to wait and see what happens.

the more important one, the election, i don't know how much is going to change. i don't think there will be as much trading going on. >> what makes you say that, if the dems win, that would be bad? i know that is the view people have. what is the concern? >> for me, the biggest thing is first president becomes, comes into office. there are these new economic proposals. what they always do is back end load everything. the economy is really kicking the third and fourth year of the administration so they can get reelected. donald trump did the opposite. this time around we are going to need something new to kick the economy back into gear in the

third and fourth year. if we have both houses of congress in the m kratz hands, it will be harder. it willemocrats' hands, be harder. i am more concerned about 2019. caroline: how does that break down when you look at domestic companies versus international companies? it is interesting when donald trump came into power we saw an outperformance of domestic companies in terms of the s&p 500. where do you think this goes in terms of the global story? i think it is going to depend on what happens with the trade issue. my concern is it will go longer. donald trump sent a few tweets to help the stock market before the election. it seems like he is determined to push this along longer than

most people realized. and the chinese can withstand a war or a battle for longer than a lot of people are thinking about. they can withstand it economically. they don't have to worry about the political aspect. , the earnings season has been fabulous. the guidance has been concerning. talk aboutrt to cutting back or pulling back on capital expenditures, it is going to hurt those names. >> matt, thank you so much. bloomberg markets editor. that does it for the closing bell. is next.ou miss?" why the house races in florida could be crucial. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: live from new york, i am caroline hyde. how thea snapshot of u.s. stocks close today. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" voters are casting their ballots in midterm elections that will impact policies and markets. italy braces for a confidence vote to curb immigration and corruption. a private credit boost. how business developing companies are feeding into the appetite for private lending.

it is election day in america. democrats hoping to be in the majority after tonight. some of the most vulnerable held seats they are hoping to split are in south florida. we are on the ground to their reporting. talk us through how it feels like on the ground at the moment. .> it has been slow here they are expecting the flow to pick up in the afternoon when people get off work. i've actually been surprised by how supportive people are of president trump and his policies. if you voters have expressed frustration with his insults. there is broad acceptance of the president for who he presents himself as and how he has handled the economy. joe: the types of seats democrats hope to get tonight in florida, how are they characterized?

what is the breakdown of the vulnerable seats? >> florida is a diverse state. about the miami area, we have three house seats that are a calibration of what we can expect for the rest of the country. you have carlos, which democrats hope to take. he's been facing a strong challenge. you have another seat. democrats are expecting to take that one. take the seatsn of mario, that will be a very good night for democrats. what are you hearing about the governor's race? any change in sentiment? both candidates have made their final arguments. they were making them last night. republican in the

mold of donald trump, very much thatng out that strategy was successful for trump. you have andrew gilum presenting his progressive proposals. is going to bet a signal to democrats they have room on the left to move toward a progressive platform. florida very important state in the midterms and also one strategist will be looking at to plan your strategy for 2020. edgerton in is anna miami. joining us now is william galston, a senior fellow at brookings. he is in washington. i want to start with this idea the midterms are a referendum on the president. we know that to be the case more than ever with donald trump. when you look at the most

representative of the divide we have in this nation with regards to donald trump? >> ha. it is hard to pick because the entire election reflects that divide. certainly if you look at the governor's race in florida, you democratgressive running against a republican who rapped himself in donald trump. that result will be important. joe: one of the questions that has risen, people are wondering about the degree to which republicans would get behind trump. in many cases politicians on the inht have wrapped themselves the trump mental. if republicans suffer a setback, ,ould you expect that to crack

there to be more misgivings about candidates willing to represent the trump wing? >> not if the republicans hold the senate. if they were to lose the senate, it would be a shock to the party and it would make many of them the total embrace of donald trump that has pervaded the republican party. caroline: what it make donald trump reevaluate domestic policies and external ones that affected the global audience? i think mr. trump is very set in his ways and will have a hard time adjusting. there may be some tactical adjustments. he is who he is. he's been that way throughout his life. romaine a lot of focus has been

on florida and texas. what about the midwest? iowa, ohio. how are those playing? >> i am watching those states carefully because almost all of the governorships in the midwest are up this year. do verys are going to well in pennsylvania. they will hold that governorship. ofy have a better chance winning most of the others. that would introduce a big question into the assumption had turned themp midwest into republican territory. standpoint,policy where do you expect to see the most movement? int will you be looking for the next couple of years? house,emocrats take the

that will mean president trump can't take any additional policy steps without cooperating with democrats. it is anybody's guess whether democrats will be in a mood to cooperate with him. , thanke: william galston you. coming up, tensions in italy's coalition. the view from rome next. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: a check of the they want to make sure they can keep its financial services in the european union. they have agreed to buy another

operation in germany and the u.s. the terms of the deal were not disclosed. bloomberg has learned investors are seeking to withdraw 1/5 of the pool. restructuring talks could result in a sale of the fund. another brexit blow to the city of london. they are moving their market to short-term financing out of london. they can to guarantee continue to use it if there is a no deal brexit. your brexit headlines there. moving to amsterdam. even though we see more optimism in the market. joe: this is a reminder no

matter the political opinions about mobilization, we have a financial system that is global in nature. it is a risk. if they don't get a deal or if it is stymied, why take the risk? isoline: when the market building on the pound and we might get a deal, the headline of the impact of brexit is getting faster. we have more and more banks wanting to hedge themselves. romaine: it will be interesting. caroline: clock ticking. now for a bloomberg exclusive. united had a remarkable turnaround. him tohatzker spoke to discuss what his focus is. effort.at team we built a good team at the leadership level.

the next arena for us is to on our customer experience. we want you to feel good about flying united. we have many initiatives. it is all about you, the customer. >> where does technology fit into that? >> it is critical. the digital advantage we are providing. we are building some of the best technology. the purpose is innovation, something relevant to the customer. everyone talks about five years from now. i prefer to have something that is innovative today. >> a lot of it is tough people don't see. like gemini. your revenue management system. record low factors. your kicking fewer people off of flights. that improves the customer experience. is there anything else in the

pipeline that could have an impact on your performance? >> there is. gemini is a lot of intelligence. some of the technology relevant to the customer is simple things, flight attendants, taking care of you in the moment. that has beencess rolled out that is doing well. we are on tethering our technology, our maintenance from the normal desk. the culmination of that is making life efficient and productive on the employee site. progress made a lot of and have raised your guidance for 2018 three times. the stock is up 33%. analysts keep pestering you to give them widens.

whether we should be talking about raising the 2020 target? >> you keep thinking that. [laughter] it is a marketplace that is very competitive. we want to make sure we have a very comfort level of where we are. to this day, nothing has changed. we still see business in a very strong way. thingshere a possibility are improving at a fast enough bucks is 11-13 conservative? >> are guidance is where we think it should be. coming up, we will be looking at the growing yield and risk in the world of private credit. all eyes on washington on this midterm election eve.

from new york and washington, this is bloomberg. ♪

mark crumpton. u.s. voters deciding whether republicans keep control of congress. the vote takes place amid concern that social media misinformation, access restrictions in several states, and the threat of election system hacking might sway the results. officials say they have seen no evidence voting systems have been compromised by hacking in the election. officials say the command center in virginia is staying on the lookout for any problems. technicalbeen some glitches reported across the country as voters waited in long

lines and rainy and windy conditions. russia's foreign minister says he hopes the outcome of the midterms will ease domestic tensions in the u.s. and enable washington to focus on global issues. at a joint press conference, he said russia-u.s. ties have become hostage to internal squabbles in america. he is hopeful the election will stabilize domestic politics in the u.s. so that washington can concentrate on positive steps on the international arena. he also reiterated moscow's position it is not meddling in u.s. elections. the trump administration says it is consulting with congress about additional sanctions over former spy.g of a the state department says russia has failed to meet the deadline to comply with u.s. law on preventing the use of chemical

weapons. the u.s. and its allies have accused the russian government of the attack. the british prime minister theresa may said she would not at any cost.al the prime minister briefed her cabinet. raiseds chief negotiator the issue today during a trip to slovakia. >> we need a backstop for integrity protect the of the market, which is a common goal for everybody. including slovakia.

mark: he added the negotiating teams are not yet close to an agreement. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. europe,: sticking with italy faces a vote of confidence tomorrow. the coalition hopes to force senators into voting for a bill restrict in the rights of asylum-seekers. let's go to rome. break it down. why are these five-star holdouts against this asylum bill? it is an unlikely marriage

between five star. they have different bases and outlooks. hascrackdown on migration star isriority and five the fight against political corruption. there are several senators who are against the limits on asylum-seekers. joe: what does it accomplish for the government? >> it is a way to limit the influence of the dissidents. if you vote against the government in a confidence vote, you face possible expulsion from the party. it is a way of ensuring they will have a stronger majority and get the measure through. romaine: how much is corruption playing into this? >> the atmosphere, there are

several happenings. there is a clash between the league and five-star on the measures in the budget for next year. we've got several issues coming up, asylum-seekers, corruption, .ension reform, other measures all of which are fueling tensions between the allies. we have seen italian bonds rise on the back of this. how much of a concern is this for the survival of the government? >> there is a majority in the lower house. in the senate there is a 40 strong majority. expectations will be approved. the greater concern is what is going to happen over the budget with the european commission and what market reaction will be. joe: thanks for breaking it

down. by credit industry is rising development companies. they appeal to investors paying out more than 10% yields on average. world, much money in the credit standards are slipping. let's bring in david schawel. thank you for joining us. what is your take on the state of credit? we talk about rates, in your view, our standards still strong? i would not say there are cracks, but there's been a flood of capital into the system. there's a lot of come petition over these deals. credit standards are loosening. terms are loosening. they are willing to accept a lower and lower returns for these deals. as people think about

the potential risks, how easy or hard is it to measure the credit risk when you have these organizations outside the realm of reporting? >> it is difficult. that is a difference tween the leverage loan market or the high-yield market. where the underlying credits are not as transparent, there is a lesser history of growing -- going through credit cycles. they have not gone through credit cycles. we don't know how they manage risk. that is a concern about deploying capital. atoline: when you look lending hub, we can offer loans to a certain extent. how much is this tract as a risk to the economy? shadow banking is prevalent in china.

the u.s. as well. >> i do not think it is systemic in the market. i think it is systematic of late cycle behavior. in terms of the individual, they are looking at the dividend. as we know, the more important thing is total return. if the dividend is 10% and you're losing 15%, because of charge-offs, that is not a great deal. the segment i am not investing in right now, i don't feel like there is transparency. i feel like some of the newer ones have not performed well. multiples are not that attractive right now. joe: are there other areas of credit you like? >> credit is in decent shape. a lot of the tailwinds have been the technicals in the market. there's been low supply.

that has been a tailwind for the market. corporate earnings. high-yield issuers. that said, all of these things are baked in. i don't think you're getting paid to take on these risks right now. i would lean at the upper end of the spectrum. joe: i am curious about the ortroversy with high-yield junk etf's. appropriate is anan vehicle. people think there is this andatch between liquidity that would create systemic issues for these vehicles. where do you come down on that and think about some of these etf's within your trading? etf's, theyics of

are in business to arbitrage. , they etf is low enough will arbitrage it. there is a natural mechanism to market priceen the and asset value. for investors, i do not think high-yield etf's are the preferred play. active management and selective choosing of credits is a better choice in that segment. itoline: we saw a hint of came to the market. they could find the investors themselves. is that something we will see more and more of? or is it a one-off occasion because uber has brand strength? >> it is more to do with the risk climate. when it is good and the weather is nice and it is sunny, liquidity is less of an issue. investors are willing to come

out of the woodwork for lower premiums. when there is risk off, investors are looking for liquid markets, transparency. those opportunities will close. one of the defining aspects of this selloff we saw in october was the concentrated areason in tech and other getting clobbered. there is an opportunity in those areas? or is there heavy exposure among investors that will prevent them from gaining steam? to some extent one of the things that is popular is trend following. a lot of strategies are based on trend following. that is a way of managing risk. the 200 dayreaks

moving average, they will sell. there's been some technical damage to these names. they arepeople think long-term investors. they say that as long as the names are going up. with some losses, you think about amazon, others, 20% down. i think it is going to become difficult. beennk the luster has lost. not because they've gone down. so much good was baked in for so long. takinge: david schawel us through the brand names. let's have a look at some breaking news. we have earnings coming out. you've got to think about the market reaction. in line withme out adjusted shares of $.39, beating expectations.

i'm afraid the fourth-quarter forecast did not look so pretty. the estimate was for above that. i mean, earnings, overall they are saying 2018 is near the top end of the outlook. they seem to be clobbered. joe: it goes to what david was saying. how much good news? this seems like a good report. at some point people get so optimistic. romaine: we are seeing a lot of expectations being ratcheted down. zillow is out. this is the home listing company. they actually moved into mortgage lending and buying and selling homes, flipping them. their revenue is going to come $357 million. that is below the average estimate. similar ratcheting down on their adjusted. they are going to pull in $28

million for the fourth quarter. the average estimate was $74 million. i don't know if that is a mismatch between the expectation. if that is a true comparison, that is a big guidance. joe: brutal after hours. inoline: you cannot fail this market, even in this outlook. why oil watchers should shift from iran to texas. this is bloomberg. ♪

for ae: crude oil down seventh straight day. about 20% off the year. most of the attention has been on the supply issues and the bottlenecks in the u.s.

the next guest says some of it has to do with demand. columnist.pinion you say a lot of this has to do with the demand issues out of the u.s. >> >>that is right. everyone is focused on iran. a story that is missed is demand in the u.s. is still the biggest single demand for oil on the planet, is not looking so hot. last week the department of energy put out their supply you break down the headline numbers, you find gasoline demand went up during the crash. it is now flat to down. the soul is holding up. is holding up. joe: what is the story in texas? why is texas off the charts? >> i've got a few theories.

texas has been roaring as an economy. it was number six in the country . a couple of other things, the fracking boom which uses a lot are burning oil to make oil. yourasically take out pumping equipment and you pump the sand and water down. on the gasoline front, one of the things happening in texas is a housing boom. accounting for a large share of housing permits the past couple of beers. a lot ofelates with driving, gasoline use. out, theok texas national picture would be a sharp decline in gasoline demand and also diesel demand is not

looking great. caroline: how much are we seeing taking the view the u.s. will reduce its gasoline intake and move toward a more carbon neutral economy? more electric vehicles. in general that is excepted in the market. people were surprised at how oil demand came back in the u.s. ist we have seen this year that was a function of price. as we've seen gasoline prices head toward three dollars even recently,let-up demand has responded quickly. liam, thank you. let's get a check of the latest headlines for you now. spain's largest banks are

escaping aliens of your us in back taxes. the supreme court's face they should not be liable. shares jumped in new york after the decision. shares of microdevices are rising. competitorsest says amazon is a new partner. they are offering three of its most popular products based on amg processors. midterm elections impacting more than just the u.s. what asia can expect. this is bloomberg. ♪

now to asia. the outcome of the midterms will impact more than just the u.s. means, are what it

we going to have people on asia logging into start tabulating the results? >> a little bit later. not as much as the u.s. down to what happens. right now investors in asia are thinking let's not overemphasize what happens. it is more about the broader picture. china's economy, trade, so you see standard chartered saying a divided congress could benefit the yuan. people in asia are not sure a divided congress would hold back president trump's policies. romaine: looking at this election, trade, how much of an impact will it have on the relationship and trade discussions? >> it determines how much can be done through executive power and

what has to go through congress. we have seen tariffs. if the democrats take control of the house or if republicans control the house by a couple of agendathe president's will grind to a halt. right now the house is very divided. democrats or a tiny republican majority, you can almost forget about any legislation. i would say i think the president will try to use his executive powers even more and policy as a way to accomplish something. caroline: he might shift his focus to foreign policy. caroline:and become even more hawkish? >> that depends on his

relationships with the leaders. on china he is not backing down at all. , we are starting to see where he is going to come down on that relationship as an ally or if he is giving up any hope of working together with russia. there are no high expectations in terms of china. there has been a shift with president trump and also in congress. washington focusing on china. that speech by vice president pence seems to be the turning point where he emphasize the threat to national american interests. really people in asia are not fooling themselves that it would be a drastic change when it comes to the trump administration dealing with china. the only thing asian countries do not want is having to pick between china or the u.s. joe: random question, did trump

vote today? >> by absentee a couple of weeks ago. i have that information in my brain. caroline: getting plenty more analysis as time goes on. you. australia""daybreak and "daybreak asia." joe: after the bell, square reports its earnings. election coverage starting tonight. several of our colleagues will be bringing you the results and what it means for the markets and all that stuff. caroline: i get the night off. that is all for "what'd you miss?" joe: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ anchor: i'm emily chang in san francisco. this is bloomberg technology. coming up, amazon's potential hq 2 and hq3. plus, irix was of conversation our mastercard ceo -- plus, exclusive conversation with the mastercard ceo. and