>> coming up, a special edition of "bloomberg best," highlights from the new economy forum in singapore. global leaders in finance and policy discuss the most critical challenges, and solutions that will shape the world going forward. >> i see the real prospect of an economic iron curtain. >> this fundamental problem of governance. >> you cannot apply the cookie-cutter world. >> from discussions to one-on-one interviews, listen in on real conversations aimed at producing real change.

>> i think we will need immigration, and encourage it. >> don't think we have the tools to deal with the emergance of risk. >> we need a global trading system. >> the best of the new economy forum is straightahead. >> hello and welcome from singapore. site of the inaugural bloomberg new economy forum. today we have brought together some of the worlds most respected business and financial leaders. policymakers, and economic thinkers for a packed agenda. the goal stimulate productive dialogue for deeper understanding and actionable solutions on important global

issues. the collaboration was set immediately by the keynote speaker, vice president of the people's republic of china. >> the progress of mankind has challenges and opportunities. we need to follow the trend, stick to the right direction and stay the course. peace and development must be -- in order to create conditions for a dressing the issues in the world. countries need to respect each other's development path, have consensus and resolve disagreements. efforts must be made at home to reform for innovation, and

improve income distribution so that the people can truly benefit from development. as the law of nature, a tied is accompanied by an undercurrent. in a world, economics and globalization as a historical trend will move forward. haslinda: the opening session continued with a panel featuring talks about the economy from china, and africa. what investors tend to get wrong when entering the market. >> 20 years ago, you look at the chinese business models, it was all copied for china.

today, china has yielded so much, you almost have to be locally adaptive, not just adaptive, but to innovate. there is so much innovation, and well beyond we look at how much are versus the facebook network infrastructure,, and the traditional company we invested in, a traditional footwear company. it should be supposedly disrupted by e-commerce and alibaba and amazon, but they are

thriving. i think people completely underestimated, and using the traditional playbook that worked well for them, that will not work well for them today. coca-cola, png, for every chinese you sell one bottle, it does not work anymore. haslinda: with africa, people tend to think it is one country, and that is a challenge for investors from outside the region. >> i suppose, it is like saying india and china are one country. we do not get ourselves preoccupied with the idea that part of the world looks at us. haslinda: what does the world get wrong?

>> it is not so much what the world gets wrong, a lot of it is in the context of our traditional relationships. it is like a parent and a child, we have a historical relationship with which we sometimes need to reset. africa is ready to engage the world as a partner, and this is why our relationship with china has worked so well, and why we are defensive about our relationship with china, because it has been a partnership and has seen the greatest growth between the two regions that we have ever seen. haslinda: anthony? >> i think the west sees consumer apps for ride-hailing in the states, i think of uber for food delivery, for payments, paypal. it is uniform, one app.

i think what they have not seen is this crop of super apps that come from china that southeast asia has embraced, where on one app you can order groceries, send and receive money, book your car or motorbike, you can do a multitude of things. super apps, the emergence of them. we have seen this big behavioral change among new consumers in asia. that is our chance, the super app. number two, the fragmentation. people think, can this cookie-cutter model, it will work in asia, in myanmar, i can guarantee you that is not the case. very different laws, very different languages, one

ride-hailing law here is a different ride-hailing law here. you cannot apply the cookie-cutter world, and the ability to develop the muscle to tackle these and overcome it. haslinda: coming up on our review of the bloomberg new economy forum, a conversation with former u.s. treasury secretary hank paulson. >> we are not in a cold war, people say we are in a cold war, it is overblown. haslinda: plus distinguished panelists discussing the next financial shock. >> regulators and united states to regulate this debt is very limited. ♪

haslinda: welcome back to this special edition of "bloomberg best." we are at the new economy forum in singapore. the new economy presents huge opportunities, but also risks and challenges, including trade tensions, currency conflict, and unforeseen problems. these are the topics of the panel discussion, managing the next financial shock. >> the progress is being made on financial regulation, how would you grade that? is it enough? are you worried about backsliding? do we need to do more? what is your overall take on financial regulation? >> we had unprecedented international efforts in the aftermath of the crisis to build a more resilient financial system with special focus on banks and derivative markets,

and international efforts to wargame how we would deal with the collapse of global financial institutions, which is a complex matter requiring international cooperation. all of that is good, and to my mind i call that glass half full with respect to financial stability, but i worry about two things, the migration of risks to other areas, and i think to build up in nonfinancial corporate debt. that is a good example of a new risk that is emerging in the financial system now.

prior to the crisis in the united states, our monitoring efforts with respect to emerging risks in the financial system were almost nonexistent. we supervised banks, but we had no comprehensive effort to monitor the entire financial system for emerging risks. that is something that has changed in the united states -- the federal reserve is doing that. the financial stability division is focused on it. we have international efforts through the imf and financial stability board. perhaps those need to be better coordinated, but we are more attentive to the emergence of risks outside the banking sector. it is unclear in the united states that we have appropriate tools to deal with these emerging risks. so, even when it comes to bank origination of corporate debt

that is packaged into clo's, packages of loans, i think the focus in the united states remains microprudential. the fed has some authority there. we are seeing growing risks in nonfinancial corporate lending over the last several years. we have put in place supervisory standards about that lending, but i think the authority really only pertains to what i call micro-prudential risks. by and large, banks that originate this debt, and we have seen deteriorating underwriting standards as well as weakening of confidence, unless it is a threat to the bank itself, to

its own safety and soundness, the authority of banking regulators in the united states to regulate this debt is very limited. so, and to the extent it migrates as it is outside the banking system to nonbanks that are originating this debt, it is the financial stability oversight council has some authority, but really very limited authority. i do not think we have all the tools even in the united states to deal with the emergence of risks. and you mentioned rollback of financial regulations. i would not say that i see major rollbacks at this point as occurring in the united states,

and i suppose having participated myself in seven or eight years of writing thousands of pages of regulations, i am sympathetic to industry concerns about regulatory burdens. i think regulators have a responsibility to try to simplify regulations for unintended consequences, but i do see the sentiment and the push is now going very much in the direction of deregulation, reducing buffers, reducing authorities, and i am worried about where this is going. it really has only been a decade since the financial crisis, and it is too soon to be moving in that direction. haslinda: former u.s. treasury secretary hank paulson

contributed to the discussion of crisis management. he led the response to the collapse of lehman brothers in 2008. he sat down with erik schatzker at the new economy forum. >> trade and investment as we know it are apt to change significantly. i see the real prospect of an economic iron curtain where we have both sides throw up walls and unmake the global economy as we know it. >> when you use that term economic iron curtain, you were harkening back to the days of the cold war, and the divide, cultural, economic, military that separated the united states from the soviet union. >> we are not in a cold war now. people who say that, it is overblown. we have the real threat of a cold war if we continue down this trajectory. it is a dangerous trajectory.

what i see happening is a growing consensus in washington that china is no longer a strategic competitor, but in danger of becoming a strategic adversary. >> you do not see the risk of china would be a strategic adversary? >> i see the real risks, i see that trajectory. >> a trajectory that the united states may help to drive, as opposed to china driving on its own. >> they are both. i talked about both the united states and china, and with china, clearly they need to move much quicker. >> specifically on what? >> opening up their economy. here we are, the united states was critically important in

helping china into wto membership. now, 17 years later, they still have not opened up in so many areas. we are talking about a $13 trillion powerhouse. this is a situation where many u.s. companies have given up hope. i have seen u.s. businesses gone from being an advocate of u.s. policy to being a skeptic, and now opponents of u.s. policy. haslinda: still ahead on this special edition of "bloomberg best," more sessions at the new economy forum, and some of the biggest names in global finance. up next, my conversation with malaysia's prime minister in waiting. he speaks frankly about accountability. >> they must understand that to be complicit to crimes is inexcusable. ♪

haslinda: you are watching a "bloomberg best" special focusing on the bloomberg new economy forum. him i'm haslinda aman. malaysia is moving toward a more democratic government following elections in may. a ruling coalition in power over six decades. i spoke with anwar ibrahim, president of the people's justice party, in line to be the next prime minister of malaysia. i asked about the challenges the nation is facing now. >> the fundamental problem in governance, we need to rid the

country of corruption, then we will have enough to share with the people. i think with this in place, the budget, the focus is new methods to ensure transparent government and be responsible for the decisions. we can manage. this country has an experience with a strong private sector and a strong force. >> front and center is the issue that is being investigated now. are you planning to meet up with gary cohn? >> there are ongoing

discussions. including goldman sachs has been under civil action in the united states. i think we need due process. we are talking about $600 million of commission, and i think they must understand to be complicit to the excesses and crime is inexcusable. in the process, the country and the people suffer. we must get hold of every cent that has been taken out of the country by the leaders or those complicit. >> how would you describe the

state of the malaysian economy in light of the debt we are seeing? >> we are fortunate in the private sector, we still have to resolve this problem with increased production, as in oil exporting country. and a formidable force with the palm oil industry and the services sector, tourism. take this all into account, we have seen in the last budget, the capacity to navigate and resolve the problems of the past, but to be able to attract new ventures in new areas. new areas in the services sector, tourism, artificial

intelligence, robotics, etc. haslinda: the bloomberg new economy forum presented a remarkable roster of participants and speakers, from eminent diplomats to legendary investors to leaders in public and private economic development. we have walked the walk, and at the forum they talked about the challenges facing government and economies. >> we are about to step on each other's toes. the challenge is to maintain a fundamentally cooperative relationship amidst differences of approach produced in large part by the changing technology. >> both sides have to be dealt with. the chinese level playing field, ip rights, and technology is

important. maybe the horse is out of the stable, because the chinese have established technological leadership at this stage in a number of categories. we underestimate how powerful they are in technology. >> it's almost certain we are going to end up with hard brexit. if we were going to really manage brexit in a way to manage both of our economies, investors, businesses, and the millions of employees we have, then what you would be doing is leaving the european union but staying close to it. haslinda: some of the most influential ceos were in attendance in singapore. insights in global business are coming up. >> we have grown from cash to electronics.

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haslinda: well come back to this special edition of bloomberg best on the new economy forum in singapore. the emphasis of this conference has been unreal conversations leading to real change in some of the world's most successful business leaders, who have brought real experience to the discussions. sat down with bloomberg television on the sidelines of the forum to talk about the challenges faced by world economy in transition. erik: do you see any change thus and thanks to sanctions tariffs, any change in the

flows of fuels and product? do you expect that to happen over time? > we know it happens and we put constraints into the system. first of all, the markets we deal with our global. constraints in one spot, it will move to another. typically what we see in our markets is this supply chain. we are not changing demand, per se, we are changing with that demand is being met. that gets moved around. erik: is that changing? >> absolutely. i think in tariffs and putting incentives to reoptimize your supply chains and moving them in different places at additional cost. erik: you expect to see the chinese buy oil from iran? >> i cannot tell you what the chinese are going to do, quite frankly. erik: how does it affect exxon most directly? just iran buty the whole picture. >> our business depends on free trade, and we are a big believer

that economies are best served by having open, free and fair trade. putink anytime you start to restrictions on that, it has an impact on the business. we like to think our business is robust to those and in a competitive position compared to competitors. while there is a de-optimization in the supply chain, we feel we are dealing with that fairly well versus our competition, and that is what we stay focused on. >> i think macroeconomic indicators like a change of liquidities, fiscal policy, could change the way that people travel, that small businesses trade. if that begins to happen, the downstream effect will begin. erik: do you sense that is happening already? >> not yet. the u.s. is doing really well as the consumer. their confidence is high and they are spending. i do not really see that yet. the issue is more of him i concerned about it -- more of

them i concerned about it? yes, i am. if people spend less, but they smell more electronically, -- erik: we have not had, ajay, well, i would not say we have not had but we have had a bond bull market for 30 years with periods of rising interest rates but not a secular bond fair market, rising long-term interest rates for three decades. what do you think is going to happen if in fact we are entering a bond bear market? how is that going to affect the economy with the second-order effects, which is spending patterns by a customers? >> if you get into this kind of situation you have a yield curve that looks more healthy. thanks will get more profitability -- banks will get more profitability. they are the first and which grows of getting people to go from cash to electronics. banks take on the risk of

managing the consumer and merchant. in a funny way, i think a more profitable banking system actually helps the tailwind in the electronics. the: do you worry about impact these china-u.s. trade tensions are having on your industry? speaking specifically as united as the company. >> specific to united airlines, we are seeing strength. we have seen it in this quarter and in the fourth quarter. erik: and you just announced a new route to shanghai. >> right, and that continues. we are the most u.s. airline that flies to china the most and we have been flying the longest. macrolides, do we worry about things like that? of course. rumors of cold wars and things like that, part of this forum that we are at today is important. one of the reasons i am here to understand the viewpoints of many of the people at asia pac and see how they deal with the potential future china. for us, it has been great.

erik: things have backed off recently but we have seen fuel costs rise over the years and your company has been able to recover some 90% through pricing power. how sustainable is that? talkedgiven what we just about in the possibility that the economic environment will not be as accommodating as it is are now. in thet of all, the rise field has been altered by many things, pricing as one. the way we have grown in certain markets, it is a combination of things that have allowed us to do that. it is important. is.sustainable it one of the things we might have to move away from is the historical volatility of things like how they affect our business and we have to prove to the market. we said that, sustained, higher, any i input costs has an effect on your business.all things being equal, we would like to have low fuel. erik: how concerned are you buy this very hot topic that underlies much of the rhetoric around trade, theft of intellectual property?

cyber risk is something that fedex has experienced firsthand. >> we did. picturee hit by the not -- by a cyberattack, which was acknowledged by the u.s. government to be either done by a state or state-sponsored. andas very costly to tnt, we have great cybersecurity get over it did not into the fedex side, so to speak, but is something you have to work about every day. you have to work to protect yourself. erik: who are you worried about, the russians, chinese? you have to separate it, it may not be the governments. it may be rogue elements. theft ande a lot of cyber. it is a tough environment. erik: you do not think state-sponsored is the biggest concern question mark >> it is a big concern -- biggest concern?

>> it is a big concern, state-sponsored espionage is a very big concern. it is one of the things the u.s. government has put on its list of things that has to be fixed. haslinda: still ahead, some of the most biggest names in investment shares, their views in global markets. >> we are fighting with our creditors right now worldwide. generally, when you fight with your banker, it is not a good outcome. haslinda: and in a time of economic transition, how can the old and new economies thrive with mutual benefits? >> the one thing i would add to the conversation as we might have to go backwards to go forwards. ♪

to this: welcome back special edition of bloomberg best, from the bloomberg new

economy forum in singapore. as populists on the right and left wrist more power of the government and economies, the world investors had to assess growing risk and reconsider traditional strategies. this was a selling point for the panel of geopolitics markets with heavy hitters taking the stage. >> we have had a growth period in the united states of about 10 years, the second longest since world war ii. people keep saying there is going to be a recession that some point because inevitably, there is always one that arises. do you see any recession in the near term, next year, two years, what, if anything, where easier? you?ere easier? -- worries >> first, when it becomes a reality, then we do have a 1% growth over the next 10 years. if we do not have that, we are going into a recession. our government has announced

that 2019's deficits are going to be $1.3 trillion.already , they are saying that math is not working out. i believe the biggest crisis could be -- and i do not want it to be doubt come -- the outcome i want is that we have extended 3% growth, what is that outcome is not the case, and i do believe the 1.3 trillion dollar deficit is still based on a 3% economy, some of the economy slips because the world is slipping or because there are trade imbalances are problems, and we see less growth, the problem is we are living with a deficit that is very large. we are fighting with our creditors right now worldwide, you fightwhen with your banker, it is not a good outcome. i would not recommend you fight with your lenders about fashion and are fighting with our lenders. -- lenders, and we are fighting with our lenders. if indeed, we do have that $1.3

trillion deficit, and if the 3%, we is not growing at will have a far bigger crisis in the coming years, and then the the ending of this big bull market is probably going to be reality. >> right now, the trade skirmishes we have with china, do you think there is a resolution after the election that something will get resolved? >> i do not think there is an instant cheer for the trade issue -- instant cure for the trade issue. i wish i could sit here and say after the midterm elections the white house administration understands they have trade issues. i think china would like to solve the trade issue. it comes down -- i would say there are two main topics. topic number one, for some reason, is the size of the trade deficit. actual trade deficit with

china is about $300 billion, net. and the president seems to think that number is way too large. i tend to differ with that. i tend to say that is 300 ilion dollars worth of goods -- will $300 billion worth of goods that we are buying cheaper. if we could produce them cheaper, we would you doing that. there is that issue. and then there is a more interesting issue that i think is pertinent, which is the open access to chinese markets and the enforcement of intellectual forced technology transfer, where the chinese have historically not allowed u.s. companies into china and have not paid for much of the technology they had taken from the u.s. i think that is the biggest issue. if the chinese would solve the first issue and by a lot more lng, natural gas, and agriculture products and bring down the trade deficit, that doesn't really solve the core issue. we are just respecting copyright

infringement. >> you talk to central bankers every day. what is the main concern that central bankers have about the global economy now? i think they are worried of traderade explosion impact between the u.s. and china. they are seeing evidence of slowdowns in parts of the economy, worried about italy what italyn terms of can do it related to europe, but the reality is i think central bankers are playing a smaller role in what we do. the reality of what we are spending more time on, focusing on, the political issues, populism, how that is playing i do believe the issues we had to deal with with saudi arabia, where public companies have to make decisions before governments.

so i actually believe investors are much more focused on things away from central banks. i do believe the role of millennials as investors are playing a bigger role, and i do believe the whole issue about esg and how we are performing as companies, whether companies have purpose or not, they are showing that purpose every day, is really what i believe is going to be the transformational change. whether central banks are tightening, easing, i think it is so secondary to the narrative today. haslinda: the new chief executive of goldman sachs, david solomon, was another tighten who participated in the ne economy forumw -- new economy forum. he sat down with their transcript. erik: you know markets have been shaky the past several weeks. the fed seems committed to raising rates. it makes one wonder if there is nowhere to go but down from here or whether things can continue

at this pace or perhaps faster. >> i think things can continue eriod of time, although, i would say we are later in the cycle. it does not take a rocket scientist to notice that. erik: people want to know how late. >> i would say i think the biggest risk -- and our u.s. economists have echoed this number -- i think the biggest risk right now is an overheating. can the fed, in the context of how it marches forward with monetary policy, can it continue to normalize rates in the way where they strike the right balance and we have a softer landing? they may or may not. i am not a prognosticator. research,d our u.s. it says they think there is a good chance they can manage it that way. history, i would also say there are very few tightening cycles that at some point in time, the tightening cycle does not create

volatility. we will see that a little bit is but underlined -- the underlying strength of the economy is pretty good. i are small data points that in some way give me a sense of what is going on. i give you one this week that kind of just struck me a little, there was a big financial services conference in new york this week, a lot of the big banks spoke, so if you listen to the consumer banks, all of them referenced the fact that when they looked at the underlying data they happen consumer behaviors, they feel the pipeline for the next 12 months to 24 months is still good. that is only one data point but relatively positive in the context, that the underlying u.s. economy, while may be the forward trajectory is slowing a little, it is still pretty strong. ♪

this is the bloomberg best review of the inaugural bloomberg new economy forum. the new economy is not something coming in the future, it is already here. two handles dealt with financing, and you economy, examining wall street's interface with asia, financing the next generation focused on markets and millennials. here are some highlights from these discussions. >> eight is almost like china's gorges,s a river, three the other river, everything else is freshwater and the rest of the market is ocean saltwater. the freshwater and saltwater today do not really next. you cannot really -- do not really mix. you cannot really have a lot of sharks flowing out there,

including goldman sachs, a big up, when youu swim sum up in the river maybe five miles up, you will be dead. it is over. similarly, a lot of the chinese fish cannot really come down stream to the ocean to survive either because they fundamentally are different today, but there is an urgent need for the world and china to converge and that, so our idea is to find a way to see whether or not we can connect it to hong kong. we are liking this big delta area, where the freshwater meets the saltwater, and we are capable to do both, so we will help people to essentially interact and change, and hopefully, that water will become bigger and bigger, eventually three gorges coming down the ocean and over time they will mix. >> i think for asia to continue ,o grow, one of the big factors as you have said, i do not know which analogy to go with, we will go with freshwater and

saltwater, why not? needhe water to mix, you to open up the capital markets. asia needs to open up its capital markets. it needs to create open access for foreign and direct investors, it needs to develop a transparent yield curve, and you need to have a currency that everyone understands and freely folks in the world. i think that is one of the key ingredients it is missing. yes, asia can do a lot for itself and china has done a lot for itself. the government has thrown an enormous amount into the capital of the system, but at some point, it just does not create the depth that you need to create to be that global powerhouse. 's the reality is that asia investment needs are massive. whether you talk about infrastructure, or entrepreneurial capacity needs,

of 1.7the famous number trillion dollars a year on infrastructure investment, you are talking about several trillions of dollars. you saw the slides when we walked in. it is $200 billion with those banks, if you had all the to $800 you get billion. the first number starts with the t, the second with a b, there is a massive gap. totalality is that the savings in asia are nowhere near adequate to meet the investment needs of asia. >> will the u.s. still be the world's dominant power? >> no. little u.s. still be the world's dominant power 10 years from now? >> you are talking economy, i assume. >> erik: economically, diplomatically, militarily. >> militarily, yes. economically, no. >> i do not know.

player, but i'm not sure it will be the dominant player. be extremelyill important economically, politically, militarily, whether or not it is "the," "the," but i it is think tenures from now, the united states will continue to play a meaningful role in the world. erik: i will touch on an issue that has come up over the past eye days, and it is with an to the future, we have a global trading system or an economic iron curtain of the variety that we were warned about earlier? >> i very much hope we have a global trading system and that we have a system that is more open, which requires more corporation because it doesn't only apply to the goods moving around the world and the supply to three have, but it also

applies to services because all supplies you have been talking about will be moving into services. that arehe societies still growing because of industry will be moving into services, as well. and that is still strongly restricted as we speak. we need more openness and a different kind of trading system, but it is better global because otherwise, what we are facing is pretty bleak. >> i agree with that. the only comment i would add to that is i think supply chains are going to be much more regional than they are. i think a lot of the manufacturers will move supply chains closer to home. for example, mexico i think will be a beneficiary of that, and you see a number of companies now moving product out of china, going to lower added value product, bangladesh, vietnam, malaysia, i think you'll

continue to see that. erik: david? >> echo the comments made. -- i echo the comments made. the one thing i would days we might have to go backwards to go forwards. it might, unfortunately, there is a risk given where we are today, looking at the world today, that we move away a little bit from an open free the moveystem's open forward. there is some risk to that. i hope we move in that direction. i hope there is no conflict or standoff in that process. erik: but you cannot bet on a question mark >> it is not think -- on it? >> it is not baked in the cake. history, itudent of has to go back and say, this could get off track. i do not think that is expected, but i am hopeful we do not go in that direction. it is a good morning for all of us to recognize why we live in one world where we need to operate, be open, and move in that direction. >> i would probably add to that

the importance of migration, immigration of people. i think what will end up happening at some point, as you talk about nationalism and how countries are closing their borders, we will have a shortage of workers in different countries, and to me, that is a real threat down the road. the u.s. alone, i think you have almost 6 million job openings right now, and there is a reason why you have so many compared to typically 2 million or 3 million job openings. we are going to need immigration, and we are going to have to encourage it. that concludes this special edition of bloomberg's best, from the bloomberg's new economy forum in singapore. it can learn more about the groundbreaking event and exclusive interviews by visiting bloomberg.com, where you can always find all the latest business news and analysis 24

hours a day. think for watching. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- thanks for watching. this is bloomberg. ♪

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