heidi: a very good morning. i met the new economy forum in singapore. >> good evening from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. "daybreak: asia." >> our top stories this wednesday -- polls start to close across america. vote.ns enjoyednd facebook

record political ad spending. the bill could top $9 billion. wall street and main street away the outcome. democrats are set to regain the house. republicans fight for the senate. let's get a quick check of how now.ts are faring right we saw u.s. markets close after a very muted session. thin volume, cautious day of trading. 18saw the dow trading percent below average. u.s. stocks did manage to rise, though. materials gaining ground while the nasdaq also gained .6%, but we saw that in the afternoon session. witho do, of course, midterm elections and what could happen out of the polls closing this evening. we already saw the first polls close in the election in indiana

and kentucky. all of this will be felt in asia as well. >> looks like a quiet start to wednesday trade. we have a little bit of an upside coming through in new zealand, but we are plating the waiting game -- playing the .aiting game in asia the broad view is that trump will not rein in his hawkish stance on china. with beijing remaining in the we do have you on , and with that trade dispute on boeing, citigroup's ceo for asia said corporate clients in the region are adjusting supply chains on the expectation these kinds of risks will happen again in the future. the ceo of asia's biggest bank is taking a dramatic with that e dispute on boeing, citigroup's ceo for asia said approach

saying trade fears are looking somewhat overblown, especially because it is very difficult to shift supply chains. we do have the dollar under pressure. the yen trading euro one-month low against the greenback and the aussie dollar losing ground against its peers, also being weighed my lower commodity prices. we did see an uptick as new zealand saw the jobless rate fall to a 10-year low in the third quarter, therefore boosting expectations for faster rbzation ahead of the policy rate decision thursday. we are seeing some pressure come through before this contract as we wait on the outcome of the u.s. midterms. >> thank you. let's first word news with jessica summers. >> long lines and voting glitches are some of the takeaways from the midterm election. the poll comes after a divisive and expensive campaign many see

as a referendum of president trump, and turnout is reported to be higher than normal. problems include rundown voting machines. at least 40 states use computerized equipment more than a decade old and no longer being manufactured. italy's populist government has onled a vote of confidence wednesday as tensions rise between allied parties. the anti-immigration league wants curbs on the rights of asylum-seekers, but members of the antiestablishment five-star are against the idea. with is already wrestling the eu over its rule breaking spending plan. theresa may is set to ask her cabinet to approve her deal in the coming days if she can persuade eurosceptic members of her team. a ministerial meeting broke up tuesday after just two hours with no agreement. the chance of wrapping up a deal soon seems to be fading.

one brexit official says it will thisugh to reach an accord month. and the leading judge in brazil's car wash corruption investigation says he agreed to expandice minister to the fight against organized crime. towill introduce legislation reduce what he calls brazil's culture of them. he. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 100 20 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. >> thank you. the first polls in the u.s. midterm elections are closing and the balance of power is at stake. let's get the latest from lumber 's chief washington correspondent and our reporter in miami.

let's start with you. we are seeing the first polls closing in indiana. will go. >> yes, here we go. it's going to be a long night. it could be a long night. >> you might not know the scope majority inratic the house of representatives. polls are beginning to close on the east coast in kentucky as well as indiana, but not necessarily in the west coast. 70 tof these races, some 75 of these 435 races are talked about. we do not know how they will be looking. looking in kentucky to see if democrats are getting the vote out and turnout is up because district.verbal if you start to see democrats getting to the polls and starting to get there early, that could be a good sign for democrats. the senate is a much different picture. we have 35 races in total, and

it's very advantageous for president trump because there are nine seats up for reelection that the president won and 26 in the lastts won cycle, so it is a very difficult to in order for democrats take back control of the senate and look for public is to extend their lead in the senate but not so much in the house of representatives. >> we talking about tossups. florida always seems to be of this state that is central to u.s. elections. tell us why you are there and which races you are watching. interestings an state because there are so many florida andrts of different demographic trends. there are three really interesting house races. republican, his volunteers are behind me calling

voters up until the last second because they know in a district like this, the vote could come down to just a few hundred. >> of course it is all about tonight, what happens maybe tomorrow and the next few days. what should we be watching for as we keep our eye on all of these races? >> if democrats win, they will go after impeachment or infrastructure. divided government is a major trump's economic agenda . streak interesting terms of populism of the left and right in the u.s. politics. what i will really be watching for is pay attention to what types of democrats win tonight. the democrats who win tonight, are the top of democrats who nancy pelosi,st poised to become speaker of the house if democrats are able to take back control of the house, but some have said they need a

new type of democrat to be in charge. are they centrist, liberal, and what does that mean in terms of how willing they are to negotiate with this administration because that has policy implications on energy, infrastructure, cybersecurity, and foreign policy. >> we have seen so much enthusiasm in the selection, not something we have seen in past midterms. you have been speaking to voters on the streets. ? at is on their minds >> it has been interesting to talk to voters at the polls because it really is split. half the voters have spoken with really like president trump in the job he has been doing. on the other side, there are voters that do not like president trump and have voted the straight democratic ticket as a result. they're the ones who say they do not like his tone. they do not like the stability, soor they have been voting for democrats. kevin made a point about the kind of democrat that wins tonight. in the house district am

watching, we have moderate democrats challenging incumbent republicans, but the governments -- the governor's race is really interesting because andrew gillum, the mayor of tallahassee, has a really progressive platform. could see, democrats they have more room on their left to move to a more progressive stance. >> let's now bring in could see they have more room on their pimco's head of public policy. what an exciting night. it could be a long one. tell us what is your best case scenario right now? >> i think given where the are pimco, folks who have been doing this and long time with reasonable success, odds are high that democrats take back the house and republicans keep and potentially their majority in the senate. i don't think we have any reason to disagree with that outlook.

, im a market's perspective think the big question will be how big a majority it is in the house in terms of democrats. that will likely inform who the speaker is and potentially impeachment risks. >> will there be policy implications if you get a split congress, which seems to be not only your best case scenario, but a lot of analysts think that will be the case? it could remove one of those uncertainties that has been looming over markets. >> there might be a relief rally for that very reason. infrastructure, investigation, and impeachment -- those are the things i think will dominate headlines over the next 20 months or so, so we really get into 2020 campaigning. in terms of infrastructure, the view is that under a divided congress, that prospects for an infrastructure bill are low.

i think we are probably a little more positive, a little more optimistic. i've been talking to democrats on the hill and they really want to show they can govern. -- can they find some sort of coalition and of republican senate who will work with them, and is president trump on board? if president trump gets on board with an infrastructure built in the house, i think you could see it passed the senate. the upside risk is higher than what most investors and. we know democrats will have subpoena authority. they will be able to bring folks in the administration, plymouth front of a congressional committee, television cameras and investigate things big and small. i think impeachment risk probably goes up. these investigations go to on senate and are dead

arrival, do they matter for markets? >> i do not think they necessarily matter for markets, and impeachment is the same way. on arrival, do they matter for markets? no president in the history of the republic has been impeached and convicted, so you are right -- even impeachment could maybe not matter for the markets, but i would argue that in terms of a backdrop for risk appetite, for animal spirits, you have impeachment hearings, the administration being investigated. i do not think we can overstate that we have folks on both the democratic and republican side thesestracting investigations can be, and i think in those cases, those white houses are very much prepared for that. i don't know if you can say the same about the trump administration. fire already has people in place across agencies, across departments -- president trump already has people in place. what are some factors that will stay the same?

we hear some people say financials should not be affected. we know the president wants looser regulations. >> is exactly right. some of the things that have been driving markets -- the tax optimism about deregulation or lack of new regulation -- those things will stay intact. similarly, trade policy risk, foreign policy risk optimism abt deregulation or lack of new regulation -- those -- those things the executive branch has wide latitude over and we at pimco do not see trade especially changing regardless of what the outcome is tonight, because, as we talked about, democrats are strange bedfellows. they probably share more of the as president trump does relative to republicans. the risks that have been looming large as well as monetary policy, a lot will stay the same. i think the fiscal is the big question here, and i heard some

previous folks talking about their own fiscal analysis on the program. i would agree with the idea that we would see more fiscal stimulus if we sought the democratic sweep. a democratic sweep. >> what do you mean by that? >> i think a big infrastructure bill has a much higher pass if democrats controlled both chambers because that is something we know the president wants to get done. we know it is a priority for democrats. president trump does not really care about the deficit. if there is a split government, the chances go down a lot, and if there is pass if democrats controlled a republican congress, i don't think we see fiscal stimulus. >> let's say we get more fiscal theulus, yields rise, strengthening dollar. >> especially if it is a democratic sweep. >> i want to get to trade. sticking -- you are

with us. much more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back. still with us is pimco's head of public policy. we have to get to trade and what happens after midterms. china,s when it comes to it does not matter if it's democrats or republicans -- there seems to be consensus there is this unity against china. think that's exactly right, and honestly, it has been brewing for more than a decade. what's most interesting in my conversations with folks behind closed doors is when democrats say they may not totally agree with the tactics in terms of what president trump is pursuing, but for the most part, they do agree with trying to rectify the economic relationship with china. i would underscore this is bigger than trade. it has to do with global technicalnd

superiority. i think there is a lot of bipartisan consensus, especially support among democrats. evennot think this changes if democrats were to control both chambers. i think there is a lot of support with president trump to rectify the relationship with china and pretty wide latitude to use whatever tactics he thinks is appropriate. >> so far, president trump has when itlly hard constitutes tariffs. there's a chart on the bloomberg showing the yellow line where we , where we have seen tariffs. also, the red line would be the potential additional tariffs on chinese goods. if democrats takeif democrats te and we have the senate being run

with the majority by the gop, could we's he a change in tactic? people have been concerned about the blanket tariffs on chinese goods, not just china but also american allies, on steel and aluminum for example. >> it is interesting because i do think it is important to parse out the trade issues. 2.0, thethe nafta steel and aluminum tariffs. that is one group of trade issues. china, though, is completely separate. again, i think there is much more bipartisan support to go hard on china than on those other trade issues. there's very little support about putting tariffs on our allies. again, this much more support ongoing hard on china. i do not think the approach the administration is pursuing really is dependent on what happens tonight. >> how closely should be -- should we be watching the g20 meeting in what is harris -- buenos aires? >> look, i mean, personally, i'm

pretty skeptical that we see a grand bargain coming out of the g20 meeting. maybe, just maybe, we see a framework for a future deal, but i would remind folks that what the administration is asking from china is more than buying airplanes.beans and it's about structural concessions to the industrial policy china is pursuing. these concessions -- we think probably more pain is going to be involved on both sides for the parties to come to the table and make a meaningful deal. >> i think that's clearly laid windy vice president pence he spoke in october and we heard him talk about intellectual property theft. if those are the issues, doesn't that mean this will continue to drag on the? >> exactly, and i think that's an important point. for someone at that level of the administration to give that kind of speech -- you are referring

to the speech he gave at the hudson initiative -- that was so wide ranging. again, it shows you that these issues expand beyond trade and beyond the economy. they have to do with national security and technological superiority. they are really core fundamental issues for the united states, and i do think this gets worse before it gets better. i think this does escalate for that very reason because what we chinese -- they are big concessions we are asking for and we do not think the chinese are going to give that up. >> you talk about nafta 2.0 or usmca. we have seen them sign the agreement. with pena nieto, but that still has to pass through congress. if we see a split congress, is it more of the status quo and more uncertainty for businesses?

ani do think this is important point, something markets have caught wind of. just because the agreement has been signed by leaders does not mean it has been ratified or passed by this new legislature. i think canada and mexico are more optimistic, but the united states, as you point out, assuming we do have a split congress, democrats are going to want to put their own interest on nafta 2.0. it's hard to believe they will just swallowing agreement that was negotiated by the trump administration with these countries. specifically, they will want to provisions and environmental provisions. the sierra club, interestingly, just came out against the trade agreement and i think that is telling, a signal to democrats that they must insist on more environmental provisions. notrisk of nafta 2.0

getting ratified is high, and as a result, withdrawal possibilities are also high. over withe are election night and we head into the third year of president tenure, what happens in 2020? to think about getting past election night. the fading fiscal stimulus. talked something we have about before, but of course, we saw a big surge in fiscal policy and 2013 because of the tax bill that increased government spending levels, but by the end of 2019, we will see not only the benefits of the tax cut fading, but also the benefits of the spending increase saving, so you have a situation where fading fiscal stimulus, assuming

you have trade tensions escalating, and potentially a mistake, so i think we are looking at more risks in the market and coming from washington certainly in 2019 and how thein 2018 president responds will be interesting. >> we will have you here to discuss all of that again maybe. of course, you can also turn to more election for results and commentary analysis as well. keep it here for special election night coverage. bloomberg bringing you complete election results and market analysis. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are counting down to the opens in japan and south korea.

in japan we are looking at futures under pressure after gaining ground in the last session. we see the japanese yen a little weak, about 113 level. plenty more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

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bloomberg new economy forum here in singapore. this is "daybreak: asia." let's get you to first word news with jessica summers. jessica: some winners have emerged even before vote counting begins. google and facebook seen reaping a windfall from political advertising, on course for a record exceeding the 2016 election year. the total may be $9 billion. the u.s. government forecast the biggest yearly rise in investment oil production.

the projection comes after the u.s. surpassed russia as the world's leading oil producer in august. the agency sees u.s. output topping 12 million barrels a day in 2019. uncertainty over the split has left the city of london reeling from a new blow. cme group moving its european market for short-term finance .ut of london the decision was taken before cme took over the $240 billion a day business last week. it is the first example of a major financial market leaving the u.k. of relatives of the victims last week's lion air crash in indonesia have visited the area where the plane came down. everyone on board the boeing 737

max were killed. it's not known what caused the disaster, but the plane has suffered malfunctions on its three previous flights. it is indonesia's worst airline disaster since 1997. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. >> thank you. the first polls in congressional elections have closed, but america is facing a long night ahead. our chief washington correspondent joins us with the latest on the democratic party. you, and welcome to the democratic chairman. polls are beginning to close.

in the early polls and exit polls you are watching, what are you hearing? >> health care is the number one issue and people are concerned about losing coverage because of pre-existing conditions. that is what we fought for and that is what republicans are fighting against. clearly.at very i am heartened by the number of first-time midterm voters and by the fact that so many communities of colors have come out. we spent a lot of time, not just at the dnc, but the broader ecosystem in the democratic time spend a lot of reaching out making sure everybody voted. we wanted to expand the electorate, and when you look at the early numbers, they are showing that. another thing is that more women are voting, and i think that candidatesemocratic because women, by a double-digit margin, favor democrats in this election. incase in point, amy mcgrath kentucky. polls just closing their as she

looks to upset the republican incumbent. talk to me about the importance of early voting and you and your team's focus on that. >> early voting has been very important. historically in florida, republicans had a pretty sizable lead in early voting. that was their strategy, and we had to play catch up on election day. we invested heavily -- and again, we is everybody in the democratic ecosystem. we invested heavily in early voting and were able to close the gap so it was a virtual draw in early voting. now with the excitement around andrew gillum, we think we will have a real spike and african-american turnout. early voting showed that and today is showing that as well. latinos as well, and young people are coming out. in nevada, again, the strategy we democrats is to make sure are working early voting in clark county, which is las

vegas, where 70% of the voters reside, and we were able to bank a pretty sizable advantage from the early vote and we see it in the early information we got, showing that again, the lead in clark county has widened, so i am heartened by those data points. >> in particular, the suburban .ote was also something talk to me about virginia 10, tarver comstock, the republican incumbent. how important is it to convince these types of independent suburbs, quite frankly, respect for the democratic party, to win them back after the last presidential election cycle? >> virginia 10th is one of the many examples where suburban voters, especially suburban women, are saying donald trump, you are fighting against health,

fighting against women's rights more generally, you continually engage in conduct unbecoming a president, i'm not voting for ,ou, so you see it borne out and the colts are still open, so i hope if anybody is watching this, they are still getting out .here to vote in virginia philadelphia, another example where we have some remarkable candidates. the congressional delegation in pennsylvania has no women because it is overwhelmingly republican, and we have an opportunity with a remarkable group of female candidates talking about things reflected in the exit polling because we listen to voters and we are responding. i feel heartened, and i feel confident that those voters you are referring to our the types of voters and the types of candidates that will enable us

the house, and i the race you will reflect on, truly the year of the women. >> the first time the state went for a republican since 1980 a, but obviously impacted by national events within the last couple of weeks in the u.s. as you know, that horrific shooting outside of pittsburgh, really impacting the rhetoric outside this race. i want to play a clip from my interview earlier today with the chairwoman of the rnc about what she said in terms of setting expectations for the scope of what is likely to be a democratic win tonight for the house of representatives. take a listen. >> the typical loss of a first-term president is 30 seats in the house and two or three in

the senate. that is just the average. that has been since the 1920's that that is what happens in the senate and house, so i think the president keeping majorities, even by slim margins, is a win tonight. i really do because we know that that first midterm, you usually lose seats. >> 23 is the magic number, the number of seats democrats seeks to win in the house. your response? >> it was nice in, and i understand why she is doing oft, but here's the reality what is going on. people with pre-existing conditions are republicans, democrats, and independents. they are people of all races and ethnic cities, and republicans are fighting to make their health care coverage more difficult. election,about this as a result of the fact that we are fighting for issues people care about. if you look at the field where we are election,

as a 50-state party again. competing -- we have him, ronoward dean and before brown, back in the early 1990's, and that is what we have to do. that is what we are doing. at places like south dakota and kansas and iowa, oklahoma. we are competitive in these governors races, and we are everywhere. we are organizing early, and we are talking about the issues that people care about. that is the key to our success. >> i want to put the same question to you, which is essentially what happens in the everywhere. senate? most expectations are that republicans will expand majority in the senate, but what are you looking for in the breakdown of the senate and particular? >> again, our pathway to victory in the senate is undeniably and a were, but there is a real pathway, and it starts in nevada. dean of the nevada reporting core wrote a piece sunday based

on the early voting saying that it looks like jacky rosen is going to win, and i think she will win because she is fighting for health care, and we have been organizing everywhere. you have nevada. you have arizona, where candidates are running spirited campaigns focusing on the issues. have victories there, and in all the places where we are playing defense, the common denominator is we have spectacular candidates. he looked six years ago, people underestimated heidi heitkamp. nate silver called every single senate race correctly and 2012 except north dakota because he underestimated heidi heitkamp. she is touching every zip code there, and so i think when you talk about these races -- and i have not mentioned beto o'rourke

-- turnout in texas. and filbert is in. i just was watching some footage of a polling place in tennessee where people have been waiting for kit hours. phil present is a brand. i was just watching footage of a polling place in tennessee where people have been waiting for two hours. what polling does not capture in places like texas is the fact we have taken a qualitatively different and better approach to this election and not just the democratic party but the broader ecosystem. we are touching first time voters. we are touching sporadic voters. we are reaching out in communities of color where we did not pay attention, and we are expanding the base of the electorate, and that's why a think we have a shot and those governors races i mentioned.

>> we know you want to get out there as those polls begin to close. i know we have some breaking news. >> our first race of the night that we can now call, republican congressman howell has been projected to retain his seat in the state of kentucky according to the associated press. really, no surprise that the thisar-old has retained really safely republican seat he has been representing ever since 1981. again, hal rogers keeping his seat, congressman from kentucky. we will have more to come. this is "daybreak: asia." ♪

error: welcome back. i'm erik schatzker live at the bloomberg economy forum in the chairman of carlyle group. even though we are here in singapore, we must begin our

midtermsion with the act in the united states. you worked in the carter administration. i know you do not like to be reminded of that. it was a while ago. you have seen the house flip president nine times. the question is -- what do you expect out of government if the house flips against president trump? >> it depends on the margin that it might flip. one or two votes for democrats would be different than a 10 or 15-seat. if you have a 10 or 15-seat majority, you would see a lot of hearings, a lot of aggravation for the president because that is what i expect an opposition party to do. k: is that because of the president republicans established while president obama was in office? i think republicans did work

on trying to get some legislation passed. i think democrats will try to get legislation passed, but there's no doubt there may be some things the administration may not like. hopefully, we will bring together democrats and republicans. i started a program to bring immigrants and republicans together by interviewing great historians together and we get democrats and republicans talking together, having dinner together, and it is a small way to make a difference. erik: those that effort of yours, there is the problem solvers caucus -- are they making a difference? >> it makes a small difference. we have an atmosphere in washington that you cannot change overnight. is it the worst atmosphere you have ever seen? >> i have not been around that long, but, yes. and i do not think it will change overnight. : is congressional gridlock

by definition bad for business? >> i don't know that it's bad for business. well, somy is doing maybe it has not been bad, but on the other hand, everybody than thangs to work better we are now. erik: maxine waters, the california democrat who stands to chair the house services committee, has said that if democrats control the house, she will do to banks "what you did o us." obviously, she is not specifically referring to carlisle. what do you think she means by that? >> i have not talked to her. i don't know. let's wait and see how the election turns out. request tou expect a be hostile to financial services

as an industry? >> i don't think so. i think people recognize the industry employs many people, so i do not think it is automatic you will get legislation that will hurt the financial services industry. : i'm going to shift our conversation to china a little bit. you are somewhat a student of china. you have been there many times. given what you know about chinese leadership and culture, cold war orar or whatever kind of war this is the right way for america to resolve its differences with china? >> i don't think it's a trade war. there are skirmishes for sure, but i don't think it's a war. i think the chinese government would like to find a way to work the u.s.lation with government. i do think there will be a resolution, but it will not happen in 102 months. it takes a wild. has what you have seen thus far given you paz, caused yoursle to rethink

investments in china? >> it's tempting for me to say people should not invest in china so we have less competition. is is china is a terrific place to invest. even a 6%, it has a chu meant his growth rate and an enormous number of consumers. outside the united states, i don't think there is anywhere better to invest. erik: these tensions, trade war, etc., do not affect the -- >> of course they have an impact. right now, china is still having -- still growing at a significant rate. very good technologies, great workers. erik: what would you need to see carlisle to reconsider some of the assumptions and has made and the optimism you have expressed

about prospects? >> we have found it a profitable place to invest, so we are happy with it. if the chinese government would do something different than what they have done or what they say, i would look at it differently, but if you want to meet with chinese leaders right now, they are willing to meet with you. they like to see some resolution of the u.s.-china trade disputes, but that is another matter. about saudi to ask arabia. whatou hear or see softbank said when they reported earnings? they said softbank had a responsibility to the saudi people, so it would continue accepting money from the public investment fund even though the khashoggi murder was a tragedy. >> i cannot speak for them and i do not want to get into the game of trying to say what they really meant. i know they have invested

significant amounts of money, and my understanding is the investments have gone reasonably well so far, but i cannot get into his mind and i do not know exactly what he was thinking. ik: do you share any of the cynicism some might approach the situation with? on one hand on october 23, he would true from the conference andsaudi's held in riyadh, 13 days later, again, the cynic would say all is forgiven and forgotten and we would be happy to take your $13 million again. >> i recently say that clearly, the concern about what happened is one that is heartening that people are concerned when a journalist is hurt. i hope if a private equity person were hurt, the world would feel the same way. do you think they would? you don't think a private equity investor would get the same concern? obviously, i'm joking. i think that what happened has

gotten an enormous amount of attention. recognized thee world's intention is probably -- attention on this is probably more than they thought it would be. our situation is completely different than softbank. softbank has a gigantic investment from pif, and our situation is not the same. it is really not analogous. erik: i think that's fair, but i would like to know and others would as well because it remains a hot issue and a demanding one, how you think about it. has this caused you to reevaluate your approach and attitude toward doing business in saudi arabia? not invested in saudi arabia in quite a while, and part because we found it difficult to find investments in the last couple of years. ever since the arab spring, it has been difficult for american

private equity investors to find attractive deals throughout the gulf, and if the opportunity to invest in the gulf were to reappear, we would look at it, but right now, our focus is elsewhere. what about investing on their behalf? >> we invest on behalf of many investors around the world and i cannot say i check with every single one every single time, so i do not want to get into if it is appropriate or not. the pif has recognize the challenges, and i think they are trying to address this. erik: always great speaking with you. that is david rubenstein, the cofounder and cochairman of the carlyle group. we are here in singapore at bloomberg's new economy form. much more coming in our coverage of midterm elections in the united states. this is bloomberg.

>> him at the bloomberg new economy forum here in singapore. bloomberg economics has a comprehensive state-by-state analysis of economic factors most decisions in these midterms as we await results trickling in. we do know this report suggests democrats could be close and flipping the senate than pundits think. kathleen hays is with us with more details. will bloomberg economics be more polls have seem? >> they look at the political scorecard. they say it does show republicans keeping the senate, they give a state-by-state analysis and maybe a little more hope for democrats. consumer confidence in the present and future, consumers'

view of government policy, economic health, coincident, meaning current, and leading indicators, and here is what potential signal shows they will remain republican, very strong economy. florida and west virginia having not quite so strong economies. they will stay democratic according to this analysis. according to this economic satisfaction index for democrats in new jersey, indiana, missouri, montana -- remember, indiana is very important in terms of the question of who in the senate.et one interviewee said if we do get something like that, it will not lead to gridlock if we have division between the white house and congress. he says in fact, we will probably get more stimulus picking upocrats

some of that populist feel of donald trump will pick up on that. he also said the president may find more support for his trade war against china when it comes to democrats. we will see. ♪

>> it has come down to a battle for the house, republicans and democrats on seeking that blue wave. >> republicans control the presidency, the senate, the house. >> people are rising up. donald trump is not king. >> republicans on defense. >> hopefully we can match the democrats on an busy into this midterm election. >> i have never seen the republican party sue unified. >> jobs. >> job opportunities. >> it is the holy grail. >> a $2000 giveaway to giant banks. >> i am here to ask you to vote

in what might be the most important election of our lifetime. pres. trump: this'll be the election of kavanaugh, law and order, tax cuts and common sense. welcome to election night 2018, from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am david westin. we welcome our television and radio audiences from around the globe. it is the first national vote since trump's upset win in 2016. congress is up for stake. the results could change the world of business and finance, we are checking in with markets, headed by joe weisenthal. we also have reporters across the country, reporting live from various bloomberg bureaus from our -- over the night. closed ine now georgia, kentucky, indiana, vermont, south carolina and virginia.

the face-off in indiana between incumbent democratic senator joe donnelly and republican mike braun. there are four key congressional districts in virginia, including the one with dave bragg. focused on kentucky, where trade dominates the conversation. let's dive in. joining us, bloomberg news white house reporter shannon. by americanjoined action president. 23 is a critical number for the democrats to get to gain control. what do they need to do? >> they have to turn out women, young voters, hispanics, minority voters, and they have to be able to stop this momentum that is out there for republicans. there is resistance to the resistance and the president has been working like it is a presidential over -- year, on overdrive.

almost a rally a day to drive his base, to energize them with immigration, crime, the economy. they have to counter the big momentum from the president who is one of the most powerful surrogates in that country. david: as you look at where he has been, it is largely for the senate, not the house. >> if you look at the map, the president is focused on where he has an advantage. several states he won in 2016. republicans are trying to take over and drive democrats out in places like indiana and missouri, places were democrats are on defense trying to hold he hasse challengers and held a number of very major, significant rallies in states where he is very popular. if you look at his rating across the country, it is not that high.

but if you look at places he has gone for rallies, support is very high and you can see energy at the rallies he has held. it remains to be seen how much you will be able to keep his versus thegized, energy on the democratic side, which is largely animated by anti-trump sentiment. david: most people are saying it is slipping away. >> my best to guesstimate, and i am shy about making these after 2016, if republicans hold the senate and pick up a seat or two. i agree with everyone, the president has worked incredibly hard. we have not seen a president in modern history that has put as much on the line and as much energy at a midterm election and made it about him. it works beautifully for the senate, but less so for the house. he made the decision he will keep entertain the senate and members of the house in some

districts, particularly those with suburban women, educated women, who may be turned off by his rhetoric. those seats will be lost as a result, probably. david: it feels almost like he has given up on the house. he talks a lot about the senate, not so much about the house. doug: they were begging him to talk about the economy. we have local issues we worked hard on, we talked about the economy -- no. we will talk about immigration. david: we will come back to this panel throughout the weekend -- the evening. and we will be up to speed on the latest tallies. kevin, set the scene for us. gavin: polls are closing in key battleground states including georgia, indiana and virginia. they are hoping to make inroads in key states from democrats. there are 35 races in total we will be watching tonight, but 26

of those seats are democratic controlled seats and the democrat -- the president went 10-16. in the house it is a different picture. the key number is 23. that is a number of seats democrats need to win back from republicans in order to take back the majority. anything more will only extend their gain. that said, 70 to 75 races of the 435 total are considered tossups and one is the virginia house congressional race from district 10 where republican barbara is up against a jennifer waxen. in the 2016 cycle it went for hillary clinton by 10 percentage points. virginia, thean type of suburban voters democrats want to win back from the republicans. elsewhere we will be watching

the georgia gubernatorial race where abrams could become the first african-american female governor. she is up against secretary of state brian camp. this has been a very volatile race with a host of different racial components that have been made and allegations against both candidates. and indiana senate race, something republicans want to pick up joe donnelly is the democratic incumbent. they carried by 20 points in the last presidential cycle. republican challenger -- if republicans kick this off, it could be a good night for them in the senate. as an earlym indicator as the vote start to be tallied. we will spend a lot of the evening talking about the house and senate, but spend a minute on the governor's races. why that is important. shannon: redistricting, one

word. on a national level, there is going to be a new census. a lot will have the opportunity to be read -- to do redistricting. on a national level, that is what you care about it. it does speak to the mood of the country and especially red states where it should be a given that like georgia, the republican will win the governor's seat and they are close. we will see what happens at the end of the day, but it speaks to a broader state of mind of the electorate. i think the governor's races the most important from the community point of view. the big difference, 2020, their view on policy. less is at stake tonight. david: our first projection of the evening. it will not surprise you. bernie sanders, independent in the state of them -- of vermont.

we make a projection based on our own reports, associated press reports, and two or more major networks. our first projection, bernie sanders wins again. that will not surprise you much. are we surprised how many races that are least contested. shannon: i think it has been surprising the way this has gone. bernie sanders the potential .020 candidate again [laughter] just back to the gubernatorial races, the other thing that is important, the president put a choicethe line for his in georgia of the gubernatorial candidate on the republican side . you see almost the exact opposite in florida. of wheret is reflected

the parties have the energy and are headed. on the republican side it is the trump win of the party and we see that represented in the candidates. on the democratic side coming out of nowhere from third place in the primaries and has energy for the democrats. it is a fascinating way these gubernatorial races have captured potential we do not usually see. david: shannon raises another question, bipartisanship for the senate. democrats are running more centrist candidates. you take a look at the governor's race in florida, those are not centrist candidates. shannon: that is true. i think we will see how well this bernie sanders wing does. i think that should go back to 2020 whether or not having a far left candidate in 2020 will be successful.

it is not the democrats moving from the right to the center and back-and-forth. depending on your district you have a lot of republican candidates trying to distance themselves from the president and trying to move to the center and others aligning themselves with the president as much as they can. david: like a mix sally in arizona. in arizona. shannon: that speaks to the areas candidates thought it was best to distance themselves. he did not go to tampa or the miami-dade area. the candidates do not see an advantage. toid: we will continue closely follow these midterms throughout the evening. right now markets are open for trading in asia. sophie kamaruddin joins us from hong kong with a look at early trade. sophie? air as caution is in the we look at the session in asia. tokyo, slight gains up 0.2% for

the nikkei 225. the yen at a low against the dollar. the kospi trading flat. the emphasis for asian investors will be after the elections, what the outcome means for america trade and policy. trump is seen as continuing with his hawkish, protectionist stance. we do have the citigroup ceo for asia saying corporate clients in the region are already adjusting their supply chain. when it comes to data to watch in the region, the big one is chinese foreign reserves. even so, not by much. let's jump in the terminal to check on what is expected. you can see the turquoise bars illustrating the drop in reserves. fairlyast year it was stable even in the face of the yuan depreciation.

david: coming up, we go live to reporters in the field following some of the most contentious races that could have a ripple effect on a global scale. we start with florida. plus, the hotly contested indiana senate race. this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪

david: this is special coverage of the u.s. midterm elections on bloomberg television and radio. i am david westin. we have reporters spread across the country, following some of the most critical races. we are in miami. and we have another in new jersey's seventh district, and another in phoenix. let's start with you down in miami. senatethe field for us,

and gubernatorial race. have a lot of interesting races in florida. andrew gillum is a very enthusiastic young mayor of tallahassee. he energized voters. many are coming out to vote against -- for him. ron desantis is a trump republican. looking forward to 2020 in one of the most important swing states. david: talk to us about the race. a race -- corbello it switches, might that show us what lies in store? >> it is a really interesting race. the district hillary clinton won in 2016 by carlos corbello aligned himself as a moderate republican who pushes back

against his party on things like climate change in immigration. he is trying to make a case he will work with president trump and push against his party when it is good for his constituents. david: and across the river in new jersey, a fascinating race that has a lot to do with state and local taxes as one tries to hold onto his seat. >> that is right, david. when you talk to political strategist, they tell you the key for democrats to regain the house of representatives is make gains in the republican-controlled suburban areas like here in berkeley heights in union county, new jersey. here it is decidedly economic. you hear a lot more talk about health care, infrastructure and taxation. tax cut. big trump part of the way they paid for that was by reducing the deduction that was popular here in a state that has some of the

highest tax rates in the nation. this county ranks in the top five in terms of the median tax bill they get on an annual basis. this has been a concern folks have talked about. they blamed the incumbent for not fighting to get the reduction of illuminated from the tax bill. he was not successful in stripping that provision and it worked against him. his challenger has use that repeatedly to say he is not able to represent the people anymore. sure what more he could have done, but how strong is the on his own footing? >> he propose things in line with the democratic party. keep in mind he worked his way up through the democratic process. he never held elected office but worked for the obama state department, worked for patrick

moynahan in new york. pretty much it hears to the main democratic party platform. he has led in most of the polls. the mostrobably competitive house district in the state of new jersey. about 40% of the registered voters in this district are unaffiliated with either party. it is not the party faithful that will determine this election. it is those that tend to swing back and forth, depending on what they're proposing and how much they want to believe. david: we are going to go to phoenix, arizona. fascinating senate race. >> that is right. i am here at the arizona election event in downtown phoenix. retiring opened by republican senator jeff flake. whatever the results, they will

send a woman senator to washington. looks like things were trending toward a democrat, but in the last few days you see a flurry of polls that may be giving a badge to martha mix sally -- martha mcsally. it is the best chance democrats have a flipping a senate seat. polls do not close until 7:00 p.m. local time. an hour tohave over vote. we have seen long lines on social media. was aace i was that there steady stream of voters. we also heard from the most populous county in arizona, it accounts for 60% of the vote, the fourth largest county in the u.s.. they were saying turnout had been good. cast in person ballots and some 600,000 early ballots had been turned in.

saying on twitter there could be more votes cast in arizona this time than there were in 2008 and 2012. david: thanks so much. we will be checking in with them throughout the night. you can follow us on the bloomberg terminal. we have a projection to make. the virginia senate race has been called for mr. kane returning. surprise. we expected that pretty much. we just heard mi talk about voter turnout in arizona. what do we expect in terms of voter turnout? toluse: there is high interest in this election in part because

many are angry at president trump. sure they know there is an election. seele -- we are waiting to if they come out in large numbers in 2018 on election day. florida,e places like it does show election day voting and early voting is at a higher level than 2014. usually higher turnout is great for democrats. bringing out his voters. it'll be interesting to see the come -- composition. did a the hell fascinating survey. 18 to 29-year-olds were through the roof. shannon: early voting is still a relatively new thing. there is just not an enormous amount of data to say, does that mean more young people in general will come out, or did they decide to do early voting?

an assumption early voting is good for democrats. >> they do not try to make projections about what early voting means, other than people are doing their civic duty. that is all you should take from it. >> republicans put a big emphasis on getting out their deficiencies and getting out the early vote. racesd say in the house it has been a big focus. made a big effort. they brought former president obama out of retirement as the most well-known former president and democratic official. president obama out there so much he lost his voice to him -- he lost his voice.

i would agree, political find is have not had the time to understand the impact of early voting. i will tell you, internally the campaigns know who they need. we do not have a good sense of what this projects. >> one thing on turnout, the amount of fundraising. david: which we will come back and talk about more. throughout the evening we will have updates on midterm market data. how the election results may affect investing. for the first of many chickens, we turn to joe weisenthal. joe? joe: thank you, david. -- we have will be not gotten many results. nothing particularly dramatic. joined by our guest, three

decades with the financial times. i think back to 2016. people got it wrong on multiple fronts. they thought hillary would win and if trump did when it would be bad for the markets. the future was tanking, then a day later -- >> not even a day. just as i was about to leave the office. joe: should we not even try to forecast anything? >> you should always try. if you can find an edge somewhere, you should what you do have to always be aware of, in investment there is the phrase, to hedge your bets, a financial concepts. you should do that. that said, i think the most likely scenario people are pricing is popular. ideanot necessarily by the

the idea a surprise would be good. i think the democratic house and republican senate, regarded as the most likely outcome, made the best outcome for u.s. joe: tell me what you think that is. >> first of all, the market loves its sugar. if you want to be negative about it, it is a positive fiscal stimulus. very few people are comfortable with the idea of going further in the deficit. waves, theet a red possibility of another tax cut would not sit well with most people in the markets. most people think it is about idea. were to think if they say, we have the vote, we will do another big tax cut, yes it will be deficit finance.

you do not think investors would bid up stocks on that news? bid upnvestors would stocks because stock investors are habitual optimists, but there are these spoilsport in the bond market to hate deficit financing and would find the ona of president trump egged for yet another tax cut unpleasant. we are getting to the point where bond yields cannot be allowed despite much further without really beginning to have an effect. then there is a small matter of the fed, who we are told already loco and off the reservation. if you're are going to have that kind of supply of the treasuries jammed into the markets, if you are going to see that kind of risk of overheating --

overheating is a greater risk than refresh -- recession, the feds, loco as they are, would have to raise rates more if we had a red waves. joe: i want to talk about an interesting dynamic. i am looking at a chart in the terminal. it compares u.s. stocks versus the rest of the world. u.s. stocks, the story of 2018 until october, the u.s. has done phenomenally well. everywhere else was in the red. john: it was not particularly reversed in october. joe: it evened out. john: some of that is a great disappointment in europe, china. china worries about its credits. europe is returning to rather stagnant form. you also have the faang phenomenon in the states. joe: you mentioned china. how much can be attributed to anxiety? john: i think it is a major

contributory factor. what we should be more worried about with china is what everyone has been worried about for a long time, that they have bitten off more than they can chew. it means they are in more of a position for dealing with president trump. people are putting their chips ortrump winning a trade war winning concessions without needing a trade war. that is a reasonable scenario. joe: that will be a big theme of for the rest of our night, what the election meets for train -- trade. john authers, thank you. i will be back with more markets throughout the night. david westin, back to you. david: thank you, joe. at 7:30 we expect polls to close in ohio, west virginia and north carolina. we're waiting for those right

now. on those three races, i know one is important and that is joe manchin. shannon, what he looking at? those three are obviously important. west virginia is an interesting one. joe man in -- joe manchin sided with the president on key the president -- actively campaigned against joe manchin in west virginia. he really is an institution in that state. he has carved out an independent niche for himself. that is why it is so much in play. david: and in ohio, the governor's race. toluse: there is a senate race, but brown has been fairly safe. the governor's race is where president trump has put a lot of his effort.

is veryow the race close. you haveace where different ideologies, a sharp contrast between the two parties. it is part of the reason president trump went up there. he is trying to re-create the magic. >> which takes us to your favorite subject, 2020. >> ohio has been relatively important presidential elections. >> just a little bit. >> who the governor is in ohio could be critically important. much theget how current republican stronghold in washington, d.c. is the result to stepcerted effort these districts. they have done a beautiful job and now they hold the house. who controls the states is critical when it comes to redistricting as a look to 2020. when we look at west virginia,

it was not that long ago we were talking about brett kavanaugh's nomination about the big issue that would figure into this election. it seems like 25 years ago now. unlike his colleague heidi heitkamp, he would be the only democrat to vote for brett kavanaugh. if we do see him pull it out question is, how much does it support for brett kavanaugh play into that vote? david: let's go to the house again and north carolina. there are a few key races. could there be switches and north carolina? >> there could be. this is one of the few states where policies of president trump might be important. his negotiations on the new nafta are pro-nafta. they aren area where

for him. tax cuts are not that popular, trade is not that popular. north carolina, very different. these will be tough races. they are bellwether races. u.n. shannon cover the white house day in, day out. what is the white house's view? do they have hopes or fears? >> a mixture of both. they put out a statement earlier today about how much the president put into this midterm election. more than 30 rallies in the last two months. if you look the places he has gone, it is a good -- he has been to west virginia multiple times. he won west virginia by nearly 40 points. he will see a democratic win as , repudiation of his presidency but also he will probably talk

about how some of these democrats have their own brand. the challenger that tries to said if ion -- trump was on the ballot, we would be running away with these races. [laughter] >> some of these individual candidates are just not good. [laughter] >> they are not him. we are overdue for a check in with kevin cirilli for an update on key races. >> polls closing in ohio, north carolina and west virginia. is a stateia, this trump carried by 40 percentage points. can joe manchin hang on? >> he very well could. 69% for donald trump, there is no democratic senator defending estate tonight from a more pro-trump state. kevin: he backs judge kavanaugh and is against what democrats want to do with health care. >> he has walked a tightrope and

west virginia. he voted against the republican miners and supports coal pensions. kevin: the democratic incumbent against mike bonds, a state the president carried by 20 points. donnelly had the advantage in 2012. , mikepublican nominee braun, is doing well in southern indiana. that is his base, he is from the south bend area. and the very populous indiana suburbs. kevin: this is a battle ground zero of president trump's trade policies. the fighter pilot against andy barr. why is this race competitive? amy mcgraphaph --

is one of the best funded candidates in united states. right now that is yo-yoing back-and-forth. she is doing well in fayette remains ifquestion andy barr is strong enough. kevin: she has a slight lead at 62%. then we head down to the suburbs of virginia, congressional district seven. abigail has made things interesting. now is suddenly portray the -- portrayed as a d.c. insider. it is pretty stunning this race is among the most competitive in the nation. >> that is what they need to win, the suburbs.

>> i am watching educated suburbs like the 10th district. there is a smattering of districts we are watching closely with that demographic. if democrats take this see, it will be the first time since 1971. you have to go back and punch numbers. i will have much more later. many thanks. we will check back with them throughout the evening. breaking news. greg pence,brother, won a congress seat in indiana. not a surprise. the vice president's brother has been victorious tonight. as we go to break, indiana's all-important senate race between joe donnelly and mike braun. to see where the tally is, 12% of the rethinks reporting and

55% for mike braun. that is way early going. a key race to follow. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

this is special coverage of the 2018 u.s. midterm elections on bloomberg television and radio. i am david westin. we are back with our panel, shannon pettypiece, toulouse ola olorunnipa, toluse jeanne zaino, doug holtz-eakin. there was a report there is a lives ofversion of top the most red thing on the bloomberg. why is the world so interested

in who gets elected to our congress? >> president trump as completely upset the world order on his trade policies. they view him as an extremely divisive figure. will the american people side with him, that is what they are looking for. the reality is, it is not going to change much. the things he is doing he is doing with his executive authority. congress is not going to stop them. the good folks of italy might just enjoy the party and wake up to the same thing tomorrow. >> whether the house goes democrat or republican will not impact our trade relations with china. >> no, it is not. the house can spend a lot of its time on investigations and sort of get the white house working 24 hours a day in that capacity. i do not think that is either a good tactic for the democrats, but they may do that. i will tell you a democratic win in the house is not horrible for donald trump.

he will need a foil going into 2020 as to why he has not achieved promises. -- icy pelosi- led house am sorry to bring that up again. [laughter] >> keep us thinking about 2020. that right, he has an excuse if it does not go well, it is somebody else's fault? >> he punches hardest when he has someone to punch against. he is struggling to find a good enemy. is it nancy pelosi, chuck schumer? you can see him doubtful with different enemies to see what resonates with his base. when he catches on to one, he embraces it. that is a potential benefit to the president from the democratic house. of a distraction from the democratic house is very real, too.

this is the white house i gets distracted easily, if you have not noticed. [laughter] and a president that gets distracted and sucked down to issues. the staff tries to get the president's focus back on. you reported a lot of people might leave the staff of the white house. there are a lot of investigations, subpoenas, lawyer fees. >> the time after midterm is a natural exit ramp for a lot of people. if you are stressed out from the r, give up on legislative accomplishments you've got to get done in the second half of this term, get ready for investigations and possibly being subpoenaed yourself, which could cost you $10,000 to $50,000. david: we will come back to the panel in a moment. i want to get back to a veteran analyst.

al hunt, bloomberg opinion columnist. al, great to have you with us. set the stage for us. particularly for junior, those four races or so in virginia because the polls are closed. al: those are crucial. i so admire those young panelists you have on. god, i wish i was young. let me give you one piece of advice. do not extrapolate 2020. every time we have been wrong. it means nothing for 2020 right now. i think for jimmy is crucial. it is one of 45 states where republicans hold that -- hope to have multiple wins in the house. tim kaine had the good fortune to run against a white nationalist. they have to win in a district outside washington. democrats think they have a shot.

and the district greg referred to earlier, which stretches from michigan to the washington suburbs. if they can win two seats in virginia, that is on the way to 23. >> if it is dave rask, he unseated erica ball. >> and he beat him in one of the upsets. abigail spanberger personifies the type of democrat. former cia operative, young, smart, from the district. r fromr it is spanberge lamb --, amy mcgrath,, connor lamb. they arenot lefties, left of center compared to the current house.

they will be interesting to watch. >> those four people you mentioned are veterans or cia operatives, people in the field. one thing we are seeing in this race is a number of veterans who are running. >> it is remarkable. they have organized as a group and they came here a month or so for debate preps with top consultancy. it will be an important caucus. it.fornia will be part of i think they will elect at least seven or 10 veterans including three or four women. david: talk about the women. there are so many women running. we do not know how this will end. one thing we know for sure, congress will look very different? bit different, there will be over 100 women in the house. of the incoming

democratic freshman class will be women. there is a republican problem of sorts because they will not look very different. it will be predominantly middle-aged white guys, not that i am anti-middle-aged white guys, david. [laughter] it will be a diverse group. there are two or three of these women who are african-american who have the potential to win an overwhelmingly white districts in georgia, connecticut, illinois. that is unique because most members of the black caucus represent overwhelmingly african-american districts. watching virginia to some extent, kentucky. give us a moment on what is going to happen in 13 minutes at 8:00 as the polls are closing in the east. al: pennsylvania is huge.

the governorship in the senate race is a foregone conclusion, but there are as many as six congressional seats in pennsylvania. the republicans brilliantly gerrymandered the congressional delegation after 2010. was really one resident where the front yard was one district in the backyard was in another district. that is how brilliant they did it. the state supreme court threw it out. new districts are better drawn. we started the year with the gop having a 13-5 advantage in the pennsylvania delegation. it may be by the end of tonight the democrats have 9, 10 seats. pennsylvania is important to watch, as is new jersey. democrats are almost certain to win. david: many thanks to al hunt. up next, we check in with the midterms and the potential affect on treasuries, uni bonds and u.s. interest rates. here is a look from the

governor's race, including the key state of ohio. cordraythe democrat from the protection board. he is ahead as of now, but it is still early going. major race to be following him of the ohio governor's race. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

david: this is special coverage

of the 2018 u.s. midterm elections on bloomberg television and radio. i am david westin. we want to come forward with a projection. jennifer wexton, the democrat, will take virginia's 10th district. that is not a huge surprise. it was.com stock -- it was thought comstock might be in trouble. how about that? toluse: that is something democrats were expecting and hoping. if it had gone the other way, they would have thought they were in for a bad night. we will be looking closely at virginia races, particularly in the suburbs. if there are other races that have bigger margins that were less favorable to the democrats, then we might be seeing a blue wave, but i am not ready yet to call it a blue wave. it is only one race. of these races are within the margin of error. at the same time, the republican have to hold onto a lot more

thought to be tossups. right, many of the key races had a margin of error, but this is not one of them. this is an unsurprising result. this is where i live. people recognize this is one of those districts the republicans managed to get the congressional seat, holding on would be tough. david: time for a midterm market check. here is joe weisenthal with all the details. joe: futures a little lower than they were earlier. not huge range. i do not want to overdramatic size. we are seeing a little selloff. very early, nothing too decisive. want to shift gears and talk about rates and municipal finance. i am joined by analyst municipal bonds reporter. we have seen rates in the u.s.

generally rise. what is behind it? how much is just the economy? >> i think it is too good things. one is the economy and supply is also a factor. the fact we had massive deficits, fiscal stimulus, along with demographic changes that change how much we pay for social security and medicare payments. all of those combine. they have to issue more bonds. what you have seen this is not the inflation component of treasuries, but the risk component of treasuries is what caused the most recent backup and treasury yields. that is telling and important. if the republicans take the house and we get tax cuts 2.0, that could be a major issue in 2019. joe: right now our treasury investors you were talking to, how realistic do they see another round of tax cuts? >> everyone is waiting for the

outcome of the election. everyone thinks if the republicans hold the house, tax is a real possibility. if not, it is dead in the water. joe: what would another round of tax cuts mean for city financing? >> uni bond investors are skittish. if they see a sign of tax cuts, it would likely fuel a major selloff in uni bonds. many states have benefited from tax plan. maybe that would be a positive for local credit conditions, but as an asset class, it would likely fuel a selloff. joe: how did the elimination of the state and local tax reduction influence it unique markets with property taxes? >> it is interesting because it is still playing out. a lot of unicredit issues you did not see them come to fruition for another year or two.

we are seeing high property tax areas being affected. noticeable impacts in property tax revenues, it will take another year or two to show itself. joe: ira, we see rates higher this year, the lower on the night. for the viewers at home, trading at night, how liquid of these markets? >> it is not particularly liquid. on election night like we had back in 2016, we did have traders on the phone. i was on the buy then. we had chats and said, what does this mean, how will the market react? tokyo will be open. when tokyo opens you get some liquidity. it is not until the london open you have what you would call steep liquidity. there are a lot of people around. there are a couple 100 -- couple hundred people. perspective,r

state ballot initiatives, anything in particular you have your eye on that strikes you as interesting? >> the sheer size of bonds on ballots, it is the most since 2006. it is notable and tells us a lot about where we are in the economy. state localities are taking up infrastructure projects. they are not waiting for trump, they are going ahead with plans. they approved ballot measures almost overwhelmingly. joe: it is a role reversal from several years post crisis, where states were reluctant to spend. states comfortable, opening pocketbooks again? >> yes. it is ironic. they were reluctant to take on debt, now we see in just rates pickup and we see all these bond measures on the ballot. joe: great perspective. weston -- david

westin, back to you. david: democrat wexton took the seat from comstock. that is in the house of representatives in the suburbs of washington. we will have a slew of poll closing. told in more than 16 states and washington, d.c. we will bring you the latest results from states like florida, new jersey, pennsylvania and more. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

p.m. on this election night. i am david westin. this is coverage of the 2018 u.s. midterm elections on bloomberg tv and radio. 16 states and washington, d.c. officially close at this hour. among the key states, tennessee's hotly contested senate race between marsha blackburn and fill reticent. -- phil. house we have several

districts in play, three in new jersey, including the one represented by leonard lance. reporters -- we of polls closing at this hour. you wanted to mention one in virginia. >> i know this is one kevin talked about, brat vs spanberger. i know this is one people in the white house have been watching closely. berger is a candidate representative of what democrats are running. experienceman, has with the cia, a history of serving her country. it is looking a little close.

it is only 50% of the results in. i think people in the white house right now, this is a race they are watching. they are refreshing results to see how this one goes. if the democrats take it, they think this could say democrats are having a good night and we are in trouble. david: we have a projection, sherrod brown reelected to the senate again. not a big surprise. i think most people thought this would happen. explain to me why the president went to ohio the day before the election. many thought sherrod brown would win this one. governor's race is one where he thought he could have an impact. a strongrown has impact in fights for his constituents. he did well, as expected. the governor's races between two people not in office. could gin up his

support for mike dewine, running against richard cordray. the proxye some of fights going on between the president and 2020 candidates. so what about the governor's race in ohio? thing for the president. he wants to have his guy in charge when they do the due -- when they do the redistricting. it is also the battleground he is proud of having won. baseis the state where his really resonates. if he can deliver in ohio, he feels he could deliver across the country. he nationalized the election. he wants to show people, i can do it there. clairetalk about mccaskill for a moment. that is when the democrats need to hold onto, but it is vulnerable. jeanne: you look at claire

mccaskill. if she cannot hold that see, democrats are in big trouble. she is a very good candidate. she has run a very good campaign. i think of claire mccaskill is thrown out, it suggests in the whoe they do want somebody is in trump's orbit and they will replace her. key sign if claire mccaskill loses, democrats have real problems. david: what about florida? >> i do not think we have too many results. shalala, the results are looking good in florida. >> they have not confirmed to that. of the issues is a heavily hispanic and cuban population. i do not think there has ever been somebody not cuban who has

been elected to that seats. she was up against the cuban-american who was a tv anchor. levela broader, statewide this is very -- >> she would be terrific. >> this is a very important state for the president. he campaigned there at least three times. i was there with him and pensacola on saturday. for the governor's race and the senate race. bill nelson in the senate see, that is one where democrats are on the defense. they have to hold onto that. if they can't, their chances of taking the senate are slim. >> with 39% of the precincts reporting, lookout closely it may be. bill nelson at 51% and rick scott had 49%. this is one the democrats are very worried about losing. they thought he was getting in a better position. >> some people suggest the

gubernatorial race is helping bill nelson. young,nergetic, tallahassee mayor who energized young people. nelson, who bill otherwise may have had a tough time getting up a vote he needs. very close to call at this point. >> a republican candidate perceived to be outside the mainstream. >> well outside the mainstream. very much aligned himself with president trump. it is just hoping the president can carry him to victory. places where the president is helping the senate it is not helping the house. who watching carlos curbelo many thought could win one more time, but very late start, seeing his lead fade in part because of the president's take on immigration. toluse: if we stick to the topic of florida, the turnout we are

saying is astronomical. especially in the city, huge turnout in south florida, miami-dade. we are going to see a very large urban, rural divide. rural counties, which are small, but add them together and they count for a large portion of the vote, will be heavily republican. urban counties like miami, tampa, jacksonville, are going to have more of a democratic lean. out fight is going to play over the next couple hours as the votes come in. precinctsh 62% of the reporting in florida, we have a dead even tie between carlos and the challenger mucarsel-powell debbie -- debbie mucarsel-powell. >> it is a real divide between urban areas and rural areas, the house and the senate.

you just see this play over and twor again as a tale of countries we are living in. florida encapsulates that beautifully in terms of people getting out and to they are voting for. david: we turn back to our chief washington correspondent, kevin cirilli. kevin: we are careful are monitoring florida and missouri where the polls are closing. a want to head to missouri. senator claire mccaskill, the democrat, fighting for her political life against the state attorney general josh hawley. he has been hit on the issue of health care from the democratic perspective. ,epublicans made the tax issue hitting her for not being able to support the president's tax bill. this is a state president trump carried 57%. republicans have their eyes on missouri. florida is the key battleground state. tallahassee mayor gillum,

congressman desantis, this is a net. and is that -- this is neck neck. down ballot races from the democrat perspective could feel them to victory, bill nelson up against rick scott. this has been interesting to watch. senate race has also been interesting to watch. senator bob menendez was cleared of all his federal corruption cases. asthe republican is running an independent. he is a big pharmaceutical representative and he said he would be an .ndependent voter they have not had a republican tried tosince -- he distance himself as best he could, but president trump did

pick up a last-minute endorsement from president trump. .e will have to see new jersey congressional district three. is are going to be a flip from tom mcarthur the republican to obamaite?a former he is linking congressman macarthur to president trump's economic message. he was the only republican in vote for the tax package in a congressional district where it is very controversial to say the least. against hillary clinton here, but this is the district that went for obama twice. watch of these suburbs. virginia kim was called for jennifer wexton against barbara comstock. it would appear folks are watching the suburbs to see if they will have a good night. david: thanks, kevin.

we have breaking news from pennsylvania in the senate. bob casey has been reelected, not a big surprise. it is part of a dynasty. his father was a governor. bob casey will be returning to the senate. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

david: this is special coverage of the 2018 u.s. midterm elections on bloomberg television and radio. i am david westin. we have our reporters in the field. joining us from detroit is bloomberg's detroit bureau chief, david. let's start with you in miami. we have a dead even at 50-50. >> i spoke with carlos curbelo earlier. he said he is feeling good, but

it is an unpredictable year. i have been talking with him throughout the election season. he was feeling good. two weeks ago he became concerned with debbie mucarsel-powell. she mounted a good campaign and tried to keep the race focused on health care, which is that concern for voters here in florida. pushed backbelo against some things, he did vote with republicans to repeal and replace obamacare in the house. david: i know another issue is immigration, given they have a substantial hispanic population. it has been interesting to talk to voters today. i spoke to a few voters who said they were turned off by the president's rhetoric and because of that, they will vote for democrats today. i also spoke with immigrants today who said they appreciate the president's strong stance. they may have come here

illegally, but have relatives trying to come here from south america, and resent those coming illegally for asylum. lance's contest with tom malinowski? >> the polls just closed at 8:00. you can see people filing into the hotel ballroom of tom malinowski, the democratic challenger. ford, this was a close race most of the season coming into this. most of the democrats we have spoken to said this race is critical. they saw this as a very vulnerable district. republican incumbent leonard lance has been in office since 2009. his margin of victory in past elections has been narrow enough the democrats that they could take it. given the amount of unaffiliated voters as the polling we saw with democratic and republican voters, there is a chance tom

malinowski may have made inroads. we have not gotten any official word from campaign officials here on site, but it will come down to whether an of people turned out, not just the republican or democratic party, 40% of of democratic -- voters unaffiliated with either party. david: leonard lance has almost had a millstone against his neck for some time, fighting against his party, but mr. malinowski spent a lot of time outside his district, didn't he? >> yes. calling him a carpetbagger. it has to do with malinowski, who did spend much of his childhood here in new jersey, spent much of his adult life in washington, d.c. up until a year and a half ago he owned a home in d.c. but did not have a registered residence in new jersey. that worked against him a bit,

an image of someone trying to come in and be a carpetbagger and take advantage of an election system that may work to his advantage. malinowski has bounced back ready hard, attacking leonard lance, saying he has not represented new jersey as toughly as they think he should have. he says leonard lance has not had enough checks on president sayp, policies malinowski have affected new jerseyians, like the salt reduction. david: another projection, donna shillelagh will prevail against debbie mucarsel-powell, a first-generation -- i am sorry, la.donna shala >> about was the seat held by

republicans, but it was -- an incumbent who stepped down. this was a seat they really expected to take. this is good for democrats, good news for them, but not the kind to be action expected blue wave across the country. welch is our bureau trees in detroit. we have several races in the house, but also the gubernatorial and senate race. >> that is right. expected to keep her seat in the senate. big shocker if she were to lose it. widner had a lead for a while. trying to distance themselves from rick snyder. he gets a lot of blame for the flint water crisis. michigan has terrible roads.

the potholes are big, state police declared a state of emergency last year. talked abouter better jobs, better infrastructure and turning michigan into a better economy and not relying on the old automated -- automotive industry. talking about training workers in bringing a high-tech economy to the state. david: thank you, david welch in detroit. the midterms are just one topic of conversation. at the bloomberg forum going on in singapore. we are joined with an update. even as we keep an eye on the results of the midterms, this focuses on the u.s.-china trade

war. the sense we are getting out of this forum is that the trade war will persist through 2019, never mind upcoming meeting between xi jinping and president trump later this month. that is not expected to move the needle. where do we go from here? henry kissinger, former secretary of state, may have some suggestions. he says those parties, the u.s. and china, will have to start with the basics. both sides need to know what the and goal is, what concessions they are not willing to make. they cannot go into details without first agreeing on the basics. new perspectives are needed. interesting henry kissinger pointed out perhaps the u.s. should remember that china we have today is not the china we had 20, 30 years ago. it is much bigger, much stronger.

china can challenge the u.s. economy. something to think about when it comes to the u.s. singapore was asked about u.s. commitments in asia, whether the u.s. is retreating. his comment is that the u.s. is not retreating, but reviewing its relations with asia, the rest of the world. a lot of talking points at the new economy forum. david: if anyone knows it, it is henry kissinger. janet yellen, what are we hearing from her? you are right, she is talking about the future of stability, financial stability in the markets. it is a huge issue here. we are seeing a buildup of debt and that is an emerging risk not just for the u.s., but the rest of the world.

not sure the fed has the tools to cope with the new emerging risk. my fed has been focused on grow, not macro. pertinent toic asia is the trickle down effect of the fed movement on emerging economies in this part of the world, the likes of indonesia. we are seeing how indonesian markets have been smacked, among the weakest in the world. we heard from the finance minister earlier, asking for empathy from the likes of the fed, to understand the trickle-down effect how emerging economies like indonesia are being affected by what is a aggressive rate increases on behalf of the fed. for all the highlights from the bloomberg new economy on thelive

terminal. this is bill nelson and rick scott, it is 50-50 with 60% of precincts reporting. it is not the first race we have seen those kinds of numbers on. a close race in florida. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

special coverage of the 2018 u.s. midterm elections on bloomberg television and radio. i am david westin. it is time for midterms market check. we are looking at today's vote and the potential effect on equities. here is joe weisenthal. joe: thank you, david. it is getting interesting. we are seeing futures, they had been lower earlier in the day, and now in the green. not dramatic, but you have to wonder if the relative opacity not showing much evidence of a

gigantic wave in favor of democrats is giving cheer to investors here. for more on this of want to bring in cameron crise and sarah. cameron, is that your interpretation of what the future market is showing with this flip from red to green? >> i can show you what is going on. people are sitting there, looking at real-time projections. from:38 projection jumped five out of six chances of the democrats taking the house 2/3 then it dipped to 2/5 and now is 4-7. they looked at this and are trading accordingly. it is a low value proposition. as we saw in 2016 -- joe: not trading at its highest level, just sitting there? if if you do not follow

the initial impulse from the polls that suggested trump was doing better than expected, may be left a little money on the table. not necessarily the stock market, which tank then rallied. >> i would agree with cameron. you saw the initial reaction within districts, as well as barbara comstock losing. you saw the futures fall at that point. that was also around the time we saw a 95% chance for democrats to take the house. then we saw the lowest run. now we are closer to 60% or so, but the rally in futures has caused, tempered a little bit. it does seem like people are trading on these real-time forecast. it is interesting because it is still early on, a little too early to tell. joe: it is early on. cameron, why do knifelike this express themselves most clearly in equity futures, as opposed to grades or currencies? >> they do reflect in currencies

and rates as well. the perceived fame is that if republicans hold on to their clean sweep of government, it means the more progrowth policies will be enacted, which means in the short-term, stocks are higher. that would imply higher deficit, higher yields, bonds of selloff. that combination, you think the dollar goes up. whether that plays out, who knows, but that is how the market is interpreting them. 2016 if view going into trump had won, which he did, is it still the view when it comes to sectors, if it is a good night for republicans tonight, are people going to reflexively by banks? >> it seemed so. when i have spoken with ifestors they say

republicans keep the house and senate, it is a referendum on trump's policies. you could see tax cut 2.0 and further deregulation. in that case, financials could be one to benefit. we discussed this a lot lately. over the last year or so financials have not benefited. you have to keep in mind we are in a rising rate environment. which could technically benefit the banks, the we have not seen it follow-through. should the, republicans keep the house, the senate, it should be more of what we have seen. joe: i just point out 5:38. the fact we have not seen futures move, everyone watching that little squiggly line. have -- you if you can click on your mouse. personally as a trader i never found that to be a remunerative

style trading. >> great stuff. back to you. thank you so much. breaking news. for illinois governor, gigi j.d. pritzker. we are predicting he will be the next governor of the state of illinois. it is 8:30. in one state, arkansas. one key race is the second district, held by a republican. chinese markets opening for trading. the chinese watching the results closely to see how they will affect the stance on trade. will be closely tuning into these midterm elections. take a look at how the open is

kicking off in china and hong kong. underwater by 0.2%. this is china will likely remain in trump's crosshairs even after terms.d- meders remain jaded knowing path to any deal on trade will be fraught with peril. yuan extending its drop. >> thank you so much. i want to come back to our panel. a white house reporter. a political science professor. before the night is out, we will not have you be the last one. you have my word of honor.

talk about a couple of perhaps developments. a recent kentucky, -- one in kentucky. in the house, there were to bring bellwethers. the kentucky sixth and virginia seventh. democrats running women candidates who are public service. they are incredible he close, too close to call. vision, thesetic two candidates would be winning. reporting. in the blue wave scenario, these women would have cleaned house. these are just two races but two important bellwethers. these are republican districts. the fact that republicans are even contenders is a good sign

for how the night is going. maybe not this blowout scenario, at least from these two bellwethers. 85% kentucky house six, reported, andy barr 51% to amy mcgrath, 48%. are the some early indications there is not going to be a crushing blue wave? tsunamiearly signs that some have talked about in democrat stream doug does not look to be occurring. shouldcally, democrats pick up the house. they need only 23 seats. since theerate era, post civil war, the party out of partner -- power does pick up more. it is not going to be the wave they wanted. it is good for them but not the wave they wanted.

the fact it is looking tight in races in the house is a sign potentially the president got out his base and got out voters. might not have gotten out the record numbers they wanted. >> one projection, the state of new jersey. bob menendez will return to the senate. a hotly contested race. he had been indicted and tried. it turns out he will prevail. he will return to the senate. good news for the democrats. >> i know the white house thought they had a shot at new jersey. they thought they had a shot. >> don't gain one but do not lose one. >> new jersey is a state where democrats outnumber republicans. the ethics problems menendez had are part of the reasons this was considered close. ugin put in a- h

lot of money. thinking maybe he could win in a traditionally democratic state. right now, it looks like democrat states are going to democrats. republicans are sticking with republican so far. florida is going to being a can i all the way to read as long as we do not have hanging chads, i will be fine. going to be close all the way. >> as long as we do not have hanging chads, i will be fine. >> is claire mccaskill getting of the urban vote in missouri? parts.e are three urban areas. large african-american population. mccaskill has not had the greatest relationship with. republicans have made big gains in rural missouri. state inin won the won by 20donald trump

points. >> this is a state republicans want to take back fro democrats. hadhatever slim chance they of winning the senate. they need to hold all their seats. southern indiana, a lot of areas to go out. he has to make up a huge margin to beat mike braun. >> a ways to go. this is his former state. >> he appeared in a television commercial saying it is time to vote no on joe. he pointed out joe donnelly had not cited with the administration on key bills. most recently, the brett cavanagh vote. -- kavanaugh. what does this tell us about the scope of the republican majority senate? >> we are seeing a lot of

ticket votingreet can read you do not have a lot from states that vote republican for president. states voting republican for president. states voting democratic for president. jerry brown, winning reelection and all heil. knows apprise. brown -- sherry brown winning reelection in ohio. no surprise. that is a tough race. probably leaning republican. trick in that district is map was drawn by republicans. it is hard for democrats to crack. >> president trump campaigned

there. john legend. what does it say about the scope of the democrats? >> the way that they are able to win? win some of these tossups. the ohio first district is a tough one to win. not because republicans have held some of those lean seats, it is putting pressure on the democrats to win. >> ohio, what is the one county you are watching? >> franklin county, delaware county. we had a special election in august the republican barely won. i am looking at that one very closely. >> back to you. >> let's turn to elizabeth campbell in chicago. we have made a projection jb pritzker will unseat the

republican. how big a deal is this? >> is a big deal. it is not a surprise. governorad the trailing by double digits. it has been a tough first term. he came in wanting to bring change to the state house. he got a budget that wreak havoc on the deteriorating finances. pritzker is inheriting quite a mess. >> one thing he is proud of is the supreme court case where he challenged dues for public unions. into office in 2015 and went after unions right away. put limits on unions. we have $137 billion of unfunded

pensions. tie spending and budget plans to curbs on unions. it led to this impasse i mentioned. unpaid bills reaching $16.7 billion. jumped to junk credit status. we would have been the first day to do that. s of the governor's party overrode his veto to enact a budget to avoid that. >> elizabeth campbell reporting from illinois. let's bring back al hunt. where are we so far? does it look like maybe the blue wave is not developing? if it is goinge

to develop, it is going to be a small wave. you cannot extrapolate. the democrats are running about where they hoped to if they were going to pick up 30 seats. 35-40. facesks like amy mcgrath an uphill struggle in kentucky. florida is not looking as good as they hoped. other places, the pictures more mixed. there are three congressional districts in virginia, north carolina. the democrats wanted to pick up at least three of them. right now, they are going to pick up one in virginia. uphill in the other two. they could pick up two and north carolina. we get pennsylvania, even before the west coast, do we get pennsylvania and michigan and illinois?

there is no reason the democrats are not in the same shape we thought earlier. it does not look like a blue wave. >> we always talk about florida. cabello lost his seat. where are we on the senate race, governor's race? >> donna shalala won so that is another pick up. right now, i talked to someone in florida five minutes ago. they do not feel very good about the governor's race and they think the senate race is a tossup. they were confident a couple less confident but not pessimistic now. for many weeks was running ahead of nelson seems to be in trouble now. >> what about the ohio governor's race? what do we know about that? democratic candidate, the former head of the consumer financial protection agency.

he is running 3-4 points ahead of the attorney general. i don't know how much vote there is a huge democratic county. it is looking about where you would expect. >> what do we know about the turnout? there was speculation about what president trump -- making it about himself would do. has the turnout been even stephen for democrats and republicans? >> this is something the resident expert in this stuff would know better than me. my impression, this is very impressionistic, there has been a big turnout on both sides. there are huge democratic surges in blue counties. texas. yet there is an impressive republican turnout in rural or smaller counties. i'm not quite sure we are going to get the record turnout, the

biggest since 1966 but a lot bigger than four years ago. moments assume for the the democrats lose the house. or they have a relatively narrow win. what does that say for the leadership of nancy pelosi? >> i can make a strong case the democrats would he committing -- be committing political suicide to dump pelosi because they need an experienced speaker. it is about counting votes, teen tough. she knows how to do that. to bring in someone new would be difficult. the problem is there are as many as 20 new democrats who have vowed to vote against her. members,ring in 30 new it is a bit of a change election. 79-year-oldlect leadership in the house.

>> i got ahead of myself. 77%race in florida, pre-since in. -- precincts ahead. debbie has gone ahead. it is close but who knows. >> that's sounds like cook county. over 100%, old mayor daley would be proud. >> i suspect there is a rounding issue. >> that is too soon to call. -- shall a lot did what donna shalala did when. -- win. i want to see where pennsylvania and new jersey go. the democrats have to win five or six seats. they start off with four or five. they have to win a couple more. to be checking

back in with him throughout the evening. we are going to make a projection right now in the state of kentucky. will bean mr. barr winning the race in kentucky. he was the incumbent, he has held that. amy mcgrath has lost. the white house thought this was a critical one. >> helicopter pilot. democrats and enormous amount of money into this race. -- put an enormous amount of money into this race. the dream scenario for democrats. she was a star. she was supposed to be representative of this new female movement in the democratic party. tot the fact they were able be a contender in this district is a good sign for democrats.

that is one where the white house and republicans were on the defense and were able to hold that one and lock it up. >> it appears to have been that close. historically, i think he won by 20 or 22 points. this was the playbook. a woman with a military record. put a lot of money into a place where it is relatively cheap. they still could not get it over the top. successful,etty there is no evidence of a big win. how big a blow is that? >> it was one the republicans needed to win. the fact that it was close is a good sign for democrats. they very much would have liked to take it, particularly in this year of the woman. but that said, i think the fact

that democrats -- we have seen this in the specials, and the primary since 2016 -- the fact that democrats are making these red districts contested is a good sign for democrats alone. what did they force republicans to do? spend more money contest more in these districts than they ever thought they would of. they had to abandon other districts. we saw this with some of these virginia districts where they had to walk away because they could not keep spending and all these districts. yes, she does not win that one. the fact they made it close put republicans on the defensive. >> the money was a huge thing. the success democrats had raising money was a huge difference in these elections. >> a record amount, a lot of it from the democrats. they outraised in a lot of places they had not before. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

is special coverage of the 2018 u.s. midterm elections. it is time for our midterm markets check. ahn.am joined by shery and mike reagan. featurestching these bututures bounce around, these are not big moves. >> there is more liquidity. almost three times what it is this time of night usually. clearly the market -- the main risk was the democrats would not only take the house but the senate. that would have led to a risk off of event.

this is a relief rally. ultimately, the move in rates is interesting. inching backield up. when the dust settles, we are going to be back talking about the same issues we were previously. will this embolden president trump to stay firm on the trade war? >> trade. how asianhe polls of traders and investors are watching what is going on in the u.s.. what is most important? risks could have been as well, a stronger dollar, even a gop sweep, a stronger dollar, rates rising faster,

that would be a big risk. a lot of people who are watching what is happening in the u.s. are saying, it is not about today. where is trade going? en some saying -- se signs of reconciliation between the u.s. and china. disappointing news as well. uanthere are the dollar you exchange rates. >> the pboc advisor said the seven number is not that crucial. we have trying to -- been trying to gauge where they are with that. still above that $3 trillion mark. >> we are talking about helmet

terms they be relieved i a lack of a democratic wave. how seriously should we take this, given how badly pundits got 2016? stocks went on a furious rally, but it was not the conventional wisdom a trump reaction would be the best thing for the markets? , we were off to the races. be a mistake to extrapolate too much from what sure. seeing tonight for >> you are talking about the chinese foreign reserves. what is the key thing to understand? doing in termse of intervening in the markets. where they want to see the yuan

go. it is more to do with the economy. latest seen some the data out of china really not being that positive. barely staying above the 50 level. >> i want to go back to the futures. we were talking to cameron crise earlier. he said, it is not geniuses trading. they are just watching the ticker. when it goes up for the republicans, they are buying futures. real edge to find a in this environment. >> everyone has their eyes glued to the 538. >> it probably has changed multiple times. the analysts have said, don't put too much faith in these. sensitive toe very

the votes coming in. someoned almost imagine programming algorithms to track that. good luck with that. >> algorithms that watch the dial move. thank you very much for your perspective. there's weston, back to you >> moments away from the 9:00 closing. that will be in 12 states including texas, michigan. we have exactly two seats that have been left. one in florida. taking over the seat just outside of washington. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is coming up on 9:00 p.m. on the east coast on this election night. the 2018overage of midterms on bloomberg television and radio. among the key states we are watching, texas. it features the race between ted cruz and better will rourke. o'rourke. in minnesota, which fetuses -- features tight races.

breaking news, we are projecting the republican challenger, will take the senate seat from the in cup -- incumbent joe donnelly. there will be a flip there from the democrats to the republicans. this is a pretty bad blow for any democrats hopes left of taking over the senate. >> the polls had the race connect. -- neck in neck. confident.ame in he was running as a moderate. an endangered species, a moderate democrat. he supported trump on some of his judicial picks. he is looking like he is going to lose because president trump spent a lot of time in indiana. mike pence spending a lot of time down there, rallying