>> welcome to bloomberg businessweek. i am carol massar. >> i am jason kelly. carol: we have a special takeover issue called the year ahead, at 360 degree view look facing the business leaders in the coming year.it is all ahead of the bloomberg yearly summit in new york city. we will be there. : big scenes in the ahead,

the global economy and what to expect. >> we will also talk about trade wars, brexit, and a slowdown in china. ofon: plus, a list to watch publicly traded companies in 2019. carol: and what is next for u.s. politics? it is never too early to talk about 2020. jason: which is why we start with josh green in washington, d.c., the author of the devil's bargain. bloombergeek's businessweek story on the 2020 presidency has begun, making it turkey for democrats. my josh:will have a -- we will have a big clash between the.democrats and republicans to want back the house i am looking at the pressures that will follow the democratic party. they have no toehold in power, republicans control everything, white house, senate, and now

democrats have subpoena power, oversight. that will bring pressures on the party because what you see in 2019 is at the party begins to split into two factions, you will have the governing weighing the led by nancy pelosi and congress, and then you will have as many as two dozen or more democratic presidential candidate's jockeying for the hearts and minds of primary voters. it looks to me like those two groups could go in entirely different directions. carol: so divides the party and mixed difficult? josh: yes. democrats have been saying for two years in congress, give us control. we will govern responsibly. we will be a check on trump, that is largely why they got elected. if you talk to strategists, people wanted them to govern responsibly. if you are a presidential candidate, you are not so much worried about governing. you are worried about standing up from the big crowd of residential contenders. one way to do that is to be the furthest to the left, the most

vocally anti-trump, so you have people like the wealthy liberal activists, tom steyer, who has spent $100 billion running cable ads, saying we should impeach trump. that is a direction by and large the elected democrats in washington do not want to go. they think there will be serious backlash to that. styer, they get by on spectacle. they want that attention because they want potential primary voters gravitating to their candidacy. that puts cross pressures on the democratic party that the party will have to grapple with the 2019. poll: you do mention a when it comes to the issue of putting forth impeachment proceedings against the president, and you see all voters -- are to the poll -- 51% oppose the idea of house democrats bringing on impeachment proceedings. if you look at democratic voters, they want the democrats

to go after the president. josh: that is right. nancy pelosi has been out the last couple of months. anytime they say, if you win i don't think, that is virtually go and has tried to enforce the line, but if you look at the poll that came out this week, what it shows is that only 32% of americans want to impeach trump. the majority do not want to impeach trump, but when you look at the subsample of only democrats, a majority of democrats do want to impeach trump, 61%, so close he will have to grapple with the fact that a lot of democratic voters do want to rush to that extreme and impeach donald graham -- impeach donald trump. democratse tight rope will have to walk in 2019, and if they are not careful, they could lose the majority they just won. and in 2020, whether or not donald trump gets elected to a second term, it is important to see how the democrats will play that election, too.

carol: outside of washington, d.c., trade, according to a consensus, the biggest threat to the world economy in 2019 is an escalation of the u.s.-china trade war. jason: at the same time, hopes have been raised by president trump scheduled meeting with president xi jingping at the g20 meeting later this month in argentina. here is our reporter in d.c. on what we expect from that meeting of the year of trade ahead. >> we do not really know is the quick answer, but there is a best and worst case scenario. both have big implications for 2019 and what we see the trade wars. the best case scenario, we think, and what we hear out of the white house, is we get some kind of cease-fire. a kind of, ok, guys, we have gone to war, let's take a pot is, maybe we put a positive on tariffs. there are 200 billion products 10%ith them in september, a tariffs due to go up to 25% in

january, and one possibility is the trump administration puts a pause on that in exchange for some kind of measures from the chinese and concessions, but that is the good case scenario, and then you go into months and about of talks complicated things that drag on, as trade negotiations do. the worst scenario is there is no cease-fire and then we go into january, and the guns are blazing. on theup to 25% previously mentioned $200 billion in trade, and the president is already talking about another big whack, which is $257 billion, basically all of the trade remaining could be hit by tariffs in the new year. at the g20, a hugely important meeting, it will set the stage for 2019 and how bad the trade wars will get. jason: what are we to make of what the president of united states said coming out of this long phone call that he had with president xi of china. he seemed optimistic, the markets rallied a little on that

perceived optimism. is there some there there? is this rhetoric? do we have a sense of that? shawn: one of the things we have always heard about president trump, always pay attention to the last person you talked to. he always comes out of a meeting with xi were conversation with xi, and the comes up optimistic about the possibility of doing a deal, and that he huddles with advisers, and among his advisers, there's the pro-deal crowd, steven mnuchin, larry kudlow, on the kind of wall street side of things, you think you do not want to upset markets . they are worried about the potential for a trade war that gets out of hand, and then you have the china hawks, peter navarro, bob lighthizer, who think that we are kind of -- the u.s. is fighting and end go fighting a battle about the u.s. future, and we should not give up easily. jason: you mentioned bob

lighthizer, are there any lessons to be drawn from the nafta negotiations? 's anything about the u.s. posture or negotiating style at this point that we can draw from looking forward? shawn: i think, one, china is different in terms of size and scale of the problem. and also, the view in washington on both sides of congress that it is a problem, and that it needs -- the u.s. needs to get tough, so that is a different story. at the same time, remember, we had a lot of bluster going into these nafta negotiations. and we came out with something, there are some interesting tweets, but this is really a tweet trade agreement rather than a revolutionized one. jason: still ahead, the global economy in 2019. will it squeeze out another good year? carol: plus, brexit aftermath. abouthe headlines say

mark carney will be in the hot seat to repair the economic damage. jason: that is part of this special bloomberg businessweek, a year ahead, which leads to the conference we will be at a new york on november 28, all day on bloomberg television and radio. carol: this is bloomberg businessweek. ♪

welcome back to bloomberg businessweek. i am carol massar. jason: i am jason kelly. join us for bloomberg businessweek everyday on the radio from 2:00 to 5:00 p.m. wall street time and you can catch up on our daily show by listening to our podcast that itunes, soundcloud, and bloomberg.com. carol: you can also find us online at businessweek.com endemol up. india -- and our mobile app. growth may be a bit more imbalanced. jason: and rising interest rates and tariffs in the u.s. could make for trouble. i caught up with peter coy in d.c. cassette the economic stage

with his intro to this week's special year ahead issue. >> we tend to focus on the negative. there are so many things that are to worry about, the crazy stock market, trade tensions, so on, so we, journalists, but even the public tend to worry about what will happen next.it feels like a roller coaster . yes, if you actually look at the performance of the global economy, according to the international monetary fund it, steady.een remarkably we had 3.7% growth in 2017, looking for the same in 2018, and looking for exactly the same , 3.7%, in 2019, which is a good, solid, steady growth. i just think it is good to keep that in mind. jason: one of the reasons people worry, i should point out, is because it has been so good for so long, right? isn't that part of the reasons as humans we think, this cannot last forever? peter: high marks have been

great, and the u.s. economy has been great. case,s. is an interesting first, it is the biggest economy economy,rld, and the in june,s past 2019 still growing, will be the longest expansion in u.s. --tory, going back taken 57 going back to 1857. it has not been a strong recovery but steady, like a tortoise. jason: but the duration has been unprecedented. peter: if we make it, and we are the u.s.to, but if continues to grow well, and it might grow quite as strongly 2019, but still better than europe, that will help pull along the rest of the world. that is the reason the imf is taking another 3.7% global growth because you have that engine of the u.s. pulling in

imports from around the world. jason: let's talk about the u.s. versus the rest of the world because we had this -- if carol were here, she would talk about synchronized global growth and whether that is a real thing, and whether it is not any less ina real thing in the sense a sense the u.s. has been out pain seeing a lot of the -- outpacing a lot of the other countries, farther along in tightening financial conditions because of the worry that it will be so strong it is at risk of becoming inflationary. so what happens when you raise your interest rates? you pull in money from elsewhere. that is one of the downsides of the strong u.s. growth. there are certain countries that have gotten vulnerable to that, like argentina and turkey. if jay powell, the chairman of the fed, raises the federal funds rate in the u.s., and an

entire range of rates goes up in the u.s., it is a more attractive a place for global investors and pools numbers out of the weaker markets, which need the money because they are winning deficits any the constant inflow of foreign capital. the only way they can respond is to drive their interest rates up to punishingly high levels, which would hurt their economy, catch-22. jason: what do you think will happen? peter: i think there will be some of that. there will be constant pressure and weaker developing nations. there is another way in which the good of the u.s. economy has a bad, and that is, again, when the u.s. is pulling money, it is also pulling goods and services. the u.s. runs bigger trade deficits. who does not like that? a lot of people. jason: one person who we know from his twitter feed is not like that. peter: and who do we expect trump to blame? advisor,not his own

probably these countries that have trade circles in the u.s., and he tends to perceive it as a sign of malfeasance, not just the workings of trade and investments. jason: that somebody is trying to get away with something and he is here to stop it. peter: what do you do? you correct higher trade barriers to stop that from happening. the very fact the u.s. is growing well, which is a positive, could result in even stronger trade frictions and 2019. carol: trade, brexit, and a slowdown in china are some of the issues that could impact the world economy and politics in 2019. jason: here is editor joel weber on how he put together bloomberg is this week's special issue on the year ahead. jewel: eight -- joel: it is all about the future, what does the future hold? we can only make an educated guess. when we looked at our crystal ball, which looks like data, we

were able to break it out to the themes in the issue, and those were the ones we felt going into next year, these are the ones they will be talking about for all of the year. carol: one of the things we talked about a lot in 2018 was china and we will continue to talk about it. of the country, and it will continue to evolve. the element we wanted to talk about was slowdown. when you look at the numbers, something is happening. carol: which is something we do not normally talk about when it comes to china. we just talk about growth. growth.owth, growth, there seems to be a shift, and we see the government grapple with that, in part with the stock market, which has really cool down. at the same time, there is a lot of debt, which leaves everyone to believe there could get be another variable and that could have consequences for the global economy. carol: it is interesting to see the implications of what they will be. joel: absolutely. it will be one of those stories we will hear about week in and week out throughout 2019. carol: and brexit kept us busy this year and will next year.

joel: it will continue because there is a deadline. there will be the outcome by that deadline. we do not know what it will be yet, but something will happen. and the other consequence of this is what it means for the rest of europe. there is the brexit story, but what are the ramifications for the continent and the politics seen drifting to the right, and the chrome pushing back on -- and macron pushing back on the left, so all of your past this reckoning because of brexit. will there be more referendums like with the u.k. decided to do? or will it be harmonized, finally, like it has been the last years? carol: i came back from an event in london, and they were polled about what it would be with brexit, would it be a messy crash landing? people did not think the time of things would change. that is why would we think

about the year ahead issue, this is just a topic we know will define a year. carol: this issue is a wonderful warm up, lead up to a big event we do have bloomberg. joel: it is a franchise moment, the year ahead, so we will have a conference in new york and another in tokyo. i will be at the tokyo one. it is a chance to bring a lot of is this leaders together and talk about the trends, -- a lot of business leaders together and talk about the trends. carol: coming up, mario draghi will end his eight year term as president of the european central bank. jason: plus, more from bloomberg businessweek special your head. the top company we are keeping our eye on. carol: this is bloomberg businessweek. ♪

welcome back to bloomberg businessweek. i am jason kelly. carol: i am carol massar. you can also listen to us on

-- sirius radio. jason: and on london dab digital and bloomberg business app. carol: in this week's special issue, the year ahead, we turn to the european central bank. mario draghi is in his final stretch as the european chief, but for his term ends, he may do something he has never done, raise interest rates. jason: key and others of the council are hinting that their first moved to undo more than half a decade of stimulus might come before his exit at the end of october. here is still in black. dashers kristi noem flat. term happens his in october of next year. he would have been in his position for 18 years. he has not raised rates once. carol: in seven years. >> writes, and he began by

lowering them. so -- right. and he began bellowing them. we anticipate at that point toward the ends of his term, what is going on in italy now, is a bit of an embarrassment for draghi because he is italian, but a sickly rome is having a fight with brussels over its deficit -- but basically rome is having a fight with rustles over its deficit target. if that explodes and rekindles fears about a debt crisis in europe, all bets about an interest rate increase will be off. draghi, i mean, being head of the european, in the story, it says it's one of the juiciest prizes in your land. >> it is a very powerful steppingstone. is what draghi proved because there is a governing council of 24 people on it, basically, it includes all of the central bank presidents from the countries in europe, but he

proved that this is a council of equals, that he -- that this is in the council of equals. that he was able to quell some of the rebellions inside, notably from germany and other countries who opposed the huge bond buying program he started. so he proved that he was able to exert pressure. he used different tactics and got his way. this is why all investors are looking at who will fill the shoes? carol: is there any speculation? >> we know it will be a central banker most likely now that a couple of candidates were not out of the race, and it will most likely be someone from a country that can say it is in northern europe, france because it is not as formal but there is an alternation of power from north to south in this post. of tests, in the

u.k., they are still trying to figure out the terms for brexit. bank of england governor mark carney, what is the predicament you might find himself in the 2019? >> there is absolutely no playbook for that situation that the bank of england faces next year. i mean, we saw a bit of a preview after the referendum about the international reaction, so there was a drop in there was a small market panic eventually, so if there isn't a deal that specifies some sort of smooth transition, i think that by the time march 2019 deadline rolls around, i think the bank of england will be a sort of first responder in any crisis that happens. carol: so the economy starts to wobble in the u k and you might

have to cut rates or something? >> it will be difficult because he wanted to raise rates if he wants to shore up the pound. differentve to take a tools to stimulate the economy at the same time and shoring up the pound, so it will be a difficult task. on the other hand, if there is a deal that things go smoothly, he may have to raise rates because the economy may need to be -- inflation may need to be tamped down. carol: he is due to step down in 2020. extendedare> term has been many times, so we say he is due to step down in 2020. jason: still to come, the 50 companies who made the cut on who to watch in 2019. it is part of a special issue of bloomberg businessweek, the year ahead. the lead up to the bloomberg's your head summit, where you and i will be speaking on the most

urgent topics facing executives on november 28 on bloomberg television and radio. carol: this is bloomberg businessweek. ♪

jason: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." carol: still ahead, people in the hot seat in 2019. that includes softbank's ipo. jason: and why next year is expected to be a mega year for mega listings. carol: our global data team

sifted through 2000 companies. jason: we caught up with the editor behind the list. >> it is a list, not a ranking. it is interesting. lists can sometimes be offputting. but you will learn a lot. carol: energy companies. >> energy companies, not surprisingly. every year we will see a good batch of energy companies. we have several, like marathon. there was a huge acquisition. the $28 billion merger with andeavor. they just closed one month ago. heading in 2019, it will be the largest u.s. oil refinery.

that introduces factors worthy of attention. carol: we spend so much time thinking about the companies that disrupt our world. energy companies are still big players globally. dimitra: there is so much happening with them. those are the reliable companies year after year. carol: we saw that going on in 2018. ford restructuring will still be the story next year. dimitra: ford has been on our list a few years in a row. when we have repeats, we say has , the story fundamentally changed? should we include it again? the consensus is ,yes.

there is pressure on the ceo. this restructuring plan is not delivering as quickly as investors might like. autonomous, not as quickly. there is a lot of stock in their pickups. no pun intended. moving away from the sedan. their interest in the sedan is not what it used to be. three new models coming. recent days they are playing , catch-up. they are striking a deal with walmart that will develop autonomous vehicle for groceries. volkswagen has interest in partnering with ford. will this fundamentally bring about the changes investors are looking at? the ceo is not one of ours to watch, but he is still under a

bit of pressure. carol: do not judge me. i will end on a high note. pun intended. cannabis industry, we've talked about this year. dimitra: one of our sections focused on cannabis about a month ago. that was on the eve of canada legalizing it recreationally. that changes stakes. one of our companies on our list is canopy. it's doing really well. it's a canadian company. pixus is a tobacco company seriously moving into cannabis because of the opportunities there. carol: the cannabis industry is growing big time. we have the world's largest cannabis producer, canopy. we have a chart.

when we think about sales growth or estimated growth, if we hit double digits, we are pretty impressed. canopy, we talk about growth, almost 557%. growth oflates into 88%. these numbers are off the charts. jason: is this translating into the stock price? yes. for more, let's go to taylor riggs. you have a chart. we count on you for complicated charts. this is pretty straightforward. taylor: the bloomberg terminal is great for everything. we can do something complicated or show a basic chart and let it speak for itself. that is what we are doing. we have brought it back to 2010. over the last year, the stock is really picking up. you have almost 200% returns over the last year. earnings per share growth, recently 30%. 87% is another story.

a lot of other companies making investments and canopy growth, really marijuana has started to , become more socially acceptable. not a bad investment. carol: it's amazing the run this stock has had. jason: thanks. carol: runs like that is why canopy growth is one of our 50 companies to watch. jason: why the overall market is a theme in the consumer section. here is our editor, jim ellis. jim: the big driver has been legalization in canada. a large country. countrywide. companies have gotten serious. you saw constellation brands, the drinks company that makes corona. it started with a small investment of $150 million, and that is large for a cannabis company. now its invested $3 billion in a big cannabis company.

it is planning to look for cannabis drinks. people talk about recreational. the real money in this is going to be putting cannabis in as an ingredient. drinks or foods. that will take off. in canada so far, only allows 2019, you to smoke it. it will allow you to put it inside edibles next year. carol: keep a watch on china for the ev market. why? we talk about what american manufacturers are doing. jim: it's the biggest market for electric vehicles, and cars. the way the u.s. used to drive the global auto market, china is doing that in the future. in january, they are adopting a cap and trade system on emissions. what that means is, to get them

down, you will have to have what is called new energy vehicles, plug-in, hybrid and a certain , percentage of output that's the cars you import into china -- they have to be that way. if you don't have that, you have to buy credits from other companies that have extra credits, like tesla. all of the global automakers are saying, i will commit to more electric vehicles, because i have to do it for china. therefore i will have to do it globally. california sets rules for emissions because it is so big. it forces those companies to green the rest of the u.s.. carol: another hot topic is diversity, impacting global businesses in the year ahead. former ceo of virgin money.

>> it is a business issue. in running our business, we probably pour over the numbers of commercial success and cost base, you have to look at them from a diversity point of view. you have to work out what is good and bad. we really make this an objective to achieve. jason: still ahead, uber and lyft and slack are done with waiting to go public. they top a record-breaking lineup of 2019 listings. carol: we will be speaking with industry leaders on the most urgent issues in the coming year.

this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪

jason: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." carol: join us every day on the radio at 2 p.m.-5 p.m. wall street time. you can also check us out on itunes and soundcloud. jason: and our mobile app. carol: startups have been spending more time on a questionable road to profitability. it is a luxury. here they come. jason: uber, lyft, slack all top a record-breaking lineup of 2019 listings.

tracking this lineup is our reporter, alex. alex: when you run the numbers, there hasn't been more than three companies that have a valuation of bigger than $10 billion since 2000, when palm pilot was listing. it has been a long time since we have had such a group of large companies, looking in the public market. carol: what are we talking about in terms of valuation for uber? >> they are valued at more than $70 billion. i think there should be a little bit of skepticism around those exact numbers. it gives you a decent range,

frankly huge. softbank mobile in japan is going public, may be the biggest deal ever. they are in that range. uber may be bigger than alibaba in terms of listings. carol: you mentioned we haven't seen three or four big tech companies go public in some time. you would have to go back to 1999 or 2000. alex: what some remember as the bubble days. the private funding environment in the u.s. has been so rife with cash, poured in from funds throwing money at these private startups.

they want the next big thing. now you have the likes of softbank and their $100 billion vision fund. they are writing multibillion dollar checks. companies have been able to get the capital they need to exist. when you think about why a company goes public, they want the visibility, they have the capital, or this is a good recruiting tool. they got the capital from the private markets. these are really sexy places to work for employees. that last bucket of visibility, they have that. this becomes about being mature and to run a mature company, you need to recruit this public market type of employees. jason: the softbank founder is also in the hot seat for the year ahead.

carol: also because his biggest investor in his $100 billion vision fund is saudi arabia. >> the visionary behind softbank. he was best known for killing it on alibaba. phenomenal investments. and gave his career him the credibility to come up with this new work and even more grandiose idea, a $100 billion vision fund that would invest in technology, internet technology, telecommunications, startups, with this idea he could build a cohesive set of investments that would span the technology universe. carol: he also has some outside money in this fund.

erik: $45 billion from the saudi arabia sovereign wealth fund and $15 billion from abu dhabi. just in the gulf, he raised the target. carol: let's go back to saudi arabia. an interesting relationship, considering everything that has gone on in the news. erik: it was only a number of weeks ago that jamal khashoggi, the saudi journalist self-exiled , critic of the kingdom, was murdered in the saudi consulate in turkey. the fact that he was murdered was indisputable. it has been established. who is responsible for that murder and possibly the assassination is a question mark. there is a lot of skepticism about that investigation.

the turks are pointing their fingers at the saudi crown prince, who they believe is most likely responsible. that is why there is this issue with masayoshi son and the vision fund, because of these closely backed ties to the crown prince. carol: but this has not changed the relationship. erik: on october 23, he backed out of davos in the desert. three-day conference presided over by the crown prince in riyadh. carol: we all talked about it. erik: son was there -- masayoshi son was there. it is a matter of public record. he was a keynote speaker. he was supposed to be a participant this year. because of the khashoggi killing, many high profile names had backed out.

october 23rd was the morning the conference was supposed to begin. at the very last minute, masayoshi son backed out. that raised questions about what sort of fallout there would be. would the saudi's backed out of a commitment from the vision fund? would that be press startup valuations? this was the kind of thinking engendered by that decision. two weeks transpired when no one knew what was going to happen. on november 5th, as he was reporting earnings at a press conference, masayoshi son put those concerns -- not the other concerns about who was responsible for the killing -- but the concerns of business to

rest by saying he had a responsibility to the saudi people. as a result, softbank could accept and invest saudi cash. jason: coming up, the most exciting new technologies in motorsports. more on the summit on november 28. jason: this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪

carol: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." jason: you can also listen to us on the radio on sirius xm, new york, boston, washington, dc -- carol: in the bay area and in london and on the bloomberg business app.

return to the year ahead in luxury. i sat down with someone at the bloomberg breakaway summit in london for a fascinating conversation. >> generations of young people demanding so much more than a scented candle. or an iphone. the world is saying, show me the world your product lives in. i want to hear its language. i want to see its color. hear the music. they are demanding that human touch. that feel of someone caring about you buying a product. it is easy to sell a million bottles. it is much harder to sell half a million to those same people. we build relationships.

jason: what i loved about that, jo malone knows to keep them coming back, you have to take it to the next level. formula e is kicking off its fifth racing season in saudi arabia. they are all about famous drivers, rivalries. the new all electric racing series, much of it is centered on the height, unique design and engineering of the cars. carol: here is our editor on that. >> formula e has been around for a few years. when it first started, people were not sure it was going to become popular. formula one has the roaring cars and the sexy drivers. formula e has really grown in popularity. they are starting a new season in december. they are using a new car. everyone uses the same car in the formula e. they developed a new one this year. they would run out of batteries

halfway through a race, previously. the driver would have to get in another car. now, the battery is strong enough and have enough storage that they can go for the whole 45 minute race. the cars look totally different, insane. they look like the batmobile. each company is allowed to trick it out a bit, but they are mostly the same car. we took a look at the car. carol: does it sound like a typical racecar? chris: it does not. our writer compares it to buzzing hornets. it has a whizzing sound. it is loud. they go on city streets so it's a bit more raw. it doesn't have that throaty roar. carol: how fast does this new version go? jason: it's capped out at 170 miles an hour.

that is not as fast as formula one but it can accelerate just as fast. carol: this sets the trend for what we might see in the rest of the world. the mass market ev. chris: some of this technology might make its way into mass market cars. we are far away from luxury cars being made for the mass market. but the more people think this is cool, the more they will expect it in their own cars. carol: talk to me about this trend of being able to do it in your home. chris: tonal make a screen, and two handles that attach to the dvice on the wall, an the -- and the resistance changes with the handle so you don't need all of that equipment.

it's incredible. carol: bloomberg businessweek is available on newsstands now. jason: the whole issue is a must read this week. it's the year ahead. carol: it sets the stage for 2019. jason: a novel idea about self-regulating the tech industry. carol: taking cues from the financial industry. jason: you talked to larry kudlow for this issue? carol: he thinks he can get the presidential agenda done. you spoke to johnson grade. -- gray. jason: the president of blackstone and i will have a conversation on stage at the november 28 conference. he was promoted to number two at

blackstone. he has big ideas about the economy and investing next year. carol: more bloomberg television starts right now. ♪

david: when you were a young boy, did you say i want to be chairman of the federal reserve board? you were called the maestro. alan: i always got too much of the credit. i was writing speeches in the bathtub. david: were you surprised at the criticism? alan: nobody forecast the 2008 crisis. david: do you see movement to solve the deficit and debt problem? alan: i see a lot of talk, but no realistic movement. >> would you fix your tie, please? david: well, people wouldn't recognize me if my tie was fixed, but ok. just leave it this way. alright. ♪