♪ carol: welcome to "bloomberg businessweek." i am carol massar. jason: i am jason kelly. we are in bloomberg's global headquarters. carol: this week, we have a special takeover issue. it is called the year ahead. it is a 365 degree look at the topics facing the business leaders in the coming year. it's all leading up to our summit hosted in new york city. we will be there. jason: we will be there.

big themes -- the global economy and more. carol: what to expect. we will also talk about trade war's and brexit and the slowdown in china. jason: plus a look at publicly , traded companies worth special attention in 2019. carol: and what is next for u.s. politics? it's never too early to start talking about 2020. jason: we are already talking about it a lot, which is why we start with josh green in washington, d.c., author of "the devil's bargain." in this week's "bloomberg story, the 2020 campaign for the presidency has begun, which makes things tricky for democrats. josh: we will have a big clash between trump and democrats who want -- won back the house. i'm looking at pressures that will fall on the democratic party. they have fought for two years in the minority. now, democrats have subpoena power.

they have oversight. they control the house. but that will bring pressure on the party. what you will see in 2019 is the party is being split into two factions. you will have the governing wing led by nancy pelosi in congress, and then you will have as many as two dozen or even more democratic presidential for thees jockeying hearts and minds of primary voters. it looks to me like those groups could go in different directions. carol: so it divides the party, makes it difficult? josh: it does. democrats have been saying, for two years, in congress, give us control, we will be a check on trump. that's largely why they got elected. talku look at exit polls, to strategists, people want them to govern responsibly. if you are a presidential candidate, you are not so worried about governing responsibly, you are worried about standing out from the crowd of presidential contenders. one way to do that is to be the

furthest to the left most , vocally anti-trump. so you have people like liberal activist tom steyer, who has already spent $100 million running cable ads saying we should impeach trump. that is a direction that the elected democrats in washington do not want to go. they think there will be a serious backlash to that. but people like steyer and michael avenatti want that attention. they want primary voters gravitating to their presidential candidacies. that puts pressures on the democratic party that they will have to grapple with in 2019. carol: you mention polls when it comes to the issues of putting forth impeachment proceedings against the president. you say all voters -- according to this poll, 51 percent oppose the idea of house democrats bringing impeachment proceedings. but if you look at democratic voters, they see it differently.

they want democrats to go after the president. josh: nancy pelosi has been out for the past couple of months -- any time you see someone saying if we went back the house, we should impeach trump but she says no. but a poll this morning showed only 33% of americans want to impeach trump. a majority do not want to impeach trump. but when you look at the subsample of only democrats, a majority of democrats do want to impeach trump, 61%. so pelosi will have to grapple with the fact that a lot of democratic voters want to rush to that extreme. this is the tight rope the democrats are going to have to walk in 2019. if they're not careful, they could turn around, lose the majority they just won. and in 2020, there is a second important election, whether or not trump has a second term. carol: turning to what is next for president trump in the year

ahead, trade. according to consensus among economists and investors, the biggest threat to the world economy in 2019 is an escalation of the u.s.-china trade war. time, at the same president trump is meeting with president xi in argentina later this month. here is reporter shawn donnan in d.c. with what we can expect. shawn: there is a best case and worst-case scenario. and what we see in the trade wars there. the best case scenario, what we are getting out of the white house, is some kind of cease-fire. it is okay, we've gone to war, let's pause. maybe we pause on tariffs, the $200 billion on products hit with tariffs in september. that was a 10% tariff. that's due to go up to 25% in january.

one possibility is the trump administration puts a pause on that in exchange for some kind of concession from the chinese. then you go into months and months of talks about complicated rings that dragged on, as trade negotiations do. the worst-case scenario is there is no cease-fire, and then we go into january and the guns are blazing. you go up to 25% on the previously mentioned $200 billion in trade. in the president has already started talking about another big whack, which is $257 billion. basically all of the trade that is remaining that could be hit by tariffs in the coming year. so at the g20, hugely important meeting, it will set the stage for 2019. jason: so what are we to make of what the president of the united states said, coming out of this long phone call he had with president xi of china? he seemed optimistic. the markets rallied a little bit

on that perceived optimism. is there something there? is this rhetoric? shawn: one of the things we have about president trump is always pay attention to the last person he talks to. so he always comes out of a meeting with xi or conversation with xi optimistic about the possibility of doing a deal. then he kind of huddles with his advisers. among his advisers are the pro-deal crowd -- steve mnuchin and larry kudlow. on the wall street side of things, you think you do not want to upset markets. they are worried about the potential for a trade war that gets out of hand. and then you have the china peter navarro and bob lighthizer, who think the u.s. is fighting an epochal battle. that this is about the existential future of the u.s. economy. jason: you mentioned bob

lighthizer. are there any lessons to be drawn from the nafta negotiations here? anything about the u.s.'s posture or even its negotiating style that we can draw from going forward? shawn: i think china is different, just in terms of size and scale of the problem, and also the view here in washington, on both sides of congress, that it is a problem and that it needs to be -- that the u.s. needs to get tough. that's a different story. but at the same time, remember we had a lot of bluster going into these nafta negotiations. and you came out with something -- there were some interesting tweaks. this was really a tweaked trade agreement rather than a revolutionized trade agreement. jason: still ahead, the global economy in 2019. will it squeeze out another good year? carol: good question. plus brexit aftermath. , when the headlines fade, bank of england governor mark carney will be in the hot seat.

to repair the economic damage. jason: this is part of the special issue on the year ahead, we will speak with industry leaders on the most urgent topics in the coming year. carol: this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪

carol: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." i am carol massar. jason: i am jason kelly. every day for me "bloomberg businessweek" on the radio at 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. wall street time. carol: you can also find us online and on the mobile app. in the year ahead, global growth should be strong in 2019. but that growth may be a bit more imbalanced. jason: and rising interest rates and tariffs in the u.s. could make for trouble. forught up with peter coy

his intro to our special year ahead issue. peter: there are so many things to worry about. the crazy stock market, trade tensions, and so on. we, journalists, and even the public tends to worry, what is going to happen next? it feels like a roller coaster. but if you actually got performance of the global economy, according to the international monetary fund it's , been remarkably steady. we had 3.7% growth in 2017, and we are looking for the exact same number in 2019, for good, solid, steady growth. jason: but one of the reasons people worry, i point out -- i should point out is because it , has been so good for so long. isn't that part of the reason, as humans, we think this cannot last forever?

peter: the u.s. is the most interesting case. first of all, it is the biggest economy in the world and it influences what happens elsewhere. the u.s. economy, if it gets past june, 2019, still growing, will be the longest expansion in u.s. history, going back to 1857. now it has not been a strong recovery, but just really steady. like a tortoise. jason: but the duration has been unprecedented. peter: if we make it. to.we are expected if the u.s. continues to grow well -- better than europe and japan -- that will help pull along the rest of the world. and that's the reason the imf is pegging another 3.7% global growth, just because you have that engine of the u.s. pulling in imports from around the

world. jason: let's talk about the u.s. versus the rest of the world. because we have this -- if carol were here, she would talk about synchronized global growth. and whether that is a real thing. whether it was a real thing and is not anymore. peter: it is less of a real thing in the sense that the u.s. has been outpacing a lot of the other rich countries. it is farther along in tightening financial conditions because of the worry that the economy is so strong, it is at risk of overheating and becoming inflationary. so what happens when you raise your interest rates? you pull in money from elsewhere. so that is one of the downsides, actually, of the strong u.s. growth. there are certain countries that are quite vulnerable to that. argentina and turkey are obvious examples. if jay powell, the chairman of the fed, raises the federal funds rate in the u.s. and the entire range of rates goes up in

, global investors pull money out of the weaker developing markets, which need the money, because they are running on a deficit. they need the constant inflow of foreign capital. the only way they can respond is by then driving their interest rates up to punishingly high levels, which hurts their economy. it is like a catch 22 for them. jason: what do you think will happen? peter: i thing there will be some of that. there will be constant pressure on these weaker developing nations. when the u.s. is pulling in money, it is also pulling in goods and services. the u.s. runs bigger trade deficits. who does not like that? a lot of people don't like that. especially the man in the white house. jason: there is one person who we know -- his tweeter feed -- twitter feed does not like that. who do we expect

trump to blame? he tends to perceive these countries that have a trade surplus with the united states as a sign of malfeasance. jason: that somebody is trying to get away with something, and he is trying to stop it. peter: right. so what do you do? you erect higher trade barriers to stop that from happening. the fact of the u.s. is growing, which is a positive, could result in stronger trade frictions in 2019. carol: trade, brexit, and a slowdown in china are just some of the issues that could impact the economy in 2019. jason: here is joel weber on how he put together bloomberg's special issue on the year ahead. joel: it is all about the future. what does the future hold? we can only make educated guesses. when we looked at our crystal ball, which looks like data we

, were able to break it out to the themes you see. these are the things we felt that people will be talking about for all of the year. carol: in one of the things we talked a lot about in 2018 was china. we will continue talking about it in 2019. joel: it is a big country. the element we wanted to talk about was slow down. when you look at the numbers, something happening. carol: this is something we do not normally talk about when it comes to china. we usually talk about growth. joel: growth, growth, growth. the government is trying to grapple with the shift. we have seen it with the stock market there. which is really cool down. at the same time, there is a lot of debt there, which could lead people to believe there is another variable, which could have consequences for the global economy. carol: it is interesting to see what the implications will be. joel: it is one of those stories we will hear week in and week out in 2019. carol: brexit kept us busy this year and will next year. joel: it will absolutely.

because there is a deadline. there will be an outcome by that deadline. we do not know what it will be yet, but something will happen. the other consequence of this is what it means to the rest of europe. story, bute brexit what are the ramifications for the continent and the politics seeing -- scene? they are drifting towards the right. now you see macron pushing back on the left. all of europe has this reckoning. because of brexit, will there be more referendums, like u.k.? or will it be more harmonized? carol: i came back from an event in london. there were a lot of business people. they were polled about it, what they thought about brexit, would it a crash landing? most. we will figure something out, and that there will not be a ton of things that will change. joel: this is a topic that we

know will define the year. carol: what is interesting that this issue is it is a wonderful lead up to what we do at bloomberg. joel: it is a franchise moment in the year ahead. we have a conference here. there will be one in tokyo. i will be at the one in tokyo. it brings business leaders together to talk about these trends. carol: coming up, the juiciest and is up for l grabs. mario draghi will end his eight-year term as the president of the european central bank. jason: and more from bloomberg's special look at the year ahead and the top companies we are keeping an eye on. carol: this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪

jason: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." i am jason kelly. carol: i am carol massar. you can listen to us on the the radio on sirius xm channel 119, and in new york, boston,

washington, d.c. -- jason: and in london and on the "bloomberg businessweek" app. carol: in this week's special issue, we turn to the economics section and the european central bank. mario draghi is in his final stretch. ends his term as president of the ecb, he may do something he has never done before -- raise interest rates. jason: undoing more than half a decade of stimulus might come just before his exit at the end of october. here is cristina lindblad. cristina: one of the most anticipated things is the end of mario draghi's term, which happens at the end of october of next year. he will be in that position for eight years by that time. he has not raised rates once in

that time. and he actually began by lowering them. so we anticipate that, by that point, at the end of his term, what people are looking at now is what is going on in italy, forh is an embarrassment draghi, because it is italian, but basically rome is having a fight with brussels over its deficit targets in the budget. so if that explodes, if that rekindles fears about a debt crisis in europe, all bets about an interest rate increase are going to be off. carol: but mario draghi -- being head of european central bank, in the story, it says it is one of the juiciest stories in your land. cristina: it's a powerful stepping stone. one of the things that draghi proved -- there is a governing council of 24 people on it. basically, it includes all of the central bank presidents from the countries that use the euro. this is not athat

council of equals, that he definitely exerted a lot of power and was able to quell some of the rebellions going on inside, notably from germany and some other countries, opposed this huge bond buying program that he started. so he proved that he was able to exert pressure. he used different tactics, and he got his way. this is why all investors are looking at who will fill his shoes. carol: is there any speculation about who might fill his shoes? cristina: well, we know it will be a central banker. most likely -- now that there are a couple of candidates knocked out of the race -- and it is most likely going to be from a country that can say it is in northern europe. that includes france. because it is sort of not a formal but an alternation of power from north to south. carol: speaking of tests, you have to talk about what is still going on in the u.k.

they are still trying to figure out the terms for brexit. it is still ongoing. bank governor mark carney, what kind of predicaments he find himself in? cristina: there is no playbook for the situation that the bank of england faces next year. we saw a bit of a preview after the referendum, the international reaction. there was a drop in the pound. a small market panic initially. so if there is not a deal that specifies some sort of transition, i think, by the time the march 2019 deadline rolls around, i think that the bank of england will be a sort of first responder in any crisis that happens then. so it will have to -- carol: so the economy starts to wobble in the u.k., he made have to cut rates or something? cristina: it will be difficult,

because he will need to raise rates if -- he will raise rates if he needs to shore up the pound. he will have to take different tools to stimulate the economy. while, at the same time, shoring up the pound. it is going to be a difficult test. on the other hand, if there is a deal and things go smoothly, then he may have to raise rates, because the economy may need to be -- inflation pressures may need to be tamped down. carol: and he is due to step down in 2020? cristina: his term has been extended twice. is due to step down in 2020. he may not. carol: we shall see. jason: coming up, cars and cannabis in the year ahead. carol: plus, mega listings -- investors expect more ipo's in any year the century. jason: it is part of our special issue, the year ahead. a special lead up to our year ahead summit. we will be speaking with industry leaders on the most urgent topics in the coming year.

that is all day on november 28. carol: this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪

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that's $150 off the mattress, plus a free pillow - and free shipping too. go to buyleesa.com today. you need this bed. ♪ >> welcome back to bloomberg businessweek. >> still ahead in this week's special issue, the year ahead. people in 2019. the $100 billion business fund and idea. >> speaking of ipo, 2019 is expected to be a mega year for mega listings. >> but first, the companies to watch in the year ahead.

with bloomberg intelligence and bloomberg world of data for nearly 2000 companies. >> for more on other companies that made the cut, we caught up with the editor behind the list. it's a list, not a writing, but it's an interesting list. i encourage people because lists can be offputting but if you >> dig into this one, you will learn a lot. it's alphabetical, not a ranking. energy companies, they pop up on this list. >> not surprisingly. every year, we see a new batch. several >>we have $23 billion acquisitions. ago, just about a month

that introduces several factors that are worthy of attention. it's a reminder, we spend so much time thinking about the companies that are disrupting our world, high tech. and rightfully so. it's a reminder that things like energy companies are still here, they still are a big player globally and there's a lot of reasons. >> exactly. those are the reliable companies year after year. dutch >> speaking of changes, we saw a bunch of that going on in 2018. board as a company we are -- where restructuring is still the story next year. >> exactly. board is one of these company that has been on the list for a few years in a row. when we have those repeats, we stop and we say, has the story fundamentally changed? should be included again? the consensus among our analysts and our fabulous, very experienced reporters covering day in and day out in detroit,

is, yes, there is a lot of pressure right now on hacking. this restructuring plan is not quite delivering as quickly as in structures -- investors might like. the focus that many other companies might have, they are putting a lot of stock, no pun intended, into their suv and pickup trucks. moving away from the sedan. their interest in the sedan is not what it used to be. they are playing catch-up. they are developing an autonomous vehicle for groceries. will this fundamentally bring about the changes investors are looking at? the ceo is not one of ours to watch, but he is still under a bit of pressure.

carol: cannabis industry we've talked about this year. dimitra: one of our sections focused on cannabis about a month ago. that was on the eve of canada legalizing it recreationally. one of our companies on our list is canopy. it's doing really well. it's a canadian company. we also have a tobacco company that is seriously moving into cannabis because of the opportunities there. carol: the cannabis industry is growing big time. we have the world's largest cannabis producer. we have a chart. canopy, we talk about growth, almost 557%.

these numbers are off the charts. jason: is this translating into the stock price? yes. for more, let's go to taylor riggs. we count on you for complicated charts. this is pretty straightforward. taylor: the bloomberg terminal is great for everything. over the last year, the stock is really picking up. you have almost 200% returns over the last year. share growth, recently 30%. 87% is another story.

marijuana has started to become more socially acceptable. carol: it's amazing the run this stock has had. jason: thanks. carol: runs like that is why canopy growth is one of our 50 companies to watch. jason: here is our editor, jim ellis. jim: the big driver has been legalization in canada. you saw constellation brands, the company that makes corona. it started with a small investment of $150 million, and now its invested $3 billion in a big cannabis company. the real money in this is going

to be putting cannabis in as an ingredient. that will take off. canada so far, only allows you to smoke it. it will allow you to put it inside edibles next year. carol: in china, we talk about what american manufacturers are doing. jim: it's the biggest market for electric vehicles, and cars. the way the u.s. used to drive the global auto market, china is doing that in the future. in january, they are adopting a system on emissions. to get them down, you will have to have what is called new

energy vehicles, and a certain percentage of output that's the cars you import into china -- they have to be that way. if you don't have that, you have to buy credits from other companies that have extra credits, like tesla. all of the global automakers are saying, i will commit to more electric vehicles, because i have to do it for china. california sets rules for emissions because it isn't so big. it forces those companies to green the rest of the u.s. carol: another hot topic is diversity, impacting global businesses in the year ahead. we talked to someone at the global diversity summit in london this past week who said diversity is good for business.

>> in running our business, we probably pour over the numbers from a diversity point of view. we really make this an objective to achieve. jason: still ahead, uber and lyft and slack are done with waiting to go public. they top a record-breaking lineup of 2019 listings. carol: we will be speaking with industry leaders at our year ahead summit on the most urgent issues in the coming year.

this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪

jason: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." carol: join us every day on the radio at 2:00 p.m. to 5:0 p.m. wall street time. you can also check us out on itunes and soundcloud. jason: and our mobile app. carol: startups have been spending more time on a questionable road to profitability. it's a luxury that has kept investors waiting a long time. jason: uber, lyft, slack all top a record-breaking lineup of 2019 listings. the most american tech mega listings of any year this

century. tracking this lineup is our reporter, alex. alex: when you run the numbers, there hasn't been more than three companies that have a valuation of bigger than $10 billion since 2000, when palm pilot was listing. or the at&t mobile service system. it has been a long time since we have had such a group of large companies, looking in the public market. carol: what are we talking about in terms of valuation for uber? alex: their valued at more than $70 billion. in private funding rounds. i think there should be a little bit of skepticism around those exact numbers. it gives you a decent range,

frankly huge. softbank mobile in japan is going public, may be the biggest deal ever. they are in that range. uber may be bigger than alibaba in terms of listings. carol: you mentioned we haven't seen three or four big tech companies go public in some time. you would have to go back to 1999 or 2000. alex: what some remember as the bubble days. the private funding environment has been so rife with cash, poured in from funds throwing money at these private startups. now you have the likes of

softbank and their $100 billion vision fund. companies have been able to get the capital they need to exist. when you think about why a company goes public, they want the visibility, they have the capital, or this is a good recruiting tool. they got the capital from the private markets. these are really sexy places to work for employees. that last bucket of visibility, they have that. this becomes about being mature and to run a mature company, you need to recruit this public listing. jason: the softbank founder is also in the hot seat for the year ahead. carol: also because his biggest investor in his $100 billion vision fund is saudi arabia.

>> he was best known for killing it on alibaba. they made his career. they gave him the credibility to come up with this new work and even more grandiose idea, a $100 billion vision fund that would invest in technology, internet technology, telecommunications, startups, with this idea he could build a cohesive set of investments that would span the technology universe. carol: he also has some outside money in this fund. erik: $45 billion from the saudi arabia sovereign wealth fund and

$15 billion from abu dhabi. carol: let's go back to saudi arabia. an interesting relationship, considering everything that has gone on in the news. erik: it was only a number of weeks ago that jamal khashoggi, the saudi journalist self-exiled , critic of the kingdom, was murdered in the saudi consulate in turkey. the fact that he was murdered has been established. who is responsible for that murder and possibly the assassination is a question mark. there is a lot of skepticism about that investigation. the turks are pointing their

fingers at the saudi crown prince, who they believe is most likely responsible. that is why there is this issue with masayoshi son and the vision fund, because of these closely backed ties to the crown prince. carol: but this has not changed the relationship. erik: on october 23, he backed out of davos in the desert. carol: everyone was there a year ago. you can't imagine the names. you can, of course, it's a matter of public record. masayoshi son was there. he was supposed to be a participant this year. because of the khashoggi killing, many high profile names had backed out.

october 23rd was the morning the conference was supposed to begin. at the very last minute, masayoshi son backed out. that raised questions about what sort of fallout there would be. would the saudis back out of the vision fund? if that happened, would the vision fund have consequently less money to go around at the start of valuations? this was the kind of thinking engendered by that decision. two weeks transpired when no one knew what was going to happen. on november 5th, as he was reporting earnings at a press conference, masayoshi son put those concerns to rest by saying he had a responsibility to the

saudi people. as a result, softbank could accept and invest saudi cash. jason: coming up, the most exciting new technologies in motorsports. carol: and more on our year ahead summit on november 28. jason: this is "bloomberg businessweek." ♪

carol: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." jason: you can also listen to us on the radio on sirius xm, new jenna 119, york, boston, washington, d.c. -- >> in the bay area and in london

and on the bloomberg business app. i sat down with someone at the bloomberg breakaway summit in london for a fascinating conversation. ofwe are seeing generations young people demanding so much more than just a scented candle and a pair of running shoes or an iphone. the whole world is demanding and the consumer is saying, educate me, entertainment. show me the world that your product lives in, i want to hear its language. i want to see the color, here the music. they are demanding so much more. it goes back to what we are talking about, that human approach. that feel of somebody caring about you buying a product. because it's easy to sell a million models, it is. it is much harder to sell half a million to those same people. do we do it? we build relationships.

jason: what i loved about that, jo malone knows to keep them coming back, you have to take it to the next level. formula e is kicking off its fifth racing season in saudi arabia. you think about formula one, all rivalries,rs, making the new all electric racing series, much of it is centered on the unique design and the engineering of the cars themselves. >> formula e has been around for a few years. people were not sure it was going to become popular. formula e has really grown in popularity. it's the sexy drivers, it's a whole thing. they are starting a new season in december. this time, they are using a new car. everyone uses the same car in the formula e. they develop a new one this year because previously they would

, run out of batteries halfway through a race, previously. now, the battery is strong enough it can go for the whole 45 minute race. the cars look totally different, insane. they look like the batmobile. each company is allowed to trick it out a bit, but they are mostly the same car. carol: does it some like a typical racecar? chris: it does not. our writer compares it to buzzing hornets. it has a whizzing sound. it is loud. it's a bit more raw. it doesn't have that throaty roar. carol: how fast does this new version go? jason: it's capped out at 170 miles an hour.

that's not as fast as the formula one cars. do we care about this? it's not going to show up in my driveway, but this sets the trend for what we might see in the rest of the world. chris: some of this technology might make its way into mass market cars. we are far away from luxury cars being made for the mass market. but the more people think this is cool, the more they will expected in their own cars. carol: a really cool car, also a cool way of working out this trend of eating able to do it in your home. talk to me about that. chris: tonal makes a screen, and two handles that attach to the device on the wall, and the resistance changes with the handle so you don't need all of that equipment. it's incredible. carol: "bloomberg businessweek"

is available on newsstands now. jason: the whole issue is a must read this week. it's the year ahead. we have a novel idea about self-regulating the tech industry. carol: taking cues from the financial industry. jason: you talked to larry kudlow for this issue? carol: he thinks he can get the presidential agenda done. jason: the president of blackstone and i will have a conversation on stage at the november 28 conference. he has big ideas about the economy and investing next year. carol: more bloomberg television

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nejra: jpmorgan's's secret punishment. america's biggest bank was shackled by washington for years after the crisis. bloomberg has learned about the restrictions. different sizes, different rules. the fed proposes a softer oversight regime for all but the biggest u.s. banks. and who is investing sustainably? a new survey says high net worth millennials are putting the most cash into esg investments. could regulation help? welcome to "bloomberg markets: rules and returns." i'm nejra cehic in london. rules and returns is the show where we delve into the regulatory challenges and r